• MOST of the trends of the future didn't happen

    From Ogg@VERT/EOTLBBS to All on Sat Sep 26 12:54:00 2020
    Hello Dennisk!

    ** On Saturday 26.09.20 - 07:34, dennisk wrote to Andeddu:

    ...By the way, notice how that futurists are never
    challenged decades later? I would say MOST of the trends of
    the future didn't happen, or didn't have the effect that
    people foresaw.

    Yes.. that is so true. I get frustrated with people who
    listen to self-prophesing seers who have predictions of the
    future.. and when that time in the future arrives and is
    unfulfilled no one challenges the original source of the
    claim.


    There will be large cities in the future, but they won't be
    the delightful, efficient utopias we thought, not will the
    be a model of the future. They will be the unfortunate
    legacy of a past that we can't quite get rid of yet.

    Stick around. We will be sure to challenge your predictions!
    ;) But your vision/opinion was very broad and general.

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  • From Dennisk@VERT/EOTLBBS to Ogg on Sun Sep 13 23:55:00 2020
    Ogg wrote to All <=-

    Hello Dennisk!

    ** On Saturday 26.09.20 - 07:34, dennisk wrote to Andeddu:

    ...By the way, notice how that futurists are never
    challenged decades later? I would say MOST of the trends of
    the future didn't happen, or didn't have the effect that
    people foresaw.

    Yes.. that is so true. I get frustrated with people who
    listen to self-prophesing seers who have predictions of the
    future.. and when that time in the future arrives and is
    unfulfilled no one challenges the original source of the
    claim.


    There will be large cities in the future, but they won't be
    the delightful, efficient utopias we thought, not will the
    be a model of the future. They will be the unfortunate
    legacy of a past that we can't quite get rid of yet.

    Stick around. We will be sure to challenge your predictions!
    Og> ;) But your vision/opinion was very broad and general.

    I'm not going to be bold as to predict specifics, I'm not sure. But I
    can see cities in decline as we speak. If in 2030, a young man and woman
    have a better change of living in a city, getting a good secure job,
    buying a house, having a local community they belong to and are able to
    travel around the city easily, than what the Boomers
    had, I'll eat a sock.


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  • From hollowone@VERT/AMIGAC to Dennisk on Mon Sep 28 00:53:00 2020
    I'm not going to be bold as to predict specifics, I'm not sure. But I
    can see cities in decline as we speak. If in 2030, a young man and
    woman have a better change of living in a city, getting a good secure
    job, buying a house, having a local community they belong to and are
    able to travel around the city easily, than what the Boomers
    had, I'll eat a sock.

    1M + cities will be always attractive to young people seeking for relatively easier way to jump into a professional, adult's life band wagon.
    And also to find its kin. But then comes the price that people don't realize initially when they move into big cities which is general cost of life and the magical decision of mortgage to purchase your own place, decent.

    Then you're sucked into this dollar making machine of working hard and dehumanizing yourself even more only to pay your debts.
    Around 40ties when you're in the middle of the journey and you finally regained financial stability that helps you relalize sometimes that all that was nonsense and your paradise on Earth is somewhere else.

    This is what I've done. Moved 50km from my big city's center. I'm there only 2 days a week to catch up with the office and I've been doing that even before COVID. the rest is my calmed down neighbourhood with a nice lake view and life balance.

    And ocassionally when I want to have beer with my city-pals I still am within the reach of Uber service which I can easily afford. Especially considering that such a wish for a beer so far away from my place is just an exercise driven 5 times a year.

    Of course this is personalizing, everybody is different, but that's why we have the diversity of places.. and because quite often we want both.. that's also why we have big cities sprawling vastly with their suburbs.

    /h1
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  • From Dennisk@VERT/EOTLBBS to hollowone on Tue Sep 29 05:44:00 2020
    hollowone wrote to Dennisk <=-

    I'm not going to be bold as to predict specifics, I'm not sure. But I
    can see cities in decline as we speak. If in 2030, a young man and
    woman have a better change of living in a city, getting a good secure
    job, buying a house, having a local community they belong to and are
    able to travel around the city easily, than what the Boomers
    had, I'll eat a sock.

    1M + cities will be always attractive to young people seeking for relatively easier way to jump into a professional, adult's life band wagon. And also to find its kin. But then comes the price that people don't realize initially when they move into big cities which is general cost of life and the magical decision of mortgage to purchase your own place, decent.

    Then you're sucked into this dollar making machine of working hard and dehumanizing yourself even more only to pay your debts.
    Around 40ties when you're in the middle of the journey and you finally regained financial stability that helps you relalize sometimes that all that was nonsense and your paradise on Earth is somewhere else.

    This is what I've done. Moved 50km from my big city's center. I'm there only 2 days a week to catch up with the office and I've been doing that even before COVID. the rest is my calmed down neighbourhood with a nice lake view and life balance.

    And ocassionally when I want to have beer with my city-pals I still am within the reach of Uber service which I can easily afford. Especially considering that such a wish for a beer so far away from my place is
    just an exercise driven 5 times a year.

    Of course this is personalizing, everybody is different, but that's why
    we have the diversity of places.. and because quite often we want
    both.. that's also why we have big cities sprawling vastly with their suburbs.

    1 - 2 million is a good size for a city, even 3 or so. Where it becomes unmanageable is when you can no longer feasibly traverse the city freely. Melbourne is like that. If I wanted to visit a relative or friend on the other side, and not even at the far end, you have to make it a day trip, because it takes sooo long because of distance and traffic. You can't live on one side and work on the other, it takes way too long to traverse. That is when it is too big. It's no longer a functional unit, its grown beyond a manageable scale, and it leads to division. Now, that limit will vary from city to city depending on transport, geography, density, etc. But nowhere in the city should be "too far" for an activity to not be feasible, or where people from one part start to get cut off from another, and no, I don't consider over an hour to get to the center OK, not unless you are walking.

    If people want to live where you live, that is fine, I don't live close to the center myself. I live in what is kind of a satellite town, but oddly, its closer to the centre than some of Melbournes outer suburbs, because the urban sprawl hasn't headed my way yet due to geography and the airport. I would like to be closer, but housing is so damn expensive and I don't want to sacrifice everything for a mega-mortgage.

    Australia seems culturally different to the USA in this regard. In the USA, it seems young people move a lot from city to city. It seems almost the norm to grow up somewhere, and move to the city. It's not as common here. Partly because more people are already in the big cities, that is, we are more urbanised, and more likely to go to uni and spend our adult life in the same city.



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  • From poindexter FORTRAN@VERT/REALITY to hollowone on Tue Sep 29 13:13:00 2020
    hollowone wrote to Dennisk <=-

    This is what I've done. Moved 50km from my big city's center. I'm there only 2 days a week to catch up with the office and I've been doing that even before COVID. the rest is my calmed down neighbourhood with a nice lake view and life balance.

    Yeah, I'm on the California central coast with a hill between me and
    Silicon Valley. My normal commute is between an hour and an hour and
    a half. I don't mind the drive when I come home to a laid-back beach
    town and an ocean view.

    My wife and I were debating between moving here and moving closer to
    work. Stressed out people, real estate cost twice as much, and
    traffic was becoming a nightmare.

    Now that we're both WFH 4 days a week, I think the bet paid off.




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  • From hollowone@VERT/AMIGAC to Dennisk on Wed Sep 30 02:10:00 2020
    1 - 2 million is a good size for a city, even 3 or so. Where it
    becomes unmanageable is when you can no longer feasibly traverse the
    city freely. Melbourne is like that. If I wanted to visit a relative
    or friend on the other side, and not even at the far end, you have to
    make it a day trip, because it takes sooo long because of distance and traffic. You can't live on one side and work on the other, it takes
    way too long to traverse. That is when it is too big. It's no longer
    a functional unit, its grown beyond a manageable scale, and it leads to division. Now, that limit will vary from city to city depending on transport, geography, density, etc. But nowhere in the city should be "too far" for an activity to not be feasible, or where people from one part start to get cut off from another, and no, I don't consider over
    an hour to get to the center OK, not unless you are walking.


    I think that is not related to size of the city or population but how mass transit is organized, which at some point must be efficiently based on the train system.

    This is what we're building here in Warsaw, unless that's organized the way it should we have traffic like in Instabul and problems you described above.

    While I find London quite efficient to commute even tho the city is 4 times bigger than mine.

    cars driven by individuals as the lifestyle is great if you live in a metro area smaller than a million and smaller than a square with 15km long side of
    t.

    /h1
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  • From Dennisk@VERT/EOTLBBS to hollowone on Wed Sep 30 05:53:00 2020
    hollowone wrote to Dennisk <=-

    1 - 2 million is a good size for a city, even 3 or so. Where it
    becomes unmanageable is when you can no longer feasibly traverse the
    city freely. Melbourne is like that. If I wanted to visit a relative
    or friend on the other side, and not even at the far end, you have to
    make it a day trip, because it takes sooo long because of distance and traffic. You can't live on one side and work on the other, it takes
    way too long to traverse. That is when it is too big. It's no longer
    a functional unit, its grown beyond a manageable scale, and it leads to division. Now, that limit will vary from city to city depending on transport, geography, density, etc. But nowhere in the city should be "too far" for an activity to not be feasible, or where people from one part start to get cut off from another, and no, I don't consider over
    an hour to get to the center OK, not unless you are walking.


    I think that is not related to size of the city or population but how
    mass transit is organized, which at some point must be efficiently
    based on the train system.

    This is what we're building here in Warsaw, unless that's organized the way it should we have traffic like in Instabul and problems you
    described above.

    While I find London quite efficient to commute even tho the city is 4 times bigger than mine.

    cars driven by individuals as the lifestyle is great if you live in a metro area smaller than a million and smaller than a square with 15km
    long side of t.

    My city has basic mass transit, and is modelled more like Los Angeles, urban sprawl, freeways. Melbourne is expanding purely to give Property Developers easy cash. They plonk down shitty suburbs that are desolate and have the charm of a nuclear reactor, then move on. There is little planning or any sense of cohesiveness. It's a wierd hodge podge of apartment towers next to cottage houses, standard suburban blocks each with three bunkers running from the street back, that they call "townhouses". London does have good transport, as do many European cities. When I went to Europe I was pleasantly surprised how efficient and usable it is. I could travel within cities with the train, bus quickly, and people I knew barely needed a car.


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  • From hollowone@VERT/AMIGAC to poindexter FORTRAN on Wed Sep 30 14:46:00 2020
    poindexter FORTRAN wrote to hollowone <=-

    hollowone wrote to Dennisk <=-

    This is what I've done. Moved 50km from my big city's center. I'm there only 2 days a week to catch up with the office and I've been doing that even before COVID. the rest is my calmed down neighbourhood with a nice lake view and life balance.

    Yeah, I'm on the California central coast with a hill between me and
    Silicon Valley. My normal commute is between an hour and an hour and
    a half. I don't mind the drive when I come home to a laid-back beach
    town and an ocean view.

    My wife and I were debating between moving here and moving closer to
    work. Stressed out people, real estate cost twice as much, and
    traffic was becoming a nightmare.

    Now that we're both WFH 4 days a week, I think the bet paid off.

    That was exactly my motivation ;-) fingers crossed for not being enforced to reconsider!

    /h1
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