...By the way, notice how that futurists are never
challenged decades later? I would say MOST of the trends of
the future didn't happen, or didn't have the effect that
people foresaw.
There will be large cities in the future, but they won't be
the delightful, efficient utopias we thought, not will the
be a model of the future. They will be the unfortunate
legacy of a past that we can't quite get rid of yet.
Ogg wrote to All <=-
Hello Dennisk!
** On Saturday 26.09.20 - 07:34, dennisk wrote to Andeddu:
...By the way, notice how that futurists are never
challenged decades later? I would say MOST of the trends of
the future didn't happen, or didn't have the effect that
people foresaw.
Yes.. that is so true. I get frustrated with people who
listen to self-prophesing seers who have predictions of the
future.. and when that time in the future arrives and is
unfulfilled no one challenges the original source of the
claim.
There will be large cities in the future, but they won't beOg> ;) But your vision/opinion was very broad and general.
the delightful, efficient utopias we thought, not will the
be a model of the future. They will be the unfortunate
legacy of a past that we can't quite get rid of yet.
Stick around. We will be sure to challenge your predictions!
I'm not going to be bold as to predict specifics, I'm not sure. But I
can see cities in decline as we speak. If in 2030, a young man and
woman have a better change of living in a city, getting a good secure
job, buying a house, having a local community they belong to and are
able to travel around the city easily, than what the Boomers
had, I'll eat a sock.
hollowone wrote to Dennisk <=-
I'm not going to be bold as to predict specifics, I'm not sure. But I
can see cities in decline as we speak. If in 2030, a young man and
woman have a better change of living in a city, getting a good secure
job, buying a house, having a local community they belong to and are
able to travel around the city easily, than what the Boomers
had, I'll eat a sock.
1M + cities will be always attractive to young people seeking for relatively easier way to jump into a professional, adult's life band wagon. And also to find its kin. But then comes the price that people don't realize initially when they move into big cities which is general cost of life and the magical decision of mortgage to purchase your own place, decent.
Then you're sucked into this dollar making machine of working hard and dehumanizing yourself even more only to pay your debts.
Around 40ties when you're in the middle of the journey and you finally regained financial stability that helps you relalize sometimes that all that was nonsense and your paradise on Earth is somewhere else.
This is what I've done. Moved 50km from my big city's center. I'm there only 2 days a week to catch up with the office and I've been doing that even before COVID. the rest is my calmed down neighbourhood with a nice lake view and life balance.
And ocassionally when I want to have beer with my city-pals I still am within the reach of Uber service which I can easily afford. Especially considering that such a wish for a beer so far away from my place is
just an exercise driven 5 times a year.
Of course this is personalizing, everybody is different, but that's why
we have the diversity of places.. and because quite often we want
both.. that's also why we have big cities sprawling vastly with their suburbs.
hollowone wrote to Dennisk <=-
This is what I've done. Moved 50km from my big city's center. I'm there only 2 days a week to catch up with the office and I've been doing that even before COVID. the rest is my calmed down neighbourhood with a nice lake view and life balance.
1 - 2 million is a good size for a city, even 3 or so. Where it
becomes unmanageable is when you can no longer feasibly traverse the
city freely. Melbourne is like that. If I wanted to visit a relative
or friend on the other side, and not even at the far end, you have to
make it a day trip, because it takes sooo long because of distance and traffic. You can't live on one side and work on the other, it takes
way too long to traverse. That is when it is too big. It's no longer
a functional unit, its grown beyond a manageable scale, and it leads to division. Now, that limit will vary from city to city depending on transport, geography, density, etc. But nowhere in the city should be "too far" for an activity to not be feasible, or where people from one part start to get cut off from another, and no, I don't consider over
an hour to get to the center OK, not unless you are walking.
hollowone wrote to Dennisk <=-
1 - 2 million is a good size for a city, even 3 or so. Where it
becomes unmanageable is when you can no longer feasibly traverse the
city freely. Melbourne is like that. If I wanted to visit a relative
or friend on the other side, and not even at the far end, you have to
make it a day trip, because it takes sooo long because of distance and traffic. You can't live on one side and work on the other, it takes
way too long to traverse. That is when it is too big. It's no longer
a functional unit, its grown beyond a manageable scale, and it leads to division. Now, that limit will vary from city to city depending on transport, geography, density, etc. But nowhere in the city should be "too far" for an activity to not be feasible, or where people from one part start to get cut off from another, and no, I don't consider over
an hour to get to the center OK, not unless you are walking.
I think that is not related to size of the city or population but how
mass transit is organized, which at some point must be efficiently
based on the train system.
This is what we're building here in Warsaw, unless that's organized the way it should we have traffic like in Instabul and problems you
described above.
While I find London quite efficient to commute even tho the city is 4 times bigger than mine.
cars driven by individuals as the lifestyle is great if you live in a metro area smaller than a million and smaller than a square with 15km
long side of t.
poindexter FORTRAN wrote to hollowone <=-
hollowone wrote to Dennisk <=-
This is what I've done. Moved 50km from my big city's center. I'm there only 2 days a week to catch up with the office and I've been doing that even before COVID. the rest is my calmed down neighbourhood with a nice lake view and life balance.
Yeah, I'm on the California central coast with a hill between me and
Silicon Valley. My normal commute is between an hour and an hour and
a half. I don't mind the drive when I come home to a laid-back beach
town and an ocean view.
My wife and I were debating between moving here and moving closer to
work. Stressed out people, real estate cost twice as much, and
traffic was becoming a nightmare.
Now that we're both WFH 4 days a week, I think the bet paid off.
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