• The K7RA Solar Update

    From ARRL de K6BSD@VERT/WLARB to QST on Wed Dec 16 15:25:50 2015
    12/11/2015

    Australia's Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic warning at 0132 UTC on December 9. It said that due to solar wind from a coronal hole, expect increased geomagnetic activity on December 10.

    Both average daily solar flux and average daily sunspot numbers were higher over the December 3-9 period than on the previous week.

    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 41.6 to 48 and average daily solar flux rose from 97.2 to 102.2.

    Geomagnetic indicators rose at well, with planetary A index rising from 9.9 to 12.6 and mid-latitude A index from 6.6 to 11.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the near term is 112 and 115 on December 11-12, 120 on December 13-15, then 115 on December 16-17, 105 on December 18, 100 on December 19-26, 98 on December 27, 95 on December 28-29, 98 on December 30, 100 on December 31 and 105 on January 1-2, 100 on January 3-4 and 105 on January 5-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22, 16 and 12 on December 11-13, then 10, 6, 10 and 6 on December 13-15, then 10 and 8 on December 16-17, 5 on December 18-26, then 18, 15 and 10 on December 27-29, and 5 on December 30-31, then 15, 20, 18 and 10 on January 1-4, then 8, 12 and 10 on January 5-7, and 8 on January 8-11.

    Today we have an updated geomagnetic forecast from Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group. OK1MGW and OK1HH have made these weekly forecasts since 1978, 37 years!

    Petr expects quiet to active geomagnetic conditions on December 11, quiet to unsettled December 12, mostly quiet December 13, quiet to active December 14-15, quiet to unsettled December 16, quiet December 17-22, mostly quiet December 23, quiet to active December 24-25, quiet to unsettled December 26-27, active to disturbed December 28, quiet to unsettled December 29, mostly quiet December 30-31, quiet to active January 1-3, quiet to unsettled January 4, and quiet to active again on January 5-6.

    He expects increases in solar wind on December 11, 14-15, 24-25 and January 1-3 and 5-6.

    So far this year we have an average daily sunspot number of 71.2, and by December 31 that average will probably not deviate much, because the 71.2 figure is based on 94 percent of the data we will have by the end of the day on December 31.

    The average daily sunspot numbers for the years 2008-2015 were 4.7, 5.1, 25.5, 80.1, 82.3, 97.1, 121.2 and 71.2, with the last figure being a preliminary value. Cycle 23 had a peak year in 2001 at 176.7. The two previous years (1999-2000) each had a yearly average of daily sunspot numbers above 170 (173 and 170.3). So the peak of the previous cycle had much higher sunspot numbers, plus the peak was sustained over several years.

    We finally received a couple of reports from participants in the CQ World Wide CW DX Contest a couple of weeks back, from N8II and NK8Q.

    First from Mark Schreiner, NK8Q, in State College, Pennsylvania reporting on December 4:

    "I only operated for a few hours from mid-afternoon (2000 UTC) on Sunday until the end of the contest at 2400 UTC. 10m was open okay at that time and I put quite a few stations in the log, then moved to 15 meters to continue doing the same. It was open better than 10 meters and I mostly managed to work stations into South America on both bands, but also the farther reaches of North America as well. I finished off with 20 meters for the last 60-90 minutes with most of the contacts during that time into Japan. It is always fun having a run in the log to JA-land!

    "I'm looking forward to the 160 meter contest this weekend (this was written on December 4, so the 160 meter contest was actually last weekend, December 5-6). I did a quick check of the antenna (an Inverted-V; I sure miss my Inverted-L from my previous home.) at the clubhouse of Nittany ARC just outside of State College, Pennsylvania last night to make sure it was still functional. Last year was the first year it was functional since I moved to this area about 5 years ago.

    "I didn't have time to check the Beverage antenna we deployed last winter, but may do so on Saturday with some daylight to get its advantage into Europe on Saturday night. I have to work until 2200 UTC and then have dinner with my wife, but plan to spend most of the night at the clubhouse to operate for the evening and at least until 0800 UTC.

    "Saturday night I can't get on until much later due to a surprise birthday party, but afterward I'll be on the air until at least 0800 UTC again. I'm hoping conditions are favorable for others to hear my QRP signal as I've done in the past!"

    Uh-oh Mark. Now that this bulletin has been read all over the world, is that birthday party still a surprise? I guess so, since it actually happened last week.

    Next, from about 94 miles directly south of NK8Q, we have a report from occasional contributor Jeff Hartley, N8II, in Shepherdstown, West Virginia:

    "Here is a brief summary of CQWW CW from here.

    "160 meters: It was not a good weekend for those short of the super station level. There seemed to be a lack of Caribbean signals as well as weak signals from Europe, but I did manage 9A (Croatia), OZ1IKY (the European leader, it appears, in Denmark), S5 (Slovenia), DL (Germany), OM (Slovak Republic), and EI (Ireland) the first night, but the second night was worse.

    "80 meters: Conditions were okay, but European stations were not loud around 0300 UTC the first night, then quite good by 0430-0530 UTC including northern Europe and Russia. 4X (Israel) and TC0A in Turkey were logged. JA3YKC was heard, but weak around Saturday sunrise.

    "40 meters: Plenty of European activity through the night until I had to QRT both days, Zone 14 weakened around 0300-0400 UTC the first night. It was surprising that Europe did not drop out around 0200-0400 UTC. Even the second night, European activity kept the band crowded with many S9+ signals. I worked 4X, A7 (Qatar0 and 7Z1 (Saudi Arabia) in the Middle East and 3D2 (Swaziland) and JA around Sunday sunrise. SU90IARU (Egypt) was my only Zone 34 contact of the contest. I did work all zones on all bands. Several multi-op stations claimed all zones on 40 and 20 Meters as did W3LPL on 15 Meters.

    "20 Meters did not disappoint at the start with the band open to some degree in all directions; I made WAC including DP1POL in Antarctica in the first 17 minutes! AF (Africa) signals were loud, logging all AF zones except 34 and 39 by 0130 UTC. HS, JT, BV and BY were logged within the same 10 minutes. Signals were loud from Europe and Zone 17 (Asiatic Russia) around sunrise and again from 1800-2000 UTC. The northern European stations were loud from 2100 UTC right through 0100 UTC Saturday evening along with East and some central Asians. I logged 37 Zones total missing 30, 34, and 39.

    "15 Meters; Worked almost a thousand European stations during my 24 hour total effort! Both days featured good openings to European Russia, but I never logged 17 just beyond the UA4 stations that called. Northern Europe was in Saturday afternoon until at least 22Z via probable auroral Es, and also on 20 Meters as noted. Saturday evening I worked YE1K (Indonesia), BY, DS4, 9M6NA and AH0K along with loud JAs.

    "10 Meters: I made only 223 contacts vs 915 last year. The band opened to Europe both days, but almost entirely southern and western Europe, never hearing Zone 16. All of the African zones except 34 were present and loud around 1645Z Sunday working 5R, ZD8, C92, D4, and three ZS stations. The band never opened well to the northern Caribbean while I was active due to the declining solar flux. Time spent there was interesting, but the Pacific and JA were tough.

    "Overall the low K index and solar flux around 100 provided very decent conditions except on 10 and 160 meters. The northern European stations were treated to a great weekend compared to averages in November."

    Don't miss the ARRL 10 Meter Contest this weekend. Although solar activity isn't high, this contest is scheduled to take advantage of ionization from meteor trails during the Geminids meteor shower.

    This year the peak of the shower should be late in the contest.

    Look here for details:

    http://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/earthskys-meteor-shower-guide#geminids [1]

    Note all the multipliers in Mexico you can work: http://www.dxxe.org/concurso/xe-mults.pdf[2]

    Check this for rules and details: http://www.arrl.org/10-meter[3]

    In the November 30 propagation bulletin, ARLP048, we mentioned Don, W9IXG and problems on 75 meters with his local/regional network. (http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP048/2015[4]). I suggested that solar activity is low enough that it may not always support regional communications on 75 meters. In other words, the ionosphere directly overhead is not energized enough to reflect signals back to stations below.

    Ted Leaf, K6HI, of Kona, Hawaii suggests switching to 40 meters when 75 meters isn't working. Ted wrote, "I am on our Army MARS net on 40, and it works well across all the islands. Our antenna heights on 40 are NVIS." In other words, he uses antennas on 40 meters that are low enough to support Near Vertical Incidence Skywave propagation.

    http://kv5r.com/ham-radio/nvis-antennas/nvis-page-3/[5]

    Note that via links at the bottom of the page you can navigate back to page 1, or out to page 8 and beyond for more information on NVIS antennas and propagation. W9IXG replied: "Thanks for the recommendation. We will investigate using 40 meters during radio blackout conditions on 75 meters. Our net runs from 1100-1315 UTC, so finding an open frequency for that length of time could be a problem and I'll need to poll our 100+ members to see how many have access to 40 meters.

    "Our NWS weather net has been operating since 1964 on 75 meters and while we have seen short periods of time when we've had no propagation, we've never experienced several continuous months of poor-terrible conditions. That being said, conditions do seem to be improving as we move into the winter."

    David Moore wrote: "The Sun is supposed to be entering a quiet period, but it's still showing signs of its 11-year peak of activity it reached in early 2014."

    https://shar.es/1GmvKG[6]

    Always good for tips on aurora, David also sent this link concerning widespread observation of Aurora Borealis in both North America and Europe recently: http://bit.ly/1SDjW5p[7]

    David also sent this: http://bit.ly/1TF3SQT[8]

    Dennis Markel, N1IMW of Bedford, New Hampshire wrote: "As you predicted, the ARRL 160 Meter Contest enjoyed very quiet conditions both nights - noise was at S1 to S2 on my FT1000mp here in Bedford. Similar conditions existed for the CQ World Wide on 160 meters as well."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[13] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[14] .

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[15].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16].

    Sunspot numbers for December 3 through 9 were 47, 25, 41, 38, 50, 58, and 77, with a mean of 48. 10.7 cm flux was 94.5, 97.6, 100.5, 102.2, 100.7, 111.2, and 108.8, with a mean of 102.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 16, 24, 20, 11, and 8, with a mean of 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 4, 14, 26, 16, 9, and 6, with a mean of 6.6.

     


    [1] http://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/earthskys-meteor-shower-guide#geminids
    [2] http://www.dxxe.org/concurso/xe-mults.pdf
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP048/2015
    [5] http://kv5r.com/ham-radio/nvis-antennas/nvis-page-3/
    [6] https://shar.es/1GmvKG
    [7] http://bit.ly/1SDjW5p
    [8] http://bit.ly/1TF3SQT
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [14] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [15] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 18 19:59:01 2015
    12/18/2015

    Australia's Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning at 2224 UTC on December 17. It read in part, "Two coronal mass ejections observed Dec 16 are expected to impact the Earth in sequence late Dec 18 to early Dec 19. Brief minor to major geomagnetic storm conditions may result."

    For December 18 they predicted quiet to active conditions, and on December 19 active to minor storm.

    Solar activity increased over the past week, compared to the previous seven days. Average daily sunspot number on December 10-16 was 74.3, up from 48 over the previous seven days, December 3-9.

    Average daily solar flux increased from 102.2 to 118.6.

    Geomagnetic indices were also higher, with planetary A index going from 9.9 to 15.6, and mid-latitude A index from 6.6 to 11.3.

    The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA forecasters shows predicted daily solar flux at 120 on December 18, 125 on December 19-21, 120 on December 22-23, then 115, 110, 105 and 98 on December 24-27, 95 on December 28-29, 98 on December 30-31, 100 on January 1-2, 105 on January 3, 110 on January 4-6, 115 on January 7-9, and then peaking at 130 on January 11-13 before dropping back below 100 after January 22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 16, 42, 18, 10 and 8 on December 18-22, 5 on December 23-26, then 18, 15 and 10 on December 27-29, 5 on December 30-31, then 15, 20, 18 and 10 on January 1-4, 8, 20, 18 and 12 on January 5-8, and 10, 8, 18 and 25 on January 9-12. Planetary A index then quiets down to 5 on January 16-22.

    The OK1HH Geomagnetic Activity Forecast says to watch for quiet to active conditions December 18, active to disturbed conditions December 19, quiet to unsettled December 20, quiet December 21-22, mostly quiet December 23, quiet December 24, quiet to active December 25-27, active to disturbed December 28, quiet to unsettled December 29, mostly quiet December 30, quiet to active December 31, active to disturbed January 1-2, quiet to unsettled January 3, mostly quiet January 4, quiet to active January 5-6, quiet to unsettled January 7, mostly quiet January 8, quiet January 9, active to disturbed January 10, and quiet to unsettled January 11.

    OK1HH expects an increase in solar wind on December 16-19, 26-29, January 2-4 and 7-8. The prediction is less certain on December 16-17, 19, and 28-29.

    The Geminid meteor shower always has the possibility each year of enhancing conditions for the ARRL Ten Meter Contest (due to ionized meteor trails), but this year the peak occurred after the contest, on December 14. But still, the shower was predicted to last from December 7-16.

    Mark Schreiner, NK8Q, of State College, Pennsylvania sent in this report on the 160 meter contest from two weeks ago.

    "I was also operating in the 160-meter contest last weekend. While I had some distractions that prevented me from putting in the full amount of time I would have liked, I did have a blast running QRP, especially on Friday night from 0100Z to 0200Z when I was camped out on 1800.35 kHz calling CQ. I had run rates like I've never seen while running QRP before (on any band!). The peak was 153 QSOs per hour in a 10 minute window, but that wasn't just a quick flurry of activity and then it was done, it kept going for about 1-1/2 hours.

    "I had a 60 minute run rate of 53 Qs/Hr which is about double my normal rate. Unfortunately, I was at a birthday party on Saturday evening so wasn't able to operate during that obviously prime timeframe, but did get back on around 0400Z and stayed on through until about an hour after sunrise at 1300Z on Sunday morning when I shut down.

    "I finished with over 400 QSOs and 60 multipliers with 17 hours of my QRP efforts (and thanks to all who spent time working to pull my signal out!). I was especially pleased when a station from the Virgin Islands answered my CQ! Best DX from central PA to the east was GW (Wales), to the south was SFL (South Florida) and C6 (Bahamas), to the west was AZ and OR and to the north was VY2. I've heard better conditions, but it wasn't too bad."

    Mark operated the club station at the Nittany Amateur Radio Club, with 5 W and a 160 meter half-wave inverted V antenna: http://www.nittany-arc.net/station.html[1]

    Jeff, N8II, reported on December 12: "I am in the 10 meter contest right now, conditions surprisingly good especially to the States, but openings shorter than last year although good to 7 land from 1630Z until local sunset (2200Z). I will send a report later. On a usual day there is almost no USA activity at mid-day (making you think the band is not open); there was plenty today!"

    On December 17 Jeff wrote: "I just sent a report on the 10 meter contest, it was not a total collapse (in reference to N0JK comments later in today's Solar Update - Tad), but conditions were noticeably down all day Sunday compared to Saturday and the skip zone was much longer, especially to the south in the afternoon.

    "The K index was running mostly at 3 the first day and 1-2 Sunday with SFI up to 123 Sunday, but continuing the pattern I have observed recently, Saturday was actually a significantly better day.

    "Friday evening, conditions were worse than I can ever remember. The band was almost totally dead as it was after 24Z Saturday evening as well. I worked only ME and two FL stations on meteor scatter Friday, the rest were all within local working range which extends out to OH (barely), CT, NY, and NJ.

    "Saturday, my first QSO at 1224Z when I fired up was on CW with a French station peaking around 120 degrees vs. normal heading of 55 via F2 scatter. Sunrise was about 1220Z. I continued to work the East Coast on backscatter, Canary Islands, Czech Republic, Netherlands, and Germany all on F2 scatter except for African stations.

    "At 1250Z, the first loud direct path Caribbean station was in the Virgin Islands. Around 1320 a couple of loud Quebec stations called via Es on CW. Still on scatter beaming 90-120 degrees, numerous stations in Germany, Switzerland, Croatia, and Italy were logged until finally, at 1353Z, a loud direct-path CR7 in Portugal was found on SSB and many EU QSOs followed until 1600Z when the band rapidly closed in that direction.

    "The northernmost extent of the opening was Scotland, Germany, and Poland with a good number of Mediterranean area stations including Macedonia and Israel. Dutch stations were loud and numerous as well as England for a shorter time.

    "Surprisingly, at 1432Z, a fairly loud US5 in the Ukraine called (never heard one in the CQWW on CW). Last year into EU lasted much longer and farther north into all of northern EU at times. BY 1600Z, stations to the west were loud and numerous which lasted all day until 2100Z when the band started to fade.

    "The skip zone was the shortest around 1700-1800Z right around local noon here and just west of here. The skip zone with loud stations was as short as MS, LA, and MN aided by some Es which probably also added some loud Texans. But, the band never opened well to KS, MO, NE (one loud station only), IA, and SD.

    "CA was weak at times, but never almost gone like last year and the Rocky Mountain states plus WA, OR, and AZ were easy to work as well as VE4-VE7 (Manitoba thru British Columbia).

    "Signals were good to the south as well down to Brazil and Argentina, but the northern Caribbean faded out by around 1900-2000Z. I was called by Hawaii, New Zealand, and a weak QRP station in Australia, but nothing else from the Pacific was heard and I had to QRT at 2120Z before any hope of Asia might appear.

    "Sunday was slow for new QSOs and propagation was worse despite better solar indices. The first sweep of SSB band was devoid of any signals. My first QSO was a OQ4 in Belgium at 1222Z on CW aided by Es to the Canadian Maritimes which lasted until past 1345Z, but activity in Canada was low (was called by PEI).

    "I found few new stations in EU and had few answers to CQs. Most signals were not strong that were worked all morning. Around 1400Z was the peak of EU with Turkey, Ukraine, Poland, Czech and Slovak Republics calling in on CW.

    "Backscatter to the Eastern USA/VE beaming south around 1430-1530Z was strong, but I had few callers on SSB despite some signals near S9. The northern Caribbean was also loud that time, but faded out for good by 1800Z.

    "After 1520Z, EU was nearly gone working last one EI2 in Ireland at 1539Z. BY 1530Z stations in the far western USA were loud, so I turned my attention that direction with excellent signals also from Mexico where several new XE states called in on CW. By 18Z backscatter had gotten weaker and continued to worsen and only mostly deep SA stations were workable to the south. I did have decent conditions to CO/NM and farther west and worked quite a few CA stations, but OR/WA was much weaker than Saturday. The west coast was gone by 2200Z only 10 minutes past sunset and my last SA QSO was with Peru at 2225Z which ended any ionospheric propagation for the day. Of note was a QSO with VE8NSD in the NW Territories at 2049Z on SSB, my only Arctic QSO (no AK). I worked all of the provinces except for Nunavut and Yukon between both modes.

    "I ended up with 140 California QSOs, 82 from Arizona, and 73 from Washington, 60 from Maryland (locals) totaling 1317 with 204 multipliers. Both QSOs and multipliers were way down from 2014, but there was plenty of activity except a bit sparse Sunday afternoon."

    David Moore sent this link to a time-lapse video from way back in 2003 of a huge solar flare. Just click on the big black space between the two blue arrows to watch: https://shar.es/1Gg1US[2]

    The snow-like artifacts were caused by radiation from the flare overloading the camera in the observatory (SOHO). Check this for more info on SOHO: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/[3]

    David also sent a link about the NRAO Very Large Array studying solar flares: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/12/151203150131.htm[4]

    More info on the VLA: http://public.nrao.edu/explorer/vla/TheVLAExplorer.php[5]

    I like this image: http://public.nrao.edu/explorer/vla/TheVLAExplorer.php?map=ArraySite[6]

    We have a couple of reports from Jon Jones, N0JK, first regarding the recent 10 meter contest:

    "The 10 meter band "collapsed" Sunday afternoon (December 13) for many stations in Central and northern South America to North America in the ARRL 10 meter contest. Steve, PJ4DX posted in his "3830" contest report that he was frustrated hearing loud PY and LU stations still running mainland USA stations Sunday afternoon and these NA stations were completely inaudible for him."

    PJ4DX is on the island of Bonaire, which lies off the coast of Venezuela in the Southern Caribbean.

    Two days later, on December 16, Jon wrote: "A long lasting 6 meter Es morning opening December 16. Here in Eastern Kansas, Michigan and Ohio stations were loud including the NF8M/b 50.076 MHz in EN82 which was 599 at 1710z. It runs just 5 W to a ground plane antenna!

    "Later the Es moved west and as I write stations in western Colorado and Utah are working the Pacific Northwest at 1935z."

    The beacon station that Jon mentioned in his report: http://www.nf8m.com/[7]

    For the next two weeks, even with the holidays, this bulletin will still come out on Friday, December 25 and Friday, January 1. There will be no ARRL Letter during those weeks.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[12] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[13] .

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[14].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15].

    Sunspot numbers for December 10 through 16 were 86, 77, 89, 74, 81, 64, and 49, with a mean of 48. 10.7 cm flux was 108.5, 113.7, 116.7, 122.5, 124, 118.9, and 126.2, with a mean of 102.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 20, 12, 8, 22, 17, and 7, with a mean of 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 18, 14, 8, 6, 15, 13, and 5, with a mean of 6.6.

     


    [1] http://www.nittany-arc.net/station.html
    [2] https://shar.es/1Gg1US
    [3] http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/
    [4] http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/12/151203150131.htm
    [5] http://public.nrao.edu/explorer/vla/TheVLAExplorer.php
    [6] http://public.nrao.edu/explorer/vla/TheVLAExplorer.php?map=ArraySite
    [7] http://www.nf8m.com/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [13] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 25 20:00:49 2015
    12/25/2015

    Merry Christmas! This is the first time we have released a bulletin on Christmas Day. The last time Christmas fell on a Friday -- our normal day for publishing this bulletin -- was back in 2009, and we released the bulletin[1] on Christmas Eve. Note that the solar indices for that week were no better than for this past week, 6 years later.

    This will be the last propagation bulletin for 2015; our next bulletin will be released next Friday, January 1, 2016.

    Over the past week, average daily sunspot numbers rose just 1.6 points to 49.6 compared to the previous 7 days, December 10-16. Average daily solar flux rose from 102.2 to 122.3 for the December 17-23 reporting period.

    A big geomagnetic storm on Sunday, December 20, drove our geomagnetic averages way up this week. On that day the mid-latitude A index (recorded in Virginia) reached 33, the planetary A index (recorded at a number of Northern Hemisphere sites) was 66, and the college A index (recorded near Fairbanks, Alaska) was 89.

    The day before, at 2323 UTC on December 19, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning:

    "Geomagnetic disturbance in progress following a CME impact after 1500 UTC December 19. Expect Active geomagnetic conditions December 20.

    "Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal mass ejection from 20-21 December 2015."

    Then on December 23, Spaceweather.com sent out this bulletin:

    "A new sunspot (AR2473) is growing rapidly in the sun's Southern Hemisphere, more than quadrupling in size in the past 24 hours. Crackling with M-class solar flares, the sunspot has already caused several minor shortwave radio blackouts, mainly south of our planet's equator. More flares and radio blackouts are in the offing as the growing sunspot turns toward Earth. Visit http://spaceweather.com[2] for more information."

    Over this reporting week (December 17-23) average planetary A index rose from 9.9 to 21.7 and average mid-latitude A index rose from 6.6 to 12.6.

    Predicted solar flux for the near term is 130 on December 25, 125 on December 26-31, then 115, 110 and 105 on January 1-3, 110 on January 4-6, 115 on January 7-9, 120 on January 10-13, 118 on January 14-15, 115 on January 16, 120 on January 17-18, then 115, 105 and 100 on January 19-21, 98 on January 22-23, 95 on January 24-25, 98 on January 26-27, and 100 on January 28-29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10, 8 and 6 on December 25-28, 5 on December 29-31, then 15, 20, 18 and 10 on January 1-4, then 8, 20, 18 and 12 on January 5-8, then 10, 20, 18, 10 and 8 on January 9-13, and 5 on January 14-16.

    OK1MGW from the Czech Propagation Interest Group sends us his geomagnetic prediction this week, and it says to expect the geomagnetic field to be quiet to active December 25-28, quiet to unsettled December 29, mostly quiet December 30-31, active to disturbed January 1-2, quiet to active January 3, quiet to unsettled January 4, quiet to active January 5, active to disturbed January 6, quiet to active January 7, quiet to unsettled January 8-9, active to disturbed January 10, quiet to active January 11, quiet to unsettled January 12-14, mostly quiet January 15-17, quiet on January 18-19, and quiet to unsettled January 20.

    OK1MGW expects increased solar wind on December 25-28, January 1-3, January 5-6, and January 10-11.

    The winter solstice was 3 days ago, on Tuesday, December 22. Now the hours of daylight will become longer for the next 6months, until the summer solstice in the Northern Hemisphere, on June 20, 2016. Spring begins at the equinox, March 19-20.

    As the days get longer, HF conditions will generally improve in the Northern Hemisphere. We can test some paths with a simple free program, W6ELprop.

    Testing from Dallas, Texas, to Germany, a path of 8,222 km (5,109 miles) on the shortest day of 2015 we can see that 15 meters has the best possibility of propagation from 1500-1630 UTC with an A rating (75-100 percent chance of communication) at 23 dB above 0.5 mV at the receiving end) and a B rating (50-74 percent probability) 1430-1700 UTC.

    At the end of January 2016, the opening runs from 1430-1730 UTC for the B rating, (A rating 1500-1700 UTC), with signals about 2 dB lower.

    At the vernal equinox, on March 20, 2016, the 15 meter opening stretches from 1400-2100 UTC. All of these tests were done with a solar flux of 127, to look at seasonal variation only.

    Over the same path on 17 meters on December 22, 2015, it is open from 1400-1730 UTC, on January 31 1400-1830 UTC and on March 20, 2016, 1300-2200 UTC.

    But for lower frequencies, such as 75 meters, conditions are better during long periods of darkness, such as late December. On December 22, over the same path 75 meters looks best 2330-0830 UTC, but on January 31 the best conditions are from 0030-0730 UTC and on March 20 conditions look best at 0200-0530 UTC.


    Sunspot numbers for December 17 through 23 were 52, 49, 44, 33, 38, 68, and 63, with a mean of 49.6. The 10.7 cm flux was 117.8, 117.1, 119, 116.6, 121.7, 130.1, and 133.9, with a mean of 122.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 12, 66, 38, 13, and 11, with a mean of 21.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 4, 8, 33, 22, 8, and 7, with a mean of 12.6. 

    For more information[3] concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service. For an explanation of the numbers[4] used in this bulletin, see "What the Numbers Mean, and Propagation Predictions -- a brief introduction to propagation and the major factors affecting it," by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    An archive[5] of past propagation bulletins is on the ARRL website. More information and tutorials[6] on propagation are on K9LA's website. 

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[7] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[8] .

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts[9] between four US regions and 12overseas locations are on the ARRL website.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].


    [1] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP053/2009
    [2] http://spaceweather.com
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [8] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 1 21:02:26 2016
    01/01/2016

    Happy New Year! This is the first time the propagation bulletin has been produced and distributed on New Year's Day. Thanks to Rick Lindquist, WW1ME, for putting in the extra time and effort.

    Over the past week, average daily sunspot numbers were up, but average daily solar flux values were down, compared to the previous 7 days.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose 8.1 points to 57.7, and average daily solar flux values were down 12.4 points to 109.9. The average planetary A index declined from 21.7 to 8.9, and the average mid-latitude A index went from 12.6 to 5.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 95 on January 1; 100 on January 2-7; 105 on January 8; 110 on January 9-12; 105 on January 13-14; 110 on January 15; 115 on January 16-20; 110 on January 21-26, and 115 on January 27-29.

    The predicted planetary A index is 30 on January 1; 18 on January 2-3; 12 and 8 on January 4-5; 20 on January 6-7; then 12, 10, 20, 18, and 10 on January 8-12; 5 on January 13-20; 10, 15, 10, and 12 on January 21-24; 10 on January 25-26; 8, 15, 25, 18, and 12 on January 27-31.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sees active to disturbed geomagnetic conditions on January 1-2, quiet to unsettled January 3-4, mostly quiet January 5, quiet to active January 6, mostly quiet January 7, quiet on January 8, quiet to unsettled January 9, active to disturbed January 10, quiet to active January 11, quiet January 12, quiet to unsettled January 13, mostly quiet January 14, quiet to unsettled January 15, quiet to active January 16, mostly quiet January 17-18, quiet to unsettled January 19-20, mostly quiet January 21, quiet to active January 22, mostly quiet January 23, quiet January 24-25, mostly quiet January 26 and quiet to active January 27.

    OK1HH believes there will be increased solar wind on January 3-7, January 20-25, January 30-February 4, and February 19-21.

    At the beginning of the New Year, let's look at some of the numbers we follow.

    Average daily sunspot numbers during 2015 were the lowest since 2010.

    Average daily sunspot numbers for each year from 2003-2015 were 109.2, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1, 12.8, 4.7, 5.1, 25.5, 80.1, 82.3, 97.1, 121.2, and 70.1 in 2015.

    We track a 3-month moving average of sunspot numbers, and for this year, centered on January through November (November's average runs from October 1 through December 31, 2015) the numbers were 98.2, 78.1, 68.2, 72.4, 77.7, 76.3, 69.1, 67.5, 64.5, 64.6, and 58.5.

    Rich Zwirko, K1HTV, of Amissville, Virginia, sent a report on his 6 meter activity.

    "After finishing a nice Christmas dinner I received a telephone call from Marty, K2PLF, in Maryland advising me of a 6 meter opening from New Zealand to the Mid-Atlantic area. At 0207 UTC I heard and worked ZL3RC (RE66) on SSB on 50120 kHz. Two minutes later ZL3AAU (RE66) on 50110, also on SSB, was in the K1HTV log. At 0223 UTC Rod, ZL3NW, (RE66) became the third New Zealand station worked, this time on CW on 50100 kHz. Rod's signal was in for almost an hour into my FM18ap Virginia QTH, being last heard at 0319 UTC. Also worked were KP3W (FK68) at 0231 UTC and XE2X (EL06), both on CW. The opening was most likely TEP, with a single hop E-skip assist to the northeast. While the band was open to New Zealand, many strong W5 stations were being heard here. The SFI was 133 with the A Index at 9 and K Index at 2.

    "Although not a new one on 6 meters for me, the three ZLs, were a nice Christmas surprise and new DXCC band countries for area 6 meter DXers K2PLF, K3SX, and W3LPL."

    What will the Magic Band bring next? I wouldn't be surprised to see a VK signal make it into the States in the next few weeks. Rich's QRZ.com page says he runs 100 W or less on HF and has all DXCC entities confirmed except North Korea.

    I just finished reading a fascinating book about "The Hermit Kingdom" which I highly recommend: A Kim Jong-Il Production - The extraordinary true story of a kidnapped filmmaker, his star actress, and a young dictator's rise to power, by Paul Fischer.

    I couldn't put it down.

    QST "The World Above 50 MHz" Editor Jon Jones, N0JK, sent a report from KH6:

    "Usually December is a slow month on 6 meters from Hawaii, but the New Year's Eve geomagnetic storm created some enhanced conditions. I heard the JA6YBR/b 50.017 MHZ for about 30 minutes 579 at 2345 UTC December 31 from Oahu. No live stations heard. Suspect direct F2. Happy New Year!"

    And this: www.sciencerecorder.com/news/2015/12/31/sun-blasts-trigger-new-years- eve-storm/[1]

    Sunspot numbers for December 24 through 30 were 51, 71, 63, 67, 64, 54, and 34, with a mean of 49.6. The 10.7 centimeter flux was 132.7, 126.4, 117.4, 110.3, 112.1, 105.4, and 101.5, with a mean of 122.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 9, 15, 11, 5, 6, and 4, with a mean of 21.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 6, 11, 7, 3, 4, and 2, with a mean of 12.6.

    For more information[2] concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service. For an explanation of the numbers[3] used in this bulletin, see "What the Numbers Mean, and Propagation Predictions -- a brief introduction to propagation and the major factors affecting it," by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    An archive[4] of past propagation bulletins is on the ARRL website. Moreinformation and tutorials[5] on propagation are on K9LA's website.

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format athttp://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[6] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[7] .

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts[8] between four US regions and 12overseas locations are on the ARRL website.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are athttp://arrl.org/bulletins[9]. - Thanks to Tad Cook, K7RA

        


    [1] http://www.sciencerecorder.com/news/2015/12/31/sun-blasts-trigger-new-years-eve-storm/
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [7] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 8 20:03:53 2016
    01/08/2016

    The 2015 Christmas Eve transmission from SAQ, the Alexanderson alternator station at the World Heritage Grimeton[1] site in Sweden, elicited more than 350 reports, according to a preliminary accounting, many of them from hams. SAQ transmits on 17.2 kHz. The lion's share of reports - nearly 160 - came from Germany. Listeners in the US filed eight reports, with just five indicating they actually heard SAQ.

    "The transmission appears to be our best so far," said Lars Kalland, SM6NM, who distributed the report. Kjell Dahl, OH0KXJ, reported hearing SAQ for the first time. "It is always a pleasure to listen this CW melody on 17.2 kHz," commented Manu Aft, F5ROL. 

    The vintage station began its holiday transmissions in 2006. Dating from the 1920s, the Alexanderson alternator[2] - essentially an ac alternator run at extremely high speed - can put out 200 kW but typically is operated at less than one-half that power level. Once providing reliable transatlantic communication, it is now a museum piece and only put on the air on special occasions.


    [1] http://grimeton.org/
    [2] http://alexander.n.se/in-english/the-high-frequence-generator/

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 15 20:06:01 2016
    01/15/2016

    Trends over the past week were just the way we like them, with average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increasing, and geomagnetic indices lower, compared to the previous seven days.

    Why do we like these numbers? When solar flux and sunspot numbers are higher, this increases the likelihood that there will be openings on HF. Lower geomagnetic indices suggest lower absorption.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 41 to 55.7, and average daily solar flux increased from 98.2 to 106.5. Average daily planetary A index declined from 16.6 to 11.1, while average daily mid-latitude A index went from 10.6 to 8.4.

    These comparisons are for the January 7-13 period against the previous seven days.

    Predicted solar flux is 105 on January 15, 110 on January 16-18, 105 on January 19-21, 100 on January 22, 105 on January 23-26, 110 on January 27-28, 105 on January 29-31, 110 on February 1-7, then 108, 105 and 100 on February 8-10, 105 on February 11-14, 100 on February 15-18 and 105 on February 19-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 15-21, 15 on January 22, 10 on January 23, 5 on January 24-27, then 18, 12 and 8 on January 28-30, 5 on January 31 through February 1, then 15, 12 and 8 on February 2-4, 5 on February 5-6, then 6, 15, 12 and 8 on February 7-10, 6 on February 11-13, 5 on February 14-16, 8 on February 17 and 15 on February 18.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions on January 15, quiet to active January 16, quiet to unsettled January 17, mostly quiet January 18, quiet to active January 19-20, mostly quiet January 21, quiet to active January 22, mostly quiet January 23-24, quiet on January 25, quiet to unsettled January 26, active to disturbed January 27, quiet to active January 28, quiet on January 29-31, quiet to active on February 1-2, quiet to unsettled February 3, quiet on February 4-5, mostly quiet February 6-7, active to disturbed February 8 and quiet to active February 9.

    There are a couple of articles about propagation in the February 2016 issue of QST. Check out "Radio Wave Propagation: How Waves Attenuate With Distance" by Kai Siwiak, KE4PT on page 37, and "Make the Most of Ten Meters" by Steve Ford, WB8IMY on page 83.

    Sorry, no reader reports this week.

    Have you tried the online version of the VOACAP propagation prediction program? It's easy to use, and quite versatile. You can drag the endpoints of any path around the map, and the polar display to the right of the map gives you the hour-by-hour outlook for each band. VOACAP uses the predicted smoothed sunspot number for the month to make the predictions, and that number is already incorporated in the predictions here. Check it out at http://www.voacap.com/prediction.html[1]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[6] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[7] .

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for January 7 through 13 were 57, 80, 84, 73, 41, 29, and 26, with a mean of 55.7. 10.7 cm flux was 103.4, 108.5, 107, 108.9, 108, 105.5, and 104.1, with a mean of 106.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 8, 6, 7, 14, 15, and 14, with a mean of 11.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 6, 5, 7, 9, 10, and 11, with a mean of 8.4.

     


    [1] http://www.voacap.com/prediction.html
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [7] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 22 20:48:25 2016
    01/22/2016

    Over the past week we saw solar activity decline somewhat. Average daily sunspot number declined from 55.7 (during the January 7-13 period) to 46 during the recent period, January 14-20.

    Over the same periods average daily solar flux declined from 106.5 to 100.7. Average daily planetary A index went from 11.1 to 9, and average daily mid-latitude A index declined from 8.4 to 5.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 105 on January 22-23, 110 on January 24-28, then 105, 100 and 105 on January 29-31, 110 on February 1-4, 105 on February 5-11, 100 on February 12-14, 95 on February 15-19, and 105 on February 20-25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on January 22, 8 on January 23-24, 10 on January 25-26, then 9, 5, 12 and 8 on January 27-30, 5 on January 31 through February 1, then 15, 12 and 8 on February 2-4, 5 on February 5-6, 12 on February 7-8, 10 and 8 on February 9-10, 5 on February 11-17, then 8, 12 and 8 on February 18-20 and 5 on February 21-23.

    We saw one new sunspot on January 14, another on January 17, and two more on January 19 and 20. At 0530 UTC on Friday, January 22 I can see four numbered sunspot regions on the sun.

    A forecast from OK1MGW predicts quiet to unsettled conditions on January 22, mostly quiet January 23-25, quiet to unsettled January 26, quiet to active January 27, active to disturbed January 28, quiet to unsettled January 29-30, mostly quiet January 31, quiet to unsettled February 1, quiet to active February 2-3, mostly quiet February 4-6, quiet to active February 7-8, quiet to unsettled February 9-10, mostly quiet February 11, quiet February 12-14 and mostly quiet February 15-17.

    He expects increases in solar wind on January 27-28, February 1-3 and 7-8.

    David Moore sent a link to an article and video titled "Solar Filament Collapses in Stunning New NASA Sun Video." See it at http://huff.to/1P2xqIR[1] .

    Solar activity has been weak, and this chart of solar activity over the past year bears this out: http://www.solen.info/solar/[2]

    But we should see some seasonal improvements in HF propagation over the next few months the days become longer and we move toward the spring equinox in the Northern Hemisphere.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[7] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[8].

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for January 14 through 20 were 36, 38, 38, 48, 48, 55, and 59, with a mean of 46. 10.7 cm flux was 103.2, 103.5, 99.9, 100.6, 99.9, 97.5, and 100.4, with a mean of 100.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 6, 4, 4, 5, 11, and 25, with a mean of 9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 4, 3, 3, 4, 7, and 12, with a mean of 5.6.


    [1] http://huff.to/1P2xqIR
    [2] http://www.solen.info/solar/
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [8] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 29 21:00:12 2016
    01/29/2016

    Solar activity increased last week (January 21-27), compared to the previous seven days. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 46 to 57.3, and average daily solar flux went from 100.7 to 106. Geomagnetic indices were also higher, with planetary A index going from 9 to 11.6.

    Predicted solar flux for the short term is 110 and 108 on January 29-30, 105 on January 31 through February 1, 108 on February 2-4, 100 on February 5-6, 105 on February 7-11, 110 on February 12-13, 105 on February 14-15, 100 on February 16-20, 105 on February 21 and 108 on February 22-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8 and 5 on January 29-31, then 8, 15, 12 and 8 on February 1-4, 5 on February 5-6. 12 on February 7-8, 10 on February 9, 8 on February 10, 5 on February 11-16, then 10, 15, 10, 12 and 15 on February 17-21 and 12, 10, 8, 10 and 15 on February 22-26.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled on January 29-30, mostly quiet on January 31, quiet to unsettled on February 1, quiet to active February 2, quiet to unsettled February 3, quiet on February 4-5, quiet to unsettled February 6, quiet to active February 7-8, quiet to unsettled February 9, quiet on February 10, mostly quiet February 11-12, quiet to unsettled February 13, quiet to active February 14, mostly quiet February 15, active to disturbed February 16-17, quiet to active February 18-21, and mostly quiet on February 22-24.

    OK1HH expects an increase in solar wind on February 2-3, 5-7, 15-16 and
    20-21. He feels less certain about the solar wind forecast for February 2-3.

    This report from Jeff Hartley, N8II, of Shepherdstown, West Virginia on January 24: "It was a bit tough working VP8STI (South Sandwich) on 30 and 40 meters. Europe often seemed to have a big edge. Ten meters was also tough, especially for K5P (Palmyra). Twenty meters continues to close pretty early to Europe and in all directions in the PM. Higher K index values of 3-4 continue to not matter that much most of the time. Ten meters to the western USA is improving, with loud signals from Arizona and California most days from 1600-2100Z. We also had Es to Texas and Arkansas one day."

    We also heard from Jon Jones, N0JK on January 26: "The K5P DXpedition to Palmyra encountered low F2 MUFs to North America for the first part of their operation. There were only short, weak openings to Palmyra on 10 and 12 meters for many in North America. 15 and 20 meters were their workhorse bands.

    "On January 20, a CME impact sparked a geomagnetic storm that afternoon and the K index peaked at 6. Geomagnetic storms can shut down high latitude polar paths, but can enhance propagation towards and across the geomagnetic equator. K5P had a booming signal on both 10 and 12 meters around 2000z, allowing many to work the rare country on these bands. On 10 and 12 meters they peaked over S-9 on my mobile vertical. I logged K5P on 12 meter CW, but couldn't get through the boiling cauldron on 10. I checked for their 6-meter beacon on 50.106, but no copy."

    That Kp-index value of 6 was at the 0600 UTC reading on January 21, which was late in the evening on January 20 for most of North America, 10:00 PM PST here on the West Coast. The planetary A index on January 20-21 was 25 and 32.

    Earlier on January 26 Jon reported on six meter activity: "A second "peak" of sporadic E for the 2015/2016 winter Es season on 6.

    "Friday afternoon January 22 I worked KZ4RR EM90 and K1TO EL87 on 6 meters at about 2000z via Es while mobile between Lawrence and Topeka, Kansas. Sunday January 24 at 2125z I had a nice chat with VE2XK FN07, again while I was mobile in Lawrence.

    N0JK/M        16/01/24 2127Z  50130.0 FN07 ES EM28 Tks Jon            VE2XK

    K1TO EL87 heard the XE2HWB/b DL44 via double hop Es on Jan. 23 at 0034z.

     - Jon N0JK EM28 KS"

    And finally, David Moore sent this link: On Jan. 26th, 2016, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured imagery at several different wavelengths of superheated plasma exploding away from the Sun in a Coronal Mass Ejection event. The blast was not Earth-directed. https://shar.es/1hKeAN[1]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[6] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[7] .

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for January 21 through 27 were 56, 50, 54, 47, 58, 61, and 75, with a mean of 57.3. 10.7 cm flux was 104, 100.5, 98.9, 103.8, 107.6, 114.8, and 112.7, with a mean of 106. Estimated planetary A indices were 32, 14, 12, 11, 3, 4, and 5, with a mean of 11.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 15, 10, 10, 9, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 7.6.

     


    [1] https://shar.es/1hKeAN
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [7] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 5 18:02:50 2016
    02/05/2016

    Over the recent reporting week (January 28 through February 3) both sunspot and solar flux averages were down a negligible amount, and geomagnetic numbers were down substantially, compared to the previous seven days.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 57.3 to 50.6, while average daily solar flux values went from 106 to 105.4. Average daily planetary A index softened from 11.6 to 7.3, while the mid-latitude A index (measured in Fredericksburg, Virginia) went from 7.6 to 5.6.

    The latest predicted solar flux is 125 on February 5-6, 120 on February 7, 115 on February 8, 110 on February 9-11, 105 on February 12-20, 100 on February 21 through March 2, 95 on March 3, 90 on March 4-5, 95 on March 6-8 and 105 on March 9-18.

    Predicted mid-latitude A index is 6 on February 5, 5 on February 6, then 8, 18, and 12 on February 7-9, 6 on February 10-11, 5 on February 12-16, then 10, 15, 12 and 10 on February 17-20, 5 on February 21-27, then 8 on February 28-29, 15 and 8 on March 1-2, 5 on March 3-5, then 12, 10 and 8 on March 6-8 and 5 on March 9-15.

    OK1MGW predicts geomagnetic activity will be mostly quiet February 5-6, quiet to active February 7-8, quiet to unsettled February 9-10, mostly quiet February 11, quiet February 12-14, quiet to unsettled February 15, quiet to active February 16-18, quiet to unsettled February 19-20, mostly quiet February 21, quiet February 22-25, mostly quiet February 26-28, quiet to active February 29 through March 1, and quiet to unsettled March 2.

    During the March 16-18 period when he predicts quiet to active conditions, we may see active to disturbed conditions Match 16-17, although he is uncertain about this.

    He says we may see increased solar wind on February 7-8, 16-18 and February 29 through March 1.

    Skip Burroughs, KS5KIP, of Capitan, New Mexico sent a query about how to apply some of the data from this bulletin to get a feel for what propagation will be like.

    One way to do this is to use a propagation prediction program and do predictions based on your location for various locations and frequencies of interest.

    One free program for doing this is W6ELprop, which you can download from http://brucerichards.com/army/w6elprop.htm[1]. K9LA has some more info on running the program here: http://k9la.us/Propagation_101_23Sep07.pdf[2] and here: http://k9la.us/W6ELProp_tutorial.pdf[3]

    Basically what we want to see in the weekly numbers are rising solar flux and sunspot numbers and lower A index, at least ideally.

    You could take the average daily sunspot number from the bottom of this bulletin (50.6 in this bulletin) and use that in the program. If we run that for Capitan, New Mexico for this Sunday toward Japan, we see that 40 meters should be good 0600-1500 UTC, with best signals around 0900-1400 UTC. 30 meters seems good 0700-1430 UTC, 20 meters looks rather weak, but possibilities include 2100-0300 UTC and another possible opening at 1500-1600 UTC. 17 meters looks much stronger 2130-0200 UTC, and 15 meters 2200-0030 UTC. 12 meters looks promising 2230-2330 UTC.

    From Capitan to Chicago, 15 meters looks possible 1730-2000 UTC, 17 meters looks better 1630-2200 UTC, 20 meters 1500-0000 UTC and 30 meters 1330-0130 UTC. 40 meters looks excellent any time of the day or night, with best signals 0100-1300 UTC and open, but about 13 db lower signals but still open 1730-1930 UTC. 75 meters looks best 0130-1230 UTC.

    Vary the date using the same numbers, and you will see seasonal effects on propagation. For instance, the path to Japan on March 22 opens on 17 meters an hour earlier and closes over 2 hours later.

    Next week I should have an evaluation copy of ACE-HF, another propagation tool and I hope to review it.

    Now that January is over, we can look at our 3-month moving averages of sunspot numbers t check the progression of this solar cycle. This gives us the latest number, centered on December 2015.

    We saw the peak centered on February and March 2014, when the three month moving averages were 146.4 and 148.2. The highest single monthly average at the peak of the solar cycle was February 2014, at 174.6.

    The latest 3-month average was 55.4 centered on December 2015, which included all of the daily sunspot numbers from November 1, 2015 through January 31 2016.

    The 3-month moving averages of sunspot numbers centered on January through December 2015 were 98.2, 78.1, 68.2, 72.4, 77.7, 76.3, 69.1, 67.5, 64.5, 64.6, 58.5 and 55.4. With this moving average you can see a smooth, steady decline in cycle 24.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[8] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 [9].

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation [10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for January 28 through February 3 were 64, 49, 30, 39, 42, 52, and 78, with a mean of 50.6. 10.7 cm flux was 109.9, 106.9, 105.1, 101.2, 100.2, 102.1, and 112.1, with a mean of 105.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 3, 3, 10, 9, 6, and 14, with a mean of 7.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 3, 8, 6, 4, and 10, with a mean of 5.6.


    [1] http://brucerichards.com/army/w6elprop.htm
    [2] http://k9la.us/Propagation_101_23Sep07.pdf
    [3] http://k9la.us/W6ELProp_tutorial.pdf
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [9] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 12 20:15:22 2016
    02/12/2016

    All four of the indices we track rose over the past week, with average daily sunspot number rising from 50.6 to 86.6, average daily solar flux up from 105.4 to 117.4, average daily planetary A index increasing from 7.3 to 9.4, and average daily mid-latitude A index up from 5.6 to 6.4.

    Predicted solar flux for the near term is 110 and 105 on February 12-13, 105 on February 14-16, 111, 100, 105 and 110 on February 17-20, 115 on February 21-23, then 110 and 112 on February 24-25, 115 on February 26-27, 112 on February 28-29, then 110, 105, 100, 105 and 100 on March 1-5, 115 on March 6-7, then 118, 115 and 112 on March 8-10, 110 on March 11-14, and 112 on March 15-16.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10, 6 and 5 on February 12-15, then 8, 20, 12, 10 and 8 on February 16-20, 5 on February 21-29, then 15, 10, 12, 8 and 5 on March 1-5, 18 on March 6-7, 8 on March 8, 10 on March 9-10, and 5 on March 11-14.

    OK1HH predicts geomagnetic activity will be quiet to unsettled on February 12, quiet to active February 13, mostly quiet February 14-15, quiet on February 16, active to disturbed February 17, quiet to active February 18, quiet to unsettled February 19-20, quiet February 21-22, mostly quiet February 23-24, quiet February 25-26, quiet to unsettled February 27, quiet February 28-29, quiet to active March 1, quiet to unsettled March 2, quiet to active March 3, quiet March 4-5, active to disturbed March 6, quiet to active March 7, and quiet to unsettled March 8.

    OK1HH expects an increase in solar wind on February 15, 17-21, and 29 through March 3, but he is uncertain about February 15 and 29. According to Spaceweather[1], sunspot AR2497 erupted on February 11, producing a C9-class solar flare and hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) in space, some of which may strike Earth.

    Jon Jones, N0JK, of Kansas wrote: "The recent South Georgia VP8SGI DXpedition battled high winds, storms and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. It was challenging for many to try to work them on 10 meters from North America. The statistics bear this out -- VP8SGI reported only 2,080 North American contacts on 10 meters compared with over 5,400 on the 15 meter band. The low solar flux of 120 was a factor. Many days VP8SGI was only a faint 'whisper' in North America on 10 and only the largest stations were successful. Propagation did vary day to day. On February 5 the VP8SGI 12 meter signal was the strongest I had heard at 1845z -- an honest 599. I set up fixed mobile from a hilltop with a full 1/4 wave whip on 28 MHz. At 1910z VP8SGI popped up out of the noise on 28.023 MHz and I was able to complete a 10 meter CW contact. Several other NA stations reported working them using dipoles and small Yagis on 10 that day. VP8SGI was hearing very well. Listening and persistence sometimes pay off."

    N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia (FM19cj) wrote on February 6: "Thanks for the useful historical data about the cycle. At the peak, 10 meters was fantastic into Asia, Thailand coming thru both morning and evening for about 3 weeks most days and Mongolia was worked in the evening (very difficult path from here). Now we are lucky to hear EU, no signals most days, worse than Oct-Nov 2015 when we had some good openings including especially the phone CQWW. 10 is open to Africa (FR4NT Reunion/ 3B8HC Mauritius worked in past week) and to AZ/CA and farther north most days, but I did not hear any VE7's today on 10 working the BC QSO party. Fifteen meters was open, but seemed poor by 2100Z.

    "I also recently worked FR4NT on Reunion on 75-meter SSB around his sunrise. Of interest also were QSO's with K5P on Palmyra long path on both 15 SSB and 12-meter CW around 1900-2000Z. They were not readable short path at that time. Finding 12M open that path was amazing to me! 3D2AG/P on Rotuma also had a good signal one day on 15 CW long path mid-January and was loud on 20 CW long path 1900-2000Z day after day.

    "Last year, western Minnesota was workable on 15 especially western and northern areas; today in the Minnesota QSO Party I worked 2 stations very weak on backscatter only. Of interest was that 20 meters was as close to perfect all day as I can ever remember. I was the right distance away. Many Minnesota mobiles were S9+, easy to copy even through QRM! The last couple of year's signals went weak for 2-4 hours mid-day on 20. Forty meters did not seem that great, no mobiles for about 5 hours and then QRM from a RTTY contest. Eighty meters was open well enough that W0ZQ/rover was S7-9 on 80 and worked 2-3 other Minnesota mobiles all in the last 20 minutes with contest ending at 2400Z (near sunset in Minnesota).

    "One recent afternoon, two Florida stations called me on 20-meter CW running QRP to simple verticals around 2100Z, both were S9 on peaks with solid copy with one running 1 W! I decreased power to 5 W here and they copied me solid. One was portable on the beach. My antenna was a 2 el Yagi at 60 feet, did not even bother to try larger Yagi."

    And N8II wrote again on February 11: "Looking at the SFI numbers, there was no particular reason, SFI from 117 down to 112 today 2/11 (K index 2 thru AM), but the MUF was significantly higher today on the bands. At 1411Z, I found Jonas, LY5A, in Lithuania S9 on 12 meter CW, first LY or around that area heard since probably November on 24 MHz, after a quick hello, it was up to 10 meter CW for QSOs with RM7C in southern Russia who was about S4 on peaks.

    "Then I found CN8CE in Morocco and was called by OM3TDD, UW2ZO (Ukraine), followed by a string of south central Europeans ending with biggest surprise, EW3W, in Belarus at 1443Z who was S7. Other signals ranged from S5 to S9. Back on at 1600Z, I found DJ6ZM who was S9 + 30 dB running 500 W to stacked 5/5 Yagis. My 10 meter antenna is a 5 element Yagi on short boom at 99 feet. After logging special Dutch call PG16ANT on CW, I moved up to SSB and was treated to a string of loud mostly British Isle stations with a few Dutch and Germans.

    "Many of the Welsh and British stations were S9+ some with very simple verticals or dipoles. The opening did not seem to extend up to Scotland or Norway. The string of QSOs ended with OE2SCM near Salzburg, Austria S9 and CT1EUB in Portugal at 1738Z. I then found 5V7TH in Togo loud and easy to work and very loud (S9+ 20-30db) TK5MH in Corsica on 10 meter SSB. I then switched to 15-meter SSB and was called by England (one 5 W to wire), Germany, Netherlands, and Scotland.

    "In the afternoon I found 7P8C in Lesotho on 17 meter SSB and V51WW in Namibia on 12 meter SSB.

    "During the CQ 160 Meter CW contest on January 30-31, I found high absorption early with Illinois stations weak even after their sunset and not much of anything workable past the central US. But conditions did improve, and I had a nice run of West Coast (mainly AZ/CA) stations and a good number of Europeans calling from 0420-0615Z Saturday. KH6AT called at 0515Z near his sunset, so I ended up working all states except AK and 42 DXCC countries with similar conditions on Saturday evening/Sunday AM except that many reported good European conditions around 2300Z that I seemed to have largely missed.

    "I worked several AZ and CA stations I've never worked before on 160 and was called by CW5W in Uruguay with a signal as loud as or louder than the loudest European, and I also worked HC2AO in Ecuador. Conditions toward Europe seemed to favor the north a bit. Two R4 area Russians near the Asia border called in along with Leningrad area, Finland, UA2F Kaliningrad, Sweden, Denmark, and Belarus. I worked a total of 14 German calls and quite a few Czechs and Slovaks, as well as being called by P33W on Cyprus and LX7I in Luxembourg. The hardest to work USA area was definitely the Pacific Northwest with only three WA stations logged and no VE7 (unusual).

    On Sunday, February 7, there was a taste of good 10 meter conditions. At 1611Z I ran a string of Dutch, Italian, Spanish, Belgian, Swiss, and French stations. In the midst of the pile up, Francisco, TT8FC, called from Goundi, Chad with a nice S9 signal once I moved antenna to Africa. On the 8th, 12 meters was open to Europe from 1348Z until I finally called it quits at 1505Z with a weak RK3Y in Russia in the log. I also worked two Italians, one Swiss and E73RO with good signals on 10 meters from 1410-1430Z."

    Last week I mentioned that I hoped to review a new edition of the ACE-HF propagation prediction program. I received the package on Monday, but I haven't received the installation key yet.

    In the solar flux prediction archive, February 8 saw a significant jump across the board in expected solar flux, at about 10-15 percent. You can download the archive at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[2] .

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[7] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[8].

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for February 4 through 10 were 95, 113, 71, 84, 82, 79, and 82, with a mean of 86.6. 10.7 cm flux was 123.3, 119.7, 117.1, 117.1, 115.2, 117.3, and 112.2, with a mean of 117.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 8, 8, 17, 10, and 5, with a mean of 9.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 8, 5, 6, 11, 8, and 4, with a mean of 7.4.

     


    [1] http://spaceweather.com/
    [2] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [8] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Feb 20 01:18:55 2016
    02/19/2016

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined over the past week relative to the previous seven days. Average daily sunspot number went from 86.6 to 56.7, while average daily solar flux slid from 117.4 to 107.8. Geomagnetic indices were up. Average daily planetary A index went from 9.4 to 17.7, and mid-latitude A index went from 7.4 to 12.6.

    Early in this week Spaceweather.com[1] was anticipating a CME, but instead we got a stiff solar wind, causing the planetary A index to rise to 38 on February 16 and 34 on February 17. This will most likely subside.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12 and 8 on February 19-21, 5 on February 22-29, then 15, 10, 12 and 8 on March 1-4, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on March 5-8, then 5 on March 9-10, then 8, 5, 27 and 12 on March 11-14, and 20, 12, 10 and 8 on March 15-18, and 5 on March 19-27.

    Predicted solar flux is 95 on February 19-20, 100 on February 21-23, 105 on February 24-25, 110 on February 26, 115 on February 27-28, 118 on February 29, 120 on March 1-3, 115 on March 4-5, 110 on March 6-7, 105 on March 8-12, 108 on March 13-14, then 105, 103, 106, 107 and 110 on March 15-19, and 115 on March 20-26.

    This week OK1MGW believes geomagnetic field activity (which the A index expresses as numeric values) quiet to unsettled February 19-20, mostly quiet February 21, quiet on February 22-25, mostly quiet February 26, quiet to unsettled February 27-28, quiet to active February 29 to March 1, quiet to unsettled March 2, quiet to active March 3, quiet to unsettled March 4, quiet to active again on March 5-6, quiet to unsettled March 7-8, quiet to active March 9-10, quiet to unsettled March 11-12, quiet to active March 13, active to disturbed March 14-15, and quiet to active March 16.

    Jeff, N8II, in Shepherdstown, West Virginia (FM19cj) wrote on February 12, "Today SFI (solar flux) down 1, K index 3 at 1500Z.  Ten meters was very slow to open to Europe today, but finally around 1520Z, I started working fairly loud Germans/Netherlands/Belgium/Italy/Switzerland, some very loud signals and a few weak ones. I worked one summit activator in DL who was over S9, but think he was using a Yagi and was not QRP. Still open well at 1630Z when I went QRT. 12 meters was open much earlier, but a bit spotty in coverage."

    A fascinating article appeared in Sky and Telescope on Valentine's Day, about how sunspots are counted: http://bit.ly/1KkpeDK[2] or http://goo.gl/I0kyvt[3]

    The third paragraph mentions "all sorts of models" which use sunspot records to predict "climate, orbit of satellites, and stability of power grids." I would caution though that back in the 1970s and earlier, climate scientists tried to correlate solar activity with climate, and found a weak correlation, which only worked prior to the industrial age.

    Regarding the stability of power grids, this probably refers to blasts of CME energy and solar wind, which you may have noticed seem to peak after solar maximum. We are seeing this right now, and I have noticed it in previous sunspot cycles.

    NN4X sent this, concerning the solar dynamic observatory: http://www.space.com/ 31942-suns-busy-buzzy-life-1-year-in-2-5-minutes-4k-video.html[4]

    Here is an article claiming another solar max in 2023, nine years after the recent solar maximum. But why do they use my first name at the start of paragraph two? Is TAD an acronym? Or maybe this is from another subculture I am not familiar with, where the expression "Tad Dramatic" is widely understood? I wish I knew, but I must admit, rather like that expression.

    This paragraph is interesting: "This solar cycle decline helps to disprove solar hypotheses stating that the witnessed temperature rise on Earth would be caused to extra solar activity, if solar played any significant role over the last couple of decades, it should have manifested a net cooling trend."

    But we don't cover climate in this bulletin.

    Dr Jon K. Jones, MD, N0JK, of Lawrence, Kansas wrote on February 18, concerning six meters: "A geomagnetic storm is in progress February 16-19 with the 24 hour K index on February 18 peaking at 6.
    "Some aurora was worked on 6 meters from Minnesota February 17:

    "K0SIX, 2329Z 50125 EN34 Au EN35 by WB4SIA
    K0SIX, 2329Z 50125 EN35 EN44 by K9MU

    "The following morning, February 18, strong sporadic E on 6 meters from Florida to Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio. The 1 watt WA3TTS/b was copied 559 on 6 meters by K8XX in EL88 Florida.
    Some spots, all from February 18:

    "WA3TTS/B, 1416Z  50068 el90  1 W ERP heard 55 in el88 by K8XX
    K9OIM, 1402Z  50125 el98 by KC8UDV
    KJ4E, 1358Z 50125 59 +20 by KC8UDV
    K8MMM/B, 1355Z 50010EL98IT<>EN91IG 59+, by KJ4E
    W3PIE/B, 1339Z 50062 EL98IT<>FM09MM by KJ4E
    WA8FTA, 1335Z 50098 EL98IT<>EN52MK by KJ4E
    KJ4E,1326Z 50099 EN62AX<AUE>EL9 by WA9CAT
    WA9CAT, 1325Z 50099 EL98IT EN62AX TU QSO by KJ4E"

    The DX maps show some of the paths toward the end of the opening. The Es may have been associated with the geomagnetic activity.

    This weekend is the big ARRL International DX Contest (CW). According to the rules, the objective is "To encourage W/VE stations to expand knowledge of DX propagation on the HF and MF bands, improve operating skills, and improve station capability by creating a competition in which DX stations may only contact W/VE stations." It begins this evening (Friday, North America time) at 0000 UTC Saturday and ends 2359 UTC Sunday. See here for more details and rules: http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[5]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[10] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[11] .

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for February 11 through 17 were 68, 74, 46, 52, 48, 49, and 60, with a mean of 56.7. 10.7 cm flux was 112.8, 112.2, 110.3, 108, 107.3, 104, and 99.9, with a mean of 107.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 13, 7, 10, 11, 38, and 34, with a mean of 17.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 11, 7, 6, 10, 25, and 21, with a mean of 12.6.

     


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] http://bit.ly/1KkpeDK
    [3] http://goo.gl/I0kyvt
    [4] http://www.space.com/31942-suns-busy-buzzy-life-1-year-in-2-5-minutes-4k-video.html
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [11] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 11 21:40:52 2016
    03/11/2016

    Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux both increased over the past week. Average daily solar flux went from 92.9 to 96.8, and average daily sunspot number from 41.4 to 64.4. Geomagnetic indicators increased, with the most activity on March 6 and 7.

    On March 6-7 the planetary A index was 35 and 24.  According to Spaceweather.com[1], this was caused by a CIR. On March 4 they wrote, "NOAA forecasters estimate a 50-percent chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 6th when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between fast and slow-moving solar wind streams. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing density gradients and shock waves that do a good job of sparking auroras."

    Spaceweather.com also mentioned that the spring equinox (Sunday, March 20 at 0430 UTC) is a time for enhanced aurora activity. The weeks around equinoxes (both autumnal and vernal) are a time of increased aurora borealis. Six meter operators will want to be alert.

    On March 6 Spaceweather.com reported a G-2 Class geomagnetic storm. (Go to http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation[2] and click on the Geomagnetic Storms tab for details). G-2 signals a moderate geomagnetic storm, and typically "HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho."

    Predicted solar flux is 95 on March 11-13, 90 on March 14-17, 95 on March 18-20, 90 on March 21-23, and 95 on March 24-30. Solar flux then continues to meander between 90 and 95 for the remained of the 45 day forecast.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10, on March 11-12, 8 on March 13-14, 5 on March 15, 30 and 24 on March 16-17, 25 on March 18-19, 12 on March 20, then 5 on March 21 through April 2, then 22, 10 and 8 on April 3-5 and 5 on April 6-7. The planetary A index then increases to 25 again on April 13-15.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, expects geomagnetic conditions to be quiet to unsettled March 11-12, quiet to active March 13, active to disturbed on March 14-16 (although the March 15-16 period is less likely), quiet to active March 17, mostly quiet March 18-19, quiet on March 20-21, mostly quiet March 22, quiet again on March 23, mostly quiet March 24, quiet in March 25-27, quiet to active March 28, quiet to unsettled March 29-30, mostly quiet March 31, quiet on April 1-2, active to disturbed April 3-4, quiet to active April 5 and mostly quiet April 6.

    OK1HH expects increases in solar wind on March 14-17 and again on March 30 to April 4, but the outlook for increased solar wind is less certain for March 30-31.

    On March 8, Dr. Jon Jones, N0JK (editor, The World Above 50 MHz in QST), of Lawrence, Kansas wrote: "Did not expect a lot on 10 meters Sunday morning of the ARRL DX SSB contest with solar flux around 100. But conditions were remarkable in eastern Kansas.

    "Starting at 1707z with EI4KF, worked scads of Europeans. Many eastern Europeans were loud, along with Africa. The best DX was FH/IK5ZUI and ES5Q. 5D3A and HB9AUS were 20 over S9. I was 'fixed mobile' on a hill top just west of Lawrence, antenna a 1/4 wave whip for 10 meters with a MFJ tri-magnet mount on the roof of the car."

    KC0DEB, also in Kansas, noted "It was pretty neat to see how propagation moved on 10 meters, from North Africa through Central and Eastern Europe to the Baltic's and back down again to Southern France and Spain. Not all signals were strong, but the majority were Q5. 9A1A (Croatia) was one of the loudest ones I heard here from EU on 10m though. I think it was Paul N4PN behind the mic, pegging the S meter at 9+40db! Unbelievable!

    "Around 1800z I noted aurora polar flutter on SK3W and ES5Q and considerable QSB on many Europeans. HB9AUS was solid and very loud. There was a geomagnetic storm in progress at this time, with the Kp peaking at 7."

    On March 10, Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote: "Well today was a great example of conditions falling well short of the solar indices. All day long, the MUF on northern hemisphere paths were low, especially into Europe, and polar paths/northern Europe were almost closed. I heard nothing on 10 meters except for South America. There were 'no storms' present or forecast all day from WWV and the solar flux was pretty steady at 95 down from 97 on Wednesday. Other stations I worked agreed that conditions were poor as well. Fifteen meters seemed completely closed to Europe at 1815Z vs. Ten meters open well at same time Sunday.

    "Friday evening sounded very good on all bands. I was on 15 meters and then began working my way down to 75 meters by 0245Z before signing off around 0320Z. Signals from Japan were good on 15 meters at the start, along with one booming Alaskan, a few Hawaiians and several South Americans. Twenty meters was open to all of Europe except Russia, along with very loud signals from the northern Caribbean down into South America. Some zone 18/19 Asiatic Russians and Alaskans were loud as well. Forty meters was wide open to Europe at 0130Z and I also worked the United Arab Emirates. European signals were good on 75 meters, but precipitation static crashes were fairly high.

    "Sunday was an excellent example of wonderful conditions that were actually enhanced by an impending G3 level storm.  At 1513Z, I finally returned to the radio to find 10 meters open well to Europe, working two Swedish stations in about the first 8 QSOs. I had a nice run of European callers for about a half hour until signals weakened from most of the continent except Ireland, Italy, and the Balkans. Most signals were quite strong, including calls from Lithuania, Latvia, Norway, Finland, Poland, Macedonia, and Kaliningrad.

    "Following that, my run conditions turned quite strange on 10 meters with very weak Spanish, German, and French stations obviously hearing very loud signals from the Midwest from and even the West Coast!

    "Irish and some British stations were still quite loud in the 1600Z hour. The K index was 5 by 1800Z and 6 before the end of the contest. Around 1730Z, conditions on 10 meters improved with loud signals from Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Latvia as well as signals from France and Italy. A St Petersburg station called me at 1811Z for first Russian of the day. Most signals from northern Europe did not have flutter, but some from southwest Europe did.

    "After a break, returning at 1950Z, signals were loud from Spain and Portugal well into their evening and signals from even as close as Cuba were loud from the south with only moderate signals from Brazil/Argentina due to the high MUF to the south. Sunday was quite a celebration of 10 meters, a last gasp probably until the next cycle. Fifteen meters was excellent to all of Europe as well."

    We haven't heard from Martin McCormick, WB5AGZ, in Stillwater, Oklahoma in a very long time. But he contributed this on March 7:

    "Ten meters still has a bit of life left in it but the vital signs are becoming less frequent.

    "I have taken to leaving an FM receiver on 29.6 MHZ and recording its output to catch anything interesting from a discone antenna up about 50 feet.

    "It does occasionally spring to life for very brief periods, but nothing like it was during past solar cycles or even in the winter of 2014.

    "I live in almost the exact center of the contiguous United States and Winter F2 usually brings us signals from the extreme northeast down to about New Jersey, plus the extreme Northwest from roughly Canada to Central California. One also hears the extreme Southeast, mostly Florida and the Caribbean, plus far southwest as in Hawaii and the South Pacific.

    "If the F2 really gets going, the skip zone gets a bit larger and we start hearing further inland all around, but openings have been sparse this F2 season. The last two weeks have been a pretty good example -- mostly dead except for some openings on the low end of ten meters and a couple of surprises.

    "On Friday February 19, I began hearing a station in the first call district calling CQ on 29.6 between 0900 and 1000 or so (local, 1500-1600 UTC) with fades from nothing to almost full quieting and then it all died away.

    "On Sunday, March 6, I had forgotten the receiver was even on and then, at about 1600 Central time, I heard a brief burst of carrier which I first thought was a local station until there was another burst of carrier which was long enough to fade a bit. I next heard an unidentified station, which faded in and out with what sounded like possibly an Australian accent, but I never got the call sign.

    "Other partial QSOs were audible, and then a pipeline suddenly open with KH6RC on the big island of Hawaii talking to a station in Santa Rosa, California, which I could never hear from here. The Hawaiian station ranged from almost full quieting to a closed squelch, but was what I would call a good copy.

    "A few minutes later, it all vanished at around 1700 Central time, which is UTC-6 (2300 UTC). This is pretty typical of 10 meters when conditions are marginal.

    "F2 is only going to generally get worse as the solar activity declines, but in two more months, the Northern Hemisphere will be in Summer Sporadic E season and that can open up at any time of the day or night with lots of skip in the 400-800 mile range and cover frequencies from 10 meters through 6, and sometimes even two meters and 222-225 MHZ.

    "They don't call it Sporadic E for nothing. The VHF bands can be as dead as a doornail one minute and then booming with signals the next. Of course the next minute after that it may be back to dead again so one must strike while the iron is hot!"

    Here we go again with another scary story on the infamous and truly frightening nineteenth century Carrington Event, this time from regular contributor David Moore. http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2938/1#.Vt9KXkkKgmY[3]

    NOAA says (on March 11, 2016) that there is a less than 1-percent chance of solar flares today. There are sunspots all over the earth-facing solar image, but with solar activity remaining low, there seems to be little chance of any aurora or geomagnetic activity.

    Steve Shorey wrote: "I'm sure all those on the air noticed that HF conditions improved spectacularly over the weekend of March 5 and 6 - FoF2 over 9 MHz in Europe and 10 meters open to the West Coast of the US from UK. I'm sure the contesters were happy!

    "The Sunday improvement was just before the arrival of the predicted geomagnetic storm that triggered a G2 class storm and visible auroras. I have noticed on more than occasion in the last year that HF (and sometimes up to 6 meters) propagation improves markedly just before the storms arrive.

    "Of course, the immediate aftermath is poor conditions for a few days (FoF2 way down on Monday). Is there any known correlation between the sudden uptick in HF conditions just prior to a geomagnetic disturbance? For example, is the F2 intensely ionized by some mechanism just a few hours before?"

    My response: "I suspect what was happening is outlined in this piece by K9LA: h ttp://k9la.us/Positive_Electron_Density_Enhancements_Due_to_Geomagnetic_Field_A ctivity.pdf[4]

    "The STORM model he references has moved to: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ storm-time-empirical-ionospheric-correction[5]

    "I will cc K9LA and see what he thinks."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[10] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[11] .

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for March 3 through 9 were 50, 95, 68, 68, 61, 48, and 61, with a mean of 64.4. 10.7 cm flux was 98.7, 100.5, 96.2, 95.5, 94.1, 95.5, and 97.4, with a mean of 96.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 4, 35, 24, 8, and 7, with a mean of 12.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 2, 3, 19, 17, 6, and 6, with a mean of 8.6.

     


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
    [3] http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2938/1#.Vt9KXkkKgmY
    [4] http://k9la.us/Positive_Electron_Density_Enhancements_Due_to_Geomagnetic_Field_Activity.pdf
    [5] http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/storm-time-empirical-ionospheric-correction
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [11] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 18 19:43:43 2016
    03/18/2016

    Solar indicators were lower this week, while geomagnetic indicators were higher.

    Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers in our reporting week (March 10-16) were down 12.7 points to 51.7, and average daily solar flux was down 3.2 points to 93.6. Average planetary A index was up 2.8 points to 15.7, and average mid-latitude A index increased from 8.6 to 12.

    The latest forecast has a predicted solar flux of 95 on March 18-19, 90 on March 20, 85 on March 21-24, 90 on March 25, 95 on March 26-28, 100 on March 29-31, 95 on April 1-9, 93 on April 10, 90 on April 11-15, 95 on April 16-17, and 90 on April 18-19. Flux values then rise to 100 on April 25-27.

    Predicted planetary A index is 16, 8, 6 and 5 on March 18-21, then 6, 8 and 10 on March 22-24, 5 on March 25-31, then 8, 30, 25 and 8 on April 1-4, and 5 on April 5-6. Planetary A index rises to 25 on April 11 and 30 on April 29.

    Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, predicts geomagnetic conditions will be mostly quiet on March 18-19, quiet on March 20-21, mostly quiet March 22, quiet to unsettled March 23-24, quiet on March 25-26, quiet to unsettled March 27, quiet to active March 28-29, quiet to unsettled March 30, mostly quiet March 31 to April 1, active to disturbed April 2-3 (although the forecast is uncertain for these two days), quiet to active April 4, quiet to unsettled April 5-6, quiet to active April 7-8, mostly quiet April 9, active to disturbed April 10-12 and quiet to unsettled on April 13.

    Petr expects an increase on solar wind from coronal holes on March 23-24 (although like the April 2-3 forecast, this is uncertain) March 27-29, April 1-4, April 7-8, and April 10-12.

    Tomas Hood, NW7US, has posted a new, breathtakingly beautiful video of our Sun, at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgP0e1VHBxc[1]. This high-definition video shows the Sun in the 171-angstrom wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light. It covers a time period of January 2, 2015 to January 28, 2016 at a cadence of one frame every hour, or 24 frames per day. This time-lapse is repeated with narration by solar scientist Nicholeen Viall and contains close-ups and annotations.

    The Sun is always changing and NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is always watching. Launched on February 11, 2010, SDO keeps a 24-hour eye on the entire disk of the Sun, with a prime view of the graceful dance of solar material coursing through the Sun's atmosphere, the corona. SDO's sixth year in orbit was no exception.

    SDO's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) captures a shot of the Sun every 12 seconds in 10 different wavelengths. The images shown here are based on a wavelength of 171 angstroms, which is in the extreme ultraviolet range and shows solar material at around 600,000 Kelvin (about 1 million degrees F). In this wavelength it is easy to see the Sun's 25-day rotation.

    During the course of the video, the Sun subtly increases and decreases in apparent size. This is because the distance between the SDO spacecraft and the Sun varies over time. The image is, however, remarkably consistent and stable despite the fact that SDO orbits Earth at 6876 MPH and the Earth orbits the Sun at 67,062 miles per hour.

    Scientists study these images to better understand the complex electromagnetic system causing the constant movement on the Sun, which can ultimately have an effect closer to Earth, too: Flares and another type of solar explosion called coronal mass ejections can sometimes disrupt technology in space. Moreover, studying our closest star is one way of learning about other stars in the galaxy. NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland built, operates, and manages the SDO spacecraft for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington, DC.

    Tomas, the propagation columnist for both CQ Amateur Radio magazine, and The Spectrum Monitor, is also offering a self-study course on space weather and the propagation of radio waves, at http://sunspotwatch.com/swc[2].

    Jim Wilson, K5ND of Grapevine, Texas wrote on March 15: "Just thought I'd mention a very fun tropo opening this morning between Texas and the Southeast. It was my first experience with this and I wrote about it at http://www.k5nd.net/2016/03/tropospheric-ducting-march-2016/[3]"

    This weekend the vernal equinox occurs at 0430 UTC on Sunday, March 20. Now there is more energy from the sun impacting the ionosphere in the Northern Hemisphere, and this should enhance HF propagation.

    Toward the end of last week's bulletin (http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP011/2016[4]) we posted a question from Steve Shorey, G3ZPS, and a reference to a K9LA resource. K9LA responded this week: "My article doesn't say much about what actually happens in the atmosphere when the K index spikes up - it just shows that the ionization can be enhanced, and we have a model that could help show what's happening real-time.

    "What happens is the energy from geomagnetic activity results in waves propagating through the atmosphere, and that rearranges the major F2 region players - atomic oxygen for electron production and molecular nitrogen/oxygen for electron depletion."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[9] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[10] .

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for March 10 through 16 were 61, 48, 56, 43, 57, 44, and 53, with a mean of 51.7. 10.7 cm flux was 95, 94.2, 95, 92.6, 93.4, 94.1, and 91, with a mean of 93.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 23, 13, 4, 14, 24, and 22, with a mean of 15.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 21, 11, 4, 11, 17, and 13, with a mean of 12.

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgP0e1VHBxc
    [2] http://sunspotwatch.com/swc
    [3] http://www.k5nd.net/2016/03/tropospheric-ducting-march-2016/
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP011/2016
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [10] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 25 20:47:06 2016
    03/25/2016

    All of the indicators we track were lower over the past week (March 17-23), compared to the previous 7 days. Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 51.7 to 28.4, and average daily solar flux was 88.8, compared to 98.6 during the prior 7 days. Planetary A index was lower by 3.8 points to 11.9, and average mid-latitude A index (measured in Wallops Island, Virginia) was down from 12 to 8.6. Lower geomagnetic indices are generally considered a good thing for HF propagation.

    Looking at the record[1], we can see that until March 24, there were no new sunspot regions since March 17 when there was one, which followed two on the day before.

    Even though our sun is quiet, there is a seasonal variation which produces aurora around the vernal and autumnal equinoxes. (This year, the vernal, or spring, equinox was on Sunday, March 20, and the next autumnal or fall equinox this year will occur on Thursday, September 22. Spaceweather.com posted this article[2] explaining how this works:

    From NOAA and the USAF, predicted solar flux is 88, 90, 92, and 88 on March 25-28, 90 on March 29 through April 3, 95 on April 4-11, 90 on April 12-17 and 85 on April 18-20. Flux values are predicted to go back to 95 again after April 30.

    Also via NOAA, planetary A index for March 25-29 is predicted at 5, 8, 8, 10, and 8, then 5 on March 30 through April 1, then 30, 20 and 8 on April 2-4, 5 on April 5-7, then 10, 5, 15, 24, 22, and 20 on April 8-13, and 8 on April 14-15. The A index then jumps to 30 on April 29.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, sends us his geomagnetic forecast, but this week I want to test a different format. You can see the format we've been using in past bulletins at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[3]. See below for a link to my survey.

    Here is the proposed format:

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 25-April 20, 2016

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on March 25-26, April 1, 14, 17-18

    Mostly quiet on March 30-31, April 6, 10, 15-16, 19

    Quiet to unsettled on March 27, 29, April 7, 20

    Quiet to active on March 28, April 5, 8-9, 11, 13

    Active to disturbed on April 2-4, 12

    Increases in solar wind are expected on

    March (30) April 4-6, 9, 11, 14

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    See examples and vote[4].

    Ray Soifer, W2RS, in Green Valley, Arizona, on March 24 sent this info about working 30 meter gray line propagation yesterday morning:

    "Interesting propagation. I heard nothing from VK0EK[5] until half an hour before sunrise. He peaked 579 around sunrise, then faded and was gone 30-40 minutes after. Quite a gray line."





    VK0EK is on Heard Island. The DXpedition started this week. The distance from Ray's QTH to Heard Island is 10,945 miles - short path. More info[6] about Heard Island, from the Australian government.

    Max White, M0VNG, and earlier David Moore sent this link to an ultraviolet image[7] of our Sun.

    Martin McCormick, WB5AGZm of Stillwater, Oklahoma sent this piece in a message titled "Is it F2, or E?"

    "One of the first things a person notices when listening to HF signals coming from afar is a characteristic sound as if someone was continuously playing with tone controls. It is especially noticeable on AM signals and the wider the receiver passband, the more pronounced is the effect. This is known as selective fading because different frequencies fade in and out at different times.





    "The Earth's ionosphere is a shell or several shells of electrically-charged air molecules and atoms ranging from around 38 miles above us to about 310 miles high. The Sun and cosmic rays cause the molecules and atoms to loose electrons which gives them a positive charge. They can reflect radio signals and give us world-wide radio communication.





    "The reflecting layers are the E layer at about 56-93 miles plus the F layer complex which consists of several shells or layers that come, go and move around based on Solar and Geo magnetic activity.





    "The F2 layer is mostly responsible for short wave communications and the selective fading is due to more than one layer reflecting the same signal back to Earth. If the layers happen to be half of a wavelength apart, one receives two versions of the same signal in which one version is delayed enough to cause the carrier of an AM or FM signal to be cancelled out. Mother Nature just turned a normal AM signal in to a double-sideband suppressed carrier transmission.





    "FM signals are also altered. It is possible to receive FM on an AM receiver by tuning slightly off from center. It is called slope detection and has existed for as long as there has been FM. If you tune right on to the frequency, the audio is faint and muffled. F2 propagation, however, can cause a selective fade just below or above the carrier frequency such that if you are on the center frequency, the amplitude of the signal matches the deviation and you can hear fairly good audio as if the signal was both AM and FM. Nature automatically did that, also but the effect may not last more than a fraction of a second.





    "When Sporadic E is involved, signals still fade up and down but the E layer acts like a single thin film and there is no selective fading. Except for fades, signals sound local."





    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[12] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[13].

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[14].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15].

    Sunspot numbers for March 17 through 23 were 66, 29, 26, 26, 25, 13, and 14, with a mean of 28.4. The 10.7 cm flux was 91.6, 90.3, 89.4, 87.6, 88.9, 87.3, and 86.8, with a mean of 88.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 8, 18, 10, 8, 8, and 10, with a mean of 11.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 16, 6, 12, 6, 7, 6, and 7, with a mean of 8.6. 


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [2] http://www-ssc.igpp.ucla.edu/personnel/russell/papers/40/
    [3] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [4] https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/BP9FMTZ
    [5] http://vk0ek.org/
    [6] http://heardisland.antarctica.gov.au/
    [7] http://bit.ly/1RqC0Ar
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [13] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 1 19:49:49 2016
    04/01/2016

    Again this week solar indices crept lower. Average daily sunspot numbers declined 8 points to 20.4, and average daily solar flux went down 2.4 points to 86.4. Geomagnetic indices softened, with planetary A index down 3 points to 8.9, and mid-latitude A index down 1.2 points to 7.4.

    Just one new sunspot appeared since March 17, and that was one week later on March 24.

    Predicted solar flux values from USAF and NOAA saw a major downward shift on March 28. Overnight, the predicted average daily solar flux for the 38 days from April 4 through May 11 dropped from 91.6 to 82.2. You can see this by downloading the spreadsheet at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[1] .

    Predicted solar flux is 82 on April 1, 81 on April 2-3, 80 on April 4-5, 75 on April 6, 80 on April 7-9, 85 on April 10-11, 80 on April 12-17, 85 on April 18-24, 80 on April 25-28, 85 on April 29 through May 2, and 80 on May 3-6.

    If the daily solar flux declines to 75 as predicted for April 6, it will be the lowest flux value since the other side of this solar cycle, when it was 74.8 on November 22, 2010.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 26 and 18 on April 1-3, then 8, 18, and 14 on April 4-6, 10 on April 7-8, 5 and 10 on April 4-8, then 5, 15, 24, 22 and 20 on April 9-13, then 8 on April 14-15, and 5 on April 16-22, 12 on April 23-24, 8 on April 25, then 5 on April 26-28, then 25 on April 29-30, 8 on May 1, and 5 on May 2-4. The A index then rises to 24, 22 and 20 on May 8-10.

    From Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group:

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 1-27, 2016.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on April 20-22
    Mostly quiet on April 1, 14, 17-19, 27
    Quiet to unsettled on April 5-6, 9, 10, 15-16, 25-26
    Quiet to active on April 4, 7-8, 13, 23-24
    Active to disturbed on April 2-3, 11-12

    Increased solar wind from coronal holes are expected on April 1-4, 7-8, 10-13, and 23-24

    Do you like the new format for the above report? Whether you do, or not, or don't care, register your opinion at https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/BP9FMTZ[2]

    According to Spaceweather.com, "NOAA forecasters estimate a 45 percent chance of polar geomagnetic storms on April 1 when a CIR is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs (co-rotating interaction regions) are transition zones between fast and slow-moving solar wind streams. Density gradients and shock waves inside CIRs often do a good job sparking auroras."

    Here is a fascinating phenomenon reported by Jon Jones, N0JK: "I was on 10 meters fixed mobile this afternoon (March 27) playing in the CQ WPX SSB on 10 meters. At around 2050Z I was calling CU2ARA. When I released the mic button, I heard 'Japan Kilowatt.' I called again, released the push-to-talk switch, and heard the same response. It sounded like my voice, but shifted down 500 Hz or so, with a 5 X 5 strength and a hollow auroral-type sound.

    "I called several times to test it, saying my call once and releasing the switch, and I heard it every time! I went down the band and called CN2AA after working the CU2. I heard the same echo for a couple of calls, and then it was gone by 2100z.

    "It takes about 2 seconds to speak the phonetics 'Japan Kilowatt.' Considering how far my signal would have traveled in that amount of time, I don't understand how there could be enough energy left for me to receive, much less at a 5 X 5 level.

    "I suppose someone may have recorded my call and was playing it as deliberate QRM, but their timing would have to be awfully precise to play it every time I called, and on different spots on the band and only when the DX was listening, not transmitting.

    "The distance for single-hop F2 backscatter would be too short. I recall the K5CM tests for backscatter echoes on 6 and 10 meters. They are a fraction of a second. Ten meters was very loud to the Caribbean and West Africa at the time, as well as New Zealand."

    On a different subject, N0JK also commented: "I logged the VK0EK DXpedition March 28 on 30 meter CW. They had just come up on 30 meters at 0250z and worked them 'down 1 kHz.' My set up is 100 watts and my antenna is the rain gutter on our home! Catching VK0EK in the clear and before the pileup found them was a treat! 30 meters is an amazing band."

    A widely-held misconception is that space weather stalls and becomes uninteresting during periods of low sunspot number. In fact, by turning the solar cycle sideways (see https://www.vsp.ucar.edu/Heliophysics/pdf/Lika_sideways_SC.pdf[3] ), we see that Solar Minimum brings many interesting changes. For instance, the upper atmosphere of Earth collapses, allowing space junk to accumulate around our planet. The heliosphere shrinks, bringing interstellar space closer to Earth. Also, galactic cosmic rays penetrate the inner solar system with relative ease.

    Let's take a look at our 3-month moving average of sunspot numbers. The average for the three month period centered on February 2016 (including all daily sunspot numbers from January 1 through March 31) was 49. This is the lowest number seen since January 2011, when it was 35.3. The moving average peaked in March, 2014 when it was 148.2. Since May 2015 the averages were 77.7, 76.3, 69.1, 67.5, 64.5, 64.6, 58.5, 55.4, 53.5 and 49.

    A nice image of lone sunspot 2526 is at https://www.astrobin.com/243353/G/[4] . It was photographed by astrophotographer Alexander Sorokin in his backyard at Azov, in Rostov oblast in the Russian Federation.

    David Moore sent this link to yet another article about superflares. This one speculates about bigger flares on distant stars, and wonders if they could happen here in our solar system. I wouldn't pay much attention to the speculation in comments at the end of this piece, about our Earth being overdue for such an event. Seems to me that claiming we are due for another one is the same logic as the Gambler's Fallacy (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy[5] ).

    Here is the article: http://earthsky.org/space/could-our-sun-emit-killer-superflare[6]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[11] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[12] .

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[13].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14].

    Sunspot numbers for March 24 through 30 were 25, 24, 23, 23, 23, 13, and 12, with a mean of 28.4. 10.7 cm flux was 86.5, 85.5, 85.5, 88.2, 87.7, 87.8, and 83.8, with a mean of 88.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 3, 13, 10, 11, and 12, with a mean of 11.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 6, 2, 10, 9, 8, and 10, with a mean of 8.6.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [2] https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/BP9FMTZ
    [3] https://www.vsp.ucar.edu/Heliophysics/pdf/Lika_sideways_SC.pdf
    [4] https://www.astrobin.com/243353/G/
    [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
    [6] http://earthsky.org/space/could-our-sun-emit-killer-superflare
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [12] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 8 19:52:37 2016
    04/08/2016

    All solar and geomagnetic indicators declined again last week. Compared to the previous seven days, from March 31 through April 6 the average daily sunspot number slipped from 28.1 to 19.4. Average daily solar flux sank from 88.8 to 83.1, while average daily planetary A index went from 11.9 to 9.4. Average daily mid-latitude A index went to 7.6 from 8.6.

    The latest prediction (from April 7) has solar flux at 92 and 90 on April 8-9, 95 on April 10-15, 78 on April 16-17, 80 on April 18-22, 78 on April 23, 80 on April 24-28, 82 on April 29 to May 1, 78 on May 2-5, 82 on May 6-7, 80 on May 8-12 and 78 on May 13-14. Solar flux then continues to dither between 78 and 80 over the remainder of the 45 day forecast. You can find daily updates of this forecast at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[1] .

    Predicted planetary A index is 15 and 8 on April 8-9, 5 on April 10-12, then 12, 20, and 8 on April 13-15, 5 on April 16-20, 8 on April 21-22, then 5 and 12 on April 23-24, 10 on April 25-26, 8 on April 27, 5 on April 28-29, then 22, 8, 15 and 12 on April 30 through May 3, then 8 on May 4-5 and 5 on May 6-7.

    The big factor in bringing the week's average sunspot number down nearly 9 points was the fact that the daily sunspot number was 11 on March 31 through April 2. 11 is the lowest sunspot number we can possibly observe, unless there are zero sunspots, then the sunspot number is zero. Each sunspot group is counted as 10 points, and these are added to the total number of sunspots which count as one each, so a sunspot number of 11 is what you get with just one sunspot visible.

    Spaceweather.com reported early Thursday that on April 7, Earth is expected to cross a fold in the Heliospheric Current Sheet, which could trigger unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

    The Heliospheric Current Sheet separates regions of solar wind where the magnetic field points toward or away from the sun. See http://bit.ly/25MG4lW[2] for a continuous animation of this effect from 2001 until 2009. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliospheric_current_sheet[3] for more information.

    Sure enough, early on April 8 at 0007 UTC the Australia's Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic warning:

    "The geomagnetic conditions are currently at minor storm levels and are expected to remain at these levels for the next 6-12 hours. This is a combined effect of sustained strongly southwards IMF Bz (see http://bit.ly/1S6H68D[4] ) starting from 07/1800 UTC but with stable, weak solar wind speeds (380 km/s). However, the solar winds are expected to gradually increase later today in response to a small recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole moving into a geo-effective location on the solar disk. The aurora may be visible from as low as some parts of the state of Victoria, Australia, on the local night of 8 April.
    Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream from 08-09 April 2016."

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH reports:

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 08-May 04, 2016

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on April 17-18, 21-22, 27-28, May 4
    mostly quiet on April 19-20, 29, May 1, 3
    quiet to unsettled on April 10, 14-16, 23-25, May 2
    quiet to active on April 8-9, 13, and 26
    active to disturbed on April 11-12, 30

    Amplifications of the solar wind are expected on
    April 9-10, (14,) 20, (24-25,) 28-30

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[9] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[10] .

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for March 31 through April 6 were 11, 11, 11, 38, 23, 27, and 13, with a mean of 19.1. 10.7 cm flux was 81.7, 82.1, 81.5, 82.3, 83.4, 83.4, and 87.1, with a mean of 83.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 3, 22, 15, 7, 5, and 7, with a mean of 9.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 2, 15, 13, 6, 5, and 7, with a mean of 7.6.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [2] http://bit.ly/25MG4lW
    [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliospheric_current_sheet
    [4] http://bit.ly/1S6H68D
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [10] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 15 21:55:10 2016
    04/15/2016

    There was an upward bump in recent solar activity, with average daily sunspot number for the April 7-13 period at 32 (compared to 19.1 for the previous seven days) and average daily solar flux rising 23 points to 106.1.

    Note that what we are seeing now is the occasional uptick in solar activity as the Sun continues its decline to solar minimum, perhaps sometime around 2020.

    Average daily planetary A index rose three points to 12.4, and average daily mid-latitude A index from 7.6 to 8.3.

    For the near term, predicted solar flux is 110 on April 15-17, 105 on April 18-19, 95 on April 20-22, 100 on April 23, 95 on April 24-29, 90 on April 30 through May 3, then 95, 100, 105, and 110 on May 4-7, 112 on May 8-13, and 115 on May 14-17. Solar flux then drops below 100 on May 21 and beyond.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on April 15, 8 on April 16-18, 12 on April 19, 8 on April 20, 5 on April 21-22, 12 on April 23, 10 on April 24-25, 8 on April 26, 5 on April 27-28, then 20, 15 and 8 on April 29 through May 1, 5 on May 2-3, then 12 and 8 on May 4-5, 5 on May 6-7, 8 on May 8-9, then 18, 30 and 10 on May 10-12, then 5 on May 13-16 and 8 on May 17-18.

    Also on the subject of geomagnetism, we have two predictions from Prague. The first from the Institute of Geophysics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic. Tomas Beyer predicts for the short term:

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 15-21, 2016

    Quiet:  Apr 19-21
    Unsettled: Apr 15-18
    Active:  possible but unlikely Apr 17-18

    Geomagnetic activity summary:

    Maximum of geomagnetic activity has been recorded at Apr 12-13 when the local K-index reached K=5. The active conditions continued till morning Apr 14, then turned to unsettled.

    Next week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions only with possible active episode between Apr 17-18. Nevertheless, it may be only an isolated event. Then, we expect return of quiet to unsettled level.

    From Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group, he predicts:

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 15-May 11, 2016

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on April 21-22, May 6-7
    Mostly quiet on  April 17-18, 27-28, May 1-3, 8
    Quiet to unsettled on  April 15-16, 19-20, 25-26, May 11
    Quiet to active on April 23-24, 29-30, May 4-5, 9-10
    Active to disturbed on May (9-10)

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on April 18-20, 23-24, 28-30, May 4-5, 8-11

    Remarks: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Recently KL7JT asked a question which we forwarded to K9LA. Here is a link to the exchange, which includes links to the images referenced. Just click Download This File at each link.

    http://bit.ly/22z8pI0[1]

    Here is an update on the NASA STEREO mission:

    http://go.nasa.gov/1IPQCIT[2]

    And this link is to the STEREO tool itself:

    http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[3]

    Bill Liles, NQ6Z, wrote about a QSO Today podcast (Number 081) he heard:

    "I am curious about one comment you made. You were asked about effect from solar or lunar eclipse and you answered 'no.'

    "I agree with that answer re lunar eclipse. I am wondering about the reason for the answer with respect to solar eclipse. During the time of the eclipse over a patch of the ionosphere, which granted is only a few minutes, the Sun's radiation is blocked so one should see recombination in the D layer and thus it will not be as absorptive as during normal daytime. Thus MF and low HF freqs should experience nighttime propagation characteristics.

    "This effect, as far as I have found, was first observed in 1912. Appleton also used this effect in the 1929s to help answer the question of what causes the ionization by the Sun, particles or electromagnetic waves.

    "Solar eclipse effects have been the subject of many scholarly reports and a few books using real data.

    "Thus my curiosity as to why your answer was 'no?' Were you meaning on a more global scale? As it seems true on a local scale.

    "BTW, ARRL and Scientific American did a study on this effect in the 1920s and one comment was that 75 meters behaved as if it was nighttime."

    The answer?  I was wrong.  In response, Bill sent a pdf about effects on radio from a solar eclipse in 1999, which you can download here: http://bit.ly/1Wvrk7c[4]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[9] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[10] .

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for April 7 through 13 were 26, 27, 29, 26, 41, 34, and 41, with a mean of 32. 10.7 cm flux was 92.3, 98.3, 105.5, 110.6, 116.6, 111.3, and 108.2, with a mean of 106.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 9, 3, 7, 6, 19, and 26, with a mean of 12.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 10, 6, 3, 6, 5, 12, and 16, with a mean of 8.3.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/22z8pI0
    [2] http://go.nasa.gov/1IPQCIT
    [3] http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [4] http://bit.ly/1Wvrk7c
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [10] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 22 19:02:14 2016
    04/22/2016

    Over the past reporting week, April 14-20, average daily sunspot numbers rose from 32 to 40, while average daily solar flux declined from 106.1 to 100.8.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 12.4 to 10.9, but average daily mid-latitude A index rose slightly from 8.3 to 8.9.

    The mid-latitude A index uses 3-hour data from a magnetometer at Fredericksburg, Virginia, and the planetary numbers are derived from readings at Sitka, Alaska; Meanook, AB, Canada; Ottawa ON, Canada; Fredericksburg, Virginia; Hartland, UK; Wingst, Germany; Niemegk, Germany; and Canberra, Australia. An example of a magnetic observatory is the one in Alberta, Canada at Meanook. See http://www.geomag.nrcan.gc.ca/obs/mea-en.php[1] for a photo and history.

    We continue to see weak sunspot groups. There was a new one on April 13, another on April 16 and another on April 20.

    The latest (Thursday, April 21, 2016) prediction has solar flux values at 75 on April 22, 80 on April 23-28, then 88 and 98 on April 29-30, 95 on May 1-2, 100 on May 3-5, 95 on May 6, 98 on May 7-12, 92 on May 13-14, 102 on May 15-16, 95 on May 17-18, 97 on May 19-20 and 95 on May 21-26.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 16 and 12 on April 21-23, 10 on April 25-26, then 8, 5, 20, 15 and 8 on April 27 through May 1, 5 on May 2-3, 12 on May 4, 5 on May 5-8, then 18, 25, 20, 8 and 5 on May 9-13, 12 on May 14-16, 8 on May 17, 5 on May 18-19, then 10 and 12 on May 20-21, and 10 on May 22-23. The planetary A index then rises to 20 on May 26, and back to 5 for six of the seven days ending the 45 day forecast period.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, sends us the following geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 22-May 18, 2016.

    "The geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on April 27, May 7, 12, 16-18
    Mostly quiet on April 22, 28, May 1, 3, 6, 13, 15
    Quiet to unsettled on April 25-26, May 2, 4, 8
    Quiet to active on April 24, 29, May 9, 11, 14
    Active to disturbed on April 23, 30, May 5, 10

    Increased solar wind is expected on April 23-26, 29-30, May 4-5, 10-11, 14."

    Dick Bingham, W7WKR, sent a link for a balloon flight (unmanned, or maybe unpersoned) using amateur radio with WSPR on 20 and 30 meters, providing telemetry and position data. See http://bit.ly/243HFCd[2]. Dig deep, there is a lot of fascinating data there. Note the circuitous route the balloon took.

    David Moore sent this link to some SDO images: http://bit.ly/243MBqR[3]
    Pay no attention to the subsequent "NASA Flat Earth Cover-Up" video which may follow.

    Tomas Hood, NW7US, would like to share this with us:

    "Take a front-seat view of the Sun in this 30-minute ultra-high definition movie in which NASA SDO gives us a stunning look at our nearest star.

    "This movie provides a 30-minute window to the Sun as seen by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which measures the irradiance of the Sun that produces the ionosphere. SDO also measures the sources of that radiation and how they evolve.

    "Charged particles are created in our atmosphere by the intense X-rays produced by a solar flare. The solar wind, a continuous stream of plasma (charged particles), leaves the Sun and fills the solar system with charged particles and magnetic field. There are times when the Sun also releases billions of tons of plasma in what are called coronal mass ejections. When these enormous clouds of material or bright flashes of X-rays hit the Earth they change the upper atmosphere. It is changes like these that make space weather interesting.

    "Sit back and enjoy this half-hour 4k video of our star: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sq4PlyNkm2Y[4] "

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B[9] and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5[10].

    Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for April 14 through 20 were 45, 69, 51, 35, 28, 28, and 24, with a mean of 40. 10.7 cm flux was 111.1, 112.4, 113.2, 102.1, 94.6, 89.1, and 83.2, with a mean of 100.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 9, 12, 19, 5, 3, and 5, with a mean of 10.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 14, 9, 8, 17, 7, 3, and 4, with a mean of 8.9.



    [1] http://www.geomag.nrcan.gc.ca/obs/mea-en.php
    [2] http://bit.ly/243HFCd
    [3] http://bit.ly/243MBqR
    [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sq4PlyNkm2Y
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B
    [10] http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 29 18:04:46 2016
    04/29/2016

    At 0121 UTC on April 29 the Australian Space Forecast Centre released a geomagnetic disturbance warning for April 30 and May 1. Increased geomagnetic activity is predicted due to high speed solar wind coming from a coronal hole. There is a chance of minor storm levels.

    Over the past reporting week (April 21-27), average daily sunspot numbers rose from 40 to 43.3, and average daily solar flux declined from 100.8 to 81.9. This is compared to the previous seven days.

    Average planetary A index went from 10.9 to 9.4, and average mid-latitude A index rose from 8.9 to 11.6.

    Predicted solar flux (from the Thursday April 28 forecast) is 95 on April 29-30, 92 on May 1-2, 90 on May 3-4, 95 on May 5-10, 100 on May 11, 95 on May 12-15, 82 on May 16-24, 80 on May 25, 82 on May 26-29, and 95 on May 30 through June 6.

    Predicted planetary A index (also from April 28) is 14, 26, 20, 8 and 5 on April 29 through May 3, then 12 on May 4-5, 10 on May 6, then 5 on May 7-8, then 18, 25 and 20 on May 9-11, and 8, 5 and 12 on May 12-14, 5 on May 15-18, then 12, 15 and 12 on May 19-21, 8 on May 22-23, 5 on May 24-25, then 10, 18 and 12 on May 26-28, and 5 on May 29-30, 12 on May 31, and 5 again on June 1-4.

    Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sends the following geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 29-May 25, 2016.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on May 6-7, 16-17
    Mostly Quiet on May 1-3, 8, 15, 22-25
    Quiet to Unsettled on May 12-13, 18, 21
    Quiet to Active on April 29, May 4-5, 9-11, 14, 19-20
    Active to Disturbed on April 30, May (9-10) [Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement]

    Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on April 29-30, May 4-5, 8-11, 19-21

    NASA released a video of an April 17 solar flare: http://bit.ly/1WU1nOO[1]
     Ted Leaf, K6HI, of Kona sent this similar item: http://earthsky.org/space/stunning-view-of-solar-flare-april17-2016?[2]

    Spaceweather.com reports Earth will cross a fold in the heliospheric current sheet on April 29 or 30.

    http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/HCS.html[3]

    They go on to report, "This is called a 'solar sector boundary crossing,' and it could trigger geomagnetic activity around Earth's poles. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60 percent chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms on April 29."

    We see there were multiple sunspots in evidence in this view of April 28, although none have much magnetic strength: http://bit.ly/21gMPsW[4]

    Now on April 29, you can see the sunspots have moved in one day: http://bit.ly/1SCKUt1[5]

    Sharp-eyed reader Red Willoughby, KC4LE, of Birmingham, Alabama noticed some averages that didn't look right in the ARRL Letter released yesterday, April 28. He may have wondered why the average daily solar flux was over 100, when all of the daily flux values for the week were under one-hundred.

    I goofed. The numbers were all correct, but the averages were from last week. Those averages have been corrected in today's bulletin.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for April 21 through 27 were 35, 22, 11, 46, 38, 65, and 86, with a mean of 43.3. 10.7 cm flux was 76.8, 76.6, 78.7, 81.8, 81.9, 85.2, and 92.6, with a mean of 81.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 13, 12, 11, 8, 7, and 10, with a mean of 9.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 23, 13, 11, 11, 6, 6, and 11, with a mean of 11.6.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/1WU1nOO
    [2] http://earthsky.org/space/stunning-view-of-solar-flare-april17-2016?
    [3] http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/HCS.html
    [4] http://bit.ly/21gMPsW
    [5] http://bit.ly/1SCKUt1
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 6 18:07:20 2016
    05/06/2016

    Solar activity increased last week, making one of those occasional upticks on the way down from the peak of the solar cycle.

    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 43.3 to 74.7, and average daily solar flux increased by ten points to 91.9. Average planetary A index went from 9.4 to 11.3 and average mid-latitude A index went from 11.6 to 10.7.

    At 0415 UTC on May 2 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning. At the end of the day, the planetary A index was 31, indicating a geomagnetic storm.

    The latest forecast has solar flux at 90 on May 6, 85 on May 7-12, 90 on May 13, 95 on May 14-15, 90 on May 16, 82 on May 17-22 and 85 on May 23, 90 on May 24, 95 on May 25-28, then 90, 95 and 105 on May 29-31, 110 on June 1-2, 105 on June 3, 100 on June 4-6, and 95 on June 7-11. Solar flux is forecast to drop below 90 on June 12 and beyond.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on May 6, 12 and 18 on May 7-8, 25 on May 9-10, then 20 on May 11, 8 on May 12-13, 12 on May 14 and 5 on May 15-18, and 12, 15, 12, 8, 5 and 10 on May 19-24, and 5 on May 25-27. The next active days are June 6-8, when the planetary A index is expected to be 18, 25 and 20.

    The OK1HH geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 6-June 1, 2016.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on May 7-8, 16-17, 26-28, June 1
    Mostly Quiet on May 9, 14, 18, 22, 29, 31
    Quiet to Unsettled on May 6, 13, 21, 23-25
    Quiet to Active on May 12, 15, 19-20
    Active to Disturbed on May 10-11, 30

    Increases in the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on May 7, 12-14, (17,) 22-26, 31, and June 1.

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    David Moore sent this link http://huff.to/236Xxl8[1] to an article titled "Spectacular Solar Flare Captured in New NASA Video." The flare occurred on April 17. Thar day, the high latitude College A index (measured at Fairbanks, Alaska) was 33. But a few days earlier the index was higher, at 45 and 47 on April 13-14.

    As the season shifts toward summer, you may notice some changes in HF propagation. For instance, on 15 meters from California to Japan back at the vernal equinox you would see good strong signals, with openings beginning around 2100 UTC and fading out around 0430 UTC. The path should be open 75-100 percent of the time from 2130-0300 UTC. But by the middle of this month you might see signals several dB lower and the path not as robust, with the probability of openings being more toward the 50-75 percent range. Openings would begin around 2000 UTC and signals should start getting weaker after 0300 UTC.

    On 40 meters over the same path at the vernal equinox (around March 23) we would see the band start to open after 0630 UTC with strong signals through the night until around 1530 UTC. But by the middle of May, the period that this path is open is much shorter, starting around 0830 UTC and fading out after 1400 UTC.

    Looking the other direction, from California to Atlanta, Georgia during the spring, the strongest 40 meter signals over that path would be between 0230-1200 UTC. But by the middle of May that opening would shift to 0300-1030 UTC.

    You can play with these numbers yourself, varying seasons, locations and frequencies by using a propagation prediction program. A free one, W6ELprop is available from K9LA. His web site is http://k9la.us/[2] and he has lots of useful information on radio propagation. The link to propagation programs is at http://k9la.us/html/tutorials.html[3] .  An alternate source is at http://brucerichards.com/army/w6elprop.htm[4] .

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for April 28 through May 4 were 84, 82, 82, 76, 75, 57, and 67, with a mean of 74.7. 10.7 cm flux was 94.9, 92.4, 94, 92.2, 89.8, 90, and 90.1, with a mean of 91.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 7, 16, 31, 11, and 5, with a mean of 11.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 3, 9, 16, 26, 11, and 4, with a mean of 10.7.



    [1] http://huff.to/236Xxl8
    [2] http://k9la.us/
    [3] http://k9la.us/html/tutorials.html
    [4] http://brucerichards.com/army/w6elprop.htm
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 13 20:14:40 2016
    05/13/2016

    There was a whopper of a geomagnetic storm on Mother's Day, May 8, when the planetary A index reached 70. In Alaska, the college A index was 117. Aurora was visible in North America well south of the northern tier states.

    Average daily sunspot number dropped 15.6 points to 59.1 over the past week, and average daily solar flux declined 3.1 points to 88.8.

    Average daily planetary A index over the same period doubled from 11.3 to 22.6, and average daily mid-latitude A index rose 3.9 points to 14.6.

    The latest prediction has planetary A index at 5 on May 13-14, then 8, 15, 12, 6, 5, 15 and 12 on May 15-21, 5 on May 22-23, 10 on May 24, 5 on May  25-27, then 10, 25 and 10 on May 28-30, 5 on May 31 through June 1, 12 on June 2-3, then 30, 32, 25, 15 and 8 on June 4-8, and 5 on June 9-10. Planetary A index then rises to 25 on June 25, but that is a long way off.

    Predicted solar flux is 95 and 97 on May 13-14, 100 on May 15-16, then 95, 93, 90 and 85 on May 17-20, 82 on May 21-22, 85 on May 23-25, 90 on May 26-30, 88 on May 31 through June 2, 85 on June 3-6, 90 on June 7-9, 95 on June 10-11, then 90 and 85 on June 12-13, 82 on June 14-18, and 85 on June 19.

    Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group says the geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on May 16-17, 25-26
    Mostly quiet on May 15, 22-24, 31, June 7-8
    Quiet to unsettled on May 13-14, 18, 21, 27, 30
    Quiet to active on May 19-20, 28-29, June 1-2, 3, 6
    Active to disturbed on May (28), June 4-5

    Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on May 19-21, 28-29, June 1-6

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    We missed it last week, but here is the latest update on our 3-month moving average. According to our numbers, cycle 24 peaked with a sunspot number of 148.2 in the three months centered on March 2014.

    Beginning with the 3 months centered on January, 2015, the 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers was 98.2, 78.1, 68.2, 72.4, 77.7, 76.3, 69.1, 67.5, 64.5, 64.6, 58.5, 55.4, 53.5, 49 and 45.3. The numbers reflect the steady decline of solar cycle 24.

    According to http://1.usa.gov/1HOVlDP[1] it looks like the next solar minima should be in 2019. These are international sunspot numbers, but the sunspot numbers we report in this bulletin are from the NOAA Space Environment Service Center, ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt[2] .

    David Moore sent this piece from Science Daily about solar wind:

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/05/160511102655.htm[3]

    Now here is a surprising and counter-intuitive assertion. http://bit.ly/1rJxxki[4] claims "When sunspots are minimal, the solar magnetic field is at a maximum."

    As mentioned in last week's bulletin, Carl, K9LA, offers the W6ELProp installation file, if you have trouble downloading it from www.qsl.net/w6elprop[5].

    Note that the latest version of W6ELProp is Version 2.70, which was in the 2002 time frame. Thus it is likely that Shel, W6EL, never checked it out with newer operating systems like Vista and Windows 7, 8 and 10. Shel, W6EL, became a Silent Key in April 2015, and as far as Carl is aware the source code for W6ELProp was never released to anyone.

    If anyone has successfully installed W6ELProp on a PC using Vista or Windows 7, 8 or 10, Carl would like to hear from you. Carl can be reached at k9la@arrl.net[6].

    Actually, I have run it successfully on Windows 7 and 10, but Carl pointed out that the Maps feature doesn't work.

    The Solar Plotting Utility mentioned in past bulletin doesn't run on Windows 7 or 10, but that is easily solved by running Windows XP as a virtual machine within the newer Windows versions.

    In Windows 10 it is also possible to run older programs in Compatibility Mode.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for May 5 through May 11 were 55, 56, 51, 42, 68, 70, and 72, with a mean of 59.1. 10.7 cm flux was 87.1, 89.6, 88, 85.6, 88.5, 88.7, and 93.9, with a mean of 88.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 15, 10, 70, 33, 16, and 6, with a mean of 22.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 12, 9, 32, 21, 15, and 6, with a mean of 14.6.

     


    [1] http://1.usa.gov/1HOVlDP
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [3] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/05/160511102655.htm
    [4] http://bit.ly/1rJxxki
    [5] http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop
    [6] mailto:k9la@arrl.net?subject=W6ELProp
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 20 18:31:03 2016
    05/20/2016

    Average daily solar flux and sunspot numbers rose over the past week. The average daily sunspot number rose 5 points to 64.1 while average daily solar flux was up 11.6 points to 100.4. Geomagnetic indices were quieter, with average planetary A index decreasing from 22.6 to 9.9 and average mid-latitude A index dropping from 14.6 to 10.9.

    USAF and NOAA predict solar flux at 100 on May 20-24, 95 on May 25-26, 90 on May 27-28, 95 on May 29, 100 on May 30 through June 1, 95 on June 2-7, 100 on June 8-9, then 95, 100, and 105 on June 10-12, 100 on June 13-16, 95 on June 17-21, 90 on June 22-24, 95 on June 25 and 100 on June 26-28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22, 16, 12 and 6 on May 20-23, 5 on May 24-27, then 15, 25, and 10 on May 28-30, 5 on May 31 and June 1, 12 on June 2-3, then 35, 30 and 15 on June 4-6, 5 on June 7-9, then 8, 15, 25 and 12 on June 10-13, then 8, 18, 25 and 12 on June 14-17, then 8, 5 and 10 on June 18-20, and 5 on June 21-23.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sends a weekly geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 20-June 15, 2016.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on May 23, 26-27, June 9-10
    Mostly quiet on May 24, June 3, 14-15
    Quiet to unsettled on May 25, 28, June 1-2, 7-8, 11,
    Quiet to active on May 20-22, 29, 31, Jun 4-5, 12-13
    Active to disturbed on May 30, June 6

    Increased solar wind from coronal holes is expected on May 22-26, June 1-2, 6-8, 14-15.

    Jeff Hartley, N8II, of Shepherdstown, West Virginia sent this report about what he is hearing in FM19ck.

    "It seems like low MUF conditions are here to stay, but 15 meters is open to southern Europe most days starting around 1400-1500 Z.

    "I operated the 7th call area QSO party May 7-8 until 0320Z on the 8th. Fifteen meter activity was way down, especially on phone, and propagation was poor, but there were solid signals from AZ and NV from 1600Z through past 2130Z, and all states of the 7th area were worked during the opening, but the more northern areas MT, ID (worst), WA and OR were mostly not that loud and in and out. The peak was around 2000Z. My 15 meter QSO total was 49 vs 167 in 2015; SSB was 10 vs 65.

    "What was lost on 15 meters was gained on 20 meters with noticeably less absorption mid-day due to lower solar flux allowing for more QSOs, although some mobiles were still lost in the noise. Things really started cooking around 1940Z through 0100Z and I was able run quite a few stations on phone and even some on CW. Mobiles were easy copy, but phone activity did not seem all that high. The total tally was 350 20 meter QSOs (my best ever) vs 258 last year.

    "Forty meters was affected by the beginning of the solar storm, but not that badly. I made more QSOs than last year and most stations were easy copy. It is about 0300Z (2300 EDT) before the Sun sets on the west coast at this time of year, so I did not start working OR/WA until around 0215Z. Almost all of the signals, even AZ, sounded hollow with flutter, but the signal levels were down only slightly from what I would expect. In fact, W7RN in NV was S9+ 25-30 dB without flutter. Obviously, the K index was high. It was very easy to tell the New England QSO party W1s from the 7s just by their signal quality. I did not wait long enough for 80 meters to open before going QRT. I operated low power, 150 W.

    "Sunday propagation was very poor due to the solar storm and that lingered into Monday with 15 meters almost totally dead."

    We received a couple of comments from W6ELProp users.

    Lloyd Rasmussen, W3IUU, of Kensington, Maryland wrote: "I am blind and use the Window-Eyes screen reader. The text output of W6ELProp works just fine for me under Windows 7 and 10."

    John Leroy, W4JKL of Mount Sterling, Kentucky wrote: "W6ELProp can be installed and run under Wine for Linux. I run it on my Debian 8 Jessie box with Wine set to emulate Windows XP. I installed it on Wine drive_c in the root directory. Once you run an on-screen path prediction and close the window, you must minimize the program and then maximize it again to see the menu entries. The other functions don't require this. The mapping functions work correctly. Thanks for reminding me to try this. I normally use HamCap by VE3NEA under Wine and it works correctly. IonoProbe by VE3NEA also works correctly under Wine and will feed the latest online data to HamCap, but another tool is always welcome!"

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[1]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[2]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[3]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[4].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[5].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[6].

    Sunspot numbers for May 12 through 18 were 67, 76, 88, 78, 76, 36, and 28, with a mean of 64.1. 10.7 cm flux was 92, 93.4, 101.2, 108.4, 102, 103.2, and 102.3, with a mean of 100.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 10, 13, 13, 13, and 8, with a mean of 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 9, 10, 12, 15, 14, and 12, with a mean of 10.9.

     

     


    [1] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [2] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [3] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 27 19:51:51 2016
    05/27/2016

    Solar indices pulled back this week, when average sunspot number was 25.3 for the May 19-25 period, down 38.8 points from the previous week's average of 64.1.

    Likewise, average daily solar flux over the same period was 97, down 3.4 points from the previous week's average of 100.4.

    Planetary A index average was 7.1, down 2.8 points from 9.9, and average daily mid-latitude A index was 7, down 3.9 points from 10.9.

    We should continue to see this overall decline in solar activity for at least the next four years.  Compared to past cycles, this one is considerably weaker. But I wouldn't worry much about some reports in the media suggesting we face several future solar cycles that would be very weak. Although astrophysicists know much more about the Sun than in the past, and have far better tools and resources for monitoring day-to-day activity, the record so far shows that long range forecasts have varied all over the place, and have not proved consistent or true.

    Remember Mausumi Dikpati? She was the scientist who predicted that the current solar cycle (24) would be huge and record breaking, at least compared to the previous four solar cycles. It did not turn out the way we hoped. We might consider the same for more pessimistic forecasts in popular news media.

    Some links concerning Ms Dikpati and her forecast:

    http://www.hao.ucar.edu/Public/about/Staff/dikpati/[1]

    http://www.hao.ucar.edu/Public/about/Staff/dikpati/CV.html[2]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausumi_Dikpati[3]

    The latest forecast from NOAA/USAF shows solar flux at 90 and 85 on May 27-28, 90 on May 29-30, 85 on May 31 through June 2, 90 on June 3-7, 95 on June 8, 100 on June 9-10, 95 on June 11-12, 90 on June 13-16, 85 on June 17-20, 90 on June 21-25 (except 85 on June 23), 95 on June 26-30 and 90 on July 1-4.

    The latest prediction for planetary A index is 12, 8, 14, 20 and 12 on May 27-31, then 5, 8, 15, 35, 30 and 15 on June 1-6, 5 on June 7-10, 12 on June 11-13, 8 on June 14-15, then 5, 15, 12, and 10 on June 16-19, 5 on June 20-21, then 12, 10, 8, 5, 15, 12 and 8 on June 22-28, 15 on June 29-30, then 35, 30 and 15 on July 1-3, and 5 on July 4-7.

    Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, from the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent us his geomagnetic forecast a day early this week.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 27-June 22, 2016

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on June 19-20
    Mostly quiet on May 31, June 7-8, 21
    Quiet to unsettled on May 27, 30, June 9-10, 14-16, 18, 22
    Quiet to active on May 28-29, June 1-3, 6, 11-13, 17
    Active to disturbed on May (28-29), June 4-5

    Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected:
    on May 28-29, June 1-6, 10-13, 17-18

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Here are a couple of articles about a giant sunspot last week and about changes in Earth's magnetic field:

    http://www.siue.edu/news/2016/05/Sunspot.shtml[4]

    http://bit.ly/1WZI86g[5]

    N8II sent this report on Wednesday, May 25:

    "There was a good Asian opening on 20 meter CW this AM. I heard XV9NPS about S5, worked BX2AK S2-5 and worked a JA who was S8 - all well past the usual peak of propagation around 1300Z today."

    Douglas Moore sent this article from Science Daily about researchers in the Antarctic discovering new facets of space weather: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/05/160520124427.htm[6]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for May 19 through 25 were 38, 43, 17, 15, 13, 24, and 27, with a mean of 25.3. 10.7 cm flux was 98.8, 99.5, 97.8, 97.4, 97.4, 94.3, and 93.6, with a mean of 97. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 6, 15, 7, 5, 6, and 3, with a mean of 7.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 6, 16, 5, 4, 6, and 4 with a mean of 7.


    [1] http://www.hao.ucar.edu/Public/about/Staff/dikpati/
    [2] http://www.hao.ucar.edu/Public/about/Staff/dikpati/CV.html
    [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausumi_Dikpati
    [4] http://www.siue.edu/news/2016/05/Sunspot.shtml
    [5] http://bit.ly/1WZI86g
    [6] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/05/160520124427.htm
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 3 18:23:10 2016
    06/03/2016

    Solar indices barely changed over the past week, with average daily sunspot numbers rising from 25.3 to 33, and average daily solar flux dropping from 97 to 87.4.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 7.1 to 8.9, and average daily mid-latitude A index rose from 7 to 9.

    Predicted solar flux for the near term is 80 on June 3-7, 85 on June 8-10, 80 on June 11-17, 85 on June 18-21, 80 on June 22-26, 75 on June 27 through July 4, and 80 on July 5-14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 35, 32, 15 and 8 on June 3-7, 5 on June 8-10, 12 on June 11-13, 8 on June 14-15, then 5, 15 and 10 on June 16-18, 5 on June 19-22, then 10, 12, 8, 20 and 12 on June 23-27, 5 on June 28-29, then 8, 15, 20 and 15 on June 30 through July 3, then 5 on July 4-7 and 12 on July 8-10 and 8 on July 11-12.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 3-29, 2016:

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on June 9, 20, 22.
    Mostly Quiet on June 8, 15-17, 21, 23, 29.
    Quiet to Unsettled on June 7, 10, 13-14, 28.
    Quiet to Active on Jun 3-4, 5-6, 11-12, 19, 24-25, 26-27.
    Active to Disturbed on June 18.

    Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on June (6 -)7-8, (14 -)16-17, (26, 30)

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Reliability of predictions is slightly reduced.

    Some interesting tools for examining sunspot data:

    http://harvard.voxcharta.org/tag/sunspot-databases/[1]

    Also, a paper about the same:

    http://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.00669.pdf[2]

    Joe, K1YOW, of Harvard, Massachusetts wrote: "I was wondering. For the month of May, almost every day, there was a good 6 meter SpE (sporadic-E) opening in Europe, yet here in North America, openings were sparse. When looking at the DX maps every day, there seemed to be a SpE cloud somewhere over Europe - sometimes over France, then Greece, then Germany, then Eastern Russia, etc. Yet, whatever is causing the SpE clouds to appear over Europe does not seem to be happening here in North America.

    "Is there any insight why SpE clouds would form over one area so frequently and with such good strength and not over other areas? If it was random, then I would expect to see SpE clouds now and then everywhere over the planet. Europe seems to be the hot spot of 6 meter activity these days for whatever reasons."

    I don't know, but I will check. It seems that they are sporadic, but not random with any even distribution, but I don't think that answer is very helpful.

    Tracking our 3-month average of daily sunspot numbers, remember that the peak in the current cycle was centered on February and March of 2014, at 146.4 and 148.2.

    For the past year that moving average was 77.7, 76.3, 69.1, 67.5, 64.5, 64.6, 58.5, 55.4, 53.5, 49, 45.3 and 43.1. So that last number sums all the sunspot numbers from March 1 to May 31, which is 3,964, and divides by the number of days, which is 92, yielding a smoothed sunspot number of approximately 43.08696.

    A few days ago there was a big drop in the predicted solar flux numbers over the next month and a half. The daily forecast comes to us from ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[3] . If you look at the solar flux forecasts issued on May 28 and compare the numbers to those issued on May 29, you will see the predicted average over the 7 days from May 31 to June 6 shift from 91.4 down to 75. Another area to inspect are the forecasts issued on May 29 and May 30 for the period from June 7 through June 14.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for May 26 through June 1 were 30, 19, 31, 25, 56, 40, and 30, with a mean of 33. 10.7 cm flux was 91.7, 90.4, 87.7, 83, 86.2, 86.6, and 86, with a mean of 87.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 10, 14, 7, 11, 10, and 6, with a mean of 8.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 12, 13, 8, 9, 10, and 7 with a mean of 9.

     


    [1] http://harvard.voxcharta.org/tag/sunspot-databases/
    [2] http://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.00669.pdf
    [3] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 10 18:43:28 2016
    06/10/2016

    I thought it was too early in the decline of this solar cycle to start seeing days with no sunspots (when the sunspot number is zero), but I was wrong.

    There were no sunspots on June 3-6. 2015 had zero spotless days, 2014 had just one, and there were no spotless days in 2012-2013. There were just two spotless days in 2011, so we have already seen twice the number of spotless days that 2011 had. 2010 had 51 spotless days, and 2009 had 260 spotless days.

    The last time there were four or more spotless days was December 18-24, 2010 when there were no sunspots for an entire week.

    The average daily sunspot number dropped to 7.7 this week, from 33 the week before. Average daily solar flux went from 87.4 to 80.7.  Geomagnetic indicators were up slightly, with planetary A index going from 8.9 to 11.6 and mid-latitude A index from 9 to 9.4.

    As of Thursday, June 9, sunspots and solar flux both seemed to be recovering.

    Daily sunspot number on June 7-9 was 12, 15 and 22, and daily solar flux was 78.5, 80.1 and 85.2.

    Predicted solar flux for the near term is 85, 90 and 95 on June 10-12, 90 on June 13-14, 95 on June 15-16, 90 on June 17-20, 85 on June 21-24, 80 on June 25-28, 78 on June 29 through July 4, 82 on July 5-7, 85 on July 8-11, 90 on July 12-17 and 85 on July 18-21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 14, and 18 on June 10-12, then 12, 8 and 6 on June 13-15, 10 on June 16-18, 5 on June 19-22, then 10, 12 and 8 on June 23-25, 10 on June 26-27, 5 on June 28 through July 1, then 25, 20 and 8 on July 2-4, 5 on July 5-8, 12 on July 9-10, then 8 on July 11-12, then 5, 15 and 10 on July 13-15, and 5 on July 16-19.

    Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sends his geomagnetic forecast:

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on June 19-20, July 1
    Mostly quiet on June 15-16, 21-22, 29-30, July 5-6
    Quiet to unsettled on June 10, 14, 25, 28, July 4
    Quiet to active on June 11-13, 17-18, 23-24, 26-27
    Active to disturbed on June (18), July 2-3

    Increases of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on June 11-13, 17-18, 23-24, 26-27, July 2-3

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Average daily solar flux over this past week was 80.7, but back in December 2010 that week of no sunspot numbers had an average daily solar flux of 79.3, very close.

    Sunspot numbers are somewhat subjective, based on a visual count of sunspot groups, the number of sunspots in those groups, and the total area covered by sunspots.

    Solar flux is an actual measure of one type of radiation reaching us from the sun, radio energy with a wavelength of 10.7 cm, or 2.8 GHz. This is supposed to give us a clue about how much our ionosphere is being charged, although x-rays have greater significance. Also remember that because the distance from earth to the sun varies slightly throughout the year, this affects the solar flux number because it is weaker when we are farther away.

    We are only two weeks away from Field Day weekend, so what conditions might we see on June 25-26? The predicted solar flux for June 24-26 is 85, 80 and 80, while the predicted planetary A index is 12, 8 and 10, which is not bad.

    We are including Friday in the data report, even though Field Day only runs from 1800 UTC Saturday, June 25 until 2059 UTC Sunday, June 26 because Friday conditions should affect conditions on Saturday.

    We received this from N8II on June 9, which he titled "Late WPX Report": "Recently the solar flux has dropped substantially to 80 as of today and I heard no signals on 15 meters an hour before sunset here. It was over 100 as I recall during the WPX CW contest May 28-29 and the band really came to life for the contest.

    "Fifteen meters sounded so good Friday night, I decided to try single band. I never have heard so many New Zealand prefixes as I worked Friday evening, ZL1, 4, ZM1, 2, 3, 4 and there were multiple ZL1s and 4s active. To boot I worked 5W1 (western Samoa), WH6, NH7, KH6 x 3, VK2, 3, 4, 6 (though on 15 meters), VK7, JA2, 3, JH4 (Japan, all weak). The biggest surprise was a loud EA3 in Spain with my Yagi pointed west (off back).

    "California stations were noticeably weak most of the evening as were some 7s. I closed out the evening with an A31 at 0230Z with 135 QSOs in the log. At 1747Z I found almost no EU (did get A60, United Arab Emirates) and not many USA stations either, so I bagged it in after 8 minutes. A check of the band at 2025Z revealed not only southern EU, but loud northern EU, UR, and UA6 area stations. About the only areas missing were North Russia, France, Netherlands, and British Isles.

    "I logged several Lithuanians, Swedes, and Finns (Aland Island was very loud). The activity died off by 2120Z, but I was still working a mixture of EU and Caribbean/SA up until 2154Z when I worked a loud Sicilian and the shut down for dinner.

    "Conditions from 2330Z were similar to the day before with a weak JA opening from 0151-0211Z when I decided to quit. Of note was an S7 Finn at 2340Z, which was 0234 local time in Finland! Again, California was weak most of the evening, but there were some nice prefixes to the south like XR0Y (Easter Island) and T49.

    "Sunday morning I missed a good opportunity, because the band opened well much earlier to EU than it ever has for weeks. Signals were loud from all of EU at my 1253Z start and even a RU9 was loud. UP0 (Kazakhstan) was S9+ at 1416 and I found XW1 Laos, very rare from the eastern US.

    "Conditions seemed the best at 1300Z, but I was running stations fairly well off and on thru 1515Z. This included two western Siberia area QRP stations. Signals from the Baltic states and Finland were louder than stations farther south at times. Again, 15 closed early to EU about the time the sun was setting on the EU side or even earlier. By 1800Z, most of EU had died out and the few stations north of the Med area worked were weak and fluttery.

    "However, there was good activity to the south and several stations in the Carib/SA area were running with low numbers sent. I spent over an hour picking off new prefixes mainly to the south.

    "At 2100Z, a few stations from Black Sea Russia and many Ukraine stations were back in along with Turkey, DL, YT, SP, HA, CT, F, 9A50 and I, which was not as widespread as Saturday. From 2133-2156 three weak JA Japanese were worked.

    "After enjoying a nice steak I grilled, it was back on at 2300Z to finally find decent strength JAs, but activity was low. USA 6, 7, 9, 0s were all quite loud. In the last 25 minutes, E/SE Asia beyond JA started coming thru working BY5 in South China and very weak two QSOs with Eastern Malaysia and one Western Malaysia. It was a thrill to hear loud EU and work Asian DX again on 15 after a dreadful month of May with April not much better. The only areas not worked were southern AF (no activity?), Indonesia, and NE Asia west of JA. This was a huge improvement from what I expected.

    "There was a good opening on 15 to Indonesia on June 4 from around 1230Z-1400Z or later. I logged 4 or 5 stations there all with good signals except one about S4 with the rarest being a YC6. This was the first time I have heard them on 15 since mid-April. Sporadic E has been rather poor so far, very few 10 meter openings that I have been able to catch."

    David Moore sent this article about coronal holes: http://www.livescience.com/54958-nasa-spots-huge-hole-in-sun.html[1]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for June 2 through 8 were 27, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 15, with a mean of 7.7. 10.7 cm flux was 85.2, 83.2, 80, 79.1, 78.5, 78.5, and 80.1, with a mean of 80.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 4, 29, 26, 9, and 6, with a mean of 11.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 5, 5, 23, 21, 10, and 6 with a mean of 9.4.

     


    [1] http://www.livescience.com/54958-nasa-spots-huge-hole-in-sun.html
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 17 20:04:53 2016
    06/17/2016

    Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES?) volunteers in New Mexico are responding to the Dog Head fire, which is affecting Torrance and Bernalillo counties, according to ARRL New Mexico Section Emergency Coordinator Bill Mader, K8TE. Mandatory evacuations have been under way in both counties. The fire has claimed 24 homes and 21 "other minor structures," fire officials said. The cause of the fire, which now comprises more than 16,000 acres, remains under investigation. ARES teams in Torrance and Valencia counties have activated, and Sandoval County ARES is on standby. Mader anticipates that the State of New Mexico Emergency Operations Center (EOC), where he is stationed, will shift to 24/7 operation by this evening (June 17).

    "Torrance and Bernalillo counties have a big problem, as they 'welcome' the 2016 fire season," Mader told New Mexico Section Manager Ed James, KA8JMW, adding that the fire is showing no signs of slowing down. "ARES has sprung into action with direct support of the Incident Command in Torrance County." The Capilla Peak 146.96 repeater and the Tapia Mesa 147.06 repeater are the primary emergency communication channels for the Dog Head Fire. Mader has estimated that VHF/UHF repeater coverage would likely meet all ARES communication needs.

    The Dog Head fire is some 6 miles northwest of Tajique, New Mexico, and at this point has not been contained. Evacuation centers have been set up in Estancia, at the Torrance County Fairgrounds (for residents, pets, and livestock), and in Tijeras at the Los Vecinos Community Center for evacuees.

    Fire officials report extreme fire behavior with tree torching expected. The weather is forecast to be Hot and dry into the weekend with very low humidity. The National Weather Service has issued an air quality alert for the area near the fire through mid-day Friday.

    FEMA has posted New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming as "elevated fire weather areas." - Thanks to New Mexico SEC Bill Mader, K8TE, and Assistant SEC Jay Miller, W5WHN, for some information 

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 24 18:32:39 2016
    06/24/2016

    This weekend is ARRL Field Day. Good conditions are expected, but on Thursday prior to this weekend there were no sunspots visible. But the forecast is for a rising solar flux over the weekend with no geomagnetic upsets expected.

    Last week changes in averages of daily sunspot numbers and solar flux were mixed, not illustrating any particular trend.

    Average daily sunspot numbers went from 29.1 to 33.6, and average daily solar flux decreased from 88.3 to 83.8, compared to the previous seven days.

    Geomagnetic indices quieted, with the average daily planetary A index dropping from 11.1 to 7 and average mid-latitude A index going from 10.6 to 6.9.

    The forecast from USAF and NOAA has predicted solar flux at 80 on June 24, 85 on June 25-30, 80 on July 1-5, 85 on July 6-7, 88 on July 8, 90 on July 9-14, 85 on July 15-18, 80 on July 19, 75 on July 20-23, 80 on July 24, and 85 on July 25-28.

    They also predict planetary A index at 8, 12, and 8 on June 24-26, 5 on June 27-30, then 8, 25, 20 and 8 on July 1-4, 5 on July 5-6, 8 on July 7, 10 on July 8-9, then 8, 20, 15 and 5 on July 10-13, 8 on July 14-15, 5 on July 16-19, then 8, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 20-24, then 5 on July 25-28 and 25, 20 and 8 on July 29-31.

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 24-19, 2016.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on June 29-30, July 1, 16-17
    Mostly quiet on June 28, July 6, 10, 13-15,
    Quiet to unsettled on June 25-27, July 2, 5, 18
    Quiet to active on June 24, July 4, 7-9, 12, 19
    Active to disturbed on July 3, 11, 19

    Increased solar wind from coronal holes are expected on July 2-3, 6-7, and 16.

    Dick Ferry, K2KA, of Westford, Massachusetts sent this in last week on June 17, in an e-mail titled "The Magic Band":

    "On June 13 from 1300Z to 1640Z I worked over 50 contacts with EU and 7 new countries. Signals were amazing over the entire time.

    "I have a very modest setup, 200 W to 5-element M2 beam on an 18 foot boom.

    "I counted over 10 more countries that I did not work. If only I had a bigger antenna, higher and more power.

    "In my 6-meter experience, this was an epic opening, which I think was shared by other hams in the Northeast and across the Midwest and South. Since then the band has been pretty inactive. But on the 13th the band was truly 'Magic'."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[1]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[2]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[3]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[4].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[5].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[6].

    Sunspot numbers for June 16 through 22 were 26, 36, 46, 48, 35, 22, and 22, with a mean of 33.6. 10.7 cm flux was 88.2, 86.6, 83.6, 85.2, 84.3, 80.2, and 78.3, with a mean of 83.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 8, 8, 5, 4, 4, and 14, with a mean of 7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 7, 10, 5, 4, 3, and 14 with a mean of 6.9.



    [1] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [2] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [3] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 1 14:55:11 2016
    07/01/2016

    Eight days with no sunspots, at least so far. Average daily sunspot number for our reporting week was down 33.6 points to zero. Earlier in this month we saw four days with a blank sun (sunspot number of zero) from June 3-6.

    There were no sunspots during all of Field Day weekend.

    The last time we saw a blank sun (before June 2016) was 2014. Just one day, on July 17, 2014. Sunspot number was zero, and only for one day. Prior to that, there were just two days in 2011, on January 27, and on August 14.

    Prior to that there were 51 days with a blank sun in 2010, with 12 periods ranging from 1 to 13 days. The longest periods were 11 days beginning on May 9, 2010 and 13 days beginning on April 1, 2010.

    These recent periods of no sunspot activity are a surprise to me, even though we are in a declining half of the solar cycle. I didn't expect the extended periods with no sunspot activity would begin so early following the peak of Cycle 24. But perhaps we will see some extended periods of more sunspot activity, since we've seen in the past that nothing moves in a straight line up or down. There is plenty of variation.

    Or perhaps that reference to memory suggests the classic gambler's fallacy. This refers to the illogical feeling that because a particular ball in the lottery hasn't been drawn for a long time that somehow it is overdue, making it more likely that the numbered ball will be drawn soon. This, of course, concerns only a random draw with all independent variables.

    Mentioned earlier was the observation that the average daily sunspot number was zero over our reporting week (June 23-29) compared to 33.6 on the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux during the same two weeks dropped from 83.8 to 75.6.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 7 to 9, while the mid-latitude A index went from 6.9 to 9.1.

    The latest prediction (June 30) sees solar flux at 75 on July 1-7, 80 on July 8, 80 on July 11, 82 on July 12-13, 80 on July 14-17, 78 on July 18-23, 77 on July 24 and 80 on July 25-31. Following this, the prediction shows solar flux rising two points for the first week in August.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 30, 25, and 10 on July 1-4, 5 on July 5-7, then 10 on July 8-9, then 8, 20, 12 and 5 on July 10-13, 8 on July 14-15, 5 on July 16-18, then 15, 12 and 10 on July 19-21, and 5 on July 22-26, 10 on July 27 and 8 on July 28-29.

    OK1MGW sends us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 1-July 27, 2016.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on July 16-17, 26-27
    Mostly quiet on July 1, 6, 14-15, 18, 24-25
    Quiet to unsettled on July 4-5, 10, 13, 21-23
    Quiet to active on July 7-9, 11-12, 19-20
    Active to disturbed on July 2-3

    Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on July 2-3, 7-9, 11-12, and 19-20.

    In line with the USAF/NOAA planetary A index forecast and the OK1MGW prediction, the Australian Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning at 2346 UTC on June 30.

    Geomagnetic conditions on July 2-3 are expected to increase to Active levels and at times possibly reaching Minor Storm levels in response to the high speed solar wind emanating from an equatorial coronal hole.

    Expect quiet to minor storm levels on July 2 and quiet to active July 3.

    Conditions were good during ARRL Field Day last weekend. There were no sunspots, but there were also no massive solar eruptions or geomagnetic storms.

    Taking a quick look at our 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers ending June 30, the numbers starting with the three months ending on January 31 were 55.4, 53.5, 49, 45.3, 43.1 and 35.4.  The falling progression continues. Our latest period at 35.4 is the lowest in the current cycle since the three months centered on January 2011, when the 3 month average was 35.3.

    The last minimum was around August 2008 to March 2009.

    Here is a recent article about the lack of sunspots: http://bit.ly/29djYnn[1]

    Lou, VK5EEE, sent in a couple of interesting questions, which I passed on to Carl, K9LA.

    Here was Lou's first question.

    "I have observed on several occasions over the past 6 months or so, an unusual propagation, which I cannot explain. I have searched far and wide on the Internet, and short of an atmospheric nuclear explosion causing a strong ionization of E layer, which does not appear to have occurred based on Geiger counter readings, I find no explanation.

    "Sporadic E, we are told, occurs from around 12m (25MHz) upwards, is that correct? Can it occur on 21 MHz? Can it ever occur on 20 meters? It appears to me not on 20 meters. Also, what I describe does not last a short time, as would be expected, but for hours. Short skip of 600 km at night on 20 meters should not normally be possible.

    "At the same time as this short skip late evening propagation from VK5 to VK3 (dipole facing broadside to VK3 and HS at my VK5 QTH) the VK3 was using 5 element beam beaming to HS (same direction as VK5) and HS was beaming to VK3 with a 4 element beam. The VK3-VK5 was exceptionally strong 599+20db on my 8-meter-high dipole. Not to be expected, even more so with a 5 element beam during the middle of the day, most of the energy should pass way overhead. The VK3-HS were both 599 to each other, but HS-VK5 was only S4 from me, S7 from HS.

    "Given it is taking place, and the phenomenal signal strengths, 20 or so dB above what would be normal via F layer propagation, would that be E layer propagation, and why is the E layer there?"

    Carl, K9LA responded:

    "With respect to your observation number 1, I downloaded ionosonde data from Canberra (the closest to your VK5 to VK3 path - we can get a general idea of what happened in the ionosphere) for Jan 1, 2016 to May 31, 2016. That's 152 days of data, and data is taken every hour - that gives 3648 possible data points.

    "For an E mode (110 km height), the elevation angle for the 600 km path is around 18 degrees. The value of foE must be greater than about 5 MHz to support 14 MHz for this short path. For an F mode (300 km height), the elevation angle is around 45 degrees. The value of foF2 must be greater than about 9.3 MHz to support 14 MHz.
     

    "The foE data had 847 data points, so there is a lot of data missing. Of the data available, there's nothing above 4.5 MHz.
     

    "The foEs data had 1759 data points. That's better - almost 50% of the possible data points. In your summer (January and February), there are many foEs values above 5.0 MHz. Towards your winter (May), there are still quite a few foEs values above 5.0 MHz.

     

    "The foF2 data had 2887 data points (about 80% of the possible total). There were not many foF2 values above 9.3 MHz. Most foF2 values were 7 MHz and below.  

    "This cursory investigation suggests that Es could have been the mode. But your question asking if Es occurs on 20-Meters is very relevant. With Es layers being thin (I've seen values from 1 to 5 km), there just isn't enough vertical extent of the layer to have pure refraction (bending) take place, and the ionization doesn't appear to be enough for reflection. Thus in my mind the answer to your question appears to be 'no, Es generally doesn't happen on 20 meters.' If foEs was much higher, then a thin layer might support reflection at 14 MHz.
     

    "There is an 'above-the-MUF' mode with both the E region and F region when the operating frequency is somewhat above the MUF. This mode is believed to involve a scatter mechanism, which implies additional loss. Using the 'above-the-MUF' estimates of additional loss on 14 MHz says your observations could have been either E or F.
     

    "And there's also the possibility of a back-scatter mode, with the scatter region being somewhere northwest of you along the path to HS. That's about as far as I can go with this. I don't have a definite answer - that happens more than we'd like with some HF propagation observations due to the lack of suitable ionospheric data."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for June 23 through 29 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 77.5, 75.7, 77.1, 76.6, 75.4, 73.1, and 73.6, with a mean of 75.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 12, 7, 11, 10, 7, and 4, with a mean of 9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 10, 10, 7, 11, 16, 6, and 4 with a mean of 9.1.


    [1] http://bit.ly/29djYnn
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 8 18:01:52 2016
    07/08/2016

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: The recent zero-sunspot period of June 23 through July 4 ended with the appearance of a single sunspot group[1] (2560) on Tuesday, July 5. Sunspot numbers were 23, 11, and 25, respectively, on July 5-7.

    Compared to the previous week, the average daily sunspot number rose from zero to 4.9. Average daily solar flux declined from 75.6 to 73.1, while the average planetary A index dropped from 9 to 6.7, and the average mid-latitude A index declined from 9.1 to 8.3.

    Predicted solar flux shows a rising trend for the next few days, with flux values from USAF/NOAA at 84 and 85 on July 8-9; 86 on July 10-14; 80 on July 15; 74 on July 16; 72 on July 17-30; 74 on July 31-August 12, and 72 on August 13 and beyond.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 10, 8, and 15 on July 8-11, 12, 8, 5, and 8 on July 12-15; 5 on July 16-18; 15, 12, 10, 8, and 10 on July 19-23; 5 on July 24-27; 8 and 5 on July 28-29; 10 on July 30-31; 5 on August 1-3; 12, 10, 8, and 18 on August 4-7; 12, 8, 10; and 8 on August 8-11, and 5 on August 12-14.

    A glance at the STEREO[2] website can offer clues about upcoming activity about to rotate into view from the other (hidden) side of our Sun. I can see coming over the 90° eastern horizon (which, counter-intuitively, is on the left side of the image) are some magnetically complex regions that could offer more sunspot activity. These appear as white areas in the image, and I am seeing this at 0800 UTC on July 7, and at 0700 UTC on July 8 I see it has advanced well over the horizon and has been numbered as sunspot group 2562. The group 2560 is gone, and 2561 is now about to transit over the western side.

    The STEREO images are updated frequently and are a good source of real-time information. At 0° longitude is the area directly facing Earth, and therefore the most geo-effective. The area directly facing us takes about 4 weeks (about 27.5 days) to transit all the way around the Sun and again reaches its current position.

    At 2352 UTC on July 6, 2016 the Space Weather Services in Australia issued a geomagnetic warning: "The effect of a co-rotating interaction region and a high-speed solar wind stream may raise geomagnetic activity to minor storm levels on 7 and 8 July."

    For July 7 they predicted, "Quiet to active with minor storm periods possible." For July 8, "Unsettled to minor storm."

    Sure enough, the planetary A index on July 7 was 23, up from 5 on July 6. Solar flux rose from 77.1 on July 6 to 83.3 the next day.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, sends us his geomagnetic outlook: Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 8-August 3, 2016.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o Quiet on July 16-17, 22, 26, August 2
    o Mostly quiet on July 10, 14-15, 24-25, 31, August 1
    o Quiet to unsettled on July 9, 12-13, 21, 27-28
    o Quiet to active on July 8, 18-20, 23, 29-30, August 3
    o Active to disturbed on July 11

    Increased solar wind from coronal holes is expected on July 8, (10,) 16, 28, and 30-31. (The figure in parentheses indicates a lower probability of activity enhancement; reliability of predictions is slightly reduced.)

    Here[3] is a Wikipedia entry concerning VE3CC, who developed the first system to measure 2.8 GHz (10.7 centimeter) noise from the Sun and figured out that this could serve as a proxy for sunspot measurement. A big advantage was the ability to measure solar activity when visual observations of the sun were not practical, such as when the sky is overcast.

    I found the reference[4] to Covington on the HMI Science Nuggets page of the Stanford University website, and found that link from here[5].

    The last time this NASA solar cycle prediction was updated was January 12, 2016, but in this July 6 version[6] I find no difference:

    This inquiry is from a reader, WA6QBU, in Santa Rose, California:

    "Just finished reading your Propagation article and found it very interesting. I too have been wondering what is going on. I am a casual DXer with simple equipment. Over this sunspot cycle I've worked 1344 DX stations to date, and in the past 2 weeks, 16 stations in both Europe and the South Pacific. Mostly this was with no sunspots and BTW, sometimes stations were coming in from both directions at the same time. I'm near San Francisco (100 kilometers north) and near the coast. These are really the strangest conditions I've seen. Any comments, especially about the two directions at the same time. This is always after dark here, up until midnight."

    I'm unsure how to answer this, but I may assume that this is all on 40 meters (although his QRZ.com page[7] says he tunes this loop over 80-10 meters and works the world with 100 W).

    I am not sure that hearing stations from opposite directions (especially since his antenna is not directional) is unusual, but of course only WA6QBU is familiar with normal propagation from his QTH.

    I also do not know how far away these stations are, but when I run an analysis on W6ELprop using his QTH as the midpoint between my QTH in the State of Washington and Los Angeles, I can see multiple examples of both LA and Seattle received at the same time in Northern California.

    But it's encouraging that WA6QBU is happy making lots of contacts when there are no sunspots. In fact, if you use any propagation prediction software and enter 0 for the sunspot number, you will discover many scenarios in which there is viable propagation.

    Here is a report on Field Day in Puerto Rico, submitted by Angel Santana-Diaz, WP3GW:

    "Field Day was without sunspots, but we had a great network of stations during the weekend. More than 1000 stations worked, just missed Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, and Hawaii. Fifteen meters was king during the day."

    He also mentioned in a later e-mail that 20 and 40 meters were good during the evening.

    Finally, this news article[8] from Oregon, which seems to get it right concerning sunspots (or lack of them) and future climate effects.

    I see so many articles in the media concerning sunspots that immediately jump to the Maunder Minimum and the Ice Age, even though a cooler climate effect would be heavily offset by massive amounts of carbon loaded into the atmosphere over the past couple of centuries. That's what climatologists have been telling us for the past few decades.

    The ARRL Technical Information Service offers more information[9] concerning radio propagation. The ARRL website includes an explanation of the numbers[10] used in this bulletin as well as an archive of past propagation bulletins[11]. The website of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, has more information and tutorials on propagation[12].

    Visit the ARRL website for monthly propagation charts[13] between four US regions and 12 overseas locations and for instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for June 30 through July 6 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 23, and 11, with a mean of 4.9. The 10.7 centimeter flux was 72.9, 72, 70.9, 72.3, 73.8, 72.4, and 77.1, with a mean of 73.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 9, 9, 7, 4, and 5, with a mean of 6.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 9, 11, 9, 9, 6, and 7 with a mean of 8.3. 


    [1] http://www.solarham.net/regions/2560.htm
    [2] http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Covington
    [4] http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=1510#comment-330947
    [5] http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=477
    [6] http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
    [7] https://www.qrz.com/db/WA6QBU/
    [8] http://koin.com/2016/07/06/there-arent-any-sunspots-on-the-sun-right-now/ [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 15 19:04:42 2016
    07/15/2016

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: As this solar cycle declines, we will occasionally see periods such as this past week, when activity perks up, and it seems that happy days are here again. Enjoy them when you can, while they last. Any recovery is unpredictable and temporary.

    Over the July 7-13 reporting week, the average daily sunspot number was52.6 - up by 47.7 points from 4.9 in the previous week. The previous week's activity was dominated by 5 out of the 7 days with no sunspots. Over the same periods, average daily solar flux rose from 73.1 to 91.6, a healthy advance.

    Geomagnetic indices were also active, with planetary A index advancing by 9 points from 6.7 to 15.7. The mid-latitude A index rose from 8.3 to 14.1 over the same 2 weeks.

    Predicted solar flux is 94 on July 15; 91 on July 16-18; 86 on July 19; 82 on July 20-21; 80, 77, 75, 73, 74, 73, and 72 on July 22-28;  71, 72, 74, 72, and 77 on July 29-August 2; 83, 87, 92, 94, and 92 on August 3-7; 90 on August 8-13; 85 on August 14; 78 on August 15-16; 76 on August 17, and 77 on August 18-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14, 8, and 5 on July 15-17; 8 on July 18-19; 5 on July 20-21; 7, 11, 10, and 6 on July 22-25; 4, 6, 7, 9, 8, and 7 on July 26-31; 4 and 5 on August 1-2; 23 on August 3-4; 14, 10, 20, 12, 8, 15, and 10 on August 5-11; 5 on August 12-13; 4 and 14 on August 14-15, and 12 on August 16-17.

    Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, provided this geomagnetic activity forecast for July 15-August 10:


    o Quiet on July 16-17, August 1-2
    o Mostly quiet on July 15, 24-26, 31, August 10
    o Quiet to unsettled on July 18, 21-23, 30, August 5-7, 9
    o Quiet to active on July 19-20, 27-29, August 3-4, 8
    o Active to disturbed on August (3-4)
    o Increased solar wind from coronal holes is expected on July 19-21, 27-29, August 2-4, 7-8.

    Parentheses indicate lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Bill Loftus, WA2VQF, of Denville, New Jersey, was among several who sent this article[1], commenting, "Good thing I only need 30 more on 80 meters for 5BDXCC."

    Here[2] is a resource from Australia's Space Weather Services, which displays in detail solar activity over all of the historic cycles, starting in 1754. You might miss this image[3], which shows all 24 cycles.

    On April 13, Ray Bass, W7YKN, of Sparks, Nevada, (he uses the phonetics "You Know Nothing!") wrote:

    "I have a question that so far no one knows the answer to, including some astronomers and professors.





    The numbers for the sunspot groups, like 2230, 2231, 2232 and so forth are in numerical order, but where did they start?





    Is there a 0001? Did they start, at the beginning of a new 11-year cycle, or when they first started counting sun spots, etc. or did they start with a higher number than 0001?





    So, if I started at number 2230 and went backwards to the beginning where would I be (other than lost)?





    We had discussions about this a few times on the air in rag chew sessions, and all were interested but no one knew the answer."





    It turns out the renumbering begins after sunspot group 9999, and it starts over at 0. Note that he was not asking about the sunspot number, but the numbering of sunspots. Sunspot number is an indicator of solar activity, but the numbering of sunspots is just a method of identifying individual sunspot groups, and it goes from 0 to 9999. After 10,000 sunspots, the numbers begin all over again. The last time it did this was June 16, 2002.

    Go to Spaceweather.com[4], and put June 15, 2002, in the archive (Spaceweather Time Machine), and you will see sunspots numbered up to 9998. The next day they start over at 0, and there is also an explanation. Compare the numbers on the sun on these two consecutive days, 14 years ago.

    I solved this by using the Spaceweather archive (Time Machine) and kept dialing back the years, and noting the numbers on the solar disc, until I got back to zero. And right there, where it displayed the transition on June 16, 2002, was this explanation:

    "SUNSPOT ZERO: This weekend NOAA sunspot region numbers reached 9999 and (like a car's odometer) rolled over to 0000. Sunspot zero spans an area equal to approximately 0.5 planet Earths. It is not particularly large or active - but it will be easy to remember."





    The ARRL Technical Information Service offers more information[5] concerning radio propagation. The ARRL website includes an explanation of the numbers[6] used in this bulletin as well as an archive of past propagation bulletins[7]. The website of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, has more information and tutorials on propagation[8].

    Visit the ARRL website for monthly propagation charts[9] between four US regions and 12 overseas locations and for instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for July 7 through 13 were 25, 55, 63, 46, 62, 63, and 54, with a mean of 52.6. The 10.7 centimeter flux was 83.3, 87.1, 92.2, 94.4, 94.7, 92.4, and 96.8, with a mean of 91.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 23, 14, 10, 11, 21, and 8, with a mean of 15.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 19, 18, 15, 11, 11, 18, and 7 with a mean of 14.1. 


    [1] http://bit.ly/29CSDYs
    [2] http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Educational/2/3/1
    [3] http://bit.ly/29zX76E
    [4] http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&amp;day=15&amp;month=06&amp;year=2002
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 22 18:06:33 2016
    07/22/2016

    All solar indices rose over the past week, and geomagnetic indicators were lower.

    Average daily solar flux rose from the previous seven days at 52.6 to 58.1, and average daily sunspot numbers rose from 91.6 to 103.6.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 15.7 to 10.6 and average daily mid-latitude A index changed from 14.1 to 11.1.

    The latest (Thursday night) predictions for solar flux show 100 on July 22-23, 95 and 90 on July 24-25, 85 on July 26-27, 80 and 75 on July 28-29, 70 on July 30 to August 4, 80 and 95 on August 5-6, 105 on August 7-16, 100 on August 17-18, then 95, 90, 80 and 75 on August 19-22, and 70 on August 23-31. For the next few days following the end of August the prediction shows a sharp rise in solar flux from 70 to 105.

    Predicted planetary A index levels are at 10, 8, 12, 8 and 5 on July 22-26, 8 on July 27-31, 5 on August 1-2, 20 on August 3-4, 15 on August 5, 10 on August 6-7, then 20, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on August 8-12, 5 on August 13-14, then 8, 12 and 15 on August 15-17, 10 on August 18-19, 8 on August 20, 5 on August 21-23, then 8 and 9 on August 24-25, 8 on August 26-27, 5 on August 28-29, and 20 on August 30-31.

    At 2341 UTC on July 19 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    A shock wave signature was detected in the solar wind on 19 July at 2300 UTC. A geomagnetic sudden impulse is expected, followed by increased geomagnetic activity up to minor storm levels.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 20-22 JULY 2016

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
    20 Jul:  Active to Minor Storm
    21 Jul:  Active
    22 Jul:  Unsettled to Active

    The Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 22 to August 16, 2016 from OK1HH follows.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on August 1, 13-14
    Mostly quiet on July 25, 28-29, August 11-12
    Quiet to unsettled on July 26, August 7, 16
    Quiet to active on July 22, 27, 30-31, August 2, 5-6, 8-9, 10, 15
    Active to disturbed on July 23 or 24, August 3-4

    Increased solar wind from coronal holes is expected on July 27-28, July 30 through August 2, and August 7-8.

    Bob Sherman, K2SJP, of Lutz, Florida noted a 10 meter opening on July 11 when he worked many West Coast stations.  The next day on 10 meters he worked a station in Kuwait.

    Dave Grubbs, N4EF, of Apopka, Florida wrote, "You wrote in Propagation Forecast Bulletin #29 that any perking up of propagation would be unpredictable and temporary -- how right you were.

    "There was a fleeting 30-minute nighttime opening from my central Florida home on 30 meters on July 17. The band was dead at 0745 UTC (3:45 AM EDT) and there were no replies to my CQs on 10112 kHz.  About 15 minutes later, I copied a GI4 station, JA1KIH, and CO8LY at the same time within 500 Hz of each other.

    "The GI4 was engaged in a QSO and the JA1 and CO8 were calling CQ simultaneously nearly on top of each other. I worked Taka, JA1KIH, with a 559 report each way which was thrilling since I was running 100 watts to a dipole 15 feet high in my attic. The Cuban station was loud enough to cause interference to my conversation, yet Eduardo is only 700 miles (1113 km) from me and had a steady signal. Was this a very short sky wave hop or a long groundwave signal from Cuba?

    "My Florida location and Taka's station appear to be in the gray line at the same time, but this brief opening occurred at 0800 UTC, which was 2 hours 39 minutes before my sunrise and hence not attributable to terminator/gray line propagation.  The band was void of CW again until well past sunrise."

    Check out Dave's interesting post and images on his call sign listing on QRZ.com: https://www.qrz.com/db/n4ef[1]

    Actually what I was trying to say in last week's bulletin was any increase in solar activity would be temporary.

    Ted Leaf, K6HI, in Kona, Hawaii asked "What is the correlation between sunspot numbers and solar flux?"

    There is a high correlation between sunspot numbers and solar flux, assuming you are looking at smoothed values for each. Smoothed sunspot numbers average a year of data, so the actual value lags behind the latest data by six months.

    Here is an article by K9LA on the topic:

    http://k9la.us/Correlation_Between_Solar_Flux_and_Sunspot_Number.pdf[2]

    Determining the sunspot number is somewhat subjective, and it is also tough to do when the sky is overcast. But the 10.7 cm solar flux is completely objective. It involves pointing a parabolic dish at the sun at local noon, then measuring the radiation at 2.8 GHz.

    This paper notes a correlation which also incorporates solar irradiance:

    https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0804/0804.1941.pdf[3]

    Interesting article about our sun in a recent issue of The Atlantic:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/07/staring-at-the-sun/491939/[4 ]

    Jeff, N8II, in West Virginia reported on July 16:

    "Some of your readers should have experienced 2-meter Es on Friday evening (July 15) around 0000-0100Z. DXMAPS.com showed estimated MUFs as high as 180 MHz over grids in eastern OH, NW PA, and western NY. I worked as close as EN91 on 6 meter and many stations centered around Chicago extending eastward including IN and OH both in EM79. NP4A was also worked and the evening before I logged 3 or 4 Puerto Rico hams on 6 meter phone and CW, all in FK68.

    "Despite the improved SFI, 15 meters remains dead, but I have not had time to listen much since the IARU contest last Saturday July 9 when EU signals were mostly weak and from south EU, but I did work around 50 of them along with some Es into New England and quite a few Caribbean and SA stations."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for July 14 through 20 were 54, 73, 47, 51, 68, 58, and 56, with a mean of 58.1. 10.7 cm flux was 95.1, 102.1, 106.6, 105.2, 107.1, 100.8, and 108, with a mean of 103.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 11, 8, 6, 4, 10, and 23, with a mean of 10.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 16, 10, 8, 10, 4, 11, and 19 with a mean of 11.1.



    [1] https://www.qrz.com/db/n4ef
    [2] http://k9la.us/Correlation_Between_Solar_Flux_and_Sunspot_Number.pdf
    [3] https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0804/0804.1941.pdf
    [4] http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/07/staring-at-the-sun/491939/
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 29 20:25:12 2016
    07/29/2016

    Reporting this week from the Hill Country of West Texas in Kerrville, northwest of San Antonio. Happy to report that the food is delicious, the locals very friendly and hospitable, and gas costs only two bucks a gallon. Speed limit on the highways is 75 MPH, and it seems almost like the 1970s again.

    We have fallen back to a period of zero sunspots, so far only lasting three days. This was after a brief uptick in solar activity from July 15-21. But looking at the STEREO site http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[1] we can see that on the opposite side of the Sun there are still sunspots, which should drift back into view as our Sun rotates relative to Earth in a couple of weeks.

    After those three blank days, the sunspot number rose to 13 on July 28.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 58.1 to 19.3 (comparing the July 21-27 period to the previous seven days), and average daily solar flux from 103.6 to 82.5. Average daily planetary A index went from 10.6 to 8.7, while the mid-latitude A index declined from 11.1 to 8.9.

    Predicted solar flux from USAF and NOAA space weather observers is 70 on July 29 to August 3, 75 on August 4, 80 and 95 on August 5-6, 105 on August 7-16, then 100, 90, 85 and 80 on August 17-20, then 75 on August 21-22, and 70 on August 23-31. Solar flux the goes to 105 on September 3-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on July 29-30, 5 on July 31 to August 2, 20 on August 3-4, 15 on August 5, 10 on August 6-7, then 20, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on August 8-12, 5 on August 13-14, then 8, 12 and 5 on August 15-17, 8 on August 18-19, then 5, 8, 15, 12, 8, 20, 12 and 8 on August 20-27 and 5 on August 28-29, 20 on August 30-31, 15 on September 1 and 10 on September 2-3, then 20, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on September 4-8.

    At 0537 UTC on July 28, 2016 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "Elevated geomagnetic activity possible due to the expected arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole on 28 July.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 28-29 JULY 2016

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
    28 Jul:  Unsettled to Active, possible Minor Storm periods
    29 Jul:  Quiet to Unsettled, possible Active periods"

    Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent us this forecast:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 29-August 24, 2016

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on August 23-24
    Mostly quiet on August 1-2, 12-14, 17-18, 22
    Quiet to unsettled on July 31, August 5-7, 10-11, 19
    Quiet to active on July 29-30, August 3-4, 8-9, 15-16, 20-21
    Active to disturbed on August (3-4)

    Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected: July 29-30, August 2-4, 7-9, 20-21.

    Parenthesis (August 3-4) means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Petr Kolman, OK1MGW
    (OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)"

    Spaceweather.com reported: "Earth is entering the outskirts of a broad stream of debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower. Forecasters don't expect the shower to peak until Aug.11-13, but already NASA cameras are detecting Perseid fireballs streaking across the night sky as the shower slowly intensifies." Meteor trails can enhance propagation.

    David Moore reported, "Sun blasts out 2016's strongest solar flare: https://shar.es/1ZqGRJ[2]

    Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI, sent this from Costa Rica:

    "Here is an article that some of your readers might find interesting about how scientists are discovering that the details of how the solar wind powers auroras are a bit different than had been thought. New satellite data might lead to improved auroral forecasts:

    http://phys.org/news/2016-07-magnetosphere-large-intake-solar-energy.html[3]

    "Been awhile since I've sent in a report on propagation from here in the single-digit latitudes, so here goes.

    "On six meters, there's only been two really good openings into the States of any consequence, one on the 14th of June, another on the 12th of July, and so far, no openings at all into the South Pacific or Europe, which is strange, because they're normally common here. So far, I have yet to hear Rémi in New Caledonia, and I usually hear him several times per week.

    "The opening on the 12th into the States was a really spectacular one; I got 76 QSOs in the log, easily the best opening since I've been down here in Costa Rica, mostly working the East Coast, but occasionally into the Midwest, as far west as Denver. Worked my first VEs on 6 from here, and got two of them, a half hour apart.

    "Everybody's really been singing the blues around here about the lack of openings otherwise, though. Even the nightly TEP openings into South America that are a usual feature of six meters this time of year here, have simply not been happening at all. I've only heard those familiar watery signals twice so far this year, and even then the signals weren't particularly strong, nor were they to any stations I haven't already worked many times.

    "The frequent, almost daily Es openings into Venezuela and French Guiana we enjoyed last year are only a memory so far this year. If low-latitude sporadic E is supposed to be correlated with low solar activity, you couldn't have proved it by me.

    "The HF bands are also suffering from the lack of solar activity. The higher bands, 20 through 10 meters, have seen noticeably weaker signals, with propagation entirely absent on 10 meters for days at a time, and only a very few weak signals on 15.

    "That's ominous, because even during the last solar minimum, there would be a decent, if brief opening on 15 meters most days, and afternoon TEP on 10 meters into South America was a daily occurrence. But it is not happening at all so far this year. Most of my HF activity has been on 20 meters just because there hasn't been any other choice. Even 17 meters hasn't been an option.

    "The low bands, too, are affected down here by all this. My local gringo friends and I usually have an early morning coffee klatch on 75 meters between 5 and 6 AM, and until recently, the signals, as soon as we would get on, were strong and stable as one would normally expect on that band.

    "But lately, the band has been shortening up for local paths quite a bit later than it ever has in the past - often not until an hour or so after sunrise. At times, the propagation on 75 has been so long that Stateside QRM has been stronger than our local Central American stations! Jay, HP3AK, reports that this has been great for his morning gray-line 75m DXing, especially into VK/ZL, but it has shortened up our morning coffee klatch by a half hour or more, because we just can't make ourselves heard locally early.

    This strange propagation seems to be an issue on 40m as well, which often isn't opening up for regional short skip until as late as 9 or even 10 in the morning. It's really bizarre - never seen anything quite like it, even during the last solar minimum. In the past, 40m here has always been open as soon as the Sun was up.

    "I've noticed that these really late openings on the low bands seem to be correlated with really low 304 angstrom UV index numbers. I'm noticing that the current SOHO 304a number is very close to the lowest I've ever seen it (a few weeks ago, it was the lowest), even during the last solar minimum. I'm wondering if that's real or if it's degradation of the sensor on the satellite. Judging from how the bands have been behaving, it must be real."
     

    I've been intending to run this for weeks, but it keeps falling off the agenda. Notice how there are progressively fewer sunspots, as the record transitions from April 2014 to April 2016 and the months beyond:

    http://www.solarham.net/regions/april2014.htm[4]

    http://www.solarham.net/regions/april2016.htm[5]

    http://www.solarham.net/regions/may2016.htm[6]

    http://www.solarham.net/regions/june2016.htm[7]

    http://www.solarham.net/regions/july2016.htm[8]

    And finally, this item is interesting because, among other reasons, I cannot imagine being shut inside a capsule and hurtled through some vast void! http://spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=49197[9]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[14].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15].

    Sunspot numbers for July 21 through 27 were 49, 36, 34, 16, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 19.3. 10.7 cm flux was 100.1, 90.4, 86.2, 82.2, 73.6, 73.5, and 71.6, with a mean of 82.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 8, 8, 14, 18, 5, and 3, with a mean of 8.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 8, 10, 12, 15, 7, and 4 with a mean of 8.9.

     


    [1] http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] https://shar.es/1ZqGRJ
    [3] http://phys.org/news/2016-07-magnetosphere-large-intake-solar-energy.html [4] http://www.solarham.net/regions/april2014.htm
    [5] http://www.solarham.net/regions/april2016.htm
    [6] http://www.solarham.net/regions/may2016.htm
    [7] http://www.solarham.net/regions/june2016.htm
    [8] http://www.solarham.net/regions/july2016.htm
    [9] http://spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=49197
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Thu Dec 1 15:25:50 2016
    11/25/2016

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Over the November 17-23 reporting week, average daily sunspot numbers decreased from 28.7 to 14.1. Average daily solar flux decreased from 78.5 to 77.1, although last week's bulletin erroneously reported average solar flux for the November 10-16 period as 45.8. Thanks to several sharp-eyed readers who caught this, including IK2AGX, G8XTJ, AA2F, K6MSM, and N8II.

    Average daily planetary A index shifted from 12.7 to 6.4, and average mid-latitude A index changed from 10.1 to 4.7.

    Predicted solar flux from NOAA is 79 on November 25-26; 80 on November 27-29; 79 on November 30-December 1; 84 on December 2-4; 80 on December 5-7; 78 on December 8; 76 on December 9-14; 75 on December 15-18; 78 on December 19; 80 on December 20-22; 82 on December 23-28, and 84 on December 29-31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, and 10 on November 25-27; 8 on November 28-29; 10 and 8 on November 30-December 1; 5 on December 2-6; 15, 12, 18, 20, and 10 on December 7-11; 5 on December 12-17; 8, 15, and 30 on December 18-20; 25, 15, and 12 on December 21-23; 8 on December 24-26, and 5 on December 27-31.

    OK1HH sent the following geomagnetic forecast on behalf of the Czech Propagation Interest Group for the period November 25 to December 21, 2016.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on December 3-6, 14-16.

    Mostly quiet on November 28, December 1-2, 13, 17-18

    Quiet to unsettled on November 27, 30

    Quiet to active on November 25-26, 29, December 7, 9. 10-12, 19, 21

    Active to disturbed on December 8, 20

    Increased solar wind from coronal holes is expected on November 25-27, December 9-15, 18-21

    Reliability of predictions is reduced at present."

    Thanks to Paul Merrill, W7IV, for this fascinating article[1] from NPR about space weather.

    Thanks to David Moore for this article[2].

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI sent this:

    "Today, November 22, solar flux was in the 70s, but operating from my kayak with 10 W and 9-foot vertical dipole (see article in November 2016 QST) - 17 meters was hopping today, or should I say skipping?

    "Within an hour's time I had four QSOs at length with OK, CA, and two VEs. And was getting signal reports ranging from S-5 to S-9. Also heard Brazil coming in (but couldn't land him) and probably Central America. There was some QSB. Being on the water in the kayak (fresh water) seems to greatly augment my signal."

    Jon Jones, N0JK reports:

    "Six meters exploded with sporadic E in North America the evening of November 23 and again most of Thanksgiving Day.

    "Wednesday evening there was strong sporadic E on 6 across the southeast states. I worked K5GKC (EM13) from my mobile set up near Kansas City (EM28) with a 10 W MFJ-9406 and 1/4 wave vertical ~ 0048 UTC on November 24. He was quite loud. I saw some real DX spotted, including ZF1EJ and NP4BM working into New England and XE2X, XE2OK, and XE2JS to the Midwest. Did not note any Es-TEP to South America. Wonder if any readers know of any from mainland North America.

    "Thanksgiving Day November 24,  again sporadic E. I logged KV4VO (EM90) from home in Lawrence, KS (EM28) at 1625 UTC on November 24 on 50.130 MHz He was running 50 W to a vertical antenna and peaked to 59. Saw many spots across the southeastern states. The C6AFB/b (FL16) was spotted by many. It is now on 50.063 MHz running only a few watts. The magnetic field was active due to a coronal hole solar windstream with the Kp peaking to 5 - storm levels."

    John Fitzgerald, G8XTJ noted today that the planetary K index was 5, and this didn't look too promising for the CQ World Wide CW Contest this weekend, "though 6Y9X a good 579 on 10 MHz as I type 1044 UTC."

    Jeff, N8II in West Virginia wrote:

    "The skip zones were very long for ARRL Sweepstakes SSB, even worse than CW, but I still managed to make a lot of QSOs. Stations closer than NY or NC were difficult to work on any band from early evening into the night on Sunday and same happened a bit later Saturday. The K index stayed around 1, I think, so western Canada and AK were fairly easy to work at least on 20 and western Canada strong at times on 15; best 15 conditions were in 1700Z hour."

    As noted above by G8TXJ, the CQ World Wide[3] CW Contest is this weekend. Also note this interesting analysis[4] of SSB signal quality (although the SSB contest was at the end of October).

    For more information[5] concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at. Here is an explanation[6] of the numbers used in this bulletin. An archive[7] of past propagation bulletins is on the ARRL website. More good information and tutorials[8] on propagation are on the website of Carl, K9LA.

    The ARRL website also offers monthly propagation charts[9] between four US regions and 12 overseas locations.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending e-mail distribution of ARRL bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for November 17 through 23 were 27, 28, 22, 11, 0, 0, and 11, with a mean of 28.7. 10.7 cm flux was 78.6, 77.6, 76.8, 76.4, 75, 77.3, and 77.7, with a mean of 78.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 3, 4, 6, 12, and 13, with a mean of 12.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 2, 2, 4, 9, and 11, with a mean of 10.1.

        


    [1] http://n.pr/2fCGp8F
    [2] https://shar.es/18maoo
    [3] http://www.cqww.com/index.htm
    [4] http://www.cqww.com/ssbsignalquality.htm
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 9 20:47:56 2016
    12/09/2016

    Average daily sunspot number for the past week (December 1-7) was 40.9, up 10 points from the previous seven days at the end of November.

    Average solar flux changed hardly at all, moving from 82.6 to 82.2.

    Average daily planetary A index dropped from 13.6 to 4.9, and average mid-latitude A index from 10.3 to 3.4

    The latest prediction from NOAA and the US Air Force shows solar flux at 75 on December 9-10, 70 on December 11-15, 78 on December 16-18, 82 on December 19-20, 86 on December 21-27, 84 on December 28-31, 82 on January 1, 80 on January 2-3, 78 on January 4-8, 80 on January 9, 82 on January 10-15 and 84 on January 16-17.

    Their latest projection for Planetary A Index predicts 20, 18, 12 and 8 on December 9-12, 5 on December 13-17, then 8, 12, 16 and 22 on December 18-21, then 30, 12, 10 and 8 on December 22-25, 5 on December 26-31, then 8, 5, 12 and 15 on January 1-4, 20, 18 and 12 on January 5-7, 5 on January 8-13 and 8, 12, 16, 22 and 30 on January 14-18.

    Here is a summary of our recent 3-month moving average of observed daily sunspot numbers, beginning in January 2016 through the end of November 2016. The averages were 55.4, 53.5, 49, 45.3, 43.1, 35.4, 33, 33.5, 40, 39 and 29.6.

    Monthly average daily sunspot numbers for November were 22.4. This is down from 50.4, 37.4, and 29.1 for August through October.

    No matter if we observe smoothed 3-month moving average sunspot numbers or monthly averages the downward trend in activity is obvious and undeniable.

     

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, sent us the weekly geomagnetic forecast from the Czech Propagation Interest Group.

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 9, 2016 to January 7, 2017

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on December 14-17, 29-31, January 1

    Mostly quiet on December 13, 18, 27-28, January 2

    Quiet to unsettled on December 11-12, 26

    Quiet to active on December 9-10, 19, 23-25, January 3

    Active to disturbed on December 8, 20-22, January 4

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on December 9-10 (11, 14-15, 18-20), January 2-3

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH"

     

    And now, this news from Jeff, N8II, of West Virginia:

    "It has been an interesting couple of weeks on the bands. The CQWW CW contest was tough on the low bands and the high bands, leaving only 20 meters in the daytime and early evening as a good option. At first, a disturbance caused all bands to be poor to Europe. It was not until Sunday morning on 20 meters that things really got rolling into northern Europe and Russia. My first QSOs with Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, and Latvia took place then, along with a good number of Russians. I could hear several Zone 33 west Africans on 160 meters on Saturday night, but they were still working one European station after another. Ten meters was barely open working only Morocco (barely), Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Venezuela, and Costa Rica and all 3 continental USA zones.

    "A week later, the ARRL 160-meter contest featured good to excellent propagation. With low power and limited time, I worked all of the lower 48 states except WY and MT, and 12 DXCC entities including Ecuador, Costa Rica, EU Russia, Ukraine, Wales, Portugal, Sweden, and Germany.

    "Another disturbance started Wednesday with 15 meters being almost completely closed after good signals the 2 to 3 days before from the UK, Germany, Greece, and countries southwest of there, along with an S9 signal from Per, LA8LLA at 1551Z on December 6.

    "The low bands are finally opening well with some outstanding signals! On December 7, starting at 0320Z, I worked an S9+ 4O/KC0W in Montenegro, followed by stations in Lithuania, Latvia, and Slovenia.

    "But the big excitement was tonight (December 8). For most of the last week, 3B9HA on Rodrigues Island at a heading of 71 degrees and a distance of 9770 miles has been spotted on 160, but nothing heard here. Tonight they were Q5 copy peaking around S9 and working quite a few USA stations on 160 meters, but I could not break the pile up. Right after giving up on 160, I found them on 80 meter CW peaking S9 + 20 dB! I made an easy QSO at 0110Z. In all of years on the bands, I have never heard an Indian Ocean station so loud on 80 meters. SFI is 79 and K has been running at 4 since about noon."

     

    This weekend, don't miss the ARRL Ten Meter Contest. Predicted solar flux is 70-75, and planetary A index is projected to be 18 and 12 for both days. Last year, the contest was on December 12-13, and the solar flux was 116.7 and 122.5, while planetary A index was 12 and 8. On December 13-14, 2014 solar flux was 159.8 and 166.34, while planetary A index was 9 and 11. During the 2013 contest (December 14-15) solar flux was 164.2 and 156.2, while planetary A index was 16 and 7. See contest details at http://www.arrl.org/10-meter[1] .

    The ARRL encourages participants to try a new Web Log Upload app for this contest. See details at http://bit.ly/2gjBDhL[2] .

    Solar activity is lower this year, but 10 meters still offers many opportunities, and is especially attractive to the "Little Pistols" (as opposed to Big Guns) contest operators. For casual operators, 10 meters is especially attractive because of the short wavelengths (and antenna lengths) involved.

    For a half wave antenna cut to 28.3 MHz, that's only 16 feet, 6 and 7/16 inches. A quarter wavelength is only 8 feet, 3 inches. Thus, a modest portable or temporary 10-meter installation can be used.

    Here are some simple 10-meter antenna suggestions, some from an ARRL Facebook post of several years ago.

    http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/5002016.pdf[3]

    http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/9106023.pdf[4]

    http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/9904067.pdf[5]

    http://bit.ly/2grIjZv[6]

    http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/7806016.pdf[7]

    http://www.amwindow.org/tech/htm/tenmant/tenmant.htm#3[8]

    http://www.davegardner.org/Ham/TenMeter.html[9]

    http://www.eham.net/articles/31424[10]

    http://bit.ly/2hsEy3Z[11]

     

    Finally, Take a look at GREGOR, all about a European space weather observatory: goo.gl/9ekORN[12]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[17].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18].

     

    Sunspot numbers for December 1 through 7 were 49, 59, 62, 37, 37, 24, and 18, with a mean of 40.9. 10.7 cm flux was 84.5, 84.4, 84.7, 82.4, 82.7, 79.8, and 77.2, with a mean of 82.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 3, 2, 4, 7, and 11, with a mean of 4.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 6, and 9, with a mean of 3.4.

     

     


    [1] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [2] http://bit.ly/2gjBDhL
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/5002016.pdf
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/9106023.pdf
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/9904067.pdf
    [6] http://bit.ly/2grIjZv
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/7806016.pdf
    [8] http://www.amwindow.org/tech/htm/tenmant/tenmant.htm#3
    [9] http://www.davegardner.org/Ham/TenMeter.html
    [10] http://www.eham.net/articles/31424
    [11] http://bit.ly/2hsEy3Z
    [12] http://goo.gl/9ekORN
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] http://k9la.us/
    [17] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 16 20:07:15 2016
    12/16/2016

    Average daily solar indices over the past week were lower than the previous seven days, with average daily sunspot number declining from 40.9 to 13, and average daily solar flux dropping 10 points from 82.2 to 72.2.

     

    Geomagnetic indicators were higher, with average daily planetary A index rising from 4.9 to 13.3, and mid-latitude A index from 3.4 to 9.

    Predicted solar flux is 72 on December 16-20, 75 on December 21-22, 88 on December 23-27, 86 on December 28-29, 88 on December 30 through January 1, 86 on January 2-3, 84 and 82 on January 4-5, 80 on January 6-7, 73 on January 8-9, 75 on January 10-14, 82 on January 15-16, 86 on January 17-18, 88 on January 19-23, 86 on January 24-25 and 88 on January 26-28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16, 8 on December 17-18, 15 on December 19-20, then 25, 28, 12, 10 and 8 on December 21-25, 5 on December 26 through January 1, then 8, 10, 20 and 22 on January 2-5, 16 on January 6-7, 8 on January 8, 5 on January 9-12, 8 on January 13-14, then 12, 16, 22 and 30 on January 15-18 then 12, 10 and 8 on January 19-21, and 5 on January 22-28.


    From Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, the "geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 16 to January 11, 2017.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on December 16, 30-31, January 10-11
    Mostly quiet on December 17, 26-29, January 8-9
    Quiet to unsettled on December 18-19, 23-25, January 1-3
    Quiet to active on December 20, January 6-7
    Active to disturbed on December 21-22, January 4-5

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on December 17-23, January 2-7."


    Evan Rolek, K9SQG, of Beavercreek, Ohio wrote: "For me, poor propagation is something that is LOVED! Why? It is easier to make A-B antenna comparisons and to identify which antenna works the best, then I'll be ready when propagation improves. (Not for me since it will be 5-10 years when it gets better, and I've already submitted my application to the Silent Key Club.)"

     

    In conversation with Lee Gordy, W4KUT, I asked him about 10 and 15 meters at the peak of Cycle 19. "Just after the peak of SS Cycle 19, my only antenna was a 40-meter dipole (up about 30 or 40 feet), fed with 75-ohm coax. My transmit VFO was pretty much stuck on the low end of 40 CW.

    "I had a Viking Ranger II, which had a Pi Network output. It could load up bed springs. So, I could trick the 40-meter antenna into radiating just about any frequency, but with way less than the advertised output power.

    "One summer afternoon, there was a knock on the door. It was my ham buddy, K4AIP (Roger, aka Rozy). He was out of breath, having just bicycled over from across town. (Not everybody in those days had telephones). He said, 'Hey man, I just worked Nigeria on 15! Fire up your rig. I bet he's still there.'

    "We went into the shack and tuned up my 40-meter antenna on 15 meter AM phone (this was before the proliferation of SSB). Yep, there was the Nigerian at 20 over S9.

    "Because of the mismatch, I probably had less than 5 watts ERP. I gave the guy a call and he came back to me! It was Atlanta to Nigeria and back, on less than 5 watts. I've still got that QSL card from 5N2FEL. Conditions will probably never be that good again."

     

    Regarding propagation during last weekend's ARRL 10 Meter Contest, Jon Jones, N0JK, of Lawrence, Kansas wrote:

    "Sporadic E popped up on both 6 and 10 meters on Saturday, December 10. The Es allowed some contestants in the ARRL 10-meter contest to fill their logs substantially.

    "Ten was wide open to W4, W5 and west to AZ, CO and NM from Kansas 1645z to 1800z. My first contact was VP5CW at 1645z via double hop Es. I worked several stations in Colorado, which is a fairly short distance.

    "I went out fixed mobile later and found strong Es on 10 meters from 1930-2200z to W1, W2 and W3. The MUF at this time seem lower, probably just above 30 MHz. I worked VHFers W3EP and K1RO. The only F-layer DX I worked was PX2B at 2052z."

     

    Sam, K5SW, in EM25 in Oklahoma wrote me about 6 meter Es on December 10: "The minor E season of December/January got underway with a 6-meter opening today. From 1700z-1800z I worked FM05, FM17, and FM16 stations. I heard beacons from that area as well. Maybe we will have some E-skip during the January VHF contest, too."

     

    I also received this report from Bil Paul, KD6JUI: "Of course, the ARRL 10 Meter Contest was happening this weekend. I wasn't at all sure 10 meters would be open, but I decided to check it out.

    "DX-wise, I found South America coming in with signals from Peru, Chile, and Argentina. I heard an American East Coast station coming in with a peculiar flutter for a short time."


    Gary, K7GS, of Spokane, Washington wrote regarding the Ten Meter Contest: "Conditions in the inland Pacific Northwest were poor at best. Good TEP openings to South America on Saturday, along with some East Coast and South East propagation. On Sunday, there was no East Coast or Midwest propagation, but we did experience some TEP to central South America, plus one or two W6s via short skip. Let's hope it will not be much worse in the coming few years."


    A couple of interesting links from Brian Calvert, KG7MU, regarding out of phase solar magnetic fields:

    http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/795/1/46/pdf[1]

    http://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689[2]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14 were 14, 12, 0, 13, 13, 14, and 25, with a mean of 13. 10.7 cm flux was 74.8, 72.9, 72.2, 71.4, 70.8, 71.2, and 72.4, with a mean of 72.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 25, 16, 15, 6, 4, and 4, with a mean of 13.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 14, 18, 11, 11, 5, 2, and 2, with a mean of 9.



     


    [1] http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/795/1/46/pdf
    [2] http://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 23 20:38:01 2016
    12/23/2016

    Over the past reporting week (December 15-21) solar activity was little changed from the previous seven days, although on two days (December 16-17) there were no sunspots. Average daily sunspot numbers declined two points from 13 to 11, and average daily solar flux bumped up one point to 73.2.

     

    Average planetary A index changed from 13.3 to 7.9, and average mid-latitude A index from 9 to 5.7.

     

    The outlook for the next month shows daily solar flux in a big downward adjustment for the next week, compared to the forecast in yesterday's ARRL Letter. The average predicted solar flux Wednesday on December 23-28 was 84.2, but in Thursday's forecast it dropped suddenly to 62.

     

    Predicted solar flux is 73 on December 23-24, 72 on December 25-29, 77 on December 30-31, 79 on January 1-3, 77 on January 4-5, 75 on January 6-10, 77 on January 11-12, 75 on January 13-14, 73 on January 15-17, 75 on January 18-23, 77 on January 24-27, 79 on January 28-30 and 77 on January 31 and February 1.

     

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on December 23-24, 8 on December 25, 5 on December 26 through January 1, then 8, 10, 20, 22, 16, 14 and 6 on January 2-8, 5 on January 9-13, 10 on January 14, 15 on January 15-16, 25 and 28 on January 17-18, 12 on January 19-20, 8 on January 21, and 5 on January 22-28.

     

    From Australia's Space Weather Services:


    Subj: SWS Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning 16/57

    Issued At 0002 UTC/22 December 2016

    By the Australian Space Forecast Centre.

     

    The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole is expected to keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced from 22 to 24 December. Minor storms may be observed throughout this period with the possibility of some major storm periods on 22 and 23 December.

     

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED

    DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM

    FROM 22-24 DECEMBER 2016

     

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

    22 Dec:  Active to minor storm, some major storm periods possible

    23 Dec:  Active to minor storm, isolated major storm periods possible

    24 Dec:  Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods possible

     

    We also have the weekly geomagnetic prediction for December 23 to January 18 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group.


    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on December 30-31, January 1, 8-11

    Mostly quiet on December 27-28, January 2, 12, 15-16

    Quiet to unsettled on January 2-3, 14, 29

    Quiet to active on December 23-26, January 4, 6-7, 13, 17

    Active to disturbed on January 5, 18


    Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on December 23-25, January 3-8, 17-18.

     

     

    W4KUT's comments on Cycle 19 in last week's bulletin drew quite a response.


    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote: "Interesting comments from W4KUT regarding solar Cycle 19. I have heard from 6 meter ops who were active during Cycle 19 of daily North America coast to coast F2 contacts on 6 meters with just a few watts on AM and indoor dipoles during the fall and winter months. With the higher F2 MUF, 6 meter contacts also occurred from the Midwest to New England and California via F2.


    "International DX was limited due to many countries, particularly in Region 1, not having a 50 MHz allocation. The IGY, however, gave special permission to a few operations from Region 1, so several stations completed WAC on 50 MHz during Cycle 19.


    "This was a comment re. cycle 19 in 1957 from the UKSMG regarding 6 meters from Japan: 'During the peak of Cycle 19, the fall DX season of 1957, North America was coming in every day to Japan (on 50 MHz). At the same time, VE (Canada), KL7 (Alaska), and KH6 (Hawaii) signals were also heard every day. On October 9, 1958 -  JA3CE and CT3AE (Madeira Island) had a QSO establishing the new record via long path for 50 MHz of over 25,000 km.' (http://www.uksmg.org/content/historyjapan.htm[1])"



    KH6CJJ wrote: "My novice license was issued in 1957.  As a Novice, I was limited to CW with crystal control and had only one or two crystals in the 15-meter novice band. As I remember, one was around 21.175. In the evenings, I would hear VKs and ZLs operating AM around that frequency with great signals. I started calling them on CW and worked many cross mode.  My 60-watt signal was loud enough there to cause them to see who was calling, even though I was many kc away and on CW.


    "I got my Conditional (General, for those who did not have access to an FCC examination office) license in 1958. Band conditions were so good that in the Fall and Spring I would cause big pileups of Europeans on 15 while running 40 watts AM with my Heathkit DX-35.  Europe is the toughest place to work from Hawaii and I have never had the same pileups ever since, even running more power on SSB with a better antenna."



    Max White, M0VNG, sent this article about activity at the core of the Sun: http://bit.ly/2ie0EYl[2]



    Here is an article from the Chinese Academy of Sciences regarding sunspot helicity, which I had not heard of: http://bit.ly/2i05pG4[3]

     

    Helicity definition: https://www.aa.washington.edu/research/HITsi/research/helicity[4]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6]. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for December 15 through 21 were 12, 0, 0, 13, 12, 25, and 15, with a mean of 11. 10.7 cm flux was 72.5, 72.6, 72.1, 72.3, 72.8, 74.9, and 75, with a mean of 73.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 6, 9, 5, 6, and 23, with a mean of 7.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 3, 6, 5, 4, and 18, with a mean of 5.7.

     

     


    [1] http://www.uksmg.org/content/historyjapan.htm
    [2] http://bit.ly/2ie0EYl
    [3] http://bit.ly/2i05pG4
    [4] https://www.aa.washington.edu/research/HITsi/research/helicity
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 13 21:17:24 2017
    01/13/2017

    No sunspots were visible on January 1-2 and none on January 4-11, although a spot is just rotating into view today. Our reporting week is January 5-11, so the average daily sunspot number for that period was zero. For a look at recent sunspot numbers, check ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt[1] and note the many zeroes.

    Average daily solar flux this week was 72.5, down from 73.1 the week before. Average planetary A index rose 5 points to 14.3, while average mid-latitude A index increased from 6.3 to 10.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 80 and 82 on January 13-14, 85 on January 15-19, 76 on January 20-25, 74 on January 26-28, 73 on January 29 through February 1, 72 on February 2-7, 74 on February 8, and 76 on February 9-21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 13-14, 5 on January 15, 10 on January 16, 20 on January 17-19, 18 on January 20, 20 on January 21-22, 10 on January 23, 5 on January 24-26, then 12, 15, 7, 10 and 12 on January 27-31, then 16, 18, 20, 16, 12 and 5 on February 1-6, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on February 7-10, 5 on February 11-12, then 25, 20, 25 and 18 on February 13-16, and 20 on February 17-18.

     

    This from Sky & Telescope regarding our spotless sun: http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/the-spotless-sun/[2]

    And, another: https://www.sott.net/article/339435-Sunspots-vanish-space-weather-continues[3]

     

    From Jon Jones, N0JK: "Good sporadic E on 6 meters January 8, 9 and 10th, 2017.

    "Best probably day so far January 9, 6 meters was open from coast to coast with some double hop Es worked from the west coast to 8 land confirmed by this spot:

     

    "W6XK       17/01/09 1958Z  50276.0 EN81LI CM97 Copied in OH      N8EHW

     

    "K7JA DM03 notes 10 hours of Sporadic-E on 6 meters on January 9. December 2016 was quite poor, so I'm not sure yet why January, 2017 is so much better, but will roll with it.

    "I worked AI1K in DM34 and KA7JOI in DM54 with just a 10 W SSB with an MFJ-9406 and a mag mount whip antenna on the car from the Kansas City VA Hospital parking lot during a short break from work at 1850 UTC on January 9. Both stations were very strong via Sporadic-E on 6 meters. KA7JOI was so loud he sounded like was just a few cars away! K5SW observed that January 9 was 'like summer E-skip on 6.'"

     

    NASA released an update on the current solar cycle: https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml[4]

     

    From OK1HH, F.K. Janda on Thursday, January 12:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 13 to February 8, 2017:

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    "Quiet on January 16, 26

    "Mostly quiet on January 13, 24-25

    "Quiet to unsettled on January 14-15, 23, 29, 31, February 5

    "Quiet to active on January 17, 20, 22, 27, 30, February 3-4, 6, 8

    "Active to disturbed on January 18-19, 21, 28, February 1-2, 7

    "Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on January 18-20, (21-24,) 26, (31,) February (1-5,) 6-7

    "Remark:

    "- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    "- Observed indicia of upcoming MAJOR CHANGES in solar activity!

    "... Therefore, the current forecast is less reliable ...

    "Beware of paraskavedekatriaphobia tomorrow!"

    I am particularly pleased to see the OK1HH warning about paraskavedekatriaphobia, something we don't hear much about anymore. In case you are wondering that paraskavedekatriaphobia might be, it is fear of Friday the 13th!

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    In archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for January 5 through 11, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 73.3, 72, 72, 71.5, 71.2, 72.7, and 74.5, with a mean of 72.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 16, 20, 16, 12, 10, and 8, with a mean of 14.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 15, 14, 14, 11, 8, 5, and 7, with a mean of 10.6.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [2] http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/the-spotless-sun/
    [3] https://www.sott.net/article/339435-Sunspots-vanish-space-weather-continues [4] https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 20 22:45:22 2017
    01/20/2017

    Last week's bulletin featured zero sunspots for the entire seven days. This week (January 12-18) the average daily sunspot number rose to 22.6.

    Average daily solar flux rose from 72.5 to 77.1. Average planetary A index declined from 14.3 to 6.

    Predicted solar flux is 80 on January 20-23, then 78, 77 and 75 on January 24-26, 77 on January 27 through February 1, 76 on February 2, 75 on February 3-8, 76 on February 9, 77 on February 10-14, 78 on February 15, 80 on February 16-21, 78 on January 22, and 77 on January 23-28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 10 and 8 on January 20-23, 5 on January 24-26, then 12, 15, 7, 10, 12 on January 27-31, then 16, 18, 20, 16, 12, 10 and 8 on February 1-7, and 5 on February 8-12, then 8, 22 and 18 on February 13-15, 16 on February 16-18, then 12 and 8 on February 19-20, then 5 on February 21-22 and 12, 15, 7 and 10 on February 23-26.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 20-February 15, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on January 25-26, February 10, 13-14

    Mostly quiet on January 24, 30, February 6, 9, 11-12

    Quiet to unsettled on January 23, 27, 31, February 1, 3

    Quiet to active on January 20-22, 28-29, February 7-8

    Active to disturbed on January February 2, 4-5, 15

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on January 20-21, (22-25,) 26, (31,) February (1-5,) 9, (15)

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Observed indicia of upcoming MAJOR CHANGES in solar activity!

      Therefore, the current forecast is less reliable.

     

    Time now to examine the average daily sunspot number for 2016, which was 36.8. Starting from solar cycle 24 minimum in 2008, annual average daily sunspot numbers were 4.7, 5.1, 25.5, 80.1, 82.3, 97.1, 121.2, 70.1 and 36.8.

     

    The January 11, 2017 issue of ARRL Contest Update (current and back issues available at http://www.arrl.org/contest-update-issues[1]) mentions a new online propagation prediction program from G4FKH via RSGB. The link to ITURHFprop is at http://bit.ly/2jTVHFQ[2].

     

    The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) telescope in Chile is providing new detailed images of the sun. See http://bit.ly/2ka6JKh[3] for details.

     

    More info from regular contributor David Moore: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170117101835.htm[4]

     

    John Kelley, K4WY, wrote on January 17: "Great timely info as always thank you! I wanted to share with you that on January 2 on 17 meters I worked E51DMC, VK2DX and ZL4FF all within a spread of an hour. I was in Virginia and running 100 watts to a loop and was really surprised when I checked the SN count and A and K indexes. Could not have been much worse! So, I am at a loss as to how to explain the propagation! But I liked it at least for that hour."

    The sunspot number was zero on that date, and the day prior. There was one brief sunspot appearance the next day, then none at all from January 4-11. But given those numbers and daily solar flux (around 72-73) there should be some pretty good propagation during that period. W6ELprop predicts for that date that ZL4FF might receive your 17 meter, 100-watt signal from 1530-1930z fairly reliably.

    To VK2DX, the prediction shows good propagation 1800-2100z. To E51DMC, it looks good on 17 meters from 1700-2030z.

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9]. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for January 12 through 18, 2017 were 11, 24, 25, 23, 24, 26, and 25, with a mean of 22.6. 10.7 cm flux was 75.5, 74.9, 76.6, 77.5, 78.3, 78.6, and 78.6, with a mean of 77.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 5, 3, 4, and 17, with a mean of 6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 3, and 11, with a mean of 3.9.

     

     


    [1] http://www.arrl.org/contest-update-issues
    [2] http://bit.ly/2jTVHFQ
    [3] http://bit.ly/2ka6JKh
    [4] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170117101835.htm
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 27 21:18:31 2017
    01/27/2017

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 22.6 to 52.7 (from zero two weeks ago) and solar flux from 77.1 to 83.9, for the January 19-25 reporting week.

    In addition to this recent uptick, the first sunspot group of Cycle 25 (12620) appeared on December 18. Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, has an excellent article about this in the next (February) issue of the Northwest Indiana DX Club newsletter (see http://nwidxclub.weebly.com/newsletters[1] in early February).

     

    Tamitha Skov mentioned the new Cycle 25 spot in a recent video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMEJEwlm4gw[2]


    Sunspot 12620 was expected to return (if still active) around January 4-6, but did not show again. It appeared in these alerts on December 21-24:

    http://bit.ly/2jZ04Q0[3]


    Here is an image from December 22: http://bit.ly/2kt1UbM[4]

     


    Predicted solar flux is 82 on January 27, 80 on January 28, 78 on January 29 through February 3, 75 on February 4-7, 76 on February 8, 77 on February 9-12, then 78, 79, and 81 on February 13-15, 83 on February 16-18, then 85, 83 and 82 on February 19-21, 80 on February 22-24, 78 on February 25, 77 on February 26-27, 76 on February 29 through March 1, 75 on March 2-6, and 76 on March 7.


    Predicted planetary A index is 15 on January 27-28, 8 on January 29, 12 on January 30-31, then 18, 15, 20 and 16 on February 1-4, 12, 10 and 8 on February 5-7, 5 on February 8-13, 15 on February 14, 10 on February 15-16, 8 on February 17-19, 5 on February 20-22, then 12, 15, 8, 10, 12 and 16 on February 23-28, and 18, 20, 16 and 12 on March 1-4.

     

    F.K Janda, OK1HH, sent us this:


    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 27-February 22, 2017


    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on January 27, February 1, 11-12, 14, 22

    Mostly quiet on January 30, February 9-10, 20-21

    Quiet to unsettled on January 31, February 13, 19

    Quiet to active on January 28-29, February 3-5, 15, 17

    Active to disturbed on February 2, 6-7 (8, 16, 18)


    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on January 26, (31,) February (1-5,) 9, (15)


    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."


     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].


    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].


    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9]. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].


    Sunspot numbers for January 19 through 25, 2017 were 26, 61, 67, 61, 53, 55, and 46, with a mean of 52.7. 10.7 cm flux was 79.5, 83.2, 86.1, 86.8, 84.1, 82.3, and 85.1, with a mean of 83.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 11, 9, 5, 3, and 6, with a mean of 8. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 10, 9, 9, 8, 2, 3, and 4, with a mean of 6.4.

     

     


    [1] http://nwidxclub.weebly.com/newsletters
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMEJEwlm4gw
    [3] http://bit.ly/2jZ04Q0
    [4] http://bit.ly/2kt1UbM
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 3 20:47:27 2017
    02/03/2017

    Over the past reporting week (January 26 through February 1) average daily sunspot number declined 21.1 points to 31.6, compared to the previous seven days.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 8 to 15.6, and average mid-latitude A index rose 5 points to 11.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 75 on February 3, 74 on February 4-5, 75 on February 6-10, 77 on February 11-12, then 78, 79 and 81 on February 13-15, 83 on February 16-18, 85 on February 19-21, 80 on February 22-24, then 75 and 76 on February 25-26, 75 on February 27 through March 1, 74 on March 2-3, 72 on March 4-5, 75 and 76 on March 6-7, 77 on March 8-11 and 78, 79 and 81 on March 12-14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 16, 14, 12, 10 and 8 on February 3-7, 5 on February 8-13, 15 on February 14, 10 on February 15-16, 8 on February 17-18, 5 on February 19-21, 10 and 15 on February 22-23, 10 on February 24-26, then 25, 20 and 18 on February 27 through March 1, 15 on March 2-4, then 10 and 8 on March 5-6, 5 on March 7-12, 15 on March 13, 10 on March 14-15, and 8 on March 16-17.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 3-March 2, 2017 from OK1HH. Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on February 12, 26

    Mostly quiet on February 10-11, 13-14, 22-23

    Quiet to unsettled on February 9, 21, 27

    Quiet to active on February 4-6, 8, 16-17, 20, 25, 28

    Active to disturbed on February 3, 7, 15, 18-19, 24, March 1-2

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on February 3-7, (8-9,) 16-21, (22,) 26-27

    Remark: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    Thanks to David Moore for this article on how NASA's Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope sees events on the Sun's far side: http://bit.ly/2kZmd4h[1]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

     Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6]. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for January 26 through February 1, 2017 were 31, 33, 28, 24, 35, 42, and 28, with a mean of 31.6. 10.7 cm flux was 83.1, 80.3, 78.5, 76.6, 77, 76, and 76, with a mean of 78.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 21, 9, 7, 6, 24, and 29, with a mean of 15.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 17, 7, 5, 5, 16, and 19, with a mean of 11.4.

     

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2kZmd4h
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 10 23:07:28 2017
    02/10/2017

    Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 31.6 to 21.3 last week, and average daily solar flux declined from 78.2 to 73.5. The sunspot number was zero on February 8, but recovered to 15 on February 9, with the appearance of one new sunspot group.

    Average planetary A index went from 15.6 to 12.9, and average mid-latitude A index from 11.4 to 9.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 74 on February 10-12, 78 on February 13-17, 80 on February 18-19, 82 on February 20-21, 81 and 79 on February 22-23, 77 on February 24-25, 75 on February 26 through March 1, 74 on March 2-3, 73 on March 4, 72 on March 5-9, 75 on March 10-13, then 76, 77 and 78 on March 14-16, 80 on March 17-18, 82 on March 19-20 then 81 and 79 on March 21-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 10-13, 10 on February 14, 8 on February 15-18, 5 on February 19-21, then 10, 15, 10 and 10 on February 22-25, then 5, 25 and 30 on February 26-28, then 25, 20, 15 and 12 on March 1-4, 10 on March 5-7, 8 on March 8, 5 on March 9-12, 15 on March 13, 10 on March 14-15, 8 on March 16-17, 5 on March 18-20, and 10 and 12 on March 21-22. The index then jumps to 25 on March 26.

     

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, sends this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 10-March 9, 2017.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on February 10-11, 13-14, 21, 23-24, 26, March 8-9

    Mostly quiet on February 12, 15, 19, March 7

    Quiet to unsettled-sometimes, hardly to be forecasted

    Quiet to active on February 17, 20, 22, 25, 27, March 3-6

    Active to disturbed on February 16, 18, 28, March 1-2

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on February 16-21, (22,) 26-27.

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK, of Lawrence, Kansas wrote on February 7, "After a slow December and January, February has come alive with winter season Sporadic-E on 6 meters. The last week has had several 6 meter openings, among the best are February 3/4 and February 7/8.

    "On February 7 (February 8, UTC) strong Sporadic-E on 50 MHz from IA, KS, NE and MN to south Texas starting at 2330z Feb. 7. N0LL EM09 logged W5TN (EM00), N5XJ (EM10), N5LNO (EM00) and others. I heard the K5AB/b EM01 50.061 MHz strong near the end of the opening at 0155z February 8."

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[1]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[2].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[3]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[4].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[5]. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[6].

    Sunspot numbers for February 2 through 8, 2017 were 40, 39, 22, 22, 15, 11, and 0, with a mean of 21.3. 10.7 cm flux was 75.3, 75.1, 74, 72.6, 72.5, 72.1, and 73.1, with a mean of 73.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 18, 11, 15, 13, 7, and 5, with a mean of 12.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 18, 14, 8, 11, 10, 5, and 3, with a mean of 9.9.

     

     


    [1] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [2] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [3] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Feb 20 19:43:52 2017
    02/17/2017

    In the last reporting week (February 9-15) average daily sunspot numbers declined from 21.3 to 17.6, and average daily solar flux rose from 73.5 to 75.1. Average planetary A index dropped from 12.9 to 4.7, and mid-latitude A index from 9.9 to 2.9.


    Predicted solar flux is 74 on February 17-19, then 77, 80, 83, 85 and 80 on February 20-24, 78 on February 25-26, 76 on February 27-28, 75 on March 1-2, 73 on March 3-4, 72 on March 5-7, 73 and 74 on March 8-9, 75 on March 10-11, 78 on March 12-15, 80 on March 16-18, then 82, 85 and 82 on March 19-21, 80 on March 22-23, 78 on March 24-25, 76 on March 26-27, 75 on March 28-29 and 73 on March 30-31.


    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10 and 8 on February 17-19, 5 on February 20-21, 8 and 14 on February 22-23, 10 on February 24-25, then 5, 25, 30, 25 and 20 on February 26 through March 2, 15 on March 3-5, 8 on March 6, 5 on March 7-12, then 8, 12 and 10 on March 13-15, 8 on March 16-17, 5 on March 18-20, then 10 and 15 on March 21-22, then 10 on March 23-24 and 5, 25, 30, 25 and 20 on March 25-29, and 15 on March 30 through April 1.

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 17-March 15, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on February 21, 24, 26, March 8, 11-12
    Mostly quiet on February 19-20, March 9-10
    Quiet to unsettled February 17, March 4, 7, 13-15
    Quiet to active on February 18, 25, March 3, 6
    Active to disturbed on February (22-23,) 27-28, March 1-2, 5

    Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on February 16-17, (18-22, 26-27,) March 2-5

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."


    The weekly ARRL Letter (published every Thursday online) carried a fascinating and timely article this week about the reactivation of the HAARP facility in Alaska via Professor Chris Fallen, KL3WX: http://bit.ly/2kwpB6J[1]


    The ARRL Letter also runs a weekly preview of this ARRL Propagation Bulletin. Here is the latest version of the HAARP blog: https://sites.google.com/alaska.edu/gakonahaarpoon/operations-news[2]


    The ARRL International DX CW Contest begins this evening, UTC. (http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[3])


    Starting tonight is also the Novice Rig Roundup, which is an on-air activity concentrating on operating old Novice ham transmitters from the 1950s and 1960s, which were all crystal controlled and generated 75 W or less, CW only (except for AM on 2 meters). Let's see. Where is my old DX-20?

    Stations using modern rigs are welcome also. Check it out
    at http://novicerigroundup.com/[4] .

    Thanks to David Moore for this, concerning a slower spinning Sun: http://to.pbs.org/2lJmPrX[5]


    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].


    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].


    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].
    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].


    Sunspot numbers for February 9 through 15, 2017 were 15, 18, 18, 18, 16, 15, and 23, with a mean of 17.6. 10.7 cm flux was 75.4, 74, 75.7, 76.2, 74.8, 74.5, and 74.8, with a mean of 75.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 5, 3, 5, 2, and 3, with a mean of 4.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 5, 3, 2, 2, 1, and 2, with a mean of 2.9.

     

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2kwpB6J
    [2] https://sites.google.com/alaska.edu/gakonahaarpoon/operations-news
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
    [4] http://novicerigroundup.com/
    [5] http://to.pbs.org/2lJmPrX
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 24 20:56:40 2017
    02/24/2017

    At 0124 UTC on February 22 Australian Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning for February 22-24.

    "The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole is expected to raise geomagnetic activity to active levels from 22 to 24 February with the possibility of minor storm periods on 23 and 24 February.

    Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high speed wind stream from 23-24 February 2017.

    Geomagnetic Activity Forecast

    23 Feb:  Unsettled to Active, isolated Minor Storm periods possible

    24 Feb:  Unsettled to Active"

    Spaceweather.com[1] on February 22 issued a Solar Wind Advisory: "Earth is about to enter a stream of solar wind flowing from a hole in the sun's atmosphere. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Feb. 23rd as the solar wind speed quickens to 550 km/s or more. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Thursday and Friday nights. See updates and sightings at Spaceweather.com."

    Over the past week, February 16-22, average daily sunspot number compared to the previous seven days increased from 17.6 to 19.1, while average solar flux increased from 75.1 to 78.5.

    Geomagnetic indicators were slightly higher, with average planetary A index increasing from 4.7 to 11.3, and average mid-latitude A index changing from 2.9 to 9.

    Predicted solar flux (on February 22) is 84 on February 23-24, 83 on February 25, 82 on February 26 through March 1, 78 on March 2, 73 on March 3-4, 72 on March 5-7, 73 and 74 on March 8-9, 75 on March 10-14, then 74, 75, 77 and 79 on March 15-18, 82 on March 19-24, then 80, 78 and 76 on March 25-27, 75 on March 28-29, 73 on March 30-31, and 72 on April 1-3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 12 on February 23-24, 8 on February 25-26, then 16, 24 and 20 on February 27 through March 1, 15 on March 2-5, 8 on March 6, 5 on March 7-14, then 10, 20, 15, 10 and 12 on March 15-19, 10 on March 20-21, then 12, 15, 20 and 18 on March 22-25, then 8, 30, 25 and 20 on March 26-29.

    Geomagnetic predictions are included as usual this week from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, but first is a shorter term forecast from Thomas Bayer of the Department of Geomagnetism at the Budkov Observatory.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 24-March 2, 2017

    Quiet: episodically Feb 25-26

    Unsettled: Feb 25-Mar 2

    Active: Feb 24-25, 28, Mar 1

    Minor storm:  possible Feb 24, 28

    Major storm: 0

    Severe storm: 0

    Geomagnetic activity summary:

    We expect unsettled conditions during the next week. Tomorrow, Friday, February 24, we expect an active episode, unlikely minor storm event. The other active episode is probable at February 28-March 1. The activity is probable at active/minor storm again.

    The other days, we expect at most unsettled conditions. During the coming weekend, the activity can briefly decrease to quiet level, then, we expect at most unsettled conditions till the active episode mentioned above.

    Tomas Bayer

    RWC Prague

    Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague

    Department of Geomagnetism

    Budkov observatory (BDV)

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 24-March 22, 2017

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on March 7-8, 11-12, 15

    Mostly quiet on February 25-26, March 6, 14

    Quiet to unsettled February 24, March 9-10, 13, (21-22)

    Quiet to active on February 27, March 3-5, 16, 19-20

    Active to disturbed on February 28, March 1-2, 17-18

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on February 27-28, March 3-5, (6-8)

    Remark: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK, (editor of QST's "The World Above 50 MHz" column) sent some notes on last weekend's ARRL International CW DX Contest. (The Phone contest weekend will be on March 4-5, 2017): "The 10-meter band was like day and night between Saturday and Sunday of the ARRL DX CW contest.

    "I operated fixed mobile single band on 10 with a full size 1/4 wave whip both days. Saturday was nice and sunny, but almost a dead band. I found PJ2T and PJ4X, both weak with QSB, and worked them. I called XR2K for over an hour with no luck. That was it. Is this how 10 meters will be at solar minimum?

    "Ten meters was so much better Sunday. It was a flashback to how 10 was in the 2016 ARRL DX CW contest when the solar flux was around 100. I set up, turned on the radio and 100-W PY2NY was blasting in on 28.034 MHz.

    "Chile, Uruguay and Brazil were strong for hours. Caribbean and Central American contest stations were up and down the band. Not bad for a solar flux of just 77. 

    "I worked PJ7AAA at 1856Z and he was running just an Elecraft K3 transceiver and a Buddipole antenna. I put XR2K in the log with one call at 1940Z and picked up the KH6LC multi-op at 1955 Z for Hawaii on what sounded like side-scatter. They were about 559, but hearing well. KH6LC said in their 3830 post: 'We watched 10 meters all weekend and it paid off Sunday morning when it opened for us at 1715Z.' KH6LC made 488 North American contacts on 10.

    "Ten meters folded for me around 2200Z. I dropped down to 15 and gave a very loud KH6LC (operator Fred, K6IJ) a contact and then worked A31MM. Fred made 1690 contest contacts from KH6LC on 15 meters. The solar flux was the same: 77 on both Saturday and Sunday. Why was 10 so much better on Sunday?"

     

    According to the ARRL DX Bulletin, the CQ 160 meter SSB Contest is this weekend. Check http://www.cq160.com/rules.htm[2] for rules.

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7]. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for February 16 through 22, 2017 were 23, 14, 13, 23, 25, 19, and 17, with a mean of 19.1. 10.7 cm flux was 74, 74.6, 76.6, 78.1, 80.7, 82.5, and 83.2, with a mean of 78.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 20, 16, 10, 10, 4, and 10, with a mean of 11.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 16, 11, 9, 8, 4, and 8, with a mean of 9.

     

     


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] http://www.cq160.com/rules.htm
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 3 20:18:09 2017
    03/03/2017

    On March 2 at 2353 UTC the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning for March 3.

    "The Earth is currently under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. On 3 March geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active levels. Isolated minor storm periods are also possible."

    This reporting week (February 23 through March 1, 2017) sunspot and solar flux averages rose while geomagnetic indices remained about the same, compared to the previous seven days. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 19.1 to 34.1, and average daily solar flux went from 78.5 to 81.3.

    Average planetary A index barely changed from 11.3 to 13.1, and average mid-latitude A index (measured in Virginia) went from 9 to 8.7. The numbers went in opposite directions, but were each barely changed.

    Predicted solar flux is 79 on March 3, 78 on March 4-5, 77 on March 6-7, 76 on March 8, 75 on March 9-14, then 74, 75, 77, 79, and 80 on March 15-19, 82 on March 20-23, 80 on March 24-25, 79 on March 26, 77 on March 27-28, 79 on March 29-31, 75 on April 1, 72 on April 2-3, 73 and 74 on April 4-5, 75 on April 6-10, and 74, 75 and 77 on April 11-13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22, 14, 10 and 8 on March 3-6, 5 on March 7-8, 8 on March 9, 5 on March 10-14 then 10, 20, 15, 10 and 8 on March 15-19, then 5, 8, 10, 15, and 8 on March 20-24, 5 on March 25-26, then 12, 25, 20, 15 and 8 on March 27-31, 5 on April 1-10, and 10, 20, 15 and 10 on April 11-14.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this forecast:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 3-28, 2017

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on March 8-9, 12, 14, 26

    Mostly quiet on March 10-11, 13, 15, 25

    Quiet to unsettled March 7, 20-22, 24

    Quiet to active on March 3-4, 6, 16, 18-19, 23, 27

    Active to disturbed on March 5, 17, 28

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on March 3-5, (6-8, 20-22,) 23-26.

    Remark:  Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

     

    We've been tracking a 3-month moving average of sunspot numbers for several years now. The peak was centered on February and March 2014, when the 3-month averages were 146.4 and 148.2. The average centered on the end of 2014 was 107.8, and a year later was 55.4. At the end of last year, the average was 21, and the average centered on January 2017 was 20.6. The cycle will probably reach minimum in 2020.

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK, of Eastern Kansas sent this 10-meter update: "Good conditions continued on 10 meters this week.  The G2 class geomagnetic storm may have helped north - south paths. The TX5T Austral Islands DXpedition was loud on 28.027 MHz and in my log with one call at 2045z March 2. This on my mobile station. I saw aurora contacts spotted on 6 meters March 1 such as N8JX en64 to K9MU en44 at 2038z."

     

    Dr. Tamitha Skov issued this solar storm forecast video on February 23: http://bit.ly/2mNFO5g[1]

     

     This weekend is the ARRL International DX SSB contest. See http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[2] for details.

      

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7]. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for February 23 through March 1, 2017 were 18, 27, 25, 35, 40, 39, and 55, with a mean of 34.1. 10.7 cm flux was 83.3, 82.1, 80, 79, 82.2, 81.6, and 80.8, with a mean of 81.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 20, 7, 2, 8, 8, and 36, with a mean of 13.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 15, 6, 0, 6, 5, and 21, with a mean of 8.7.

     

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2mNFO5g
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 10 19:37:41 2017
    03/10/2017

    Over four days last week, we saw a blank Sun, starting with March 4. On March 5, the sunspot number was 11 (indicating a single sunspot), then on March 6-8 the Sun was blank again. Thus, we saw an average daily sunspot number of just 14.1, a 20-point drop from the previous seven days.

    Yesterday (Thursday) still no sunspots (our reporting week for calculating averages runs Thursday through Wednesday, so the zero-sunspot number for Thursday will be included in the average for the March 17 bulletin).

    Average daily solar flux decreased by seven points from 81.3 to 74.3.

    Geomagnetic indicators increased, with average planetary A index rising from 13.1 to 20.9, and mid-latitude A index went from 8.7 to 15.

    Predicted solar flux is 71 on March 10-12, 73 on March 13-16, 76 on March 17, 78 on March 18-23, 76 on March 24, 75 on March 25-29, 73 on March 30 through April 5, 72 on April 6-7, 74 on April 8-12, 76 on April 13, and 78 on April 14-19.

    The planetary A index outlook shows 10 on March 10-11, 8 on March 12-15, then 20, 15, 10 and 8 on March 16-19, then 5, 8, 10, 15 and 8 on March 20-24, 5 on March 25-26, then 12, 35, 30, 20, 18, 12 and 8 on March 27 through April 2, 5 on April 3-4, 8 on April 5-6, 5 on April 7-10, then 10, 20, 15, 10 and 8 on April 11-15, and 5, 8, 10, 15 and 8 on April 16-20.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 10-April 5, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on March 14-15, 21, 26

    Mostly quiet on March 10-13, 20

    Quiet to unsettled March 16, 22, 25, April 4

    Quiet to active on March 18-19, 24, 27-29, 31, April 1-3, 5

    Active to disturbed on March 17, 23, 30

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on March (20-22,) 23-27, (April 3-8)

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK, sent a tip about a 10-meter opening last weekend from 1809-1839 UTC: "There was an unusual 10-meter opening in the ARRL DX SSB contest last weekend between Bermuda and W1, W2, W3 and W4 early Sunday afternoon. Kurt, VP9/W6PH, was in Bermuda at VP9GE's station for the contest.

    "Kurt related 'I decided to listen to the beacons on 10 meters and heard one in FN32. I decided to try a CQ on 28.401 MHz and, lo and behold, a very loud K3OO came back to me and said he saw the blip on his panadapter. He said he would spot me and that started the ball rolling.'

    "Kurt then made over 400 contacts on 10 meter SSB with strong signals. The distance, high signal strength and time of day suggest the propagation was one-hop Sporadic-E. Kurt noted no contacts to the west coast of North America on 10, which would have been F-layer. Sporadic-E can occur in March, though it is rare. The month of March has the lowest amount of Sporadic-E propagation of any month in North America. The 10-meter Sporadic-E opening was an unexpected treat for Kurt and significantly helped his score."

    Jon sent a map from DXmaps.com[1] showing the impressive opening from 1809-1839 UTC on March 5. It showed a tangle of contacts from North America to Caribbean, but I redid it on the DXmaps.com[2] web site specifying a World Map, and it showed contacts all the way down to 54 degrees south latitude, around the southern tip of South America. Try it out yourself.

     

    David Moore sent a photo taken in Norway of an aurora that was gone in about 10 seconds! See it: http://earthsky.org/todays-image/green-aurora-norway-2017-photo[3].

     

    W9WS sent this, about an experiment regarding space weather on the International Space Station. I'm pretty sure that the Steven Powell mentioned in this article is N2BU: http://bit.ly/2nmFQQU[4]

     

    Stan Tacker, N5OHM, wrote: "Always appreciate your info. Yes 10 meters has been opening up from North American to South America. The window is usually short, but when it is open, it's gangbusters. It reminds me of the days when guys ran scanners monitoring 10-meter FM repeaters to hear the band open up."

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9]. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for March 2 through 8, 2017 were 52, 36, 0, 11, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of only 14.1. 10.7 cm flux was 79.1, 78, 75.2, 72.8, 72.4, 71.7, and 70.6, with a mean of 74.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 32, 22, 22, 17, 25, 16, and 12, with a mean of 20.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 23, 15, 18, 11, 16, 13, and 9, with a mean of 15.

     

     


    [1] http://www.dxmaps.com/spots/map.php
    [2] http://www.dxmaps.com/spots/map.php
    [3] http://earthsky.org/todays-image/green-aurora-norway-2017-photo
    [4] http://bit.ly/2nmFQQU
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 17 19:59:20 2017
    03/17/2017

    There haven't been sunspots since March 3, other than March 5, when one sunspot appeared for only one day. Also, solar flux values have recently dipped below 70, for the first time since the other side of this solar cycle.

    Solar flux appears at 70 over the past week: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt[1]

    But this is an approximation. Resolved to 0.10, you can see that it is dipping lower: http://www.spaceweather.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php[2]. You want to look at the Observed Flux column.

    Average daily sunspot number dropped from 14.1 to zero. Average daily solar flux went from 74.3 to 70.3.

    Average daily planetary A Index quieted from 20.9 to 8.1, while average mid-latitude A index went from 15 to 6.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 71 on March 17, 72 on March 18-20, 73 on March 21, 74 on March 22-23, 76 on March 24-25, 74 on March 26-29, 72 on March 30 through April 3, and 70 on April 4-9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on March 17-18, 5 on March 19-20, then 8, 10, 8 and 8 on March 21-24, 5 on March 25-27, then 35, 30, 20, 18, 15, 20 and 15 on March 28 through April 3, 12 on April 4-5, 10 and 5 on April 6-7, then 8 on April 8-13, 12 and 10 on April 14-15, 5 on April 16-17, then 10, 15 and 8 on April 18-20, and 5 on April 21-23.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent us this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 17-April 12, 2017.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on March 26, April 6-7, 9-10
    Mostly quiet on March 21, April 5, 11
    Quiet to unsettled March 22, (27,) April 1-2, 4
    Quiet to active on March 17-20, (23-25,) 28, 31, April (8, 12)
    Active to disturbed on March 29-30, (April 3)

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on March (18-22,) 23-27, April (3-8,) 14-?

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or
    lower reliability of prediction."


    Jon, N0JK wrote on March 16: "There was a 6 meter Es opening last Friday March 10. It was open from Florida to W1, W2, and W3 between 1600-1800z. The W3DOG/b beacon was spotted in Florida.

    W3DOG/B  17/03/10 1717Z  50071.1 fm28<>el87 woof woof   KD4ESV
    W3DOG/B  17/03/10 1625Z  50071.0 FM28 589 IN FL EL87    WX4G

    This is the second Es opening for the month of March, 2017."

    Later, he wrote: "Potential for aurora March 28-29."

    The National Science Foundation will abandon an historic solar observatory in October, but New Mexico State University with take charge and sustain it: http://bit.ly/2mxqFV0[3]

    The vernal equinox is very close! The days and weeks before and after are always a good time for HF propagation, and it is on March 20, this coming Monday.

    A study on sunspot number re-calibration: http://bit.ly/2ngm1yi[4]

    Also, here is a piece on solar cycles suggesting that the next cycle may be larger than the current solar cycle: http://www.leif.org/research/Prediction-of-Solar-Cycles.pdf[5]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for March 9 through 15, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 71.2, 71, 70, 70.1, 70.3, 69.6, and 69.8, with a mean of 70.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 15, 12, 6, 9, 3, 5, and 7, with a mean of 8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 10, 14, 4, 7, 2, 3, and 5, with a mean of 6.4.


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
    [3] http://bit.ly/2mxqFV0
    [4] http://bit.ly/2ngm1yi
    [5] http://www.leif.org/research/Prediction-of-Solar-Cycles.pdf
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 24 18:19:37 2017
    03/24/2017

    The Sun just finished an extended period (16 days) of zero sunspots. There were none on March 4, one visible on March 5, then none on March 6-20. Finally, one sunspot group appeared on March 21-23, with a sunspot number of 12 on all three days.

    A sunspot number of 12 does not mean there were 12 sunspots. Every group of sunspots counts as 10 points, and every sunspot within those groups counts for one point. Therefore, the minimum non-zero sunspot number is 11. So, for the past three days, there were two sunspots in one group.

    The average daily sunspot number this week (March 16-22) was 3.4, compared to zero during the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux increased from 70.3 to 71.2.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 8.1 to 10 and average mid-latitude A index increased from 6.4 to 7.1.

    The mid-latitude A index is measured at one magnetometer at Wallops Island, Virginia while the planetary A index is calculated based on a number of magnetic observatories, most in the northern hemisphere.

    Predicted solar flux is 75 on March 24-26, 78 on March 27-30, 72 on March 31 through April 4, 71 on April 5, 70 on April 6-17, 71 on April 18, 72 on April 19 until May 1 and 71 again on May 2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14 on March 24, 8 on March 25-26, then 20, 40, 35, 20 and 18 on March 27-31, then 15, 20 and 15 on April 1-3, 12 on April 4-5, 10 on April 6, 5 on April 7-16, then 8, 12, 20, 8, 5 and 8 on April 17-22 then 8, 35, 30, 20, 18, 15, 20 and 15 on April 23-30, and 12 on May 1-2.

    The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning at 2336 UTC on March 23: "Due to the continued effect of the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole, solar wind speed is still high. IF Bz shows sufficiently southward values for long enough intervals of time, there is some possibility for some minor storm periods to occur on 24 March."

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH, geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 24-April 19, 2017

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on March 25, April 8-9, 14-15
    Mostly quiet on April 13, 19
    Quiet to unsettled March 26-28, April 10, 12, 18
    Quiet to active on March 24, 31, April 1-4, 6, 11, 17
    Active to disturbed on March 29-30, April 5, 7, 16

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on March 24, 30-31, April 1-4, (5-8,) 12-13. (14,) 16-20, Dates in parenthesis are less likely to have enhanced solar wind.

    This weekend is the CQ Worldwide SSB WPX Contest. The CW portion is on May 27-28. See http://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm[1] for details. One cool aspect of this contest is that unique prefixes count for multipliers. So, instead of counting states worked or countries worked and using those totals to multiply your final score, you total up the number of unique prefixes worked.

    Right now, as K7RA, I am not in much demand for this contest, because the K7 prefix is quite common. But starting in the 1980s, I was KT7H, and this made my call sought after as a desirable multiplier, depending on how many other stations in the contest had a call sign starting with KT7.

    The Washington Post comments on the naked Sun. Note there is a comment at the bottom from N3JLY. http://wapo.st/2nKw6nd[2]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for March 16 through 22, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 12, with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 70.5, 70.5, 70.2, 71.2, 72.7, 71, and 72.5, with a mean of 71.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 2, 2, 3, 26, and 27, with a mean of 10. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 1, 2, 2, 18, and 19, with a mean of 7.1.

     


    [1] http://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm
    [2] http://wapo.st/2nKw6nd
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 31 19:40:23 2017
    03/31/2017

    Solar activity rose over the past week, with average daily sunspot numbers rising from 3.4 to 29.7 and solar flux from 71.2 to 77.9.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 10 to 18.3, and average mid-latitude A index went from 7.1 to 13.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 86, 87 and 88 on March 31 till April 2, then 86, 84, 83 and 82 on April 3-6, 71 on April 7-14, 73 on April 15-17, 75 on April 18-22, 78 on April 23-26, 75 on April 27-29, 73 on April 30 to May 1 and 71 on May 2-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20 on March 31 through April 2, 15 on April 3-4, 12 on April 5-6, 5 on April 7-16, then 24, 25 and 10 on April 17-19, 5 on April 20-22, then 25, 40, 35, 20, 18 and 12 on April 23-28, and 8, 16, 12, 15 and 12 on April 29 through May 3, followed by 5 on May 4-13 and 24 on May 14.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 31-April 25, 2017.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on April 9-10, 14-16, 20-22
    mostly quiet on April 6, 8, 11
    quiet to unsettled April 4, 12-13, 19
    quiet to active on April 3, 5, 7, 23, 25
    active to disturbed on March 31, April 1-2, 17-18, 24

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on March 31, April 1-4, (5-8,) 12-13. (14,) 16-20, 25

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

    Tamitha Skov released a space weather video last week: http://bit.ly/2obVYcb[1]

    Jon Jones, N0JK, reported: "Aurora contacts reported on 6 meters March 27 along the northern tier states and Canada. This was due to a G2 geomagnetic storm from coronal wind stream."

    Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI, sent this item and a band-by-band resport from Costa Rica: "Don't know if you've seen this, but a magnetic precursor event to solar flares has been discovered, that may lead to short-term warnings before a flare occurs. See https://phys.org/news/2017-03-igniting-solar-flare-corona-lower-atm osphere.html[2]

    "The 6 meter drought that everyone has been complaining about up there has been even worse for us down here in the single-digit latitudes. It's been at least six months since I've logged a 6 meter QSO. In the wake of coronal hole passages, there have been a couple of evenings recently with some very modest TEP openings from here into Brazil and Argentina, but with only a small handful of stations heard weakly and no new stations not already worked many times. There has been no Sporadic E at all for many months - not even hearing the beacons from Venezuela and French Guiana that indicate our most common openings to the east. If there is supposed to be an inverse correlation between solar activity and Sporadic E, like the textbooks claim, you could have sure fooled me.

    "Not that there has been no Sporadic E at all; indeed, there has been very frequent Sporadic E openings into South America on 10 meters in the daytime here, and even frequent evening TEP openings into South America on 10 meters as well. But the signals are about what we would normally expect on 6 meter openings rather than 10 meters. MUFs from these events just aren't getting very far into the VHF. Conventional F2 openings on ten have become very rare now.

    "Other propagation on the upper HF bands has been poor - the declining solar activity has taken a big toll here, with most band openings starting later in the morning than in the past, and ending earlier in the late afternoon - and signals not being particularly strong when the band is open. The only saving grace has been that our mid-day break has been shorter and weaker than at the solar maximum, so it's often possible to hear signals and even work them at midday on 20 meters, which has not been possible at higher sunspot numbers. MUF has gotten high enough to open 17 meters on most days, but often it doesn't quite make it to 15 meters. So, when 15 meters is open, it's often the result of a weak Sporadic E event, or the aftermath of a coronal hole passage. During the last solar minimum, 15 meters would be open most days, but so far during this one, it's been hit and miss at best. And the solar minimum is just getting a good start.

    "Thirty meters has been the most reliable performer - almost always open into the States during the day and worldwide at night. Sadly, PSK activity seems to have declined on 30 meters, so I haven't worked as many stations with the ragchews I dearly love, just the spartan JT9 contacts. I sure wish we had phone privileges on that band.

    "Forty meters has been seeing a huge increase in QSO activity with conditions on 20 meters declining. There are evenings now where finding an open spot can be a bit of a problem. Most of what I hear on phone here is the States, but I am seeing a lot of eastern European DX on PSK, and my good friend, Michael, TI7XP, has worked some pretty good DX on 40 meter CW in recent days, including Kuwait and several stations in the Far East, and a lot of VK/ZL. The DX here is improving on 40 meters.

    "Sixty meters is still not available here, and all of us here are holding our breath, waiting for a response from the FCC on the League's petition for rulemaking. If it happens for the States, it would be terrific news for us - another piece of terrific ammunition in our fight to get access to 60 meters here. There are still no Central American countries that allow access to 60 meters yet. And I can't see a good reason why not - there is almost no local commercial or government activity in that portion of the spectrum here.

    "Eighty meters is seeing an improvement, especially in DX as the solar activity declines. My good friend in Panamá, Jay, HP3AK, is working Japan on most morning greylines, and often getting quite good reports. VK/ZL is being worked more frequently, too - often several times per week. And nighttime Old World DX is more frequently heard now than it was just a year ago. Several of my local friends report working Europe with modest 80-meter installations. Signal levels from the States' 75m evening ragchews have been noticeably stronger than in the past, too. Nighttime D-layer hasn't responded as much to the rising cosmic ray flux as I would have expected by now.

    "Noise levels on 160 meters have been low enough this winter that some of the locals are getting more interested in top band. TI7XP has a new skywire loop up for that band, and has worked some good DX on it. But the summer noise season is just about here, and I don't expect the interest will last long.

    "And finally, I am pleased to report that I have copied four experimental beacons on 630 meters from the States, and have sent the corresponding WSPR decodes to the operators, who were delighted for the reports from here. Most nights, when noise levels aren't particularly high, I can hear at least one or two, with just a G5RV at 50 feet and an ordinary IC7200 transceiver tuned to the appropriate frequency. I've enjoyed enough success to demonstrate that QSOs with Central America from the States should be possible with modest stations on that band. I have checked the 2190 band, but so far, I haven't copied anything yet."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for March 23 through 29, 2017 were 12, 12, 11, 20, 49, 51, and 53, with a mean of 29.7. 10.7 cm flux was 72, 72.3, 74, 77.2, 82.8, 83.7, and 83.3, with a mean of 77.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 6, 4, 4, 54, 28, and 21, with a mean of 18.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 7, 3, 3, 34, 22, and 17, with a mean of 13.6.


    [1] http://bit.ly/2obVYcb
    [2] https://phys.org/news/2017-03-igniting-solar-flare-corona-lower-atmosphere.html
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 7 18:11:10 2017
    04/07/2017

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux made a strong comeback over the past week, March 30 to April 5.

    Average daily solar flux was 96.5 (compared to 77.9 the previous seven days, and 71.2 over the week before that, March 16-22).

    Average daily sunspot number progressed from 3.4 to 29.7 to 65.9 over the same three weeks.

    The latest daily forecast for Planetary A index and solar flux from NOAA and USAF (updated daily at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[1] ) shows solar flux at 76 on April 7, 70 April 8-13, 75 on April 14, 78 on April 15-16, 85 on April 17-19, 72 on April 20-23, 88 on April 24-27, 85 on April 28-29, 105 on April 30, then 100, 97, 92, 85, and 80 on May 1-5, 75 on May 6-7, 78 on May 8-9, 75 on May 10-11, 78 on May 12-13, 85 on May 14-16, and 92 on May 17-20.

    The same forecast, but for planetary A index, shows 8 on April 7-8, then 5, 8, and 10 April 9-11, 8 on April 12-13, 5 on April 14-16, then 20, 18 and 10 on April 17-19, 5 on April 20-22, then 55, 28, 20, 22, and 28 on April 23-27, then 15, 10, 8, 7 and 6 on April 28 through May 2, 5 on May 3-13, 20, 18, and 10 on May 14-16, 5 from May 17-19, then 55 and 28 on May 20-21.

    At this link - http://bit.ly/2o5Ts6g[2] - you'll find a nice image from a few days back of sunspot AR2644 and 2645. Also check http://bit.ly/2nNpeCC[3] .

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent us this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 7-May 2, 2017.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on April 9-10, 14-16, 20, 30
    Mostly quiet on April 8, 11, 19, 21, 29, May 2
    Quiet to unsettled April 12-13, May 1
    Quiet to active on April 7, 22, 24-28
    Active to disturbed on April 17-18, 23

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on April (7-8,) 11-13. (15,) 16-19, 24-27

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

    Thanks to David Moore (long time contributor to this bulletin) for this, on fast magnetic reconnection: http://bit.ly/2nkGwe8[4]

    Max White, a British ham, sent this: https://go.nasa.gov/2nqXBiy[5]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending e-mail distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for March 30 through April 5, 2017 were 33, 65, 79, 75, 97, 75, and 37, with a mean of 65.9. 10.7 cm flux was 85.9, 90.6, 101, 112, 107.9, 93.8, and 84.6, with a mean of 96.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 28, 16, 8, 4, 20, and 10, with a mean of 15.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 18, 21, 15, 6, 4, 17, and 10, with a mean of 13.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [2] http://bit.ly/2o5Ts6g
    [3] http://bit.ly/2nNpeCC
    [4] http://bit.ly/2nkGwe8
    [5] https://go.nasa.gov/2nqXBiy
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 14 17:37:20 2017
    04/14/2017

    Solar indicators, both sunspot numbers and solar flux, both dropped this week, in fact on April 8 there were no sunspots. Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 65.9 to 16.6, and average daily solar flux went from 96.5 to 73.8, compared to the previous seven days, .

    Average daily planetary A index went from 15.6 to 10.6, and average daily mid-latitude A index declined from 13 to 9.3.

    Predicted solar flux shows 75 on April 14-15, 85 on April 16-17, 80 on April 18, 95 on April 19-21, 92 on April 22-23, 90 on April 24-29, 80 on April 30, 78 on May 1-2, 72 on May 3-4, 75 on May 5-6, 72 on May 7-12, 75 and 85 on May 13-14, 88 on May 15-16, 95 on May 17-18, 92 on May 19-20, and 90 on May 21-26.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 10 and 8 on April 14-16, 25 on April 17-18, 12 and 8 on April 19-20, 5 on April 21-22, then 55, 28, 20 and 22 on April 23-26, then 28, 15, 8 and 5 on April 27-30, then 20, 10, 8 and 10 on May 1-4, 15 on May 5-6, 12 on May 7, 8 on May 8-10, 5 on May 11-13, then 20, 18 and 10 on May 14-16, 5 on May 17-19, then 55, 28, 20, 22, 28, 15 and 8 on May 20-26.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, sent us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 14 to May 9, 2017.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on April 16, 20-22, 30, May 5, 9-10
    Mostly quiet on April 14-15, 21, May 3-4, 6
    Quiet to unsettled April 19, 29, May 1, 2, 7, 8
    Quiet to active on April 23, 25-28
    Active to disturbed on April 17-18, 24

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on April (15,) 16-19, 24-27

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.


    Tamitha Skov's latest video concerning space weather: http://bit.ly/2pwQIwu[1]

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI, wrote on April 7: "The high solar flux number for Wednesday, April 5 (around 95) didn't seem to translate into good propagation. I was out in my kayak trying to qualify an island in Northern California for US Islands on the Air, running my usual 10 W into an end-fed half-wave wire vertical (won't even get into how I can set that up while operating from kayak!).

    "As usual, I started operating on 17-meter SSB. One contact told me I was the only signal he was hearing on the entire band. I only obtained 3 contacts on 17 meters (SSB/CW), then went down and tried 20 meters. I could hear Europe and South America coming in on SSB, but from my little pistol setup, I only found 3 more contacts before I rolled up the rug and went off the air. But it's encouraging that the solar flux is often predicted to be running considerably higher for the next 30 days or so."


    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for April 6 through 12, 2017 were 38, 27, 0, 13, 13, 12, and 13, with a mean of 16.6. 10.7 cm flux was 75.7, 73.9, 73.1, 74.4, 73.6, 74.6, and 71.4, with a mean of 73.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 10, 16, 18, 5, 12, and 6, with a mean of 10.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 9, 14, 16, 5, 10, and 6, with a mean of 9.3.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2pwQIwu
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 21 17:55:06 2017
    04/21/2017

    This just in from the Australian Space Forecast Centre at 2349 UTC on April 20, 2017:

    Recurrent coronal hole is expected to be geoeffective.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
    DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
    FOR 23 APRIL 2017

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
    23 Apr:  Active to Minor Storm


    Spaceweather.com[1] reported old sunspot AR2644 returned after a 2-week trip around the Sun, and exploded on April 18. The resulting CME should miss Earth, but as this active region moves into a geo-effective position we could see some geomagnetic disturbance in the next few days.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 16.6 last week to 8.6 in this reporting week, April 13-19. Average daily solar flux increased from 73.8 to 76.5.

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower this week. Average planetary A index declined from 10.6 to 8, while average mid-latitude A index was 6.3, down from 9.3 the previous seven days.

    Predicted solar flux is 85 on April 21-27, 80 on April 28 to May 1, 75 on May 2-13, 83 and 88 on May 14-15, 90 on May 16-18, 85 on May 19-24, 80 on May 25-28, and 75 on May 29 through June 4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8, 40 and 30 on April 21-24, 20 on April 25-27, then 15, 10, 5 and 20 on April 28 through May 1, 10 on May 2-4, 15 on May 5-6, then 5 and 8 on May 7-8, 5 on May 9-13, 20 on May 14, 15 on May 15-16, 10 on May 17, 5 on May 18-19, then 35, 25, 18, 20 and 25 on May 20-24, then 12, 8, 5 and 18 on May 25-28, and 10 on May 29 through June 4.

    Frantisek K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 21-May 17, 2017. 2017 marks the 40th year Franz has been writing these bulletins.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on April 22, 30, May 13
    Mostly quiet on April 29, May 8
    Quiet to unsettled April 21, May 3, 7, 10-12, 14-15
    Quiet to active on April 24-25, 27-28, May 1-2, 4-5, 8, 16
    Active to disturbed on April 23, 26, May 6, 17

    Increasing solar wind from coronal holes are expected on April (21-22,) 23-28, May (1-4,) 7-8, (9-11,) and 18-19.

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.

    And from another Czech resource, a near term geo-forecast from Thomas Bayer of the Budkov Observatory:

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 21-April 27, 2017

    Quiet: Apr 21-22
    Unsettled: Apr 22-23, 25-27
    Active:   Apr 23-25
    Minor storm: possible Apr 23-24
    Major storm: 0
    Severe storm: 0

    Geomagnetic activity summary:

    Until the nearest Saturday, April 22, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions. Between Sunday, April 23, and Monday, April 24, we expect active episode arrival caused by present equatorial coronal hole. During these two days, storming effect is possible.

    The following days, we expect at most unsettled conditions only with isolated active episodes. The last day of the forecast period, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled level.

    Tomas Bayer
    RWC Prague
    Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
    Department of Geomagnetism
    Budkov observatory (BDV)
     

    According to this, we are due for more low solar activity, but there is a chance of C-class and M-class flares: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=50058[2]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for April 13 through 19, 2017 were 12, 11, 11, 0, 0, 12, and 14, with a mean of 8.6. 10.7 cm flux was 73.5, 72.9, 73, 74.5, 75.2, 85.6, and 80.9, with a mean of 76.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 14, 7, 4, 4, 7, and 15, with a mean of 8. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 10, 5, 4, 3, 6, and 12, with a mean of 6.3.


    [1] http://www.Spaceweather.com
    [2] http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=50058
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 28 15:57:44 2017
    04/28/2017

    Each of the average solar and geomagnetic indices rose last week (April 20-26) over the previous seven days.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 8.6 to 35.7, and solar flux rose from 76.5 to 81.4.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 8 to 26.4, and average daily mid-latitude A index from 6.3 to 18.4.

    The day with the most geomagnetic activity was April 22 when the planetary A index was 54. One the same date, Alaska's College A index (near Fairbanks) was 86.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 5 on April 28-30, then 14, 10, 8 and 10 on May 1-4, 15 on May 5-6, 8 on May 7-8, 5 on May 9-14, 8 and 15 on May 15-16, and then into a more active period at 30, 25, 45, 50 and 30 on May 17-21. Then 20 on May 22-24, then 15, 8, 5 and 20 on May 25-28, 10 on May 29-31, 15 on June 1-2, 8 on June 3-4, and 5 on June 5-9.

    Predicted solar flux values are 79 on April 28-29, 78 on April 30 and May 1, 77 on May 2-4, 75 on May 5-14, 80 on May 15-18, 85 on May 19-24, 80 on May 25-28 and 75 on May 29 to June 10.

    OK1HH sent us this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 28 til May 24, 2017.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on May 9-10, 12-13
    Mostly quiet on April 30, May 7
    Quiet to unsettled April 29, May 2, 4, 14, 21-24
    Quiet to active on April 28, May 1, 3, 8, 11, 15-16, 19
    Active to disturbed on May (5-6,) 17-18, 20

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on April 28, May (1-5,) 6-8, (9-11,) 18-22

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.

    I thought I ran this last week, but apparently not: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JR7D9zTygao[1]

    These always seem to come out after the bulletin is posted.

    You might want to check this for more up to date videos from Tamitha Skov: https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx/videos[2]

    Thanks to Don, N5DM for that tip.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for April 20 through 26, 2017 were 26, 39, 29, 43, 41, 36, and 36, with a mean of 35.7. 10.7 cm flux was 80.7, 82.2, 83.6, 82.5, 80.2, 81.3, and 79.6, with a mean of 81.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 30, 19, 54, 41, 20, 12, and 9, with a mean of 26.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 20, 11, 37, 24, 19, 10, and 8, with a mean of 18.4.


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JR7D9zTygao
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx/videos
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 5 19:59:56 2017
    05/05/2017

    Each of the weekly solar and geomagnetic indicators that we track were lower this week. Average daily sunspot number dropped 10.6 points to 25.1, and average daily solar flux was 4.5 points lower than the previous week at 76.9.

    It is comforting to see though that we have not witnessed a day with zero sunspots since April 17. Average planetary and mid-latitude A index were both 5.6, down from the previous week which had planetary A index at 26.4 and mid-latitude at 18.4.

    The A index is expected to remain quiet until May 17-20.

    As of Thursday night, May 4 the predicted solar flux is 76 on May 5-8, 74 on May 9-12, 75 on May 13-14, 80 on May 15-18, 85 on May 19-21, 80 on May 22-23, 77 on May 24-27, 75 on May 28-30, 73 on May 31 through June 8, 75 on June 9-10, 80 on June 11-14, 85 on June 15-16, and 88 on June 17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 8 on May 5-6, 5 on May 7-9, then 8, 5, 8, 8, 5, and 8 on May 10-15, then 15, 30 and 25 on May 16-18, then 45, 50, 15, 10 and 8 on May 19-23, then 5 on May 24-27, then 12 and 8 on May 28-29, 5 on May 30 through June 1, 8 on June 2-4, and 5 on June 5-10, then 8, 15, 30, 25, 45 and 50 on June 11-16.

    Also related to planetary A index is the OK1HH bulletin from the Czech Propagation Interest Group:

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on May 10, 14-15,
    Mostly quiet on May 9, 13, 16, 25-30
    Quiet to unsettled May 5-6, 22-24, 31
    Quiet to active on May 7-8, 11-12, 19-21
    Active to disturbed on May 17-18

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on May (5-9,) 16-19, (20)

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.

    Remember, you can get a new and revised 45-day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index daily, usually after 2100 UTC from NOAA
    at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[1] .

    Dr. Skov released a new space weather video commentary
    yesterday: http://bit.ly/2pdyRv7[2]

    Bob Kile, W7RH, of Las Vegas, Nevada noticed a nice sporadic-E six meter opening on May 3: "Spring is here and so was the first Sporadic E propagation on 6 meters for the season. There were openings from the southwest to mid-west on May 2 and 3. I happened to be listening on May 3 when the band opened at about 00:00 UTC to the mid-west. Beacons were copied in Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas. I could not hear the guys in California but a few in southern Arizona could be heard at times.

    "Stations worked were in West Texas, Wyoming, Idaho and Colorado. Of special note, two stations in Cheyenne, Wyoming, WY7HR and WY7KY, were solid copy for several hours when the band finally closed about 0200 UTC."

    Bob is using a 3-element Yagi antenna on for 6 meters mounted low on his patio. But I think more interesting is his HF remote base station literally in the middle of nowhere in the Northern Arizona desert, a good distance northeast of Seligman, and approximately 240 miles from Bob's home in Las Vegas. You can check his QRZ.com listing or http://w7rh.net/[3] for a deeper rundown.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins.[9]

    Sunspot numbers for April 27 through May 3, 2017 were 23, 35, 34, 33, 11, 25, and 15, with a mean of 25.1. 10.7 cm flux was 78.2, 78, 77, 77.4, 75.3, 77.2, and 74.9, with a mean of 76.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 10, 6, 6, 6, 5, 4, and 2, with a mean of 5.6.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [2] http://bit.ly/2pdyRv7
    [3] http://w7rh.net/
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 12 21:01:57 2017
    05/12/2017

    Average daily sunspot numbers this week (May 4-10) were 17.1, down from 25.1 last week. Average daily solar flux declined from 76.9 to 71.5.

    There were three consecutive days with zero sunspots this week, May 9-11. Spaceweather.com noted that Thursday was the thirty-third day with zero sunspots in 2017, and through all of 2016 there were 32 days with no sunspots. Being early May, this indicates an acceleration of the decline of the current solar cycle.

    Predicted solar flux is 71 on May 12-13, 70 on May 14-17, 80 on May 18-23, 77 on May 24-27, 75 on May 28 through June 1, 73 on June 2, 72 on June 3-4, 70 on June 5-8, 72 on June 9-10, 75 on June 11, and 80 on June 12-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 6 on May 12, 5 on May 13-16, 15 on May 17-18, then 8, 15, 30, 20, 10 and 8 on May 19-24, 5 on May 25 through June 3, 8 on June 4, 5 on June 5-7, then 8, 5, 5 and 8 on June 8-11, then 15, 30, 15 and 8 on June 12-15.

    Both above Ap and 10.7 cm SF forecasts are from Wednesday May 10. As of 1430 UTC Friday the Thursday May 11 forecast (normally out after 2100 UTC daily) was still unavailable.

    You can check ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[1] for daily updates of predicted Ap (planetary A index) and solar flux predictions.

    OK1HH gives us his geomagnetic activity forecast for May 12-June 7, 2017.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on May 14-15, June 1,
    Mostly quiet on May 13, June 4
    Quiet to unsettled May 12, 23-30, June 3, 5-7
    Quiet to active on May 16, 20, 21-22, June 2
    Active to disturbed on May (17-19, 31)

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected May 16-19 (and maybe about May 29-30 and June 3, 6, 7-8)

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or
    lower reliability of prediction.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH
    Czech Propagation Interested Group
    OK1HH compiling weekly forecasts since 1978.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for May 4 through May 10, 2017 were 29, 31, 26, 23, 11, 0, and 0, with a mean of 17.1. 10.7 cm flux was 74.2, 73.5, 72.8, 71.7, 70.5, 68.9, and 68.6, with a mean of 71.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 5, 8, 6, 6, and 6, with a mean of 6.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 5, 5, 7, 7, 5, and 6, with a mean of 5.9.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 19 14:03:32 2017
    05/19/2017

    The Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning at 0301 UTC on May 19:

    "Geomagnetic conditions may rise to minor storm levels late on 19 May. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain enhanced to active to minor storm levels with some major storm periods on 20 May. Mostly unsettled to active levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 21 May with the possibility of some minor storm periods on this day.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 19-21 MAY 2017.

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
    19 May:  Quiet to unsettled during first half, and active to minor storm during second half of the day
    20 May:  Active to minor storm, some major storm periods possible
    21 May:  Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible"

    We saw seven consecutive days with zero sunspots recently on May 9-15. This overlapped the recent reporting week (May 11-17) with the previous week. The spotless period ended on May 16 when two sunspot groups appeared, 2656 and 2657, with sunspot numbers of 11 and 13 on May 16-17.

    Average daily sunspot numbers reported in last week's bulletin were 17.1, and the average in the current reporting week was only 3.4. This is because last week's report covered two consecutive days with zero sunspots, this week covered five days with no activity.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 71.5 to 70.5, the average estimated daily planetary A index rose from 6.3 to 8.3, while the mid-latitude A index rose from 5.9 to 9.4.

    Predicted solar flux (from Thursday's NOAA and USAF 45-day forecast) is 72 on May 19-21, 74 on May 22-25, 76 on May 26-29, 74 on May 30 thru June 3, 72 on June 4, 70 on June 5-10, 72 on June 11-12, 74 on June 13-17, 76 on June 18-25, and 74 on June 26-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 45, 30, 20 and 12 on May 19-22, 8 on May 23-24, 5 on May 25 thru June 3, 8 on June 4, 5 on June 5-9, then 8, 12, 22, 32 and 20 on June 10-14, then 48, 36, 20, 12 and 8 on June 15-19, and 5 on June 20 thru the end of the month.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 19-June 14, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on June 1, 8
    Mostly quiet on May 29, June 4, 9, 12
    Quiet to unsettled May 23-28, June 5-6, 10
    Quiet to active on May 21-22, June 3, 7, 11, 13
    Active to disturbed on May 19 (- 20, 30-31,) June 2, 14

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on May 19 (20-21, 31,) June (5-6,) 9 (- 14)

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[1]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[2].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[3]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[4].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[5].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins.[6]

    Sunspot numbers for May 11 through 17, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, and 13, with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 69.1, 68.9, 70.4, 71.2, 70.6, 71.9, and 71.4, with a mean of 70.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 4, 10, 14, 9, and 8, with a mean of 8.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 6, 5, 11, 17, 10, and 9, with a mean of 9.4.

     


    [1] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [2] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [3] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 26 16:15:30 2017
    05/26/2017

    At 2344 UTC on May 23, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning for May 26-27. On May 26, they predict a minor to major storm warning and on May 27 a minor storm. These are due to a "partial halo coronal mass ejection."

    Dr. Skov has a new space weather video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlTZTcplsQU[1]

    Average daily sunspot number for the reporting week (May 18-24) increased from 3.4 to 31.7. The previous week had five days of zero sunspots. There were no zero sunspot days this week, so the average daily sunspot number is much higher.

    Over the same two weeks, average daily solar flux rose from 70.5 to 74.1.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 8.3 to 11 and average mid-latitude A index rose from 9.4 to 11.7.

    Predicted solar flux is 78 on May 26-28, 75 on May 29 to June 1, 72 on June 2-3, 70 on June 4-8, 72 on June 9-11, 74 on June 12-18, 76 on June 19-23, 74 on June 24-25 (Field Day weekend), 72 on June 26-30, then 70 on July 1-5 and 72 on July 6-8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on May 26, 20 on May 27, 10 and 8 on May 28-29, 5 on May 30 to June 9, 10 and 12 on June 10-11, 5 on June 12-13, then 8, 10 and 20 on June 14-16, 12 on June 17-18, 8 on June 19, 5 on June 20 to July 6 and 8 on July 7-8.

    ARRL Field Day is only four weeks away! We get 45-day predictions for solar flux and planetary A index, and the prediction for Field Day weekend (June 24-25) looks good. On June 23-25 (including the previous Friday) predicted planetary A index is 5 (good) and solar flux is 76 on Friday and 74 on Saturday and Sunday (not bad).

    The 45-day forecast is updated daily, usually after 2100 UTC
    at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[2] .

    Early Thursday, I was attempting to discern the polarity of sunspots
    at http://bit.ly/2qpMUxb[3] and noticed that sunspot groups 12659 and 12660 showed opposite polarity (one had black on the leading edge while the other had black on the trailing edge). Thinking that one of these may be from Solar Cycle 24, while the other may be from Cycle 25, I sent a message to Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, for a sanity check.

    Carl pointed out they are both from Cycle 24, and the opposite polarity is due to one being in the northern hemisphere and the other in the southern hemisphere. I had forgotten about sunspot groups in opposite hemispheres should have opposite polarity.

    Carl also wrote, "If either was from Cycle 25, it would be at a higher latitude (above 20 degrees or so). And it would be of opposite polarity as regions in the same hemisphere."


    F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent this:

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 26-June 21, 2017

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on June 10,
    Mostly quiet on May 31, June 11,
    Quiet to unsettled May 26-27, 30, June 3, 6-8, 14, 19
    Quiet to active on May 28-29, June 4-5, 15, 20
    Active to disturbed on June (1-2, 9,) 12-13, 16-18

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on May (30,) June (5-6,) 12-14, 16-18

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

    This weekend is the CW portion of the CQ World-Wide WPX contest, from 0000 UTC Saturday, May 27 to 2359 UTC Sunday, May 28. You may operate no more than 36 of the 48 hours. Note 0000 UTC Saturday is 5:00 PM Friday, here on the West Coast. See http://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm[4] for rules.

    Thanks to several readers (including most recently, Russ Ward, W4NI) who tipped us about using 3D numerical models to predict eruptive solar events: http://bit.ly/2qpykFS[5].

    Here is the homepage for Etienne Pariat, one of the researchers: http://bit.ly/2r2211C[6]

    On Thursday evening, West Coast time I noticed on DXmaps.com sporadic-E openings on 10 meters all over the Western USA, and more extensively, 6 meters, from the Midwest to the West and West Coast.

    Interesting research on variations in sunspot counts in flaring and non-flaring active regions. Note that all the references to ARs in this article refer to Active Regions. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09065.pdf[7]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for May 18 through 24, 2017 were 24, 24, 22, 35, 55, 47, and 15, with a mean of 31.7. 10.7 cm flux was 72.2, 72.3, 72.4, 73.5, 74.4, 76, and 77.9, with a mean of 74.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 24, 9, 10, 8, and 4, with a mean of 11. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 15, 13, 23, 10, 9, 8, and 4, with a mean of 11.7.


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlTZTcplsQU
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [3] http://bit.ly/2qpMUxb
    [4] http://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm
    [5] http://bit.ly/2qpykFS
    [6] http://bit.ly/2r2211C
    [7] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09065.pdf
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 2 19:39:20 2017
    06/02/2017

    At 2336 UTC on June 1, the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning for June 2.

    "The solar wind is expected to be influenced by a High-Speed Solar Wind Stream over the next 1 or 2 days. The source of this stream is a small coronal hole centered over the equator. Geomagnetic activity may reach active levels." June 2 geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active.

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjzyWDhTHlU[1]

    Average daily sunspot number for the recent reporting week (May 25-31) was down from 31.7 to 15.6, compared to the previous seven days. There were no sunspots on Tuesday, May 30, but on May 31 sunspot region 2661 appeared, and the sunspot number was 11, the lowest non-zero sunspot number possible, due to the arcane method for counting sunspots. 10 is assigned for every sunspot group, and 1 for each spot within that group. So, a sunspot number of 11 means there was one sunspot region or group, with only one sunspot.

    At 0112 UTC on June 2, SpaceWeather.com[2] issued this alert regarding sunspot 2661: "ACTIVE SUNSPOT: On June 1st, a small but surprisingly active sunspot rotated over the sun's eastern limb. In less than 24 hours, it has unleashed nearly a dozen C-class solar flares and hurled a pair of CMEs into space--an impressive display of fireworks. So far, none of the explosions have targeted Earth, but this could change in the days ahead as the active region rotates toward our planet. Visit Spaceweather.com for more information and updates."

    On June 1 the sunspot number rose from 11 to 18, which means the number of sunspots increased from 1 to 8. The total area of the sunspots doubled over those two days.

    Average daily solar flux increased from 74.1 to 77.2.

    Average planetary A index increased from 11 to 13.3, and average mid-latitude A index went from 11.7 to 10.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 77 on June 2-3, 78 on June 4-8, 75 on June 9-10, 78 on June 11, 80 on June 12-21, 75 on June 22-23, 72, 78 and 72 on June 24-26, 70 on June 27 through July 5, 75 on July 6-7, 78 on July 8 and 80 on July 9-16.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15, and 8 on June 2-4, 5 on June 5-9, 10 and 12 on June 10-11, 8 on June 12-13, then 10, 12, 25 and 10 on June 14-17, 8 on June 18-19, 5 on June 20-24, 12 on June 25, 5 on June 26 to July 6, then 10 and 12 on July 7-8, 8 on July 9-10, then 10, 12, 25, and 10 on July 11-14 and 8 on July 15-16.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 2-28, 2017

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on June 2, 7, 9, 20-21, 27-28
    Mostly quiet on June 17, 19
    Quiet to unsettled June 5-6, 14, 18, 22, 26
    Quiet to active on June 3-4, 8, 10, 12-13, 23, 25
    Active to disturbed on June 11, (15), 16, 24

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on June (3, 5-6,) 12-19, 26-27

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.

    Note: as I will be sailing along the Bata channel next week, the next geomagnetic activity forecast will be issued up to the second week, i.e. on June 15.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH"

    The latest forecast from USAF Space Weather Squadron for ARRL Field Day weekend (June 24-25) has solar flux on June 23-25 at 75, 72 and 78 and predicted planetary A index at 5, 5, and 12.

    Both the planetary A index forecast and solar flux prediction for Field Day weekend has not changed since May 29.

    On Sunday, May 28 during the CW weekend of the CQ World Wide WPX contest there was a large geomagnetic disturbance. Planetary A index was 51, and the High Latitude College A index (Fairbanks, Alaska) was 84. Those are both huge numbers.

    I received two reports of enhanced 10, 15, and 20-meter propagation on Sunday. The first was from Ken Miller, K6CTW, of Rancho Cucamonga, California:

    "Had an interesting experience last night during the CQ WPX CW contest. Fifteen and 20 meters appeared to be wide open (according to the spotting sites) between 0440 and 0540 UTC during a major geomagnetic storm. Normally, when spots appear at times or during conditions that do not favor simple antennas and low power, it has not been worth it to even check it out. However, I did turn on the rig and was able to work Indonesia (YE1K), New Zealand (ZM1A), Japan (JF3BFS), and the Marianas Islands/Tinian (NH0J) with only the 40 watts to a window-line fed inverted V. I'll bet lots of others had the same wonderful experience.

    "It would be great to find out how this happened because isn't it a given that major geomagnetic storms totally disrupt the higher bands?"

    I decided to run this by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. His response:

    "This is an excellent example of how we take a very complicated process (the effect of a geomagnetic storm on the ionosphere) and try to simplify it with one general statement.

    "Ken's observations during CQ WPX CW on 15 and 20-meters simply tell us that this statement isn't 100% true. Yes, in general, the high latitude F2 region is adversely affected by elevated K indices, but the low latitude F2 region can be enhanced. And the mid latitude F2 region could be anywhere in between depending on where we are in the geomagnetic storm. His paths to YB, ZL and KH0 are relatively low/mid latitude paths from his California home, and suggest what happened was an enhancement (or at least no change) for a short period. The JA contact gets to the highest latitude (about 50 degrees north geographic), but apparently it wasn't affected too much for some of the time.

    "Here is a prediction from SWPC's STORM model (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/product s/storm-time-empirical-ionospheric-correction[3]) for August 5 and 6 of 2011 based on the geomagnetic storm at that time. [Unfortunately that attachment is an image that K9LA saved back in 2011 from that same URL, and is not available there or anywhere else. If you want a copy, email me at k7ra@arrl.net[4] with the subject "K9LA attachment from ARLP022" -K7RA] This model integrates the last eleven Kp indices (the last eleven a-sub-p indices, which are the linear equivalents of the Kp index) to predict what the F2 region is doing compared to the quiet F2 region. Note that all latitudes of the northern hemisphere and the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere were predicted to be adversely impacted, while the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere were predicted to be kind of a wash and the low latitudes of the southern hemisphere were predicted to be somewhat enhanced. Ionosonde data generally confirms this, but even the STORM model may not capture the very short-term dynamics of the entire real-world ionosphere.

    "The bottom line is a major geomagnetic storm doesn't necessarily totally disrupt the higher bands throughout the entire worldwide ionosphere. Two corollaries are that a single K index (as used by W6ELProp and ICEPAC) is inadequate to explain the entire real-world ionosphere under disturbed conditions, and even using the STORM model may not predict the short-term changes.

    "These short-term events are why we don't have a daily model of even the quiet ionosphere - our understanding is statistical in nature over a month's time frame."

    Tim Goeppinger, N6GP of Tustin, California sent this note concerning this very same event:

    "The West Coast had an interesting opening to Japan and Guam on 10 meters around 0400z on May 28 during the CQ WPX Contest. I recorded some audio and made this YouTube video about these unusual conditions."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8Q4iJRfGT4[5]

    Carl, K9LA also commented on Tim's report:

    "That 10-meter opening in your other e-mail looks like it was about the same time as Ken's observations on 20 and 15-meter. Always keep your ears open during a geomagnetic storm - you may be surprised. Right now we're off to Seaside, Oregon for SeaPac. I'll probably take a closer look at the 10-meter comments after we get back."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for May 25 through 31, 2017 were 19, 22, 21, 20, 16, 0, and 11, with a mean of 15.6. 10.7 cm flux was 76.1, 80.2, 81.9, 78.8, 75.8, 73.7, and 74.1, with a mean of 77.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 14, 51, 10, 7, and 4, with a mean of 13.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 3, 14, 32, 10, 6, and 5, with a mean of 10.6.

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjzyWDhTHlU
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/storm-time-empirical-ionospheric-correction
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8Q4iJRfGT4
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 9 21:07:26 2017
    06/09/2017

    The big event this week was multiple sporadic-E linkups on 6 meters yesterday (June 8).

    The average daily sunspot number rose this week from 15.6 to 19.3. This was largely due to the fact that there was one zero-sunspot day last week, and no days with zero sunspots this week.

    The average daily A index, planetary and mid-latitude were both 5.6 this week. Last week they were 13.3 and 10.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 72 on June 9-10, 75 on June 11-13, 72 on June 14-15, 78 on June 16-26, 80 on June 27 to July 1, 78 on July 2-8, 80 on July 9, and 78 on July 10-23.

    Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on June 9-11, 8 on June 12-13, 5, 12, 25 and 10 on June 14-17, 8 on June 18-19, 5 on June 20 to July 10, then 10, 12, 25 and 10 on July 11-14, 8 on July 15-16, and 5 on July 17-23.

    Field Day weekend, June 24-25, shows a changed prediction for June 23-25 with a solar flux at 78, and planetary A index of 5 on all three days. This is improved from last week's forecast in ARLP022 which projected a higher geomagnetic (A index) forecast and lower solar flux.

    Our usual Czech source for geomagnetic forecasts is away this week, so here is another Czech resource with predictions for only the next week:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 9-June 15, 2017

    Quiet: Jun 9-12, 14-15
    Unsettled:   Jun 13-14
    Active:      Jun 14-15
    Minor storm: possible Jun 15
    Major storm: 0
    Severe storm: 0

    Geomagnetic activity summary:

    Except the last days, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions til the next week. From June 13-14 the unsettled conditions may be more frequent but the general activity forecast should remain at the quiet to unsettled level.

    Because the last flare occurred at the central part of solar disk, we expect an active episode at the end of the forecast period. About June 15, active conditions can also reach minor storm level.

    Tomas Bayer
    RWC Prague
    Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
    Department of Geomagnetism
    Budkov observatory (BDV)"

    Bruce Smith, AC4G, of Taft, Tennessee wrote: "Just wanted to inform your readers that on 7 June, at approximately 2100z, I heard PA2M (Netherlands) calling CQ into my area EM65, southern Tennessee. I went down to 50.081 called CQ (CW) and began working many European stations. When the bands finally faded after about 2 hours, I ended up making QSOs with 18 European stations such as PA, G, GM, and GD (were the main areas worked)."

    Jim Wilson, K5ND, of Grapevine, Texas wrote: "I'm sure you're getting plenty of comments about the recent openings on 6 meters. I've observed daily openings into Europe, but with no luck from Texas. However, this afternoon I was able to work into Japan for the first time ever, running 100 watts with JT65 into a Moxon antenna at 25 feet.

    "I wrote up my experience, along with screen shots, at https://www.k5nd.net/2017/06/six-meters-once-more-magic/[1]."

    According to Rick Lindquist, WW1ME, K5ND is the organizer of the annual Boy Scout Jamboree on the Air. Check out the K5ND bio at QRZ.com, and of course his blog at www.k5nd.blog[2].

    Dick Ferry, K2KA of Westford, Massachusetts wrote: "On June 7, I enjoyed the epic opening on 6 meters. I have never seen the band lit up like that before. I worked 32 NA stations (wasn't hearing EU) and 2 new states (Idaho and Wyoming). All signals were strong. Mid-west was working JA too, so was EU. Wall to wall stations 2230Z to well beyond 2359Z.

    "Today, June 8, the band has been open all morning again, but there does not seem to be as much activity. We'll see how it goes."

     

    Lloyd Rasmussen, W3IUU, wrote: "SWPC.NOAA.GOV[3] does some nice alerts, watches and warnings for ionospheric and flare events above the R1, S1 or G1 levels. I should have saved the report for May; it is in reverse chronological order for a month at a time. Anyway, it showed that the K index went to 5 just after 2200Z on the May 27, as I remember, to 6 after 2300Z, and to 7 at I think around 0430Z.

    "Around 0300Z we had strong signals from the Washington, DC area to several points west on 20, and to the west coast and out to ZL and VK on 15. WWV was very loud on 20 MHz, with some flutter on their signal; but not really audible on 25 MHz. One Texas beacon was still heard on 10 meters; I probably missed a lot of 10-meter action before or after that time.

    "Having heard some of this during severe disturbances in the late 1950s while living in Iowa, I think some of this is auroral E layer propagation, multi-hop in some cases. At least the E layer needs to be factored into the mix."

    George Hall, N2CG, of Saddle Brook, New Jersey wrote: "I'm located in Northern New Jersey, FN20wv, and I knew earlier in the day on June 7 that there was ongoing US East Coast and Midwest 6m openings to Europe by observing the spotting websites on my tablet at work. However, by the time I got home from work at 6 PM EDT (2200Z) the band shifted to single and double hop Es openings over a large part of the US and Canada.

    "A few minutes after 2200Z I turned on my rig and I immediately started hearing the VE4VHF beacon in Winnipeg, MB EN19 on 50.036 MHz with a true 599+ signal report! Shortly after I began tuning around and began hearing several more beacons, all with RST 589 to 599+ signals as follows: W9JN/B 50.062 MHz EN54, N8PUM/B 50.068 MHz EN66, and K0KP/B 50.073 MHz EN36. So, based on the signal strength of these beacons, I knew I was in store for a good 6m band opening but had no idea how long this opening would last!

    "During the course of the next 6-1/2+ hours I worked on CW or SSB mode stations in WA, OR, MT, ID, WI, MN, IL, KS, MO, TN, KY, GA and AL. I most likely would have easily worked more stations but I had to go QRT for over 2 hours and when I got back on the air at 0035Z (08 June) I thought perhaps the "wireworks" would be over ? but that was NOT the case. I was pleasantly surprised to hear the band was still wide open to the Midwest as well as the Pacific Northwest. Around 0130Z I started hearing the N0LL beacon on 50.078 MHz in EM09 and remained coming in to my QTH for over 2 hours with signal strength ranging from RST 559 to 579.

    "I don't work the JT digital modes but I know those ops were also very busy because I monitored their frequencies (50.276 to 50.280 MHz) several times during the opening and I could hear their warbling signal tones indicating much JT digital mode activity.

    "The 2017 Es Season started off very slow for me and I missed the big Es opening to Europe and elsewhere when I was attending the Hamvention in Xenia, Ohio a few weekends ago. This June 7 Es opening sure made up for my slow start of this year's Es Season for me."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2017 were 18, 19, 22, 23, 22, 18, and 13, with a mean of 19.3. 10.7 cm flux was 75.7, 78.2, 77.9, 77.7, 79.4, 75.4, and 75.5 with a mean of 77.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 9, 3, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 5.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 6, 9, 3, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 5.6.

     


    [1] https://www.k5nd.net/2017/06/six-meters-once-more-magic/
    [2] http://www.k5nd.blog
    [3] http://SWPC.NOAA.GOV
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 16 19:34:20 2017
    06/16/2017

    At 2311 UTC on June 14 the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "In the second half of the first UT day (15 June) the solar wind is expected to be influenced by a High Speed Solar Wind Stream. On the second UT day (16 June) the speed can reach 700 km/s. The geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active levels. Isolated minor storm periods are possible on 16 June.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 15-16 JUNE 2017.

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
    15 Jun: Unsettled to Active
    16 Jun: Active"

     

    Also, an update from Dr. Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/z795uEjCxYI[1]

     

    And an older video from Dr. Skov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYC6hzifWu0[2]

     

    We saw four zero sunspot days over the past week, so the average daily sunspot number declined from 19.3 to 4.9 from the previous seven days.

    Average daily solar flux for this reporting week (June 8-14) was 74.4, down from 77.1 the previous seven days. Average daily planetary A index increased from 5.6 to 7.3 and average mid-latitude A index went from 5.6 to 6.9. Yes, that is correct and not a typo; over the previous reporting week (June 1-7), mid-latitude and planetary A index were both 5.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 77 on June 16-23, 72 on June 24, 70 on June 25, 75 on June 26 through July 7, 78 on July 8, then 78, 77, 78, 76 and 74 on July 8-12, 72 on July 13-21, 70 on July 22-23, and 75 on July 24-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 25, 12, 10 and 8 on June 16-19, 5 on June 20 thru July 8, then 15, 12, 8, 15, 25 and 15 on July 9-14, 12 on July 15-16, 5 on July 17-30.

     

    On June 14 Spaceweather.com issued a notification titled "A hole in the sun's atmosphere". It included a nice magnetic image. Check out: http://bit.ly/2t4LESL[3]

    Or go to Spaceweather.com[4] and check for "A Hole in the Sun's atmosphere" and if you don't see it, check the Archives in the upper right corner, and set the date to June 14 or 15. The magnetic image is quite nice and very "granular" as techies often say today.

    "This is a coronal hole (CH), a region where the sun's magnetic field peels back and allows solar wind to escape. A fast-moving stream of solar wind from this coronal hole is expected to arrive on June 16th, possibly sparking G1-class geomagnetic storms. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, especially in the southern hemisphere where autumn darkness favors visibility.

    Forecasters note that this stream is unusually fast with wind speeds as high as 700 km/s. Moreover, it is threaded with "negative polarity" (south-pointing) magnetic fields. Such fields do a good job connecting to Earth's magnetosphere and energizing geomagnetic storms."

      

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote to me on June 14: "There was a nice 6-meter Es opening from Kansas to the Caribbean on June 12. Logged C6ATA and HH2AA until 2300z. I'm also seeing remarkable JT65 contacts spotted such as 9K2GS, VK4MA, VK8MS, E51WL, and SV9CVY to North America on June 13 and 13."




    ARRL Field Day is next weekend, June 24-25. See http://www.arrl.org/field-day[5] for info. The latest forecast for June 23-25 (we include the Friday before Field Day in case of any predicted geomagnetic events on Friday) has changed from last week, with A index at 5 on all three days and solar flux at 77, 72 and 70.

     

    These predictions are updated daily, usually after 2100 UTC at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[6].


    Check this out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g[7]

     

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group, a geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 16-July 11, 2017.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on June 20-22, 27, July 1, 4-5, 7
    Mostly quiet on June 26, 28, July 6
    Quiet to unsettled June 18-19, 26, July 3
    Quiet to active on June 17, 25, 29-30, July 2, 8, 11
    Active to disturbed on June (16, 23-24,) July (9-10)

    "Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on June 16-19 (20, 26-27), July (8,) 9-11.

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

     

    This weekend is the CW portion of the All Asian DX Contest. See http://www.dxcoffee.com/eng/2017/this-weekend-all-asian-cw-contest-4/[8] and http://www.dxzone.com/dx32720/all-asian-dx-contest-.html[9] for details.

     

    Scott Avery, WA6LIE of Salinas, California wrote: "The ARRL VHF contest pretty much fair to poor this year from California here in grid CM96.

    "Conditions were poor at best, so digital modes prevailed. It was hit and miss on 6 meters JT65 as band up and down a lot!

    "I missed about fifty percent due to band conditions. I was trying to encourage the new mode MSK144 for contest and general use, as it is a lot quicker for those short openings I missed working on JT65. I use MSK144 here on 50.280 and we have very regular morning openings to Southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico, among other places.

    "Saying that, keep an eye on the digital modes when conditions are poor. My icing on the cake was working Hawaii on JT65 (KC7I, NH6Y and K2GT)."

      

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10].

    For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12].

    More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[14].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15].

    Sunspot numbers for June 8 through 14, 2017 were 12, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, and 11, with a mean of 4.9. 10.7 cm flux was 74, 73.7, 74.7, 74.3, 75.2, 74.9, and 74.1, with a mean of 74.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 4, 17, 8, 8, and 5, with a mean of 7.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 6, 5, 14, 6, 6, and 6, with a mean of 6.9.



     


    [1] https://youtu.be/z795uEjCxYI
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYC6hzifWu0
    [3] http://bit.ly/2t4LESL
    [4] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/field-day
    [6] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g
    [8] http://www.dxcoffee.com/eng/2017/this-weekend-all-asian-cw-contest-4/
    [9] http://www.dxzone.com/dx32720/all-asian-dx-contest-.html
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 23 18:08:27 2017
    06/23/2017

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose this reporting week (June 15-21) from 4.9 to 29.4. The previous week had four days with no sunspots, and this week there were no zero sunspot days, hence the dramatic increase in the average.

    Average daily solar flux barely budged from 74.4 to 74.6

    Average daily planetary A index went from 7.3 to 9.4, and mid-latitude A index from 6.9 to 8.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 75 on June 23-28, 74 on June 29 through July 4, 75 on July 5-7, 77 on July 8-9, 74 on July 10-14, 75 on July 15-17, then 74, 72 and 74 on July 18-20, 70 on July 21-23, 74 on July 24-31, 75 on August 1-3 and 77 on August 4-5.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on Jun 23-24, then 10 and 8 on June 25-26, 5 on June 27 through July 12, then 20 and 12 on July 13-14, 10 on July 15-16, 5 on July 17-18, 8 on July 19, 12 on July 20-21, then 10 and 8 on July 22-23, then 5 on July 24 through August 6.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 23-July 18, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on June 27, July 4-5
    Mostly quiet on June 28-29, July 1, 3, 7, 17
    Quiet to unsettled June 26, July 2, 6, 12, 18
    Quiet to active on June 25, 30, July 9-11, 15
    Active to disturbed on June (23-24,) July (8,) 13-14, 16

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on June (26-27), July (8,) 9-17, (18).

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH"

    This weekend is ARRL Field Day. Conditions should be good. Earlier forecasts had the planetary A index this weekend at 5, but currently for Saturday and Sunday it is 12 and 10, which is certainly workable. Predicted solar flux is 75 for both days, better than recent predictions for June 24-25.

    Here is a 6 meter report from George Hall, N2CG: "On Father's Day 2017 there was an Es opening from the US East Coast to the Caribbean and Northern South America region that began around 2145Z, according to spots on the DX spotting websites, and it lasted for about two hours.

    "I was returning home (Northern New Jersey, grid FN20wv) after having Father's Day dinner with my wife and arrived around 7 PM EDT/2300Z. Soon after, I got on 6 meters and heard YV50ARV/6 in FJ78 on 50.125 MHz SSB coming in 59+ and soon had him in my log. Over the next 45 minutes I worked the following exchanging 59/599 signal reports both ways: YV5IUA in FK60 on SSB; PV8ADI in FJ92 on CW; KP4JRS in FK68 on CW; WP2B in FK77 on CW; and KP4EIT in FK68 on SSB.

    "Looking at the DX spots being posted during this opening, I counted about 80 percent JT digital mode spots vs 20 percent SSB/CW mode spots. Last year during a typical 6-meter Es opening this was the exact opposite with about 80 percent SSB/CW spots vs 20 percent JT digital mode spots being reported.

    "So it looks like the JT digital modes have made a very strong and dominant role on working 6 meter DX and in such a short period. If the JT digital modes can evolve with faster turnaround times (like what was recently reported on the WSJT-X reflector); then we may see 6-meter DX activity become almost exclusively fast turnaround JT digital modes."

    Interesting article about sunspots, and how they are observed: http://bit.ly/2stLczn[1]

    Dr. Tamitha Skov mentions Field Day: http://bit.ly/2sIwh2L[2]

    Another solar article: http://bit.ly/2tVrlXt[3]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for June 15 through 21, 2017 were 28, 28, 28, 27, 26, 34, and 35, with a mean of 29.4. 10.7 cm flux was 77.4, 73.5, 74.8, 74.9, 73.6, 74.4, and 73.7, with a mean of 74.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 25, 15, 10, 5, 3, and 4, with a mean of 9.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 18, 12, 9, 7, 3, and 3, with a mean of 8.1.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2stLczn
    [2] http://bit.ly/2sIwh2L
    [3] http://bit.ly/2tVrlXt
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 30 19:44:52 2017
    06/30/2017

    A coronal mass ejection (CME) left the sun on June 28th and it is expected to reach Earth on July 2nd. Otherwise, there hasn't been much change in solar activity since last week, but all indicators were lower. Average daily sunspot number moved from 29.4 last week to 20.3 this week, and average daily solar flux went from 74.6 to 73.6.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 9.4 to 6.9, and mid-latitude A index from 8.1 to 7.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 72 on June 30 through July 7, 75 on July 8-14, 76 on July 15-16, 75 on July 17-19, 74 on July 20-22, 72 on July 23-24, 77 on July 25-28, then 74, 73 and 72 on July 29-31, 73 on August 1, 74 on August 2-3, 75 on August 4-10 and 76 on August 11-12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 30 through July 1, then 12, 20 and 10 on July 2-4, 5 on July 5-12, then 20, 12 and 10 on July 13-15, 5 on July 16-20, then 10, 12, 10 and 5 on July 21-24, 10 on July 25-26, 5 on July 27 through August 8, then 20, 12 and 10 on August 9-11 and 5 on August 12-13.

    Tomas Bayer of the Dept. of Geomagnetism at the Budkov Observatory sends this Geomagnetic activity summary:

    "Next week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled level conditions only with a single active episode. The active episodes are possible about June 30 and at the end of forecast period.

    "Geomagnetic activity increase is possible because of a small equatorial coronal hole. Nevertheless, we expect the greater activity increase at the start of the next weekly forecast, i.e. after July 7."

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 30-July 26, 2017.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on July 1, 4-5, 17
    Mostly quiet on July 2, 12, 16, 18-20, 24
    Quiet to unsettled July 6-7, 10-11, 15, 25-26
    Quiet to active on June 30, July 3, 8-9, 14, 21-23
    Active to disturbed on July 13

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on July (8,) 9-17, (18, 21,) 22-24, (25)

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.
    - As a result of ongoing changes to the configuration of active areas
    on the Sun, reliability of forecasts is temporarily lowered."

    Dean Pesnell of NASA says the upcoming solar minimum (over the next few years) will bring longer lasting coronal holes: http://bit.ly/2sn0Duy[1]

    This report from Jeff Hartley, N8II, in West Virginia: "Going back to June 17, I operated in the WV QSO Party and conditions were disturbed, which may have actually improved conditions for me into the States.

    "I worked a total of 892 QSOs with 619 on 20-meter SSB in 8.3 hours between 1600Z and 0200Z, with 49 states (no calls from Alaska, but about 6 from Hawaii!), 11 WV counties, and 14 DXCC countries without looking for EU, which was fairly loud from 1800Z-2300Z.

    "There was excellent sporadic E until about 2400Z, with some still toward the Gulf Coast and Florida after that. Twenty-meter phone featured direct ionospheric propagation at some time to all states except Alaska (maybe), Maryland, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. I was called at one point from Roanoke, Virginia, which is about 165 miles away, and in the first 4 hours I worked many stations in New York and New England. There was apparently no F2 above 20 meters, except to the south on 15 meters, but I did work Puerto Rico on 10-meter double hop Es.

    "The other propagation highlight was working a VK2 in Australia on 20-meter SSB in the 2300Z hour via short path, a first in 47 years of hamming during the Aussie morning; long path QSOs are pretty common around 2100-2300Z, except in our summer. I used my 80-meter dipole in lieu of the 5 element Yagi or tribander fixed south at times on 20 to get more omnidirectional coverage as the skip was short in all directions. Many New York stations were loudest off the back of my triband Force 12 Yagi at 60 feet (signals from high angle).

    "There was good Es from Michigan to Minnesota at around noon on the 18th on 10 meters. The highlight of the week was a multi-hop Es opening to Europe on the 19th, working F5RAG in France first at 2111Z and working Spain, England, and Ireland (tremendous rapid fading from in the noise to S5) until 2127Z when F5RAG said hello again at S7 (best signal). I then worked Northern Ireland an hour later. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday were quiet with little 28 MHz Es, other than a few openings into Texas including 2 Dallas area QSOs on 6 meter at around 1500Z on the 21st.

    "Field Day was spent between home and K8EP in the field, operating from near the foot of a mountain to the west (not the greatest location) near Martinsburg, WV. I can never remember a Field Day when the sporadic E was so widespread in different directions on 15 and 10 meter for such a long duration as it was this year!

    "There was a high noise level at K8EP on 20 meters, which was found to be a noisy computer power supply, but I was very aware of Es to the west on starting around 2230Z and working many Michigan and 9th call area stations, along with Ohio, as the evening progressed, as well as some QSOs into New England. When I returned to home and fired up at 0215Z, I found W3AO on 15 meters (distant local) in Maryland first and Bob, W3IDT, reported some Es, but 'things are slowing down.'

    "Having not worked 15-meter phone, I started a fast-paced run with plenty of callers, but propagation was limited to mostly W5s (TX was rather weak), 9s, and 0s (nothing from Colorado, North Dakota, and South Dakota) and 4s in Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee. I switched to 20 meters around 0300Z and had nearly perfect coverage to my west from the 9th area and beyond and south from South Carolina and Tennessee and beyond, running a big pile up with many west-coast QSOs. Two KL7s in Alaska called in with loud signals! Without the Es, skip would have been very long by 0300Z, so many QSOs may have been Es on the east end into F2 out west.

    "I returned to the air at 1446Z and single hop Es could not have been much better in all directions on 15 and 10 meters through 1720Z! I stayed on 10 until 1613Z working stations as close as New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Ohio, and Kentucky. The band was wide open to New England, but QSO rates into the 9th and 0 call areas with 4s and 5s to boot were much better.

    "I worked Colorado and Arizona on double-hop Es, but no Dakotas. Fifteen meters was even that much better than 10, working stations as close as eastern Pennsylvania (about 150-200 miles away), as well as New Jersey, New York, New England, Ohio, Kentucky, and North Carolina. I was called via double-hop Es from Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and California (many, mostly from San Francisco south), and Washington as well! In 5 hours, total time, I worked 557 QSOs with 272 on 15 meters and 195 on 10 meters.

    "The few times I checked 6M, there was surprisingly not much Es."

    Harry Rudolph, WX8C, of Grand Blanc, Michigan sent this Field Day report: "Operated from southeast Michigan with battery power, running around 75 W to an all-band dipole. Early Sunday afternoon, local time, I made 42 6-meter contacts from New England to Florida, and then along the Gulf Coast and stretching to West Texas. Most stations were loud."

    Rich Zwirko, K1HTV, of Amissville, Virginia sent this 6-meter report: "On June 25th, for the second time in this month, 50 MHz signals from Japan were copied at the FM18ap Virginia home of K1HTV. The first signal heard on June 9th was at 2149Z from JR1LZK. The last Japanese station heard was JA9SJI, 2 hours and 22 minutes later at 00 11Z June 10th!

    "Of the 142 minutes between the start and finish of the UTC June 9/10 opening: - 25 different JA stations were copied during 42 different minutes.
    - The PSKreporter website reported that 7 stations in Japan copied K1HTV.
    - 126 lines of data were received from Japanese stations
    - 2-way QSOs were completed with JH4UYB and JG1TSG.

    "During the UTC June 9/10, 2017 opening, 3 or more JA stations were copied during their one minute transmit periods at:

    UTC  - Number of stations
    2243 - 7
    2247 - 4
    2249 - 5
    2305 - 10
    2307 - 8
    2309 - 6
    2311 - 4
    2313 - 4
    2315 - 8
    2317 - 7
    2319 - 8
    2321 - 5
    2323 - 5
    2325 - 4
    2335 - 5
    2339 - 3

    "The second 50 MHz opening between Japan and the K1HTV occurred on June 25, but was much shorter than the one earlier in the month, lasting only 10 minutes. Again, using the JT65 mode, the first station, JP1LRT, was copied at 2325Z and the last copied, ten minutes later at 2335Z was JA7QVI. Using the JT65 mode, 7 different JA stations were received, JP1LRT, JO1ALS, JK1SQI, JM1IGJ, JE1BMJ, JN1GTG and JA7QVI. I was unable to make any 2-way QSOs during this opening.

    "Earlier in the month on June 12th at 1450Z, I copied a CQ by 4X4DK in Israel on the 50.276 MHz JT65 frequency. But his signals quickly disappeared in a few minutes before a QSO could be made.

    "On June 19, JT65 transmissions from TY2AC in Benin were copied at 1216, 1220 and 1252 UTC. After completing a QSO with another station, Nic copied my call, but lost commercial power and the use of his power amplifier. He came back on the air running only 100 W using a small backup generator, but was too weak to copy here. By the time commercial power was restored, the propagation had changed, so the contact could not be completed.

    "The next day, June 20, was another exciting but frustrating day on the Magic Band. I copied 9K2OD in Kuwait calling CQ at 1324 and 1326 UTC. After a fellow PVRC member, John, K3AJ, worked Osama, I again called. 9K2OD reported on the cluster that he had heard me, but we were unable to complete the 2-way QSO because the propagation had changed and his JT65 signal faded into the noise.

    "I can't wait for the K1JT software development team to complete their work on a new digital mode which can better handle rapidly changing multi-hop propagation that is experienced by 6-meter DXers."

    And finally, a report from Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI, in Costa Rica: "This year's sporadic E season on six meters here in Central America, has been short but spectacular. It began way later than usual, but certainly made up for lost time, with reliable openings into W4, starting around the end of May. By the end of the first week in June, we had been seeing propagation into Europe on an almost daily basis, at least until about a week ago, when the openings have begun to die down, both in frequency and intensity.

    "Phil Phillips, TI5/N5BEK, and I have been taking full advantage of this, with my working two new European countries on 6 meters and his working several more, sometimes working the same stations for several days running. The first European opening of the season this year was a spectacular one, which, of course, happened during my morning nap - when I got up and came into the shack to check the decodes in the activity window on WSJT-X, I astonished and dismayed to discover that I had just missed working both Gibraltar and Slovenia - proof positive that, on 6 meters at least, when you snooze, you can sure lose. Big time.

    "In discussing this during our early morning coffee klatch on 75 meters a few days ago, Phil and I concluded that it's not that the band has been in spectacularly good shape this year, in fact it's probably been poorer than in most recent years. Rather, it's been that the JT65 protocol makes the very weak openings sufficient to establish QSOs where none would have otherwise been possible on SSB or even CW. Contacts into both Belgium and Germany this year with my peanut-whistle station running 60 W into a 5/8 vertical, would not have been possible on SSB, and unlikely even on CW, but when a QSO can be completed at a signal-to-noise ratio of -25dB, much more is possible. JT65 has improved my 6-meter country and states totals rather significantly this year, particularly for Europe. So far, I've had only one SSB contact into Europe this year, but have had an abundance of JT65 contacts. Increased states totals, too, have been made possible with the use of JT65; I've added several new states to my total since getting on JT65 late last year. Even better results will likely happen when the new, faster protocols that Joe Taylor is working on, are finally ready for 6-meter prime time and become widely adopted.

    "MSK144 via Es extension has produced some interesting results here on 6m recently as well. There are very few stations on MSK144 within one-hop range of me as you would expect (in fact, other than Phil, I don't know of any), mostly because the population is so sparse within the one-hop range. So, trying to do meteor scatter within the one-hop range is pretty much a waste of time, and trying to do a coincident double-hop means working against the stubborn laws of probability. I've left the receiver running for a week at a time and have not seen a single decode other than tests and CQs from Phil.

    "But when there is heavy sporadic E activity along the Gulf Coast, the situation can be quite different with decodes of Stateside stations, usually in the Midwest, occurring with regularity, and Phil has managed several contacts with that method, though I have not managed it yet so far. I was the first to see a signal (from NZ8D), and try as we might, we were not able to complete, but Phil was the first to manage a two-way contact via this mode from here.

    "Clearly, what is happening is the meteor burst near us is being extended via another hop with the aid of a sporadic E cloud over the northern Gulf of Mexico. So far as I know, Phil's success with this mode is the first from Central America.

    "The low bands haven't been anything to write home about lately, as one might expect from the rather dismal solar activity. Tuning around the 20-meter band in mid-day has revealed our mid-day blackout, particularly intense in the summer months, to be reduced in intensity compared to recent years - doubtless the result of a lessening of the intensity of the D-layer ionization that causes it.

    "Occasional signals, mostly from South America and Western Europe occasionally hit S9, which is pretty good for our mid-day break, but there simply aren't a lot of them. Frequently I can tune from one end of 20 meters to the other and never hear more than a half dozen signals, and those from the States are typically in the S3-S6 range. What a contrast from my memories of the peak of Cycle 19 as a child, when I could tune across any band and never hear a gap anywhere from one end of the band to the other, on any band I tried. But that was at higher latitudes (southern Idaho). The good news is that this year, the mid-day break has been beginning later and ending earlier than in past years.

    "A quick tune across both 15 and 10 meters as I am writing this at 1230 in the afternoon, failed to reveal a single signal on either band. It's beginning to look like it's 20 meters or nothing these days, particularly at mid-day. A check of 17 meters revealed a single JT9 signal. That was it. Under conditions like this, it's monster beams or forget it. But a bit later in the day, when the D-layer absorption has gone down, the band will open into Europe and signals can become quite strong, even spectacularly so at times. One must be patient. And take one's naps at midday - and hope that 6m doesn't open while you're doing it."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for June 22 through 28, 2017 were 23, 22, 28, 20, 19, 17, and 13, with a mean of 20.3. 10.7 cm flux was 73.7, 73.7, 74.1, 73.7, 73.7, 74.1, and 72.1, with a mean of 73.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 9, 11, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of 6.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 6, 8, 11, 9, 5, and 5, with a mean of 7.4.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2sn0Duy
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sun Jul 9 21:38:40 2017
    07/08/2017 At 0057 UTC on July 7, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: "Expect an increase in geomagnetic activity late on UT day, 08-09 July due to influence of geoeffective coronal hole."

    Our Sun showed no sunspots on July 3-4, so average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 20.3 on June 22-28 to 8 during the current reporting week, June 29 through July 5. Average daily solar flux went from 73.6 to 71.7.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 6.9 to 7.1 and average mid-latitude A index went from 7.4 to 8.3, barely any change.

    Predicted solar flux is 76 on July 7, 78 on July 8-13, 75 on July 14, 71 on July 15, 72 on July 16-19, 71 on July 20-27, 70 on July 28 through August 2, 71 on August 3-11, 72 on August 12-15 and 71 on August 16-20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 7, then 8, 25, 18 and 12 on July 8-11, then 8, 5, 13 and 11 on July 12-15, 5 on July 16-20, 11 on July 21-22, 5 on July 23-31, 7 on August 1-2, 5 on August 3-8, then 23, 13 and 11 on August 9-11, 5 on August 12-16, 11 on August 17-18 and 5 on August 19-20.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 7-August 3, 2017.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on July 11, 18, 25-26, August 1
    Mostly quiet on July 7, 17, 19-21, 24, 29-31
    Quiet to unsettled July 9-10, 16, August 2-3
    Quiet to active on July 8, 12-13, 15, 22-23, 27
    Active to disturbed on July 14, 28

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on July (8,) 9-12, 14-17, (18, 21,) 22-24, (25,) 30-31.

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

    Max White, M0VNG, of Worcester, England sent this very interesting space weather audio dispatch from the UK Met Office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/mostly-weather/episode11[1]

    Check this: https://www.space.com/37330-solar-minimum-coronal-holes-space-junk.html[2]

    And finally, Dick Bingham, W7WKR, who lives way off the grid ("1.2 miles up Company Creek Road") near Stehekin, Washington sent this off-topic but fascinating piece about an ancient computer: http://wapo.st/2sU76Zx[3]. I've heard about this artifact before, but never in such detail.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for June 29 through July 5, 2017 were 12, 11, 11, 11, 0, 0, and 11, with a mean of 8. 10.7 cm flux was 71.8, 71.5, 70.7, 71.2, 71.7, 71.8, and 73, with a mean of 71.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 11, 18, 5, 4, and 3, with a mean of 7.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 4, 14, 20, 7, 5, and 2, with a mean of 8.3.


    [1] http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/mostly-weather/episode11
    [2] https://www.space.com/37330-solar-minimum-coronal-holes-space-junk.html
    [3] http://wapo.st/2sU76Zx
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 14 19:39:57 2017
    07/14/2017

    Spaceweather.com[1] reported that at 0209 UTC on July 14 a powerful M2 class solar flare and CME erupted, so geomagnetic predictions in this bulletin for the next few days may already be out of date.

    Average daily sunspot numbers were 28.3 during this reporting week (July 6-12) up from 8 during the previous week. Average daily solar flux increased from 71.7 to 87.

    Average planetary A index increased from 7.1 to 9.1, and average mid-latitude A index increased from 8.3 to 9.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 92 on July 14-17, 90, 85 and 78 on July 18-20, 85 on July 21-28, 90 on July 29-30, 85 on July 31 through August 5, 87 on August 6-11, 85 on August 12-24, and 90 on August 25-26.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 18 and 10 on July 14-16, then 15, 10, 8 and 5 on July 17-20, 11 on July 21-22, 5 on July 23 through August 4, then 25, 18, 12, 15 and 10 on August 5-9, then 5 on August 10-13, then 12, 10 and 5 on August 14-16, 11 on August 17-18, and 5 on August 19-26.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for July 14 to August 10, 2017.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on July 17, 25-26, August 1-2
    Mostly quiet on July 16, 24, 27, 30-31, August 4, 8
    Quiet to unsettled July 15, 18-20, 23, August 3
    Quiet to active on July (13 -) 14, 21-22, 28-29, August 7
    Active to disturbed on August 5-6

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on July 13-16 (-17), 20-21, (23-24, 28-29,) August 6-8

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

    Currently, solar flux values are running higher than earlier predictions. This is because of the emergence of 2665, the largest sunspot group of 2017, now in a state of decay. Solar flux reached a recent high on July 10 of 95.1, but a week earlier predicted solar flux for that date was only 71.

    Predicted solar flux for July 14-17 is 92.

    Story from twin-cities (Minnesota) TV about the largest sunspot of 2017: http://kare11.tv/2tP87nJ[2]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for July 6 through 12, 2017 were 16, 25, 24, 31, 32, 27, and 43, with a mean of 28.3. 10.7 cm flux was 75.9, 79.5, 86.6, 90.9, 95.1, 91.1, and 90.2, with a mean of 87. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 3, 28, 9, 8, and 4, with a mean of 9.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 5, 3, 26, 11, 9, and 5, with a mean of 9.6.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] http://kare11.tv/2tP87nJ
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 21 20:08:07 2017
    07/21/2017

    Average daily sunspot number this week declined just 1.7 to 26.6, even though there were two days in the reporting week with no sunspots, July 18-19. The blank Sun condition continued at least one more day on Thursday, July 20 which lands it on the first day of the next reporting week, July 20-26.

    Average daily solar flux was 85.9, down 1.1 from the previous week.

    Average planetary A index rose 3.9 points to 13, average mid-latitude A index rose from 9.6 to 10.9.

    A coronal mass ejection (CME) on July 16 struck at 0545 UTC driving the planetary A index to 41, and 27 the following day.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on July 21-27, 75 on July 28, 90 on July 29 through August 11, 85 on August 12-13, 80 on August 14, 74 on August 15-19, 75 on August 20-24, and 90 on August 25 to September 3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12 and 8 on July 21-23, 5 on July 24 through August 4, then 25, 10 and 8 on August 5-7, 5 on August 8-14, 8 on August 15-16, then 15 and 12 on August 17-18, 5 on August 19-31, and 25, 10 and 8 on September 1-3.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent us this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 21-August 8, 2017

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on July 25 -26, August 1-2
    Mostly quiet on July 24, 27, 30-31, August 4, 8
    Quiet to unsettled July 23, August 3
    Quiet to active on July 21-22, 28-29, August 7
    Active to disturbed on August 5-6

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on July 21, (23-24, 28-29), August 6-8

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

    David Moore sent a link to an excellent NY Times science article titled "Unlocking Mysteries in the Sun's 11-Year Cycle": http://nyti.ms/2tdddgv[1]

    Another interesting article: https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/studying-the-solar-cycle[2]

    And the latest from Tamitha Skov: http://bit.ly/2uOPeob[3]

    http://bit.ly/2vqusbs[4]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for July 13 through 19, 2017 were 55, 58, 34, 26, 13, 0, and 0, with a mean of 26.6. 10.7 cm flux was 92.3, 93.9, 91.6, 86.5, 85.6, 78.2, and 73.1, with a mean of 85.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 4, 41, 27, 7, and 4, with a mean of 13. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 4, 29, 23, 7, and 5, with a mean of 10.9.


    [1] http://nyti.ms/2tdddgv
    [2] https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/studying-the-solar-cycle
    [3] http://bit.ly/2uOPeob
    [4] http://bit.ly/2vqusbs
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 28 19:34:48 2017
    07/28/2017

    All the indicators we track at the bottom of this bulletin fell last week.

    Because there were no sunspots in six of the seven days (July 20-26) last week, average daily sunspot number dropped from 26.6 to 1.7. Average daily solar flux declined from 85.9 to 69.7.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 13 to 11.9, while the mid-latitude A index went the opposite direction, from 10.9 to 12.9.

    The latest predicted solar flux (as of July 27) shows 68 on July 28-29, 72 and 76 on July 30-31, 80 on August 1-3, 82 on August 4-11, 80 and 75 on August 12-13, 70 on August 14-25, 80 on August 26, 82 on August 27 through September 1, 80 on September 2-4, 82 on September 5-7, and 80, 75 and 70 on September 8-10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 7, 5, 6, 12, 10 and 8 on July 29 through August 2, 5 on August 3-5, 25 and 10 on August 6-7, 5 on August 8-15, 15 on August 17-18, then 12 and 8 on August 19-20, 5 on August 21-31, then 25, 10 and 8 on September 1-3, and 5 on September 4-10.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 28-August 22, 2017.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on August 4, 9
    Mostly quiet on July 30, August 2, 8, 10, 14-15
    Quiet to unsettled July 28-29, August 1, 3, 16
    Quiet to active on July 31, August 5, 7, 11, 13, 17-22
    Active to disturbed on August 6, 12

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on July 13-16 (-17), 20-21, (23-24, 28-29,) August 6-8

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction due to irregular changes in position and area of coronal holes.

    American Geophysical Union reports on 200 year old sunspot drawings discovered in Maine: http://bit.ly/2tPjuiI[1]

    Don't miss the Solar Eclipse QSO Party on Monday, August 21 from 1400-2100 UTC. This is a wide-ranging propagation experiment intended to observe what happens when the moon blocks ionizing solar radiation from the ionosphere. The event is sponsored by ARRL and HamSCI, and the details are in the August 2017 QST, or you can read the same QST article at http://bit.ly/2tJ6EON[2] .

    Martin McCormick, WB5AGZ, of Stillwater, Oklahoma reported on July 23: "This has been one of the less spectacular sporadic E seasons so far with several openings but very few that are the type one will remember much after they occurred.

    "After learning that WWV had installed a turnstile antenna on its 25 MHz transmitter, I began parking a receiver on that frequency to see if I could hear it in North-Central Oklahoma.

    "During the first couple of weeks I heard nothing, but then WWV began coming in around 0000 UTC starting July 20.

    "Whatever is ionizing the E layer to create this propagation is sticking around for a few days because once it started fading in, it has made numerous appearances this last week. It has mostly been in the mid to late evenings Central time, but on Sunday, July 23, it has been in with a fair signal since around 1200 UTC and is still somewhat audible at 1700 UTC as I write.

    "It is good that WWV is transmitting on 25 MHz, as there are almost no steady identifiable signals in high HF and low VHF anymore to indicate when the bands are open.

    "There is an announcement at 17 minutes past the hour stating that the turnstile antenna's configuration will not change until after the eclipse on 21 August.

    "The theory that one of the possible triggers for a Sporadic E event has to do with clouds of iron and magnesium atoms from meteorites is interesting because we seem to have nothing for days at a time even though geomagnetic activity is not unusually low or high, and then we have several active days of Sporadic E and the numbers are not any different than they were when there was no Sporadic E at all."

    Later, Martin provided this link: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010JGRA..11512318K[3]

    He also commented, "The idea that a cloud of something such as magnesium or iron ions is one of the factors makes a lot of sense since we don't have sporadic E every day, all summer or all winter, even though the angle of Solar radiation is totally predictable and the geomagnetic activity indices are always present, if variable. So, something else, which is hard to see and slow-moving, must also contribute to causing sporadic E.

    "Those of us who have been listening to both sporadic E and normal ionospheric propagation for years notice that the fading rate of signals always speeds up when there is lots of variation in the Sun's magnetic field and slows way down when things are quiet.

    "The 25 MHz WWV signal was audible here last week almost every evening and most of last Sunday, but this week, there have been only a few seconds in which it pops in briefly and then everything goes dead again."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for July 20 through 26, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 0, with a mean of 1.7. 10.7 cm flux was 70.2, 69.4, 69.5, 70.6, 70.1, 69.8, and 68.6, with a mean of 69.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 14, 16, 14, 12, 9, and 11, with a mean of 11.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 13, 18, 16, 13, 9, and 15, with a mean of 12.9.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2tPjuiI
    [2] http://bit.ly/2tJ6EON
    [3] http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010JGRA..11512318K
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Aug 5 00:04:10 2017
    08/04/2017

    At 0549 UTC on August 3 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this warning:

    "During UT days 4-5 August expect an increase in geomagnetic activity up to active to minor storm levels due to influence of the recurrent coronal hole.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 04-05 AUGUST 2017.

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
    04 Aug:  Active
    05 Aug:  Active"

    Spaceweather.com issued this warning later on the same day:

    "GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say there is an 80 percent chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Aug. 4th when a solar wind stream is expected to buffet Earth's magnetic field. The wind is flowing from a canyon-shaped hole in the sun's atmosphere, so wide that it is almost bisecting the solar disk. Storm levels could reach G2-category (moderately strong) during the late hours of Aug. 4th, subsiding to G1-category (minor) on Aug. 5th. Visit Spaceweather.com for more information and updates."

    More zero-sunspot days appeared over the past week, but less than the previous week, in fact the average daily sunspot number increased from 1.7 to 5, and average daily solar flux went from 69.7 to 71.

    Both are very low numbers, and below the minimum non-zero sunspot number (11) for any single day.

    We saw average daily planetary A index go from 11.9 to 5, and the average dally mid-latitude A index (measured in Virginia) decline from 12.9 to 6.

    These numbers are generally good for HF propagation, being lower, but for the best HF propagation we like sunspot numbers and solar flux as high as possible.

    Predicted solar flux is 77 on August 4-11, 75 on August 12-13, 73 on August 14, 70 on August 15-26, 78 on August 27-29, 75 on August 30 through September 9, 73 on September 10, and 70 on September 11-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 25 on August 4-5, 12 and 8 on August 6-7, 5 on August 8-16, 15 on August 17-18, 12 on August 19, 10 on August 20-22, 5 on August 23-26, then 12, 10, 8 and 5 on August 27-30, then 25, 18, 12 and 8 on August 31 through September 3, then 5 from September 4 through 12, and 15 from September 13-14, 12 on September 15 and 10 on September 16-17.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interested Group passes on his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 4-30, 2017.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on August 8-10, 15, 25-26, 29-30
    Mostly quiet on August 11, 16, 27
    Quiet to unsettled August 7, 14, 21, 23-24, 28
    Quiet to active on August 6, 12-13, 17-20, 22
    Active to disturbed on August 4-5

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on August 5-9, 14-23, (28).

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.
    - A further Geomagnetic activity forecast will be issued on a regular basis August 10th, but the next will be compiled on August 31, because of the author's participation in the expedition.

    Contrary to the ancient times when our publishing began, there are other relatively reliable and usable resources today."

    OK1HH refers to an upcoming DXpedition, but I don't have any info on it yet. I checked some of the usual sources, but came up with nothing, and will check with OK1HH.

    W7WKR sent this: http://nyti.ms/2f4mpNH[1]

    Max White sent this: http://bit.ly/2uUxsNm[2]

    Note the Perseid meteor shower is on for this week, with the peak occurring August 11-13.

    N0AX and others reminded me that the upcoming HamSCI experiment this month in conjunction with the solar eclipse is not actually sponsored by the ARRL, but is a creation of HamSCI, Ham Radio Science Investigation. Check them out
    at http://www.hamsci.org/[3] .

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for July 27 through August 2, 2017 were 0, 0, 12, 11, 0, 0, and 12, with a mean of 5. 10.7 cm flux was 68.3, 69.5, 69.9, 69.5, 72.2, 73.5, and 74.4, with a mean of 71. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 4, 4, 3, 6, and 5, with a mean of 5. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 7, 4, 3, 2, 10, and 8, with a mean of 6.


    [1] http://nyti.ms/2f4mpNH
    [2] http://bit.ly/2uUxsNm
    [3] http://www.hamsci.org/
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Tue Aug 15 20:21:20 2017
    08/15/2017

    Average daily sunspot numbers for the recent reporting week (August 3-9) rose 7.1 points to 12.1, and average daily solar flux rose from 71 to 73.2.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 5 to 11.3, and mid latitude A index rose from 6 to 10.9.

    Predicted solar flux for the near term is 74 on August 15-21, 72 on August 22, 68 on August 23-28, 70 on August 29, and 72 on August 30 through September 8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 16, 26 and 20 on August 15-18, then 16, 14, 12, 10 and 6 on August 19-23, 5 on August 24-29, then 12, 24, 18 and 14 on August 30 through September 2, and 5 on September 3-8.

    W7WKR sent this: http://nyti.ms/2f4mpNH[1]

    Max White sent this: http://bit.ly/2uUxsNm[2]

    Ward Silver, N0AX, and others reminded me that the upcoming HamSCI experiment this month in conjunction with the solar eclipse is not actually sponsored by the ARRL, but is a creation of HamSCI, Ham Radio Science Investigation. Check them out at http://www.hamsci.org/[3] .

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for August 3-9, 2017 were 13, 13, 13, 13, 11, 11, and 11, with a mean of 5. 10.7 cm flux was 75.1, 74.1, 74.1, 73.5, 72.7, 71.1, and 71.5, with a mean of 71. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 23, 16, 13, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 5. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 19, 17, 13, 6, 5, and 5, with a mean of 6.

     


    [1] http://nyti.ms/2f4mpNH
    [2] http://bit.ly/2uUxsNm
    [3] http://www.hamsci.org/
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 18 20:06:35 2017
    08/18/2017

    Several readers pointed out those averages for the various indicators we track were all wrong last week. Average daily sunspot number was 12.1 instead of 5, although the rest of the text in the bulletin was correct. Likewise, average daily solar flux was 73.2 instead of 71.

    And average daily planetary A index was 11.3 instead of 5, and mid-latitude A index was really 6.9 instead of 6.

    The current (most recent) week, August 10-16 showed average sunspot numbers at 15.3 and average solar flux at 72.

    Predicted solar flux is 78 and 77 on August 18-19, 76 on August 20-24, 72 on August 25, 68 on August 26-28, 70 on August 29, 72 on August 30 through September 8, 70 on September 9, 68 on September 10-24, 70 on September 25, and 72 on September 26 to October 1.

    Predicted planetary A index is 24, 18, 16, 14 and 12 on August 18-22, 8 on August 23-24, 5 on August 25-29, then 12, 24, 18, and 14 on August 30 through September 2, 5 on September 3-7, 10 on September 8, 8 on September 9-10, then 5, 10, 20, 25, 15, 12, 10, 8 and 6 on September 11-19, 5 on September 20-25, and 12, 24, 18, and 14 on September 26-29, then 5 on September 30 and October 1.

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 18-24, 2017:

    Quiet:       Aug 22-24
    Unsettled:   Aug 20-22
    Active:      Aug 18-19
    Minor storm: Aug 18

    Geomagnetic activity summary:
    We expect an active minor storming episode within the next 24 hours. Expect active conditions August 18-19. Friday (August 18), the K-index may reach 5 (minor storming event). Saturday, August 19, we expect at most unsettled to active conditions.

    The following two days August (20-21), we expect at most unsettled conditions with one isolated active event.

    The rest of the forecast week (August 22-24), we expect quiet to unsettled conditions.

    Tomas Bayer
    RWC Prague
    Institute of Geophysics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague
    Department of Geomagnetism
    Budkov observatory (BDV)"

    Solar eclipse mania: http://bit.ly/2tG6njO[1]

    On Monday, don't miss the total solar eclipse and the related Solar Eclipse QSO Party: http://hamsci.org/seqp[2]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for August 10-16, 2017 were 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 21, and 30, with a mean of 15.3. 10.7 cm flux was 71, 69.8, 70.3, 68.2, 73, 74.2, and 77.3, with a mean of 72. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 7, 11, 7, 5, 4, and 6, with a mean of 6.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 7, 12, 9, 5, 3, and 5, with a mean of 6.9.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2tG6njO
    [2] http://hamsci.org/seqp
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 25 19:25:48 2017
    08/25/2017

    All solar indicators rose over the past week (August 17-23), with average daily sunspot number increasing from 15.3 to 39.9, and average daily solar flux from 72 to 84.6, compared to the previous seven days.

    Predicted solar flux is 79 on August 25, 80 on August 26, 78 on August 27-30, 75 on August 31, 78 on September 1-2, 75 on September 3-7, 80 on September 8, 85 on September 9-14, 88 on September 15-16, 90 on September 17-22, 85 and 80 on September 23-24, 78 on September 25-29, 75 on September 30 through October 4, 80 on October 5, and 85 on October 6-8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 25, 5 on August 26-27, 8 on August 28-29, 10 on August 30, 18 on August 31 to September 1, 14 on September 2, 5 on September 3-7, then 10 and 8 on September 8-9, then 5 on September 10-12, 25 on September 13, 30 on September 14-15, then 25, 8, 10 and 6 on September 16-19, 5 on September 20-25, then 12, 24, 18 and 14 on September 26-29, 5 on September 30 through October 4, and 10 and 8 on October 5-6 and 5 October 7-8.

    And now from our correspondents in Eastern Europe:

    "Solar activity forecast for the period August 25-August 31, 2017

    Activity level: mostly low
    X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A8.0-B4.5
    Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 75-95 f.u.
    Events: class C (0-5/day), class M (0-4/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
    Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 11-80

    Martina Exnerova
    RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 24-August 31, 2017

    Quiet: Aug 26-29
    Unsettled: Aug 24-25, 30-31
    Active:    Aug possible Aug 31
    Minor storm: 0
    Major storm: 0
    Severe storm: 0

    Geomagnetic activity summary:
    Currently, an active episode has been recorded. At the Budkov observatory, the local K-index did not exceed level 4.

    Thursday, August 24, we expect at most unsettled conditions. Next day, Friday, August 25, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled level. Quiet to unsettled conditions are predicted for the rest of forecast period. At the end of August, active episode is possible about August 31.

    Tomas Bayer
    RWC Prague
    Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
    Department of Geomagnetism
    Budkov observatory (BDV)"

    Did you witness the eclipse on Monday? I found a group of my neighbors gathered on the street corner after 1700 UTC, and they had one of those taped-together box arrangements for projecting the image. We were in Seattle, north of the band of darkness that spread over northern Oregon. Someone drove by with a box of those special safe eclipse glasses, and they worked very well.

    Reports from friends who travelled to Madras, in Eastern Oregon's Jefferson County reported that in the middle of the totality band they saw the sky go totally dark, and stars illuminated the sky.

    Scott Craig, WA4TTK of Nashville, Tennessee sent this, along with a link to eclipse photos he took: "Thought you might like these. They are photos of Monday's eclipse taken here in Nashville. I took them and keep looking at them because I find them fascinating." http://sc-photo-tn.com/?page_id=2389[1]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for August 17-23, 2017 were 30, 41, 33, 44, 43, 48, and 40, with a mean of 39.9. 10.7 cm flux was 76.7, 80, 86.8, 86, 87.1, 90.2, and 85.1, with a mean of 84.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 29, 21, 31, 22, 11, 23, and 25, with a mean of 23.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 20, 20, 23, 21, 13, 16, and 17, with a mean of 18.6.

     


    [1] http://sc-photo-tn.com/?page_id=2389
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 1 17:52:38 2017
    09/01/2017

    A new video from Dr. Skov: https://youtu.be/qvjfFpRMQpY[1]

    Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this week (August 24-30). Average daily sunspot number went from 39.9 to 33.3, while average daily solar flux declined to 81.2 from 84.6.

    Average planetary A index declined from 23.1 to 7.1, and average mid-latitude A index went from 18.6 to 7.4.

    The latest forecast shows planetary A index at 24, 16, 12 and 8 on September 1-4, 5 on September 5-6 then 8, 10 and 8 on September 7-9, 5 on September 10-12, 25 on September 13, 30 on September 14-15, then 25 and 12 on September 16-17, 8 on September 18-19, 5 on September 20-22, 10 on September 23-24, then 8, 15, 25, 18, 15 and 8 on September 25-30, then 5 on October 1-4, 10 and 8 on October 5-6, 5 on October 7-9, 25 on October 10, 30 on October 11-12, then 25, 12 and 8 on October 13-15.

    Predicted solar flux is 92 on September 1-2, 91 on September 3, 90 on September 4-7, 80 on September 8, 85 on September 9-14, 88 on September 15-18, 85 on September 19-20, then 82 and 80 on September 21-22, and 78 on September 23-25, 77 and 75 on September 26-27, 74 on September 28-29, 72 on September 30 through October 3, 75 and 80 on October 4-5, 85 on October 6-11 and 88 on October 12-15.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 1-27, 2017 from OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on September 10-11, 20-21
    Mostly quiet on September 4-6, 23, 26
    Quiet to unsettled September 3, 8-9, 19, 22, 27
    Quiet to active on September 2, 7, 12, 16-17, 24
    Active to disturbed on September 1, 13-15, 18, 25

    Remark:
    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for August 24-30, 2017 were 43, 39, 35, 22, 17, 35, and 42, with a mean of 33.3. 10.7 cm flux was 78.8, 80.8, 77.5, 78.2, 81.6, 84.3, and 86.9, with a mean of 81.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 5, 5, 10, 4, 10, and 5, with a mean of 7.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 16, 7, 5, 6, 3, 10, and 5, with a mean of 7.4.

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/qvjfFpRMQpY
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Sep 9 11:29:33 2017
    09/09/2017

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Wow! What a week for solar activity. Although the solar cycle is trending toward a solar minimum in around 2020, we will still see notable upticks in activity, such as this week's surprises. 

    On August 31, Spaceweather.com reported a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm. The planetary A index was 59. The following day Spaceweather.com reported geomagnetic unrest with a planetary A index of 19. The index was 26 on September 2, when Spaceweather.com reported sunspot group AR2674 "rapidly growing, increasing in both area and sunspot count." 

    "As the sunspot grows, its magnetic field is becoming unstable, posing a threat for M-class solar flares," the site reported. The planetary A index was 9 on September 3, when Spaceweather.com reported two huge sunspot groups facing Earth. 

    "Behemoth AR2674 has been growing for days, while newcomer AR2673 has suddenly quadrupled in size, with multiple dark cores breaching the surface of the sun in just the past 24 hours. This movie[1] from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows sunspot genesis in action. 

    On September 4, the planetary A index was 18, and Spaceweather.com reported: "Huge sunspot AR2673, which materialized with shocking speed over the weekend, is seething with activity." 

    A few days ago in Romania, solar photographer Maximilian Teodorescu captured this snapshot[2] of plasma currents surging inside the sunspot's magnetic canopy, apparently on the verge of an explosion." Note the recent emergence of large sunspot areas[3].

    We also saw the largest solar flare in more than a decade launch on Thursday night. 

    Predicted solar flux is 115 on September 9; 105 on September 10; 90 on September 11-15; 85 on September 16-17; 88 on September 18; 92 on September 19-21; 95, 98, 100, and 105 on September 22-25; 110 on September 26-October 2; 105 on October 3-5; 100, 95, 90, 85, and 80 on October 6-10; 85 on October 11-14; 88 on October 15; 92 on October 16-18, and 95, 98, 100, 105, and 110 on October 19-23. 

    The predicted planetary A index is 30 and 10 on September 9-10; 8 on September 11-12; 28, 30, 20, 25, and 12 on September 13-17; 5 on September 18-19; 8 on September 20; 5 on September 21-22; 8, 5, 8, and 5 on September 23-26; 20 on September 27-29; 12, 10, 8, and 5 on September 30-October 3; 15 on October 4-5; 8 on October 6; 5 on October 7-9; 25 on October 10-12; 20, and 10 on October 13-14; 5 on October 15-16, and 8, 5, 5, 8, 5, 8, and 5 on October 17-23. 

    Here is the latest geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 8 to October 4, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group. The geomagnetic field will be:

     Quiet on September 20, 24 

    Mostly quiet on September 11, 21 

    Quiet to unsettled on September 12, 19, 22, 25, October 2-4 

    Quiet to active on September 10, 15, 17-18, 23, 26-27, 30, and October 1 

    Active to disturbed on September 8-9, 13-14, 16, and 28-29

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on September 8-10, 13-19, 27-28, and October (1) and 2-4. (Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.) 

    Lou, VK5EEE, sent this, which I edited: 

    "Do not believe modern-day short-cut Internet-gimmicks such as this [he included a reference to an online tool predicting propagation titled "HF Conditions"]. Have a listen to the propagation beacons, tune around the bands! 

    "Remember there is no such thing, generally speaking, as a global HF one-size-fits-all-situation, in spite of the modern trend of pathocracies to attempt to paint that picture into their systems. Part of the world is in darkness, part in light. There are many grey areas. The K index varies from location to location. East-west and north-south paths are affected differently by events. 

    "If we were to reply on things such as the 'HF Conditions' gadget, we may not even turn on our radios and turn on the TV instead! Nor should we rely on advanced real-time programs such as VOAProp by G4ILO. While useful, these also give sometimes wildly false readings. For example, as I write this, bands including 10 are having great propagation to all of America and to Asia, and perhaps to other places too, while showing that even with 4 kW and a big high-up Yagi at most S-1 signals from a few isolated places north of Australia would be possible. Not. I just need to tune in to 28,200 to hear all the beacons coming in so nice and clear, and they are running 100 W to simple Ground Plane antennas. 

    "What does the Australian government have to say about conditions right now on the SWS website? Disturbed! 

    "Again, we may be tempted to take that at face value; 20-10 have not been open much from VK in recent times with very low solar flux and no sunspots at times. However, right now, 10 is open, 12 is open, 15, 17, and 20 meters too. Little activity, but the beacons are clear, and Costa Rica is booming in on SSB on 20, even though the local time here is high noon with the sun high in the sky. 

    "If we look at the regional T index map[4], we see that in Australia and New Zealand conditions are actually enhanced. If we look at the world map[5], we see that conditions in most of the world are enhanced, most of the rest is normal, and only a few areas in parts of the Central Pacific and near to the North Pole (parts of Canada, part of Greenland) and northern Siberia are depressed. So why is there so much alarm and depressed shown as one size fits all on simple condensed gimmicks? Well, it is true for those few parts of the world. And somewhere the K index is indeed 8, somewhere it is worse, somewhere better.

    "Bear in mind that while over today and tomorrow there is a possibility or even a probability of HF fade outs (not worldwide, but generally on the sun side of Earth) but the solar activity being high to very high means that when there is not a fadeout, conditions are most likely to be enhanced! We should be happy that the solar flux is now well above 100, as that means HF openings on higher bands more often. 

    "With the current predicament of those few radio amateurs who are not hampered by various distractions, the local noise levels are prohibitive on lower frequencies. When bands above 20 open up, we should not be scared off by a glance at the poor prediction and miss out on all the easy DX with simple antennas and low noise to be had while the higher HF bands are wide open. Let us not forget the IBP beacons, and to tune around and call CQ even when predictions would encourage you do to otherwise." 

    Lou makes some excellent points. The various propagation models used in the tools for predicting HF success are based on mean predicted sunspot numbers for the month, and cannot predict real-time HF propagation. Lou included this URL, http://30cw.net/[6] I had not yet encountered the word "pathocracies," but a search engine offered several examples.

     On September 7, Mark Lunday, WD4ELG, in North Carolina reported great propagation to South America on 10 meters using the new FT8 mode. Here's more about FT8[7] from Joe Taylor, K1JT: 

    Jon Jones, N0JKJ, in Kansas, wrote on September 4: 

    "10 Meters was back Sunday afternoon August 27 for intercontinental DX. 

    "I had been working the Hawaii QSO Party on 15 and noted spots for Hawaiians on 10. I went to 10?Unfortunately, I did not hear Hawaii but logged WP4JW FK68 on 10 SSB at 2307 followed by LU5XP FF97 Argentina at 2310. The QSO with WP4JW was probably double hop Es, as I saw many Es contacts spotted around this time on 10. The LU contact may have been Es link to TEP. LU5XP was very loud for about 15 minutes then vanished abruptly. HK1MW was spotted via Es to W3, W7 and W0. 

    "Stations in Hawaii did work North America on 10 meters on August 27; I saw Hawaiians spotted by stations in Florida, Texas, California, Washington State, Oregon, and New Mexico." 

    An archive of past propagation bulletins[8] is on the ARRL website. More good information[9] and tutorials on propagation are on the website of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    Monthly propagation charts[10] between four US regions and twelve overseas locations are on the ARRL website, as are the instructions[11] for starting or ending e-mail distribution of ARRL bulletins. 

    Sunspot numbers for August 31-September 6, 2017 were 59, 62, 71, 96, 122, 122, and 79, with a mean of 87.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 91.9, 93.4, 100, 120.2, 140, 120.5, and 132.9, with a mean of 114.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 31, 19, 26, 9, 18, 12, and 11, with a mean of 18. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 20, 17, 25, 10, 16, 11, and 18, with a mean of 16.7.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2vOgnZ6
    [2] http://bit.ly/2wKVmvK
    [3] http://bit.ly/2eN4Xh0
    [4] http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/6/1
    [5] http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/9/1
    [6] http://30cw.net/
    [7] http://ve3wdm.blogspot.com/2017/07/ft8-from-zero-to-fifteen-seconds.html [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 15 18:47:41 2017
    09/15/2017

    At 0005 UTC on September 15 the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning.

    "The previous geomagnetic warning is extended for two more days. The high-speed streams associated with the coronal hole is expected to persist for a few days. If the Bz component of the IMF turned strongly southward for prolonged periods, earth could experience minor storm conditions. Otherwise, expect mostly unsettled to active condition for the next two days (15 and 16 September).

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAMFROM 15-16 SEPTEMBER 2017

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
    15 Sep:  Active
    16 Sep:  Active"

    Over the past reporting week (September 7-13) sunspot numbers and solar flux were lower, while geomagnetic indicators were higher.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 87.3 to 45, and average daily solar flux went from 114.1 to 97.6.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 18 to 27.3, and average daily mid-latitude A index went from 16.7 to 18.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 74 on September 15-21, then 90, 92, 95, 98, 105, 110, 115 and 120 on September 22-29, 125 on September 30 and October 1, then 120, 115, 110, 100, 95, 90, 85, 83, 81 and 84 on October 2-11, 83 on October 12-14, 84 on October 15, 85 on October 16-17, then 88, 90, 92, 95, 98, 105, 110, 115 and 120 on October 18-26, 125 on October 27-28 and 120 on October 29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 28 on September 15-16, 26 on September 17, 12 on September 18-21, 5 then 5, 8, 5, 8 and 5 on September 22-26, 20 on September 27-29, then 18, 15, 12 and 8 on September 30 through October 3, 5 on October 4-7, then 7 and 12 on October 8-9, 30 on October 10-12, 20 and 10 on October 13-14, 5 on October 15-16, then 8, 5, 5, 8, 5, 8 and 5 on October 17-23, 20 on October 24-26, then and 18, 15 and 12 on October 27-29.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 15-October 11, 2017 from OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on September 23-24
    Mostly quiet on September 20, 27
    Quiet to unsettled September 19, 21-22, October 4, 6
    Quiet to active on September 15, 17, 25-26, 30, October 1-3, 7-8, 10-11
    Active to disturbed on September 16, 18, 28-29, October 5, 9

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on September 15-19, 27-29, October (1,) 2-5, (8)

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH
    Czech Propagation Interested Group"

    Here are videos from September 7 by Dr. Tamitha Skov. The second one is an hour-long program in which she answers viewer's questions about recent activity. It contains lots of great information. I love it when she tries to set the record straight about HAARP. No, it is not a tool for mind control or messing with the weather!

    https://youtu.be/oMAl5b5cXm0[1]

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahMAY_GRxpA[2]

    Here is a Newsweek article about seven massive solar flares in seven days: http://www.newsweek.com/solar-flares-sun-hot-spot-664118[3]

     

    Chuck Zabriskie, KE5HPY, of Houston, Texas reported on September 9: "I thought one could add WSPR to the propagation aids discussed in your latest report. With the high flux report, I put my homebrew 10-meter WSPR receiver on-line and happily recorded TI, CE, ZL and multiple VK calls for the first time in a long while. Of course, those were regular events a couple of years ago, but now are rare enough to me get excited to look at the logs."

    On September 11 N8II, Jeff Hartley in Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote: "While it has been mostly bad, the very high absorption has settled down at times to make for some interesting openings. I observed a total ionospheric blackout at 1703Z Sunday, followed at 2030Z with some of the best conditions in the Worked All Europe contest of the whole weekend from then until the end at 2400Z. Northern and eastern Europe were not workable, however, on either 20 or 40 meters except for Ukraine and southern Russia on 40 meters. Signals from Germany to the west and south were loud on 20 meters in the 2100Z hour. I was unable to work any Europeans at 2400Z Saturday with the very high absorption conditions at that time, despite loud French signals on 20 meters in the 2300Z hour."

    On September 14 Jeff wrote: "It has been a roller coaster of conditions with some equatorial paths enhanced in the past 9 days or so. The only time I heard Asia during the AADX phone contest on Labor Day weekend was Sunday around 0100Z and that was Kazakhstan. That weekend, I primarily operated the Colorado QSO party and would say that 20 meters was poor a couple of hours in the early afternoon, but otherwise in decent shape to Colorado, which is a good distance for us for single-hop F2 despite a high K index. Forty meter signals seemed down a bit, especially early evening, but some mobiles and K8TE operating portable, probably with a vertical and barefoot, were easy copy by 2400Z (my local sunset was about 2335Z). Only W7RF who has a pretty big station was heard on 80.

    "The CW Ops contest started at 2000Z on September 2 and there seemed to be some Es into the W4/5 call areas; there were many loud signals and western European stations were workable without having to move my main Yagi from the west. Later, there also seemed to be some Es into the Midwest, allowing loud signals past when F2 would normally fade.

    "Tuesday, September 5, was an above-average day despite a fairly high K index. In the 1200Z hour on 20-meter SSB, I worked ZS3Y in South Africa long path, VK4FW/P who was in a park, VK6JDW, and P29LL in Papua New Guinea. Then I checked 30 meters to find VK4FW/P about 10 dB louder than he was on 20 meters, as well as E51JHQ in the South Cook Islands. At 1308Z, I tried a CQ on 15-meter SSB after hearing a strong British station on CW and F4BWX (an American living in Royan, France) answered saying I was the first USA station he had heard on 21.300 MHz during over 4 weeks of monitoring. He was a solid S5 here, despite running only 100W to a dipole. I went on to work several stations in England and Germany on 15-meter CW and phone. The biggest European surprise was a good signal from Ivan, RA7A in Krasnodar, Russia (Black Sea area). The I saw a spot from North Carolina of James, 9V1YC, in Singapore on 15-meter CW and, amazingly, he was a solid S5-6 here and I went right into his log at 1534Z. I also heard a weak Indonesian station on 17 meters around 1300Z. This was the best day of the week/past several months on 15 meters. After that the flares and high absorption limited anything non-equatorial. 

    "On the 7th at 0045Z, I worked special anniversary calls XK150YT and CI1AAA operating from Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada and they were S9, but CQs toward Asia were fruitless and no spots of Asians were noted. FK8IK, in New Caledonia, had a good signal on 15-meter CW at 0051Z. He was worked in North America on 12 and 10 meters earlier.

    "Since then, conditions have been poor. The Worked All Europe contest was 9th-10th and was quite a challenge. The first good opening I found on 20 meters was around 2300Z on Saturday evening, but I was gone most of the day. Spanish and French stations were loud, but no stations were loud enough to hear me on 40 meters due to disturbed conditions. Sunday morning signals were poor on 20 meters, but I did manage QSOs with northern Sweden and the Aland Islands along with other European big guns. There was a brief opening on 15-meters that allowed me to work UA7K in southern Russia at 1335Z, as well as Spain, Slovenia, Croatia, and Malta around 1445Z. There was a total blackout on all bands when I checked at 1703Z, due to the X8 class flare, but by 2000Z signals from Germany, Italy, the Balkans were normal and I was able work the same areas on 40 meters in the 2300Z hour, but activity was pretty low."

     

    So, in last week's bulletin ARLP036, we reported a remarkable increase in solar activity. On the air, HF radio operators reported fantastic conditions, at least in quieter periods between solar flares. The average daily sunspot number was 87.3 reported in ARLP036. How long since we have seen similar activity?

    Last year, in bulletin ARLP034 on August 19, 2016, the average sunspot number reported was 73.9, and it was 86.6 in ARLP007 on February 12, 2016. However, the last time we reported a higher average weekly sunspot number than last week's bulletin was November 6, 2015 when it was 90.3.

    Looking back further in 2015 we saw these numbers:

    120.9 40  Oct 2, 2015
    112.4 33  Aug 14, 2015
    104.5 32  Aug 7, 2015
    112.4 24  Jun 12, 2015
    146.9 20  May 15, 2015
    120.9 17  Apr 24, 2015

    The number after the average sunspot number on the left is the propagation bulletin number for that year. Perhaps we will see a return to this level of activity in 3-4 years, after a projected minimum in 2019-2020.

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8]. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for September 7-13, 2017 were 94, 89, 49, 38, 23, 11, and 11, with a mean of 45. 10.7 cm flux was 12bbbb8.5, 116.8, 107.2, 100.2, 79.9, 75.5, and 75.1, with a mean of 97.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 38, 96, 6, 7, 11, 18, and 15, with a mean of 27.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 23, 50, 6, 12, 8, 16, and 13, with a mean of 18.3.

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/oMAl5b5cXm0
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahMAY_GRxpA
    [3] http://www.newsweek.com/solar-flares-sun-hot-spot-664118
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 29 18:47:33 2017
    09/29/2017

    The past week was a good one for HF propagation. Average daily sunspot numbers doubled from the previous week, rising from 13.6 to 27, while average daily solar flux rose from 72.6 to 84.3. Average daily geomagnetic numbers were lower, with average planetary A index declining from 21.1 to 9.9 and average daily mid-latitude A index from 17.1 to 7.6.

    Last Friday was the autumnal equinox, so we should see a seasonal improvement in HF conditions.

    Predicted solar flux is 91 on September 29 to October 1, 89 on October 2-5, 90 on October 6-7, then 85, 76, 75, 74 and 73 on October 8-12, 72 on October 13-15, then 71, 74, 73, 78, 80, 87 and 90 on October 16-22, 95 on October 23 to November 2, then 90, 85, 76, 75, 74 and 73 on November 3-8 and 72 on November 9-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 28, 18, 14, 12 and 8 on September 29 to October 3, 5 on October 4-10, 25 on October 11-13, then 20 and 15 on October 14-15, 8 on October 16-17, 5 on October 18-21, then 16, 8, 20, 25, 20, 10 and 8 on October 22-28, 5 on October 29 through November 6, 25 on November 7-9, then 20, 15 and 8 on November 10-12.

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 29 to October 25, 2017 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on October 6, 23
    Mostly quiet on October 5
    Quiet to unsettled October 3, 10, 16-21
    Quiet to active on September 29-30, October 2, 4, 7-8, 11, 14-15, 22, 24
    Active to disturbed on October 1, 9, 12-13, 25

    Increases of solar wind, mostly from coronal holes, are expected on September 29 (-30), October (1, 3, 6,) 11-16, (17-18, 21-22, 24,) 25

    Remark:
    - New activity on the Sun can dramatically change real development, which has been happening more often lately.
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH
    Czech Propagation Interested Group
    OK1HH compiling weekly forecasts since January 1978"

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, the Space Weather Woman, has a new video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVYN0UrSgjY[1]


    Recent sunspots: http://bit.ly/2hAMAwO[2]

    Bob Kupps, HS0ZIA, of Chiang Mai Province in Thailand reported on September 25, "Propagation on 15 meters was much better than the numbers might suggest. I worked 5T5OK, 9J2BO and A25SP on CW all 2-3 hours after sunset on Sep 25. Heard PY1VOY calling the A2 with very strong signals at 1400Z - 3 hours after sunset." Be sure to check Bob's page on QRZ.com to see his fabulous location and antennas.

    Rich Zwirko, K1HTV in Virginia reported on September 25, about his adventures with weak signals via the FT-8 mode. But first, a review:

    http://www.iw5edi.com/ham-radio/2283/getting-started-ft8[3]

    https://w5fc.org/2017/07/15/new-digital-mode-from-k1jt-ft8/[4]

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoCngsKW9tc[5]

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3iuPyIFhco[6]

    From K1HTV, "On Sunday September 24, propagation on the 15 meter band was very good to Europe, the Middle East and Africa and the 21.074 MHz FT8 frequency was packed. The next day, September 25 around 2200 UTC, while listening to 7.074 MHz, the 40 meter FT8 frequency, the band seemed to be in pretty good shape with many European stations being decoded. Running 75 Watts and a wire antenna on 40M, I managed to work VK6RZ and VK7AP both via the long path.

    "Switching to 20 meters, as European FT8 stations started to fade out around 0000Z, the start of the September 26 UTC day, the band started to go long. The SFI was 90 and the K index was 0. After working VK6YM via the long path (SE), I moved the beam to the north in hopes that I'd copy some Asian stations over the northern polar route.

    "I wasn't disappointed. Over the next three hours, using the new FT8 digital mode and running 75 W to a triband Yagi, I worked 16 stations in Asia. 10 stations were in Japan, 2 in Asiatic Russia, 2 in Kazakhstan and HS5SRH in Thailand. But the best DX of the evening was 9N1AA in Nepal for my FT8 DXCC country #144. The new FT8 mode has caught on worldwide in a big way. It is not unusual, during peak hours, to simultaneously decode between 20 and 30 stations during each 15 second sequence, many of them -20 dB or weaker on the approximately 2 kHz AWGN (Additive White Gaussian Noise) channel.

    "The use of FT8 has resulted in the realization that despite what appears to be poor propagation, many DX contacts can still be made on the HF bands."

    On September 28, K1HTV reported: "While I'm at it, I thought that you would be interested to know that in the early hours of September 26 the over the pole conditions to Asia were great.

    "Running 75 W and using FT8, I worked HS5SRH in Thailand, 10 JA stations, two UA0s and a pair of Kazakhstan stations. But the best DX worked that evening was 9N1AA in Nepal for my FT8 country #144.

    "I was hearing Japanese stations until almost local midnight here at my Virginia location. Forty meter conditions at local dawn were good enough to work a few VK stations. I spent the early to mid-afternoon working FT8 stations in Europe, western Africa and South America, and later working 5W0RA in Samoa and a VK2 station before the band closed.

    "By evening and the start of UTC September 27, the polar route to Asia was still good enough to work four stations in Japan, but unlike the previous day, the band shut down hours earlier as conditions started to deteriorate.  During the daylight hours of September 27, 20-meter conditions were pretty good to Europe.

    "But by later afternoon, with the K Index climbing up to 7, the northern routes started to suffer. On the positive side, while the K index was 7, I gave 60 meters a try and was happy to work 5T5OK (Mauritania) on CW.

    "Using FT8, many European stations were worked as well as XT2AT (Burkina-Faso), which was another new FT8 DXCC entity. This morning (September 28), with the K index still high, I got on 40 meters and was pleasantly surprised when, on FT8, I copied 4S7AB. After only a few calls, the Sri Lankan station was in the K1HTV log for FT8 country #147."

    Rich worked 147 countries with this new weak signal mode in a short period of time, using low power.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for September 21-27, 2017 were 22, 22, 12, 22, 36, 40, and 35, with a mean of 27. 10.7 cm flux was 73, 77.5, 81.2, 86.9, 89.9, 90.7, and 91, with a mean of 84.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 5, 6, 5, 4, and 37, with a mean of 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 5, 4, 5, 5, 3, and 24, with a mean of 7.6.



     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVYN0UrSgjY
    [2] http://bit.ly/2hAMAwO
    [3] http://www.iw5edi.com/ham-radio/2283/getting-started-ft8
    [4] https://w5fc.org/2017/07/15/new-digital-mode-from-k1jt-ft8/
    [5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoCngsKW9tc
    [6] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3iuPyIFhco
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 6 20:23:34 2017
    10/06/2017

    Many things fall apart. Over the past week, the 45-day outlook for solar flux and planetary A index at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[1] has been in a failure mode (probably at the US Air Force end, based on experience) with no new predictions for three days, October 2-4. This is the longest outage that I recall for this resource.

    Thanks to AD0IU, Space Scientist at the Space Weather Prediction Center for straightening this out.

    Two weeks ago, my e-mail account (at Gmail, although forwarded from k7ra@arrl.net[2]) could not successfully pass e-mail to any addresses in the arrl.org[3] domain, which meant that ARLP038 was not posted on September 22.

    Over the past week (seven days through October 4) average daily sunspot numbers rose from 27 to 32.6, and average daily solar flux rose from 84.3 to 87.9, compared to the previous seven days.

    Average daily planetary A index changed from 9.9 to 16.3 and average daily mid-latitude A index (measured at a single magnetometer at Wallops Island in the state of Virginia) increased from 7.6 to 12.7.

    Predicted solar flux is 85, 82, 80 and 78 on October 6-9, then 75 on October 10-12, 80 on October 13, 72 on October 14-15, 74 on October 16-18, then 78 and 80 on October 19-20, 85 on October 21-28, 86 on October 29-30, 84 on October 31, 86 on November 1-2, then 84, 81 and 75 on November 3-5, 72 on November 6-11, 74 on November 12-14, 78 and 80 on November 15-16, and 85 on November 17-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, 12, 8, 5, 25, 30, 25, 20 and 15 on October 6-15, 8 on October 16-17, 5 on October 18-23, then 35 and 52 on October 24-25, 15 on October 26-27, then 10 and 8 on October 28-29, 5 on October 30 through November 1, then 8, 12 and 8 on November 2-4, 5 on November 5-6, 25 on November 7-9, 20 and 15 on November 10-11, 8 on November 12-13, and 5 on November 14-19.

    Those predictions from USAF were sent by the Space Weather Prediction Center at 2122 UTC on October 5, 2017.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 6 to November 1, 2017 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interested Group.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on October 7, 22-23, 30

    Mostly quiet on October 6, 17-19, 21, 29

    Quiet to unsettled October 10, 15-16, 28, 31, November 1

    Quiet to active on October 8, 11, 13-14, 20, 24, 27

    Active to disturbed on October 9, 12, 25-26

    Amplifications of the solar wind, mostly from coronal holes, are expected on October (6,) 11-16, (17-18, 21-22, 24,) 25

    Remark:

    - Amplifications of the solar wind prediction is less reliable at present.

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

     

    Fascinating story about previously unknown Hisako Koyama, a female Japanese solar observer who helped fill in the long-term record of sunspot cycles: http://bit.ly/2xNEXqR[4]

    This link has the best image of Koyama: http://bit.ly/2xjGkf0[5]

    She was born in Tokyo in 1916, retired in 1981 and died in 1997.

     

    Check out this resource on receiving antennas (Thanks to ARRL Contest Update): https://www.w8ji.com/receiving.htm[6]

     

    W3LPL and K9LA discuss propagation for the upcoming contest season and predictions for the rest of the current sunspot cycle and the next one too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPydjVi6qLw[7]

     

    Here is an academic paper on the ratio of the number of sunspots to the number of sunspot groups: http://bit.ly/2hQf6uG[8]

     

    This is an excellent article from Earth and Space Science News from the American Geophysical Union on short-term funding priorities vs the long-term record keeping needed for understanding solar cycles: http://bit.ly/2xYoOzb[9]

     

    Learn how an upcoming solar probe will approach the Sun closer than any other spacecraft: http://bit.ly/2hQnBWk[10]

     

    I'm not sure, but I think this may be the latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eav7fDO3vfc[11]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[16].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17].

    Sunspot numbers for September 28 through October 4, 2017 were 40, 39, 38, 34, 25, 25, and 27, with a mean of 32.6. 10.7 cm flux was 90.9, 89.7, 89.4, 85.7, 86, 86.4 and 87, with a mean of 87.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 55, 12, 16, 11, 7, 8, and 5, with a mean of 16.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 41, 8, 11, 10, 6, 8, and 5, with a mean of 12.7.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [3] http://arrl.org
    [4] http://bit.ly/2xNEXqR
    [5] http://bit.ly/2xjGkf0
    [6] https://www.w8ji.com/receiving.htm
    [7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPydjVi6qLw
    [8] http://bit.ly/2hQf6uG
    [9] http://bit.ly/2xYoOzb
    [10] http://bit.ly/2hQnBWk
    [11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eav7fDO3vfc
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [15] http://k9la.us/
    [16] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 13 17:41:29 2017
    10/13/2017

    At 0326 UTC on October 12 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning.

    "The high-speed streams associated with a recurrent positive polarity Northern hemisphere coronal hole are expected to persist for a few days. If the Bz component of the IMF turned strongly southward for prolonged periods, earth could experience Minor Storm conditions on 13 October.

    "Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream for 13 October 2017."

    Earlier Spaceweather.com[1] reported, "A hole in the sun's atmosphere is spewing solar wind toward Earth, and this is sparking bright auroras around the poles on Oct. 11. At the time of this alert, a G1-class geomagnetic storm is underway. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70 percent chance of continued storms at high latitudes on Oct. 12 and 13 as Earth moves deeper into the solar wind stream. Visit Spaceweather.com for pictures and updated forecasts."

    There were no sunspots visible on October 8 through 12, and the last new sunspot to appear was September 25, which was still visible on October 7, but not since then.

    Average daily sunspot numbers for the past week (October 5-11) dropped from 32.6 the previous seven days to 8.4. Average daily solar flux declined from 87.9 to 76.8. Geomagnetic activity also dropped but is now increasing. Average daily planetary A index went from 16.3 to 8.9, and average mid-latitude A index went from 12.7 to 8.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on October 13-17, then 72 on October 18-19, 80 on October 20-31, 76 on November 1-5, 74 on November 6-14, 76 on November 15, and 80 on November 16-26.

    Predicted planetary A index is 35, 25, 20, 10, and 8  on October 13-17, 12 on October 18-19, 5 on October 20-23, then 35 and 45 on October 24-25, 15 on October 26-27, then 10 and 8 on October 28-29, 5 on October 30-31, then 8 and 10 on November 1-2, 5 on November 3-5, then 8, 25, 30, 36, 28, 16 and 8 on November 6-12, 5 on November 13-19, then 35 and 45 on November 20-21, 15 on November 22-23, then 10, 8 and 5 on November 24-26.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 13 till November 8, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on October and November-irregularly
    Mostly quiet on October and November-irregularly
    Quiet to unsettled October (18-22, 24,) 28-29, (30-31,) November (1-2, 4-6) Quiet to active on October 13-16, (17, 23,) 26-27, November 3, 7
    Active to disturbed on October 25, November 8

    Amplifications of the solar wind, mostly from coronal holes, are expected on October 12-17, (18, 22, 24,) 25-26, November 7-12

    Remarks:
    - Amplifications of the solar wind-prediction is less reliable at present.
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.

    Here is a new video from Tamitha Skov, Space Weather Woman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJDK3fGmVXg[2]

    I understand Dr. Skov is studying for her amateur radio exam!

    Here is a report from N8II in West Virginia, sent on October 9: "There were quite decent conditions over the weekend; OH0Z on Aland Island was S9 on 15-meter SSB both Saturday and Sunday. Despite a flux of 72 today, I heard northern Sweden on 15-meter CW and worked several Ukraine stations with good signals in the 1400Z hour along with others farther west in Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Germany, England, Spain and France. Fifteen meters has been open well to EU almost every day in the past 2 weeks! I worked the California QSO party and found that 20 meters was excellent well into the evening Saturday (open past 0045Z). Fifteen meters was very good into California from 1600-2000Z Saturday with southern California noticeably favored on Sunday until around 1900Z. Starting at 2007Z, I worked 6 southern California stations on 10-meter CW, all of which were less than S9, some weak. N4PN in Macon, Georgia reported over 100 CA QSOs on 10 meters in the party!"

    On October 6, Bil Paul, KD6JUI of Dixon, California sent this: "After having had a rough time over the past several months getting out on HF from my kayak with just 10 W, yesterday (October 5) I was operating on 17 and 20-meter SSB while on the water and easily got out using my end-fed half-wave wire vertical (cut for 20 meters). I worked as far as the East Coast without much difficulty. I even had an XE2 from lower Baja California break into a QSO to tell me I was 5/9 down there. The solar flux was 85 - enough to make quite a difference."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for October 5 through 11, 2017 were 26, 22, 11, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 8.4. 10.7 cm flux was 84.7, 84.1, 79.6, 76.7, 72.3, 70.9, and 69.6, with a mean of 76.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 9, 5, 4, 3, 4, and 30, with a mean of 8.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 6, 5, 3, 2, 13, and 21, with a mean of 8.

     


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJDK3fGmVXg
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 20 19:08:15 2017
    10/20/2017

    The past reporting week (October 12-18) saw very little solar activity, with a sunspot number of 12 on October 15, meaning the average daily sunspot number was only 1.7, down from the already low average of 8.4 over the previous seven days.

    Over the same two periods, average daily solar flux declined from 76.8 to 70.5, while average daily planetary A index increased from 8.9 to 21.1 and average mid-latitude A index went from 8 to 16.7.

    Dr. Skov says there are sunspots just beyond the solar horizon which should soon come into view and begin to affect Earth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJDK3fGmVXg[1]

    Predicted solar flux over the near term is 74, 78 and 82 on October 20-22, 86 on October 23-26, 72 on October 27 through November 2, 70 on November 3-14, 72 on November 15-29, then 70 on November 30 through December 3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 20-21, then 10, 5, 35 and 45 on October 22-25, 15 on October 26-27, then 10, 8, 5 and 5 on October 28-31, then 8 and 10 on November 1-2, 5 on November 3-6, then 28, 30, 40, 28, 26, 18 and 10 on November 7-13, then 12 on November 14-15, 8 on November 16-18, then 5, 35 and 45 on November 19-21, 15 on November 22-23, then 10 and 8 on November 24-25, 5 on November 26-27, then 8 and 10 on November 28-29, and 5 on November 30 through December 3.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 20 to November 15, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on October 20, 30-31, November (19)
    Quiet to unsettled on October 22, 28-29, November 1-6, 13-15
    Quiet to active on October 21, 23-27, November 7, 9-12
    Active to disturbed on November 8

    Amplifications of the solar wind, mostly from coronal holes, are expected on October (22, 24,) 25-26, November 7-12

    Remarks:
    - Amplifications of the solar wind-prediction is less reliable at present.
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

    Jeff, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia sent this report on October 13: "Punk conditions with the K index as high as 6 and almost always at least 4 during the last 3 days, but I heard VU7T Lakshadweep Island around 20Z with S5-7 signals and worked Spain and Gibraltar on 15-meter CW in the morning on October 12. Today many Europeans were readable calling 3C0L, Annobon Island, on 20-meter CW and I finally did work them."

    On October 19, Jeff added: "Surprisingly, with the SFI running 69-72 recently, 15 meters has been open to at least southern Europe for the past 4 days. I have also worked Reunion Island, FR4QK, on October 11 and heard 9J2BO in Zambia on 15-meter CW. Two ops from Lithuania have been doing an outstanding job of decreasing worldwide demand for Annobon Island off the west coast of Africa while operating there as 3C0L.

    "They had a good signal on all bands 160 through 12 meters here and I have made QSOs with them on all HF bands except 40, 30, and 10 meters. They were very good copy on 160 meters throughout the evening on October 16 and 18. They were S9+20-25 dB on 15-meter SSB on October 18 at around 2100Z and easily working to the West Coast. Conditions on 15 have also been good to the Middle East around 1300-1500Z most days and I've contacted Israel, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar."

    K2CHM from Framingham, Massachusetts reported on October 13: "Much to my surprise and pleasure I worked ZD7FT on St Helena Island SSB at 1950 UTC October 11 on 28.489 MHz.  My location is FN42 in eastern Massachusetts and I am only running 60 W to a dipole about 20 feet off the ground."

    David Moore sent this link: http://bit.ly/2zBkuWV[2]

    Jon Jones, N0JK in Kansas sent these notes on October 16: "Sporadic-E is rare in October, the only month of the year with less is March. Any Es in October is a Halloween treat!

    "There has been sporadic-E on 6 Friday 10/13, Saturday 10/14 and Sunday 10/15 this weekend. Perhaps associated with the high geomagnetic activity. Sunday was probably the best.

    "From work, I logged KM4SEG EL88 at 1648z on October 15 on SSB at 50.145 MHz. I was using the old MFJ-9406 with 10 W output to a 1/4 wavelength magnetic-mount whip. It was a solid contact and I received 5x5 to 5x7 reports. I heard, but didn't work, AE2DX. I noticed that Florida stations had Es openings to Texas from 1500z to after 1900z.

    "Most activity was initially old school CW and SSB. Later, there were some FT8 signals.

    "That afternoon the Es - TEP link path opened from New England to Chile and Argentina.

    "LU5FF        2206Z 50105.2 FF99 FN42 599                   NK1K    
    "LU5FF        2206Z 50105.2 FF99<>FN42 599                  NK1K    
    "LU5FF        2202Z 50105.0 s5 FN44 MAINE                   K1TOL 

    "Both CW and FT8 QSOs were logged. Great to see some F-layer DX this late in the solar cycle.

    "More 6 meter sporadic-E on October 16.

    "KD4ESV in Florida spotted the HI8W/b and some domestic station spots:

    "KD4ESV       1811Z  50125.0 EM57<ES>EL87RL                  WA4Q    
    "K8TV         1809Z  50125.0 EN81 EL87 58 52                 KD4ESV  
    "W3DOG/b        1802Z  50071.0 469 QSB IN (LOWER ALABAMA)   WB4JPG  
    "W4IMD        1759Z  50125.0                                 K1TTT   
    "N9RD         1757Z  50125.0 EN61 EL87 57                    KD4ESV   

    "More 50 MHz activity: Some weak Es on October 16 allowed links to TEP. I heard LU5FF on 50.105 MHz CW and had audible tones on CE2AWW at. CE2AWW worked stations from W1, W2, W4, W5 west to California. K5CM in em25 had CE2AWW s9+ at 2352z. Both LU5FF and CE2AWW operated CW and FT8."

    Another piece on Hisako Koyama: http://to.pbs.org/2yUqKfi[3]

    There is an Athens Astronomical Association in Athens, Georgia and Athens Astronomical Society in Athens, Ohio, but I believe this is the Ohio organization: http://bit.ly/2iocdl0[4]. Looks like a useful event of interest to sun watchers.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for October 12 through 18, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 12, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 8.4. 10.7 cm flux was 70.2, 69.7, 69, 70.3, 70.9, 70.3, and 73.2, with a mean of 76.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 29, 42, 31, 26, 9, 6, and 5, with a mean of 8.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 20, 26, 26, 31, 6, 4, and 4, with a mean of 8.

     

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJDK3fGmVXg
    [2] http://bit.ly/2zBkuWV
    [3] http://to.pbs.org/2yUqKfi
    [4] http://bit.ly/2iocdl0
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 27 19:36:04 2017
    10/27/2017

    Solar activity increased over the past couple of weeks, with average daily sunspot numbers at 13.4 on October 19-25, compared to 1.7 over the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux increased from 70.5 to 76.7 over the same two weeks.

    The reason for the radically different averages is because this past week there were just two days with no sunspots, and the previous week had no sunspot activity on six of the seven days. Thanks to Don Wright, AA2F, for noticing that the averages shown at the bottom of last week's bulletin ARLP042 were carried over from the previous week's bulletin, ARLP041.

    Average daily planetary A index was 11.6, declining from 21.1 to 11.6, and average daily mid-latitude A index decreased from 16.7 to 9.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the near term is 78 on October 27, 77 on October 28-30, 76 on October 31 through November 2, 77 on November 3, then 84 and 82 on November 4-5, 80 on November 6-17, 82 on November 18-19, 84 on November 20, 85 on November 21-30, then 84 and 82 on December 1-2, and 80 on December 3-10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 16, 12 and 8 on October 27-29, 5 on October 30-31, then 8 and 16 on November 1-2, 15 on November 3, 5 on November 4-6,  then 28, 30, 40, 28, 26 and 8 on November 7-12, 5 on November 13-14, then 12, 10, 8, 6 and 5 on November 15-19, then 18, 45, 40, 18 and 12 on November 20-24, then 10, 8, 5, 8 and 10 on November 25-29, then 5 on November 30 through December 3, then 28, 30, 40, 28, 26 and 8 on December 4-9, and 5 on November 10.
     

    David Moore sent this: http://bit.ly/2zIY2Lw[1]

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interested Group presents his Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 27 to November 22, 2017.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on November 4, 6, 12-13
    Mostly quiet on October 29-31, November 1, 3, 5, 15-17, 19
    Quiet to unsettled on October 28, November 2, 18, 20
    Quiet to active on October 27, November 7, 11, 14, 22
    Active to disturbed on November 8-10, (21)

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
    on October (31), November (1-3,) 9-14, 20-21

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Current forecasts remain less reliable.

    Jeff, N8II, of West Virginia on October 26 wrote: "It has been a very interesting week on the bands with two major European-to-East Coast 10-meter band openings and other days with 10-meter QSOs with Europe from here in West Virginia near DC.

    "On Friday, October 20, my first contact on 15-meter SSB was LY3W in Lithuania, a much farther north opening than usual. I then checked 12-meter CW and found 3B8DB in Mauritius at 1318Z. After a brief break at 1338Z, a run of western and southern Europeans answered my 12-meter SSB CQs working as far east as Bulgaria.

    "I then noticed a cluster spot of DM500RT in Germany on 10-meter CW, who I had just worked on 12-meter CW and SSB, and he was good copy 559 and logged him at 1355Z.

    "Italian and French stations were logged over the next 15 minutes, followed by Brian, 9J2BO, in Zambia -- all CW. At 1458Z, Henry, IZ5CML was found S9 on 10-meter SSB and that was followed by a nice run of Europeans on SSB.

    "I logged Croatia and three Malta calls, all from the same station (9H9GSM) getting ready for the Boy Scout jamboree. I also picked up Portugal, Spain, Balearic Island (EA6/DK5IR), and many Italians including two 5th area mobiles (IW5EKR/M was S9).

    "My last European contact was with Spain at 1536Z. At 1518Z S01WS, Western Sahara was logged on 10-meter CW. 3C0L on Annobon Island, operated by two very talented Lithuanians, was logged at 1804Z on 10-meter CW. I then had a run of very loud Brazilians on 10-meter SSB right after 3C0L. The SFI was around 73, extremely low for an F2 10-meter opening to Europe.

    "The second noteworthy day was Tuesday, October 24. At 1501Z, YL2BJ in Latvia was found on 12-meter CW, the first northern European contact of the season. Then, after a break, I heard an OH8 station on 10-meter CW calling in a pile up on Trinidad.

    "Moments later, I found OF6LW in Finland CQing with a S9 signal and worked him at 1620Z. I then was called by Finns OH3XR and OG2T, as OH0Z on Aland Island, and LA5LJA in Norway.

    "Peter, SM2CEW, called on 10-meter CW and said he could see bright aurora and the K index indeed rose to 4 here, followed by as high as 6 later in the day.

    "All the Scandinavians had polar or auroral flutter, but only LA5LJA had noticeably degraded copy with a buzzing note. I experienced a similar opening in early March 2015 during the ARRL International DX contest, but the SFI was high enough that nearly all of Europe was workable. The opening was most likely auroral sporadic E linked to F2 on my end.

    "Later, at 1642Z, GI4DOH was found on 10-meter CW. I went on to log Spain, Ceuta (EA9ABC), Madeira Island, Gibraltar, and finally Canary Island at 1852Z. SSB activity was high around 1800Z with good backscatter for USA signals, but the European opening did not favor my area. None of the southern European stations had any flutter."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for October 19 through 25, 2017 were 0, 0, 11, 13, 23, 23, and 24, with a mean of 13.4. 10.7 cm flux was 73.4, 75.7, 76.5, 77.3, 78, 77.5, and 78.8, with a mean of 76.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 8, 10, 6, 6, 18, and 21, with a mean of 11.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 5, 13, 6, 3, 13, and 15, with a mean of 9.1.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2zIY2Lw
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 3 22:04:30 2017
    11/03/2017

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 13.4 to 17.7 for the October 26 to November 1 period, compared to the previous seven days. The main reason for the difference was that the previous seven days started out with two days with no sunspots, and the latter period ended with one day of zero sunspots, on November 1.

    Predicted solar flux is 74 on November 3-4, 73 on November 5-9, 71 on November 10, 70 on November 11-13, 71 on November 14, 72 on November 15-16, 73 and 74 on November 17-18, 75 on November 19-28, 72 on November 29-30, 70 on December 1-10, 71 on December 11, 72 on December 12-13, then 73 and 74 on December 14-15 and 75 on December 16-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 3, 5 on November 4-5, then 8, 16, 25, 30, 28, 25 and 8 on November 6-12, then 5 on November 13-14, then 12, 10 and 8 on November 15-17, 5 on November 18-19, then 20 on November 20-22, 5 on November 23-27, 8 on November 28, 15 on November 29-30, then 10, 8, 5, 25 and 28 on December 1-5, then 35, 25, 20 and 8 on December 6-9, 5 on December 10-11, then 12, 10 and 8 on December 12-14, then 5 on December 15-16 and 18 on December 17.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 3-29, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on November 4, 6, 12-13, 23-27
    Mostly quiet on November 3, 5, 16-19
    Quiet to unsettled on November 15, 20
    Quiet to active on November 7, 11, 14, 22
    Active to disturbed on November 8-10, (21)

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected November (3,) 9-14, 20-21

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Current forecasts remain less reliable."

    Lately, it seems we cannot get enough of Hisako Koyama. Yet another story appeared this week at Syfy.com: http://bit.ly/2xT7WJj[1]

    Don't miss the links at the end of the article showing detailed instructions for sketching sunspots.

    Dr. Tamitha Skov on October 31: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrUxUXTaL7A[2]

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote: "Jeff, N8II's comments concerning the 10 meter openings in the ARLP043 Propagation bulletin inspired me to check 10 meters in the CQ WW SSB contest last weekend.

    "Saturday afternoon, October 28, was not good in Kansas, with only a few very weak Argentinian and Brazilian stations coming through.

    "The following day was much better. I set up fixed mobile station running 100 W and a full size 1/4 wave whip at 1905z in eastern Kansas on a hilltop. It was a sunny afternoon, with temperatures in the middle 60s. FM5BH went into the log at 1909z, followed by a very loud HI3T at 1911z, then CU4DX on 28.325 MHz for the only European at 1912z. Over the next hour and half, I logged around 40 more stations, a mixture of Caribbean, Central America and South America. DX included FY5KE, PZ5K, OA4SS, HC2G and HP1XT. Some short F2 propagation occurred and I put CO8RH in the log at 1952z and Stan, K5GO, at ZF9CW at 2002z. Not bad for a solar flux of 75."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1, 2017 were 23, 23, 22, 23, 22, 11, and 0, with a mean of 17.7. 10.7 cm flux was 77.3, 76, 75.4, 75.3, 75.6, 75.4, and 72.6, with a mean of 75.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 5, 6, 4, 3, 3, and 4, with a mean of 6.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 16, 4, 5, 3, 1, 2, and 2, with a mean of 4.7.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2xT7WJj
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrUxUXTaL7A
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 10 21:08:56 2017
    11/10/2017

    No sunspots are visible so far in November, and as of November 9 we have seen nine days of blank sun. But the past few days had strong geomagnetic activity, with planetary A index on November 7-9 at 36, 47 and 20, and so far on early November 10, at 21. 28 is the predicted planetary A index for November 10.

    According to Spaceweather.com, 24 percent of 2017 so far (76 days) have seen zero sunspots. In all of 2016 there were only 32 days (9 percent) with no sunspots. There were no periods in 2015 with no visible sunspot activity.

    Average daily sunspot number dropped from 17.7 last week to zero this week, November 2-8. Average daily solar flux declined from 75.4 to 70.8. Average daily planetary A index changed from 6.4 to 15.6, and average mid-latitude A index rose from 4.7 to 12.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 66 on November 10-11, 68 on November 12-13, 70 on November 14-17, 75 on November 18-30, 72 on December 1, 71 on December 2-3, 70 on December 4-10, then 71, 72, 73, 73 and 74 on December 11-15, and 75 on December 16-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 28, 24, 12, and 8 on November 10-13, then 5, 16, 12 and 10 on November 14-17, 5 on November 18-19, 20 on November 20-22, 5 on November 23-28, 10 on November 29-30, 5 on December 1-2, 10 and 27 on December 3-4, 30 on December 5-6, then 28, 25 and 10 on December 7-9, 5 on December 10-11, 10 on December 12-14, 5 on December 15-16, 20 on December 17-19, and 5 on December 20-24.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 10 to December 6, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecast since 1978.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on November 13-14, 19, 24-28, December 2-3
    Mostly quiet on November 18, December 1
    Quiet to unsettled on November 16, 20, 23, 29
    Quiet to active on November 12, 15, 17, 30, December 30, December 4, 6
    Active to disturbed on November 10-11, 21-22, December 5

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on November 11-15, (16-19,), 20-24, (29-30,) and on December (1-5,) 6-8.

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Current forecasts remain less reliable."

    Also we got this from Tomas Bayer of the Department of Geomagnetism at Budkov observatory, also in the Czech Republic.

    "Geomagnetic activity summary:
    At the Budkov observatory, we observed a minor storm event on November 7, peaking at 1842 UTC. After this event, the conditions are between unsettled to active and through November 10 we expect the same level. Further, we expect at most unsettled conditions til Sunday, November 12, and probably an unsettled event at the end of the forecast period, Thursday, November 16.

    Between Monday, November 13, and Tuesday, November 15, we expect at most quiet conditions only with minor unsettled event."

    Hisako Koyama appears in the news again this week. Check out "Ms. Hisako Koyama: From Amateur Astronomer to Long-Term Solar Observer" at http://bit.ly/2xXk24E[1] .

    Check out this article about an unusual solar event: http://cnet.co/2mc7T9P[2]

    Bruce Smith, AC4G of Taft, Tennessee wrote: "In April 2013, I was so excited to hear and make a QSO with VK9CZ, Cocos Keeling on 80-meter CW as reported in the ARRL Propagation Report. The VK9CZ signal appeared suddenly out of nowhere with 579 signals at my sunset 2343Z via long path. Other stateside operators made the QSO including N4II who studied the technical aspects (science) and wrote a few articles on the path of the VK9CZ signal at grey line for April 2013.

    "Recently, in Nov 2017, 4 years and 7 months later, VK9CZ put on another DXpedition to Cocos Keeling. To my surprise, I heard their signals once again pop out of nowhere on 80 CW at my sunset (from 2235Z until 2325Z) early-November renewing my excitement. The signals long path (SE Beverage antenna) were surpassing 599. I could not pass another chance to say hello this year by giving the op on that side a 599-signal report. His sigs peaked via long path at 10dBs over S9 at my Taft, TN QTH this year Nov 2017. Perhaps Fall long path sigs are better than April sigs? There were several stateside hams who made the 1 November logs on 80 meters. The online log only showed about 36 QSOs in North America who had made the logs according to the Clublog statistics that I was monitoring.

    "On 5 November, I could barely hear the VK9CZ signals long path via SE Beverage antenna. Since then, a few other lucky operators logged an 80m QSO via LP with VK9CZ for a total of 71 80m QSOs as late as 6 November.

    "November 6 was one of their last operating periods closing out their operation with another long path opening. The VK9CZ signals peaked via LP about 539 on this day in Taft, Tennessee. All other days not described above, there were no apparent signals being received at my location in southern Tennessee on 80 meters.

    "My observations revealed one great long path opening at my sunset and one mediocre opening, while the other long path openings were nil to barely readable. As it was in 2013, both VK9CZ and my home were in sunlight for both QSOs taking advantage of another sunrise enhancement.

    "I also monitored 160 meters on days no sigs were heard on 80 meters, but not a whisper from the VK9CZ 160 meter signals at my sunset on many days monitored, or when 160-meter cluster spots indicated VK9CZ operations on 160 meters.

    "By the time the readers read this, the DXpedition will have ended. Hopefully, the next few years may bring other surprises on 80 and 160 meters for us all renewing the DX Spirit for all low band operators."

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for November 2 through 8, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 73.6, 73.2, 72.1, 71.1, 69.4, 68.3, and 67.6, with a mean of 70.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 9, 4, 3, 2, 36, and 47, with a mean of 15.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 7, 2, 1, 0, 26, and 39, with a mean of 12.4.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2xXk24E
    [2] http://cnet.co/2mc7T9P
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 17 21:12:43 2017
    11/17/2017

    Thirteen days of zero sunspots ended on Tuesday, with sunspot numbers of 14, 14, and 15 on Tuesday through Thursday.

    In this week's bulletin average daily sunspot numbers increased from 0 to 4, while average daily solar flux decreased slightly from 70.8 to 70.3. Average planetary A index decreased from 15.6 to 12.3, and average mid-latitude A index declined from 12.4 to 8.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 74 on November 17-24, 75 on November 25-27, then 73, 72 and 71 on November 28-30, 70 on December 1-2, 69 on December 3-4, 68 on December 5-7, 69 on December 8-9, 70 on December 10, 73 on December 11-16, 75 on December 17-24, then 73, 72 and 71 on December 25-27, 70 on December 28-29, and 69 on December 30-31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10 and 15 on November 17-19, 20 on November 20-21, then 18 and 10 on November 22-23, 5 on November 24-28, then 8 and 10 on November 29-30, 5 on December 1-3, then 35, 40, 28, 20 and 10 on December 4-8, 5 on December 9-10, then 15, 18, 12, 15, 12 and 8 on December 11-16, 20 on December 17-19, 8 on December 20, 5 on December 21-25, 8 and 10 on December 26-27, 5 on December 28-30 and on December 31 it jumps to 35, indicating disturbed conditions.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 17 to December 13, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interested Group compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecast since 1978.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on November 24-28, December 2, 9
    Mostly quiet on November 19, 23, 29, December 8
    Quiet to unsettled on November 18, December 1, 3, 11-12
    Quiet to active on November 17, 30, December 4, 7, 12-13
    Active to disturbed on November 20-22, December 5-6

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on November (17-19,), 20-24, (29-30,) and on December (1-5,) 5-7, 9-12.

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Current forecasts still remains less reliable ...

    ARRL SSB Sweepstakes contest is this weekend. Rules can be found at http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes[1]

    Out of Japan, this study confirms that during sunspot cycle minimums, solar activity is consistent from cycle to cycle, but not at solar cycle peaks. https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-11/nion-sms111617.php[2]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for November 9 through 15, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 14, and 14, with a mean of 4. 10.7 cm flux was 65.8, 68.6, 67.3, 69.4, 72.1, 74.4, and 74.2, with a mean of 70.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 21, 8, 6, 6, 11, and 14, with a mean of 12.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 13, 7, 4, 6, 8, and 11, with a mean of 8.6.

     


    [1] http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes
    [2] https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-11/nion-sms111617.php
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 1 23:56:19 2017
    12/01/2017

    We skipped last week's bulletin due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

    Outlook for the near term shows solar flux at 72 on December 1, 70 on December 2-7, 71 on December 8, 72 on December 9-12, 74 on December 13, 75 on December 14-16, 74 on December 17, 73 on December 18-20, 74 on December 21-22, 76 on December 23-29, 72 on December 30-31, 70 on January 1-3, 71 on January 4, 72 on January 5-8, 74 on January 9, 75 on January 10-12, 74 on January 13 and 73 on January 14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 1-3, then 32, 36, 18, 12 and 10 on December 4-8, 5 on December 9-10, then 12, 15, 12 and 8 on December 11-14, 5 on December 15-16, then 8, 25, and 10 on December 17-19, 8 on December 20-21, 5 on December 22-23, 15 on December 24, then 12 on December 25-27, 8 on December 28, 5 on December 29-30, then 35, 40, 28, 20 and 10 on December 31 through January 4, 5 on January 5-6, then 12, 15, 12, 8 and 5 on January 7-11, 8 on January 12-13 and 25 on January 14.

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 1-27, 2017.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on December 2, 16, 23, 26
    Mostly quiet on December 1, 8, 14, 17, 21, 24-25
    Quiet to unsettled on December 3-4, 9-12, 15, 20, 27
    Quiet to active on December 7, 13, 18
    Active to disturbed on December 5-6, 19, 22

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on December (1-2, 4,) 5, 7-8, 17-20, (21-22, 24-25).

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    A new video from Dr. Skov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lbcSEM3DtI[1]

    Jeff, N8II, in West Virginia wrote: "Tonight, November 30, is pretty exceptional on the low bands. On 160 meters several Europeans, including SM3EVR in Sweden, and a G4 in Great Britain, are generating steady pile ups. The ARRL 160-Meter Contest starts tomorrow and USA big guns are flexing their muscles. I also managed a marginal QSO with S01WS, Western Sahara for a new country on 160. Several European stations were worked on 80 meter CW, including Norway and Lithuania.

    "In the CQWW CW DX contest November 25-26, conditions overall were better than last year with no disturbances of consequence throughout and probably slightly lower solar flux. Last year was disturbed until around 1200Z Sunday.

    "The 160-meter band was productive for the big guns the first night. I managed QSOs with Scotland, Ireland, Great Britain, and Hungary along with Caribbean and the north edge of South American running low power 100 W.

    "Conditions on 80 meters could not have been much better through 0500Z the first night. I worked Iceland, Kaliningrad, Europe Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, and Macedonia and many other European countries along with several QSOs with West Africa (Canary Is, Morocco, and Madeira).

    "Forty meters was in good shape to central, western, and southern Europe the first 3 hours first night. One Caribbean station claimed over 3600 QSOs on 40! Asian stations were very difficult to find and work for me including the Arabian Peninsula where I heard Oman and Saudi Arabia.

    "Twenty meters was open very well to Russia before sunrise both days, and on Sunday I managed to get many to answer my CQs. I worked a RA9 station in Asia, but his zone was 16, the same as European Russia. I never heard any Russians from zones 17-19, which was very unusual. Every part of Europe was loud early on both days, but mainly only western Europe was workable by 1600Z and very few Europeans were worked past 1830Z. Many stations were active from West Africa, but I did not hear African zones 34 or 36.

    "V6, Micronesia, was worked short path around 2100Z Saturday and V7, Marshall Islands, on Sunday. Australia was also worked long path in the 2000Z hour and New Zealand at 0130Z short path. Signals from the south were workable all day and peaked around 2100-2300Z.

    "Fifteen meters was fairly marginal with only southern and western Europe the first day with a much better but fairly short opening Sunday around 1300-1415Z which included QSOs with many northern Europe countries including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, northern Finland, Denmark, and Sweden. One southern Russian (R7) was worked and western Europe lingered past 15Z. African signals were good as were the Caribbean and South America. Several Hawaiians, New Zealand, Tonga, and Micronesia were worked in the Pacific.

    "Ten meters was barely open Saturday mostly only to the Sao Paolo, PY2 area and only a bit better Sunday to Argentina, Costa Rica, and Panama. There was sporadic E to Wisconsin and I worked a strong signal from British Columbia via either double hop Es or F2.

    "I meant to mention about northern Europe 15M: This opening was very unusual for late Nov and SFI 72-73, probably the best to this area since the CQ WW SSB weekend a month ago."

    Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas wrote: "The 2017 Winter E-skip season appears to be underway. There was a nice 3 hour sporadic-E opening on 6 meters November 28/29 UTC. Here in eastern Kansas EM28 -- the opening started with both the WB7PMP/b EM95 and the 5 watt XE2O/b EL05 6 meter beacons booming in at 2350z November 28.

    "On 50 MHz, I logged W1RAJ in EM72 on SSB, W4RER in EL89 on CW, K5VWZ in rare grid EL28 on SSB, NM5Z in EM41 on CW, and K4DJ in EM95 on CW and a loud WB7PMP in EM95 between 0015 - 0200z. I noted FT8 spots for double hop sporadic-E between K1TOL Maine to XE2JS in DL68 at 0123z. N2CJ in FN30 spotted N7HD in DM34 at 0104z and WB7PMP in EM95 noted AA7WB in DM26 at 0225z, both SSB double-hop Es. It was a good mix of SSB, CW and the FT8 during the Es opening. A tip to FT8 ops: when conditions are good, contacts can be made quicker on SSB and CW."

    Jon mentioned rare grid EL28. Most of this grid is in the Gulf of Mexico and south of Houston, as seen at http://bit.ly/2AoQ6Qu[2] .

    He also noted the winter E-skip season, which we hope will be active during the ARRL 10 meter contest, next weekend, December 9-10, 2017: http://www.arrl.org/10-meter[3]

    The contest occurs a few days before the peak of the Geminids meteor shower, which could enhance 10 meter conditions.

    Scott Bidstrup, TI/W7RI, in Costa Rica wrote two weeks ago on November 17: "Bands down here in the single-digit latitudes are showing the effects of the approaching solar minimum. There hasn't been a single opening on six meters of any consequence since last September, and normally, we would be in the middle of our evening TEP season into South America by now. I've only seen a handful of FT8 decodes from South America, and by now the band should be busy with activity every night. Since the FT8 protocol permits signal detection at levels well below those of traditional methods such as CW and SSB, the utter lack of decode activity suggests that propagation via the evening TEP mode has all but stalled out. Two years ago, I was busy every night by now.

    "On the HF bands, though, the approaching solar minimum has been good news for us here, as the solar ultraviolet and X-ray emissions that excite the D-layer and cause us our mid-day blackout on the HF bands, has been getting progressively weaker, and so the mid-day blackout has been shorter and less intense recently. There's been quite a bit of TEP activity on ten meters in the afternoons here recently. On just about every day, the 10-meter band has been open from here into CE, LU, CX and PY. But every day it's always the same stations, so there's little incentive to take advantage of it once you've worked them all several times. On 20 through 12 meters, though, there's been plenty of daytime DX from other regions to choose from, with the bands opening into Europe by 10AM and not closing to the Far East until after sunset.

    "Twenty meters has often been open till late in the evening, occasionally even through the night, usually into North and South America with a smattering of Europeans, and 40 meters has been open almost around the clock without fail, often with some good DX, particularly in the early morning. The lower D-layer absorption means that we are frequently working the States in the middle of the day on 40, and every day, without exception, we can see FT8 decodes all day long, even with modest antennas. Even using weak signal modes, that was seldom possible just as recently as last year.

    "The great blessing that FT8 has been for 160, combined with the lower D-layer absorption, means that grayline conditions have been workable for much longer than in the past, and several of my friends have worked some very respectable DX with very modest antennas on 160 including Mellish Reef and several African stations, using 80-meter dipoles tuned with a tuner."

    A possible future solar disturbance like the Carrington Event in the nineteenth century is described somewhat breathlessly, over the top, and as if the event is actually predicted to happen in the next few minutes. Not sure I trust the source, but this one actually proposes a solution, a 100,000 ton coil sitting between Earth and our sun: http://bit.ly/2BrEdbH[4]

     
    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for November 16 through 22, 2017 were 15, 26, 14, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 7.9. 10.7 cm flux was 73.2, 76.4, 76.1, 74.4, 73.6, 73.2, and 73.4, with a mean of 74.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 6, 6, 5, 8, 28, and 10, with a mean of 11. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 5, 5, 5, 7, 16, and 7, with a mean of 8.

    Sunspot numbers for November 23 through 29, 2017 were 0, 0, 13, 15, 15, 14, and 12, with a mean of 9.9. 10.7 cm flux was 72.4, 74.1, 74.3, 75.5, 73.6, 71.9, and 72.6, with a mean of 73.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 10, 7, 3, 5, 8, and 5, with a mean of 6.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 8, 4, 2, 4, 6, and 4, with a mean of 5.

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lbcSEM3DtI
    [2] http://bit.ly/2AoQ6Qu
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [4] http://bit.ly/2BrEdbH
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 8 22:17:15 2017
    12/08/2017

    Solar activity declined slightly over the past week, another period which saw multiple days (five) with no sunspots. We will see more of these periods over the next 2-3 years as the sun progresses toward solar minimum.

    There was a geomagnetic storm peaking on December 5. In Alaska, the College A index reached 55, and peaked around the middle of the UTC day with K index reaching 7 over two 3-hour readings.

    Our reporting week (Thursday through Wednesday) of November 30 through December 6, compared to the previous seven days, we saw average daily sunspot numbers decline from 9.9 to 3.4, and average daily solar flux from 73.5 to 69.6.

    Recent consecutive days with zero sunspots were October 8-14, October 16-20, November 1-13, November 19-24, and December 1-5.

    You can observe data from periods around the last solar minimum with long consecutive periods of no sunspots at: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2007_DSD.txt[1] , ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2008_DSD.txt[2] , ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2009_DSD.txt[3] , and ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2010_DSD.txt[4] .

    Over the past two weeks average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 11.6 while average mid-latitude A index went from 5 to 8.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on December 8-10, 70 on December 11-14, 75 on December 15-16, 74 on December 17, 73 on December 18-20, 74 on December 21-22, then 76, 74, 72, 73 and 72 on December 23-27, 70 on December 28 through January 8, 72 on January 9, 75 on January 10-12, 74 on January 13, 73 on January 14-16, then 74, 74, 76, 74 and 72 on January 17-21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 8, 5 on December 9-10, 12 on December 11-12, 8 on December 13, 5 on December 14-16, then 8, 25 and 10 on December 17-19, 8 on December 20-21, 5 on December 22-26, 10 and 8 on December 27-28, 5 on December 29-30, then 32, 48, 18, 12 and 8 on December 31 through January 4, 5 on January 5-6, then 12, 15, 12 and 8 on January 7-10, 5 on January 11-12, then 8, 25 and 10 on January 13-15, 8 on January 16-17, and 5 on January 18-21.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sends us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 8 til January 3, 2017.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on December 9, 17, 23-24
    Mostly quiet on December 8, 10, 14-16, 22, 25, 30
    Quiet to unsettled on December 11, 26, 28
    Quiet to active on December 12, 20-21, 27, 29, 31, January 2-3
    Active to disturbed on December 13, 18-19, January 1

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
    on December  8 (-11), 17-22, (24-25), 30-31

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    A new sunspot group (AR2690) emerged on December 6 after a period of no sunspots, but spaceweather.com[5] reports that early on December 7 it is already fading.

    This weekend is the ARRL 10 meter contest. There is a good chance for sporadic-e propagation. See http://www.arrl.org/10-meter[6] .

    Tamitha Skov released this new video on December 7: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgQtC0EOIHI[7]

     
    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for November 30 through December 6, 2017 were 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 13, with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 71.7, 70.2, 71.5, 69, 68.4, 67.9, and 68.3, with a mean of 69.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 8, 4, 2, 11, 29, and 16, with a mean of 11.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 5, 2, 1, 6, 21, and 13, with a mean of 8.1.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2007_DSD.txt
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2008_DSD.txt
    [3] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2009_DSD.txt
    [4] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2010_DSD.txt
    [5] http://spaceweather.com
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgQtC0EOIHI
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 15 22:35:27 2017
    12/15/2017

    Over the past reporting week (December 7-13) we saw three days with zero sunspots (December 8, 9 and 13). Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot number more than doubled to 6.9 and average daily solar flux increased from 69.6 to 71.

    One new sunspot group (2691) emerged on December 10 with one spot, which increased to three over the next two days, but by December 13 it had all disappeared. You can see it at http://www.solarham.net/regions/2691.htm[1] .

    According to Spaceweather.com as of Thursday, December 14 for all of 2017 so far 27-percent of all days have had no visible sunspots. They say the blank sun count for 2016 was 9-percent. They show the count for 2009 at 71-percent.

    Current sunspot and solar flux numbers are low enough that coverage for local 75 and 80 meter nets suffers, because they are too low to reflect high angle radiation at 3.5-4 MHz.

    Geomagnetic numbers were low, with average planetary A index declining from 11.6 to 7.4, and mid-latitude A index from 8.1 to 5.6.

    The latest forecast from USAF and NOAA shows solar flux at 72 on December 15-17, 75 on December 18-21, 74 on December 22-23, 72 on December 24-26, 70 on December 27 through January 5, 72 on January 6-8, 74 on January 9-19, 72 on January 20-22, and 70 on January 23-28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 15-16, then 12, 20, 18, 10 and 8 on December 17-21, 5 on December 22-26, 12 and 8 on December 27-28, 5 on December 29-30, then 10, 26, 14 and 10 on December 31 through January 3, 5 on January 4-6, then 14, 16, 14 and 8 on January 7-10, 5 on January 11-12, then 8, 25, 10, 8 and 8 on January 13-17, 5 on January 18-22, then 12 and 8 on January 23-24, 5 on January 25-26 and 10 and 26 on January 27-28.

    The above predictions are updated daily, usually after 2115-2130 UTC, and are located at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[2] .

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 15 to January 10, 2017.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on December 23-24, 26, January 5-6,
    Mostly quiet on December 16, 25, January 4,
    Quiet to unsettled on December 15, 17, 30, January 7-8
    Quiet to active on December 20-22, 27-29, 31, January 3, 9
    Active to disturbed on December 18-19, January 1-2, 10

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on December (17,) 18-22, (24-25, 30-31,) January 1-3, (4,)
    5-7, (8)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    A pretty good post about aurora appeared in an adult Scouting blog at https://blog.scoutingmagazine.org/2017/12/12/northern-lights/[3] . It showed nice images of aurora too, although it is important to keep in mind that the most beautiful and dramatic images are captured using long exposure times.

    This post makes a common error when it says, "The Sun cycles in about 11 years of increased sunspots," when actually the period of increased sunspots is somewhere in the middle of this period. Eleven years is the approximate total length of a typical solar cycle, which may vary from 9 to 14 years, from one solar minimum to the next.

    English usage nitpick: Instead of "and can hurdle solar particles toward Earth" I think the word the author had in mind was "hurtle". They sound mostly the same, so are often confused, according to http://grammarist.com/spelling/hurdle-hurtle/[4]

    The post contains a very useful link to a frequently updated forecast of aurora at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast[5]

    Reports from last weekend's ARRL-10-meter contest indicate terrible conditions. I operated briefly on Saturday, hearing nothing but local area CW signals, no phone.

    Checking the ARRL contest soapbox at http://www.arrl.org/contests/soapbox[6], it looks like nobody used a dupe sheet or duplicate checking program; activity was so low, they didn't need one.

    KE2SX in North Carolina (FM05sw) commented that he worked only 6 "very local stations" over the whole weekend (all in his state), so there was only a single multiplier--his own state!

    K2AF reported from New Jersey (FN20nu) that this is his favorite contest, but "This year, I am hoping that I got both station's calls right so that I don't end up with a negative score."

    The latest space weather news from Dr. Tamitha Skov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KY0l83t1VL0[7]

    FT8 (the latest mode from K1JT) seems to have taken the amateur radio service by storm in recent months, with an amazing rate of acceptance due to its weak signal capabilities and easy implementation. But check out this blog post from NW7US regarding the Olivia mode, which facilitates actual conversations via weak signals: http://bit.ly/2kuX7aS[8]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[13].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14].

    Sunspot numbers for December 7-13, 2017 were 11, 0, 0, 11, 13, 13, and 0, with a mean of 6.9. 10.7 cm flux was 67.9, 69.9, 71.1, 72, 72.3, 71.4, and 72.1, with a mean of 71. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 5, 4, 3, 10, 13, and 7, with a mean of 7.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 4, 3, 2, 8, 9, and 4, with a mean of 5.6.

     


    [1] http://www.solarham.net/regions/2691.htm
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [3] https://blog.scoutingmagazine.org/2017/12/12/northern-lights/
    [4] http://grammarist.com/spelling/hurdle-hurtle/
    [5] http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/contests/soapbox
    [7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KY0l83t1VL0
    [8] http://bit.ly/2kuX7aS
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Dec 23 00:05:37 2017
    12/22/2017

    During the recent reporting week (December 14-20) the first six days had zero sunspots. On December 20 one new sunspot group appeared (2692) with a sunspot number of 16. The average daily sunspot number decreased from 6.9 during the previous seven days to 2.3.

    Average solar flux increased from 71 to 71.5, average planetary A index went from 7.4 to 9.4, and maid-latitude A index increased from 5.5 to 6.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 75 on December 22-28, 74 on December 29 through January 1, 76 on January 2-5, 74 on January 6-13, 72 on January 14-19, 74 on January 20-28, 76 on January 29 through February 1, and 74 on February 2-4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 22-23, 5 on December 24-26, 10 and 8 on December 27-28, 5 on December 29-30, then 10, 25, 15 and 10 on December 31 through January 3, 5 on January 4-6, then 10, 12 and 8 on January 7-9, 5 on January 10-12, 22 on January 13-14, then 20, 16, 10 and 8 on January 15-18, 5 on January 19-22, 12 and 8 on January 23-24, 5 on January 25-26, then 10, 25, 15 and 10 on January 27-30, 5 on January 31 through February 2, 10 on February 3 and 12 on February 4.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 22 to January 17, 2018

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on December 23, 26, January 5-6, 11
    Mostly quiet on December 22, 24, 30, January 4, 10, 15
    Quiet to unsettled on December 25, January 7, 17
    Quiet to active on December 27-29, 31, January 2-3, 8-9, 12, 14, 16
    Active to disturbed on January 1, 13

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on December (24-28,) January 1-3, (6-8,) 10-13

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    Kent Trimble, K9ZTV of Jefferson City, Missouri helpfully pointed out that in last week's bulletin ARLP049 I wrote JT8 when I should have written FT8. That line should read "FT8 seems to have taken the amateur radio service by storm in recent months, with an amazing rate of acceptance due to its weak signal capabilities and easy implementation."

    Not sure I trust the source, but this article has a number of interesting references: http://bit.ly/2kxhgxN[1]

    The article mentions that in 2017 there have been 96 days (27 percent) with no sunspots, but as of this week that number is 101 days, or 28 percent, according to Spaceweather.com. The same list shows that in 2009, 71 percent of the year had no sunspots.

    Tamitha Skov posts great videos of her space weather predictions on YouTube, but they are usually after my weekly bulletin is posted. Check for her latest at: https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx[2]

    I like the descriptions of space weather phenomena in this article: http://bit.ly/2BQsBAq[3]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for December 14-20, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 16, with a mean of 2.3. 10.7 cm flux was 72.1, 71.7, 71.3, 71, 71.6, 68.8, and 74.2, with a mean of 71.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 4, 24, 17, 6, and 5, with a mean of 9.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 3, 16, 12, 4, and 3, with a mean of 6.1.

     


    [1] https://exchange.arrl.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=MdnF4fyqtqQqqFRi8sHLSx8dH3zgLaVplNX0J45kA_36vK2NbEnVCA..&amp;URL=http2f%2Fbit.ly%2F2kxhgxN
    [2] https://exchange.arrl.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=fMeDiyn17FEoMleJ8bYBWmJwxdyNA9RguPwKlm3poiD6vK2NbEnVCA..&amp;URL=https2f%2Fwww.youtube.com2fSpWxfx
    [3] https://exchange.arrl.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=stq-Ff0v10Qrm9l2fxHragpXmQ8iaOJBDecO7pwk1_36vK2NbEnVCA..&amp;URL=http2f%2Fbit.ly%2F2BQsBAq
    [4] https://exchange.arrl.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=L__vQ-m5rwagX_5W5wvSPcM-3oXBnazcd8UUQsH9IDj6vK2NbEnVCA..&amp;URL=http2f%2Farrl.org%2Fpropagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] https://exchange.arrl.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=w6ROj9tzMrWNpNUNjTccXN-ad5RDRkhBo0MTG7WSZE76vK2NbEnVCA..&amp;URL=http2f%2Farrl.org%2Fthe-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] https://exchange.arrl.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=hghgMqTZdTSqWUp2lmqT8plByPv7RymD9dHREKkBKcz6vK2NbEnVCA..&amp;URL=http2f%2Farrl.org%2Fw1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] https://exchange.arrl.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=bcG3nww8swTNoarABOfRfRmj0JhA56syFIMmUk5TVRP6vK2NbEnVCA..&amp;URL=http2f%2Fk9la.us%2F
    [8] https://exchange.arrl.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=HYLfdBFij3X4BEHdCD8ToVaRZEaZF_V3SDK_cVZ-Ci76vK2NbEnVCA..&amp;URL=http2f%2Farrl.org%2Fpropagation
    [9] https://exchange.arrl.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=kv1TlGweWVrOUjCcwSEWyiHC4T7oq1LmHRYqqbV93gT6vK2NbEnVCA..&amp;URL=http2f%2Farrl.org%2Fbulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 29 19:37:23 2017
    12/29/2017

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: There were no zero-sunspot days over the December 21-27 reporting week. Then, on Thursday, December 28, no sunspots were visible. So far in 2017, there have been 102 days with no sunspots, or 28%.

    The average daily sunspot number was 17.4, up from 2.3 over the previous 7-day reporting period. The previous week had such a low average because only 1 day out of that week had any sunspots at all - December 20, with a sunspot number of 16.

    The average daily solar flux was 74.6, up from 71.5 the previous week.

    The average daily planetary A index declined from 9.4 to 7.1, while the average mid-latitude A index dipped from 6.1 to 5.7.

    We probably will not observe a return of any sunspots at least until January 5, when the predicted solar flux is expected to increase slightly, from 68 to 72.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on December 29-31; 68 on January 1-4; 72 on January 5-12; 74 on January 13; 75 on January 14-25; 74 on January 26; 72 on January 27-February 8; 74 on February 9, and 75 on February 10-11.

    The predicted planetary A index is 5, 5, 10, 25, 15, and 8 on December 29-January 3; 5 on January 4-6; 10, 12, and 6 on January 7-9; 5 on January 10-12; then 22, 16, 20, 16, 10, 8, and 5 on January 13-19; 12 on January 20-21; 8 on January 22; 5 on January 23-26; 10, 25, 15, and 10 on January 27-30; 5 on January 31-February 2; 10, 12, and 6 on February 3-5; 5 on February 6-8, and 22, 16, and 6 on February 9-11.

    The geomagnetic activity forecast for December 29-January 24 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH: Geomagnetic field will be:


    o

    Quiet on December 30, January 5, 11, 17-18, 23-24


    o Mostly quiet on December 29, January 4, 6, 19,


    o Quiet to unsettled on January 7-8, 10, 16,


    o Quiet to active on December 31, January 2-3, 12, 14-15, 22


    o Active to disturbed on January 1, 9, (13, 20-21)


    o Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on December 31, January 1-3, (6-8,) 10-13, 19-20, (21-22).



    Figures in parentheses indicate a lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia (FM19ck), reported on December 22:

    "We had some excellent low-band conditions on the evenings of December 20-21 allowing QSOs with S01WS Western Sahara, Finland, Sweden, European Russia, Lithuania, Romania, and Ukraine on 160, with best signals mostly around 2400 and 0100. On 80, Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Greece, Poland, Hungary, Slovenia, and Romania were worked. Many signals on 80 were at least S-9, as were several on 160.

    "On December 22, 15 opened late to Europe, allowing a very solid S-9 QSO with EA7ATX at 1603 on 15 phone, followed by S-9 + 15 dB with MI5AFK in Northern Ireland. England and VO1CAL in Newfoundland were also worked on SSB and Hungary on CW. There could have been some sporadic E involved, not sure."

    Dr. Tamitha Skov is featured[1] in the first 2018 issue of Popular Science:

    Her report[2] from last weekend. The latest report[3] should be posted soon.

    For more information[4] concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at. Here is an explanation[5] of the numbers used in this bulletin. An archive[6] of past propagation bulletins is on the ARRL website. More information and tutorials[7] on propagation are on the website of Carl, K9LA. The ARRL website also offers monthly propagation charts[8] between four US regions and 12 overseas locations.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending e-mail distribution of ARRL bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for December 21-27, 2017 were 18, 18, 22, 22, 17, 14, and 11, with a mean of 17.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 76, 75.3, 76.2, 76.1, 75.7, 71.8, and 71, with a mean of 74.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 5, 12, 10, 11, and 7, with a mean of 7.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 4, 9, 9, 8, and 6, with a mean of 5.7.


    [1] https://www.popsci.com/space-weather-woman
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJnQvu0FZ-E
    [3] https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 12 20:20:22 2018
    01/12/2018

    Average daily sunspot number was 11.9 over the past reporting week (January 4-10, 2018) compared to zero (no sunspots) over the previous seven days. But average daily solar flux declined slightly, 70.4 to 69.9.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 5.1 to 5.4, and average mid-latitude A index changed from 3.4 to 4.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on January 12-21, 72 on January 22-27, 70 on January 28 to February 17, 72 on February 18-23, and 70 on February 24-25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 12, then 15, 12 and 8 on January 13-15, 5 on January 16-19, then 12, 10, 8 and 6 on January 20-23, 5 on January 24-27, 10 on January 28, 5 on January 29 through February 3, then 12, 8, 5 and 8 on February 4-7, 5 on February 8-9, then 10, 15 and 10 on February 10-12, 5 on February 13-15, then 12, 10, 8 and 6 on February 16-19, 5 on February 20-23, 10 on February 24, and 5 on February 25.

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 12 to February 7, 2018

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on January 19, 26, 31, February 7
    mostly quiet on January 18, 25, 30, February 3, 6
    quiet to unsettled on January 12, 15, 20, 24, 29, February 2, 5
    quiet to active on January 14, 16, 21, 23, 27-28, February 1, 4
    active to disturbed on January 13, (17,) 22

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
    on January 12-14, 19-20, (21-22, 28-31,
    February 1,) 5-6, (7)

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Current forecasts still is less reliable again.

    New Year's compliment-version for normal people: http://ok1hh.sweb.cz/PF2018HH_afj.JPG[1]

    Ham radio version: http://ok1hh.sweb.cz/PF2018HH_ahh.JPG[2]

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH
    (from Czech Propagation Interested Group compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since 1978).
    e-mail: ok1hh@rsys.cz[3] "

    Here is an article about a propagation mode I had not heard of, Equatorial Spread-F: http://bit.ly/2lYSaHO[4]

    Look at this. A pretty technical article about sunspots and temperature: http://bit.ly/2Ey9hb6[5]

    Let's look at recent appearances of sunspots, and sunspot area.

    If we look at recent sunspot numbers: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt[6]

    We see that new sunspots appeared on January 4, 8 and 11. (Check the New Regions column, fifth from the left).

    Also note in the fourth column, the "Sunspot Area 10E-6 Hemis" column.

    This shows the area of total observed sunspots on the visible sun, in millionths of a solar hemisphere. You can observe that the sunspot area began at 20 (10E-6 Hemis.) on the first day of the new sunspot group (on January 4). Note the same sunspot group contracted to half that area for at least the following week.

    You can check sunspot numbers, solar flux and sunspot area for 2017 at: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2017_DSD.txt[7]

    Check out this resource on sunspot area, from Peter Meadows: http://www.petermeadows.com/html/area.html#top[8]

    Note other resources from Peter: http://www.petermeadows.com/[9]

    Interesting site for a private/public observatory in the UAE: http://alsadeemastronomy.ae/[10]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[15].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16].

    Thanks to Don, AA2F/9, for checking my data averages.

    Sunspot numbers for January 4-10, 2018 were 13, 11, 11, 11, 13, 13, and 11, with a mean of 11.9. 10.7 cm flux was 69.5, 69.3, 69.4, 69.9, 70.3, 70.8, and 70.4, with a mean of 69.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 3, 9, 9, and 5, with a mean of 5.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 5, 2, 2, 9, 7, and 4, with a mean of 4.6.

     


    [1] http://ok1hh.sweb.cz/PF2018HH_afj.JPG
    [2] http://ok1hh.sweb.cz/PF2018HH_ahh.JPG
    [3] mailto:ok1hh@rsys.cz
    [4] http://bit.ly/2lYSaHO
    [5] http://bit.ly/2Ey9hb6
    [6] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [7] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2017_DSD.txt
    [8] http://www.petermeadows.com/html/area.html#top
    [9] http://www.petermeadows.com/
    [10] http://alsadeemastronomy.ae/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Jan 20 00:22:36 2018
    01/19/2018

    It was a quiet week in space weather (January 11-17) with zero sunspots over the weekend and geomagnetic indicators rising only slightly.

    Compared to last week, average daily sunspot numbers declined from 11.9 to 7, but average daily solar flux went from 69.9 to 70.7. Seems counter-intuitive that sunspot and solar flux would move in opposite directions, but these are all very low numbers anyway, and any change is slight. Also, there are no sunspot numbers between zero and 10 due to the arcane and somewhat confusing way they are counted. The number gets 10 points for each sunspot group, and one point for each sunspot in those groups. Therefor the minimum possible sunspot number if there is any sunspot activity is 11.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A index moving from 5.4 to 6.1, and mid-latitude A index from 4.6 to 4.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 71 on January 19-25, 72 on January 26-27, 70 on January 28 to February 17, 72 on February 18-23, and 70 on February 24 to March 4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15, 12, 12, 10 and 8 on January 19-24,  5 on January 25-27, 10 on January 28, 5 on January 29 to February 3, 8 on February 4-5, 5 on February 6-8, then 8, 12 and 10 on February 9-11, 5 on February 12-14, 20 on February 15-16, 18 and 12 on February 17-18, 5 on February 19-23, 10 on February 24, 5 on February 25 to March 2, and 8 on March 3-4.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 19 to February 14, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH and the Czech Propagation Interest Group.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on January 19, 30-31, February 3, 6-8
    Mostly quiet on February 2, 9
    Quiet to unsettled on January 23-27, 29, February 1
    Quiet to active on January 20-21, 28
    Active to disturbed on January 22, February (4-5, 10)

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
    on January 20-23, 28-31, February 5-6, (7, 9,) 10-12

    Remark:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Current forecasts are continuing to be less reliable."

    Interesting article about preserving a long running hand-drawn record of solar images: http://bit.ly/2DmPnUF[1]

    For the latest from Tamitha Skov see: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkXjdDQ-db0xz8f4PKgKsag[2]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for January 11-17, 2018 were 12, 0, 0, 0, 12, 13, and 12, with a mean of 7. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 70.9, 70.8, 70.5, 70.2, 71.1, and 70.9, with a mean of 70.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 4, 7, 14, 9, 4, and 3, with a mean of 6.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 7, 11, 7, 3, and 1, with a mean of 4.9.



     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2DmPnUF
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkXjdDQ-db0xz8f4PKgKsag
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Jan 27 00:32:03 2018
    01/26/2018

    Low solar activity continued over the past reporting week (January 18-24) with zero sunspots visible after January 19. Average daily sunspot number changed from 7 over the previous seven days to 3.3 this week. Average daily solar flux was down slightly from 70.7 to 70. Geomagnetic indicators were also quiet.

     

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on January 26 through February 16, 68 on February 17, 69 on February 18-19, 68 on February 20-26, and 70 on February 27 through March 11.

     

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 26-27, then 5, 8, 10 and 8 on January 28-31, 5 on February 1-3, 8 on February 4-5, 5 on February 6-8, then 8, 12 and 8 on February 9-11, 5 on February 12-14, then 8, 12, 8, 10, 10 and 8 on February 15-20, 5 on February 21-23, 10 on February 24, 5 on February 25 through March 2, 8 on March 3-4, 5 on March 5-7, then 8, 12, 8 and 5 on March 8-11.

     

    The OK1HH Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 26 to February 21, 2018.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on January 31, February 3, 6-8, 13-14

    Mostly quiet on February 2, 9, 15, 19

    Quiet to unsettled on January 26-27, 30, February 1, 12

    Quiet to active on January 28-29, February 4-5, 11, 16-18, 20

    Active to disturbed on February 10, 21

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on January 28-31, February 5-6, (7, 9,) 10-12, 16-18

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Current forecasts are continuing to be less reliable.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH

    Czech Propagation Interest Group

    Compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since 1978).

     

    Here is a graph of mode usage during 2017 compiled by ClubLog.org:  http://bit.ly/2DCPw2e[1]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

     

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

     

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

     

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

     

    Sunspot numbers for January 18-24, 2018 were 12, 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.3. 10.7 cm flux was 71.1, 70.8, 69.6, 68.3, 70.1, 70.5, and 69.9, with a mean of 70. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 8, 8, 10, 12, 4, and 9, with a mean of 7.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 6, 5, 8, 8, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5.3.

     

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/2DCPw2e
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 2 20:33:48 2018
    02/02/2018

    Low solar activity continues. There were no sunspots seen from January 20-29, and the sunspot number was 13 on January 30-31, but back to zero on February 1. Average daily solar flux declined marginally from 70 to 69.1.

     

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on February 2, 71 on February 3-8, 70 on February 9-22, 69 on February 23 to March 4, 70 on March 5-18.

     

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 2-3, 10 and 8 on February 4-5, 5 on February 6-8, then 8, 12 and 8 on February 9-11, 5 on February 12-14, then 8, 12, 8, 10, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on February 15-22, 5 on February 23 to March 2, 8 on March 3-4, 5 on March 5-7, then 8, 12 and 8 on March 8-10, 5 on March 11-13, then 8, 12, 8, 10 and 5 on March 14-18. 

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 2-28, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

     

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on February 2, 5-8, 12-14, 20

    Mostly quiet on February 3, 9, 17, 23, 25-27

    Quiet to unsettled on February 11, 16, 18-19, 21-22

    Quiet to active on February 4, 10, 15, 24, 28

    Active to disturbed-not anticipated

     

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on February 5-6, 9-12, 18-19, 27-28

     

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Regarding ongoing changes, current forecasts are even less reliable."

     

     

    Joe Flamini, W4BXJ, of White Hall, Virginia wrote on January 29, "So, I usually leave the 10-meter rig scanning in the shack, and it's usually quiet. So much so, in fact, that I forget it's there. Imagine my surprise to hear a couple of amateurs in New Zealand talking mobile-to-mobile at about 1500 GMT on January 27. I reached out and had a 45-second QSO with them both before the link faded. That'll never happen again!"

     

    I checked back with Joe, and he told me it all happened so fast he didn't log their call signs, but they were both mobile in the Christchurch area, and I estimate the short path distance at about 8,800 miles.

     

    The latest from Tamitha Skov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG9cMZnTp1Y[1]

     

     

    Jeff Hartley, N8II, of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote on February 1: "The solar indices have been remarkably very similar day to day in January with K index seldom above 2, often 0 and SFI running 69-71. There are other factors that influence signal strength on 80 meters and even more so on 160 meters night to night.

     

    "During the CQWW 160-meter contest last weekend, I missed the best hours to Europe around the European sunrise the first night, but signals did seem down considerably from 2300Z-0240Z when I operated and the second night was even worse, about as poor as winter conditions ever get on the path to Europe.

     

    "There were loud west-coast signals around sunrise Saturday morning with two strong callers from British Columbia and a good signal from KH7M in Hawaii.

     

    "The second night ZC4A (British bases on Cypress), was calling CQ on my run frequency and they apparently could not hear me at all. Sunday night after the contest ended ZC4A was 579!

     

    "It was not until several nights later that I was able to complete a QSO on their last night of operation. I also worked them on 80 meters, both modes, 40 meters, both modes, on January 26 (not very loud when worked there) and on 30-meter CW where they were barely readable at 0541Z.

     

    "Signals on 80 were quite a bit louder than the other bands. Forty meters seems to be improving to Europe with some southern European stations still having decent signals well into our evening.

     

    "I have added quite a few band countries on the low bands lately (log started Jan 2017). On the 26th, on 80-meter CW, I worked TG9ADM Guatemala, CP4BT in Bolivia (quite rare on that band), and less rare, but more distant, RI50ANO on the South Shetland Islands near Antarctica.

     

    "I also have logged Alex, RI50ANO, on 40-meter phone and CW. By far the hardest-to-work DX recently was last night, February 1st, when worked UN9L in Kazakhstan on 80-meter CW. He was weak, but readable, and heard me right away, but it took several tries to get my call through.

     

    "Over the last two months, I have checked the DX cluster for reports of him on 80 meters, only to hear nothing. The slightly increased daylight near the North Pole seems to be improving conditions as of about January 20. Fifteen meters has been essentially dead, even to Africa, on many days, but today I snagged C81G off the coast of Mozambique on CW and EA6VQ in the Balearic Islands was S9+ from 1615-1650Z. Even 17 meters is closed or very marginal to Europe on most days due to the low solar flux.

     

    "The big DXCC news is the addition of Kosovo (Z6) to the DXCC list effective January 21st. The Z60A club station has a good signal on 20 meters every day. I logged them easily on the 21st on 20 CW, and later 20-meter SSB and 80-meter CW. They seem to have a high noise level at their location on the low bands."

     

    David Moore sent this link about stellar magnetism: http://bit.ly/2DV4Abz[2]

     

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

     

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

     

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

     

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

     

    Sunspot numbers for January 25-31, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13, and 13, with a mean of 3.7. 10.7 cm flux was 70.3, 69.8, 68.8, 68.5, 68.2, 68.9, and 69.2, with a mean of 69.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 6, 4, 4, 5, and 7, with a mean of 6.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 7, 5, 2, 3, 3, and 5, with a mean of 4.9.

     

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG9cMZnTp1Y
    [2] http://bit.ly/2DV4Abz
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 9 19:35:11 2018
    02/09/2018

    Compared to the previous seven days, solar activity increased in the first week of February. There were two days with no sunspots, February 1 and 3. On February 2 a new sunspot region emerged, but by the next day it had disappeared. Another sunspot region appeared on February 4, and the area it covered on February 4-7 was 80, 130, 160 and 200 millionths of the solar hemisphere.

    We haven't seen as much coverage since October 7, 2017 when the total sunspot area was 220 millionths of the solar hemisphere and the sunspot number was 11, the minimum non-zero sunspot number.

    A dozen days prior on September 25 the sunspot number was 36 and the total sunspot area (as always, expressed in millionths of a solar hemisphere) was 560.

    You can see that already the sunspot numbers and solar flux have dropped since last year: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2017_DSD.txt[1]

    As a reference, you can compare these numbers with the peak of the current cycle in 2014: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2014_DSD.txt[2]

    Note the year contained in the above two URLs. You can edit that to look at any year, back to 1994.

    You can look here to see graphs of sunspot and solar flux activity, and see what the daily numbers were for the previous peak and minima: http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/[3]

    So last week the average daily sunspot number increased from 3.7 (at the end of January) to 10.3 and average solar flux from 69.1 to 72.5. Average planetary A index decreased modestly from 6.3 to 4.4, while average mid-latitude A index (measured at one location, in Virginia) decreased from 4.9 to 3.6.

    The heightened activity should continue over the next week. Predicted solar flux is 78 on February 9-10, 76 on February 11-12, 74 on February 13-14, 72 on February 15-16, 70 on February 17-22, 69 on February 23-28, 70 and 71 on March 1-2, 72 on March 3-14, 71 on March 15, 70 on March 16-21, and 69 on March 22-25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 9, 5 on February 10-16, then 8, 10, 5, 8, 10, and 8 on February 17-22, 5 on February 23 through March 13, then 8, 12, 8, 10, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on March 14-21 and 5 on March 22-25.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 9-March 8, 2018.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on February 12-14, 20
    Mostly quiet on February 17, 23, 25-27, March 1-3, 5-8
    Quiet to unsettled on February 11, 15, 18-19, 21-22, 24, 28
    Quiet to active on February 9-10, 16, March 4
    Active to disturbed-not anticipated

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on February 5-6, 9-12, 18-19, 27-28"

    Al Kaiser, N1API of Meriden, Connecticut sent a report on Sunday, February 4:

    "During the 10-10 QSO Party on Sunday February 4 we had what was probably a nice Sporadic E opening that started with NC about 1507 UTC, then nothing until TN on 1704 which quickly changed to solid signals from OH, IL, IN, AND MI.  By about 1822 it was all over. 10 meters always has some surprises in store."

    Jeff, N8II, reported from West Virginia on February 8: "This week, there is very little good news of improved openings on 17 meters (a bit better than a week ago), or 15 meters so far despite the considerably higher SFI.

    "But, all of the low bands, including 160 meters, seem better thanks to more ionosphere. Tonight, February 9 UTC, I worked A45XR (Oman) on my first call on 80-meter CW at 0053Z. He had an S8 signal. Later, I logged Denmark and Slovenia with good signals. I also logged Z61DX Kosovo, on 17-meter CW at 1540Z today, February 8, for a new band country, and Z60A was S9 on 40-meter CW tonight, but there were too many calling for me to get through. There were many S9+ Europeans on 20-meters this morning, much better signals than a month ago."

    A new space weather video from Dr. Skov: http://bit.ly/2EtXBtz[4]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for February 1-7, 2018 were 0, 11, 0, 11, 13, 17, and 20, with a mean of 10.3. 10.7 cm flux was 69, 68.8, 69.2, 73, 74, 76.9, and 76.6, with a mean of 72.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 3, 8, 5, and 4, with a mean of 4.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 2, 3, 8, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.6.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2017_DSD.txt
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2014_DSD.txt
    [3] http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/
    [4] http://bit.ly/2EtXBtz
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 16 20:40:38 2018
    02/16/2018

    Solar activity increased over the last reporting week (February 8-14). Average daily sunspot number rose from 10.3 to 24, while average daily solar flux increased from 72.5 to 77.4. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average planetary A index changing from 4.4 to 4.1, and average mid-latitude A index going from 3.6 to 3.

     

    Predicted solar flux is 71, 70 and 69 on February 16-18, 68 on February 19-22, 69 on February 23-28, 72 on March 1, 75 on March 2-3, 78 on March 4-13, 76 on March 14-15, 72 on March 16, 70 on March 17-21, 69 on March 22-27, 72 on March 28, 75 on March 29-30, and 78 on March 31 and April 1.

     

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 12, 10 and 8 on February 16-19, 5 on February 20 through March 3, 8 on March 4, 5 on March 5-13, then 8, 15, 12, 10, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on March 14-21, 5 on March 22-30, 8 on March 31 and 5 on April 1.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast from F.K. Janda, OK1HH for the period February 16 until March 15, 2018.

     

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on February 26, March 10

    Mostly quiet on February 19, 24-25, March 1-3, 11-13

    Quiet to unsettled on February 20-23, March 5-8, 14

    Quiet to active on February 17, 27-28, March 9, 15

    Active to disturbed on February 16, (18, March 4)

     Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on February 19, further development cannot be predicted.

     Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

     

      

    A new space weather video from Dr. Tamitha Skov dated February 15: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbNqLCY1rUk[1]

     

    February 4 was the last day that a new sunspot appeared. Before that February 2 and January 30 each showed a new spot. The most recent day with no sunspots was February 3.

     

    The ARRL International DX CW Contest is this weekend. See http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[2] for details.

     

    Jeff, N8II reports from West Virginia: "There has not been much happening on 15 meters again this week; very little heard from Africa or Europe. I did work EA8/DK6TR in the Canary Islands on 15-meter CW at 1548Z and South America was loud when I returned from antenna work and major rope tangle on the spool (it took more than an hour to free 90 feet of rope!).

     

    "Fred, K6IJ/KH6, operating from big station KH6LC, was about S8 at 2145Z on 15-meter phone. I have been running a DXCC band/mode chase since last January and now have 64 countries on 160-meter CW, 90 on 80-meter CW, a surprising 92 on 30-meter CW (activity quite poor), 162 on 20-meter CW (and 142 on 20-meter phone), and despite awful conditions, last year provided 36 countries on 10-meter CW and 31 on 10-meter phone. Today, February 15, I added 8P9NX in Barbados on 80- and 160-meter CW, CU2DX in the Azores on 160-meter CW, JY4CI on 30-meter CW, MW0YDK in Wales and Z60A in Kosovo on 17-meter CW, C5DX in The Gambia on 17-meter CW, ER3MM on 20-meter CW, and J62P/39 on St Lucia on 20-meter phone. It was a very good day!

     

    "Last night, February 14, I added CN2DF in Morocco and CT8/R7KW in the Azores on 80-meter CW, and GW3YDX on 160-meter CW. Then, after 2400Z, I worked J6/KG9N on St Lucia and LA5HE in Norway on 160-meter CW at 0058Z, and KP4EE at 0230Z on 40-meter CW. I was not very tired at 0430Z, so I went to the shack and worked 160-meter CW, finding OH2BO in Finland with a booming signal. Then, I decided to try CQs with my not-so-mighty 200W. There were no answers after 3 tries, so I spotted myself on the DX Cluster and started the best run of Europeans I have ever had on 160!

     

    "I was called by YU4DX, in Serbia, RA2FV in Kaliningrad, two 3-area Russians as well as Germany, Sweden, Greece, Finland and Latvia. All were excellent copy except for RD3R. Then, I added two more new ones on 160-meter CW: V31YN in Belize and EU7A in Belarus.

     

    "Conditions on 20-meters are very good to Europe every day with Russia fading out by 1500Z and not much left after 1800Z with many west-coast-to-Europe QSOs observed.

     

    "The long path to Australia on 20 meters is in from around 2000-2200Z, but with poor activity. Seventeen meters is open to somewhere in Europe almost every day, but signals are weak and activity is low. In the PACC Dutch contest last Saturday, the low bands were down from normal. However, I still managed two Dutch contacts on 160 meters, 22 contacts on 80 meters, and 31 contacts 40 meters."

     

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI, of Dixon, California wrote on February 9: "I was out in my kayak today trying out a new home-built antenna tuner and 10 W with my Elecraft KX3 transceiver. The antenna was an end-fed half-wave wire vertical cut for 20 meters. Before I packed up and paddled the couple of miles back to dock (near Suisun, California), I thought I'd try for one contact. Seventeen meters was dead, so I went down to 20-meter CW. I answered a Japanese CQ and got him immediately with a 439-signal report. I gave him a 529. He was using a 3-element Yagi antenna. It is refreshing to know one can still get QRP DX despite underwhelming solar flux."

     

    Bob Kile, W7RH, of Las Vegas, Nevada wrote: "I'm looking for some archived Aurora Forecast Ovation-Prime model images from solar cycle 23 solar minimum. I'm interested in how much tilt in North America the auroral ring shows as a result of geomagnetic pole shift. Can you point me in the right direction? NASA doesn't have anything like this in their public archive."

     

    Can anyone help? You can reach Bob via his email address on his QRZ.com listing.

     

     For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

     

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

     

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

     

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

     

    Sunspot numbers for February 8-14, 2018 were 22, 23, 35, 24, 26, 20, and 18, with a mean of 24. 10.7 cm flux was 77.5, 78.1, 78.2, 78.2, 78.6, 75.9, and 75.3, with a mean of 77.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 7, 3, 4, 3, and 3, with a mean of 4.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 7, 2, 3, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3.

     

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbNqLCY1rUk
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 23 17:44:04 2018
    02/23/2018

    Average daily sunspot number dropped from 24 during the previous seven days, to 5.6 in the current reporting week, February 15-21. That average is so low because no sunspots have been seen since February 17, and no new sunspot regions were observed since February 4. Average daily solar flux dropped to 70.1 in the current period from 77.4 in the previous week.

     

    Based on the latest 45-day prediction for solar flux, I expect sunspots to re-appear by March 2 or 3, when solar flux is expected to increase suddenly.

     

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on February 23 to March 1, 69 on March 2, 76 on March 3-12, 74 on March 13-14, 72 on March 15, 70 on March 16-25, 72 and 74 on March 26-27, and 76 on March 28 through April 8.

     

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 23-25, then 12, 16 and 8 on February 26-28, 5 on March 1-3, 8 on March 4, 5 on March 5-13, then 10, 8, 12, 16, 14 and 12 on March 14-19, 8 on March 20-22, 5 on March 23-30, 8 on March 31 and 5 on April 1-8.

     

     

    Greg Andracke, TI7/W2BEE, wrote from Costa Rica, where he is vacationing: "Now on the air with a 124.5-foot sloper antenna. I am working CW only when not in the pool! I will be in Playa Garza, Guanacaste, Costa Rica until about March 15. If anyone needs a CW contact, e-mail me at: w2bee@arrl.net[1]. I'm not running pileups; just chatting with folks. Made only a few contacts during ARRL International DX contest because I couldn't get antenna installed until about 3 hours before the competition was over."


    Greg has a fascinating career filming documentaries.
    See http://andracke.com/[2].

     

    A new space weather video from Dr. Tamitha Skov last week: http://bit.ly/2okw04M[3]

     

     

    Paul Gray, N0JAA, of Melbourne, Florida wrote: "Late winter/early spring is generally the time of year in Florida when we typically experience tropospheric ducting. his year is no exception. I have experienced a good amount of ducting on 2-meters so far. I don't have sideband capability on that band currently, so my experience is limited to FM repeaters and simplex. On 2 meters through 70 centimeters, tropospheric ducting in Florida occurs mostly in the late evening and overnight hours. The 6-meter band, at least in my experience, does not appear to be significantly affected by tropospheric ducting. 

     

    "Over the last week or so, I have been receiving a distant repeater on my club's repeater frequency of 146.610 MHz (W4MLB) in Melbourne. I have been able to receive and, after a fashion, carry on contacts with, several stations on the K4GSO repeater. The trick is to let each repeater drop before responding, but it can be done. Considering that 2 meters is basically line of sight, plus or minus a few miles beyond the horizon, and the distance between Melbourne and Ocala is approximately 150 miles, this is a good feat, especially with a 5-W handheld transceiver and a 1/2-wave mag-mount antenna! I would consider this DX on 2 meters."

     

     

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 23 to March 20, 2018 by F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

     

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on February 25-26, March 1, 6, 10, 12-13, 19-20,

    Mostly quiet on February 27, March 2, 7, 11,

    Quiet to unsettled on February 23-24, March 3, 5, 8, 15-16,

    Quiet to active on February 28, March 4, 9, 17-18,

    Active to disturbed on March 14.

     

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes cannot be predicted for the period until March 10, but I do not expect any significant upsurge. Then solar wind will intensify on March 18-20.

     

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts remain less reliable, especially in the first half of March."

     

     

    Tomas Hood, NW7US, who edits the Propagation column in CQ was interviewed by Eric Guth, 4Z1UG, for Eric's podcast QSO Today: https://www.qsotoday.com/podcasts/nw7us[4]

     

    If you change the end of the URL from nw7us to k7ra, you'll hear me being interviewed about two years ago.




    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

     

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

     

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

     

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

     

    Sunspot numbers for February 15-21, 2018 were 15, 12, 12, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 5.6. 10.7 cm flux was 72.5, 71.5, 69, 70.3, 69.1, 70.5, and 67.6, with a mean of 70.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 7, 12, 14, 17, 5, and 4, with a mean of 10. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 7, 10, 14, 11, 3, and 3, with a mean of 7.7.

     

     


    [1] mailto:w2bee@arrl.net
    [2] http://andracke.com/
    [3] http://bit.ly/2okw04M
    [4] https://www.qsotoday.com/podcasts/nw7us
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 2 16:51:46 2018
    03/02/2018

    We've seen many days with no sunspots over the past year, especially in more recent times. Periods with more than three days of blank sun include January 4-11, 2017, March 6-20, 2017, May 9-15, 2017, June 9-12, July 18-24, October 8-14, October 16-20, November 1-13, November 19-24, December 1-5, December 13-19, December 28, 2017 through January 3, 2018, January 20-29, 2018, and February 18-25. Sunspots have been visible every day, starting on February 26.

     

    This reporting week (February 22-28) the average daily sunspot number was 6, up slightly from 5.6 over the previous seven days.  Average daily solar flux declined from 70.1 to 68.3.

     

    Average planetary A index, a geomagnetic indicator calculated from values measured at multiple magnetometers around the world, rose marginally from 10 to 10.4, and mid-latitude A index which is measured by a single magnetometer on Wallops Island, Virginia changed from 7.7 to 7.4. All these values are moderate, or quiet. The most active day was February 27, when planetary A index was 19 and the mid-latitude A index was 14. 

     

    Spaceweather.com reports that Earth is exiting a solar wind stream which produced brief G-1 class geomagnetic storms (see February 27 in the previous paragraph). NOAA says (according to Spaceweather.com) that the chance of additional storms is 25 percent on March 1, declining to 15 percent on March 2. A new solar wind could appear on March 3.

     

    How does this prediction figure from other sources?

     

    From the NOAA 45-day forecast on March 1, predicted planetary A index is 7 on March 2, 5 on March 3-5, 8 on March 6, 5 on March 7-13, then 10, 8, 12, 15 and 18 on March 14-18, 5 on March 19-20, then 12, 15, 10, 8, 24, and 12 on March 21-26, then 5 on March 27 through April 9, then 10, 8, 12, 15 and 18 on April 10-14 and 5 on April 15.

     

    So, if any solar wind appears by March 3, the only correlation with the NOAA 45-day forecast would be the brief rise in planetary A index to 8 on March 6.

     

    You can read daily updates of the NOAA forecast every afternoon (USA time)
    at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[1] .

     

    Predicted solar flux from the same 45-day forecast is 68 and 70 on March 2-3, and 72 on March 4-8, then 73, 75, 76, 77, 75, 72, and 70 on March 9-15, 68 on March 16-26, then 70 and 75 on March 27-28, then 78 on March 29 through April 8, then 75, 72 and 70 on April 9-11, and 68 on April 12-15.

      

    Here is a quote from an excellent article on solar activity from Forbes magazine:

     

    "Solar flares, intense bursts of radiation and light emitted from the Sun, are usually followed by a coronal mass ejection, which is a massive amount of solar material and the magnetic field energy being blown into space. Both phenomena can be dangerous under the right conditions. They can cause radiation poisoning, damage electronics on Earth and in orbit, and they can be a serious threat to the safety of astronauts. To better understand solar flares and CMEs, NASA created the Solar Dynamics Observatory to constantly watch the Sun. Launched back in 2010 the SDO is equipped with a suite of instruments that observe ultraviolet light, Doppler shifts, magnetic fields and more. In 2014, they were watching a large sunspot group in hopes of seeing an eruption, but it never happened and now three and a half years later, they think they know why.

     

    "Back on October 24, 2014, they were keeping an eye on a sunspot group the size of Jupiter known as Active Region 12192. This complex grouping of magnetic fields was pegged as a site that had a high potential for solar activity and was the largest grouping of the last two solar cycles. The region did produce an x-class flare but never produced a CME, which usually follows a flare. Scientists wanted to know why so they looked at the data and found that there was a battle between two magnetic structures that ended up containing the eruption. The structures are being referred to as a twisted magnetic rope and a dense magnetic cage. The magnetic rope built up energy in the sunspot region and became unstable. It was able to lash through part of the magnetic cage and trigger a solar flare but in the end, it was not strong enough to break through the cage entirely and cause an eruption. This event has given scientists a wonderful opportunity to learn more about the Sun and how these events work. The data collected by SDO will be invaluable in expanding our knowledge of the Sun."

     

    Read the entire article here: http://bit.ly/2FITwQo[2]

     

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for March 2-27, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

     

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on March 3, 6-7, 10, 12-13, 20

    Mostly quiet on March 11

    Quiet to unsettled on March 2, 5, 19, 23-24, 27

    Quiet to active on March 4, 8-9, 14-16, 21-22, 25

    Active to disturbed on March 17-19, 26

     

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes: cannot be predicted for the period before March 10, but I do not expect any significant upsurge. Then solar wind will intensify on March (10,) 16-18, (19-20, 25-26).

     

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Regarding ongoing changes, current forecasts remain less reliable especially in the first half of March."

     

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH

     

    Don't forget, the ARRL International SSB DX Contest is this weekend.
    See http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[3] .

     

    The March 1 report from Tamitha Skov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNs7oEQZEEQ[4]

     

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

     

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

     

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

     

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

     

    Sunspot numbers for February 22-28, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 16, 15, and 11, with a mean of 6. 10.7 cm flux was 68.4, 67.6, 68.2, 67.2, 69.8, 67.9, and 68.8, with a mean of 68.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 16, 9, 4, 7, 19, and 7, with a mean of 10.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 11, 6, 2, 6, 14, and 4, with a mean of 7.4.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [2] http://bit.ly/2FITwQo
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
    [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNs7oEQZEEQ
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 9 22:57:37 2018
    03/09/2018

    Only one day (March 2) showed any sunspot activity over the past reporting week, with a daily sunspot number of 11 so average daily sunspot activity declined from 6 to 1.6. Average daily solar flux went from 68.3 to 67.6.

     

    No sunspots have been seen since March 2.

     

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average planetary A index dropping from 10.4 to 5.1, and mid-latitude A index from 7.4 to 4.6.

     

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on March 9-15, 70 on March 16, 72 on March 17-29, 70 on March 30, 68 on March 31 through April 11, 70 on April 12, and 72 on April 13-22.

     

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 10 on March 9-10, 5 on March 11-16, then 15 and 18 on March 17-18, 5 on March 19-20, then 12, 18, 10, 5, 8 and 20 on March 21-26, 5 on March 27-29, 8 on March 30-31, then 5 on April 1-3, 8 on April 4-5, 5 on April 6-9, then 10, 12, 12, 15 and 18 on April 10-14, 5 on April 15-16, then 12, 18, 10, 8, 5 and 20 on April 17-22.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 9 to April 3, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on March 12-13, 20, 29, April 1-2

    Mostly quiet on March 9, 19, 24, 28, 30-31, April 3

    Quiet to unsettled on March 10-11, 14-15, 19, 23, 25, 27

    Quiet to active on March 16, 21-22

    Active to disturbed on March 17-18, 26

    Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes cannot be predicted for the period before March 10, but I do not expect any significant upsurge.

    Then solar wind will intensify on March (10,) 16-18, (19-20, 25-26, April 3).

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts remain less reliable especially in the first half of March."

     

     

    Regular contributor David Moore shared this Science Daily article with us concerning how magnetic waves heat the Sun's atmosphere and propel solar wind: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180306093302.htm[1]

     

    From Jon Jones, N0JK: "I went out fixed/mobile on 10 meters early Sunday afternoon around 1900z March 4 in the ARRL DX SSB from eastern Kansas. I used a 1/4 wave whip antenna with 5 watts. I didn't expect much on 10 meters with the SFI of only 68, but was pleasantly surprised with good conditions on 10.

     

    "Sometimes the solar flux numbers don't correlate well to the actual ionization. As it turned out, there was both TEP to deep South America and one-hop F2 skip to the Caribbean and northern South America. PJ4G, FM5AN and 8P5A were up to an honest 40 dB over S-9! Skip zones were very evident with others closer or further away much weaker. 

     

    "I saw Hawaii spotted to the west coast, but no copy here. K6IJ in northern California said the Hawaiian stations were very loud. The shortest F2 heard was C6. Kudos to PZ5K for pulling my weak signal out of the noise. I ended up with 14 contacts in 11 countries."

     

    Jon sent this on March 8: "Along with improved conditions on 10 meters March 4 in the ARRL DX SSB contest, on March 8 six meters opened for afternoon TEP across the geomagnetic equator between the Caribbean, Central America to deep South America starting around 2200z. Contacts were made using CW, SSB and the new FT8 digital mode. The SFI was 67, SSN = 0, K = 1.

     

    "Some 6-meter DX cluster spots on March 8:

    TI5/N5BEK    2256Z  50313.0 9 dB FT8                         CX9AU     

    HI8PLE       2249Z  50313.0 FT8 -03 in GF05rk               LW2DAF    

    ZF1EJ        2248Z  50313.0 FT8 -01 in GF05rk               LW2DAF    

    HH2AA        2248Z  50130.0 Now in SSB calling           CX9AU     

    NP2Q         2248Z  50313.0 FT8 -12 IN GF05rk               LW2DAF    

    KP4S         2247Z  50110.0                                 LU4EFC    

    HH2AA        2246Z  50313.0 -10db in GF05rk                 LW2DAF    

    WP4CQ        2244Z  50110.0 Gracias x QSO!                  LU4EFC    

    HH2AA        2241Z  50103.0 tnx fer QSO..! 73               LU5DF     

    WP4CQ        2241Z  50101.0 tnx fer qso and 579 73          CX9AU       

    HH2AA        2232Z  50101.0 Now go to cw 50101              CX9AU     

    YS1AG/B      2227Z  50022.0 529                             LU5DF     

    HH2AA        2226Z  50313.0 tnx 73 Dan                      CX9AU     

    WP4CQ        2222Z  50110.0 55 IN GF05rk                    LW2DAF    

    OA4B/B       2218Z  50036.3 539                             LU5DF     

    HH2AA        2217Z  50313.0 FT8                             LU1DKC    

    HI8PLE       2215Z  50125.0 59 gracias Edgar                CX9AU       

    HI8PLE       2214Z  50125.0 S8 in GF05rk                    LW2DAF    

    HI8PLE       2212Z  50110.0 Gracias x QSO!                  LU4EFC    

    NP4BM        2211Z  50115.0 S8 in GF05rk                    LW2DAF    

    LU4EFC       2210Z  50110.0                                 HI8PLE         

    NP4BM        2208Z  50115.0 Gracias Victor 59 tambien       CX9AU        

    NP4BM        2204Z  50110.0 55 Gracias Victor, 73           LU5DF         

    NP4BM        2202Z  50110.0 CQ 59                           LW3EX"

     

     

    This week I am not sure what Dr. Skov means by "solar storms." At least I don't see any geomagnetic effects, since January 27: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-geomagnetic-indices.txt[2]

     

    A message from Dr. Skov: "This week finds me knee-deep leading the Space Weather Certification Committee for the American Meteorological Society. We've made some real headway this week and I wanted to share the good news. The committee has decided to focus its efforts on establishing a broadcast certification for getting information out to the public, instead of going for a science-related, but more technical consulting certification for industry. This means we put YOU first! 

     

    "I couldn't be more thrilled with this decision. We are now free to concentrate on finding ways to train meteorologists and give them the tools they need to bring Space Weather into our living rooms. I have you to thank for keeping me honest and inspired as we continue building the future. We still have a long way to go, but today it feels like we are one step closer to the Sun.

     

    "This week's forecast finds Amateur Radio operators disappointed at the dimming of old region 2699. We had hoped it would stay bright and boost the solar flux, but instead it has retreated underneath the surface of the Sun. This means HF radio propagation remains poor. As a consolation, the Sun has launched several solar storms, including one that is Earth-directed. 

     

    "Along with some fast wind we are expecting over the next few days, this could bump us up to storm levels and bring us some more aurora, especially at high latitudes.

     

    Cheers, Tamitha"

      

    See Dr. Skov's latest video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPrusKlVV-M[3]

     

      

     For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

     

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

     

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

     

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

     

    Sunspot numbers for March 1 through 7, 2018 were 0, 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.6. 10.7 cm flux was 67.2, 67.8, 67.8, 67.5, 67.6, 67.6, and 67.8, with a mean of 67.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 6, 6, 5, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 5, 7, 5, 4, and 3, with a mean of 4.6.

     

     


    [1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180306093302.htm
    [2] http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-geomagnetic-indices.txt
    [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPrusKlVV-M
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 16 20:13:57 2018
    03/16/2018

    No sunspots were observed between March 2 and March 15. One sunspot made a brief appearance on March 2, after a blank sun on March 1. Average daily sunspot number dropped from 1.6 to zero this week, and average daily solar flux rose fractionally from 67.6 to 67.7. We'll be watching the latest sunspot appearance to see if it is as fleeting as the March 2 sunspot.

    Geomagnetic indicators rose slightly, with planetary A index increasing from 5.1 to 7.1, and mid-latitude A index rose from 4.6 to 5.7.

    Predicted solar flux is 69 on March 16-23, 72 on March 24-29, 70 on March 30, 68 on March 31 through April 11, 70 on April 12, 72 on April 13-25, 70 on April 26, and 68 on April 27-29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15 on March 16-18, 10 on March 19, 5 on March 20-22, then 8, 5, 8 and 20 on March 23-26, 5 on March 27-29, 8 on March 30-31, 5 on April 1-9, then 8, 10, 14, 16 and 20 on April 10-14, 5 on April 15-16, then 12, 18, 10, 5, 8 and 20 on April 17-22, then 5 on April 23-25, 8 on April 26-27, and 5 on April 28-29.

     

     

    Carl Luetzelshwab, K9LA, has a comment about solar flux and an observation from N0JK in last week's bulletin ARLP010:

     "Jon Jones, N0JK said 'Sometimes the solar flux numbers don't correlate well to the actual ionization.'

     "What Jon said is more the norm than the exception, as solar radiation is not the only factor that contributes to the amount of ionization at any given location. There are two other factors. One is geomagnetic field activity (the K index), which can modify the amount of ionization. The other is an event in the lower atmosphere that couples up to the ionosphere, which also can modify the amount of ionization and which is a very hot topic with researchers nowadays.

    "The bottom line is if today's solar flux is higher than yesterday's, it does not necessarily mean that the ionosphere is better today - it could be worse. The result of all of this is that we have monthly median propagation predictions (they are statistical over a month's time frame), not daily propagation predictions."

     

     

    This in from Tamitha Skov on early Thursday in a message titled "Solarstorm Mania all over the News:"

    "How ironic is it that only one week after I talk about significant advances towards making Space Weather a household name, we get smacked in the face with a bogus story about a massive solar storm threatening to swallow the Earth?  From what I've heard, this story began innocently enough-- someone misread an info-graphic on a Russian space weather website. But then the mistake went viral. Over the past few days, reports spread around the globe, sending people into a panic. I've watched major news agencies publish the story, only to print embarrassing retractions a day later. All of this simply because they ran with a story they did not have the expertise to fact check.  I hate to admit it, but just as I thought we were doing so well, I am reminded of how far we have yet to go.

    "This week our Sun is indeed sending us a solar storm, but it's not all fire and brimstone. It's the weak, wispy kind we continue to expect as we approach solar minimum. The fact that the storm is weak actually brings us some good news. For amateur radio operators and emergency communicators already wrestling with poor radio propagation conditions on Earth's day side, communications might improve on Earth's night side, especially with auroral propagation. GPS users should also enjoy the quiet conditions, but be aware for glitches, especially after sunset and at higher latitudes where aurora is active. As for aurora sightings during this weak storm, reports are coming in from Norway, Sweden, and Finland as well as from Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan Canada. In the U.S.A. aurora has been sighted as far south as Michigan and Minnesota.

    "While these solar storm effects are surely noteworthy, they are hardly catastrophic or even massive. So as far as all the hype?  I think we can safely put that story to bed." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-DK43Rx0Xo[1]

     

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 16 to Apr 10, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

     "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on March 20, 24, 28-29, April 1-2, 4-9

    Mostly quiet on March 21, 30-31, April 3

    Quiet to unsettled on March 19, 22-23, 25, 27

    Quiet to active on March 16-18

    Active to disturbed on March 26

    Solar wind will intensify on March 16-18, (19-20, 25-26, April 3-?).

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

     

     

    This is from Jeff, N8II, from West Virginia on March 15: "There probably are a record number of DXpeditions to the 'Ts' and other countries from Africa, so named because several of the African countries that begin with T (former French) were some of the rarest countries.

    "Today on 15 meters TN5R in the Congo Republic, TY7C in Benin, and TJ2TT in Cameroon were all operating 15-meter phone at the same time as were the returning Lithuanians on Annobon Island, 3C0W. I worked Annobon, failed to get Cameroon, and had already worked the other two. In addition, on 15-meter phone were 5V7SM in Togo (worked) and 9X9PS from Rwanda. That's quite a line up!

    "At times, signals from Africa have been totally unreadable or very weak on 15-meters, but the solar wind picked up today raising the MUF despite nearly identical SFI (69 today) compared to other days this week.

    "Also, an expedition to PJ5 that was unreadable on 15-meter CW the past 2 days, was S9 at 1400Z today. The best signals for the most part from Africa were in the 1400Z hour also, except for Annobon who was louder around 1600Z. I have logged the Benin and Congo groups on several bands, including 80 meters, but the MUF has been too low to hear any of them on 12 or 10 meters. The only rare DX worked this week on 12 meters was XR0YD on Easter Island, on CW, who has also been logged on 80 through 15 meters.

    "Conditions on 80 meters are considerably worse than in December and January, but good enough to still work some of the DXpeditions. Signals on 160 meters have been very weak, but 40 and 30 meters have improved as the nighttime MUF has risen due to seasonal changes. I finally logged Annobon on 30 meters today after quite a bit of calling during which they were good copy to loud, but running many Japanese and European stations. I would guess their 30-meter JA/USA QSO ratio was at least 25 to 1 up until today when they were S9 at 2000Z (my sunset is 2318Z), which was louder than yesterday. So, obviously, they had a very good path to Japan for several hours, from before the Japanese sunrise until way after their local sunrise in Europe.

    "Twenty meters continues to be my best band for DX by far. For example, I logged A5A in Bhutan around 1500Z on CW today. Signals from Europe are generally moderate to loud all morning long and southwestern Europe stays in to about 2200Z on good days. The morning short path to Australia appears to be closed or very marginal most days. Seventeen meters is often usable to Europe and the Middle East at around 1400-1700Z, but signals are weaker and often exclude northern and eastern Europe."

     

     

    Mark Lunday, WD4ELG in Greensboro, North Carolina has sent some interesting reports on his experiments with QRSS mode. What is QRSS? It is extremely slow speed CW, so slow that a single dit may last for 60 seconds. Using a computer sound card and special QRSS software, stations running power levels as low as 10 microwatts can be extracted out of the noise.

    See: http://www.w0ch.net/qrss/qrss.htm[2] and http://dropbox.curry.com/docs/2012_The_world_of_QRSS.pdf[3]

     

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for March 8 through 14, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 66.6, 67.5, 67.7, 67.8, 68.1, 68.6, and 67.7, with a mean of 67.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 12, 12, 6, 3, 4, and 9, with a mean of 7.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 10, 9, 7, 2, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5.7.

     

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-DK43Rx0Xo
    [2] http://www.w0ch.net/qrss/qrss.htm
    [3] http://dropbox.curry.com/docs/2012_The_world_of_QRSS.pdf
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 23 20:18:17 2018
    03/23/2018

    At 2332 UTC on March 22 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning for this weekend, March 24-25. "Expect the geomagnetic activity to increase to mostly Active levels with isolated periods of Minor to Major Storm levels due to a high speed solar wind stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole becoming geo-effective".

    In last week's report ARLP011 there were no sunspots over the reporting week. On March 15 one new sunspot appeared for a sunspot number of 11, which is the minimum non-zero sunspot number. The next day it was gone, then a new sunspot appeared March 17. Sunspot numbers on March 17-18 were 15 and 13, then none for the rest of our reporting week, March 19-21. So, the average daily sunspot number increased from 0 over the previous week to 5.6 over the most recent 7 days, ending Wednesday March 21.

    Average daily solar flux over the same two periods increased from 67.7 to 69.3. Geomagnetic indices about doubled, with average planetary A index changing from 7.1 to 14.4, and mid-latitude A index increasing from 5.7 to 11.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on March 23 through April 2, 69 on April 3-4, 70 on April 5-15, 69 on April 16-17, 68 on April 18-29, 69 on April 30 through May 1, and 70 on May 2-6.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 22, 24, 18 and 8 on March 23-27, 5, 15, 10 and 8 on March 28-31, then 5 on April 1-9, then 8, 15 and 20 on April 10-12, then 15 on April 13-14, then 8 and 12 on April 15-16, 18 on April 17-19, 15 and 8 on April 20-21, and 5 on April 22-25, 8 on April 26-27, and 5 on April 28 through May 6.

    The spring equinox began at 1615 UTC on Tuesday, March 20 in the Northern Hemisphere. At that moment solar radiation was equally distributed between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Except for the low solar activity, the beginning of spring should be an ideal time for worldwide HF communication.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 23 to April 17, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on April 3, 7-9

    Mostly quiet on March 28, 30, April 6

    Quiet to unsettled on March 26-27, 31, April 1-2, 4-5, 16-18

    Quiet to active on March 23-25, 29, April 10-11, 13, 15

    Active to disturbed on March 26, April 12, 14

    Solar wind will intensify on March 25-28, (31,) April (6-8,) 10-18

    Remark: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

     

    Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI sent this article: https://bit.ly/2uexnYk[1]

    Scott's observation was that the rogue sunspots toward the end of a solar cycle suggest a weaker subsequent cycle. But I was pleased to see the article suggest that the rogue sunspots could suggest a strong cycle like cycle 19 at the end of the 1950s. That would be exciting!

    Scott also wrote: "Down here in the single-digit latitudes, the declining solar cycle has had some interesting effects on propagation. Ten meters has been opening almost every day, sometimes as early as 9AM local time, and providing quite reliable communications into South America through most of the day. By local noon, the FT8 window on 10 meters often looks like the window on 20 meters, packed with signals end to end, but most days into the same region - southern Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay, occasionally with Chile. It has all the characteristics of afternoon TEP openings. Almost every day, the band will be open until 3PM or 4PM local time, when it will suddenly fold, in just ten minutes going from wide open to flat dead.

    "My daily sunrise coffee klatch with the local gringo hams on 75 meters has been affected by the very low solar activity, too. We usually kick off around local sunrise, but the band has been failing to shorten up for local propagation, often failing to open till as much as an hour after local sunrise. Lately, the band opening has not only been late, it's been remarkably sudden when it does happen, often going from almost no local signals at all, to the strong S9+10 signals in as little as a minute. It's like God's flipping a switch. One of the odder aspects of this is that when the transition occurs, the DX signals occasionally don't fade out for half an hour or more, and we've had to move our frequency because of frequent Stateside QRM on the frequency we've been using without a problem for years. More than once, we've had roundtables with Stateside stations that were as strong our local stations were - at least until the D-layer finally kicks in and they're faded out and gone. Occasionally, the DX fades well before the local propagation opens, too. It's all very unpredictable.

    "One hundred and sixty meters down here has greatly benefited from the FT8 revolution, as well as the improved conditions for top band at the bottom of the solar cycle. It seems that lots of the locals, me included, have discovered that a hundred watts into a force-tuned 80-meter antenna will produce useful results on 160-meter FT8. In my own case, I've worked many European stations, including Belarus and Greece, using nothing more than 60 watts into a G5RV antenna at 50 feet. The best DX seems to be appearing about two hours after the band opens at sunset. My good friend Jay, HP3AK, has worked a couple of dozen European and Far East stations using a 60-foot folded 160-meter vertical monopole with only seven radials. All in all, it's been a lot of fun being able to work someone on Top Band without going to all the effort of putting up a dedicated antenna. With all our atmospheric noise here, this is a new experience for most all of us."

     

    The CQ World-Wide WPX SSB Contest is this weekend. See https://www.cqwpx.com/[2]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for March 15 through 21, 2018 were 11, 0, 15, 13, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 5.6. 10.7 cm flux was 69, 68.6, 69.7, 69.1, 70.3, 68.8, and 69.3, with a mean of 69.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 15, 20, 13, 25, 16, 8, and 4, with a mean of 14.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 13, 17, 10, 16, 13, 7, and 3, with a mean of 11.3.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2uexnYk
    [2] https://www.cqwpx.com/
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 30 17:19:33 2018
    03/30/2018

    We saw no sunspots during this reporting week, March 22-28. The previous week had sunspots on only three days, with an average of 5.6.

    Average daily solar flux receded from 69.3 to 68.2. Average daily planetary A index dropped from 14.4 to 10.6, and average mid-latitude A index declined from 11.3 to 8.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on March 30 to April 15, 69 on April 16, 68 on April 17-29, 69 on April 30, then 70 on May 1-12 and 69 on May 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on March 30, 5 on March 31 to April 4, then 8 and 12 on April 5-6, 5 on April 7-9, then 8, 15 and 20 on April 10-12, 15 on April 13-15, then 8, 5 and 5 on April 16-18, then 15, 1 and 15 on April 19-21, then 18, 10 and 5 on April 22-24, then 15, 12 and 8 on April 25-27, 5 on April 28 through May 6, then 8, 15 and 20 on May 7-9, 15 on May 10-12 and 8 on May 13.


    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 30 to April 24, 2018.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on April 1-2, 4, 8-9, 24

    Mostly quiet on March 30, April 5

    Quiet to unsettled on March 31, April 3, 7, 16-19, 23

    Quiet to active on April 6, 10-11, 13, 15, 21-22

    Active to disturbed on April 12, 14, (20)

    Solar wind will intensify on March (31,) April (6-8,) 10-18, 23-25

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts are less reliable again."

     

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK, sent this on March 26: "Remarkable propagation on both 6 and 10 meters despite a SFI of only 68. On March 23, 6 meters opened between North America and CE, LU.


    "Ken, AC4TO, in Florida worked CE4WJK and CE2SV.


    "CE2SV     18/03/23 2242Z  50313.0 EM28 F2 FF47 CQ FT8 one decode      N0JK   
        

    CE2SV     18/03/23 2212Z  50313.0 ft8                             LU4FPZ    

    CE2SV     18/03/23 2203Z  50102.0 579 in EM70 Thanks!             AC4TO     

    "I saw a spot by K0TPP for CE2SV on 50.313 MHz. I copied one decode from CE2SV ~ 2240z. Probably afternoon TEP for AC4TO, possibly an Es link from the Midwest to TEP.

    "The geomagnetic field was active with the Kp to 4.

    "Conditions were good in the CQ WPX SSB on 10 meters March 24. Central and South American stations were loud to eastern Kansas around 1930z and put 15 stations in the log with 5 watts and mobile 1/4 wave whip. Conditions not as good Sunday, though YV1KK was 20 dB over S9 at 2000z. At 2114z CE7VPQ was very loud on 10 and I was his contact # 480.

    "AC4TO heard CE again on 6 meters about the same time:

    CE2SV      18/03/25 2139Z  50102.0 Heard CQ agn                   AC4TO"

     

    This arrived just a little late for last week's bulletin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93FaZY4Qqho[1]


    And this arrived just in time for this week's bulletin: https://youtu.be/a79X7nM-gyw[2]




    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].


    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].


    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].


    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].


    Sunspot numbers for March 22 through 28, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.5, 68.1, 67.6, 68.3, 67.8, 68.3, and 68.6, with a mean of 69.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 17, 9, 17, 12, 9, and 3, with a mean of 14.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 15, 7, 15, 10, 7, and 2, with a mean of 11.3.

     

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93FaZY4Qqho
    [2] https://youtu.be/a79X7nM-gyw
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 6 18:21:13 2018
    04/06/2018

    We only saw sunspots over two days of this past week, March 30 and 31 when the daily sunspot numbers were 11 and 12. There were no sunspots during the previous week, so the average daily sunspot number rose from 0 to 3.3.

    Average daily solar flux changed from 68.2 to 68.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A index declining from 10.6 to 5, and average mid-latitude A index going from 8.9 to 4.

    The averages for solar flux and A index shown at the end of last week's bulletin were incorrect, and have been corrected above. Thanks to AA2F for discovering my error.

    Predicted solar flux is 67 on April 6-12, 68 on April 13-22, 69 on April 23 through May 6, 68 from May 7-19 and 69 on May 7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on April 6, 5 on April 7-9, then on April 10, 15 on April 11-12, 18 on April 13-14, then 15, 10, 5 and 8 on April 15-18, 15 on April 19-21, then 12 and 10 on April 22-23, then 5 on April 24 to May 6, then 10, 15 and 20 on May 7-9. 18 on May 10-11, then 15, 10, 5 and 10 on May 12-15, then 15 on May 16-18 and 12 and 10 on May 19-20.

     

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 6 to May 1, 2018.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on April 8-9, 24-25, 27-29, May 1

    Mostly quiet on April 19, 26, 30

    Quiet to unsettled on April 7, 10, 16-18, 23

    Quiet to active on April 6, 11, 13, 15, 20-22

    Active to disturbed on April 12, 14

    Solar wind will intensify on April (6-8,) 10-18, 23-25, (27-30)

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

     

    Mark Bell, K3MSB, of Airville, Pennsylvania reported on April 5: "I've been trying to work Australia for quite a while on 160 meters. During the current 160-meter season, I've heard bits and pieces of calls from Australia, and occasionally a complete call, but nothing strong enough to work.

    "Saturday morning, March 31, I was on 160 meters around 1030Z. I saw Ron, VK3IO, spotted and tuned to his frequency and was astounded at his signal strength! He was a nice 559, almost armchair copy as the saying goes. I was even more stunned that he answered my first call and received a 579 from him at 1045Z, which is about 35 minutes before my sunrise.  At 1101Z I had the pleasure of working Luke VK3HJ, who was not as strong as Ron, but putting in a very nice signal. My receive antenna is a 200-foot RBOG (Reversible Beverage on Ground) oriented NW/SE and my transmit antenna is an inverted-L.

    "On Wednesday, April 4, 160 meters was pretty dead around 1030Z so I started calling CQ. A few kHz above me, Jon, AA1K, was also calling CQ. Phil, VK6GX, spotted Jon at 1024Z and me at 1033Z. Later I e-mailed Phil and he said while he heard us, we were both too weak to make contact.

    "Phil also stated that openings from VK6 to the East Coast have been few and far between in the last few years. Signals often don't make it across the Nullarbor Plain to VK6."

     

    Interesting article on the history of solar photography: https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/snapshots-of-the-sun-since-1845[1]

     

    From Tamitha Skov: "Outside of the bright region this week being a lot quieter and weaker than we hoped, we have a remnant coronal hole sending small pockets of fast solar wind our way. This is good news for aurora photographers at high latitudes, but it also brings a little more zing to the ionosphere for amateur radio operators and emergency responders suffering with low solar flux right now. 

    "Radio propagation on Earth's day side will likely remain poor, but you might be surprised how a slight bit of activity can really perk up the radio bands at night and in the gray line. GPS users should also enjoy better than average GPS conditions on Earth's night side, even at low latitudes where night time is often troublesome for GPS.

    "But don't expect these conditions to last for more than a few days. Next week we will be dealing with a more serious chance of reaching solar storm conditions, when a much bigger coronal hole rotates into the Earth-strike zone."

    See: https://youtu.be/q5hvAqXiVL4[2]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for March 29 through April 4, 2018 were 0, 11, 12, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.3. 10.7 cm flux was 69, 68.8, 69, 69, 68.4, 67.8, and 68.5, with a mean of 68.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 7, 5, 5, 4, and 5, with a mean of 5. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 4, 6, 4, 4, 3, and 4, with a mean of 4.

     

     


    [1] https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/snapshots-of-the-sun-since-1845
    [2] https://youtu.be/q5hvAqXiVL4
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Apr 16 19:27:23 2018
    04/13/2018

    No sunspots were seen over the past reporting week, April 5-11, so average daily sunspot number declined from 3.3 to 0. Average daily solar flux declined from 68.6 to 67.7. Average daily planetary A index increased from 5 to 9.4, and average daily mid-latitude A index went from 4 to 8.1.

    But on Thursday, April 12, a new sunspot appeared, AR2704, and it is a small one. However, this one is three times the size of new sunspot groups appearing on March 30, March 17, March 15, and March 2.

    Spaceweather.com reported: "A minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is in progress on April 11th as Earth moves through a high-speed stream of solar wind. This is causing bright auroras around the poles, with Northern Lights sighted as far south as the Dakotas in the USA.  The gaseous material is flowing from a wide hole in the sun's atmosphere--so wide that the stream could continue to influence our planet for the next two to three days. Visit Spaceweather.com[1] for updates."

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 8 and 5 on April 13-16, 8 on April 17-18, 12 on April 19, 15 on April 20-21, 12 and 10 on April 22-23, 5 on April 24 to May 5, 8 on May 6, 18 on May 7-8, 15 on May 9, 12 on May 10-11, 8 on May 12-13, 5 and 8 on May 14-15, 15 on May 16-18, 12 and 10 on May 19-20, and 5 on May 21-27.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on April 13-19, 69 on April 20, 67 on April 21-22, 68 on April 23 to May 5, 67 on May 6-19, and 68 on May 20-27.

     

    Interesting article about the next solar minimum: https://bit.ly/2HkdjsP[2]

     

    I do not know if this claim about the biggest sunspot is accurate or not: https://cbsn.ws/2GTZNNi[3]

     

    Another interesting article. Note there seems to be no correlation between geomagnetic storms and troubled whale navigation: https://bit.ly/2IQ4MLf[4]

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 13 to May 8, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on April 24-25, 28 

    Mostly quiet on April 23, 26, May 4 

    Quiet to unsettled on April 17-18, 27, 29-30, May 1, 3, 5, 9 

    Quiet to active on April 13, 15-16, 19, May 2, 6, 8 

    Active to disturbed on April 14, (20-21,) May 7 

    Solar wind will intensify on April (24-25,) May 5-7, (8) 

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts are less reliable again.

    - Beware of paraskavedekatriafobia!"

     

    Tamitha Skov wrote: "We are enjoying a mild solar storm due to some fast-solar wind from a large coronal hole that will be gracing much of the Sun's face over the next few days. The strongest part of this storm has already hit, bringing aurora down to mid-latitudes. Although the back half of this coronal hole is not as well formed as the front half, we should continue to see pockets of fast solar wind causing sporadic boosts in activity through the weekend. Amateur radio operators might take advantage of auroral propagation modes, since the solar flux remains low with our near-solar-minimum Sun.

    "Speaking of, talk of the approaching solar minimum has been hot and heavy as of late, even in scientific circles. We have seen a faster drop towards solar minimum than many expected. This bolsters my hopes that we are indeed crossing through the solar minimum phase more rapidly than predicted. In fact, some recent analyses are indicating we might reach solar minimum as early as sometime this year!

    "As if on cue, the Sun gives us a glimpse into the future this week by birthing a sunspot with a signature that confirms it belongs to the upcoming solar cycle. These new-cycle regions are perfectly normal and will become more common as time goes on. They also serve as comforting reminders that the Sun is not diving into a new Maunder minimum (with no sunspots for 70 years), nor is it plunging us into another ice age. These regions are heralding the coming of a new cycle. So, rest easy. Sunspots will return and likely sooner than most people think."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNccIuI5HUw&feature=youtu.be[5]

    Note that Dr. Skov said a new spot has a polarity suggesting it is from the next solar cycle, which is cycle 25.

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for April 5 through 11, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 66.4, 67.3, 66.8, 67.9, 68.7, 68.5, and 68.3, with a mean of 67.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 4, 5, 5, 11, 18, and 14, with a mean of 9.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 3, 4, 5, 11, 14, and 12, with a mean of 8.1.

     

     


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://bit.ly/2HkdjsP
    [3] https://cbsn.ws/2GTZNNi
    [4] https://bit.ly/2IQ4MLf
    [5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNccIuI5HUw&amp;feature=youtu.be
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 20 19:28:42 2018
    04/20/2018

    At 0631 UTC on April 20 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning.

    "Earth is currently under the influence of a high-speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity at Quiet to Active levels is expected and at times may reach up to Minor Storm levels if there are notable southward Bz periods.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 20-21 APRIL 2018

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

    20 Apr:  Quiet to Active

    21 Apr:  Quiet to Active"

    This link to Space Weather Live explains the reference to "southward Bz periods" above: https://bit.ly/1S6H68D[1]

     

    Average daily sunspot number over the recent reporting week (April 12-18) rose from 0 to 5.4. Of course, any non-zero sunspot number lower than 11 is imaginary, because of the arcane method used for calculating sunspot numbers.

    Every sunspot group counts for 10 points, and each sunspot within that group counts as one point. So, one sunspot in one group yields a sunspot number of 11. Three sunspots in two groups yields a daily sunspot number of 23. The last time we saw a sunspot number greater than 22 was February 9-12 when the numbers were 23, 35, 24 and 26.

    So, an average daily sunspot number lower than 11 must include at least one zero-sunspot day. In the past reporting week, only three days had any sunspots.

    Average daily solar flux rose from 67.7 to 69.9. Average daily planetary A index declined from 9.4 to 6.1, while average mid-latitude A index went from 8.1 to 5.6.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 72 on April 20-26, 71 on April 27, 69 on April 28 through May 5, 70 on May 6-12, 72 on May 13-19, 69 on May 20 through June 1, and 70 on June 2-3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on April 20-22, 5 on April 23-25, 8 on April 26, 5 on April 27 through May 5, 10 on May 6, 15 on May 7-8, 10 on May 9-10, 5 on May 11-15, 12 and 10 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18 through June 1, then 10 and 12 on June 2-3.

     

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group brings us his weekly geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 20 to May 15, 2018.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on April 24-25, 27-28, May 13-14 

    Mostly quiet on April 22-23, May 15

    Quiet to unsettled on April 26, 29-30, May 1, 3-5, 9, 12

    Quiet to active on April (21,) May 2, 7-8, 10-11 

    Active to disturbed on April (20,) May 6 

    Solar wind will intensify on April (24)-25, May (2-3,) 5-6, (7-11) 

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts are less reliable again."

     

    From SolarHam, which presents a weekly Monday observation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW8EXYUPcz4[2]

     

    Dr. Skov reports from a scientific conference in Switzerland this week: https://youtu.be/9MEEzyxJ_cw[3]

    She also corresponded directly with me . . .

    "Dear Tad,

    "I'm writing you while sitting in the ISSI meeting room in Bern, Switzerland listening to twelve fascinating scientists argue about solar observations. The discussion is quite lively as we learn how we can work together to detect and forecast an invisible kind of solar storm. These storms are called 'stealth CMEs' and they used to be rare events. But with our quiet Sun, all that is changing. There is a very good chance that these near invisible events will continue to cause surprise storms at Earth over the next decade, disrupting amateur radio, GPS, and causing issues for power grids with little or no warning of their impact. Solving this significant problem is exactly why we have assembled here in Bern.

    "This week I highlight this amazing team of solar and space physicists, who are helping shape the future of Space Weather prediction. The forecast is shot in my hotel room so it has more of a 'live' feel than my usual studio productions. Hopefully, it not only gives you a look into the new activity our Sun brings this week, but also gives you a glimpse into the important part of my world that is Space Weather research. 

    Cheers,

    Tamitha"

     

    A look at the STEREO image on Friday morning shows an active region just beyond the horizon: https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[4]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for April 12 through 18, 2018 were 13, 14, 11, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 5.4. 10.7 cm flux was 70, 69.7, 69.5, 70.6, 69.2, 69.3, and 70.8, with a mean of 69.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 9, 6, 6, 3, 4, and 6, with a mean of 6.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 8, 6, 5, 3, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5.6.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/1S6H68D
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW8EXYUPcz4
    [3] https://youtu.be/9MEEzyxJ_cw
    [4] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 27 17:53:31 2018
    04/27/2018

    Solar activity increased over the past week, with average daily sunspot numbers up from 5.4 to 20 and average daily solar flux rallying from 69.9 to 73.4. The previous week saw four days with no sunspots, and the recent week had sunspots on every day. New sunspot groups emerged on April 19 and 21.

    Predicted solar flux is 69 on April 27-29, 68 on April 30 through May 3, 70 on May 4-16, 75 on May 17-29, 70 on May 30 through June 10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on April 27, 5 on April 28 through May 5, then 10, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on May 6-10, 5 on May 11-16, then 42, 12 and 8 on May 17-19, 5 on May 20-22, then 8 and 12 on May 23-24, 5 on May 25 through June 1, then 10, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on June 2-6, then 5 on June 7-10.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 27 to May 22, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on April 30

    Mostly quiet on April 28, May 3, 14, 16, 21-22

    Quiet to unsettled on April 27, 29, May 1, 4, 8, 11-13, 19-20

    Quiet to active on May 2, 5, 9-10, 15, (18)

    Active to disturbed on May 6-7, 17

    Solar wind will intensify on April (27-29), May (2,) 5-7, (8-11,) 17-18, (19-20).

    Remarks: 

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. 

    - With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts are less reliable again."

     

    Interesting videos with general information on sunspots and solar flares: http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun/solar-activity/[1]

     

    From the same source, multiple detailed images per day of the sun viewed at different wavelengths: http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/[2]

     

    Dr. Skov will probably release a new space weather video after this bulletin is sent to ARRL HQ for distribution. This is a good place to check for her latest report: https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx[3]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for April 19 through 25, 2018 were 14, 14, 34, 20, 22, 19, and 17, with a mean of 20. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 73, 76.8, 75.7, 73.9, 72.9, and 70.8, with a mean of 73.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 47, 12, 5, 6, 5, and 5, with a mean of 11.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 29, 10, 5, 6, 4, and 4, with a mean of 8.6.

     

     


    [1] http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun/solar-activity/
    [2] http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/
    [3] https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 4 18:13:26 2018
    05/04/2018

    Sunspots disappeared again this week, with a blank sun on April 28, and continuing every day since.

    Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 20 to 3.6, while average daily solar flux decreased from 73.4 to 69.3.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 11.9 to 4.4 and average mid-latitude A index went from 8.6 to 5.

    Predicted solar flux is 67 on May 4-5, 68 on May 6, 69 on May 7-10, 68 on May 11-13, 70 on May 14-28, 68 on May 29 through June 9, and 70 on June 10-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 4-5, then 18, 22, 16, 12 and 8 on May 6-10, 5 on May 11-16, then 42, 12 and 8 on May 17-19, 5 on May 20 through June 1, then 8, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on June 2-6, 5 on June 7-12, then 42, 12, and 8 on June 13-15 and 5 on June 16-17.

     

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interested Group has been compiling this weekly forecast since 1978. 

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 4-29, 2018

    Geomagnetic field will be: 

    Quiet on May 23-26, 28-29 

    Mostly quiet on May 14, 16, 21-22, 27

    Quiet to unsettled on May 4, 11-13, 19-20 

    Quiet to active on May 5, 8-10, 15, (18) 

    Active to disturbed on May (6-7,) 17 

    Solar wind will intensify on May 5-7, (8-11,) 17-18, (19-20, 26-27) 

    Remark: 

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. 

    - With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts are continuing to be less reliable."

     

    Thanks to British ham Max White, M0VNG, and others for alerting us to the recent buzz about the current solar cycle perhaps reaching a minimum sooner than predicted: https://bit.ly/2HN8fdn[1]

     

    Consensus seemed to place the approaching solar minimum around two years from now in 2020, but recent trends suggest the minimum may appear sooner. Does this mean the turnaround and following increase may also come sooner than previously anticipated?

    K9LA has info on this: http://k9la.us/May18_Solar_Minimum_and_Spotless_Days.pdf[2]

    Also: http://k9la.us/html/monthly_feature.html[3]

     

    New from Dr. Skov: https://youtu.be/ylecUN5LgYA[4]  "On the Ledge About Stealthy Solar Storms"

    Dear Tad,

    "Sometimes I wish I had started this Space Weather Woman thing a decade ago. That way I would be able to do a direct comparison with how things were during our last solar minimum in 2008. But then I realize, I wouldn't have had the benefit of you giving me timely reports from your local areas on social media. I wouldn't have heard you talking about the impacts you were experiencing during these solar events. This reminds me how grateful I am to all of you today. If it weren't for you, I would never know the extent to which Space Weather affects our everyday lives.

    "This brings me to this week's forecast video. I am still shaking my head that we managed to miss a stealthy solar storm that brought aurora clear down to Illinois, USA. Guaranteed, national grids were on high alert as we crossed through the G2-level storm threshold. The irony that this stealthy solar storm occurred while we convened a workshop on how to predict them is not lost on me. In fact, it's kind of a cosmic cattle prod. If we can experience such a strong solar storm that surprised us all-- so near solar minimum-- what does that say about our forecasting ability?

    "I hope events like these serve as a wakeup call to us scientists, forecasters, and meteorologists alike. Although this week the Earth-facing side of the Sun is reasonably quiet, I will take this moment to reflect on all the work we have yet to do. In fact, that's exactly what I was doing while sitting on my window ledge during my last night in Switzerland (see the picture above). I was reflecting. Thanks so much for reminding me how important all of this is.

    Cheers,

    Tamitha"

     

    Ever seen this? https://ham.stackexchange.com/[5]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for April 26 through May 2, 2018 were 14, 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.6. 10.7 cm flux was 69.4, 68.7, 70.2, 71.1, 70.2, 68.4, and 67.1, with a mean of 69.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 4, 4, 6, 3, and 4, with a mean of 4.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 5, 5, 3, 10, 3, and 5, with a mean of 5.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2HN8fdn
    [2] http://k9la.us/May18_Solar_Minimum_and_Spotless_Days.pdf
    [3] http://k9la.us/html/monthly_feature.html
    [4] https://youtu.be/ylecUN5LgYA
    [5] https://ham.stackexchange.com/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 11 18:33:17 2018
    05/11/2018

    Sunspots reappeared this week, after none on April 28 through May 3. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 3.6 (last week) to 14.6 (May 3-9).

    So far in 2018 56-percent of days were spotless. For all of 2017 the rate was about half or 28-percent, for the whole year, a total of 104 days. These numbers are according to spaceweather.com[1].

    Seemingly counter-intuitively considering the slight rise in sunspot numbers, yet not unusual, average daily solar flux declined one point from 69.3 to 68.3.

    Solar activity continues to decline, and we've been expecting (over the past few years) solar minimum to arrive about two years from now in 2020.

    But some have suggested that perhaps the decline is currently faster than anticipated. I like to imagine that a sooner minima could precede a faster rise in the next Cycle! What if the upcoming Cycle 25 echoes Cycle 19? Sorry, no scientific evidence, but I like to dream this could happen.

    Cycle 19 was the largest in recorded history, and I would be glad to see another one, just so it isn't accompanied by a Carrington Event. The Carrington Event happened in September 1859 and produced solar flares so powerful that telegraph offices, connected by long lines acting as antennas, caught fire. But the peak of Cycle 19 happened about 100 years later.

    Spaceweather.com reports this week that the American Geophysical Union (agu.org[2]) in a paper published May 10, researchers from the University of Birmingham use Extreme Value Theory to estimate the average time between "Carrington-like flares." See https://bit.ly/2G6J2sR[3]

    It is tough to predict, but they estimate one every 100 years. Of course, this means we are long overdue, but perhaps this is like the gambler's fallacy as it applies to roulette: don't bet on red just because the last five spins of the wheel landed on black: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy[4]

     

    According to http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf2227.pdf[5] on page 11, smoothed solar flux numbers around 63 are predicted toward the end of 2019. But when we observe numbers around the last solar minimum (right now I am looking at the 109 days ending on October 9, 2008 as an example) there were numerous consecutive periods of no sunspots (average daily sunspot number during that time was only 1.046) but average daily solar flux was 66.4, several points higher than values predicted for the end of 2019.

    These long-term predictions are updated about every four weeks, but I have no idea when predictions for 2020 will appear.

    Predicted solar flux is 69 on May 11-12, 68 on May 13-15, 67 on May 16-18, 72 on May 19-25, 70 on May 26, 68 on May 27 through June 8, and 70 on June 9, 72 on June 10-21, 70 on June 22 and 68 on June 23-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on May 11, 5 on May 12-16, 12 on May 17-18, 8 on May 19, 5 on May 20-31, then 18, 25, 20, 16, 12 and 8 on June 1-6, 5 on June 7-12, then 42, 12, and 8 on June 13-15 and 5 on June 16-24.

     

    From Jon Jones, N0JK, on May 5 in a message titled "Six meters comes to life:"
     "The summer 2018 sporadic-E season is underway in the northern hemisphere. On May 4 the 50 MHz band was open most of the day across North America and the northern Caribbean. At 1820z May 4, I was able to work K7BHM DM43 AZ from my car on 50.125 MHz during a work break. I was running 10 W on SSB to a 1/4 wave whip and received a 5x5 report. Most of the activity I saw spotted was FT8 on 50.313 MHz, but there was still a lot of legacy SSB activity. The most interesting spots I saw were for the OA4B/b 50.036 MHz beacon. It was spotted along the eastern seaboard as far north as VE2XK in Quebec. At 2043z I saw N5LJL in EM26 spotted it. I listened from my car and had solid copy on the beacon at 2050z! That's 5,980 km on a mobile whip. The propagation likely multi-hop Es."

     

    Last Friday, Tom Scott, N5GIT, sent this 6-meter report: "Six meters really surprised several of us around here as we were able to copy the TG9ANF beacon in Guatemala. No grid square was copied (I have an audio file). I was using only a long wire antenna tossed over the railing of my second story balcony! I promptly logged XE1AO, in DL89, off that same wire! It sounds like six is off to a great start."

     

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interested Group sends his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 11-June 05, 2018

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on May 27-29

    Quiet to unsettled on 14-15, 24, 30,

    Quiet to active on May 12-13, 19-23, 25, 31,

    Unsettled to active on May 11, 26, June 3-4

    Active to disturbed on May 16-18, June 1-2, (5)

    Solar wind will intensify on May (11,) 17-18, (19-20, 25-27, 31,) June 1-2, (3-4)

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Forecasts remain less reliable"

     

    New space weather observations and a video from Dr. Skov.

    "There has been a recent uptick in solar activity over the past few weeks that reminds us how variable Space Weather can be, even near solar minimum. The last two solar storms have brought aurora as far south as Colorado, Indiana, Germany, and the Netherlands. It's also brought views high in the southern skies over New Zealand and Tasmania.  If these moderately strong solar storms will continue through the next few years as we cross through solar minimum and begin to ascend into the new solar Cycle is yet to be seen. I, for one, hope so.

    "This week, we have three new bright regions gracing the Earth-facing Sun. One of these regions even launched a solar storm on the Sun's backside. Not bad for a supposedly quiet Sun! This week's forecast highlights these regions and the boost in communications we are enjoying right now on the amateur radio bands. It also highlights some of the amazing aurora photographs reported during the recent solar storm. It shows how active our star can be and just how quickly things can change.

    "Cheers, Tamitha"

    See her video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egsgNHmO4U4[6]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for May 3 through 9, 2018 were 0, 13, 14, 14, 14, 25, and 22, with a mean of 14.6. 10.7 cm flux was 66.5, 67.8, 67.6, 67.2, 69.6, 69.6, and 69.6, with a mean of 68.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 20, 31, 17, 14, and 16, with a mean of 15.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 4, 12, 24, 14, 12, and 13, with a mean of 11.7.

     

     


    [1] http://spaceweather.com
    [2] http://agu.org
    [3] https://bit.ly/2G6J2sR
    [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
    [5] http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf2227.pdf
    [6] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egsgNHmO4U4
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 18 16:52:53 2018
    05/18/2018

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Weak solar activity continues, with sunspots returning on May 4 - 14 before disappearing again. From the May 3 - 9 reporting week, the average daily sunspot number declined from 14.6 to 6.4 while the average daily solar flux increased from 68.3 to 70.2.

    Earlier in the week geomagnetic indicators showed unrest from a solar wind stream. Average daily planetary A index declined to 8.4 this recent reporting week, compared to 15.1 over the previous 7. The mid-latitude A index declined from 11.7 to 9.

    Predicted solar flux is 69 on May 18-20; 68 on May 21-25; 70 on May 26-29; 68 on May 30 - June 2; 70 on June 3-8; 71 on June 9-14; 70 on June 15-25; 68 on June 26-29, and 70 on June 30 - July 1.

    Based on this forecast, sunspots may return on May 26 or June 9. May 26 is when the solar flux is expected to rise to 70 before declining again, then hitting 71 on June 9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14 and 8 on May 18-19; 5 on May 20-31; 18 and 28 on June 1-2; 16 on June 3-4; 14, 12, and 8 on June 5-7; 5 on June 8-12; 18, 15, and 10 on June 13-15; 5 on June 16-27; 18 and 28 on June 28-29, and 16 on June 30 - July 1.

    In his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 18-June 12, F.K. Janda, OK1HH, writes that the geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on May 27-29, June 8-9

    Quiet to unsettled on 24, 30, June 7, 10-12

    Quiet to active on May 19-23, 25, 31, 6

    Unsettled to active on May 26, June 3-5

    Active to disturbed on May 18, June 1-2

    Solar wind will intensify on May (18-20, 25-27, 31,) June 1-3, (4-8)

    Notes: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement; forecasts remain less reliable

    From Tamitha Skov:

    "Dear Tad, I have to share with you something important. As you likely know, I have been working with the American Meteorological Society to create a professional Space Weather certification. Such a certification will cement this emerging field by giving weather broadcasters the tools they need to bring Space Weather into our living rooms. Over the past week, we have taken a big step forward in this endeavor. The committee I am leading is now being officially asked to help Universities offer the specialized training that will most benefit weather broadcasters and the public.

    "This couldn't come at a better time. Today, as I look on Space News, I see yet another billionaire investing $32 million in deep space communications networks for the commercial space industry. Just like the dot-com boom at the turn of the century, more and more angel investors are seeing the future of asteroid mining and space tourism as having the potential to be extremely lucrative. But what they don't yet know is how important Space Weather will be to their very livelihoods.

    "We may be dealing with a quiet Sun this week, but the Space Weather remains busy. This is why it's so important we have Space Weather forecasts. In this week's video[1], I go over the short blast of fast solar wind that could bump us back into active conditions over the next day or two. Aurora photographers will need to stay on their toes! The Sun also keeps Amateur Radio operators happy as a new bright region rotates into Earth's view. This region has boosted the solar flux and will keep radio propagation at marginal levels on the Earth's day side easily over the next three days. That sure is a lot of activity for a spotless Sun!

    "Cheers, Tamitha"

    David Greer, N4KZ of Frankfort, Kentucky, offers excellent commentary regarding activity on seemingly dead bands:

    "I know many hams find the current state of HF propagation to be depressing - particularly on the higher bands. But I take an opposite view. Often, I am pleasantly surprised by the SSB contacts I can make on bands that sound dead - but are not always as bleak as they first seem.

    "I like to work phone on 17 meters and higher. Many afternoons when I get home from work a little after 2100 UTC, the higher bands sound dead. But I use a pre-recorded 30-second CQ I recorded on my Icom IC-7300's SD card to make some noise. And often I get answers. But, if I don't, I keep hitting the play button and let the rig call CQ and save my voice. I rotate my beam around to the various headings and sometimes I get at least one unexpected surprise.

    "On several recent afternoons, when I heard no signals on 17 meters I have experienced openings from my central Kentucky QTH to Portugal, Spain or France between 2100 and 2200 UTC. And signals are often strong - S-9 plus. A recent 45-minute long QSO with F5RAG on 17 meters in the late afternoon produced SSB signals so strong it seemed as if we were talking across town on 2-meter FM simplex. A number of stations from Portugal and Spain have found their way into my log recently. Most say the same thing: I'm the only stateside signal they're hearing. As to whether that's because of propagation favoring my part of the USA, or my being one of the few stations 'silly' enough to even try to make contacts under such adverse conditions or my hilltop QTH with sloping terrain, I don't know. 

    "But Western Europe isn't the only place I've worked recently, Twice, H44MS, Bernard, in the Solomon Islands, has called in off the back of my log periodic when it was pointed toward Europe.

    "I also have had some luck on 'dead bands' working into South America on 15 and 10 meters about the same time of day. I'm fairly sure TEP (transequatorial propagation) accounts for those QSOs. 

    "I do have days in which I CQ repeatedly on 17, 15. and 10 meter SSB for an hour or more and come up empty handed. But, on at least half of the days, a DX station replies. And I don't ignore 12 meters. It's yielded the occasional QSO into VK or ZL on a 'dead band.'

    "I know the guys working the new FT8 mode are having some real success in QSOing on so-called dead bands via scatter propagation. I operated a bunch of JT65 and FT8 when the latter mode first became popular - their ability to dig out weak signals is impressive - but, I found myself bored with them and returned to my SSB and CW roots. 

    "I encourage other ops to try the 'dead bands,' particularly from 2100 to 2200 UTC. You just never know until you try."

    Only a brief abstract is available, but this article[2] might be interesting. The full-text PDF[3] appears to be unavailable, at least at this time.

    For more information[4] concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at. Here is an explanation[5] of the numbers used in this bulletin. An archive[6] of past propagation bulletins is on the ARRL website. More good information and tutorials[7] on propagation are on the website of Carl, K9LA. The ARRL website also offers monthly propagation charts[8] between four US regions and 12 overseas locations.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending e-mail distribution of ARRL bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for May 10 - 16 were 11, 11, 12, 11, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 6.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 69.6, 70.3, 69.8, 70.9, 70.3, 70.3, and 69.9, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 16, 10, 8, 5, 4, and 4, with a mean of 8.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 19, 10, 10, 5, 5, and 3, with a mean of 9.


    [1] https://youtu.be/zgODd4Ptrtk
    [2] http://comjournal.org/article/139/10.11648.j.com.20180601.12
    [3] http://article.comjournal.org/pdf/10.11648.j.com.20180601.12.pdf
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 25 18:12:32 2018
    05/25/2018

    Sunspot activity resumed this week, after no sunspots for seven consecutive days. Average daily sunspot number was 7.7, rising from 6.4 in the previous reporting week. Average daily solar flux was 70.1, changed little from 70.2 last week.

    According to Spaceweather.com, in 2018 56% of days so far have been spotless.

    Currently sunspot group 2710 and 2711 are active (2711 is growing), and 2712 is about to emerge beyond the horizon. On May 23 50 one-millionths of the visible solar surface was covered by sunspots. April 24-25 was the last time this level of activity was seen. On April 21-22 the sunspot area numbers were 120 and
    130. 

    Average daily planetary A index and mid-latitude A index were both 5.3, down from 8.4 and 9 the previous week.

    Due to an error at NOAA, the mid-latitude A index for Tuesday was previously reported on Wednesday as 55. This did not make sense to me, as no other magnetometers reported such huge activity. I sent a couple of emails to various contacts at NOAA, and AD0IU got it fixed. This changed both the mid-latitude A index and planetary A index for the day.

    Predicted solar flux is 74 on May 25-27, 73 on May 28, 72 on May 29 to June 1, 70 on June 2-6, 68 on June 7-16, 69 on June 17-20, 70 on June 21 through July 3, and 68 on July 4-8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 25-27, 8 on May 28, then 5 on May 29 through June 1, then 28, 16, 16, 14, 12 and 8 on June 2-7, 5 on June 8-12, 8 on June 13, 5 on June 14-18, then 16, 12 and 8 on June 19-21, 5 on June 22-27, then 16, 26, 16, 14, 12, 12 and 8 on June 28 through July 4, and 5 on July 5-8.

    The above solar flux and planetary A index predictions are updated daily at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[1] 

     

    Louis Szondy, VK5EEE, of Findon, South Australia reminds us: "I read with interest the comments of N4KZ on 'seemingly dead bands' and I'd like to remind your readers about the beacons that cover the world on the 20, 17, 15, 12 and 10-meter bands. I think many hams either don't know about, or have forgotten about those beacons, or because they are in CW they think it will be hard to know which is which, but thanks to the Internet it is easy: the website shows exactly which beacon is transmitting and where. So, to remind readers, the IBP International Beacon Project has 18 beacons spread out around the world, transmitting for 10 seconds each taking turn, sending call sign and first dah at 100 W, then second dah at 10 W, third at 1 W and 4th dah at 100 mW, in each case to an omnidirectional ground plane antenna. Therefore, once every three minutes the same beacon transmits again on the same frequency. By listening for 3 minutes on 14100, 18110, 21150, 24930 and/or 28200 kHz, it is easy to know which parts of the world are open to your location, and if you do not know Morse code you can see which one is transmitting live on this page, provided your computer clock is accurate. See www.ncdxf.org/beacon[2].

    "Bear in mind that these beacons are 100 W to a ground plane, even two dipoles broadside to each other at a sufficient height, let alone beams, would improve signal strength considerably between yourself and that location."

     

    Mark Lundy, WD4ELG, noted on May 22: "On 20-meter FT8 this evening I copied Russia, Mauritania, Brazil, Hawaii, Alaska, Germany, New Zealand and Australia. Just by calling CQ, I worked New Zealand, Australia, Ceuta, Portugal, Switzerland, Germany, and France. I'm using a Hex beam and 50 W.

    "I don't remember a collection of DX like this at the same time since the late '70s. It is probably possible to work DXCC on 20 meters with FT8 in 24 hours. We may lack sunspots, but FT8 has sure brought a lot of hams on the air."

     

    Larry Godek, W0OGH, of Cochise, Arizona wrote on May 20: "Dead bands or poor propagation? There have been some days when the bands were indeed dead. Nothing heard, and it affected 40 and everything above 17 meters here in Arizona during the day.

    "I was reading some old 1979 QST magazines the other day, just to refresh my memory of where we came from, and I ran across an article from a Russian ham about HF ducting. Perhaps that is what may have occurred when I recently worked the 3B7A DXpedition on 40-meter SSB. It has happened on other occasions as well, mainly with hard-to-work DX stations. A52SV on 15 meters is another one that comes to mind. 

    "With 3B7A, I had one last chance and that was Saturday afternoon and evening. I had been outside working and figured it was time to go check out the
    bands. Fifteen, 20 and 17 meters had delivered nothing. The 3B7A crew were working 40-meter SSB as usual, so I figured I'd listen for a bit. Pretty soon I wasn't hearing any other stations and they were calling CQ with no response. I gave him a shout, and even though it took three calls, the operator finally came back to me. I was astonished! I run an Elecraft K3 transceiver at 100 W and the antenna was a 40-meter inverted V up about 18 feet fed with 125 feet of LMR-400 cable. 3B7A are confirmed in Logbook of The World as well as Clublog, so I can now relax a bit!

    "Yesterday on 20-meter FT8, it was a bonanza for me here in the high desert. I managed to work CT3HF, YT3PL, CT1LT, YB1RUS, YB5BOY, 9K2NO, a bunch of Russian stations, HZ1FI, 3D2AG, VKs, ZLs, numerous JA stations, YB0OHG, FK8DD, VK0AI, BX2AFU, XV9NPS, BD7BS, HP1AVS, S51ZZ, LA1PHA, GM3VFR, OM5XX, and EA9ABC - all while using 50 W and a Yagi at 40 feet."

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 25 to June 19, 2018

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on May 25, 30, June 8-11, 13-17

    Quiet to unsettled on May 26, 31, June 7, 12

    Quiet to active on May 29, June 6

    Unsettled to active on May 27-28, June 3-4, 18

    Active to disturbed on June 1-2, (5, 19)

    Solar wind will intensify on May (25-27, 31,) June 1-3, (4-8,) 19

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Forecasts remain less reliable,

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH

     

    From Tamitha Skov: "Dear Tad:  This week we get a real treat. A new active region has rotated into view with a magnetic configuration that is twisted up like a pretzel. On the Sun, things that are twisted up usually don't stay that way for long. They release all that tension in a jolting burst of energy. (Sort of sounds like life, doesn't it?) Those jolts of energy are solar flares and they help to reconfigure and relax the solar pretzel. However, they often come with little warning. In less than three days we have gone from a very quiet Sun to one that has fired multiple C-class flares and has us forecasters flirting with the idea of raising the M-flare risk!  On top of that, solar flux has been boosted to levels we haven't seen in months. I've even heard from amateur radio operators, who have told me they are firing up their rigs for the first time in months, excited they might make contacts denied them this entire year!

    "In the forecast video this week, I discuss how we are keeping a close eye on this new activity. As anticipated, today NOAA named the new region 2712 (that is why I had it in parenthesis in the video) and they are upping the C-flare risk to 25% for the day. This means we will likely see more flare activity before things settle down. If this region remains active for a few more days, it has the possibility of firing a solar storm while in the Earth-strike zone. Chances for this are slim, but it's always a possibility. Overall, this is turning out to be a very exciting week!

    Cheers, Tamitha"

    Her latest weekly video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TbE7svHfYA&feature=youtu.be[3]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for May 17 through 23, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, 12, and 30, with a mean of 7.7. 10.7 cm flux was 69, 69.4, 70.3, 68.8, 69.6, 70.8, and 73.1, with a mean of 70.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 4, 3, 3, 3, 5, and 9, with a mean of 5.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 3, 3, 3, 3, 6, and 10, with a mean of 5.3.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [2] http://www.ncdxf.org/beacon
    [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TbE7svHfYA&amp;feature=youtu.be
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 1 18:32:03 2018
    06/01/2018

    On May 30 at 0005 UTC the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a warning: "On 1 June geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Active and Minor Storm levels due to arrival of the co-rotating interaction region and high-speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole."

    On May 31 Spaceweather.com issued this Solar Wind Alert: "NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms on June 1st, increasing to 65% on June 2nd, when a stream of high-speed solar wind is expected to reach Earth. The last time this gaseous stream lashed our planet's magnetic field, almost a month ago, it sparked bright ribbons of purple light (a.k.a. "STEVE") seen from multiple US states. Visit today's edition of Spaceweather.com for more information." 

    The Sun remained active over the past reporting week. Average daily solar flux rose from 70.1 to 74.9, and average daily sunspot number rose from 7.7 to 26.3. During the previous week in which the average daily sunspot number was 7.7, the first four days had no sunspots.

    New sunspot regions appeared on May 21, 23 and 24.

    Predicted solar flux is 77 on June 1-3, 76, 74 and 72 on June 4-6, 70 on June 7-8, 71 on June 9, 72 on June 10-14, 70 on June 15-17, 72 on June 18-23, 73 on June 24, 72 on June 25-30, 70 on July 1-6, 72 on July 7-11, 70 on July 12-14 and 72 on July 15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 25 on June 1-2, 15, 12 and 8 on June 3-5, 5 on June 6-12, 8 on June 13, 5 on June 14-18, 8 on June 19, 5 on June 20-23, 8 on June 24-25, 5 on June 26-27, then 15, 28, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on June 28 through July 3, then 5 on July 4-9, 8 on July 10, and 5 on July 11-15.

     

    ARRL Field Day is June 23-24. Assuming the predicted numbers above, conditions should be good for Field Day. We want to see low geomagnetic activity, and planetary A index at 5 and 8 on Saturday and Sunday are good indicators. During this period of low solar activity solar flux at 72 and 73 is also good.

     

    Ted Leaf, K6HI, of Kona, Hawaii reports that he is still in operation through the local volcanic activity, and asks "Are there beacons for the lower frequencies, especially now with the lower solar flux?"

    I found this Wikipedia resource for HF beacons: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amateur_radio_propagation_beacon[1]

    Of course, there are lower frequency HF resources on wsprnet.org[2], but this is a bit different than showing what you can tune in and hear without using a special weak signal mode.

    Any readers have suggestions for lower frequency HF beacons?

    Note that Ted has a comment on page 56 of the June 2018 QST regarding preamps and attenuator effects on receiver noise.

     

    From last week: https://bit.ly/2LG8MAp[3]

     

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, brings us this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 1-26, 2018.

    "Geomagnetic field will be: 

    Quiet on June 11-12, 16-17, 20-23 

    Quiet to unsettled on June 10, 18, 24-25 

    Quiet to active on June 8-9 

    Unsettled to active on June 3-4, 7, 13-15, 19 

    Active to disturbed on June 1-2, (5-7, 26) 

    Solar wind will intensify on June 1-3, (4-8, 13-15), 16-17, (18-19, 22-24) 

    Remark: 

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. 

    - Forecasts remain less reliable."

     

    From Tamitha Skov, the Space Weather Woman:

    "What's Old is New Again

    "Dear Tad,

    "I am still smiling at the huge response I got to a post I put up on Twitter this week. A newbie to our Space Weather community dared to talk about Amateur Radio as if it were an outdated hobby-- whoops, bad idea. I gently educated him. In doing so, I roused many radio amateurs and emergency communicators, who added their own comments and talked about their own personal experiences in the field. It was very gratifying. What I hadn't expected, however, was the strong interest in the concept that amateur radio will be critical to establishing over-the-horizon radio communications on planets like Mars in the near future.

    "This idea brings me back to how we managed to communicate over long distances many decades before we had satellites, internet or cellular networks. In terms of wireless communications on Earth, we were very much in the same place back in the early 1900s that we find ourselves in now when we think about colonizing Mars. Yet few people realize that despite all our advanced technology, we can't bring a cell phone to Mars. We will need to fall back on our 'old ways' of doing things when it comes to communicating on other planets. Isn't it funny how 'old' things become 'new' again?

    "Speaking of, this week brings us a new chance for a decent solar storm. Strangely though, the source of this storm is an old coronal hole that gave us a moderate level solar storm about a month ago. This old hole has survived its backside passage on the Sun and has now returned, with the new promise of bringing aurora views down to mid-latitudes again. Isn't it funny, what was old has become new again, in more ways than one!

    Cheers,

    Tamitha"

    Dr. Skov's latest video report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwvKyY26lB0[4]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

    http://arrl.org/the-Sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for May 24 through 30, 2018 were 39, 32, 26, 27, 20, 22, and 18, with a mean of 26.3. 10.7 cm flux was 73.7, 75.7, 72.9, 74.6, 76.9, 74.9, and 75.3, with a mean of 74.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, and 4, with a mean of 3.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 4, 5, 5, 4, 5, and 5, with a mean of 4.7.

     

     


    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amateur_radio_propagation_beacon
    [2] http://wsprnet.org
    [3] https://bit.ly/2LG8MAp
    [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwvKyY26lB0
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 8 18:51:05 2018
    06/08/2018

     

    Tad Cook, K7RA[1], Seattle, reports: Sunspots vanished again after appearing on every day, from May 21 through June 4. Average daily sunspot numbers for the May 31 through June 6 reporting week dropped from 26.3 to 12.9.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 74.9 to 73.2. Average planetary A index increased from 3.9 to 11.7 while average mid-latitude A index increased from 4.7 to 10.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 69 on June 8-10; 70 on June 11-14; 72 on June 15-17; 74 on June 18-23; 72 on June 24-30; 73 and 72 on July 1-2; 70 on July 3-7; 72 on July 8-14; 74 on July 15-20, and 72 on July 21-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 8-12; 8 on June 13; 5 on June 14-18; 8 on June 19; 5 on June 20-26; 15, 28, and 18 on June 27-29; 10 on June 30 - July 1; 8 on July 2; 5 on July 3-9; 8 on July 10; 5 on July 11-15; 8 on July 16, and 5 on July 17-22.

    The summer solstice in the Northern Hemisphere is less than 2 weeks away - Thursday, June 21, just before ARRL Field Day weekend. Around this time of year, we may see sporadic-E propagation on 10 meters and sometimes on 6 meters. This site[2] is devoted to 10-meter meter sporadic-E.

    June 23-24 is Field Day weekend. Predicted solar flux of 74 and 72 looks promising, and the planetary A index prediction of 5 for both days is excellent. Previously, the planetary A index was predicted at 8 for Sunday, and 5 is better.

    Our readers write. We received this from Bill Mader, K8TE, president of the Albuquerque DX Association:

    "I hope you and Dr. [Tamitha] Skov can educate folks about HF communications on the planet Mars. Although Mars' atmosphere is approximately 0.6% of Earth's, there are sufficient atoms to provide an ionosphere according to some scientists[3].

    "However, reading this paper, it's obvious the authors do not have a lot of experience with the subject, since they state the Mars ionosphere reflects radio signals, rather than refracts them.

    "Long ago, I gave a presentation to a middle school class on this very subject. This is before the scientific community knew about Mars' complicated atmosphere, much less its ionosphere. I suggest satellite communications would be necessary between explorers on Mars' surface. It may well be you will eventually need to provide HF propagation predictions for hams on Mars!"

    Lou, VK5EEE, wrote regarding a recent inquiry on HF beacons:

    "Beacons on bands other than 10 meters (28.200 - 28.300 MHz) are discouraged by the IARU, however, there are a few exceptions that have been approved (and many unapproved beacons).

    "The most famous and useful is DK0WCY. The German website (with a few pages in English) has a wealth of information, but not something quite basic: The actual power and antenna of the beacon itself. I had to find this out in correspondence. I speak German, so I have also corresponded with DDK9, the German RTTY WX station on 30 meters and obtained information about that station too. To make it easy for hams, I have put together pages (A[4]) (B[5]) that make it easy to find what you need about these.

    "If you agree with the aims of the site it would be an honor if you like to join too. But in any event please do make readers aware of this, as 30 meters is a very interesting band for propagation, as you know; I'd call it the Queen Band of HF while I'd call 20 the King. During sunspot minima, the most reliable long-distance DX takes place on 30 meters, in my view, sometimes 24 hours a day, and with less effort of antenna than on 40 meters, and more and longer openings than on 20. Hence, as one of my favorite bands, I devoted a wiki website to it.

    "You can find various info on the '30m info' menu on the website, but I think the above one or two links would be of great interest to readers, in partial answer to other useful beacons.

    "A very fun beacon is IY4M, just below the 10 meter exclusive beacon band on 28.195 MHz and also on 12 meters. It is extremely hard to find information about this beacon, which is sad, as it is an amazing work.

    "You can QSO with the beacon in CW; you give it various commands, such as to speed up, slow down, send this or that info, etc. I used to love having regular QSOs with it from Europe especially during Sporadic E seasons."

    This is from George Ockwell, K7HBN:

    "Perhaps it occurred too late in the reporting period, but I'm surprised you didn't receive any comments on the exceptional conditions during the CQ WPX CW[6] contest, May 26-27. Here in Western Washington, 20 meters was open to somewhere the full 48-hour period. The SFI was 74 to 75 with the A Index 4-5 and the K Index 0-1. Fifteen meters was open to South America with some JA as well. Brief openings also happened on 10 meters."

    The Baker Island DXpedition, which gets under way later this month, has published some propagation guidance[7].

    Other resources[8] from K6TU.

    For more information[9] concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at. Here is an explanation[10] of the numbers used in this bulletin. An archive[11] of past propagation bulletins is on the ARRL website. More good information and tutorials[12] on propagation are on the website of Carl, K9LA. The ARRL website also offers monthly propagation charts[13] between four US regions and 12 overseas locations. Instructions[14] for starting or ending e-mail distribution of ARRL bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for May 31 - June 6 were 21, 22, 20, 16, 11, 0, and 0, with a mean of 12.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 76.8, 74.8, 74.4, 73.6, 70.5, 71.3, and 71.1, with a mean of 73.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 26, 17, 9, 5, 6, and 7, with a mean of 11.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 19, 14, 9, 5, 6, and 9, with a mean of 10.4.

     


    [1] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [2] http://www.chem.hawaii.edu/uham/spore.html
    [3] https://bit.ly/2xTY06z
    [4] http://www.30cw.net/dk0wcy
    [5] http://www.30cw.net/ddk9
    [6] http://www.cqwpx.com/
    [7] http://www.baker2018.net/pages/propagation.html
    [8] https://www.k6tu.net/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 15 19:10:24 2018
    06/15/2018

    Sunspots returned a few days ago after a 7-day absence. Average daily sunspot number dropped from 12.9 in last week's report to 4 this week. Average daily solar flux dropped from 73.2 to 69.4. Geomagnetic conditions were quieter with average daily planetary A index declining from 11.7 to 4.4 and mid-latitude A index from 10.4 to 5.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 72 on June 15-21, 75 on June 22-23, 74 on June 24-25, 73 on June 26, 72 on June 27-28, 71 on June 29-30, 70 on July 1-3, 69 on July 4-6, 70 on July 7, 72 on July 8-14, 73 on July 15, 74 on July 16-17, 75 on July 18-20, 74 on July 21-22, 73 on July 23, 72 on July 24-25, 71 on July 26-27 and 70 on July 28-29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 15-26, then 15, 28, 18 and 10 on June 27-30, 5 on July 1-8, 8 on July 9-11, 5 on July 12-15, 8 on July 16, 5 on July 17-23, then 15, 25, 15, 8 on July 24-27 and 5 on July 28-29.

    Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, June 23-24. Predicted planetary A index of 5 on both days is a welcome indicator of undisturbed conditions, as are the predicted solar flux values of 75 and 74.

     

    The latest from Dr. Skov:

    "Dear Tad,

    "Have I ever mentioned forecasting Space Weather is hard? One would think that with all the spacecraft and instruments we have trained on the Sun, we would be able to do so much better than we do. This week is a perfect example of that. Just eight and a half days ahead of us (in terms of weather that is) sits the STEREO-A spacecraft. It sees solar features before we do at Earth and gets to sample the solar wind created by these features on the Sun a little more than a week before we do. Watching data from STEREO-A is a great way to know what is coming. Except when it doesn't.

    "This is of those times. Though STEREO-A gives us a great look into the future, I must constantly remind myself how quickly things change on the Sun. The coronal hole that was open just 8 days ago, likely closed a bit as it rotated to the Earth-strike zone. Not only that, but right now, STEREO-A is about six degrees further south in solar latitude than is Earth. Obviously, in this case that makes a huge difference.

    "So, this week, we are only being brushed by a fast wind stream that is flowing mostly south of Earth. I had hoped for a mini-solar storm that would bring us aurora, both in pictures and in propagation modes, but it looks like we will need to wait for a change in the weather. As STEREO-A creeps ever closer to us in its slow approach to Earth, it can give us great insights into what things will be like tomorrow. But nothing is ever a guarantee. It's a good lesson to remember. 

    "Cheers,

    Tamitha"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUSd2293p_I&[1]

    Her report from a few days earlier: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-Qo4aqldDc&[2]

     

    Gert Carlsson, AA7G, sends along this information on the IY4M interactive beacon robot: http://www.cqdx.ru/ham/ham_radio/iy4m-marconi-cw-beacon-robot/[3]

     

    Mark Lunday, WD4ELG, of Greensboro, North Carolina reported on June 9: "I am here in my shack in central North Carolina, truly amazed. Forty-one years in the hobby; that does not happen too often these days. Surprises, yes. Pure amazement, infrequent.

    "But here I sit. It's 2300 local time (0300 UTC). I called CQ on 17 meters on FT8 with 25 watts and a 160-meter inverted L antenna with a remote coupler at the base. I got a reply from JH7VHZ. Bear in mind that this was with a non-directional wire, no gain, 90 feet vertical and 42 feet angled down 45 degrees, with 20 radials, in a forest of pine trees, fed with 300 feet of coax from my shack. At 11 PM local!  And he called me. Sure it was FT8, but that's not the point.

    "Last time I worked Japan from the east coast on the higher bands (it's not that common for me here, with my antenna setup) was two years ago on 15 meters in the ARRL DX SSB contest. Sure, I can occasionally hear them very weakly, but it's not easy to get through. (Of course, it's much easier on 40 meters than 20, 17, or 15 meters.)

    "The last time I worked Japan at that late an hour when it was not on 40 meters, was September 2012, on SSB on 20 meters. Before that, it was 21 years ago when I was closer to the ocean in Florida, so I had better propagation. 

    "And before that time in 1997, it was 1979, I was in California, the bands were on fire, I had a dipole at 20 feet on a hill about a mile from the Pacific Ocean, and 15 meters was open well past sunset to Japan and Russia. I used to run CW pileups in DX contests at high speed until 10 PM local on 10 meters, then switch to 15 meters until midnight, then work them on 20 until I fell asleep at my desk around 0200. (Oh, how I wish I had that energy of a 14-year-old today!)

    "But I digress. 

    "We complain (well, I complain) about the poor band conditions, but maybe it's also factor of not having more activity during sunspot cycle lows. FT8 is a game changer, and it seems like activity has really increased, especially DX.

    "On 17 meters FT8, I am also copying E5 and UA9. On FT8 on 20 meters, I am copying VK/ZL, EU, 9K. All very workable, all very strong. Twenty meters seems to be what it was at sunspot peak, always open, and frequently capable of worldwide DX, especially at night. Now that is how I remember 1979. Twenty meters was always open -- like it is tonight."

     

    Bob Lombardi, W4ATM, of Melbourne, Florida on June 11 wrote: "I had been starting to refer to the Sporadic E propagation we had from about June 1st and well into last week as 'The Great Sporadic E Opening of June 2018.' Morning checks on DXMaps would show the density of transatlantic propagation to/from Europe at densities I've never seen. For the first time in my life, I saw DX contacts reported from Japan into the southeastern US one evening, including one into my grid square. (I was having dinner and missed the brief chance.)

    "I've been operating on 6 meters since 2003, and the June contest has always been the most productive weekend of the year for me. Last year, after hearing about this new thing called FT8 while following DX spots, I started experimenting with that mode and have played with it a bit. Not expert level, but I know my way around it. 

    "Last Monday, my country total in Europe went from 1 to 4.

    "I suppose the attack of Murphy's Law for the contest was predictable, but Saturday was the worst day I've seen since late May. Sunday was better, but new grids were hard to find, and my ultimate hope of completing my 6-meter Worked All States never had a chance. Not one KH6 or KL7 to the mainland was seen all weekend. The vast majority of the grid locators I heard were among the first I ever worked: FN, FM, EM and the eastern half of EN. I did manage to work a few Canadian grid squares I've never gotten before, into Saskatchewan and Alberta, and a couple in the lower 48.

    "Of course, there's a reason it's called 'sporadic,' and what little we had this weekend was better than nothing, but what a contest it would have been if the propagation hadn't peaked a week before the contest.

    "I'm left to wonder if this really was a June Sporadic E Season for the record books, or if it's some combination of more people online and reporting, more activity on 6, or the influence of FT8. The few times I looked at the modes being reported, it seemed 80% of the reports were FT8."

      

    Jeff, N8II, reported: "I worked CT1ESV, Portugal today June 14 at 2230Z, S8 on 10-meter phone. DXMAPS.com showed North American stations working S01WS in Western Sahara on 6-meter FT8 and there were North-America-to-Europe contacts, too."

     

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH reports:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 15 to July 10, 2018

    Geomagnetic field will be: 

    Quiet on June 20-24, July 2-3 

    Quiet to unsettled on June 16-19 

    Quiet to active on June 15, 25, July 1 

    Unsettled to active on June (26, 30) 

    Active to disturbed on June (27,) 28, (29) 

    Solar wind will intensify on June (15,) 16-17, (18-19, 

    22-24, 26,) 27-29, (30,) July 1, (9-10) 

    Remark: 

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. 

    - Due to planned trips, this forecast will not be compiled from June 21st (or 28th) to July 5th."

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for June 7-13, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 16, with a mean of 4. 10.7 cm flux was 69.3, 68.2, 66.8, 70.2, 69.9, 70.3, and 70.8, with a mean of 69.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, and 5, with a mean of 4.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 5, and 7, with a mean of 5.1.

     

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUSd2293p_I&amp;
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-Qo4aqldDc&amp;
    [3] http://www.cqdx.ru/ham/ham_radio/iy4m-marconi-cw-beacon-robot/
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 22 15:28:29 2018
    06/22/2018

    On Wednesday, June 20 Spaceweather.com reported the sudden emergence of sunspot AR2715. The sunspot number on that day shot up to 54, and it was 53 the next day. Average daily sunspot number for the reporting week (June 14-20) was 25.7, up from 4 the previous week. Average daily solar flux rose from 69.4 to 74. Solar flux was 82.1 on June 20.

    We have not seen numbers such as this since last September. This is good news just before ARRL Field Day, assuming the activity does not produce any geomagnetic disturbance.

    Predicted solar flux is 82 on June 22, 80 on June 23-24, 78 on June 25-28, 75 and 70 on June 29-30, 68 on July 1-6, 70 on July 7, 72 on July 8-13, 74 and 72 on July 14-15, 74 on July 16-20, 70 on July 21-27, 68 on July 28 through August 2, and 72 on August 3-5.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 22-23, then 12, 8, 5, 8, 20, 15 and 10 on June 24-30, 5 on July 1-14, 8 on July 15-16, 5 on July 17-20, 8 on July 21-22, then 5, 15, 28, 18 and 10 on July 23-27, and 5 on July 28 through August 5.

    We saw some heightened geomagnetic activity on Monday, June 18 UTC when the planetary K index rose to 5, and later in the day Alaska's College K index hit 6 over two of the eight 3-hour periods for the day. College A index was 33. 

    Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown West Virginia sent this report yesterday, June 21: "Today we are finally taking a breather from widespread sporadic E openings to many different areas. The best 10-mter opening I have worked so far was on June 4 when I worked 72 European stations on SSB with best DX into Poland, Slovak Republic, and Greece (the most European stations ever worked by me in single Es opening). Quite a few were running 25 W or less and I worked all the UK countries except Jersey which was self-spotted. Incredible! 

    "On the morning of June 17, I heard about 15 Italian stations on 10-meter CW and SSB working the Italian 10-meter contest; none would stop long enough to answer my calls. But, after returning from the W3LPL open house, I started making QSOs for the West Virginia QSO Party on 10-meter SSB and there was IT9ACN at 2207Z calling CQ in his contest and he was thrilled to work me; he and his Sicilian friend IT9BUN were both about S8 with QSB. I went on to work another IT9, IK7, and MM0TFU (weak) in Scotland, along with 19 USA stations to the west and south. After moving to 15 meters, a station from northern Spain called in and quite a few European stations were worked in the 2300 and 2400Z hours on 20-meter SSB along with many Es QSOs into all W4s (except VA/NC), OH, MI, all W9s, all W5s, and NY plus all New England states.

    "The party continued on 10-meter SSB on the June 17 working KW2W in Vermont at 1309Z and then, on 15-meter CW, HV0A in the Vatican (my first Vatican contact in over 1-1/2 years) via probable Es. Then, it was back to 10-meter SSB double hop Es at 2333Z with Steve, WB2WIK, in Los Angeles also working two other southern California stations. I also contacted stations in Florida, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Alabama, and Mississippi. 

    "On the June 18, starting at 2039Z on 10-meter CW, I found and worked F5NBX in France, M0BKL in England, and IK1ZOC in Italy. Then, starting 2215Z on 10-meter SSB, I worked WP4PPV in Puerto Rico, as well as stations in Maine and Florida.

    "On June 19, starting 2024Z on 10-meter CW, I found HB9BKL in Switzerland, M0BKL again, and I was called by IU4FJI in Italy. Then, I switched to 10-meter SSB to work 2E0IQD in England and I5KAP in Florence, Italy. 

    "June 20 featured very intense sporadic E for many hours, so I returned to 10-meter SSB at 0123Z, working K7CAR at a state park in Utah, and many more stations in Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Kentucky, Michigan and elsewhere. Almost all day long during the daytime into late evening there was widespread Es, but I was too busy until 2350Z to operate. That's when I worked Minnesota, New York (a station in rare grid FN13), VE3TM in FN25, and a Missouri station on 6 meters. Then it was down to 10-meter SSB again to work many other stations before calling it a day at 0120Z."

    Mike Treister, W9NY, of Chicago wrote: "It is interesting to hear about the increased sunspots. I have heard a lot of skip - few hundred miles - from all directions on 6 and 10 meters the past few days. Signals have been quite strong. It is nice to hear so many new hams being excited with their 10 and 6-meter contacts."

    Here is a new report from Dr. Skov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfIJ6ygBfwE&[1]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].


    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].


    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].


    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].


    Sunspot numbers for June 14 to 20, 2018 were 16, 13, 13, 15, 28, 41, and 54, with a mean of 25.7. 10.7 cm flux was 72.4, 70.6, 70.5, 72.3, 73.7, 76.6, and 82.1, with a mean of 74. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 3, 5, 19, 6, and 5, with a mean of 6.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 6, 4, 7, 20, 6, and 7, with a mean of 8.1.

     

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfIJ6ygBfwE&amp;
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 29 14:47:03 2018
    06/29/2018

    Conditions were good for Field Day weekend, with no major geomagnetic disruptions, while solar flux and sunspot numbers were relatively high for this part of the solar cycle. On Friday, Saturday and Sunday the sunspot numbers were 41, 34 and 16 while solar flux was 80.3, 77.1 and 74.5.

    Planetary A index was 4, 16 and 7 on Friday through Sunday. On Saturday the College A index in Alaska reached 24, so I imagine Field Day stations in Alaska and Canada's northern latitudes suffered a bit, although I've received no reports. College K index was 4 at 0600 UTC, then 2 at 0900 UTC, then 5, 5 and 4 on 1200-1800 UTC.

    But the middle-latitude A index (measured in Virginia) was 15 on Saturday, and the K index reached four on only two periods, at 1200 UTC and again at the end of the UTC day 12 hours later. Otherwise the mid-latitude K index varied from 2-3.

    No sunspots are visible since Tuesday, June 26. Average daily sunspot number was 22.6 this reporting week (June 21-27), down slightly from the previous week's average of 25.7.

    Average daily solar flux increased this reporting week from 74 to 75.3.

    Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 9.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on June 29, 68 on June 30 through July 6, 72 on July 7-13, 75 on July 14-15, 77 on July 16, 80 on July 17-19, 77 on July 20-21, 75 on July 22, 72 on July 23-24, 70 on July 25-26, 68 on July 27 through August 2, 72 on August 3-9, 75 on August 10-11 and 77 on July 12. 

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on June 29 to July 2, 5 on June 3-14, 15 on July 15, 5 on July 16-19, 15 on July 20, 8 on July 21-22, then 10, 25, 18, 12 and 8 on July 23-27, 5 on July 28 through August 10, 15 on August 11 and 5 on August 12.

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK, reported a 6-meter opening to Asia on Thursday, June 21: "There was a major sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz between Japan, China, Korea and North America. Hundreds of contacts were made, most via FT8. 

    "I got off work at 2130 UTC and drove home to Lawrence from Kansas City. I had seen some spots that a good opening to Japan was developing prior to leaving work. I stopped at the I-70 Lawrence rest stop at 2200 check the band. 

    "Monitoring FT8 signals at 50.313 MHz with just a 1/4 wavelength mag-mount whip antenna, I decoded JA8XTG, JH8XVH, JP1LRT, JH7DFZ, JE1BMJ, JG3IFX/8, CM2XN, JA1UAV, JE1BMJ, and JA7QVI. 

    "I tried to work some of the JAs, but the mobile setup was unable to get through. I went home, got my portable set up with a 2-element Yagi antenna and tried again at 2315 UTC. I was able to work several JAs, including JA7QVI and JA9SJI. I managed to get one decode of BH4IGO. The opening got weaker after 2340, but Japanese stations were still working Cuba, Cayman Island and other islands in the Caribbean. Larry, N0LL, said signals were strong enough he worked a few JAs on CW." 

     

    On June 28 Mark Lunday, WD4ELG, of Greensboro, North Carolina reported: "Fifteen meters has been almost completely dominated by trans-equatorial propagation for many days, primarily using FT8. Suddenly, at 2200 UTC today, I start picking up 9K2HS (Kuwait) calling CQ! Then I hear SP2HQP (Gdansk, Poland). 

    "I have been working Europe on 17 and 20 meters, but this is the first time in a while that 15 has been open in the Europe-to-Southwest Asia path in a
    while." 

    (Trans-equatorial propagation involves signals that seem to be propagating only over a north-south path, across the equator).

     

    Last week, on June 22, Bob German, KG6PJG, of Big Bear Lake, California reported: "I maintain an APRS VHF I-gate from my home, located at an elevation of approximately 7,260 feet. Most packets received are from a localized area with a few from more distant locations. However, on June 19 from 1646 to 1837 UTC, I received some very surprising packets. I believe this was likely due to unusual atmospheric conditions that were reflecting 2-meter, and likely 6-meter, signals much further than normal. These packets were sent from Arkansas, Kansas, and Oklahoma with the most distant being 2,168.3 km. The sending locations can be viewed at: http://aprs.link/app/aprs/stations/digiusermap-KG6PJG-10[1] 

    My station consists of a Kenwood TMV71A using a Diamond X300A antenna. The APRS software is Direwolf and APRSIS32. 

    "I would guess that other amateur services probably experienced these conditions and I thought it might of some value to pass along. I have no experience with VHF DXing but hope to engage in this activity in the future."

    Looks like Bob observed some nice VHF sporadic-E propagation.

     

    Jeff, N8II, of Shepherdstown, West Virginia reported last Sunday, June 24: "It would seem that magical things would happen with such a drastic increase in the Solar Flux Index with low K index, but at times, especially around 1200-1300Z on 20 meters things have seemed pretty unchanged from when the SFI was in high 60s. I did work some European and Asiatic Russians, as well as Finland, Israel, and UN6P in Kazakhstan at around 0200 to 0300 UTC on 20-meter CW on June 22. The next night was not nearly as good. There was almost no sporadic E on any band during Field Day Saturday, followed by tremendous Es on Sunday! 

    "I did notice some improvement on 17 meters around 1300Z (signals were still quite weak, however) and some late openings to Europe on 17 meters. Japanese stations have been loud, but very few, on 20 meters 1200Z and probably earlier." 

    In the Correspondence section of the July 2018 issue of QST, Bob Kozlarek, WA2SQQ, of Elmwood Park, New Jersey points out that "?85-percent of my best 160-meter activity took place during the low part of the last solar cycle. While 10, 15 and 20 meters were quiet, I was very active on 160, 75 and 40 meters. It's time to retune and start thinking about making the best of these situations. Days without sunspots can be a great time to explore new or seldom used bands or modes, such as 2-meter SSB and digital mobile radio."



    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]. 

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5]. 

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6]. 

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7]. 

    Sunspot numbers for June 21 to 27, 2018 were 41, 41, 34, 16, 14, 12, and 0, with a mean of 22.6. 10.7 cm flux was 81.5, 80.3, 77.1, 74.5, 72.8, 71.1, and 70, with a mean of 75.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 16, 7, 12, 20, and 7, with a mean of 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 4, 15, 8, 10, 17, and 7, with a mean of 9.3.

     

     


    [1] http://aprs.link/app/aprs/stations/digiusermap-KG6PJG-10
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 6 15:04:37 2018
    07/06/2018

    No sunspots have appeared since June 26. If we use predicted solar flux as a proxy, flux is expected to be less than 70 until July 8, this Sunday, so I would not expect sunspot activity to resume perhaps until July 13-23 when solar flux is expected to rise above 70.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on July 6-7, 70 on July 8-12, 72 on July 13, 75 on July 14-15, 77 on July 16, 80 on July 17-19, 77 on July 20-21, 73 and 71 on July 22-23, 70 on July 24-25, 69 on July 26-27, 68 on July 28 through August 5, 69 on August 6, 72 on August 7-9, 75 on August 10-11, 77 on August 12, 80 on August 13-15, 77 on August 16-17, then 73 and 71 on August 18-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on July 6, 5 on July 7-14, then 15 on July 15, 5 on July 16-19, then 15, 8, 10, 18 and 7 on July 20-24, 5 on July 25-28, 8 on July 29, 5 on July 30 through August 10, 15 on August 11, 5 on August 12-15, then 15, 8, 10 and 18 on August 16-19.

     

    Chip Margelli, K7JA, had a comment on the coverage of Field Day conditions last week: "I saw your propagation report re Field Day. I'm still trying to figure out which planet that represented.

    "Conditions on Field Day were generally awful. The K index rising to 4 Saturday morning really tore up the bands and blew out the E layer here in the western US. Neither 6 nor 10 meters opened at all on Saturday, and there were only a few pop-up paths that emerged on Sunday on meters. On six, while much of the eastern part of the country had a big band, but in southern California we worked five whole stations in South Dakota. That was it.

    "Twenty meters was fair at best, but it closed early Saturday night. Fifteen was a huge bust, and 40 was very disturbed, with heavy fading and East Coast signals generally huddling right at the edge of being audible. Forty meters never really took off to the east, causing our station to be at least 30% down from our anticipated numbers.

    "It wasn't a good weekend for propagation at all. It was especially disappointing because 6 meters had been wide open all week before Field Day, and a week after the event it was open across the country again."

     

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[1]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[2].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[3]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[4].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[5].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[6].

    Sunspot numbers for June 28 to July 4, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.5, 68.6, 68.8, 68.1, 66.6, 68.2, and 67.9, with a mean of 68.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, and 5, with a mean of 4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, and 4, with a mean of 4.

     

     


    [1] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [2] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [3] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 13 16:25:17 2018
    07/13/2018

    As of Thursday, July 12, there have been no sunspots visible for 16 days consecutively.

    Spaceweather.com pointed out that to find an equally long stretch of no sunspots, we must look back to November 2009 when we were emerging from the deepest solar minimum in a century. At the lowest of the low activity in 2008, the sun was blank for 52 consecutive days, they reported, and that seems to be from July 21, 2008 through September 10, 2008, as shown here: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2008_DSD.txt[1]

    However, my own record shows a slight break in that period, with a sunspot number of 11 on August 21-22, 2008. Where did I get this, nearly ten years ago? Although NOAA did not report this (as seen in the link above), Spaceweather.com did. If you look in their archive for those dates, you will see it reported. They characterized it as a "relatively small spot."

    I asked Dr. Tony Phillips of Spaceweather.com about this, and he replied: "Good point! To get those 52 days, I went through the official NOAA sunspot records and ironically did not check Spaceweather.com. They might have considered the spot a 'pore' and not a fully developed sunspot. At any rate, the overall picture is still the same: If this solar minimum is anything like the last one, we will eventually look back on 15 day stretches of spotlessness as relatively brief intervals."

    Was it so small that NOAA didn't record it? It was there for two days, so I decided to include it in my record. My personal record of solar flux and sunspots is preserved and updated in the Solar Data Plotting Utility created by Scott Craig, WA4TTK: http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp[2]

    Note he has a recent update for the data, and you can continue to automatically update your copy weekly using a copy of this bulletin.

     

    Although there were no sunspots last week, we did see an increase in solar flux, from an average of 68.2 in the previous week to 71.5 in the July 5-11 period. This is not a large difference.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 4 to 7.3, while average daily mid-latitude A index increased from 4 to 7.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 72 on July 13-19, then 73, 74, 72, 72, and 70 on July 20-24, then 68 on July 25 through August 2, 70 on August 3, 72 on August 4-6, 74 on August 7, 76 on August 8-16, then 74, 72, 72, and 70 on August 17-20, and 68 on August 21-26.

    Not long ago I thought sunspots may return by July 17-19, when solar flux was predicted to rise to 80, but after July 7 that more optimistic forecast was scaled back to what we have now.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 13-19, then 15, 8, 10, 18 and 8 on July 20-24, then 5 again on July 25 through August 4, then 12 and 8 on August 5-6, 5 again on August 7-10, 16 and 8 on August 11-12, 5 on August 13-15, then 15, 8, 10, 18 and 8 on August 16-20, and 5 on August 21-26.

     

    Franta, OK1HH, is back with his geomagnetic forecast after his previously announced absence:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 13 to August 8, 2018 

    Geomagnetic field will be: 

    Quiet on July 13, 25-29, August 6 

    Quiet to unsettled on July (15-18, 21,) 30-31, August 4 

    Quiet to active on July 20, 23, August 1, 3, (5, 7-8) 

    Unsettled to active on July (14, 19,) 24 

    Active to disturbed on July 22, August 2 

    Solar wind will intensify on July 13-15 and 20-23 

    Remarks: 

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. 

    - Beware of paraskavedekatriafobia today!"

     

    OH6BG has created a VOACAP tool for WRTC 2018, currently in progress: http://www.voacap.com/wrtc2018/[3]

    Also see: http://www.wrtc2018.de/en/[4]

    Also, this weekend, the IARU HF Championship: http://www.arrl.org/iaru-hf-championship[5]




    Paul Merrill, W7IV, of Templeton, California wrote: "So, what do you think about all the theories of 6-meter propagation in light of this fantastic summer and the new mode of FT8? Was this propagation around all along and we just didn't have the gain or sensitivity to make use of it?"

    I'm certain this is the case. FT8 is amazingly powerful, and seemingly can peel back layers of noise and uncertainty that human ears cannot.

     

    On July 8, Dr. Skov wrote:

    "Dear Tad,

    "After nearly two weeks of quiet, our Sun graces us with a much-needed boost in activity. I took this bit of down time to celebrate the American fourth of July with family, and to reflect on where the fireworks of the Sun will lead us once we pass through this solar minimum. I have some ideas. In the coming several weeks, I will ask for voluntary feedback on my Patreon project, set for pre-launch later this month. I want to ensure I am creating content that most suits your needs and leads us in the right direction as a community towards the future. Your participation means the world to me.

    "The forecast this week is a bright one. We have two solar storms, albeit weak ones, on their way to Earth now. With some luck, they will bring aurora down to high-latitudes and possibly even lower! We also have a returning active region (that will likely be numbered 2716), which has already boosted solar flux back into the marginal levels for radio propagation. It is a low-level flare producer, but GPS users shouldn't worry, reception should remain decent on Earth's day side, and at low latitudes, thanks to the weak influence of these solar storms. However, GPS reception might get just a little glitchy near aurora and around dawn and dusk. Be sure to enjoy the conditions while they last!

    "Cheers,

    Tamitha"

    See: https://youtu.be/P0pPPDrQ3Oo[6]




    Max White, M0VNG, sent this interesting article about tubes of plasma in the sky: https://bit.ly/1Ke74AV[7]

     

     

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for July 5 through 11, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.1, 70.5, 72, 71.6, 72.9, 72.1, and 73.3, with a mean of 71.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 7, 5, 4, 3, 7, and 8, with a mean of 7.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 8, 6, 6, 5, 11, and 8, with a mean of 7.9.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2008_DSD.txt
    [2] http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp
    [3] http://www.voacap.com/wrtc2018/
    [4] http://www.wrtc2018.de/en/
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/iaru-hf-championship
    [6] https://youtu.be/P0pPPDrQ3Oo
    [7] https://bit.ly/1Ke74AV
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 20 15:49:42 2018
    07/20/2018

    Over three weeks of blank Sun! Spaceweather.com reported 22 consecutive days with no sunspots as of Thursday, and there is nothing to indicate when sunspots will return.

    A few weeks ago, I thought sunspots would return by now, based on solar flux predictions. If we look back to forecasts from less than two weeks ago, such as this one, it shows predicted solar flux of 80 for July 17-19: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/070745DF.txt[1]

    Here we can see that higher flux values seem to correlate with increased sunspot activity: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2018Q2_DSD.txt[2]

    But since the July 7 forecast shown above, predicted flux values have been well below 80.

    Over the past reporting week (July 12-18), the average of the daily sunspot number was zero, same as the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux changed only slightly from 71.5 to 71.8.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 7.3 to 6.4, while average daily middle latitude A index shifted from 7.9 to 6.1.

    The latest prediction (July 19) shows predicted solar flux at 70 on July 20-26, 68 on July 27 through August 1, 70 on August 2, 72 on August 3-18, 70 on August 19, 68 on August 20-28, 70 on August 29, and 72 on August 30 through September 2.

    Will we see sunspots return during the August 3-18 period? Maybe, but I am not betting on it. But based only on predicted solar flux, it seems more likely than between today and August 2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 8, 12, 20 and 8 on July 20-24, 5 on July 25 through August 5, 8 on August 6, 5 on August 7-11, then 8 on August 12, 5 on August 13-15, then 16, 8, 10, 18 and 8 on August 16-20, and 5 on August 21 through September 2.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 20 to August 15, 2018 from OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on July 26-30, August 5, 11, 15

    Quiet to unsettled on July August 4, 6, 10, 14

    Quiet to active on July 31, August 1, 3, 7-9, 12

    Unsettled to active on July 20, 22, 24-25

    Active to disturbed on July (21,) 23, August 2, (13)

    Solar wind will intensify on July 20-23 (and August 7-11)

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Configuration of active areas in the Sun is changing again, which temporarily reduces the reliability of predictions."

    Interesting article on plasma jets and related activity deep within the Sun: https://bit.ly/2JBz7gu[3]


    Tamitha Skov says we are facing three more weeks of a spotless Sun?

    "Dear Tad,

    "With all the solar activity recently, it's hard to believe we have gone three weeks with a spotless Sun. Some scientists within the community are even saying we have arrived at solar minimum. Yet despite this sad news, Space Weather remains far from quiet. It seems our Sun is finding ways of staying busy. 

    "I too find myself busier than I expected as we reach solar minimum. In fact, just this past week I was invited to do an interview on Space Weather for CBS News. It was an amazing experience to visit the Los Angeles CBS studio, be wired up like a real news anchor, and be broadcast live via satellite to a sister CBS station in Minnesota.  Moments like this are becoming a larger part of this amazing journey. I am so grateful I get to share it with you. I promise to make available more behind the scenes footage of this studio adventure in my Patreon project.

    "Speaking of, last week I promised I would give you a chance to offer me voluntary feedback on the project before I begin pre-launch later this month. If you would like a sneak peek at the perks I am offering, here is the link to the tiers I have created.  Feel free to let me know what you think: https://bit.ly/2uyFixt[4]

    "This week the forecast brings another chance for aurora, especially at high latitudes. This is due to some fast solar wind that might bump us to near storm levels around Friday. Afterwards, unsettled conditions should linger throughout the weekend. Radio propagation will likely drop down to poor conditions by the beginning of next week, but hopefully the solar storm will help give propagation a boost on the night side of Earth, with auroral propagation possible. The weak storm should also help improve GPS/GNSS reception at low latitudes. Like I said, it's a busy week!

    "Cheers, Tamitha"

     

    Her latest video update: https://youtu.be/ut2MlfmRa70[5]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-Sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for July 12 through 18, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 72.1, 72.5, 72.3, 71.7, 71.9, 71.2, and 71.2, with a mean of 71.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 6, 5, 4, 9, 9, and 4, with a mean of 6.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 6, 4, 4, 8, 9, and 4, with a mean of 6.1.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/070745DF.txt
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2018Q2_DSD.txt
    [3] https://bit.ly/2JBz7gu
    [4] https://bit.ly/2uyFixt
    [5] https://youtu.be/ut2MlfmRa70
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Aug 6 20:38:54 2018
    08/03/2018

    After six days with no visible sunspots, a new one appeared on Wednesday, August 1, with a daily sunspot number of 11. As there was also only one day with a sunspot (also 11) in the previous week, average daily sunspot number for this week was unchanged at 1.6. The new sunspot is small and was given the number AR2717 on Thursday, when the sunspot number again was 11.

    Average daily solar flux was down from 68.4 to 68. Average daily planetary A index decreased from 8.1 to 5, while average daily mid-latitude A index went from 8 to 5.1.

    According to an August 2 forecast prepared by the US Air Force, predicted solar flux is expected to be 70 on August 3, 72 on August 4-9, 71 on August 10, 70 on August 11-17, 68 on August 18-20, 66 on August 21-23, 68 on August 24 through September 6, 70 on September 7-13, and 68 on September 14-16.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 3, 10 on August 4-5, 6 on August /6, 8 on August 7-8, 5 on August 9-11, 8 on August 12-13, 5 on August 14-15, then 8 and 12 on August 16-17, 5 on August 18-19, 20 and 12 on August 20-21, 5 on August 22 through September 1, then 10 and 8 on September 2-3, 5 on September 4-7, 8 on September 8-9, 5 on September 10-11, 8 and 12 on September 12-13, 5 on September 14-15 and 20 on September 16.

     

    Reader Max White, M0VNG, of Worcester, England sent this about experiments with ionospheric sounding over 50 years ago, both below and above the ionosphere: https://bit.ly/2LNGrvJ[1]

     

    Jeff, N8II, wrote: "There has been sporadic E to somewhere every day on 10 meters in the past week, but today, August 2nd, was absolutely amazing. It all started with working MW0EDX in Wales on 15-meter CW via sporadic E with a good signal at 1815Z. Then, I called CQ on 15 CW and DL4KCA answered. He was 589 and was using a 3 element SteppIR Yagi antenna; we tried 12 meters and he was 549 (my antenna is a 2-element vs 5-element Yagi on 15 and 10 meters), and 549 on 10-meter CW.

    "I worked Fred, F5NBX, a 10-meter CW regular, just after Joe and tried more CQs on 10 and 15 meters to no avail. Then, the big surprise happened at 1905Z when I heard Vlad, R2KW, with a 549 signal on 10 CW from Kaliningrad; with just one try I was in his log. Then, the following stations answered my CW CQs: UA3EDQ, RZ3AK, and RQ3A in Moscow, RU2K in Kaliningrad, and UX7IB and UX2VA in Ukraine -- all with S2 to 3 signals.

    "In the 1900Z hour, I had a few western European stations call on CW from Germany, France, the Netherlands (a new DXCC band slot since 1/17) and Belgium (a new slot). I then found OH0Z on Aland Island who was 549 (another new slot)! This was followed by 9A2018CRO in Croatia, and more from Italy, Germany, France, and England.

    "The 2000Z hour was relatively quiet with Hristo, LZ2HR, found at 2010Z and Q5 copy for the next 2 hours! Also, on 10-meter CW, I worked one each in Spain, Italy, and England.

    "I was about to shut down for dinner at 2100Z when a few new stations appeared. On SSB, Ian, MM0TFU, called in very weak followed by CW contacts with OH0Z now 559, as well as Germany, Spain, and Robert, S50R, in Slovenia. Then, at 2122-2151Z, conditions markedly improved and on SSB I ran 30 European stations, all in Germany, England, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Portugal. The last few minutes were spent chasing DX cluster spots and spotting some stations of my own on CW, working ZB2FK in Gibraltar (a new slot), KL7SB/VP9 in Bermuda (a new slot), LZ3ZZ, TA1D in Istanbul, Turkey (new slot), and MU0FAL in Guernsey at 2205Z. After a dinner break at 2246Z, the band seemed to have closed to Europe, but VY2CAK on Prince Edward Island was S9+.

    In my 47-plus-years of operating, I had never worked Russia, Kaliningrad, Ukraine, Aland Island, or Turkey on 10 meters via sporadic E during the summer months; it was an incredible opening!" (When Jeff says "new slot" it refers to the first time working a DXCC country on a particular band, as he explained above. - K7RA)

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK, in Lawrence, Kansas sent this on August 2: "Usually, the sporadic E season winds down in August. But so far it has been going strong. There was a big E opening on 6 meters August 1 from Japan to the southeast states. N0LL and I heard CT1HZE into Kansas August 1. On August 2, Europe was in for hours as far west as the Mississippi River. Why such good conditions? One wonders if there is a connection to the fact that this has also been a great season for NLC (noctilucent clouds). They form at 85 km altitude. The E-layer is 90 - 160 km high. Perhaps the same upper atmosphere conditions keeping NLC going strong may be influencing sporadic E. See Spaceweather.com."

    Note that Spaceweather.com has a gallery of images devoted to NLC: http://spaceweathergallery.com/nlc_gallery.html[2]

     

    Frantisek Janda, OK1HH sent the following from Ondrejov in the Czech Republic. See his bio on QRZ.com for more about him.

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 3-29, 2018.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on August 5, 10-11, 15, 23-24

    Quiet to unsettled on August 14, 16, 22

    Quiet to active on August 3-4, 6-9, 12, 25-29

    Unsettled to active on August 12, 17-19, 21

    Active to disturbed on August (13,) 20

    Solar wind will intensify on August (16-19,) 20-22, 28-30

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Reliability of predictions remains low."

     

    Dr. Tamitha Skov sent this, followed by her video for this week: "Last week I mentioned traveling was always an adventure and this trip has been no exception. After being unable to connect to the television in my hotel room (I tried with two separate computers), I settled for shooting my forecast using my mobile phone camera in a way it was never intended. The result has been an unconventional video to say the least! I almost didn't post it, as it's not up to my usual standards, but I figured you would forgive the imperfections in favor of the content.

    "Additionally, I apologize for getting this newsletter out to you a little late this week. Spotty internet connection while on the road has prevented me from sending it out until today. However, being mobile in Europe this week has given me the chance to reflect on how deeply entrenched space exploration is in our global culture. In fact, while in Amsterdam I came across an art installation showing an astronaut impossibly balancing between a chair and a flower pot (see https://bit.ly/2LRDIl2[3]). The Joseph Klibansky installation, called "Self-Portrait of a Dreamer," succinctly captures our culture's dreamy fascination with space and its intersection with objects in our more ordinary lives.

    "As I stared up at this massive structure, the symbolism began to sink in. I realized we are a lot like that dreamy astronaut, striving to blend our understanding of space with its impacts on our everyday world. I also realized that just like the astronaut, we too will one day soon strike a perfect balance.

    "This week's forecast brings us an Earth-directed stealthy solar storm followed by a small pocket of fast wind that will likely have little effect but could bring subtle aurora to high latitudes. Even though GPS users might experience glitchy reception near aurora, users at low latitudes should enjoy better than normal reception due to the light impact of the storm. The Sun also has two bright regions rotating into Earth-view this week that should help keep amateur radio propagation near marginal levels, so there is some good news for everyone!

    "Cheers, Tamitha"

    See her latest video here: https://youtu.be/MTl5ETzb4_4[4]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for July 26 through August 1, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 11, with a mean of 1.6. 10.7 cm flux was 66.2, 66.6, 67.9, 68, 68.3, 68.9, and 70.2, with a mean of 68. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, and 6, with a mean of 5. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 4, 6, 5, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 5.1.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2LNGrvJ
    [2] http://spaceweathergallery.com/nlc_gallery.html
    [3] https://bit.ly/2LRDIl2
    [4] https://youtu.be/MTl5ETzb4_4
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 10 18:51:30 2018
    08/10/2018

    Spaceweather.com reported on August 8, 2018 that "Solar minimum conditions are in effect. The Sun has been without sunspots for 39 of the past 42 days. To find a similar stretch of blank suns, you have to go back to 2009 when the Sun was experiencing the deepest solar minimum in a century. Solar minimum has returned, bringing extra cosmic rays, long-lasting holes in the Sun's atmosphere, and strangely pink auroras."

    For the third week in a row, we report an average daily sunspot number of 1.6. Why? It seems that in the past three reporting periods (including this week) there was only one day with any sunspots and each time that daily sunspot number was 11.

    Average daily solar flux rose slightly from 68 to 69.7, while average daily planetary A index rose from 5 to 5.7, and average mid-latitude A index changed from 5.1 to 6.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on August 10, 69 on August 11-22, 70 on August 23-31, 69 on September 1-18, and 70 on September 19-23.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 10-11, then 8, 10, 8, 5, 12, and 10 on August 12-17, 5 on August 18-19, then 20 and 12 on August 20-21, 5 on August 22 through September 1, then 8, 12, 12 and 8 on September 2-5, 5 on September 6-7, 8 on September 8-9, 5 on September 10-11, then 8 and 12 on September 12-13, 5 on September 14-15, then 20 and 12 on September 16-17, and 5 on September 18-23.

     

    OK1HH sent us this:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 10 to September 5, 2018.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on August 15, 22-24, 30

    Quiet to unsettled on August 10, 12, 18, 25-29, September 2, 4-5

    Quiet to active on August 11, 13-14, 21, September 1, 3

    Unsettled to active on August 16-17

    Active to disturbed 19-20

    Solar wind will intensify on August (16-19), 20-22, 28 -30

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Reliability of predictions remains low."

     

    Dick Ferry, K2KA, in Westford, Massachusetts had this 6-meter report: "On August 4, 2018 we had another epic opening on 6 meters from the east coast. From 2129z to 2254z European stations were coming in on FT8. There were so many, I had to scroll the receive window. I worked three new countries: SV9, E73, and YT9. Heard many more that I couldn't work: 4X, OD5, ZB, LY, OZ, TK, and UT7.

    "It was not quite as good as the June 13, 2016 opening which lasted over 3 hours, but very good. Sometimes it is hard to work DX on FT8 when there is a lot of fading. It's luck to catch the signals right. This opening was solid though with signals as high as +10."

     

    John Pieszcynski, W2FV, wrote: "I lamented to my wife that not only do I have to deal with low sunspots and a new in the Pacific Northwest (Washington), I now have to battle holes in the ionosphere! Thank God for FT8." Click here to see what John is talking about: https://bit.ly/2AUXDu4[1]

     

    Tamitha Skov sent this report on Thursday, August 9: https://bit.ly/2M5Imvz[2]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-Sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for August 2 through 8, 2018 were 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.6. 10.7 cm flux was 69.9, 70.2, 70.4, 69.2, 69.1, 69.5, and 69.6, with a mean of 69.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 5, 4, 4, 10, and 5, with a mean of 5.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 6, 8, 6, 5, 11, and 6, with a mean of 6.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2AUXDu4
    [2] https://bit.ly/2M5Imvz
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 17 19:53:24 2018
    08/17/2018

    Australia's Space Weather Services issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning at 0022 UTC on August 16. "Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Quiet to Active levels due to coronal hole effects. A period of significant southward Bz component could produce isolated Minor Storm levels."

    What is the Bz component? It is a component of the interplanetary magnetic field, or IMF. http://pluto.space.swri.edu/IMAGE/glossary/IMF.html[1] explains:

    "The IMF is a vector quantity with three directional components, two of which (Bx and By) are oriented parallel to the ecliptic. The third component--Bz--is perpendicular to the ecliptic and is created by waves and other disturbances in the solar wind. When the IMF and geomagnetic field lines are oriented opposite or "antiparallel" to each other, they can "merge" or "reconnect," resulting in the transfer of energy, mass, and momentum from the solar wind flow to magnetosphere. The strongest coupling --with the most dramatic magnetospheric effects-- occurs when the Bz component is oriented southward."

    A high-speed solar wind stream is expected to emerge from the coronal hole.

    Solar activity is still very weak. The previous bulletin (ARLP032) reported two days with a sunspot number of 11, on each day, for August 2-8, yielding the average daily sunspot number for the week at 1.6. This week's average was 3.4, based on a sunspot number of 12 on both August 14 and 15. That activity continued Thursday, August 16, also with a daily sunspot number of 12.

    Average solar flux went in the other direction, changing to 68.7 from 69.7 in the previous week. Geomagnetic indicators were higher, with average daily planetary A index shifting from 5.7 to 6.9, and mid-latitude A index from 6.9 to 7.3.

    Activity is weak and should get weaker, at least until two years from now in 2020 when we will probably reach the bottom of solar cycle 24.

    Predicted solar flux (August 16 forecast from USAF via NOAA) is 69 on August 17-23, 70 on August 24 through September 5, 68 on September 6-18, and 70 on September 19-30.

    Predicted planetary A index from the same forecast is 10 on August 17, 5 on August 18-20, 15 on August 21-22, 10 on August 23, 5 on August 24 through September 2, then 12, 8, 5, 5, 10, 8 and 8 on September 3-9, then 5 on September 10-11, then 12, 15, 8, 5, 15 and 12 on September 12-17, 5 on September 18-28, 8 on September 29 and 12 on September 30.

     

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sends us his Geomagnetic Activity Forecast for the period August 17 to September 12, 2018.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on August 22-24, 31, September 5, 9

    Quiet to unsettled on August 18, 25, 30, September 1-2, 4, 6

    Quiet to active on August 17, 19, 26-29, September 3, 8

    Unsettled to active on August 21, September 7, 10, 12

    Active to disturbed on August 20, September 11

    Solar wind will intensify on August (16-19), 20-22, 28 -30, September 10-12

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Reliability of predictions remains low.

     

    Here is an interesting article about cosmic rays: https://bit.ly/2KTiMcH[2]. The article was written by Dr. Tony Phillips of Spaceweather.com.

     

    On Tuesday, August 14, Dr. Tamitha Skov sent this message and video: "Another quick note to let you know my latest 'forecast shorty' is up for viewing on You Tube. However, I can report some good news since I shot the forecast. A new, albeit tiny active region is emerging on the Earth-facing Sun and is growing fast! This means both solar flux and amateur radio propagation might be getting a much-needed boost over the next couple of days. I will be sure to keep you updated on how this new region is progressing when I shoot my full length forecast in the next couple of days. Again, a huge thank you to the Patreon members during this pre-launch phase, who are making these 'forecast shorty's possible!"

    See Dr. Skov's latest video: https://youtu.be/fl325AOjItM[3]

    Dr. Skov mentioned the Parker Solar Probe, which launched August 12: https://youtu.be/AzDa9bJykBY[4]

    Also, https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/parker-solar-probe[5]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-Sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for August 9 through 15, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 12, with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 70.3, 69.5, 67.4, 68.1, 67.8, 68.7, and 68.8, with a mean of 68.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 11, 5, 5, 4, and 14, with a mean of 6.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 4, 11, 6, 6, 6, and 12, with a mean of 7.3.

     

     


    [1] http://pluto.space.swri.edu/IMAGE/glossary/IMF.html
    [2] https://bit.ly/2KTiMcH
    [3] https://youtu.be/fl325AOjItM
    [4] https://youtu.be/AzDa9bJykBY
    [5] https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/parker-solar-probe
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 24 18:12:22 2018
    08/24/2018

    Australia's Space Weather Services released this bulletin at 0700 UTC on August 24:

    SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/17

    ISSUED AT 0700UT/24 AUGUST 2018

    BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

    There is a chance of a glancing blow from a slow moving coronal mass ejection (CME) that may arrive over the next 24 hours resulting in periods of Active to Minor Storm conditions.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY POSSIBLE 

    DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION

    FROM 24-25 AUGUST 2018

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

    24 Aug:  Quiet with the chance of Active to Minor Storm periods

    25 Aug:  Unsettled

     

    And now, the ARRL Propagation Bulletin:

    Average daily sunspot number over the past reporting week was 13, up from 3.4 during the prior week. But average daily solar flux was down slightly, declining from 68.7 to 67.5. Average daily planetary A index rose from 6.9 to 10.1, and average mid-latitude A index changed from 7.3 to 10.4.

    Sunspots have been visible every day for ten days in a row as of August 23, since first appearing on August 14, following a lull since June 27, with only three days showing any sunspots at all after that, July 21, and then August 1-2.

    For a view of recent quarterly sunspot numbers and solar flux, check: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/quar_DSD.txt[1]

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on August 24-30, 68 on August 31, 66 on September 1-5, 67 on September 6-10, 68 on September 11-15, 67 on September 16-19, 66 on September 20 through October 1, and 67 on October 2-7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 8, 8 on August 24-27, 5 on August 28 through September 2, 12 and 8 on September 3-4, 5 on September 5-6, 15 on September 11-12, 12 on September 13-14, then 12, 18, 15, 12 and 10 on September 15-19, 8 on September 20-21, 5 on September 22-29, 15 and 10 on September 30 through October 1, 5 on October 2-3, 8 on October 4, and 5 on October 5-7.

    The above numbers are updated daily, usually after 2205 UTC at: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[2]

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 24 until September 19, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on August 24, 31, September 1-2, 8-10

    Quiet to unsettled on August 25, 30, September 5-6, 17-19

    Quiet to active on August 26-27, September 4, 8, 16

    Unsettled to active on August 28-29, September 3, 7, 11-15,

    Active to disturbed -

    Solar wind will intensify on August (28), September (10-11,) and 14-17.

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Reliability of predictions remains low.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH

     

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI, who often operates portable from a kayak in Northern California freshwater channels near Sacramento, wrote on August 19: "I heard about the recent burst of solar activity while vacationing at Lake Almanor in northern California. I noticed the solar flux took a temporary bump upward to 79 and I hoped for improved propagation. However, the only result I saw was increased levels of static noise (which temporarily reached S7 on my transceiver). The max usable frequency for me as a QRP operator was still 40 meters (CW)."

    Bil published an article in the November 2016 issue of QST about operating on HF from fresh waters and the antenna he built for his boat. I have not confirmed with him when he operated from the lake, and I cannot find a burst in solar activity until I look back at June 20-22. That must be it. The solar flux numbers at the Penticton, BC observatory (measured three times per day, although the local noon measurement at 2000 UTC is official solar flux number for the day) over those three days was 80.5, 82.1, 82.4, 82.1, 81.5, 81.6, 81.1, 80.3, and 79.9.

    We must look back at 2017 to find any numbers like that. I replied to Bil, "We won't often see improvement in MUF after a brief rise in solar activity. It helps, but needs to be sustained. Maybe in 2021, if we're lucky."

     

    Steve Sacco, NN4X, of St. Cloud, Florida wrote on August 17, and noted contacts and stations he heard using WSJT-X on six meters at 50.313 MHz Steve was excited about hearing 9K2GS (Abdullah Bin Hamad, in Kuwait) from 1307-1311 UTC, but could not work him. He wrote, "Multiple decodes, but no QSO. Still super cool, especially for this late in the summer Es season."

    He also logged K4MIL, W4TAA, VE2DLC, KB8ZR, N3DGE, N4OYT, VE9HF, K0PT, WA2TP, and N2SAB.

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote early on August 24, 2018: "A remarkable Es season, long lasting. Maybe the noctilucent clouds played a role?  Or upper atmosphere circulation."

     

    Dr. Tamitha Skov wrote on August 23: "I have a new "forecast shorty" ready for viewing on You Tube, but I wish it came without a warning label. A solar storm set to hit Earth on Saturday nearly mirrors Hurricane Lane, which is coming dangerously close to the Hawaiian Islands now and will hit by this weekend. At the time of this writing, the storm is a Category 4. The last time the islands got hit with a Category 4 storm was Hurricane Iniki in 1992. I've been getting messages from people, who remember living through Iniki, asking me if Amateur Radio will be impacted by this coming solar storm. They told me HF radio was a lifeline during Iniki and they wanted the comfort of knowing they would be able to rely on it again. All I could do was wince.

    "The Hawaii Emergency Management Authority declared yesterday that Amateur Radio will be the emergency communications of choice between the islands during Hurricane Lane's passage. As such, I will be sure to keep you updated on the impacts of the solar storm when it arrives. I might even do a live public broadcast if it looks like it could help emergency responders know what kinds of disruptions they might be facing and/or communications windows they might have. Again, a huge thank you to the Patreon members, who are making these 'forecast shorties' possible. Frequent forecast updates such as these prove so critical at times like now-- you are helping families and communities stay safe!"

    Here is her latest video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4j4g_qQaQp4[3]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-Sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for August 16 through 22, 2018 were 12, 11, 11, 15, 15, 15, and 12, with a mean of 13. 10.7 cm flux was 68.3, 67.3, 67.2, 66.8, 68, 67.8, and 66.9, with a mean of 67.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 13, 12, 8, 14, 7, and 6, with a mean of 10.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 14, 11, 8, 15, 6, and 8, with a mean of 10.4.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/quar_DSD.txt
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4j4g_qQaQp4
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 31 18:31:34 2018
    08/31/2018

    We just saw 15 straight days with visible sunspots, but it ended on Wednesday, August 29 with a sunspot number of zero. There were also no sunspots seen on Thursday, the following day.

    According to Spaceweather.com, in 2018 so far, we've seen 134 days (55 percent) with no sunspots. For all last year, in 2017 there were 104 days (28 percent overall) with no sunspots. During the last solar minimum, there were 528 days with no sunspots in 2008-2009, or about 72.2 percent of the days over the entire two years with no activity.

    The past reporting week (August 23-29) saw the average daily sunspot number rise to 17.7, from 13 over the prior week. Average daily solar flux rose from 67.5 to 70.6. Average daily planetary A index rose from 10.1 to 19.9, while average mid-latitude A index rose from 10.4 to 13.4.

    For HF operations, we want to see high solar flux and sunspot numbers, and low A index, a measure of geomagnetic instability. On Sunday, August 26 we saw high A index numbers from an unexpected crack, opening in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind spewed forth and the planetary A index rose to 76. During this period the planetary K index (a component of the A index) rose to 7 over a six-hour period. Seven is a big K index number.

    The middle latitude A index for the day was 34. But Alaska felt the full force of the geomagnetic storm, with an A index in Fairbanks (the College A index) of 90, a very high number. The College A index hasn't been that high since September 8, 2017 when it reached 110.

    Spaceweather.com reported new sunspot group 2720 is the first large spot of the next solar cycle, Cycle 25. The magnetic polarity is reversed from the polarity of sunspots in Cycle 24.

    Carl Luetzelshwab, K9LA, noted that the latest spot was not a high latitude event, which would be expected for a new cycle spot. Carl said there was a new spot possibly from the new cycle on April 10, but it was very short duration. Way back on December 20, 2016 the first spot from the new cycle appeared.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on August 31 through September 7, 67 on September 8-9, 68 on September 10-11, 69 on September 12, 70 on September 13-22, 69 on September 23-25, 67 and 68 on September 26-27, 67 on September 28 through October 6, then 68, 68 and 69 on October 7-9, and 70 on October 10-14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 31 through September 2, 8 on September 3-4, 5, 5, and 8 on September 5-7, 5 on September 8-10, then 15 on September 11-12, 12 on September 13-14, then 10, 12 and 8 on September 15-17, 5 on September 18-21, then 12, 18, 12, 10, 8 and 5 on September 22-27, 8 on September 28-29, 5 on September 30 through October 3, 8 on October 4, 5 on October 5-7, then 18 on October 8, 15 on October 9-10, 12 on October 11, 10 on October 12-13, and 8 on October 14.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 31 to September 26, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on September 2, 9, 17, 26

    Quiet to unsettled on September 5-6, 10, 18, 24-25

    Quiet to active on August 31, September 1, 8, 13-16, 18-20,

    Unsettled to active on September 3-4, 7, 11-12, 23,

    Active to disturbed on September 21-22

    Solar wind will intensify on September (10-11,) 14-17, (21,) 22-24, (25)

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Reliability of predictions remains low.

    Comment:

    I was asking around why no one (myself, though I hesitated) foresaw an immediate massive disturbance roughly one week ago. The answer is simple. In the analysis I neglected the freshest evolution on the Sun, especially the development in the active area 2720, which was much closer to the southern prick of north coronal polar hole than the previously dominant group 2719.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH

     

    Here is an interesting article on the possible transition to Cycle 25: https://bit.ly/2wt0WEe[1]

    I found a possible source of confusion in the fourth paragraph of that article, "the transition period from Solar Cycle 24 to Solar Cycle 25 was deep and profound" should say Cycle 23 to Cycle 24. I believe we are currently about to enter the transition to Cycle 25.

     

    The latest from Dr. Skov: "It comes as no surprise that I have mixed feelings about the collision of Space Weather and terrestrial weather this past week. On the one hand, aurora photographers got an unforgettable show over the weekend, with aurora views that rivaled the best from the biggest solar storms of this solar cycle. Indeed, the pictures are mesmerizing. On the other hand, however, I find myself squirming when I return to the moment I realized this solar storm was going to be worse than my worst-case predictions. The radio communications blackouts and poor GPS reception were painful to watch unfold during the largest hurricane to threaten Hawaii in more than 25 years.

    "In the end, everyone seems to agree that Hurricane Lane was a close call. Luckily, it didn't make landfall, but it's slow speed and intensity was enough to cause massive flooding on the big island, leaving some people stranded and without the comforts of home. Had the situation been worse, amateur radio operators would have been a life line of communications, while GPS-enabled search and rescue drones would have done life-saving reconnaissance. Thank goodness that was not necessary. I remember last year when Hurricane Irma hit Puerto Rico, a set of extreme Space Weather events made amateur radio communications and satellite phones nearly inoperable for a week!  We dodged a bullet this time. But we cannot count on that. With hurricanes and cyclones on the rise, there is little doubt that a 'perfect storm,' in which Space Weather exacerbates an already bad situation, will return sooner than we think.

    "In this week's forecast, I do my best to highlight the beauty of this recent solar storm, but also the danger. As the weather quiets down again and things return to "business as usual," I hope the memory of this perfect storm remains. It may not be all that often that Space Weather and Earth weather conspire like this, but when they do, we need to be sure we're ready."

    Here is her latest video: https://youtu.be/7qs2RLdHDqU[2]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-Sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for August 23 through 29, 2018 were 15, 29, 31, 26, 12, 11, and 0, with a mean of 17.7. 10.7 cm flux was 69.5, 72.4, 71.6, 71.1, 69.6, 69.8, and 70.5, with a mean of 70.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 11, 76, 26, 10, and 6, with a mean of 19.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 7, 12, 34, 20, 9, and 7, with a mean of 13.4.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2wt0WEe
    [2] https://youtu.be/7qs2RLdHDqU
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 14 16:10:23 2018
    09/14/2018

    We observed a return of sunspot activity during the past reporting week (September 6-12), with spots on four days, but not consecutive. Sunspots were visible on September 8-9 and 11-12. Average daily sunspot numbers increased to 7.6, compared to zero over the previous seven days.

    Average daily solar flux increased from 67.8 to 68.6, and planetary A index doubled from 6.3 to 12.6, while mid-latitude A index went from 5.9 to 10.

    The September 13 forecast predicted solar flux at 70 on September 14, 68 on September 15-22, 67 on September 23-24, 68 on September 25 through October 6, 70 on October 7-9, 68 on October 10-19, 67 on October 20-21, 68 on October 22-28.

    The same forecast over the same period supposes planetary A index at 8 on September 14-15, 10 and 8 on September 16-17, 5 on September 18-21, 12 and 8 on September 22-23, 5 on September 24-30, then 8 and 10 on October 1-2. 5 on October 3-6, then 12, 35, 15, 12, 12, 8, 5, 10 and 8 on October 7-15, 5 on October 16-18, then 12 and 8 on October 19-20, 5 on October 21-27 and 8 on October 28.

    As recently as September 9, the US Air Force predicted a rise of solar flux to 75 on September 17 before dropping below 70, followed by flux values of 70 on October 7-9. The day before, on September 8 the forecast showed flux values of 70 through September 16, 75 on September 17, and 72 on September 18-22. Predicted solar flux was 75 for October 10-14. This was considerably more optimistic than the latest forecast.

     

    From OK1HH:

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 14 until October 10, 2018

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on September 17, 19

    Quiet to unsettled on September 18, 20, 24, October 3

    Quiet to active on September 14-15, 25-30, October 4-6, 10

    Unsettled to active on September 16, 23, October 1-2, 9

    Active to disturbed on September (21) -22, October 7-8

    Solar wind will intensify on September 14-16, (21,) 22-24, (25), 29. October 1-2, 6-9

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH

      

    Max White sent this link from the Financial Times about solar flares on September 9: https://on.ft.com/2O2Zzmq[1]

    Here is the latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, on September 11:

    "My newest 'forecast shorty' came out on You Tube today as we were passing the peak of this solar storm. As I feared (and mentioned on Twitter and on Patreon numerous times), we did reach G2-level storm conditions. In fact, we remained at G2-levels for over 6 hours. This meant emergency communication over the amateur radio bands was non-existent. Luckily, it looks like the worst is now over. This is good news as several hurricane watch nets are activating as early as tomorrow in anticipation of Hurricane Florence. However, the bad news is the fast solar wind is ongoing, and it will take several days yet for the radio bands to fully recover. Let's hope they do before this Category 4 storm makes landfall. 

    "Since becoming an Amateur Radio operator myself this summer (my call sign is now WX6SWW), I have really begun to appreciate the extent that Space Weather thwarts emergency responders during hurricane season. Even though I do not live on a coast threatened by hurricanes-- Los Angeles hardly gets any rain at all, let alone a hurricane-class storm-- like many, I am beginning to dread this time of year. The concern worsens when I read articles published in reputable weather journals that talk about the intensification of hurricanes in the coming years. For all our sakes, I hope that climate scientists determine a Category 6 for hurricanes is not warranted (see the picture above). Until then, articles like this one will continue to make me very nervous. It really makes me wonder what the peak of the hurricane season will be like in a few years when solar activity begins to rise. 

    "Again, a huge debt of gratitude goes to the Patreon members, who are making these forecast shortys possible. Frequent forecast updates such as these prove so critical at times like now. Thank you for helping to keep communities aware so they can stay safe. You are my heroes." 

    See her latest video here: https://youtu.be/nbvCD8ixcoc[2]

     
    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].
    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7]. 

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8]. 

    Sunspot numbers for September 6 through 12, 2018 were 0, 0, 16, 12, 0, 14, and 11, with a mean of 7.6. 10.7 cm flux was 67.4, 67.5, 68.7, 68.4, 69, 69.4, and 69.7, with a mean of 68.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 5, 7, 21, 35, and 9, with a mean of 12.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 5, 5, 6, 15, 24, and 10, with a mean of 10.

     

     


    [1] https://on.ft.com/2O2Zzmq
    [2] https://youtu.be/nbvCD8ixcoc
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 21 16:29:43 2018
    09/21/2018

    Sunspots are gone again this week, with none observed since September 12. 

    Average daily sunspot number declined to zero this week from 7.6 last week. Average daily solar flux was unchanged at 68.6. Average daily planetary A index declined from 12.6 to 9.7, while average daily mid-latitude A index went from 10 to 8.3.

    The Autumnal equinox is this weekend, at 0154 UTC on Sunday, September 23, 2018. The weeks before and after the equinox are typically a better period for worldwide HF propagation because both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are seeing an equal amount of solar radiation.

    For some reason the space weather squadron at USAF has been unable to transmit their daily 45-day forecast of solar flux and planetary A index, so we are relying on a recent 27 day forecast from NOAA.

    Unfortunately, unlike the daily Air Force prediction, this one is several days old and only comes out weekly:

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on September 21-26, 69 on September 27 through October 1, 70 on October 2-9, and 69 on October 10-13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 21-22, then 16 and 12 on September 23-24, 5 on September 25-30, 8 and 10 on October 1-2, 5 on October 3-6, then 20, 30, 10, 18, 15 and 8 on October 7-12, and 5 on October 13.




    Here is the latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/h-a4B1JoeUQ[1]

     

    Mark Lunday, WD4ELG, of Greensboro, North Carolina sent an email titled, "Who says bands are dead?" and a list of stations copied on 15-meter FT8 around 2300 UTC on September 18: UT0LQ (Ukraine), A41CK (Oman), DL1NKS (Eichenbuehl, Germany), OG1AO (Finland), SP0QMP (Poland), W0ITT (Missouri), K3JYD (West Virginia), K4MIA (Florida), CO2RQ (Havana, Cuba) and XE1IM (Michoacan, Mexico). Mark was using a 40-meter dipole antenna hung at 59 feet.


    This week's geomagnetic forecast from OK1HH:

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 21 to October 17, 2018

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on September 26-28, October 4-5, 16-17

    Quiet to unsettled on September 21, 25, 30, October 3, 12, 15

    Quiet to active on September 24, 29, October 2, 6, 11, 13-14

    Unsettled to active on September 23, October 1, 6, 9-10

    Active to disturbed on September 22, October 7-8

    Solar wind will intensify on September 22-24, (25), 29, October 1-2, 6-9

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Reliability of predictions will be low again.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for September 13 through 19, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.6, 69, 68.5, 69.1, 67.8, 68.1, and 67.9, with a mean of 68.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 16, 8, 6, 11, 6, and 4, with a mean of 9.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 17, 11, 7, 5, 9, 5, and 4, with a mean of 8.3.

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/h-a4B1JoeUQ
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 28 15:56:43 2018
    09/28/2018

    The Sun remained spotless over the past week, and by September 27 the period with no sunspots was over two weeks. Average daily solar flux declined from 68.6 to 67.9. Average planetary A index increased from 9.7 to 10.9, while average mid-latitude A index declined from 8.3 to 7.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on September 28 to October 2, 70 on October 3-10, 68 on October 11-28, 70 on October 29 through November 6, and 68 on November 7-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 28-30, then 8 and 12 on October 1-2, 5 on October 3-6, then 20, 35 and 10 on October 7-9, 18, 15 and 8 on October 10-12, then 5, 10 and 8 on October 13-15, 5 on October 16-17, 10 and 25 on October 18-19, 15 on October 20-21, then 10 and 8 on October 22-23, 5 on October 24-27, 10 and 12 on October 28-29, 5 on October 30 through November 2, then 20, 35, 10 and 18 on November 3-6, then 15, 8, 5, 10 and 8 on November 7-11.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 28 to October 24, 2018 by F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on October 4, 16-17, 20-21

    Quiet to unsettled on September 28-30, October 3, 5

    Quiet to active on October 1, 6, 11-13, 22-24

    Unsettled to active on October 2, 8-10, 14

    Active to disturbed on October 7, 15, 18-19

    Solar wind will intensify on October 1-3, 7-8, 12-15, 19-20, (21-22)

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Thanks to Dick Bingham, W7WKR for forwarding this article by Alex Schwartz, VE7DXW on his automated space weather station, run with Raspberry Pi: https://www.raspberrypi.org/magpi/space-weather-station/[1]

    If you like his article, Alex would appreciate it if you will recommend it by clicking on the heart toward the bottom.


    An article about a previously overlooked pioneer of radio astronomy: https://nyti.ms/2OOLF7D[2]


    The latest from Dr. Skov: "You may be wondering why we've had so many solar storms lately. You might even have noticed since the last solar storm a week ago that we haven't yet settled down to quiet conditions. In fact, high latitude aurora photographers continue to enjoy some decent light shows despite the solar storm being long over. Just a few months ago, we seemed to go weeks without any significant activity here at Earth. So, what has changed? The answer is simple: Fall is here.

    "You may think I'm nuts. Few people tend to look at Space Weather as having seasons like terrestrial weather does. But in truth Space Weather seasons are very real! As you can imagine, this has very little to do with the Sun changing its weather patterns during the year, but it has everything to do with the way the Earth tilts with respect to the Sun. During the summer and winter, the Earth tilts towards the Sun in such a way as to lessen the impact of Space Weather. During the spring and fall, however, the sideways tilt of Earth relative to the Sun magnifies Space Weather effects. So just like terrestrial weather, this changing tilt results in seasons. Generally speaking, Space Weather at Earth maximizes at the equinoxes and minimizes at the solstices. I will be sure to go into this phenomenon in more detail in an upcoming live mini-course, so I can share the particulars of how it works. It's called the 'Russell-McPherron effect' and it's really pretty cool.

    "This week we are feeling the effects of the fall equinox in full swing. Although we don't really have any strong solar storms en route, nor are we being battered by any serious fast wind, we just can't seem to quiet down. We have been sitting at unsettled conditions for over five days now and we may have a few more days of this 'Space Weather drizzle' before things relax. Till then, all I can say is keep your proverbial umbrella handy. Some of this drizzle can actually help stabilize the upper atmosphere, which improves GPS reception and Amateur Radio propagation, so maybe it's worth getting a little wet."

    See her latest video here: https://youtu.be/xAeBAcBq4UE[3]

    Steve Sacco, NN4X, wrote: "Perhaps this is the enabling factor for SSSP (Short-path Summer Solstice Propagation) on 6 meters?"

    "These Electric Blue Clouds Are Made from Ice Crystals and Meteor Debris"

    NASA's PMC Turbo mission captured new views of polar mesospheric clouds from a five-day balloon flight over the Arctic. https://bit.ly/2OnP4O8[4]

    More about SSSP: http://www.ha5hrk.hu/files/SSSP_JE1BMJ.pdf[5]

    Steve also (along with Max, M0VNG) also sent info about World War II bombings and their effects on the ionosphere: https://bit.ly/2xX19Q1[6]

    Evan Rolek, K9SQG, who has been contemplating 40 meters wrote: "My observation about 40 meters is that it is virtually dead during the daytime hours here in Dayton, Ohio. The MIDCARS net hasn't been heard here in weeks whenever I have checked. However, in the evening after 9 PM or so, I can hear and work stations all over the country and there is plenty of space for many, many more QSOs. Fading isn't bad, and signals are strong, enabling lengthy QSOs. And if one waits until after 11 PM local time, working into Germany, Italy, Canary Islands, etc. is quite easy and all I'm using is a horizontal loop 20 feet off the ground! But, overall, 40 meters is not what it used to be years ago."

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for September 20 through 26, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 66.6, 66.9, 67.9, 68.4, 68.6, 67.6, and 69, with a mean of 67.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 27, 12, 7, 11, and 8, with a mean of 10.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 6, 20, 9, 5, 7, and 6, with a mean of 7.9.

     

     


    [1] https://www.raspberrypi.org/magpi/space-weather-station/
    [2] https://nyti.ms/2OOLF7D
    [3] https://youtu.be/xAeBAcBq4UE
    [4] https://bit.ly/2OnP4O8
    [5] http://www.ha5hrk.hu/files/SSSP_JE1BMJ.pdf
    [6] https://bit.ly/2xX19Q1
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 5 18:17:44 2018
    10/05/2018

    Sunspots finally returned on September 29, after over two weeks with none.

    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 0 to 9.6, and average daily solar flux increased from 67.9 to 68.4 over the past week, September 27 through October 3.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 10.9 to 7.7, while average mid-latitude A index changed from 7.9 to 6.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on October 5-18, 70 on October 19 through November 2, 68 on November 3-14, and 70 on November 15-18.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 5-6, 20 on October 7-8, 12 on October 9-10, then 10, 8, 5, 12 and 8 on October 11-15, 5 on October 16-17, then 10, 25, 14, 8 and 12 on October 18-22, 8 on October 23-25, then 10, 6, 12, 8 and 5 on October 26-30, then 8 on October 31 through November 2, then 20, 35, 10, 18 and 15 on November 3-7, then 8, 5, 10, 8 and 5 on November 8-12, and 5, 10, 25, 15, 8 and 12 on November 13-18.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 05-31, 2018 from F.K Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on October 15-16, 29-30

    Quiet to unsettled on October 12, 14, 27, 31

    Quiet to active on October 5, 10-11, 20, 22-26

    Unsettled to active on October 6, 9, 17, 28

    Active to disturbed on October 7-8, 13, 18-19, 21

    Solar wind will intensify on October 7-9, 11-13, 18-20, (27-28)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    From Australia's Space Weather Services:

    SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/22 ISSUED AT 0417 UTC/05 OCTOBER 2018 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

    Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to active levels on UTC day 7 Oct and to minor storm levels on 8 Oct. There is a remote chance that for short periods the geomagnetic activity may even reach major storm levels during this interval.

    The disturbance is due to the expected arrival of CIR (Corotating Interaction Regions) and HSS (High Speed Streams) associated with a large recurrent positive polarity north polar connected coronal hole. The aurora may be visible on the local nights of the 7 and 8 October from Tasmania, coastline of Victoria and Southwest coast of Western Australia.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 07-09 OCTOBER 2018

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

    07 Oct:  Active

    08 Oct:  Minor Storm

    09 Oct:  Active

     

    Following the recent temporary shutdown of the solar observatory in Sunspot, New Mexico, the local newspaper in Alamogordo ran this article by local astronomer Alan Hale, explaining some solar physics:https://bit.ly/2zQlwR0[1]

     

    Ted Leaf, K6HI, had a comment about the K9SQG 40-meter observations last week. "Forty meters may be dead for DX, but not for NVIS. We have a daily 40m net at 4pm local Hawaii time. Goes all over the islands, out to more than 200 miles. Lots of S9+ signals. For a very low antenna, tell me how well you get out for DX?"

    NVIS is Near Vertical Incidence Skywave propagation. See https://www.qsl.net/wb5ude/nvis/[2] .

    K9SQG wrote on September 28: "Interestingly, I've been having nightly schedules on 40 meters between Dayton, Ohio and Wimberley Texas, a distance of about 1500 miles perhaps, and signals both ways are +20-30 over S9 for an hour or more at a time. This is in the 9:30 to 11 pm range, Eastern time. I'm going to try earlier in the evening too and see about that."

     

    On September 28, Bil Paul, KD6JUI, wrote: "Here's your kayak guy, Tad. I was operating today from the boat on 17 and 20-meter CW. I was using a poor wire antenna but managed two contacts on 17 meters.

    However, I was amazed to hear France (F6HKA) and Italy (I8QJU) coming in loud and clear on 20-meter CW. I was unable to get any contacts on 20 meters but was surprised to hear these guys coming in like locals at around 1 pm Pacific time."

     

    The November 2016 issue of QST features an article by KD6JUI describing his kayak operations. http://www.arrl.org/news/kd6jui-wins-november-qst-cover-plaque-award[3]

     

    Charles, KW6G, wrote: "The equinox effects are definitely significant. Wednesday night, September 26, I worked an all-time new one for me: ZD9CW on Tristan de Cunha Island. He was on 40 meters around 0700 UTC and I got him on CW on the third call! I was running my Icon IC-7600 transceiver driving an Avon 1010 amplifier to a ground-mounted Butternut HF9V vertical antenna. I have copied him last night as well.

    "Longer propagation does have its advantages. However, after working 277 DXCC entities, finding new ones during this time of the solar cycle is pretty difficult."

     

    Regarding comments by NN4X last week about noctilucent clouds and e-skip, Jon Jones, N0JK, mentioned that he discussed this subject in the most recent World Above 50 MHz column in QST.

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-Sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for September 27 through October 3, 2018 were 0, 0, 13, 14, 14, 14, and 12, with a mean of 9.6. 10.7 cm flux was 67.1, 69.1, 68.7, 68.3, 70.1, 67, and 68.4, with a mean of 68.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 10, 6, 9, 8, and 6, with a mean of 7.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 8, 9, 4, 6, 6, and 4, with a mean of 6.1.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2zQlwR0
    [2] https://www.qsl.net/wb5ude/nvis/
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/news/kd6jui-wins-november-qst-cover-plaque-award
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 12 15:35:40 2018
    10/12/2018

    Last week this bulletin reported a return of sunspot activity on September 29 after a 16-day absence from September 13-28, but the new activity only lasted six days. As of Thursday night (October 11) we are now at seven days with no sunspots visible. 

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 9.6 to 1.6, while average daily solar flux rose slightly from 68.4 to 68.9. 

    Average planetary A index increased from 7.7 to 14.1, while mid-latitude A index rose from 6.1 to 10.3. 

    Predicted solar flux is 71 on October 12, 70 on October 13-18, 69 on October 19 through November 25. 

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 12 and 8 on October 12-15, 5 on October 16-17, 12 on October 18-19, then 14, 8 and 12 on October 20-22, 8 on October 23-25, 10 on October 26, 5 on October 27 through November 2, then 22 and 35 on November 3-4, 15 on November 5-6, then 10, 8, 5, 10 and 8 on November 7-11, 5 on November 12-13, then 10, 25, 14, 8 and 12 on November 14-18, 8 on November 19-21, 10 on November 22 and 5 on November 23-25. 

    Conditions should continue at marginal levels because of weak solar activity. 

    I keep checking the weekly Preliminary Report and Forecast from SWPC
    (see ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/[1] ) because once a month they update solar cycle predictions for smoothed sunspot number and smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux. For the past several years (at least back to early 2015) the projection ended in December 2019. It is widely believed that this cycle (24) should reach solar minimum in 2020, so I keep checking for projections that go past 2019, but so far nothing new is posted. 

    You can see the latest projection in a recent bulletin on pages 10-11
    at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/prf2249.pdf[2]. It shows the predicted smoothed sunspot number for October 2018 at 11. 

    Because the smoothed sunspot number is averaged over a year, this means that about half of the current average is made up of real sunspot numbers averaged over the past 6 months and the other part of the average is made up of predicted sunspot numbers over the next 6 months. So, as you look at the averages, for every month you look back, you see the results of more and more real sunspot numbers. 

    Note that in July 2018 the projected smoothed sunspot number is only 1. This may change as time goes on and more of actual sunspot numbers are figured into the average. 

    More detail on smoothed sunspot numbers: 

    http://www.sidc.be/silso/node/52[3] 

    http://www.astrosurf.com/luxorion/qsl-ssn-history-voacap.htm[4] 

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 12 to November 07, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. 

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on October 13, 16, 29-31, on November 1

    Quiet to unsettled on October 14-15, 17, 27, 31

    Quiet to active on October 12, 20, 22-26, on November 2, 7

    Unsettled to active on October 18, 21, 28, on November 5-6

    Active to disturbed on October 19, on November 3-4 

    Solar wind will intensify on October 12-13, (14,) 17-20, (27-28,) on November 2-5 

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6]. 

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8]. 

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9]. 

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10]. 

    Sunspot numbers for October 4 through 10, 2018 were 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.6. 10.7 cm flux was 67.2, 68.7, 68.6, 69.5, 68.8, 69.5, and 69.8, with a mean of 68.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 9, 6, 24, 21, 17, and 18, with a mean of 14.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 8, 5, 13, 16, 14, and 12, with a mean of 10.3.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/prf2249.pdf
    [3] http://www.sidc.be/silso/node/52
    [4] http://www.astrosurf.com/luxorion/qsl-ssn-history-voacap.htm
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 19 18:55:59 2018
    10/19/2018

    Solar activity increased last week. Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot number increased from 1.6 to 12.6, while average daily solar flux rose from 68.9 to 71. After six days with sunspots making a re-appearance (October 12-17), there were no sunspots on Thursday, October 18.

    Sunspot area was listed at zero on October 15-17, which means that the area was less than 10 millionths of a solar hemisphere. See ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt[1] for daily sunspot area.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter. Average daily planetary A index dropped from 14.1 to 7.4, and average mid-latitude A index went from 10.3. to 7.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on October 19-22, 68 on October 23-26, 69 on October 27 to November 4, 70 on November 5-6, rising to 72 on November 7-17, 70 on November 18-20, 69 on November 21 to December 1, and 70 on December 2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 10 and 8 on October 19-21, 5 on October 22-23, 10 on October 24, 8 on October 25-26, 5 on October 27 through November 2, then 22 and 20 on November 3-4, 15 on November 5-6, then 8, 5, 12, 8 and 10 on November 7-11, 5 on November 12-13, then 12, 18, 10, 5, 10 and 8 on November 14-19, 5 on November 20-21, 10 on November 22, 5 on November 23-29, then 22, 18 and 10 on November 30 through December 2.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 19 to November 14, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on October and on November 2, 13-14

    Quiet to unsettled on October 21, 24, 31, and on November 1, 8, 10, 12

    Quiet to active on October 20, 27, 29-30, and on November 11

    Unsettled to active on October 22-23, 25-26, and on November 5-7, 9

    Active to disturbed on October 19, (28,) and on November 3-4

    Solar wind will intensify on October 19-20, 30-31 and on November 3-6, (7-9,) 10-13.

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Again, there are changes in the configuration of active areas, so the predictability of the prognoses decreases, and their compilation is difficult. 

     

    From Dr. Tamitha Skov: Once again, we find ourselves in a waiting game with the Sun. Not only do we have a repeat offender-- a coronal hole that sent us fast solar wind last month is about to send some again-- but we also have several active regions firing small solar flares and mini-solar storms. This burst of eruptive activity is a bit surprising because the Sun has been in near hibernation for a while now. I captured my excitement in the above picture (unfortunately, no way to display the image in the propagation bulletin but watch the video). I taped labels "1" and "2" on my screen to show where two near-simultaneous eruptions occurred on opposite sides of the Sun on October 12. (Although I accidentally blocked the timestamp, the time of the first was 1355 UTC and the second was 1415 UTC.) I wanted to share this with you so when you watch the STEREO segment in the video, you will know when and exactly where on the Sun to focus your eyes! 

    So, the obvious question is, 'Will any of these eruptions hit Earth?' Right now, likely not. But it does feel good to watch active regions for solar storm launches again, even if this is only a momentary burst of activity. Nonetheless, if none of the recently launched mini-solar storms hit Earth, we still have fast wind from coronal holes to keep us busy, which arguably could last us through the entire solar minimum! 

    Speaking of, in the forecast this week I talk about the fast solar wind coming from the northern coronal hole and how long we must wait before it arrives. I also look back at how much it affected us last month and why its effects should be reduced this time around. Overall, this is good news in the wake of Hurricane Michael. A report I saw in News4JAX today said the North Florida section of the American Radio Relay League is still actively looking for emergency radio responders to fill the ongoing communication gaps across the Florida Panhandle. Knowing that the impact of Michael is still being felt, I am grateful that the bulk of Space Weather right now comes from predictable sources like coronal holes. There is no doubt I get excited seeing a flurry of eruptions occurring on the Sun, especially when they might hit Earth. But I must admit this week, I would prefer to wait for nothing. 

    Dr Skov's latest video is here: https://youtu.be/9uhUlyHhXzI[2] 

     

    NASA explains the difference between CMEs and solar flares. Thanks to ARRL Contest Update and NW7US for the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWjtYSRlOUI[3] 

     

    NN4X sent this link concerning "NASA Scientists See Gravity Waves from Storms in Earth's Atmosphere:" https://twitter.com/i/moments/1053091974746583040[4] 

     

    Jon, N0JK, sent this note: "A surprise 6 meter sporadic-E opening the evening of October 13. A minor G-1 class geomagnetic storm was in progress. Kp = 4. 

    "Stations in the Gulf Coast and South Texas had Es to the Midwest and Rocky Mountain states. K0GU (DN70) said he heard the K4TQR/b (EM63) for 2 hours. I heard the K4TQR/b on my mobile while driving on I-70 near Junction City, Kansas. Es is rare in October, the only month with less sporadic-E is March."

     

    Martin, WB5AGZ, sent this: "I don't know when it started, but I was checking a few high HF frequencies starting at about 0010 UTC on October 14 and found lots of activity on several CB channels, so I tuned up to 10 meters and heard several signals such as a local rag chew in the Albany, Georgia area on about 28.39 MHZ. At least one of the stations in the conversation was running on generator power due to damage to the power grid from Hurricane Florence. 

    "I then tuned up to 50.125 MHz, which is usually full of signals if there is a real band opening, but I heard no signals at all, nor were there any 10-meter repeaters audible from North Central Oklahoma. It appeared that the E skip was anemic and the MUF was probably between 28.5 and 29 MHz. 

    "The Winter (E[s]) season doesn't normally start until November, but Sporadic E isn't much for reading the rules and it can pop up about any time. Continuously active low VHF and high HF frequencies are a lot harder to come by than they used to be, so it pays to store a few frequencies in your receiver memories if you have them to spare. 

    "I have the following pre-sets stored, with all frequencies in MHz: In AM, all WWV frequencies plus all the CHU frequencies, the highest CHU frequency being 14.67 MHZ USB with carrier. Then there is CB Channel 6 in which folks run enormous levels of power, possibly trying to crowd-source an artificial ionosphere! Think HAARP only a bit out of tune. 

    "If you don't hear any skip signals on 27.025, you can almost safely assume there is not much happening between 25 and 50 or 60 MHz. 

    "If you have FM reception capabilities, definitely pre-set 29.6 and 29.62 or everything between 29.6 and 29.68 MHz as 10-meter repeaters make excellent propagation indicators when they are in use. 

    "I just step through them quickly to see if anything non-local is there."

      

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6]. 

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8]. 

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9]. 

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10]. 

    Sunspot numbers for October 11 through 17, 2018 were 0, 11, 22, 22, 11, 11, and 11, with a mean of 12.6. 10.7 cm flux was 70.9, 71.6, 72.4, 71.5, 70, 69.7, and 70, with a mean of 71. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 5, 14, 6, 10, 5, and 3, with a mean of 7.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 14, 12, 4, 7, 4, and 3, with a mean of 7.3.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [2] https://youtu.be/9uhUlyHhXzI
    [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWjtYSRlOUI
    [4] https://twitter.com/i/moments/1053091974746583040
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 26 21:17:54 2018
    10/26/2018

    We saw no sunspots during the reporting week, October 18-24, so average daily sunspot number dropped from 12.6 to zero. The dearth of sunspots continued Thursday, October 25.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 71 to 70.4. Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index declining from 7.4 to 3.3, and average daily middle latitude A index dropping from 7.3 to 2.1. 

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on October 25 to November 5, 70 on November 6-18, 69 on November 19-20, 68 on November 21 to December 2, and 70 on December 3-9. 

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 26-28, 8 on October 29-30, 5 on October 31 through November 2, then 22 and 20 on November 3-4, 15 on November 5-6, then 8, 5, 12, 8 and 10 on November 7-11, 5 on November 12-13, 12 on November 14, 5 on November 15-17, then 6, 5 and 12 on November 18-20, 8 on November 21-22, then 5, 8 and 12 on November 23-25, 5 on November 26-29, then 22 and 20 on November 30 through December 1, 15 on December 2-3, then 8, 5, 12, 8, 10 and 5 on December 4-9.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 26 to November 21, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on October 27, November 2, 13, 15-19

    Quiet to unsettled on October 26, 30-31, November 1, 8, 10, 12, 14, 21

    Quiet to active on October 29, November 11, 20

    Unsettled to active on October 28, November 5-7, 9

    Active to disturbed on November 3-4

    Solar wind will intensify on October 30-31, November 3-6, (7-9,) 10-13.

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Present changes in the configuration of active areas decreases predictability and their compilation is difficult.

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK, worked K5TR during the meteor shower on 50.260 MHz using WSJT mode on the morning (local time in Kansas) of October 22. K5TR also worked W0LGQ.

    Jon wrote, "The majority of stations on Ping Jockey are now using WSJT-X v 2.0. It is not backward compatible with earlier versions of WSJT-X. The new meteor scatter WSJT-X frequency is 50.280 MHz. I had a sked earlier with K1JT (he and I both using older versions of WSJT-X, but we did not complete). K1JT suggested upgrading to v 2.0."

     

    The CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest is this weekend. See https://www.cqww.com/[1] .

     

    Here is the latest video from Dr. Skov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TB-Xbi8P_xM[2]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for October 18 through 24, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.5, 69.6, 70.4, 71, 70.9, 71.6, and 69.7, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 2, 2, 4, 6, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 0, 1, 0, 4, 5, 3, and 2, with a mean of 2.1.

     

     


    [1] https://www.cqww.com/
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TB-Xbi8P_xM
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 2 18:43:17 2018
    11/02/2018

    At 2347 UTC on November 1 the Australia Space Weather Service issued this warning: "Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active to minor storm levels on UT day 03 November and active levels on 04 November. The disturbance is due to the expected arrival of CIR (a Co-Rotating Interaction Region) and HSS (High Speed Stream) associated with a large recurrent equatorial coronal hole. The approaching coronal hole has produced solar winds reaching 650 km/s at the location of STEREO-A. Similar effects are expected at Earth." 

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

    03 Nov:  Active

    04 Nov:  Unsettled to Active 

    For more on HSS and CIR: https://bit.ly/2Jw3syV[1]

     

    In related news, Spaceweather.com reported: "GEOMAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED: NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is monitoring a large hole in the sun's atmosphere, now directly facing Earth. A stream of solar wind escaping from the opening is expected to reach our planet during the late hours of November 3, likely sparking minor G1-class geomagnetic storms over the weekend. Visit Spaceweather.com for more information and updates."

     

    Another week passed with no sunspots, yet we received numerous reports of favorable HF propagation. Average daily solar flux declined from 70.4 to 68.6. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, up only slightly from the previous seven days. Planetary A index rose from 3.3 to 4.4, and middle latitude A index from 2.1 to 3.4.

    Solar activity will probably bottom out in the next couple of years. But where are we compared to the previous solar minimum? For the month of October, average daily sunspot number was only 4.5. Looking back, the average October sunspot numbers for 2007-2018 were 1.3, 5.2, 7, 35, 116.9, 73.8, 127.2, 92.1, 59.6, 29.1, 12.9 and 4.5. So, in terms of sunspot numbers, it appears we may be at about the same level of activity as the period from 2007-2008. 

    Predicted solar flux for the short term is 67 on November 2-8, 68 on November 9, 70 on November 10-17, 69 on November 18-19, 68 on November 20 through December 2, 70 on December 3-14, and 69 on December 15-16. 

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 2, then 25, 20, 15, 12, 8 and 5 on November 3-8, then 8 on November 9-10, 10 on November 11, 5 on November 12-13, then 12 on November 14, 5 on November 15-24, then 8, 12 and 10 on November 25-27, 5 on November 28-29, 20 on November 30, 15 on December 1-3, then 8, 5, 12, 8 and 10 on December 4-8, and 5 on December 9-16.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 2-28, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on November 2, 12-14, 19-20

    Quiet to unsettled on November 7-8, 15-16, 23-25, 28

    Quiet to active on November 6, 21-22, 26

    Unsettled to active on November 4-5, 9-11, 27

    Active to disturbed on November 3, (6, 17-18)

    Solar wind will intensify on November 3-4, (5-6, 9,) 10-12, (17-22,) 23

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Predictability of forecasts remains low and their compilation is difficult.

     

    Last Friday, October 26, Steve Sacco, NN4X, reported, "I've been messing around on 15 meters with FT8 today, and found the band to be quite good, at least here in Florida. I didn't realize how good until I checked PSKReporter." The image he sent seems to show coverage over North and South America, Europe, Greenland and elsewhere.

    On October 29 Steve sent this regarding the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly: https://go.nasa.gov/2PBJgkz[2]

     

    Fred, K9SO, reported on October 31: "What an opening we're having this morning! Who needs sunspots? Huge signals on 20 and 17-meter phone from Central and Eastern Europe into my Southern Wisconsin location. Todor, LZ1WR, said it best regarding my signal report: 'My gosh! You're coming in like my next-door neighbor!'"

     

    N0JK reported on October 29: "Despite a solar flux of only 69, the VP6D Ducie DXpedition has been successful working North America on 10 meters. They had a strong opening to North America on October 25, and again the afternoon of October 29. I was able to log them on 10-meter CW at 2231z on October 29 while on a break from work. My set up was a Yaesu FT-897 transceiver running 100 W to an MFJ whip/magnet-mount antenna on the car. It was a nice fall day with temperatures as high as 75 degrees F! VP6D peaked up to 599 at times. I heard many Midwest stations go into their 10-meter log including K0TRL in Leawood, Kansas, who made a contact with VP6D just before me. The Ducie operator was UT6UD, who did a great job picking up weak callers and keeping the pileup moving briskly.

    "With the F2 layer MUF often below 28 MHz to Ducie from North America, many days they were inaudible or very weak for modest stations. On some days high-power North American stations in the eastern worked VP6D on 10 meters by beaming southeast or south, on side scatter."

     

    Ward Silver, N0AX, pointed out a correction to my comment last week regarding WSJT: "WSJT is not a mode, per se. It is a software package or suite that supports several modes: JT65, JT9, FT8, etc.  The meteor scatter mode it is currently supporting is MSK144, replacing the older FSK441. Fldigi is the same thing - a program that can communicate using many modes."

     

    This weekend is the CW portion of ARRL Sweepstakes. See http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes[3] .

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for October 25 through 31, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.4, 69.2, 69.3, 68.3, 68.8, 67.1, and 68.1, with a mean of 68.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 4, 4, 3, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 6, 3, 2, 1, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.4. 

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2Jw3syV
    [2] https://go.nasa.gov/2PBJgkz
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 9 20:14:21 2018
    11/09/2018

    At 2244 UTC on November 7 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning due to a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream on November 9-10. Active geomagnetic conditions are predicted for November 9 and unsettled to active conditions on November 10.

    We saw another week with no sunspots, and the average daily solar flux softened from 68.6 to 67.7. Average planetary A index rose from 4.4 to 12, while average mid-latitude A index went from 3.4 to 8.1. On November 5 the planetary A index rose to 35, while Alaska's college A index went to 44, indicating disturbed conditions.

    Predicted planetary A index from USAF and NOAA is milder than the Australian prediction, with the outlook for November 9-13 at 16, 18, 12, 14, and 10, then 5 on November 14-24, and 8 on November 25, 5 on November 26-30, then 15, 20, 12 and 8 on December 1-4, 5 on December 5-6, then 15 and 12 on December 7-8, and 5 on December 9-23.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on November 9-12, 68 on November 13-16, 69 on November 15, 70 on November 16-17, 69 on November 18-19, 68 on November 20 through December 8, 70 on December 9-14, 69 on December 15-16 and 68 on December 17-23.

     

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 9 to December 5, 2018.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on November 14-16, 19-20, 23-26, 30

    Quiet to unsettled on November 13, 27-29, December 5

    Quiet to active on November 11, 17-18, 21-22

    Unsettled to active on November 9-10, 12, December 3-4

    Active to disturbed on December 1-2

    Solar wind will intensify on November (9,) 10-12, (17-23, 30) and on December 1-3, (4)

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

     

    Tamitha Skov posted a new video on November 4: https://youtu.be/y7WMfs2yLg4[1]

     

    D. Moore and Max White both sent this richly detailed article from the European Space Agency about space weather: https://bit.ly/2PKe9Dz[2]

    D. Moore sent another ESA article: https://bit.ly/2D9zGie[3]

     

    Bruce Smith, AC4G in Tennessee sent this on November 2: "Just wanted to share an exciting contact I had on 23 October at around 2230z. I was tuning 80-meter CW when suddenly, I heard a CQ. Following the greyline, I used my beverage antennas to contact VK9XG. I switched from the northeast beverage to the southeast and heard the CQs at 559 and made the contact, putting a new band country in the logbook.

    "A day or so later, while tuning through 160 meters at approximately 1205z, I heard my first Christmas Island signals with a report of 539. Several North American stations were calling, causing some confusion as they transmitted while VK9 transmitted, but it was still very exciting to hear them on Top Band. Their signals faded at 1223z."

    "I should have stated that this was a long-path reception using my vertical for my transmit antenna."

    Check out AC4G at QRZ.com for interesting details on his operation.

     

    Mike Treister, W9NY of Chicago, sent this report last week regarding the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest: "Despite reports of no sunspots, DX stations were plentiful during the contest, sometimes with signals above S9 at my Dune Acres, Indiana location.  And with a TH7 antenna aiming toward Europe, I had South Americans calling me off the back of the beam. I think that 15 meters must often be open when it sounds completely dead. This CQ Worldwide contest was a perfect example. I worked over 70 countries just on 15!"

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for November 1 through 7, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 66.8, 67.6, 67.4, 66.6, 68.3, 68.8, and 68.7, with a mean of 67.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 16, 35, 10, and 10, with a mean of 12. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 3, 7, 22, 9, and 8, with a mean of 8.1.

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/y7WMfs2yLg4
    [2] https://bit.ly/2PKe9Dz
    [3] https://bit.ly/2D9zGie
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 16 20:41:24 2018
    11/16/2018

    A single sunspot appeared on November 13-14, yielding a daily sunspot number of 11 over both days. The sunspot number increased to 13 on the following day, November 15. The average daily sunspot number for the reporting week (November 8-14) was 3.1, after no sunspots during the previous seven days.

    Average daily solar flux rose from 67.7 to 68.5.  Average daily planetary A index declined from 12 to 8.1, while average mid-latitude A index shifted from 8.1 to 6.3.

    There were no sunspots for 26 days, from October 18 to November 12.

    Does this place us near the bottom of the sunspot cycle? Perhaps, or somewhere toward it. Look at sunspot numbers in 2008-2009, during the last solar minimum, and note the long periods with no sunspots:

     ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2008_DSD.txt[1]

     ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2009_DSD.txt[2]

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 68 on November 16 through December 2, 69 on December 3-4, then 70, 69 and 69 on December 5-7, then 70 on December 8-15, 69 on December 16, then 68 on December 17-29 and 69 on December 30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 16-17, 8 on November 18, 5 on November 19-24, 8 on November 25, 5 on November 26-30, then 15 and 30 on December 1-2, 10 on December 3-4, 8 on December 5-6, 12 on December 7-9, then 10 and 8 on December 10-11, 5 on December 12-27, then 15, 30 and 10 on December 28-30.

    Spaceweather.com reported November 15-16 a geomagnetic unrest prediction for November 18 or 19, although that is not reflected in the forecast in the above paragraph. But the OK1HH forecast below seems to agree with Spaceweather.com in this regard.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 16 through December 12, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on November 16, 19, 26, 29-30, December 11-12

    Quiet to unsettled on November 17, 20-21, 24, December 10

    Quiet to active on November 22-23, 25, December 4-9

    Unsettled to active on November 18, 27-28, December 1, 3

    Active to disturbed on December 2

    Solar wind will intensify on November (17-23, 30) and on December 1-3, (4-6,) 7-9, (10)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    Steve Sacco, NN4X, in Florida reported a Wednesday morning (November 14) 10-meter opening to Europe using FT8.

     

    Max White, M0VNG, sent this article about the STEREO mission and observing comet tails: https://phys.org/news/2018-11-insights-comet-tails-solar.html[3]

     

    K6TW sent info about a massive solar storm in August 1972 which triggered explosive mines laid in the sea off Vietnam: https://amp.livescience.com/64062-mines-solar-storm-1972-vietnam.html[4]

    W7WKR sent additional info on the same story: https://bit.ly/2Fr3gCs[5]

     

    The ARRL SSB Sweepstakes contest is this weekend. See http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes[6] for details.

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for November 8 through 14, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, and 11, with a mean of 3.1. 10.7 cm flux was 69.5, 68.9, 69, 69.3, 68.2, 67, and 67.9, with a mean of 68.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 10, 13, 7, 9, 4, and 3, with a mean of 8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 6, 10, 5, 6, 3, and 2, with a mean of 6.3.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2008_DSD.txt
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2009_DSD.txt
    [3] https://phys.org/news/2018-11-insights-comet-tails-solar.html
    [4] https://amp.livescience.com/64062-mines-solar-storm-1972-vietnam.html
    [5] https://bit.ly/2Fr3gCs
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 23 19:07:21 2018
    11/23/2018

    We saw sunspots return recently, but only for a week, November 13-19. From last week's bulletin, average daily sunspot number rose from 3.1 to 9.4, while average daily solar flux rose from 68.5 to 70.8.

    That week-long sunspot appearance was sunspot number 2727, but last weekend another smaller sunspot appeared briefly, so brief that it was not assigned a number, but significant because the polarity was reversed, so it is a sunspot from the upcoming Solar Cycle 25. See https://bit.ly/2DTrdks[1] for details on the brief appearance.

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, pointed out that this was the second recent reverse polarity sunspot, after an earlier one on Friday, November 9.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average planetary A index dropping from 8.1 to 3.3, while average mid-latitude A index declined from 6.3 to 2.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 69 on November 23-29, 68 on November 30 through December 2, 69 and 70 on December 3-4, 71 on December 5-15, 72 on December 16-17, 71 on December 18, 68 on December 19-29, 69 on December 30-31, and 71 on January 1-6.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 23-24, 8 on November 25-27, 5 on November 28-30, then 15 and 30 on December 1-2, 10 on December 3-4, 8 on December 5-6, 12 on December 7-8, 8 on December 9, 5 on December 10-15, then 8, 8, 10 and 8 on December 16-19, 5 on December 20-27, 15 and 30 on December 28-29, 10 on December 30-31, 8 on January 1-2, 12 on January 3-4, then 8 and 5 on January 5-6.


    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 23 to December 19, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. 

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on November 23-25, 29-30, December 12-15

    Quiet to unsettled on November 26, December 3-4, 10, 16, 18-19

    Quiet to active on November 27-28, December 11, 17

    Unsettled to active on December (1, 5-9)

    Active to disturbed on December 2

    Solar wind will intensify on November (23, 30) and on December 1-3, (4-6,) 7-9, (10-12, 17-18).

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    From Tamitha Skov: "After the horrific fires in southern California this month, the Thanksgiving holiday holds a very special meaning. As you might have heard me mention before, several of my friends were recently evacuated due to the Woolsey fire and one even lost their home in Malibu Lake. It's no exaggeration when I say it will take years for their lives to return to normal. I feel very fortunate that my home was spared.

    While my family and I sit down to dinner and count our blessings today, I realize my family has grown a bit larger over this past year. It was just a year ago that I began writing these emails to you on a weekly basis. Slowly but surely, I've been sharing bits and pieces of my life with you both here and on Patreon. Many of you have graciously written back and shared bits and pieces of your life with me in return. These 'gift exchanges,' as I call them, have enriched my life so much. So much, in fact, that I can't help but think of you as part of my family on a day like today.

    So, while the Sun takes a breather and gives us a Thanksgiving reprieve this week, know that you all are in my thoughts. The current forecast may be a little bit on the dull side while we wait for a new chance for a solar storm, but I for one, have all the joy and excitement I need right here." Here is her latest video: https://youtu.be/_KQqg-F41us[2]

     

    D. Moore sent this: https://bit.ly/2DE14Ff[3]

     

    This weekend is the CQ World Wide DX CW Contest.
    See https://www.cqww.com/[4] for details.


    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for November 15 through 21, 2018 were 13, 14, 13, 14, 12, 0, and 0, with a mean of 9.4. 10.7 cm flux was 68.4, 71.1, 73.3, 72.3, 71.1, 70.5, and 68.8, with a mean of 70.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 2, 1, 3, 4, 6, and 5, with a mean of 3.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 5, and 3, with a mean of 2.1.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2DTrdks
    [2] https://youtu.be/_KQqg-F41us
    [3] https://bit.ly/2DE14Ff
    [4] https://www.cqww.com/
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 30 20:29:29 2018
    11/30/2018

    At 2335 UTC on November 28 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning for December 1. "The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a large and recurrent coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic activity to minor storm levels on December 1 and 2."

    Sunspots appeared on only two days over the past reporting week, the weekend of November 24-25, with sunspot numbers of 14 and 15. Average daily sunspot number compared to the previous seven days declined from 9.4 to 4.1, while average daily solar flux went from 70.8 to 68.9.

    It seems odd, but both the average daily planetary and mid-latitude A index remained the same as last week's numbers, 3.3 and 2.1, respectively.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 68 on November 30 through December 12, 70 on December 13-27, 68 on December 28 through January 8, and 70 on January 9-13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 30, then 24, 28, 12 and 10 on December 1-4, 8 on December 5-6, then 12, 12 and 8 on December 7-9, 5 on December 10-16, 8 on December 17-18, 5 on December 19-22, 8 on December 23-24, 5 on December 25-27, 16 and 24 on December 28-29, 10 on December 30-31, 8 on January 1-2, 12 on January 3-4, 8 on January 5, then 5 on January 6-12 and 8 on January 13.

     

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 30 to December 26, 2018.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on November 30, December 10, 12-15, 19-22, 26

    Quiet to unsettled on December 16, 18, 23, 25

    Quiet to active on December 3-4, 9, 11, 24

    Unsettled to active on December 1, (5-6,) 7-8, 17

    Active to disturbed on December 2

    Solar wind will intensify on November 30 and on December 1-3, (4-6,) 7-9, (10-12, 15-18,) 24-25

    Remark: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    Here is the latest video from Dr. Skov: https://youtu.be/GXKTsNMMkug[1]

     

    Mark Lunday, WD4ELG, reported last Friday, November 23 (too late for last week's bulletin) in a message titled "Excellent Conditions on the Higher Bands," I've been running FT8 on 15 meters, barefoot with a dipole antenna, and have easily worked 5R8 (Malagasy) and 3B8 (Mauritius).  I Also copied FR (Europa, San Juan de Nova, Glorioso, Tromelin or Reunion Island).  While Europe has been heard daily, and even ZS (South Africa) at least 2 or 3 times a week, it has been awhile since I heard Indian Ocean on 15 meters."

     

    Steve Sacco, NN4X, of Saint Cloud, Florida reported, "I made contact with 4K6FO (Azerbaijan) on 160 meters during the CQ Worldwide CW contest on 11/24 at 0340Z.

    "It was an amazing little opening. I was listening to him for a bit as his signal slowly got stronger, and then I commenced calling him. I noticed that no one in North America was doing the same, which was odd. I was able to work him, and I stuck around to listen for a bit and noticed that still there were no calls from North America. I learned later that he had failed to work anyone in the western hemisphere, except me, on 160 meters during the contest."

     

    Jeff, N8II, reported from West Virginia concerning the CQ Worldwide CW contest last weekend: "We sort of hit a new low in the CQ Worldwide CW contest this past weekend as I was not able to work any DX on 10 meters. Some guys in the US reported less than 5 DX contacts on the band. Fifteen meters was worse than last year, but strangely, as in the CQ Worldwide phone contest, there was a 15-meter opening to Scandinavia east to the Baltic States. Twenty meters was great into Europe; wide open from before 1200Z until starting to fading around 1700Z.

    "K3LR reported 11 DX contacts plus 2 Canadians (probably nearby in Ontario) on 10 meters, which means it was pretty close to dead by his standards."

    Later Jeff reported: "During the contest, 160-meter signals seemed much worse than some years. Little was heard outside of the US and Canada. Most of my contacts were with the Caribbean and northern edge of South America. A few of the loudest European stations (including 1 Russian) heard me, but there nothing from the Pacific. The big guns did well on 160, with 96 countries worked at K3LR.

    "I had noise on 80 meters that was loud enough to cover the weakest stations, but many that I could hear could not copy me. Europe is much louder here in November when the solar flux is higher. Working the West Africans was easy. Sunrise on Sunday was poor, although I did work 2 Hawaiians. I never tried much CQing, knowing it would not bear fruit. The noise did not hurt the results much. K3LR worked 122 countries and with a total of 1558 contacts on 80 meters.

    "Signals on 40 meters at around sunset on Saturday were weak. By 2400Z, southern Europe sounded much better. Sunrise on Sunday was disappointing on the band with no readable Japanese stations. I could not work anything from Asia, although I heard Finland, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and western Asiatic Russia on long path. All weekend, conditions seemed poor or closed to northern Europe on 40 meters. Western Africa was loud on the band and I worked Morocco, Canary Islands, and Madeira Island. There were many Caribbean and South Americans with good to loud signals.

    "Twenty meters was definitely my money band. Between about 1145Z and 1630Z conditions to Europe were superb on both days with no fading. On Saturday afternoon, we were treated to extended hours into Europe with good signals. It was amazing to work Russians at bottom of cycle near midnight their time, probably due to some auroral sporadic-E propagation! The opening favored farther west in North America, but I picked up Aland Island and Kazakhstan. At the same time, conditions were excellent to all of Africa with activity from all CQ Zones except Zone 34 (Libya/Egypt), the Caribbean and South America with many countries added to my log.

    "Notable rare countries logged were Rwanda, Madagascar, Senegal, Kenya, Uganda, and Fernando de Noronha Island. There were a few Japanese around sunset, but signals were down from just before the contest. Micronesia was worked. Sunday afternoon, I worked A35, Tonga short path (very weak), FK8, New Caledonia and VK2, Australia on long path. I finished with 929 20-meter contacts.

    "Fifteen meters was frustrating, but interesting for sure. I made almost 100 contacts, which was less than last year, and worked 8 fewer multipliers compared to last year. I caught Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Russia and farther south Ukraine and Moldova (first contact of the day at 1233Z) on Sunday. Best conditions were in the 1400Z hour. I also had good luck with Africa, contacting both 5R, Madagascar, and 3B8, Mauritius, in CQ Zone 39, Senegal in Zone 35, Rwanda in Zone 36, South Africa in Zone 38, and many in Zone 33 in northwest Africa. I could not break the OX, Greenland pile up, even though he had an S9 signal to me. Signals from Germany west to England were marginal, so the openings were of a spotlight nature. The Pacific was punk, with nothing other than Hawaii and New Zealand worked. Skip was generally quite long to the south making the northern Caribbean difficult to work."

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for November 22 through 28, 2018 were 0, 0, 14, 15, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 4.1. 10.7 cm flux was 69.2, 69.2, 70, 69.6, 68.6, 68.4, and 67.5, with a mean of 68.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 4, 3, 2, 5, and 3, with a mean of 3.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 4, and 2, with a mean of 2.1.

     

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/GXKTsNMMkug
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 7 20:54:32 2018
    12/07/2018

    After nine days with no sunspots, sunspot group 2729 emerged on December 5. The sunspot number on that date was 16. Average daily solar flux for the week was 68.9, unchanged from last week. On Thursday, December 6 the appearance of 2729 continued, with a sunspot number of 17 and the sunspot area increasing from 30 to 50 millionths of a solar hemisphere.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 3.3 to 7, while average mid-latitude A index went from 2.1 to 4.9.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on December 7-8, 69 on December 9, and 68 on December 10 through January 20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on December 7, 8 on December 8-9, 5 on December 10-16, 8 on December 17-18, 5 on December 19-27, 8 on December 28, 12 on December 29-30, 10 on December 31, 12 on January 1, 8 on January 2-5, 5 on January 6-12, 8 on January 13-14, and 5 on January 15-20.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 7, 2018 to January 2, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on December 10, 12-15, 19-21, 23

    Quiet to unsettled on December 18, 22, 25-27, January 1

    Quiet to active on December 9, 11, 16, 24, January 2

    Unsettled to active on December 7-8, 17, 30-31

    Active to disturbed on December (28-29)

    Solar wind will intensify on November 30 and on December 7-9, (10-12, 15-18, 24-27) 28-31, January 1, (2). Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

     

    The current Space Weather Highlights (ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/prf2257.pdf[1]) from NOAA shows updated predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar flux through the end of 2022. As of last month, the predictions ended in 2019.

    I've been curious to see their prediction for the upcoming solar minimum. If you look on pages 10 and 11 (somewhat obscured by a formatting error) you can see the predicted numbers. The prediction for this month shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December 2018, then declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1 during February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that through the end of 2022.

    I thought this cycle was supposed to bottom out in 2019 or 2020, but this seems to suggest a disappearance of sunspots in 2022. I wouldn't bet on it, even though there has been some scary conjecture about a future grand minimum. I am checking some sources and hope to see NOAA clarify this.

     

    Here is an article about observing plasma activity around sunspots to predict space weather: https://bit.ly/2zLmcH4[2]

     

    David Moore sent this article about a view of the solar North Pole: https://bit.ly/2EhQx3K[3]

     

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, observes propagation on the FM broadcast band, and says the winter FM DX season is underway. "On December 2, an FM-DXer near Hamilton, Ontario, Canada reported on the TV/FM Skip Log under the Dxworld website of the reception of five FM stations via Es propagation towards his southwest sector for twenty-one minutes." The list includes stations in Texas, Louisiana and Kansas, from 1551 to 1612 UTC.

    For now, at least, you can see the entries here: http://dxworld.com/tvfmlookback.php[4]

     

    Tamitha Skov posted this long video on indices: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVgZQqUYemc[5]

    Here is her latest video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lb6k3dLzPPM[6]

     

    This weekend is the ARRL 10-meter Contest. While solar activity is low enough that it doesn't support 10-meter propagation very well, there is always the winter sporadic-E activity. See http://www.arrl.org/10-meter[7] for more info.

      

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

     

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

     

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

     

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

     

    Sunspot numbers for November 29 through December 5, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 16, with a mean of 2.3. 10.7 cm flux was 67.8, 67.9, 69.4, 69, 68.4, 68.7, and 70.9, with a mean of 68.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 8, 12, 10, 8, and 5, with a mean of 7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 4, 9, 9, 5, and 3, with a mean of 4.9.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/prf2257.pdf
    [2] https://bit.ly/2zLmcH4
    [3] https://bit.ly/2EhQx3K
    [4] http://dxworld.com/tvfmlookback.php
    [5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVgZQqUYemc
    [6] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lb6k3dLzPPM
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 14 20:16:21 2018
    12/14/2018

    Our recent reporting week (December 6-12) had sunspots on five of the seven days, with an average daily sunspot number of 9.7, up from 2.3 in the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux rose from 68.9 to 70.7. Geomagnetic indices were moderate, with average daily planetary A index rising from 7 to 8, and mid-latitude A index increasing from 4.9 to 6.4.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on December 14-19, 68 on December 20-22, 70 on December 23 to January 4, 68 on January 5-18, and 70 on January 19-27.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 14-15, 8 on December 16-17, 5 on December 18-27, then 8, 12, 10 and 8 on December 28-31, 5 on January 1-2, 10 on January 3-4, 8 on January 5-6, 5 on January 7, 8 on January 8-9, 5 on January 10-12, 8 on January 13-14, 5 on January 15-23, then 8, 12, 10 and 8 on January 24-27.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 14, 2018 to January 9, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on December 14-15, 18-23,

    Quiet to unsettled on December 16, 24-27, January 9

    Quiet to active on December 17, 28, January 1-2

    Unsettled to active on December 29, (30-31), January 3-8

    No Active or disturbed days predicted.

    Solar wind will intensify on December 15-18, 24-27, and 28-31, as well as January 1, 3-4, 5-7, and the 8th.

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement"

     

    On December 11 N0JK reported on the ARRL 10-meter Contest from Kansas: "Much better conditions in the ARRL 10-meter contest this year than last.

    "On Saturday afternoon, had E-skip on 10 to W4 and W5, which allowed links on to F2/TEP propagation to South America. Running just 5 watts, I logged CE, CX, LU and PY stations via Es link. Double hop Es to HK, P4 and PJ2. Single hop Es to W4 and W5.

    "On Sunday the band conditions not nearly as good, but see the northeast states had strong Es to Florida. This in turn allowed them to link on to South America. See DX maps, which clearly show this classic setup. Also, strong single hop Es along the West Coast.

    "I experienced some weak Es in Kansas, and heard CO8RH, but he faded out while I was fiddling with my hand key. I was able to work 9Z4Y on 10-meter CW."

     

    Another report on last weekend's 10-meter contest was from Jeff Hartley, N8II in West Virginia: "Conditions last weekend were much better than last year in the ARRL 10-meter contest. My first contact beyond local range was VE2FK in Quebec at 0045Z (Friday local time) followed by contacts with stations in Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Dakota starting 10 minutes later. Then Maine, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick came through, followed by the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida, all on sporadic E (Es). At 0220Z there was a brief double hop Es opening to Colorado and Nebraska. At around 0300Z, Florida came back in and even at 0420Z Florida stations were still good copy but fading.

    "Saturday started slow until 1416Z when I found W0WP in Iowa, followed by one station in Wisconsin on scatter. The next opening was 1540Z when CE7VPQ in Chile was found on SSB (the first F2 contact) followed by Argentina and Brazil. Then, at 1622Z, Es started from Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, followed by Missouri, Nebraska, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Kansas.

    "At 1740Z, Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas were loud and soon after XE2HQI in northern Mexico was found. Southern South America was back at 1800Z along with some F2 backscatter contacts into the W8/9 call areas. Then, New Mexico was found at 1826Z on either double hop Es or F2 and K6AM in California at 1831Z.

    "For the next hour, a huge number of stations were worked, mostly in Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Nevada, as well as backscatter into Ontario and W1/2 along with several XEs in Mexican states, mostly on F2. A big surprise was being called by VK2BJ in New South Wales, Australia on CW at 1851Z. It was my best DX of contest!

    "The band stayed open to South America and Mexico until about 2035Z with my last contacts being with stations in Bonaire and Columbia. Another amazing contact was with ZL6YOTA (Youths on The Air) in New Zealand at 0200Z, probably via double hop Es into F2 on the other end.

    "Sunday conditions were much poorer after a very good sporadic E opening to Florida until about 1420Z. There were marginal openings to South America along with some scatter (meteor and ionospheric). W0AIH in WI was almost constantly readable on ionospheric scatter and a few other Midwest stations were worked via scatter as well. Starting at 1518Z, Aruba, Curacao, and Venezuela were all added as new countries in a spotlight F2 opening. 

    "Conditions were good enough to allow 63 contacts with Florida, 24 with Arizona, 9 with Mexico, and 23 with California. I also logged 69 locals in Maryland."

     

    The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: Whirlwind of a Season

    "Dear Tad: It's hard to believe I haven't written since Thanksgiving. Many of you already know I have had a challenging go of it over the last six weeks or so. Between the southern California wildfires coming so close to my home and now two members of my immediate family having emergency medical procedures, it's been a whirlwind of a season! I cannot express the depth of my appreciation for all the notes of comfort and encouragement I have received from you recently. Your kind words and patience through it all have helped me stay positive and hopeful during this crazy ride.

    "As for your recent emails, I am finally able to begin writing back. So, if you are expecting an answer from me, it will be coming in the next few days! Also, to play catch up, I recently did a live mini-course on Space Weather indices. This is a complicated topic that you can't find well explained anywhere. It has turned out to be one of my most popular courses and I've gotten amazing feedback about how helpful it has been to everyone. So, just in case you missed it but want to see it, I am including a link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVgZQqUYemc[1]."

    "Concerning the forecast this week, we have been enjoying an extended period of moderately fast solar wind. The weak storming kept us at unsettled conditions, which brought aurora to high latitudes and improved GPS at low latitudes over the past 10 days. However, the Space Weather will slowly quiet down as we approach week's end. Thankfully, not all is going quiet. Three new active regions are now facing Earth and are boosting the solar flux. This means amateur and shortwave radio should improve, especially on Earth's day side. With any luck, these regions will continue to brighten the Sun's face over the next week. So, despite conditions quieting down, between the recent aurora and now the elevated flux, it looks like the Sun is already beginning to spread the holiday cheer!"

    Here is Dr. Skov's latest video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcrsMDS5CkY[2]

     

    In last week's bulletin, ARLP049, I noted a new updated forecast for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar flux from NOAA on pages 10-11 at: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/prf2257.pdf[3]

    These seemed to show predicted activity headed for extremely low numbers out to the year 2022, with most of that year having no sunspots. I believe these numbers are suspect, because if you look at solar flux numbers they go to some low values that have not been seen ever before.

    These smoothed numbers are a moving average over a whole year. It shows the smoothed solar flux going down to 59, which has not been seen ever before. I inspected daily solar flux during the last minimum and decided to look at the six months on both sides of 7/17/2008. If I average the flux values for a year centered on that date, I get a value of 68.68. Around that time in 2008-2009 there were extended periods with no sunspots.

    So, I suspect there are errors in these predictions, and will wait for NOAA to clarify this forecast and probably correct them.

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for December 6 through 12, 2018 were 17, 16, 12, 12, 0, 11, and 0, with a mean of 9.7. 10.7 cm flux was 69.7, 70.1, 70.5, 71.6, 71, 71, and 70.8, with a mean of 70.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 10, 9, 11, 7, and 4, with a mean of 8. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 8, 10, 6, 8, 7, and 3, with a mean of 6.4.

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVgZQqUYemc
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcrsMDS5CkY
    [3] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/prf2257.pdf
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 21 20:35:39 2018
    12/21/2018

    On Wednesday, December 19 Spaceweather.com displayed this headline: "Solar minimum conditions are in effect", followed by "The Sun has been without sunspots for 209 days in 2018--that is, 59% of the time. To find a similar stretch of blank suns, you have to go back to 2009 when the Sun was experiencing the deepest solar minimum in a century."

    Looking at my own records, I show the average daily sunspot number for all of 2009 was 5.05, and average daily solar flux was 70.6.

    Examining data from the past two months (October 19 through December 19) the same values were 3.6 and 69.4, so we are clearly down in the same sort of minima.

    Of course, there are many ways to slice and dice the numbers, so rather than 3.6 and 69.4 from the past two months, looking at all the numbers for 2018 so far, we see averages of 6.6 and 69.9.

    Average daily sunspot numbers for the past week were 3.4 (there were only two days with any visible sunspots) which was down from 9.7 in the previous week.

    Average daily solar flux declined only slightly from 70.7 to 70.4.

    Average planetary A index decreased from 8 to 4.1, while average mid-latitude A index went from 6.4 to 3.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on December 21-23, 72 on December 24, 70 on December 25-27, 72 on December 28 through January 4, 70 on January 5-16, 72 on January 17-31, and 70 on February 1-3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 5 on December 21-23, then 8, 5 and 5 again on December 24-26, then 8 on December 27-28, then 12, 10 and 8 on December 29-31, 5 on January 1-2, then 10, 12, 10, 10 and 8 on January 3-7, 5 on January 8-12, 8 on January 13, 5 on January 14-23, then 8, 12, 10 and 8 on January 24-27, 5 on January 28-29, then 10, 12, 10, 10 and 8 on January 30 through February 3.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 21 to January 16, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on December 23, 25-27, January 10-12

    Quiet to unsettled on December 21-22, 24, January 9, 13

    Quiet to active on December 28, January 1-2

    Unsettled to active on December 29, (31), January (3-5,) 6-8, 14

    Active to disturbed on December (30,) January (15-16)

    Solar wind will intensify on November 30 and on December (24-27,) 28-31, January 1, (3-4,) 5-7, (8, 14,) 15-16

    Remark:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    Here is an exchange between Gedas Vysniauskas, W8BYA, and Jon Jones, N0JK, about their activity during the Geminid meteor shower, which peaked on December 14: "Hi Jon, I'm so excited, I just had to share this with you. After over 6-7 years of trying, KE7NR/P in DM54ah and myself completed a contact on 2-meter meteor scatter using MSK144 several days before the Geminid peak date. I had a good feeling when, right off the bat, I received this +20 dB decode from him:

     

    150700  20 20.2 1527 &  W8BYA KE7NR DM54

     

    Anyway, this was very late in the morning and it represents my best 2-meter non-EME DX at 1425 miles, and non-EME grid #373."

    "Gedas, I ended up with 9 Geminids meteor-scatter contacts on 6 meters. All while using MSK144. My best DX was probably a contact with W3CP in grid EM74. I also enjoyed some short-distance meteor-scatter contacts as with KV5W in EM22 and K0TPP in EM48. I Saw decodes on K0WDO in EM17, N0LWF in EN10, and several on KA9CFD in EN40, which are close in and would imply high MUF. I was on in the early morning of December 14 running 100 W to a 3-element Yagi antenna."

     

    Here is the latest video from Dr. Skov, the Space Weather Woman: https://youtu.be/wt-T-mbt5Ag[1]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-Sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for December 13 through 19, 2018 were 0, 12, 12, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 70.2, 70.8, 71.2, 69.8, 70.1, 70.4, and 70.2, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 2, 2, 6, 7, and 6, with a mean of 4.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 1, 1, 5, 5, and 4, with a mean of 3.

     

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/wt-T-mbt5Ag
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 28 18:59:34 2018
    12/28/2018

    No sunspots over our reporting week, December 20 - 26, so compared to the previous 7 days average daily sunspot number declined from 3.4 to 0. Average daily solar flux was 70, down slightly from 70.4. Average planetary A index increased from 4.1 to 4.3, while average mid - latitude values went from 3 to 4.

    Predicted solar flux is 69 on December 28 - January 4; 72 on January 5; 70 on January 6 - 13; 69 on January 14 - 18; 71 on January 19 - 26; 72 on January 27 - February 1; 70 on February 2 - 9, and 69 on February 10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 8, 12, and 10 on December 28 - January 1, 5 on January 2 - 4, then 10, 10, and 8 on January 5 - 7; 5 on January 8 - 12; 8 on January 13; then 5, 5, and 12 on January 14 - 16; 5 on January 17 - 19; 8 on January 20; 5 on January 21 - 23; then 8, 12, 10, and 8 on January 24 - 27; 5 on January 28 - 29; 10 and 12 on January 30 - 31; 10 on February 1 - 2; 8 on February 3, and 5 on February 4 - 10.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 28, 2018 to January 23, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on January 10 - 12, 22 - 23

    Quiet to unsettled on January 13, 19

    Quiet to active on December 28, 31, January 1 - 2, 9, 20

    Unsettled to active on December 29, (30,) January (3 - 5,) 6 - 8, 14, 17 - 18, 21

    Active to disturbed on January (15 - 16)

    Solar wind will intensify on December 28 - 31, January 1, (3 - 4,) 5 - 7, (8, 13 - 14,) 15 - 16, (17 - 19)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Al Brown, W1VTP, of Manchester, New Hampshire sent this email:

    "I manage The Vermont Net on 3,975 kHz at 2330 UTC. We have been having propagation issues since November. I recall similar difficulties back in 2009 and it straightened out somewhere around mid Feb 2010. I have used the foF2 map[1] put out by the Australian government for some time, but it doesn't always make sense. I understand that Amateur Radio operators are mostly interested in DX propagation, but some of us have regional nets with average distance of 100 miles.

    "Do you have any other explanation where I could predict propagation for a given night? I'm thinking it may have something to do with a disturbance in the magnetosphere and the effect of coronal dark holes when pointed at earth but do not have any reference material to back that up.

    "The closest thing I have is that foF2 map but it doesn't always work out that way."

    We covered the same issue in this bulletin in the past. This happens when sunspot numbers are too low to support local propagation on 75 - 80 meters. We might think of local nets in that part of the spectrum using groundwave propagation, but for wider coverage beyond line-of-sight it depends on high angle signals reflecting back from the ionosphere.

    This is why NVIS antennas are useful. When I asked K9LA about this, Carl responded: "The MUF can be low enough that high angle 75/80-meter signals go thru the ionosphere at night during the winter (especially at solar minimum). As you know, with high-angle signals, the MUF is pretty close to foF2, so foF2 could be a good indicator. You may have to modify foF2 a bit based on distance. And having an ionosonde near you would be best."

    Here is a site with a number of links to ionosondes:

    http://giro.uml.edu/IonogramMovies/

    Note the link to Millstone Hill, which may be the closest ionosonde to W1VTP.

    Click on the MHJ45 link.

    Clicking on that link goes to a page with ionosonde data from 1992 to 2018.

    If you click on 2018, it will take you to links for all 12 months of the year. Click on December, and click on the latest date, and you will see links for every 15 minutes of the day. I clicked on the latest one, which was for 0930 UTC at the time. It showed the foF2 value at 2.45 MHz, which is too low to support local high angle coverage for 75 meters, but 160 meters should work.

    I see there are links to ionosondes at Wallops Island (Virginia), Boulder (Colorado), Eglin AFB (Florida), Idaho National Labs, and many other locations around the globe.

    K9LA suggested that the net could QSY to 160 meters when this happens.

    This[2] is the ionogram I am looking at currently.

    You see MHz on the X axis and timing on the Y axis. A chirp signal is swept across the HF spectrum, and the wispy looking echoes are what comes back. The various timings reveal the elevation of ionized layers. This tool should help to get a handle on this propagation problem.

    From 0000 - 2359 UTC on January 1, is the annual ARRL Straight Key Night[3] operating event.

    Tamitha Skov put out this video[4] shortly after ARLP051 was released last week, so this is a little out of date. Check here[5] for her more recent dispatches:

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four US regions and 12 overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for December 20 through 26, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 69.8, 71.1, 71, 70.2, 69.5, 69.6, and 68.7, with a mean of 70. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 5, 3, 3, 4, 4, and 3, with a mean of 4.9. Estimated mid - latitude A indices were 9, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, and 2, with a mean of 4.


    [1] https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/5
    [2] https://bit.ly/2CBuC5A
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/straightE293208020night
    [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtE293208020mbt5Ag
    [5] http://www.spaceweatherwoman.com/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 4 22:30:39 2019
    01/04/2019

    Sunspots returned with the New Year, with sunspot numbers of 13, 16 and 16 on January 1-3. The new region was AR2732, and the area of the spot tripled each day, beginning at 10 millionths of the visible solar disc, then tripling to 30 on Tuesday, and 90 on Wednesday. This made the average daily sunspot number for the reporting week (December 27 to January 2) 4.1, compared to zero for the previous seven days.

    Average daily solar flux rose slightly from 70 to 70.4.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 4.9 to 9.3, and average mid-latitude A index from 4 to 7.6.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 72 on January 4-5, 70 on January 6-11, 71 on January 12-19, 69 on January 20 through February 2, 71 on February 3-15, and 69 on February 16-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 24, 15 and 8 on January 4-7, 5 on January 8-9, 10 on January 10, 5 on January 11-15, 12 on January 16, 5 on January 17-23, then 20, 12, 12 and 10 on January 24-27, 5 on January 28-30, 12 on January 31, then 15, 15 and 8 on February 1-3, 5 on February 4-11, 12 on February 12, and 5 on February 13-17.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 4-30, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interested Group compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecast since 1978.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on January 10-12, 22-23, 29-30

    Quiet to unsettled on January 13, 20, 27-28

    Quiet to active on January 9, 14, 18-19

    Unsettled to active on January 4-8, 15, 17, 21, 25-26

    Active to disturbed on January 16-17, 24

    Solar wind will intensify on January 3-7, (8, 13-14,) 15-19, (20-24,) 25-29

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    This forecast was compiled on January 3. The next one will be compiled on January 31.

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK, of Lawrence, Kansas wrote on January 3: "After a relatively lackluster December for sporadic-E, conditions improved at the end of December on to the first few days of the New Year.

    "I had 6-meter Es December 28 to Canada, and the 29th to the southeast states. Logged several stations running just 10 watts on SSB.

    "But the real DX took place on January 2, 2019. Six meters opened for sporadic-E around 1700z across North America and stayed open late into the evening. Around 2330z, Es links to afternoon trans-equatorial propagation across the geomagnetic equator set up an opening between North America and Australia.

    "VK3OT, VK3DUT, VK4MA and others appeared suddenly on the JT65 and FT8 modes on 50 MHz. VK4MA worked east to Illinois on FT8. Larry, N0LL (EM09) decoded VK3OT and VK3DUT on JT65. He worked NH6Y on FT8. I copied one decode on NH6Y on FT8. The Hawaiian stations made contacts in Texas, Mississippi and the Rocky Mountain states.

    "The 'winter surprise' North-America-to-VK/ZL openings have taken place in past years, with one of the occurring in late December 2015, but to occur with a solar flux of only 70 is remarkable.  Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA discussed the mechanism of these openings in a column he wrote for the World Radio magazine."

     

     

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, of Easton, Pennsylvania regularly monitors the FM broadcast band for interesting openings. "On Friday, December 28, 2018 at 5:49 pm EST (2249 UTC), I was monitoring the FM broadcast band on 88.3 MHz and started to hear Spanish music, then when the music ended a male announcer. The signal, which was weak for roughly thirty seconds vaporized, being taken over by a mix from WRAU in Ocean City, Maryland (50 kW), and WPPB in Southampton, New York (25 kW). The unidentified station's announcer sounded Cuban, which would be near 1274 miles to the south.

    "While watching the DXMAPS website, spots were starting to come in on 6-meter SSB via Es from Massachusetts to Alabama, a 1154-mile path, at 2349 UTC.

    "On December 29 at 0005 UTC, I picked up a 6-meter CW beacon from Maine to Manitoba, Canada, over 1315-mile path.

    "By 0018 UTC, the MUF climbed up to 72 MHz above FN04 (Barrie, Ontario, Canada).

    "Then, the unexpected happened. There were reports of 6-meter FT8 signals from Massachusetts to New Mexico over a 2133-mile path, which was double-hop Es event at 0032 UTC.

    "At 0037 UTC MUF shot up to 95 MHz above EN92 (London, Ontario, Canada).

    "There was a report of brief Es in the FM broadcast band from near Williamsport, Pennsylvania (FN11) to various stations south of Miami, Florida (EL95) up to 1118 miles away at 0055 UTC.

    "Forty-five minutes later, analog television channel 6 was observed, likely from Cuba. Now the western panhandle of Florida to the lower Hudson Bay-James Bay, Canada was coming in on FT8 with the MUF stabilizing at 95 MHz on a 1572-mile path at 0100 UTC with FT8 mode.

    "By this time at 0115 UTC I expected the MUF to begin crashing down into the HF bands. Nope - it rose 4 MHz higher to 99 MHz. By 0158 UTC the phenomenon peaked with a report of a weak analog television channel 2, CHBX in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario (EN76) detected in Akron, OH (EN91) via short-hop sporadic-e at 406 miles."

     

    Jeff, N8II, of West Virginia wrote on December 29: "The only ray of sunshine Christmas week was some long path into Australia on 30 and 40-meter CW and Japan on 40-meter SSB and CW. It had been nearly 2 years since my last contacts with Japan on 40 meters outside of contests, and I failed to work any in this year's CQWW competition as well.

    "The propagation conditions changed dramatically on the 29th (UTC) when there was widespread sporadic E just in time for the Radio Amateurs of Canada Winter Contest. I ran all 6 bands within 4 minutes with VE9HF in New Brunswick and worked several VE3s on 20 meters and many on 40 meters in the 0100Z hour, along with many USA stations. Some of the US stations were at very short distances in the 1/2/3/4/5/8/9th call areas on 40-meter SSB.

    "Ten meters was open to W4/5 with lots of activity. On Saturday morning 20-meters was open to Europe as usual as well as Eastern Canada, and by 1500Z to western Canada as well with lots of Manitoba and Saskatchewan activity. On 15-meter CW, I worked Slovenia, France, and England. While on the band I also worked stations in the W5/6/7/0 call areas, Quebec and Ontario on backscatter, and made contacts into Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia."

     

    Jeff Howington, AD0AK, of Fairfax, Iowa sent this on December 29: "Regarding Al, W1VTP's, inquiry in your 28-December bulletin, the Australian Space Weather Services has a web page at https://bit.ly/2sbceum[1] that might better address his needs. It provides Hourly Area Prediction (HAP) charts containing easy to understand graphical MUF (foF5) data for various locations. Al can select the Boston map from the pull-down list.

    "That map typically shows roughly concentric rings centered on Boston that are color coded to indicate the maximum usable frequency a Boston base station should use to reach a mobile at various distances. It's not a stretch to mentally re-center the rings to Al's station in Manchester to give an idea of where his signal will go from that location. Note that these maps are good only for one hour and are refreshed on the hour.

    I've used the HAP map centered on Kansas City with good success while running a NVIS net in the Midwest Region. Since nearly all nets are fixed in the frequencies they use, these maps can help select the best times to run the net, and they can also provide information as to which stations can best serve as relays to net control assuming you know their locations."

    Check the AD0AK page on QRZ.com for more on Jeff's interests and work at Collins.

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for December 27, through January 2, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13, and 16, with a mean of 4.1. 10.7 cm flux was 68.5, 69.3, 69, 69.4, 69.3, 71.9, and 75.2, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 24, 11, 10, 7, 6, and 2, with a mean of 9.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 19, 9, 7, 7, 5, and 1, with a mean of 7.6.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2sbceum
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Jan 12 03:09:23 2019
    01/11/2019

    In this reporting week, January 3-9, average daily sunspot number increased from 4.1 to 7.7. Average daily solar flux increased from 70.4 to 71.6.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 9.3 to 7.4, and average mid-latitude A index went from 7.6 to 6.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days appears to mostly toggle between two values, 70 and 71, with one exception. Predicted solar flux is 69 on January 11-17, 70 on January 18-19, 71 on January 20 to February 2, 72 on February 3, 70 on February 4-15, and 71 on February 16-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 11, 8 on January 12-13, 5 on January 14, 8 on January 15-16, 5 on January 17-23, then 20, 12 and 8 on January 24-26, 5 on January 27-30, then 10, 15, 12 and 10 on January 31 through February 3, 5 on February 4-11, 12 on February 12, 5 on February 13-19, then 18, 10 and 8 on February 20-22, and 5 again on February 23-24.

     

    No updated OK1HH geomagnetic forecast until January 31.

     

    Back on December 7, 2018 I mentioned a new revised solar cycle prediction through the end of 2022 in the current Space Weather Highlights from NOAA, and how some aspects didn't make sense. I hoped to see this corrected in the next monthly update, but alas the one that came out this month is unchanged, and inquiries to NOAA remain unanswered. Perhaps this is because the people who might respond are all furloughed during the federal government shutdown.

     

    This report is from Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, of Easton, Pennsylvania: "While monitoring the 11-meter Citizen Band at 7 pm EST (0015 UTC Sunday, January 6, 2019) I started to hear long distance stations along the central and southeastern states: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Then I began hearing stations in Alabama, Texas that were blending in with locals with the Es MUF at 59 MHz above Washington, DC [FM18].

    "At 7:34 pm EST 0034 UTC reports were coming in from central Pennsylvania [FN11] of FM broadcast stations that were skipping in and out from Melbourne and (EL98] Miami [EL95], Florida. Two minutes later, analog TV video carriers were observed on channels 2, 3, 4, 6; 55.250 to 83.25 MHz. No VHF-Hi band channel 7 [175.25 MHz] video carrier was heard.

    "Then the unexpected: I heard 91.7 MHz ZHN in Nassau, Bahamas [FL15]. The MUF had even reached the top end of the band, 108 MHz.

    "At 0040 UTC, if we account for space weather, the Aurora Forecast Ovation-Prime Model hemispheric power registered 36.84 GW. Solar Flux Index was 71.

    "Then, from 8:36-9:05 EST (0136-0205 UTC), signals from local and semi-local stations were vaporizing while distant station's signal strengths were becoming stronger with a fair amount of fading as the Es was heading westerly from Florida. The Es paths were north to south.

    "This is when the Es MUF reached 99 MHz over Missouri [EM37]. This is the time when it seemed as if there was a focused duct over my home to all those stations mentioned above, as far west as Houston, Texas.

    "A TV DXer in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania [FN20] in the Lehigh Valley detected Cuban analog television channels on three and five with a baseball game in effect."

     

    [Update] - He later reported to me that he was scanning the digital TV low-band channels and something was detected on channel 5, but the video did not decode. My reply to Mike: "I suspect the non-decoded signal was KCWX running 23.7 kW effective radiated power (ERP) from Fredericksburg (north of San Antonio), Texas at a distance of 1491 miles, azimuth 250 degrees."

     

    I also received a report concerning low-frequency propagation from Arliss Thompson, W7XU, of Parker, South Dakota (be sure to check out his bio page on QRZ.com): "I'm writing to pass along a 2200-meter (136 kHz) propagation report from here in South Dakota (EN13), portions of which you may find interesting.

    "While I have been monitoring 630 meters for more than a year, it was just within the past 2 weeks or so that I tuned down to 136 kHz to check out the 2200-meter band.

    "I was rather surprised to copy two experimental stations in Arizona (WH2XXP and WH2XND) the first time I listened to the band. Since then, I have also copied the WSPR transmissions of stations in British Columbia, Washington, Utah, Illinois, Texas, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Maine. I have also copied a CW beacon from Colorado on the band.

    "What was amazing to me, however, was that on 5 January 2019 (UTC), I copied the WSPR signal from EA5DOM in grid square IM98. His signal first appeared at 0042 UTC and was then decoded again several times around 0200 UTC. Signal strength ranged from -28 to -31. The distance between our stations is approximately 7660 km.

    "I later read reports of some US stations (including K9KFR in Indiana) working England on 630-meters that same evening.

    "My station consists of an Elecraft K3S transceiver and a 1500-foot Beverage antenna."

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[1]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[2].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[3]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[4].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[5].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[6].

    Sunspot numbers for January 3 through 9, 2019 were 16, 13, 13, 12, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 7.7. 10.7 cm flux was 72.6, 71.5, 71.1, 72, 71.5, 71.3, and 71.5, with a mean of 71.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 15, 9, 7, 6, and 4, with a mean of 7.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 7, 11, 9, 6, 5, and 3, with a mean of 6.1.

     

     


    [1] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [2] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [3] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 18 21:28:54 2019
    01/18/2019

    No sunspots seen since January 6, so average daily sunspot numbers declined from 7.7 to 0 for the current reporting week, January 10-16. Average daily solar flux dropped from 71.6 to 69.4 over the same period. Average daily planetary A index went from 7.4 to 4.9, and average mid-latitude A index went from 6.1 to 4.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on January 18-20, 72 on January 21-24, 71 on January 25 through February 1, 70 on February 2-4, 69 on February 5-13, 70 on February 14-15, 71 on February 16-28, and 70 on March 1-3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 18-22, then 8, 20, 12 and 8 on January 23-26, 5 on January 27-30, then 10, 15, 12 and 8 on January 31 through February 3, 5 on February 4-10, then 12 and 10 on February 11-12, 5 on February 13-19, then 18, 10 and 8 on February 20-22, 5 on February 23-26, then 12, 18, 15, 10 and 5 on February 27 through March 3.

    Predicted smoothed sunspot number for January 2019 is 9. This predicted smoothed sunspot number is what you want to use this month with propagation prediction programs such as W6ELprop, rather than daily sunspot numbers. K9LA explains: "Why should we use the smoothed sunspot number (or smoothed solar flux) and not the daily solar flux? To develop the model of the ionosphere for our propagation predictions, solar data was compared to ionosphere data. The best correlation was between the smoothed sunspot number (or smoothed solar flux) and monthly median ionospheric parameters. Thus, the model was designed to take a smoothed solar index. The "monthly median" aspect means that our predictions are statistical in nature."

     

    No geomagnetic forecast from OK1HH again this week, until he resumes his predictions on January 31. But we have a similar prediction from Tomas Bayer of the Institute of Geophysics at the Department of Geomagnetism at Budkov observatory in Prague.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 18-24, 2019.

    Quiet: Jan 18-23

    Unsettled: Jan 19-21

    Active: Jan 24-25

    Minor storm: possible Jan 24

    Geomagnetic activity summary:

    We expect an active episode at the end of the forecast period, January 24-25. This episode can peak as a minor storm event although it need not exceed local K-index of 4. Nevertheless, a minor storm event is possible. Until this event, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions, from Friday, January 18 until Wednesday, January 23, we expect quiet conditions only with an isolated unsettled event.

     

    The latest from Dr. Skov: "I just returned from the American Meteorological Society (AMS) meeting held in Phoenix, Arizona and the air feels electric. Even though the government absences were sorely noted (#WeMissNOAA hashtags were everywhere for example), the meeting was still a buzz of activity.

    "Strangely enough, the cancellations caused by the furlough helped the Space Weather Conference, as it brought many terrestrial meteorologists out of their niche looking for interesting talks to see. Between the Parker Solar Probe and the recently declassified military report on the 1972 super solar storm, we had Space Weather stories to tell.  But what stuck out even more than these stories were the set of talks Mike Cook and I did on this Space Weather community. It was all about you and how you have trained us scientists in the art of Space Weather broadcasting.

    "Luckily, I've now learned to come to meetings equipped with multiple cameras. If you have taught me anything on this journey, it's that you want to share in it with me-- and over the next few months, I plan to share it all. I will be releasing interviews and chats, interpretations of talks, 360-degree videos, and more. Some highlights will be included in my forecast videos (like the Parker Solar Probe interview included this week). However, much more will be found on Patreon, where I can freely post videos without worrying about time limitations. I can also post extra information, images, and charts that can serve as additional resources. This is such an exciting time!

    "In the forecast this week, Space Weather may be settling down, but the excitement surely hasn't as we dive into the promising new era of the Parker Solar Probe. During his cameo, Nour Raouafi, the Project Scientist for the mission, says what the Probe is observing will forever change how we look at the Sun, its corona, and the solar wind. Although the data hasn't been made public yet (in fact, I was prohibited from taking pictures during Nour's talk), what we have seen thus far is simply stunning. It could fundamentally change our entire picture of how Space Weather reaches Earth."

    Here is Dr. Skov's latest video: https://youtu.be/4stoV_znpow[1]

     

    David Moore and Max White, M0VNG passed this along, about a comprehensive model of the life of a solar flare: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190116122654.htm[2]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for January 10 through 16, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.1, 68.1, 69.6, 68.9, 70, 69.5, and 69.7, with a mean of 69.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 7, 3, 3, 6, 5, and 6, with a mean of 4.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 5, 2, 3, 6, 4, and 5, with a mean of 4.

     

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/4stoV_znpow
    [2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190116122654.htm
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 25 23:50:31 2019
    01/25/2019

    Sunspot group 2733 appeared on Tuesday with a sunspot number of 18, and on Wednesday it increased in size with a sunspot number of 19, which was also the sunspot number on Thursday, January 24. See images of this sunspot group at http://www.solarham.net/regions/2733.htm[1]. This sunspot is a remnant of old Solar Cycle 24. Average daily sunspot numbers increased to 5.3, from zero the previous week. Average daily solar flux increased slightly from 69.4 to 69.8.

    The average daily planetary A index increased from 4.9 to 5.9, while mid-latitude A index was unchanged at 4. The predicted solar flux is 72 on January 25-29, 70 on January 30 through February 4, 69 on February 5-16, 71 on February 17-28, 70 on March 1-3, and 69 on March 4-10.

    The planetary A index is predicted at 18, 10 and 3 on January 25-27, 5 on January 28-30, 8 on January 31, then 15, 12 and 8 on February 1-3, 5 on February 4-18, then 18, 25, 18 and 10 on February 19-22, 5 on February 23-26, then 10 and 15 on February 27-28, 12 and 8 on March 1-2, and 5 on March 3-10.

    Tomas Bayer of the Institute of Geophysics of ASCR, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov observatory sends this geomagnetic activity forecast for January 25-31, 2019:

    Quiet: Jan 27-30

    Unsettled: Jan 25-26, 31

    Active: Jan 31

    Minor storm: 0

    Major storm: 0

    Severe storm: 0

    Geomagnetic activity summary:

    After the last active event (January 23, local K-index has reached 4) we expect geomagnetic activity to decrease to quiet to unsettled level. We expect the most unsettled episode about January 25 and 26, and, additionally, at the end of forecast period, January 31. Between these events, January 27-30, we expect quiet conditions.

    Next week we will return to geomagnetic forecasts from Frantisek Janda, OK1HH. He is on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/OK1HH[2].

    Dr. Skov's latest video, although by now several days old: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlLjlHjffzY[3]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for January 17 through 23, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 18, and 19, with a mean of 5.3. 10.7 cm flux was 68.6, 68.8, 69.7, 69.2, 69.9, 70.7, and 71.5, with a mean of 69.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 4, 4, 4, 3, and 13, with a mean of 5.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 5, 2, 2, 2, 2, and 10, with a mean of 4.

     

     


    [1] http://www.solarham.net/regions/2733.htm
    [2] https://www.facebook.com/OK1HH
    [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlLjlHjffzY
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Feb 2 00:09:53 2019
    02/01/2019

    The past week saw increased solar activity, with average daily sunspot numbers rising from 5.3 to 19.6 and average daily solar flux from 69.8 to 74.5. We haven't seen such strong activity since the beginning of last summer, when ARLP016 in 2018 reported average daily sunspot number at 22.6 and average daily solar flux at 75.3.

    But sunspots only persisted from January 22 through January 30, and on January 31 they were gone.

    Predicted solar flux is 72 on February 1-8, 69 on February 9-12, 72 on February 13-27, 70 on February 28 through March 3, 69 on March 4-11, and 72 on March 12-17. Predicted planetary A index is 18, 12, 10, 8, 12 and 8 on February 1-6, 5 on February 7-18, then 12, 20, 12 and 8 on February 19-22, 5 on February 23-26, then 8, 18, 10 and 8 on February 27 through March 2, and 5 on March 3-17.

    At 2314 UTC on February 31 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning for the following day due to a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. There is a chance of minor storm on Friday.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 1-27, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on February 4-6, 8-9, 14, 24-26

    Quiet to unsettled on February 7, 10, 17, 23, 27

    Quiet to active on February 2-3, 13, 16, 18, 21-22

    Unsettled to active on February 1, 11-12, 15, 20

    Active to disturbed on February 19

    Solar wind will intensify on February (1,) 2-3, (4, 7, 19,) 20-21, (22)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    Report received from Jon Jones, N0JK, regarding FT8 activity on January 27: "Six-meter sporadic-E continued through the last week of January. Most of the paths favored the Gulf Coast states and Mexico. Winter sporadic-E tends to occur more frequently in these parts of North America."

    I received a -21 report (21 dB below noise) from W4TAA EL87 at 0035z: "I copied many decodes from XE2JS operating portable in rare grid DL78, but no luck getting a reply.  I copied XE2JS working N8JX and KF8MY."

     

    The latest video from Dr. Skov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDPdyxfNWdA[1]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for January 24 through 30, 2019 were 19, 27, 26, 22, 16, 15, and 12, with a mean of 19.6. 10.7 cm flux was 73.5, 73.1, 75.8, 75.1, 76.6, 75, and 72.4, with a mean of 74.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 19, 13, 7, 5, 1, 2, and 2, with a mean of 7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 13, 10, 5, 3, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 4.4.

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDPdyxfNWdA
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 8 20:38:24 2019
    02/08/2019

    Solar wind pushed geomagnetic indicators higher last week (on February 1-2), and average planetary A index rose from 7 (for the seven days ending January 30) to 11.6 on January 31 through February 6.

    When geomagnetic conditions are active, we usually see higher indices at high latitudes. Alaska's college A index (measured at a magnetometer near Fairbanks) was 40 on February 1, indicating disturbed conditions for the higher latitudes, with a great deal of absorption rather than reflection of HF radio waves.

    There were no sunspots recorded over this period, so average daily sunspot numbers plunged from 19.6 to 0. Average daily solar flux declined from 74.5 to 71.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on February 8-15, 72 on February 16-25, 71 on February 26 through March 11, and 72 on March 12-24.

    These are actually pretty good numbers for the bottom of the solar cycle. Notice there are no predicted flux values below 70.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on February 8-10, 5 on February 11-18, then 12, 20, 12 and 8 on February 19-22, 5 on February 23-26, then 12 on February 27, 15 on February 28 and March 1, then 10, 8, 12 and 8 on March 2-5, 5 on March 6-17, then 12, 20, 12 and 8 on March 18-21, and 5 on March 22-24.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 8 thru March 5, 2019 from F.K. Janda. OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on February 24-26

    Quiet to unsettled on February 9, 11, 14, 18, 27, March 4

    Quiet to active on February 12-13, 15-17, 23, March 5

    Unsettled to active on February 8, 10, 20, 22, March 1-3

    Active to disturbed on February 19, 21, 28

    Solar wind will intensify on February (19,) 20-21, (22, 28), March 1-4, 6

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    If you are using any propagation prediction program such as W6ELprop, you will want to use the predicted smoothed sunspot number (which as of February 4) is 8 for February and March 2019, 7 for April and May, and 6 for June through August. These predicted smoothed sunspot numbers are updated on the first Monday of each month as part of the weekly reports at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/[1]. You can find the predicted smoothed sunspot and solar flux numbers toward the end of each report, on pages 10 and 11 of the current issue.

    Note the problematic predicted numbers which first appeared a month ago have still not been corrected. This is probably affected by the recent federal government shutdown.

     

    This February 1 report is from Ken Brown, N4SO, of Grand Bay, Alabama who was using FT8: "40 meters has been very good with this sampling of DX call signs: A45XR Oman, 9K2HQ Kuwait, A65BR United Arab Emirates, YT1TX Serbia, FK8CB New Caledonia, YD7JLI Indonesia, TF5B Iceland, R9YM Asiatic Russia, UA9UR Russia, TA1OSN Turkey, and E74BYZ Bosnia and Herzegovina. A full list would be very long!"

     

    Report from Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, in Easton, Pennsylvania: "While monitoring the 11-meter Citizen Band on Tuesday, January 15, 2019 from 10:55 pm EST (0355 UTC January 16) I started to hear long distance mobile stations travelling along west bound on Interstate 10 highway from Tallahassee to Pensacola, Florida via sporadic-e.

    "It was kind of odd for the Es to be extended up until this hour. Most of the time it will drop out around 9:30 pm local time. Solar Flux Index was reported at 70. The geomagnetic field was quiet.

    "On Thursday, January 17 (0350 UTC January 18) was hearing stations from Tallahassee to Sarasota, Florida. Solar Flux Index was reported at 69. The geomagnetic field was quiet.

    The next night there was no 11-meter Es heard from any direction as a Northeast winter polar vortex storm was moving eastward from the Midwest that was being strengthened by the Arctic air blast from Canada.

    "On Saturday January 26 in the late evening I noted the Australian Jindalee Operational Radar Network (JORN), Over-the-Horizon Backscatter Radar (Longreach) transmitter emitting 560 kW ERP in Queensland, Australia. They may have been testing their upgraded electronics, signal processing to boost radar coverage and detection capabilities using slower scan rates to detect smaller aircraft, ships, missile launches, low-earth satellites passing over the Coral Sea towards the North Pacific Ocean using digital FM-CW modulation.

    "Operations were between 11 am to 12 pm Australian Eastern Standard Time. The signal strength ranged from faint to fair; the distance was 9,872 miles. The mid-point propagation distance was 4,936 miles, which put the ionospheric refracted footprint touching 300 plus miles northwest from Honolulu, Hawaii along the Gray-Line path while the solar flux rose to 77."

     

    The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: "This year is already off to an amazing start. We have an ongoing solar storm that is bringing long-awaited aurora to many places in the world. I have seen aurora field reports as far south as Germany in Europe and Montana in the United States. In the south, aurora has graced the skies over Tasmania and New Zealand. Although these solar minimum storms pale by comparison to those just a few years ago, one thing is certain. This Space Weather community is growing. This storm has been reasonably weak, yet I have seen a flood of aurora photos, along with numerous amateur radio reports, and even several GPS questions from many new names and faces. I must say, this is a welcome surprise-- and I have YOU to thank for it. The word is getting out!

    "As for the forecast this week, we still have a sleepy Sun for the most part. The current solar storm will slowly wane over the next few days, which could bring us some pulsating aurora and sub-auroral arcs (aka STEVE) before it's gone. But soon thereafter the weather will turn quiet again. I will take this quiet time to ponder a next-generation forecast and lean optimistically into the promise tomorrow brings."

    Here is Dr. Skov's latest video: https://youtu.be/bDPdyxfNWdA[2]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for January 31 through February 6, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 72.1, 72.1, 70.9, 71.1, 70.7, 70.6, and 70, with a mean of 71.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 17, 17, 11, 7, 5, and 10, with a mean of 11.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 10, 11, 8, 5, 3, and 7, with a mean of 8.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/
    [2] https://youtu.be/bDPdyxfNWdA
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 15 22:06:43 2019
    02/15/2019

    Another week passed with no sunspots, and as of February 14 it has been over two weeks since any sunspots were observed, the last on January 30. February 7 through 13 saw average daily solar flux decline from 71.1 to 70.4, compared to the previous seven days. Geomagnetic indices were lower, with average daily planetary A index declining from 11.6 to 8.1, and average mid-latitude A index going from 8 to 6.1. Lower geomagnetic activity is generally good for HF propagation.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on February 15-21, 72 on February 22-25, 71 on February 26 through March 9, 70 and 71 on March 10-11, 72 on March 12-24, and 71 on March 25-31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on February 14-15, 5 on February 16-18, then 12, 20, 12 and 8 on February 19-22, 5 on February 23-26, then 12, 15, 15 and 10 on February 27 through March 2, 5 on March 3-4, then 8, 5, 8, 10, 8 and 5 on March 5-10, 8 on March 11-12, 5 on March 13-17, then 12, 20, 12 and 8 on March 18-21, 5 on March 22-25, 12 on March 26, 15 on March 27-28, 10 and 5 on March 29-30.

    The prediction of solar flux always at 70 or above over the next 45 days is a positive sign for HF propagation, and the spring equinox returns on March 20, indicating gradually improving HF propagation.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 15 until March 13, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on February 16-17, 24-26
    Quiet to unsettled on February 18, 27, March 3-4, 6-7, 10-11
    Quiet to active on February 15, 23, March 5, 8-9, 13
    Unsettled to active on February 19, 22, March 1-2, 12
    Active to disturbed on February 20 (- 21), 28

    Solar wind will intensify on February (19,) 20-21, (22, 28) March (1-3, 6-9, 13). Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Jon Jones, N0JK, writes to us from Lawrence, Kansas, where he operates on 6 meters with a very modest antenna and low power: "A set of rare off season 6 meter Sporadic-E openings appeared on the evening of February 7, and again the morning of February 8.

    "February 7 sporadic-E appeared suddenly on 6 meters starting around 2300z from W2, W3 to W4, and W4 to WO.

    "The next morning February 8, there was strong sporadic-E on 50 MHz across the eastern United States and Canada. NOLL (EM09) worked short Es (high MUF) to W4HLR (EM56) at 1450z. The opening finished around 1845z with K9MU (EN44) working VE1JF (FN74).

    "The only months with less Sporadic-E than February in North America are:  March, September and October."

    The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/H2jDNtUvZkI[1]

    Reader Ken Miller, K6CTW, has an interesting and informative article in the current February 2019 issue of Electric Radio magazine titled "DXing During Periods of Low Sunspot Activity." Ken and the publisher of Electric Radio have generously offered to share this article with our readers. For a PDF copy of the article, email a request to k7ra@arrl.net[2] and title the message "K6CTW article." If you would like to make a comment, email the author at k6ctw@earthlink.net[3].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for February 7 through 13, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.2, 71.8, 70.3, 70, 69.9, 70.2, and 70.4, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 9, 10, 6, 9, 6, and 13, with a mean of 8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 7, 6, 4, 7, 5, and 11, with a mean of 6.1.

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/H2jDNtUvZkI
    [2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [3] mailto:k6ctw@earthlink.net?subject=Comment20Your%20Article
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 22 20:25:38 2019
    02/22/2019

    No sunspots are visible since January 30. The lack of sunspot activity has persisted for over 3 weeks, as of February 21. This past week (February 14-20) the average daily solar flux was only marginally higher, rising just barely from 70.4 to 70.6. Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with average daily planetary A index declining from 8.1 to 4.9, and average daily mid-latitude A index (measured at a single magnetometer in Virginia) dropping from 6.1 to 3.9.

    One advantage at the bottom of the solar cycle is there is less geomagnetic activity, which is a benefit for propagation on 160, 80 and 60 meters. The recent issue of ARRL Contest Update[1] mentioned this, when they talked about the CW weekend last week of the ARRL International DX Contest: "There are many reports that 160 and 80 meters experienced exceptional propagation. The phone version of this contest is coming up on March 2." Also in the same Contest Update is a link to K0NR and his piece about how VHF has propagation opportunities beyond line-of-sight: http://www.k0nr.com/wordpress/2019/02/the-myth-of-vhf-line-of-sight/[2]

     

    In the 45-day outlook for solar flux, the current forecast shows predicted values below 70, for the first time in a few weeks, from March 1-10 and again on March 26 through April 6. We are approaching the end of the winter season, and the vernal equinox (first day of spring) happens on Wednesday, March 20. This suggests better HF conditions. Likewise, in the Southern Hemisphere is the autumnal equinox, a good period for HF propagation.

    The 45-day solar flux prediction on February 21 was 71 on February 22 through March 1, 68 on March 2-10, 70 on March 11-25, and 68 on March 26 through April 7.

     

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on February 22-23, 5 on February 24-26, then 16, 20, 18, 12 and 8 on February 27 through March 3, then 5, 8, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on March 4-9, 5 on March 10-11, then 12 and 10 on March 12-13, 5 on March 14-17, then 12, 16, 12 and 8 on March 18-21, 5 on March 22-25, then 15, 18, 18, 12, 8 and 5 on March 26-31, then 8, 5, 8, 10, and 8 on April 1-5, and 5 on April 6-7.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 22 until March 20, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    Geomagnetic field will be

    Quiet on February 24-26, March 10, 15-16

    Quiet to unsettled on February 23, March 4-7, 9, 11, 18

    Quiet to active on February 22, March 3, 8, 12-14, 17, 19-20

    Unsettled to active on February 27, March 2

    Active to disturbed on February 28, March 1

    Solar wind will intensify on February 22, (28,) March (1-3, 6-9,) 13-15, 20

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Again, there are changes in the configuration of active areas, so the predictability of the prognoses decreases and their computation is difficult.

     

    Here is a Newsweek article on the solar corona and the next sunspot cycle: https://bit.ly/2BLeT2W[3]

    Regarding the recent unusual (and low) predictions for sunspot numbers and solar flux seen on the final few pages of NOAA's weekly preliminary Report and Forecast, go to https://bit.ly/2TagxVI[4] to see an update. We will probably need to wait for the next Space Weather Workshop in April. The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel meets on Friday, April 5, 2019.

     

    Wayne Greaves, W0ZW, of Farmington, New Mexico wrote in a recent email, "The level of activity during the ARRL International DX Contest (CW) last weekend certainly proved to me that you can work DX at the bottom of the solar cycle.  I even made a 10-meter contact with a station in Chile."

     

    Here is the latest video forecast from Dr. Skov: https://youtu.be/EHeO-5URiQU[5]

     

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for February 14 through 20, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 71.4, 70.9, 70.7, 70.1, 69.9, 70.2, and 71, with a mean of 70.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 4, 3, 4, 7, 3, and 3, with a mean of 4.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 4, 3, 3, 5, 2, and 2, with a mean of 3.9.

     

     


    [1] http://www.arrl.org/the-arrl-contest-update
    [2] http://www.k0nr.com/wordpress/2019/02/the-myth-of-vhf-line-of-sight/
    [3] https://bit.ly/2BLeT2W
    [4] https://bit.ly/2TagxVI
    [5] https://youtu.be/EHeO-5URiQU
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 1 20:45:01 2019
    03/01/2019

    At 2256 UTC on February 28 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning. "The Earth is currently under the influence of strongly elevated solar wind speed associated with a coronal hole. A period of significant southward Bz component could produce an isolated Minor Storm period." The Bz component refers to the interplanetary magnetic field. See: https://bit.ly/1S6H68D[1]

    No sunspots emerged during the entire month of February. Currently on February 28 the Earth is bathed in solar wind from a wide hole in the Sun's atmosphere.

    The average daily solar flux and geomagnetic indices were practically unchanged over last week (February 21-27) compared to the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux was 70.7 (it was 70.6 in the prior week), average daily planetary A index was unchanged at 4.9, and average daily mid-latitude A index was 4, virtually unchanged from 3.9 the previous week.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on March 1-8, and 71 on March 9 through April 14. Predicted planetary A index is 20, 14, 10, 8, 8, 5 and 5 on March 1-7, 10, 8 5 and 5 on March 8-11, 12 and 10 on March 12-13, 5 on March 14-19, 10 on March 20, 5 on March 21-25, then 18, 24, 16, 12 and 8 on March 26-30, then 5, 8, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on March 31 through April 5, 5 on April 6-7, then 12 and 10 on April 8-9, and 5 on April 10-14.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 1-27, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on March 15, 23-25
    Quiet to unsettled on March 4-7, 9-10, 16, 18, 22
    Quiet to active on March 3, 8, 11-14, 17, 19-20
    Unsettled to active on March 1-2, 7, 21, 26
    Active to disturbed on March 27

    Solar wind will intensify on March (1-3, 6-9,) 13-14, (15,) 21-22, 25-26

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Here is the latest Space Weather forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/1EKJ3d3c3bA[2]

    I received this from Jon Jones, N0JK: "I'm in Hawaii (Kapolei, O'ahu) this week visiting relatives. No 6-meter propagation this week, although the KH6HI/b 50.064 MHz beacon is 599. I had lunch on February 20 with Bert, KH6HI, and Tom, NH6Y, who are among the most active 50 MHz operators in the 50th state. They are looking forward to the summer sporadic-E season. Tom notes that North America seems to have a better and more frequent path to Japan than from Hawaii on 50 MHz Es."

    Here is a February 23 email from Ken Brown, N4SO, of Grand Bay, Alabama: "In addition to the low bands, 10.136 MHz remains very good on the FT8 mode. Recently, I copied JA4FKX working 0-land stations at 16:10 UTC. (The path to Japan and Indonesia opens way before daylight.) During the night, conditions are similar to 7 MHz."

    And a note from KD6JUI, who operates almost exclusively from his freshwater kayak in Northern California: "I had an exceptional day last Tuesday, the 19th. While running 10 W SSB from the kayak, I got into Brazil on SSB. Also heard Spain coming in loud and clear. Noise was higher than usual.

    "I am still able to make enough contacts on 17, 20 and 30 meters from the kayak to keep me happy. Being on the water helps, I'm sure."

    This weekend is the ARRL International SSB DX Contest. See http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[3] for details.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for February 21 through 27, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 71.2, 70.7, 70.5, 70.4, 70.6, and 70.7, with a mean of 70.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, and 10, with a mean of 4.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, and 9, with a mean of 3.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/1S6H68D
    [2] https://youtu.be/1EKJ3d3c3bA
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 8 21:02:54 2019
    03/08/2019

    After no sunspots over the entire month of February, sunspot group 2734 appeared on March 5. So far, the new sunspot numbers are 14, 17, and 14 on March 5-7. I believe this was the longest consecutive period (33 days) with no sunspots on this declining side of Cycle 24. The polarity of the new sunspot group identifies it as being from Cycle 24, not the upcoming Cycle 25.

    Frank Donovan, W3LPL sent a link from the Royal Observatory in Belgium showing brief sunspot appearances on February 13 and 21: http://www.sidc.be/products/ri/[1]

    But numbers from NOAA do not show these.

    ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt[2]

    ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/quar_DSD.txt[3]

    It is interesting to note that we are currently seeing the lowest sunspot activity since August 2008 during the last solar minimum, between Cycles 23 and 24.

    Frank also sent this link, concerning spotless days: http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless[4]

    And a newsletter: http://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2019/STCEnews20190307.pdf[5]

    Average daily sunspot numbers for the week increased from 0 to 4.4, compared to the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux was unchanged at 70.6.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 4.9 to 12.6, and average mid-latitude A index increased from 4 to 9.7. These geomagnetic indicators were higher due to effects of a solar wind stream on February 28 and March 1.

    Predicted solar flux is 71 on March 8-12, and 70 on March 13 through April 21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10 and 8 on March 8-10, 5 on March 11-13, 10 on March 14-15, 5 on March 16-25, then 12, 30, 28, 14, 8 and 10 on March 26-31, then 8, 5, 10, 15, 12, 12 and 8 on April 1-7, then 5 on April 8-15, 10 on April 16, and 5 on April 17-21.

    In reference to the predicted planetary A index, here is the geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 8 until April 6, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on March 14-15, 23-24
    Quiet to unsettled on March 9, 17-18, 22, 25
    Quiet to active on March 8, 10-13, 19-21, 31, April 1-2
    Unsettled to active on March 16, 26, 29-30
    Active to disturbed on March 27-28

    Solar wind will intensify on March (8-9,) 13-14, (15,) 21-22, 25-28, April 1, (2, 5)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW sent this: "We have been enjoying an unusual increase in activity over the past week. First, the Sun launched a solar storm that grazed Earth. Nice to see our solar minimum Sun can still launch storms every now and again! This solar storm enhanced a relatively weak period of fast solar wind and caused aurora to drop down to mid-latitudes, lasting for nearly two days. We haven't seen a storm that engaging since 2018!

    "As if that wasn't enough fun, two new hot spots have emerged in Earth view alongside a third bright region that was already visible. Three active regions on the Earth-facing Sun? We haven't seen that since 2017!

    "Additionally, the biggest and brightest of these hotspots has now grown into a "rogue" sunspot. This means it clearly shows an influence from the coming Solar Cycle 25! Although we cannot officially designate this region, numbered 2734, as a sunspot from the new cycle, its magnetic signature is very peculiar. Its magnetic poles sit one on top of the other instead of side by side. This is unusual and point to the region being a bit confused as to which cycle it belongs. I will be sure to report on it in more detail during my Solar Storm forecast that I'll finish late this week.

    "As for the current forecast, expect solar flux to remain in the low to mid 70's due to the new active regions. This will give radio propagation a nice boost on Earth's day side. Also, as the solar storm continues to wane, GPS reception should continue to improve on Earth's night side and at high latitudes. However, satellite operators and users should be aware of an increase in anomalies over the next few days due to the enhanced near-Earth radiation environment right now. This is especially true for those satellites in geosynchronous orbits (GEO) like Direct TV and SIRIUS-XM Radio. So if your satellite radio glitches while you're listening to your favorite song, you'll know why."

    See her latest video here:  https://youtu.be/eq_r4st7Sy8[6]

    In last week's bulletin ARLP009 https://bit.ly/2EM3b8K[7] I expressed my confusion over the numbers in FT8 reports. Thanks to N6KW, N5UWY and others for clearing this up. Here is N6KW's missive: "The FT8 QSO, left to right, is Zulu time, signal/noise ratio in dB, time deviation in seconds, audio frequency in the passband. So, JA4FKX's signal was 13 dB below the noise at the time of copy."

    N5UWY wrote: "That's a cut/paste from WSJT-X (K1JT's software package for all the modes he and his colleagues have developed). Fields are 'UTC, signal strength in dB relative to the noise level in a 2500-Hz bandwidth, delta in seconds between received station's clock and UTC, the number of Hertz above the dial frequency, then the message from the other station Japan (or JA) is tacked on after the message by the software to indicate the DXCC entity by name or prefix.

    "'343' here means that JA4FKX was transmitting on 10136.343 kHz. Further, his clock was 0.3 s off UTC (according to the receiving station's clock which could be off itself!) and the JAs signal was 13 dB down from the noise level that the software was seeing at the receiver.

    "I am totally an expert now on FT8. I started using it on January 28 and by February 27 or so, I had WAS on 30 m and FT8! Made about 350 QSOs. Got some DX, too. 30 meters is an interesting band and I'm glad I stuck it out there as I'd never really operated on the band before. I'm kidding - I am in no way an expert. I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn.

    "FT8 is kind of addicting, but it's fun. I even worked an all-time new one on 30 meters - Reunion Island my second-best DX ever. I think I'm running about 50 W to a trap dipole at about 25 to 30 feet."

    On March 6, Steve Sacco, NN4X, wrote: "Due to dreadful conditions, I seriously did not want to suffer through the ARRL DX contest last week, but I did want to play on the radio. I've only been on 12 meters since December 2018, so I have been making a point to check it frequently.

    "Just to show that there is propagation, here's a selection of what I've worked from Florida recently.
    VK3BDX Feb 28
    LU, PY, YV, T31EU, YN, FY, EA8/DL9XJ, CE, CX, EA7DT, HK, HD8M (HC8) Mar 2, 3 CE0YHO Mar 3, T31EU Mar 2, 3, EA8AXT, EA8AKN, EA9ACD Mar 5

    "So, the moral of the story is 'Never Give Up Hope'".

    On March 7 Steve wrote again: "FT8 is a fantastic tool for monitoring prop. It allowed me to document a fascinating but short 30-minute opening to Africa from Florida, resulting in RF being expended from my side, but no QSOs. My antenna: JK Antennas JK-WARC 121730 (3 elements on 17 meters) at 113 feet.
    EA9AK 1502Z
    5X2S  1516Z
    Z81D  1530Z"

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[8].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[13].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14].

    Sunspot numbers for February 28 through March 6, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 14, and 17, with a mean of 4.4. 10.7 cm flux was 70.1, 69.9, 69.4, 69.5, 70.9, 72, and 72.5, with a mean of 70.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 24, 12, 6, 7, 5, and 8, with a mean of 12.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 17, 18, 9, 6, 7, 4, and 7, with a mean of 9.7.

     


    [1] http://www.sidc.be/products/ri/
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [3] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/quar_DSD.txt
    [4] http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless
    [5] http://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2019/STCEnews20190307.pdf
    [6] https://youtu.be/eq_r4st7Sy8
    [7] https://bit.ly/2EM3b8K
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Mar 18 18:29:10 2019
    03/15/2019

    Sunspots reemerged for 8 days on March 5-12. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 4.4 in last week's bulletin to 9.9 this week (March 7-13). Average daily solar flux barely changed, from 70.6 to 70.9. Average planetary A index declined from 12.6 to 5.1, and average middle latitude A index from 9.7 to 3.9.

    The vernal equinox will occur next Wednesday, March 20 when the southern and northern hemispheres will be bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on March 15-17, 68 on March 18-22, 69 on March 23-28, 70 on March 29, 71 on March 30 through April 8, 70 on April 9, 69 on April 10-24, 70 on April 25 and 71 on April 26-28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8 and 8 on March 15-17, 5 on March 18-19, 10 on March 20, 5 on March 21-25, then 12, 30, 28, 14 and 8 on March 26-30, 5 on March 31 through April 1, 8 on April 2-3, 5 on April 4-9, then 12, 10 and 8 on April 10-12, 5 on April 13-15, 10 on April 16, 5 on April 17-21, then 10, 26, 24, 12 and 8 on April 22-26 and 5 on April 27-28.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 15 to April 13, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on March 22-24, 31, April 4-9. 13
    Quiet to unsettled on March 16-18, 25, April 1-3, 11-12
    Quiet to active on March 19-21, April 10
    Unsettled to active on March 15, 26, 29-30
    Active to disturbed on March 27-28

    Solar wind will intensify on March (15,) 21-22, 25-28, April 1, (2, 5)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Australia's Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning at 0003 UTC on March 15. "Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high speed wind stream on March 15-16, 2019.

    15 Mar:  Unsettled to Active, possible Minor Storm periods for High latitudes 16 Mar:  Quiet to Unsettled"

    Jim DeYoung, N8OQ sent this interesting question on March 13: "I have been wondering about the fact the north magnetic pole has been shifting towards Russia significantly and therefore are there any expected resultant significant shifts in the auroral oval that would affect propagation to/from North America or to Asia?

    "The reason I ask is I made probably my best contact of all time a few weeks ago during the CQ 160-Meter Phone Contest. I always run low power for that contest as a good test of my operating skills (ears), noise levels, rigs, and most importantly my antenna. I have used for many years a 93-meter horizontal loop antenna fed with about 24 meters of window line. The antenna is about 13 meters off the ground at its highest point.  The 'loop' is more like a trapezoid, but actually it is what is called a scalene.

    "For my station I had very good propagation conditions for the contest. Heard ZF9, ZF2, PJ4 (twice), TO4, C6, HQ9, OK7 and others I didn't write down. Didn't work any of them as one would expect with just 5 W output on SSB.

    "However, on February 24 at 0417 UTC, I worked UA7K with on 1.838! It was his twilight sunrise on the north-east side of the Black Sea. Apparently, this was one of those fabled 160-meterm enhancements that occur at sunrise/sunset.

    "I called once not expecting a thing. There was a pause on his end, and then I heard 'N8OQ.'  I gave him a 'Roger!' and he replied with his CQ Zone (16). I responder with my report and state. He acknowledged and the contact when into the log. I received the confirmation via Logbook of The World a few days later!

    "The contact was so easy, I soon began to think I must have been hearing things. Perhaps I didn't copy his call sign correctly.

    "I didn't hear any of the big-gun station contacting him, but I heard at least one other run-of-the-mill US station work him for the few minutes I paused to monitor. When I checked again about 15 minutes later, he was gone, but I then heard a Czech station and a Lithuanian but didn't get them. Both were also near their twilight sunrise line. My antenna and low noise floor allows me to hear these stations that few were calling. The UA7K clearly also had a very low noise floor, but this was apparently one of those super contest stations, the Russian Contest Club. My 5W was not enough to work any of the other good DX that was available. I was tempted several times to turn on the amp but resisted!

    "Was this contact assisted by the auroral oval shifting away from the transatlantic path?"

    Here is an interesting article about solar activity from Canada's CBC: https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/solar-activity-1.5049337[1]

    Thanks, David Moore, for sending this link concerning massive solar storms: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190311152744.htm[2]

    Here is the latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/TSDfL9cwzEU[3]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for March 7 through 13, 2019 were 14, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, and 0, with a mean of 9.9. 10.7 cm flux was 70.9, 71.8, 70.7, 71.1, 70.4, 70.7, and 70.8, with a mean of 70.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 5, 5, 4, 3, 7, and 4, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 5, and 4, with a mean of 3.9.

     


    [1] https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/solar-activity-1.5049337
    [2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190311152744.htm
    [3] https://youtu.be/TSDfL9cwzEU
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 22 17:39:48 2019
    03/22/2019

    Following a month of no sunspots in February, solar activity returned on March 5-12, then disappeared over five days, returning last week on March 18-20.

    But our reporting week (Always Thursday through the following Wednesday) ended with a bang when the daily sunspot number rose to 28 on March 20, the first day of spring. Sunspot numbers have not been as high since last August, when the sunspot numbers were 29, 31 and 26 on August 24-26.

    Thursday, March 21 saw the sunspot number rise to 49, and the sunspots cover 220 millionths of the solar hemisphere. The last time the sunspot number was as high was on June 20, 2018 when it was 54. Sunspot area hasn't been higher than 220 millionths hemisphere since February 12, 2018, when it was 230 millionths.

    There are now two visible sunspot groups, AR2735 and AR2736.

    A coronal mass ejection exploded out of new sunspot AR2736 on March 20, causing a temporary HF blackout in Southern Europe and in Africa. Parts of this CME should arrive at Earth late on March 22 or 23.

    Also, on March 20 the solar flux was 76.8, a number higher than any solar flux value since last June, when it was 77.1 on June 23. On March 21 the solar flux was 80.1.

    Does this signal a turnaround for Cycle 24? Too early to tell, but those numbers are certainly encouraging.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined slightly from 9.9 in the previous seven days to 8 this week, March 14-20. Average daily solar flux went from 70.9 to 70.7.

    Average planetary A index rose from 5.1 to 8.1, and average middle latitude A index went from 3.9 to 6.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 80 on March 22-23, then 77, 76, and 74 on March 24-26, 70 on March 27-29, 71 on March 30 through April 9, 70 on April 10, 69 on April 11-24, 70 on April 25, and 71 on April 26 through May 5.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on March 22, then 24 and 25 on March 23-24, 8 on March 25-26, 15 and 12 on March 27-28, 8 on March 29-30, 5 on March 31 and April 1, 8 on April 2-3, 5 on April 4-11, 15 on April 12, 5 on April 13-15, 10 on April 16, 5 on April 17-21, then 10, 26, 24, 12 and 8 on April 22-26, 5 on April 27-28, 8 on April 29-30, and 5 on May 1-5.

    At 0050 UTC on March 21, The Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning. "On 23 March a CME associated with a C4.8 flare occurred on 20 March is expected to arrive at Earth. This may result in an increase in the global geomagnetic activity up to Minor Storm levels. Isolated Major Storm levels are also possible."

    Here is the latest video from Dr. Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/AmUNgxcxvGg[1]

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 22-April 20, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on March 31, April 11, 16, 18-19
    Quiet to unsettled on March 22, 25, April 1-4, 11-12
    Quiet to active on March 26, 31, April 6-10, 15
    Unsettled to active on March 24, 27, 29-30, April 5, 13-14, 17
    Active to disturbed on March 23, 28

    Solar wind will intensify on March (22,) 23-24. (25-30,) April (2, 12-13, 15-16)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Steve Sacco, NN4X of Saint Cloud, Florida mentioned a big meteor blast last December: https://outline.com/XNF3CM[2]. It released 173 kilotons on December 18: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/[3]. He checked his log and found possible enhancement over that path on 30 meters using FT8 mode to Japan, UA0, China and United Arab Emirates. Later he worked BG2AUE on 80 meters at 1247 UTC.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for March 14 through 20, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 13, 15, and 28, with a mean of 8. 10.7 cm flux was 70.1, 69.6, 69.5, 69.3, 70, 69.7, and 76.8, with a mean of 70.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 12, 16, 3, 7, and 5, with a mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 5, 7, 14, 2, 5, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/AmUNgxcxvGg
    [2] https://outline.com/XNF3CM
    [3] https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 29 17:58:41 2019
    03/29/2019

    During our reporting week (March 21-27) solar activity increased while geomagnetic indicators were lower, compared to the previous seven days. This is a nice combination for the first week of spring.

    Although sunspots and solar flux decreased toward the end of the period, average daily sunspot numbers doubled from 8 to 16, and average daily solar flux increased from 70.7 to 75.2.

    Average daily planetary A index decreased from 8.1 to 3.7, and average daily middle latitude A index decreased from 6.3 to 3.9.

    These numbers are all good, because higher sunspot numbers and solar flux suggest better enhancement of the ionosphere while the lower geomagnetic numbers correspond to generally lower absorption or disturbed conditions.

    The planetary A index is a composite from magnetometers around the globe, but the middle latitude A index is from a single magnetometer in Virginia.

    Predicted solar flux from the March 28 forecast is 68 on March 29 through April 4, 70 on April 5-6, then 71 and 74 on April 7-8, 75 on April 9-18, then 74, 73, 73 and 71 on April 19-22, 70 on April 23 through May 3, 71 and 74 on May 4-5, and 75 on May 6-12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 29, 8 on March 30 through April 2, 6 and 8 on April 3-4, 5 on April 5-11, then 15 and 10 on April 12-13, 5 on April 14-21, then 8, 12, 12, 8 and 8 on April 22-26, 5 on April 27-28, 8 on April 29-30, 5 on May 1-8, then 12, 8, 5 and 5 on May 9-12.

    The above predictions for solar flux and A index are updated daily at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[1] .

     

    There have been no sunspots on March 26-28. Here is an image of sunspot group AR2736 from March 23, a few days before it disappeared: https://bit.ly/2utHqGj[2]

     

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 29 until April 27, 2019

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on March 31, April 11, 16, 18-21, 27

    Quiet to unsettled on March April 1-4, 11-12, 22, 25-26

    Quiet to active on March 30, April 6-10, 15, 23-24

    Unsettled to active on March 29, April 5, 13-14, 17

    Solar wind will intensify on March 29 (- 30), April (2-6,) 12-13, 15-16. Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    NN4X sent this report: "On March 26 I tried 17 meters and worked into Australia and New Zealand on a seemingly dead band. I worked E6 on 3/27 at 21:41Z. Additional countries worked included Spain, France, St Helena, and Yugoslavia. I had to leave after 5:00 PM local so was not able to look west for any late afternoon/early evening openings, although I don't see anything posted to DX Cluster.

    "On March 28 I decided to call CQ into a 'dead' 12-meter band, and soon saw PSKReporter.info showing I was heard in Spain. I continued calling and soon made contacts with Spain, Brazil, Puerto Rico, and Argentina. I was also heard in France.

    "Once again, it pays to make some noise; you never know who's listening, or where."

     

    The CQ World Wide WPX SSB Contest is this weekend. See https://www.cqwpx.com/[3]

     

    The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: "What happened nationwide this past week [the media hyping of a 'solar storm'] was a tragedy-- it did not need to happen. It's always personally painful to me when some members of the media jump on these storms and hype them beyond recognition. Seduced by the allure of aurora views and a world of science-fiction adventure, people from all over then embark on a solar storm crusade. They pack their bags, and their cars, and head hundreds of miles towards the poles singing victory songs with stars in their eyes. Their trip begins with enthusiasm, awe, and wonder, but it ends tragically. It leaves many feeling confused and left out in the dark and cold (literally) as they look skyward for an aurora show that never comes.

    "Events like these are stark reminders of why it's so critical we continue to push forward to create a field of Space Weather broadcasting. When the media runs amok, omitting critical aspects of Space Weather that make forecasting so difficult and aurora so elusive, it traps everyone in its web. You, me, and especially the uninitiated. But there is a bright spark I am beginning to see. Far more than ever before, I saw this community push back on the hype. What is more-- I watched as journalists and meteorologists alike, learned from us.  As in the picture above, I saw proof we are winning the battle. We are slowly pushing back against the media veil that continues to keep Space Weather shrouded in mystery. I know a huge part of our success is due to you, and I am eternally grateful.

    "As for this week's forecast, our Sun calms down a bit as rogue region 2736 rotates to the Sun's backside. We won't see it again for another two weeks. This means emergency, shortwave, and amateur radio propagation tanks again on Earth's day side, even as GPS reception improves. We also get another chance for a solar storm from a small pocket of fast wind that is already brightening the aurora again. So at least that is good news for aurora hopefuls, who missed out on the show this past week. Too bad no media are reporting on the aurora viewing chances now. They're better than during the peak of the hype. So much for a fizzle and a frenzy."

     

    See Dr. Skov's latest video here: https://youtu.be/I4TiyYm1u4s[4]

     

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[5].

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for March 21 through 27, 2019 were 49, 27, 22, 14, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 16. 10.7 cm flux was 80.1, 82.4, 79.4, 75.4, 71.2, 69, and 68.9, with a mean of 75.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 1, 1, 3, 5, 6, and 8, with a mean of 3.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, and 8, with a mean of 3.9.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [2] https://bit.ly/2utHqGj
    [3] https://www.cqwpx.com/
    [4] https://youtu.be/I4TiyYm1u4s
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 5 18:17:50 2019
    04/05/2019

    Sunspots have been coming and going, and now this week they returned. The spots that returned didn't last long, though.

    No sunspots were seen from January 31 through March 4, then from March 13-17, and again March 25-30. They returned on Sunday, March 31 but only lasted four days, through Wednesday, April 3. Sunspot numbers over that period were 14, 17, 18 and 17.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 16 in last week's report to 9.4 this week. Average daily solar flux declined from 75.2 to 69.5. Average daily planetary A index rose from 3.7 to 8.4, while average middle latitude A index went from 3.9 to 7.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on April 5-11, 69 on April 12-13, 70 on April 14-22, then 69, 68, 69 and 69 on April 23-26, 70 on April 27 through May 7, 69 on May 8-10, and 70 on May 11-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10, 12 and 8 on April 5-8, 5 on April 9-11, then 15 and 8 on April 12-13, 5 on April 14-23, then 10, 8, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on April 24-29, 10 on April 30 through May 1, 8 on May 2-3, 10 on May 4, 5 on May 5-8, then 15 and 8 on May 9-10, and 5 on May 11-19.

     

    In last week's bulletin ARLP013 we presented a message from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW in which she complained about overhyped space weather stories in the mainstream press. I think we may have seen another example this week from a British tabloid: https://bit.ly/2I95JkS[1]

    This was published on Wednesday when the planetary A index was slightly unsettled at 12, on Thursday it was 8, and predicted values of 12, 10, 12 and 8 follow on April 5-8 and 5 on April 9-10. This is not expected to cause blow outs of "electrical transformers and power stations," as mentioned in the article, nor "leave people vulnerable to cancer".

    The story was picked up by another UK publication: https://bit.ly/2YQ0yMI[2]

    Note they quote Spaceweather.com predicting only "a minor stream of solar wind."

    The Washington Post also addressed this issue: https://wapo.st/2CHJKxS[3]

     

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sends us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 5 until May 1, 2019.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on April 9, 14, 17-19,

    Quiet to unsettled on April 5-8, 16, 20, 26,

    Quiet to active on April (15, 21-23,) 24, 27-29, May 1

    Unsettled to active on April (10 -) 11, 13, 25, 30

    Active to disturbed April (12)

    Solar wind will intensify on April (6,) 12-13, 15-16, (19-22,) 23-24, (25-30, May 1)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    Mike Schaeffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania wrote on Thursday night: "Spring season high frequency band Es is slowly emerging out of its dormant state. On Friday, April 5, 0100 UTC (Thursday, April 4, 9:00 PM EDT local) I was monitoring the 11-meter Citizen Band (27 MHz) and noticed a swooshing, light fading condition on channel 28, which is normally inactive. Suddenly, like a flick of a light switch, Es emerged from the states of Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana. The average distance from Easton, Pennsylvania was about 1,000 miles. Activity lasted for a brief time of about ten minutes. This occurred one hour, 32 minutes after local sunset (7:28 PM). According to reports, the 10.7cm flux was 70."

     

    Thanks to John Pieszcynski, W2FV of Trout Lake, Washington for his tip on problems with satellite debris during solar minimum, from Dr. Tony Phillips of Spaceweather.com: https://bit.ly/2CZyxsD[4]

     

    At 2345 UTC on Monday, April 1 Steve Sacco, NN4X in Florida sent this query about something I had otherwise heard nothing about: "Is there some kind of solar event going on?  I don't see anything of note at SolarHam.com. Several folks across the U.S. are hearing an extremely broad-band noise on 30 meters. I'm not able to peak it from any heading with my 2-element Yagi."

     

    Here is the latest video from Dr. Skov: https://youtu.be/_dRoznalAg4[5]

     

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[6].

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for March 28 through April 3, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 14, 17, 18, and 17, with a mean of 9.4. 10.7 cm flux was 68.4, 68.8, 69.4, 69.5, 69.3, 70.8, and 70.6, with a mean of 69.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 7, 4, 11, 8, 6, and 12, with a mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 10, 6, 3, 9, 6, 5, and 12, with a mean of 7.3.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2I95JkS
    [2] https://bit.ly/2YQ0yMI
    [3] https://wapo.st/2CHJKxS
    [4] https://bit.ly/2CZyxsD
    [5] https://youtu.be/_dRoznalAg4
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 12 18:36:39 2019
    04/12/2019

    Similar to the last reporting week in ARLP014, the first three days (Thursday through Saturday) had no visible sunspots, but sunspots returned on Sunday through Thursday. Average daily sunspot number declined from 9.4 to 6.9, but average daily solar flux rose from 69.5 to 75.4.

    Geomagnetic indicators were slightly more active, with average daily planetary A index increasing from 8.4 to 10.6, and average middle latitude A index from 7.3 to 9.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 78 on April 12-17, 76 and 74 on April 18-19, 70 on April 20-22, 69 on April 23, 70 on April 24-28, 71 on April 29 through May 1, 72 on May 2-3, 77 on May 4-6, 74 on May 7-16, 70 on May 17-19, then 69, 68, 69 and 69 on May 20-23, 70 on May 24-25 and 71 on May 26.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on April 12-13, 5 on April 14-23, then 10, 8, 5, 10, 8, and 5 on April 24-29, 10 on April 30 through May 2, 7 on May 3, 5 on May 4-20, then 10, 8, 5, 10, 8 and 5 on May 21-26.

    On April 7 sunspot group 2738 appeared. Currently (Thursday, April 11) you can see it as the bright spot on the STEREO image at: https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[1] Of course, the bright spot will move from left to right over time, until it disappears off the right side.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 12 until May 8, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on April 14, 17-19
    Quiet to unsettled on April 16, 20-23, 26, 29, May 2-4
    Quiet to active on April (15,) 28, May 1
    Unsettled to active on April (24-25, 27,) 30, May 5-8
    Active to disturbed April (12-13)

    Solar wind will intensify on April 12-13, 15-16, (19-23,) 24-25, (26-30,) May (1,) 2-3, (5, 8)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Thanks to David Moore for this article: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190404114437.htm[2]

    The Cycle 25 prediction panel met last week in Boulder, and they see an end to declining solar cycles, and they do not predict another grand minimum similar to the terrifying (to hams) Maunder Minimum. The Washington Post had an interesting take on the prediction, indicating the next cycle could be stronger: https://wapo.st/2IrROGx[3]

    Here is a tweet from Scott McIntosh, Director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's High-Altitude Observatory offering his opinion that Cycle 25 will be stronger than Cycle 24. https://twitter.com/swmcintosh/status/1116427188612497408[4]

    Steve Ford, WB8IMY, sent this article on accurate predictions of space weather. It has a nice video on the perils of space weather: https://phys.org/news/2019-04-accurately-space-weather.html[5]

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, of Easton, Pennsylvania sent this report: "Tuesday evening, April 9, 2135 UTC (5:35 PM EDT local) I was monitoring the 11-meter Citizen Band (27 MHz) and telltale signs of Sporadic-E, swooshing, fading in and out of signals on channel 19, which is active with interstate truckers was causing interference to local operators. Sporadic-e was emerging from the state of Florida, around Miami.

    "During the 2200 UTC (6:00 PM EDT local) central cities of Melbourne, Orlando, Ocala, and Gainesville were heard. At 2310 UTC (7:10 PM EDT local) the Es plasma cloud was shifting westerly over Tampa. Ten minutes later, Es had vanished. Most likely the cloud (not the internet one) had moved over the Gulf of Mexico where there are no truckers.

    "The most distant station, Miami was 1,070 air miles from Easton, Pennsylvania. The MUF made it up into the 6-meter band, but not high enough for the low-VHF TV or the FM broadcast bands. The reported geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with a 10.7cm flux at 79. The MUF had intensified with durations becoming longer compared to last week."

    Jeff, N8II, in West Virginia sent this report: "Here we go again; the SFI has been near 80 for 3-4 days, unexpectedly. Unfortunately, 15 meters has not come to life except for stations to the south. I keep seeing spots for C5DL in the Gambia on 15 meters and hear little or no signal. Seventeen meters does come to life a bit when the flux hits the upper 70s.

    "Conditions were not good to Missouri during their QSO Party from here. Twenty meters was marginal, and then closed at around 1900Z Saturday and signals seemed weaker than expected on 40 during the day. On top of that, storms in the Gulf Coast area caused noise even on 20 meters and I was unable to work any Mississippi QSO Party stations on 75-meter phone during their round table net due to high noise on their end.

    "The good news is that conditions on 30 meters down to 80 meters have been pretty good many nights. I would say the average signal levels on 80 far exceed the levels on December and January with March probably being the best month, but signals from the big guns in Europe are still S9+.

    "I managed to work C5DL on 160 meters on the April 11 at 0044Z; they were Q5 copy about 90% of the time here with low noise levels. They have also been logged on 80, 40, 30, and 20 meters, but no luck on 17 meters so far.

    "Most days, several European Russians are loud on 20 meters and they have several special prefixes running as well as many AM70 and other AM prefixes from Spain to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the URE.

    "On April 11, signals were booming from Spain at 2100-2200Z on 20 meters; signals have been weak around 1300-1600Z from Spain, but I suspect most AM70 stations were beaming towards Eastern Europe.

    On April 5, Turkey and two booming Bulgarians were worked on 20 meters in the 2000Z hour.

    Mikhail, VE7ACN, has been touring islands in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and generating large European pile ups on 40, 20, and even 17 meters. The skip zones are so long, that he skipped over me on 20 meters for several days until the solar flux improved. I can hear Southeast Asian stations some days on 20 but working through the European pile ups is very difficult.

    "There is still a decent long path opening to Australia on 30 and 20 meters around 2100Z. That path was very good during our winter.

    "Today, April 11, was fun with some booming signals from the south on 12 and 10 meters.  I logged two stations from Columbia, two from Chile, and I worked St. Lucia on 10-meter SSB around at 2050Z. Teddy, VP2ETE, on Anguilla was loud on 12-meter SSB at 2115Z. Several of these stations were S9 or better here and they were only using dipoles."

    Dr. Skov, WX6SWW, issued this video report on April 10: https://youtu.be/m5E7aFZeE70[6]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[7].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for April 4 through 10, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 11, 12, 12, and 13, with a mean of 6.9. 10.7 cm flux was 70.3, 71.7, 73.6, 76.5, 78.6, 79, and 78.1, with a mean of 75.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 14, 7, 5, 13, 11, and 14, with a mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 7, 5, 12, 11, and 10, with a mean of 9.

     


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190404114437.htm
    [3] https://wapo.st/2IrROGx
    [4] https://twitter.com/swmcintosh/status/1116427188612497408
    [5] https://phys.org/news/2019-04-accurately-space-weather.html
    [6] https://youtu.be/m5E7aFZeE70
    [7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 19 15:56:32 2019
    04/19/2019

    New sunspot group 2739 appeared on April 17, and the daily sunspot number rose to 24. The new sunspot has a polarity indicating it is still part of old cycle 24, the current sunspot cycle. This reporting week (April 11-17) the average daily sunspot number rose from 6.9 to 14, while average daily solar flux increased from 75.4 to 76.4.

    Sunspots have been visible on every day since April 7, so as of April 18 that is 12 continuous days.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average planetary A index declining from 10.6 to 6.4.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 75 on April 19, 70 on April 20-21, 68 on April 22-25, 69, 70 and 69 on April 26-28, 71 on April 29-30, 70 on May 1, 72 on May 2-3, 77 on May 4, 79 on May 5-6, 78, 79 and 77 on May 7-9, 78 on May 10-17, 71 on May 18-19, 69 and 68 on May 20-21, 69 on May 22-23, 70 and 69 on May 24-25, 71 on May 26-27, 70 on May 28, 72 on May 29-30, then 77 on May 31 and 79 on June 1-2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 19-26, then 10, 8 and 5 on April 27-29, 10 on April 30 through May 2, then 7, 5 and 13 on May 3-5, then 10, 14 and 7 on May 6-8, 8 on May 9-10, 5 on May 11-20, then 10, 8 and 5 on May 21-23, 10, 8 and 5 on May 24-26, 10 on May 27-29, then 7, 5, 13 and 10 on May 30 through June 2.

     

    Jon, N0JK reports that summer sporadic-e season began on April 14 when he copied K2PL (Virginia) and KE3QZ (Maryland) from Jon's home in Kansas on six meters.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 19 until May 15, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on April 19, May (12 - ) 13

    Quiet to unsettled on April 20-22, 25, 27, May 3, 8, 10-11

    Quiet to active on April 27, May 2, 4

    Unsettled to active on April 23, 26, 28-30, May 1, 5-7, 9

    Active to disturbed April 24

    Solar wind will intensify on April 22-24, (25,) May 1-3, 9-13

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    Jeff, N8II, sent this report last Friday, April 12, too late for ARLP015: "There was not much action on 17 or 15 meters today. However, I did catch C5DL on 15 and 17-meter CW around 2000Z and worked them on both bands easily. The signal on 15 meters was peaking S4-5 at a beam heading of 130 degrees (true heading about 70). Then, after 2100Z, I managed to work AM70URE/9 in Ceuta, Africa on 15-meter SSB beaming to the south Atlantic on scatter. He was working South America, so his antenna was in the best position to work the scatter. Signals from south Europe were good at 2030Z on 20 meters; one Italian was S9 +20 dB and 2 others very loud. EA3GWK in Spain was S9+15db."

     

    Here is what I believe is an older video from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, about the solar magnetic field when it reverses: http://www.spaceweatherwoman.com/can-the-suns-magnetic-field-flip/[1]

     

    You'll find interesting images of sunspots here: https://earthsky.org/todays-image/photos-sunspot-ar-2738-apr-2019[2]

     

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[3].

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

     

    Sunspot numbers for April 11 through 17, 2019 were 13, 14, 14, 11, 11, 11, and 24, with a mean of 14. 10.7 cm flux was 78.5, 77.3, 77.9, 75.4, 75.4, 74.2, and 76.1, with a mean of 76.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 9, 8, 4, 8, 6, and 3, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 7, 3, 8, 6, and 3, with a mean of 5.7.

     

     


    [1] http://www.spaceweatherwoman.com/can-the-suns-magnetic-field-flip/
    [2] https://earthsky.org/todays-image/photos-sunspot-ar-2738-apr-2019
    [3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 26 15:15:28 2019
    04/26/2019

    Following a good two-week run, sunspots disappeared after April 20. The average daily sunspot numbers for the recent reporting week were 8.1, down from 14 reported in last week's bulletin, and average daily solar flux was 70.6, down from 76.4. Daily planetary and mid-latitude A index were nearly the same this week, with the average planetary A index at 4.7 and middle latitude A index at 4.6.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 69 on April 26-30, then 70 on May 1-2, 72 on May 3, 76 on May 4-5, 77 on May 6, 78 on May 7-16, 76 and 72 on May 17-18, 69 on May 19-29, then 72, 76, 76 and 77 on May 30 through June 2, and 78 on June 3-9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 5 and 10 on April 26-28, 5 on April 29 through May 1, then 15, 10, 5, 10, 12 and 14 on May 2-7, 8 on May 8-10, 5 on May 11-19, 8 on May 20-22, then 5, 12, 8 and 5 on May 23-26, then 10, 14, 12, 8 and 5 on May 27-31, then 10, 12 and 14 on June 1-3, 8 on June 4-6, and 5 on June 7-9.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 26-May 20, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on April 28, May 11, 13-14, 16, 18-19

    Quiet to unsettled on April 26, May 3-4, 8-9, 12, 15, 17

    Quiet to active on April 30, May 1-2, 10, 20

    Unsettled to active on April 27, 29, May 5-7

    Solar wind will intensify on May 3-5, 9-13, 15, (20).

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    On April 22, Tom Scott, N5GIT, in San Antonio wrote: "Just bagged my first 2-meter SSB contact with Florida! I was only running 100 W to a K5VH 3-ring halo antenna at 28 feet tied to a second story balcony."

     

    Here is Dr. Skov's latest video: https://youtu.be/W9Fp-O3Ddlo[1]

     

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[2].

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for April 18 through 24, 2019 were 23, 23, 11, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 8.1. 10.7 cm flux was 74.6, 72.7, 69.9, 69.3, 69.4, 68.8, and 69.3, with a mean of 70.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 4, 4, 4, 4, 8, and 7, with a mean of 4.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 4, 4, 4, 4, 8, and 6, with a mean of 4.6.

     

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/W9Fp-O3Ddlo
    [2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 3 15:35:42 2019
    05/03/2019

    No sunspots were visible over the recent reporting week (April 25 through May 1), and so the average daily sunspot number dropped to zero after 8.1 during the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux declined from 70.6 to 67.5. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average planetary A index at 5.9, up from 4.7 in the previous week.

    Predicted solar flux is 72 on May 3-5, 75 on May 6-9, 78 on May 10-16, then 76, 72 and 70 on May 17-19, 69 on May 20-21, 68 on May 22, 67 on May 23 through June 2, 70 and 75 on June 3-4, 78 on June 5-12, then 76, 72, 70 and 69 on June 13-16.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 4-9, 8 on May 10, 5 on May 11-19, 8 on May 20, 5 on May 21-26, then 10, 14, 12, 8 and 5 on May 27-31, then 10, 12 and 14 on June 1-3, 8 on June 4-6, and 5 on June 7-15, then 8 on June 16.

    Interesting article in the New Yorker about aurora borealis tourism: https://bit.ly/2UvvVbN[1]

    Here is a video from Dr Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/W9Fp-O3Ddlo[2]

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 3-30, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on May 15, 19, 22-23
    quiet to unsettled on May 6, 8-16, 18, 24-27
    quiet to active on May 3-5, 17, 21, 28
    unsettled to active on May 7, 20, 29-30
    No Active to Disturbed conditions are forecast.

    Solar wind will intensify on May 3-4, 9-13, 15, (20,) 22-23, 30

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Thanks to M0VNG and others for the tip to this article on moving geomagnetism: https://bit.ly/2IWoqJA[3]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for April 25 through May 1, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 67.5, 67.2, 66.9, 67.9, 66.9, 68.5, and 67.6, with a mean of 67.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 6, 5, 5, 5, and 11, with a mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 2, 5, 4, 6, 4, and 8, with a mean of 4.7.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2UvvVbN
    [2] https://youtu.be/W9Fp-O3Ddlo
    [3] https://bit.ly/2IWoqJA
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 10 19:04:55 2019
    05/10/2019

    We saw zero sunspots from April 21 through May 2, but on May 3 sunspots returned. Average daily sunspot number rose from zero last week to 16.1 this week, and average daily solar flux increased as well, from 67.5 to 73.5.

    Both the average middle latitude and planetary A index this week were 6.6, and last week those numbers were 4.7 and 5.9 respectively.

    Predicted solar flux is 75 on May 10-11, 73 on May 12-15, 74 and 76 on May 16-17, 72 on May 18-20, 68 on May 21-22, 67 on May 23-26, then 69, 68, 69, 70 and 72 on May 27-31, 75 on June 1, 76 on June 2-13, 72 on June 14-16, 68 on June 17-18, 67 on June 19-22 and 69 on June 23.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 10, 14 and 12 on May 11-12, 5 on May 13-19, 8 on May 20, 5 on May 21-27, then 10, 12, 8 and 10 on May 28-31, then 5, 12 and 14 on June 1-3, 8 on June 4-6, 5 on June 7-15, 8 on June 16, and 5 on June 17-23.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 10 until June 5, 2019 from F.K. Janda OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on May 10, 18-19, 22-23, 26-27

    Quiet to unsettled on May 13-17, 21, 24-25, June 1-5

    Quiet to active on May 11-12, 30

    Unsettled to active on May 20, 28-29, 31

    Active to disturbed-none

    Solar wind will intensify on May (10,) 11-12, 14, (20,) 21-23, 29-31, June 1.

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

     

    Jeff Hartley, N8II, in West Virginia wrote on May 4: "We are in a bit of a funk waiting for sporadic E to improve. Starting around 1900Z last Saturday and Sunday April 27-28, 20 meters began closing to north Florida in the Florida QSO Party and was completely closed by 2200Z. Then some sporadic E appeared and 20 was open to most of Florida from around 2345Z-0145Z. On 40 meters, there was no skip zone, so the callers from everywhere drowned out the Florida mobiles they were calling.

    "Due to the higher MUF, the mobiles were also weaker than normal on 40 meters Saturday evening, but fixed stations were still pretty loud.

    "Today, May 4, is the 7th call area QSO Party. Twenty meters did not open well until about 1415Z and signals were good until around 1700Z, after which they were much weaker and absolutely nothing was heard on 15 meters. They were the worst 7 area QSO Party conditions that I can remember.

    "Most evenings around 2100-2300Z, 20 meters is wide open to southern Europe (many S9+ signals) despite the low SFI, but all DX signals are pretty weak by 1300Z almost every morning."

     

    The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, the Space Weather Woman, WX6SWW: https://bit.ly/2LxWPkc[1]

    And another: https://bit.ly/304HRp7[2]

     

    Steve Justus, W4SAJ, lives in Central Florida and was on 10 meters last Saturday (May 4) running FT8 mode at 100 W and beaming toward Australia with a 4-element mono-band Yagi. He was called by a station in Beijing, and is curious about the possible propagation mode, since Steve was not beaming in that direction. But FT8 is so efficient with decoding weak signals that this contact does not surprise me, although the signal strength may have surprised Steve.

     

    Mike Schaeffer, KA3JAW, in Easton, Pennsylvania wrote Thursday, May 9: "This evening, while monitoring CB channel 29 (27.285 MHz) AM mode between 0020-0203 UTC, May 10)  while the MUF reached 74 MHz over Maidenhead grid square EM53 (Starkville, MS), with the solar flux being 76, the following state stations were heard: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia. 0020 UTC is 14 minutes after local sunset, 8:06 pm EDT.

    "According to NOAA solar wind prediction models, the Earth is going to get slammed with a solar storm on May 11 at 1000 UTC. Expect noisy propagation conditions on the high frequency bands."

     

    This just in, via WW1ME, VE7DXW and AF7TI: https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/rt-iono/realtime/PA836_foF2.png[3]. It shows you recent foF2 readings from Point Arguello in Southern California. foF2 is the highest frequency reflected vertically from the ionosphere using an ionosonde.

    Here is a list of ionosondes: http://metrics.af7ti.com/[4]

    You can check data from other locations by plugging the station code (such as BC840 for Boulder, Colorado) into the Point Arguello URL (replacing PA836), like this: https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/rt-iono/realtime/BC840_foF2.png[5]

    I only know definitions of a few of the parameters listed, such as foF2 and TEC (Total Electron Content). I hope to have more info on these tools next week.

     

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[6].

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for May 2 through 8, 2019 were 0, 11, 12, 14, 25, 27, and 24, with a mean of 16.1. 10.7 cm flux was 69.2, 69.8, 72.3, 73.5, 76, 78.7, and 75.3, with a mean of 73.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 7, 10, 4, 5, 5, and 3, with a mean of 6.6. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 9, 4, 5, 5, and 2, with a mean of 6.6.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2LxWPkc
    [2] https://bit.ly/304HRp7
    [3] https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/rt-iono/realtime/PA836_foF2.png
    [4] http://metrics.af7ti.com/
    [5] https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/rt-iono/realtime/BC840_foF2.png
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat May 18 15:54:43 2019
    05/18/2019

    Tad Cook, K7RA, in Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity continues, and this reporting week, the average daily sunspot number rose from 16.1 to 22.7, while average daily solar flux went from 73.5 to 75.7. The two sunspot groups that appeared on May 3 and May 6 are fading fast and rotating off the visible solar disc. Two geomagnetically active days occurred on May 11 and 14, when the planetary A index reached 25 and 36.

    Predicted solar flux is 72 on May 16 - 18; 70 on May 19; 68 on May 20 - 22; 67 on May 23 - 29; 70, 72, 74, and 76 on May 30 - June 2; 77 on June 3 - 11; 75 on June 12; 72 on June 13 - 14; 70 on June 15; 69 on June 16 - 17; 68 on June 18; 67 on June 19 - 25, and 70, 72, 74, and 76 on June 26 - 29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 28, 20, and 8 on May 16 - 18; 5 on May 19 - 27; 10, 12, 8, and 10 on May 28 - 31; 5 on June 1 - 15; 8 on June 16; 5 on June 17 - 23; 10, 12, 8, and 10 on June 24 - 27, and 5 on June 28 - 29.

    On May 10 Jeff, N8II in West Virginia reported a sporadic E opening on 10 meters.

    "Even a couple of QRP stations with small antenna were loud. Starting around 1600 - 1900 UTC, I worked a mobile in South Carolina, several in north Florida, Louisiana, a couple of Tennessee, heard/worked all over Texas from Houston to Oklahoma border to west Texas, Missouri, several Illinois, several Indiana, Wisconsin, two Iowa, Nebraska," he said.

    "I also worked W2SDR in Salem County, New Jersey, apparently on Es backscatter; when I turned antenna from west to New Jersey, his signal did not improve (it was slightly weaker). All were 10 - meter SSB, most were S - 9 or better."

    Also on May 10, Jon, N0JK, reported 6 - meter sporadic E openings from Kansas.

    "Here in the Midwest, the band was open to W1, W2, W3, and W4. It was probably the most widespread opening so far this season," he reported. "I worked AA2UK FM29 at 1908 UTC on 6 meters. Saw PV8DX Brazil spotted to W1, W3, and W4."

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email
    me[1]. 

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean?," and check out[4] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. Monthly charts[6] offer propagation projections between the US and a dozen DX locations.

    Sunspot numbers for May 9 - 15 were 25, 24, 26, 24, 23, 24, and 13, with a mean of 22.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 76.2, 76.3, 78, 76, 74.7, 74.4, and 74, with a mean of 75.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 25, 4, 6, 36, and 6, with a mean of 13. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 19, 5, 5, 23, and 8, with a mean of 10.7.


    [1] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 24 18:10:42 2019
    05/24/2019

    May 18 was the last day we saw sunspot activity, after more than two weeks with daily sunspots visible. Average daily sunspot number declined to 5.3 this week following 22.7 during the previous week. Average daily solar flux declined from 75.7 to 69.8.

    Geomagnetic conditions were quieter, with average daily planetary A index declining from 13 to 5.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 67 on May 24-31, 74 on June 1, 76 on June 2-10, 74 on June 11, 72 on June 12-13, 70 on June 14-15, 69 on June 16-17, 68 on June 18, 67 on June 19-25, 70, 72 and 74 on June 26-28, then 76 on June 29 through July 7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 24, 8 on May 25, 5 on May 26-27, then 10, 12, 8 and 8 on May 28-31, 5 on June 1-15, 8 on June 16-18, 5 on June 19-23, then 10, 12, 8 and 10 on June 24-27, and 5 on June 28 through July 7.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 24-June 19, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on May 27, June 2, 4-5, 14-15, 18
    Quiet to unsettled on May 25-26, June 1, 6, 9-10, 17, 19
    Quiet to active on May 24, 30-31, June 3, 7-8, 12-13, 16
    Unsettled to active on May 28-29
    Active to disturbed on June (11)

    Solar wind will intensify on May 29-31, June 1, (10-12)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    On May 20, Markus Hansen, VE7CA, wrote: "Today I have been hearing many California beacons on 10 meters as well as K7EMX/B in Utah. So, I have been calling CQ on 28005.00 for several hours and not one single answer to my calls.

    "I have also been listening to AE6RQ's SDR and my signal has been between 579 and 20 over S 9 from 1700 to 2100Z.  I don't have a 6-meter antenna up right now, but I wish I did.

    "I appreciate your propagation reports. I copy them regularly on CW via W1AW."

    Max White, M0VNG, sent this piece on Earth's moving magnetic North Pole: https://bit.ly/2HC1j4e[1]

    Scott Avery, WA6LIE, in Salinas, California reported a nice sporadic E opening on 6 meters during Mother's Day, May 12. "We had a good opening from 1430-2030 UTC here in Salinas CM96. Had a lot of FT8 activity logging 45 contacts there and 6 QSOs on SSB.

    "Conditions were wild for a bit on SSB with multiple QSO's on the same frequency i.e.: 50.130, 50.135 etc. That lasted for about 2 hours after about 1600z.

    "I worked all I heard and worked many grid squares! The magic band... got to love it!"

    K9LA recently updated a 2007 article he wrote for WorldRadio on ionospheric sounders, which were referenced in recent bulletin ARLP019. See https://k9la.us/Measuring_the_Ionosphere.pdf[2]. The link to data from ionospheric sounders provided in ARLP019 is here: https://metrics.af7ti.com/[3]. Note that you can re-order the table by clicking on any of the headings. For instance, at 0740 UTC on May 17 if I click on the foF2 column, I can sort the ionosondes by foF2 values and discover that the ionosonde on Cocos Island has the highest foF2 value, at 10.465 MHz. Number 2 is Guam at 8.588 MHz, followed by Rome, Italy. Later at 0850 UTC those values were 11.56 MHz, 8.6 MHz and 6.95 MHz. In only an hour, propagation changes!

    The latest video from  Dr. Skov: https://youtu.be/hKDyUd1RC5Q[4]

    This weekend is the CQWW WPX contest, details here: https://www.cqwpx.com/[5]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11]. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for May 16 through 22, 2019 were 13, 13, 11, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 5.3. 10.7 cm flux was 73.6, 72.1, 70.6, 68, 68.7, 68, and 67.3, with a mean of 69.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 5, 5, 3, 6, 4, and 4, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 9, 7, 8, 3, 7, 4, and 5, with a mean of 6.1.



     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2HC1j4e
    [2] https://k9la.us/Measuring_the_Ionosphere.pdf
    [3] https://metrics.af7ti.com/
    [4] https://youtu.be/hKDyUd1RC5Q
    [5] https://www.cqwpx.com/
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 31 19:28:48 2019
    05/31/2019

    No sunspots appeared over this past reporting week, May 23-29.

    Compared to the previous seven days, average daily solar flux dropped from 69.8 to 67.4. Average daily planetary A index increased from 5 to 7.3, and average mid-latitude A index went from 6.1 to 8.1.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on May 31, 71 on June 1, 72 on June 2-6, 76 on June 7-10, 74 on June 11, 72 on June 12-13, 70 on June 14-15, 69 on June 16-17, 68 on June 18, 67 on June 19-26, 68 and 70 on June 27-28, 72 on June 29 through July 10, then 70 and 68 on July 11-12 and 67 on July 13-14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on May 31, 5 on June 1-4, 8 on June 5-6, 5 on June 7-15, 8 on June 16-18, 5 on June 19-23, then 10, 16, 12, 10, 10 and 8 on June 24-29 and 5 on June 30 through July 14.

    When might we see a return of visible sunspots? Perhaps a table of recent sunspot numbers and solar flux gives us a clue: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2019Q2_DSD.txt[1]

    Note when the solar flux dropped below 70, sunspots disappeared. With predicted flux values above 70 for the first half of June, perhaps we won't have long to wait.

    OK1HH sends us his geomagnetic forecast.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 31 thru June 26, 2019.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on June 13-14
    Quiet to unsettled on May 31, June 1-6, 9, 15, 19-22
    Quiet to active on June 8, 11-12, 16-18
    Unsettled to active on June 7, 10, 23-26

    Solar wind will intensify on (May 31-June 1,) June 10-14, 24-26

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    N8II sent us his observations on last weekend's CQ WW WPX CW contest, from West Virginia: "Band conditions during the 2 weeks leading up to the WPX CW contest were quite poor from here except for a few sporadic E openings including one on 10-meter phone via double hop to Oregon and Washington.

    "Right from the start of the contest, however, conditions were exceptional. In the first few minutes I worked New Zealand and Hawaii on 15 meters, both weak. Twenty meters was wide open to almost all of Europe excluding Britain and France/Benelux countries until about 0115Z, then still open well to some of Europe. Asia conditions improved then including some Russians in zone 18 and Kazakhstan. There was some short skip into the USA and Canada indicating some sporadic E help. N3QE in Maryland nearby reported best ever WPX CW 80-meter conditions and 40 meters was excellent as well Friday night.

    "Saturday morning the sporadic E fun continued. I also logged two big-gun Japanese stations around 1240Z. Over the weekend, I made 204 contacts on 15 meters. About 65% were in the USA and Canada, and then I went on to make 45 contacts on 10 meters. The first European to go into the 15-meter log was SP8R in Poland at 1256Z, followed quickly by UW3U in Ukraine. There were very few loud European signals on 15 meters on Saturday, but many that I struggled to work then were much louder on Sunday. Saturday conditions favored Central Europe with Hungary, Czech and Slovak Republics, Slovenia, Croatia and Italy going into the log.

    "Amazingly, I was able to technically work all continents over the two days on both 15 and 10 meters thanks to the multi-hop sporadic E! P33W in Cyprus was logged on 40-10 meters for Asia; CN3A, Morocco (also 40 through 10 meters); CR3DX, Madeira Island for Africa; WH7V on 10 meters (1853Z Saturday; very rare); several Hawaiians on 15 meters for Oceania; YW1K, Venezuela (my only South American on 10 meters); YT7Z in Serbia at 1442Z Sunday on 10 meters along with HG3N in Hungary; LZ8R in Bulgaria; IB9T in Sicily, and CR6K in Portugal - all for Europe, of course.

    "Each late afternoon Europe boomed in on 20 meters until past 2400Z (Friday/Saturday). At the end of the contest there was good sporadic E in almost every direction. On both Saturday and Sunday evenings there was essentially no skip zone on 40 meters versus the usual one extending into New York, New England, Ohio and North Carolina. Europe was exceptional on 40 meters from 2400Z-0200Z Saturday evening with low static crashes."

    When Jeff mentioned "Benelux," I had to look this up, and no, it wasn't a typo. In fact, it has been around since 1944: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benelux[2]. Until I read this, I also had no idea that "Luxembourgish" is a language.

    On May 25, Ken Brown, N4SO, of Alabama sent this report on recent 40-meter FT8 activity: "I was running FT8 at just 10 W output to a half-square antenna. I managed to work YB3BBF in Indonesia at 2343 UTC, which is unusual, especially with the Caribbean, South America, and Europe coming through all at the same time. Other call signs copied include 9K2NO, ON4XM, EW8W, JA1EOD, JK7CWL, YC8MJG, 4E1FNS and DS5USH."

    Here is the best article I've ever read describing the solar cycle prediction panel that met in Boulder in the first week in March, and "best" includes any of the previous meetings: https://bit.ly/2HMh21S[3]. The writer makes a common error in confusing the daily sunspot number with the number of sunspots, no doubt due to the arcane method for arriving at the number. She mentions 14 sunspots, but the sunspot number on the day of the meeting was 14, meaning there were four sunspots within a single group. The sunspot number counts 10 points for each group, and one point each for the sunspots within that group.

    Thanks to Paul Drahn, KD7HB for this: https://phys.org/news/2019-05-corroborates-planetary-tidal-solar.html[4]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for May 23 through 29, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 66.5, 66.4, 67, 68, 67.5, 68.1, and 68.2, with a mean of 67.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 4, 5, 10, 8, and 14, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 5, 6, 3, 6, 12, 9, and 16, with a mean of 8.1.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2019Q2_DSD.txt
    [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benelux
    [3] https://bit.ly/2HMh21S
    [4] https://phys.org/news/2019-05-corroborates-planetary-tidal-solar.html
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 7 17:46:55 2019
    06/07/2019

    According to Spaceweather.com[1], as of June 5 there have been no sunspots for 17 days in a row. Average daily solar flux went to 69.5 this reporting week (May 30 through June 5) from 67.4 in the previous seven days. Average daily planetary A index declined from 7.3 to 5.6, while mid-latitude A index went from 8.1 to 5.

    Last week I mentioned that sunspots should return soon, based on the predicted solar flux, but those projections have softened. On June 6 the 45-day predicted solar flux was 70 on June 7-14, 72, 72 and 71 on June 15-17, 70 on June 18-29, 71 on June 30, 72 on July 1-13, 71 on July 14, and 70 on July 15-21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 10 and 8 on June 7-9, 5 on June 10-22, then 8, 10, 12 and 8 on June 23-26, 5 on June 27-29, 8 on June 30 through July 2, 5 on July 3-4, 8 on July 5-6, 5 on July 7-19, then 8 and 10 on July 20-21.

    Spaceweather.com sent this alert on June 5: "A DAYTIME METEOR SHOWER IS UNDERWAY: Radars in the northern hemisphere are pinging with activity as one of the strongest meteor showers of the year takes place in broad daylight. The source of the shower is sun-grazing Comet 96P/Machholz."

    Dick Bingham, W7WKR, alerted us to this, and wrote: "What a fine six-meter opening this afternoon! I copied many of you on FT8 working across the country. The one I really would have enjoyed capturing was NW1P in FN67 - probably the only person in the USA there. Listening to all the meteor-echoes was impressive. Seemed like up to 10 per minute for a while."

    Jon Jones, N0JK, wrote: "I enjoyed reading N8II's detailed report of his activity in the WPX CW this year. I noted his rare Hawaiian contact on 10-meters described in the W1AW bulletin at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP022/2019[2] .

    "Six meters was also open from Hawaii to the mainland USA on May 25. At almost the exact same time Jeff worked WH7V on 10 meters, VE2XK worked NH6Y on 6 meters:

    NH6Y  19/05/25 1859Z  50313.0 FN07 ES BL10 TU FT8 qso & grid  VE2XK
    NH6Y  19/05/25 1857Z  50313.0 DN70MQ ES BL10TS                K0GU

    "No Hawaii contacts from here in Kansas, but I logged KP4EIT and KP4AJ on 6-meter FT8 at about 2000 UTC on May 25."

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 7 to July 3, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on June 13, 16-18, 28, 30, July 1, 3
    Quiet to unsettled on 8, 10-11, 14, 19-22, 27, 29
    Quiet to active on June (12, 15,) 26, July 2
    Unsettled to active on June (7, 9,) 23-25
    No active to disturbed days expected.

    Solar wind will intensify on June 10-14, 24-27

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Lance Collister, W7GJ, of Frenchtown, Montana is interested in 6 meter moonbounce, and runs a Magic Band EME email group, which you can subscribe to via his web site at http://www.bigskyspaces.com/w7gj/[3]

    Here is the latest video from Dr. Skov: https://youtu.be/dWwCxWEK1EQ[4]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for May 30 through June 5, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.7, 68.7, 69.7, 69.9, 69.8, 70, and 69.8, with a mean of 69.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 5, 4, 4, 5, 8, and 5, with a mean of 5.6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 5, 3, 4, 4, 7, and 4, with a mean of 5.

     


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP022/2019
    [3] http://www.bigskyspaces.com/w7gj/
    [4] https://youtu.be/dWwCxWEK1EQ
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 14 17:06:14 2019
    06/14/2019

    The long string of days with no sunspots continues, with spots last observed nearly a month ago, on May 18. According to spaceweather.com[1] on June 12, there have been no sunspots for 24 days in a row.

     

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 68 on June 14 through July 28. That's right, the prediction updated on June 13 is nothing but 68 on every day for the near future.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on June 14, 10 on June 15-18, 8 on June 19, 5 on June 20-23, then 8, 12 and 8 on June 24-26, 5 on June 27 through July 5, then 10, 8, 10 and 8 on July 6-9, then 5 on July 10-20, then 8, 10 and 8 on July 21-23, and 5 on July 24-28.


    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 14 until July 10, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on June 17-18, 28, July 3, 7-8

    Quiet to unsettled on 15, 19, 22, 27, 30, July 1-2, (10)

    Quiet to active on June (14,) 16, 20-21, 26, 29, (July 4-9)

    Unsettled to active on June 23-25

    No active to disturbed days predicted.

    Solar wind will intensify on June 14 (-15), 24-27, July 5-7, 10-11

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.


    The ARRL June VHF Contest was last weekend, and Scott Avery, WA6LIE, reports, "This last VHF contest was definitely unique. During the day expecting sporadic E, we were influenced by a lot of meteor scatter caused by the Beta Taurids, a daytime event that is not advertised as it is not seen and only radio astronomers and hams would be interested. I spent a lot of time on 6 meters FT8 mode as there was little SSB/CW activity. Two meters was the same.

    "I was bombarded with pings CQ TEST, but then the signal would vanish. This happened for most of the daylight hours with few exchanges. MSK144, which is a true meteor-scatter mode, worked great, but everyone was on FT8, so few contacts were made.

    "At about 0300z we had an opening to Japan that lasted for about 3 hours, so I snagged a few contacts. That opening from Japan to the central coast of California was about 1 hour long.

    "The Midwest enjoyed an opening to Japan on Sunday at around 2100z for about an hour.

    "Finally, at 2200z on Sunday, we got some multi-hop Es to the east coast. It was a bit late for the contest, but welcome."


    Jon Jones, N0JK, also sent a report on the VHF contest: "Conditions on 6 meters were uneven, but on Sunday even we had a great opening to Japan from here in the Midwest.

    "Operators in Kansas including N0LL, WQ0P, and KF0M worked Japan from 2330 to 0030z. I de-coded JG1TSG at about 0020z with just a 1/4 wavelength vertical whip antenna on my car.

    "I should note that W7D/R put rare grid DN10 in many logs."


    Steve Sacco, NN4X, reported, "Finally, some decent E-skip on 12 meters! I was able to work S9A and some others for new DXCC entities on the band today (Sunday 6/9/2019, 1537Z on FT8)."

     

    Check out the latest video from WX6SWW: https://www.youtube.com/c/TamithaSkov[2]

     

    This weekend is the CW portion of the All-Asian DX Contest: https://www.jarl.org/English/4_Library/A-4-3_Contests/2019AA_rule.htm[3]

     

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[4].

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].


    Sunspot numbers for June 6 through 12, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.9, 68.9, 68.4, 68.4, 68.9, 69.7, and 69.5, with a mean of 69. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 18, 6, 3, 3, and 4, with a mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 6, 14, 8, 4, 3, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.

     

     


    [1] http://spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/c/TamithaSkov
    [3] https://www.jarl.org/English/4_Library/A-4-3_Contests/2019AA_rule.htm
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 21 19:24:08 2019
    06/21/2019

    The quiet sun continues, with still another week passing with zero sunspots. For 33 days in a row, no sunspot activity, as of Thursday, June 20. So far this year 62% of the days are without sunspots, really the same as all of last year, which was 61%.

    Average daily solar flux over the past week was 67.1, down from 69 last week and 69.5 the week before.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 67 on June 21-28, 69 on June 29 through July 4, 68 on July 5-6, 69 on July 7-9, 68 on July 10-11, 67 and 66 on July 12-13, 67 on July 14-20, 68 on July 21-24, 69 on July 25-31, 68 on August 1-2, and 69 on August 3-4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 21-23, 10 and 8 on June 24-25, 5 on June 26 through July 5, 8 on July 6, 5 on July 7-9, 8 on July 10-11, 5 and 8 on July 12-13, 12 on July 14-17, 10, 8, 5, 8, 12 and 8 on July 18-23, and 5 on July 24 through August 1, then 8, 5 and 5 on August 2-4.

    The summer solstice occurs at 11:54 AM EDT on Friday, June 21. And of course, the next day is ARRL Field Day. The low predicted planetary A index over Field Day weekend is a welcome sign, with little chance of any geomagnetic disturbance.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 21 to July 17, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, who sees slightly more active geomagnetic conditions on Field Day weekend.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on June 27, 30, July 9
    Quiet to unsettled on June 22, 28-29, July 3, 8, 10-11, 13-17
    Quiet to active on June 21, 23, 26, July 1-2, 4-5, 12
    Unsettled to active on June 24-25, July (6- ) 7
    No disturbed days predicted.

    Solar wind will intensify on June (23) 24-27, (28), July 5-7, (8-9,) 10-11

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Martin McCormick, WB5AGZ, commented that he doesn't think the solar flux has ever been below 66, where it was a few days ago, so we must be at solar minimum. But I pointed out that if you look at page 11 in this Preliminary Report and Forecast, it shows predicted flux values going even lower: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2019/WeeklyPDF/prf2283.pdf[1]

    But I don't believe those numbers. I don't see how it is possible that solar flux will go below 60 in 2021 and 2022. I keep checking at the beginning of every month, waiting for this prediction to be corrected, but so far haven't seen it.

    Rich Zwirko, K1HTV, and Steve, NN4X, reported a transatlantic 2 meter contact by D41CV: https://bit.ly/2RstTcP[2]

    An article about Europe's L5 project, and what it means for space weather forecasting: https://bit.ly/2L4thc7[3]

    Dr. Skov's most recent video: https://youtu.be/F5Wa6bXGy_I[4]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for June 13 through 19, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 67.5, 68, 66.7, 65.9, 66.3, 67, and 68, with a mean of 67.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 4, 4, 3, 4, and 4, with a mean of 5.3. Middle latitude A index was 12, 13, 6, 6, 5, 3, and 4, with a mean of 7.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2019/WeeklyPDF/prf2283.pdf
    [2] https://bit.ly/2RstTcP
    [3] https://bit.ly/2L4thc7
    [4] https://youtu.be/F5Wa6bXGy_I
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 28 17:47:16 2019
    06/28/2019

    A new sunspot group emerged on June 24, but don't count on it persisting much longer. It emerged already far along the western limb and is about to rotate off the visible solar disc. Sunspot numbers on June 24-27 were 24, 12, 11 and 11.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 0 to 6.7 over the week of June 20-26, while average daily solar flux increased from 67.1 to 67.4.

    Average daily planetary A index decreased from 5.3 to 5, and average daily middle latitude A index decreased from 7 to 5.7.

    Predicted solar flux is 67 on June 28 through July 5, 68 on July 6, 69 on July 7-9, 68 on July 10-11, 67 on July 12-27, 68 on July 28, 69 on July 29-31, 68 on August 1-2, 69 on August 3-5, 68 on August 6-7, and 67 on August 8-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 28-30, 8 on July 1, 5 on July 2-5, 8 on July 6, 5 on July 7-9, 8 on July 10-11, 5 on July 12-20, then 8, 12 and 10 on July 21-23, 5 on July 24 through August 1, 8 on August 2, 5 on August 3-5, 8 on August 6-7, and 5 on August 8-11.

    You can see daily updates of these predictions, usually sometime after 2100 UTC at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[1] .

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for June 28 until July 24, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, who has been compiling this weekly geomagnetic forecast since January 1978.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on June 28, 30, July 9, 14-16, 21
    Quiet to unsettled on June 29, July 3, 8, 10-11, 13, 17, 20
    Quiet to active on June July 1 (- 2), 4-6, 12, 18, 24
    Unsettled to active on July 7, 19, 22-23
    No disturbed conditions predicted.

    Solar wind will intensify on June (28,) July 5-7, (8-9,) 10-11, (17-19, 22-24). Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    On Tuesday, June 25, Steve Sacco, NN4X, reported from Florida: "Amazing over-the-pole conditions on 17 meters this morning. Decoded dozens of Japanese stations on FT8 between 1200Z and 1245Z and worked a few. UA0BA was logged at 1512Z, and I worked HS0ZIV at 1519Z. I was called by BH4QYX immediately afterwards but did not complete that contact."

    The latest video from Dr. Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/XzX1Ea7pqz4[2]



    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[3].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for June 20 through 26, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 24, 12, and 11, with a mean of 6.7. 10.7 cm flux was 67.7, 66.5, 66.4, 67.2, 67.9, 67.9, and 68, with a mean of 67.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 4, 3, 5, 4, and 6, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 8, 8, 5, 4, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 5.7.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [2] https://youtu.be/XzX1Ea7pqz4
    [3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 5 16:05:18 2019
    07/05/2019

    Tad Cook, K7RA, in Seattle, reports: Solar activity remains very low. Over the past 2 weeks, only 4 days had visible sunspots, so the average daily sunspot number went from 6.7 in last week's report to 1.6 this week.

    Average daily solar flux remained the same, moving only from 67.4 to 67.5. Geomagnetic activity was also flat, with average daily planetary A index changing from 5 to 4.9, and average daily mid-latitude A index from 5.7 to 5.1.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is also flat, with solar flux at 68 on July 5 - 12; 67 on July 13 - 19; 68 on July 20 - August 3; 69 on August 4 - 5; 68 on August 6 - 7; 67 on August 8 - 15, and 68 on August 16 - 18.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 10 on July 5 - 6; 5 on July 7 - 8; 10, 15, 12, and 8 on July 9 - 12; 5 on July 13 - August 1; 8 on August 2; 5 on August 3 - 5; 8 on August 6 - 7, and 5 on August 8 - 18.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the rest of July. Geomagnetic field will be: 


    o Quiet on July 12 - 16, 25 - 26
    o Quiet to unsettled on July 8 - 9, 17, 20 - 21, (27)
    o Quiet to active on July 10 - 11, (19, 21, 24)
    o Unsettled to active on July 6 - 7, (18, 22-23, 28 - 31)
    o Active to disturbed on July 5
    o Solar wind will intensify on July 5 - 7, (8 - 9,) 10 - 11, (17 - 19, 22 - 24)

    (Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.) 

    Next geomagnetic activity forecast will be issued on July 18. 

    Thanks to N7SO for this article[1] from Sky & Telescope magazine. 

    Spaceweather.com[2] reported this week that a sunspot from new (i.e., next) solar Cycle 25 appeared briefly on July 1. This is based on the fact that the polarity of the sunspot, which was visible so briefly that it was not assigned a number, was opposite that of spots from current Cycle 24. 

    So far Cycle 25 sunspots have appeared on December 20, 2016; April 8 and November 17, 2017, and May 28 and July 1, 2018.

    Sunspot numbers for June 27 through July 3, 2019 were 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 67, 68.1, 67.6, 67.4, 68.2, 67.3, and 66.9, with a mean of 67.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 4, 9, 5, and 5, with a mean of 4.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 3, 3, 10, 5, and 6, with a mean of 5.1.

    Back in April, some new solar cycle predictions[3] were published. Note there is no expectation for another Maunder Minimum.

    On July 1, K1HTV made what may be the first documented transatlantic 50 MHz two-way contacts using the new FT4 mode. The first FT4 contact at 1854 UTC was completed with F5SSD and 5 minutes later, with IZ8WGU.

    Wayne, W2ZDP, in Clinton, North Carolina, reports:

    "On July 1, starting about 1400Z, when I first noticed it at my location in FM04, 6 meter FT8 was like 20 meter FT8, with Europe coming in all day long, lasting until about 2000.

    "I'm sure that I'm not the only one to comment on this, but I only have a modest 6 meter station - 100 W to a 4-element beam at 30 feet. I have never witnessed such a prolific opening to Europe since I moved from FN02 to FM04.

    "When was all said and done, I managed to work 14 countries and 22 grids. This would have been a normal day on 17 meters, but on 6...spectacular!"

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean?," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. Monthly charts[8] offer propagation projections between the US and a dozen DX locations.

    Share[9] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/exploring-solar-system-mission-updates/
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/ [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 12 18:23:48 2019
    07/12/2019

    Like June 24-27, July 7 had a new spot from cycle 25, according to the magnetic signature. This week's brief appearance was last Sunday with a daily sunspot number of 12.

    Average daily solar flux declined marginally from 67.5 to 67.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 67 on July 12 through August 25. That's right, 67 on every day.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on July 12, 5 on July 13-15, then 12 and 8 on July 16-17, 5 on July 18-27, 8 on July 28, 5 on July 29 through August 4, then 12, 15 and 12 on August 5-7, 5 on August 8-23, 8 on August 24 and 5 on August 25.

     

    Interesting article on space weather: https://bit.ly/2G7Oz5g[1]

     

    A recent video from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/q066gUaSsAU[2]

     

    OK1HH is taking a week off from his geomagnetic forecast and will return next week.

     

    On Thursday night ,as I put this bulletin to bed, I am enjoying monitoring remote receivers around the world, via https://sdr.hu/?q=kiwisdr[3]. I am currently listening to European CW traffic on 40 meters from a receiver in Ukraine.

     

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[4].

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for July 4 through 10, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 12, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.7. 10.7 cm flux was 67.8, 67.5, 66.5, 67.3, 66.5, 66.8, and 67.6, with a mean of 67.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 3, 5, 9, 17, and 15, with a mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 6, 5, 5, 7, 16, and 13, with a mean of 8.6.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2G7Oz5g
    [2] https://youtu.be/q066gUaSsAU
    [3] https://sdr.hu/?q=kiwisdr
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 19 18:43:55 2019
    07/19/2019

    Very low solar activity continues. Over the past week, average daily solar flux changed insignificantly from 67.1 to 67. There were no sunspots.

    Average daily planetary A index changed from 8.4 to 5.9, while mid-latitude A index changed from 8.6 to 6.7. Conditions remain quiet.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on July 19-26, and 67 on July 27 to September 1.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 19-22, 8 on July 23, 5 on July 24-27, 8 on July 28, 5 on July 29 through August 3, then 8, 15, 15 and 8 on August 4-7, 5 on August 8-10, then 10, 12 and 8 on August 11-13, 5 on August 14-23, 8 on August 24, 5 on August 25-30, then 8 and 15 on August 31 through September 1.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 19 until August 14, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on July 19, 24-25, August 2-3, 8, 13-14
    Quiet to unsettled on July 26-27, 29-31, August 1, 4, 9
    Quiet to active on July 20-23, August 7, 10-12
    Unsettled to active on July 28, August 5-6
    No active to disturbed days are predicted.

    Solar wind will intensify on August (2-3,) 7-8, (9-14)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    On July 17 spaceweather.com[1] reported a coronal hole spewing a stream of solar wind, with arrival expected to cause minor geomagnetic upset around July 19-20.

    They also reported that so far in this calendar year 64% of all days were without sunspots. Last year the total number of spotless days was 61%, 28% in 2017, 9% in 2016, and zero days were spotless in 2011-2015, except for 2 days in 2011 and 1 day in 2014.

    On Saturday morning, July 13, Charles Brown, N4SO, of Grand Bay, Alabama reported, "I was on 24.915 MHz using the FT8 digital mode. My output power was 15 W and I was testing a new antenna.

    "I worked K1HZ (Texas), W6SR (California), K0TW (Arizona), K0COL (Colorado), KF7F (Utah),
    TG9AKH (Guatemala), and K0JJ (Oregon). I saw other DX, but no contacts.

    "The 12 meter band opened today (Saturday) with only three stations calling CQ: W2SKI (Virginia), XE2YWB (Zacatecas, NW of Mexico City) and VE2GCE (Quebec)."

    Richard Zabrodski, VE6GK, wrote, "It has been almost 50 years since my first contact and I still love learning about and following the sunspot cycles."

    Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted this video on July 12: https://youtu.be/ooJy5zmqV08[2]

    Also, on July 12, Joe Lewis, KD4SR, reported (in a message titled "Don't forget Sporadic-E!"), "Yesterday I worked Puerto Rico, Haiti, Canada and many others from Central Florida on 6 meters with 100 W and FT8. Japan was worked by others.  Europe, Africa, and all over North and South America have been heard regularly on 6 almost. I am just using a G5RV and ground plane antennas.  Summer is Es season!"

    Jeff Hartley, N8II, wrote, "The day before the IARU HF Championship, 10 meters opened fairly well to Europe; at around 2016Z I turned on the radio to find EA4ZK on 10 CW with a S6-8 signal and I made an easy contact. This was followed by CW contacts with Belgium, Germany, Oliver, France, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Italy, Aruba and  Barbados. I switched to SSB and worked EC1KR in Spain and F4FPG. The last European contact was with OK1CF at 2217Z.

    "Chores prevented any activity in the contest on the 13th until 1910Z when I found EI7M, Ireland, on 10-meter CW. The band was also wide open to New England, New York and Florida. Thanks to the many IARU member headquarters stations being on all bands whenever open, I managed quite a few European contacts.

    "On CW, The IARU HQ stations in France, England, and later Belgium, Poland, Czech Republic, and Slovenia were worked along with stations in Germany, Croatia, Belgium, Hungary, and England.

    "On SSB at 1932Z I quickly worked six HQ stations in Croatia, France, Serbia, Italy, and Switzerland, and then later adding Germany. It was disappointing that there was almost no non-HQ activity on SSB.

    "The propagation highlight was hearing 4Z7ZZ in Israel with a strong signal calling IO8HQ in Italy; that is huge number of Sporadic E hops! PX2A in Brazil was also logged at 1916Z.

    "On 15 meters, the European stations were more numerous as were many USA stations in all parts of the country. There was some propagation to all of South America, and Hawaii was good copy via mostly Sporadic E, I would guess.

    "By the time I managed to get some time on 20 meters, the E-skip to Europe was largely gone, but many European HQ stations were still active with good signals. Late in the evening past 0300Z, I was called by ZL2BAQ and ZL4NR in New Zealand, and VK4SP in Queensland, Australia on 20-meter SSB.

    "On CW, at around 0300Z, the band was open to ITU zones across Asiatic Russia from Sakhalin Island to the Ural mountains, but activity was low.

    "Forty meters was open well to the USA, Canada, and Europe from sunset through 0300Z, but the HQ station count was lower than expected.

    "NU1AW, the IARU HQ station in Newington, Connecticut, was very active on all bands. It was easy making CW and SSB contacts 10 and 15 meters, and CW on 20 and 40 meters."

    Here is the very latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzDm-h16L8c[3]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for July 11 through 17, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 67.1, 66.8, 66, 67.2, 67.1, 67.2, and 67.8, with a mean of 67. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 5, 6, 5, 7, 4, and 6, with a mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 5, 6, 6, 8, 5, and 8, with a mean of 6.7.


    [1] http://spaceweather.com
    [2] https://youtu.be/ooJy5zmqV08
    [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzDm-h16L8c
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 26 18:10:25 2019
    07/26/2019

    On Monday July 22 a new sunspot appeared, but just for one day. The magnetic signature showed it was from the current Cycle 24.

    Average daily solar flux increased insignificantly from 67 to 67.3 this week.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 for July 26 through August 1, then 67 on August 2 through September 8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on July 26-27, 5 on July 28 through August 3, then 8, 15, 15 and 8 on August 4-7, 5 on August 8-18, 8 on August 19-20, 5 on August 21, 8 on August 22-24, 5 on August 25-30, then 8, 15, 15 and 8 on August 31 through September 3, and 5 on September 4-8.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 26 through August 21, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on August 2-3, 8, 13-14, 21
    Quiet to unsettled on July 26-27, 29-31, August 1, 9, 15-18
    Quiet to active on (July 28,) August 4, 7, (10-12,) 19-20
    Unsettled to active on August 5-6
    Active to disturbed - none

    Solar wind will intensify on August (2-3,) 7-8, (9-14). Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    End of the current cycle, and beginning of the new one: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-07/ncfa-ot072319.php[1]

     

    Max White, M0VNG, sent this, about the Solar Wind Composition Experiment during the Apollo 11 mission: https://bit.ly/2y849cJ[2]

    Here is the latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/Qbqku2_NgDg[3]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for July 18 through 24, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.6. 10.7 cm flux was 67, 66.7, 67, 67.7, 67.3, 67.4, and 67.8, with a mean of 67.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 3, 8, 8, 6, and 5, with a mean of 5.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 5, 9, 11, 7, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.

     

     


    [1] https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-07/ncfa-ot072319.php
    [2] https://bit.ly/2y849cJ
    [3] https://youtu.be/Qbqku2_NgDg
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 2 21:24:20 2019
    08/02/2019

    No sunspots were observed over the past week, and solar flux remains flat, with average daily values declining from 67.3 to 67.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 5.3 to 5, and middle latitude A index from 6.3 to 5.9.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days remains at 67, August 2 through September 15, every day.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 2-3, then 8, 18, 15, 12 and 8 on August 4-8, 5 on August 9-16, 8 on August 17-18, 5 on August 19-26, then 8, 16, 8, 5, 8, 22 and 16 on August 27 through September 2, 5 on September 3-12, 8 on September 13-14, and 5 on August 15.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 2-28, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on August 2-3, 8, 12-15, 21-22
    Quiet to unsettled on August 9, 16-17, 23, 25
    Quiet to active on August 4-5, 7, (10-11,) 19-20, 24, 28
    Unsettled to active on August 6, (18, 26-27)
    Active to disturbed-None!

    Solar wind will intensify on August (2-3,) 6-8, (9-14,) 27-28

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Spaceweather.com reminds us, "BE ALERT FOR PERSEID FIREBALLS: Earth is entering a stream of debris from giant Comet Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower. Forecasters say the shower won't peak until Aug. 12-13, but already NASA cameras are catching Perseid fireballs streaking over the USA. The Perseids produce more fireballs than any other annual shower--largely due to the size of the parent comet--so your chances of seeing one are good."

    Larry Koziel, K8MU, sent this, about simulating the Sun in a lab: https://bit.ly/2LQLP0N[1]

    Larry and several others including Max White, M0VE, reported recently about solar tsunamis: https://bit.ly/2OvhlDr[2]

    George, N2CG, in Saddle Brook, New Jersey wrote on July 29: "So far this year's Summer Es season daily FT8 openings between North America and Europe on 6 meters have mostly bypassed the FN20 and adjacent grids. They seem to favor the southeast (especially grids EL and EM) as seen daily on the DXMAPS Website.

    "Whatever European openings I did manage to work so far were short lived, lasting just a few minutes to 20 minutes at best. However, that changed on Sunday July 28, 2019 beginning around 2100 UTC in southeast and around 2200 UTC at my location in New Jersey, when Finnish, Swedish, and Norwegian stations were copied on FT8 for more than an hour. I managed to decode the following stations: OH2MA, OH2FQV, OH2FNR, OH3XF, LA2XPA and SM3CCM, and I worked OG2M, OH3SR and OH3XA. This was my first time working Finland on 6 meters, and shortly after my contact OH3SR he verified our QSO on LoTW!

    "August will bring the prime 6-meter Es season to a close. However, maybe the 6-meter gods have another surprise opening before the end of the season."

    The latest video from WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/UpyFOZLacvw[3]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for July 25 through 31, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.2, 67.6, 66.7, 67.1, 66.1, 66.2, and 66.9, with a mean of 67. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 8, and 8 with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 3, 4, 4, 7, 5, 8, and 10, with a mean of 5.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2LQLP0N
    [2] https://bit.ly/2OvhlDr
    [3] https://youtu.be/UpyFOZLacvw
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 9 17:44:16 2019
    08/09/2019

    A new sunspot group appeared only briefly this week, on August 7-8. It was sunspot 2747, from current Cycle 24. Sunspot numbers on Monday and Tuesday were 11 and 12.

    Average daily solar flux shifted only slightly from last week, from 67 to 67.2. Average planetary A index, a geomagnetic indicator aggregated from magnetometers around the world, more than doubled, from 5 to 10.3. This was due to solar wind which raised the planetary A index to 35 on Monday. Alaska's high latitude college A index reached 61 on Monday and 24 on Tuesday.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on August 9-16 and 67 on August 17 through September 22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 9, then 8 on August 10-11, 5 on August 12-16, 8 on August 17-18, 5 on August 19-25, 8 on August 26-28, 5 on August 29-30, then 12, 25, 25, 16 and 8 on August 31 through September 4, then 5, 8 and 8 on September 5-7, 5 on September 8-12, 8 on September 13-14, then 5 on September 15-21 and 8 on September 22.

    OK1HH sent his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 9-September 4, 2019, a day early this week. There will be no forecast from him next week.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: August 12, 16, 21, September 4
    Quiet to unsettled on: August 9, 13-15, 17, 22, 29-30, September 3
    Quiet to active on: August 10 (- 11,) 19-20, 23-25, 28, 31
    Unsettled to active on: August (18, 26-28), September 1, (-2)
    Active to disturbed-none

    Solar wind will intensify on: August (9-14,) 27-29, (30-31, September 1-2)

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Next forecast will be issued on August 22

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted a new 3-hour-long space weather mini-course a few days ago: https://youtu.be/56oVhXD7AZE[1]

    And here is her video report from August 8: https://youtu.be/a3hiGPOHZ-U[2]

    Tamitha will be one of the speakers this Saturday at the Pacific Northwest DX Convention, along with Joe Taylor, K1JT: https://pacificnwdxconvention.com/[3]

    Mark, K4SO, in Virginia wrote on August 8: "My friend and neighbor, K1HTV, suggested I drop you a note about a brief, surprising opening on 10 meters this morning.

    "I had my small tribander antenna (an A3S) almost due north and decided to drop down from 6 meters to 10 meters, on the way down to more active bands. JTDX was running, as usual, when I got a JTAlert audio message and saw a decode of RV0AR, calling CQ SA. I assumed it was a broken decode of some noise, but in the next cycle it changed to CQ NA! I started calling with 100 W and turned on my Alpha 89 amplifier.

    I used JTAlert's text function to encourage him to keep calling, but there was no indication he was online. Luckily for me, his signal continued to build as the amplifier tubes warmed up."

    Mike, KA3JAW, likes to monitor various VHF services, such as FM broadcast, for sporadic-e. He forwarded a report from William Hepburn in Grimsby, Ontario Canada who monitored over 45 minutes of e-skip from 162 MHz weather radio broadcasts from eight stations in Kansas, Arkansas, Colorado and Oklahoma from 2:19 PM to 3:06 PM local time back on July 20. Distances ranged from 839 to 1,253 miles.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for August 1 through 7, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, 11, and 0, with a mean of 3.3. 10.7 cm flux was 66.8, 66.9, 65.7, 66.9, 68.1, 68.1, and 68, with a mean of 67.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 3, 4, 35, 12, and 6 with a mean of 10.3. Middle latitude A index was 8, 4, 4, 6, 20, 10, and 6, with a mean of 8.3.



     


    [1] https://youtu.be/56oVhXD7AZE
    [2] https://youtu.be/a3hiGPOHZ-U
    [3] https://pacificnwdxconvention.com/
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 16 18:14:24 2019
    08/16/2019

    No sunspots were visible over the recent reporting week, Thursday through Wednesday, August 8 through 14.

    According to Spaceweather.com, 67% of the days so far in 2019 have been spotless, and for all of 2018 it was 61%. In the previous solar minimum in 2008 and 2009 the spotless days ran 73% and 71%, respectively.

    Solar flux has been minimal and unremarkable, with average daily solar flux changing only to 67.4 from 67.2 last week.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is likewise unremarkable, at 67 from August 15 until September 29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 16, 5 on August 17, 6 on August 18, 8 on August 19-20, 5 on August 21-25, 8 on August 26-28, 5 on August 29-31, then 38 and 14 on September 1-2, 5 on September 3-5, 8 on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-11, 8 on September 12, 5 on September 13-21, 8 on September 22-24, 5 on September 25-27, and in a recurrence of geomagnetic activity reported in last week's bulletin and also predicted for September 1, 38 on September 28 and 14 on September 29.

    On Tuesday, September 10, 2019 I will be conducting an informal presentation on space weather, propagation and my involvement in Amateur Radio since being licensed at the end of cycle 19 at age 12, at the monthly meeting in Seattle of the Western Washington DX Club. See https://www.wwdxc.org/[1] for details.

    Last weekend was the 65th annual Pacific Northwest DX Convention, and among the presentations was an excellent talk by Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW. If you ever get a chance to see her give a talk, don't miss it. Her presentation was excellent.

    Jim Brown, W5ZIT of Farmersville, Texas (or Tucson, AZ) wrote on August 15: "I had just finished an Olivia contact with Fergus ZL2VF via grey line (7 dB s/n peak) as we usually do around 0300Z when I noticed a very strong PSK31 signal on 20 meters, which I assumed was a nearby local.

    "When I checked I found that it was Suke, JM7OLW, at 30 dB plus s/n ratio.  Suke runs 200 W to a 5-element Yagi up about 100 feet. Suke gave me a very good 20 dB plus s/n report.

    "This morning I tuned across a dead 20-meter band and again saw a 30 dB plus s/n signal, which I again assumed was a local. Instead it was Fred, W4PKU, Fred in Virginia. With signals barely copyable on 20-meter PSK in the last few days, I was really surprised to see this kind of signal. Fred gave me a 30 dB plus s/n report also, from my 30 W into an 80-meter OCF antenna. Turns out he had also worked Suke in the last few days also.

    "The bands can still surprise you even at the low end of the cycle."

    Be sure to check out the W5ZIT page on QRZ.com.

    Ken Brown, N4SO, wrote on August 15: "Using FT8 on 18 MHz, I added Reunion Island and Fiji to the list as new countries for me on this mode. I have also added a note on both Pacific and Europe being decoded at 2210 UTC.

    "I monitored 17 meters on for FT8 activity for several more days and made some contacts with just 10 W and a half-square antenna.

    "The band stays open until about 0300 to 0400 UTC. The numbers on the left-hand side of the following list (captured from my WSJT-X software) indicate the UTC time. I noted that it is possible to receive weak Pacific Ocean stations or W8 (K8FAM), until the band closes completely."

    033915 -17 -0.5 1083 ~  CQ E51BQ BG08      S. Cook Is.

    033830   6  0.1 1198 ~  CQ K9OM EN65       USA (The band opens at approximately 1200 UTC to all of the Northeast USA, Canada, and also to Europe.)

    130800 -12  0.5  306 ~  CQ TO5M GN16       Reunion Is.

    131130  -9  0.5  305 ~  N4SO TO5M 73      (Reunion Island new country)

    120430 -14 -0.0  418 ~  CQ EA6VQ JM19      Balearic Is.

    122200 -14  0.1  902 ~  CQ IZ8VYU JN71     Italy

    123130 -11  0.1  902 ~  N4SO IZ8VYU 73

    124830 -17  0.6 1930 ~  CQ 9K2NO LL39      Kuwait

    125215  -3  0.3 1692 ~  CQ HA7TM JN97      Hungary

    131415 -10  0.2 1713 ~  CQ OK2WMC JN99     Czech Rep.

    120730  -6  0.0 1452 ~  CQ W9XB EN52       USA

    134700   4  0.1  883 ~  CQ N4TZ EN70       USA

    122215 -17  0.3 1333 ~  CQ HA7TM JN97      Hungary

    124745 -19  0.2  831 ~  CQ F8DZU JN15      France

    131915 -15  0.4 2214 ~  CQ VE3MGY EN92     Canada

    141115 -18  0.1  709 ~  CQ PA9CC JO32      Netherlands

    During daylight hours, the 18 MHZ band continues to remain open to North America, Europe and also to the Caribbean and South America and even Africa.

    Around 1800 UTC 184700   0  0.4 2513 ~  9G2HO KA1J FN31 Ghana

    Propagation to both Cyprus and Fiji is possible, with the signals from Europe and Russia very weak and not workable. Fiji was worked though.

    221000 -16 -0.1  949 ~  CQ 5B4AMX KM65     Cyprus

    221300 -13  0.2 2098 ~  CQ 3D2AG RH91      Fiji  (new country)

    221700 -17  0.4 2095 ~  N4SO 3D2AG -11

    "Before sundown (7:36 local time) there is a possibility of Japan and Far East stations, or to New Zealand and also Australia.  Good times are 2200 to 0200 UTC.  Japan is favorable after 2200 UTC.   Most of these were easily worked:"

    222300 -14  0.1 1825 ~  N4SO JF8QNF -19

    222300 -12 -0.4  654 ~  N4SO JH0INP PM96

    222900 -12  0.1 1908 ~  N4SO JH7CVM 73

    222930 -13  0.1 2043 ~  N4SO JH2FXK RR73

    224230 -13  0.4  474 ~  N4SO JA1XEC RR73

    224900  -7  0.1  787 ~  N4SO JA1NCZ RR73

    020000 -16 -0.1 2155 ~  N4SO VK7WX R-10

    020015  Tx      2375 ~  VK7WX N4SO RR73

    020030 -17 -0.1 2156 ~  N4SO VK7WX 73

    222415 -17  0.1 1859 ~  CQ DX JA7QVI QM08  Japan

    000700 -13 -0.1  485 ~  CQ JA8KSF QN03     Japan

    004300 -16  0.1 1650 ~  CQ VK4PY QG62      Australia

    004730  -3  0.1 1536 ~  CQ ZL2IFB RF80     New Zealand (This ZL station was worked with 10 W, and the numbers  (-1) show good signals propagated to New Zealand.)

    004830  -1  0.2 1536 ~  N4SO ZL2IFB R-02

    "During the evening hours the band is open to the West coast and British Columbia, Canada, and the Pacific such as FK8 New Caledonia. The band usually closes with W6, W7, W0 or W9 in the USA, or a Pacific Ocean station (South Cook Island E51BQ)."

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[2].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for August 8 through 14, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.6, 67.2, 67.2, 67.6, 67.2, 66.8, and 67.4, with a mean of 67.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 8, 6, 5, 7, and 5 with a mean of 6.3. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 8, 7, 7, 8, and 5, with a mean of 6.9.

     

     


    [1] https://www.wwdxc.org/
    [2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 23 18:34:13 2019
    08/23/2019

    Spotless days continue this week, with consecutive days without sunspots now at 16 days, according to spaceweather.com[1] as of August 22.

    Average daily solar flux for all practical purposes was unchanged, from 67.4 last week to 67.5 this week. Average daily planetary A index went slightly lower from 6.3 to 4.4.

    Predicted solar flux looks the same as it has been for months now, at 67 on August 23 to September 11, 68 on September 12-21 and 67 again on September 22 through October 6.

    The forecast for planetary A index stands at 5 on August 23-25, then 12, 12 and 8 on August 26-28, 5 on August 29-31, then with a recurring coronal hole, 38 and 14 on September 1-2, 5 on September 3-5, 8 on September 6-7, then 5 on September 8-15, 7 on September 16-17, 6 on September 18, 5 on September 19-21, 8 on September 22-24, 5 on September 25-27, then with the return of that coronal hole 38 and 14 on September 28-29, 5 on September 30 through October 2, 8 on October 3-4 and 5 on October 5-6.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 23-September 18, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH who has issued weekly forecasts since January, 1978.

    Geomagnetic field will be:

    Quiet on: September 4-5, 9-15
    Quiet to unsettled on: August 29-31, September 3, 6-8
    Quiet to active on: August (23-25,) September 16-18
    Unsettled to active on: August (26-28), September 2
    Active to disturbed: September 1

    Solar wind will intensify on: August 27-29, (30-31,) September 1-2, (4-7). Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    There was an error in last week's bulletin, in which we misidentified a callsign from Reunion Island when it was really St. Pierre et Miquelon. Because of the proximity to Nova Scotia, I always thought it part of Canada, but it is really a French possession. That's right, a possession of France right here in North America.

    Ken, N4SO reports working XP3A (Greenland) with FT8 on 18.1 MHz, a new one for him.

    Interesting course from WX6SWW about indices: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVgZQqUYemc[2]

    And her latest forecast: https://youtu.be/GlpdWxXUnAk[3]

    Curious about spotless days? http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless[4]

    Note that 1954 had more spotless days than last year, and it was just prior to the biggest solar cycle (Cycle 19) in recorded history.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for August 15 through 21, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 67.6, 67.5, 68, 67.5, 67.7, 67.3, and 66.8, with a mean of 67.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 4, 6, 4, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 4, 6, 6, 7, 4, 7, and 5, with a mean of 5.6.



     


    [1] http://spaceweather.com
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVgZQqUYemc
    [3] https://youtu.be/GlpdWxXUnAk
    [4] http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 30 17:52:26 2019
    08/30/2019

    Tad Cook, K7RA, in Seattle, reports: The current stretch of spotless days is now over 3 weeks, according to Spaceweather.com[1]. The continuing quiet seems eerie. For this past reporting week, Thursday through Wednesday, the average daily solar flux (10.7 GHz radiation recorded in Penticton, British Columbia, which roughly tracks with sunspot activity) was only 66. I couldn't recall when the weekly average reported in this bulletin was last that low, and couldn't find any report during the past year with such low activity.

    I did an inspection of the numbers and had to go back to the fall of 2007 to find average solar flux in that range. In 2007 we reported[2] an average of 66.5 in bulletin number 40. Can anyone else find solar flux that low or lower in past bulletins? We have them online[3] going back to 1995.

    If anyone has copies of propagation bulletins prior to 1995, I would love to see them. I began writing the bulletin in March 1991. Before that, W1HDQ (SK) was the author. I recall copying the bulletin as a teenager in 1966 on CW but have not found anyone who knows when the bulletin began.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 66 on August 30 - September 6; 67 on September 7 - 11; 68 on September 12 - 15; 67 on September 16 - October 8; 68 again on October 9 - 12, and 67 on October 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 20, 34, 16, and 8 on August 30 - September 3; 5 on September 4 - 5; 8 on September 6 - 7; 5 on September 8 - 21; 10, 15, and 8 on September 22 - 24; 5 on September 25 - 27; 35, 18, and 10 on September 28 - 30; 5 on October 1 - 2; 10 and 8 on October 3 - 4, and 5 on October 5 - 13.

    Note that the predicted planetary A index is 34 on September 1, which according to W3LPL and The ARRL Letter[4] is the 160th anniversary of the infamous Carrington Event[5].

    Spaceweather.com reported a large recurring coronal hole facing Earth and expects the effects to be felt on Sunday, September 1. A planetary A index value of 35 is predicted for the next solar rotation, on September 28.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 30 - September 26 from OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o Quiet on: September 10 - 11, 20 - 21, (25 - 26)


    o Quiet to unsettled on: August 30, September 3 - 5, 7 - 8, 13, 17, 22, 24


    o Quiet to active on: August 31, September 6, 9, 12, 14 - 16, 18 - 19, 23


    o Unsettled to active on: September 2


    o Active to disturbed: September 1


    o Solar wind will intensify on August (30) - 31, September 1 ( - 2), (4 - 6)



    [Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8]K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. Monthly charts[10] offer propagation projections between the US and a dozen DX locations.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Sunspot numbers for August 22 - 28 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7 centimeter flux was 65.7, 66.5, 66.3, 66, 65.8, 66.1, and 65.9, with a mean of 66. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 5, 4, 6, 10, and 5, with a mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 5, 5, 6, 10, and 5, with a mean of 6.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://spaceweather.com/
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP040/2007
    [3] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2019-08-29#toc03
    [5] https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.10326
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 6 20:10:43 2019
    09/06/2019

    Old Cycle 24 sunspots returned this week, but for only two days (Sunday and Monday) with a sunspot number of 12. Average daily solar flux increased from 66 reported in last week's bulletin to 67.4 this week.

    Radiation from a coronal hole increased the average planetary A index from 5.7 last week to 19.9 this week, with the level on Saturday and Sunday at 38 and 45. In Fairbanks, Alaska's College A index reached 59 and 86, and at one point on Sunday the K index was 8!

    The College K index (a component measured every 3 hours and used to calculate the daily A index) had not previously reached 8 since twice in 2018, on August 26 and two weeks later on September 11.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on September 6-13, 67 on September 14-22, 68 on September 23 through October 6, then 67 on October 7-19 and 68 on October 20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8 and 8 on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-22, 8 on September 23, 5 on September 24-25, then 10, 35, 44, 24 and 8 on September 26-30, 5 on October 1-3, 8 on October 4-5, 5 on October 6-19 and 8 on October 20.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 06-October 02, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on: September 10-11, 15-16, 20 (-21)
    Quiet to unsettled on: September 8, 13, 18-19, 22, (25)
    Quiet to active on: September (9, 12, 14, 17,) 23-24, 30
    Unsettled to active on: September (6-7, 26)
    Active to disturbed: September (27-29)

    Solar wind will intensify on: September 6, 16-18, (24-27,) 28-30. October 1-2

    -Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    -The predictability of changes is lower at present.

    Lance Collister, W7GJ, of Frenchtown, Montana wrote: "Even though ionospheric propagation (other than Es) seems a distant memory for most of us in northern latitudes, low solar activity means great conditions for 6-meter moonbounce.

    "And activity on 6-meter moonbounce has been steadily increasing due to the increased use of the very sensitive digital mode of JT65A and the rapidly expanding 6-meter arrays and amplifiers around the world.

    "If you are having trouble keeping track of all the recent activity on 6-meter moonbounce, you are not alone. This has been an amazing year for 6-meter moonbounce DXpeditions. I count 14 new DXCC entities being activated on 6-meter moonbounce this year. In addition to new DXCC opportunities such as ZL7DX and 9K2GS home stations coming on the air this year, there already have been 6-meter moonbounce DXpeditions to V84SAA, T77C, CP1GJ, and CY9C. But be sure to get things ready for even more to come! In the next few months, watch for S79GJ, HB0/S59A, A35JT, VP6R, ZK3A, A21EME, 5H3EME, VP8DBL, and others."

    Peter Greene, N2LVI, of Marlton, New Jersey noted that I mistakenly referred to the solar flux measurements at 10.7 GHz, when I should have said 10.7 cm and 2.8 GHz.

    Peter sent us a resource for historical solar flux values: ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/[1]. He noted: "On a monthly basis, the lowest average since 1947 was in May 1954 (65.36). The most recent low was July 2008 (65.67)."

    Jim, WB6BET sent similar historical data.

    K3WWP also offered data. But look at his website documenting his long devotion to CW and QRP: http://k3wwp.com[2]

    Jeff, N8II, in West Virginia sent what he called a "brief, late report": "I took part in the Kansas QSO party August 24-25. Propagation on the 24th was definitely near rock bottom. Kansas is a good distance from here for a single F2 hop about 1400-1500 miles to the western border. Starting at 2000Z signals weakened on 20 meters, and by 2100Z activity was quite low. When I returned at 2220Z the band was nearly dead, but I still managed about 6 to 8 more contacts the last with extremely weak signals. And 40-meter signals were also weak until about 2345Z, which is 15 minutes before my sunset. Despite similar SFI, Sunday was much better with good conditions on 20-meters throughout the day. Forty meters was good from 1400-1530Z.

    "The mobiles were all easy to hear and work on 20 meters and they were much busier with more callers than Saturday. Fifteen meters appeared to be completely closed to Kansas. I heard and worked KH6LC on 15-meter CW around 1700Z.

    "Despite the poor conditions, thanks to good Kansas activity, I managed to work all 105 counties, the last 19 minutes before the end at 1941Z. I also worked all 56 of the active 1x1 special KSQP calls. So, even at the cycle bottom, it is possible to have fun and do well."

     

    WX6SWW released a new video on September 5: https://youtu.be/_oYTHdtaCrY[3]

    I will be giving a talk about my history in ham radio (I was licensed at age 12, many years ago), propagation, (and they said I can talk about anything else I want) at the Western Washington DX Club in Seattle on Tuesday, September 10. See https://www.wwdxc.org/[4] for details.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for August 29 through September 4, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 12, 12, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 65.9, 66.5, 66.4, 67.1, 68.8, 68.6, and 68.6, with a mean of 67.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 10, 38, 45, 21, 10, and 12, with a mean of 19.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 10, 29, 33, 19, 11, and 11, with a mean of 16.7.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/
    [2] http://k3wwp.com
    [3] https://youtu.be/_oYTHdtaCrY
    [4] https://www.wwdxc.org/
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 13 18:28:07 2019
    09/13/2019

    No sunspots this week. Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 3.4 to zero. At the same time, average daily solar flux rose from 67.4 to 69.4.

    Geomagnetic activity quieted, with average daily planetary A index declining from 19.9 to 8.9, while average daily mid-latitude A index went from 16.7 to 7.7.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on September 13-22, 69 on September 23 through October 5, 68 on October 6-19, 69 on October 20-24, 68 on October 25 and 69 on October 26-27.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 13-22, 8 on September 23, 5 on September 24-25, then 10, 35, 45, 20 and 10 on September 26-30, then 8, 10 and 8 on October 1-3, 5 on October 4-19, 8 on October 20, 5 on October 21-22, then 8, 25, 30, 18 and 8 on October 23-27.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 13 until October 9, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: September 14-16, 20 (-21,) November 8-9
    Quiet to unsettled on: September 13, 17-19, 22, (24,) November 4-7
    Quiet to active on: September 23, 25, 30, November 1-3
    Unsettled to active on: September (26)
    Active to disturbed: September (27-29)

    Solar wind will intensify on: September 16, (24-27,) 28-30. October 1 (-4, 7-9)

    -Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    -The predictability of changes remains lower at present.

    Jon Jones, N0JK, wrote: "There was some sporadic-E skip on 6 meters September 1 from the Midwest to Mexico to W6 and W7. From Kansas, I worked XE2OR in Mexico, and several stations in Arizona and California.

    "On September 7, stations in New England worked the Gulf Coast. The Es may have been associated with active geomagnetic field conditions."

    Ken Brown, N4SO, of Grand Bay, Alabama reports on his recent FT8 contacts on 17 and 40 meters: "Seventeen meters remains stable and a very good daylight band for DX. Here is a sample of contacts on the FT8 digital mode.

    18.100 FT8  Sept. 11

    135800 -15  0.1 1795   N4SO SP9DWT RR73 (Poland)
    170830 -17  0.3 1278   N4SO 5B4ALJ RR73  (Mike in Cyprus)
    170900 -16  0.4  779   CQ AL ON5CD JO20   Belgium  (Note calling CQ for Alabama.
    171130 -11  0.4  779   N4SO ON5CD RR73  
    171700 -16  0.2 1676   CQ MM0CEZ IO75     Scotland

    "Forty meters remains an excellent band for DX contacts during the night with a world-wide range of countries on the FT8 digital mode:

    7.074 FT8  Sept. 9

    131415  -1  0.5 1705   CQ KH2L QK23       Guam
    132945  -9  0.1 2340   N4SO KH2L R-23
    133000  Tx      2378   KH2L N4SO RR73"

    Mike, K6THZ, in Santa Clara, California reports unexpected propagation on 15 meters via FT8 late at night, including a QSO with Norway.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email me at k7ra@arrl.net[1].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for September 5 through 11, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.3, 68.9, 73.9, 67.5, 68.8, 70, and 68.1, with a mean of 69.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 8, 7, 10, 14, 4, and 5, with a mean of 8.9. Middle latitude A index was 11, 9, 6, 9, 11, 4, and 4, with a mean of 7.7.

     


    [1] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 20 18:49:50 2019
    09/20/2019

    No sunspots this week, and as of Wednesday we've seen 15 spotless days in a row. This is the solar minimum. The current Solar Cycle (24) is expected to end by the end of this calendar year.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 69.4 to 68.1. Average daily planetary A index declined slightly from 8.9 to 8.3, but average daily mid-latitude A index rose from 7.7 to 8.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on September 20-26, 69 on September 27 through October 6, 70 on October 7, 68 on October 8-19, 69 on October 20 through November 2 and 70 on October 3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 20-21, 8 on September 22-23, 5 on September 24-25, then 10, 35, 45, 20 and 10 on September 26-30, then 8, 10 and 8 on October 1-3, then 5, 5 and 12 on October 4-6, 5 on October 7-9, then 8, 5 and 8 on October 10-12, then 5, 8 and 10 on October 13-15, 5 on October 16-19, then 8, 5 and 5 on October 20-22, then 8, 25, 30, and 18 on October 23-26, then 8, 5 and 8 on October 27-29, 5 on October 30 through November 1, 12 on November 2 and 5 on November 3.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 20 until October 14, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: September 20 (-21,) October 7-8
    Quiet to unsettled on: September 22, (24,) October 4-6, 9-10
    Quiet to active on: September 23, 25, 30, October 1-3, 11
    Unsettled to active on: September (26), October (12-14)
    Active to disturbed: September (27-29)

    Solar wind will intensify on: September (24-27,) 28-30.
    October 1 (-4, 7-9,) 11 (-14)

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The predictability of changes remains lower.

    Another explanation for heliophysics. Thanks to W4NI: https://bit.ly/2kVU7s5[1]

    Jon Jones, N0JK, in Kansas sent this: "Six-meter Es made an appearance in the ARRL September VHF Contest Saturday evening (September 15 UTC). Starting around 0030z, stations in Arizona, California, Nevada and Utah appeared and worked stations in the Midwest states. I even saw a few double hop sporadic-E contacts between Michigan to Nevada, and California to Alabama. I made about a dozen FT8 6-meter contacts running 10 W and a 2-element Yagi antenna in the single operator portable category in the opening. My best DX was NA6L (DM03) in southern California.
    "Sporadic-E propagation is rare in September, and it was a special treat to have an Es opening during the VHF Contest."

    Another 6 meter report, from KD7WPJ in Mountain House, California, which is between Tracy and Livermore: "During ARRL September VHF Contest I made 50 MHz FT8 contact with VE7DAY on September 16 at 0242 UTC. I used only 10 W with a simple dipole antenna. The distance is approximately 844 miles.

    It kind of late for Es season, and the propagation mechanism is undetermined."

    Ken, N4SO, in Alabama sent this regarding signals copied on September 13: http://www.astrosurf.com/luxorion/qsl-propa5.htm[2]. "This web site on Grey Line propagation explains why on many days on 18.100 MHZ, FT8 mode, Japan, Australia or Fiji are decoded.  This example is starting at 2236 UTC and lasts for an hour or more.  This shows JQ1TIV easily worked at 2330 UTC.  (Power levels were at about 15 W to a Half Square antenna.)

    "Late afternoon hours at around 5 PM/2200 UTC start time, usually 2 hours before local sunset.

    223630 -17  0.2  938  CQ VK2IZ QG60         Australia
    223600  -7  0.1  259  CQ 3D2AG RH91         Fiji
    233000 -11  0.1 2439  N4SO JQ1TIV RR73   Japan
    233015  Tx      2432  JQ1TIV N4SO 73
    233415   8  0.1  845  HK0RMR EK92     San Andres & Providencia"

    KC9WIR cc'd a message he sent to VK3CRG on September 14: "At 0810 UTC it was 3:10 AM in Chicago (CDT). I was sleeping, but my radio was in receive-only mode on the WSPR frequency on 40 meters and my PC was decoding WSPR signals. This morning I looked what I harvested during the night and there was your signal clocked at 0812 UTC. That's nice, given that you only used 5 W! You were -20 dB in Chicago. Conditions were poor; the maximum distances of most other logged stations were between 400- and 2000-miles during nighttime. It's puzzling how your QRP signal made it here."

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[3].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for September 12 through 18, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.4, 68.3, 68.6, 67.7, 68.7, 67.5, and 66.3, with a mean of 68.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 6, 8, 11, 9, and 9, with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 7, 8, 7, 8, 10, 8, and 8, with a mean of 8.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2kVU7s5
    [2] http://www.astrosurf.com/luxorion/qsl-propa5.htm
    [3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From Zombie Mambo@VERT/ZZONE to ARRL de WD1CKS on Fri Sep 20 18:35:50 2019
    Re: The K7RA Solar Update
    By: ARRL de WD1CKS to QST on Fri Sep 20 2019 02:49 pm

    No sunspots this week, and as of Wednesday we've seen 15 spotless days in a row. This is the solar minimum. The current Solar Cycle (24) is expected to by the end of this calendar year.

    Wait, so global warming is fake?


    Thanks,
    Zombie Mambo

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ +-=[ The Zombie Zone BBS * hcow.dynu.net:61912 ]=-+
  • From echto@VERT/ECHTOBBS to Zombie Mambo on Fri Sep 20 22:06:10 2019
    Re: The K7RA Solar Update
    By: Zombie Mambo to ARRL de WD1CKS on Fri Sep 20 2019 02:35 pm

    Re: The K7RA Solar Update
    By: ARRL de WD1CKS to QST on Fri Sep 20 2019 02:49 pm

    No sunspots this week, and as of Wednesday we've seen 15
    spotless days in a row. This is the solar minimum. The
    current
    Solar Cycle (24) is expected to by the end of this calendar
    year.

    Wait, so global warming is fake?


    yep. The climate has been cycling for millions of years. Throw in a millenial or two and suddenly there is a narrow minded problem.

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Pure Threadripper. --==={bbs.echto.net}===--
  • From HusTler@VERT/HAVENS to zambi mambo on Sat Sep 21 12:24:55 2019
    Re: The K7RA Solar Update
    By: echto to Zombie Mambo on Fri Sep 20 2019 06:06 pm

    Wait, so global warming is fake?


    Yes it is.

    yep. The climate has been cycling for millions of years. Throw in a millenial or two and suddenly there is a narrow minded problem.


    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Havens BBS havens.synchro.net
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 27 18:05:39 2019
    09/27/2019

    Sorry, still no sunspots. Spaceweather.com reported on September 26 there were no sunspots for over 3 weeks, or 24 consecutive days.

    Summer transitioned through the autumnal equinox last Monday, and spaceweather.com[1] noted that during the northern summer more than 89% of the days were spotless.

    So far in 2019 the spotless days percentage is 72%, equal to what it was in the last solar minimum, in 2008 and 2009.

    Passing the equinox is a good time for HF propagation, even with low solar activity, and this is true whether you are now in spring in the Southern Hemisphere or fall in the northern.

    Over the past week (September 19-25) average daily solar flux shifted marginally from 68.1 to 67.3, while average daily planetary A index reflected quiet geomagnetic indices changing from 8.3 to 5.4 and mid-latitude indices went from 8 to 4.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 67 on September 27 to October 4, and 68 on October 5 through November 10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 28, 45, and 20 on September 27-29, 12 on September 30 and October 1, 8 on October 2-3, 5 on October 4-5, 12 on October 6, 5 on October 7-9, then 8, 5, 8, 10, 8 and 8 on October 10-15, then 5 on October 16-19, then 12 and 8 on October 20-21, 5 on October 22-24, then 25, 18, 10, 5 and 8 on October 25-29, then 5 on October 30 through November 1, 10 on November 2, 5 on November 3-5, then 8, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on November 6-10.

    The planetary A index forecast of 28, 45 and 20 on September 27-29 is due to solar wind spewing from a large coronal hole. This is the same hole that gave us the planetary A index of 38 and 45 on August 31 and September 1. Look for it again on October 25-26 after yet another trip around the Sun.

     

    Spaceweather.com reported in an email on September 26: GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: A large hole in the Sun's atmosphere is facing Earth and spewing a stream of solar wind in our direction. NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of moderately-strong G2-class geomagnetic storms when the gaseous material arrives on Sept. 28th. The last such storm in early September produced auroras visible in many northern-tier US states. Visit today's edition of Spaceweather.com for more information and forecasts.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 27 until October 22, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: October 8, 16-17
    Quiet to unsettled on: October 3-4, 7, 9, 20
    Quiet to active on: October 1-2, 6, 10-11, 15, 18-19, 22
    Unsettled to active on: September 30, October (5, 12-14,) 21
    Active to disturbed: September 27-28, (29)

    Solar wind will intensify on: September 27-30, October 1 (-4, 7-9,) 11 (-14,) 21-23

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The predictability of changes remains lower.

    Thanks to this week's ARRL Letter for these two references to a 1921 disturbance I had never heard of, rivaling the infamous Carrington Event of 1859: https://bit.ly/2lyoDZB[2] and https://bit.ly/2lvwpDo[3]

    Bil Paul, KDJUI, who operates ham radio from a kayak (detailed in November 2016 QST) reported on September 26: "I was operating from kayak today (Thursday) running 10 W into an end-fed half-wave wire vertical antenna alongside the boat in Lake Solano near Winters, CA. I was surprised to contact two French CW stations on 20 meters around noon Pacific Time (1900 UTC). They gave me signal reports of 5/3 and 5/5. I gave them S6 and S7 reports. There was a little fading.

    "I did hear one station on 17 meters (CW), but no luck there. No luck either on 30 meters. Good fishing, though!"

     

    N4SO in Alabama reports FT8 contacts on 40 and 17 meters on September 22-24: "Conditions have been favorable on 40 meters for making contacts with FT8 mode to Australia and New Zealand every night after midnight. Here are decoding examples from September 24 between 1 and 4 AM local time:

    065715 -13  0.2 1281 -  CQ ZL4DC RE54      New Zealand
    071915 -14  0.5 1692 -  CQ VK2FAD QF56     Australia
    080800 -19  0.4  860 -  CQ VK7NET QE38     Australia
    094830 -17  0.4  599 -  CQ SA VK6IR OF77   Australia

    "Australia is also available with FT8 on 17 meters in the early evening hours before sunset. This one is even earlier at 4:40 PM Central Time.

    214245 -12 -0.1 1776 -  N4SO VK2DX 73"

    Here is the latest video from WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/rScJxk44OZE[4]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for September 19 through 25, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 67.1, 67.2, 67.7, 68.3, 66.1, 67.1, and 67.5, with a mean of 67.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 7, 4, 3, 13, and 4, with a mean of 5.4. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 7, 2, 2, 11, and 3, with a mean of 4.6.

     


    [1] http://spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/2lyoDZB
    [3] https://bit.ly/2lvwpDo
    [4] https://youtu.be/rScJxk44OZE
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 4 21:23:53 2019
    10/04/2019

    A new sunspot from old Cycle 24 appeared on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, then by Thursday was gone.

    The sunspot number was 11 on both days, the minimum non-zero sunspot number.

    Average daily solar flux rose only slightly from 67.3 to 67.6. Geomagnetic indices were higher. Average planetary A index rose from 5.4 to 14.4, and average mid-latitude A index increased from 4.6 to 11.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 68 on every day, October 4 through November 17.

    Over the same period predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 4-5, 5 on October 6-7, then 8, 10, 5, 5, 8 and 12 on October 8-13, 8 on October 14-15, 5 on October 16-20, then 12, 5 and 5 on October 21-23, then 18, 25, 12 and 10 on October 24-27, then 8, 8 and 12 on October 28-30, and again 8, 8 and 12 on October 31 through November 2, then 5 on November 3-5, then 8, 5, 8, 10, 8 and 8 on November 6-11, 5 on November 12-16 and 12 on November 17.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 04-October 29, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: October 8, 16-17, 29
    Quiet to unsettled on: October 4-5, 7, 9, 20, 23
    Quiet to active on: October 6, 10-11, 15, 18-19, 22, 27-28
    Unsettled to active on: October (12-14,) 21, 26
    Active to disturbed: October 24-25

    Solar wind will intensify on: September 27-30, October 1 (-4,
    7-9,) 11 (-14,) 21-26

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    The predictability of changes remains lower

    On October 2, Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, of Easton, Pennsylvania wrote: "To my surprise, due to its rarity, double-hop Sporadic-e was active on the 11-meter Citizens Band yesterday afternoon, Tuesday, October 1 from 12 noon to 2 pm eastern local time.

    "Eight days past the autumnal equinox, and the unexpected happens inside the northern wedge of the Bermuda Triangle, which is the mid-point path over the Sargasso Sea in the western Atlantic Ocean. It (Es) turned on like a switch with no warning.

    "The Es was being funneled in from Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic in the northern Caribbean Sea. Dominican Republic is 1,567 air miles and Puerto Rico is 1,629 air miles from my location. The typical maximum single-hop Es range is 1,400 miles. Both exceeded this limit; thus, this was a double-hop event that occurred.

    "At 12:30 pm, readable with practically no difficulty (4), strength at good signals (6). Backscatter was heard from Pennsylvania and New York states calling stations at 1:19 pm."

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, writes: "After spending far too long with a spotless Sun, our favorite star finally brings some bright regions back into Earth-view. The emergence of several of these, including one that has officially been designated a sunspot (region 2749), has brought some much-needed smiles to many in this community-- including me. Already we have had about 200 days without any sunspots this year, which is about as deep as solar minimum gets. Is anyone as ready as I am for a change?

    "As for the forecast this week, we are expecting some fast solar wind to hit over the next few days as a southern coronal hole rotates through the Earth-strike zone. This could bring aurora to high latitudes, possibly through the weekend, but aurora photographers at mid-latitudes should expect shows to be sporadic and elusive. As for emergency and amateur radio, this storm might boost radio propagation a bit, especially on Earth's night side. Improved trans-equatorial propagation might also occur near the gray line (which means there might be some good radio contacts between the northern and southern hemisphere during the dawn and dusk hours) as these conditions will likely be enhanced by the weak solar storm.

    "Of course, the increased solar activity this week may fizzle as fast as it started. It's way too early to wish for big solar flares from a yet-to-be-seen Solar Cycle 25. But the return of bright regions on Earth's dayside is a nice gift. If nothing else, they make for a colorful backdrop while we wait for the weather to change."

     

    Here is her latest video: https://youtu.be/j930BODV_bg[1]

    An update from SpaceRef: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=52897[2]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[3].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for September 26 through October 2, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, and 11, with a mean of 3.1. 10.7 cm flux was 67.1, 66.4, 67.3, 67.4, 67.9, 68.7, and 68.3, with a mean of 67.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 21, 27, 13, 15, 13, and 8, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 15, 21, 10, 11, 11, and 7, with a mean of 11.

     

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/j930BODV_bg
    [2] http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=52897
    [3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 11 19:43:22 2019
    10/11/2019

    No sunspots appeared over the past week, and in the prior week there were only two days with sunspots, so average daily sunspot number declined from 3.1 to 0.

    Average daily solar flux nudged higher, but just barely, from 67.6 to 67.8.

    Geomagnetic indicators were much lower this week, with average daily planetary A index retreating from 14.4 to 6.3, while the mid-latitude average went from 11 to 5.3.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 68. That's correct, on every day for the next month and a half, October 11 through November 24 the solar flux is forecast to be 68. This is in line with recent conditions.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 11-12, 8 on October 13-14, 5 on October 15-20, then 12, 5 and 5 on October 21-23, then 18, 25, 12, 10 and 8 on October 24-28, then 5 on October 29 through November 3, 8 on November 4-5, 5 on November 6-8, then 8 on November 9-10, 5 on November 11-16, then 12, 5 and 5 on November 17-19, then 18, 25, 18, 10 and 8 on November 20-24.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 11-November 5, 2019.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on: October 16-17, 29-30
    Quiet to unsettled on: October 15, 18-20, 22-23, November 1
    Quiet to active on: October 11-14, 27-28, 31, November (2-5)
    Unsettled to active on: October 21, 26
    Active to disturbed: October 24-25

    Solar wind will intensify on: October 11 (-14,) 21-26

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    Even more news on huge solar blasts in the past: https://bit.ly/2Mw7LMe[1]

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, of Easton, Pennsylvania reported: "Yesterday, Friday, October 4, the same 11 meter band double-hop Es event (reported last week) repeated itself.

    "This time it started later during the day, sometime prior to 4:45 PM and vaporized at 6:10 PM ET. From 5:14 PM onward, local (within 10 miles) 11-meter operators were heard mixing with the Puerto Rican DX.

    "The signal strength was fairly-good, at times slow short duration fading with slight distortion due to multipath propagation.

    "Other signal reports included:

    ¿ 2136 UTC WP4O FK68ke 28.075.7 DIGI AB1HL FN42kj 2717 km

    ¿ 2142 UTC WP4O FK68ke 28.075.7 DIGI W1ZQ FN42fu 2773 km

    ¿ 2151 UTC W1NT FN42lu 28.025.0 CW HK1MW FK20lt 3582 km CW

    ¿ WP4O Bayamon, PR - AB1HL Cambridge, MA, 1688 miles

    ¿ WP4O Bayamon, PR - W1ZQ Amherst, NH, 1723 miles

    ¿ W1NT Newton, NH - HK1MW Barranquilla, Colombia, 2225 miles

    "On Wednesday, October 9, the 11-meter band opened with double-hop Es down to the northern Caribbean Sea, from Cuba over to Puerto Rico.

    "It started at 4:40 PM ET (2040 UTC) and vaporized at 6:04 pm (2204 UTC), twenty-eight minutes prior to local sunset.

    Signal strength ranged from Faint (1) to Fair (5)."

    Ken, N4SO, of Alabama sends us his 17-meter notes: "I was on 18.100 MHz using FT8 on October 7. The band opens near sunrise each day, with a variety of European stations, including Ukraine and Oman. Wales appeared first today. When the band opened, there are no US or South American stations, but they appeared about two hours later.

    "There are very few Maritime Mobile stations on FT8. However, Vladimir,
     UW5EJX/MM, was operating from a tanker and we made contact at 1846 UTC.

    184645 -13  0.3 2649 ~  CQ UW5EJX/MM

    "Using 15 W to my half-square antenna, I also managed to pick up...

    120630 -15  0.1 1047 ~  CQ DX GW0PLP IO72  Wales
    133430   2  1.5 1713 ~  N4SO OM3SEM 73  (Slovak Rep.)
    135700  -1  0.1 1606 ~  <N4SO> HB9SPACE RR73  (Switzerland)
    141530  -9  0.4 1551 ~  N4SO EA4HBK RR73 (Spain)
    140730 -17  0.3 1737 ~  CQ E75C JN93       Bosnia-Herzegovina
    143700 -11  0.1 2378 ~  N4SO EB3JT JN01  (Spain)"

    Martin McCormick, WB5AGZ, wrote: "I believe there is a way to tell if the propagation one is hearing is Sporadic E or F2.

    "When Sporadic E occurs, the path goes from the transmitter to a patch of sky in which the E layer is ionized to form a reflective surface like a mirror which bounces it back to Earth somewhere else. It is a simple path and the resulting echo fades up and down in strength but there is no selective fading to give that characteristic shortwave sound, as if somebody was continually twisting the tone controls. The signal just gets stronger and weaker.

    "F2 reception is more complex because there is more than one F layer. Since radio signals are nothing more than a different color of light, they travel at the speed of light with nulls and nodes that enhance or nullify the carrier on any given frequency from second to second. This is what can briefly make an AM signal sound like sideband and, if you switch to sideband mode, you may hear a tinny-sounding restoration of the AM audio because the null of the carrier only kills the carrier, not the side bands.

    "The effect is much like sweeping a RF notch filter across an AM signal because that is what the physics of the multiple reflective layers which may be many miles apart are doing to the signal."

    Here is the latest video from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/Vs5vWvyvgGE[2]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[3].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for October 3 through 9, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.1. 10.7 cm flux was 68.2, 68.1, 67.8, 67.4, 67.7, 67.1, and 68.1, with a mean of 67.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 7, 7, 5, 6, 5, and 9, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 6, 6, 5, 4, 4, and 7, with a mean of 11.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2Mw7LMe
    [2] https://youtu.be/Vs5vWvyvgGE
    [3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 18 18:01:43 2019
    10/18/2019

    Solar activity remains very low. At the bottom of the sunspot cycle, any sunspot activity is fleeting. Again, another week passes with no sunspots at all. Spaceweather.com reports no sunspots for the past two weeks, and the total number of spotless days this year is now 213 days, or 73%, matching the percentage of spotless days in 2008.

    Average daily solar flux during the week of October 10-16 was 67.3, down insignificantly from 67.6 during the previous week.

    Average daily planetary A index was 6.4, down from 14.4 in the previous week, and average daily mid-latitude A index declined from 11 to 5.1.

    The predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 66 on October 18-25, then 68 on October 26 through December 1.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 18-20, then 12, 8, 5, 20, 25, 12, 10 and 8 on October 21-28, then 5 on October 29 to November 9, then 8 on November 10-11, then 5 on November 12-16, 15 on November 17, 5 on November 18-19, then 15, 20, 10 and 8 on November 20-23, and 5 on November 24-30.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 18 until November 12, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on: October 29-30, November 8-9, 11-12
    Quiet to unsettled on: October 18-20, 22-23, November 4-5, 7, 10
    Quiet to active on: October 28, 31, November 2-3
    Unsettled to active on: October 21, 27, November 1, 6
    Active to disturbed: October (24-) 25 (-26)

    Solar wind will intensify on: October 11 (-14, 21-23. 25), 26, November 7-9

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    The predictability of changes remains lower again.

    Rick Tucker, W0RT, of Parsons, Kansas was listening for HZ1TT (Saudi Arabia) on October 14 on 21.023 MHz at 1045 UTC. The band sounded dead, but at 1115 UTC he copied 8 or 10 European stations calling and working the Saudi station. Rick said he never heard HZ1TT, but HZ1TT was spotted by a VE9.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[1].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[4]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[5].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[6].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7].

    Sunspot numbers for October 10 through 16, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 67.5, 68.5, 68.3, 67.2, 66.2, 67.2, and 66.3, with a mean of 67.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 8, 5, 2, 6, 5, and 6, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 10, 6, 4, 1, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 5.1.

     


    [1] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 25 16:29:20 2019
    10/25/2019

    Over the past week, on Monday, October 21, 10.7 cm solar flux sunk to possibly the lowest level in recorded history. Solar flux was 64, which is even lower than the 64.4 value recorded way back on July 2, 1954 at the start of solar cycle 19, by far the biggest solar cycle ever recorded. I understand that solar flux dipped to 64.2 in 1906.

    The average solar flux this past week was lower than the perhaps all-time lowest weekly average reported in this bulletin (66) back in ARLP035 in August: http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP035/2019[1]

    Over the recent reporting week, October 17-23, average daily solar flux was 65.3, two points lower than last week.  Average daily planetary A index dropped from 6.4 to 4.7, while average daily mid-latitude A index declined from 5.1 to 3.1. And of course, there were no sunspots.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 65 on October 25 through November 1, and 66 on November 2 through December 8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 30 and 18 on October 25-26, 15 on October 27-28, 8 on October 29, 5 on October 30 through November 16, then 15, 8 and 5 on November 17-19, then 20 and 24 on November 20-21, 15 on November 22-23, then 12 and 8 on November 24-25, and 5 on November 26 through December 8.

    But even with such record low solar activity, HF propagation still exists, occasionally to a surprising degree. Recently it seems as if most of the HF propagation reports I receive involve the FT8 mode, which has a remarkable ability to dredge up signals from what sound like noise to our ears.

    But I received a second-hand report from W7WA and K7CW who attended a ham club meeting a few days ago in Mason County, Washington where WA4ELK reported working Lithuania and Belarus on 10-meter SSB at 0900 UTC October 22 using low power and a bazooka antenna.

    Certainly, an odd opening at an odd time of the day and I hope to track down more details.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 25-November 19, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on October 30, November 8-9, 12-14, 18-19
    Quiet to unsettled on November 4-7, 10-11, 15-17
    Quiet to active on October 28-29, 31, November 2-3
    Unsettled to active on November 1

    Active to disturbed October 25 (-27)

    Solar wind will intensify on October 25-26, November (7-9,) 13, 21-23

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Jon Jones, N0JK, reported from Kansas, an E-skip and trans-equatorial opening October 17-18 on 6 meters from North America to South America. "I didn't hear or work any South America. I worked on 6-meter Es NZ3M (FN10), N3BBI (FN20, W5PUF (rare DL99) and XE2JS (DL78). CX9AU spotted KF0M EM17 around 0030z on October 18.

    "Today, October 24, strong solar wind from a coronal hole arrived in the afternoon causing aurora in Alaska. The Kp went to 4 and 10 Meters opened. The 5K0K DXpedition was loud on 28.430 MHz SSB into the Midwest and logged at 2043z. Twelve meters was also good, with ZD8SC 59 plus on 24.437 MHz, which I worked at 2039z. I was 'fixed mobile' with 100 watts and a 1/4 wavelength vertical antenna on each band. So far no enhanced conditions on 6 meters."

     

    Ken Brown, N4SO, reports from Alabama: "On October 20 I decoded a surprising number of stations in European Russia, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Slovak Republic on 17-meter FT8. Here is just a partial listing. The time is around 1400 UTC.

    134715 -18  0.1 1633  CQ LY2GV KO15      Lithuania
    140045 -18  0.4 2025  CQ YL2IP KO27        Latvia
    140230  -4  0.5 1900  W1FNJ UX1IW KN87    (Serge, Donetsk, Ukraine)
    140230 -15  0.4 2270  CQ NA RN3OG KO91   EU Russia
    140230  -7  0.4 1605  CQ DX RA1AOB KO59  EU Russia
    140545  -7  2.0  320  CQ NA UT7HA KN69   Ukraine
    140615  -7  0.5  428  CQ OM2GM JN87      Slovak Rep.
    140615  -6  0.3 1354  CQ DX UA6BRD LN05  EU Russia

    "For Maritime Mobile on merchant ships, here is one more from Francois F5MYK/MM, contacted on 7.074 MHZ FT8, October 19.  F5MYK info is on QRZ.com.

    "How late does 18.100 MHZ FT8 stay open? I have decoded Hawaii KH6AQ at 0357 UTC working RZ9O.

    22 October 035715 -18  0.2 1831 ~ RZ9O KH6AQ R-18

    The usual closing for 18.100 MHZ is around 0100 UTC."

     

    Here is a report from Danny, KB8W: "There was a nice Es and TEP opening on 6 meters Thursday evening. At about 0030Z on October 18 I checked 6-meter activity on the DXMaps website and was surprised to see lots of contacts indicated in the central and southeastern parts of the US. They were mostly 800 to 1000 miles long and appeared to be Es. There were also some longer contacts from the southeastern US to northern South America that looked like TEP. The site showed that most stations were using FT8 on 50.313 MHz.

    "As I monitored the band, I started hearing stations (I live in EN57, in Michigan's Upper Peninsula). Over the next hour I worked four stations in Texas and Oklahoma:

    0039Z K5GKC -13 -11 50313 50W FT8 EM13
    0047Z W5PUF -9 -12 50313 50W FT8 DL99
    0101Z KC5WX +8 -10 50313 50W FT8 EM13
    0111Z WB5GVY -12 -14 50313 50W FT8 EM10

    "For the next hour I heard WB5GVY working other stations and calling CQ, but I did not hear any other activity after 0115Z. The DXMaps website showed some activity that slowly faded away while the center of the activity moved west across the US. I stopped listening and went to bed at about 0400Z.

    "I have been fairly active on 6 meters for the past 10 years, doing meteor scatter in the early morning hours, and then other modes later in the day. Sporadic E is very common during the summer months here in the far north central section of the US, it usually starts in early May and ends in late August. This year I had a short Es opening to Colorado and Arizona during the ARRL September VHF contest in mid-September. That was the first time in 10 years that I saw any Es activity in September. I have a very modest station on 6 meters - 100W to a homebrew 5 element Yagi antenna at about 13 feet up."


    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[2].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for October 17 through 23, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 66.1, 66.1, 66, 65, 64, 65.6, and 64.5, with a mean of 65.3. Estimated planetary a indices were 6, 6, 5, 6, 5, 3, and 2, with a mean of 4.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2, and 1, with a mean of 3.1.


    [1] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP035/2019
    [2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 8 16:57:23 2019
    11/08/2019

    Two new sunspot groups appeared this week, on two consecutive days, each lasting for only a day, with a daily sunspot number of 11 and 13 on Friday and Saturday of last week, just in time for ARRL CW Sweepstakes. Both sunspot groups had a magnetic polarity signature indicating Solar Cycle 25 and appeared after 4 weeks of no sunspots.

    Spaceweather.com reported both appearances as region AR2750, yet NOAA reported a new sunspot group on each day, shown as a one in the New Regions column: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt[1]

    Perhaps that is true, and the new appearances on each day were both counted as part of AR2750.

    Solar flux was higher over the past reporting week (Thursday through Wednesday, October 31 through November 6) with average daily solar flux rising from 68.5 to 70.4.

    Average solar flux as reported in this bulletin hasn't been as high since ARLP020, back in May, when it was 75.7: http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP020/2019[2]. Note there were sunspots during that week also.

    Geomagnetic indicators were low this week, with average daily planetary A index declining from 16.4 to 4.1, and average mid-latitude A index softening from 13 to 2.7.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on November 8, 68 on November 9-15, 67 on November 16-19, 68 and 70 on November 20-21, 71 on November 22-30, 70 on December 1-6, 69 on December 7-19, and 70 on December 20-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 8-9, then 10, 12 and 8 on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-19, then 15, 25, 18, 12 and 10 on November 20-24, 8 on November 25-26, 5 on November 27 through December 16, then 15, 20, and 18, on December 17-19, 12 on December 20-21 and 5 on December 22.

    At ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[3] NOAA reported a solar flux forecast of 96 for December 16-18 in their predictions on their November 1-5 forecasts, but when I asked about this they told me that the US Air Force had transposed digits from 69 to 96. By the November 6 forecast, this was all corrected. Drat! I was hoping for those higher numbers. My contact at NOAA told me he wished the flux would be 96, or even better, 196!

    Even during days with no sunspots, there was notable HF propagation recently, with the Pitcairn Island expedition making HF contacts across the Americas, even on 10 meters.


    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 8 until December 3, 2019.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on: November 13, 18-19, 29-30, December 1
    quiet to unsettled on: November  8-9, 11, 15, 27-28
    quiet to active on: November 10, 12, 14, 16-17, 25-26, December 2-3
    unsettled to active on: November 20, 24
    active to disturbed: November 21-23

    Solar wind will intensify on November (8-9,) 13, 21-26, (27-29)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Stevie, MI0GTA, commented from Ireland on November 4 about working DX, even with low solar activity. "I thought you might like to know I worked 15 new DXCC countries on 15 meters during the CQWW CW DX Contest, Chile, India, South Africa, Afghanistan were some of the best I worked.

    "I use an M0PLK delta loop antenna at 11 meters above ground with 350 W from my old Yaesu FL2100Z amp. The rig is an Icom Pro-III. Even today I worked WQ7X in Phoenix, Arizona." Check out Stevie's QRZ.com page for details on his collection of ham radio related maps.

    David Moore sent this, on an overlooked piece of the solar dynamo puzzle, a particular form of magnetic instability: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/10/191028104142.htm[4]

    Here is the latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/Rm520CkqoLM[5]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for October 31 through November 6, 2019 were 0, 11, 13, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 71.2, 70.7, 70.7, 69.4, 70.8, 70.4, and 69.3, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5, with a mean of 4.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 2, 1, 1, 4, 2, and 4, with a mean of 2.7.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP020/2019
    [3] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [4] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/10/191028104142.htm
    [5] https://youtu.be/Rm520CkqoLM
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 15 20:17:27 2019
    11/15/2019

    Even with little to no solar activity, it is amazing how many long-distance HF contacts are possible, even without using weak signal modes such as FT8.

    Recent DXpeditions, such as the ones on Pitcairn Island and Marquesas, had little trouble piling up the contacts, even on ten meters. It helps that we are in the fall season.

    No sunspots over the past week, and average daily solar flux was about the same as last week's report, 70.3 compared to 70.4. Geomagnetic indices were still quiet, with average daily planetary A index at 4 (last week was 4.1) and middle latitude A index at 3 (compared to 2.7).

    Predicted solar flux is 71 on November 15 to December 3, 70 on December 4-18, and 71 on December 19-29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 8 on November 15-17, 5 on November 18-19, then 18, 25, 18, 12 and 10 on November 20-24, 8 on November 25-26, 5 on November 27 through December 16, then 15, 25, 18, 12 and 10 on December 17-21, 8 on December 22-23, and 5 on December 24-29.

    This forecast is the same as the one appearing on Thursday in the ARRL Letter. Check daily updates at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[1]. These are updated daily after 2100 UTC, most recently between 2110-2151 UTC.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 15-December 10, 2019 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: November 18-19, 29-30, December 1
    Quiet to unsettled on: November 15, 27-28, December 4-10
    Quiet to active on: November 16 (-17, 25-26), December 2-3
    Unsettled to active on: November 20, 24
    Active to disturbed: November 21-23

    Solar wind will intensify on: November 21-26, (27-29)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI, is still operating regularly from his kayak in Northern California. QST published an article about his boat and antenna in the November 2016 issue. "I was again operating from a kayak (November 9, Saturday), this time from Lake Berryessa in northern California. The first contact I had (17-meter CW at noon Pacific time) was with "Moz" VK3CWB in Australia. I was, as before, running 10 W into a 34-foot end-fed half-wave wire vertical set up in a fallen-over tree at the edge of the lake. Although at first, he had trouble copying my call sign, he did give me a 539 report.

    "What amazed me was that directly behind me was a hill that I thought would cut my signal in his direction. Perhaps my signal was bouncing off the hills on the other side of the lake.

    "One of my reasons for writing in is to show that QRP signals even in this time of low solar activity can get through overseas, especially if one is operating from a watery location.

    "I go out in the kayak around once a week and operate. The antenna is loadable on 17, 20 and 30 meters. There was plenty of activity on all those bands yesterday, but I only had contacts on 17 and 30. My buddy caught his first trout on his end of things. A good day all around.

    "I get a very good QSL-card return from foreign stations when I send them my kayak QSL card."

    KA3JAW reported an 11-meter sporadic-E opening on the evening of November 13. Local sunset was 4:44 PM and the opening began 2 hours and 31 minutes later and ended 4 hours and 16 minutes after sunset. He is in Easton, Pennsylvania and heard transmissions from Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia.

    ARRL Phone Sweepstakes is this weekend. See http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes[2]

    Here is an interesting page from NASA showing how solar rotation varies according to latitude: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/solar-rotation.html[3]. Thanks to N2IC and N0AX via ARRL Contest Update.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for November 7 through 13, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.8, 70.2, 69.6, 70.8, 69.5, 70.8, and 71.1, with a mean of 70.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 4, 3, 7, 4, and 2, with a mean of 4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 3, 2, 7, 3, and 1, with a mean of 3.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes
    [3] https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/solar-rotation.html
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 22 22:37:04 2019
    11/22/2019

    We have not seen any sunspots since November 2, and at that time they were only visible for two days, and prior to that no sunspots since October 2.

    According to Spaceweather.com, that recent sunspot, though very short lived, was a new Cycle 25 spot: https://bit.ly/2KJ7cyy[1]

    The average daily solar flux this week dipped slightly from 70.3 to 69.9. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet, with average daily planetary A index receding marginally from 4 to 3.6, and average mid-latitude A index going from 3 to 2.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on November 22-23, 68 on November 24 then 67 on November 25-28, 69 on November 29 through December 8, 70 on December 9-22, and then 69 on December 23 through January 4 and 70 on January 5.

    Predicted planetary A index is 16, 10 and 8 on November 22-24, 5 on November 25 through December 12, 6 on December 13, 5 on December 14-15, then 8, 15, 20, 18 and 10 on December 16-20, 8 on December 21-23, and 5 on December 24 to January 4.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 22 until December 17, 2019 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on: November 29-30, December 1, 10-16
    Quiet to unsettled on: November 27-28, December 2, 7-9, 17
    Quiet to active on: November (25-26,) December 3-6
    Unsettled to active on: November 23 (-24)
    Active to disturbed: November (22)

    Solar wind will intensify on: November 22-24, (25-26) December (3-9, 13-14,) 16-17

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Fred, ND4DX shared the following: "Your comment about how amazing long distant contacts are still possible with present conditions brought back memories of the VP6DX expedition to Ducie Island 11 years ago during another solar minimum. I was able to work them SSB on all phone bands, 80-10 meters, with 100 W mobile using with Hustler/Hamstick antennas. I'll bet if I looked through the log at other solar minimums, I'd see similar results. So, I think all this worry folks have over the solar minimum is unfounded. Yes, sunspots make it easier, but now it is even more challenging and interesting with pretty much the same results. I've found that to be true using just 100 W and my 43-foot vertical antenna."

    David P. Moore sent two articles on solar physics: https://bit.ly/2KL6sJk[2] and https://bit.ly/2XzVBqS[3]

    Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, gives us a timely forecast video : https://youtu.be/WrIsipdOfF0[4]

    Here is an interesting resource from Japan, showing daily sunspot data beginning in 1929: https://solarwww.mtk.nao.ac.jp/en/db_sunspot.html[5]

     

    Don't forget that this weekend is the CW portion of the CQ Worldwide DX Contest: https://www.cqww.com/[6]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[7].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for November 14 through 20, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.9, 70, 69.7, 70.1, 70.4, 69.2, and 70.2, with a mean of 69.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 6, 5, 2, 2, and 2, with a mean of 3.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 5, 3, 1, 1, and 1, with a mean of 2.3.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2KJ7cyy
    [2] https://bit.ly/2KL6sJk
    [3] https://bit.ly/2XzVBqS
    [4] https://youtu.be/WrIsipdOfF0
    [5] https://solarwww.mtk.nao.ac.jp/en/db_sunspot.html
    [6] https://www.cqww.com/
    [7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 29 23:57:16 2019
    11/29/2019

    Another week went by with no sunspots. Average daily sunspot number this week rose from 69.9 to 70.4. Average planetary A index rose from 3.6 to 8.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on November 29 through December 6, 69 on December 7-8, 70 on December 9-22, 69 on December 23 through January 4, and 70 on January 5-12.

    Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on November 29 through December 2, 8 on December 3-4, 5 on December 5-7, 8 on December 8, 5 on December 9-12, 6 on December 13, 5 on December 14-17, then 12 and 10 on December 18-19, 8 on December 20-25, 5 on December 26 through January 8, 6 on January 9, and 5 on January 10-12.

    OK1HH sent this:

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 29-December 24, 2019

    Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on November 29-30, December 1, 10-16
    quiet to unsettled on: December 2, 7-9, 17, 20-14
    quiet to active on: December 3-6
    unsettled to active on: December 18-19
    active to disturbed:- none

    Solar wind will intensify on December (3-9, 13-14,) 16-17, (18-24). Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW of Easton, Pennsylvania observed effects from this meteor event: https://bit.ly/2XUaYe6[1]. This event is mentioned in the new video from WX6SWW referenced at the end of this bulletin.

    Mike wrote: "I had two low, one medium, and one high quality pings on FM broadcast (89.1) during the peak which lasted for sixteen minutes from 11:52 pm - 12:08 am.

    "I was using a dual-purpose home/auto Visteon HD Jump Radio with an auto monopole antenna in the horizontal plane poking out the second story radio room north window that is physically orientated to the north/south,  giving a RF beam direction from the west-east.

    "Nothing was seen on the AirSpy HF+ SDR Console spectrum analyzer, waterfall displays with an Antennacraft TV VHF-Lo band (channels 2-6), five element Yagi, model Y526, laying on the top of the backyard shed with a 30 degree pitch angle aimed westerly on analog TV channel 2 (video 55.250, -/+), for detection of active Canadian stations.

    "In my opinion the RF meteor scatter propagation outburst activity was fairly good within a short matter of time."

     

    There is the latest video from WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/yrxSkVTS5aI[2]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[3].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for November 21 through 27, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 69.6, 70.2, 70.6, 69.5, 70.4, and 71.5, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 13, 10, 11, 5, 3, and 4, with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 7, 8, 7, 8, 5, 3, and 2, with a mean of 5.7.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2XUaYe6
    [2] https://youtu.be/yrxSkVTS5aI
    [3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 6 20:15:45 2019
    12/06/2019

    No sunspots again this week. This run of zero sunspots has persisted for over three weeks.

    In last week's bulletin, we erroneously said that average daily sunspot number for the week was 70.4, but as KB8W pointed out this was the value of average daily solar flux. Average daily solar flux for this week, November 28 through December 4, was 70.2.

    Geomagnetic indicators were very quiet, with average planetary A index declining from 8.3 to 3.4, while average mid-latitude A index slipped from 5.7 to 2.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70, in fact that is the value forecast for every one of those days, all the way through January 19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 6-7, then 8 on December 8-9, 5 on December 10-17, then 12, 10, 8 and 8 on December 18-21, 5 on December 22-29, 8 on December 30-31, 5 on January 1-3, 8 on January 4, 5 on January 5-8, 6 on January 9, 5 on January 10-13, then 12, 10, 8 and 8 again on January 14-17, and 5 on January 18-19.

    Spaceweather.com pointed out the Geminid meteor shower is coming up soon, peaking December 13-14, just in time for the ARRL Ten Meter Contest next week on December 14-15. Ionized meteor trails may enhance 10-meter propagation. This article from 2012 describes the source of the Geminids: https://go.nasa.gov/2LqsH7G[1]. This year the full moon appears on December 12, which may interfere with viewing the meteor shower.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 6-31, 2019

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: December 12, 15-17, 23, 28-31
    quiet to unsettled on: December 9-11, 13, 24-27
    quiet to active on: December 6-8, 14, 18, 22
    unsettled to active on: December 21
    active to disturbed: (19-20)

    Solar wind will intensify on: December (13-14, 16,) 18-21
    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    Everything suggests that we are very close to the minimum of the 11-year cycle now.

    Updates on the Parker Solar Probe (thanks to Max White): https://nyti.ms/2DNWMdf[2] and https://go.nasa.gov/2LtTsrX[3]

    Thanks to David Moore for this on solar magnetic waves: https://bit.ly/34YZMPS[4]

    Jon Jones, N0JK reported on 6 meter sporadic-e on December 4: "The winter sporadic-E season began with a strong, long lasting Es opening across North America and the Caribbean December 4. Es first appeared early around 1400z from W5 to W8 and lasted all day to 0040z December 5.

    "I was on from home (Lawrence, KS EM28) around 1830z and made a dozen 6-meter FT8 contacts in Florida and Georgia.

    "Later while driving from Lawrence to Salina, I stopped on highway 177 south of Manhattan, Kansas (EM18) and set up a "fixed mobile" station. I was operating with just 10 watts and a 1/4 wavelength magnet mount antenna. I made seven FT8 contacts with Florida, Georgia, and Virginia. I was called by WA1EAZ in FN42 and decoded WU1ITU FN65 several times. N0LL (EM09) decoded HH2AA, but no contact. Other DX included TI5/N5BEK, XE1MEX, XE2AT, XE2JS, HI8DL, HI8PLE, KP4EIT, HI8RD, NP3XF, NP4BM, and LU5FF Es - TEP by KW4BY."

    The Royal Observatory of Belgium (http://www.sidc.be/silso/home[5]) has an interesting page showing sunspot number predictions for the next 12 months: http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics[6]

    Thanks to Max White for this, on observing the ionosphere from Antarctica: https://bit.ly/2Lsh14w[7]

    Found this on Galileo's sunspot drawings, presented as animation: https://bit.ly/365Xi2r[8]

    The ARRL 160 meter contest begins today at 2200 UTC. The predicted quiet geomagnetic conditions are a good sign. See http://www.arrl.org/160-meter[9] for details.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.[10]

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[16].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17].

    Sunspot numbers for November 28 through December 4, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.2, 69.8, 70.4, 71.2, 70.4, 69.9, and 69.6, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 4, 4, 2, 2, and 3, with a mean of 3.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, and 2, with a mean of 2.

     


    [1] https://go.nasa.gov/2LqsH7G
    [2] https://nyti.ms/2DNWMdf
    [3] https://go.nasa.gov/2LtTsrX
    [4] https://bit.ly/34YZMPS
    [5] http://www.sidc.be/silso/home
    [6] http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics
    [7] https://bit.ly/2Lsh14w
    [8] https://bit.ly/365Xi2r
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/160-meter
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net.x
    [11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [15] http://k9la.us/
    [16] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 13 20:34:55 2019
    12/13/2019

    Spaceweather.com reports that Wednesday, December 11 was the 28th consecutive day with zero sunspots. To date in 2019, 77% of days had no sunspots. Compare this to the previous solar minimum, when 2008 had zero sunspots on 73% of days and 2009 the number of spotless days stood at 71%.

    Average daily solar flux this week (December 5-11) was 70.7, up marginally from the previous week when average flux values were 70.2.

    At the bottom of the solar cycle there is hardly any geomagnetic activity, with average daily planetary A index at 3.7 and average middle latitude A index at 1.9. That is very quiet and is favorable to propagation on 160 meters.

    Just like the report in last week's bulletin, predicted solar flux is 70 on each of the next 45 days, through January 26.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 13-16, then 8, 12, 8, 8 and 10 on December 17-21, 5 on December 22 through January 4, 8 on January 5, then 5 on January 6-8, then 8 on January 9-10, 5 on January 11-13, 12 on January 14, 10 on January 15-17, and 5 on January 18-26.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 13, 2019-January 07, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on: December 15-17, 28-31, January 1-4
    Quiet to unsettled on: December 23-25
    Quiet to active on: December (13-) 14, 22, January 7
    Unsettled to active on: December 18, 21, (26-27,) January 5-6 active to Disturbed: (19-20)

    Solar wind will intensify on: December (13-14, 16,) 18-21, (26,) January 7

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. Everything suggests that we are very close to the minimum of the 11-year cycle at present stage of development.

    G4KSG reported on December 9 at 0900 UTC hearing a conversation on 20-meter SSB between an EA7 and JA3, with his dipole at 30 feet. Checking W6ELprop on that date it looks like signals between Spain and Japan would peak (just barely) around 0730 UTC but fade by 0900. Between England and Japan signals would be peaking around 0700-0800 UTC, then fading. From Spain to England, signals might be marginal at 0900, but then improving with the best time from 1030-1400 UTC. So even with no sunspots, propagation still happens.

    K6XC reported on December 9 that 10 meters appeared dead, but at 2020 UTC he worked ZL1SW using FT8. He used a hexbeam at 40 feet pointed at 60 degrees. Short path to ZL1SW from K6XC is 226.7 degrees, and long path is 46.7 degrees.

    Two recent articles from Nature on the Parker Solar Probe: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03665-3[1] and https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03684-0[2]

    The ARRL Ten Meter Contest is this weekend, starting Friday night in North America. Check http://www.arrl.org/contests[3]

    Although we are currently at solar minimum, conditions may be enhanced by the Geminids meteor shower. Monitoring http://www.livemeteors.com/[4] suggests a fair amount of activity. Check this for more information on how this service works: http://www.livemeteors.com/how-does-this-work[5]

    Check this out: a new prediction for the end of Cycle 24 and new Cycle 25: https://bit.ly/2Eavjms[6]

    K8MKN wrote: "Here's a suggestion, especially with all these zero reports of sunspots. Can you do a flashback to what the sunspot readings were a year ago or two years ago, or maybe 11 years ago? It might be interesting to put it in context with what's going on today."

    Here are the bulletins from 2013-2018, with sunspot numbers toward the bottom: http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2018[7]

    http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2017[8]

    http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2016[9]

    http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2015[10]

    http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2014[11]

    http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2013[12]

    They show average daily sunspot numbers (working backwards) of 9.7, 2.3, 40.9, 48, 88.4, and 102.9.

    The latest video from WX6SWW: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzA57ZxBspY&t=8s[13]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[14].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[15] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[16]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[17].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[18]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[19].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[20].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[21].

    Sunspot numbers for December 5 through 11, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.7, 70.3, 70.2, 71.6, 70.7, 70.6, and 70.7, with a mean of 70.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, and 6, with a mean of 3.7. Middle latitude A index was 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 3, with a mean of 1.9.

     


    [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03665-3
    [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03684-0
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/contests
    [4] http://www.livemeteors.com/
    [5] http://www.livemeteors.com/how-does-this-work
    [6] https://bit.ly/2Eavjms
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2018
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2017
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2016
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2015
    [11] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2014
    [12] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2013
    [13] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzA57ZxBspY&amp;t=8s
    [14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [15] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [16] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [17] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [18] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [19] http://k9la.us/
    [20] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [21] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 20 20:53:19 2019
    12/20/2019

    Still no sunspots, and it's been the same for 37 consecutive days.

    Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet, until "a minor stream of solar wind" (according to Spaceweather.com) hit us on December 18. This drove the planetary A index to 13 from the low single digit values earlier in the week.

    Average planetary A index for December 12-18 rose to 4.6, from 3.7 over the previous 7 days, while mid-latitude A index increased from 1.9 to 4.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70, and we've seen this same daily 45-day flux forecast since December 2. December 1 was the last time there was any value in the forecast other than 70 when they predicted 69 for December 23 through January 4. The forecast is updated daily at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[1] .

    Predicted planetary A index from the same forecast is 8 on December 20-21, 5 on December 22 through January 4, 8 on January 5, 5 on January 6-8, 8 on January 9-10, 5 on January 11-13, 12 on January 14, 10 on January 15-17, 5 on January 18-31, 8 on February 1, and 5 on January 2.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 20, 2019 until January 15, 2020 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: December 28-31, January 1-4, 8
    Quiet to unsettled on: December 21-27, January 7, 9-13
    Quiet to active on: (December 20, January 5-6)
    Unsettled to active on: (January 14-15)
    There are no disturbed conditions in this forecast.

    Solar wind will intensify on: January (14,) 15 (-16)

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Everything suggests that we are very close to the minimum of the 11-year cycle at present stage of development.

    Naturally, because of weak solar activity, the ARRL 10 Meter Contest last weekend was rather slow. Jon Jones, N0JK from Kansas wrote: "With a solar flux of 70 and a low K index, not much F-layer propagation was expected in the 2019 ARRL 10-Meter contest.

    "But Sunday afternoon I found a strong 10 Meter opening to Argentina and Chile from Kansas. I set up 'fixed mobile' with 5 watts and a 1/4 wave whip on the car at around 1800z December 15. I didn't expect much, but heard several very loud stations from South America on CW. I put CE2ML and LW8DQ in the log. Signals were up to 599. I wonder if this was a 'Es - TEP' opening?

    "When I got home, I checked DXMaps. It showed what appeared to be an Es cloud over Louisiana. This may have supported 10 Meter propagation on to CE and LU. Es can raise the MUF when the signal hits the F-Layer and are often strong. It was a nice treat for an otherwise slow contest."

    Here at K7RA using a very limited low-elevation random-wire antenna, I checked 10 meters in the last hour of the contest on Sunday looking to hand out a few contacts. I heard no local stations here in the Seattle area on SSB but did manage to work some CW operators.

    N8II reported the following to the 3830 contesting forum (excerpts): "The F2 opening to the south was much better Saturday. The Geminids meteor shower did coincide with the contest this year which saved the day especially for the big guns.

    "Friday, Saturday morning and evening, and Sunday morning I was able to work meteor scatter on CW in all directions and there was some activity from most of the states/provinces within the approximate 1500-mile meteor-scatter range. For example, I worked all W1 except RI and all of eastern Canada except NL, PE and NU. I worked 4 NB stations, about 1-2 via brief sporadic E.

    "There was a short sporadic E opening late Sunday around 2127-2205Z to TX, AR, IA but again activity was low. Sunday was a real grinder with most stations already worked. The meteor scatter died out around 1600Z Sunday. F2 was limited to Brazil and Chile here from 2016-2057Z. It was difficult to work PY even when above S5 here; I guess many locations in PY have high noise levels."

    Here is the latest video forecast from Dr. Skov, WX6SWW: https://bit.ly/2MeZrBh[2]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[3].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for December 12 through 18, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.5, 68.9, 70.3, 71, 70, 70.5, and 70.2, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 5, 1, 2, and 13, with a mean of 4.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 2, 5, 1, 2, and 12, with a mean of 4.

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [2] https://bit.ly/2MeZrBh
    [3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 27 23:11:20 2019
    12/27/2019

    Still no sunspots, and it's been the same for 37 consecutive days.

    Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet, until "a minor stream of solar wind," according to Spaceweather.com[1], hit us on December 18. This drove the planetary A index to 13 from the low single-digits earlier in the week.

    Average planetary A index for December 12 - 18 rose to 4.6, from 3.7 over the previous 7 days, while mid-latitude A index increased from 1.9 to 4.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70, and we've seen this same daily 45-day flux forecast since December 2. December 1 was the last time there was any value in the forecast other than 70 when they predicted 69 for December 23 through January 4. The forecast[2] is updated daily.

    Predicted planetary A index from the same forecast is 8 on December 20 - 21, 5 on December 22 through January 4, 8 on January 5, 5 on January 6 - 8, 8 on January 9 - 10, 5 on January 11 - 13, 12 on January 14, 10 on January 15 - 17, 5 on January 18 - 31, 8 on February 1, and 5 on January 2.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 20 until January 15 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be...


    o Quiet on: December 28 - 31, January 1 - 4, 8


    o Quiet to unsettled on: December 21 - 27, January 7, 9 - 13


    o Quiet to active on: (December 20, January 5 - 6)


    o Unsettled to active on: (January 14 - 15)


    o There are no disturbed conditions in this forecast.


    o Solar wind will intensify on: January (14,) 15 ( - 16)



    (Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.)

    Everything suggests that we are very close to the minimum of the 11-year cycle.

    Naturally because of weak solar activity, the 10 meter contest last weekend was rather slow.

    Jon Jones, N0JK, from Kansas wrote:

    "With a solar flux of 70 and a low K index, not much F-layer propagation was expected in the 2019 ARRL 10 Meter Contest. But Sunday afternoon I found a strong 10-meter opening to Argentina and Chile from Kansas. I set up fixed mobile with 5 W and a quarter-wave whip on the car around 1800 UTC December 15. I didn't expect much, but heard several very loud stations from South America on CW. I put CE2ML and LW8DQ in the log. Signals were up to 599. I wonder if this was a 'Es/TEP' opening?

    "When I got home, I checked DXMaps[3]. It showed what appeared to be an Es cloud over Louisiana. This may have supported 10-meter propagation to CE and LU. Es can raise the MUF when the signal hits the F-Layer and are often strong. A nice treat for an otherwise slow 10 Meter Contest."

    Here at K7RA, using a very limited low-elevation random-wire antenna, I checked 10 meters in the last hour of the contest on Sunday looking to hand out a few QSOs. I heard no local stations here in the Seattle area on SSB, but did manage to work some CW operators.

    N8II reported to the 3830@contesting.com[4] forum:

    "The F2 opening to the south was much better Saturday. The Geminids meteor shower did coincide with the contest this year which saved the day especially for the big guns.

    "Friday, Saturday morning and evening, and Sunday morning I was able to work meteor scatter on CW in all directions and there was some activity from most of the states/provinces within the approximate 1500 mile MS range. For example, I worked all W1 except RI, and all of eastern Canada except NL, PE, and NU. I worked four NB stations, one or two of them via brief sporadic E.

    "There was a short sporadic E opening late Sunday around 2127 - 2205 UTC to TX, AR, IA, but again activity was low. Sunday was a real grinder with most stations already worked. The meteor scatter died out around 1600 Sunday. F2 was limited to Brazil and Chile here from 2016 - 2057Z. It was difficult to work PY even when above S5 here; I guess many locations in PY have high noise levels."

    Here's a new forecast[5] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for December 12 - 18 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 70.5, 68.9, 70.3, 71, 70, 70.5, and 70.2, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 5, 1, 2, and 13, with a mean of 4.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 2, 5, 1, 2, and 12, with a mean of 4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. Monthly charts[10] offer propagation projections between the US and a dozen DX locations.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [3] https://www.dxmaps.com/
    [4] mailto:3830@contesting.com
    [5] https://bit.ly/2MeZrBh
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 3 20:28:36 2020
    01/03/2020

    Sunspots appeared recently, all indicating cycle 25 due to their polarity, opposite from spots in cycle 24. Sunspots appeared December 24-26, and it looks like a new cycle 25 spot on January 1. NOAA did not report it (too weak?) but Spaceweather.com reported a sunspot number of 11 on January 1.

    On January 2 NOAA reported the new spot with a sunspot number of 23.

    Sorry, but the final propagation bulletin of 2019 was not sent out due to a misunderstanding on my part, so the usual paragraph of numbers at the bottom of this bulletin has an additional paragraph for last week.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is higher than recent forecasts. Solar flux is predicted at 72 on January 3-10, 70 on January 11, 72 on January 12-25, 70 on January 26 through February 7, and 72 on February 8-16.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 3-13, then 12 on January 14-15, 5 on January 16-25, 8 on January 26-28, 5 on January 29 through February 9, 10 on February 10-11, and 5 on February 12-16.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 3-29, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on January 3-4, 8, 29
    quiet to unsettled on January 5-7, 9-13, 18-21, 25-28
    quiet to active on (January 14, 17, 22-24)
    unsettled to active on (January 15-16)
    No active to disturbed days predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on January (14,) 15-16, (17, 22-24)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Everything suggests that we are very, very close to the minimum of the 11-year cycle.

    Dick, K1HC, wrote on December 31: "I was on FT8 on 2 meters yesterday from home in FN42 (400 watts and four 12-element Yagis) at about 1630 UTC, and I was watching the PSK Reporter website to see if I was reaching any other stations. I saw that K2DRH in EN41 had received my FT8 signal at -14dB. With that being over 900 miles away, I went to the ON4KST chat page and tried to contact K2DRH there without luck. He was logged in but may have been tied up or away from the computer.

    "I am wondering if it was a meteor scatter long burn rather than sporadic E propagation. However, I switched to MSK144, and I did not see any pings from any other stations. I went to higher power, about 700 watts, and had no further spots on the PSK Reporter from the Midwest.

    "I thought you would be interested in the unusual propagation. I will hope for more of it during the ARRL VHF contest in January from FN53 in Maine!"

    Goodness! 48 elements in phase and 400 watts with FT8? With that gear, seems like anything may be possible.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[1].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for December 19 through 25, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 24, and 23, with a mean of 6.7. 10.7 cm flux was 69.9, 70, 70.6, 71, 72.6, 72.7, and 72.1, with a mean of 71.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, and 4, with a mean of 5.4. Middle latitude A index was 12, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, and 3, with a mean of 4.1.

    Sunspot numbers for December 26, 2019 through January 1, 2020 were 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 11, with a mean of 3.1. 10.7 cm flux was 72.1, 72.4, 72.2, 72, 70.9, 70.5, and 71.8, with a mean of 71.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.1. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 0, 0, 2, 4, and 3, with a mean of 2.

     


    [1] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 10 17:47:41 2020
    01/10/2020

    A single new Cycle 25 sunspot appeared over the past week, January 1 through January 8. NOAA did not record or number the new spot until January 2, but Spaceweather.com indicated it (sunspot region 2755) began on January 1.

    Then another new Cycle 25 spot emerged on Thursday, January 9, with a daily sunspot number of 14. I was excited to see Spaceweather.com post "Solar Cycle 25 Continues to Intensify."

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 3.1 to 8.4. The solar flux average rose insignificantly from 71.7 to 71.8. Geomagnetic indicators were slightly higher, with average planetary A index increasing from 3.1 to 6.3, and average middle latitude A index rising from 2 to 5.3.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 74 on January 10-12, 72 on January 13-25, 70 on January 26 through February 7, and 72 on February 8-22 and 70 on February 23.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 10, 5 on January 11-12, 8 on January 13, 10 on January 14-15, 8 on January 16, 5 on January 17-31, then 8, 8 and 5 on February 1-3, 10 on February 4-6, 5 on February 7-9, 10 on February 10-11, 5 on February 12-22 and 8 on February 23.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 10 until February 5, 2020 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on January 12-13, 18-19, 29-30
    Quiet to unsettled on January 10-11, 20-21, 24-28, February 5
    Quiet to active on (January 14, 16-17, 22-23, 31, February 1-4)
    Unsettled to active on (January 15)

    Solar wind will intensify on January 14-16, (17, 22-24,) February 4-6

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Jon Jones, N0JK sent this 6-meter report from Kansas on January 8: "Sporadic-E was scarce in December 2019 after early openings the first week. Six meters came back to life the last couple of days. Sporadic-E was reported on January 6, 7, 8 and 9. The most widespread Es was on the 8th with most of the eastern half of North America taking part. Stations began making Es contacts around 1800z (Illinois to Texas) and it lasted until 0035z January 9. From eastern Kansas, I worked W1, W2, W3 and W4 around 2200z. Best DX was to WA1EAZ (FN42) and K1SIX (FN42). N0LL (EM09) and N0YO (EM18) made many Es contacts.

    "Later I set up "fixed mobile" with 10 watts and 1/4 wave whip south of Manhattan, Kansas. I worked a very loud KN4NN (EM60) at 0032z January 9 at the opening's end.

    "The Quadrantids meteor shower peaked earlier than predicted January 4 at 0500z with a ZHR of 125. At that time the shower radiant was too low to be usable for meteors for North America. Larry, N0LL, was operating portable from rare grid EN02 the morning of the 4th. He was on the air at about 1200z on 6-meter msk144 and made over 20 contacts. The ZHR at this time was only around 25, but still higher than normal."

    Jeff, N8II, reported from West Virginia on January 3: "Several long time 160 operators agree with me that during the Stew Perry Top Band DX Challenge on January 28-29 we had some of the best DX conditions ever in a 160 meter event! I was not able to operate full time, but with my 100W and half sloper antenna (starting at 80 feet high), I was able to work 34 European stations in just the 05Z hour (the total was about 20 higher), which is near sunrise in Central and Eastern Europe. Some signals were very strong. I worked multiple stations each in Russia, Ukraine, Finland, Sweden, and Lithuania. Also worked was D4Z in Cape Verde, LU8DPM in Argentina (best DX), and OH0R in the Aland Islands.

    "Conditions on almost all nights recently have been excellent on 80 and 160 meters. Hannes, DK1NO, is routinely S9 +20dB on 75-meter phone around 23-24Z. After months of not hearing him, I managed to work Santi, VU2GSM, in India on both 40 and 80-meter CW in the past 2 weeks. He operates nearly every day based on the DX cluster spots. I also heard UA9BA in Asiatic Russia with a good signal on 160-meter CW on January 2 at around 0215Z working a European. I have added many new band-slot countries to my log in the past 3 weeks on the low bands.

    "Twenty-meter conditions virtually every day are excellent to Central and Western Europe. Fifteen meters has been nearly closed to Europe, but I hear occasional stations in the Mediterranean area around 14-15Z and most days the band is open to Africa well with very sparse activity.

    "Ten meters has been essentially dead for F2 propagation recently and sporadic E has been very limited compared to seasonal norms. We did have a good Es opening during the ARRL 10-Meter Contest to Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin on the second Saturday morning of December. The primary mode of ionospheric propagation during the contest was meteor scatter enhanced by the Geminids meteor shower. There was an opening to South America Saturday afternoon."

    N8II reported on January 9: "Propagation has been quite interesting this week with unexpected happenings on 160 through 10 meters. On January 6 there was a good but poorly attended 15-meter opening to Europe; OK2PAY in the Czech Republic was worked 599 at 1354Z followed by IW5EKR/M on 15 SSB at 1403Z. I also worked VA2RF in Quebec just north of the Maine border. I strongly suspect a sporadic E on the North American end to an F2 link for this opening. I then had a big run of about 20 Western European stations on 20-meter SSB from 1530-1630Z (1630 is a bit late for good conditions). The 7th seemed down from normal, but I did work France, Spain, and Daniel, ZD7DL, on St. Helena Island on 17 meters at around 1600Z.

    "Last evening, January 8, there was strong sporadic E on 10-meter SSB from 2200-2225Z. I logged stations in Mississippi, Texas, Missouri, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa. After a dinner break at 2322Z, I logged 3D2AG/P on Rotuma Island at 2322Z on 17-meter CW at about 80 minutes past sunset thanks to the Es-to-F2 link to the west. Starting at 2327Z there was a best-it-ever-gets opening to Europe on 160-meter CW. IK5ZUK in Italy averaged S9+20db and I also worked very loud IK5ZUL, as well as Romania, Spain, England, Denmark, and Sweden.

    "Today, January 9, there was another very intense sporadic E opening on 10-meters SSB from 2126Z until past 0135Z. I logged stations in Kansas, Minnesota, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Ohio. At 0117Z, LA5MIA in northern Norway was logged at an S7 signal lever via auroral Es. There was very little Es from December 16 through January 5, so these openings were quite a pleasant surprise. Many stations with simple antennas were S9 or better!"

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW reported: "Today, January 9, at 3 AM local (0800 UTC) a rare winter season sporadic-E event occurred on the 11-meter band in Easton, Pennsylvania (FN20jq). States heard were toward the south, Florida, Alabama, and as far west as Texas.

    "The Kp index rose to 4, which aided to produce auroras over the southern Canadian provinces that stretched from coast-to-coast with a solar flux index (SFI) of 74. It seems that Solar Cycle 25 is very slowly intensifying out of its slumber."

    Here is a news article about transition to Cycle 25: https://bit.ly/2QVHqto[1]

    Watch W1PJE's MIT lecture on solar physics and HF propagation: https://bit.ly/35wM9He[2]


    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[3].

    For more information concerning radio propagation,
    see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for January 2 through 8, 2020 were 13, 13, 11, 11, 11, 0, and 0, with a mean of 8.4. 10.7 cm flux was 71.9, 71.2, 72.2, 71.8, 70.5, 71.6, and 73.7, with a mean of 71.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 6, 6, 9, 9, 5, and 6, with a mean of 6.3. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 7, 9, 4, and 4, with a mean of 5.3.


    [1] https://bit.ly/2QVHqto
    [2] https://bit.ly/35wM9He
    [3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 17 20:06:45 2020
    01/17/2020

    Cycle 25 sunspots persisted for the first two days (January 9-10) of this reporting week, January 9-15, with daily sunspot numbers of 14 and 11. That brought the weekly average daily sunspot number from 8.4 last week to 3.6. Average daily solar flux edged up from 71.8 to 72.5.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 6.3 to 5.6, and average middle latitude A index went from 5.3 to 3.7.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 72 and 71 on January 17-18, 70 on January 19 through February 7, 72 on February 8-22, and 70 on February 23 through March 1.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 17-18, 8 on January 19-20, 5 on January 21-31, 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3, 10 on February 4-6, 5 on February 7-9, 10 on February 10-11, 5 on February 12-22, 8 on February 23-24, 5 on February 25-27, 8 on February 28-29 and 5 on March 1.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 17 until February 12, 2020 by F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: January 18, 29-30, February 6-9
    Quiet to unsettled on: January 19-21, 24-28, February 1, 4-5, 10-11
    Quiet to active on: (January 17, 22-23, 31, February 2-3, 12)
    No unsettled to active periods predicted.
    No active to disturbed periods predicted.

    Solar wind will intensify on: January (17, 22-24,) February 2 (-5)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    The predictability of changes is lower again

    N8II wrote, concerning his report in last week's bulletin, "I forgot to mention that the January 9 contact with LA5MIA was on 20-meter SSB vs the Es contacts on 10 meters."

    Also, from Jon Jones, N0JK, "Jeff, N8II, mentioned conditions on 160 meters in the Stew Perry contest 'January 28-29.' I am sure he meant December 28-29, 2019. (https://www.kkn.net/stew/stew_rules.html[1]) His 10-meter Es reports correlate with the 6-meter Es occurring. I'm hoping for more winter Es."

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK noted in an email titled "more corrections": "I made some boo-boos, too. K1SIX is in grid FN43. KN4NN is in grid EM70."

    N0JK shared late on January 16: "Six-meter Es seemed to vanish after the strong openings the second week of January. A brief Es opening between Florida and Ohio was noted January 13 around 1800z by KD4ESV in EL87, KW4BY in EL96, and others. AA5B operated MSK144 meteor scatter January 15 from rare grid DM63. The January VHF contest this weekend."

    It seems we have crossed a threshold. Though solar activity remains low, recent history shows no Cycle 24 sunspots, only Cycle 25 activity. I remain optimistic. Also, with historically low geomagnetic activity, this is a great time to enjoy 160 meters.

    Here is the latest video from WX6SWW: https://bit.ly/389wQWI[2]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[3].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for January 9 through 15, 2020 were 14, 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.6. 10.7 cm flux was 74.4, 72.8, 73.5, 71.9, 71.5, 71.9, and 71.2, with a mean of 72.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 7, 6, 4, 3, 3, and 4, with a mean of 5.6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 6, 4, 2, 2, 2, and 2, with a mean of 3.7.

     


    [1] https://www.kkn.net/stew/stew_rules.html
    [2] https://bit.ly/389wQWI
    [3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 24 20:24:28 2020
    01/24/2020

    No sunspots appeared over this reporting week (January 16-22) and on January 22 Spaceeweather.com reported currently the consecutive period of spotless days is 11. But all recent sunspots have had Cycle 25 polarity.

    Average daily solar flux reported in last week's bulletin was 72.5, and this week it was 71.2.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 5.6 to 4.1, and the middle latitude A index changed from 3.7 to 3.

    Predicted solar flux is 71 on January 24-31, 72 on February 1-5, 71 on February 6-20, 72 on February 21 to March 3, 71 on March 4, and 70 on March 5-8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 24-31, 10 on February 1-5, 5 on February 6-27, 10 on February 28 to March 3, and 5 on March 4-8.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 24-February 19, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on: January 29-30, February 6-9, 13-16
    quiet to unsettled on: January 24-28, February 1, 4-5, 10-11, 18-19
    quiet to active on: (January 31, February 2-3, 12, 17)
    unsettled to active on: no days
    active to disturbed: no days

    Solar wind will intensify on: January 24, February 2 (-3,) 6-7,
    12-13, 18-19

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    The predictability of changes is lower again.

    David Moore sent this article, ""Scientists measure the evolving energy of a solar flare's explosive first minutes": https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200117122105.htm[1]

    The latest video from WX6SWW: https://bit.ly/2RY4HLZ[2]

    On January 21, G4KSG told me that two days earlier using a dipole at 30 feet he heard both sides of a EA3/JA7 QSO at 0900 UTC on 20 meters, but he did not specify the mode.

    From Jeff, N8II: "Weather is very warm here after 4 inches of wet snow and 3 cold days this week, currently about 52 degrees F at 9 PM; 66 degrees tomorrow!

    "I took down a 40-meter quad loop antenna today that performed poorly compared to my 80-meter dipole fed with ladder line. It took a while to remove all of the wire wrapped with stiff heavy wire at the insulators to prevent slippage and untie tight knots. I will put up a 40-meter dipole with higher average height.

    "In the past month my band-slot totals have increased considerably, about 1950 slots since January 2017 as I recall counting the same country on CW and SSB on the same band as two slots. Very few DXpeditions were active, but activity and low-band conditions were good over the Christmas season. A UK group at ZC4UW in the British bases on Cyprus was active with over 25,000 contacts, but good for only 1 slot as ZC4A was on the air another year."

    When there are no sunspots, 160 meters seems to improve, probably because of lower associated geomagnetic activity. In fact, geomagnetic activity is recently nearly non-existent. This weekend is the CQ World-Wide 160-meter CW contest. See details at https://www.cq160.com/rules.htm[3]


    Note the low geo-activity toward the end of 2019:

    ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2019Q4_DGD.txt[4]

    Compared to 2015:

    ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2015_DGD.txt[5]

    Note October 29-30, 2003!

    ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2003_DGD.txt[6]

    Check this bulletin from back then:

    http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP044/2003[7]

    Be sure to check out the SSN/flux values for that week!

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[8].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[14].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15].

    Sunspot numbers for January 16 through 22, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 71.8, 70.1, 71.3, 71.8, 71.2, 70.5, and 71.9, with a mean of 71.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 4, 3, 2, 6, and 6, with a mean of 4.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 2, 3, 2, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 3.



     


    [1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200117122105.htm
    [2] https://bit.ly/2RY4HLZ
    [3] https://www.cq160.com/rules.htm
    [4] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2019Q4_DGD.txt
    [5] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2015_DGD.txt
    [6] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2003_DGD.txt
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP044/2003
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 31 20:43:18 2020
    01/31/2020

    This week we finally saw the return of sunspots, over seven of the last eight days, January 24-30. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from zero to 11.1, while average daily solar flux jumped from 71.2 to 72.9.

    Geomagnetic indicators remained very quiet, signaling continued great conditions on 160 and 80 meters.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month and a half is 74 on January 31 through February 2, 70 on February 3-6, 71 on February 7-13, 72 on February 14-20, 73 on February 21-22, 74 on February 23-29, 72 on March 1-3, 71 on March 4-11, and 72 on March 12-15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 31, 5 on February 1-4, 10 on February 5-6, 5 on February 7-24, 10 on February 25-26, 5 on February 27-29, 8 on March 1-3, and 5 on March 4-15.

    On January 27, 2020 the total sunspot area was 100 millionth of the visible solar disc. The total sunspot area hasn't been larger or even near that size since May 18, 2019 when the area was 140 millionth.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 31 to February 26, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH and the Czech Propagation Interest group. OK1HH has been making these reports for 42 years, since January 1978.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: February 8-9, 15-16, 20-23
    quiet to unsettled on: February 3, 10-11, 14, 18-19, 24
    quiet to active on: (January 31, February 1-2, 6-7, 13, 26)
    unsettled to active on: (February 4-5, 12, 17, 25)
    active to disturbed: no predicted disturbances.

    Solar wind will intensify on: January 31, February 1 (-3,) 6-7, 12-15, (16,) 18-20, (21-22,) 26.

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    The predictability of changes is lower again.

    Thanks to all who sent in this, a link to the highest resolution images of the Sun ever recorded: https://bit.ly/2tSr1P6[1]

    David Moore sent this link: "A 'great' space weather super-storm large enough to cause significant disruption to our electronic and networked systems occurred on average once in every 25 years according to a new study." https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200129104745.htm[2]

    Rich Zwirko, K1HTV, wrote: "This winter season has been very good one for morning DXing here in Virginia on 160 meters. In the past 2 weeks, I have worked 12 different stations in Japan on FT8 on the Topband. Running only 75 W, 8 of the 12 contacts with Japan were made after my local sunrise, some as late as 30 minutes past sunrise. Some Japanese stations were decoded more than 40 minutes after the Sun had risen. Many days with the K index at 0 or 1 is making for a very stable path through the magnetic north polar region to the Orient.

    "Activity on the higher bands have been made more interesting with a number of maritime mobile stations now working the FT8 mode. Stations traveling through many of the world's water grids and signing /MM at the end of their calls include DD6AJ, HA3FOK, R0LER, UR7FM, UT1FG, UW5EJX and YU2AX.

    "Even with the Solar Flux Index in the low 70's, the 15-meter band has been open daily for FT8 contacts with stations in South America and a few in western Africa. The 17-meter band has been open daily to Europe, Africa, South Americas and there have also been a few openings to Australia and New Zealand stations.

    "I'm looking forward to the summer months, hoping for a good 6-meter DX season."

    Solar orbiter launches next week: https://bit.ly/38MfKhY[3]

    On January 24, Jon Pollock, K0ZN, in De Soto, Kansas wrote: "Friday night, January 17, there was some extraordinary propagation on 80-meter (CW) about 0530 UTC. Europeans were very strong here in the Midwest, well over S-9 in some cases. I had just finished working an Italian station and the next station that called him, which had about an S-6 signal was in New Zealand. I listened to the entire exchange between the Italian station and the New Zealander. I have never heard anything like that before on 80 meters. Basically, 80 meters was open with good signals over the entire dark side of the planet. My antenna is an 80-meter dipole at 35 feet. This is my solar minimum and I'm accustomed to 80 and 160 meters being better at these times. Clearly, the longer skip zone when the band goes 'long' late at night, reduces the received noise levels."

    On January 26 Jon also wrote: "I got into ham radio in 1959. I like the low bands and I see it as a great equalizer. I can't put up a big antenna on the upper bands, but many of the Big Guns can't put up a big antenna on 80 and 160, so the playing field gets leveled. I have (in terms of distance) worked some really good DX on 80 and 160 this winter with simple wire antennas. One must change bands with the sunspot cycles if you want to have fun!"

    N8II wrote on January 24 from West Virginia: "In the CW OPS mini contest at 1900Z Saturday, the skip zones were very long on 40 and 20, but 15 was wide open to southern California. Fifteen meters has been pretty quiet; I heard FR4QT (peaking S7) on Reunion Island chatting with a Caribbean station (unreadable) at 1500Z on Wednesday, January 22. I did get an answer from a French station who was weak on another day at around 1445Z on 15 meters.

    "Low band conditions have declined in the past 10 days, but at 0330Z 160 was in good shape to LY4A in Lithuania with a S9 signal. I also logged 4Z5IW in Israel through a North American pileup (he was S4-7).

    Here is latest space weather report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from several days ago: https://youtu.be/Xuz2t0-l5NE[4]

    Recently I (K7RA) decided to try FT8 with the very crude and limited wire antenna I mentioned in ARLP051 at the recent end of last year. This is a wire of no particular length (perhaps 30 to 40 feet total) that winds around through laurel bushes in my back yard, about 4 feet above the ground, fastened to the branches with tie-wraps and fed with an antenna tuner.

    I knew FT8 was a powerful weak signal mode, but I was astonished at the results on 80, 30 and 20 meters. Running low power, I was being heard all over the world. Checking pskreporter.info[5] I was surprised to see my signal reported from central Russia on 30 meters, as well as by various Japan, New Zealand and Brazilian stations, and of course coverage all over North America. Even though I had very few 2-way contacts (which are minimal anyway in FT8), just seeing where my pipsqueak signal was propagating was quite a revelation.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for January 23 through 29, 2020 were 0, 12, 14, 18, 12, 11, and 11, with a mean of 11.1. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 71, 72.7, 74.7, 72.9, 74.2, and 74.3, with a mean of 72.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 3, 4, 3, 5, and 9, with a mean of 4.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 1, 3, 2, 2, 4, and 6, with a mean of 3.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2tSr1P6
    [2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200129104745.htm
    [3] https://bit.ly/38MfKhY
    [4] https://youtu.be/Xuz2t0-l5NE
    [5] http://pskreporter.info
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 7 21:01:16 2020
    02/07/2020

    We saw a nice run of cycle 24 and cycle 25 sunspots from January 24 through February 1. Daily sunspot number reached a short-term peak of 18 on January
     26.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 11.1 reported in last week's bulletin to 4.7 over the current reporting week, January 30 through February 5.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 71 on February 7-14, 72 on February 15-20, 73 on February 21-22, 74 on February 23-29, 72 on March 1-3, 71 on March 4-11, 72 on March 12-18, 73 on March 19-20, and 74 on March 21-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 7, 5 on February 8-24, 10 on February 25-26, 5 on February 27-29, 8 on March 1-3, and 5 on March 4-22.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 7 until March 04, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on: February 12, 15-23
    quiet to unsettled on: February 8, 10-11, 13-14, 24, 27, March 1-4
    quiet to active on: February 7, (9, 28)
    unsettled to active on: (February 25-26)
    active to disturbed: none

    Solar wind will intensify on: February 7, 12-15, (16,) 18-20
    (21-22,) 26, (March 4)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    David Moore sent this: "Scientists have unlocked one of the mysteries of how particles from flares on the sun accumulate at early stages in the energization of hazardous radiation that is harmful to astronauts, satellites and electronic equipment. Using data from NASA's Parker Solar Probe, they observed one of the largest events that shows how plasma is released after a solar flare can accelerate and pile up energetic particles generating dangerous radiation conditions."

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200203162844.htm[1]

    AA2F sent this in a message he titled "Martian Sporadic E?" https://bit.ly/2H14NgL[2]

    Ted Leaf, K6HI, Kona, Hawaii sent this: https://bit.ly/2OAFwhn[3]

    Jeff, N8II reported on January 31: "The CQ World Wide 160 meter CW contest on January 25 and 26 featured the best conditions I have ever experienced in a Top Band test. I worked 34 outside of North American DX contacts on the first night and 90 Europeans the second night running 100 W to my half sloper antenna!

    "From 0030-0330Z signals were incredibly strong from Europe. I was able to call CQ and get many European answers from all over the continent and was called by P33W in Cyprus and 4X2M in Israel. A total of 26 Germans were logged in the contest. The highlight of the first night was being called by CX6VM in Uruguay for my best DX of the weekend.

    The solar flux continues to inch higher, but openings on 17 meters to Europe are generally poor and just an occasional Mediterranean opening occurs on 15 meter around 1500Z."

    Here is the latest video forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/aZWWc72meBA[4]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for January 30 through February 5, 2020 were 11, 11, 11, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 4.7. 10.7 cm flux was 74.1, 73.9, 72.5, 72.2, 72.1, 70.3, and 70.6, with a mean of 72.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 8, 6, 6, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 4, 4, 3, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.

     


    [1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200203162844.htm
    [2] https://bit.ly/2H14NgL
    [3] https://bit.ly/2OAFwhn
    [4] https://youtu.be/aZWWc72meBA
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 14 20:20:55 2020
    02/14/2020

    There were no sunspots over this reporting week, February 6-12. Average daily solar flux declined over one point to 71.1. Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 8.3.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on February 14-21, 73 on February 22, 74 on February 23-29, 72 on March 1-3, 71 on March 4-11, 72 on March 12-18, 73 on March 19-20, 74 on March 21-27, and 72 on March 28-29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 14-17, 8 on February 18-20, 5 on February 21-24, 10 on February 25-26, 5 on February 27-29, 8 on March 1-3, 5 on March 4-22, 10 on March 23-24, 5 on March 25-27, and 8 on March 28-29.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 14 until March 18, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: February 15-16, 20-23, March
    Quiet to unsettled on: February 14, 19, 24, 28, March 1-4, 7-11
    Quiet to active on: February (17-18, 27, 29), March 6
    Unsettled to active on: (February 25-26, March 5)
    active to disturbed: none predicted!

    Solar wind will intensify on February (14-15, 18-20, 27,) 28 (-29,) March (3,) 4-5, (6-10,) 11

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Ken, N4SO, writes from Alabama's Gulf Coast, "On 17 meters and the digital mode FT8, the band is open all day to Brazil, Argentina, Italy, Spain, Poland, and European Russia. (This is only a sampling of countries from the first hour, Saturday morning on or about 1200 UTC.) This propagation continues all day to South America and all parts of Europe. These openings are every day with openings also to Japan and to Philippines.

    "Seventeen meters is one of the best bands for Europe with continuous signals during the daytime. It is also one of the best bands for Japan starting at about 2300 UTC. This propagation is also reliable every day."

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[1].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for February 6 through 12, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 71.3, 70.8, 72, 70.6, 70.2, 71.1, and 71.6, with a mean of 71.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 15, 15, 6, 7, 5, 6, and 4, with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 13, 11, 4, 5, 4, 6, and 4, with a mean of 6.7.

     


    [1] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 21 20:39:06 2020
    02/21/2020

    The most recent sunspot appearance was on February 1, nearly three weeks ago.

    Average daily solar flux over the past week declined just barely from 71.1 to 70.9.

    Average daily planetary A index changed from 8.3 to 7, and mid-latitude A index went from 6.7 to 5.1. Solar activity remains very low.

    Predicted solar flux is projected to remain very low, at 70 on February 20-27, and 71 on February 28 through April 4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 10 and 8 on February 20-22, 5 on February 23-25, then 8 and 12 on February 26-27, 5 on February 28 through March 3, then 20, 15 and 8 on March 4-6, 5 on March 7-14, then 10, 8, 10, 8 and 5 on March 15-19, then 10, 8, 5, 8, 12 and 10 on March 20-25, 5 on March 26-30, 20 on March 31, and 15, 8, 5 and 5 on April 1-4.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 21 to March 18, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: February 22-23, March 1-4
    Quiet to unsettled on: February 21, March 1-2, 8, 11-13, 15, 18
    Quiet to active on: March 3, 6-7, 9-10
    Unsettled to active on: February 25, 27, (29,) March 4-5, (16-17)
    Active to disturbed: nothing predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on February (14-15, 18-20, 27,) 28 (-29), March (3,) 4-5, (6-10,) 11

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Check out the new Eclectic Tech ARRL podcast, the most recent of which (February 13) has insights from K9LA regarding solar cycle progress and effects on HF propagation: https://blubrry.com/eclectictech/[1]

    Ken, N4TUT, in Florida (EL98gp) reported: "Had a nice opening on 10 meters on February 18 from 1900z to 2150z to the south, working Brazil, Curacao, Martinique, Peru, Guadeloupe, and Chile. I also heard the DX stations working Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia. I worked one WM6 in California off back corner of my beam."

    Ken didn't give an indication of which modes he used. CW? SSB? Perhaps these were all FT8.
     
    Jon Jones, N0JK, in Kansas wrote on February 18: "Saturday was very slow on 10 meters in the ARRL International DX CW contest with almost no spots and few contacts reported by contestants. This wasn't  surprising with a sunspot number of zero and the solar flux of 71.

    "But on Sunday 10 meters popped open!

    "I was surprised to find the band open to the Caribbean Sunday morning. ZF1A was coming in with a 559 signal at 1725z. I called a bunch of times, but no contact. I also heard 8P5A in and out of the noise, but no luck in terms of making contact. K0AP, who is also in Kansas, managed to snag ZF1A for his only 10-meter contact in the contest. Dragan runs a Hex Beam antenna and an ACOM amplifier. My 5 watts with the 1/4 wave whip antenna were not enough this time.

    "It was nice to hear some DX signals on 10 meters during the contest. The opening appeared to me to be sporadic-E. F2 propagation on 10 meters is normally loud. These signals were not with considerable fading. The Cayman Islands are also pretty close to Kansas for making direct F2 contacts on 10, but they are within double-hop Es range. Stations within one-hop Es range of the DX stations in the southeast US did much better.

    "After striking out on 10, I dropped down to 15 meters and heard many very loud Central America and Caribbean stations. I worked a very loud V47T at 1829z on 21.026 MHz. This was with the 1/4 wave 10-meter whip and no tuner, so power was probably a watt or so."

    Ken Brown, N4SO reported on February 18: "There is a world-wide group of users of 28 MHz on all modes, found and reported on DXSUMMIT 28 MHZ filtered at this web address: http://www.dxsummit.fi/#/?include=28MHz[2]. I am one of dozens of daily users.

    "I find the band usually opens at approximately 12 Noon locally, 1800 UTC, and closes either before sundown, or near sundown, or 0000 UTC.

    On FT8, for example . . .

    KC3OL  28074.0 N4SO  21:18 17 Feb EM28IX<ES>EM50TK United States

    Yesterday I worked and logged FT8 stations including PU2USK in Brazil, CX4CD in Uruguay, and CA3SOC in Chile. I did not copy or work any CW stations."

    Here is the latest video from WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/uTNlCAkVZJw[3]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for February 13 through 19, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 71.2, 71.3, 70.6, 70.5, 70.7, 71, and 71, with a mean of 70.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 5, 3, 7, 14, and 14, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 1, 3, 4, 2, 5, 11, and 10, with a mean of 5.1.

     


    [1] https://blubrry.com/eclectictech/
    [2] http://www.dxsummit.fi/#/?include=28MHz
    [3] https://youtu.be/uTNlCAkVZJw
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 28 20:07:13 2020
    02/28/2020

    Still no sunspots through all of February, except for the first day of the month. I keep watching for possible sunspot activity over the solar horizon on
     https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[1] . Recently I noticed a promising looking white area, and in the past few days at Spaceeweather.com they pointed out two new regions just over the horizon.

    As of Thursday night, both areas still appear to be transitioning over the horizon at -90 degrees shown on the STEREO monitor at the above URL. But so far nothing in the daily 45 day forecast of solar flux shows any associated increase related to this.

    Average daily solar flux changed slightly from 70.9 to 70.5 over the recent week, and geomagnetic indicators remained quiet.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on February 28 through March 3, and 71 on March 4 through April 12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 28 through March 3, then 12, 12 and 8 on March 4-6, 5 on March 7-14, then 10, 8, 10, 8, 5, 10 and 8 on March 15-21, then 5, 8, 12 and 10 on March 22-25, 5 on March 26-30, then 20, 15 and 8 on March 31 through April 2, then 5 on April 3-12.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 28 to March 25, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on: March 11-14
    quiet to unsettled on: March 1-3, 15, 18, 21, 23-25
    quiet to active on: February (28-29), March 7-10, 19-20, 22
    unsettled to active on: March 4-6, 16-17
    active to disturbed: NONE!

    Solar wind will intensify on: February (28 -29), March 5-7, (17-22).

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Interesting article about the Kodaikanal observatory in India with some nice butterfly diagrams and charts of daily sunspot area: https://bit.ly/39dyFD6[2]

    Next weekend the Apache Point Observatory in Sunspot, New Mexico hosts an open house: https://bit.ly/2I53GwO[3]

    Solar activity and whale navigation: https://bit.ly/2Pw3KtK[4]

    And the New York Times weighs in: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/science/whales-sunspots.html[5]

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, in Easton, Pennsylvania monitors 11 meters for evidence of sporadic-e skip. On Monday, February 24 he reports: "Sporadic-e lasted for nearly three hours from 9:58 AM (1458 UTC) to 12:49 PM (1749 UTC).

    "At first, stations were coming from the west with signals from Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The furthest was a station in Chicago at 650 miles.

    "Half-way into the activity, at around 11:33 am (1633 UTC), sporadic-e changed directions toward the south with signals arriving from Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and Kentucky. The furthest signal during that round came from Jackson, Mississippi at 1013 miles."

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for February 20 through 26, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 71.2, 70.2, 70.1, 70.2, 70.6, and 70.1, with a mean of 70.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 14, 9, 5, 4, 3, and 4, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 10, 7, 4, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 5.

     


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] https://bit.ly/39dyFD6
    [3] https://bit.ly/2I53GwO
    [4] https://bit.ly/2Pw3KtK
    [5] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/science/whales-sunspots.html
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Mar 7 00:26:44 2020
    03/06/2020

    Last week we pointed out in ARLP009 that the NASA STEREO images (at https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[1] ) showed two bright spots, magnetically complex, about to rotate over the sun's eastern horizon and onto the visible solar disc. I was hoping these might develop into sunspots, but they both quickly faded away, so currently we have seen no sunspots in 33 days. Clearly, we are still at solar minimum.

    These STEREO images are always in real time, constantly updated, so they always show a live update of images.

    Over the past week average daily solar flux shifted from 70.5 to 70, average daily planetary A index stayed the same at 6.7, while average daily mid-latitude A index shifted slightly from 5 to 4.6.

    This period of low solar flux and very stable geomagnetic indicators is great for 160-meter propagation, especially now during the winter season, when we enjoy very low atmospheric noise.

    On Thursday, Spaceweather.com reported a faint coronal mass ejection detected by STEREO spacecraft on March 2. This is slow moving and expected to hit Earth on March 7 and is probably why planetary A index is predicted at 8 on March 7-8.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on March 6-13 and 71 on March 14 through April 19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 6 on March 6, 8 on March 7-8, 5 on March 9-14, then 10, 8, 10 and 8 on March 15-18, then 5, 10, 8 and 5 on March 19-22, then 8, 12, and 10 on March 23-25, 5 on March 26-30, then 20, 15 and 8 on March 31 to April 2, and 5 on April 3-19.

    David Moore reports, "space weather model gives earlier warning of satellite-killing radiation storms. Two-day notice lets satellite operators take protective measures against energetic electrons: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200302153600.htm[2]

    A new machine-learning computer model accurately predicts damaging radiation storms caused by the Van Allen belts two days prior to the storm, the most advanced notice to date, according to the new article."

    This reports a new type of solar event, and how it might be used to predict the onset of a new solar cycle: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-1595-3[3]

    N0JK comments: "The VP8PJ DXpedition just went off the air at about 0102z on March 6. The group did an outstanding job being 'available' for contacts despite adverse conditions. They stayed an additional day - March 5. This was fortuitous as VP8PJ enjoyed a great 15-meter opening to North America all afternoon.  This with an SFI of just 70 and the Kp index of 1.

    "As for propagation - from Kansas -  VP8PJ was heard most frequently on 40, 30, and 20 meters. They had a consistent signal on 30 meters. I am sure even low power stations with simple antennas on 30 meters were successful working VP8PJ. I logged them here logged with about 50 W and a 'rain gutter' antenna. They had a good signal on 40 meters, but they were more difficult to work. Twenty meters was the best band to work them on SSB.

    "Seventeen meters and up were more challenging. On my fixed mobile, the 17-meter signal was very weak until March 1. I heard nothing on 15 meters until March 5. Nothing on the higher bands on any day. I noted spots by North American stations for VP8PJ on 10 meters March 1 and 3. VOACAP did not predict any 10-meter propagation to North America for VP8PJ to the Midwest, even for an 'expert DXer'."

    Here is the latest video from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/mJBpFqP5b8k[4]

    This weekend is the phone portion of the ARRL International DX Contest. Check http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[5] for details.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for February 27 through March 4, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.9, 70.6, 70.1, 69.3, 69.3, 70, and 69.8, with a mean of 70. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 11, 8, 5, 6, and 7, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 4, 8, 6, 4, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.6.

     


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200302153600.htm
    [3] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-1595-3
    [4] https://youtu.be/mJBpFqP5b8k
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 13 17:39:47 2020
    03/13/2020

    I felt cheated this week when a much-anticipated sunspot only appeared just briefly, disappearing after two days.

    Sunspot region AR2758 only appeared on March 8-9, with daily sunspot numbers of 13 and 12. Average daily sunspot numbers for the week rose from zero to 3.6, while average daily solar flux increased (minimally) from 70 to 70.2.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 6.7 to 4.4, and average middle latitude A index decreased from 4.6 to 3.6.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on March 13-20, 72 on March 21-22, 70 on March 23 through April 4, 72 on April 5-18, and 70 on April 19-26.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on March 13-26, then 12 and 8 on March 27-28, 5 on March 29 through April 5, then 10 and 8 on April 6-7, 5 on April 8-13, then 8, 12 and 8 on April 14-16, 5 on April 17-22, then 12 and 8 on April 23-24 and 5 on April 25-26.

    The vernal equinox occurs next week, at 0350 UTC on March 20. 2020. This is when the Southern and Northern Hemisphere are bathed in approximately equal doses of solar radiation, and like the autumnal equinox six months later, is considered a good time of year for long distance HF communications.

    I see some new activity over the solar horizon, an active, bright spot, but this time in the Northern Hemisphere: https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[1]

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 13 to April 8, 2020 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on: March 13-14, 23-25, 29-30
    quiet to unsettled on: March 15, 18 (- 21), 26, 28, April 2-7
    quiet to active on: (March 22, 31, April 1, 8)
    unsettled to active on: (March 16-17, 27)
    active to disturbed: None.

    Solar wind will intensify on: March (17-22,) 28, (29-31)

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The predictability of changes remains lower at present.

    Ken, N4SO, reports monitoring NCDXF 15-meter beacons using a half-square antenna. "I heard CS3B on 21.150 MHz. The transmitter is located in Madeira (northwest coast of Africa). Reception was on March 4, 2020 at 1931 and 1934 UTC.

    "The beacons in the NCDXF International Beacon Project broadcast on four different power levels: 100 W, 10 W, 1 W, and 100 mW, giving a very good indication of propagation quality.

    "I heard the very strong CS3B beacon on at least 3 power levels. The last one is uncertain.

    "It's not unusual to hear NCDXF beacons on 3 power levels, if the signal is strong and the frequency is quiet. Other NCDXF beacons heard daily on 21.150 MHZ are OA4B and YV5B with variable signals, or not at all, but often heard approximately at 1900, 2000, or 2100 UTC."

    Steve Gardner, KB1RUV noted strong 15-meter activity into the Caribbean last Saturday.

    A local newspaper article in Duluth about recent sunspot activity: https://bit.ly/339S1Xk[2]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[3].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for March 5 through 11, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 13, 12, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.6. 10.7 cm flux was 69.5, 70, 69.9, 70.2, 70.8, 70.8, and 70.5, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, and 3, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 4, 5, 3, 5, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3.6.

     


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] https://bit.ly/339S1Xk
    [3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 20 18:02:37 2020
    03/20/2020

    On Wednesday, Spaceweather.com reported a new emerging Cycle 25 sunspot in the sun's Northern Hemisphere, but it was not yet numbered. By the next day (yesterday) it had already faded away into nothingness.

    In last week's bulletin we reported sunspots on just two days, March 8 and 9.

    Average daily sunspot number over this reporting week (March 12-18) declined to zero from 3.6, and daily solar flux values barely changed from 70.2 to 70.1. Geomagnetic averages were quiet but higher, with planetary A index changing from 4.4 to 5.9 and middle latitude A index from 3.6 to 4.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 72 on March 20-27, 70 on March 28 until April 4, 72 on April 5-18, 70 on April 19 until May 1, and 72 on May 2-3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on March 20-23, 5 on March 24-27, then 8 on March 28, 5 on March 29 until April 5, then 10 and 8 on April 6-7, 5 on April 8-13, then 8, 12 and 8 on April 14-16, 5 on April 17-22, then 12 and 8 on April 23-24, and 5 on April 25 until May 2 and 10 on May 3.

    We have been looking forward to the vernal equinox, which occurred at 0350 UTC today, March 20. Of course, depending on where you are, the arrival of spring may have been reported as yesterday, but here we are referring to the date as Friday because of UTC. So that is the same as 8:50 PDT or 11:50 EDT on Thursday.

    This is a favorable time for HF propagation, with both the northern and southern hemispheres receiving an approximately equal amount of solar radiation.

    Space.com has some of the finer details on the beginning of spring 2020, and an article about sunspots:

    https://www.space.com/vernal-equinox-2020-earliest-spring-124-years.html[1]

    https://www.space.com/sun-old-faithful-plasma-geyser-sunspot-explanation.html[2 ]

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 20 until April 15, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:
    Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on: April 10
    quiet to unsettled on: March (20-26,) 29-30, April 2-5, 7, 11-13
    quiet to active on: (March 28, 31, April 1, 6, 8-9)
    unsettled to active on: (March 27, April 14-15)
    active to disturbed: never

    Solar wind will intensify on: March 28, (29-31, April 9, 13)

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

    A couple of resources I am finding useful for real time reporting of propagation on various bands, modes and times, from 24 hours ago until present time:

    https://pskreporter.info/[3]

    https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[4]

    The latest video from Dr. Skov: https://youtu.be/oNfOxlROKko[5]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for March 12 through 18, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.9, 68.8, 68.1, 70.2, 69.8, 71.6, and 72, with a mean of 70.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 3, 5, 7, 6, and 6, with a mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 7, 6, 2, 3, 3, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.1.

     


    [1] https://www.space.com/vernal-equinox-2020-earliest-spring-124-years.html [2] https://www.space.com/sun-old-faithful-plasma-geyser-sunspot-explanation.html
    [3] https://pskreporter.info/
    [4] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [5] https://youtu.be/oNfOxlROKko
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 27 14:29:26 2020
    03/27/2020

    We saw another week with no sunspots, which were last observed just briefly over two weeks ago on two days, March 8-9. Spaceweather.com reports that so far in 2020, the percentage of days that have no sunspots is the same as all of 2019, when it was 77%.

    Last week we saw the spring equinox, always a good seasonal indicator for better HF propagation.

    Last week's bulletin ARLP012 reported the average daily solar flux at 70.1. This reporting week is just one point higher on average, at 71.1.

    Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet, with average planetary A index at 7.7, a little higher than the previous week's average, which was 5.9. Average mid-latitude A index was also 5.9, up from 4.1 last week.

    This point in the solar cycle is a great time for 160-meter propagation because of quiet geomagnetic conditions, although as the seasons change, we no longer enjoy those long winter nights, and will eventually see the return of summer conditions with increased atmospheric noise.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 71 on March 27 through April 3, 70 on April 4, 72 on April 5-18, 70 on April 19 through May 1, and 72 on May 2-10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on March 27-29, 12 on March 30-31, 8 on April 1-3, 5 on April 4-5, then 10 and 8 on April 6-7, 5 on April 8-13, then 8, 12 and 8 on April 14-16, 5 on April 17-22, then 12 and 8 on April 23-24, 5 on April 25 through May 2, 10 and 8 on May 3-4, and 5 on May 5-10.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 27 until April 22, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group, who has been compiling this report for the past 42 years.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on: April 10
    quiet to unsettled on: March 30, April 2-3, 7, 11-13, 20
    quiet to active on: (March 27-29,) 31, April 1, (4-6, 8-9, 16-19)
    unsettled to active on: (April 14-15, 21-22)
    active to disturbed: None

    Solar wind will intensify on: March (28-31), April (1-6,) 9, 12-13, (15,) 16-19, (20)

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indicators.
     
    This is probably unrelated, but I happened across this video of OK1HH, with CW on the soundtrack: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cut9P0MYAzU[1]

    Chip, K7JA, reports from his shack in Garden Grove, California. "Between 0238 and 0338 UTC on March 23 (the evening of March 22 Pacific Time, 1938-2038 local), I worked 3D2AG, VK4WDM, JR6EZE, and KH6U on 28 MHz FT8. Several other Australian and Japanese stations were heard at the same time. 3D2AG was loud enough to have been a solid almost-local-sounding contact on FM!

    "In the same time frame but extending later in the evening (until 0410 UTC or 9:10 PM local), 15 meters was alive with Asian and Pacific stations including Hong Kong, China, Japan, Indonesia, and even JD1BHA on Ogasawara Island.

    "Twenty meters was open to the Pacific and South America until almost midnight local time.

    "It's fun to catch these little "tidbit" openings; they give hope for better propagation ahead! Hope all is well--stay away from the corona bugs!"

    Corona Bugs? Weren't they a brand of semi-automatic keys? https://binged.it/2Jix2Zl[2]

    Here is the latest from WX6SWW, who sees evidence that our Sun continues to wake up: https://youtu.be/zJv8fQFb4-g[3]

    Upcoming, this weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX Contest, SSB: https://cqwpx.com/[4]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning radio propagation,
    see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for March 19 through 25, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 72.1, 71.7, 70.8, 70.2, 70.4, 71.2, and 71.2, with a mean of 71.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 7, 8, 7, 12, 4, and 4, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 5, 5, 7, 10, 4, and 3, with a mean of 5.9.

     


    [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cut9P0MYAzU
    [2] https://binged.it/2Jix2Zl
    [3] https://youtu.be/zJv8fQFb4-g
    [4] https://cqwpx.com/
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 3 15:50:56 2020
    04/03/2020

    A new sunspot appeared on the last day in March and the first days of April, with daily sunspot numbers of 12, 13 and 12. Total sunspot area increased on each day from 10 to 20 to 30 millionths of a solar hemisphere.

    Fortunately, this was a Cycle 25 spot, according to the magnetic signature.

    Prior to this no sunspots were seen since earlier in March, when daily sunspot numbers were 13 and 12 on March 8-9.

    Average daily solar flux this week (March 26 through April 1) declined from 71.1 to 69.4. Average daily geomagnetic indicators were identical to the previous week, with planetary A index at 7.7 and middle latitude A index at 5.9.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on April 3-22, then 68 on April 23 to May 7, and 70 on May 8-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on April 3, 5 on April 4-14, 10 on April 15, 8 on April 16-19, 5 on April 20-25, 12 on April 26-27, 8 on April 28-29, 5 on April 30 through May 11, 10 on May 12, 8 on May 13-16 and 5 on May 17.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 3-29, 2020 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on: April 6-7, 10, 20-21
    quiet to unsettled on: April 3-5, 11-13, 24, 28-29
    quiet to active on: April (8-9, 25)
    unsettled to active on: (April 14-19, 22-23,) 26-27
    active to disturbed: none predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on April 9, 12-13, (15-16,) 17-19, (20,) 26-28

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

    Chip, K7JA, reports, "The late afternoon of March 31, 2020 brought a 6-meter opening to the southern half of California, as well as states to the east. Here in DM03, south of Los Angeles, I worked Dale, CE2SV, on FT8 at 2325 UTC, followed by CE3BN, XQ3MCC, and XQ3SK/4. I worked CE2SV on CW at 0002 UTC (1 April), and several other CE and LU stations were heard but not worked, along with HC2GR. Flags from PSKReporter indicate that I was heard by a total of seven CE stations, plus LU9FVS.

    "Because we are so far north (geomagnetically), I suspect this may well have been an E-to-TEP path. Stations as far north as the San Francisco Bay area got in on the opening, as well.

    "There was no activity on the afternoon of April 1, but you can bet the entire West Coast is watching.

    "I run about 180 W from a Kenwood TS-990 transceiver to a 7-element LFA (Loop Fed Array) about 72 feet high."

    Jon Jones, N0JK, commented. "Remarkable results with a solar flux of only 69."

    Here is some information about the LFA Yagi: https://www.innovantennas.com/en/lfa-benefits[1]

    N0JK also reported, "Sporadic-E propagation appeared on 50 MHz on  the afternoon of March 28 from Kansas to Florida. I worked NORW in grid EL87 on 6-meter FT8 at 2242z. I decoded WB4JPG (EM71) but no contact.

    "KFOM in Wichita, Kansas (EM17) also made several 6-meter Es contacts with Florida stations including K3VN. He copied W5LDA (EM15) working CO3JR (EL83) at 2355z on FT8.

    "Sporadic-E is rare in March. The month of March has the lowest occurrence of sporadic-E of any month for the northern hemisphere."

    WB5AGZ reported from Stillwater, Oklahoma: "I have been hearing what I believe to be Sporadic E almost every afternoon since about last Sunday, March 29. It is weak but certainly present with long slow fades.

    "The first evidence was a few seconds during the afternoon of March 29 with a repeater system in North Carolina. The opening was never long enough to pick out a complete call sign, but one could hear parts of the repeater's voice ID.

    "The exact time is not known because this is a recording made over many hours from a scanner connected to a computer running software that makes a VOX-style sound recording without individual time stamps.

    "It is now Thursday, April 2, and a playback from Wednesday picked up a long conversation between two amateurs using the KQ2H system in the New York City area.

    "Signals were just strong enough to mostly copy with very long periods in which it sounded like a system in a town almost out of range coming via ground wave propagation. The signal would then fade and return.

    "A recorded female voice announced the time as 7:15, which is as close to a time stamp as I have. In the Central Daylight time zone, this would have been 18:15 or 23:15 UTC. My antenna is a discone about 50 feet above ground, feeding a Uniden BCD996XT scanner monitoring 6 and 10 meters."


    Space.com offers a solar cycle observation: https://www.space.com/new-solar-cycle-starting-any-day-now.html[2]

    Ken, N4SO, reports from Alabama, "This late night propagation is now setting a pattern.

    Mode: FT8, Frequency 21.074 MHZ

    March 31    12:27 AM local start time, ending 12:30 AM local
    (the four digits on the left are UTC)

    The stations are in Australia and New Zealand

    052730 -14  0.2 1196 ~  VR2XYL ZM3SSB RE66
    052800 -16  0.2 1196 ~  VR2XYL ZM3SSB RE66
    052830 -16  0.2 1195 ~  VR2XYL ZM3SSB RE66
    053000 -16  0.2 1196 ~  VR2XYL ZM3SSB RE66
    The radio is often left on to monitor the frequency 21.074 MHz"

    You can use PSKReporter to see what Ken is currently hearing. Go
    to https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[3] and select 15 meters and signals received by N4SO using FT8.

    KA3JAW monitors 11 meters and made this report of a sporadic-E opening: "On Tuesday, March 31, 2020, eleven days after the passing of the spring equinox (March 20), unexpected visitors waved their hands on the 11 meter band for attention for six straight hours.

    "At 4:37 pm local (ET) Mid-Atlantic states noticed sporadic-e signals originating from the southeastern states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia.

    "One hour later, I heard signals from Tennessee, Arkansas, and Texas. By the 9 o'clock hour, the propagation was slowly degenerating and by 10:30, it had disappeared.

    The last time an event like this took place, was on February 24 from 9:58 am to 12:49 pm local time (ET)."

    Thanks to Don Wright, AA2F, for catching an error in the earlier version of this bulletin in the ARRL Letter, in which I neglected to update the solar flux and sunspot number averages from last week's numbers. One thing that contributed to the confusion was the fact that the averages for the geomagnetic indices were exactly the same as the previous week's data.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for March 26 through April 1, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 13, with a mean of 3.6. 10.7 cm flux was 70.2, 69.4, 69.2, 68.8, 69.3, 69.9, and 69.2, with a mean of 69.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 5, 7, 11, 15, and 6, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 4, with a mean of 5.9.

     


    [1] https://www.innovantennas.com/en/lfa-benefits
    [2] https://www.space.com/new-solar-cycle-starting-any-day-now.html
    [3] https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 10 15:10:41 2020
    04/10/2020

    After five days of new Cycle 25 sunspot activity, sunspots vanished. Average daily sunspot number rose from 3.6 last week to 5.1 this time. The average daily sunspot number over the days they were visible, March 31 through April 4, was 12.2, but these observations straddled two reporting weeks.

    Average daily solar flux rose from 69.4 to 70.2. Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet, with average planetary A index declining from 7.7 to 6.6, and average mid-latitude A index slipping from 5.9 to 5.3.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on April 10-13, 68 on April 14-23, 70 on April 24 through May 7, 68 on May 8-20, and 70 on May 21-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on April 10-11, 5 on April 12-14, 10 on April 15, 8 on April 16-19, 5 on April 20-25, 10 on April 26-27, 5 on April 28 through May 6, 8 on May 7-8, 5 on May 9-11, 10 on May 12, 8 on May 13-16, 5 on May 17-22 and 10 on May 23.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, wrote:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 9-May 5, 2020

    Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on: April 10, 20-21, May 2-3
    quiet to unsettled on: April 11-13, 17-18, 22-24, 28-29
    quiet to active on: (April 9, 14, 16, 25, May 1)
    unsettled to active on: (April 15, 19, 26-27, 30, May 4-5)
    active to disturbed:- nothing predicted
    Solar wind will intensify on: April 9, 12-13, (15-16,) 17-19, (20,) 26-28, May 4-6
    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications."





    In her latest video, Dr Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, is excited about signs of Cycle 25: https://youtu.be/UKsPSnSZers[1]

    Frank Donovan, W3LPL sent this out to the Potomac Valley Radio Club yesterday, and shared it with us for this bulletin: "Some of us have noticed a slight uptick in solar activity since Christmas Day when two Cycle 25 spots -- AR 2753 and AR 2754 -- appeared.
    Only one of the five subsequent sunspots -- AR 2757 --  has been from old Cycle 24.  All of the sunspots over the last 12 months have been relatively weak and have had little effect on propagation.
    "Although the beginning of Cycle 25 won't be officially declared until late this year, its highly likely that it began on Christmas Day 2019. The next important event to look for is a strong Cycle 25 sunspot, hopefully that will occur this year."
    Two relevant links: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2515-5172/ab79a1[2]

    https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/welcome-cycle-25-a-new-solar-magnetic-cycle-has-b egun[3]

    Jon Jones, N0JK, wrote yesterday: "With the early start to the summer sporadic-E season, some Es are linking from North  America to South America.

    "On April 9, LU9FF and LU9FVS spotted K4CVL on 50.313 MHz FT8 at 2230z. K4TR and NN4X in South Florida spotted stations in Chile. Signals were strong enough for SSB with AC4TO EM70 working CA3SOC and LU8YD on 50.110 MHz SSB at 2224z.

    "KN4NN, AA5AU and N0FW (EM79) Ohio were also making FT8 contacts with South America on 6 meters."
     
    KA3JAW monitors 11 meters, (that's right, Citizens Band) for interesting propagation events from Easton, PA (FN20jq): "Sporadic-E was up on eleven meters on Tuesday, April 7 from 6:45 until 11:00 pm local (ET).

    "During this event, the Es funnel path coned me stations only from the coastal Gulf of Mexico states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama.

    "I find it somewhat strange that Es remains active up till late nightly hours during the opening of Spring season.

    "I thought Tuesday, March 31 was a good DX day monitoring the 11-meter band with reception of Tyler, Texas at 1,254 miles.

    "But today, Saturday, April 4 was way more exciting with reception of multiple Puerto Rican stations rolling-in from 6:42 pm local (ET) until 8:00 pm that were 374+ miles further in range.

    "One operator there was making greater than 1,600 miles contacts from West Virginia up into Rhode Island.

    "At around local sunset at 7:29 pm the baseline background noise level environment  jumped 30 dB when one particular operator running high power would key the microphone.

    "Puerto Rican operators would occasionally peak 20 dB over local operators.

    "The distance from my home to San Juan, Puerto Rico runs 1,628 miles. This would be at the far end range of a single-hop sporadic-e path. Perhaps the ion cloud was tilted a few degrees from horizon."

     

    Your author has been using the FT8 mode with WSJT-X software to observe marginal propagation modes, in which communication occurs due to refraction via whispery ionized clouds. Using low power and a deliberately marginal antenna (short piece of wire, thrown out the basement window, never more than 4 feet above ground) I can immediately see signal reports from many stations
    via https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[4]. Some of the results on 160 through 10 meters seem quite remarkable, considering the antenna and power level.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning radio propagation,
    see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for April 2 through 8, 2020 were 12, 13, 11, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 5.1. 10.7 cm flux was 69.8, 69.9, 70.1, 71.2, 69.9, 69.9, and 70.4, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 9, 5, 5, 3, 4, and 13, with a mean of 6.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 4, 4, 2, 3, and 10, with a mean of 5.3.

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/UKsPSnSZers
    [2] https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2515-5172/ab79a1
    [3] https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/welcome-cycle-25-a-new-solar-magnetic-cycle-has-begun
    [4] https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 24 14:49:52 2020
    04/24/2020

    The last day with a visible sunspot was April 4.

    Over the past reporting week, April 16-22, average daily solar flux was 69, down a half point from the previous week, when the average was 69.5.

    Average daily planetary A index was 7.3 while mid-latitude A index was 7. This was up from 6.1 and 5, mainly due to the first geomagnetic storm of 2020, which pushed planetary A index to 18 on April 19. That event bumped up the average.

    Solar flux numbers have been soft of late, with averages over recent weeks of 71.1, 69.4, 70.2, 69.5 and now 69. Lower solar flux probably means less radiation that might excite the ionosphere.

    Predicted solar flux is 71 on April 24-30 and 69 on May 1 through June 7. The April 23 forecast shows predicted solar flux at 96 on May 12, but we've seen this error once in the past. The digits were transposed. In fact, I won't even notify NOAA. It will be fun to see how long it takes for anyone to notice.

    The predicted planetary A index is forecast at 5 on April 24-29, 8 on April 30, 5 on May 1-4, 12 on May 5, 5 on May 6-16, then 12, 10, 8 and 10 on May 17-20, 5 on May 21-23, then 10, 5, 5 and 8 on May 24-27, 5 on May 28-31, 12 on June 1, and 5 on June 2-7.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 24-May 19, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:
    Quiet on: May 1-3, 6, 13-15, 19
    Quiet to unsettled on: April 24, 28, 30. May 18
    Quiet to active on: (April 25,"27, May 5, 7-9, 12, 17)
    Unsettled to active on: (April 26, 29, May 4, 10-11, 16)
    Active to disturbed: nothing expected

    Solar wind will intensify on April 17-19, (20,) 26-28, May 4-6, 8-10

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

    Frank, W3LPL alerted us to an updated Cycle 25 prediction: "Early this month SWPC published their official updated prediction of Solar Cycle 25 in a new user-interactive graph format. Their updated prediction is based on the results of NOAA's Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. See www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[1].

    "SWPC forecasts a solar maximum between 105 and 125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.  There is broad consensus that Solar Minimum is ongoing this year -- or may have already occurred --  and that Cycle 25 will have no major change in the level of solar activity compared to Cycle 24.

    "For many years SWPC's solar cycle predictions have used the Royal Observatory of Belgium's International Sunspot Number. SWPC's official solar cycle prediction now uses the SWPC sunspot number. The International Sunspot Number is typically about one third lower than the SWPC sunspot number.

    "While this is SWPC's official Cycle 25 prediction, it's important to note there is still divergence among various forecasting methods and members of the space weather forecasting community. Most forecasts and forecasters agree that the Cycle 25 peak is likely to be within plus or minus 20 percent of Cycle 24 and is likely to occur between 2024 and 2027. Also see link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z/tables/2[2]."


    N0JK reported from Kansas: "I had sporadic-E on 50 MHz April 21. From 1900-2100z stations in Florida were coming in well. I made about a dozen contacts on FT8. Also decoded CO8LY FL20 calling CQ. Then I saw on the PSKReporter site that two Kansas stations copied HC5VF in Ecuador on 6 Meter FT8 around 2310z. This was likely via multi-hop sporadic-E."

    Dr Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a new video report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmfS7P1pJMQ[3]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning radio propagation,
    see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for April 16 through 22, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.5, 67.9, 69.8, 68.6, 68.2, 69.1, and 70.7, with a mean of 69. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 3, 18, 9, and 8, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 2, 16, 8, and 10, with a mean of 7.

     

     


    [1] http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
    [2] http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z/tables/2
    [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmfS7P1pJMQ
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 1 16:15:11 2020
    05/01/2020

    There were several sunspot appearances this week. Sunspot numbers on April 25-29 were 11, 14, 12, 0 and 24, giving a weekly average of 8.7. Average daily solar flux changed from 69 to 69.2.

    Geomagnetic activity remains quiet, with average daily planetary A index declining from 7.3 to 5.6.

    On Thursday, new sunspot activity continued, with the daily sunspot number for April 30 at 35, and the total sunspot area four times what it was on April 25-27. This new activity is both encouraging and exciting.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on May 1-5, 69 on May 6-16, 70 on May 17-31, 69 on June 1-12, and 70 on June 13-14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 1-2, then 8, 8, 10 and 8 on May 3-6, 5 on May 7-17, then 10 and 8 on May 18-19, 5 on May 20-23, 8 on May 24-27, 5 on May 28-31, 12 on June 1, 5 on June 2-13, and 10 on June 14.


    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 1-26, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: May 2-3, 13-14, 26
    Quiet to unsettled on: May 1, 6-8, 15-16, 25
    Quiet to active on: (May 4, 9-10, 17, 20, 22, 24)
    Unsettled to active on: May 5, (11-12, 18-19, 21, 23)
    Active to disturbed: None predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on: May (4,) 5-6, (11-12,) (18-21, 23,) 24

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

    Michael Guerin, W6MVT, of Upland, California wrote: "The evening of 27 April 2020 was an odd one for those of us in Southern California. After the end of the Florida QSO Party 20 meters became quiet here. Yet in the evening around 0300 UTC the only three signals heard were there ZL1s - ANH, BD and WN. Each courteously received each of us and we enjoyed clear (uncontested) time with our neighbors to the southwest. It was like having an exclusive pipeline. Nice change."

    KB1DK from Trumbull, Connecticut wrote: "On Saturday morning April 25th between 1350-1430z, I listened to YB0AZ and YB0IBM working stations in the Midwest on 14.190 and 14.210, respectively. Both stations were armchair copy, S8 to S9 on an inverted vee OCFD antenna. Those lucky enough to work YB0IBM also got to contact his friends YB1DNF and HS0ZOA. YB0AZ said that it has been nearly a year since he worked stateside stations. Nothing was heard this morning (4/26). I did not contact either station.

    "On 17 meters, ZL1WN is a regular on 18.150 to 18.160 between 2100 and 2130z. I have been hearing Ross on most afternoons with a strong S8 to S9 signal though the fading can get pretty bad."


    I think it is interesting that YB0AZ says it has been nearly a year since he last worked USA stations. He should be hearing from North America more often as the sunspot cycle picks up.

    Sean, K8KHZ, wrote: "Forty meters was great on April 18 at 0100z. I was able to work EA8BWW Canary Islands. I used a low-height inverted G5RV antenna with just 100 watts on SSB. I was surprised the band was open."


    Be sure to check the current issue of ARRL Letter for comments by K9LA on differences between historic sunspot numbers. The link
    is http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2020-04-30[1] .

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[2].

    For more information concerning radio propagation,
    see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for April 23 through 29, 2020 were 0, 0, 11, 14, 12, 0, and 24, with a mean of 8.7. 10.7 cm flux was 68.7, 69.7, 68.9, 69.2, 69, 69, and 69.9, with a mean of 69.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 5, 6, 7, 6, and 3, with a mean of 5.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 6, 5, 5, 6, 6, and 4, with a mean of 5.1.


    [1] http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2020-04-30
    [2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 8 14:33:29 2020
    05/08/2020

    We haven't seen a sunspot since Thursday, April 30 when the daily sunspot number was 35. This is a relatively high sunspot number based on recent activity, although not historically. In fact, the daily sunspot number has not been as high since March 21, 2019 when it was 49, and prior to that we need to look back further to the previous year, when the daily sunspot number was 41 on June 22, 2018, to find a sunspot number that was as high.

    This, and the fact that last week's sunspots showed the new Cycle 25 polarity gives me reason for optimism. I expect solar activity to increase and along with it, the outlook for better HF propagation. Another reason for my optimism is that new sunspot cycles increase at a faster rate than they decline after an activity peak has passed.

    That peak of sunspot Cycle 25 is expected around July 2025, +/- 8 months, according to the latest forecast from the NOAA/NASA International Solar Cycle Prediction Panel.

    Average daily sunspot number for last week was 5, down from 8.7 the previous seven days. The average daily solar flux rose from 69.2 to 69.5.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 5.6 to 5.1, and average middle latitude A index slipped from 5.1 to 5.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70, every day, May 8 until June 21. In fact, that outlook for a continuous 45-day stretch of solar flux at 70 has been the same since the May 3 prediction.

    The predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 8-11, 8 on May 12, 5 on May 13-17, then 10 and 8 on May 18-19, 5 on May 20-23, 8 on May 24-27, 5 on May 28-30, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 31 through June 2, 5 on June 3-13, 10 and 8 on June 14-15, and 5 on June 16-21.

    There you have it, a nice steady solar flux above the sixties for the next month and a half, and stable geomagnetic conditions too.

    On Thursday, May 7, Spaceweather.com reported an incoming solar wind expected to graze our magnetic field on May 10, "causing geomagnetic unrest at high latitudes." Note that our planetary A index forecast above does not show an increase until May 12.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 8 until June 2, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be

    quiet on: May 13, 26, June 2

    quiet to unsettled on: May 8, 16, 25, 27-31

    quiet to active on: (May 9, 11-12, 14-15, 20-22, 24, June 1)

    unsettled to active on: (May 10, 17-19, 23)

    active to disturbed:  nothing expected

    Solar wind will intensify on: May (11-12,) (18-21, 23,) 24

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK, reported on May 6: "I was active on 50 MHz during the Eta Aquarid meteor shower on May 5. I worked W4IMD EM84 on 6 meters via meteor scatter using the digital MSK144 mode at 1205 UTC. As W4IMD sent 73, I copied a CQ from Larry Lambert, N0LL, who was portable in rare grid DN90. I called Larry, he copied me, but we did not complete a contact.

    "I decoded several other stations including N4QWZ, AI5I, K0TPP, KE5Q, and WA4CQG on meteor scatter."

     

    Check https://bit.ly/3fwUP6P[1] for a dramatic video from Space.com showing images of all daily earth-facing sunspot activity over seven years, including approximately 93 solar rotations, compressed into 200 seconds.

     

    Frank Donovan, W3LPL, sent this fascinating information on Earth's three north poles. "BBC's article this week 'Scientists Explain Magnetic Pole's Wanderings' has attracted the interest of radio amateurs interested in ionospheric propagation. 

    "Unless you've studied geomagnetic physics, you probably never learned -- or even heard -- that the Earth has three north poles. The BBC article describes the poles very well but does not address the relationship between the poles and ionospheric propagation.

    "The geographic north pole is where the Earth's rotation axis intersects the Earth's surface in the northern hemisphere. It affects ionospheric propagation because the orientation of Earth's tilted axis to the Sun varies with the seasons and determines our daylight/darkness cycles throughout the year.

    "While the magnetic north pole -- the focus of the BBC article -- is important to navigation systems, it has no significance to ionospheric propagation. Most of us learned about the magnetic north pole when we learned how to use a compass, it is in the northern hemisphere where the Earth's magnetic field lines are measured to be exactly perpendicular to the Earth's surface. Its position has been drifting about 50-60 km per year for about the last forty years.

    "The geomagnetic north pole -- only briefly described in the BBC article -- is particularly important to ionospheric propagation and many other aspects of the Earth's space environment. It is the intersection of the Earth's surface in the northern hemisphere and the axis of a bar magnet hypothetically placed at the center the Earth. It is significant for ionospheric propagation because it determines the position of the geomagnetic field in the Earth's space environment including -- very importantly --its ionosphere. The geomagnetic field very profoundly affects ionospheric propagation. The geomagnetic north pole drifts only about one km. per year, a tiny fraction of the movement of the magnetic north pole described in the BBC article. See https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/ news/624/cpsprodpb/13DC2/production/_112164318_new-nc.png[2].

    "As an aside, while the magnetic north pole is drifting fairly rapidly, the magnetic south pole is drifting very little at all."

     

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[3].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

    Sunspot numbers for April 30 through May 6, 2020 were 35, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 5. 10.7 cm flux was 69.8, 70.2, 69.2, 68.7, 69.3, 69.3, and 69.8, with a mean of 69.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 6, 5, 5, 6, 6, and 6, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 1, 5, 3, 5, 8, 7, and 6, with a mean of 5.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3fwUP6P
    [2] https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/13DC2/production/_112164318_new-nc.png
    [3] k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 15 18:01:59 2020
    05/15/2020

    No sunspots appeared last week. The previous seven days had only one big sunspot group on one day, with a sunspot number of 35. Over the seven-day period this averaged out to a sunspot number of 5, so average daily sunspot numbers declined from 5 to 0 this week.

    Average daily solar flux also declined, by one point from 69.5 to 68.5.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A index declining from 5.1 to 4.1, and mid-latitude A index from 5 to 4.7.

    Spaceweather.com reports that the percentage of days with no sunspots so far in 2020 (76%) is close to 2019 (77%).

    Every day I look at STEREO https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[1]to see if there are any hints of activity over the horizon. Each 30-degree division on that display represents about 55 hours, and currently on May 14 I see a bright possibly active area about 30 degrees over the solar horizon.

    Predicted solar flux is 68 on May 15-21, 69 on May 22, 70 on May 23-31, 68 on June 1-13, 70 on June 14-27 and 68 on June 28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 15-18, 8 on May 19-20, 5 on May 21 to June 8, 8 on June 9-10, 5 on June 11-13, then 10 and 8 on June 14-15, and 5 on June 16-28.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 15 until June 9, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be

    quiet on: May 26, June 2-5

    quiet to unsettled on: May 16, 25, 27-31

    quiet to active on: (May 15, 20-22, 24, June 1, 6-8)

    unsettled to active on: (May 17-19, 23)

    active to disturbed: no disturbances predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on: May (18-21, 23,) 24, June (6-7)

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indicators.

     

    I've recently noticed that even with very little sunspot activity, there is plenty of activity on the air. Checking FT8 communications on https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[2] I can see lots of weak signal communication over marginal paths, even on 12, 10, and 6 meters. I also get reports from readers, and see reports on a local DXer email list, and everyone seems more active of late.

    I suspect much of this activity is related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the great number of operators isolating at home.

    The May 7 ARRL Eclectic Tech podcast (listen at https://bit.ly/2zCjRRu[3]) features a story (starting at minute 10:57) about a medical research project using distributed computing employing idle microprocessor cycles in volunteer's personal computers to aid in medical research. Called Folding at Home (https://foldingathome.org/start-folding/[4]) participants can form teams to do the work, and keep score. It has recently been re-positioned to aid research on COVID-19.

    Twenty years ago, I started a folding team, dedicated to the memory of the former holder of my call sign, K7RA. You can view the stats on our team at https://stats.foldingathome.org/team/10566[5]. If you can join us, download the software from https://foldingathome.org/[6] and during installation please dedicate your work to team number 10566.

     

    I was aware of the Carrington Event (see https://bit.ly/35YRadA[7]), the huge solar storm of 1859, but there was another big one, 99 years ago this week, that also set fire to telegraph offices and caused general mayhem. See https://bit.ly/3fVaywK[8] and https://bit.ly/2Z5muG3[9].

     

    Ken Brown, N4SO, (EM50) in Grand Bay, Alabama reports unusual 15-meter propagation at an odd time, after midnight where he is. On May 11, using FT8 he heard VE7SKY (CN89) at 0602 UTC and then 8C2WFH, (OI53) in Indonesia at 0649 UTC.

     

    Mark Bell, K3MSB, of Airville, Pennsylvania wrote on May 8: "Ten meters has been open the past few days. I've worked stations in Texas and California on Thursday May 7, and stations in Minnesota and Washington on May 8, using CW and 100 watts. It was classic Es propagation. I had no RBN reports for the 7th, but nice ones on the 8th. Several other stations were calling me on the 8th, but I was unable to work them."

    On May 11 Mark wrote: "Here's an update to my update. Between May 7-10, I worked 10 states on 10-meter CW. Single hop sporadic-E into Texas, Minnesota, Florida, Tennessee, Missouri, Louisiana, and Wisconsin, and double hop into California, Washington, and Idaho - all on CW. I heard quite a few more stations calling me, but I was unable to work them."

    Marked mentioned RBN - the Reverse Beacon Network. To learn more, see http://www.reversebeacon.net/[10].

     

    Jon Jones, N0JK, wrote from Kansas: "Es on May 11. Caught J68HZ (St. Lucia) on 50.313 MHz at 2345z on double-hop Es. My report was -24 dB! So far, no major openings like on April 15, but the Es season is starting to pick up."

     

    Danny Miller, KB8W, wrote: "There was a nice Es opening on 6 meters during the afternoon and evening of May 8 from my Upper Peninsula home (EN57) to Idaho, western Montana, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Es is common in the central US during the summer months, but it is early to have it happen so far north. The Es cloud appeared to be over North and South Dakota.

    "I worked 12 stations over about ten hours, using FT8 on 50.313 MHz. I run only 50 W to a 5 element Yagi on 6 meters, so it is great to have some extended propagation to help me work those western grid squares!"

     

    K0ZN wrote from De Soto, Kansas: "May 7 had some exceptional HF conditions. I have not heard things this good in several years. What got my attention was when I turned the radio on at about 11 PM, WWV was pounding in at 35 dB over S-9 on 10 and 15 MHz and S-9 on 20 and S-7 on 25 MHz here in Kansas City; that is only a 550 mile path, quite short for 20 and 25 MHz at that time. I got on 10 meters and heard strong west coast signals and worked a Hawaiian running 30 W to a vertical with good signals both ways. The impressive thing was hearing a Russian who was S-9 working a Polish station! Thirty meters was clearly wide open to a large part of the world....at midnight CST. One can only hope this is an omen of better things coming on HF."

     

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[11].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[17].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18].

    Sunspot numbers for May 7 through 13, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.7, 67.9, 71, 67.9, 66.2, 68.9, and 68.8, with a mean of 68.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 5, 5, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 3, 5, 7, 5, and 4, with a mean of 4.7.

     

     


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [3] https://bit.ly/2zCjRRu
    [4] https://foldingathome.org/start-folding/
    [5] https://stats.foldingathome.org/team/10566
    [6] https://foldingathome.org/
    [7] https://bit.ly/35YRadA
    [8] https://bit.ly/3fVaywK
    [9] https://bit.ly/2Z5muG3
    [10] http://www.reversebeacon.net/
    [11] k7ra@arrl.net
    [12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] http://k9la.us/
    [17] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 22 16:20:03 2020
    05/22/2020

    Still no sunspots to report. Spaceweather.com reported on May 20 that the current stretch of days with no sunspots has now reached 18. And with that the 2020 percentage of days with no sunspots has risen to 77%, equal to 2019. Until May 15 that statistic stood at 76%.

    Average daily solar flux for the week rose to 69, marginally higher than last week's average of 68.5. Average planetary A index declined from 4.1 to 3.7, while average mid-latitude A index shifted from 4.7 to 4.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70, every day from May 22 through July 5. Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 22 until June 14, 8 on June 15-16, and 5 on June 17 through July 5.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 22 until June 16, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be

    quiet on: May 25-31, June 2-5, 9-13

    quiet to unsettled on: May 22-24, June 14

    quiet to active on: (June 1, 6-8, 15-16)

    unsettled to active on: - none predicted!

    active to disturbed: - none predicted!

    Solar wind will intensify on: May (23,) 24, June (6-7)

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indicators.

     

    Scotty, W7PSK, in Everett, Washington wrote on May 21, "Six-meter E Skip for me blew open with a bang. I've rarely heard USA stations as it is on 6 since I've been on it (about 3 years). I was just on and with my pipsqueak station (SteppIR 3-element beam with a 4th passive element). I just worked J68, KP4 and FG8."

     

    AA8WH reports from Dearborn Heights, Michigan, "I been listening over the last few days. Yesterday, May 20, 6 meters has been open at various times all day. Sometimes, FT8 would be up, stay up for a while, then a few minutes later would fade back into the noise.

    "I figured that must've been sporadic E. I went down to 10 meters and it was quiet, but 12 meters was open, as was 15. Seventeen and 20 meters were hopping most of the day. I was able to hear the W1AW broadcasts up to 15 meters and sometimes even 10 meters."

     

    Dave, W5BU, reported on May 16, "Yesterday, here in central Texas (EM11), 6 meters was really booming, and the waterfall was filled with signals. Most of the signals were within the continental US and down south into Mexico and Caribbean. I quickly fired up the rig and amp and proceeded to work almost 20 new grids and six new grids in Mexico. The most notable contact was with XCE2IF at the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Sur Peninsula (Cabo San Lucas). Additionally, there were multiple contacts into Canada. The amp was needed to complete the contact with the Baja station as he must have had difficulty in copying my signals. I kept hoping that the propagation would extend into Hawaii/Alaska, but no such luck.

    "My present antenna is a US Army OE-254 bi-conical vertical at 30 feet as

    my 4-element loop-fed Yagi is still waiting for a tower climber for

    installation on my tower. My goal is the Worked All States award on six meters, but I am presently stuck at 39 states and six countries confirmed with my modest antenna setup. I pulled the plug about 9:30PM local time and uploaded my log."

     

    It is nice to read a good science-based article about solar activity in the popular press. I subscribe to a service that sends me every news article that mentions "sunspot", and some of them are quite bad, and not exactly fact based. The worst offenders in my opinion are the British tabloids. But this article is a good one: https://bit.ly/36lXID1[1]

     

    Jeff, N8II, in West Virginia reported on May 18, "The last week has been amazing for 28 MHz Es with multi hop openings to Europe, Africa the Caribbean, South America, Central American, Mexico, California, and Colorado from here!

    "The first opening I noticed was May 8 on 10-meter SSB into Pensacola, Florida, and to KP3JL in Puerto Rico at about 1520Z. Then, on the evening of May 9, I worked HI8AT and HI8RD in the Dominican Republic, KP4TF and WP4IRV in Puerto Rico, and all with signals well over S9 on SSB except Iceland on CW. It sounded more like F2, although that's impossible with our very low SFI. On May 11 there was a good opening to the southern and southwest US from 2227-2300Z. At 2339Z, FG4SO in Guadeloupe was an easy contact on SSB; he was S7 here. Then, I worked WP4OCB and KP3JL, then TI2GBB, Costa Rica, and HI8AT -- all on 10-meter SSB.

    The 14th was amazing, starting off with a couple of contacts with Maine on SSB. At 2207 CT3MD, Madeira Island was S9 and easily worked on CW, followed at 2232Z by HK1MW, in Columbia at S9+, CT1GFK and CT1EWX, both weak form Portugal, with KP4TF booming in again as well -- all on CW. This is probably the earliest in the Es season that I have ever worked Europe on 10 meters. From then until 2300Z, I contacted NP4ET, KP4CQ, and KP4ARR -- all better than S9. I heard Brazil and Argentina on CW calling stations, too. Returning at 2334Z, I found Steve, HP9SAM, in Panama at S9+. HC5DX from Ecuador on SSB, and YY4RCT, in Venezuela answered my SSB CQ about S5. I also worked 9Z4Y in Trinidad on CW and a loud HC5RF on SSB.

    "On the 15th, I caught up with HH2AA in Haiti who had been spotted earlier in the week. He had an S9 signal at 1931Z on CW. Then at 2110Z, K6BIG in Pasadena, California answered my CQ on SSB. At 2237Z, CT3MD was logged as an S9 signal on 12-meter CW. Starting 2337Z, HK1ANP was S7 on 10-meter CW and he kindly moved to 12-meter CW and was also S7 there. XE1HON in Mexico called me on SSB, and then I found XE1XR on CW and 4A60I (also Mexico) at 0011Z, both on SSB and both S9."

     

    Regular contributor David Moore sent this article about the Parker Solar Probe: https://bit.ly/2TrgRy8[2]

     

    Another article about solar minimum: https://bit.ly/2LQ94pv[3]

     

    Tom Scott, N5GIT, reported from San Antonio (EL09), "Made an impressive run on 6-meter FT8 on Mother's Day evening (May 10). Out of 133 stations that heard me according to Pskreporter, I contacted 41 stations during a 4-hour stint well into the midnight hour from Canada to Cuba!"

     

    Here is the latest video from Dr. Skov: https://bit.ly/3cOUV7X[4]

     

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for May 14 through 20, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 67.6, 67.8, 69.4, 69.6, 70.2, 68.7, and 69.6, with a mean of 69. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, and 3, with a mean of 3.7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 4, 4, 3, 5, 6, and 3, with a mean of 4.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/36lXID1
    [2] https://bit.ly/2TrgRy8
    [3] https://bit.ly/2LQ94pv
    [4] https://bit.ly/3cOUV7X
    [5] k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 29 17:39:57 2020
    05/29/2020

    No significant solar activity over the past week, and still no sunspots observed since the end of April. According to Spaceweather.com, the percentage of spotless days in 2020 has inched up another notch to 79%.  The percentage of days showing no sunspots for all of 2019 was 77%.

    Average daily solar flux for last week was 69.6, up from 69 during the previous week. Average mid-latitude A index was 5.7, it was 4 during the previous week, and average planetary A index was 4.6, up from 3.7 during the previous seven days.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 69 on May 29, and 70 on May 30 through July 12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on May 29-31, 5 on June 1-14, 8 on June 15-16, and 5 on June 17 through July 12.

    On May 27 Spaceweather.com pointed toward an active region, possibly a sunspot, just over our Sun's eastern horizon. You can see it via the STEREO observatory at https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[1]. Note that in solar images, east is toward the left, from Earth's POV. They expect it to come over the horizon and begin to point toward us on Friday, May 29. On Thursday evening, I can see it just barely across the horizon.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 29 until June 23, 2020 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be

    quiet on: May 31, June 2-5, 9-13

    quiet to unsettled on: May 29-30, June 14, 19-20

    quiet to active on: (June 1, 6-8, 15-18, 21)

    unsettled to active: none predicted

    active to disturbed: none predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on June (6-7, 16-17)

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

     

    On May 26, Martin McCormick, WB5AGZ, in Stillwater, Oklahoma wrote: "For several years, I have stored the channels between 29.600 through 29.680 plus at least 52.525 MHZ on a couple of scanners and recorded the output. It is usually nothing at all or worse, spurs and birdies from local sources such as computers and their networks plus unidentified RF smog from our neighbors' houses. Even at its worst, one could still tell that there just wasn't much going on on ten and six due to the absence of anything but noise.

    "The latter part of March and several days in April brought ten meters to life. The first week in May was mostly dead but after that, I am not sure I have heard a single day without some significant openings to the Eastern United States and generally areas within a 1,000 mile radius of the central continental US. One geographical factor if you live in the central US is that the population density is generally less for great swaths of land to our West until you hit the urban parts of Arizona, Nevada and California such as the Los Angeles area.

    "I heard two amateurs in Wyoming, for instance, who were within ground wave range of each other. One was N7DMO Riverton in Central Wyoming and W7WLK, nearby, whose signals probably would have both been full quieting on 29.6 but the discone antenna I am using is rated for 50-500 MHZ. Our computer network is to blame for a small amount of low-level noise on that frequency so there are noticeable heterodynes, but the stations were booming in and the operators were commenting that ten was open to Oklahoma.

    "Most of what we hear here on ten and six during single-hop Sporadic E is pretty much Southern Canada and New York to Florida along with Southern Texas, Mexico, Central America and occasionally the West Coast from San Francisco down to Southern California. The Northern Midwest down to Iowa and Nebraska is a common DX catch on ten meters and six.

    "It is nice this year to not have as much local interference such as the touch lamp some neighbors down the street got a few years ago that spewed birdies from around 25 MHZ well into low VHF until they moved out. And then there were the grow lamps, which knock about 10 dB off the bottom end of reception. They start up with a sort of blip-blip-blip-bzzzzzz,

    which is probably a gas discharge tube coming to life and shedding light on budding plants whose DNA sequences are still illegal in Oklahoma except for medical use. The sound is a broad-band hiss modulated by a buzz at ac line frequencies. Whatever it was, it seems to be absent this year and I am eternally grateful."

     

    Bob Kulacz, KB1DK, in Trumbull, Connecticut wrote on May 23: "How about this one? While I was waiting my turn to work OE8ANK on 40-meter SSB at 0345z on May 21, he was called by and worked YD2DOP. OE8ANK was surprised by the contact and asked for confirmation of his location. YD2DOP was heard loud and clear here in Connecticut, S8 to S9. Was I hearing YD2DOP over the North Pole, or was it long path over the dark south pole? It was just about high noon in Indonesia. I was never expecting to hear a signal from that location on 40 at that hour."

     

    W0TTY is in CN87 (where I am, Seattle area) and is using a small mobile antenna (Comet UHV-6) indoors. He uses FT8 and has made many contacts on 6 and 10 meters. Check his page on QRZ.com for a picture of his tiny antenna!

    "May 24th UTC looks like the big day with the big opening. On the 25th I had two Indonesian stations 5 minutes apart. I saw them for only maybe 30 minutes, and they were gone.

                                                                      

    2020-05-27     17:20  XE2GF  DM12LM 50.315         -19 R   -19 S   50W

    2020-05-27     17:12  NC6K   DM13           50.314

    2020-05-25     22:46  N9LD   EM69           28.076

    2020-05-25     18:25  NA6G   DM06           28.076

    2020-05-25     17:39  K7UW   DM43           28.076  > ___ these two are VERY interesting - Yaesu FTdx1200 band switching

    2020-05-25     17:38  N1AV   DM43           50.315  >

    2020-05-25     17:20  N3QQ   CN87           50.315

    2020-05-25     17:16  K7BAB  CN87           50.315

     

    2020-05-25     04:25  KE8FT  CM98           28.076 Oakland CA

    2020-05-25     04:22  KG6RYV CM87           28.076 Davis CA

     

    2020-05-25     03:39  YB1MIG OI32           14.076 -10 R   -17 S   75W

    2020-05-25     03:34  YB1NWE OI33           14.076 -24 R   -13 S   75W"

     

    He listed many others, far too many to report here.

     

    Here is the latest video from Dr. Skov, as of May 28: https://bit.ly/2Xyb4Ik[2]

     

    This weekend is the CQ Worldwide WPX CW contest: https://cqwpx.com/[3]

     

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for May 21 through 27, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.2, 70.8, 69.1, 68.8, 70.3, 69.7, and 68, with a mean of 69.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 4, 5, 5, 4, and 3, with a mean of 4.6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 4, 5, 7, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5.7.

     


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] https://bit.ly/2Xyb4Ik
    [3] https://cqwpx.com/
    [4] k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 5 16:59:57 2020
    06/05/2020

    Two new sunspots emerged this week, with a one-day gap on Tuesday with no sunspot. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 0 last week to 3.3 in this week, May 28 through June 3.

    It seems odd, but average daily solar flux was 69.6, unchanged from the previous seven days. Average daily planetary A index rose from 4 to 6, but average middle latitude A index was 5.7, same as last week.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 72 on June 5-12, 70 on June 13-20, 71 on June 21 to July 4, 70 on July 5-17, and 71 on July 18-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 5 through July 19. That's right, quiet with the A index at 5 on every single day over the next six and a half weeks.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 5-30, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be
    quiet on: June 5, 10, 12-13, 19, 22-25, 27, 30
    quiet to unsettled on: June 6-7, (8-9,) 11, 14-18, 20-21, 28-29
    quiet to active on: (June 26)
    unsettled to active on: nothing predicted
    active to disturbed: nothing predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on June (6-7, 16-17, 26-29)

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

    Jim Wilson, K5ND, noted on June 1: "I'm sure you've heard already about the extraordinary six meter activity this past weekend. I've heard about a big opening early Sunday morning from the Pacific Northwest into Alaska and Japan. Later that morning I experienced a big opening into Europe from here in North Texas. With 140 watts and 3-element Yagi at 20 feet I managed to work 7 new DXCC entities. Was that ever exciting. Here's my full write up: https://www.k5nd.net/2020/05/magic-band-europe-opening-may-31-2020/[1]"

    Steve Sacco, NN4X, reported on May 30: "We had some fascinating conditions Friday evening, before and at the start of the WPX CW.

    "Before the contest, folks were reporting hearing/working Europe on 10 meters here on the east coast, which is late, even during the top of the sunspot cycle.

    "In central Florida, we experienced tremendous lightning noise at the start of the contest, but awhile later, I was stunned to hear and work Europe, coming from the west! Hawaii was also strong.

    "I've been licensed and continually active since 1977, and do not recall that I've ever observed prop to Europe on 15 meters at that time of night, and on that  path.

    "It would be interesting to see what others have reported, and to better understand the cause of this opening."

    Mike Galler, WD5JTZ, has returned after being off the air for the past 35 years, and notices increased static, particularly on 80 meters. I replied that one problem which has increased over the past few decades is RFI from a proliferating number of consumer electronics devices that radiate lots of garbage and are non-compliant with FCC Part 15 rules covering incidental radiation. I am experiencing this with a nearby rooftop solar electric array which is tied into the local electric power grid.

    Noise will increase seasonally as we transition into summer, but one positive factor is the extremely low amount of geomagnetic activity. This is related to very low solar activity, and has contributed to favorable conditions on 160 meters.

    On May 29, Richard Ferry, K2KA, of Westford, Massachusetts wrote: "Yesterday we had another epic opening to Europe on 6-meter FT8. There were many signals. I worked TK5MH for a new one and copied ZB2GI but did not work.

    "It started before 2000z and went for an hour or more. Signals were strong and steady; +00 to -10 dB on average."


    For more information concerning radio propagation,
    see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for May 28 through June 3, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, 0, and 12, with a mean of 3.3. 10.7 cm flux was 67.5, 69.6, 70, 70.8, 69.2, 70.4, and 70, with a mean of 69.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 14, 4, 6, 7, and 4, with a mean of 6. Middle latitude A index was 2, 4, 13, 4,

     


    [1] https://www.k5nd.net/2020/05/magic-band-europe-opening-may-31-2020/
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 17 15:51:21 2020
    07/17/2020

    It turns out last week's bulletin ARLP028 did not get posted to the ARRL web site and did not go out via the usual channels. If you need a copy, check the bulletin archive link given at the end of this bulletin (perhaps tomorrow), or email a request to the author at k7ra@arrl.net[1].

    Over the past week, July 9-15, just one day had sunspot activity, and that was July 10 when the daily sunspot number was 12. The sunspot was number 2766, returning for a second appearance from old Cycle 24.

    On July 16 Spaceweather.com reported "a tiny proto-sunspot" exhibiting polarity indicating Cycle 25. But later it seemed to be gone, and every time I thought I'd spotted something, it turned out to be dirt on my computer screen.

    From the previous week to this week, average daily sunspot number declined from 3.3 to 1.7, but average daily solar flux stayed the same, at 68.5.

    Predicted solar flux remains low, further evidence of this long, deep solar minimum. All flux values for the next 45 days are predicted to stay below 70. 69 is the predicted 10.7 cm solar flux on July 17-22, 68 on July 23-24, 69 on July 25 through August 1, 68 again on August 2-20, 69 on August 21-28 and 68 on August 29-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 17-30, then 8 and 10 on July 31 through August 1, 5 on August 2-8, 8 on August 9-10, 5 on August 11-26, 8 on August 27-28, and 5 on August 29-30.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 17 until Aug 12, 2020 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be

    quiet on: July 17-21, 25-26, 28-29, August 4-7

    quiet to unsettled on: July 24, 27, 30, August 1-3, 10-12

    quiet to active on: (July 22-23, 31, August 8-9)

    unsettled to active on: nothing predicted

    active to disturbed: nothing predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on: July (17-18, 21-22)

    23-25, (26-27,) August 1-3 (- 4)

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - The predictability of changes remains in the long run lower as there are very few indications.

     

    George Hall, N2CG, reported, "I'm located in Northern New Jersey (FN20wv) and on July 11 starting around 8 AM EDT (1200Z) and for the next eleven hours the 6-meter band on FT8 mode was open to five continents.

    "All parts of Europe were coming in for over 10 hours and I managed to work 11 different DXCC entities, including JW7QIA in Svalbard for an all-time new one.

    "In Africa, the Canary Islands were coming in and there were a few Caribbean stations as well as many areas of the US and parts of northern South America workable with strong signals.

    "At 2200Z I had to go off the air due to an approaching thunderstorm. When I returned to the air at 2240Z the HamSpots DX cluster was showing I had spotted over a dozen Japanese stations on 6-meter FT8! For the next 25 minutes I managed to work six Japanese stations, with received signals ranging from -06 to -18 dBm. So, working Japan not only gave me an all-time new one, it also gave me Asia; the last continent I needed for my 6-meter Worked All Continents award, which I'll be able to apply for when I receive a paper QSL card from one of the Japanese stations. Let's hope the remaining weeks of this summer's 6-meter Es season will bring more DX surprises."

     

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, of Easton, Pennsylvania wrote: "On Sunday July 12, at 1 PM local time (1700 UTC), heard and worked Elye, KI5DLL, from Malvern, Arkansas (95 miles away from the Texas state line in Texarkana) at a distance of 1,057 miles. Initially his signal report was 1x1, but later rose to 3x3.

    "On Thursday, July 14, at 11 AM local time (1500 UTC), I heard Mark, KI4SWB, from Melbourne Beach, Florida at 924 miles. His signal report was 4x7, peaking +30 dB with deep fading. Both contacts were on the 10-meter FM simplex frequency of 29.600 MHz.

    "Considering operators on the lower segment 10 meter band (28 MHz) are having a rough time making DX contacts using SSB at a 3-kHz bandwidth, which is four times narrower compared to FM, it is somewhat amazing that I am starting to hear these type of emissions in the depths of a Solar Minimum. I urge everyone to continue monitoring 29.600 FM simplex. Even if the frequency sounds dead, give a call anyway. You might be pleasantly surprised."

    Mike sent an update on July 16: "Today, at 11:53 AM local (1553 UTC), I heard Lloyd, KC5FM, from Newkirk, Oklahoma, north of Oklahoma City. He was involved in a conversation, so I waited until be finished and then called him. To my surprise he returned my call with a 3x3 signal report. The distance was 1,203 miles. This is my FM record to date!"

     

    The latest video from WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/KK-kGMZe71Q[2]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation,
    see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
    see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is
    at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
    at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for July 9 through 15, 2020 were 0, 12, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.7. 10.7 cm flux was 68.7, 68.8, 68.7, 67.6, 68.2, 68.9, and 68.4, with a mean of 68.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 3, 3, 6, 11, and 5, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 2, 3, 7, 9, and 6, with a mean of 4.9.

     

     


    [1] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [2] https://youtu.be/KK-kGMZe71Q
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 24 19:10:23 2020
    07/24/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Another Cycle 25 sunspot (AR2767) appeared this week, with a minimum non-zero sunspot number of 11 on July 21 - 23. This puts the average daily sunspot number for the July 16 - 22 reporting week at 3.1, up from 1.7 over the previous 7 days.

    Geomagnetic indicators remain very quiet, with average daily planetary A index declining from 5 to 3.9.

    This sunspot cycle minimum remains surprisingly inactive. As time goes on, I keep expecting it to perk up, but all indicators remain quiet.

    One hopeful outlook[1] for Cycle 25 comes from a group of scientists who predict that it could be one of the biggest solar cycles of all time. Could we finally see a repeat of Cycle 19?

    Predicted solar flux - which roughly correlates to sunspot activity - also looks quite dull. Until Thursday, July 23, the 45-day outlook predicted solar flux would never rise hit 70.

    Predicted flux values are 70 on July 24 - 31; 69 on August 1; 68 on August 2 - 20; 69 on August 21 - 28, and 68 on August 29 - September 6.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 8, and 5 on July 24 - 27; 8 on July 28 - 29; 5, 8, and 10 on July 30 - August 1; 5 on August 2 - 18; 8 on August 19 - 20; and 5 on August 21 - September 5.

    Spaceweather.com[2] reports a possible coronal mass ejection (CME) impact this week. The faint CME left the sun on July 19 and may cause a minor disturbance on July 24 - 25. This is reflected in the planetary A index forecast.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for July 24 - Aug 19 from OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o Quiet on July 24 - 26; 28 - 29; August 4 - 7, and August 13 - 18.
    o Quiet to unsettled on July 27; 30; August 1 - 3, and August 10 - 12.
    o Quiet to active on July 31; August 8 - 9, and August 19.
    o No unsettled-to-active or active-to-disturbed conditions are expected.
    o Solar wind will intensify on July (23 - 27), August 1 - 3 (- 4, 11 - 15).

    Note: Parentheses mean a lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of changes remains lower in the long run, as there are very few indications, as the Solar Cycle minimum is here.

    Wade Blake, N7LGK, calls attention to this Solar Cycle Progression[3] graph from NOAA.

    Last week exceptional HF conditions during the IARU HF World Championship (July 11 - 12) were reported, with no sunspots. K7HV, K7SS, and others reported that conditions on Saturday night were "like the good old days," with worldwide propagation. 

    Sunspot numbers for July 16 - 22 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, and 11, with a mean of 3.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 68.7, 69, 67.8, 68.9, 69.3, 69.8, and 70, with a mean of 69.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 4, 4, 3, 5, and 5, with a mean of 4.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins.

    Share[10] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 31 17:38:16 2020
    07/31/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Finally, sunspots have returned! Two sunspots now are visible, both from new Solar Cycle 25. The daily sunspot number was 11 for July 21-27, rising to 22 for July 28-30.

    Recently, we have noticed an improvement in propagation due to seasonal sporadic-E activity.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 3.1 to 14.1 this week, and average daily solar flux edged up from 69.1 to 71.1.

    Total sunspot area covered 80 millionths of the solar disc on July 21, 120 millionths on July 22-26, and the coverage on the following 4 days was 70, 50, 85 and 110.

    Geomagnetic indicators were a bit more active, with average daily planetary A index rising from 3.9 to 6.7, while average daily mid-latitude indicators rose from 4.3 to 8.7.

    Predicted solar flux is 72 on July 31 - August 2, 70 on August 3 - 7, 68 on August 8 - 22, 69 on August 23 - 28, and 68 on August 29 - September 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 31, then 8 and 10 on August 1 - 2, 5 on August 3 - 23, 8 on August 24 - 25, and 5 on August 26 - September 13.



    Here is the geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 31 to August 26 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o Quiet on August 4 - 7, 15 - 19, 22 - 26


    o Quiet to unsettled on July 31, August 2 - 3, (8,) 9, 11, (12 - 14,) 20


    o Quiet to active on (August 1, 10, 21)


    o Unsettled to active not expected


    o Active to disturbed not expected


    o Solar wind will intensify on: August 1 - 3 (-4, 11 - 15,) 20 - 21, (22 - 25)



    Notes:

    +Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    +Predictability of changes remains lower this time, thanks to new active regions on the Sun.



    K7DWI offers interesting details[1] on his blog about using cheap SDR dongles for studying VHF openings.

    Thanks to Howard Lester, N7SO for this article[2] on solar flares:

    And thanks to regular contributor David Moore for this article[3] from Science Daily.

    Here's the latest[4] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Her QRZ.com profile[5] was recently updated and expanded.

    Sunspot numbers for July 23 - 29, 2020 were 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 22, and 22, with a mean of 14.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 70.3, 69.5, 70.4, 71.4, 71.4, 71.8, and 72.6, with a mean of 71.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 11, 15, 3, 4, 5, and 5, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 13, 27, 3, 5, 5, and 4, with a mean of 8.7.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com/2017/11/using-software-defined-radio-sdr-on-fm.html
    [2] https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/news/2020-15
    [3] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200727145826.htm
    [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vifDrXHwwsE
    [5] https://www.qrz.com/db/wx6sww
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 14 15:19:33 2020
    08/14/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: New Sunspot Cycle 25 continues to make a strong showing. Sunspots have appeared on every day for more than 3 weeks. Average daily sunspot numbers for the week slipped a bit from 19.6 to 14.3 this week, but average daily solar flux increased from 72.8 to 73.8. Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet. Both the average daily planetary and mid-latitude A index were 3.7.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 6 weeks is 72 on August 14 - 15; 70 on August 16 - 21; 72 on August 22 - 27; 73 on August 28 - 29; 75 on August 30 through September 9; 73 on September 10 - 11; 72 on September 12 - 23; 73 on September 24 - 25, and 75 on September 26 - 27. This is a welcome change from recent forecasts, which saw predicted solar flux consistently below 70.

    Predicted planetary A index forecasts continued quiet geomagnetic conditions; at 5 on August 14 - 23; 8 on August 24 - 25; 5 on August 26 - 28; then 8; 16 and 8 on August 29 - 31; 5 on September 1 - 19; 8 on September 20 - 21; 5 on September 22 - 24, then 8, 16, and 8 on September 25 - 27.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 14 - September 9 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on August 15 - 16, September 5 - 7 


    o quiet to unsettled on August 14, 17 - 19, 22, (23,) 24 - 25, (26 - 29,) September 2 - 4, 8 - 9 


    o quiet to active on (August 20 - 21, 30 - 31, September 1) 


    o unsettled to active not expected 


    o active to disturbed not expected 


    o Solar wind will intensify on August (22 - 23,) 24 - 25, September 1 - 2 (4 - 6) 



    Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28 in Kansas), offered this comment about the mention of 6-meter sporadic E in last week's bulletin. "Many of the reports I have received for July (including long-time 6-meter operator N0LL) reported great conditions on 50 MHz Es. On July 13, N0LL had his FT8 screen full of stations from Japan calling him on 50.313 MHz. Today, August 9, I had sporadic E on 6 meters to Florida, Texas, Mexico, and Arizona from Kansas."

    Jon is editor of the monthly "World above 50 MHz" column in QST.

    Here's a recent video[1] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, recently posted a survey[2] of various Solar Cycle 25 predictions. He also did a presentation[3] at on the same subject at the recent QSO Today Virtual Ham Expo. The material from that event will be up until September 9. Carl's Basic Concepts[4] resource is always good for a review.

    Personally, I like the prediction that promises a repeat of the epic Cycle 19 of the late 1950s. I was a small child then, but my father had a low-band FM 2-way radio mounted in his company car, probably operating somewhere between 30 and 40 MHz judging from my hazy memory of the length of the bumper-mounted whip antenna. 

    We were in Reedley, California, in the San Joaquin Valley. He sold agricultural chemicals to farmers and would use the radio to contact the office in Fresno. But at the peak of Cycle 19, local communications were often interrupted by skip from Texas and various midwestern states.

    From correspondence I've received from readers, I know there were many new teen-aged hams at that time, and a lot of then likely assumed that the fantastic propagation of the day was normal. Many were disappointed by Cycle 20, which was when I got my Novice ticket.

    So, I'd like to think we are due for another big cycle, but I try to avoid the gambler's fallacy. That is the name of the logical fallacy in which, when observing a random series of events such as spinning a roulette wheel, we keep seeing the ball land on red, and conclude we are due for black to come up. But with independent random events, one result cannot predict the next.

    Sunspot numbers for August 6 - 12, 2020 were 14, 14, 11, 13, 12, 12, and 24, with a mean of 14.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.1, 74, 74.7, 73.9, 74.2, 73.5, and 73.1, with a mean of 73.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 3.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 5, 3, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 3.7.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://youtu.be/6giEZ8rcBhk
    [2] http://k9la.us/Aug20_Cycle_25_Predictions.pdf
    [3] https://www.qsotodayhamexpo.com/
    [4] http://k9la.us/html/basic_concepts.html
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 21 18:38:42 2020
    08/21/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots disappeared on 4 days over the past week, but then returned. The average daily sunspot number declined from 14.3 to 5.4, while average daily solar flux went from 73.8 to 71. Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet. The average daily planetary A index increased from 3.7 to 4.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on August 21 - 22; 69 on August 23 - 28; 72 on August 29; 73 on August 30 - September 5; 72 on September 6 - 9; 71 on September 10 - 11; 70 on September 12 - 19; 71 on September 20 - 23; 72 on September 24 - 25; 73 on September 26 - October 2, and 72 on October 3-4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 21 - 22; 6 on August 23 - 25; 5 on August 26 - 28, 8, 16, and 8 on August 29 - 31; 5 on September 1 - 14, 10 on September 15 - 16, 5 on September 17 - 24, then 8, 16, and 8 on September 25 - 27, and 5 on September 28 - October 4.

    According to the geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 21 - September 16 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, the geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on September 5-7


    o quiet to unsettled on August 22, (23,) 24-25, (26-28,) September 2-4, 8-9


    o quiet to active on (August 21, 29-31, September 1, 16)


    o unsettled to active - not expected


    o active to disturbed - not expected


    o Solar wind will intensify on: August (21-23,) 24-25, 29, September 1-2, (4-6,) 8, 15-16



    Notes: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Thanks to Max White for this link to a Phys.org article[1] about a dent in Earth's magnetic field and the South Atlantic Anomaly.

    Here's the latest report[2] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW. The CME she speaks of turned out not to be geo-effective, so we missed a disturbance.

    Reader David Moore alerted us to a ScienceDaily article[3] on the NASA THEMIS Mission. "A special type of aurora, draped east-west across the night sky like a glowing pearl necklace, is helping scientists better understand the science of auroras and their powerful drivers out in space."

    George Hall, N2CG, writes:

    "Reading The K7RA Solar Update of August 14 regarding your personal experience of Solar Cycle 19 when you were a young boy listening to the low-band VHF FM 2-way radio in your dad's company car in California and suddenly hearing stations in Texas and other midwestern states brought back fond memories of a similar nature I experienced in Solar Cycle 20.

    "I was a Radioman on active duty in the US Coast Guard stationed at NIK/NJN on the US Naval Air Station, Argentia, Newfoundland. The Crash Crew - a fire department specifically devoted to incidents on the airport with specially equipped fire trucks that could literally drive right up on top of a fire on the ground and expel fire extinguishing foam from the underside of the crash crew trucks to put out the fire - at Argentia was a 24/7/365 operation that monitored the airport control tower's VHF Low Band (30 - 49 MHz).

    "Over the radio one bright sunny early afternoon in June 1968 came the call 'ROLL THE GEAR ROLL THE GEAR,' which is the highest response precedence for the Crash Crew to man the crash crew trucks and head for the airport crash site. The Argentia Newfoundland Crash Crew immediately headed for the airport, but saw no evidence of a crash - no smoke or fire. The senior on-scene crash crew member called the tower to ask if this was a drill. The tower replied they also heard the 'ROLL THE GEAR' call, but it was not [from] them, and for the crash crew to return to station.

    "Later that day it was determined that the 'ROLL THE GEAR' call actually came from the US Naval Air Station in Rota, Spain, over 2,500 miles away. Both Argentia and Rota used the same VHF Low Band frequency.

    "Thanks for bringing back the fond memories of over 52 years ago." [Edited for length. - Ed]

    Sunspot numbers for August 13 - 19 were 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 15, with a mean of 5.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 72.3, 70.8, 70.6, 70.9, 70.8, 71.3, and 70.5, with a mean of 71. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 7, and 6, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 3, 3, 5, 3, 7, and 9, with a mean of 5.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://phys.org/news/2020-08-nasa-track-slowly-dent-earth.html
    [2] https://youtu.be/GW4HOvejxFA
    [3] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200814131005.htm
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 28 17:56:47 2020
    08/28/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Our closest star seems to have quieted again. We have now experienced 7 consecutive days with no sunspots.

    Average daily sunspot number dropped from 5.4 to 1.9 this week, and average daily solar flux declined from 71 to 70.4. Geomagnetic indicators increased marginally, with average daily planetary A index going from 4.4 to 5.1, and average middle latitude A index from 5 to 6.

    Predicted solar flux is 70 on August 28 - September 3; 71 on September 4; 72 on September 5 - 9; 71 on September 10 - 16; 70 on September 17 - 27; 71 on September 28 - 30; 72 on October 1 - 6, and 71 on October 7 - 11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 10, 12, and 8 on August 28 - 31; 5 on September 1 - 17; 8 on September 18 - 19; 10, 15, and 10 on September 20 - 22; 5, 10, 12, and 18 on September 23 - 26; 15 on September 27 - 28; 12 on September 29, and 5 on September 30 - October 11.

    OK1HH is on his annual hiatus, so no geomagnetic prediction from him this week. Instead, we present a much more limited forecast from Tomas Bayer of the Budkov Observatory in the Czech Republic. Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 28 - September 3:


    o Quiet: August 27, Sep 1 - 3


    o Unsettled: August 27 - 31, Sep 1 - 2


    o Active: possible August 30 - 31


    o Minor storm: 0


    o Major storm: 0


    o Severe storm: 0



    Geomagnetic activity summary: Friday, August 28, we expect the most quiet conditions yet. Friday evening, more unsettled conditions are possible. The most unsettled conditions are expected over the weekend, Saturday, August 29, and Sunday, August 30. The unsettled stage can also peak by any isolated active event.

    After Monday, August 31, we expect waning of the unsettled conditions to quiet-to-unsettled level. The first 3 days of September, we expect quiet conditions to return. - Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR Prague, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov Observatory

    Since sunspots are fading (I assure you this is temporary) we have received another of the occasional reminiscences of Solar Cycle 19, this one from Bill, W5EC.

    "I would love for everyone to experience another cycle 19 in the next 10 years.

    "I received my Novice license in 1954 at the age of 16. My station was an S-38 and a homemade 6V6 xmtr on 80 meters, crystal controlled. Later, I was given a 40 meter crystal and I enjoyed more-distant QSOs. One night I was called by a very strange call, and I learned that I was talking to CM7JA in Camaguey, Cuba. My first DX, and I was hooked. I built a mighty Heathkit AT-1 and moved to 15 meters in my quest for DX. Hawaii was my first DX on 15.

    "I received my General in 1955, and built a Heathkit VFO. Now I was set for DX. In late 1954, the SSN was bouncing around 5, good for 80 and 40. In late 1955 the SSN was bouncing around 70, and 20, 15, and 10 were alive with signals from everywhere. I upgraded to an NC-98 receiver and a Globe Scout transmitter, and in late 1956 the SSN was about 160. I thought DX could not be better than this.

    "But it did! I built a homemade 10-meter beam made from bamboo poles wrapped in aluminum foil and could contact anyone I could hear. By the end of 1957, the SSN was 200 with excursions to 250. All the high bands were open all night long. It was fantastic! Most of my operation was on CW with an occasional QSO on AM, if I heard a new one.

    "By 1958, school and girls competed with radio for my attention, but I always found some time to operate. SSN was still up around 160. Soon it was graduation, job, marriage, and kids but I always found time to flip the new-and-improved rig on. I was also working on getting those elusive QSL cards to improve my DXCC standing.

    "Now at 82, I am still working DX but mostly on FT8, and I am looking forward to an exciting Solar Cycle 25. I hope y'all can experience what I did.

    " -- Bill, W5EC. DXCC #1 Honor Roll/Mixed: 362/340/CW: 346/339

    Thanks, Bill, for the report from the mid-20th century. Nice to hear of a Yagi built from bamboo poles wrapped in aluminum foil.

    I hope we see more sunspots soon, and one thing we have to look forward to currently is improved propagation due to seasonal effects. We are just a few weeks away from the autumnal equinox.

    Here's a new video[1] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

    Sunspot numbers for August 20 - 26 were 13, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 19. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 69.9, 70.9, 70, 70.6, 70.3, 70.6, and 70.4, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 8, 7, 3, 4, and 7, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 13, 7, 3, 3, and 7, with a mean of 6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[4] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

    Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[8] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://youtu.be/CnNpWD5UzVs
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 4 19:16:35 2020
    09/04/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: As of Thursday night, no sunspots have appeared for the past 13 days. I know we are all hoping for more sunspots, and I'm sure they'll be returning soon; the trends for this newly awakening solar cycle favor it. One event to look forward to this month is the autumnal equinox on Tuesday, September 22, which should favor worldwide HF propagation.

    Average daily solar flux declined this reporting week (August 27 - September 2) from 70.4 to 69.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators showed quite a bit more activity than they have in some time. Average daily planetary A index rose from 5.1 to 13.1. The most active day was August 31, when the planetary A index reached 26. The cause was a vigorous solar wind spewing from holes in the solar corona.

    Predicted solar flux is 70, forecast for every one of the next 45 days. Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 4 - 17; 8 on September 18 - 19; 5 on September 20 - 22; 8, 10, and 14 on September 23 - 25; 10 on September 26 - 27; 12 and 10 on September 28 - 29, and 5 on September 30 - October 18.

    This article[1] says the solar minimum most likely occurred last December.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, offers his geomagnetic activity forecast for September 4 - 29.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on September 5 - 8, 10 - 13, 16 - 17, 20 - 21


    o quiet to unsettled on September 4, 9, 14, 29


    o quiet to active on September 15, 18 - 19, 22 - 24, 26


    o unsettled to active on September 25, 27 - 28


    o active to disturbed not expected


    o solar wind will intensify on September (4, 15, 19,) 22 - 23



    Note: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    OK1HH also wrote about his river cruise[2]: "As a captain, I sailed on the MY Daisy (LOA 8 meters, 0.4 tons) on the Czech rivers Elbe and Vltava on the route Melnik to Zernoseky Lake, Usti, Melnik, Luzec, Melnik, a total of 217.4 kilometers. And it was a beautiful week!

    Thanks to Carl, K9LA, for sharing this link[3] to a fascinating and informative RSGB lecture about sporadic-e propagation.

    Here's an article[4] about Europe's most powerful solar telescope.

    Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has a new video[5]. I love Dr. Skov's enthusiasm: "Whammo!" And also, of course, her expertise, which she shares so generously.

    Sunspot numbers for August 27 - September 2 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, for a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 70, 70.1, 70.2, 70, 69.2, 69.5, and 68.3, for a mean of 69.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 10, 14, 9, 26, 16, and 9, for a mean of 13.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 8, 14, 8, 19, 16, and 8, for a mean of 11.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.sidc.be/silso/node/166
    [2] https://pujcovna-plavidel.cz/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/IMAG1260-1-min.jpg [3] https://youtu.be/wn5as91ndG4
    [4] https://bit.ly/2ETMA75
    [5] https://youtu.be/bTkkmrhxMfU
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 11 18:36:28 2020
    09/11/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: An extended lull in solar activity persists. The smoothed sunspot minimum occurred last December, but the flurry of moderate sunspot activity in August has not continued.

    An event to look forward to is the autumnal equinox, which occurs at 1330 UTC on Tuesday, September 22. We should see a seasonal improvement in HF propagation around that date because the northern and southern hemispheres are bathed in roughly equal solar radiation, enhancing north-south propagation.

    Thursday, September 10 was the 20th consecutive day with no sunspots, but Spaceweather.com[1] reported a small sunspot with a Cycle 25 magnetic signature may be forming in the sun's southeastern quadrant. As of Thursday night it was still too small to merit numbering.

    Average daily solar flux barely budged from 69.6 to 69.7. Geomagnetic indicators were very quiet, with average daily planetary A index declining from 13.1 to 4.4. As with last week's forecast, predicted solar flux is 70 on every day over the next 45 days, September 11 - October 25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 11 - 17; 8 on September 18 - 19; 5 on September 20 - 22; 8, 10, and 15 on September 23 - 25; 10, 25, 15, and 10 on September 26 - 29; 5 on September 30; 8 on October 1; 5 on October 2 - 14; 8 on October 15 - 16; 5 on October 17 - 19, and 8, 10, 15, 10 and 25 on October 20 - 25.



    F.K. Kanda, OK1HH, in the Czech Republic has shared geomagnetic activity forecast for September - October 6.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on September 11 - 13, 16 - 17, 20 - 21


    o quiet to unsettled on September 14, 22 - 25, 29, October 1 - 2


    o quiet to active on September 15, 18 - 19, 26 - 27, (October 5 - 6)


    o unsettled to active (September 28 - 30; October 3 - 4)


    o active to disturbed not expected



    Solar wind will intensify on September (15, 19,) 22 - 23, (October 3 - 4)

    Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.



    Frank Donovan, W3LPL shared this on September 6:

    "Exactly 3 years ago, on September 6, 2017, the sun ejected the strongest solar flare and earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) of Solar Cycle 24. Solar region 2673 produced four X-class solar flares, including a massive X-class solar flare of magnitude 9.3, from 1153 to 1210 UTC.

    Just over 8 minutes later, powerful hard X-rays from the flare increased D-layer ionization by several orders of magnitude, completely blacking out HF skywave propagation on the daylight side of Earth for about an hour - an event called a "sudden ionospheric disturbance" (SID).

    Solar flares are commonly followed by CMEs. Solar region 2673 ejected powerful Earth-directed CMEs on September 6, 2017, causing visible aurora on September 7 and 8, and a severe geomagnetic storm the planetary Kp index reached magnitude 8 on September 8.

    See the SpaceWeatherLive.com YouTube presentation[2].

    The strongest solar flare measured in modern times was an X28 flare on October 28, 2003, which blacked out HF skywave propagation on the sunlit side of Earth for several hours. Extremely powerful CMEs on October 28 and 29 caused severe geomagnetic storms on October 29, 30, and 31, and the Kp index reached magnitude 9 on all 3 days.



    A 3-hour video[3] from WX6SWW! Coronal Holes and Sources of the Solar Wind - Part 2.



    Sunspot numbers for September 3 - 9 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, for a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 70, 69.7, 69.2, 69.5, 70.2, 69.9, and 69.7, with a mean of 69.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 6, 4, 4, 4, and 1, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 9, 7, 5, 5, 4, and 1 with a mean of 4.9.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://youtu.be/gWTzNe436iw
    [3] https://youtu.be/0FG7CxZYbpI
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 18 17:57:52 2020
    09/18/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Lots of news lately about the solar cycle, but no sunspots. Today, September 18, is the 29th consecutive day with no sunspots.

    The news this week was about the Solar Cycle 24 minimum, announced[1] recently as having occurred during December 2019 and indicating the start of Solar Cycle 25. The reason that announcement is just coming out now has to do with the nature of moving averages, which in this case is a smoothed sunspot number, derived from arithmetical averaging of sunspot numbers over a whole year, i.e., half before December and half, to derive a mid-point average.

    Recent news stories offer predictions for Solar Cycle 25, such as this one[2] from SpaceRef.

    The reporting week of September 10 - 16 gave us an average daily solar flux of 69.2, no significant difference from the previous week's 69.7. Average daily planetary A index was 5.3, up only a little from 4.4 the previous week. Average daily mid-latitude A index went from 4.9 to 5.4.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days (September 18 - November 1) is the same as reported in past recent bulletins, 70 on every day.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 18 - 22; 8, 10, 15, 10, 25, 15, and 10 on September 23 - 29; 5 on September 30 - October 14; 8 on October 15 - 16; 5 on October 17 - 19; then, as in the earlier period, 8, 10, 15, 10, 25, 15, and 10 on October 20 - 26, then back to 5 on October 27 - November 1.

    Here's a geomagnetic activity forecast for September 18 - October 13 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on September 21-22, October 6-8


    o quiet to unsettled on September 18, October 3-5, 9-10, 13


    o quiet to active on September 19-20, 23-24, 29-30, October 1-2


    o unsettled to active (September 25-28, October 11-12)


    o active to disturbed: not expected


    o Solar wind will intensify on September (19,) 22-23, 27-29, October (3-4,) 11-13



    Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of changes remains lower because there are few unambiguous indications.

    Steven Rudnick, W1KYB, Santa Fe, New Mexico, asked, "How did they come to the conclusion that we are in a new cycle when the sunspot number has been zero for 27 days now?"

    Scientists probably looked at a couple of factors. One is the polarity of sunspots. As the sun transitions from one cycle to the next, the polarity of sunspots changes. It starts with a few sunspots having opposite polarity from sunspots in the recent cycle, then gradually it shifts so eventually the majority have the new cycle polarity.

    The other factor is the smoothed sunspot number, which is an average based on an entire year of sunspot numbers. This reduces the noise in the numbers, so it is easier to see the trends.

    The smoothed sunspot number for December 2019 would be based on the monthly sunspot numbers for approximately July 2019 through July 2020.

    Here's the data[3].

    If you look at the monthly averages, they jump all over the place.

    The monthly averages for September 2019 through March 2020 were 1.1, 0.40, 0.50, 1.5, 6.2, 0.20, and 1.5.

    But the smoothed numbers for those same months were 3.1, 2.6, 2, 1.8, 2.2, 2.8, and currently undetermined for March, placing the lowest number in December.

    At some point in the future, the current dearth of sunspots over the past month may just look like noise in retrospect. Or maybe not, should it continue. I hope it does not persist.

    From the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), predicted solar flux and sunspot numbers[4] through December 2040.

    Here's NASA's take[5] on Solar Cycle 25.

    Here's the latest report[6] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for September 10 through 16, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 69.3, 68.7, 69.3, 69.8, 68.9, 68.8, and 69.5, with a mean of 69.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 3, 5, 6, 11, 7, and 3, with a mean of 5.3. Middle latitude A index was 2, 2, 6, 7, 10, 8, and 3 with a mean of 5.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[9] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[11] website.

    Instructions[12] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[13] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/35FQKKZ
    [2] https://bit.ly/3iFe9zU
    [3] http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles
    [4] https://bit.ly/2ZPW4aK
    [5] https://go.nasa.gov/2RDSlc0
    [6] https://youtu.be/dYibU6gy3yw
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 25 18:20:47 2020
    09/25/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Up until September 23, we saw 32 consecutive days with no sunspots. Then new sunspot group AR2773 appeared, which has a magnetic signature indicating it's part of new Solar Cycle 25. Spaceweather.com[1] noted it was a weak one, and may not persist for long. The daily sunspot number for September 23 was 13, indicating three sunspots visible in that group, but the sunspot was gone the next day.

    Average daily solar flux rose from 69.2 to 71.1 over the September 17 - 23 reporting week. Geomagnetic indicators were about the same, with average daily planetary A index declining from 5.3 to 5.1.

    As of September 23, the predicted solar flux for the following 45 days was 73 on September 24 - October 1, and 70 on October 2 - November 2.

    The next day that forecast was revised to a predicted solar flux of 70 on every day until November 8. But on Thursday, September 24, the solar flux was 73.6, closely matching the previous day's forecast.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 25, and 15 on September 25 - 28; 8 on September 29 - 30; 5 on October 1 - 10; 10 on October 11; 5 on October 12 - 19; 10, 12, 16, 28, 18, and 10 on October 20 - 25; 5 on October 26 - November 6; 10 on November 7;and back to 5 on November 8.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for September 25 - October 20, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on October 6 - 7


    o quiet to unsettled on October 5, 8 - 9, 13 - 16, 18


    o quiet to active on September 30, October 1 - 2, (3 - 4, 10, 12, 17), 19


    o unsettled to active September 25 - 26, 28 - 29, (October 11, 20)


    o active to disturbed (September 27)


    o Solar wind will intensify on September (27 - 28,) 29 - 30, October 1, 13 - 14, (15, 21,) 22



    Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    The OK1HH forecast sees active to disturbed conditions on September 27, which matches the NOAA and USAF A index prediction of 25 on that date. This disturbance returns about 30 days later with an A index of 28 on October 23.

    An interesting article[2] in SciTechDaily discusses, "How NASA & Scientists around the World Track the Solar Cycle."

    Ken, N4SO, on the Alabama Gulf Coast reports that he hears three 15-meter beacons daily on 21.150 MHz - LU4AA in Argentina, OA4B in Peru, and YV5B in Venezuela. These are part of the NCDXF beacon network[3], and he rarely hears the 1-W transmission. At the other power levels they are S-3 - S-4.

    Here's a recent video[4] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the "Space Weather Woman."

    Sunspot numbers for September 17 - 23 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 13, with a mean of 1.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 69.7, 69.9, 70.6, 70.2, 71.3, 72.4, and 73.3, with a mean of 71.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 4, 3, 6, and 11, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, and 10, with a mean of 5.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://scitechdaily.com/how-nasa-scientists-around-the-world-track-the-solar-cycle/
    [3] https://www.ncdxf.org/beacon/beaconlocations.html
    [4] https://youtu.be/sitciVFVsfM
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 2 16:39:09 2020
    10/02/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar wind disturbed HF conditions over the September 24 - 30 reporting week.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 5.1 to 22, while average middle latitude A index went from 5 to 15.6. Average daily sunspot number declined from 1.9 to 1.6; a weak sunspot appeared on only two days, September 23 and 25, with sunspot numbers of 13 and 11, respectively. Average daily solar flux was on the increase, edging up from 71.1 to 73.4.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 74 on October 2 - 4; 70 on October 5 - 18; 72 on October 19 - 31; 70 on November 1 - 14, and 72 on November 15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on October 2 - 3; 5 on October 4 - 10; 10 on October 11; 5 on October 12 - 19; 10, 18, and 20 on October 20 - 22; 24, 16, 38, and 38 on October 23 - 26; 26, 15, and 10 on October 27 - 29; 5 on October 30 - November 6; 10 on November 7, and 5 on November 8 - 15.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for October 1 - 27 from OK1HH.


    o The geomagnetic field will be


    o quiet on October 6 - 7


    o quiet to unsettled on October 5, 13 - 16


    o quiet to active on October 1 - 2, (3 - 4; 8 - 9; 12, 17,) 18 - 19


    o unsettled to active October 10 - 11, 20, 22, (24,) 27


    o active to disturbed October 21, 23, (25 - 26)


    o Solar wind will intensify on October 1 - 3, 13 - 14, (15; 20 - 25,) 26 - 27.



    Notes: Parentheses means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Here is an article[1] about the European Space Agency Solar Orbiter.

    Southgate Amateur Radio News posted a 10-meter report[2] from Tony, G4CJC.

    W6MVT in Southern California was pleasantly surprised on September 28 after erecting a new vertical. His first catch was E51JD in the South Cook Islands at 0022 UTC. This was his first SSB DX on 15 meters in many years, although the opening vanished as quickly as it came.

    Jeff, N8II reported last Saturday, September 26:

    "Solar storm today, early about 1400 - 1500Z. Skip was shorter than normal (NJ and NC on 40) and W9 - land on 20 along with a few ME/NB stations (Maine QSO Party [was] this weekend), but after a good run of 5s, 6s, 7, and 0s on 20 SSB this afternoon, the condx are very poor as of 2015Z. The storm is in full force."

    Ken, N4SO, shared this report from the Alabama Gulf Coast:

    "A wealth of information[3] on the NCDXF beacons is available from the Reverse Beacon Network.

    "Also, one more beacon on 21.150 MHZ is heard to add to LU4AA, OA4B, YV5B.

    "W6WX is often heard at this location near 2300-0000 UTC. His signals are strong enough to hear 100 W and 10 W."

    Sunspot numbers for September 24 - 30 were 0, 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.6, 73.4, 72.6, 74.1, 73.9, 72.8, and 73.3, with a mean of 73.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 19, 20, 27, 24, 33, 16, and 15, with a mean of 22. Middle latitude A index was 11, 17, 18, 16, 21, 14, and 12, with a mean of 15.6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/2GxUX8P
    [2] https://bit.ly/34gkTOK
    [3] http://www.reversebeacon.net/beacons/beacons_ncdxf.php
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 9 18:56:34 2020
    10/09/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Geomagnetic activity quieted down over the October 1 - 7 reporting week. Compared to the previous 7 days, average daily mid-latitude A index declined from 15.6 to 6, and average planetary A index slipped from 22 to 7.1.

    There were no sunspots this week and only one in the previous 7. Average daily solar flux went from 73.4 to 71.8.

    On late Thursday, October 8, however, two new Solar Cycle 25 sunspots appeared[1]! They are both in the southern hemisphere, and, as of this writing, had not been assigned numbers.

    Check Spaceweather.com[2] later to see the official sunspot numbers. You can check here[3] Friday night to see the daily sunspot numbers and daily total sunspot area over the last month. I just hope this activity isn't like recent spots, which made only brief, faint appearances.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 72 on October 9 - 14; 70 on October 15 - 18; 72 on October 19 - 31; 70 on November 1 - 14, and 72 on November 15 - 22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 9 - 19; 10, 18, 20, and 24 on October 20 - 23; 16, 38, and 38 on October 24 - 26; 26, 15, and 10 on October 27 - 29; 5 on October 30 - November 6; 10 on November 7; 5 on November 8 - 15; 10, 18, 20, and 24 on November 16 - 19; 16 on November 20 - 21, and 38 on November 22.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, provided this geomagnetic activity forecast for October 9 - November 4. He reports the geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on October 16, 18, November 2.


    o quiet to unsettled on October 9-10, 12-14, 17, 31, November 3-4.


    o quiet to active on October 15, 19-20, 28-29, (30,) November 1.


    o unsettled to active October 11, 21-24, 27.


    o active to disturbed October 25-26.


    o Solar wind will intensify on October 13, (14-15, 20-21,) 22, (23-24,) 25-29, (30,) November 2-4.



    Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Here's word from NASA[4] about a new look at sunspots:

    Solar physicist Leif Svalgaard predicts[5] a slightly better Solar Cycle 25.

    Has the pandemic affected amateur radio activity? Yes[6], and in a good way.

    All that isolation seems to allow more time on the air, if HF contest activity is any indicator.

    From Jon, N0JK in Kansas:

    Some weak sporadic-E from Kansas to Florida October 6 around 1900 UTC, but stations farther east had some outstanding propagation. Stations in Ecuador worked north to the Gulf Coast, then New England on 6 meters.

    Propagation mode? F2 can occur in early October between North America and South America, but the solar flux was only 71 and with no major geomagnetic activity. Multi-hop sporadic-E may have been the mode. Some sporadic-E was spotted from New England to Florida, and Florida to Mexico. E-skip is rare in October, too.




    HC2FG



    20/10/06



    2104Z



    50313.0



     



    still in FN44 Maine



    K1TOL




    HC3AP



    20/10/06



    2103Z



    50314.4



    FT8



     



    W4AS




    HC3AP



    20/10/06



    2100Z



    50313.0



     



    CQ



    XE1MEX-#




    HC1BI



    20/10/06



    2055Z



    50313.0



     



    73



    KW4BY




    HC1BI



    20/10/06



    2051Z



    50314.2



    FT8



     



    KD5M




    HC1BI



    20/10/06



    2046Z



    50313.0



    FT8



    Maine



    K1TOL




    HC2FG



    20/10/06



    2046Z



    50313.0



     



    73



    KW4BY




    HC1BI



    20/10/06



    2045Z



    50314.2



    FT8



     



    W4AS




    HC2FG



    20/10/06



    2037Z



    50313.0



    FT8



    Maine



    K1TOL




    HC2FG



    20/10/06



    2035Z



    50313.0



     



     



    WB2TQE




    HC2FG



    20/10/06



    2033Z



    50314.7



    FT8



     



    KD5M



    Jeff Hartley, N8II writes from West Virginia:

    "I just finished the California QSO Party. Saturday, 15 meters was very marginal; I made about 20 QSOs. Today, 15-meter conditions were excellent to all of California from 1640 - 1850 UTC, enabling me to work about 110 total 15-meter QSOs. 80 and 40 were excellent to California, with the 40-meter peak about 30 - 60 minutes before their sunset Saturday evening. Some signals on 80 were quite loud, and the California stations were hearing my 200 W very well. Also, signals were still good to California almost 2 hours after my sunrise today on 40. 20 was very poor 2200 - 2300Z Saturday, but improved enough for me to run 20-meter SSB stations 2300 - 2340Z. I noticed some possible sporadic E to central Tennessee and Kentucky in the afternoon on 20 (also some unexpected Illinois stations late morning)."

    Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW explains[7] the cause of recent geomagnetic activity.

    Sunspot numbers for October 1 - 7 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 72.8, 72.2, 71.8, 71.2, 72.3, 71.7, and 70.7, with a mean of 71.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 9, 6, 4, 8, 7, and 5, with a mean of 7.1. Middle latitude A index was 11, 6, 5, 3, 7, 6, and 4, with a mean of 6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[10] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

    Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[14] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/2Fe1yoJ
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [4] https://go.nasa.gov/3dbJM1T
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/news/solar-physicist-predicts-a-slightly-better-solar-cycle-25
    [6] https://cqwpx.com/stats.htm
    [7] https://bit.ly/3iGTtXl
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 16 14:01:29 2020
    10/16/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots returned on October 9 - 12, with sunspot numbers of 24, 26, 15 and 15. No sunspot appeared on October 13, but late on Wednesday, October 14, Spaceweather.com[1] reported a new emerging Solar Cycle 25 spot on our sun's southeastern limb, and a daily sunspot number of 12. The next day, NOAA reported sunspot numbers of 12 and 14 on October 14 - 15. Prior to October 9 no sunspots appeared for 2 weeks, and at that time we saw a sunspot number of 13 on September 23 and 11 on September 25.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 0 to 13.1, while average daily solar flux went from 71.8 to 73.1.

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index dropping from 7.1 to 2.7 and middle latitude A index from 6 to 1.9.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 74 on October 16 - 17; 72 on October 18 - 31; 70 on November 1 - 7; 73 on November 8 - 10; 72, 71, and 71 on November 11 - 13; 70 on November 14 - 23; 72 on November 24 - 27, and 73 on November 28 - 29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 16 - 19; 10 on October 20; 8 on October 21 - 23; 16, 38, and 38 on October 24 - 26; 26, 15, and 10 on October 27 - 29; 5 on October 30 - November 6; 10 on November 7; 5 on November 8 - 15; 10, 15, and 18 on November 16 - 18; 20 on November 19 - 20; 24, 14, and 10 on November 21 - 23; 8 on November 24 - 25, and 5 on November 26 - 29.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, filed this report.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on: October 16, November 5 - 7, 10 - 13 
    o quiet to unsettled on: October 17, 31, November 3, 14 - 16 
    o quiet to active on: October (18,) 19 - 20, 28 - 29, (30,) November (1,
    4) 
    o unsettled to active: October 22, (24,) 27, November 2, 8 ( - 9) 
    o active to disturbed: October (21, 23,) 25 - 26 
    o Solar wind will intensify on October (20 - 21,) 22, (23 - 25,) 26 - 29, (30,) 31, November (2 - 3,) 4 - 5, (9 - 11).

    Note: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    Do you think the recent (or current) solar minimum is lasting a little too long? Check this contrarian view[2]. Note the link Victor20-Sep23-SSN_Forecasts.tab toward the bottom of the page. It shows sunspot records and predictions from 1730 until 2101! I can't explain the numbers or how they were derived.

    Perhaps someone can help this programmer on Stack Overflow[3] with his Python program for performing linear regression with a sunspot database.

    On Thursday, October 15, on the local Puget Sound Repeater Group 146.96 MHz machine, I heard a couple of stations talking about gray-line, long-path propagation on 40 meters. After I inquired, Dean Holtan, N7XS of Camano Island, Washington wrote:

    "On Wednesday, October 14, at 1530 UTC, I heard K6MYC and company working ZS6 stations. I also heard a station in the Netherlands, PA1A I believe. He was very loud along with the ZS6 stations, S-9 plus via long path.

    "I was listening on my SDRplay RSPduo and a 160-meter loop at 100 feet. If I had gone to the shack I could have worked them. Thursday October 15, 20 meters was nicely open into Europe. KW7Y was working many G stations and EA short path at 1630 UTC. The above was all on phone.

    "Last week on October 10 starting at 0130 UTC when I was on vacation, on 20 meters at our sunset I worked UN7JX and VU2MB along with many others in Asiatic Russia. I was called by a station in Lebanon but that was unsuccessful - all on FT8 running 500 W and my 160-meter loop at 100 feet from Camano Island, Washington."

    Doug Behl, VE3XDB, linking via internet from Kitchener, Ontario, later wrote:

    "Many amateurs today complain about propagation. Conditions haven't been great for several years, although there is some glimmer of hope that things may be getting better. Those experiencing the most frustration seem to be sideband operators. I have had some success over the past few years, using a couple of principles.

    1. Use a mode that does better in poor conditions. These days, everyone jumps to FT8, a fantastic, low-power mode that does very well in poor conditions. However, I prefer a mode that creates a more traditional experience. CW and PSK31 are both very good modes for effective contacts when conditions are poor and may provide an opportunity to get to know the other operator a bit better.

    2. Work the gray line. Gray-line propagation occurs at daybreak or at dusk. It is very interesting, because it occurs at a very particular time of day, opens up very quickly, and then, when time is up, it just disappears! Here is a short, interesting article[4] on the science and experience of gray line propagation.

    Following the above two principles, I have worked western and eastern Europe, the Caribbean and South America, as well as Oceania and Southeast Asia over the past few months, My modest station is a short, inverted L and an old Kenwood transceiver, usually running about 20 W and never more than 40 W. Best results have been achieved on 20, 30, and 40 meters.

    To work the world when conditions are poor, I encourage others to try CW and PSK31, especially at dawn or at dusk. You may be surprised by the results achieved using a modest station. We need more operators in both of these modes!"

    Ken Brown, N4SO wrote:

    "Evidence pointed to a very good propagation path to Asiatic Russia, Japan, and to China on Saturday evening. From October 10, 2330 UTC, 21.074 MHZ, FT8: I first noticed UA0CA calling CQ from Asiatic Russia. It's rare to see a UA0 on the screen, and so far I have never completed a contact. I have also never had completed a contact with China until Saturday evening.

    "Calling UA0CA was noticed by BV1EK, China, and he called me and we were able to complete a contact. In this same period, I completed contacts with JA1FGX, JQ1CIV, and JG1SRB.

    "A contact with UA0CA or with UA0ZK was not made, but I can appreciate the distance is roughly 5,000 miles away. I will try again on Sunday. Distance to UA0ZK, for example, is 5,391 miles."

    Sunspot numbers for October 8 - 14 were 0, 24, 26, 15, 15, 0, and 12, with a mean of 13.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 71.6, 73.1, 73.6, 72.9, 73.8, 72.3, and 74.5, with a mean of 73.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 2.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, and 0, with a mean of 1.9.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website. 

    Share[11] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://bit.ly/3nWoGK0
    [3] https://bit.ly/3lVNgIX
    [4] https://www.qsl.net/w2vtm/grayline.html
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 23 16:02:58 2020
    10/23/2020

    The K7RA Solar Update

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports:

    Sunspots appeared every day of the past reporting week. Compared to the previous 7 days, the average daily sunspot number increased from 13.1 to 15. Average daily solar flux rose from 73.1 to 74.5. Geomagnetic indicators were up slightly, with average daily planetary A index rising from 2.7 to 5, and middle latitude A index going from 1.9 to 4.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 75 on October 23 - 27; 72 on October 28; 70 on November 1 - 7; 73 on November 8 - 10; 72 on November 11; 71 on November 12 - 13; 70 on November 14 - 23; 72 on November 24 - 27, and 73 on November 28 - December 6.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 20 on October 23; 15 on October 24 - 26; 12 on October 27; 10 on October 28; 8 on October 29; 5 on October 30 - November 6, 10 on November 7; 5 on November 8 - 15; 10, 15, and 18 on November 16 - 18; 20 on November 19 - 20; 24, 14, and 10 on November 21 - 23; 8 on November 24 - 25, and 5 on November 26 - December 6.

    Here is the geomagnetic activity forecast from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, for October 23 - November 18.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on November 5-7, 10-13


    o quiet to unsettled on October 31, November 3, 14-15


    o quiet to active on October 28-29, (30,) November (1, 4,) 16


    o unsettled to active on October (24,) 27, November 2, (8-9,) 17-18


    o active to disturbed on October (23, 25-26)


    o Solar wind will intensify on October (23-25,) 26-29, (30,) 31; November (2-3,) 4-5, (12-14,) 15-18

    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    We received this report from Jeff, N8II, in West Virginia:

    "It took a while - the first 10 days of October were pretty dismal - but recently there has been an opening to Europe daily here on 15 meters, so perhaps conditions on 15 are better than this time last year. Conversely, very little has been heard on 12 or 10, CW or phone. Last year featured some loud signals on 10 meters from South America in the late afternoon.

    "It was October 10 when I started putting 15-meter European contacts in my log. MI0SAI in Northern Ireland was S-9 at 1525 on SSB, and SJ6A in Sweden was about S-5 - 7 at 1542 UTC. Sunday, October 11 I worked Germany, England, Italy, The Netherlands, and Croatia, all with S-7 or stronger signals on SSB, between 1417 and 1527 UTC.

    "One thing seems apparent: The MUF is so close to 21 MHz that each opening is somewhat different in coverage and peak propagation time. Some other highlights: EU1KY in Belarus on SSB at 1306; OZ8KW in Denmark at 1411; SP9LCW in Poland at 1414; at 1416, SM5YOC and at 1528, SM3LBP in Sweden, and OD5OZ in Lebanon at 1608 (quite late for him) on October 12. The next day, I worked LY2TS in Lithuania on CW at 1516, and I had a CW pile-up of mostly western European stations until 1552, with best DX being southern Russia, R6MI at 1544 and UR7QC at 1547. Signals seem to completely or nearly fade by 1630, and decrease right after 1600. On the October 16, 9K2HS in Kuwait was my first QSO on CW at 1532, and he was S-5 - 6, but heard me on first call. On October 18, I logged 7Z1IS Saudi Arabia at S-7 at 1407. The next day, there was a very strong opening to the UK from 1515 to 1548. On the October 20, OH5LF in Finland was S-9+ when we signed on SSB at 1407; his antenna was 5/5-element Yagis, and he was running 1.5 kW remote from his summer cottage.

    "Strong European SSB signals showed up on October 20, 1330 - 1510 after starting with 9K2HS at S-5 on SSB. I worked three stations in a row in Lebanon on SSB at 1500 UTC. Conditions dropped rapidly after 1510, very early for the band to close. Other stations worked during the European opening were ZS6TVB in South Africa and ZD7FT on St. Helena Island, both with strong signals."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, in Easton, Pennsylvania (FN20jq) sent this:

    "Yikes! October out-of-season single-hop sporadic-E (Es) was active on 6 meters along the east coast, Saturday, October 17, 2100 to 2300 UTC. This is 25 days past the autumnal equinox.

    "Once again, the unexpected happens during the early recovery out of a solar minimum.

    "I was monitoring FT8 on 50.313 MHz waiting for Es to show-up along the Gulf of Mexico. Then it happened. The first direct decodes:

    215700 -3 -0.4 1527 ~ WA2FZW W4KBX EL98

    220345 -2 -0.4 2178 ~ KK2DOG W4KBX EL98

    220545 -1 -0.4 2177 ~ KC3PIB W4KBX EL98

    220845 -9 -0.5 1566 ~ CQ K2IL EL97

    "Grid Squares: EL98 in central Florida, around Orlando, and EL97 in south central Florida, north of Lake Okeechobee.

    "Now that the band is open with Es expanding farther south, I decided to try for contacts on the SSB calling frequency on 50.125 MHz.

    "When I rolled down there, several operators were already having conversations about how pleasant it was that the band came back to life since the summer months. 

    "At 2252 UTC, I put out my first CQ. AG4N, Bill, replied from West Point, Georgia, which is some 300 yards from the Alabama state line. From my location to AG4GN, 230° azimuth, distance 771 air miles. 

    "I gave Bill a 4/7 signal report with QSB. 

    "The Es was being funneled as far away as Mobile, Alabama (996 miles), and Biloxi, Mississippi (1,045 miles).

    "By 2335 UTC the band started to collapse, with signal reports sliding down to 2/2.

    "No double-hop Es from Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, or other northern Caribbean Sea islands was heard.

    "Even if the band sounds dead, I urge everyone to continue monitoring the 6-meter SSB calling frequency, 50.125 MHz, then take it one step farther and call CQ. You might be pleasantly rewarded, even if you are running 10 W into a 6-meter horizontal half-wave dipole less than 8 feet off the ground."

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has posted a video[1].

    Sunspot numbers for October 15 - 21 were 14, 14, 15, 28, 12, 11, and 11, with a mean of 15. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.8, 75.3, 73.1, 75.9, 74.8, 74.7, and 73.7, with a mean of 74.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 5, 3, 6, 4, and 10, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 2, 4, 5, 3, 5, 3, and 7, with a mean of 4.1.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[4] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

    Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[8] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/34mi67T
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Wed Nov 18 20:15:14 2020
    11/06/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: The 10.7-centimeter solar flux density was 88.1 on Wednesday, November 4, the highest since October 14, 2016, when it was 92.8. The average daily solar flux for that week as reported[1] in this bulletin was 76.9, and average daily sunspot number was 18.7, so activity 4 years ago was similar to recent activity; in fact those numbers closely match the flux and SSN in last week's bulletin. But in 2016, Solar Cycle 24 was declining, reaching a minimum about 3 years later in December 2019.

    The daily solar flux is measured at noon local time (GMT -8 hours) in Penticton, British Columbia, but actually three daily measurements are taken, at 1800 UTC, 2000 UTC, and 2200 UTC.

    Solar flux has been steadily increasing since the 2000 UTC reading on November 2. The three daily readings through November 5 were 81.6, 81.9, 82.9, 82.9, 83.7, 86.9, 88.1, 89, 91.1, 90.7, and 92. But the daily 2000 UTC reading is always reported as the official number for the day. (Spaceweather.com lists[2] the daily flux values.)

    Average daily sunspot number during the October 29 - November 4 reporting week was 21.3, compared to 17 over the previous 7 days. Average daily solar flux was 81.6, compared to 76.9 reported last week.

    Average daily planetary A index this week was 6.3, down from 12.3 last week. Average daily mid-latitude A index was 4.9, down from 9.9 last week.

    Spaceweather.com[3] reported at 0703 UTC on November 3 that the new sunspot group produced a minor solar flare, and a pulse of UV radiation "briefly ionized Earth's upper atmosphere, causing a low-frequency radio blackout over the Indian Ocean."

    Another flare occurred at 0022 UTC on November 5, which caused a brief blackout over Australia and the Pacific Ocean, causing signals below 10 MHz to fade."

    Check the STEREO satellite images: 360° view[4] | Conventional format[5]. A large, new sunspot group, AR2781, is the largest so far in new Solar Cycle 25, according to Spaceweather.com. It should be geo-effective (facing Earth) over the next 10 days.

    Predicted solar flux is 88 on November 5 - 10; 83 on November 11; dropping to 75, 74, and 75 on November 12 - 14; 76 on November 15 - 21; 75 on November 22 - 27; 74 on November 28 - 29; 72 on November 30 - December 5; 74 on December 6 - 10; 75 on December 11; 76 on December 12 - 18, and 75 on December 19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, and 8 on November 5 - 7; 5 on November 8 - 16; 10, 5, 10; and 15 on November 17 - 20; 12 on November 21 - 22; 8, 10, and 12 on November 23 - 25; 5 on November 26 - 27; 10 on November 28; 5 on November 29 - December 13; then 8, 5, and 8 on December 14 - 16; 12 on December 17, and 10 on December 18 - 19. Flux and geomagnetic predictions are updated daily[6].

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for November 6 - December 2 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on November 6-7, 9-11, December  1-2


    o quiet to unsettled on November 8, 12-15, 19, 26-27, 30


    o quiet to active on November 16-18, 22-25, (29)


    o unsettled to active November 21, (28)


    o active to disturbed November 20


    o Solar wind will intensify on November (18-20,) 21-25 (30, December 2)



    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    This weekend is the CW portion of ARRL November Sweepstakes[7], which runs from 2100 UTC Saturday until 0259 UTC on Monday.

    Here's a cool photo[8] of the WWV antennas in Colorado, and from an unusual perspective.

    Sunspot numbers for October 29 - November 4, 2020 were 35, 32, 26, 12, 11, 15, and 18, with a mean of 21.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 84.6, 79.6, 76.8, 77.3, 81.6, 82.9, and 88.1, with a mean of 81.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 5, 6, 10, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 6.3. Middle latitude A index was 11, 4, 6, 8, 2, 2, and 1, with a mean of 4.9.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[11] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

    Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[15] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://bit.ly/3oYTDxO
    [2] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
    [3] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [4] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/beacon/
    [5] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [6] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes
    [8] https://bit.ly/35UUA1l
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Wed Nov 18 20:15:21 2020
    11/13/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: The last time we experienced a day with no sunspots was October 13. Prior to that, September 26 - October 8, September 24, and August 21 - September 22 had no sunspots. Cycle 25 is clearly under way and going strong.

    Average daily sunspot number over the November 5 - 11 reporting week was 31.3, up from 21.3 over the previous 7 days. Average daily solar flux increased from 81.6 to 90. The higher HF bands are opening up.

    Geomagnetic indicators were very quiet, with average daily planetary A index dropping from 6.3 to 4.4, and middle latitude A index (based on readings from a single magnetometer on Wallops Island, Virginia) from 4.9 to 2.7.

    Predicted solar flux for the following 7 days was revised downward on Thursday, November 12: Predicted flux is 85 on November 13 - 15; 82 on November 16; 80 on November 17 - 19; 78 on November 20 - 25; 80 and 82 on November 26 - 27; 86 on November 28 - December 5; 90, 88, 86, and 84 on December 6 - 9; 82 on December 10 - 11; 80 on December 12; 78 on December 13 - 22; 80 and 82 on December 23 - 24, and 86 on December 25 - 27.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 13 - 15; 5 on November 16 - 19; 15, 12, and 15 on November 20 - 22; 8, 10, and 12 on November 23 - 25; 5 on November 26 - December 2; 8 on December 3 - 4; 5 on December 5 - 8; 8 and 10 on December 9 - 10; 5 on December 11 - 13; 10, 5, and 10 on December 14 - 16; 15, 12, and 15 on December 17 - 19; 8, 10, and 12 on December 20 - 22, and 5, 5, 8, 5, and 5 on December 23 - 27.

    EarthSky recently published the article[1], "The Sun is Becoming Active Again."

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for November 13 - December 9 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. Geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on November 13 - 14, December 1, 6 - 8


    o quiet to unsettled on November 15 - 19, 23 - 30, December 2, 4


    o quiet to active on December 3, 5, 9


    o unsettled to active November (20 - 22)


    o active to disturbed none


    o Solar wind will intensify on: November (18 - 20,) 21 - 25, (30,) December (2,) 3 - 5, (9)



    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    We heard from Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, of Easton, Pennsylvania:

    Friday, November 6, was a good day for 10 meters between 2000 and 2100 UTC. A wide regional swath between the north Pacific Ocean, North America, and Western Europe were all hearing these call sign prefixes: CE/XR: Chile; CX: Uruguay; LU/LW: Argentina, and PY: Brazil. Modes heard were CW, FT8, and SSB.

    Signal strength went from background noise level of 2 up to 9+ dB.

    F2 distances ranged approximately from 3,000 to 6,000 miles (4,828 to 9,656 kilometers).

    DXmaps on 28 MHz indicated the MUF reached 66 MHz above grid square FN11 (Williamsport, Pennsylvania) at 2009 UTC, then ramped up to 72 MHz above FN00 (Altoona, Pennsylvania) at 2046 UTC. Prior to local sunset at 2152 UTC, the F2 slowly faded out into the South Pacific off the mid-western coast of South America.

    On November 11, around 2130 - 2320 UTC both sporadic-E (Es) and F2 started on the 11-meter band. Background noise level ranged between 3 and 4 dB. Puerto Rico stations via Es were strong, up to 20+ dB with light fading.

    These southern states were heard with signal strengths ranging from 8 to 18 dB: AL, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, TN.

    At 2248 UTC on 10 meters, there was light FT8 activity into Alabama and Tennessee until 2320 UTC when the DX finally went below the 4 dB noise level.

    Here are some useful images[2] from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

    Atlas Obscura[3] on Hisako Koyama.

    Sunspot numbers for November 5 - 11 were 28, 35, 37, 40, 27, 27, and 25, with a mean of 31.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 90.7, 93.8, 90.6, 90, 90, 86.8, and 88.1, with a mean of 90. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 7, 5, 1, 2, and 4, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 7, 4, 3, 0, 0, and 2, with a mean of 2.7.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/38CfS6W
    [2] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
    [3] https://bit.ly/2Uu1Cod
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 20 22:20:34 2020
    11/20/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: As solar flux declined over the past week, I noticed less long-distance propagation on 10 meters reported on pskreporter.info[1] from my local grid square, CN87. Propagation on 12 meters was quite strong, however. After 0100 UTC on November 15, transequatorial propagation was evident between East Asia and Australia on 10 meters. 

    Solar activity declined dramatically over the past week, with average daily sunspot numbers going from 31.3 to 12. On November 15 and 16, there were no sunspots at all, which greatly affected the decline in this week's average. Solar flux weakened from a weekly average last week of 90, to 79.8 this week. 

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is also relatively weak, at 75 on November 20 - 21; 73 on November 22; 70 on November 23 - 26; 72 on November 27; 75 on November 28 - December 8; 72 on December 9 - 10; 70 on December 11 - 12; 75, 72, and 72 on December 13 - 15; 70 on December 16 - 22; 72 on December 23 - 24, and 75 on December 25 - January 3, 2021.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, and 8 on November 20 - 22; 5 on November 23 - December 2; 8 on December 3 - 4; 5 on December 5 - 17; 8, 12, 8, 10, and 12 on December 18 - 22; 5 on December 23 - 29; 8 on December 30 - 31, and 5 on January 1 - 3, 2021.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for November 20 - December 16, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be: 


    o quiet on December 1, 6 - 8, 12 - 14, (15 - 16) 
    o quiet to unsettled on November 28 - 30, December 2, 4, 10 - 11 
    o quiet to active on November 26 - 27, December 3, 5, 9 
    o unsettled to active November (20,) 21 - 22, (23 - 25) 
    o active to disturbed  -  None predicted 
    o Solar wind will intensify on November (20,) 21 - 25, (30,) December (2,) 3 - 5, (9).

    Notes:


    o Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement. 
    o Predictability of changes remains lower, because there are few unambiguous indications.

    This bulletin has mentioned the paper by McIntosh, et al, "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Predicting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude[2]," referenced in The ARRL Letter for November 19.

    My favorite passage: "Our method predicts that SC25 could be among the strongest sunspot cycles ever observed, and that it will almost certainly be stronger than present SC24 (sunspot number of 116) and most likely stronger than the previous SC23 (sunspot number of 180). This is in stark contrast to the consensus of the SC25 [prediction panel] sunspot number maximum between 95 and 130, i.e., similar to that of SC24." The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel met in September.

    The new prediction is very exciting, and suggests a cycle that may rival Cycle 19, which peaked in March, 1958. The effects on HF radio propagation at that time were remarkable and included daily worldwide propagation on 10 and even 6 meters, and not just during daylight hours.

    I was about to turn 6 years old at the time, and we lived in Reedley, a small fruit-packing town in California's San Joaquin Valley, where my father worked supplying agricultural chemicals to farmers. He drove a company car that contained a low-band VHF FM radio (probably 30 - 40 MHz, judging from my memory of the bumper mounted antenna), and I recall his describing being unable to contact the base station in Fresno, about 25 miles away, while getting interference from other users of the channel in Texas.

    I've heard from many hams who were new Novice licensees at the time and assumed conditions would always be as they were then. They have been waiting a long time. I would love to see daily sunspot numbers greater than 200. Here's an article[3] about sunspot activity in 1958.

    NN4X reported from Florida on 12-meter FT8 activity on November 14.

    "12 meters was in great shape!




    134500

     



    1

     



    0.1

     



    1225

     



    ~

     



    DL1EZ

     



    TZ1CE

     



    -14

     




    134500

     



    3

     



    -0.5

     



    1596

     



    ~

     



    OQ4U

     



    KM8AM

     



    R-07

     




    134500

     



    20

     



    0.5

     



    1786

     



    ~

     



    PY2GG

     



    EA8TH

     



    R+12

     




    134500

     



    13

     



    0.3

     



    2058

     



    ~

     



    SM7DLK

     



    WA8NLX

     



    EM92

     




    134500

     



    9

     



    0.2

     



    1976

     



    ~

     



    CQ

     



    OZ7PBI

     



    JO45

     




    134500

     



    2

     



    -0.4

     



    1712

     



    ~

     



    SV2DFK

     



    V51LZ

     



    RR73

     




    134500

     



    0

     



    0.0

     



    2107

     



    ~

     



    CQ

     



    EA1DR

     



    IN82

     




    134500

     



    -9

     



    0.1

     



    629

     



    ~

     



    9J2BS

     



    EA4CYQ

     



    IM78

     




    134500

     



    -20

     



    -0.2

     



    1393

     



    ~

     



    9J2BS

     



    YB9WIC

     



    R-13

     




    134500

     



    -18

     



    0.0

     



    994

     



    ~

     



    CQ

     



    S79VU

     



    LI75

     




    134530

     



    20

     



    0.5

     



    1786

     



    ~

     



    PY2GG

     



    EA8TH

     



    R+12

     




    134530

     



    28

     



    0.1

     



    862

     



    ~

     



    EA8AAH

     



    W4AFB

     



    EL98

     




    134530

     



    -5

     



    -0.4

     



    1712

     



    ~

     



    4Z4DX

     



    V51LZ

     



    R+01

     




    134530

     



    -13

     



    0.1

     



    1225

     



    ~

     



    DL1EZ

     



    TZ1CE

     



    -14

     



    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW (FN20jq), wrote:

    "Yikes, October out-of-season single-hop sporadic-E is active on the 6 meter band along the east coast! On Saturday, October 17, 2100 - 2300 UTC, it is 25 days past the autumnal equinox. Once again, the unexpected happens during the early recovery out of a solar minimum. I was monitoring FT8 on 50.313 MHz for Es to show up along the Gulf of Mexico coastal region. Then it happened - the first direct decodes in monitoring mode: W4KBX in EL98 (central Florida) and K2IL in EL97 (south-central Florida, north of Lake Okeechobee.

    "Now that the band is open with Es expanding farther south, I decided to try for any contacts down on the SSB calling frequency, 50.125 MHz. When I rolled down there, several operators were already having conversations about how pleasant [it was] that the band came back to life since the summer months.

    "At 2252 UTC, I put out the first CQ, and AG4N, Bill from West Point, Georgia, very close to the Alabama state line replied. From my QTH to AG4N, azimuth 230°, distance 771 miles. I gave Bill a 4 x 7 signal report with QSB. 

    "The Es was being funneled as far away as Mobile, Alabama (996 miles), and Biloxi, Mississippi (1,045 miles).

    "By 2335 UTC, the band started to collapse with signal reports sliding down to 2 x 2. No double-hop Es from Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, or other northern Caribbean Sea islands was heard.

    "Even if the band conditions sound dead, I urge everyone to continue monitoring the 6-meter SSB calling frequency, 50.125 MHz, then take it one step farther and call CQ. You might be pleasantly rewarded, even if you are running 10 W into a 6-meter horizontal half-wave dipole less than 8 feet off the ground."

    Here[4] is the November 14 forecast from the Space Weather Woman, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for November 12 - 18 were 27, 24, 11, 0, 0, 11, and 11, with a mean of 12. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 85.1, 81.9, 80.2, 78.7, 76.6, 79.1, and 77.3, with a mean of 79.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 3, 4, 2, 3, and 4, with a mean of 3.1. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 2, 2, 0, 3, and 3, with a mean of 2.1.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website. 

    Share[11] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://pskreporter.info/
    [2] https://bit.ly/36Pb0J7
    [3] https://bit.ly/3pOtbHE
    [4] https://youtu.be/HCBth8nS79w
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 27 21:44:30 2020
    11/27/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Over the past week our sun has been quite active, with rising sunspot numbers and solar flux showing strong evidence that Solar Cycle 25 is progressing.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 12 last week to 27.9 in the current week, while solar flux rose to a high of 103.7, bringing average daily solar flux up from 79.8 to 90.1.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 3.1 to 9.9, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 2.1 to 7.7.

    Predicted solar flux is 106, 108, and 105 on November 27 - 29, 102 on November 30 - December 4; 92, 88, and 85 on December 5 - 7; 82, 80, and 78 on December 8 - 10; 75 on December 11 - 17; 77, 80, 90, and 92 on December 18 - 21; 94 on December 22 - 25; 92 on December 26 - January 1, 88, 85, 82, 80, and 78 on January 2 - 6, and 75 on January 7 - 10.

    The Planetary A Index forecast shows values of 8 on November 27; 5 on November 28 - December 17; 12, 24, and 18 on December 18 - 20; 10, 12, and 10 on December 21 - 23; 5 on December 24 - 29; 8 on December 30 - 31, and 5 on January 1 - 10.

    Solar flux is measured three times a day[1] in Penticton, British Columbia, Canada, and values have risen steadily in the past few days. Starting at 2200 UTC on November 24, they were 99.6, 102.8, 103.7, 104, 105.7, 105.8 and 110.2. The official daily flux value is taken at 2000 UTC (noon local time in Penticton). See the article[2], "The Solar Flux Radio Telescope at Penticton BC" by John White ,VA7JW.

    Here' the geomagnetic activity forecast for November 27 - December 22 from J. K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on December 7, 12-14, (15-16)


    o quiet to unsettled on November 29-30, December 1-2, 6, 8, 11


    o quiet to active on November 27-28, December 3-5, 9-10, 17, 22


    o unsettled to active December 18, 21


    o active to disturbed December 19-20


    o solar wind will intensify on November (30,) December (2,) 3-5, (9,) 17-19



    Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of change remains lower because of some ambiguous indications, and the situation is rapidly changing - an indicator of further growth in activity.

    Jon Jones, N0JK, reported on November 25, that sporadic E was picking up on 6 meters as Thanksgiving approached:

    K0GU (DN70) into northeast Kansas via Es on 50.313 MHz ~ 2344 UTC has -12 dB signals on FT8 on November 24.

    K0GU made a number of contacts into the St. Louis and W9 areas. Also saw AC4TO (EM70) in Florida working Brazil ~ 0050 UTC on November 25. May have been a sporadic E link to TEP or possibly direct TEP. And this spot:

    PY1MHZ        20/11/25          0057Z  50313.0 Into EM70    AC4TO

    KA3JAW reported November 25, sporadic e, both double- and triple-hop rolled-up on 10 meters for 6 hours starting around 1253 UTC and continuing until 1921 UTC. Background noise level was 4 dBm on the meter. The following countries, states were heard: Trinidad, West Indies, Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Washington, as well as Canada. Texas was the most-heard state. What was different with this event was the lack of southeastern states.

    Bill Herzberg, AA8WH, of Dearborn Heights, Michigan, reported that 10 meters is alive and well.

    "Starting after noon on November 25, I decided to check out the 6 and 10-meter FT8 frequencies. Wasn't much happening on 6, only heard a few calls, so I moved down to 10. Boy, what a difference; 10-meter FT8 signals were coming in from all over the place.

    "I decided to go down to the sideband portion and see what was going on. Heard lots of SSB stations around 28.4. Heard some more above that.

    "Went down to 28.3, and heard several really strong stations.

    "Went down to the beacon subband, heard [a lot of] beacon stations, some doubling up on frequencies.

    "So I went down to 12 meters. Heard several SSB stations, FT8 was hopping; 15 was wide open, as was 17, and 20 was also going strong.

    "I think it was a combination of better conditions and a lot of folks [being] home for the holidays.

    "Nice to hear the bands open. It's a taste of what's coming, when it will be possible to work the world with a few watts. Those times are coming, and it won't be soon enough for me.

    "

    Thanks to Paul, NO0T, for this recording[3] of Scott McIntosh's presentation to the Front Range 6 Meter Group concerning Solar Cycle 25. Some of what he reports is quite startling and optimistic.

    Barring some disturbance, operators in this weekend's CQ World Wide CW DX[4] Contest could experience the best conditions in years. Coming up in 2 weeks is the ARRL 10 Meter Contest[5], which will especially benefit from higher solar activity.

    See this article[6] on helioseismology and sunspot prediction.

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, is very excited[7] about the new solar activity.

    Sunspot numbers for November 19 - 25 were 11, 11, 23, 35, 38, 37, and 40, with a mean of 27.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 76.7, 81.7, 85, 87.7, 95.5, 100.4, and 103.7, with a mean of 90.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 8, 12, 27, 8, 4, and 7, with a mean of 9.9. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 9, 19, 7, 4, and 4, with a mean of 7.7.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[10] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

    Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[14] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
    [2] http://archive.nsarc.ca/hf/drao_solar.pdf
    [3] https://youtu.be/lRNJPkQPo_g
    [4] https://www.cqww.com/
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [6] https://bit.ly/39gIAdD
    [7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6L-FutZmw8
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 4 18:16:04 2020
    12/04/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot Cycle 25 is 1 year old, and increasing solar activity continues to surprise and amaze.

    Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled every week over the past few weeks. Two weeks ago, we reported average daily sunspot numbers of 12. Last week, the average was 27.9. This week the average daily sunspot number at sits at 57.6.

    In the past week the highest daily sunspot number was 84 on Sunday, November 29, and solar flux also peaked that day, at 116.3, pushing the week's average solar flux to 108.1, up from 90.1 over the previous 7 days, and from 79.8 the week prior to that.

    Geomagnetic indicators were moderate, despite several solar flares, including a solar flare on November 29 that was the most powerful solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) in the new solar cycle - a sure sign of increasing activity. It was not Earth-directed, however. Here's a Michigan Live report[1], and a report[2] received from Frank Donovan, W3LPL.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 100, 95, 90, 85, and 80 on December 4 - 8; 75 on December 9 - 11; 85 on December 12; 82 on December 13 - 16; 85, 90, and 100 on December 17 - 19; 105 on December 20 - 21; 108 on December 22; 110 on December 23 - 25; 115 on December 26 - 27; 113 on December 28 - 30; 110 on December 31; 105 and 103 on January 1 - 2; 95 on January 3 - 4; 92 and 88 on January 5 - 6; 85 on January 7 - 8; 82 on January 9 - 12; 85, 90, and 100 on January 13 - 15, and 105 on January 16 - 17.

    Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on December 4 - 17; 12, 20, and 8 on December 18 - 20; 5 on December 21 - 22; 8, 10, and 8 on December 23 - 25; 5 on December 26 - January 13, and 12, 20, 8, and 5 on January 14 - 17.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, reports the geomagnetic activity forecast for December 4 - 29. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on December 6 - 7, 12 - 13, (14 - 16)


    o quiet to unsettled on December 8 - 11, 21, 28


    o quiet to active on December 4 ( - 5), 17, 22 - 23, 26, 29


    o unsettled to active December 18, 20, (24 - ) 25, (27)


    o active to disturbed December 19


    o Solar wind will intensify on December 4, (5 - 8, 11, 19,) 20 - 22, (23,) 27 (28 - 29)



    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Jeff Hartley, N8II, reports from FM19cj in Shepherdstown, West Virginia:

    "About 10 days does not make an average, but I can never remember such a sudden sustained increase in SFI as the new cycle begins. Perhaps October 1978 may have been similar, but I assume that flux was already fairly high in the preceding months, and the new cycle was only about a year from the peak.

    "Conditions - or at least activity - seemed to be down a bit in the week preceding the CQ World Wide CW contest until Friday, which seemed better. Twenty meters was a bit disappointing at the Saturday November 0000 UTC start, with most DX coming from southern South America.

    "D4Z on Cape Verde was loud and continued to be loud through most of the weekend on 20.

    "I managed a marginal scatter with Italy beaming at 150° (over Brazil).

    "Moving to 40 at 0023 UTC, signals were loud from Germany and Hungary farther south. At 0121, 7Q6M Malawi and CR3W Madeira Islands were logged easily on 40. On 80 at 0220, I could work EU excluding Russia north of the Black Sea area and the Baltic States, but signals were not that loud. 160 was very tough, with large pile-ups on North American DX and not much readable from Africa or Europe.

    "I resumed on 20 at 1158 UTC about 10 minutes before sunrise, and the band was already full of loud Europeans even open already to Russia. Signal levels were very good with high activity. R8WF in Asia (but still in the EU Russian Zone 16) was my best DX to the east.

    "By 1309, signals from EU were building nicely on 15 from nearly all corners. Some of my first contacts were OH3077F in Finland, RL6M southern Russia, LY4T Lithuania, and UT7NY Ukraine. By 1430, northern EU was mostly gone on 15, but I maintained a good EU QSO rate until about 1522. A brief visit to 10 then found Spain (very weak), Canary Islands, Puerto Rico, French Guiana, and Cayman Islands. Then it was back to 20 with good western EU conditions until about 1700, staying there working Europe until 1721. 5H3EE Tanzania went into my 15-meter log at 1735.

    "Starting at 1741, 10 was open well into Chile and Argentina, and a bit less so to Brazil. The 10-meter SA opening was starting to fade at 1900. Back on 20 at 1927, there was a good auroral sporadic-E opening to Scandinavia on 20. ZM1M New Zealand had a good long path signal at 1953, as did VK4TS in Queensland, Australia, shortly after that.

    "On 15, starting at 2015, I worked New Zealand, Australia, Hawaii, and Alaska. A quick check of 10 at 2105 yielded five contacts with loud Hawaiians. I worked the first Japanese station, JA1ZGO, at 2125, but the auroral curtain was like a wall, and only big gun JAs were worked through 2355. I heard three Chinese stations due north from here, but didn't make any contacts.

    "At sunset 2151, southern SA was loud, and I was thrilled to work JR1GSE at 2157. The low-band conditions were not good to northern EU on any band during the evening, but 40 did stay open to some extent to southern EU through 0200. Eighty-meter signals from Europe were down, and signals on 160 very weak.

    "I managed some quick QSOs on 40 to UN9L, Kazakhstan; VK3GI, Australia, and ZM1A, New Zealand starting at 1133. Twenty was not fully open to EU at 1152, but much better 10 minutes later.

    "I logged many EU over the next 70 minutes and was thrilled to be called by EX8MJ Kyrgyzstan who was weak, and UN0L. At 1304, I found good EU signals on 15, and soon some incredibly loud signals 20, peaking to 30 dB over S-9. Even stations in northern and northeastern Europe were very workable, but weaker.

    "4L6QL, Georgia was my best DX to the east. At 1424, there was a weak opening to EU on 10. I logged Italy, Slovak Republic, and France, and CR3DX on Madeira (Africa). At 1524 on 10, I found ZD7BG, St. Helena Island, and at 1603 Croatia, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and 7Q6M Malawi. CR6K in Portugal was still heard at 1730, very late. The opening to EU on 15 lasted late, still okay but fading at 1650. I was able to keep a good EU QSO rate going on 20 through 1743, much later than on Saturday."

    On December 3, N7RP reported from New Mexico:

    "This morning a little after 8 AM local time, I worked HS0ZGC (Thailand) on 12 meters on FT8. He was working South American stations, and I did not see any other US stations work HS0ZGC other than me. I am just running 100 W to a vertical, so I have no idea what path it was. It was amazing, since it must have been around midnight there. He immediately uploaded to LoTW, so the contact is confirmed."

    N7RP's QRZ.com profile[3] includes a narrative about his life in ham radio.

    A 6,000-kilometer transequitorial propagation (TEP) contact between Aruba and Argentina on 2 meter SSB was reported[4].

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, reported from Easton, Pennsylvania (FN20jq):

    "On Monday, November 30, 11-meter CB (27 MHz) was very active from coast to coast.

    "Even if you're under heavy rain, with severe thunderstorms you still can detect stations via sporadic E well past the 2,600-mile (4,184-kilometer) range. Background noise levels varied between 3 to 5 dBm.

    'Here are the locations I heard, distance, and sporadic-E hops:


    o AZ (Tempe) - 2,072 miles (3,334 kilometers) (2x)


    o CA (Los Angeles) - 2,384 (3836 kilometers) miles (2x)


    o CA (San Diego) - 2,366 miles (3,807 kilometers) (2x)


    o CO (Denver) - 1,567 miles (2,521 kilometers) (1x)


    o MT (Bozeman) - 1,823 miles (2,933 kilometers) (2x)


    o NM (Albuquerque) - 1,749 (2,814 kilometers) (1x)


    o NV (Los Vegas) - 2,167 miles (3,487 kilometers) (2x)


    o OK (Oklahoma City) - 1,261 miles (2,029 kilometers) (1x)


    o PR (San Juan) - 2,625 miles (4,224 kilometers) (2x)


    o TX (San Antonio) - 1,524 miles (2,452 kilometers) (1x)


    o TX (El Paso) - 1,839 miles (2,959 kilometers) (2x)


    o UT (Salt Lake City) - 1,908 miles (3,070 kilometers) (2x)


    o WA (Seattle) - 2,349 miles (3,780 kilometers) (2x)


    o Canada, Alberta (Calgary) - 1,974 miles (3,176 kilometers) (2x)


    o Canada, British Columbia (Vancouver) - 2,377 miles (3,825 kilometers) (2x)


    o Jamaica (Kingston) - 1,569 miles (2,525 kilometers) (1x)



    Sunspot numbers for November 26 - December 2 were 43, 60, 67, 84, 62, 46, and 41, with a mean of 57.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 105.8, 106.3, 109.6, 116.3, 109.4, 104.1, and 104.9, with a mean of 108.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 10, 6, 8, 2, and 4, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 7, 9, 6, 6, 2, and 4, with a mean of 5.6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/2JJ3veM
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/news/powerful-solar-flare-coronal-mass-ejection-occur-on-november-29
    [3] https://www.qrz.com/lookup/n7rp
    [4] https://bit.ly/2JJ3veM
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 11 18:33:27 2020
    12/11/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity quieted this week, with the average daily sunspot number declining from 57.6 to 28.9, and the average daily solar flux softening from 108.1 to 91.9. On December 8 - 10, the sunspot number was 11 on each day, which is the minimum non-zero sunspot number.

    Sunspot group 2786 provided some great activity, but it is about to rotate off the sun's visible surface. But a look at STEREO satellite images[1] on Thursday night (December 10) shows some magnetic complexity about to became geo-effective from the sun's southern hemisphere. This could mean more great conditions.

    The average daily planetary A index went from 6.4 to 4.4, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 5.6 to 3.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 82 on December 11 - 12; 84 on December 13 - 14; 80 on December 15 - 18; 92 on December 19 - 24; 94 on December 25 - 28; 96, 94, and 92 on December 29 - 31; 90 on January 1 - 4; 88 on January 5 - 7; 86 on January 8 - 11; 84, 85, and 88 on January 12 - 14; 92 on January 15 - 20, and 94 on January 21 - 24.

    The forecast for the planetary A index shows 12, 8, and 8 on December 11 - 13; 5 on December 14 - 18; 20 and 8 on December 19 - 20; 5 on December 21 - 22; 8, 10, and 8 on December 23 - 25; 5 on December 26 - January 5; 10 and 8 on January 6 - 7; 5 on January 8 - 13; 12, 20, and 8 on January 14 - 16; 5 on January 17 - 18; 8, 10, and 8 on January 19 - 21, and 5 on January 22 - 24.

    Daily updates[2] of these numbers are available, typically after 2120 UTC, from the Space Weather Prediction Center.

    A coronal mass ejection on December 7 was expected to spark a geomagnetic storm on December 10-11, which is why the planetary A index was predicted at 40, 25, 8, and 8 on December 10-13. This was revised to the forecast of December 10, above. Minnesota Public Radio aired a story[3] on what happened and how we missed the storm.

    The ARRL 10-Meter Contest is this weekend, much anticipated because of recent increased solar activity. I was concerned about the forecast from earlier in the week, but now it looks like good conditions are expected. Around this time each December, sporadic-E activity is possible, as well as enhancement from the Geminids meteor shower. This year the shower does not peak until the day after the contest, December 14, but it's already under way.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for December 11 - January 5 from F.K. Janda. OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on December 13, (29,) January 12, 4


    o quiet to unsettled on December 1416, 21, January 5


    o quiet to active on December 12, 1718, 2223, 26, 30


    o unsettled to active December (11, 24,) 2526, (27,) 31, (January 3)


    o active to disturbed December 19 (-20,) 28


    o solar wind will intensify on December (11, 19,) 2022, (23,)


    o 27 (28-29, January 5)



    Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Max White, M0VNG, shared this article[4] about the European Space Agency's Solar Orbiter.

    Tony Dixon, G4CJC, compiles a weekly 10-meter report[5], which is posted by Southgate Amateur Radio News.

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has posted her latest forecast[6].

    Here's another article[7] about that optimistic Solar Cycle 25 forecast:

    "Massive sunspot AR 2786" is the focus of this article[8] in The Arcadian.

    Some great images[9] from Sky and Telescope show the transition of sunspot group 2786:

    Sunspot numbers for December 3 - 9 were 40, 38, 42, 25, 35, 11, and 11, with a mean of 28.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 102.9, 95.8, 99.9, 90.9, 89.5, 82.4, and 82.1, with a mean of 91.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 5, 6, 3, 5, and 7, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 1, 1, 4, 4, 2, 4, and 6, with a mean of 3.1.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[10] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[11] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[12] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[13] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[14] website.

    Instructions[15] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[16] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [3] https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/12/10/solar-storm-fizzles-but-solar-cycle-25-is-just-starting
    [4] https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Solar_Orbiter/Solar_Orbiter_turning_pictures_into_physics
    [5] http://www.southgatearc.org/bands/10metres/2020/december/december-10.htm#.X9NujlVKiUl
    [6] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgB8JxYcQFE
    [7] https://news.ucar.edu/132771/new-sunspot-cycle-could-be-one-strongest-record
    [8] https://www.yoursun.com/arcadia/arts_entertainment/fresh-take-massive-sunspot-ar-2786-biggest-in-years-3x-earths-size/article_711d6280-395e-11eb-83ed-1f6d65750b76.html
    [9] https://skyandtelescope.org/online-gallery/transition-of-sunspot-ar2786/ [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [16] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 18 17:50:26 2020
    12/18/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity has declined, with the weekly average daily sunspot number slipping from 57.6 last reporting week to 17.4 over the past week.

    Solar flux averages also slipped over the past 2 weeks from 108.1 to 91.9 and to 82.1 over the most recent week. The latest solar flux prediction also appears soft. Solar flux is expected to peak at 86 on December 26-28, hit a low at 82 on January 1-10, and then peak again at 86 on January 21-24.

    Predicted values over the next 45 days are 82 on December 18 - 24; 83 on December 25; 86 on December 26 - 28; 85, 84, and 83 on December 29 - 31; 82 on January 1 - January 10; 83, 83, and 84 on January 11 - 13; 85 on January 14 - 20; 86 on January 21 - 24; 85, 84, and 83 on January 25 - 27, and 82 on January 28 - 31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 18 - 20; 12 on December 21; 8 on December 22 - 25; 5 on December 26 - January 4; 10 on January 5 - 6; 5 on January 7 - 12; 8 on January 13; 5 on January 14 - 16; 10, 12, and 10 on January 17 - 19; 8 on January 20 - 21, and 5 on January 22 - 31.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for December 18 - January 12, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on December 28, January 4, 12


    o quiet to unsettled on December 23, 29, 31, January 1, 3 - 4


    o quiet to active on December 18, 24 - 27, 30, January 6, 8, 10 - 11


    o unsettled to active December 19, 22, January 2, 5, 7, 9


    o active to disturbed December 20 - 21


    o Solar wind will intensify on December (20,) 21 ( - 23, 25,) 27 (28 - 29,) (January 1 - 3, 7 - 8)



    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    I noticed after the ARRL 10-Meter Contest[1] last weekend that K7RL had claimed an impressive score of 379,680. Checking his QRZ.com profile, I saw that he's not only surrounded by salt water on an island in Puget Sound but has an amazing collection of steel and aluminum in the air. He commented to the Western Washington DX Club email list:

    "That was much more fun than expected. Every contest has that moment when an interesting mult calls in, or you hit a great opening. My moment was being called by ZD7BG on SSB.

    "When the big openings hit both days, you had to be ready to step on the gas and run like crazy because it could end just as quickly. There was always some activity, it was mostly a matter of volume and signal strength. Some signals lasted seconds, if even that, while others were there almost all weekend like KV0Q and K0RF."

    Another impressive effort, but on a much different scale, was K6ARK's solo SOTA operation[2].

    The National Science Foundation has published an article[3], "New sunspot cycle could be one of the strongest on record."

    An article[4] in Otago Daily Times celebrated the return of sunspots in New Zealand.

    Sunspot numbers for December 10 - 16 were 11, 11, 24, 14, 25, 25, and 12, with a mean of 17.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 81.5, 83.3, 81.8, 80.6, 83, 82.9, and 81.9, with a mean of 82.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 4, 5, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 4.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, and 3, with a mean of 3.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFHHdzRgd7U
    [3] https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=301825
    [4] https://www.odt.co.nz/lifestyle/magazine/return-sunspots
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Tue Dec 29 21:27:58 2020
    12/25/2020

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Merry Christmas!

    Sunspots went missing last Friday and Saturday, but large new sunspot group 2794 appeared on Sunday, December 21, and on Wednesday, Spaceweather.com[1] reported new sunspot group 2795 emerging over our sun's southeastern limb.

    This disappearance depressed the average weekly sunspot number, which went from 17.4 last week to 10.3 this week, ending on Wednesday, December 23. Our reporting week runs from Thursday through Wednesday.

    In spite of lower sunspot numbers, the average daily solar flux increased slightly from 82.1 to 82.8.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.7 to 7.3, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 3.3 to 6. These are still low numbers, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions, so 160-meter propagation remains good, also aided by lower seasonal atmospheric noise as winter begins in the Northern Hemisphere.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is

    88 on December 25 - 30; 86 on December 31; 84 on January 1 - 6; 82 on January 7 - 12; 84 on January 13 - 20, and 86 on January 21 - 23.

    Predicted geomagnetic indicators for the same period have the planetary A index at 15 and 8 on December 25 - 26; 5 on December 27 - January 4; 10 on January 5 - 6; 5 on January 7 - 12; 8 on January 13; 5 on January 14 - 16; 12, 8, and 18 on January 17 - 19, and 15, 10, 8, and 3 on January 20 - 23.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for December 25 - January 19 from OK1HH. Geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on January 4, 12 - 14


    o quiet to unsettled on December 28 - 31, January 1 - 3, 15


    o quiet to active on December 25 - 27, January 6, 8, 10 - 11, 16


    o unsettled to active January 2, 5, 7, 9, 17, 19


    o active to disturbed January 18


    o Solar wind will intensify on December (25,) 27 (28 - 29), (January 1 - 3, 7 - 9, 18,) 19



    Notes:

    -Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    -The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are ambiguous and changing indications.

    I wish you a blessed Christmas, positive thinking, and negative tests! - F. K. Janda, OK1HH, Czech Propagation Interest Group, compiling these geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since January 1978.

    Steve, NN4X, reported working a VK and a ZL via 15-meter long path around 1915 UTC on December 23 using FT8. NN4X is in Florida, southeast of Orlando. His antenna (two stacked six-element Yagis) is highly directional, so he has no doubt this was long path. He was also heard at 3D2 and KH6. He writes, "I've been a ham since 1977, and this stuff never gets boring!"

    Check out his impressive array of antennas listed on his QRZ.com[2] profile. He sent a PSK reporter[3] screenshot showing he was copied all over the world, except Asia.

    Jeff, N8II, wrote on December 19.

    "Today, we had two contests - the RAC and 9A CW (Croatia, everybody works everybody). 15 was a bit marginal into western Canada, but I worked MB, SK, AB, and BC plus several VE3s on backscatter. 15 meters was open to southern and central EU at the 1400 UTC 9A CW start, but with few loud signals. By 1500 UTC most activity disappeared. 20 meter signals were loud from both eastern and western Canada and Europe, with the band starting to close around 1615 UTC. My last EU QSOs were with Geoff, GM8OFQ, in the Orkney Islands (S-9 + 10dB) and Tom, G1IZQ, (S-9 with QSB) just after 1700 UTC.

    "Signals from EU have been weaker and openings much shorter on 15 meters in general this past week due to the drop in solar activity. One day I had a QSO with a loud Norwegian who was S-9 around 1400 UTC, but in general most signals have been from southern EU. 

    "Our sunsets are already later here by 3 minutes, but sunrises will get later until about December 31 due to the elliptical orbit of the Earth, so openings to the east will get later."

    Here's the latest[4] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for December 17 - 23 were 12, 0, 0, 11, 11, 11, and 27, with a mean of 10.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 81.6, 80.5, 81.7, 83.8, 79.6, 85.8, and 86.4, with a mean of 82.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 3, 5, 4, 12, 13, and 12, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 2, 2, 4, 4, 8, 11, and 11, with a mean of 6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] http://www.qrz.com/
    [3] https://pskreporter.info/
    [4] https://bit.ly/3aIEWKq
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 1 19:34:30 2021
    01/01/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar Ccle 25 is progressing normally, and with the new year, my outlook is optimistic. Solar minimum occurred just over a year ago (December 2019), and now we see very few days with no sunspots.

    Both of the current sunspot groups (2794 and 2795) are about to slip across the sun's western horizon.

    Average daily sunspot number this past week was 27.1, up from 10.3 the previous week. Average daily solar flux rose from 82.8 to 86.4.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 30 days is 81 and 80 on January 1 - 2; 79 on January 3 - 4; 78 on January 5 - 8; 84 on January 9 - 14; 85, 86, and 87 on January 15 - 17; 88 on January 18 - 28; 87 on January 29, and 86 on January 30. It then dips to 84 on February 1 - 10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 1 - 2; 8 and 5 on January 3 - 4; 8 on January 5 - 7; 5 on January 8 - 17; 10 on January 18 - 20; 8 on January 21; 5 on January 22 - 24; 10 on January 25, and 5 on January 26 - 30.

    When I check the STEREO website[1] any possible coming activity, I don't see anything obvious, but do not be surprised if new activity appears soon - perhaps before mid-January - along with the predicted higher flux values.

    Here's the geomagnetic forecast from J.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group for January 1 - 26, 2021. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on January 1, 3, 13 - 14


    o quiet to unsettled on January 2, 4, 8, 10, 12, 15 - 16, 21, 25 - 26


    o quiet to active on January 5 - 7, 9, 11, 17, 22 - 23


    o unsettled to active January 20, 24


    o active to disturbed January 18 - 19


    o Solar wind will intensify on January (1-3, 7-9, 19-20,) 21-22, (23, 25-26)



    Notes:

    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are ambiguous and changing indications.

    Wishing a Happy New Year, positive thinking, and negative tests!

    (The Czech Propagation Interest Group has been compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since January 1978.)

    Ted Leaf, K6HI, of Kona, Hawaii, shared another optimistic report[2] on new Solar Cycle 25. Here's more[3] on the NCAR prediction and the solar clock.

    Sunspot numbers for December 24 - 30, 2020, were 25, 30, 31, 26, 26, 26, and 26, with a mean of 27.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 87.4, 87.7, 87.9, 87.8, 87.2, 84.2, and 82.8, with a mean of 86.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 5, 4, 6, 7, 7, and 9, with a mean of 6.9. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 3, 4, 6, 5, and 6, with a mean of 5.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] https://earthsky.org/space/sunspot-cycle-25-among-strongest-on-record-says-ncar
    [3] https://www.ibtimes.com/prominent-scientists-predict-unusually-strong-solar-cycle-contradicting-previous-3110532
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 8 15:50:37 2021
    01/08/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots disappeared after January 2, so the average daily sunspot number dropped from 27.1 last week to 10 for the December 31 - January 6 reporting week. As a result, average daily solar flux declined as well, from 86.4 to 78.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet, with planetary A index changing from 6.9 to 5.1, and middle latitude numbers from 5 to 4.

    This decline was unexpected, and of course we would rather see more and more sunspots as Solar Cycle 25 progresses, but this is normal. We expect a lot of variability in any sunspot cycle.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days looks depressed - far different from the high 80s we saw around Christmas. Solar flux is expected at 74 on January 8 - 15; 80 on January 16; 82 on January 17 - 27; 80 on January 28 - 31, and 78 on February 1 - 6. Flux values may rise to 82 around mid - February.

    Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on January 8 - 9; 8 on January 10 - 11; 5 on January 12 - 16; 10 on January 17 - 20; 5 on January 21 - 24; 8 on January 25 - 26; 5 on January 27 - 31; then 10, 10, and 8 on February 1 - 3, and 5 on February 4 - 5. The A index may rise to 10 by mid-February.

    This prediction[1], prepared by the US Air Force, is updated daily, usually after 2120 UTC.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for January 8 - February 3 from J.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on January 10, 12-14, 22, 30-31


    o quiet to unsettled on January 11, 23, 27-29, February 1


    o quiet to active on January 8, 15-16, 21, 24-26


    o unsettled to active January 9, 17, 19-20, February 3


    o active to disturbed January 18, February 2


    o Solar wind will intensify on (January 8-9, 15-17, 19-20,) 21 (- 22, (23, 25-26,) February 2-3



    Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are ambiguous and changing indications, including rapidly emerging and disappearing narrow bands of solar coronal holes.

    Sunspot numbers for December 31 - January 6 were 25, 23, 22, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 10. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 81.2, 80.4, 81.5, 80.4, 77.6, 75.1, and 74.1, with a mean of 78.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 2, 2, 3, 11, and 11, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 1, 1, 3, 9, and 9, with a mean of 4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[4] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

    Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[8] your reports and observations. 


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 15 20:08:07 2021
    01/15/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: What happened? Solar Cycle 25 seemed well under way, but no new sunspots have emerged since December 23. The last time any sunspot was visible was January 2. On January 14, Spaceweather.com[1] posted, "Welcome back, solar minimum."

    Average daily solar flux declined from 78.6 to 73.8. Geomagnetic A index remained quiet. Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 73, 73, and 74 on January 14 - 16; 75 on January 17 - 19; 73 and 75 on January 20 - 21; 78 on January 22 - 27; 77 on January 28 - 31; 75 on February 1 - 6, and 74 on February 7 - 12. Solar flux is expected to peak at 78 again after February 14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 14 - 16; 10, 12, 10, and 8 on January 17 - 20; 5 on January 21 - 24; 8 on January 25 - 26; 5 on January 27 - 31; 10 on February 1 - 2, and 5 on February 3 - 12.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for January 15 - February 10, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on  January 22, 28 - 30, February 4, 10


    o quiet to unsettled on  January 23, 25, 27, February 5 - 6, 9


    o quiet to active on  January 15 - 16, 21, 24, 26, 31, February 1, 3


    o unsettled to active  January 17 - 20, February 2, 7 - 8


    o active to disturbed  none predicted


    o Solar wind will intensify on January (19 - 20,) 21, (25 - 27, 31) February (1,) 2 - 3



    Notes:

    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are ambiguous and changing indicators.

    Peering at the STEREO[2] spacecraft, at I see a promising bright spot a few days from now in our sun's southern hemisphere, so perhaps that indicates a new sunspot over the solar horizon. But I have been fooled by bright spots on STEREO in the past that did not emerge as sunspots.

    A few days ago, Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted this video[3].

    Jon Jones, N0JK, reports E-skip on 6 meters:

    "Sporadic-E on 50 MHz dropped off after the first week of January. There was a sporadic-E opening I found January 10 with K8TB (EN72) in on FT8 at 1937 UTC.

    "On January 14, a rare and unusual opening on 6 meters occurred between New England, VE1, and Europe. DK8NW and DK1MAX were spotted at 1415 UTC by WW1L (FN54).

    "HA2NP was spotted by VE1P UTC (FN85) at 1436 UTC.  VE1PZ was spotted by OH6MW at 1430 UTC calling CQ on 50.313 MHz FT8.

    "Propagation mode unclear but probably multi-hop sporadic-E. Solar flux only 73, unlikely to be F2."

    Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, gave an excellent talk on propagation for the Madison DX Club on January 12. The video[4] will be posted soon. Until then, you can also watch a presentation on Solar Cycle 25 by Douglas Biesecker of NOAA via the same link.

    Here's some more speculation[5] about Solar Cycle 25.

    WB8VLC in Salem, Oregon (CN84lv), sent an extensive listing of DX he's worked over the past few months, none of it using FT8 - just phone and CW. Recently on January 10 using a homemade Moxon antenna at 24 feet on 17 meters he worked TZ4AM on CW in Mali at 1903 UTC with 599 signals both ways, and a few minutes earlier at 1857 UTC on SSB he worked V51WH in Namibia, with S-9 signals that persisted for 2 hours.

    In late November on 10 meter FM, he worked Brazil, Costa Rica, and Jamaica.

    He wrote, "I like to promote the upper bands 10 and 12 meters to show that they are open more often than one would think."

    Sunspot numbers for January 7 - 13 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 74.6, 75.2, 74.2, 73.1, 73.2, 72.8, and 73.2, with a mean of 73.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 2, 3, 3, 14, 9, and 4, with a mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 1, 2, 3, 10, 8, and 3, with a mean of 4.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [3] https://youtu.be/x07w9xAqCSw
    [4] http://www.madisondxclub.org/MDXC_Programs.html
    [5] https://www.universetoday.com/149468/will-solar-cycle-25-dazzle-or-fizzle-in-2021/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Thu Jan 21 19:22:32 2021
    01/21/2021

    We just witnessed 12 consecutive days with no sunspots, which many of us found a bit unsettling. But fortunately Solar Cycle 25 activity returned with a new sunspot on January 15.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from zero last week, to 14.7 in the January 14-20 reporting period.

    Average daily solar flux rose from 73.8 to 76.1, and geomagnetic indicators sank to very quiet levels. Average daily planetary A index dropped from 5.9 to 4, and average daily middle latitude A index from 4.4 to 3.

    The outlook for the next month looks good. Predicted daily solar flux for the next 30 days is 80 on January 21 - 28; 75 on January 29 - February 3; 76 for February 4 - 10; 77 for February 11 -17, and 76 on February 18 - 19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10, and 8 on January 21 - 23; 5 on January 24 - 25; 8 on January 26 - 28; 5 on January 29 - 31; 10 on February 1 - 2; 5 on February 3 - 13; 10, 10, 12, and 10 on February 14 - 17, and 5 on February 18 - 19.

    Sunspot numbers for January 14 - 20 were 0, 13, 15, 23, 13, 14, and 25, with a mean of 14.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.6, 73.4, 77.7, 77.2, 75.3, 78.1, and 77.2, with a mean of 76.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 6, and 6, with a mean of 4. Middle latitude A index was 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, and 5, with a mean of 3.

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 22 20:25:31 2021
    01/22/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: We just witnessed 12 consecutive days with no sunspots, which many of us found a bit unsettling. Fortunately, Solar Cycle 25 activity returned with new sunspot 2796 on January 15. Instead of moving from the east across the solar horizon, it emerged in the southern hemisphere, just west of center.

    Currently we are seeing sunspot regions 2797 and 2798, which emerged in the southeast, and looking at images from the STEREO spacecraft, I see another bright spot on the horizon.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from zero last week, to 14.7 in the January 14 - 20 reporting period.

    Average daily solar flux rose from 73.8 to 76.1, and geomagnetic indicators sank to very quiet levels. Average daily planetary A index dropped from 5.9 to 4, and average daily middle latitude A index from 4.4 to 3.

    The outlook for the next month looks good. Predicted daily solar flux for the next 30 days is 80 on January 22-28; 75 on January 29 - February 3; 76 on February 4 - 10; 77 on February 11 - 17, and 76 on February 18-20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 22 - 26; 8 on January 27 - 28, 5 on January 29 - 31; 10 on February 1 - 2; 5 on February 3 - 13; 10, 10, 12, and 10 on February 14 - 17, and 5 on February 18 - 20.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for January 22 - February 17 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on January 22, 28 - 30, February 4, 10


    o quiet to unsettled on January 23, 27, February 5 - 6, 9 - 13, 17


    o quiet to active on January 24 - 26, 31, February 1, 3, 7, 14 - 16


    o unsettled to active February 2, 8


    o no active to disturbed days


    o solar wind will intensify on January (25 - 27, 31,) February (1,) 2 - 3, (4, 8 - 10, 15 - 16).



    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of changes is much lower than previously, as there are very ambiguous indications.

    Ken, N4SO, in Grand Bay, Alabama reports good results running 1 W into an inverted V on 80 meter CW. On January 15 at 0730 UTC, he worked V31MA in Belize. He is having fun late nights on 30 meters running FT8 and getting worldwide contacts.

    Here's a video[1] of the recent propagation talk by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, at the Madison DX Club.

    Sunspot numbers for January 14 - 20 were 0, 13, 15, 23, 13, 14, and 25, with a mean of 14.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.6, 73.4, 77.7, 77.2, 75.3, 78.1, and 77.2, with a mean of 76.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 6, and 6, with a mean of 4. Middle latitude A index was 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, and 5, with a mean of 3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[4] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

    Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[8] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/39SXS75
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 29 20:46:10 2021
    01/29/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity increased this week. We saw no spotless days, and the average daily sunspot number rose from 14.7 to 28.1. Average daily solar flux was up from 76.1 to 77.2.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 4 to 9.4, due to a minor geomagnetic storm on Monday. On that day Alaska's High Latitude College A Index was 33.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 76, 75, 74, and 74 on January 29 - February 1; 72, 70, 70, and 72 on February 2 - 5; 76 on February 6 - 10; 77 on February 11 - 20; 76 on February 21 - 2, and 75 on February 25 - 27.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 5, and 8 on January 29 - 31; 18, 12, and 8 on February 1 - 3; 5 on February 4 - 6; 10 on February 7 - 8; 5 on February 9 - 19; 8, 12, and 12 on February 20 - 22, and 5 on February 23 - 27.

    Even after a nice stretch of days with sunspots, the 10.7-centimeter solar flux seems weak. Last week and this week we reported average daily solar flux of 73.8 and 78.6. But toward the end of 2020, the three bulletins reporting data from November 19 - December 9 had average daily solar flux at 90.1, 108.1, and 91.9.

    On Thursday Spaceweather.com[1] reported a sunspot number of 26 and showed an image of two active regions on the sun, 2800 and 2797, but NOAA SESC showed[2] a sunspot number of zero for the same day. The NOAA SESC file is the only source used for sunspot numbers reported in this report.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 29 - February 24 from F.K Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on January 29 - 31, February 4, 10, (24)


    o quiet to unsettled on February 5 - 6, 9 - 13, 17, 19


    o quiet to active on February 1, 3, 7, 14 - 16, 18, 20, 22 - 23


    o unsettled to active February (2, 8, 21)


    o active to disturbed none predicted


    o Solar wind will intensify on January (31,) February (1,) 2 - 3, (4, 8 - 10, 15 - 17, 20 - 21,) 22 - 24, (25)



    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of changes remains low, as indicators are ambiguous.

    We ran across this Universe Today article[3] about tree rings as an indicator of historical solar activity

    This weekend is the CW portion of the CQ 160-Meter Contest[4]. Geomagnetic activity is quite low, which is a favorable indication for 160 meters.

    Imagine, if you will, the worst possible solar flare, maybe worse than the infamous Carrington Event, the one that made aurora visible all the way down to the equator and set fire to telegraph offices. Some smart people have done just that. Try not to scare yourself while reading this article[5] from the American Geophysical Union.

    Presentations[6] from last weekend's Propagation Summit are available.

    The Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has a new mini-course[7].

    KA3JAW enjoys monitoring the FM broadcast band and the 11-meter band for E-skip. He reported from Pennsylvania.

    Nothing heard on the FM band, but Monday, January 25, was a great radio day for both single-hop and double-hop sporadic-e (Es) on 11 meters.

    The spectacular event started early in the morning at 1145 UTC until late afternoon (2154 UTC). It all began with reception of short-hop Es into southern Maine at 7 AM. Signal was 20 dB over S-9 at a range of 300+ miles.

    At 2 PM ET, double-hop Es western stations were heard, AZ, CA, UT, WA and Alberta, Canada.

    And if that was not enough, I was hearing west coast stations calling out to HI.

    Around 3:45 PM ET, western states, southern Texas (Houston, San Antonio, Waco) along with Florida (Tampa) were heard. 

    Twenty-one states, two Canadian (Ontario and Alberta) and one Mexican (Tijuana), were heard. The list includes AL, AZ, CA, CT, FL, GA, IA, IN, KY, LA, ME, MI, MS, NC, OH, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, and WA.

    Sunspot numbers for January 21 - 27 were 26, 39, 34, 23, 26, 23, and 26, with a mean of 28.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 77.6, 78.2, 77.9, 77.6, 77.1, 75.7, and 76.3, with a mean of 77.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 5, 5, 17, 21, and 11, with a mean of 9.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 3, 4, 14, 9, and 9, with a mean of 6.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[10] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

    Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[14] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [3] https://www.universetoday.com/149733/tree-rings-reveal-1000-years-of-solar-activity/
    [4] https://www.cq160.com/
    [5] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020SW002489
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/news/2021-propagation-summit-session-recordings-available
    [7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5aHtY2eufs
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 12 02:18:37 2021
    02/05/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: We just witnessed 5 days in a row with zero sunspots, but on February 2 a small sunspot group (2801) appeared on our sun's northwest limb. It soon rotated off the sun's visible area, and on February 4, the sunspot number was back to zero.

    We will probably see a few more days with no sunspots, but a return after February 11 is possible, when increased solar flux is forecast.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 28.1 reported in last week's bulletin ARLP005 to 3.3 this week. Average daily solar flux dropped 3 points from 77.2 to 74.2. Average daily planetary A index went from 9.4 to 6.7.

    Solar flux over the next 30 days is predicted at 74 on February 5 - 11; 76 on February 12 - 16; 78 on February 17 - 22; 76 on February 23 - 25; 74 on February 26; 73 on February 27 - March 1, and 72 on March 2 - 7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 16, and 10 on February 5 - 8; 8 on February 9 - 10; 5 on February 11 - 20; 20, 16, and 12 on February 21 - 23; 5 on February 24-27; 18, 12, and 8 on February 28 - March 2; 5 on March 3 - 5, and 10 on March 6 - 7. A coronal hole may return on March 20 - 21 causing a rising A index.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for February 5 - March 2 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on February 18 - 19, 26 - 27


    o quiet to unsettled on February 5 - 6, 9 - 13, 17, 24 - 25


    o quiet to active on February 7 - 8 , 14 - 16, 20, 23, 28


    o unsettled to active February 21 - 22, March 1 - 2


    o active to disturbed nothing predicted


    o solar wind will intensify on February (8 - 10, 15 - 17, 20 - 22,) 23 - 24, (25 - 28) 

    Notes: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Predictability of changes remains low, as indications remain ambiguous.

    Jon Jones, N0JK, reported, "Had some sporadic-E on 50 MHz the evening of February 1 (February 2 UTC). XE2TT (DL44) in on 50.313 MHz, 0205 UTC. Was on Saturday night for a couple of hours January 31 UTC for the CQ 160-Meter CW Contest. Band noisy due to snow and high winds in eastern Kansas. Made over 50 contacts with 5 W and a rain gutter antenna."

    More from Jon the next day: "Some sporadic-E on 6 meters February 2 - 4. Es is rare in February. I worked WA2VJL (EL16) on 50.313 MHz FT8 from my mobile setup on February 2.

    N0LL (EM09) is back on 6 meters after repairing storm damage to his antenna. On February 3 Larry worked XE2ML on 6 meters. VK3OER in Australia spotted K0TPP in Missouri. Possible sporadic-E-TEP across the Pacific Ocean.

    XE2ML    21/02/04  0010Z      50313.0   EM09<ES>DL74     N0LL

    N0LL       21/02/04  0009Z      50313.0   DL74QB EM09        TNX QSO XE2ML

    Had some Es when I checked from my car at work. Decoded XE2OR, N7WB/p, K0JY, and XE2ML.

    N7WB/P  21/02/03  2354Z      50313.0   EM28IX   ES DM51BI             N0JK

    VK3OER spotted K0TPP.

    K0TPP     21/02/04  0036Z      50313.0 -16             CQ K0TPP
    correct!                VK3OER 

    In response to last week's bulletin and the subject of super-huge solar flares, Jon commented, "The VHF community is ready. Bring it on!"

    This article[1] in Physics Today discusses solar magnetic waves and corona composition:

    Here's the latest report[2] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    An audio tour[3] of the Sunspot, New Mexico, solar observatory.

    Sunspot numbers for January 28 - February 3 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 11, with a mean of 28.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 75.6, 75.5, 73.7, 73.4, 73.7, 72.9, and 74.3, with a mean of 77.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 2, 1, 5, 17, and 14, with a mean of 9.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 2, 0, 4, 11, and 10, with a mean of 6.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.1.20210203a/full/
    [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJGL-Y49swQ
    [3] https://voicemap.me/tour/otero-county-new-mexico/sunspot-solar-observatory-walking-tour/sites
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 12 19:20:32 2021
    02/12/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots are gone, with none seen since February 3. Spaceweather.com[1] reported on February 10 that a small proto-sunspot was struggling to form, but it was gone by the next day.

    According to Spaceweather.com, 57% of the days so far in 2021 have been spotless. This is the same as the percentage of spotless days for all of 2020.

    Average daily solar flux was 72.8 over the reporting week, with last week's average at 74.2. Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 7.7, and average daily middle latitude A index rose from 4.6 to 6. These are still low, quiet numbers, quite favorable for conditions on 80 and 160 meters, especially during winter.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 75 on February 12 - 19; 78 on February 20 - 22; 76 on February 23 - 25; 74 on February 26; 73 on February 27 - March 1; 72 on March 2 - 7; 74 on March 8 - 10, and 76 on March 11 - 13.

    Flux values may rise to 78 again after the middle of March, just before spring equinox in the Northern Hemisphere, which occurs on March 20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 12 - 14; 22 and 14 on February 15 - 16; 5 on February 17 - 20; 20, 16, and 12 on February 21 - 23; 5 on February 24 - 28, 18 and 14 on March 1 - 2; 5 on March 3 - 4; 8, 20, and 10 on March 5 - 7, and 5 on March 8 - 13.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for February 12 - March 9 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on February 12, 18-19, 25-27, March 5, 8-9


    o quiet to unsettled on February 13, 17, 24, March 3-4, 7


    o quiet to active on February 14-16, 20, 23, 28, March 6


    o unsettled to active February 21-22, March 1-2


    o active to disturbed (none predicted)



    Solar wind will intensify on February (15-17, 21-22,) 23-24, (25-26,) March 2-4

    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Predictability of changes remains low, as indications are ambiguous.

    Thank you to Jon Jones, N0JK, for this info[2] and an article[3] in Eos on personal space weather stations and a network tying them together.

    Jon, who is in Eastern Kansas (EM28), also reported a major 6-meter sporadic E opening across North America on February 7 - 8 UTC. First spotted around 1430 UTC, the Es continued until 0440 UTC.

    From Kansas, Texas was coming in via Es around 1620 UTC. Later, XE2ML (DL74) and XE2JS (DL78) showed up at 2220 UTC.

    "New Zealand was copied by stations in New England, and W5LDA (EM15) in Oklahoma was received by ZL1RS on three FT8 sequences," Jon said.

    Sunspot numbers for February 4 - 10 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.9, 72.8, 72.5, 73.2, 73.6, 70, and 73.7, with a mean of 72.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 7, 21, 6, 4, and 3, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 3, 4, 18, 6, 3, and 1, with a mean of 6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://hamsci.org/basic-project/personal-space-weather-station
    [3] https://eos.org/features/ham-radio-forms-a-planet-sized-space-weather-sensor-network
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 19 19:37:20 2021
    02/19/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: A period of zero sunspots ran from February 4 - 17, but on Wednesday evening while viewing the STEREO spacecraft image[1], I saw a very bright area on our sun's northeast horizon. Shortly after, Spaceweather.com[2] reported, "A new active region is hiding just behind the sun's northeastern[3] limb. It might be a sunspot."

    The next day, February 18, two new sunspot regions appeared in our sun's northern hemisphere, numbered 2802 and 2803. Region 2802 should soon rotate off the visible solar disc, and 2803 is the region just now crossing the eastern solar horizon.

    Spaceweather.com warns us to expect a minor geomagnetic storm on February 21, triggered by a solar wind stream.

    Average daily solar flux this week dropped from 72.8 to 72. Average daily planetary A index was unchanged from last week at 7.7.

    Reported cracks in Earth's magnetic field on Tuesday allowed solar wind to pour in, sparking aurora around the Arctic Circle. Alaska's College A index jumped to 45 (A high number), after the K index hit seven at 0600 and 0900 UTC. This is from a single magnetometer near Fairbanks.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 71 on February 19 - 21; 70 on February 22 - 26; 73, 74, and, 73 on February 27 - March 1; 74 on March 2 - 3; 73 on March 4 - 6; 74, 70, and 74 on March 7 - 9; 76, 72, and 71 on March 10 - 12, and 72 on March 13 - 20. Flux values may rise to 76 again on March 23 - 24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 18, 12, and 10 on February 19 - 23; 5 on February 24 - 28; 18, 15, and 8 on March 1 - 3; 5 on March 4 - 5; 15 on March 6; 5 on March 7 - 11; 18, 10, 8, and 8 on March 12 - 15; 5 on March 16 - 19; and 18, 15, and 12 on March 20 - 22.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for February - March 16 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on February 19, 25 - 27, March 5, 9 - 11, 14


    o quiet to unsettled on February 20, 24, March 4, 7 - 8, 13, 16


    o quiet to active on February 21, 23, 28, March 2 - 3, 12


    o unsettled to active February 22, March 1, (6, 15)


    o active to disturbed none predicted


    o Solar wind will intensify on February (21,) 22 - 24, (25,) March (1,) 2 - 4, (5 - 8, 12 - 15)



    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Predictability of changes remains low, as indicators are ambiguous.

    Jeff Hartley, N8II, in West Virginia (FM19cj) sent this report last week:

    "Sporadic E is slow to end for the winter season. On Sunday, February 7, we had Es to New England and to W/SW starting around 1915 UTC lasting until around 2145 UTC into Vermont. In the Vermont QSO Party, NS1DX, operating K2LE with big antennas, was S9 + 20 dB at one point around 2100 UTC on 15-meters SSB. I worked about seven Vermont QSOs total on 15 and added several on 20, which did not open from here until the Es. NX3A in Virginia, about 60 miles farther from Vermont, made five Vermont contacts on 10. I listened on 10, but there was nothing to Vermont when I checked.

    F2 was definitely improved over a year ago into both Minnesota and British Columbia for their parties. On February 6, British Columbia was booming in to West Virginia the entire afternoon on 20, and there was an opening 1800 - 2000 UTC on 15 with good signals at the peak. Sunday was poorer, but still better than 2019 on 20.

    Minnesota stations on 20 were loud most of the day on February 7 from 1445-2215 UTC.

    Most days it is possible to work Europe on 15, but openings are short and most weak. MM5AJN/M near Aberdeen in northeast Scotland was about S-5 on 15 SSB on February 10 at 1415 UTC. Today, February 12, I worked a V51 in Namibia and TZ4AM (S-9) in Mali on 15 CW. Senegal was heard as well. I made one QSO with the Milan, Italy, area on 15 CW and a DJ5 in Stuttgart, Germany, on SSB.

    Here's the latest report[4] from the Space Weather Woman, Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from a few days ago.

    This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL International DX Contest[5].

    Sunspot numbers for February 11 - 17 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 75.8, 72.1, 71.3, 71.4, 69.6, 71.5, and 72.4, with a mean of 72. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 13, 4, 5, 15, and 8, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 4, 10, 3, 3, 11, and 6, with a mean of 5.6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com
    [3] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2021/17feb21/f0171.jpg
    [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvWnL23vTIg&amp;feature=youtu.be
    [5] https://contests.arrl.org/dxcw/
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 26 19:53:41 2021
    02/26/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots have returned, and solar activity increased on every day over the reporting week. On Thursday evening, Spaceweather.com[1] reported that sunspot group AR2804 had doubled in size in a single day.

    The total sunspot area was 200 millionths of a solar hemisphere, a level not seen since the end of last year. It actually took 2 days to double - Tuesday through Thursday - covering 100, 150, and then 200.

    The average daily sunspot number increased from zero to 19.6, while average daily solar flux rose from 72 to 75.7. Geomagnetic activity was also higher, with average daily planetary A index increasing from 7.7 to 16, and average daily mid-latitude A index rose from 5.6 to 12.4.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 80 on February 26 - 28, 78 on March 1; 74 on March 2 - 5; 73 on March 5 - 6; 74, 70, 74, and 76 on March 7 - 10; 72, 71, 72, and 70 on March 11 - 14; 71, 72, 71, 73, 76, and 75 on March 15 - 20; 72 on March 21 - 22; 76 on March 23 - 24; 74 and 73 on March 25 - 26, and 74 and 73 again on March 27 - 28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 26 - March 1; 18 and 12 on March 2 - 3; 10, 8, and 15 on March 4 - 6; 5 on March 7 - 11; 15, 10, and 5 on March 12 - 14; 15, 5, 8, and 18 on March 15 - 18; 20 on March 19 - 20; 10 and 8 on March 21 - 22, and 5 on March 23 - 27.

    The University of Bradford in the UK has an article[2], "Automated Solar Activicty Prediction (ASAP)" on its website. While this looks interesting, so far I have been unable to download any data more recent than 2009 or 2011.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for February 26 - March 23 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, and the Czech Propagation Interest Group, which has been compiling these weekly forecasts since January 1978.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on March 9 - 10, 14


    o quiet to unsettled on February 26 - 27, March 4 - 5, 13, 16 - 17, 20


    o quiet to active on (February 28,) March 2 - 3, 7 - 8, 11, 15, 18 - 19, 21 - 23


    o unsettled to active March (1,) 6, 12


    o active to disturbed nothing expected


    o Solar wind will intensify on February 28, March 1 - 3, (4 - 9, 12,) 13, (14, 16 - 22,)



    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement. Predictability of changes remains low, as some indications are ambiguous.

    The Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has posted this new video[3].

    An article[4] in Forbes magazine describes recent space weather as "spicy:"

    An article[5] on the Weatherboy site predicted "potent solar wind" for Monday, February 22, and included some interesting graphics:

    An article[6] in the UK tabloid Express describes a solar "canyon of fire," but you need to page through a lot of other stuff to read the whole article.

    Ken Brown, N4SO (EM50tk), wrote on February 19:

    "One measure of propagation is to call CQ at a very low power on CW and look for returns on the Reverse Beacon Network. This was done with the [Elecraft] K2 power control knob all the way down, and on an Elecraft W1 power meter reading 100 mw on the lowest scale. Several CQs were called. KD7YZ responded with a single spot. Location: Greenup, Kentucky (EM88ll)." This was on 30 meters on February 14.

    This weekend is the CQ 160-Meter SSB Contest[7].

    Sunspot numbers for February 18 - 24 were 12, 12, 12, 11, 26, 31, and 33, with a mean of 19.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 71.1, 72.9, 76.4, 75.3, 75.9, 78.1, and 80.5, with a mean of 75.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 17, 20, 20, 17, 12, and 21, with a mean of 16. Middle latitude A index was 2, 13, 15, 18, 13, 10, and 16, with a mean of 12.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[10] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

    Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[14] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/asap/
    [3] https://youtu.be/bNxuOtBMN2s
    [4] https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2021/02/25/sunspots-solar-flares-auroras-space-weather-getting-spicy/?sh=6fbd01ef2e9e
    [5] https://www.weatherboy.com/potent-solar-wind-could-impact-earth-on-tuesday/ [6] https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1400983/nasa-satellite-solar-flare-video-sunspot-soho-canyon-of-fire-evg
    [7] https://www.cq160.com/
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 5 15:11:53 2021
    03/05/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: We saw one day during the February 25 - March 3 reporting week - Monday, March 1 - with no sunspots, so the average daily sunspot number declined slightly from 19.6 to 18.9. Two new sunspot groups (2806 and 2807) appeared on Tuesday, March 2.

    Average daily solar flux increased only slightly during the reporting week, from 75.7 to 76.7.

    Average daily planetary A index softened slightly from 16 to 14.7, and the middle latitude average went from 12.4 to 10.4. Geomagnetic indicators remained somewhat active due to persistent solar wind. The most active day was Monday, when Alaska's high-latitude College A index reached 34.

    Spaceweather.com[1] reported a G2 class geomagnetic storm on Monday, aided by a significant crack in Earth's magnetic field. Although activity was otherwise moderate this week, the March 1 event was the largest storm since a G3 event 94 weeks earlier, on May 14, 2019.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 80 on March 5; 78 on March 6; 78 on March 7 - 9; 72 on March 10 - 11; 71, 72, 70, 71, 72, and 71 on March 12 - 17; 73, 76, 75, 76, 78, and 81 on March 18 - 23; 80 on March 24 - 25; 79, 78, and 73 on March 26 - 28; 74 on March 29 - 30; 73 on March 31 - April 1, and 74 on April 2 - 3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 20, and 15 on March 5 - 7; 10 on March 8 - 9; 8, 5, 15, 10, and 5 on March 10 - 14; 15, 8, 5, and 18 on March 15 - 18; 20 on March 19 - 20; 18, 12, and 8 on March 21 - 23; 5 on March 24 - 27; 20, 15, and 10 on March 28 - 30; 5 on March 31 - April 1; 12 on April 2, and 5 on April 3 - 7.

    Here's the geomagnetic forecast for Marcy 5 - 30 from J. K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on March 9 - 10, 14, (26 - 27)


    o quiet to unsettled on March 5, 16 - 17, 25


    o quiet to active on March 7 - 8, 11, 13, 15, 20 - 24


    o unsettled to active March 12, 29


    o active to disturbed March 6, 18 - 19, 28, 30


    o Solar wind will intensify on March (5 - 9, 12 - 14, 16 - 22, 27,) 28 - 29



    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Predictability of changes remains low.

    W6MVT reports a surprising 10-meter opening to South America on the same Tuesday when sunspots re-appeared.

    "It never hurts to turn on 10 meters or check the spots on DXMaps or your favorite spotter. I saw some action and was pleased I was at the radio. On March 2 around 2130 UTC 10-meter SSB was alive with South American stations and a good path to those of us in Southern California. With 100 W and a rotatable dipole only up 20 feet, I was able to log LU4DJB, PU2LUC, PY2EX, PY5QW, PU2SDX, and PY4NY in rapid succession, all with good reports both ways. Things faded out around 2200 UTC, but I was glad I caught it."

    Larry, K8MU, sent this item[2] concerning a space plasma hurricane. Don't miss Larry's page on QRZ.com[3], showing lines and arrows with humorous text about his modest station, complete with steerable ground plane and incoming QSL receptacle.

    This is from an email exchange with Frank Donovan, W3LPL, regarding Total Sunspot Area, which is shown daily along with SFI and SSN (Sunspot Number) in this table[4]. (SFI is 10.7-centimeter solar flux, uHem is solar micro-hemispheres, and EUV is extreme ultra-violet radiation.)

    "Here are some additional insights regarding total sunspot area. SFI and total sunspot area are well correlated with each other and with EUV flux at the wavelengths that ionize the F2 region. Daily sunspot number is not well correlated, because tiny sunspots greatly affect it but have no effect on HF propagation. I usually ignore daily sunspot numbers unless total uHem exceeds 200.

    "Today is a classic case with daily SILSO[5] sunspot number = 30, but total sunspot area is under 100 uHem and SFI is stuck at 75.

    "Roughly 100 uHem elevates the SFI into the mid 70s but has only a minor effect on HF propagation.

    "200 uHem roughly corresponds to SFI = 80 and usually improves 17 and 15 meter propagation. But, the normal daily variability of F2 MUFs is not well correlated to SFIs of about 80 and often swamps out the expected improvements from SFI = 80.

    "HF MUFs increase more consistently when the SFI approaches 90. You may recall active region 12786 area was as high as 1,000 uHem last November, and the SFI was above 100 for 9 days. It greatly improved 15-meter propagation during the CQ World Wide DX CW contest, and there was significant 10-meter DX propagation too. Daily sunspot number varied wildly from 40 to 94 during this period, mostly because there were also three smaller active regions at during the period when 12786 was by far the most significant contributor to SFI greater than 100.

    "The rough equivalencies are uHem to SFI:

    100 = 75; 200 = 80; 400 = 90; 600 = 100; 800 = 110; 1,000 = 120; 1,200 = 130; 1,400 = 140; 1,500 = 150; 1,600 = 160; 1,800 = 170, and 2,000 = 180."

    This weekend is the ARRL International DX Contest (phone)[6].

    Here's a NASA video[7] of a solar flare from Science Times.

    This is a recent video forecast[8] from the Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for February 25 - March 3 were 31, 16, 14, 13, 0, 28, and 30, with a mean of 18.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 80.1, 80.1, 79.2, 77.7, 71, 74.7, and 74.2, with a mean of 76.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 11, 4, 6, 26, 20, and 23, with a mean of 14.7. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 3, 4, 16, 14, and 15, with a mean of 10.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[11] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

    Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

     

    Share[15] your reports and observations.

     


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://phys.org/news/2021-03-space-hurricane.html
    [3] http://www.qrz.com/
    [4] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [5] http://www.sidc.be/silso/
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx%20for%20details
    [7] https://bit.ly/3re3WP7
    [8] https://youtu.be/j1rSS9iVsK4
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 12 12:29:46 2021
    03/12/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Although solar activity remains low, in recent days, as a sunspot rotates to the west off the visible solar disc a new one emerges in the east. Sunspot group 2807 recently moved over the sun's western horizon, but on March 9 new sunspot group 2808 moved across the eastern horizon, and a newer group (2809) has now emerged just south of the center of the solar disc. This brought the daily sunspot number higher from 11 on Wednesday to 23 on Thursday, March 11.

    Recent sunspot activity and solar flux still seem soft when compared to activity toward the end of 2020, however.

    In Bulletins ARLP048, 49, and 50 in 2020 - covering November 19 - December 9 - average sunspot numbers were 27.9, 57.6, and 28.9, while average daily solar flux was 90.1, 108.1, and 91.9. For the past 3 weeks, the overall average daily sunspot numbers was 19 (2 weeks prior had no sunspots), and average daily solar flux was 77.1.

    We can't do anything but wait and watch, although we can look forward to the vernal equinox on Saturday, March 20. Like the autumnal equinox, this is always a positive influence on HF propagation, when the northern and southern hemispheres are bathed in approximately equal amounts of solar radiation. You can count on it.

    The average daily sunspot number this week hardly changed, from 18.9 last week to 18.4. Average daily solar flux shifted marginally higher from 76.7 to 78.9.

    Solar wind has slackened, so average daily planetary A index went from 14.7 to 7.6, and the middle latitude numbers changed from 10.4 to 6.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 78 on March 12 - 19; 75, 76, 78, and 81 on March 20 - 23; 80 on March 24 - 25; 78 and 76 on March 26 - 27; 75 on March 28 - April 1; 78 on April 2 - 3, and 70, 74, 76, 72, 71, 72 and 70 on April 4 - 10. After April 18, solar flux may rise again above 80, then back to 75 by April 24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 20, and 10 on March 12 - 14; 5 on March 15 - 17; 12 on March 18 - 19; 20, 18, 12, and 8 on March 20 - 23; 5 on March 24 - 27; 25, 20, 20, and 10 on March 28 - 31; 5, 15, and 8 on April 1 - 3; 5 on April 4 - 7, and 18, 12, 5, and 15 on April 8 - 11. A recurring coronal hole may rotate into a geo - effective position on April 15 - 16 and another around April 24 - 25, raising the planetary A index again to around 20 - 25.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for March 12 - April 6 from F.K Janda, OK1HH.


    o The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on March 17, (26 - 27,) April 1, 6


    o quiet to unsettled on March 12 - 13, 16, 25, April 3 - 5


    o quiet to active on March 21 - 24, 31


    o unsettled to active March 14 - 15, 18, 29 April 2


    o active to disturbed March 19 - 20, 28, 30


    o Solar wind will intensify on March (12 - 14, 18 - 19,) 20 - 23, (27,) 28 - 31, April (1 - 2)



    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. Predictability of changes remains very low, as there are ambiguous indications.

    Dennis, K7BV, reported: "March 7, while checking the bands for DX, I went to 15 meters on FT8 about 1650. The strongest signal by a huge margin was S79KW (LI75rj Seychelles) at +27 dB! After a quick contact, I moved to a clear frequency to call CQ.  Almost immediately 4S6RSP, -8 dB strong. called. A few minutes later VU2AMW at -1 dB called. I also noticed YC5YZ calling CQ. Nothing else heard from the region, but S79KW remained strong well after this brief 15-meter opening to Southern and Southeast Asia."

    Unfortunately the averages at the end of this bulletin sometimes change from the preview that appears in Thursday's edition of The ARRL Letter[1]. This is my fault and happens from time to time. Thanks so much to Don Wright, AA2F, who catches these every time, and makes sure the correct averages appear in Friday's bulletin.

    Aurora season[2] has returned in Colorado.

    David Moore sent this[3] from Science News: "The aurora's very high altitude booster."

    Sunspot numbers for March 4 - 10 were 32, 14, 23, 14, 12, 23, and 11, with a mean of 18.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 81.4, 73.2, 77, 77.5, 79.9, 83.7, and 79.4, with a mean of 78.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 5, 16, 10, 6, 3, and 2, with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 11, 5, 11, 7, 5, 2, and 2, with a mean of 6.1.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter
    [2] https://www.steamboatpilot.com/news/celestial-news-aurora-season-returns/ [3] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/03/210309100127.htm
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 19 12:01:29 2021
    03/19/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Average daily sunspot numbers this week rose just a little, from 18.4 to 19, and average daily solar flux edged up from 78.9 to 78.1. Solar activity remains low.

    The vernal equinox, (the first day of spring in the northern hemisphere) occurs at 0937 UTC on Saturday, March 20. That's when the southern and northern hemispheres will be bathed in approximately equal amounts of solar radiation, which has a positive effect of HF propagation.

    On March 17 - 18, the daily sunspot number was only 12 on both days, but the total sunspot area rose from 50 to 200 microhemispheres. Sunspot area was last at this level on February 25. The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) offers daily statistics[1] on daily sunspot area, sunspot numbers, and solar flux.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 7.6 to 10.3, and average daily middle-latitude A index increased from 6.1 to 7.3. Solar wind on March 14 drove the planetary A index to 25, and Alaska's College A index was 37.

    On Wednesday March 17, Spaceweather.com[2] warned that minor geomagnetic unrest was expected on March 18, due to a co-rotating interactive region that would disturb our magnetic field. "CIRs are transition zones between fast and slow-moving solar wind streams. Plasma piles up in these regions, creating shock-like density gradients that often do a good job sparking auroras," Spaceweather said.

    On March 18 Spaceweather.com reported, "NOAA forecasters say that a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is likely on March 20 - 21 when a stream of high-speed solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing faster than 600 kilometers/second from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere."

    The latest forecast from the US Air Force Space Weather Squadron predicts solar flux at 72 on March 19 - 21; 70 on March 22 - 26; 76 on March 27; 76 on March 27; 75 on March 28 - April 1; 78 on April 2 - 3; 70, 74, 76, and 72 on April 4 - 7; 71, 72, and 70 on April 8 - 10; 71, 72, and 71 on April 11 - 13, and 73, 76, 75, and 76 on April 14 - 16. Solar flux is expected to hit a high of 81 on April 19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 24, 20, 15, 12, 8, and 10 on March 19 - 25; 5 on March 26 - 27; 25 on March 28; 20 on March 29 - 30; 10, 5, 15, and 8 on March 31 - April 3; 5 on April 4 - 7; 15, 18, 20, and 15 on April 8 - 11; 8, 5, and 8 on April 12 - 14; 20 on April 15 - 16, and 18 on April 17. The A index may peak at 25 again on April 24.

    Here is more[3] about the US Air Force and space weather.

    This is the geomagnetic activity forecast for March 19- April 13 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on March (27) April 1, 4, 6, 12


    o quiet to unsettled on March 25 - 26, April 3, 5, 7


    o quiet to active on March 22 - 24, 31, April 13


    o unsettled to active March 21, April 2, 8 - 9, 11


    o active to disturbed March (19 - 20) 28 - 30, April 10


    o Solar wind will intensify on March (19) 20 - 22, (23, 27) 28 - 29, (30 April 1 - 2, (3 - 5, 8,) 9 - 10, (11).



    Parentheses indicate lower probability of activity enhancement. Predictability of changes remains very low, as indicators remain ambiguous.

    At 2358 UTC on March 17 Australia's Space Weather Services sent this alert:

    "A large southern polar coronal hole with low-latitude extensions will become geoeffective with the CIR possibly arriving from late on March 19 UTC, causing unsettled to active conditions. The HSS from the coronal hole is expected to follow on 20 March UTC, causing active conditions with the possibility of a G1 minor storm. Active conditions are expected to continue on March 21. Aurora may be visible from Tasmania at night on March 19 -20."

    Dave Bono, K6OAK, in Fremont, California reports:

    "On Monday, March 15, just before 1900 UTC, 6 and 10 meters were dead, but I noticed a few signals on 12-meter FT8, one being a fairly strong signal from VP8NO in the Falklands. After a few attempts I was able to make contact and received a respectable -10 report. I was running 50 W into a ground-mounted vertical antenna. Not bad for a few minutes in the shack."

    Mike, KA3JAW in Easton, PA (FN20jq) reports 6-meter activity:

    "On March 13 at 1627 UTC, 6-meter sporadic-E began to appear on FT8 50.313 MHz with stations from the central states of Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas for over 3.5 hours from the first Es cloud formation.

    "1659 UTC heard VO1SIX in Newfoundland, Canada (GN27jd), at 1,090 miles coming in from 65° azimuth from a second Es cloud formation.

    "1830 UTC Es starts to spread out directly west into the central states of Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas.

    "The farthest distance came from KQ0P (EM19wf) at 1,109 miles, 271° azimuth with a signal of -6 dB, while the radio power output was 15 W using a half-wave dipole at 6 feet above ground."

    The American Geophysical Union (AGU) posted an article[4], "A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm," remembering the Quebec event of 1989.

    Arizona TV station KTAR posted[5] "Solar cycle 25 is well underway in 2021 with sunspot action" on its website. It includes some interesting links:

    An article[6] on the Brinkwire website, "Solar Activity Reconstructed Over a Millennium - Sun's Eleven-Year Cycle Traced Back to the Year 969," takes a historical perspective.

    VA7JW offers an overview[7] of the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory at Penticton, which supplies us with solar flux data.

    Sunspot numbers for March 11 - 17 were 23, 15, 12, 24, 24, 23, and 12, with a mean of 19. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 78.2, 76.9, 81.1, 78, 74.8, 79.2, and 78.2, with a mean of 78.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 12, 17, 25, 7, 4, and 3, with a mean of 10.3. Middle latitude A index was 3, 9, 13, 17, 5, 2, and 2, with a mean of 7.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[10] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

    Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[14] your reports and observations. 


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://www.557weatherwing.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Article/871846/2d-weather-squadron-radio-solar-telescope-network/
    [4] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019SW002278
    [5] https://ktar.com/story/4178316/solar-cycle-25-is-well-underway-in-2021-with-sunspot-action/
    [6] https://en.brinkwire.com/science/solar-activity-reconstructed-over-a-millennium-suns-eleven-year-cycle-traced-back-to-the-year-969/
    [7] http://archive.nsarc.ca/hf/drao_solar.pdf
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 26 15:18:20 2021
    03/26/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: On March 21 and 22 two new sunspot groups, 2811 and 2812, appeared. Average daily sunspot number this week faded a bit from 19 to 17.9, but average daily solar flux went from 78.1 to 78.6. Neither change is significant.

    We haven't seen a day with no sunspots since March 1, so that brings the percentage of spotless days so far this year to 38%, down from 57% last year and 77% in 2019.

    Geomagnetic activity was steady throughout this week, with average daily planetary A index rising from 10.3 to 13.3, and average middle latitude A index from 7.3 to 10.4. But geomagnetic conditions were disturbed at higher latitudes.

    Alaska's College A index, measured near Fairbanks, was 40 and 45 on March 20 - 21. This was reflected in a report from N6QEK/KL7 in North Pole, Alaska (a town southeast of Fairbanks, not at the North Pole), who wrote, "HF frequencies here in the interior of Alaska were wiped out for the BARTG RTTY contest. FT8 signals were almost nonexistent as well."

    Saturday was the first day of spring in the Northern Hemisphere and fall in the Southern Hemisphere, positive indications for HF propagation.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 80 on March 26 - 27; 75 on March 28 - 31; 70 on April 1 - 2; 80 and 81 on April 3 - 4; 82 on April 5 - 7; 81 on April 8; 80 on April 9 - 10; 78 and 76 on April 11 - 12; 75 on April 13 - 14; 76 on April 15; 77 on April 16 - 17; 76 on April 18 - 20, 77 on April 21, and 78 on April 22 - 28. Solar flux is expected to peak at 82 on May 2 - 4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on March 26; 5 on March 27; 25 on March 28; 20 on March 29 - 30; 12 on March 31; 8 on April 1 - 3; 5 on April 4 - 7; 15, 18, and 20 on April 8 - 10; 5 on April 11 - 15; 25, 22, 20, 15, and 8 on April 16 - 20; 5 on April 21 - 23; 25 on April 24, and 20 on April 25 - 26.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for March 26 - April 20 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on April 1, 6 - 7, 12 - 13


    o quiet to unsettled on March 26 - 27, 31, April 5, 14, 18


    o quiet to active on April 2 - 4, 15, 20


    o unsettled to active March 29, April 8, 11, 19


    o active to disturbed March 28, 30, April 9 - 10, 16 - 17


    o Solar wind will intensify on March (28,) 29 - 30, (31,) April 2 - 3, (4 - 6, 8 - 9,) 10 - 11, (12, 16 - 17,) 18 - 19, (20)



    Remarks:

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Predictability of changes remains very low, as there are irregular and ambiguous indications.

    Jon Jones, N0JK, wrote on March 22:

    "More on the March 13 sporadic-E opening. The month of March has the lowest occurrence of sporadic-E propagation of any month of the year. Thus, I consider any sporadic-E on 6 meters in March noteworthy.

    "There was some afternoon TEP (transequatorial propagation) on 6 meters between Florida and South America March 21. Stations such as W4AS, KD4ESV, KV4HV, in Florida worked CX and LU stations around 2100 UTC. K0GU (DN70) in Colorado spotted LU9FVS, perhaps a sporadic-E to TEP link. The K index was 5, indicating 'storm' geomagnetic field conditions."

    This article[1] mentions solar cycle predictions and mentions predicted "peak rates of more than 200 sunspots at a time." But the writer may have made a common error, confusing the daily sunspot number with the actual number of sunspots - two very different numbers.

    To review, to calculate the sunspot number, we count a value of 10 for each sunspot group, than add a value of 1 for each sunspot within those groups.

    I noticed something strange about the NOAA SESC reported solar flux of 79 on March 23. NOAA gets the solar flux values[2] from the Penticton, British Columbia, Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory noon reading, which is also my source. NOAA rounds off these values to the nearest whole number, which should have been 82.

    Now that it is March, I will pause to reflect. The FCC issued my Novice license (WN7CSK) on March 23, 1965, when I was 12 years old. When the ticket finally arrived, I was very, very excited.

    I asked my mother to hang her bright red sweater in the dining room window when any envelope from the FCC arrived, so I could see it from my school bus. When I saw Mom's sweater, I leaped from my seat, and ran to the front of the bus, whooping and hollering. This only confirmed for my schoolmates what they already knew, that I really was crazy. Fifty-six years later, this vivid memory lingers.

    It was 30 years ago (this week?) that I began writing this bulletin after a sudden increase in solar flux that I felt was noteworthy. But, ARRL had just announced that Ed Tilton, W1HDQ, who authored this propagation bulletin was ill, so it was suspended for the time being.

    I fell into writing the bulletin when I called ARRL Headquarters, because I thought it should put out a bulletin with this solar news. The individual I spoke with wondered who might write this, so I offered. Then, the next week Headquarters asked for another bulletin.

    I also called W1HDQ, who at that time was living in Florida. His wife answered the phone, but said he was too ill to talk on the phone. She asked what I was calling about, and when I told her the solar flux value, she replied, "Oh he'll want to hear about this!" and I spoke with Ed briefly, who seemed exited by the news.

    Unfortunately, W1HDQ never recovered, so I kept writing the ARRL Propagation Bulletin. I have since been unable to learn when he began writing it. I recall copying the bulletin from W1AW on 20-meter CW in 1966, but before that is unclear. Nobody seems to know. I wish I had asked Ed about this when we spoke.

    Sunspot numbers for March 18 - 24 were 12, 14, 12, 12, 23, 26, and 26, with a mean of 17.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.4, 73.5, 80.3, 77.1, 80.4, 81.8, and 83.6, with a mean of 78.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 29, 24, 8, 11, and 11, with a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 6, 20, 17, 6, 9, and 11, with a mean of 10.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[3] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[4] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[5] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[6] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[7] website.

    Instructions[8] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[9] your reports and observations.

     


    [1] https://stardate.org/radio/program/2021-03-22
    [2] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 2 12:34:55 2021
    04/02/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Average daily sunspot numbers declined this week from 17.9 to 11.9. Why? Because on the final 2 days of the March 25 - 31 reporting week sunspots disappeared. That's right. We're back to the blank sun again, unfortunately.

    Spaceweather.com[1] reported on Wednesday that we may soon see a potential sunspot[2] that's currently on the far side of our sun.

    Average daily solar flux dropped from 78.6 to 77.4. Geomagnetic indicators softened as well, with average daily planetary A index declining from 13.3 to 8.9, and middle latitude A index from 10.4 to 7.7.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month does not look promising, with values way down in the 70s, although this forecast improved some over the past couple of days. Expect 10.7-centimeter flux at 73 on April 2 - 3; 71 on April 4 - 9; 73 on April 10 - 13; 74 on April 14 - 16; 76 on April 17 - 24; 75 on April 25 - 27; 74 and 73 on April 28 - 29, and 72 on April 30 - May 5.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 2 - 5; 8 on April 6 - 7; 5, 10, and 20 on April 8 - 10; 5 on April 11 - 15; 20 and 18 on April 16 - 17; 8 on April 18 - 19; 5 on April 20 - 21; 8 on April 22 - 24; 12 on April 25; 8 on April 26 - 27; 5 on April 28 - 30; 8 on May 1 - 2; 5 on May 3 - 4, and 12 on May 5 - 7.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for April 2 - 27 from OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on April 12 - 13, 24 - 26


    o quiet to unsettled on April 5, 14, 23


    o quiet to active on April (2 - 7, 15, 20 - 22, 27)


    o unsettled to active April (8, 11, 18 - 19)


    o active to disturbed April (9 - 10,) 16 - 17


    o Solar wind will intensify on April 3, (4-5, 8-9,) 10-11, (12, 16-17,) 18, (19-22, 27)



    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement. Predictability of changes remains very low, as there are  ambiguous and quickly changing indications.

    This article[3] in The Irish Times asks, "Was space weather the cause of the Titanic disaster?"

    NN4X reported a 15-meter long path opening to Asia: "Nice opening to Asia here in Central Florida on the morning of April 1.

    "On FT8, I worked BA7LP, YD7ACD, BG7PHA, and VR2VLY, and heard 9V1PL and BD7LMA.

    "It was very concentrated. Note, no JA/HL/DU. Typically, I've been seeing more YBs than anything on 15-meter LP, but certainly not today."

    Many years ago we reported in this bulletin the results JQ2UOZ was getting running one-half watt using simple wire antennas on his apartment balcony. Check out his blog[4].

    Another blast from the past[5] on flares and CMEs:

    This article[6] in The Conversation discusses, "Why we need to get better at predicting space weather."

    The Carrington Event, mentioned in this article[7], "Extreme solar storms may be more frequent than previously thought," continues to fascinate.

    AL7LO has a collection of his favorite ARRL Propagation Bulletins, and he shared this one[8] from 8 years ago.

    Sunspot numbers for March 25 - 31 were 24, 24, 11, 11, 13, 0, and 0, with a mean of 11.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 78.8, 79.6, 80.4, 75.1, 74.4, 79.5, and 73.8, with a mean of 77.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 12, 9, 6, 4, 3, and 10, with a mean of 8.9. Middle latitude A index was 18, 11, 7, 4, 3, 4, and 7, with a mean of 7.7.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[11] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

    Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[15] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2021/29mar21/farside.jpg
    [3] https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/was-space-weather-the-cause-of-the-titanic-disaster-1.4518921
    [4] https://jq2uoz.blogspot.com/
    [5] http://cse.ssl.berkeley.edu/coronalweather/CMEsFlares/index.html
    [6] https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-to-get-better-at-predicting-space-weather-157630
    [7] https://bisouv.com/uncategorized/3530537/extreme-solar-storms-may-be-more-frequent-than-previously-thought/
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP001/2013
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 9 14:52:18 2021
    04/09/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots were only visible on 4 days of the current reporting week - on April 3-6 - and now on Friday morning, still no sunspots.

    As a result, average daily sunspot number declined from 11.9 last week to 6.4 currently. Average daily solar flux also dropped from 77.4 to 73.4. On Thursday the daily solar flux was 74, just above the average for the previous 7 days, 73.4. The sun remained blank.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 8.9 to 6.6, and average mid-latitude A index slipped from 7.7 to 5.6.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month is 74 on April 9 - 15; 72 on April 16 - 20; 74 on April 21 - 26; 73 on April 27 - May 1; 72 on May 2 - 5; 70 on May 6 - 10, and 71 on May 11 - 12; 74 is not a high 10.7-centimeter flux value, but it should be there on May 18 and beyond.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, and 8 on April 9 - 11; 5 on April 12 - 13; 8 on April 14 - 15; 15 and 18 on April 16 - 17; 8 on April 18 - 19; 5 on April 20 - 21; 8 on April 22 - 24; 5 on April 25 - May 1; 8 on May 2 - 4, and 5 on May 5 - 12.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for April 9 - May 4 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on April 25, May 1 - 3


    o quiet to unsettled on April 18, 20, 22, 26, 28 - 30


    o quiet to active on April 19, 23 - 34, 27


    o unsettled to active April (9 - 11,) 17, 21 - 22


    o active to disturbed April 16, May 4


    o Solar wind will intensify on April (9 - 11, 16,) 18 - 19,( 21 - 22, then irregularly between April 23 - May 1,) May 3 - 4

    Remarks:

    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Predictability of changes remains very low, as there are a lack of indications and contradictions between them.

    Des, ND3L wrote: "I was off the air for 28 years. Got back on a year ago. I'm in the process of inputting my old logs into QRZ.com logbook. Back in 1989 I had a stretch of 11 pages of all 10-meter contacts with 25 contacts per page. Found five new countries that I never had confirmed. Operators were still around and had old logs and confirmed. Took me from 284 to 289 confirmed in 1 week! In early 1989, daily sunspot numbers ranged from 134 to 161. We didn't know we had it so good!"

    Ken Brown, N4SO on Alabama's Gulf Coast reports on 17-meter FT8. On March 28, he worked ZD8HZ on Ascension Island at 2117 UTC, over a distance of 5,509 miles.

    Later, from 2207 to 2345 UTC he worked "JA5AQC, JR7VHZ, JG1SRB, JR1FYS, JR7TEQ, JL1UXH, JA2KVD, JA1JAN, JA0MRW, JA3FQO, JA3PCQ, JO1LVZ, JA3APV, JA2QXP, and on the 29th and 30th worked a total of 10 more Japanese stations, some call signs repeated from the 28th."

    WB8VLC in Salem, Oregon, is seeing consistent 10-meter activity, which is a nice surprise considering the very low solar activity and probably too early in the year for e-skip.

    He reported: "As usual 10 meters has been open here in northwestern Oregon pretty much every week to South America, but the interesting openings were on two weekends in March, when E51JD in Rarotonga South Cook Islands has been in on 10 meter SSB along with KH6ZM on RTTY and the usual South Americans." (KH6ZM is on the Big Island).

    JQ2UOZ wrote: Hi, Tad-san, K7RA. Thank you very much for mentioning me in the latest bulletin. By the way, I have found a very interesting article[1] about the solar cycle. "Gradual onset of the Maunder Minimum revealed by high-precision carbon-14 analyses." (Scientific Reports, vol 11, article number 5482 [2021]).

    The author describes in the Abstract, "Here we show that the 11-year solar cycles were significantly lengthened before the onset of the Maunder Minimum (1645 - 1715 CE) based on unprecedentedly high-precision data of carbon-14 content in tree rings. It implies that flow speed in the convection zone is an essential parameter to determine long-term solar activity variations. We find that a 16 year-long cycle had occurred three solar cycles before the onset of prolonged sunspot disappearance, suggesting a longer-than-expected preparatory period for the grand minimum. As the Sun has shown a tendency of cycle lengthening since Solar Cycle 23 (1996 - 2008 CE), the behavior of Solar Cycle 25 can be critically important to the later solar activity. I hope to have an active Solar Cycle 25."

    Some readers may find this article[2] from 1997 of interest.

    Here's a recent video update[3] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

    Sunspot numbers for April 1 - 7 were 0, 0, 12, 11, 11, 11, and 0, with a mean of 6.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 77.9, 72.1, 72.8, 70, 71.9, 73.6, and 75.7, with a mean of 73.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 6, 4, 3, 5, 3, and 17, with a mean of 6.6 Middle latitude A index was 8, 4, 2, 2, 5, 3, and 15, with a mean of 5.6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84830-5
    [2] http://scholarworks.csun.edu/bitstream/handle/10211.3/198498/Chapman-GA-Solar-1997.pdf
    [3] https://youtu.be/pwRcJ-YcVzk
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 16 11:08:25 2021
    04/16/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: On April 12, new sunspot group AR2814 appeared following 5 days of no sunspots. Daily sunspot numbers on the next 4 days were 16, 16, 17, and 22, taking the average daily sunspot number for the April 8-14 reporting week from 6.4 last week to 7. The April 15 sunspot number of 22 was not included in this average. So far in 2021, 39% of the days had no sunspots.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A index declining slightly from 6.6 to 5.1. Likewise, middle latitude A index changed from 5.6 to 4.1.

    On April 14 Spaceweather.com[1] reported a high-speed stream of solar wind from a hole in the sun's southern hemisphere. This could produce a minor geomagnetic storm on April 17.

    At 2338 UTC on April 14 and again at 0239 UTC on April 16, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to active levels with a chance of an isolated minor storm period from late on April 16, due to coronal hole effects. The April 16 warning said to expect the effects to continue through Sunday, April 18.

    Predicted solar flux is 74 on April 16 - 19; 72 on April 20 - 21; 70 on April 22 - 23; 75 on April 24 - May 8; 72 on May 9 - 17, and 75 on May 18 through the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 20, and 16 on April 16 - 18; 12, 8, 5, and 10 on April 19 - 22; 8 on April 23 - 24; 5 on April 25 - 26; 10 and 8 on April 27 - 28; 5 on April 29 - May 3; 15 on May 4; 5 on May 5 - 7; 8 on May 8; 5 on May 9 - 10; 8 on May 11 - 12; 5 on May 13; 20 on May 14; 8 on May 15 - 16, and 5 on May 17 - 18.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for April 16 - May 11 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, who has been compiled this weekly bulletin since January 1978.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on April 25, May 1-3, 5


    o quiet to unsettled on April 26, 28-30, May 6-11


    o quiet to active on April 19-20, 23-24


    o unsettled to active April 21-22, 27


    o active to disturbed April 16-17, (18,) May 4


    o Solar wind will intensify on April (16-17,) 18-19, (21-22, then irregularly between April 23-May 1,) May 3-5, (6-7, 10-11)



    Parentheses means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Jon Jones, N0JK, reported on April 15: Stations in New England spotted CE2SV and CE3SX (FF46) on 50.313 MHz FT8 ~ 2200 UTC on April 13. Likely a sporadic-E link to transequatorial propagation (TEP). AC4TO (EM70) in Florida reported 18 DX contacts in 10 countries on April 13. Solar flux was 83.

    Steve Sacco, NN4X reported: Here in Florida, we saw a late-afternoon opening into Europe on both 10 and 12 meters. Looking west on 10 on FT8, I noticed ZL3IO completing a QSO with CT1ENI, and then calling EA5RW. Note that it's the middle of the night in EU at 2034 UTC.

    Don't miss this truly remarkable presentation[2] on "HF Ionospheric Propagation" by Frank Donovan, W3LPL, to the Central Arizona DX Association

    Universe Today has an article[3] on Galileo sunspot drawings and an application of artificial intelligence.

    Here is the April 14 report and forecast[4] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for April 8 - 14 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 16, 16, and 17, with a mean of 7. The 10.7 centimeter flux was 74, 77.8, 70.4, 72.9, 82.8, 72.8, and 74.4, with a mean of 75. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 5, 6, 5, 5, and 7, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 3, 5, 4, 5, and 7, with a mean of 4.1.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://youtu.be/4-pBa3Eyxsk
    [3] https://bit.ly/3dZHGmw
    [4] https://youtu.be/Tti4AZUa458
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 23 12:25:43 2021
    04/23/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Four new sunspots emerged this week and were visible every day.

    Spaceweather.com issued a warning on April 22: "A CME is heading for Earth. and it could spark a geomagnetic storm when it arrives on April 25. NOAA forecasters say moderately strong G2-class storms are possible, which means auroras could dip into northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington."

    Average daily sunspot number surged from 7 to 35.1, while average daily solar flux increased from 75 to 78.

    Due to seemingly constant solar wind, average planetary A index rose from 5.1 to 16.4, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 4.1 to 13.

    Predicted solar flux is 84 on April 23 - 24; 82 on April 25 - 27; 80 on April 28; 78 on April 29 - 30; 68 on May 1 - 2; 78 on May 3; 72 on May 4 - 9; 75 on May 10 - 15; 78 on May 16; 75 on May 17 - 18; 72 on May 19; 70 on May 20 - 23, and 68 on May 24 - 29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 25, and 12 on April 23 - 26; 5 on April 27 - May 3; 15 on May 4; 5 on May 5 - 7; 8 on May 8; 5 on May 9 - 10; 8, 12, 20, 30, 15, 12, and 8 on May 11 - 17; 5 on May 18 - 19, and 8, 12 and 5 on May 20 - 22.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for April 23 - May 18 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on May 1 - 3, 5, 18


    o quiet to unsettled on April 28 - 30, May 6 - 11, 17


    o quiet to active on April 26, May 12


    o unsettled to active April 27, May 16, 18


    o active to disturbed April 23, (24 - 25,) May (4,) 13 - 14, (15)


    o Solar wind will intensify on April 23 - 25, (then irregularly between April 26 - May 1), May 3 - 5, (6 - 7, 10 - 11, 16,) 17 - 18, (18)



    Remarks:

    - Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the forecast.

    Frank Donovan, W3LPL, says the long-anticipated significant increase in Solar Cycle 25 activity may have begun on April 19.

    "As a result, 30- and 20-meter nighttime propagation and 17- and 15-meter daytime propagation is likely to be enhanced through at least April 26. The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to remain at 85 or higher through at least April 26 due to two active regions on the sun's surface, 2816 and 2817, containing 16 sunspots in all. Two additional active solar regions[1] on the far side of the sun[2] are expected to rotate into view later this week, possibly increasing the SFI and extending enhanced propagation through late April".

    See Donovan's article, "What to Expect During the Rising Years of Solar Cycle 25," in the May 2021 issue of QST.

    Donovan says the new sunspots are fading faster than he'd hoped, but the steady trend of increasing sunspots should soon sustain the solar flux above 80.

    Long-distance propagation forecast for Thursday - Friday, April 22 - 23 from Frank Donovan, W3LPL:

    "My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is published five days a week (M - F) in The Daily DX[3].

    "Propagation at low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday. Propagation crossing the auroral oval and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal, with below normal intervals through Friday.

    "Today's latest planetary Kp Index[4], updated every 3 hours

    "N0NBH's current HF band conditions[5], updated regularly

    "The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 78 through Friday.

    "Three active regions containing a total of 17 mostly tiny sunspots are having minimal effect on HF propagation.

    "We are exiting the most disturbed weeks of the March - April geomagnetic storm season, when Earth is passing through the part of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) with the most frequent, longest duration southward oriented IMF. Approximately twice as many brief minor and moderate geomagnetic storms occur during March and April compared to the quieter IMF during June and July. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be triggered with little warning when the IMF rotates to a southward orientation and persists for several hours coincident with the effects of earth-directed coronal hole high-speed streams and coronal mass ejection (CME) enhancements in the solar wind.

    "Short-path on 160 and 80 meters from North America to VK/ZL is likely to be normal through Friday. Eighty and forty meter short path propagation to south Asia is likely to be mostly normal at about 0030 UTC Friday. Eighty and forty meter short-path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0900 UTC is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through Friday.

    "Thirty meter propagation through the auroral ovals and across polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through Friday. Thirty meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation. Thirty meter nighttime propagation is likely to improve slightly through Friday, due to solar flux index of 78.

    "Twenty meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and across polar regions is likely to be mostly normal, with below normal intervals through Friday. Twenty meter northern trans-polar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset will steadily improve with gradually increasing electron density in the polar F2 region through June. Twenty meter night time long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve slightly through Friday due to solar flux index of 78.

    "Seventeen and fifteen meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve slightly through Friday due to solar flux of 78. Twelve and ten meter daytime long distance propagation is likely to be mostly unreliable and limited to propagation from North America to Southern Africa, South Atlantic, South America, and South Pacific regions.

    "Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high speed streams are likely to remain mostly brief, minor, and less frequent through at least late 2021. The north-south (Bz) component of the IMF plays a crucial role in triggering brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms when it persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced field strength for several hours coincident with the effects of earth-directed coronal hole high-speed stream or CME enhancements in the solar wind.

    "IMF field strength, solar wind speed near earth and geomagnetic activity are likely to be at close to background levels through Friday with a possible enhancement late Friday due to coronal hole high-speed stream effects. There is a slight possibility that an M-Class solar flare may cause a brief sudden ionospheric disturbance and short-wave fadeout on the sun-facing side of the earth late Thursday.

    "Geomagnetic storms and earth-directed CMEs strong enough to affect HF propagation are not likely through Friday.

    "Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 32 minutes later, and the daylight period is 81 minutes longer than it was on March 20.

    "Daylight period is increasing by 2 minutes per day, which is steadily lengthening the duration of common daylight between distant locations in the northern hemisphere. Solar elevation in the northern polar region is increasing by about 3° degrees per week, steadily improving 20 meter northern trans-polar propagation through June.

    "Today's Penticton 10.7-centimeter solar flux index[6] is updated at 1700, 2000, and 2300 UTC daily."

    Today's 2-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast[7] is updated every 3 hours.

    Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity[8] is updated at 1230 UTC daily.

    Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion[9] is updated at 0030 and 1230 UTC daily.

    Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast[10]is updated at 2330 UTC daily.

    These[11] are perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers.

    The April 2021 NASA solar flux index forecast[12] for Solar Cycle 25 has been published, mostly advancing the date for solar maximum to 2024. The SFI represented by the 50% percentile (green line) is similar to Solar Cycle 24. A double peaked solar cycle - similar to recent Solar Cycles 23 and 24 - could delay solar maximum by a year or more.

    Here's slightly updated wording to W3LPL's May QST article, unconstrained by QST page limits and reflecting NASA's predicted solar maximum in 2024:

    "If the SFI persists below 90 through December 2021, then propagation should improve gradually until a solar maximum weaker than Cycle 24's arrives in 2024.

    "If the SFI persists above 110 through December 2021, then propagation should improve rapidly until a solar maximum similar to Cycle 24's arrives in 2024.

    "If the SFI persists above 125 through December 2021, then propagation is likely to improve more rapidly until a solar maximum stronger than Cycle 24's arrives in 2024."

    Vote[13] for your favorite May QST article.

    N4SO recommends an article in the March-April edition of QEX, "The onset of Solar Cycle 25 and the MGII Index," by VE6TL.

    Jon Jones, N0JK reported an April 20 TEP opening to South America on 6 meters, and sent a long list of stations copied from 2022-2023 UTC, and this report:

    "CE6CGX copied me. 10 W, quarter-wave whip. Jon N0JK EM28 KS

    "RX at Tue, 20 Apr 2021 20:25:01 GMT."

    "From N0JK by CE6CGX Loc FF31qp

    "Frequency: 50.314.248 MHz (6m), FT8,  -6dB

    "Distance: 8846 km bearing 162°"

    On April 19 Jon, N0JK, reported that VP8EME in the Falkland Islands was heard on 6 meters by KE8FD and K1TOL around 1800 UTC. "Looks like the summer sporadic-E season has begun," he observed.

    KA3JAW of Easton, Pennsylvania, reported a long 6-meter opening on April 19, 1435 - 1706 UTC. "Best DX range was with N5DG [EM20AB] Hempstead, Texas, at 1,374 miles," he said.

    And from Cuba:

    "Hi, CO7WT, Pavel Milanes here from Camagüey Cuba, FL11bj. I'd like to report a huge opening on 6 meters on Saturday, April 17, 2020. I was calibrating my homebrew 6-meter transverter to get access to the magic band (Noise generator, SDR, NanoVNA), and out of the blue, a digital signal came up for a few seconds on my SDR screen. Hmm... weird. No antenna is connected, just coax from the tests, then there it's a mental calculation spotted the 18.313 MHz, aka 50.313 (32.000 MHz XTAL). That's FT8! A local ham, I think at first. Connected my antenna (Cushcraft 3 element Yagi) and boom! Loud signals from North America and some from LU and CE on the side/back of the Yagi. Sadly, the transmit side of the transverter is not ready yet. Here are links (1[14]) (2[15]) to some photos on Twitter.

    "I spotted at least three beacons, one from W4, and the other was too unstable to decode properly as they come and go. See photos. Some of the ones calling on FT8 had signals dancing up and down in a pattern of a few minutes. I think of sporadic E, as this is the season."

    Sunspot numbers for April 15 - 21 were 22, 44, 28, 15, 36, 54, and 47, with a mean of 35.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 72, 76.5, 75.3, 78.1, 85.9, 80, and 78, with a mean of 78. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 19, 29, 16, 18, 13, and 7, with a mean of 16.4. Middle latitude A index was 11, 15, 20, 13, 15, 10, and 7, with a mean of 13.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[16] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[17] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[18] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[19] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[20] website.

    Instructions[21] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[22] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/images/SDO/SDO_HMIIF_1024.jpg
    [2] https://www.solarham.net/farside.htm
    [3] http://www.dailydx.com/
    [4] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif
    [5] http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
    [6] https://bit.ly/2Qq0jIH
    [7] https://bit.ly/3noJqdH
    [8] http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/
    [9] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
    [10] https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
    [11] http://dx.qsl.net/propagation20http:/www.solarham.net
    [12] https://go.nasa.gov/2RYl2DW
    [13] http://www.arrl.org/cover-plaque-poll
    [14] https://twitter.com/co7wt/status/1383490344231202827
    [15] https://twitter.com/co7wt/status/1383526601367818244
    [16] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [17] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [18] http://k9la.us/
    [19] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [20] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [21] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [22] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 30 13:47:18 2021
    04/30/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots have continued to appear every day after April 11 - the last day with no sunspots.

    Average daily sunspot number rose this week from 35.1 to 47.6, and average daily solar flux also rose, from 78 to 79.2.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index declining from 16.4 to 10.7. The most active day was April 25 with a planetary A index of 20.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 77, 75, and 72 on April 30 - May 2; 70 on May 3 - 6; 72 on May 7 - 9; 73 on May 10 - 11; 74 on May 12 - 13; 77 on May 14; 79 on May 15 - 23; 78 on May 24 - 2, and 75 and 73 on May 28 - 29.

    Predicted planetary A index 8 on April 30 - May 1; 15, 12, 12, and 8 on May 2 - 5; 5 on May 6 - 10; 8, 12, 20, and 30 on May 11 - 14; 15 on May 15 - 16; 12 on May 17; 5 on May 18 - 19; 15 and 10 on May 20 - 21; 5 on May 22 - 28, and 15, 12, and 10 on May 29 - 31. After that, things are quiet over the first week of June.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for April 30 - May 25 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on May 18 - 19, 25


    o quiet to unsettled on May 5 - 11, 17, 24


    o quiet to active on April 30, May 12, 20 - 23


    o unsettled to active May (1 - 4,) 16


    o active to disturbed May 13 - 14, (15)


    o Solar wind will intensify on (April 30 - May 1),



    May 3 - 5, (6 - 7, 10 - 11, 16,) 17 - 18, (21 - 25)

    Remarks

    * Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    * Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the forecast.

    Jon, N0JK, in Kansas, reports:

    "On April 26 @ 2100z I copied LU2FFD (FF97) on 50.313 MHz FT8 at -11 dB. Did not complete a contact. This was a sporadic E to TEP path."

    Update from Frank, W3LPL:

    "Propagation is somewhat better, but at times somewhat worse, as Solar Cycle 25 somewhat fitfully climbs toward solar maximum, likely in late 2024. Slowly improving propagation interrupted by more frequent and intense geomagnetic storms are both encouraging indicators that Solar Cycle 25 is starting to accelerate to solar maximum likely in late 2024.

    "The recent sustained rise in SFI is a positive indicator that Solar Cycle 25 is finally starting to accelerate and gradually improve propagation on the higher bands. So far the improvement is minor, but the recent sustained increased SFI is good news and an indicator of likely significant improvement during the night on 20 and 30 meters this summer and generally improved propagation on 30 meters and above by the October/November contests.

    "The solar flux[1] adjusted for the varying distance between the earth and the sun, has been mostly in the high 70s and low 80s since mid-April. This slowly rising trend is likely to continue, and we're likely to see adjusted SFI sustaining in the low to mid 80s or even higher by this summer.

    "The other good news - yes, good news - is that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are now occurring much more frequently. More frequent CMEs are a reliable indicator of accelerating Solar Cycle 25 progress. Fortunately, CMEs significantly degrade propagation only when two conditions are met simultaneously: (1) the CME is earth directed, and (2) the orientation of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field is southwards (-Bz).

    "By now, May QST has arrived in everyone's mailbox. Because NASA now forecasts solar maximum in 2024, you may want to get out the red pencil and revise the four occurrences of '2025' in my article to '2024.'"

    WB8VLC reported from Salem, Oregon, on April 24:

    "Another 10 meter good day. Today 10 is open again on both SSB to South America (Chile) and CW to New Zealand, with great signals even though the solar numbers are nothing to brag about.

    "A quick listing of today's openings up to this time and the band is still open but I'm just listening now.

    "Two contacts are fine for me today, as I don't like being a DX Piggy and I'd rather listen and let others have at it while I do some radio programming on some new 6 meter FM land mobile radios, and while I'm listening now the band is still going long to ZL on CW, and Chile on SSB:"




    2021-04-24



    19:51



    CE7VPQ



    28.455



    SSB FE36fu Chile




    2021-04-24



    20:54



    ZL3IO



    28.026



    CW RF80lf New Zealand



    Earlier he reported:

    "This is a small report what with me only having a couple of hours of time to get on the radio these days on weekends and week-day real work-work and these are stations that I worked during my breaks.

    "April 22 on 10-meter FT8 was interesting, with a nice opening to Indonesia on 28.074.

    "Even though it's FT8, the Indonesians were audible, with tones actually moving my K3'S S-meter to around 5/5.

    "April 20 was a great day with activity on 29.6 FM to New Mexico and Brazil using my cross-coupled 10 FM to 220 remote base while at work during breaks.

    "The weekend of April 18 was typical of what I experience every weekend, SSB and CW to South America with strong sigs for hours.

    "My setup is a K3S with homebrew LDMOS amp at ~300 W on SSB/CW into a 4el OWA Yagi at 30 feet.

    "For 29.6 FM, I use a Motorola Maxtrac with 60 W out that is cross-connected to a 220 MHZ Maxtrac set up as a remote base system, so I can operate 10 FM from work during lunch time, and I use the same 4-element OWA Yagi as I use on SSB/CW when operating FM:"




    2021-04-22



    01:53



    YC9FZ



    28.074



    FT8



    OI71ph



    Indonesia




    2021-04-22



    01:46



    YB2MM



    28.074



    FT8



    OI43tc



    Indonesia




    2021-04-20



    21:48



    PY2HP



    29.600



    FM



    GG66



    Brazil




    2021-04-20



    19:02



    WA6BJH



    29.600



    FM



    DM75am



    USA




    2021-04-18



    19:50



    PY2TMV



    28.470



    SSB



    GG67pt



    Brazil




    2021-04-18



    19:13



    ZV5M



    28.020



    CW



    GG54rl



    Brazil



    Here's an article[2] from Oxford Academic on forecasting Solar Cycle 25

    Ted Leaf, K6HI, sent this EarthSky article[3] about a flare in another solar system.

    Sunspot numbers for April 22 - 28 were 42, 29, 62, 57, 54, 47 and 42, with a mean of 47.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 83.5, 77.4, 78.5, 78.8, 80.3, 79.4, and 76.8, with a mean of 79.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 15, 10, 20, 14, 8, and 3, with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 15, 10, 16, 12, 8, and 4, with a mean of 9.9.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
    [2] https://academic.oup.com/mnras/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/mnras/stab1159/6253222
    [3] https://earthsky.org/space/record-breaking-flare-from-proxima-centauri
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 7 13:08:20 2021
    05/07/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Our sun seems to have fallen back into a very quiet phase, far different from the way it looked in November 2020. That was 6 months ago, and we assumed that since we were emerging from a solar minimum, by now we would be seeing much more solar activity. It hasn't happened. More recently, sunspots disappeared after May 1, and solar flux naturally declined as well.

    Sunspots were visible only the first 3 days of the April 29 - May 5 reporting week, so the average daily sunspot number declined from 47.6 last week to 11.9 in the current period.

    But early this morning, May 7, a new sunspot group 2822 is emerging over the sun's northeastern horizon. You can see it as that white splotchy mass crossing the upper left in this STEREO satellite image[1].

    Over the past week the average daily solar flux slipped by 7 points, from 79.2 to 72.2. It seems odd, but both the average daily planetary and middle latitude A index remained the same for both weeks, 10.7 and 9.9 respectively.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month appears listless, never even reaching 80, with values of 71 on May 7; 72 on May 8 - 9; 74 on May 10 - 11; 75 on May 12 - 13; 77 on May 14; 79 on May 15 - 17; 77 on May 18 - 21; 75 on May 22 - 24; 74 on May 25 - 26; 72 on May 27; 70 on May 28 - 31; 72 on June 1 - 4, and 74 on June 5 - 7.

    The planetary A index projection shows 5 on May 7 - 8; 8 on May 9 - 10; 5 on May 11 - 13; 15 on May 14 - 16; 12 on May 17; 5 on May 18 - 19; 15 and 10 on May 20 - 21; 5 on May 22 - 29; 12 on May 30 - 31; 10 on June 1, and 5 on June 2 - 6.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for May 7 - June 1 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on: May 7 - 8, 18 - 19, 25 - 26


    o quiet to unsettled on: May 9 - 11, 17, 24, 31, June 1


    o quiet to active on: May 12, (20 - 23, 27)


    o unsettled to active: May 16, 28 - 30


    o active to disturbed: May 13 - 14, (15)


    o Solar wind will intensify on: May (10 - 11, 16,) 17 - 18, (21 - 25,) 28 - 30



    Remarks:

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the forecast.

    Contester Frank Donovan, W3LPL, says about twice as many geomagnetic storms occur during March and April, as compared to June and July. The ratio of severe (Kp = 8 or 9) storms is much greater. But, he points out, the end of "geomagnetic storm season" doesn't mean the end of geomagnetic storms; two of the most severe (Kp = 8+) geomagnetic storms during Solar Cycle 24 occurred on June 22 and 23, 2015.

    Storms during June and July are not as frequent, as strong, nor as long lasting as they are during the geomagnetic storm seasons of March/April and September/October. But geomagnetic storms even the most severe storms (Kp = 8 or 9) can occur at any time with little warning.

    We've had two moderate (Kp = 6) storms so far this year, both during March. We also had eight minor (Kp = 5) storms: five in March and one each in January, February, and April.

    Often I will check PSKReporter[2] for FT8 signals reported on 6 or 10 meters over the most recent 15 minutes. If I set it to "country of the call sign" instead of my grid square, I often notice signals detected in the southeast of North America when nothing is happening here on the west coast.

    Right now late at night, it is reporting 6 meter FT8 signals over a 545-mile path from N2GHR to N8NQ at 0639 UTC, and then on 10 meters at 0658 UTC 381 miles KO4FSZ to KC2DUX at -2 dB. That's almost audible!

    KB1XP in Connecticut (FN31po) reports, "It seems that 20-meter early morning propagation is improving with the increased sunspot activity lately. I had a brief but productive 20-meter band opening on May 3 from 0536 to 0558 EDT and worked JH1XPA, JA7LGE, JR7RHO Japan stations on FT8 with good signal reports. Hopefully, this is a sign of good things to come."

    On May 5, WB8VLC reported from Salem, Oregon, "True to form, 10 meters still provides interesting DX. This weekend like clockwork E51JD was back in on SSB, but this opening was short and much weaker than previous days. But still even with low SFI numbers he was workable.

    "On the 29.6-MHz FM side, a good sporadic-e opening on May 2 brought the Los Angeles area in with regulars AA6DD, K6YYL, and N6OS worked with typical 59+ reports on 29.6 FM. Then today, TI2JS on 29.6 FM.

    "The interesting day, however, was May 3, when I dropped down to 28.074 FT8 just to see if the band was open, calling CQ DX on FT8. I use it here at times on a quiet band just to see where I should point my beam.

    "Well this brought almost two dozen Japan contacts on 10 FT8. But one station, JD1BMH on Ogasawara Island, stood out of the group, and after I signed with Ogasawara on FT8 I dropped down to 28.072 CW, and after just one CQ DX, JD1BMH Ogasawara saw me on his waterfall and came down to CW for a quick contact.

    "Sigs with Ogasawara were over 559 on CW both directions, and after we signed JD1BMH called CQ for the next 35 minutes.

    "No other Japan stations took the bait to move off FT8 and drop to CW, so it was only Ogasawara worked on CW, which was fine for me.

    "Today was another interesting day on 29.6 FM, with TI2JS in Costa Rica worked on FM with nobody else heard all day.

    "I worked 22 Japan stations on 28.074 FT8, one KL7, and one VK4, all worked on May 3 on FT8, 28.074.

    "On 6 meters on May 2, 3, and 4 a bit of 50.125 SSB, 50.094 CW and even some 52.525 FM brought some nice QSOs with Arizona, Utah and California on 6 meters."

    Steve Sacco, NN4X, sent these articles [1[3]] [2[4]] about timelines of spaceweather storms:

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted her latest report[5] a few days ago.

    Sunspot numbers for April 29 - May 5 were 37, 35, 11, 0, 0, 0 and 0, with a mean of 11.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 76.9, 72.9, 71.6, 72, 71.6, 70.6, and 69.5, with a mean of 72.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 15, 10, 20, 14, 8, and 3, with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 15, 10, 16, 12, 8, and 4, with a mean of 9.9.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [3] https://bit.ly/3b99KmU
    [4] https://bit.ly/3b6ljvm
    [5] https://youtu.be/CjiAIMDXEFk
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 14 13:21:19 2021
    05/14/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity returned last Friday, May 7, and has held steady since. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 11.9 to 21.1, and average daily solar flux was up 2.1 points to 74.3 for the reporting week ending May 12.

    Geomagnetic activity was quiet until Wednesday, May 12, when the planetary A index went to 41 as the result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that blasted out of the sun on May 9. It was not expected to be very strong, but when it struck on May 12, it sparked a G3 class geomagnetic storm - the strongest in the current solar cycle.

    The planetary A index rose to 41, far above an average of 3.8 on the previous 6 days. The average daily planetary A index for the May 6 - 12 reporting week was 9.1 and average middle - latitude A index was 7.4.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 75 on May 14 - 19; 70 on May 20 - 21; 72, 80, and 79 on May 22 - 24; 78, 77, and 73 on May 25 - 27; 72 on May 28 - 30; 70 on May 31 and June 1; 71 and 75 on June 2 - 3; 76 on June 4 - 5; 74 on June 6 - 7; 75 on June 8 - 9; 77 on June 10, and 79 on June 11 - 13.

    The predicted solar flux[1] of 84 on June 15 in the 45-day forecast seems to be an outlier. It's odd that predicted solar flux would shift from 78 to 84 to 77, but we saw a similar prediction[2] recently for that same value a week into the future. Any trace of it here seems to have disappeared down the memory hole.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 14 - 16; 15, 12, 8, 5, and 8 on May 17 - 21; 5 on May 22 - June 5; 8, 5, and 8 on June 6 - 8, and 8, 5, 12, 18, and 15 and on June 9 - 13.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for May 14 - June 8 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group, which has been compiling weekly geomagnetic activity forecasts since January 1978.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on: May 19, 25-26, (27-31)


    o quiet to unsettled on: May 21, 24, 31, June 1-8


    o quiet to active on: May (14-16, 18, 20-23)


    o unsettled to active: May (17)


    o active to disturbed: none


    o Solar wind will intensify on: May (16,) 17-18, (21-25,) 28-30



    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Contradictory indications significantly reduce forecast accuracy.

    Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28), wrote: "6-meter E skip to W6 on May 14 to Silicon Valley. Worked AH0U and N5KO, both in CM97. They are in the sporadic E 'doughnut' between single and double hop Es."

    Ken Brown, N4SO, checks this graph of the EISN[3] - the estimated international sunspot number - a daily value obtained by a simple average over available sunspot counts from 85 world-wide observers in the SILSO network and, "compares it with propagation on 30 and 17 meters. Of interest are stations in China, Japan, Korea, and Asiatic Russia propagated at 6,000 miles plus." Also see the SIDC/SILSO International Sunspot Number[4].

    Ken also reported that on May 11, the W1AW code practice bulletin on 17 meters were 40 dB over S-9. "So I called CQ QRP." He had the power set all the way down on his Elecraft K2, which is 100 mW. He heard or worked W3UA, KM3T, and at 3 W worked K7QO. On FT8 on 30 meters, he worked "a long string of Japanese stations" from 0745 until 1114 UTC - 26 stations in all. The strongest were JE0ART (-3 dB) and JA1IOA (+5 dB) over a roughly 7,000-mile path.

    The Reverse Beacon Network (RBN) on 10 meters showed KC0VKN (Iowa) in QSO with K4SE (Tennessee) at 1043 UTC on May 11.

    This article, "Using Sporadic E, Es Propagation for Amateur Radio" in Electronics Notes, was mentioned in The ARRL Contest Update[5] newsletter for May12. Then visit the propquest page[6] for an interesting online real-time sporadic-e tool.

    Here are two recent reports [1[7]] [2[8]] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for May 6 - 12 were 0, 15, 17, 18, 36, 31 and 31, with a mean of 21.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 70.8, 74.5, 71.6, 75.9, 76.5, 76.1, and 74.7, with a mean of 74.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, and 41, with a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 4, and 25, with a mean of 7.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[11] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

    Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[15] your reports and observations. 


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/051345DF.txt
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [3] http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot
    [4] https://ssa.sidc.be/prod/WEB/index.php?component=archive&amp;pc=S108&amp;psc=a
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/the-arrl-contest-update
    [6] http://www.propquest.co.uk/map.php
    [7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjiAIMDXEFk
    [8] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTSG2Jqzntw
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 21 14:39:01 2021
    05/21/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity continues this week, although the average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux have not really changed since last week's report. This was not expected, because on the first day of the reporting week in last week's bulletin ARLP020, there was no sunspot activity.

    Average daily sunspot number hardly changed, from 21.1 to 20.3, and average daily solar flux went from 74.3 to 74.2. I am surprised that solar flux still remains below 80, since April 20.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, but values were slightly lower. Average daily planetary A index changed from 9.1 to 6.6, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 7.4 to 6.3.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 72 on May 21 - 27; 73 on May 28; 75 on May 29 - 31; 77 on June 1; 78 on June 2 - 12; 73, 77, and 77 on June 13 - 15, and 75 on June 16 - 27.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on May 21 - 22; 5 on May 23  -  June 10, 8, 5, 10, and 8 on June 11 - 14; 5, 10, and 8 on June 15 - 17, and 5 on June 18 - 30 and beyond.

    The Thursday (May 20) planetary A index rose dramatically due to increasing solar wind. The STEREO[1] website at has been a good indicator of approaching sunspot activity about to rotate over the sun's eastern horizon, and currently on early Friday I can see a bright active region about to become geo-effective.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast from J. K, Janda, OK1HH, for May 21 - June 15, 2021. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on May 25-26, (27-31,) June 9-10, 12-13


    o quiet to unsettled on May 24, June 1-8


    o quiet to active on May (21-23, June 11, 14)


    o unsettled to active (June 15)


    o active to disturbed none


    o Solar wind will intensify on May (21-25,) 28-30, June (7,) 9, (14-15)



    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the forecast.

    WB6VRN spotted a new location for the NOAA solar cycle progression page[2], and notes the site is interactive.

    K1HTV reports:

    "On 17 meters during the late afternoon on May 18, 2021, I completed WAC (Worked All Continents), using the FT8 mode, in 11 minutes. Around 3:15 AM EDT the next morning, after awaking from a restless sleep and while still horizontally polarized, I turned on my Android phone. I connected to my shack computer and its three video monitors using the VNC app.

    "At that early hour (0715 UTC) here at my Virginia QTH, I found 17 meters was already open to Europe. I switched down to 30 meters FT8 and proceeded to work some DX. To my amazement, I was able to make FT8 contacts with all continents to complete WAC (Worked All Continents) in 6 minutes even! Below is the K1HTV log for those contacts, which may be a world record for WAC in the shortest time, at least for the FT8 mode.

    OC - VK4PN - 2021-0519 07:25:00 started 1st QSO

    EU - F2YT - 2021-0519 07:26:30 send 73 to end 2nd QSO

    AF - EA8AT - 2021-0519 07:27:45 sent 73 to end 3rd QSO

    AS - JH1CCN - 2021-0519 07:28:30 sent 73 to end 4th QSO

    NA - CO8LY - 2021-0519 07:29:30 sent 73 to end 5th QSO

    SA - CE3ALY - 2021-0919 07:31:00 sent 73 to end 6th QSO and complete WAC

    "All QSOs were made while running 75 W to the 30 meter trap dipole of an A3WS antenna."

    N4SO in Southern Alabama reports:

    "I often listen to 28 MHz propagation beacons starting with 28.175 VE3TEN[3], ending at 28.300 MHz. I also have about ten 28 MHz beacons in the log from 0000 to 0100 UTC.

    "From the HF Beacon Reflector and WJ5O for May 20 Evening "GREYLINE" my location. 0025-0030 UTC, 20 May 2021, I can hear/identify ten 10-meter beacon signals into EM71as.




    28.2025



    KA3BWP



    STAFFORD, VIRGINIA



    1074 km



    667 miles




    28.208



    WN2A/AK2F



    BUDD LAKE, NEW JERSEY



    1424 km



    885 miles




    28.216



    K3FX



    NEPTUNE CITY, NEW JERSEY



    1424 km



    885 miles




    28.2313



    N3TVV



    JIM THORPE, PENNSYLVANIA



    1364 km



    848 miles




    28.2327



    N2MH



    WEST ORANGE, NEW JERSEY



    1449 km



    869 miles




    28.236



    W8YT



    MARTINSBURG, WEST VIRGINIA



    1112 km,



    691 miles




    28.246



    KG2GL



    NUTLEY, NEW JERSEY



    1144 km



    715 miles




    28.269



    AA1TT



    CLAREMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE



    1763 km



    1095 miles




    28.2865



    WB0BIN



    SABIN, MINNESOTA



    1900 km



    1181 miles




    28.296



    W3APL



    LAUREL, MARYLAND



    1172 km



    733 miles



    Jeff Hartley, N8II, wrote:

    "The sporadic E season has gotten off to a great start. Just in the past 2 days, there were the sporadic E 28-MHz openings into Europe! On the 18th, I saw a spot for F4DSD in France on 10 meter SSB. We worked, but just barely; after a struggle to copy my call, he gave me a 3 x 3 report at 2016 UTC. Hearing nothing else, I QSYed down to 15 CW and worked GW3TMP in Wales and EA8TL in Canary Islands. Then I managed to catch Hugh, EI2HI, in Ireland and we exchanged 4 x 2 reports.

    "The morning of the 19th featured a fairly widespread but weak opening to EU on 10 meters.

    "My first EU QSO was at 1410 UTC with ON7HJA in Belgium on SSB. Then I heard Gyuri, HA5JI, in Hungary who was the loudest of the opening, S-7 when we worked, then later near the end at 1433 UTC S5. Also worked F8DGY and Germany on CW. I finally got back to the radio at 2015 UTC and quickly found DK7LX in Germany on 10 CW who was S-7. As we finished, Ron, SP8ARY, was calling me; we moved up and made a QSO; he was my first 10-meter Polish QSO in my log started January 2017.

    "Next I called a CW CQ once and was rewarded with a string of EU callers from Germany, England, Czech Rep., Serbia, France, Denmark (OZ4VW, first Danish op in my 10 meter log - new band slot), Netherlands and two more Poles including SQ1921PS. Many were rather weak. I then switched to SSB to find stronger signals as the opening improved. Ady, G6AD, in England was S-6 and Karel, ON2KP was S-8. 3Z1921PS in Poland was a new SSB band slot, as was 5P1B, Denmark 6 minutes later. Of course, I found Ian, MM0TFU in Scotland about S-7 who always seems to be there when 10 opens to North America. Calling CQ on SSB, I worked a long string of EU stations with few if any CQs needed to log the next station. The majority were in western EU, only one weak Italian. Additional SSB countries logged were France, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Germany, and Austria. I made many QSOs with England. After 2128 UTC, I searched out stations and found Nick, LZ3ND, in Bulgaria who was peaking over S-9 - no wonder with his four stacked 7-element Yagis. Also worked LZ5DD. PI4DX also with stacked 6-element Yagis was S-9.

    "My last SSB QSO before dinner at 2158 UTC was S52WW, Slovenia, for a new band slot. Returning at 2238 UTC, I found Tom, 9A2AJ, Croatia on CW (new slot), OA4DX, Peru on 12 CW for new slot, and Gordon, MM0GPZ who was S-7 - S-8 on 10 SSB, S-7 on 12 (my antenna only 2-element Yagi), and a solid S-9 on 15. Despite the great conditions on 15, there was very little SSB or CW activity. My last 10-meter QSO was EI7HBB, Ireland, on SSB at 2318 UTC - a very long opening. I made in total 64 10-meter QSOs with Europe."

    Wow, Jeff!

    Russ W4NI reports from Nashville:

    "The solar storm on 12 May 2021 was not too bad. Despite K=7 at both 1200 and 1500 UTC, I was able to work DK, EA, LZ, 9A, on 20 CW from TN."

    Sunspot numbers for May 13 - 19 were 24, 24, 24, 11, 11, 24 and 24, with a mean of 20.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 74.7, 70.9, 73.3, 73.2, 74.8, 76.4, and 75.9, with a mean of 74.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 8, 5, 6, 10, and 6, with a mean of 6.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 8, 4, 6, 10, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
    [3] http://www.oarc.net/photos/ve3ten/ve3ten.html
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 28 14:56:13 2021
    05/28/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: The 10.7-centimeter solar flux rose this week, and on Wednesday May 26 it reached 88, the highest it's been since December 7, 2020, when it was 89.5. The next day at 2300 UTC, the flux value was 94.2.

    The official flux value is always the local noon reading at Canada's Dominion Radio Astrophysical Research Facility[1] in Penticton, British Columbia, 177 miles northeast of Seattle. Readings[2] are available three times a day.

    Average daily solar flux rose this week to 77.8 from last week's average of 74.2, while the average daily sunspot number increased from 20.3 to 24.9. I hope this signals a return to the enhanced activity and HF conditions we saw at the end of 2020, and a resumption of Solar Cycle 25's upward climb.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 83, 81, 80, and 76 on May 28-31; 72 on June 1-3; 73 on June 4; 74 on June 5-10; 75 on June 11; 77 on June 12-15; 79 on June 16-23, and 76 on June 24-29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 5, 8, 5, and 8 on May 28 - June 1, then 5 on June 2 and beyond, possibly into mid-July.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for May 28 - June 22 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on: May (30 - 31), June 9 - 10, 12 - 13


    o quiet to unsettled on: June 1 - 8, 17 - 20


    o quiet to active on: May 28 - 29, June 11, 14 - 16, 21 - 22


    o unsettled to active: nothing predicted


    o active to disturbed: nothing predicted


    o solar wind will intensify on: May 28 - 30, June (7), 9, (14 - 15, 17 - 19, 22)



    Remarks:

     - The increased geomagnetic activity on May 26 - 27 was due to solar flares with CME on May 22. Therefore, it could not be predicted on May 20.

     - Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

     - Accuracy of the forecast remains lower.

    Jon Jones, N0JK, in Kansas reports:

    "The summer 2021 sporadic E season is off to a strong start. Here in Kansas I had Europe in on 6 meters May 19. DK1MAX peaked to -3 dB with audible tones at 1540 UTC. Earliest I have had Europe on 6-meter Es.

    May 26 Hawaii to the Midwest on 6 meters. KF0M (EM17) in Wichita had KH6CJJ on Maui up to -4 dB around 2000 UTC. The Hawaiians were in for more than an hour. The mode was FT8."

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI, in Dixon, California, writes:

    "Quite a surprise for the solar flux to jump up into the 80s and then the 90s today (Thursday).

    "I was trying out a modified small HF loop (homebrew) on my kayak in the Mokelumne River in Northern California today and wasn't getting out very well. Then I thought I'd give 17 SSB a final try before packing up my gear. Transmitter power was 12 W.

    "Heard two VKs coming in loud and clear and managed to catch VK2CPC, Les, just as he finished a QSO. He gave me a 3 x 3 report and managed to get my call sign correct. Fortunately my kayak was in such a position that the loop was aimed toward Australia.

    "And, my buddy caught two bass. Good day for both of us."

    Michael May, WB8VLC in Oregon reports:

    "Another weird week of non-ham activity on 10 meters to report along with lots of 6 meter activity. The most interesting thing heard on 10 meters was non ham intruders, heard this past Sunday. I was tuning around on 10 meters looking for beacons when I came across some North Korean fishing boats operating on 28.175 and 28.275 MHZ FM mode. This was at 2120 UTC on May 22, and the signals were in for the next 2 hours. The attached recording is condensed from over a 2-hour period [email K7RA for a 836 kB MP3 copy].

    "A co-worker listened to the recording and said it sounded like a North Korean dialect and after more research we found that they are most likely squid fishing boats around the Asiatic Russian coast north of Japan and east of mainland Asiatic Russia, where these boats are typically found. The signals peaked on my 4-element, 10 meter OWA at 330°.

    "I have not heard these signals in more than 9 years, which leads me to think that a 10 meter FM path to Japan is possible. Research on these boats indicates only 25 W of FM carrier with 102-inch whips.

    "No real interesting 10-meter ham contacts to list as the North Korean fishing boats were certainly enough for my 10 meter listing.

    "Six meters was my best band over the past 2 weeks for real ham to ham QSOs and here are some of the interesting ones. All of the 6 meter SSB contacts were well over S-9 both ways and the QSOs lasted for more than 45 minutes each, real rag chews.

    "On 6 meters SSB/FT8/CW I use my K3S to a 6-element HyGain Yagi on the same boom as my four elements for 10 meters and 500 W from a home-made LDMOS amplifier.

    "On 6 meter FM I use the HyGain V-6R stacked 5/8th wave, 25-foot-long co-linear vertical and 110 W with a GE Orion FM land mobile transceiver.

    "Six meter contacts, all times/dates UTC:"




    2021-05-18



    0327



    KH6HI



    50.313



    FT8 BL01xi




    2021-05-19



    0420



    VE8CK



    50.313



    FT8 DP22TK




    2021-05-22



    0241



    W5WTX



    50.090



    CW DM95cc




    2021-05-23



    1859



    VE3WN



    50.313



    FT8 FN03ht




    2021-05-24



    0035



    W0VTT



    50.098



    CW EN33xx




    2021-05-24



    0120



    TI2ALF



    50.313



    FT8 EJ79xv




    2021-05-26



    0229



    KG4HOT



    50.180



    SSB FM07pt




    2021-05-26



    0232



    KD4AA



    50.180



    SSB FM17ur




    2021-05-26



    0243



    WB7PMP



    50.180



    SSB EM95pu




    2021-05-26



    0335



     KA6NLS/r



    51.940



    FM DM35cd Kingman, AZ




    2021-05-26



    1525



    VA3IKE



    50.313



    FT8 EN82qb



     

    N1API reported last week:

    "I suppose by now you have heard of the 6 meter opening on May 19. I was fortunate to work a total of 59 stations on FT8. The most amazing thing was that band was still open into Europe at 10 PM local, which would be 2 AM or later in Europe depending on how deep the opening was. Stations from the US were also seen. The next morning at daybreak had signals from Spain and Italy on 6 meters. I can't remember seeing conditions like this before."

    N4SO reports:

    "In the weird category, my signal was picked up on PSKreporter in Ukraine. The notation, a one and only, reads:

    Rx at Monday, 17 May 2021 18:08 GMT

    From N4SO BY UX0ZAB Loc KN66au15

    Frequency 28.074.741 MHz (10m) FT8 -13DB

    Distance 9552 kilometers, bearing 36°

    The map location shows Ukraine. At that time, I was transmitting, both calling CQ, and working mostly US. UX0ZAB is a monitoring station, and we did not make a contact, other than his reception report of my signal."

    Check this website for synoptic map images[3].

    It has been a long time since we presented anything YouTube[4] | article[5] about the important work of astronomer Hisako Koyama.

    Thanks to K5FB for this link: New Method Invented for Predicting Solar Radio Flux Two Years Ahead[6].

    A new solar telescope[7] is planned for the Canary Islands.

    Here's a new video[8] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

    Sunspot numbers for May 20 - 26 were 13, 13, 19, 30, 29, 36, and 34, with a mean of 24.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 72.3, 73.7, 75.6, 79, 72.7, 83.5, and 88, with a mean of 77.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 7, 5, 4, 4, 3, and 13, with a mean of 8.6. Middle latitude A index was 17, 8, 5, 4, 2, 3, and 12, with a mean of 7.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[11] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

    Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[15] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://nrc.canada.ca/en/research-development/nrc-facilities/dominion-radio-astrophysical-observatory-research-facility
    [2] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
    [3] https://nso.edu/data/nisp-data/synoptic-maps/
    [4] https://youtu.be/LxM9PhcY_90
    [5] https://kottke.org/21/05/hisako-koyama-the-woman-who-stared-at-the-sun
    [6] https://scitechdaily.com/new-method-invented-for-predicting-solar-radio-flux-two-years-ahead/
    [7] https://www.explica.co/it-will-be-built-in-the-canary-islands-from-2023-and-will-make-it-possible-to-distinguish-sunspots-of-only-30-km.html
    [8] https://youtu.be/qCtYMVjdMwM
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 4 11:12:38 2021
    06/04/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar Cycle 25 activity continues this week, with no spotless days since May 6. The average daily sunspot number rose modestly this week from 24.9 to 28 while the average daily solar flux held steady at 77.8.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 75 on June 4 - 6; 72 on June 7 - 11; 76 on June 11; 78 on June 12 - 15; 80 on June 16 - 18; 78 on June 19 - 22; 76, 75, and 76 on June 23 - 25; 72 on June 26 - July 5, and 73, 75, and on July 6 - 8. Solar flux may rise to 80 on July 13 - 15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on June 4 - 5; 5 on June 5 - 15; 20 and 10 on June 16 - 17; 5 on June 18 - 27; 8, 5, 8, and 8 on June 28 - July 1, and 5 on July 2 - 12.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for June 4 - 29 from J.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on June 10, 12 - 13, 24 - 27


    o quiet to unsettled on June 5 - 6, 17 - 20, 28 - 29


    o quiet to active on June 4, 7 - 9, 11, 14 - 15, 21 - 23


    o unsettled to active June 16


    o active to disturbed nothing predicted


    o solar wind will intensify on June (7,) 9, (14 - 19, 22, 24, 29)



    The increased geomagnetic activity on May 26 - 27 was caused by solar flares with a CME on May 22. Therefore, it could not be predicted in forecast issued on May 20.

    Remarks:

    -Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    -Accuracy of the forecast remains lower.

    From the Madison DX Club, program for Tuesday, June 8:

    "Modes of Propagation on 6 Meters" will be presented by propagation expert Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. Carl will begin with a brief look at the atmosphere and the ionosphere. He will then cover atmospheric modes (including polar mesosphere summer echoes and the Hepburn tropo maps) and ionospheric modes (E and F2 regions and sporadic-E). G3YLA's and K1YOW's recent work with sporadic-E, and the eBook by K5ND on 6 meters will be discussed. Finally, references for more 6-meter info will be listed. Carl will be available to answer your questions.

    Zoom host and Program Chairman, Kevin Shea, N9JKP, will be online from 5:45 CDT. Join[1] the Zoom meeting and program with the password 124658.

    Oleh, KD7WPJ/UR5BCP, wrote to say that UX0ZAB, mentioned in last week's bulletin, is indeed a Ukraine call sign.

    Ten-meter activity is starting to pick up. This website[2] promotes 10 meters.

    Here[3] is an interesting article on solar cycle prediction.

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, reports[4] the first radiation storm of Solar Cycle 25 in her latest YouTube presentation.

    Sunspot numbers for May 27 - June 2 were 34, 28, 26, 27, 31, 20, and 30, with a mean of 28. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 83.3, 77.4, 76, 74.4, 81.7, 75.2, and 76.3, with a mean of 77.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 3, 7, 6, 3, 3, and 5, with a mean of 6.1. Middle latitude A index was 15, 3, 7, 7, 4, 3, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83181396616?pwd=dUIrdWo3bE45T0xyUkZOS2xKdDBIZz09 [2] http://www.n6na.org/home/ten-meters
    [3] https://bit.ly/3cfSL2V
    [4] https://youtu.be/AfMDbesGWjA
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 11 15:30:48 2021
    06/11/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity has shown steady but modest increases over the past 3 weeks, with average daily sunspot weekly averages rising from 24.9 to 28 to 34.9. Oddly, average daily solar flux for the same 3 weeks was 77.8, 77.8, and 77.7, remarkably unchanged week after week.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 6.1 last week to 5.9 in this week's report, and middle latitude A index went from 6.3 to 6.9.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 75 on June 11 - 20; 80 on June 13 - 17; 75 then 80; 82 and 77 on June 21 - 23; 76 on June 24 - July 5; 74, 74, and 75 on July 6 - 8; 74 on July 9 - 14, and 75 on June 16 - 17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 11 - 13; 8 on June 14 - 15; 20 and 18 on June 16 - 17; 5 on June 18 - 25; 7 on June 26; 5 on June 27 - July 4; 15, 10, and 8 on July 5 - 7; 5 on July 8 - 12; 20 and 8 on July 13 - 14, and 5 after mid-July.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for June 11 - July 7 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, who has been compiling these reports since January 1978.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on June 12 - 13, 18 - 20, 24, 27 - 28, July 1 - 2


    o quiet to unsettled on June 11, 15, 17, 29 - 30, July 6


    o quiet to active on June 11, 14, 17, 21, 25 - 26, July 3 - 4


    o unsettled to active June 16, 22 - 23, July 5


    o active to disturbed - none


    o solar wind will intensify on June (11 - 13,) 17 ( - 18,) (22 - 24, 29,) July (2,) 4 - 5



    * Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Checking the STEREO mission[1] every day we see more activity in store over the sun's eastern horizon. You will recognize it as intense white splotches

    Watching 6 meters on pskreporter.info on June 10 at 0550 UTC, I noticed an odd late-night opening in western North America, showing many long-distance FT8 contacts. Some had positive signal reports, i.e., above the noise. This is notable because most reports on this website are negative (i.e., below the noise level), but one stood out. It was a 609-mile +5 dB report from K6VVP in San Francisco (CM87rs) to WA7DUH in Eastern Washington (DN06hg). Later I saw a 727-mile report from KA9UVY in Illinois (EM58mk) to N3OUC in Pennsylvania (FN20fm) at 0632 UTC with the signal at only -10 dB. Both reports showed the frequency as 50.314 MHz.

    Of course, when FT8 signal reports are above zero, the same path should be viable for other modes, such as CW and SSB.

    Michael May, WA8VLC/7 in Salem, Oregon wrote:

    "It's been 2 weeks since an update, and, aside from some FT8, SSB, and CW DX and stateside on 6 meters - including Trinidad and Hawaii on 50.313 and some midwest and eastern US and Canada on 6 meters FT8, SSB, and CW mostly last week. Still the most interesting and weird things occurred on 10 meters - both ham and non-ham activity.

    "On May 31 on 29.62 MHz FM, I found the KQ2H repeater in New York in for several hours, and I spent most of the day talking to several hams all over the eastern and southeastern US on this repeater, which never faded for the entire day.

    "I actually took an hour break and went to 10 SSB and worked French Guiana, and when I came back, the 29.62 repeater was still 20 dB over S-9. This was simply the best 10 meter activity I have seen in years on FM.

    "On June 9 at 0330 - 0355 UTC, another Salem ham, K6FIB, and I both heard several non-ham French-speaking stations coming through my 10-meter remote base on 29.6 FM, speaking to another much weaker non-ham station for 15 minutes.

    "At this time I zeroed my four-element 10 meter Yagi to ~195°, which put them somewhere in the Eastern Pacific, but where?

    "After some searching around on other 10 meter frequencies, I heard similar voices on 28.700 FM speaking a similar French dialect but this time two of them were readable. One appeared to be a base station that was much stronger, chatting with a much weaker, but readable, station.

    "After listening to the 28.700 FM transmission for a half-hour, the strong station identified as 'Pape'ete radio' at 0355 UTC, and several minutes later they slowly faded out.

    "This would put these transmissions in French Polynesia, but I found it interesting that no hams were on FM from that region on 10 meters.

    "In the past 30 years, I have never heard a ham station from these locations on FM, so that was not surprising at all; however, there were South Pacific hams in ZL on 28.074 FT8 and 10 meter CW at the same time.

    "These stations, aside from French speaking, sounded like standard FM Land Mobile stations you'd hear on VHF. But I am now discovering more of these odd non-ham signals between 26 and 39 MHz from non-US locations."

    [Great investigative work, Michael! Readers may recall in ARLP022 Michael reported hearing North Korean squid fishermen on 10-meter FM. Quite a "catch." - K7RA]

    "My recent logs, times in UTC:




    2021-06-06



    2011



    KC7I/KH6



    50.313



    FT8



    BL10




    2021-06-06



    1950



    9Y4D



    50.313



    FT8



    FK90gg




    2021-06-03



    0359



    K7EME



    50.155



    SSB



    DM42jh




    2021-06-03



    0358



    K7ZYP



    50.155



    SSB



    DM41KX




    2021-06-03



    0232



    W7PMS



    52.560



    FM



    DM34tn




    2021-06-01



    0207



    WB7PMP



    50.145



    SSB



    EM95pu




    2021-06-01



    0205



    K9PPY



    50.125



    SSB



    EN51xx




    2021-06-01



    0128



    WS9V



    50.092



    CW



    EM59DL




    2021-06-01



    0118



    W3HKK



    50.099



    CW



    EN80qe




    2021-06-01



    0108



    K9PPY



    50.095



    CW



    EN51xx




    2021-06-01



    0103



    K9MRI



    50.099



    CW



    EN70iu




    2021-06-01



    1708



    WA8FGV



    50.125



    SSB



    EN82ig




    2021-06-01



    1705



    K1EAR



    50.125



    SSB



    DN84lc




    2021-05-31



    0110



    VE2XK



    50.313



    FT8



    FN07pj




    2021-05-31



    0100



    VE4VT



    50.313



    FT8



    EN19kt



    "10 meters on the KQ2H FM repeater, 29.62 in New York state and French Guiana on 10 SSB:




    2021-05-31



    1952



    KR1COP



    29.620



    FM



    FN21tr




    2021-05-31



    1952



    W2GGI



    29.620



    FM



    EL96wk




    2021-05-31



    1949



    KD2VQR



    29.620



    FM



    FN21ro




    2021-05-31



    1945



    KD2SBO



    29.620



    FM



    FN21TO




    2021-05-31



    1933



    KK4ANE



    29.620



    FM



    EL97RV




    2021-05-31



    1932



    AA2EC



    29.620



    FM



    FN32dg




    2021-05-31



    1915



    FY5HB



    28.441



    SSB



    GJ34WH



    Jon Jones, N0JK reported from Kansas EM28 on Saturday, June 5: "Saw the east coast had a big Es opening to Europe all afternoon June 4. Nil out here.

    "May 30 and 31 good here. On May 31 had JA8JEP (QN03) in at -14 dB 2238z 50.323 MHz FT8.

    "June 5, XE2X spotted 9K2OD on 50.323 MHz FT8 at 1335z. That is remarkable.

    "2021-06-05 13:35 XE2X (EL06VC) 50.323.0 FT8 9K2OD (LL49AI) 12,871 km multihop Sp-E FT8 -06 TNX LOUD"

    Check out this video[2] of the huge antenna array built for the Soviet Union's former over the horizon HF radar, the so-called "Russian Woodpecker," a constant annoyance for HF operators a few decades ago. Quite impressive!

    Website[3] for the Apache Point Observatory in Sunspot, New Mexico.

    Here's the latest video[4] from the Space Weather Woman, Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for June 3 - 9 were 28, 30, 30, 42, 53, 34, and 27, with a mean of 34.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 75.5, 77.1, 74.4, 77.4, 80.8, 79.9, and 78.6, with a mean of 77.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 4, 5, 12, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 4, 4, 6, 15, 7, and 4, with a mean of 6.9.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] https://bit.ly/359URNG
    [3] https://www.apo.nmsu.edu/
    [4] https://youtu.be/1zpoInkZ_gE
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 18 12:47:35 2021
    06/18/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was lower this week, with the average daily sunspot number declining from 34.9 last week to 13.9 this week. This average was affected by the single day with no sunspots, Saturday, June 12.

    Average daily solar flux dropped from 77.7 to 75.2. The Penticton observatory in British Columbia (the source for the 10.7-centimeter solar flux) did not report a noon reading on Wednesday, June 16, so we averaged the morning (76.9 at 1700 UTC) and afternoon readings (77.1 at 2300 UTC) to come up with 77 as a reasonable approximation.

    Normally, the local noon reading (2000 UTC) is the official number for the day. You can get the three daily readings directly from the Dominion Astrophysical Observatory[1].

    On Thursday, the noon flux reading was 85, higher than it's been since May 26, when it was 88.

    Predicted solar flux for the near term is 75 on June 18-20; 80 on June 21-25; 77 on June 26-28; 78 on June 29 - July 7; 79 on July 8-10; 77 on July 11-13; 76 on July 14-16; 78 on July 17; 80 on July 18-20; 78 on July 21, and 77 on July 22-25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on June 18; 5 on June 19-25; 7 on June 26; 5 on June 27 - July 4; 15, 10, and 8 on July 5-7; 5 on July 8; 8 on July 9-11; 10, 12, 20, and 12 on July 12-15; 5 on July 16-22, and 7 on July 23.

    I am very excited about this forecast[2] for the new Solar Cycle 25, which we are now seeing only its early stages. Forbes Magazine reported this[3].

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for June 18 - July 15, from J.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on June 20, 24, 27 - 28, July 1, 10, 15


    o quiet to unsettled on June 18 - 19, July 11, 14


    o quiet to active on June 21, 23, 25 - 26, 29 - 30, July 2, 6 - 9


    o unsettled to active (June 22, July 3 - 5, 12 - 13)


    o active to disturbed - nothing!


    o Solar wind will intensify on June (18 - 19,) 21, (22 - 24, 29,) 30, July (2,) 3, 5, 10 - 11



    Remarks: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group, has been compiling this weekly geomagnetic activity forecast since January 1978.

    Jeff, N8II, wrote: "On June 4 - 5, there was a very good 10 meter sporadic E opening to Europe, which started well before I did at 2200 UTC. Ian, MM0TFU, was the first one in the log on 10 SSB with 5/8 reports both ways. Andy, LZ2HM, was next on CW with a good signal; no other EU stations within 1000 kilometers were worked. Most all of my QSOs were with the UK and Ireland; I worked all four major UK DXCC entities. EI6JK and EI3EIB were both loud after 2400 UTC; last QSO was 0022 UTC with a total of about 20 EU contacts. Signal levels were very good from most stations.

    "On June 11, 10 meters was open on Es to somewhere for most of the day. At 1900 UTC stations from Florida and the Gulf Coast were loud, including K4D on Dog Island IOTA NA-085 in the Big Bend area of the Gulf. Around 2000 UTC, I worked Missouri, Nebraska, and Michigan. Then at 2200 UTC 3 very loud VE3 stations from north-central Ontario. AC2CZ/VE2 in Montreal running 12 W into a dipole was next. Starting 2347 UTC I worked Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois before two double-hop Es contacts after 2400 UTC with N7WWH near the coast of north Oregon, and KM6YSS in Canyon County, Idaho. At 0027 UTC, XE1XR in central Mexico was S-9+ and easily worked, followed by Luis, XE2B, at 0036 UTC. All contacts were on SSB.

    "The ARRL June VHF Contest took place June 12 - 14, which found some sporadic E most of the time. On 6 meters SSB and CW, I made 130 QSOs with my poor-performing Yagi. The Es started around 2230 UTC with stations in Tennessee, Texas, and northern Florida. Sunday morning, Es started with W0WP in Iowa (EN42) and spread to other WOs, followed by an intense opening to the south and southwest, with my closest contact being with Ed, K3DNE, in EM94 SC. Many Georgia stations were very loud, as were many in Florida and some in Texas and Oklahoma. I also caught Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. At 1546 UTC, I found EA8BPX in the Canary Islands (IL18) and was able to get through. In the afternoon many local stations on FT8 were working EU stations mostly in Spain, France, and Portugal. I worked F4ARU in France at 1834 UTC on SSB. Late around 0100 UTC, the band was still open well to EM19 (NQ0P as loud as a nearby local), EM49, and EM18.

    "Today, June 17, there was an opening to Spain on 10 meters at 1950 UTC to EA7HZ and EA3AR. My noise level was very high. MM0TFU was reporting hearing beacons near my location and farther up the east coast at 2200 - 2300 UTC. At 0012 UTC on the June 18, I worked VP9KD in Bermuda who was S-9+ for a new band slot on 10 meters SSB."

    Sunspot numbers for June 10 - 16 were 29, 13, 0, 22, 11, 11, and 11, with a mean of 13.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.3, 77.3, 77.6, 68.9, 76.8, 75.5, and 77, with a mean of 75.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 10, 7, 4, 17, and 14, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 5, 11, 8, 7, 7, 15, and 15, with a mean of 9.7.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://bit.ly/35u12fU
    [2] https://bit.ly/2U7xt17
    [3] https://bit.ly/2UbEG0m
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 25 15:14:55 2021
    06/25/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Average daily sunspot number was 14 this reporting week (June 17 - 23), essentially unchanged from last week's 13.9. Average daily solar flux increased from 75.2 to 79.3.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter. Average planetary A index declined from 9.6 to 5.3, and average middle latitude A index dropped from 9.7 to 6.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 82 on June 25 - July 1; then 80 and 78 on July 2 - 3; 75 on July 4 - 7; 78 on July 8 - 11; 75 on July 12 - 16; 78 on July 17 - 22; 75 on July 23 - 25, and 78 on July 26 - 30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 25 - July 3; 12 on July 4; 5 on July 5 - 8; 8 on July 9 - 10; 5, 15, and 12 on July 11 - 13; 5 on July 14 - 20; 8 on July 21, and 5 on July 22 - 30.

    Sunspot Group 2833 is about to rotate over our sun's western horizon, but I see promising activity around and beyond the eastern horizon when viewing the STEREO mission images[1]. Also check the Solar Monitor[2] site to see this emerging activity.

    Note that the 2300 UTC June 22 solar flux reading[3] from the Dominion Astrophysical Observatory in Canada jumped way up to 104.5. The official solar flux for that day was the noon reading, 80.8 at 2000 UTC.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for June 25 - July 22 from J.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on June 27 - 28, July 1, 11, 16 - 17,


    o quiet to unsettled on June 25 - 26, July 6, 10, 14 - 15, 18 - 22


    o quiet to active on June 29 - 30, July 2 - 3, 7, 9


    o unsettled to active July 4 - 5, (8,) 12 ( - 13)


    o active to disturbed nothing foreseen


    o Solar wind will intensify on June (29,) 30, July (2,) 3 - 5, (9,) 10 - 12, (13 - 15, 18 - 20)



    Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Steve Gregory, VK3OT, sent details of a remarkable 6 meter opening on June 23 from Ukraine to Australia. He posted an image on his QRZ.com page[4]. Steve sent info on other openings from UB7K in Crimea, all reports were using FT8.

    KA3JAW looks for sporadic-e propagation on the FM broadcast band:

    "Kyle Whitley from Moses Lake, Washington [DN07hc], received audio with RDS on an over-the-air broadcast from Spirit FM[5], WBVM, 90.5, Tampa, Florida, via double-hop sporadic-e on June 17 at 0135 UTC (1835 PDT). That is 2,377 miles. He is the only Washington State FM-DXer that I am aware of who nailed Florida. During the event, he was hearing and locking onto RDS from multiple Kansas stations via single-hop Es.

    The odd part is that he only heard that one station (WBVM) along that line-of-bearing toward Kansas, then dropping into Florida. He used a portable SPARC SHD-TX2[6]. WBVM runs 100 kW with an antenna at 850 feet AGL. Check this YouTube video (at around 2:40).

    The US Postal Service has new postage stamps with solar images[7].

    Here's the latest video[8] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

    Sunspot numbers for June 17 - 23 were 12, 24, 15, 13, 11, 12, and 11, with a mean of 14. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 85, 77, 77.1, 76.4, 79.1, 80.8, and 79.7, with a mean of 79.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 4, 4, 4, 7, and 4, with a mean of 5.3. Middle latitude A index was 9, 8, 5, 4, 3, 8, and 6, with a mean of 6.1.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[11].

    A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

    Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[15] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [2] https://www.solarmonitor.org/
    [3] https://bit.ly/3jcOl1e
    [4] https://www.qrz.com/db/vk3ot
    [5] http://www.myspiritfm.com/
    [6] https://sparcradiowp.wpengine.com/product/sparc-shd-tx2/
    [7] https://store.usps.com/store/product/buy-stamps/sun-science-S_480804
    [8] https://youtu.be/ONsPsT2du_o
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 2 14:31:00 2021
    07/02/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity is strong! For the June 24 - July 1 reporting week, the average daily sunspot number rose from 14 to 34.7, while the average daily solar flux bumped up from 79.3 to 86.9. Both figures represent a dramatic increase in solar activity. The sunspot number last Thursday, June 24, was 56 - above the average of 34.7 and always a good sign.

    The planetary A index went from 5.3 to 6.1 over the reporting week, while the average daily middle latitude A index was steady at 6.1.

    The predicted solar flux is 94 on July 2 - 6; 90 on July 7 - 8; 85 on July 9 - 11; 82 on July 12 - 14; 80 on July 15 - 18; 82 on July 19; 85 on July 20 - 24; 88 on July 25; 90 on July 26 - 28; 92 on July 29 - August 1; 90 on August 2, and 85 on August 3 - 7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 8, 10, and 8 on July 2 - 6; 5 on July 7 - 8; 8 on July 9 - 10; 5, 15, and 12 on July 11 - 13; 5 on July 14 - 20; 8 on July 21; 5 on July 22 - 26; 10 on July 27; 5 on July 28 - 30; 12 on July 31; 5 on August 1 - 4; 8 on August 5 - 6, and 5, 15, and 12 on August 7 - 9.

    Here is the geomagnetic activity forecast for July 2 - 29 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on July 16 - 17, 24 - 25


    o quiet to unsettled on July 2 - 3, 6 - 7, 9 - 11, 18, 23, 29


    o quiet to active on July 4 - 5, 12, 14 - 15, (19 - 22), 26


    o unsettled to active July (8), 13, 27 - 28


    o active to disturbed nothing forecast


    o Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.



    Jon Jones, N0JK, reports from Kansas (EM28):

    "A sporadic-E opening to Europe on 50 MHz on July 1 to the Heartland (Midwest US) on the afternoon of July 1.

    "I decoded many Europeans. F6EXV in with a good signal, but difficult getting takers. Finally worked G4PLZ at 1933 UTC. He was my only PSK flag in Europe.

    "Even area ops who run kilowatts and big Yagis were having trouble raising Europe, but saw one work F6EXV and possibly EI4DQ. K0TPP (EM48) to the east was having better luck with Europe.

    "Here in northeast Kansas, I decoded EA, EI, F, G, and PA2M. EI3KD, EI4DQ had good signals."

    K4ZOT reported on June 28 from EM73 near Atlanta:

    "I thought you might be interested in this 6-meter DX, which totally caught me by surprise today.

    "I have been a 6-meter enthusiast since I received my license in 1964, when I operated a Layette HA-460 10 W 6-meter transceiver. In all this time I have never worked or heard an African station on 6. I have worked JA several times and other Pacific locations, but never Africa. Much to my total surprise today, June 28, at 1926 UTC, 5T5PA (Mauritania) suddenly popped on the FT8 JTALert Callsigns screen with an audio alert of new DX. Again, to my utter amazement, I worked him on the first call, a distance of 4,241 miles. Not the longest 6-meter DX by far but surprising, at least from this location. I believe he worked one or two other stations, and then he was gone - perhaps only on for 2 or 3 minutes. A wonderful 6-meter DX contact from my station using a five-element Yagi at only 32 feet.

    "Six is indeed the 'Magic Band,' as it has been for me for 55 years of operation. Best of all, Johannes confirmed the contact in LoTW just a few minutes after we made contact. Thank you, Johannes, a true ham in the best spirit of the hobby."

    KA3JAW reported:

    "On Thursday, July 1, at 10:15 AM EDT (1415 UTC), FM DXer Bryce Foster in Mashpee, Massachusetts, received 87.7 RTP Antena-3 Pico da Barrosa, Azores, via two-way Es. The station runs 30 kW vertical polarization. Distance 2,379 air miles. Reception lasted up to 35 minutes with audio identification along with a stream match. This is the first time I heard of a US to Azores link on the FM broadcast band."

    W9NY reported on June 28:

    "The propagation on 20 meters between my Dune Acres, Indiana, station and much of Europe and Asiatic Russia beginning last night at 11 PM and continuing for about 2 hours was absolutely amazing. It reminded me of 10 meters at the peak of prior sunspot cycles.

    "Around 14.208 I called CQ and worked one station after another, from Finland in the North to Corsica and Greece in the South and all across Russia to several points in Siberia. Many of the signal reports given and received were 20 to 30 dB over S-9. A couple 'nearly pinned' the needle on my Icom IC-7610. In fact, I worked many stations running 100 W to simple antennas like a dipole or vertical that were coming in over S-9 and a few stations that were QRP but still producing S-5 to S-7 signals. I have not heard an opening like that in many years, and it was certainly a lot of fun. I probably should have turned on my QRP rig, but I never got around to it.

    "Perhaps a harbinger of things to come.

    "I did check out 17, 15, 12, 10, and 6, which were all quiet.

    "And today there was a fair amount of activity on 10 meters and 6 meters."

    Frank, W3LPL, wrote:

    "Propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. There is a slight possibility that isolated below-normal intervals may briefly degrade propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions from midday Saturday through early Sunday.

    "We are in the quiet geomagnetic activity season; only about half as many geomagnetically disturbed days occur in June and July compared to the more geomagnetically active equinox seasons.

    "Sporadic-E propagation occurs every day during June and July at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere making long-distance propagation up to 15,000 kilometers (9,300 miles) sporadically available in the 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meter bands from sunrise through midnight and occasionally somewhat later.

    "The solar flux is likely to be at least 94 through Sunday. Solar active region 2835 has grown to 770 micro-hemispheres (2.3 billion square kilometers, four times the surface area of the Earth), almost as large as the active region that significantly improved HF propagation during late November 2020. Region 2835 is significantly improving HF propagation on 30 and 20 meters during late afternoon, at night, and during the early morning hours, and 17- and 15-meter propagation during the day through early evening. Active regions 2836 and 2837 are slowly and quietly decaying and are having no effect on HF propagation. See this Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) image[1] from July 2 @ 1346 UTC.

    "160- and 80-meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be seasonably normal through Sunday.

    "40-meter short-path propagation to south Asia is likely to be mostly normal at about 0015 UTC through Sunday. 40-meter short path propagation from North America to East Asia after about 0930 UTC is likely to be mostly normal with a slight possibility of isolated below-normal intervals on Saturday.

    "30-meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal, with a slight possibility of isolated below-normal intervals late Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon due to E-region blanketing of long-distance F2 propagation.

    "30-meter nighttime, long-distance propagation in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high-latitude regions caused by increased sunspot activity, higher solar elevation angles, and much shorter nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.

    "20-meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a slight possibility of isolated below-normal intervals late Saturday.

    "20-meter northern transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is improving with increased solar ionizing radiation on the northern polar region caused by increased sunspot activity and high solar elevation angles 24 hours per day during the midnight sun season. 20 meter long distance propagation is significantly degraded from mid-morning through late afternoon at low and mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere by F1 region midday blanketing of low-angle propagation during the summer.

    "20-meter late afternoon, nighttime and early morning long distance propagation in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to improve, due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high-latitude regions, caused by increasing sunspot activity, higher solar elevation angles, and much shorter nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.

    "17- and 15-meter daytime long-distance propagation in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high-latitude regions caused by increasing sunspot activity, high solar elevation angles, and long days.

    "17-, 15-, 12-, 10-, and 6-meter sporadic-E propagation up to 15,000 km (9,300 miles) is likely to be sporadically available from sunrise through midnight and occasionally later through late July.

    "Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high-speed stream effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor, and somewhat less frequent at least through late 2021. The southward-oriented (-Bz) component of the IMF plays a crucial, but unpredictable, role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth-directed coronal hole high-speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor-to-severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth-directed fast CME.

    "There is a slight possibility that Earth-directed effects of a weak CME and continuing weak coronal hole high-speed stream effects may slightly to moderately enhance IMF field strength, solar wind speed near Earth, and geomagnetic activity. If the weak CME is geo-effective, it may slightly degrade HF propagation through the auroral ovals from midday Saturday through early Sunday. Geomagnetic storms are not likely through Sunday. There is a slight possibility of an M-class solar flare from Friday through Sunday, but its possible effects on HF propagation are likely to be brief and minor.

    "Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere sunset is now 77 minutes later and day length is 163 minutes longer than it was on March 20. Day length and solar elevation angle in the northern polar region are slowly declining through mid-July, due to gradually waning summer solstice effects."

    Sunspot numbers for June 24 - 30 were 11, 25, 16, 32, 50, 56, and 53, with a mean of 34.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 80.6, 83.4, 82.4, 87, 88.6, 92.5, and 94.1, with a mean of 86.9.. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 7, 4, 4, 4, 5, and 14, with a mean of 6.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 8, 5, 4, 4, 5, and 11, with a mean of 6.1.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[4].

    A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

    Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[8] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 9 12:46:35 2021
    07/09/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity continues to increase. In last week's bulletin ARLP027 average daily sunspot number was 34.7. This week it jumped to 55.6. Average daily solar flux increased from 86.9 to 88.9.

    Despite solar flare activity pushing a sudden ionospheric disturbance and a dramatic HF radio blackout (on July 3), the average daily planetary A index for the week was only 5.7, down from 6.1 last week. The average middle latitude A index was also 6.1 last week, and it was 6.3 this week.

    The July 3 flare was an X1.5-class event, the biggest since September 2017 and the only X-Class solar flare since then. It got readers wondering what was up.

    Scott Craig, WA4TTK, wrote, "What happened about 1430 UTC on July 3? Some people on a forum are saying it was a massive solar flare. I was on 20 meter FT8 and my waterfall display went from solid red signals to solid nothing in the blink of an eye. It lasted about 10 minutes."

    Events such as this can be so dramatic that many may assume a hardware or antenna failure. Fortunately, these are rare.

    W3LPL developed an excellent narrative on this event. See "First X-Class Major Solar Flare of Solar Cycle 25 Blacks Out HF on July 3[1]."

    The event received some coverage outside the usual channels, including Market Research Telecast (MRT[2]), IFLScience[3], and CNN[4].

    Also, Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, our Space Weather Woman covered this[5] in her July 6 edition of "Space Weather News." Love her enthusiasm, as well as her solid science reporting.

    Predicted solar flux is 73 on July 9 - 13; 72 on July 12 - 13; 72 on July 14 - 15; 76 on July 16; 82 on July 17 - 18; 84 on July 19; 88 on July 20 - 22; 90 on July 23 - 28; 88 on July 29 - August 2; 84 on August 3; 82 on August 4 - 5; 80 on August 6 - 11, and 82 on August 12 - 14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 9 - 10; 8, 12, 16, 12, and 8 on July 11 - 15; 5 on July 16 - 17; 15, 12, and 10 on July 18 - 20; 5 on July 21 - 31; 10 and 8 on August 1 - 2; 5 on August 3 - 5, 15 and 12 on August 6 - 7, and 5 on August 8 - 13.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for July 9 - August 5 from Frantisek K. Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group. He has been compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecast since January 1978.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on July 14, 16-18, 21, 23-25, 28, 30-31, August 3-5


    o quiet to unsettled on July 9-10, 15, 22, 29, August 1-2


    o quiet to active on July 11, 13, 19-20, 26-27


    o unsettled to active July 12


    o active to disturbed none predicted



    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    Bob McHenry, G3NSM wrote:

    "On July 5, I was amazed to work KL7HBK at 1447 UTC on 50.323 MHz FT8. John is in Anchor Point, BO49, which is just south of Anchorage and I was beaming on the short path, 345°. It wasn't a marginal contact. John was in for 10 minutes and gave me a report of +05, which suggests he might have heard me on CW. I believe John also worked into [Europe] on the same day. He confirmed the contact with me on LoTW the next day.

    "Contacts between Alaska and Europe on 6 meters are very rare, and John was the only signal coming through from that region. There were no W6, W7, or VE7 stations audible as there had been on the previous day."

    Thanks, Bob. I will check for any reports from July 4.

    Jeff Hartley, N8II, in West Virginia wrote:

    "Between increased SFI and plentiful sporadic E it was a fun week on the bands.

    "The RAC Canada Day contest July 1 started with a good evening opening on 40 to all nearby areas of Canada. I worked about 65 stations in Ontario and Quebec, mostly on SSB. Sunday morning around 1400 - 1845 UTC, there was very intense sporadic E into all provinces from Ontario east to Newfoundland on all bands, including 10 meters. Normally Ontario is skipping over me on 20. I worked nine provinces on 15 CW, 10 on SSB, 8 on 10 CW, 9 on SSB! Even Labrador was worked on 15 SSB. The highlight was a run of five British Columbia stations on 10 meters CW at 1700. VE1 - VE9 except VE8 and VY2 Prince Edward Island were all logged on 10 SSB.

    "On July 2 starting 1340 UTC, I worked three English stations and PA1CC in the Netherlands on 10-meter Es. TM13COL, a special French call sign for the 13 Colonies on the Air event, was worked on 12 CW with a strong signal. Then, at 1455 UTC, amid many New England QSOs on 10, I worked two Italian stations and MM0TFU in Scotland. At 1533UTC I found LY4A Lithuania (new band slot) on 10 SSB and Germany.

    "17M was open late at 2340 UTC to Poland and S9 EI3GIB in Ireland on the July 3. On the July 4 at 2048 UTC, HB90BERO in Switzerland was S-9 on 15 SSB. I heard two Lebanese stations as well, with OD5ZZ peaking S-6, but no QSOs. At 2017, SO1WS Western Sahara was logged on 17 SSB, followed by V73NS in the Marshall Islands on 17 CW who was working Denmark and Portugal over the North Pole. At 2200 UTC, 17 was still wide open working Switzerland, Russia, Slovenia, the Dominican Republic, and England. G3YPZ moved up to 15 where he was S-5 on SSB followed by S-9+ IK4GRO in Italy. On the July 5 at 2212 on 15 CW KH0W in the Mariana Islands was weak over a tough path from here, and CT3MD Madeira was S-9+. On the July 6 at 1750 UTC, SP9FMP was marginally worked on 10 CW. ZA1E in Albania was a weak Q5, and stations very close to him in Europe were heard working him for about 15 minutes."

    The ARRL Contest Update reported, on July 7:

    "Six meters has been exciting over the last week or so, with reports of excellent intercontinental propagation. US hams have been enjoying many contacts with Asia and the EU. Craig, K9CT, worked a few new ones on July 2: 'Six meters was amazing today! DXCC total for 6 went from 128 to 141!' The Pacific Northwest has even been getting in on some of the action, with some stations reporting new countries worked on 6 even with antennas like 'a 20 meter dipole with an antenna tuner.' You can't work them if you don't try!"

    Sunspot numbers for July 1 - 7 were 56, 72, 81, 60, 43, 52, and 25, with a mean of 55.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 94.1, 94.9, 93.7, 91.1, 89.4, 83.2, and 76, with a mean of 88.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 4, 3, 7, 8, and 6, with a mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 6, 4, 4, 9, 8, and 6, with a mean of 6.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[8].

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.arrl.org/news/first-x-class-major-solar-flare-of-solar-cycle-25-blacks-out-hf-on-july-3
    [2] https://marketresearchtelecast.com/first-solar-x-class-flare-since-2017-caused-gps-and-radio-interference/95147/
    [3] https://bit.ly/3kcLSV5
    [4] https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/07/world/solar-flare-cycle-25-scn/index.html [5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSQFrVqONZI
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 16 14:15:22 2021
    07/16/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity declined this week - by a lot. Six and two meters yielded exceptional openings, however. The average daily sunspot number plummeted from 55.6 to 21.3, and the average daily solar flux slid from 88.9 to 72.9.

    Geomagnetic indicators remained about the same, with average daily planetary A index at 6.6, although the daily value increased to 14 on July 14, due to increasing solar wind.

    Predicted solar flux is 74 on July 16; 76 on July 17; 74 on July 18 - 20; 76 on July 21 - 22; 78 on July 23; 79 on July 24 - 28; 77 on July 29 - August 1; 75 on August 2; 74 on August 3 - 9; 73 on August 10 - 11; 75 on August 12 - 15; 79 and 81 on August 16 - 17, and 79 on August 18 - 24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on July 16; 5 on July 17 - 20; 8 on July 21 - 22; 5 on July 23 - August 1; 8 on August 2; 5 on August 3 - 7; 12, 16, and 12 on August 8 - 10; 8 on August 11 - 12, and 5 on August 13 - 28.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for July 16 - August 12 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on July 16-18, 25, 30, August 4, 7, 12 


    o quiet to unsettled on July 20, 23-24, 28-29, August 2, 9 


    o quiet to active on July 19, 21-22, 31, August 1, 6, 11 


    o unsettled to active July 26-27, August 3, 5, 8, 10 


    o active to disturbed none



    Notes:

    =Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    =The previous prediction of increased geomagnetic field activity for July 12 was correct, but the solar wind from the equatorial coronal hole apparently traveled a longer path by lower speed than expected. That's why it didn't arrive until July 14.

    Frank Donovan, W3LPL, reports:

    Propagation crossing low- and mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals, and polar regions is likely to be normal through Sunday, July 18.

    We are in the quiet geomagnetic activity season; only about half as many geomagnetically disturbed days occur in June and July, as compared to the more geomagnetically active equinox seasons.

    Sporadic-E propagation occurs every day during June and July at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, making long-distance propagation up to 15,000 km (9,300 miles) sporadically available on 17, 15, 12, 10, and 6 meters from sunrise through midnight and occasionally somewhat later.

    The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be 75 or less through Sunday. There are two small active regions on the solar visible disk[1] with one small sunspot and one tiny sunspot.

    160- and 80-meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south Pacific is likely to be seasonably normal through Sunday.

    40-meter short-path propagation to south Asia at about 0015 UTC is likely to be normal through Sunday.

    40-meter short-path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0930 UTC is likely to be normal through Sunday.

    30-meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long-distance F2 propagation.

    30-meter nighttime long-distance propagation in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to improve, due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by higher solar elevation angles and short nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.

    20-meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Sunday. 20 meter northern transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is improving, with longer-duration solar ionizing radiation on the northern polar region caused by high solar elevation angles 24 hours per day during the midnight sun season.

    20 meter long-distance propagation is significantly degraded from mid-morning through late afternoon at low and mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere by F1 region midday blanketing of low-angle, long-distance propagation during the summer.

    20-meter late afternoon, nighttime, and early morning long-distance propagation in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high-latitude regions caused by higher solar elevation angles and short nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.

    17- and 15-meter daytime long-distance propagation in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high-latitude regions caused by high solar elevation angles and long days. Sporadic-E propagation up to 15,000 kilometers (9,300 miles) on 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meters is likely to be sporadically available from sunrise through midnight and occasionally later through late July.

    Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high-speed stream effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent at least through late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz) component of the IMF plays a crucial, but unpredictable, role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth-directed coronal hole high-speed stream. More frequent, longer-duration minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth-directed fast CME.

    The solar wind is expected to be at background state through Sunday. The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet through Sunday. Coronal hole high-speed stream and CME effects, geomagnetic storms and solar flares are not likely through Sunday.

    Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere sunset is now 5 minutes earlier and daylength is 19 minutes shorter than it was on June 21. Daylength and solar elevation angle in the northern polar region are slowly declining due to gradually waning summer solstice effects.

    James O'Brien, W4AMP, in Dallas, Georgia, reports:

    "A fantastic F2 opening on 6 meters was heard most of the morning of July 14 here in EM73nv. Worked EA7L, F4ARU, EB1A, F4GGQ, and I2PJA on SSB. Signals were strong with QSB.

    Looking forward to more."

    Jon, N0JK, in Lawrence, Kansas, wrote:

    "Another spot for WP4G on 2 meters (maybe Es) July 15, at 2319."

    Dick, KK2KA, reports more 6-meter excitement:

    "The opening on July 14 from 0930 until 1900 UTC here in Massachusetts yielded seven new DXCC entities, including Hawaii. Now 49 of 50 for 6 meters WAS. I worked OD, 9K, YL, 4X, 5B, SV5. Now at 114 worked and 110 confirmed. This opening was the best I have ever seen. EU all day long [and] so many decodes in FT8 you had to scroll. FT8 on 313 and 323. Signals were strong and stable, not much QSB, which made it easier to work. This day goes down in the books as the best ever opening on the Magic Band."

    Rich, K1HTV, reports:

    July 13, 2-meter FT8 operators from the Mid-Atlantic, the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida (and some in the midwest) experienced an extraordinary day.

    As I was driving home from shopping, my son Andy, K1RA, came on the local 2-meter repeater to notify me that stations in the Philly area were working into Puerto Rico on 144.174 FT8. When I arrived home I swung the beam toward the Caribbean and started working 2-meter Es. Here is a partial FT8 log from K1HTV (FM18ap) log for July 13, 2021.




    1518



    NP4B



    FK68lm



    1,534 miles (2,469 km)




    1528



    WP4KJJ



    FK68xf



    1,579 miles (2,541 km)




    1604



    W4AS



    EL95to



    910 miles (1,460 km)




    1606



    ZF1EJ



    EK99jg



    1,349 miles (2,171 km)



     

    I thought that I did well until I started seeing spots from KA9CFD in EN40om working NP4BM in FK68lm, 2,070 miles (3,330 kilometers); WP4KJJ in FK68xf, 2,127 miles (3,423 kilometers); HI3T in FK58ak, 1,961 miles (3,156 kilometers), and HI8DL in FK58al, 1,959 miles (3,153 kilometers). And then I saw Jon's (N0JK) even longer distance DX Cluster spots for WP4KJJ and WP4G. Extraordinary!

    It sure looks like it took two separate, well placed highly ionized patches for this to happen, and a PSK Reporter Es MUF map shows the locations of the two. One was at EM64 and the other patch was at FL06.

    The 2-meter Es opening that I observed from FM18ap in Virginia to Puerto Rico went from 1518 - 1558 UTC and then again, briefly from 1630 - 1633 UTC.

    The opening to W4AS in EL95 at 1605 UTC only lasted 2 minutes and then was gone.

    The opening from FM18ap to ZF1EJ in EK99 started at 1606 UTC and lasted until 1624 UTC.

    So, it was an incredible 144-MHz propagation day here in North America. I called a few CQs on 144.200 SSB but had no luck. All of the activity was on the 144.174 MHz FT8 frequency."

    KA3JAW reports:

    Bryce, K4NBF, in Mashpee, Massachusetts (FN41sp), heard the following stations on Tuesday, July 13:

    1255 UTC       104.3   WZIN "The Buzz" in Charlotte Amalie, Virgin Islands, running 44 kW - 1,641 miles (2,640 kilometers). Single-hop E skip.

    1956 UTC       93.7     HILS-FM "Latidos" in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, running 5 kW - 1,601 miles (2,576 kilometers) Single-hop E skip.

    2034 UTC       95.6     "Radio Uno" in Barranquilla, Colombia, at 2,745 miles (4,417 kilometers), plus another unidentified station on 98.6 in Barranquilla. Double-hop E skip.

    2040 UTC       98.7     WUKQ-FM "La Primera" in Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, running 25 kW - 1810 miles (2912 kilometers). Double-hop E skip."

    HI8T in the Dominican Republic reports:

    "July 13, 6 meters was as crowded as 20 meters. I checked my radio twice to see if it was really on 6 meters. FT8 signals were very loud on 50.313. At around 1650 UTC, I switched to the 2-meter FT8 frequency, 144.174, and worked KA9CFD in Illinois with very good signals. After him, many other stations came in. Later that day in my car, I heard one FM radio station from Alabama and one from Georgia. It seems that Solar Cycle 25 will be full of surprises, and one thing that helps is that with FT8, everybody is captive on the same frequency."

    Finally, I've enjoyed hunting for 10-meter CW propagation beacons from 28.2 - 28.3 MHz, sometimes using remote WebSDR receivers. I put up my own beacon (with tremendous help from Vlodymyr, AA7DJ) last Friday after IARU assigned me a frequency, 28.2833 MHz. K7RA/b is now running about 5 W, 24 x 7 from CN87uq with a half-wave vertical dipole. If you hear it, email me a report or send a QSL card.

    A regularly updated comprehensive 10-meter beacon list is here[2].

    Sunspot numbers for July 8 through 14 were 23, 23, 24, 23, 22, 11, and 23, with a mean of 21.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.4, 73.8, 74, 73.6, 71.6, 72, and 72.1, with a mean of 72.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 6, 4, 7, 5, and 14, with a mean of 6.6. Middle latitude A index was 5, 7, 8, 4, 7, 7, and 10, with a mean of 6.9.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[3] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[4] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[5].

    A propagation bulletin archive[6] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[7] website.

    Instructions[8] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[9] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg
    [2] https://www.qsl.net/wj5o/bcn.htm
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 23 11:29:15 2021
    07/23/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: It's exciting to observe increasing sunspot activity. Recently Solar Cycle 25 produced new sunspots frequently, and I watch them pop up every day on Spaceweather.com[1]. New sunspots emerged on July 14, 16, 17, 19 and 20, and two new ones appeared on July 21. When I look at this image[2] from July 22, our sun is peppered with spots, reminding me of past solar cycles.

    Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled from 21.3 last week to 48.9 during this reporting week, July 15-21. Average daily solar flux jumped from 72.9 to 81.3.

    Geomagnetic numbers held steady, with both the middle latitude and planetary A index averages at 6.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 89 and 87 on July 23 - 24; 85 on July 25 - 30; 90 on July 31 - August 1; 85 on August 2; 75 on August 3 - 12; 78, 80, and 80 on August 13 - 15; 85 on August 16 - 21, and 90 on August 22 - 28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 16, and 8 on July 23 - 25; 5 on July 26 - 27; 8 on July 28; 5 on July 29 - August 1; 8 on August 2; 5 on August 3 - 9; 12 and 10 on August 10 - 11; 5 on August 12 - 16; 8 on August 17 - 18; 5 on August 19 - 28, and 8 on August 29.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for July 23 - August 19, before he takes a week of vacation.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on: July 25, 30, August 7, 12 - 13


    o quiet to unsettled on: July 24, 28 - 29, 31, August 9, 14


    o quiet to active on: July 23, 26, August 1, 3 - 6, 11, 15 - 17, 19


    o unsettled to active: July 27, August 2, 8, 10, 18


    o active to disturbed: None predicted!



    Remarks:

    =Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    =Next Thursday, I will not compile a forecast of Earth's magnetic field activity, because I will be walking on the highest mountains of my country - the Krkonose Mountains - without such conveniences of civilization as computer or internet. But I will have a good friends, camera and binoculars with me!

    OH6BG has some interesting VOACAP links on his QRZ.com profile[3].

    I've been having fun using remote SDR receivers[4] to hunt for 10-meter beacons during the day. This revealed much more sporadic-e propagation than I was previously aware of.

    On Thursday, using the AB9MQ receiver[5] in Normal, Illinois, I copied beacons KE5JXC/b in Kaplan, Louisiana, on 28.2515 MHz; WD8INF/b in Lebanon, Ohio, on 28.2525 MHz, and KC5SQD/b in Missouri City, Texas, on 28.2508 MHz.

    You will notice on the 10-meter beacon roster[6] from WJ5O that the listings resolve to 100 Hz, instead of 1 KHz. This allows more of them to be packed together on the band. The three beacons mentioned here were all copied with the receiver tuned to the same frequency, and because they transmit on slightly different frequencies, they're easy to copy.

    A correction: I mentioned my new CW beacon, K7RA/b on 28.2833 MHz in last week's report. The power output is actually 11 W, as I was reminded by UY5DJ/AA7DJ who generously built the beacon transmitter and controller.

    N8II in West Virginia, wrote:

    "There was much intense sporadic-e, mostly within the US and Canada on July 13-15 with double hop to MT, UT, WA, OR, BC, CA, NV and AZ.

    "Several times the skip zone shortened to stations less than 300 miles away in NC, SC, KY, and OH. I easily made over 100 QSOs. I worked Steve, VE2CSI, in Sept-Iles, Quebec (FO60), a couple of times on 10 meters and once on 6 meters, all SSB.

    "Things were fairly quiet until July 18, when Europe came through well on 10 starting just after 1200 UTC, working 9A2U, Croatia, and Vlada, YU4VLA, Serbia, along with Italy, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Belgium, Scotland, and several German stations until 1319 UTC.

    "Just after 0000 UTC on the July 19, 10 meters came alive with SSB activity from Maine and the US 4th area. I found TI5KMK in Costa Rica, probably via Es, and also Puerto Rico. Suddenly on July 21, Upstate New York and New England stations with big signals appeared, starting 2214 UTC. French stations F6ARC and F4AIF were found around 2240 UTC.

    "July 22 saw one of the best openings of the year to western Europe on 10 meter. I ran quite a few stations on 28.430 MHz SSB after calling EI2IP and EI3GD in Ireland starting at 1941 UTC. Signal levels were very good, and many stations were active. The highlight was being called by SE5S and Hawk, SM5AQD, both in Sweden. SM5AQD was peaking S-9 running 1,500 W to a triple stack of eight-element tri-band Yagis. Soon after, MM0TFU in Scotland called in with a bit better signal. As I recall, he runs 400 W into a three-element Yagi. This was the loudest Ian has been this year after several 10-meter QSOs. Around 0040 UTC, I worked WA2OOO on Long Island, New York, less than 300 miles away, with a strong signal, as well as VO1VXC in Newfoundland."

    Here's the latest video[7] (July 17) from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for July 15 - 21 were 22, 35, 53, 42, 45, 59, and 86, with a mean of 48.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.5, 75, 77.4, 80.4, 82.6, 87, and 93.5, with a mean of 81.3.. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 4, 4, 4, 7, 10, and 6, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 12, 5, 4, 5, 4, 9, and 6, with a mean of 6.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[10].

    A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

    Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[14] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://bit.ly/36TTO5t
    [3] https://www.qrz.com/lookup/oh6bg
    [4] http://kiwisdr.com/public/
    [5] http://ab9mq.hopto.org:8073/
    [6] https://www.qsl.net/wj5o/bcn.htm
    [7] https://youtu.be/PWIb1g-Jy18
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 30 10:45:11 2021
    07/30/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity slowed this week, with the average daily sunspot number declining from 48.9 last week to 33.9 this week (July 22 - 28). Wednesday, July 28, saw no sunspots at all.

    Average daily solar flux went from 81.3 to 83.

    Geomagnetic indicators held steady, with average daily planetary A index at 6.4 both last week and this week. Average daily middle latitude A index went from 6.4 last week to 6.3 this week.

    Predicted solar flux is 76 on July 30 - 31; 74 on August 1; 72 on August 2 - 4; 74 on August 5 - 6; 75 on August 7 - 12; 78, 80, 82, and 85 on August 13 - 16; 90 on August 17 - 18; 85 on August 19 - 20; 80 on August 21; 82 on August 22 - 28; 78 on August 29, and 75 on August 30 - September 8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, and 8 on July 30 - August 1; 5 on August 2 - 9; 12 and 10 on August 10 - 11; 5 on August 12 - 15; 10 and 8 on August 16 - 17; 5 on August 18 - 23; 12, 12, and 8 on August 24 - 26; 5 on August 27 - 28; 8 on August 29, and 5 on August 30 - September 5.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, is on vacation this week, hiking in the mountains of the Czech Republic, so we have forecasts from two of his associates. The first is from Martina Pavelkova, RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Department, Ondrejov, Czech Republic.

    Solar activity forecast for the period July 30 - August 05:


    o Activity level: mostly very low


    o X-ray background flux (1.0 - 8.0 A) in the range A5.5 - B1.5


    o 10.7-centimeter radio flux: Fluctuating in the range 74 - 82


    o Events: Class C (0 - 4/period), Class M (0/period), Class X (0/period), Proton (0/period)


    o Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0 - 55



    Here's a rgeomagnetic activity forecast for July 30 - August 5 from Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov Observatory (BDV).


    o Quiet: Jul 30 - 31, Aug 2 - 4


    o Unsettled: Jul 31, Aug 1 - 3, 5


    o Active: 0


    o Minor storm: 0


    o Major storm: 0


    o Severe storm: 0



    Geomagnetic activity summary: Next week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions. The more unsettled events are possible about August 1 - 2, and also about Thursday, August 5. The other days, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions generally, closer to quiet level.

    Jan, KC0V, in Colorado, wrote to report a big 2-meter opening from DN70 to the midwest on the afternoon of July 24.

    "I was busy with some chores then happened to look at DXMaps and the APRS VHF propagation map and noticed a large Es cloud located over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa and another over southeastern Kansas. I quickly tuned into 2 meters, FT8 144.174. Signals were very strong, with +21 dB the best report I sent and +29 dB the best report I received. My QSOs, beginning at 2216 and ending at 2235 UTC were:




    WA9DU



    EM69




    WB8ART



    EM79




    AA9JS



    EN51




    KC9IKB



    EM69




    KA9CFD



    EN40




    WA4CQG



    EM72




    KX9X



    EN50




    NY1V



    EM69




    KM8V



    EN91




    K2DRH



    EN41




    AG4V



    EM55




    KO9A



    EN52




    WB8JCW



    EN80



    "Then followed 26 minutes of a mixture of single decodes, total quiet, meteor bursts, but no QSOs. Then at 2301 UTC, K9YK in EN60. And then it was over. I don't know when the opening began since it was well in progress when I got to the radio, but it was an amazing 20 minutes or so.

    "Unfortunately, I was unable to complete [a contact] with W3IP in FM19, which would have been the longest-distance QSO of the opening for me. We heard each other over several sequences but were unable to finish the exchange.

    "My station: Kenwood TS-2000, Beko HLV-1000 running at 750 W, 10-element LFA (by G0KSC) at 35 feet."

    Sunspot numbers for July 22 - 28, 2021 were 77, 46, 35, 24, 25, 25, and 0, with a mean of 33.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 89, 87.4 83.9, 81.6, 80.8, 79.6, and 78.8, with a mean of 83. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 4, 4, 3, 4, 6, and 13, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 9, 3, 5, 5, 3, 6, and 13, with a mean of 6.3.

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 6 13:01:56 2021
    08/06/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity took a deep dive during the July 29 - August 4 reporting week. Sunspots were gone July 28 - August 1, so the average daily sunspot number dropped from 33.1 last week to 6 this week. Average daily solar flux slipped from 83 to 74.8.

    Predicted solar flux is 74 and 73 on August 6 - 7; 75 on August 8 - 10; 74 on August 11 - 12; 75 on August 3 - 14; 76 on August 15 - 16; 75 and 74 on August 17 - 18; 72 on August 19 - 31; 74 on September 1, and 75 on September 2 - 10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8, and 8 on August 6 - 8; 5, 10, and 8 on August 9 - 11; 5 on August 12 - 15; 10, 8, and 8 on August 16 - 18; 5 on August 19 - 22; 8, 12, and 8 on August 23 - 25; 5 on August 26 - 31; 12 and 10 on September 1 - 2, and 5 on September 3 - 11.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for August 6 - 31 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on August 12 - 13, 20 - 21, 23, 28


    o quiet to unsettled on August 7 - 9, 14, 19, 22, 25 - 27, 31


    o quiet to active on August 6, 11, 15 - 18, 29 - 30


    o unsettled to active August 10, 24


    o active to disturbed: Nothing predicted



    I (K7RA) spent 8 days in the hospital for neurosurgery last week, so I brought my laptop along and was able to compile this week's report, thanks to help from many readers.

    One thing I did every day to keep myself busy and make propagation observations was to use free public receivers on the internet via resources such as http://kiwisdr.com/public/[1] to search for 10-meter propagation beacons. Then, I would document and send signal reports to the beacon operators. In July, I put up an IARU-coordinated CW beacon, K7RA/b on 28.2833 MHz, and enjoy receiving reports from listeners.

    Jon Jones, N0JK, writes:

    "There was a 2-meter sporadic-E opening on August 4. Ron, WZ1V (FN31) reported to me that he worked KA9CFD (EN40), K0TPP (EM48), and W5LDA (EM15) at around 2225 UTC on FT8 via Es. He said KA9CFD was loud. 2-meter Es is very rare in August.

    "The last week of July there was a strong tropospheric opening on 2 meters from northeast Kansas. I worked as far as KE8FD (EN80) and W3CP (EM74) on FT8. I had a PSK flag on 2 meters from W3IP (FM19), more than 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) away.

    "The Perseids meteor shower[2] is building in intensity with people now making morning MSK144 contacts on 2 meters. The peak is the night of August 11 and the morning of August 12."

    Ken Brown, N4SO, on Alabama's Gulf Coast reports:

    "On July 30, the Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN[3]) was 0, and July 31, and I was still able to log VE3TEN, KA3JOE and W2DLL - Ontario, Pennsylvania, and New York, nearly a straight line to the northeast.

    "On July 31, I was still able to log K6FRC/b at 1454 UTC. Weak but readable (339).

    "On August 1, at 0400 UTC, 11 PM local, I had a long list starting with N9TNY, W8EH, WA2SFT, WI4L, and K4JEE, in EN51, EM79, EM76, EM74, and EM78, respectively. Straight line north and northeast."

    From multiple sources, I received a news release from the High Altitude Observatory in Colorado regarding the revision of their Solar Cycle 25 predictions. The parts about radio propagation and the progression of Solar Cycle 24 are mine.

    News Release: A revised prediction from the NASA High Altitude Observatory based at the University of Colorado. NASA heliophysicists have released a revised prediction for Solar Cycle 25. The report generated by Ricky Egeland, a solar physicist working in the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group, now calls for the peak of Solar Cycle 25 to top out at a value of 195 ±17 based upon the new scale for calculating smoothed sunspot number (SSN). For reference Solar Cycle 21 peaked at an SSN of 233 (new scale) while Solar Cycle 23 peaked at an SSN of 180 (new scale).

    If this prediction holds up ham radio will see excellent world-wide F-layer conditions on 10 meters for several years around the time of the solar maximum. Conditions on 6 meters should be good in the equinox periods before and after solar max with consistent openings on medium haul polar routes. Six-meter routes traversing the equator should experience consistent openings ±9 months from solar max.

    Ricky Egeland is a participating member in the group headed up by Scott McIntosh and Bob Leamon that published a paper 9 months ago outlining the existence of magnetic bands within the sun that govern the sunspot and Hale cycles. At the time of its publishing, the paper went on to predict the peak of Solar Cycle 25 could be as high as Solar Cycle 21. Today's release is a revised prediction based upon data observed since the original paper was published. To be sure we are still in early days. The solar rotation cycle, as marked by sunspot activity, was established on April 19, 2021, so we are only 90 days into actually observing Solar Cycle 25 activity. It is now agreed that the dramatic run-up in sunspot activity we experienced late last fall, while tied to Solar Cycle 25, was an outlier.

    When asked directly about whether they can declare if the terminator event they wrote about in the fall 2020 paper has occurred, Scott McIntosh stated, "We can't be sure just yet but we are very, very close."

    It also should be noted that while it has been over a year since the sun produced a Solar Cycle 24 region with a sunspot worthy of a NASA classification, the sun has been steadily producing spotless Solar Cycle 24 active regions, the last of which formed right on the solar equator at N00/W54 on July 24, 2021, as recorded by Jan Alvestad's Solar Terrestrial Activity Report website. These active regions, being part of a Solar Cycle in its final stages of existence, produce no spots and only last for a few hours before they dissipate. The previous Solar Cycle 24 active region formed on June 28, 2021. Once the Solar Cycle 24 active regions cease altogether, Solar Cycle 25 will take off in earnest. - with thanks to Bob Marston, AA6XE

    K7TLM reminds us that the United States Postal Service currently offers first-class stamps with wonderful solar images in a Sun Science series[4].

    Sunspot numbers for July 29 - August 4 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 13, 15, and 14, with a mean of 6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 75.8, 75.5, 75.9, 74.9, 74.6, 75.9, and 70.8, with a mean of 74.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 6, 6, 4, 17, 10, and 5, with a mean of 8. Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 6, 4, 13, 15, and 5, with a mean of 8.7.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[7].

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://kiwisdr.com/public/
    [2] https://www.imo.net/viewing-the-perseid-meteor-shower-in-2021/
    [3] https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot
    [4] https://store.usps.com/store/product/buy-stamps/sun-science-S_480804
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 13 14:19:15 2021
    08/13/2021

     

    The K7RA Solar Update

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity continues to be very weak, and the latest 45-day outlook seems to indicate more of the same ahead. Sunspots only appeared on 3 out of the 7 days in the August 5 - 11 reporting week, and these days were not consecutive.

    Average daily sunspot numbers actually rose a little, from 6 to 9.9. Average daily solar flux softened from 74.8 to 73.7. Average daily planetary A index went from 8 to 6.3, while middle latitude averages were 7, down from 8.7 last week.

    Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks shows a predicted maximum of only 75 on just one day, September 11. The solar flux forecast from USAF and NOAA shows 73 on August 13-14; 72 on August 15-19; 73 on August 20; 74 on August 21 - September 1; 73, 72, 72, 74, and 74 on September 2-6; 73 on September 7-10; 75 on September 11; 72 on September 12-15; 73 on September 16, and 74 on September 17 and beyond.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 13-15; 5 on August 16-22; 8 on August 15-16; 5 on August 17-22; 8, 12, and 8 on August 23-25; 5 on August 26 - September 1; 8 and 12 on September 2-3; 8 on September 4-6; 5 on September 7-11; 12, 10, and 10 on September 12-14, and 5 on September 15-18.

    Strangely, the planetary A index for September 5 is listed as 58, which I was certain was an error. I wrote to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov[1] and received no reply as yet.  This outlier value was repeated in Thursday's forecast. Wednesday's prediction was done by forecasters Stover and Houseal, and Thursday's was from Trost and Houseal. I have not checked earlier forecasts to see when this value first showed up. New forecasts[2] appear daily on the SWPC website.

    OK1HH is away for another week, so two of his colleagues - Martina Pavelkova[3] of RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Department, Ondrejov, Czech Republic, and Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov Observatory - are sitting in to present the geomagnetic activity forecast for August 13 - 19.


    o Activity level: mostly very low


    o X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A3.5-A7.0


    o Radio flux (10.7 centimeters): a fluctuation in the range 70-75


    o Events: class C (0-2/period), class M (0/period), class X (0/period),


    o proton (0/period)


    o Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-55



    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 13-August 19, 2021:


    o Quiet: Aug 13-16, 19


    o Unsettled: Aug 16-18


    o Active: possible Aug 16-17


    o Minor storm: 0


    o Major storm: 0


    o Severe storm: 0



    Geomagnetic activity summary: Next week, we expect quiet-to-unsettled conditions generally. Until Sunday, August 15, we expect the quiet-to-unsettled level closer to the lower end of the scale.

    After Monday, August 16, more unsettled conditions are possible. Between August 16 and August 18, more unsettled conditions are probable. Within this interval, an isolated active event is also possible.

    I spotted an interesting item[4] on Southgate Amateur Radio News.

    Sunspot numbers for August 5 - 11 were 36, 0, 0, 11, 0, 0, and 22, with a mean of 9.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 74.3, 74.4, 73.7, 73.5, 73, 73.3, and 73.8, with a mean of 73.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 7, 11, 5, 5, 7, and 6, with a mean of 6.3. Middle latitude A index was 3, 9, 9, 6, 6, 9, and 7, with a mean of 7.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[7].

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

     

    Share[11] your reports and observations.


    [1] mailto:SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
    [3] mailto:sunwatch@asu.cas.cz
    [4] https://bit.ly/3sd5LNr
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 20 11:41:53 2021
    08/20/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Weak solar activity persists, but Friday, August 13, was the sole spotless day in the current August 12-18 reporting week. Last week we reported 4 days with no sunspots in the previous 7 days. Average daily sunspot number increased from 9.9 last week to 17.7 during this week. Solar flux was the same, with the average inching from 73.7 to 73.8.

    Geomagnetic indicators were also stable. Average planetary A index was 6.1, compared to 6.3 last week. Average middle latitude A index moved from 7.6 to 7.

    Predicted solar flux is 75 on August 20; 73 on August 21 - 23; 72 on August 24 - 26; 73 on August 27 - 29; 74 on August 30 - September 1; 73 on September 2 - 11; 74 on September 12; 73 on September 13 - 17; 72 on September 18, and 73 on September 19 - 25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 20; then 8, 8, 10, 14, 12, and 8 on August 21 - 26; 5 on August 27 - September 1; 8 and 12 on September 2 - 3; 5 on September 4 - 10; 8 on September 11 - 13; 5 on September 14 - 18; 8, 12, and 8 on September 19 - 21, and 5 on September 22 - 28.

    On August 14 Spaceweather.com[1] reported that there were no sunspots, and that so far in 2021 there have been 56 days with no spots. "That might sound like a lot, but it is in fact a sharp reduction from hundreds of spotless days observed in 2019 and 2020," Spaceweather.com observed. "Despite today's blank sun, solar activity is intensifying compared to previous years."

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for August 20 - September 14 from J.K. Janda, OK1HH. He reports that the geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on August 20 - 21, 28, September 1, 5, 10, 14


    o quiet to unsettled on August 22, 25 - 27, 31, September 2, 4, 6 - 9


    o quiet to active on August 30, September 3, (11 - 13)


    o unsettled to active August (23 - 24, 29)


    o active to disturbed: Nothing predicted



    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - The predictability of changes is very low because there are not enough indications.

    Ken Brown, N4SO, reported hearing a new 10-meter beacon, N5TIT/b on 28.209 MHz. Signal was weak, and the path was 520 miles.

    I've noted that the relatively low solar activity has depressed 10-meter signals, and my practice of using remote SDR receivers to hunt for beacons turns up little activity lately.

    At the end of July, I spent 8 days in hospital for neurosurgery and managed to use kiwisdr.com/public/[2] to hunt for 10-meter beacons. I used the list at https://www.qsl.net/wj5o/bcn.htm[3] to help identify them, and sent reports to the beacon owners.

    Here's the latest[4] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

    Sunspot numbers for August 12 - 18 were 11, 0, 47, 23, 14, 13, and 16, with a mean of 17.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.6, 72.9, 72.6, 74.6, 74.4, 73.1, and 75.3, with a mean of 73.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 5, 10, 7, 5, and 6, with a mean of 6.1 Middle latitude A index was 6, 9, 4, 13, 8, 7, and 6, with a mean of 7.6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[7].

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] http://kiwisdr.com/public/
    [3] https://www.qsl.net/wj5o/bcn.htm
    [4] https://youtu.be/GdI-itUhKec
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 27 13:01:38 2021
    08/27/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sun watchers saw no spotless days this week. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 17.7 last week to 21.7 for the August 19 - 25 reporting week. Average daily solar flux increased from 73.8 to 78.5.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A index declining from 6.1 to 4.7, and average daily middle latitude A index dropping from 7.6 to 5.7.

    We are less than one month away from the autumnal equinox in the Northern Hemisphere on Wednesday, September 22. On that day, both hemispheres will be bathed in equal measures of solar radiation, always a positive for HF propagation.

    Predicted solar flux is 90 on August 27 - September 2; 85 on September 3; 73 on September 4 - 11; 74 on September 12 - 15; 76 on September 16 - 18; 77 on September 19 - 20; 76 on September 21; 75 on September 22 - 29, and 73 on September 30 - October 8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 16, 12, 10, and 8 on August 27 - 30; 5 on August 31 - September 1; 8 and 12 on September 2 - 3; 5 on September 4 - 10; 10 and 8 on September 11 - 12; 5 on September 13 - 18; 8 on September 19 - 20; 15 and 10 on September 21 - 22; 7 on September 23 - 24; 5 on September 25 - 28; 8 and 12 on September 29 - 30, and 5 through the first week in October.

    I find it encouraging that the above solar flux forecast from USAF and NOAA was revised upward over the past few days and that the sunspot number (47) on Thursday, August 26, was much higher than the average daily sunspot number (21.7) over the previous 7 days.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for August 27 - September 21, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on September 1, 5, 10, 14 - 18


    o quiet to unsettled on August 28, 31, September 2 - 4, 6 - 9, 19 - 20


    o quiet to active on August 29 - 30, September 11 - 13, 21


    o unsettled to active August (27)


    o active to disturbed, nothing predicted



    Remarks: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    At 0839 UTC on August 26, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning.

    "A weak, slow-moving CME [coronal mass ejection] associated with a disappearing solar filament on 23 August may have a glancing impact at Earth late on the UT day of 26 or into 27 August. Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity may occur following the impact. Another weak, slow-moving CME observed occurring toward the middle of the UT day on 24 August appears to be primarily eastward, although there is a chance it may also have a glancing impact at Earth during 27 August, potentially resulting in mildly elevated geomagnetic activity."

    Darrell Emerson, AA7FV wrote:

    "I have a question about a possible 17-meter propagation anomaly between my location (AA7FV in Tucson, DM42pg, 32.3° N, 110.7° W) and the NCDXF beacon W6WX (CM97ae). According to QRZ.com[1], W6WX is at a bearing of 301° and 1,158 kilometers from AA7FV. Sunset at W6WX is 0249 UTC, and sunset at AA7FV is 0158 UTC.

    "I have been using the program Faros to look at the propagation times from various NCDXF beacons. As you know, the NCDXF beacons are time-synchronized using GPS, and so by looking at the arrival times of transmissions from a given beacon, it is easily possible to distinguish between short-path and long-path propagation. This is what the program Faros does.

    "As a check, here is data taken at the same time with the same setup on the beacon ZL6B, which shows no anomaly. You can see that I was receiving the beacon from about 0000 UTC until about 0430 UTC. The propagation delays line up precisely with the delay (about 39 ms) expected for short-path propagation. The expected long-path delay would be nearly 100 ms, but no signals are observed with that delay during this time period."

    [Darrell sent graphics that I am unable to reproduce here, but you could email him via his address on QRZ.com, if you want a copy.]

    I referred his question to Carl, K9LA, who responded:

    "ZL6B sunrise is around 1906 UTC, so I would have expected that you'd see him again later in the day (a bit after 1906 UTC). But perhaps the MUF wasn't high enough at that time. Or something else was going on. Dropping out around 0430 UTC is understandable, as your sunset is around 0200 UTC and the MUF was slowly dropping until ZL6B (still in daylight) went away around 0430 UTC.

    "As for the W6WX results, being only 1,158 kilometers from you says a relatively high elevation angle would be required on the true great circle path. And that says the MUF over that path would not likely be high enough for normal refraction at a high elevation angle on 18 MHz (since we're just starting to come out of solar minimum). So, your comment about an unusual ionized cloud (or an enhanced area in the ionosphere) is a possible explanation.

    "The 20 ms or so delay suggests an off-great circle path from an enhanced area of ionization. And my guess is that this area was south of you and W6WX as that puts it closer to the equatorial ionosphere, where more interesting short-term events happen than north of your location. It's too bad that the azimuth arrival angle isn't measured.

    "If you're interested in some more Faros results, check out these documents: https://k9la.us/Aug17_Long_Path-Short_Path_Switching_on_15-Meters_Part_1.pdf[2] and https://k9la.us/Sep17_Long_Path-Short_Path_Switching_on_15-Meters_Part_2.pd f[3]."

    By the way, Carl says he accidentally deleted an email from someone named Edgar in Toronto who had questions about VOACAP, and now he has no way to respond. If you are Edgar, please contact K9LA.

    Ken Brown, N4SO (EM50tk), in Alabama reported hearing the XE1FAS/b beacon on 28.171 MHz at 0542 UTC (12:42 AM local time) on August 26. "Just above the noise and then faded out," he said. The path distance was 1,001 miles.

    K6HPX has some fascinating antenna photos on his QRZ.com profile[4].

    Here's the latest video[5] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman. You can always find her new videos here[6].

    Sunspot numbers for August 19 - 25 were 25, 14, 25, 16, 14, 29, and 29, with a mean of 21.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 74.9, 77.7, 77.1, 77.1, 78.1, 80.9, and 83.6, with a mean of 78.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 3, 4, 5, and 9, with a mean of 4.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 6, 4, 4, 8, 5, and 8, with a mean of 5.7.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out the propagation page of Carl, K9LA[9].

    A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[11] website.

    Instructions[12] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[13] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.qrz.com/
    [2] https://k9la.us/Aug17_Long_Path-Short_Path_Switching_on_15-Meters_Part_1.pdf
    [3] https://k9la.us/Sep17_Long_Path-Short_Path_Switching_on_15-Meters_Part_2.pdf
    [4] https://www.qrz.com/lookup/k6hpx
    [5] https://youtu.be/jJgxa0SMojE
    [6] https://www.spaceweatherwoman.com/forecasts
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 3 13:18:34 2021
    09/03/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity is on the upswing this week. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 21.7 to 50.6, with a high of 77 last Saturday, September 28. Average daily solar flux rose from 78.5 to 88.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.7 to 9.6, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 5.7 to 10.7. Geomagnetic activity peaked August 27 - 28 due to a coronal mass ejection.

    New sunspot regions appeared on August 26 and 27, and on September 2 Spaceweather.com[1] reported, "New Sunspot, Rapidly Growing" to announce the emergence of AR2863.

    Predicted solar flux looks promising, particularly after mid - September, at 85 and 82 on September 3 - 4; 80 on September 5 - 6; 78 on September 7; 75 on September 8 - 10; 80 on September 11 - 14; 85 on September 15; 90 on September 16 - 30; 85 on October 1, and 80 on October 2 - 10. Flux values rise to 90 again after October 12 in this forecast from September 2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10, and 8 on September 3 - 6; 5 on September 7 - 10; 10 and 8 on September 11 - 12; 5 on September 13 - 20; 8 on September 21; 5 on September 22 - 25; then a big jump to 25, 8, 18, 8, and 12 on September 26 - 30, back to 5 on October 1 - 7, and then 10 and 8 on October 8 - 9.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for September 3 - 29, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on September 7 - 8, 10, 14 - 15, 17 - 18, 28 - 29
    o quiet to unsettled on September 4 - 5, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 27
    o quiet to active on September 3, 6, 9, 11 - 12, 20 - 21, 26
    o unsettled to active on September 23 ( - 24)
    o active to disturbed - nothing predicted

    Remarks:

    * Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    * The situation is confusing, the configuration of active regions and coronal holes is variable, so it's not possible to make a reasonably reliable forecast. This occasionally happens before solar activity rises.

    The autumnal equinox will be on Wednesday, September 22, in the Northern Hemisphere, always a welcome event for HF propagation. Solar flux is forecast to be higher at that time, also a good sign.

    Sunspot numbers for August 26 - September 1, 2021 were 47, 73, 77, 44, 41, 37, and 35, with a mean of 50.6. The 10.7 centimeter flux was 88.6, 89.5, 89.9, 88.7, 90.6, 84.4, and 84.2, with a mean of 88. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 14, 8, 7, 7, and 5, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 19, 17, 9, 9, 9, and 6, with a mean of 10.7.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[4].

    A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

    Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[8] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 10 12:37:40 2021
    09/10/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity increased dramatically this week.

    Over the course of the reporting week, sunspot numbers peaked at 87 on Wednesday, September 8; the day before, solar flux peaked at 101.2.

    The average daily sunspot numbers rose by 14, to 64.6, while the average daily solar flux increased from 88 to 92.9. New sunspots appeared on September 2 and September 3, and three more new sunspot groups arrived on September 4. Another new one appeared on September 8, and on that day the total sunspot area was 1,000 micro-hemispheres.

    On September 9, I was shocked to see the daily sunspot number at 124 and the total sunspot area hit 1,030 micro-hemispheres. I don't believe we've seen activity like this in nearly 6 years, when the daily sunspot number hit 125 on September 29, 2015.

    We saw similar large total sunspot area numbers last November 25 - 26 - 1,180 and 1,020 micro-hemispheres. Sunspot numbers were 40 and 43 on those days, but a few days later on November 29 the sunspot number shot to 84.

    Both the daily planetary and middle latitude A index reached highs of 14 on September 8. The averages were 7 and 7.7, down from 9.6 and 10.7 in last week's planetary and middle latitude readings.

    Predicted solar flux seems quite promising, at 100 on September 10 - 11; 98 on September 12 - 13; 95 on September 14 - 17; 85 on September 18; 88 on September 19 - 23; 90 on September 24 - 28; 88 on September 29 - October 1; 86 on October 2; 90 on October 3 - 6; 92 and 90 on October 7 - 8, and 85 on October 9 - 15. Flux values are expected to rise to 90 again after October 20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, and 8 on September 10 - 12; 5 on September 13 - 20; 8 on September 21; 5 on September 22 - October 1; 8 again on October 2 - 3, and 5 on October 4 - 17.

    On Sunday September 5, Spaceweather.com[1] reported, "For most of the past 3 years, the sun has been absolutely blank. Today the sun has six sunspot groups. They're popping up all over the solar disk.

    "The sudden profusion of so many sunspots is a sign of strength for young Solar Cycle 25. The solar cycle is actually running ahead of schedule. NOAA and NASA predicted that it will peak in the year 2025. Outbreaks like this one support the idea that solar max could come a year early."

    On September 8, Spaceweather.com[2] reported a shortwave blackout over the Pacific Rim caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME) on September 8 at 1736 UTC.

    Here's the most recent forecast[3] from the Space Weather Woman, Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, although by now it is a bit out of date.

    This is an interesting article[4] about recent solar activity, but it is plagued with many popups.

    Recently in this bulletin we mentioned the US Postal Service issuing stamps with solar images. This article[5] from June which gives much more detail on the creation of the stamps.

    Sunspot numbers for September 2 - 8 were 33, 33, 68, 66, 80, 85, and 87, with a mean of 64.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 85.8, 83.8, 86.5, 93.3, 99.5, 101.2, and 100.4, with a mean of 92.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 5, 6, 6, 8, and 14, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 6, 5, 8, 8, 10, and 14, with a mean of 7.7.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[8].

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://youtu.be/EndF67TGlnY
    [4] https://bit.ly/396UGFf
    [5] https://bit.ly/3yRtlkx
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 17 13:55:10 2021
    09/17/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot numbers started strong at 124 this reporting week, September 9-15, but ended at zero. Average daily sunspot numbers went from 64.6 to 58.3. Average daily solar flux declined from 92.9 to 87.4.

    Geomagnetic indicators remained moderate, with last week's average daily planetary A index unchanged at 7, and average daily middle latitude A index changed from 7.7 to 6.9.

    Predicted solar flux is much lower than last week's bulletin reported. Solar flux is predicted at 75 on September 17 - 23; 76 on September 24 - 26; 78, 80, and 82 on September 27 - 29; 86 on September 30 - October 10; 82 on October 11 - 12; 80 on October 13; 78 on October 14 - 17; and 76 on October 18 - 23. Solar flux is expected to rise to 89 by the end of October.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15 on September 17 - 18; 8 on September 19 - 20; 5 and 8 on September 21 - 22; 5 on September 23 - October 3; 8 and 12 on October 4 - 5; 5 on October 6 - 17; 8 on October 18, and 5 on October 19 through the end of the month.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for September 17 - October 12 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on September 19, 29 - 30, October 9 - 10


    o quiet to unsettled on September 20, 28, October 1, 4, 7, 12


    o quiet to active on September 17 - 18, 22 - 23, 25 - 27, October 3, 8, 11


    o unsettled to active on September 21, 24, October (2,) 5 - 6


    o Active to disturbed Nothing predicted


    o Solar wind will intensify on October 11.



    Remarks:

    - Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - The confusing situation mentioned 2 weeks ago together with the variable configuration of active areas and coronal holes was a sign of the subsequent increase in solar activity.

    Marty, KB0QZ, in Tulsa was tuning 10 meters at noon on Sunday, September 12 and heard no signals, not even any propagation beacons. He called CQ on 28.040 MHz CW and received a 599 report from LU4HK, who was also S9. The path distance was 5,094 miles. He continued to tune the band and call CQ through the afternoon with nothing else heard.

    Page down in this article[1], "Nevada County Captures: Glorious sunrise" and page down for a great solar image in a local California newspaper.

    Go to your favorite search engine and enter: mdpi: sunspot number and photon flux data. An interesting PDF will download.

    At 2000 UTC on September 13 I (K7RA) called CQ on 15 meters on FT8 from my station in Seattle at CN87uq using a marginal end-fed wire antenna about 0.72 wavelength long, partially indoors. Typically I would see the map at pskreporter.info light up with many stations reporting my signal. But at that time only one station, WA1SXK in North Carolina (EM95lf) heard me, reporting -19 dB, and this continued through many attempts.

    I switched to 17 meters and saw typical reports from stations in the midwest and east coast, 1500 - 2400 miles out.

    I checked for flare activity and anything else unusual, but saw nothing. But solar flux and sunspot numbers were declining, after reaching a high several days earlier. Perhaps the MUF for this path at that time was below 15 meters.

    Sunspot numbers for September 9 - 15 were 124, 99, 93, 47, 32, 13, and 0, with a mean of 58.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 99.7, 96.3, 91.8, 87.7, 83.3, 78.1, and 75.2, with a mean of 87.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 7, 6, 9, 6, and 6, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 9, 8, 6, 7, 5, and 6, with a mean of 6.9.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[4].

    A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

    Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[8] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3Ch98XD
    [2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [4] http://k9la.us/
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 24 11:12:01 2021
    09/24/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Last week, we reported a big increase in activity with the daily sunspot number reaching 124, but by the end of that week all sunspots had disappeared. The sun was blank for several days, but sunspots returned on September 19.

    Average daily sunspot numbers this week were 28.7, which was below the 58.3 average reported a week earlier. Average daily solar flux was down by nine points from 87.4 to 78.4.

    Geomagnetic indicators were higher, with the highest activity on September 17, when the planetary A index was 24 due to a minor geomagnetic storm triggered by a weak coronal mass ejection. The average daily planetary A index for the week increased from 7 to 9.1, and the average middle latitude A index went from 6.9 to 8.4.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month is 90 and 92 on September 24-25; 95 on September 26-29; 92 on September 30; 84 on October 1-5; 82 on October 6; 80 on October 7-8; 78 on October 9-11; 75 on October 12-20; 80 on October 21-22; 82 on October 23-25; 84 and 82 on October 26-27, and 84 on October 28 - November 1.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 8, and 20 on September 24-26; 35, 20, and 12 on September 27-29; 5 on September 30 - October 3; 8 and 12 on October 4-5; 5 on October 6-9; 12 on October 10; 5 on October 11-17; 8 on October 18-19; 10, 8, and 12 on October 20-22; 10 on October 23-24; 5 on October 25-30, and 8 and 12 on October 31 - November 1.

    The autumnal equinox in the Northern Hemisphere occurred at 1920 UTC on September 22. Earth is bathed in approximately equal amounts of solar radiation over the Northern and Southern hemispheres, always a good sign for HF propagation.

    Spaceweather.com[1] reported on September 23 that at 0442 UTC, sunspot group AR2871 produced a strong M3 class solar flare. A coronal mass ejection is headed our way but not directly toward earth. "A glancing blow might be possible on September 26-27," Spaceweather.com said. If so, then the predicted planetary A index of 35 on September 27 may turn out to be a lower number.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for September 24 - October 19 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on September 29, October 13, 16 - 18


    o quiet to unsettled on September 24, 27 - 28, October 1, 3 - 4, 7, 9, 12


    o quiet to active on September 25 ( - 26), 30, October 2, 8, 10 - 11


    o unsettled to active on October 5 ( - 6), 14 - 15, (19)


    o Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted


    o Solar wind will intensify on October (3, 8,) 11, (19)



    Remarks:

    * Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    * Contradictory indications currently reduce the accuracy of the forecast.

    N8II sent this update last week from West Virginia: "During the period when the SFI (10.7-cm Solar Flux Index) was near or over 100, conditions to Europe were somewhat disappointing on 15 - most of the time, a short opening of about an hour at 1400 UTC. September 16-17, the SFI was only 73, but there is now a minor to moderate solar storm in progress at 2400 UTC.

    "As the storm was beginning, there was definitely enhanced high-band propagation to the higher latitudes. Around 1400 UTC, I easily worked 4S7AB, Sri Lanka on 15 CW, who was peaking S7, my first QSO with central Asia on 15 in a long time. Also, I worked OH0V, Aaland Islands around 1500 UTC, who was about S5. Geoff, GM8OFQ, in the Orkney Islands, north of Scotland (mainland) was easily 20 dB over S-9 on 17-meters SSB at about 1500 UTC on my dipole. I also worked HB0/DL5YM and YL on 15 CW peaking S-9. 7V7V portable on the beach in Algeria called about S-5. By 1600 UTC band conditions had drastically declined, but EU signals were very loud again on 20 at around 2000 UTC, including OH0V on CW at about 20 dB over S-9."

    N0JK wrote on September 17: "In your last propagation report, you mentioned KB0QZ working LU4HK on 10 CW. I think I know what was up. I neglected to send a report of the September VHF contest conditions. Sunday afternoon, September 12, there were reports of sporadic-E on 6 meters. I worked WA8QYJ (EL96) on 50.313 MHz FT8 at 2109 UTC on Es. KF0M (EM17) and WQ0P (EM19) also worked Florida stations on 6-meter Es at that time. I think it is plausible KB0QZ had a sporadic-E link to afternoon TEP on 10 meters. I also saw WW1L (FN54) spotted HC2FG at 2115 on 50.313 MHz. I suspect double-hop Es. There was single-hop 6-meter Es from the Gulf Coast to HC2FG."

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has released a new forecast[2].

    Sunspot numbers for September 16 - 22 were 0, 0, 11, 13, 51, 50, and 76, with a mean of 28.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.2, 73.4, 73.7, 75, 80, 84.9, and 88.5, with a mean of 78.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 24, 11, 3, 3, 8, and 12, with a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 3, 19, 14, 2, 4, 6, and 11, with a mean of 8.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[3] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[4] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[5].

    A propagation bulletin archive[6] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[7] website.

    Instructions[8] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[9] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://youtu.be/t0FLJLeXw6Y
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 1 13:30:36 2021
    10/01/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity was up over the past week, with the average daily sunspot number rising from 28.7 to 59.4, and average daily solar flux up 11.4 points to 89.8. Nice to see our sun peppered with spots again as we move into the second week of fall in the Northern Hemisphere.

    The 10.7-centimeter solar flux was 101.6 at noon on Wednesday, September 29. That's the highest value since December 3, 2020, when it was 102.9. Unfortunately the following day that value slipped 7 whole points back to 94.6

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A index values declining from 9.1 to 7.3, and average middle latitude A index from 8.4 to 6.3.

    Predicted solar flux as of Thursday is much lower than it was the day before.

    The updated flux values are 95 on October 1 - 3; 90 on October 4 - 5; 85 on October 6 - 7; 74 on October 8 - 9; 78 on October 10 - 12; 80 non October 13; 84 on October 14 - 15; 86 on October 16 - 17; 88 on October 18 - 22; 86 on October 23 - 25, 84 on October 26; 80 on October 27 - 29; 78 on October 30 - 31; 76 on November 1, and 74 on November 2 - 5. Flux values may rise back to 88 by mid - November.

    Predicted planetary A index is 24, 10, and 8 on October 1 - 3; 5 on October 4 - 9; 12 on October 10; 5 again on October 11 - 17; 10, 12, 10, and 8 on October 18 - 21; 5 on October 22 - 23; 18, 15, and 12 on October 24 - 26; 5 on October 27 - 30; 8 on October 31; 12 on November 1; 5 on November 2 - 5, and 12 on November 6.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for October 1 - 26, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on October 13, 16 - 18, 22 - 23


    o quiet to unsettled on October 3 - 4, 6 - 9, 12, 20 - 21


    o quiet to active on October 2, 5, 10 -  11, 14 - 15


    o unsettled to active on October 1, (19, 24 - 26)


    o Active to disturbed - nothing predicted


    o Solar wind will intensify on October (3,) 11, (19, 22-23, 25)



    Remarks:

    * Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    * Contradictory indications currently reduce the accuracy of the forecast.

    I often use FT8 and pskreporter.info[1] to check propagation on different bands, and over the past week there were days when I saw no reception reports of my station on 10 meters, but plenty of activity on 12 meters. The 12-meter openings were typically to stations 2,000 miles east of me over a narrow swath along the eastern seaboard of North America. This was with a very simple end-fed, non-resonant wire antenna and 30 W.

    Check this link[2] about Sunspot, New Mexico.

    Bob, AA6XE, wrote:

    "September 2021 is winding down, and here is a preview of the solar numbers we can expect this Friday. The solar flux for September looks to be 86.5 measured and 88 adjusted for 1 AU. This is the second-highest reading of the new solar cycle, topped only by the dramatic run-up of last November. Take a good long last look at those numbers, as the current ramp-up in solar activity will easily blast through them in October. In the closing 36 hours of the month the 10.7-centimeter [solar flux] had jumped up 12 points to 101 and was rising fast as this reported was being prepared.

    "The monthly mean sunspot number for September will be in the low to mid 50s (new scale); when converted to the old scale so we can compare it to traditional counts it equates to (38 old scale). The smoothed sunspot number (SSN) for September is 46 (new scale) 32 (old scale). September's sunspot numbers are easily the highest of the new solar cycle thus far.

    "And the good news doesn't stop there. On September 14, Scott MacIntosh from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, announced that he expects the termination event concluding Cycle 24 is imminent and a rapid run-up in solar activity to commence in mid-November. Solar minimum was recorded in November 2019, the last SWPC numbered SC24 sunspot was observed in July 2020, the last un-numbered SC24 active region was observed on August 14, 2021. It appears that Cycle 24 is over."

    Here[3]'s more sunspot coverage from local newspapers. And this[4].

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI, of Dixon, California, who operates from his kayak, sent this on September 27:

    "You're probably getting reports of a great opening to Europe Sunday, but here's my story:

    "I was operating from my kayak with 10 W and a small homebrew loop on Sunday around noon when I allowed the wind to orient the boat and the antenna in the direction it chose. That was toward the northeast from California - fortunate because Europe was coming in gangbusters. Operating SSB, I first contacted IK7YTT in Italy on 17, followed by Spain and Hungary on 20. They all had a little trouble making out my call sign, but make it out they did. My location was Lake Berryessa in Napa County, California.

    "This opening certainly provides hope for further such openings during the coming solar cycle peak. I'm not too surprised when I can contact Japan or Australia from California, but Europe is something else entirely!"

    Here's exciting news[5] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for September 23 - 29 were 75, 75, 38, 67, 30, 57, and 74, with a mean of 59.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 89.7, 88.4, 88.4, 86.3, 85.3, 88.9, and 101.6, with a mean of 89.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 8, 7, 3, 7, 10, and 5, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 10, 6, 7, 2, 6, 9, and 4, with a mean of 6.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://pskreporter.info/
    [2] https://go.nasa.gov/2ZGGh0J
    [3] https://bit.ly/3FaNsys
    [4] https://www.space.com/the-mysterious-sunspots
    [5] https://youtu.be/nBhmY10LoC4
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 8 13:47:39 2021
    10/08/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots were visible every day this week, but the numbers were lower. Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 58.4 to 30.7, and the average daily solar flux was down by 2.9 points to 86.9.

    Geomagnetic activity was a little higher, with average daily planetary A index going from 7.3 to 8.1, and average daily middle latitude A index from 6.3 to 6.7.

    Friday, October 1, was affected by a solar flare from sunspot group AR2871, driving the planetary A index to 15. This had a greater effect at higher latitudes, with Alaska's College A index hitting 30 and 31 on Friday and Saturday. In the middle of the UTC day on Saturday the College K index hit 7 - a high number.

    Predicted solar flux is 86 on October 8 - 9; 84 on October 10 - 14; 75 on October 15 - 16; 80, 85, 88, and 90 on October 17 - 20; 88 on October 21 - 22; 85 on October 23 - 24; 90, 100, 95, and 90 on October 25 - 28; 88 on October 29 - November 5; 85 and 80 on November 6 - 7; 75 on November 8 - 12, and 80, 85, 88, and 90 on November 13 - 16.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 8 - 10; 12 and 8 on October 11 - 12; 5 on October 13 - 17; 10, 12, 10, and 8 on October 18 - 21; 5 on October 22 - 24; 10 on October 25; 5 on October 26 - 31; 8 on November 1 - 2; 5 on November 3; 8 on November 4 - 5; 5 on November 6 - 13, and 10, 12, 10, and 8 on November 14 - 17.

    On October 4, Spaceweather.com[1] reported, "Solar Cycle 25 continues to over-perform. Sunspot counts for September 2021 were the highest in more than 5 years. And, for the 11th month in a row, the sunspot number has significantly exceeded the official forecast." The report was based on a forecast[2] from the Space Weather Prediction Center. Spaceweather.com continued, "Higher-than-expected sunspot counts suggest a stronger cycle, with a peak occurring in late 2024, instead of mid-2025."

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for October 8 - November 2 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on October 16-17


    o quiet to unsettled on October 8-9, 11-13, 20-22, 24, 26-27, 30-31


    o quiet to active on October 10, 15, 23, 25, November 2


    o unsettled to active on October 14, (18-19, 28-29,) November 1


    o Active to disturbed - Nothing predicted


    o Solar wind will intensify on October 11, (19, 22, 25,) 28



    Remarks:

    * Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    After 0000 UTC on October 5, I (K7RA) was calling CQ using FT8 on 12 meters, and noted on pskreporter.info[3] that only two stations outside my local (CN88uq) Seattle area were receiving me - W2PKY (EL88vi) and KZ4RB (EL99ic) in Florida, both more than 2,500 miles away. W2PKY noted in an email that 12 meters is a strange band, and reports such as this are quite common. He also noted that on Wednesday, October 6: "10 meters was really rockin'!"

    I notice frequently that 12 meters has propagation for me across North America when 10 meters does not. This will change with more sunspot activity.

    NN4X reported last Friday, October 1 from EL98jh in Florida:

    "There were some good LP and SP openings on 12 meters to Asia yesterday. I worked HS3PJF at 1415 UTC and YB2HND at 1425 UTC via short path, over the North Pole. I also worked BA5CW at 1307 UTC, beaming long. Thursday evening, I worked RW0LT on 12 meters at 0022 UTC. So, we're getting there!"

    Carl, K9LA, noted in a recent email, "Events in the lower atmosphere coupling up to the ionosphere are another factor that can screw up (or enhance) the bands, not just geomagnetic field activity. With no parameters to define these lower atmospheric events, we're really running blind in the short-term. And this is why our propagation predictions programs are not daily models."

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a three-hour course, "The Ionospheric Weather Ballet, Part 1[4]."

    Sunspot numbers for September 30 - October 6, 2021 were 46, 28, 25, 38, 29, 27, and 22, with a mean of 30.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 94.6, 90.5, 87, 86, 83.5, 81.7, and 84.8, with a mean of 86.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 15, 8, 6, 6, 5, and 8, with a mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 13, 6, 6, 4, 6, and 6, with a mean of 6.7.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[7] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update
    [3] http://pskreporter.info/
    [4] https://youtu.be/SoXXEIetg4k
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 15 13:05:22 2021
    10/15/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Although we saw sunspots on every day of the October 7 - 13 reporting week, solar activity declined somewhat. Average daily sunspot numbers went from 30.7 to 23.7, and average daily solar flux from 86.9 to 85.6. Geomagnetic indicators were higher, with average daily planetary A index rising from 8.1 to 12.4, and average daily middle latitude A index from 6.7 to 10.1.

    On Saturday, October 9, Spaceweather.com[1] reported a strong earth-directed M1.6-class solar flare and CME erupting at 0640 UTC, causing an HF radio blackout over the Indian Ocean. This caused the planetary A index on October 12 to hit 45, and Alaska's College A index to read 60.

    Predicted solar flux is 82 on October 15; 80 and 78 on October 16 - 17; 76 on October 18 - 22; 85 on October 23 - 24; 90, 100, 95, and 90 on October 25 - 28; 88 on October 29 - 30; 85 on October 31 - November 5; 88 on November 6; 85 on November 7 - 13; 88 on November 14 - 15; 90 on November 16; 88 on November 17 - 18, and back to 100 on November 22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 15 - 16; 5 on October 17; 12 on October 18 - 19; 8 on October 20; 5 on October 21 - 24; 10 on October 25; 5 on October 26 to November 1; 8 on November 2; 5 on November 3 - 5; 10 on November 6 - 7; 8 on November 8 - 9; 5 on November 10 - 12; 10, 12, 12, 10, and 8 on November 13 - 17; 5 on November 18 - 20; 10 on November 21, and 5 through the end of the month.

    Here' the geomagnetic activity forecast for October 15 - November 9 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on October 16 - 17, November 3, 5


    o quiet to unsettled on October 20 - 22, 24, 26 - 27, 30 - 31, November 4


    o quiet to active on October 23, 25, November 6


    o unsettled to active on October (15, 18 - 19, 28 - 29,) November (1 - 2,) 7 - 9


    o Active to disturbed - Nothing predicted



    Solar wind will intensify on October (19, 22, 25,) 27 - 31, November 1, 9

    Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    On October 12, Spaceweather.com reported in an email alert: "Last night, a coronal mass ejection (CME) struck Earth's magnetic field, sparking a moderately strong geomagnetic storm. Auroras were sighted in the USA as far south as Nebraska with lights so bright in some places that onlookers successfully photographed them using cell phones."

    The November 2021 issue of QST arrived, and the article on page 70, "Propagation Tools and Resources for Contesting" by WO1N, KC2G and members of the Yankee Clipper Contest Club shares some great resources, not only of interest to contest operators.

    Here's an interesting article[2] on 60 meters propagation.

    Here is the October 11 video report[3] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for October 7 - 13 were 13, 13, 14, 38, 35, 26, and 27, with a mean of 23.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 85.7, 92.4, 81, 84.5, 88.5, 83.5, and 83.5, with a mean of 85.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 13, 45, and 6, with a mean of 12.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 4, 9, 15, 32, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[6] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://bit.ly/2YNlHLN
    [3] https://youtu.be/XrPW4337IHI
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 22 15:22:51 2021
    10/22/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity declined last week, and on Sunday, October 17, there were no sunspots at all. Most days had the minimum non-zero sunspot number, which is 11, indicating a single sunspot group containing a single sunspot.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 23.7 to 11.3, and average daily solar flux dropped 7 points from 85.6 to 78.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average planetary A index declining from 12.4 to 8.4, and average middle latitude A index from 10.1 to 5.4. No middle latitude A index was available for October 16 - 18, so middle latitude A index figures presented in this report are uneducated guesses on my part.

    Despite the lower activity, I noticed frequent 10- and 12-meter openings here at my location in Seattle, via FT8.

    Predicted solar flux appears lower too, with values at 82 and 83 on October 22 - 23; 84 on October 24 - 25; 85 on October 26 - 29; 88 on October 30; 85 on October 31 - November 11; 80 on November 12 - 20; 85, 90, 95, and 90 on November 21 - 24; 88 on November 25 - 26, and 85 through the end of November.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 22; 5 on October 23 - November 1; 8 on November 2; 5 on November 3 - 5; 12, 10, and 8 on November 6 - 8; 5 on November 9 - 13; 12 on November 14 - 15; 8 on November 16 - 18; 5 on November 19 - 20; 10 on November 21; 5 on November 22 - 28, and 8 on November 29.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for October 22 - November 16 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on October 27, November 3 - 5


    o quiet to unsettled on October 22 - 24, 26, 30 - 31, November 9


    o quiet to active on October 25, November 1, 6, 10 - 13


    o unsettled to active on October (28 - 29,) November (2,) 7 - 8, 14 - 16


    o Active to disturbed -- Nothing predicted



    Solar wind will intensify on October (22, 25,) 27 - 31, November 1, (8,)

    9 - 10, (11)

    Note: Parenthesis indicates a lower probability of activity enhancement.

    On October 21 WB8VLC in Salem, Oregon, as well as posts on the Western Washington DX Club email list noted S-9 SSB signals on 15 meters from J5T in Guinea-Bissau.

    WB8VLC sent an extensive list of contacts, and said, "10, 12, and 15 meters have sounded like 20 meter phone for the past month, and not listed are many 10- and 12-meter QSOs on SSB to South America and the Pacific that I haven't included.

    "Antennas all homemade: 10 meter, four-element Yagi at 30 feet, and a dual-band (12 and 15) Moxon at 23 feet. All QSOs use 400 to 500 W."

    Here's a short list of a few of his contacts and his comments, all times in UTC:




    2021-10-19



    1517



    FY5KE



    10 M



    28.019



    CW



    French Guiana



    I hear him every week on 10 CW or 10 SSB since Sept 2021.




    2021-10-18



    0032



    3D2AG



    12 M



    24.907



    CW



    Fiji



    Antoine and I start on 10 CW then we move to 12 CW most weekends.




    2021-10-18



    0016



    3D2AG



    10 M



    28.029



    CW



    Fiji



    Antoine has been on every night for the past week on 10 and 12 CW.




    2021-10-17



    2143



    E51JD



    10 M



    28.430



    SSB



    South Cook Islands  



    Jim has been on every week on 10 SSB since ~early September.



    N0JK in Kansas wrote: "The afternoon of October 18 sporadic-E appeared over the east coast of North America. This allowed suitably located stations in W3, such as NZ3M, to make sporadic E transequitorial propagation contacts to Argentina. The Es continued after sundown.

    "In eastern Kansas, I found 6 meters wide open after returning from dinner at 0010 UTC October 19. I made over a dozen FT8 contacts to W1, W2, W3, W4, and VE3. Best DX was WW1L FN54 at over 1,400 miles.

    "October 21 is the peak of the Orionid meteor shower. I set up portable and was able to work N0LL/P in rare grid DN80 at 1142 UTC on 6-meter meteor scatter using MSK144.

    "Larry Lambert, N0LL is operating portable from rare grid DN80 during the Orionid shower on 6 meters to help Fred Fish Memorial Award (FFMA) enthusiasts log a new one.

    "He had a strong sporadic-E opening on 6 meters October 20, making contacts from VE2 across the eastern states around 1600 UTC, then west to California. His operation was planned to be primarily meteor scatter, but rare October sporadic-E let many stations work a rare grid square."

    Here's yet another article[1] concerning big solar activity and monster flares.

    I like to check the STEREO[2] mission for upcoming activity. I look out for the big white splotchy images just over the eastern solar horizon, which is on the left in the image.

    On October 21 Spaceweather.com[3] noted: "A new sunspot group is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb. It is crackling with activity."

    Sunspot numbers for October 14 - 20 were 24, 11, 11, 0, 11, 11, and 11, with a mean of 11.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 83.4, 84, 77.6, 77.4, 75.9, 76, and 75.9, with a mean of 78.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 6, 10, 10, 14, and 6, with a mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 3, 5, 6, 9, and 5, with a mean of 5.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[6] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/giant-solar-flare/
    [2] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [3] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 29 11:39:48 2021
    10/29/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot number increasing by nearly five-fold from 11.3 to 54.9. Average daily solar flux rose from 78.6 to 95.7. Currently our sun is peppered with spots[1].

    A new sunspot group appeared on October 22, another on October 24, two more on October 25, and another on October 26. The sunspot number peaked on Thursday, October 28, at 96, and daily solar flux peaked on the same day at 111.7.

    Geomagnetic indicators were nice and quiet, but don't expect that to last. Average daily planetary A index went from 8.4 to 4.4 and average daily middle latitude A index declined from 5.4 to 3.6.

    Predicted solar flux looks quite promising, at 113 on October 29; 114 on October 30 - November 1; 110 and 105 on November 2 - 3; 100 on November 4 - 5; 86 on November 6 - 7; 85 on November 8 - 9; 83 on November 10; 82 on November 11 - 15; 85 on November 16 - 20; 94 on November 21; 95 on November 22 - 23; 96 on November 24; 95 on November 25 - 29; 92, 90, and, 88 on November 30 - December 2, and 86 on December 3 - 4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 29; 40, 35, and 12 on October 30 - November 1; 5 on November 2 - 5; 12, 10, and 8 on November 6 - 8; 5 on November 9 - 14; 10 and 8 on November 15 - 16; 5 on November 17 - 22; 8 on November 23 - 24; 10 on November 25 - 26; 5 on November 27 - 28; 8 on November 29; 5 on November 30 - December 2, and 12, 10, and 8 on December 3 - 5.

    On Thursday, Spaceweather.com[2] reported that a "strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is possible on October 30, when the CME from yesterday's X-flare is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field." This is why the predicted planetary A index on October 30-31 is 40 and 35.

    At 0129 UTC on October 29, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning: "[Sunspot] AR2887 produced X1.0 flare on October 28 at 1535 UTC, which triggered a halo CME. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth in the first half of UTC day 30 October. As a result, the geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach major storm levels with a chance of severe storm periods. The global Kp index may reach 7 (G-3 level storms). On the local night of 30 October (and maybe 31 October), aurora may be visible from Tasmania and the southern mainland coastal areas. INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION 30 - 31 OCTOBER 2021."

    This weekend is the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest, which should be affected by the increased geomagnetic activity. The CW weekend is November 27 - 28. ARRL November CW Sweepstakes is next weekend, November 6 - 8.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for October 29 - November 23 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on November 4 - 5, 18 - 19


    o quiet to unsettled on October 31, November 9, 12 - 13, 17, 20, 22


    o quiet to active on October 29, November 1 - 3, 10 - 11, 21, 23


    o unsettled to active on October 30, November 6 - 8, 14, 16


    o Active to disturbed November (15)


    o Solar wind will intensify on October 30 - 31, November 1, (8,)



    9 - 10, (11,) 16 - 17

    Remarks: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Darrell, AA7FV, sent this[3] along. He also sent plots of 17-meter WSPR reports for October 28, which, he noted, show the obvious effect of a CME from 1520 to 1550 UTC.

    You really should check out his pages on QRZ.com[4] and QSL.net[5], which give fascinating details of his activities, and background in astrophysics.

    Don't miss the latest video[6] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Mike May, WB8VLC, in Salem, Oregon, reported his contacts on the high HF bands until October 27. He listed only the "interesting QSOs" as there were just too many others from 17 to 10 meters to include. One was an AM contact on 15 on October 24 at 1640 UTC with CT1EHI in Portugal. Signals were solid both ways, he reported.

    Another was D4F [Cape Verde] on 10-meter SSB, "the first real strong African-region signal heard in a long time here on 10 meters."

    Others he reported included the HD8R DXpedition in the Galapagos, which he worked on 17 meters at 0129 UTC on October 27. He also worked HD8R on 10, 12, and 15 meters on October 26; E51JD in the South Cook Islands on October 24 on 10 meters (SSB), and VE8WD/m the same day on 15 meters (SSB). "A nice QSO with a ham in Yellowknife running 100 W mobile. He was over S-9 for 2 hours after our contact."

    Here[7] is a Canadian view on solar risks to the power grid, and more[8] on this week's space weather.

    In a message with the subject line, "Good propagation these days," Angel Santana, WP3GW, reported from Puerto Rico on October 26:

    "Yesterday at about 1730 UTC, heard M5JON on 28.505 MHz, which was a surprise since it has been a long time since I heard an English station on 10 meters." He reported an S-7 report. "Today contacted HD8R on 24.950 MHz split (up 5) up at 1851 UTC. I suppose and hope that the CQ WW SSB this weekend is why I am hearing much activity on all bands."

    Here's part of a message from Frank Donovan, W3LPL:

    "Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal until likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then mostly below normal at least until mid-day Sunday.

    "We are in the geomagnetically active autumn equinox season through late October with about twice as many geomagnetically active days compared to December, January, June, and July caused by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) more frequently persisting in a southward orientation (-Bz).

    "Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms.

    "Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream.

    "More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.

    "Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 56 minutes earlier and day length is 90 minutes shorter than it was on September 22. Daytime ionization and residual nighttime ionization in the far northern polar region is rapidly declining due to steadily increasing polar night effects."

    Sunspot numbers for October 21 - 27 were 11, 28, 32, 46, 81, 95, and 91, with a mean of 54.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 81.9, 86.9, 86.8, 93.2, 100.6, 109.3, and 110.9, with a mean of 95.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, and 3, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 9, 3, 2, 2, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3.6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[11] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

    Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[15] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://helio-vo.eu/solar_activity/current/
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
    [4] http://www.qrz.com/aa7fv
    [5] https://www.qsl.net/aa7fv/
    [6] https://youtu.be/yvjR-AYm2zs
    [7] https://bit.ly/3GIuy35
    [8] https://bit.ly/2XT1QdY
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 5 12:58:38 2021
    11/05/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot numbers and solar flux index were both declining by the end of the October 28 - November 3 reporting week, but averages for both numbers were higher than reported in last week's bulletin, ARLP044. The average daily sunspot number increased from 54.9 to 67.6, while average daily solar flux jumped from 95.7 to 102.

    Coronal Mass Ejection (CME[1]) activity through the week drove geomagnetic numbers much higher. Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.4 to 12, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 3.6 to 9. On November 4 the planetary A index was 69, and Alaska's College A index was 131.

    Spaceweather.com[2] reported that what it called a "cannibal CME" struck Earth at 2000 UTC on Wednesday, November 3, and that this would spark a strong geomagnetic storm, and boy, did it ever! With aurora observed in US below northern-tier states, it had a pronounced negative effect on HF propagation on Thursday, November 4. For a time on Thursday, testing propagation paths using FT8 and PSK Reporter[3], I could see no propagation above 20 meters.

    Here's more[4] on that CME from Space.com, "Sun outburst goes 'cannibal' as fast new blob overtakes a slower one

    At 0326 UTC on November 5, the Australian Space Forecast Centre noted that, although conditions have quieted down, a southward turn of the interplanetary magnetic field may cause another increase in geomagnetic activity.

    I received several reports this week that 10 meters is back"

    Jon Jones, N0JK, in Kansas noted on November 4:

    "No (VHF) enhancement in Kansas from the CME impact yet. Last weekend in the CQ WW SSB contest, 10 meters was open both days. I logged HD8R Galapagos Islands and other stations using 5 W and a mobile antenna. Best DX: D4F.

    "ZF5T was very loud Sunday afternoon around 2015 UTC on 10 meters."

    A NOAA prediction at 2118 UTC on November 4 predicted solar flux at 90 on November 5; 85 on November 6 - 7; 80 on November 8 - 12; 88 on November 13 - 14; 89 on November 15; 92 on November 16 - 19; 93 on November 20; 95 on November 21 - 27; jumping to 103, 102, 100, and 98 on November 28 - December 1; 96 on December 2 - 4; 92 and 90 on December 5 - 6; 88 on December 7 - 11; 89 on December 12, and 92 on December 13 - 16.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 15, and 8 on November 5 - 7; 5 on November 8 - 14; 10 and 8 on November 15 - 16; 5 on November 17 - 29; 8 on November 30 - December 1; 5 on December 2; 12, 10, and 8 on December 3 - 5; 5 on December 6 - 11, and 8 on December 12 - 13.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for November 5 - December 1 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on 18 - 19, 23, 25


    o quiet to unsettled on November 9, 12 - 13, 17, 20, 22, 24 


    o quiet to active on November 5, 10 - 11, 21, 26 - 27 


    o unsettled to active on November 6 - 8, 14, 16, 28 


    o Conditions will be active to disturbed November (15, 29,) 30, December 1 


    o Solar wind will intensify on November (8,) 9 - 10, (11,) 16 - 17, (29 - 30), December (1 - 2,) 3 - 4



    Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Southgate Amateur Radio News included this report[5], "Solar Cycle 25 October report from AA6XE."

    N8II in West Virginia, reported:

    "It certainly was a great month just past. DXpeditions have resumed, quite a few to Africa and all of them worked on 12 and 10 meters. C5C, The Gambia is also active, and TL7M, Central African Republic heard on 12, 15, and 20 meters, CW. 7P8RU is a Russian group worked on 30 - 10 meters on CW and 17 and 12 meters on SSB. Hearing Russia and Scandinavia on 15 has been a nearly daily occurrence. 12 meters has been open to Europe daily for about the last 10 days. South America is in daily on 10, with best conditions around 1900 - 2000 UTC; 15 begins opening to Europe at around 1240 UTC.

    "At 1645 UTC, most Europe were gone. 12-meter signals vary day to day with quite a few new countries going into the log, such as Kuwait, Israel, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Faeroe Islands, Gibraltar, and Guernsey - many on both SSB and CW. CW countries worked on 12 meters now are 103 versus about 80 before September, 15 meters now 198, and 10 CW now 98.

    "A major solar storm was forecast for the CQ World Wide phone contest October 30 - 31. When the K index peaked at 5 at 1500 UTC on the October 31, we were working loud Europeans - even northern Europe. At the start of the contest, I was on 20 and, very strangely, South American and Caribbean signals were way down with decent conditions to East Asia, excluding Japan. I heard about nine Chinese stations in just over the first hour, putting three into the log including B0A at S-9 + 20 dB from rare zone 23.

    "I also heard the Philippines, worked RN0CT in Zone 19, 7Q6M Malawi, and D4L Cape Verde in first hour. Saturday morning, 15 was opening around at around 1120 UTC to Europe. There were loud signals from all over EU, and Kazakhstan was heard. At 1329 UTC, I switched to 10 and found a few Europeans; first worked were Hungary, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland, and a very loud E7AA in Bosnia. The opening was spotlight type to relatively small areas most of the Mediterranean, many from Sicily. EW5A in Belarus was the only northern European station logged at 1414 UTC for Zone 16.

    "Right around 1430 UTC, Europe faded out. I worked A73A Qatar on a peak, and South America began coming through, with signals poor at first with some good by 1450 UTC. Despite strong signals from Paraguay, Chile, and Argentina, Brazil was not loud enough to work until 1725 UTC; then many showed up through the afternoon until my 2210 UTC sunset. I was lucky to catch ZM4T New Zealand and VK4A right around sunset for Zones 32 and 30. 

    "Sunday, I was not expecting much with the rising K index, but 15 sounded pretty normal, and I logged EA1L in Spain at 1228 UTC on 10. It was a struggle to work many stations because of better conditions for stations farther to the northeast in North America. I caught 7P8RU in Lesotho at 1255 UTC. After a short break, 10 meters band blew wide open at 1339 UTC with many calls from Western Europe, including quite a few Dutch and German stations. TK5MH called from Corsica, and 4U1A called from the Vienna International Center. Then gradually northern Europe filled, with OH0V Aland Islands and calls from Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Norway, and Finland in the 1500 UTC hour. The K index was 5 reported at 1500 UTC, so it seemed strange to be able to work so far north - possibly auroral Es. Most of Europe finally faded by 1656 UTC. Quite an opening, the best of Solar Cycle 25 so far."

    We heard from Mike May, WB8VLC, in Oregon:

    "During CQ WW SSB last weekend, 10 meters was sounding like nothing I have heard in 20 years with some Europe in the morning then the typical South America in the afternoon.

    "The evening of Saturday, October 30, was the best Asia opening I have heard on 10 with 28.3 to 29 MHz filled with JA stations. The most interesting was the other Asian DX worked aside from Japan: VR2XAN in Hong Kong and DY1T in the Philippines, both in here for around 1 hour at S-9+ along with other big signals from Hawaii, New Zealand, Australia, Guam, the Mariana Islands, and even some weak China on 10 meters."

    Mike sent a long list of stations with S-9 signals on 10 meter SSB, including Cape Verde, Guam, Portugal, Madeira, Galapagos and Brazil. "Even 10 FM was active!" he said.

    From Angel Santana, WP3GW, in Puerto Rico:

    "Ten meters was the surprise band on this weekend's contest. I always start on the band and rack up the South Americans, about 26 in an hour which is almost threefold compared to last year. After working some on 15 meters at 1200 UTC for an hour, wow 10 meters was teaming with life like 5 years ago! Worked a few Europeans in half an hour and went and go during the day, including an FR about 1433 UTC. 

    "It was not until Sunday morning that 10 got interesting, when I worked early E7AA, who worked only on 10 and was my only Bosnia QSO. Then ZD7, 7P, OH0, 7Q, EA9, pretty easily with low power. At 1930 UTC turned my antenna (manually) toward the US and called on 28.392 MHz, working 56 stations in an hour, 98% of them US stations.

    "Can't wait for the ARRL 10-Meter Contest 2021!"

    From Simon, GW0NVN:

    "Here at Finningley Amateur Radio Society G0GHK, we were shown what the sun can do on Sunday, October 31. Switched to 10 during breakfast to hear a number of strong stations including VK6 having a rag chew and working a few European stations. Coming back to 10 in the afternoon, we had an over 1.5-hour pile-up of W and VE stations."

    Here is an exciting update[6] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    This weekend is ARRL November Sweepstakes[7] (CW).

    Sunspot numbers for October 28 - November 3 were 96, 82, 76, 83, 53, 42, and 41, with a mean of 67.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 111.7, 108.4, 107.2, 102.7, 97.7, 97, and 89, with a mean of 102. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 10, 20, 10, 17, and 21, with a mean of 12. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 8, 16, 8, 12, and 14, with a mean of 9.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[10] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

    Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[14] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://pskreporter.info/
    [4] https://www.space.com/cannibal-coronal-mass-ejection-cme-november-2021
    [5] https://bit.ly/3bKUUmu
    [6] https://youtu.be/xOKCsuqcYvo
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 3 15:14:46 2021
    12/03/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was up this week. Average daily sunspot number increased from 26.9 to 46.1, and average daily solar flux was up 10.8 points to 90.9. Geomagnetic indicators were a little higher. Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.9 to 8.7, and average daily middle latitude A index from 5.4 to 6.3.

    I like looking for openings on 10 meters and continue to be surprised by how often I hear nothing (when probing with FT8 and pskreporter[1]) but find plentiful openings on 12 meters, indicating the MUF is somewhere between 10 and 12 meters. To help 10-meter observers, I have a CW propagation beacon on 28.2833 MHz, K7RA/b in Seattle. It runs about 10 W into a half-wave dipole at a modest height. 

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 26, one on November 28, and two more on November 30.

    On December 1, Spaceweather.com[2] announced a geomagnetic storm watch: "Minor geomagnetic storms are possible on December 3 when a CME might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled into space on Nov. 29th by an erupting filament of magnetism in the sun's southern hemisphere. According to NOAA computer models, the bulk of the CME should sail south of our planet with a near miss just as likely as a glancing blow."

    At 2340 UTC on December 2, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: "The effects of a coronal hole windstream and coronal mass ejection are expected to increase geomagnetic activity on 03 December.

    Conditions are likely to be initially quiet with activity increasing. Active to minor storm levels are expected."

    Predicted solar flux for the next month has flux values peaking at 94 on December 27 - 28. The forecast sees values of 86 on December 3; 84 on December 4 - 5; 82 on December 6; 80 on December 7 - 10; 82 on December 11 - 12; 80 on December 13 - 14; 85 on December 15 - 21; 82 and 80 on December 22 - 23; 78 on December 24 - 25; 92 on December 26; 94 on December 27 - 28; 88 on December 29 - January 1, then 85, 82, and 80 on January 2 - 4; 82 on January 5 - 8, and 80 on January 9 - 10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 14, 10, and 12 on December 3 - 6; 8 on December 7 - 8; 5 on December 9 - 11; 8, 12 and, 10 on December 12 - 14; 5 on December 15 - 16; then 8 and 10 on December 17 - 18; 5 on December 19 - 25; 8 on December 26; 5 on December 27 - 29; 10 on December 30 - 31; 8 on January 1; 5 on January 2 - 7, and 8, 12, and, 10 on January 8 - 10.

    AA6XE wrote:

    "We now stand at exactly 2 years since the Cycle 24/25 minimum was recorded, and the most notable attribute of Cycle 25 is its slow climb out. We have seen bursts of activity from the sun where numerous active regions pop up with only a handful actually developing into numbered sunspot groups. The bulk of the new regions that form quickly decay away. As it stands right now Solar Cycle 25 activity is running a little bit ahead of the same point in Solar Cycle 24. Does this point to a weak Solar Cycle much like we experienced with Solar Cycle 24? It's still too early to say. The first couple of years in any Solar Cycle are never easy to take and Cycle 25 is proving itself no exception. We await 'the breakout,' when solar activity ramps up dramatically.

    "A dramatic run-up in solar flux over a period of a few days has little influence on increasing ionospheric MUF. What does have an effect on the ionospheric MUF is an increase in the monthly solar flux average and, more significantly, an increase of the 90-day mean solar flux reading. The dramatic and unanticipated spike in sunspot activity we saw a year ago, November 2020, temporarily boosted the 90-day solar flux average, which had been running in the low 70s at the time, into the low 80s in the ensuing 60 days. It became quickly apparent the November 2020 event was an outlier, and the 90-day solar flux subsequently slipped back to the mid-70s by mid-April 2021. Since that time the 90-day solar flux average has been rising steadily, albeit slowly. As long as those figures continue to steadily chug uphill, the MUF will continue to rise. The 90-ay solar flux average as it stands presently is in the upper 80s. The 90-day solar flux mean will be in the low 90s by the end of December if Solar Activity resumes the pace of growth we saw early in the fall. The solar breakout predicted by folks at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR[3]) has not materialized in time to provide any sort of relief to the winter doldrums we typically experience.

    "On the bright side, this winter is shaping up to be one of the best we will see for 160-meter DX in the last several years. Solar activity has picked up just enough to increase ionization at those frequencies with little or no increase in D-Layer absorption, while the Planetary K Index has remained low."

    On November 29, N0JK, reported from Kansas:

    "There was 6-meter sporadic-E on Thanksgiving. From Kansas I worked WB5TUF (EL29) and NE5U (rare grid EL19) around 0240 UTC November 25 on 50. 313 MHz FT8. N0LL (EM09) worked NR4J (EM60) at 1625 UTC on FT8 on November 25."

    From OK1HH:

    "Weekly commentary on phenomena in the sun, in the magnetosphere, and in the ionosphere of the Earth: One week ago, I compiled my last weekly forecast of Earth's magnetic field activity. Primarily, my goal was to compile predictions of changes in the ionospheric propagation of decameter waves. Their first users were my friends - radio amateurs. But 45 years ago no one provided available predictions. That's why I gradually learned to compile them myself. Today, actually applicable predictions are available from several sources on a weekly and daily basis, especially in the US, Belgium, Australia, Russia, and, to my delight, also in the Czech Republic. In the meantime, I had long since reached retirement age and planned to finally quit. But I was asked to try to continue, using my experience. Therefore, from now I will try to write comments on current and upcoming development. If this activity will be found as useful and/or interesting, I will continue. And like 45 years ago, it's an experiment. So here is my first attempt:

    Solar activity remains at current levels, and due to the location of solar coronal holes near the central meridian, the influx of faster solar winds can be expected to continue. The irregular daily course of changes in the ionosphere, to which the relatively low or still declining solar activity will contribute, should continue in the next 5 days or so.

    In addition, after the CME on November 29, it is still possible for the plasma cloud to arrive late on December 2 or on December 3, but the probability is already low.

    After the expected slight increase in solar activity, I expect a more regular course of ionosphere parameters in the second half of December."  - F. K. Janda, OK1HH

    Email: ok1hh(at)crk.cz[4], ok1hh(at)rsys.cz[5]; Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU[6].

    NASA's new solar tour[7] feature starts today:

    Sunspot rotation rate history[8].

    Sunspot variations during their decay[9].

    Dynamics of bright features[10].

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted her latest space weather analysis[11] on December 1.

    Sunspot numbers for November 25 - December 1 were 20, 52, 53, 53, 47, 61, and 37, with a mean of 46.1. 10.7 cm flux was 93.6, 92.3, 91.8, 92.2, 89.8, 90, and 86.4, with a mean of 90.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 9, 11, and 18, with a mean of 8.7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 3, 7, 6, 8, and 14, with a mean of 6.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[12] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[13] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[14] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[15] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[16] website.

    Instructions[17] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[18] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://ncar.ucar.edu/
    [4] http://crk.cz/
    [5] http://rsys.cz/
    [6] http://boh.cze.eu/
    [7] https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2021/12/02/welcome-to-nasas-solartour/
    [8] https://bit.ly/3rsLfu1
    [9] https://bit.ly/3rAJ7QS
    [10] https://bit.ly/31pJraj
    [11] https://youtu.be/cISNu72utnI
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [17] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [18] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

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    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 10 13:31:49 2021
    12/10/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: One new sunspot group appeared on December 4, but 4 days later it was gone, and on Thursday, December 9, we saw a second day with no sunspots.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 46.1 to 24.6. Average daily solar flux went from 90.9 to 82.6.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month does not seem promising. The December 9 forecast shows 77 on December 10; 80 on December 11 - 14; 82 on December 15; 84 on December 16 - 17; 85 on December 18; 87 on December 19 - 22; 86 on December 23 - 27; 84 on December 28; 82 on December 29 - January 2; 80 on January 3 - 5; 82 on January 6 - 8; 80 on January 9 - 10; 82 on January 11; 85 on January 12 - 14, and 87 on January 15 - 18.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 10, and 8 on December 10 - 13; 8 on December 13 - 14; 5 on December 14 - 15; 10, 8, 12, 10, and 8 on December 16 - 20; 5 on December 21 - 26; 15, 18, and 12 on December 27 - 29; 8 on December 30 - January 3; 5 on January 4 - 5; 10, 8, 5, 12, and 10 on January 6 - 10; 5 on January 11 - 12; 15, 12, 10, and 8 on January 13 - 16, and 5 on January 17 - 22.

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH: Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and Earth's Ionosphere, December 9, 2021:

    The only sunspot group on Active Region 2904, in which we observed three spots
    R = 13) on December 7, was calm and decayed to plage. R = 0 applies, since
    December 8, so we register a minimum within the quasi-periodic 27-day fluctuation. At the same time, solar wind has weakened, the geomagnetic field has calmed, and as a consequence result are the lowest values of f0F2 (critical frequency of the F2 layer). However, the decreasing length of sunlight in Earth's Northern Hemisphere also contributes to it.

    Until the end of the year, we can expect a gradual rise in solar activity to the level of the end of November, an irregular alternation of the Earth's magnetic field between quiet and unsettled, and a gradual rise in daily f0F2 values just slightly above average.

    Email: ok1hh(at)crk.cz[1], ok1hh(at)rsys.cz[2]

    [3]Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU[4]

    This weekend is the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest[5]! Solar flux should be rising a modest amount during the event. Debris from asteroid Phaethon could possibly enhance propagation on 10 meters during the Geminids meteor shower, peaking on December 13.

    N0JK reported on Wednesday from Kansas:

    "The Geminids meteor shower is predicted to peak December 13 - 14. Already, meteor rates are picking up.

    "I was able to work NJ0W/r in grid DN82 on 50 MHz meteor scatter using MSK144 on December 7, at 0330 UTC. Dave, NJ0W, made other meteor scatter contacts as well. DN82 is considered a rare grid for the Fred Fish Memorial Award (FFMA[6]) on 6 meters."

    The FFMA is awarded for working all North America grid squares on 6 meters. So far, Fred Fish, W5FF (SK), is the only ham who has done this.

    Sunspot numbers for December 2 - 8, 2021 were 45, 29, 35, 36, 14, 13, and 0, with a mean of 24.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 86.6, 85.3, 88.1, 82.7, 80, 78.9, and 76.9, with a mean of 82.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 9, 9, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 7, 6, 6, 3, and 4, with a mean of 5.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[9] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[11] website.

    Instructions[12] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[13] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://crk.cz/
    [2] http://rsys.cz/
    [3] http://rsys.cz/
    [4] http://boh.cze.eu/
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/ffma
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 17 15:48:45 2021
    12/17/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots disappeared December 8 - 11. Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux hardly changed at all, with sunspots at 24.4 during the December 9 - 15 reporting week, compared to 24.6 last week, and average daily solar flux shifting from 82.6 to 82.9, rising to 102.5 by Wednesday. But, sunspots have come back dramatically over the past few days, with the daily sunspot number hitting 127 on December 16, when the noon 10.7-centimeter solar flux reading at Canada's Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory (DRAO[1]) was 117.9, reaching 121.5 at the 2200 UTC reading.

    Geomagnetic activity was quiet. Average daily planetary A index changed from 7.6 to 5, and average daily middle latitude A index from 5.3 to 3.9.

    One new sunspot group emerged on December 12, with two more appearing the next day, two more on December 15, and another two on December 16.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month looks very good for this week at 118 on December 17 - 21; 115 and 110 on December 22 - 23; 82 on December 24 - 27; 80 on December 28; 78 on December 29 - January 3; then 80 on January 4 - 10; 82 on January 11, and 84 on January 12 - 17. Predicted flux values drop below 80 after January 24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 17; 5 on December 18 - 19; 8, 16, 12, and 8 on December 20 - 23; 5 on December 24 - 26; 15, 18, and 12 on December 27 - 29; 8 on December 30 - January 1; 5 on January 2 - 8; 8 and 5 on January 9 - 10; 12, 10, 10, and 8 on January 11 - 14; 5 on January 15 - 22; then 15, 18, and 12 on January 23 - 25, and 8 on January 26 - 28.

    Unfortunately, propagation was poor during the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest[2] over the December 11 - 12 weekend - not surprising with no sunspots on the 2 days prior to the contest, and none over the weekend. On Friday night, I heard no signals (with a modest dipole antenna), so I called CQ on CW just above 28 MHz, and worked one station only 8 miles away. I worked a few stations on Sunday across North America, and heard many trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) signals from South America.

    Don't miss "Understanding an Ionosonde to Understand the Ionosphere," by propagation expert Eric Nichols, KL7AJ, in the January 2022 edition of QST[3], currently available to ARRL members online.

    Here's the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere" from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Solar activity has risen a little more and faster in recent days than we expected. After several smaller eruptions, the probability of an M-class solar flare increased. Although Solar Cycle 25 is still close to minimum, we can expect its maximum in 3 to 4 years to be higher than usually predicted. The last rise in solar activity is not long (in recent days only); after that, a decline can be expected again in the last week of December.

    Although most of the active areas are located south of the solar equator and not too far from the coronal holes, we still expect only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity starting the third week of December.

    Earth's ionosphere reacted significantly to the last rise of solar radiation by the rise of MUF. However, the hitherto stable development will be replaced by fluctuations and deformations of the daily course. This will happen probably at the beginning of the third week of December. This will be followed by a relatively significant decrease in MUF, both day and night. The decline of MUF by night will be significant, if the onset of the increase in geomagnetic activity will be up during the night.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for December 17-23 from Tomas Bayer at The National Geomagnetic Observatory near Budkov in the Czech Republic.


    o Quiet: December 17 - 18, 22 - 23


    o Unsettled: December 18 - 22


    o Active: December 18 - 19


    o Minor storm: unlikely about December 19


    o Major storm: 0


    o Severe storm: 0



    Toward the end of current forecast period, we expect, at most, quiet to unsettled conditions.

    Max White, M0VNG, noted this article, "Swarm and Cluster get to the bottom of geomagnetic storms[4]," from the European Space Agency.

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has posted[5] more of her continuing space weather course.

    I received many emails correcting the information I provided last week regarding the Fred Fish award. This[6] sums it up best.

    Sunspot numbers for December 9 - 15 were 0, 0, 0, 12, 40, 40, and 79, with a mean of 24.4. The 10.7-centimeter solar flux was 76.7, 75.7, 76.2, 79.9, 80.6, 88.9, and 102.5, with a mean of 82.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 5, 3, 6, 5, and 9, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 4, and 8, with a mean of 3.9.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[9] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[11] website.

    Instructions[12] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[13] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://nrc.canada.ca/en/research-development/nrc-facilities/dominion-radio-astrophysical-observatory-research-facility
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/qst
    [4] https://bit.ly/3IQBLix
    [5] https://youtu.be/T8di-D1s-40
    [6] https://www.arrl.org/ffma
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 24 13:06:36 2021
    12/24/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was way up this week, and it was reflected in on-air activity, especially on 10 meters. If only the ARRL 10-Meter Contest were held a week later! The average daily sunspot number jumped by 100 points - from 24.4 last week to 124.4 in the December 16 - 22 reporting week. Average daily solar flux increased from 82.9 to 125.

    Average planetary A index went from 5 to 9.1, and average middle latitude A index from 3.9 to 6.4.

    It was great to see online images of the sun covered with spots.

    Predicted solar flux over the next week looks quite promising, with daily solar flux more than 100 until the end of the year, then rising above 100 on January 16 - 22. But the outlook issued on Thursday, December 23 wasn't as optimistic as the one issued a day earlier.

    Flux values are predicted at 130, 125, 120, 115, and 113 on December 24 - 28; 110 on December 29 - 30; 85 on December 31; then 83, 81, 80, and 81 on January 1 - 4; 82 on January 5 - 6; 83, 86, 90, and 92 on January 7 - 10; 95 on January 11 - 12; 96 on January 13 - 15, jumping up to 115 on January 16 - 17; 114, 111, and 110 on January 18 - 20; 108, 102, and 95 on January 21 - 23; 90, 88, 87, and 85 on January 24 - 27, then dropping to a low of 80 on January 30 before rising above 90 after the first week of February.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 16, 8, 10, and 12 on December 24 - 29; 8 on December 30 - 31, then 5 on January 1 - 8; 8 and 5 on January 9 - 10; 10 on January 11 - 12; 5 on January 13 - 14; 8, 12, 18, 12, and 8 on January 15 - 19; 5 on January 20 - 22; 8, 10, 8, and 8 on January 23 - 26, and 5 on January 27 - February 4.

    These observations from J.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Unlike meteorologists, for example, we do not have reliable models of the Sun's behavior and subsequent changes in Earth's magnetosphere and atmosphere. Therefore, we did not expect the current increase in activity. On the other hand, we can consider them as another promise of a higher maximum of Solar Cycle 25.

    "Most spots are in the Sun's southern hemisphere, M-class flares are observed in both hemispheres, the solar flux has climbed from the lowest to the highest values in 2 weeks, and the solar wind speed increased over 10 days.

    "Geomagnetic activity increased relatively only slightly, but only after the spot activity moved to the western half of the solar disk. These changes were mostly favorable for HF propagation conditions. Before the start of the ascent, the 18 MHz band was regularly open for DX contacts, while more recently, the 21 MHz band has opened relatively reliably.

    "As a result of the eruptions of previous days, Earth's magnetic field activity should increase around December 24 and likely again on December 27.

    "Before the end of the year, a significant increase in solar activity is expected before it rises again around mid-January."

    Thanks to KH6CP for this article[1] on the new WindCube satellite:

    W9NY wrote from Chicago:

    "Even though conditions were disappointing for most of the ARRL 10-Meter Contest weekend, there were sporadic openings all over the United States from my Dune Acres location, and for a few minutes at a time signals, from both the Colorado and California areas were very strong. I also worked a number of stations in South America, but only Puerto Rico in the Caribbean.

    "On Sunday, 12/19, 10 really opened up for a while. I first heard a W6 beacon in the morning coming in S-9 and not another signal on the band. After one CQ at 28.420, I started a long string of contacts in late morning, and again during mid-afternoon. Some west coast stations running just 100 W to dipoles were coming in 20 dB over S-9, just like in the good old days.

    "Made some contacts on 12 meters too. I heard nothing on 6 meters.

    "I am looking forward to using my MFJ loop on 10 meters from Miami Beach over the first 3 months of 2022."

    KA3JAW monitors 11 meters for sporadic-E. On December 23 he wrote:

    "Wednesday, December 22, saw a 6-hour multi-hop transatlantic sporadic-E event into western Europe on 11 meters, from 1326 to 1929 UTC. Solar flux index hit its highest point in the current solar cycle at 140. This was due to nine sunspot groups; 2907, 2908, 2909, 2911, 2912, 2915, 2916, 2917, and 2918.

    "Sunday, December 19, saw a crazy 8-hour single and multi-hop sporadic-E day on 11 meters, from 1623 on December 19 until 0037 on December 20.

    "During noontime, western Canadian prairie provinces plus US west coast stations were rolling into the US northeast. From 0222 until 2320 UTC, Es conditions were deteriorating with increased background noise conditions until the last station from Golden Valley, Arizona was heard at 0037 UTC. Seems that the secondary sporadic-E winter season has begun."

    On December 19, Steve Sacco (who did not give a call sign) wrote this, regarding 10 meters:

    "I've never seen so many KL7s on at the same time. So far, have worked two, plus VE8CK and VY1FC.

    "PSKR showing the band open from my location to Europe and KL7 and JA and VK at 2215 UTC on December 19. JA3REX worked at 2217 UTC.

    "If only this had happened last weekend!"

    Jon, N0JK, wrote:

    "I was on 6 meters using MSK144 on the morning of December 14 at the peak of the Geminids meteor shower. 50.260 MHz was busy. Worked WI9WI, WG0G, and KF0Y in rare grid DN92 around 1400 UTC. All random contacts.

    "Also checked 50.245 for W5A (EL15). Some flickers on the screen, but no decodes."

    W8TJM of Liberty Lake, Washington, commented on his December 19 activity on 15 meters:

    "As soon as I got my 15 meter half-wave vertical antenna up at my low-noise site at 1915 UTC, I worked OH6RM in Finland. He was S-5 - S7 with very little QSB, and we had a solid 25-minute QSO, and then I listened to his contacts off and on for another hour. I also had an enjoyable contact with Per, SM2LIY, at 1950 UTC and he was also S-5 - S-7 but had a very fast flutter on his signal that was consistent. I heard no European stations."

    Carl, K9LA, commented:

    "The paths that Toivo and Per commented on can be two different mechanisms depending on where the US station is. I wrote about this (called 'the Santa Claus Polar Path[2]') in my monthly column on my website back in 2014.

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted[3] a new forecast on December 23 with a video running 96 minutes.

    Sunspot numbers for December 16 - 22 were 127, 119, 117, 109, 115, 147, and 137, with a mean of 124.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 117.9, 120.9, 121.3, 115.3, 122.7, 136.6, and 140.4, with a mean of 125. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 3, 4, 12, 16, 10, and 11, with a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 2, 2, 8, 13, 7, and 8, with a mean of 6.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and this propagation page[6] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3yWtVPH
    [2] http://www.k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf
    [3] https://youtu.be/PfPi5cYR31Q
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 31 14:30:06 2021
    12/31/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity persisted this week, although the numbers were a little lower. The average daily sunspot number declined from 124.4 to 110.1. Average daily solar flux slipped slightly, from 125 to 124. Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 6.4, and average middle latitude numbers changed from 6.4 to 4.4.

    New sunspot groups appeared on December 25, 26, and 28.

    Solar flux over the next month is expected to peak at 130 on January 18 - 19, and the numbers are 100 on December 31 - January 1 - 2; 98, 95, and 95 on January 3 - 5; then 90, 92, and 100 on January 6 - 8; 105 and 110 on January 9 - 10; 115 on January 11 - 13; 118 on January 14 - 15; then 122 and 128 on January 16 - 17; 130 on January 18 - 19; 128, 125, and 120 on January 20 - 22; 125 on January 23 - 24; 122 on January 25; 120 on January 26 - 27; 115, 110, 100, and 95 on January 28 - 31; 90 on February 1 - 2; 92 and 100 on February 3 - 4; 105 and 110 on February 5 - 6, and 115 on February 7 - 9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 12 and 8 on December 31 - January 3; 5 on January 4 - 10; 10 on January 11 - 12; 5 on January 13 - 14; 8 and 12 on January 15 - 16; 8 on January 17 - 18; 5 on January 19 - 22; 8, 10, 8, and 8 on January 23 - 26; then 5 on January 27 - February 6, and 8 on February 7 - 8.

    JK Janda, OK1HH, offers his weekly commentary on the sun, the magnetosphere, and Earth's ionosphere for December 30, 2021. (A continuation of Earth's magnetic field activity predictions, published between 1978 - 2021.)

    Solar activity was a little more vivid than we expected. Both spot and flare activity predominated in the Southern Hemisphere, while small coronal holes were observed mostly in the Northern Hemisphere.

    This corresponded with irregular occurrences of the slightly increased activity of the Earth's magnetic field and irregularities in the daily course of the ionosphere parameters.

    The surprise came after the increase in proton density in the solar wind in the evening of December 29, where only a relatively small increase in its group velocity was observed. The result in the ionosphere was higher critical frequencies in the F2 layer in the middle of the night, and an increased occurrence of scattering and extended reflections, especially on the morning of December 30.

    Mike, KM0T, in northwestern Iowa (EM13) wrote early on December 29 about 6 meters:

    "Watching Spaceweather.com[1] for a few days, and they predicted a few M-class flares hitting, but they seemed to have missed us. But I also noticed that the flux was around 140, and, knowing that a slight disturbance could skew things the right way, I was somewhat aware of things.

    "Then I saw TEP-chordal stuff happening on December 26 to ZL/VK, which did not really surprise me thinking we may have gotten a few glancing blows from the flares. However, I did not see many if any midwest reports, so I sort of ignored it.

    "The next day I saw it again, but was busy. Then, I saw an email from W7XU (Arliss in South Dakota) saying ZL was in. Sure enough. I turned the radio on and got decodes from ZL7DX. It appeared that there was an Es link in the midwest to DM43/XE area that was getting into the TEP-Chordal hops. I believe ZL7 was working a few XEs on FT8. So, I found one decode and moved my TX frequency up and started calling -17 report. He came back a few minutes later with -20, and then my RR73 was answered 73 in same sequence. It all happened very quickly. Then he was gone!

    "Thought it was my first ZL, then I found out it was ZL7.

    "Not sure anyone this far north and east worked him. The stacked six-element 6-meter Yagis were as low as possible, due to recent wind storms. Bottom one is about 24 feet, then about 20 feet higher on the mast for the upper one. 1.5 kW, no preamp, FLEX-6600."

    Related to this, see this article[2] by Carl, K9LA.

    Grant, KZ1W wrote on the Western Washington DX Club email list on December 29:

    "N6MZ and I were separately working EU stations a couple of weeks ago on 12 meters well before local sunrise. Clearly, the short path wasn't open, and we were mystified how that can happen.

    "This week I am working EU on 15 well before sunrise.

    "Both bands are very limited on short path with sunrise here and sunset in EU so close together at this time of year.

    "I found a possible explanation in K9LA's Propagation book: When US amateurs point antennas at Central Africa toward the magnetic equator, the higher level of ionization there often causes signals to be scattered. If EU points south to SW, a portion of their signals will be side-scattered west. The path is optimized roughly between 1200 and 1500 UTC, and seeking the best azimuth is worth trying. Should work on 10 meters, if EU is there.

    "With QRO, a beam, and FT8, there is enough gain to make it work. Try it if the 40-meter FT8 mess is too annoying. But I did work A71AE Qatar on long path on 40 this week for a new band and a Marathon count.

    I've used NE-aimed scattering paths on 10 meters open to the Caribbean, but not to EU. Different mechanisms I think. Learn something new all the time."

    AG7N responded:

    "20 has been excellent to EU about 8 - 9 AM local. I've been working my good friend DF9LJ, who lives close to the Danish border, on CW and SSB at 599/59 the last few days. The band closes about 9:15 AM local. On 40, EU has been coming in at 7:30 AM local (1530 UTC) but I've been receiving the signals LP and SP simultaneously, which makes copy difficult at moderate CW speeds."

    W0PB wrote:

    "On December 19 between 2032 and 2035 UTC on 10 meter CW, I worked Tord, SM3EVR, and Per, SM2LIY, in that order. Both were 579 - 589 here in West Des Moines, Iowa. They both gave me a 559 report from my 100 W and ground-mounted vertical. They disappeared 10 minutes later."

    N0JK wrote:

    "Some sporadic-E December 26 from Kansas to N5BO (EM60) Florida. He received me on 50.313 MHz FT8 at -21 dB. Stations along the Gulf Coast and Texas worked New Zealand on 6 meter FT8 with Es links to TEP."

    Jeff, N8II, wrote from West Virginia on December 30:

    "I worked MI0SAI and EI9HX with S-9 signals on 12 meters SSB at about 1545 UTC today. VE2CSI in CQ zone 2 (NE QC) was S-9 + 25 dB on 10 meters CW via Es at the same time. The DXMaps[3] MUF was above 30 MHz in almost all directions from FM19 at 1700 UTC, but I only worked one station in San Jacinto County, Texas, plus Reno, Nevada, on either F2 or double hop Es.

    "Sunday through Wednesday I worked EU on 10 meters,, with Tuesday being the best day. Two stations in Scotland were S-9 at around 1400 UTC Tuesday. They included Ian, MM0TFU, who always seems to be there when band is open. He now runs 400 W to a five-element Yagi.

    "Also, I worked MI0SAI and an OE6 on 20 meters SSB at 2130 UTC Wednesday about 25 minutes before my sunset and many hours past EU sunset with possible Es aid."

    Don't forget Straight Key Night[4] tonight and tomorrow (January 1 UTC). I will be using keys from the estate of Vern Buttenob, K7AYE, who administered my Novice license exam when I was 12 years old.

    Kids Day[5] takes place on New Year's Day.

    Sunspot numbers for December 23 - 29 were 143, 145, 117, 95, 85, 107, and 79, with a mean of 110.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 129.8, 126.2, 130.7, 125.4, 123.9, 120.5, and 111.4, with a mean of 124. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 7, 3, 10, 9, and 7, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 5, 2, 8, 6, and 5, with a mean of 4.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://bit.ly/3pGyScz
    [3] http://www.dxmaps.com/
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/kids-day
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 7 14:48:21 2022
    01/07/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity was substantially lower this week, but new sunspot groups emerged on December 31, January 1, January 4, and January 5. Average daily sunspot number dropped from 110.1 to 36.4, while average daily solar flux went from 124 to 91.4.

    Geomagnetic activity was still fairly quiet, even with a number of flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), with average daily planetary A index changing from 6.4 to 7.7, and average middle latitude A index from 4.4 to 6.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month shows 10.7-centimeter flux values peaking at 120 on January 16 - 24, and again at 120 in mid - February. The daily predicted values are 94 on January 7; 96 on January 8 - 14; 115 on January 15; 120 on January 16 - 24; 110 on January 25; 100 on January 26 - 27; 95 and 90 on January 28 - 29; 88 on January 30 - 31; 85 on February 1 - 5; 90, 95, and 100 on February 6 - 8; 115 on February 9 - 11, and 120 on February 12 - 20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 7 - 8; 12, 14, and 8 on January 9 - 11; 5 on January 12 - 14; 8 and 12 on January 15 - 16; back to 8 again on January 17 - 18; 5 on January 19 - 22; 10 on January 23; 8 on January 24 - 26; 5 and 10 on January 27 - 28; 8 on January 29 - 30; 5 on January 31 - February 6; 10 on February 7 - 8; 5 on February 9 - 10 and 8, 12, 8, and 8 on February 11 - 14.

    Here is the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and Earth's Ionosphere - January 6, 2022" from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. This is a continuation of Earth's magnetic field activity predictions published between 1978 and 2022.

    Solar activity is declining as expected. The last of the chain of active areas on the sun, which gradually set behind the western limb of the solar disk, still contributed to the increase in the speed of the solar wind in the first 3 days of the new year.

    Magnetic field activity has decreased since January 4, and MUF values are gradually declining.

    The solar coronal holes, which now extend along the southern half of the central meridian, should contribute to a slight increase in the speed of the solar wind in the coming days.

    In conclusion, the best news is that we expect a recurrent increase in solar activity around mid-January.

    Visit the SolarHam[1] website by VE3EN, long-term valued not only by radio amateurs but by professional astronomers. - F.K. Janda, OK1HH

    I frequently check the STEREO satellite website[2] to peer over the sun's horizon to see what might emerge over the next few days. I look for those messy white splotches, which may indicate magnetic complexity and perhaps a returning or emerging sunspot.

    Although the image is constantly updated (every few minutes) presenting views of the sun in real time, in October 2014 communication with the STEREO-B spacecraft[3] was lost, so we no longer see a full 360° image of the sun.

    I've been wondering how much it would cost to replace the failed spacecraft and if there might be any plans to do so. I checked with someone at NASA, and received this interesting response:

    "I don't know exactly how much it would cost to build a single spacecraft to replace STEREO-B at this point.

    "The two spacecraft combined (A and B) were about $550 million back before STEREO launch in 2006.

    "There is no plan to replace STEREO-B, but based on the success of the STEREO mission there are a lot of people proposing missions observing the Sun and solar wind from spacecraft at the relatively stable Sun-Earth L4 and/or L5 points or else other spacecraft orbiting the Sun. We will see if any of them are funded. The exact cost would depend on the details of the mission."

    L4 and L5 refer to Lagrange points[4].

    Jon Jones, N0JK, in Lawrence, Kansas wrote:

    "January 3 was a big day for the VHF bands.

    "The Quadrantid meteor shower appeared to peak around 2030 UTC January 3, as per the NASA prediction.

    "I logged N0LL/P DM89 (353 miles) at 1950 UTC on 50.260 MHz MSK144. Then KE8FD (EN80, 779 miles) also 50.260 MSK144. Logged KA9CFD (EN40, 993 miles) on FT8, too far for groundwave; may have been meteor enhanced.

    "That evening there was a strong sporadic-E opening across North America. I had a 6 meter PSK flag from ZF1EJ (EK99, 1573 miles) at 2357 UTC. Later worked N7BHC in rare EL15 (829 miles, Brownsville, Texas) at 0246 UTC."

    Jon writes the monthly "World Above 50 MHz[5]" column in QST, and operates from grid square EM17 in Kansas.

    More good 10-meter news from Greg Mitchell, KB1AWM, in Goose Creek, South Carolina:

    "Just wanted to report a very favorable afternoon on 10 meters on December 27. Worked 4 VK stations back to back from South Carolina starting about 3:30 PM local (2030 UTC). Antenna was a simple longwire. VK4ZC started the run. He copied me at -06, and I gave him a -15 report. VK3BOX, VK2HFP, and VK3KJ followed, with the last one issuing me a +04. Great Christmas surprise on 10 meters. Over the past several years, I have never worked that easily into the South Pacific on 10."

    On January 6, WJ5O posted to an HF beacon email list:

    "It's mid-morning in Southern Alabama, and I'm hearing beacon signals a bit earlier than usual.

    "1549 - 1559 UTC, 6 January 2022, I can hear/identify five 10-meter beacon signals into EM71as.

    "28.2082 AK2F, RANDOLPH, NJ, 885 miles

    "28.234 K4DP, COVINGTON, VA, 534 miles

    "28.236 W8YT, MARTINSBURG, WV, 691 miles

    "28.270, WA3NFV, FAIR HILL, PA, 838 miles

    "28.296 W3APL, LAUREL, MD, 733 miles"

    Al, W1VTP, in New Hampshire wrote on January 5:

    "Last night was the pits [on 75 meters]. We did all our communications using the Washington SDR, and it was mostly successful. Point-to-point communication [was] useless."

    I think what happened was that the ionosphere directly above his area was not dense enough to reflect 75-meter signals. We may think of local 75-meter signals depending on ground wave propagation, but in fact it may depend on high-angle signals reflected from the overhead ionosphere.

    Sunspot numbers for December 30 - through January 5 were 77, 53, 52, 25, 12, 12, and 24, with a mean of 36.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 102.4, 101.5, 93.9, 89, 84, 85.5, and 83.7, with a mean of 91.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 11, 10, 12, 6, and 3, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 2, 9, 7, 9, 5, and 3, with a mean of 6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://www.solarham.net/
    [2] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [3] https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/behind_status.shtml
    [4] https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/faq/88/what-are-lagrange-points/
    [5] https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 14 13:05:29 2022
    01/14/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this warning at 2355 UTC on January 13:

    "A Southern coronal hole with extensions into the equatorial region is expected to reach geo-effective location on the solar disk on late UTC day 15 January. As a result, unsettled-to-active conditions with a chance of minor storms are possible on these two days."

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on January 9, and another showed up on January 12, followed by three more on January 13. Average daily sunspot numbers rose six points this week, to 42.4, and average daily solar flux increased from 91.4 to 101.6.

    Another positive sign on Thursday, January 13: the daily sunspot number soared to 111, far above the recent weekly average, and the highest number since Christmas Day 2021.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter this week, with average daily planetary A index declining from 7.7 to 6.1, and average daily middle latitude A index from 6 to 4.1.

    Spaceweather.com[1] reported the new solar cycle is performing better than expected, and used this illustration[2].

    They went on to say that sunspot counts exceeded predicted values for 15 straight months, and the monthly value at the end of December 2021 was the highest in 5 years - and more than twice the value forecast by the NOAA/NASA prediction panel.

    Higher A index values on January 8 and 9 were from a G-1 class storm caused by co-rotating interaction regions[3].

    Predicted solar flux for the next month shows values peaking at 120 on January 21 - 24 and again around mid - February. Predicted values are 106, 108, and 110 on January 14 - 16; 108 on January 17 - 18; 106 and 104 on January 19 - 20; 120 on January 21 - 24; 110 on January 25; 100 on January 26 - 27; 95 and 90 on January 28 - 29; 85 on January 30 - February 1; 95 and 105 on February 2 - 3; 100 on February 4 - 5; 102 on February 6 - 7; 105 on February 8; 110 on February 9 - 10; 115 on February 11 - 12, and 120 on February 13 - 20. Flux values are expected to dip below 90 after February 25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 14; 14, 24, 12, and 8 on January 15 - 18; 5 on January 19 - 22; 10 on January 23; 8 on January 24 - 26; 5 on January 27; 10 on January 28 - 30; 5 on January 31 - February 3; 15, 10, and 8 on February 4 - 6; 5 on February 7 - 11; 12, 10, and 8 on February 12 - 14; 5 on February 15 - 18; 10 on February 19, and 8 on February 20 - 21.

    Here's the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - January 13, 2022" from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "The current view of the distribution of active areas on the sun seems at first glance to be relatively simple. Current activity should keep solar flux above 100 SFU. Other active areas beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk - which we see thanks to the STEREO satellite - should increase that number to somewhere around 120 SFU soon. The key feature for the influence toward Earth is the prominence of the southern polar coronal hole, which will be responsible for increasing of the enhanced speed of the solar wind and the activity of the Earth's magnetic field in the coming days. This is a recurring event that will take place around January 16. After that we expect a decline in solar activity at the end of January and the beginning of February."

    N2CG wrote:

    "On Monday, January 10, at around 1600 UTC I went on the DXMAPS website and clicked the '50 MHz' tab, and to my surprise found that there was a very strong, in-progress 6 meter FT8 opening between Florida and my location in Northern New Jersey (FN20) and the Pennsylvania/New York/Connecticut and Southern New England area. Over the next 2-1/2 hours I casually made FT8 contacts with 12 Florida stations in addition to C6ACB in FL15 and CM2RSV in EL83. The band continued to be open from morning into the afternoon and evening and finally closed at around midnight local time, 0500 UTC.

    "The next day January 11, 6 again opened up on FT8 although not as concentrated to Florida from my location. I worked stations on FT8 in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. At 2022 UTC I worked XE2X in EL06 on 6-meters FT8." 

    Carl, K9LA, commented on the question from W1VTP about poor local 75 meter propagation in last week's bulletin.

    "I'm active in the Indiana CW traffic net (QIN) and the Ninth Region Net (9RN). We can also have problems on 80 in the winter months, especially when we're still near solar minimum. Our Plan B is to move to 160 meters, and that always works.

    "Yes, it's due to the nighttime F2 region electron density being too low to support high-angle signals. I wrote about this in my April 2020 Monthly Feature[4] on my website."

    Here's the latest video[5] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Here's a local newspaper article about solar cycle progress with a nice solar image[6].

    Even Forbes magazine has a solar update[7].

    Sunspot numbers for January 6 - 12 were 35, 38, 31, 36, 38, 51, and 68, with a mean of 42.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 93.7, 107.3, 102.4, 102.1, 102.2, 100, and 103.2, with a mean of 101.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 2, 14, 10, 6, 5, and 4, with a mean of 6.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 1, 9, 7, 4, 3, and 3, with a mean of 4.1.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[10] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

    Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[14] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://bit.ly/3GsbuFI
    [3] https://bit.ly/3KahWmI
    [4] https://bit.ly/3Fr4B66
    [5] https://youtu.be/AEhz4zfxre4
    [6] https://bit.ly/3K8HK2O
    [7] https://bit.ly/3qp0Olo
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 21 13:23:40 2022
    01/21/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar and geomagnetic activity increased this week. The average daily sunspot number was up by 52 points, rising from 42.4 to 94.4. The sunspot number peaked at 120 last Saturday, January 15.

    Average daily solar flux went from 101.6 to 112, peaking at 119.4 on Sunday, January 16. Average daily planetary A index rose from 6.1 to 15.6, and average middle latitude numbers went from 4.1 to 11.3. On January 20, the daily solar flux dipped to 99.3, the first daily noon reading below 100 since January 6.

    As reported by Spaceweather.com[1], sunspot AR2929 erupted[2] at 1744 UTC on January 18 with an M1.5 class solar flare, blasting a pulse of X-rays causing a shortwave radio blackout. Another eruption occurred on January 20, producing a radio blackout[3].

    I observed the January 18 blackout while using FT8 on 10 meters to observe propagation via pskreporter.info[4]. Just before the blast, I could see my 10-meter signal reported by stations on the East Coast. Suddenly, I saw no reports. The surprising part: during that period, no local stations reported copying my signal either.

    Predicted solar flux is 95, 93, and 91 on January 21 - 23; 89 on January 24 - 26; then 92 on January 27 - 28; 90 on January 29 - 30; 95 on January 31; then 100 and 105 on February 1 - 2; 110 on February 3 - 10; 115 on February 11 - 14; then 110, 108, and 106 on February 15 - 17; 102 on February 18 - 21; 100 on February 22 - 23; 95 on February 24, and 90 on February 25 - 26. Flux values may rise to 110 after March 2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 10, and 12 on January 21 - 23; 8 on January 24 - 26; 5 on January 27; 10 on January 28 - 30; 5 on January 31 - February 3; then 15 and 10 on February 4 - 5; 5 on February 6 - 9; then 12, 15, 12, 18, and 10 on February 10 - 14; 5 on February 15 - 19; 8 on February 20 - 22; 5 on February 23; 10 on February 24 - 26, then back to 5 through the end of the month.

    These predicted values are updated daily[5].

    Here's the daily solar flux[6] from Penticton, British Columbia, Canada. The local noon reading is the official SFN for the day.

    This is the Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - January 20, 2022, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "We have been able to observe four to eight groups of sunspots on the Sun over the past 7 days. They are now mostly in the western hemisphere, therefore solar flux has been declining. And suddenly a bang!

    "This morning (January 20), we could observe a nice moderately sized solar flare near the northwestern limb of the solar disc. With a maximum at 0601 UTC, it caused the Dellinger effect in the Indian Ocean region for tens of minutes, followed by Type II and IV solar radio noise bursts, which confirmed the outburst of CME (but plasma cloud likely will miss Earth).

    "Now we are facing a gradual decline in solar activity. Larger geomagnetic disturbances are expected in early February again. Their more accurate prediction will depend on the further development of the sunspot groups that are now located around the eastern limb of the solar disk.

    "This is the geomagnetic activity forecast for January 21 - 27:


    o Quiet: January 22 - 23


    o Unsettled: January 21 - 22, 25 - 27


    o Active: January 24 - 25


    o Minor storm: January 24


    o Major storm: 0


    o Severe storm: 0



    "Geomagnetic activity summary: After the last active and minor storm events (at the Budkov observatory, minor storm event were recorded on January 14, 16, 18, and 19) we expect decreased to unsettled geomagnetic activity January 21 - 22 or quiet to unsettled January 22 - 23. Then, starting on Monday, January 24, other active or minor storm events are possible. At the end of the current forecast period, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions to return.

    "

    Tomas Bayer

    RWC Prague

    Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR Prague,

    Department of Geomagnetism

    Budkov Observatory (BDV)

    Here's an interesting sunspot plot[7].

    KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania (FN20jq), reported:

    "On Saturday, January 15, from 1346 to 1426 UTC, started hearing multiple central Mediterranean Sea stations, Italy, Greece, with others along the Adriatic Sea on SSB on 11 meters. Signal strengths deviated from fairly good to moderately strong with moderate QSB. Average distances reached up to 4X sporadic-e ranges at 4,750 miles. This was the time frame when the Global D-Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) maximum absorption attenuation reached up to 16 MHz. For the rest of the day Es conditions were dampened with higher amounts of skywave background noise."

    K7HBN (CN87) reported on January 14 via Western Washington DX Club:

    "Today's opening on 28 MHz was unique indeed. The opening was obviously enhanced by the solar wind stream from the coronal hole. What was the strangest, I heard stations from Arizona with a strong auroral component on their signals calling CQ on the same frequency as strong OH, SM, and LA stations. I can't remember ever encountering such propagation in my entire time in ham radio, and I've orbited the Sun a few times."

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, reports[8]: "Our sun is getting busy."

    Sunspot numbers for January 13 - 19, were 111, 112, 120, 103, 99, 59, and 57, with a mean of 94.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 105.5, 110.2, 115.6, 119.4, 113.5, 114.5, and 105.3, with a mean of 112. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 15, 22, 19, 9, 18, and 23, with a mean of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 10, 17, 16, 6, 12, and 15, with a mean of 11.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[11] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

    Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[15] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://bit.ly/3rC6W9t
    [3] https://bit.ly/3AfyLby
    [4] http://pskreporter.info/
    [5] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt
    [6] https://bit.ly/33XlFnj
    [7] https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot
    [8] https://youtu.be/2eXhwDHYeeY
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 28 16:43:05 2022
    01/28/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: A new sunspot group appeared on January 20 and another on January 24, followed by two more on January 25 and one more on January 26. But, overall solar activity declined from the previous week, January 13 - 19. Average daily sunspot number dropped from 94.4 to 39.6, and average daily solar flux went from 112 to 97.6.

    On January 27 the daily sunspot number was 85, much higher than the average of 39.6 of the previous 7 days - always a good signal for increasing activity.

    Predicted solar flux is 105 on January 28 - February 4; 108 on February 5 - 6; 110 on February 7 - 8; 108 on February 9 - 10; 106, 105, 103, 101, 100, and 95 on February 11 - 16; 92 on February 17 - 18; 90 on February 19 - 21; 88, 87, 92, and 94 on February 22 - 25; 96 on February 26 - 28; 98 and 100 on March 1 - 2; 105 on March 3 - 4; then 110 on March 5, and 108 on March 6 - 7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12, and 10 on January 28 - 30; 5 on January 31 - February 3; 15 and 10 on February 4 - 5; 5 on February 6 - 9; 12, 15, and 12 on February 10 - 12; 5 on February 13 - 19; 8 on February 20 - 23; 5, 12, and 10 on February 24 - 26; 5 on February 27 - March 2; then 15 and 10 on March 3 - 4, and 5 on March 5 - 8.

    Here's the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - January 27, 2022," from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    Since the end of last November, fluctuations in the level of solar activity within the 27-day periodicity have been more regular, which contributes to the success of the forecasts. This also applies to the occurrence of coronal holes, so predictions of Earth's magnetic field activity are also more accurate (including the next recurrent geomagnetic disturbance, which we expect on or about February 4). The overall level of solar activity is rising faster than long-term forecasts suggest, so it can be assumed that the maximum of the current 11-year cycle will be higher than the previous one.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for January 28 - February 3:


    o Quiet January 28, January 31-February 3


    o Unsettled January 29-31


    o Active January 28-29, February 3-4


    o Minor storm February 4


    o Major storm 0


    o Severe storm 0



    The geomagnetic activity summary:

    Friday, January 28, we expect quiet conditions. Then, starting Saturday, January 29, we expect an unsettled - to - active period ending by January 31. At the start of February, we expect quiet conditions until Thursday, February 3. Around February 3 - 4, we expect a new active episode, which could reach a minor storm level. - Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov Observatory.

    On January 16, a ham in Seattle reported:

    "Amazing auroral opening on 10 meters Friday at 2100-2230 UTC, CW and SSB. Northern Europe only, GM, DL, SP, UA1, EW, OZ, LA, SM, and best signals were from OH. Very unusual and first time Western Washington [saw a] big opening to EU in years, and it was worked by several W7s. DX Maps showed lots of lines over the North Pole, very late night in Scandinavia.

    I often ignore stories from British tabloids, but this one[1] seems not to be overly alarmist.

    Regarding rising activity vs forecasts, back in ARLP002 we included this link[2].

    WA7AA responded (edited):

    "They went on to say sunspot counts exceeded predicted values for 15 straight months, and the monthly value at the end of December 2021 was the highest in 5 years and more than twice the value forecast by the NOAA/NASA prediction panel.

    "This isn't the first place I've seen this claim from the NOAA/NASA prediction panel, and I am wondering if you have any contacts in that group to ask them for some clarification and explanation. There are several problems with this 'over - performance' claim in the link above. The first is that the graph on that link places the last solar minimum several months after the actual minimum that occurred in November 2019. That alone can skew any subsequent analysis and make it prone to a misinterpretation.

    "The next thing is the graph shows the length of their predicted cycle 25 as 14 years long! This is nowhere near any cycle length in recorded history that, as we all know, averages to around 11 years. No one can even predict a cycle length, so where did they get this from?

    "And finally, their predicted cycle graph is a smooth one - peak cycle (slow rising slopes as a result), while most cycles so far have been dual peak cycles (steeper slopes and a sort of a plateau as a result).

    "Once you add all three of these errors into the observation, it is easy to make a claim that the Cycle 25 is over - performing the predictions ('twice the value') made before it started, that generally placed it in the same strength as Cycle 24 within the 5 - 10% margin.

    "However, when the curve is adjusted to start in November 2019, when it's compressed to the average 11 years length and tweaked to a double peak graph (in other words, more or less carbon copied the Cycle 24 graph), it quickly becomes obvious that the Cycle 25 is so far following the last cycle curve almost exactly, insignificantly higher at 3 - 4 spots per month. A recent cycle comparison[3] confirms this observation. I am by no means an expert in propagation predictions, but it just seems weird that anyone connected to NOAA and/or NASA would make such an error and proceed to stick to it for so long. Am I missing something here? Was this a bad case of wishful thinking on their part? I would like to know what their explanation is."

    Jon, N0JK, reported:

    "A major sporadic-E opening on 6 meters took place in the 2022 ARRL January VHF Contest on Saturday afternoon January 15. Starting around 2100 UTC, stations in Florida appeared in Kansas. The opening grew and spread, and by 2300 UTC 6 meters was open to the entire southeast. I received a PSK flag from ZF1EJ and logged XE2X (EL06). The opening then spread east to Ohio and north to Minnesota (N0JCF, EN35). KF0M (EM17) worked Cuba and almost completed with HI3AA. The opening faded at 0046 UTC with K3VN (EL98) last in my log. I was operating single-operator portable 10 W with an MFJ-9406 and a two-element Yagi. Cold and windy! The next morning, a short 6 meter Es opening to Mexico with XE2YWH (DL92) worked at 1435 UTC. All contacts FT8.

    "The sporadic-E was a real treat for the January VHF Contest."

    Here's a link to a video report[4] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for January 20 - 26 were 60, 23, 22, 22, 26, 53, and 71, with a mean of 39.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 99.3, 97.3, 95.2, 93.5, 95.2, 100.9, and 101.8, with a mean of 97.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 8, 10, 8, 4, 13, and 10, with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 7, 7, 3, 10, and 8, with a mean of 6.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[7] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3s0kThs
    [2] https://bit.ly/3GsbuFI
    [3] http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
    [4] https://youtu.be/vsLIY2Y0xQs
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 4 11:59:50 2022
    02/04/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Our sun was much more active over the past week, with average daily sunspot number more than doubling from 39.6 in the previous week to 81.3 in the current January 27 - February 2 reporting week.

    Geomagnetic indicator average daily Planetary A index changed from 8.3 to 10.1, while average middle latitude A index was unchanged at 6.4.

    Predicted solar flux for the near term is 126, 130, and 125 on February 4 - 6; 120 on February 7 - 10; 128 on February 11 - 12; 125 on February 13 - 14; 120 on February 15 - 17; 128 on February 18 - 21; 125 on February 22 - 25; 128 on February 26; 132 on February 27 - 28; 135 on March 1 - 3; 125 on March 4 - 7; 128 on March 8 - 11, and 125 on March 12 - 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 20, 18, and 10 February 4 - 7; 5 on February 8 - 10; 8 on February 11; 5 on February 12 - 16; then 10, 12, 8, and 5 on February 17 - 20; 10, 8, 5, and 8 on February 21 - 24; 12, 8, 5, and 8 on February 25 - 28; 10, 5, and 5 on March 1 - 3; 20 and 12 on March 4 - 5; 5 on March 6 - 8; then 12 and 8 on March 9 - 10; 5 on March 11 - 15, and 10, 12, and 8 on March 16 - 18.

    This is the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, February 3, 2022" from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "The solar radio flux of 130 and the daily sunspot number up to 100 at the end of January, compared to the equal heliographic length in past solar rotations, showed the unreliability of 27-day quasi-periodicity as the guideline for predictions. The M1 solar flare in AR2936 on January 29 was also a surprise because of the magnetic configuration. On the contrary, it was no surprise that the accompanied LDE, which triggered halo CME, was followed by an intensification of the solar wind and an increase in Earth's geomagnetic field activity. A major storm was expected on February 2, but it arrived a day later and included major changes in the parameters of Earth's ionosphere in the form of its positive phase, around 1200 UTC."

    Here is an interesting new Solar Cycle 25 update[1], thanks to K9LA and K1HTV.

    Via Spaceweather.com[2] comes this comment from Dr. Ron Turner of ANSER Research Institute in Virginia, who thinks it may be too early to expect a strong Solar Cycle 25.

    This graph[3] shows why Turner is skeptical.

    "Solar Cycle 25 is doing something interesting. It is mimicking old Solar Cycle 24 (SC24)," he said. "I took sunspot numbers from the early years of SC24 (the red dashed line) and overlaid them on SC25 [and] they're an almost perfect match."

    This is significant because Solar Cycle 24 went on to become the weakest solar cycle in a century. Its hot start did not lead to a strong maximum. Turner isn't saying that Solar Cycle 25 will likewise be a dud. But, rather, "these early sunspot numbers are not enough to guarantee a strong cycle."

    David Moore shared this article[4] in Science Daily about a big solar event more than 9,000 years ago that was discovered via ice core analysis.

    Here's an update[5] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for January 27 - February 2 were 85, 77, 74, 70, 100, 88, and 75, with a mean of 81.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 107.1, 113.4, 125.3, 129.6, 129.5, 128.6, and 128.2, with a mean of 123.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 17, 10, 10, 7, and 12, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 7, 7, 3, 10, and 8, with a mean of 6.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/03feb22/sunspotcounts.png
    [4] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220126144204.htm
    [5] https://youtu.be/QgJEkh1rNZg
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 11 14:18:46 2022
    02/11/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Three new sunspot groups appeared on February 3, 6, and 8. Average daily sunspot number rose slightly during the February 3 - 9 reporting week, from 81.3 last week to 83.9. Average daily solar flux also increased modestly, from 123.1 to 126.

    Solar flares and geomagnetic storms this week raised the average daily planetary A index from 10.1 to 14.4, and the middle latitude A index - measured at one location in Virginia - went from 6.4 to 9.6.

    At 0523 UTC on February 11, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning. "A recurrent coronal hole is expected to cause unsettled to active conditions with possible minor storm periods on 12 to 13 February."

    A geomagnetic storm on February 4 brought down 40 of 49 just-launched low-Earth orbit Starlink satellites, even though the storm was not especially robust. But February 3-4, the high latitude college A index measured near Fairbanks, Alaska, was 48 and 61, a level that assures the appearance of aurora borealis.

    NN4X shared this Business Insider article[1] on the loss of the Starlink satellites.

    We typically think of geo-storms as a negative event in terms of HF radio propagation, but not always. Sometimes, signals propagate by bouncing off the aurora.

    In this vein, K7SS commented at 2030 UTC on February 10 in an email posting titled, "EU aurora on 10 meter CW." He said:

    "Weak OH, SM, UA, opening now. All aurora-sounding. Point 'em north."

    "All aurora-sounding" refers to the unusual garbled fluttery sounds of auroral propagation, best taken advantage of by pointing antennas north to propagate signals via the aurora.

    W7YED responded:

    "I saw two SM3s at around 2100 UTC calling CQ on 10-meter FT8. One worked an XE, lasted about 5 mins then went away. And now back to the regularly scheduled Caribbean and SA stations. Things are looking up on 10."

    So far this year, sunspots were visible on every day. Last year, 64 days had no sunspots, and in 2020, 208 days were spotless, according to Spaceweather.com[2].

    Predicted solar flux values for the near term are 118 and 116 on February 11 - 12; 112 on February 13 - 14; 110 on February 15 - 16; 112 on February 17; 115 on February 18 - 19; 118 on February 20; 120 on February 21 - 23; 125 on February 24 - 25; 120 on February 26 - March 4; 115 and 122 on March 5 - 6; 120 on March 7 - 9; 110 on March 10 - 11; 115 on March 12 - 18; 118 on March 19, and 120 on March 20 - 22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 22, and 25 on February 11 - 14; 20, 12, 8, 10, and 8 on February 15 - 19; 5, 10, 8, 5, 8, and 12 on February 20 - 25; 8 on February 26 - 27; 5 on February 28 - March 2; 12, 10, 15, and 10 on March 3 - 6; 5 on March 7 - 11; 25 and 20 on March 12 - 13; 5 on March 14 - 15, and 10, 12, and 8 on March 16 - 18.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, offered this commentary:

    "I would like to return once again to the solar flare M1 in AR2936 on January 29, accompanied by LDE[3], which caused the halo CME. The CME was met near Earth by 49 Starlink satellites launched on February 3 into low-Earth orbit from Kennedy Space Center in Florida. As a result, 40 of them did not reached planned orbit and then burned up in the atmosphere in a controlled manner. The cost to launch the Falcon 9 is $30 million, one satellite is $500,000, total damage to Elon Musk = $50 million.

    "Solar activity in Solar Cycle 25 is rising faster than most models anticipated. More accurate predictions of further developments are complicated by the fact that there are several irregularly evolving active areas on the Sun at the same time. For this reason too, we cannot rely on the 27-day periodicity, which is otherwise a good tool for compiling forecasts. If we take advantage of it, we can expect the next major disturbance on 13 - 14 February. Things can be expected to calm after February 16, with quiet days after February 19. Solar flux should not fall below 100 or rise too much above 130."

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has posted this update[4].

    N8II reported from West Virginia on February 7:

    "I was active in the Vermont, Minnesota, and British Columbia QSO parties this past weekend. Conditions were excellent to Minnesota on 20, with loud signals from 1500 UTC until about 2230 UTC (our sunset was 2237 UTC). Even the mobiles were very good copy, many quite loud on 20. Forty meters suffered from D/E layer absorption, with almost all Minnesota signals below my noise level 1700 - 2030 UTC. Eighty was open well before Minnesota sunset, with workable signals at 2300 UTC and some very good signals by 2330 UTC. 

    "Fifteen and even ten meters were open to British Columbia both weekend days. The peak of 10-meter propagation was in the 1900 UTC hour both days, with Saturday being better on both 20 and 15. Several British Columbia signals on 10 meters were greater than S-9 on Saturday. Many US Rocky Mountain-area and west coast signals were on the band as well. Twenty-meter conditions were excellent Saturday, 1600 - 2400 UTC, but 15 and 10 were slow to open Sunday finally opening around 1830 UTC.

    "Propagation to Vermont was about as expected, some loud signals 0000 - 0030 UTC on 40 and mostly loud stations on 75/80. Signals on 160 were fairly weak Friday PM. There was no miracle Es opening like last year, 20 meters was open on backscatter only, and W1JXN was worked on 15-meter CW backscatter just above the noise.

    "Sunday morning, February 6 saw a good 10-meter opening to southern Europe. I had an SSB run 1515 - 1550 UTC, working Croatia, Switzerland, Spain, and many French and Italian stations. Many signals were over S-9. Twelve meters in the past few days has been open each day, at least to southern Europe.

    "Last Friday, February 4, 10 meters was wide open to New Caledonia, 2130 - 2245 UTC. I easily logged FK8IK on both CW and SSB, and FK4QX on SSB. This followed loud signals from the western US."

    Here are some images[5] of recent sunspot regions.

    This study[6] offers an explanation for unusual motions in solar flares, oddly referred to as "solar flames."

    Sunspot numbers for February 3 - 9 were 84, 87, 91, 83, 78, 86, and 78, with a mean of 83.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 126.5, 129.6, 125.9, 123.6, 127.2, 123.1, and 125.9, with a mean of 126. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 32, 12, 15, 7, 5, and 3, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 18, 10, 12, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 9.6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[9] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[11] website.

    Instructions[12] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[13] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-lost-starlink-satellites-orbit-geomagnetic-solar-storm-space-launch-2022-2
    [2] http://spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/space-weather-glossary
    [4] https://youtu.be/uY3TMaExHkg
    [5] http://www.hkastroforum.net/viewtopic.php?f=28&amp;p=321591
    [6] https://bit.ly/3uHX5SI
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 18 14:37:21 2022
    02/18/2022

    A sunspot group emerged on February 10, two more on February 11, two more on February 14 and three more on February 16, when the daily sunspot number rose to 111 - the highest value for this reporting week and well above the weekly average of 75.3. The average for the previous week was 83.9. On February 17 another new sunspot region emerged, but the daily sunspot number declined from 111 to 103.

    The 111 sunspot number was the highest since the end of 2021, when sunspot numbers went as high as 147 following a few days of no sunspots at all.

    On Thursday, February 17, the Daily Sun image on Spaceweather.com[1] showed seven sunspot groups, the whole earth-facing side of the sun peppered with spots.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 126 to 110.1. Average daily planetary A index went from 14.4 to 13, and average daily middle latitude A index declined just 1.3 points to 8.3.

    Why do we care about sunspot numbers? Because high values correlate with greater density in the ionosphere, which gives us better propagation at higher frequencies. Sixty-four years ago, sunspot numbers were so high that hams saw worldwide around-the-clock propagation on 10 meters. Sunspot numbers were never that high before or since. That was the peak of Solar Cycle 19. Newly licensed hams thought it would always be like that. It never was.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month was downgraded from February 16 - 17 forecasts, and is 95 on February 18 - 19; 98 on February 20; 102 on February 21 - 23; 105 on February 24; 108 on February 25 - 27; 110 on February 28; 115 on March 1 - 2; 112 and 110 on March 3 - 4; 108 on March 5 - 8; 105 on March 9 - 11; 103 on March 12 - 13; 100 on March 14; 98 on March 15 - 16; 102 on March 17 - 19; 104 on March 20 - 22, 108 on March 23 - 26, and 110 on March 27.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 18 - 19; 18, 15, and 12 on February 20 - 22; 10, 8, and 10 on February 23 - 25; 15 and 10 on February 24 - 25; 5 on February 26 - March 2; 12, 15, 10, and 8 on March 3 - 6; 5 on March 7 - 10; 15, 12, and 10 on March 11 - 13; 5 on March 14 - 18; 8, 5, 12, 15, 18, and 10 on March 19 - 24, and 5 on March 25 - 29.

    Here's the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere" for February 10, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Solar activity has reached a moderate level, including occurrence of M-class flares. The activity on the far side of the sun was greater, as evidenced by CME observations beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk, which do not affect Earth's ionosphere.

    "We observed exceptionally poor conditions of ionospheric propagation on 80 and, especially, 160 meters on the night of February 14-15, UTC. The cause was a several-day decrease in solar radiation (X-ray level), accompanied by a decrease in the speed of the solar wind, as a source of ionization by particles. The improvement started on the morning of February 15, beginning from the eastern direction when the ionosphere was irradiated by the sun again.

    "Solar activity is expected to rise only slowly in the coming days, reaching a flat quasi-peak maximum in early March. The activity of Earth's magnetic field should increase irregularly and only slightly again on February 20 - 21 and 24 - 25 (February 22 - 24, according to other sources), causing only the usual fluctuations in propagation conditions."

    NN4X reported on February 16:

    "I was a little late to the party on 10 meters, having started checking propagation on 12 meters first.

    "Conditions were excellent, easily the best 10-meter long-path opening I've ever seen. "I was fortunate to have FT8 QSOs with these stations: BF7IEJ (1304 UTC); YC9AUB (1306 UTC); YC1THS (1319 UTC); YC7UDD (1346 UTC); VK3EW (1419 UTC); JK1OZS (1344 UTC); VR2CH (1307 UTC); VR2XYL (1305 UTC), and VR2VAZ (1339 UTC). I also worked VR2CH on 10-meter long path on February 15.

    "While monitoring FT8 on 12 meters around 1905 UTC this afternoon, with the antenna pointed 90°, looking for African stations, I noticed YB0DJ decode.

    "I proceeded to work him, and he was gone shortly thereafter. I've never seen a long path opening so far away from sunrise to sunset. Using PSKR, we can see at least some of the extent of that opening (note that the daylight/darkness shading is for the time I ran the search)."

    N0JK (EM28) reported on February 17:

    "A sporadic-E opening occurred on February 13 UTC. I logged W4IMD (EM84) on 50.313 MHz at 0141 UTC, the only Es station worked on 6 meters. Then, on 17 meters I worked KC5LT (EM86) at 0228 UTC on FT8 on Es. Sporadic-E openings are rare in February."

    Check out this video[2] about ViewProp, a promising new propagation analysis tool. There is also an email list[3]. - Thanks to The ARRL Contest Update.

    Reader "Neil J." shared this[4].

    The Las Cruces Sun News included this article[5]: "NMSU astronomy professors welcome new robotic system at Apache Point Observatory.

    "

    Sunspot numbers for February 10 - 16 were 78, 86, 54, 53, 72, 73, and 111, with a mean of 75.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 118, 113.1, 110.5, 105.4, 106.5, 114.3, and 102.9, with a mean of 110.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 20, 13, 15, 8, 5, and 9, with a mean of 13. Middle latitude A index was 12, 12, 10, 9, 6, 3, and 6, with a mean of 8.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://youtu.be/McUB2eY5atk
    [3] https://groups.io/g/viewprop
    [4] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/
    [5] https://bit.ly/33v3x4i
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Thu Mar 3 22:16:28 2022
    02/25/2022

    New sunspot groups appeared on February 17, 19, 20 and 21, but solar activity declined, even though sunspots were seen covering the sun every day.

    Average daily sunspot number declined 21 points from 75.3 last week to 54.3 in the current reporting week, February 17-23. Average daily solar flux was down nearly 15 points from 110.1 to 95.4. On Thursday, February 24 the decline in sunspot numbers continued to 23, 31.3 points below the average in the previous seven days.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 13 to 9.6, and average daily middle latitude A index was off by one point to 7.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 95 on February 25, 100 on February 26-27, 105 on February 28 through March 2, 110 on March 3-4, 108 on March 5-8, 105 on March 9-11, 103 on March 12-13, 100 on March 14, 98 on March 15-16, 102 on March 17-19, 104 on March 20-22, 108 on March 23-26, 110 on March 27, 115 on March 28-29, then 112 and 110 on March 30-31, then 108 on April 1-4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10 on February 25-26, 8 on February 27 through March 3, 10 on March 4-5, 8 on March 6, 5 on March 7-10, then 15, 12 and 10 on March 11-13, 5 on March 14-18, then 8, 5, 12, 18, 15 and 10 on March 19-24, 5 on March 25-29, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on March 30 through April 2, and 5 on April 3-6.

     

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, February 24, 2022 from OK1HH: "Solar activity gradually declined to very low levels with a slight chance of Class C flares. The solar wind speed and particle density fluctuate irregularly. The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm levels. Total solar radiation, accompanied by an irregular occurrence of enhanced geomagnetic activity caused a subsequent gradual decrease to overall below-average shortwave propagation conditions. A slight improvement can be expected in connection with seasonal changes with the approaching spring equinox."

     

    I regularly check propagation on ten meters using FT8, low power, and a modest full wave end fed wire antenna that is mostly indoors on the second floor of my home. Sometimes I will see my coverage on pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[1] concentrated in an area 2000-2300 miles away in Georgia and South Carolina, which is what I saw on February 24 around 1830 UTC. Twenty-four hours earlier I saw only two reception reports, none in the USA, with one station down in central Mexico and the other way down in Southern Argentina around 53 degrees south latitude. Very odd, but this being ten meters, soon the coverage changed, and I saw coverage across the East Coast.

    Using this same modest antenna on 40 meters, where it is one quarter wave long, at 0330 UTC on February 25 I see coverage all over the United States, but only one station reporting my signal in Europe, at -17 dB from IZ1CRR in JN35TD.

    On his QRZ.com page he says he is a shortwave listener, and not to call him on FT8 as he is listening only.

    Even if you are not an FT8 operator, you could use pskreporter.info[2] to discover propagation paths on different bands from your local area by searching for signals received from your grid square over the previous 15 minutes. This assumes there are other stations in your grid square active at the time.

    In grid square CN87 in my area, there seem to be active local stations on at all times on every band. You should probably look for stronger signals with positive signal levels if you plan to use CW or SSB.

     

    Solar eruption in the news: https://abc7.com/solar-eruption-sun-image-sunspot/11589207/[3]

     

    Article about instability of sunspots: https://bit.ly/3LXYEC4[4]

     

    A blog post about recent solar events: https://bit.ly/3t9ERHa[5]

     

    New Maui solar telescope: https://bit.ly/3ImQxNb[6]

     

    February 21 update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/wJaV5RnIEFE[7]

     

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

     

    Sunspot numbers for February 17 through 23, 2022 were 103, 53, 51, 49, 48, 38, and 38, with a mean of 54.3. 10.7 cm flux was 96.7, 93.3, 95.7, 93.3, 97.8, 95.3, and 95.5, with a mean of 95.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 9, 13, 12, 16, and 6, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, and 4, with a mean of 7.3.

     

     


    [1] http://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [2] http://pskreporter.info
    [3] https://abc7.com/solar-eruption-sun-image-sunspot/11589207/
    [4] https://bit.ly/3LXYEC4
    [5] https://bit.ly/3t9ERHa
    [6] https://bit.ly/3ImQxNb
    [7] https://youtu.be/wJaV5RnIEFE
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 4 20:16:46 2022
    03/04/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was weaker over the February 24 - March 2 reporting week, with the average daily sunspot number weakening from 54.3 to 44, but average daily solar flux rising slightly from 95.4 to 98.5.

    Geomagnetic numbers were moderate. Average daily planetary A index declined from 9.6 to 7.3, and middle latitude index from 7.3 to 5.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 110 on March 4; 108 on March 5 - 7; 106, 104, and 100 on March 8 - 10; 99 on March 11 - 13; 98 on March 14; 95 on March 15 - 16; 96, 97, 98, and 99 on March 17 - 20; 100 on March 21 - 22; 101 and 100 on March 23 - 24; 102 on March 25 - 26; 99 and 102 on March 27 - 28; 105 on March 29 - 31; 102 on April 1 - 2, 101 on April 3 - 4; 100 on April 5 - 6, and 99 on April 7 - 9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 4 - 6; 10 on March 7; 5 on March 8 - 10; 10, 12, 8, 5, and 8 on March 11 - 15; 5 on March 16 - 17; 10 on March 18; 15 on March 19 - 21; 7 on March 22 - 24; 5 and 10 on March 25 - 26; 12 on March 27 - 28; 8 on March 29 - 30; 12 on March 31; 15 on April 1 - 2; 5 on April 3 - 6, and 18, 15, and 8 on April 7 - 9.

    Here's the weekly commentary from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "The decline in solar activity in the second half of February might have surprised us if it were not for the information about the increased eruptive activity on the far side of the sun. The far-side sunspots images were taken mainly by the STEREO-A spacecraft, starting with the huge far-side explosion, when the spacecraft recorded a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME) appearing in the late hours of February 15. One day later, Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) gave us a better view of the explosion on the far side. SOHO coronagraphs have recorded the most dramatic CME in recent years. The activity observed beyond the eastern edge of the solar disk looked promising several times, but after the spot groups actually came out, we experienced only occasional Class C eruptions. Earth's magnetic field activity fluctuated irregularly, and attempts to predict further developments failed. Conditions for HF propagation began to improve in early March, but this was mainly due to seasonal changes."

    The article[1] "DKIST, Our Biggest Eye on the Sun, is Ready to Bring the Science," appears on the SyFy.com site.

    Also, check out[2] the solar orbiter from the European Space Agency.

    Jeff, WA2BOT, in Connecticut wrote on March 2:

    "Wow! 10 meters long path from East Coast USA to the Far East was amazing today! I noticed 10 meters was open to Europe at 1143 UTC when I first checked band conditions. Operating FT8 from FN32 between 1310 GMT and 1348 GMT, I worked BD7MXA, VR2XYL, VR2ZXP, VR2UBC, VR2XRW, VR2CH, JA7QVI and 12 other stations in Japan.

    Solar Cycle 25 is just getting started and 10 meters is Wow!"

    The subject of an article[3] on Science Alert is "Stunning Loops of Plasma Observed on the Sun May Not Be What We Thought."

    Here's a 2020 study[4] regarding the terminator event, "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude," on Springer Link.

    Now, the authors have announced[5] "The Termination Event has Arrived" - the terminator event between sunspot Cycles 24 and 25.

    Sunspot numbers for February 24 - March 2 were 23, 22, 22, 48, 65, 62, and 66, with a mean of 44. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 92.3, 96.2, 96.5, 96.9, 99, 99.3, and 109.5, with a mean of 98.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 3, 13, 8, 8, and 4, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 1, 11, 5, 6, and 3, with a mean of 5.6

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3ICJ5O6
    [2] https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Solar_Orbiter
    [3] https://bit.ly/35OpX0V
    [4] https://bit.ly/3KgQrqU
    [5] https://bit.ly/35KqfpJ
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 11 16:31:52 2022
    03/11/2022

    The K7RA Solar Update

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: On March 11 at 0431 UTC, Australia's Space Forecast Centre issued this warning: "A slow coronal mass ejection has been observed late on 10 March, and event modeling suggests arrival at the Earth late on 13 March. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 14 March 2022."

    We observed an active sun this week. Geomagnetic indicators peaked on Saturday, March 5, when Alaska's high latitude college A index reached 42.

    Again this week, sunspots covered the sun every day. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 44 to 87.4, and average daily solar flux went from 98.5 to 115.5. Geomagnetic indicators were also higher. Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.3 to 11.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 120 on March 11 - 12; 115 on March 13; 110 on March 14 - 16; 105 on March 17; 100 on March 18 - 21; then 101 and 103 on March 22 - 23; 104 on March 24 - 27; then 110, 115, and 116 on March 28 - 30; 118 on March 31 - April 1; 120 on April 2; 116 on April 3 - 4; then 115 and 112 on April 5 - 6; 110 on April 7 - 9, 108, 102, 98, and 99 on April 10 - 13, and 100 on April 14 - 17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 11; 5 on March 12 - 13; 10, 18, 15, 5, and 8 on March 14 - 18; then 12 on March 19 - 20 15 on March 21 7 on March 22 - 24; then 5, 10, and 8 on March 25 - 27; 5 on March 28 - 29; then 10, 12, 25, 20, and 10 on March 30 - April 3; 5 on April 4 - 6; then 15, 20, and 12 on April 7 - 9; 5 on April 10 - 13; 8 on April 14, and 10 on April 15 - 16.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, wrote, "The power density of solar radio noise at a wavelength of 10.7 centimeters - more briefly referred to as "solar flux" - remains above 110 for a week. Because we see two more active areas beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk (thanks to the STEREO Ahead satellite), solar flux should stay that way for another week.

    "The concurrence of increased solar activity with seasonal changes during the approaching equinox results in improved conditions for short-wave ionospheric propagation.

    "Occasional irregular occurrences of a slight increase in geomagnetic activity (as was the case on March 5 - 6) cause only a slight deterioration. Possible recurrent disturbance is expected until the beginning of April, probably already in its first days."

    Russ Hunt, WQ3X, wrote on March 4: "Yesterday I heard WA2BOT on 10 meter FT8 working DX on the long path and aimed my beam due south. In just over a half hour's time I worked 33 JAs, two DUs, and VR2XYL. I had a pileup six deep at times while using 250 W and a five-element Yagi at 50 feet. It was probably the most exciting time I've had in the last 20 years. Today I worked two more VR2s and three JAs, also long path, just after sunrise."

    A few hours later he wrote, "During the middle of the day we get some VK/ZLs starting around 3 PM local time. But try sunrise and sunset and you will find a lot of DX.

    "I hear the 6s and 7s working a lot of Asia in the evening. Here we get EU, Africa, and the Middle East in the mornings. I've done WAC about four or five times a week, but now running out of new stations to work."

    Robert Strickland, KE2WY, asked about a good source for the latest daily sunspot numbers, and I sent him to this site[1].

    On March 10, N9II sent some observations of last week's ARRL International DX Contest (SSB). "I operated single band 15 meters in the ARRL DX contest but made a few QSOs on other bands. Twenty was open well to Africa and south in the 0100 UTC hour Saturday, some very loud Caribbean signals. Ten was open for many hours to the south. Some booming signals even from low-power stations in Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos, as well as many high-power stations such as J68HZ on St Lucia, PJ4G on Bonaire, and PJ2T on Curacao.

    "On 15, a disturbance and slightly low solar flux made for some challenging conditions to Asia and northern Europe.

    "Saturday evening the disturbance rendered Japan nearly completely closed, with Sunday evening conditions fair with most signals less than S-9.

    "I made 600 15-meter QSOs, working 86 DXCC entities.

    "On 10 CW starting at 1414 UTC on March 8, I worked three new ones in a row: 7Q6M in Malawi, 5X1NA in Uganda, and JY5HX in Jordan.

    "Then on 10 SSB, Dov, 4Z4DX, in Israel. On 10 CW, V26K Antigua, and OA1F Peru.

    "Later on 17 CW V4/G0TLE St. Kitts, then topping off with E51BQ South Cook Islands on 10 SSB at 2325 UTC.

    "On 12 meter CW on March 9 at 1550 UTC I worked V26K. I called CQ on 10 SSB at 1557 UTC and was called by Spain, then Francisco, TT8FC, in Chad, ZS1PPY in South Africa, then 3B8HE in Mauritius! March 10, featured excellent high-band propagation with the solar flux climbing to 127. I heard Indonesia peaking at S-8 on 15 SSB at 1340 UTC, then worked 4L1AN in Georgia at 1344 UTC (new) and VU2DSI India at 1353 UTC.

    "Turning to 10 SSB, I found Selki, S01WS, Western Sahara, and CU1EZ in the Azores for #100 on 10 SSB. Then at 1551 UTC for the next hour, 10 blew wide open to Europe starting with Bulgaria, Italy, and Hungary.

    "Several stations with simple end-fed wires were S-9, and the loudest signals were S-9 + 20 dB or a bit stronger. This was one of the best openings all winter, but others were more widespread farther north."

    Here is an email list[2] for operators of, or anyone interested in, HF beacons.

    The vernal equinox arrives in just over a week from now, at 1533 UTC on Sunday, March 20. That's when Earth will be bathed in an equal amount of solar radiation over both southern and northern hemispheres - good for HF propagation. It is the first day of spring in the northern hemisphere, and the first day of fall in the southern.

    Sunspot numbers for March 3 - 9 were 92, 77, 95, 82, 84, 93, and 89, with a mean of 87.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 110.9, 113.1, 120.1, 115.7, 118.3, 115.3, and 114.8, with a mean of 115.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 27, 18, 9, 6, and 5, with a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 7, 19, 13, 7, 5, and 4, with a mean of 8.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[3] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[4] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[5] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[6] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[7] website.

    Instructions[8] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[9] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
    [2] https://www.freelists.org/webpage/hfbeacons
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 18 16:49:21 2022
    03/18/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports: We saw plenty of sunspot activity this week, along with numerous solar flares. A confounding indicator was a higher average solar flux but lower average sunspot numbers. We expect to see these parameters track together, but that isn't always the case.

    The average daily sunspot number went from 87.4 last week to 74.6 in the latest reporting period, March 10 - 16.

    The average daily solar flux increased from 115.5 to 119.

    A new sunspot group appeared on March 12, another on March 13, and two more on March 14. The total sunspot area (expressed in millionths of the solar disc) declined throughout the week, starting at 1,170 on March 10, then 1,080, 1,040, 940, 670, 490, and 290. So, the decline continued even through days that revealed new sunspots.

    March 13 had the greatest geomagnetic disturbance, with the middle latitude A index at 30, the planetary A index at 40, and Alaska's college A index at 65. The A index is calculated from the K index, updated every 3 hours. In Alaska, the K was 0 in the first three readings, at 0000, 0300, and 0600 UTC, before jumping dramatically to 5, 7, 7, and 5 for the rest of the day. The K index is logarithmic, and 7 is a very big number, indicating a geomagnetic storm.

    The solar flux prediction peaks at 125 on April 6 - 8, but starting today, the predicted flux is 108 on March 18 - 19; 95 on March 20 - 26; 100 on March 27 - 28; 110 on March 29 - 30; 115 on March 31; then 120, 115, and 120 on April 1 - 3; 115 on April 4 - 5; 125 on April 6 - 8; 120 on April 9 - 11; 115 on April 12 - 14; 110 on April 15 - 17; 100 on April 18; then 95 on April 19 - 22, and 100 on April 23 - 24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on March 18 - 19; then 15, 12, and 8 on March 20 - 22; 5 on March 23 - 25; 10 and 8 on March 26 - 27; 5 on March 28 - 30; 10, 25, 15, and 8 on March 31 - April 3; 5 on April 4 - 15; 12 on April 16 - 17; 8 on April 18; then 5 on April 19 - 21, and 10 and 8 on April 22 - 23.

    The vernal equinox will occur at 1533 UTC on Sunday, March 20 - a good sign for HF propagation as we move from winter to spring conditions in the Northern Hemisphere.

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Undoubtedly, the most dramatic phenomenon of the past 7 days was the arrival of a CME [coronal mass ejection] on March 13, which broke away from the sun on March 10 - 11. It caused a medium [G2] geomagnetic storm. In its positive phase, [MUF] values increased during the UTC afternoon until evening, while the overall ionospheric propagation of decameter waves improved overall. In the negative phase that followed on March 14 - 15, they deteriorated significantly. A return to normal has been observed since March 16.

    "A CME could do more than just ignite the bright aurora borealis. It also lowered the level of cosmic rays. A neutron monitor at the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland, saw a sharp decline in cosmic rays shortly after the CME arrived. It's called the 'Forbush Decline,' named after the American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a cloud of coronal matter pushes galactic cosmic rays away from our planet. The cosmic rays fell sharply on March 13, then rose sharply at noon on March 14, then fell sharply again. We attribute this fluctuation to the more complex structure of the CME cloud. The cosmic rays remained depressed for 2, partly to 4, days after the arrival of the CME.

    "The consequences of the coming of a CME in Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere were now, near the vernal equinox, more pronounced than they would have been at any other time of year."

    I (K7RA) was experimenting with FT8 and PSKreporter[1] on Friday, March 11, on 10 meters and noticed at 2145 UTC that my low-power signal (with a very modest antenna) was heard over a narrow arc running from northern Virginia and central Texas, plus reports from two stations in New Zealand and several in South America. Fifteen minutes later, the only report was from K1HTV in Virginia. By 2224 UTC, the only reports were from two local western Washington stations, at 4 and 54 miles away.

    On March 15, using the same setup on 10 meters at 1651 UTC, the only station outside the local area hearing me was XE1ACA, 2,344 miles away.

    Often when coverage is marginal on 10 meters, 12 meters will be open.

    At 1730 UTC on 12 meters, I was heard over a broad arc of stations 1,800 - 2,400 miles away, running from New Hampshire to south Texas, plus XE2BCS and XE1GK at 1,757 and 2,003 miles, and NH6Y in Hawaii at 2,654 miles. That arc of coverage was only 600 miles wide.

    On March 14, VE1VDM reported unstable 10-meter conditions. "As of 1600 UTC [1 PM local] today, I have not had one RBN report on 28.173 MHz, nor one WSPR report on 28.126.130 MHz," he said. "The band has really tanked here in Nova Scotia."

    Jon Jones, N0JK, reported on March 13:

    "Larry, N0LL (EM09), decoded a number of South American stations on 50.313 MHz FT8 around 0040 UTC March 13. These included CE3SX (FF46), CE0YHF/CE3, CE2SV, and LU5FF. Larry was away from the radio when this occurred. [I] suspect an Es link to TEP [transequatorial propagation]. He then worked XE2TT (DL44) on Es at 0117 UTC. I monitored during this time frame. No South [American stations were contacted], but [I] did decode K3VN (EL98) around 0050 UTC on Es."

    Also from Jon on the same day:

    "A rare March sporadic-E opening on 6 meters [occurred on] the afternoon of March 11, from Kansas to W1, W2, W3, and W8.

    "Here in Lawrence, I worked K3ISH (FN21) and KE8FD (EN80) on 50.313 MHz FT8 around 2100 UTC, [and copied] a few others.

    "WQ0P (EM19) was in a better spot for it. He worked W1, W2, W3, W4, and W8.

    "No rare DX, but any sporadic-E opening in March is noteworthy. The month of March has the lowest occurrence of sporadic E of any month of the year (see: www.qsl.net/pjdyer[2]).

    "If the Es cloud had been located to the southeast [there could have been] a potential link-up with afternoon TEP. [I] did not see anyone working South America."

    A tribute[3] to Maunder - of Maunder Minimum fame - and his wife, "Astronomer couple honoured with English Heritage blue plaque," appeared in the UK's Oxford Mail.

    David Moore sent this obituary[4] of pioneering astronomer Eugene Parker - "Eugene Parker, astrophysicist namesake of NASA's Parker Solar Probe, dies at 94" - which appeared in Space.com[5].

    Check out the latest video[6] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

    Sunspot numbers for March 10 - 16 were 90, 81, 93, 64, 82, 71, and 41, with a mean of 74.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 127.1, 126.5, 124.7, 122.9, 114.9, 110.4, and 106.6, with a mean of 119. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 20, 13, 40, 14, 7, and 5, with a mean of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 15, 7, 30, 13, 5, and 3, with a mean of 11.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[9] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

    ARRL member Tad Cook, K7RA, has been writing the weekly ARRL Propagation Bulletins since 1991. Share[13] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://pskreporter.info
    [2] https://www.qsl.net/pjdyer
    [3] https://bit.ly/3ihvjVO
    [4] https://www.space.com/eugene-parker-solar-probe-scientist-dead
    [5] http://www.space.com
    [6] https://youtu.be/1VsmS6xl34s
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 1 13:23:06 2022
    04/01/2022

    Many solar flares and CMEs occurred over the reporting week (March 24-30) but with glancing blows and near misses, it wasn't reflected in the geomagnetic indicators until Thursday, the last day in March.

    The Planetary A index reached a high for the reporting week of 19 on March 27. Average daily planetary A index rose by a modest amount from 6.3 to 10.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 33.4 to 80.1, while solar flux went from 99.9 to 132.7.

    The rising solar activity brought us a tremendous amount of 10 meter coverage. Every day I have received reports from all over North America from operators hearing my K7RA/B propagation beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

    Predicted solar flux is 150, 145, and 130 on April 1-3, 115 on April 4-5,  110 on April 6-8, then 118, 115, and 110 on April 9-11, 105 on April 12-14, 108 on April 15, 105 on April 16-19, 110 on April 20-21, 115 on April 22, 125 on April 23-26, then 123, 118 and 118 on April 27-29, then 108 on April 30 through May 2, 112 on May 3, 115 on May 4-6, and 112 on May 4, then dropping to 105 through the middle of May.

    The predicted planetary A index is 32, 10, 15 and 10 on April 1-4, 819, on April 5-6, 5 on April 7-19, 10 on April 20-21, then 5, 15 and 10 on April 22-24, then 5 on April 25-29, 12 and 8 on April 30 and May 1, and 5 0n May 2-15. 

     

    A report from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:  "We have a week of somewhat wilder development behind us. Its first indication were two sunspot groups on the northeastern limb of the solar disc on March 24. The second of them, region 2976 was larger.

    "Region 2975 had a more complex magnetic structure and grew gradually. A proton solar flare was observed on March 28 at 1129 UTC, accompanied by a significant increase in proton levels. And above all, it was followed by a CME heading to Earth!

    "Exactly as predicted, the arrival of the CME caused a geomagnetic disturbance on March 31. Its positive phase of development was accompanied, especially in the UTC morning hours, by a significant improvement in the shortwave propagation conditions on a global scale.

    "Another solar flare was observed in the same area on March 30 with a maximum at 1737 UTC. Although X-ray levels rose more than on March 28, followed by CME again (albeit weaker, at 1823 UT),  there is no expectation that it would be followed by a similar increase in geomagnetic activity."

     

    Angel Santana, WP3GW, of Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico wrote: "Conditions were decent for the contest last weekend. Ten meters was as good as last October but propagation is still improving, as stations were as high at 28.6 MHz, but on a great season stations would be heard beyond 29 MHz. With the new radios that have spectrum analyzers you can view this. On Sunday at 1420 UTC contacted a few European stations and even a 4X.

    When I went to 15/20 meters, I had 85 percent success in contacting the stations. Overall, I worked 324 stations and 64 DXCC entities.

    "And there are a few stations from Spain on 10 meters at 2000 UTC, which is their local 10 PM. Really big signals. Cycle 25 is definitely rising."

      

    LA4LN reports 6 meter TEP activity: "I see that stations in southern Europe are reporting contacts with southern Africa and South America, across the magnetic equator.

    "Likewise,US stations are making TEP contacts with stations in South America across the magnetic equator, with no F2 propagation possible on 50 MHz at this time, with an insufficient SFI (Solar Flux Index) for 50 MHz F2 propagation.

    Seeing more TEP 'heard & worked' between southern Europe and southern Africa on the 6 meters band, across the magnetic equator via Dxmaps.com." 

    I often see references to the "magnetic equator" but did not know what it was. This gives a good explanation: https://bit.ly/38nV2u1[1]

     

    More from LA4LN: "In last week's bulletin you comments from N0JK speculating about the first F2 openings on 50 MHz in the Solar Cycle 25.

    "It must be mentioned that the SFI has been near 100 (he reported 95), and this is most likely too low SFI to cause F2 propagation on 50 MHz, according to my experience.

    "Instead, during the last few weeks I've seen numerous reports of TEP (Trans Equatorial Propagation) on 50 MHz, with radio amateurs in mainly the southern states of USA working South America - and with radio amateurs in southern Europe working southern Africa and South America.

    "It is important to note that the TEP is aligned over the magnetic equator on Earth (not aligned over the geographic equator). TEP is well described in the ARRL literature."

     

    We normally get our 10.7 cm solar flux staight from the source, the DRAO observatory in Penticton, British Columbia: https://bit.ly/3Dur7f0[2]. But since March 18, there has been no new data, so we rely on NOAA as a secondary source, which is why we have recently presented solar flux numbers that are not resolved to 0.1 but instead are from this source, which is also our source for daily sunspot numbers: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt[3]. DRAO Penticton has not answered any e-mail inquiries or phone calls, so we wait.

     

    Some of the interesting articles and images this week:

    -- https://bit.ly/3tWNqa0[4]

    --https://bit.ly/3v4D8Ej[5]

    --https://bit.ly/3LvufKd[6]

    --https://bit.ly/3LCGxRn[7]

      

    NN4X sent a Pskreporter map showing his 10 meter signal at 1710 UTC on March 29 being received all around the world, including South Africa, Europe, Southeast Asia, South America and across North America. That was just one of many, many 10 meter reports this week.

     

    An exciting new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:  https://youtu.be/SVbKQmjkqTc[8]

      

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14].

    Sunspot numbers for March 24 through 30, 2022 were 44, 50, 48, 97, 125, 124, and 73, with a mean of 80.1.. 10.7 cm flux was 112, 112, 119, 130, 156, 149, and 151, with a mean of 132.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 10, 7, 18, 10, 8, and 8, with a mean of 10. Middle latitude A index was 6, 3, 6, 11, 4, 7, and 6, with a mean of 8.1.


    [1] https://bit.ly/38nV2u1
    [2] https://bit.ly/3Dur7f0
    [3] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
    [4] https://bit.ly/3tWNqa0
    [5] https://bit.ly/3v4D8Ej
    [6] https://bit.ly/3LvufKd
    [7] https://bit.ly/3LCGxRn
    [8] https://youtu.be/SVbKQmjkqTc
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Tue Apr 19 19:15:57 2022
    04/08/2022

    Lots of solar activity livened up HF conditions over the past reporting week, March 31 to April 6. Average daily sunspot number rose from 90.1 to 94.6, and daily solar flux from 132.7 to 135.3.

    It looks like solar flux may peak this month at 140 on April 24-28.

    Since March 18 we were unable to get daily solar flux from the observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, so for a couple of weeks we relied on secondary sources which were all in whole numbers, instead of resolving to 0.1. Multiple inquiries to the observatory led nowhere, but now the data is back online at https://bit.ly/3LDlgqC[1] .

    I had to fudge the flux value for March 31, because the value of 239.5 was obviously an error, probably due to a CME overwhelming the 10.7 cm receiver at the observatory, so I averaged the morning and afternoon readings to 149.3. The official daily flux value is always from the 2000 UTC local noon reading.

    Geomagnetic conditions were quite active on March 31 through April 2. Average daily planetary A index for the week increased from 10 to 14.4, and middle latitude A index from 8.1 to 10.9.

    Spaceweather.com reported 146 solar flares over the month of March and predicts even more for April. They also report that cycle 25 is progressing faster and stronger than earlier predictions. A new sunspot group appeared on March 31, two more on April 1, another on April 2 and one more on April 3, and one more on April 5.

    The predicted solar flux is 108 on April 8-9, 105 on April 10-11, 100 on April 12-14, then 110, 115 and 120 on April 15-17, 125 on April 18-19, 130 on April 20-23, 140 on April 24-28, 135 on April 29-30, 130 on May 1, 120 on May 2-3, 125 on May 4-5, 120 on May 6, 115 on May 7-8, 110 on May 8-9, 115 on May 11, and 120 on May 12-14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 8-11, 5 on April 12-19, 10 on April 20-21, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on April 22-25, 5 on April 26-28, then 18, 12, 10 and 8 on April 29 through May 2, 5 on May 3-7, then 12 and 10 on May 8-9, and 5 on May 10-16.

    Solar wind in the news: https://bit.ly/3rdXycD[2]

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH reports: "Total solar activity has been declining. Recent CMEs generated by solar flares have usually not been headed to Earth. On April 6, the solar wind was expected to intensify from a CME generated by a filament eruption on April 3rd, but only a small portion of the solar plasma cloud reached Earth.

    "The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled to active until April 2 and partly on April 4 and 7. The increased geomagnetic activity on the night of April 3 to 4 worsened diurnal short wave propagation conditions on April 4. Thereafter, despite the continuing decline in solar activity, shortwave propagation conditions improved.

    "In further development, we first expect a decline in solar activity. Its growth in the second half of the month will again cause an improvement of shortwave propagation. However, the development will be slightly irregular."

    Another informative video forecast from WX6SWW, Dr. Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/SxU6Lv30DuQ[3]

    WB8VLC reports from Oregon: "Another fun week on 10 meters but only SSB/CW and not much FM activity. However, the SSB/CW activity was strong with signals to South Africa, Taiwan, Philippines, Norfolk Island and Australia.

    It is interesting that I have not heard any European stations during any morning or afternoon openings to the east, just South Africa."

    A small portion of his log:

    April 3 it was New Zealand in the morning and Australia at night, followed by China and Philippines 

    2344 UTC   N7ET/DU7  28.014  CW 599 Philippines

    2340 UTC   BV1EL     28.010  CW 599 Taiwan

    2311 UTC   VK3NX    28.015  CW 599 Australia

    1900 UTC   ZS3Y      28.373  SSB 55 South Africa

    K5JRN reports on 6 meters from Austin, Texas: "Interesting conditions observed here on April 4 and 6. Using FT8 on 6 meters on 4/4/22, I worked HK3X (FJ24) in Columbia and HC1MD/2 (EI97) in Ecuador while running 30 W to an indoor dipole wrapped around a couple of bamboo tomato stakes glued end to end.

    "That same combo helped me snag HC2DR (FI07) in Ecuador today (4/6). My signals were not strong, ranging from -13 to -24 in Columbia and Ecuador. I've also been heard in Argentina and have copied several Argentinian hams, including LU9AEA (GF05), but have not yet worked an Argentinian on 6.

    "Today, I've also been heard in Uruguay by CX7CO (GF15) but have not heard any CX stations yet. Indeed, I'm not receiving anyone else on 6 except a few locals and those South American stations. The north-south paths seem like narrow pipelines."

    Speaking of "narrow pipelines," from here in the northwest I often see this on 10 and 12 meters using FT8. Monitoring pskreporter.info[4], on April 7 at 1630 UTC on 12 meters my signal was only reported by stations on the East Coast over a narrow band, all from 2296-2359 miles from me, at first only by many stations in Virginia and North Carolina, but not South Carolina.

    Later at 1645 UTC coverage expanded to Florida and Georgia, but still within that narrow mileage limit. Later by 1720 UTC reports had spread to New York, Georgia and  Florida, and the mileage range expanded slightly to 2119-2489 miles. But there was one major exception, HK3A in Bogota, Columbia at 4091 miles.

    The night before (local time) at 0220 UTC on 17 meters I was copied only into a specific area about 2300 miles away in Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, then suddenly at 0232 UTC the coverage expanded to California, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, and Florida.  All of this with low power and a crude end-fed indoor antenna, fed with an UnUn and autotuner.

    Thanks to KA7F for this link: https://bit.ly/3rbkUj8[5]

    Cycle 25's increasing activity is drawing the attention of the media. In this instance it is KTAR in Arizona: https://bit.ly/3x9cv3p[6]

    And more from Southgate Amateur Radio: https://bit.ly/38BbEOW[7]

    Fascinating solar phenomena: https://bit.ly/3ra65NV[8]

    EarthSky reports an exciting week for solar observers: https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-week-of-march-28-to-april-3/[9]

     N0JK reports: "On Saturday April 2, 2022, NOLL (EM09) I copied LU5VV, CE2SV, LU1WFU and PV8DX on 50.313 MHz FT8 TEP. I copied CE2SV on TEP and KOSIX (EN35) calling PY5CC on 50.313 MHz Es at 2109 UTC."

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13]. More useful information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15].

    Sunspot numbers for March 31 through April 6, 2022, were 84, 109, 118, 129, 86, 75, and 61, with a mean of 94.6. 10.7 cm flux was 149,3, 146.6, 143.3, 140.2, 128, 122.4, and 117, with a mean of 135.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 17, 22, 10, 11, 6, and 8, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 12, 19, 7, 8, 6, and 6, with a mean of 10.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3LDlgqC
    [2] https://bit.ly/3rdXycD
    [3] https://youtu.be/SxU6Lv30DuQ
    [4] http://pskreporter.info
    [5] https://bit.ly/3rbkUj8
    [6] https://bit.ly/3x9cv3p
    [7] https://bit.ly/38BbEOW
    [8] https://bit.ly/3ra65NV
    [9] https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-week-of-march-28-to-april-3/
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Thu May 12 20:12:33 2022
    05/06/2022

    www.spaceweather.com[1] reported on May 4 at 0859 UTC that an M5 solar flare erupted from sunspot group AR3004, causing a shortwave radio

    blackout over the Middle East and Africa.

    Please see https://bit.ly/3vKzelk[2]

    A recent flare update:

    https://bit.ly/3OXvuo8[3]

    Solar activity was lower this week, even though we could see
    sunspots every day.

    Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 109.3 to 68.6, while
    average daily solar flux went from 156 to 120.

    Average daily geomagnetic indices were only slightly higher, with
    average planetary A index changing from 9.1 to 10.7, and middle
    latitude A index from 8 to 9.3.

    Predicted solar flux looks low for the next month, even dipping
    below 100 in early June. In fact, from Wednesday to Thursday the
    predicted solar flux for the first week of the forecast dropped
    dramatically.

    For a comparison, see this week's ARRL Letter at, http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2022-05-05[4] .

    Predicted values are 118 on May 6-8, then 115, 110 and 112 on May
    9-11, then 115, 115 and 120 on May 12-14, 125 on May 15-18, 127 on
    May 19-20, then 130, 128, 125, and 122 on May 21-24, 118 on May
    25-26, then 114 and 110 on May 27-28, 105 on May 29-31, then 102 and
    100 on June 1-2, 97 on June 3-5, then 99, 102 and 108 on June 6-8,
    then 115 on June 9, 120 on June 10, and 125 on June 11-14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 6, 8 on May 7-8, 5 on May
    9-12, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 13-15, 5 on May 16-19, then 12 and 8
    on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, then 8,
    15 and 8 on May 28-30, then 5 on May 31 through June 8, then 8, 1,
    and 8 on June 9-11.

    These predictions are from forecasters Housseal and Dethlefsen of
    the USAF 557th Weather Wing.

    Recent flare activity in the news:

    https://bit.ly/39vn8Uq[5]

    https://bit.ly/38YBfRO[6]

    https://bit.ly/3P0IfOX[7]

    https://bit.ly/3ydNeFM[8]

    https://bit.ly/3FhULFc[9]

    Thanks to KA3JAW for this story:

    https://bit.ly/3kLmchd[10]

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere from OK1HH:

    "We have seen more of large solar flares this year, but it was
    usually by night in Europe. On April 30, the first major flare
    finally occurred during the day, thanks to which we were able to
    observe the ShortWave Fadeout (SWF) in the western part of the Old
    World. Solar X-rays caused abnormally high ionization in the
    ionospheric D region, where attenuation increased significantly. Our
    shortwave receivers fell silent at 1337 UTC.

    "The solar flare peaked at 1347 UTC, ending at 1352 UTC. Only then
    could the attenuation in the ionospheric D region begin to decline
    and signals other than those coming via ground wave gradually
    appeared. Solar activity began to rise again mainly due to active
    area No. 3004, which emerged on May 2, and grew rapidly.

    "Its magnetic structure became more complex with increased energy,
    with significant eruptions up to several times a day. In addition,
    they were often accompanied by type IV radio noise bursts, which
    indicated that the solar plasma cloud had left the Sun. As Group
    3004 is now facing approximately toward us, we can expect at least
    one of the clouds to hit Earth, causing a disturbance. Perhaps we
    will see further improvement in the shortwave propagation
    conditions, during the possible positive phase of its development."

    KA3JAW sent this report about signals heard on the 8 meter band:

    "On Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607-1632 UTC I received
    WM2XEJ in Grid Square EM82 calling CQ using digital mode FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E.
    Distance was 670 miles (1078 km), with an azimuth of 220 degrees.

    "The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700
    MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.

    "Licensed users are Fixed, Mobile and Earth exploration-satellite
    service.

    "WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated
    by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia. Tom is authorized to
    operate at 400 watts of Effective Radiated Power (ERP) using CW,
    SSB, digital modes FT4, FT8, WSPR, and Q65.

    "Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna giving
    about 300 watts of ERP."

    Amateur radio has 8 meter allocations in the UK, Slovenia, Denmark,
    and South Africa.

    Here is a blog devoted to 8 meters:

    https://ei7gl.blogspot.com/p/40-mhz.html[11] .

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[12] .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16]. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[17].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

    Sunspot numbers for April 28 through May 4, 2022 were 118, 90, 50,
    36, 69, 53, and 64, with a mean of 68.6. 10.7 cm flux was 132.2,
    123.5, 119.7, 109, 111.9, 113.8, and 130.1, with a mean of 120.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 15, 18, 9, 6, 7, and 6, with
    a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 11, 10, 16, 9, 6, 7, and
    6, with a mean of 9.3.

     


    [1] https://www.spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/3vKzelk
    [3] https://bit.ly/3OXvuo8
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2022-05-05
    [5] https://bit.ly/39vn8Uq
    [6] https://bit.ly/38YBfRO
    [7] https://bit.ly/3P0IfOX
    [8] https://bit.ly/3ydNeFM
    [9] https://bit.ly/3FhULFc
    [10] https://bit.ly/3kLmchd
    [11] https://ei7gl.blogspot.com/p/40-mhz.html
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [17] http://k9la.us/
    [18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat May 14 14:17:06 2022
    05/14/2022

    We saw some evidence of sporadic-e propagation this week on 6 and 10 meters, always surprising and exciting.

    Solar activity was about the same as last week, at least going by the numbers.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose slightly from 68.6 to 74.4, while average daily solar flux only budged from 120 to 120.3.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index shifting from 10.7 to 5, and average middle latitude numbers from 9.3 to 4.6. We listed the middle latitude A index on May 6 as 2, but that number is my own estimate. At the end of that day the last K index reading was not reported, and since the A index for the day is calculated from all the K index readings, there was no official middle latitude A index reported, so I came up with my own estimate based on available data.

    Thursday's outlook for solar flux is more optimistic than last week's prediction, with no values below 100. Expected flux values are 135 on May 13-16, then 132, 128, 126, and 120 on May 17-20, then 118, 120, 124 and 121 on May 21-24, 118 on May 25-27, 116 on May 28-31, 118 on June 1-5, then 116 and 118 on June 6-7, 120 on June 8-9, 122 on June 10-14, 118 on June 15-17, then 120, 124 and 121 on June 18-20.

    Planetary A index is predicted at 8 on May 13, 12 on May 14-15, then 14 and 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-19, then 12 and 8 on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, 8 on May 28, and 5 on May 29 through June 15, a nice long quiet spell of geomagnetic stability for more than 2 weeks.

    Thursday's forecast was prepared by Trost and Housseal of the U.S. Air Force.

    OK1HH wrote: "Solar flares continue to occur, and some of them are throwing several overlapping CMEs into space. The amount of CMEs leaving the sun is large enough to make it difficult to unravel their different shapes and trajectories, which reduces the reliability of predictions. Nevertheless, the geomagnetic activity is mostly low, which can be explained by the fact that the magnetic fields above the solar surface are mostly closed.

    "An intense solar flare of class X1.5 was observed on May 10 at 1355 UT in the active region 3006 with a complex magnetic structure. Radiation from the flare ionized the Earth's atmosphere and caused a shortwave radio outage around the Atlantic Ocean, more specifically from Central Europe to the east coast of the United States (see Dellinger effect). Radio transmissions at frequencies below 30 MHz were attenuated for more than an hour after the eruption. 

    "Another M-flare on the afternoon of May 11 was a proton flare.

    "Another CME on May 11 came from the sunspots on the far side - one just behind the eastern limb of the Sun and the other just behind the western limb. We do not expect the solar wind around the Earth to intensify again."

    The Dellinger effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_ionospheric_disturbance[1]

    Here is a blackout map for the above mentioned May 10 event: https://bit.ly/3w7jQjg[2]

    More on this event:

    https://bit.ly/3N98Nf0[3]

    https://bit.ly/3NgULrX[4]

    Mystery of the bright spots: https://bit.ly/3wbiBQa[5]

    WA6LIE wrote in a message titled "TEP to Fiji": "Yesterday evening March 10 just after 0600 UTC I was getting ready to go to bed and saw 3D2AG calling CQ on 6 meter FT8. I gave him a call and we made a QSO.

    "He was decoded here in Salinas, California. CM96 for an hour and a half with no takers. Looks like the Magic band is starting to play!

    "I will go back to my saying: Gotta be in the right place at the right
    time and get lucky!  Heads up!"

    K5JRN wrote: "Today (05/07/2022) at 1601 UTC, I caught a brief 2-meter E-skip opening and worked W4AS in EL95, using FT8, 25 Watts, and an indoor mobile whip antenna. It was an 1100-mile hop from EM10, in Austin, TX, to the Miami, FL area. He was +04 here and I was -24 there, no doubt because of my low power and cross-polarization. It was a new grid for me on 2, and I'm happy to have it."

    A massive solar flare, almost: https://bit.ly/3Maqvij[6]

    Solar cycle progress update from NOAA: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
    [7]
    Real time geomagnetic updates: https://www.solarham.net/kp.htm[8]

    The latest Space Weather from Dr. Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/PUArR1QXTAg [9]
    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

    Sunspot numbers for May 5 through 11, 2022 were 85, 64, 66, 89, 71, 62, and 84, with a mean of 74.4. 10.7 cm flux was 119.9, 119.2, 118.1, 119.2, 117, 115.8, and 132.9, with a mean of 120.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 6, 8, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 4, 2, 4, 7, 8, 2, and 5, with a mean of 4.6.

     


    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_ionospheric_disturbance
    [2] https://bit.ly/3w7jQjg
    [3] https://bit.ly/3N98Nf0
    [4] https://bit.ly/3NgULrX
    [5] https://bit.ly/3wbiBQa
    [6] https://bit.ly/3Maqvij
    [7] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
    [8] https://www.solarham.net/kp.htm
    [9] https://youtu.be/PUArR1QXTAg
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 20 15:36:11 2022
    05/20/2022

     Solar activity was up, up, up this week, with average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 74.4 to 134.1, and average daily solar flux from 120.3 to 157.3.

    To get some perspective, I averaged the weekly averages for sunspot number and solar flux from this bulletin and the previous three, then compared them to the bulletins from one year earlier.

    A year ago, the averages for 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletins ARLP017 through ARLP020 were 28.9 for sunspot numbers and 75.9 for solar flux.  A year later, the averages are 96.6 for sunspot numbers and 138.4 for solar flux.

    This documents a substantial increase in solar activity and is another illustration of how this cycle is progressing faster than the official cycle prediction by the experts. 

    Geomagnetic indicators were higher this week. Average daily planetary A index went from 5 to 9, while middle latitude A index increased from 4.6 to 9.6, compared to the previous reporting period, which always runs from Thursday through the following Wednesday. 

    Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday that big sunspot AR3014 doubled in size, and presented this movie from NASA, showing 24 hours of activity: 

    https://bit.ly/3G1m2ff[1] 

    On Thursday, Spaceweather.com presented this movie of a massive jet of plasma projecting from our Sun's southwestern limb: 

    https://bit.ly/3sOEdQe[2] 

    Predicted solar flux in Thursday's prediction begins about 8 points lower than the Wednesday forecast, at 172 on May 20, 170 on May 21-24, then a decline from 168, 166, 150, 136, and 138 on May 25-29, then the predicted values revert back to the Wednesday forecast at 140 on May 30-31, 143 on June 1-3, 140 and 136 on June 4-5, 138 on June 6-7, then 140 and 150 on June 8-9, 154 on June 10-12, 152 on June 13-14, then 150 and 148 on June 15-16, 140 on June 17-18, 145 on June 19, 142 on June 20-21, then 138 on June 22 and 136 on June 23-24. 

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on May 20, 8 on May 21-22, 5 on May 23-26, 15 and 8 on May 27-28, 5 on May 29 through June 9, 8 on June 10, 14 on June 11-12, 8 and 5 on June 13-14, 8 on June 15-16, 5 on June 17-19, 18 on June 20, then 15 on June 21-23, 8 on June 24, and 5 for at least the following ten days. 

    The above predictions are from Housseal and Levine of the 557th USAF Weather wing. 

    The Sun busts out a trio of flares: 

    https://bit.ly/3yOhNlF[3] 

    OK1HH wrote: 

    "In the last seven days, solar activity has risen monotonously." 

    (I thought F.K. Janda's use of the word "monotonously" must be a mistranslation, but now I am not so sure. I thought perhaps he meant "monstrously." -K7RA) 

    "Moderate flares have been observed almost daily. Highest level X-rays belonged to an X1.5 class eruption, start 1350 UTC, peak 1355 UTC, end time 1359 UTC on May 10th from NOAA AR 3006 in the southwest quadrant, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. 

    "During the daytime, moderate flares often caused a Short-Wave Fadeout. AR 3007 and AR 3014 also evolved into the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. 

    "No fibrous eruption was observed in any of the fibers on the solar disc. Observed coronal holes were relatively small, for this reason too, the geomagnetic activity was mostly low. The expected arrival of a CME, related to the flares of classes X1.5 and C4.7 on 10 May did not arrive on Earth. 

    "The decrease in geomagnetic activity together with the increase in the intensity of solar X-rays contributed to the fact that the critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 were above average, increased further since 15 May." 

    "Here is the Solar activity forecast for the period May 20-26, 2022: 

    "Activity level: mostly moderate

    X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.4-C2.6

    Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 145-195

    Events: class C (1-10/day), class M (1-8/period), class X

    (0-3/period), proton (0-1/period)

    Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 140-230


    "Jana Hrabalova, RWC Prague Astronomical Institute."


    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 20-26, 2022:


    "Quiet: May 21-23

    Unsettled: May 19-20, 24-26

    Active: May 19, 24

    Minor storm: possible May 24

    Major storm: 0

    Severe storm: 0

    "Geomagnetic activity summary:

    "Today (Thursday, May 19), unsettled to active conditions are expected. On Friday, May 20, we expect at most unsettled conditions until Saturday, May 21. From this day to Tuesday, May 24, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

    "About Tuesday, May 24, and Wednesday, May 25, the return of the unsettled conditions may be accompanied by a further active event."

    "Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov observatory."

    KB1AWM wrote on Sunday, May 15:

    "Had a nice short opening to VK6OZ on 12m from Charleston, SC at 0330 UTC tonight. The mode was FT8. What was most amazing was given that late night propagation is usually not conducive to 12m, I switched on the amp and received a +17 dB signal report. If you take out the 7 dB from the amp, that still leaves +10 dB barefoot. I'm enjoying these 10 and 12 meter openings!"

    I replied: "I've been seeing interesting stuff on 12 meters as well. Frequently during the day on FT8 I will see my signal from here in Seattle on pskreporter ONLY being received in Florida. Weird!" 

    On Tuesday, May 17 on 12 meter FT8 starting at 2130 UTC I was only heard by CX6VM in Uruguay (6,945 miles), WH6S on Kauai (2,723 miles) and 3D2EZ Fiji (5,834 miles). 

    This persisted until 2145 UTC when I was heard by WQ6Q in California (713 miles). 

    On Thursday, May 19 I used FT8 to observe propagation on 10 meters using pskreporter.info from 1530-1600 UTC. Local sunrise was 1231 UTC. During that half hour I was receiving no signals at all, but my low power signal was being received by many stations, only in the Western United States, all between 700-1200 miles away, with one odd exception, a mysterious WLO in EM50vo, 2149 miles from me in Alabama. 

    WLO turned out to be the callsign of an old Coastal Maritime station in Mobile, Alabama. This doesn't mean that they are on the 10 meter band with that callsign, but instead have a receiver monitoring the band and forwarding received info via WSJT-X. 

    Check out this web site: 

    https://www.radiomarine.org/historic-coast-stations/wlo-mobile[4] 

    Interesting web site - the Solar Influences Data Center: 

    https://www.sidc.be/LatestSWData/LatestSWData.php[5] 

    The Solar Terrestrial Centre of Excellence: 

    https://www.stce.be/news/591/welcome.html[6] 

    Here is a site that talks about 17 flares: 

    https://bit.ly/3NtPaP8[7] 

    Here is an article titled "Solar flares: What are they and how do they affect Earth?" with nice graphics: 

    https://bit.ly/3G2jgGF[8] 

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11]. 

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at, http://k9la.us/[13]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at, http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for May 12 through 18, 2022 were 112, 120, 105, 129, 173, 153, and 147, with a mean of 134.1. 10.7 cm flux was 133, 149.5, 152.7, 153.6, 161.7, 170.8, and 179.9, with a mean of 157.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 7, 12, 10, 12, and 7, with a mean of 9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 9, 10, 11, 15, and 7, with a mean of 9.6.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3G1m2ff
    [2] https://bit.ly/3sOEdQe
    [3] https://bit.ly/3yOhNlF
    [4] https://www.radiomarine.org/historic-coast-stations/wlo-mobile
    [5] https://www.sidc.be/LatestSWData/LatestSWData.php
    [6] https://www.stce.be/news/591/welcome.html
    [7] https://bit.ly/3NtPaP8
    [8] https://bit.ly/3G2jgGF
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat May 28 02:52:13 2022
    05/27/2022

     

    Although our Sun is currently peppered with spots, average daily sunspot number slipped from 134.1 the previous week to 124.7 during this reporting week, May 19 to 25.

    Average daily solar flux was actually a tiny bit higher, rising hardly at all from 157.3 to 158.8. Solar flux has been in a slow, steady decline from a peak of 179.9 on May 18.

    A new sunspot group emerged on May 19, two more on May 22, another on May 24 and two more on May 25. But a look at the total sunspot area, expressed in millionths of a full solar disc, shows it declining steadily through the week, from 1500 on May 19 down to 870 on May 25.

    AR3014 is the biggest sunspot group of the current solar cycle:

    https://bit.ly/39UwBVA[1]

    There were plenty of solar flares this week, although no significant disturbances to note.

    Here is a movie of a flare appearing on May 20:

    https://bit.ly/3GlNtAX[2]

    Another flare on May 25 at 1824 UTC, emerging from an old dead sunspot group:

    https://bit.ly/3PIoRXd[3]

    The Thursday prediction from USAF shows average daily solar flux dropping from 158.8 over the recent week to 114.5 for the following reporting week, May 26 through June 1. Also, the Thursday projection for solar flux in the next week was lower than the Wednesday prediction.

    Predicted solar flux is 120, 115 and 110 on May 27 to 29, 112 on May 30 to June 1, 115 on June 2, 120 on June 3 and 4, 115 on June 5 and 6, then 130, 140 and 150 on June 7 to 9, 155 on June 10 and 11, then 160 and 165 on June 12 and 13, 175 on June 14 and 15, 165 on June 16 to 19, then 163, 132, and 158 on June 20 to 22, 150, 142 and 138 on June 23 to 25, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on June 26 to 29, 120 on June 30 through July 1, and 115 on July 2 and 3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18, 15, 12 and 10 on May 27 to 31, 5 on June 1 to 9, then 8, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 10 to 14, then 12, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 15 to 19, 5 on June 20 to 22, then 10, 10 and 8 on June 23 to 25, and 5 on June 26 through July 6.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - May 26, 2022 from OK1HH.

    "The current accelerating growth of solar activity is leading to predictions that the maximum of the current cycle 25 should be comparable to cycle 19. Solar cycle 19 was the nineteenth solar cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of sunspot activity began. Solar cycle 19 lasted 10.5 years, beginning in April 1954 and ending in October 1964. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed during the peak of cycle 19 was 285, in March 1958.

    In the last 14 days, the solar flux has not fallen below 130. A total of 13 M-class solar flares were registered.

    The critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 in the same interval corresponded to the effective sunspot number 72 to 116, while drops below 100 occurred exclusively after days with slightly increased geomagnetic activity.

    It's already summer in the ionosphere of the Earth's Northern Hemisphere. This corresponds to lower values of the highest usable frequencies with the daily occurrence of sporadic layer E. The optimal frequencies for DX QSOs therefore fell below 20 MHz. With the exception of routes leading above lower latitudes, where they tend to be several MHz higher during the day.

    In the coming weeks, the activity of the sporadic layer E in the ionosphere of the northern hemisphere will intensify. Although solar activity should increase again after June 10, the activity of the sporadic layer E will have an even more significant effect on the opening of the shortest shortwave bands."

    Recent flare news:

    https://bit.ly/3wQWxtc[4]

    NN4X wrote:

    "There was some amazing propagation on Thursday, 5/26 on 12m to Asia over the north pole. I was called, and worked, in succession:

    EX8MLE 1618 UTC 

    9V1XX 1619 UTC 

    DS4FWI 1620 UTC 

    VU2CPL 1627 UTC

    Sadly, 6m never opened, but the fun didn't stop with 12m in the morning.

    15m was spectacularly open around 0200 UTC on Thursday evening.

    The band was literally open ALL OVER THE WORLD."

    Steve included a pskreporter map showing spectacular worldwide FT8 coverage for his signal.

    From Max White, M0VNG, concerning latitudinal asymmetry in sunspot regions:

    https://bit.ly/3MVCi4d[5]

    Posted to an email list devoted to propagation beacons on Thursday night:

    "Late evening. Only heard one beacon around 0345 UTC:

    ZL3TEN, 28.2279 MHz, 579  Path: 7,827 miles

    Unbelievable so late at night and signal so strong.

    73, Lou  WD5GLO-EM15AH  Oklahoma"

    On May 24 I sent this to propagation expert K9LA:

    "Over and over recently I do an FT8 test using pskreporter on 10 meters and if no response there, I check 12 meters, usually around 1600 to 1800 UTC.

    Every day shows my signals ONLY being received in Florida, the path about 2500 miles. Often there will be an XE station or two, also at 2500 miles.

    But that's it, nothing else. But later in the day there will be a few stations elsewhere.

    The bearing is 103 to 105 deg.

    This is consistent, day after day. I am sure Florida has a large ham population, but cannot for the life of me figure this out.

    On 10 meters a half hour ago AG0N in Nebraska reported, 999 miles away and also a 106 degree bearing, but otherwise see a huge concentration of Florida stations.

    Any idea why this is happening, other than perhaps a large and enthusiastic concentration of FT8 stations monitoring in Florida?"

    Carl replied:

    "Tad, your observations remind me of when I've operated on 10m around solar minimum from the Cayman Islands. Most of the QSOs are in the vicinity of MN - which is about 2500 miles (4000 km) from ZF. The openings are very selective in location when there aren't enough sunspots for shorter distances.

    The 2500 mile distance (4000 km) is right at the maximum F2 region hop length for 12m and 10m. That means the F2 region MUF is the highest for paths of that length.  Thus your FL and XE paths could be one F2 region hop. Any shorter paths would need more ionization to refract the higher elevation angles for those shorter distances.

    As for New England, the midpoint of the path would be farther north, which means a lower MUF.

    The Nebraska path might be via sporadic E, as 2000 km is the maximum hop length for the E region. Could the FL and XE paths be 2 hops via sporadic E? Perhaps - it'd be nice to have some data, but there aren't any ionosondes near those paths.

    If I had to bet, I'd go with one F2 region hop for FL and XE, and one Es hop for Nebraska."

    On May 25th I replied:

    "Attached is an image from pskreporter from this morning on 12 meters, with Florida represented by better conditions with coverage up the east coast."

    Carl responded:

    "That PSKreporter image with the densest reports from along the East Coast suggests that it was one F2 hop, and that the F2 region was better on May 25 at 1942 UTC than the previous days. The day-to-day variation of the F2 region certainly explains it well.

    It would be interesting to collect data for the entire day - maybe in 2-hour increments to see the patterns versus time. That may be a way to distinguish between F2 and Es."

    I received a link from IL4LZH for a page showing interesting analysis of signals received at his station over the past few years:

    "Here at https://ft8.chaos.cc[6].

    You can find some data plots that I have collected in recent years.

    They are analyzed by ITU zone and hours of days. Horizontally 40 ITU zone inside ITU zone hours from 00 to 23 vertically day of the month green intensity linked to intensity of signal."

    Carrington event, https://bit.ly/3LTeCfm[7]

    Dr. Tamitha Skov on May 22, https://youtu.be/g8t2U4QKABA[8]

    This weekend is the CQ World Wide CW WPX contest. You may be sought after if you have a 2x1 call sign (like my former call, KT7H) because the first few characters of your call may be unique. See https://www.cqwpx.com[9].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for May 19 through 25, 2022 were 154, 109, 110, 138, 132, 137, and 93, with a mean of 124.7. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2, 165.5, 166.7, 164.7, 158.2, 146.9, and 136.5, with a mean of 158.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 12, 10, 11, 5, 4, and 6, with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 10, 12, 9, 11, 6, 3, and 7, with a mean of 8.3.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/39UwBVA
    [2] https://bit.ly/3GlNtAX
    [3] https://bit.ly/3PIoRXd
    [4] https://bit.ly/3wQWxtc
    [5] https://bit.ly/3MVCi4d
    [6] https://ft8.chaos.cc
    [7] https://bit.ly/3LTeCfm
    [8] https://youtu.be/g8t2U4QKABA
    [9] https://www.cqwpx.com
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Jun 4 00:07:47 2022
    06/03/2022

     At 2335 UTC on June 2, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning.

    "A solar filament recently erupted from the southwest quadrant of the solar disk. Event modeling suggests a minor impact to the Earth's magnetosphere on late 05 June to early 06 June."

    All our measures of solar activity declined in a big way from the last reporting week to the current period, May 26 through June 1.

    Average daily sunspot number plummeted from 124.7 to 52.9, and average daily 10.7 cm solar flux receded from 158.8 to 104.3. These are dramatic shifts, although well within expected variations at this point in solar cycle 25.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month is 100 on June 3 to 5, 98 on June 6, 95 on June 7 and 8, then 90, 130, 135, and 140 on June 9 to 12, then 145, 150 and 145 on June 13 to 15, 140 on June 16 to 18, then 130, 125, 120 and 110 on June 19 to 22, 100 on June 23 to 29, 98 on June 30 through July 3, then 110, 112, 125, 130, 135, and 140 on July 4 to 9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 3 and 4, 15 and 12 on June 5 and 6, 5 on June 7 to 9, 8 and 12 on June 10 and 11, 14 on June 12 and 13, then 8 and 12 on June 14 and 15, 14 on June 16 and 17, 12 on June 18, 5 on June 19 to 22, then 16, 22, 12, 10 and 8 on June 23 to 27, and 5 on June 28 to July 6, then 8 and 12 on July 7 and 8, and 14 on July 9 and 10.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Last weekly commentary mentioned the possibility that the current 25th solar cycle could resemble the nineteenth, which peaked in 1958. However, it should be recalled that this was before the beginning of the satellite era, so compared to cycles 20 to 24 in fact, we know very little and comparison is difficult. Today's predictions of solar activity, without satellite measurements and observations, cannot even be imagined. The possibility of reaching such a high maximum as we experienced in 1958 applies under the conditions 'if the growth of activity continues with the current speed' and it is not the only condition.

    After large active areas sank a week ago, solar activity dropped significantly. No major eruptions were observed.

    The surprise was the G1-class geomagnetic storm on May 27th, related to the solar flare on the evening of May 25th. According to most predictions, the CME should have missed the Earth. In the shortwave propagation, we recorded an afternoon improvement on the 27th, followed by a significant degradation in the following days.

    The second surprise was the occurrence of reversed magnetic polarity sunspot (AR3027) on June 1st. We commonly encounter this phenomenon around the minimum of the eleven-year cycle, later only exceptionally. The return of higher solar activity can be expected as early as next week. A more significant improvement in shortwave propagation awaits us around mid-June."

    Thanks to David Moore, about how the current cycle progress is not exceptional, and definitely not another Cycle 19.

    https://bit.ly/3M7YOFS[1]

    Interesting.

    https://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfcm[2]

    https://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics[3]

    N0JK wrote on May 31:

    "There was great propagation to South America from the Midwest for the CQ WPX CW contest last weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday 10 meters was open to Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and other countries. I operated 'fixed mobile' with 10 watts and a quarter wave whip. Made 16 contacts.

    I suspect the higher solar flux from Solar Cycle 25 picking up helped with TEP ionization. And sporadic-E set up links to TEP."

    KA3JAW reports:

    "On Wednesday, June 1, 2022, between 1819 and 1833 UTC I received WM2XEJ in EM83 calling CQ using FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E. Distance 670 miles, azimuth 220 deg.

    The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700 MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.

    WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia.

    Tom is authorized to operate at 400 watts ERP using CW, SSB, FT4, FT8, WSPR, and Q65.

    Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna at 300 watts ERP.

    This was the second time I received WM2XEJ via sporadic-E. The first time was on Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607 and 1632 UTC.

    Here is an update to the 8-meter experimental band which happened today, Thursday, June 2, 2022.

    Sporadic-E started at 1521 til 1917 UTC.

    1521 to 1917 UTC WM2XEJ EM83 3RD time received via FT8, 670 miles, azimuth 220 deg.

    1704 to 1718 UTC WM2XAN EN74 1ST time received via FT8, 547 miles, azimuth 298 deg."

    More on 8 meter experimental stations:

    https://bit.ly/3tcsPhb[4]

    Nice images:

    https://bit.ly/3NQ6LRs[5]

    Correction: In last week's bulletin change IL4LZH to Gianluca Mazzini's actual call sign, IK4LZH.

    Another important and timely report from Dr. Tamitha Mulligan Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/JggsnMpwnrA[6]

    Check out her recently updated listing at QRZ.com.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8].

    For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10].

    More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for May 26 through June 1, 2022 were 87, 69, 34, 42, 40, 39, and 59, with a mean of 52.9. 10.7 cm flux was 122.7, 113.6, 101.8, 98.4, 100.6, 98, and 104.2, with a mean of 104.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 17, 24, 15, 9, 9, and 6, with a mean of 12. Middle latitude A index was 6, 14, 19, 14, 8, 8, and 8, with a mean of 11.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3M7YOFS
    [2] https://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfcm
    [3] https://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics
    [4] https://bit.ly/3tcsPhb
    [5] https://bit.ly/3NQ6LRs
    [6] https://youtu.be/JggsnMpwnrA
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 10 16:24:12 2022
    06/10/2022

    Hard for me to believe, I had to blink to make sure, but on Wednesday, June 8 for the first time this calendar year there were no sunspots, even though two new sunspot regions appeared on June 4.

    Average daily sunspot number declined to 44 from 52.9 last week. Average daily solar flux was only 99.4, down from 104.3 last week and 158.8 the week before.

    News about the first spotless day can be found here:

    https://bit.ly/39cOiQk[1]

    I am grateful that on Thursday, June 9, a new sunspot group emerged, bringing the sunspot number for the day to 17.

    Predicted solar flux is 105 on June 10, 110 on June 11-16, 115 on June 17, 120 on June 18, 125 on June 19-20, 150 on June 21, 110 on June 22, 100 on June 23 through July 3, 105 on July 4-5, 110 on July 6-10, then 115 on July 11-13, 120 on July 14, and 125 on July 15-16.

    Assuming the above prediction is true, this would mean average daily solar flux rising from 99.4 to 109 over the next reporting week and 123 the next.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 10-14, then 8, 12 and 8 on June 15-17, 5 on June 18-22, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on June 23-26, 5 on June 27 through July 9, then 12, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on July 10-14, and 5 on July 15-19.

    Despite the recent downturn, Solar Cycle 25 activity exceeds the official forecast:

    https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle[2]

    According to Spaceweather.com, May 2022 sunspot activity was the highest it's been in eight years.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "As during the last solar revolution, solar activity has been low in the last two weeks.

    "On June 8, the Sun was even empty - no sunspots - R = 0.

    "This is a remarkable development more than 2 years after the beginning of Solar Cycle 25. However, during the last few hours, rapid spots have been observed near the central meridian. In addition, NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft is monitoring a probable group of sunspots approaching beyond the northeastern edge of the Sun:

    "https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov[3]

    "It should be followed by other groups of spots, which will increase solar activity again.

    "The Earth's magnetic field was largely quiet, except for an increase in activity on June 6.

    "The result was an improvement in the propagation conditions on June 6 and a degradation on June 7 and the morning of June 8. Gradual improvement can be expected in the coming days."

    W9NY wrote:

    "Just got a new dipole up on 10 meters on my condo roof which is over 400 feet off the ground overlooking Lake Michigan.

    "Made a couple of contacts late this afternoon into Texas and Louisiana S5-S6 and nothing else on the band, until a ZL called me from New Zealand about 6:20 PM local time. He gave me an S9, and he was S5. Just like the good old days on 10 meters!

    "The ionosphere has to be working, I think, to get over to New Zealand."

    Some observations from K7RA on 6 and 12 meters this week:

    On June 4, at 1745 UTC on 6 meter FT8 I worked KB1EFS/2 in Cape Vincent, New York.

    On pskreporter.info[4] I saw that my signal was propagating along a very narrow arc at 72-74 degrees received only by a concentration of stations in the northeast USA. No real 6 meter antenna here, just a 32 foot end-fed wire, 4:1 UnUn and autotuner, mostly indoors on the second floor of my 1907 all wood Craftsman home.

    Just prior to that at 1730 UTC I seemed to be monitored only by stations 2000-2500 miles from me in an arc with bearings 77-79 degrees with WA9WTK at the south and VE3TTP at the north.

    On June 9 at 2300 UTC on 12 meters FT8 I am only heard by N4DB at 91 degrees, 2292 miles and K4BSZ at 94 degrees, 2276 miles. Then at 2320 UTC, WB4EVH at 2326 miles and 103 degrees bearing, at 2330 UTC, VK5PJ at 8306 miles, 250 degrees.

    Here is an article about aurora:

    https://bit.ly/398hPdM[5]

    Mostly good info, except the statement about being halfway through this Solar Cycle. I guess we might be halfway toward the peak.

    Here is a link about the K-index:

    https://bit.ly/3xnDrLc[6]

    Here is a nice solar image, and another interesting link:

    https://bit.ly/3xlrB4B[7]

    https://bit.ly/3x9WNna[8]

    Amateur Astro photographer and his image:

    https://bit.ly/3NILWYo[9]

    More information here:

    https://bit.ly/3QcuX2a[10]

    Here is a 3-week movie of sunspot activity:

    https://bit.ly/3zqGu87[11]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[12] .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[17].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 2 through 8, 2022 were 59, 52, 75, 57, 45, 23, and 0, with a mean of 44.4. 10.7 cm flux was 100.9, 100.7, 100.9, 98.7, 96.4, 98.4, and 99.9, with a mean of 99.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 4, 10, 8, and 5, with a mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 5, 10, 11, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/39cOiQk
    [2] https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle
    [3] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov
    [4] http://pskreporter.info
    [5] https://bit.ly/398hPdM
    [6] https://bit.ly/3xnDrLc
    [7] https://bit.ly/3xlrB4B
    [8] https://bit.ly/3x9WNna
    [9] https://bit.ly/3NILWYo
    [10] https://bit.ly/3QcuX2a
    [11] https://bit.ly/3zqGu87
    [12] k7ra@arrl.net
    [13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [17] http://k9la.us/
    [18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 17 16:46:38 2022
    06/17/2022

    Solar activity increased this week, which we were happy to see, with average daily sunspot number rising from 44.4 last week to 74.3 during this reporting week, June 9-15. Sunspot numbers rose all week, starting at 17 on Thursday, June 9 to 149 on Wednesday, June 15.

    Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux increased from 99.4 to 123.9. Solar flux peaked at 145.5 on Tuesday, June 14, but then on Thursday the noon daily reading at the Penticton observatory was 146.7, an increase from 140 the day before. Also on Thursday, daily sunspot number increased from 149 on Wednesday to 159.

    The Penticton observatory does three daily readings of solar flux, but it is the local noon reading that is the official solar flux reading of the day, and the one we report here.

    You can see the readings at https://bit.ly/3b5OBNk[1] .

    The solar flux outlook appears promising for the next few days. The June 16, 2022 forecast from the USAF Space Weather Squadron shows solar flux at 146 on June 17-18, then 144, 140, and 138 on June 19-21, 136 on June 22-24, 100 on June 25 through July 5, then 105, 110 and 115 on July 6-8, 120 on July 9-11, 125 on July 12-16, 120 on July 17-18, 110 on July 19 and 100 on July 20-31.

    Predicted planetary A index, a measure of geomagnetic stability, is 8 on June 17-18, 5 on June 19-24, then 10, and 8 on June 25-26, 5 on June 27 through July 7, 8 on July 8-10, then 5, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on July 11-15, then 5 on July 16-19, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on July 20-23, and 5 through the end of the month.

    You can find daily updates for predicted solar flux and A index at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt[2] . Updates are posted every afternoon, North America time.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity grew. The most significant phenomenon was observed in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk - a long-duration (LDE) M3/1n solar flare, observed at 0407 UTC on June 13, accompanied by type-II and IV radio emissions and radio bursts.

    "The associated CME was visible off the east. The arrival of the ejected cloud of particles on Earth was calculated to the afternoon of June 15.

    "Interplanetary magnetic field strength increased at 0400 UTC on June 15. Solar wind speed was about 500 km/s until shock arrival, when it escalated to 550 km/s and eventually peaked at 624 km/s at 0556 UTC.  The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with an escalation to G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 1200-1500 UTC in reaction to CME effects.

    "The MUF increase caused by the storm was registered on June 15 at two intervals, first after 0600 UTC and second before 1200 UTC. In the afternoon to evening a decrease in MUF followed, an increase in the decline and an overall worsening.

    "Solar activity will remain elevated for several days, which will help conditions return to above average levels. However, in the Earth's northern hemisphere, sporadic-E layer will cause very irregular development, from increased attenuation to more frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands."

    Here are some solar flare updates:

    https://bit.ly/3xvycJO[3]

    https://bit.ly/3O0re6B[4]

    Thanks to K5EM of the Western Washington DX Club for this study of sporadic-E:

    https://bit.ly/39zqIxk[5]

    Here is some information about the Maunder Minimum:

    https://bit.ly/3QubESn[6]

    Go to https://www.spaceweather.com[7] and look for an article that appeared June 15-16 titled "Mapping a Magnetic Superstorm."

    Look for this fascinating map:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/12jun22/resistivity.jpg[8] .

    It purports to show which areas are more vulnerable to effects from geomagnetic storms due to variations in ground and infrastructure conductivity.

    Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, a favorite operating activity for many of us. The current outlook shows modest solar flux and perhaps slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. Predicted solar flux for June 24-26 is 136, 100 and 100, with planetary A index at 5, 10 and 8. Field Day starts on Saturday, but it is worth looking at predictions for Friday.

    Look for an update in next week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP025. Field Day rules are at, http://www.arrl.org/field-day[9] .

    A few days ago, Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted this:

    https://youtu.be/pv4QmVfz95A[10]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[11].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 9 through 15, 2022 were 17, 33, 41, 63, 96,121, and 149, with a mean of 74.3. 10.7 cm flux was 106.4, 110.5, 112.1, 121.3, 131.5, 145.5, and 140, with a mean of 123.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 8, 9, 13, 8, and 20, with a mean of 9.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 10, 12, 14, 10, and 18, with a mean of 10.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3b5OBNk
    [2] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt
    [3] https://bit.ly/3xvycJO
    [4] https://bit.ly/3O0re6B
    [5] https://bit.ly/39zqIxk
    [6] https://bit.ly/3QubESn
    [7] https://www.spaceweather.com
    [8] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/12jun22/resistivity.jpg
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/field-day
    [10] https://youtu.be/pv4QmVfz95A
    [11] k7ra@arrl.net
    [12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] http://k9la.us/
    [17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 24 19:03:09 2022
    06/24/2022

    This past reporting week (June 16-22) began with a bang, when the daily sunspot number was 159. But sunspot numbers declined every day to finally reach 80 on June 22.

    One new sunspot group emerged on June 15, another on June 16, one more on June 18, and another on June 21.

    Average daily sunspot number over the week was 124.6, up substantially from 74.3 the previous seven days.

    Average daily solar flux rose from 123.9 to 140.5.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 9.7 to 11.4, and the middle latitude numbers increased one point to 11.9

    It was great to see the Sun covered with spots on Spaceweather.com. Use the Archives feature toward the upper right, and you can see the

    daily solar images on the left side of the page for any date in the past. I particularly appreciated the image of June 17, our Sun blanketed with sunspots!

    Unfortunately, a California wildfire cut off power to the Solar Dynamics Observatory Data Center at Stanford University, so solar images are not being provided, according to Spaceweather.com.

    ARRL Field Day is this weekend. What is the outlook?

    The latest from US Air Force forecasters Housseal and King at the USAF 557th Weather Wing shows predicted solar flux at 120, 115 and 110 on June 24-26, and Planetary A index of 8, 12 and 15. Field Day is actually on June 25-26, but it is useful to see the prediction for Friday. The planetary A index shoes a moderate but increasing geomagnetic instability.

    Newsweek reported a recent sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3xNdZiB[1]

    The latest (Thursday night) forecast from USAF shows solar flux at 120 and 115 on June 24-25, 110 on June 26-27, 100 on June 28-29, 105 on June 30, 100 on July 1-2, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July 3-7, 130 on July 8-9, 135 on July 10, 140 on July 11-16, then 138, 134, 125 and 121 on July 17-20, then 114, 118 and 105 on July 21-23, 100 on July 24-29, then 105, 110, 115 and 120 on July 30 through August 2.

    The planetary A index prediction is 8, 12, and 15 on June 24-26, 5 on June 27 to July 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8 on July 8-11, 5 on July 12-13, 12 on July 14-16, 10 on July 17, 5 on July 18-19, then 12, 18, 12 and 10 on July 20-23, then 5 on July 24 through August 3, and 8 on August 4-5.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "The distribution of active areas on the Sun according to heliographic latitudes has changed relatively little during the last three solar rotations, therefore the predictions of the overall solar activity level were quite reliable.

    "The parameters of the solar wind, measured around the Earth, and the activity of the geomagnetic field had a similar course.

    "The highest usable frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 (MUF) were increased on June 19-20. The sporadic-E layer played the most important role in the shortwave propagation on June 16-19."

    The latest space weather video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/whjz9b0kLhY[2]

    A story about how "We can't reliably predict solar cycles" can be found at:

    https://bit.ly/3NiMbbx[3]

    I have no idea what prompted an incredible series of news stories late Thursday. Was it a slow news day? Perhaps an indication of a respite from national tragedies?

    The following websites contain stories about our Sun, and the emergence of a big spot. Interesting because on Thursday the sunspot number declined to 69 from 80 the day before, and much lower compared to the 124.6 average for the previous seven days:

    https://bit.ly/3zZ30VU[4]

    https://bit.ly/3ODJiTP[5]

    https://bit.ly/3OEDgCA[6]

    https://bit.ly/3bdRWtI[7]

    https://bit.ly/39R3SBu[8]

    https://bit.ly/3nf1B6c[9]

    https://bit.ly/3NieXsZ[10]

    https://bit.ly/3nf1QhC[11]

    https://youtu.be/EJj_zseYqQs[12]

    https://bit.ly/3HOJOMC[13]

    https://bit.ly/3yfrIA8[14]

    https://bit.ly/3Ngyiun[15]

    https://bit.ly/3QMSw1O[16]

    https://bit.ly/3OjuY38[17]

    https://bit.ly/3yiUY9q[18]

    https://bit.ly/3HNMMAO[19]

    https://bit.ly/3tXVlDo[20]

    https://bit.ly/3HOhvhe[21]

    https://inhabitat.com/massive-sunspot-glares-at-the-earth/[22]

    https://bit.ly/3Ngzyh5[23]

    https://bit.ly/3yhj2cH[24]

    https://bit.ly/3QKwcGb[25]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[26] .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[27] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[28] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[29] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[30] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[31] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[32] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 16 through 22, 2022 were 159, 152, 145, 120, 112, 104, and 80, with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux was 146.7, 148.9, 140.2, 143.6, 136.5, 138.8, and 128.7, with a mean of 140.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 13, 14, 12, 10, 8, and 11, with a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 14, 14, 15, 10, 10, 10, and 10, with a mean of 11.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3xNdZiB
    [2] https://youtu.be/whjz9b0kLhY
    [3] https://bit.ly/3NiMbbx
    [4] https://bit.ly/3zZ30VU
    [5] https://bit.ly/3ODJiTP
    [6] https://bit.ly/3OEDgCA
    [7] https://bit.ly/3bdRWtI
    [8] https://bit.ly/39R3SBu
    [9] https://bit.ly/3nf1B6c
    [10] https://bit.ly/3NieXsZ
    [11] https://bit.ly/3nf1QhC
    [12] https://youtu.be/EJj_zseYqQs
    [13] https://bit.ly/3HOJOMC
    [14] https://bit.ly/3yfrIA8
    [15] https://bit.ly/3Ngyiun
    [16] https://bit.ly/3QMSw1O
    [17] https://bit.ly/3OjuY38
    [18] https://bit.ly/3yiUY9q
    [19] https://bit.ly/3HNMMAO
    [20] https://bit.ly/3tXVlDo
    [21] https://bit.ly/3HOhvhe
    [22] https://inhabitat.com/massive-sunspot-glares-at-the-earth/
    [23] https://bit.ly/3Ngzyh5
    [24] https://bit.ly/3yhj2cH
    [25] https://bit.ly/3QKwcGb
    [26] k7ra@arrl.net
    [27] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [28] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [29] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [30] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [31] http://k9la.us/
    [32] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Jul 2 00:19:25 2022
    07/01/2022

    Solar activity took a dramatic plunge over the recent reporting week (June 23 to 29) but geomagnetic activity stayed exactly the same. Field Day weekend saw rising geomagnetic numbers, with planetary A index at 8, 16 and 23, Friday through Sunday.

    On Sunday the geomagnetic activity was a problem, although not severe, with many stations in Field Day reporting increased absorption.  The planetary K index peaked at 5 (a big number) at the end of the UTC Day on Saturday and continued into the early hours of Sunday, which was early Saturday evening here on the West Coast.

    This happened because of a crack in Earth's magnetosphere, detailed here: https://bit.ly/3ONZdQ9[1]

    Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers declined from 124.6 to 49.1, while average daily solar flux dropped from 140.5 to 105.3.

    Planetary and middle latitude A-index averages were both the same as the previous week, all numbers around 11.

    The prediction from the USAF 557th Weather Wing is not very optimistic, with solar flux peaking at 140 on July 11 to 16.

    The prediction shows 10.7 cm solar flux at 90 on July 1, 95 on July 2, 105 on July 3 to 5, then 110, 120, 130 and 135 on July 7 to 10, 140 on July 11 to 16, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on July 17 to 20, and 115, 110, 105 and 100 on July 21 to 24, 95 on July 25 and 26, 100 on July 27 to 29, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July 30 through August 3, then 130 on August 4 and 5, and back to 140 again on August 7 to 12.

    Predicted planetary A-index is 5 on July 1 to 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8 on July 8 to 11, 5 on July 12 and 13, 12 on July 14 to 16, 10 on July 17, 8 on July 18 to 21, then 12, 15, 15 and 10 on July 22 to 25, and 5 on July 26 through August 4, then 8, 12 and 8 on August 5 to 7.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH writes, "Solar activity has declined over the last seven days.  Geomagnetic activity was highest on June 26(G1-class geomagnetic storm broke out around midnight UT on June 25and 26) and was lower on June 28 and
    29.  On June 26, a big, bright CME billowed away from the sun's southern hemisphere.  A slow-moving CME that left the sun could pass close to Earth on June 30.  The near miss, if it occurs, could disturb our planet's magnetic field.

    A dark filament of magnetism erupted in the sun's northern hemisphere on June 28, but no CME was observed after the explosion. Shortwave propagation conditions were relatively worse on June 26 and 27.  After that, they began to improve, but only very slowly due to the declining solar activity."

    A new space weather report and forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, our Space Weather Woman.

    https://youtu.be/0yAS_FpLTsk[2]

    Tomas Bayer of the Department of Geomagnetism, RWC Prague, at the Budkov Observatory wrote this geomagnetic activity summary:

    "After the last active events on June 24 to 26, which without a storm event did not exceed the active level (local K-index = 4), we expect a geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled level during the coming seven days.

    More unsettled geomagnetic activity can be expected about July 3 and 4, and also at the end of the currently forecast period on July 7. Then we expect geomagnetic activity at a quiet to unsettled level." Here are pictures of the Budkov Observatory:

    https://bit.ly/3ugnUfv[3]

    https://bit.ly/3bH9Pl4[4]

    How big is our nearest star?

    https://bit.ly/3yb6cv6[5]

    Cycle forecasts, wrong or right?

    https://bit.ly/3R3HQfF[6]

    Storm watch, from the popular press:

    https://bit.ly/3bGvXfs[7]

    Reader David Moore, a frequent contributor, sent this:

    https://bit.ly/3Agoo9g[8]

    It hasn't been updated recently, but here is a blog devoted to propagation:

    http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com[9]

    Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16].

    Sunspot numbers for June 23 through 29, 2022 were 69, 60, 31, 33, 32, 71, and 48, with a mean of 49.1.  10.7 cm flux was 121.4, 115.4, 108.1, 102, 98.2, 96.1, and 96.2, with a mean of 105.3.  Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 16, 23, 12, 8, and 6, with a mean of 11.9. Middle latitude A index was 12, 8, 14, 15, 15, 11, and 7, with a mean of 11.7.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3ONZdQ9
    [2] https://youtu.be/0yAS_FpLTsk
    [3] https://bit.ly/3ugnUfv
    [4] https://bit.ly/3bH9Pl4
    [5] https://bit.ly/3yb6cv6
    [6] https://bit.ly/3R3HQfF
    [7] https://bit.ly/3bGvXfs
    [8] https://bit.ly/3Agoo9g
    [9] http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [15] http://k9la.us/
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Jul 9 02:35:53 2022
    07/08/2022

    On July 7 Spaceweather.com reported a G-1-class geomagnetic storm underway, with possible increase to G-2 class.  They said it was caused by a co-rotating interaction region.  The storm subsided, but then came back early on July 8.

    Late on July 7 Spaceweather.com presented this animation of a large new sunspot AR3053 emerging over the sun's eastern horizon:

    https://bit.ly/3bYQImG[1]

    Notice that unlike here on Earth, the sun's eastern horizon is on the left?  Perhaps we can explain that in a future bulletin.  Your input would be appreciated.

    When I suspect HF conditions are disturbed due to geomagnetic activity, I look at the latest K index on this site:

    https://bit.ly/3RiFMAh[2]

    The left column of K indices starts at 0300 UTC and repeat every three hours.  At the end of the UTC day, an A index number is assigned.

    For an even more up to date indicator, I check here: https://bit.ly/3IpOUiQ[3]. Note the 6 hour, 1-day, 3-day and 7 day options in the upper left corner.

    Sunspot activity increased this week, with average daily sunspot numbers going from 49.1 to 62.6.  But oddly, average daily solar flux was down slightly from 105.3 to 103.5.

    Taking a longer view, solar activity is stronger than it was a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was 34.7 and average solar flux was 86.9 as reported in ARLP027 in 2021.

    Spaceweather.com reported that a CME missed Earth on July 1, but it pushed dense solar wind plasma toward us, causing a G1 class geomagnetic storm.  In the few hours past midnight UTC planetary K index was 4, then 5.  Alaska's high latitude college A index was 25 on July 2.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month is 128 on July 8, 130 on July 9 and 10, then 128 and 125 on July 11 and 12, 120 on July 13 and 14, then 115, 110, 100, 95 and 98 on July 15 to 19, 95 on July 20 and 21, 98 on July 22 and 23, 100 on July 24 and 25, 102 on July 26, 105 on July 27 and 28, 100 on July 29, 110 on July 30 and 31, 112 on August 1 and 2, 115 on August 3 to 6, 112 on August 7 and 8, 110 on August 9, 108 on August 10 and 11, then 110, 100, 95 and 98 on August 12 to 15.

    Predicted planetary A index 15 on July 8, 5 on July 9 to 12, 12 and 15 on July 13 and 14, 12 on July 15 and 16, 10 on July 17, 8 on July 18 to 21, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on July 22 to 25, 5 on July 26 to 31, then 8, 25, 12 and 8 on August 1 to 4, and 5 on August 5 to 9,then 10, 15, 12 and 10 on August 10 to 13.

    The above forecast is from Sadovsky and Thompson at the USAF 557th Weather Wing.  See https://bit.ly/3PcPNNC[4] for an article about their operation.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports: "A slow-moving CME that left the Sun on June 26 finally hit Earth on July 1 and triggered a positive phase of the disturbance with improved ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions.  This was followed by a slight worsening.  Then we observed a slow improvement thanks to increasing activity of the sporadic E layer since 6 July.  There was an even greater chance for so-called short skips in the early hours of July 7.

    A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field on July 7th, sparking a G1-class (maybe G2) geomagnetic storm." Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, presents a new video, 108 minutes long:

    https://youtu.be/HX0gyP5dqR4[5]

    Earthsky update: 

    https://bit.ly/3OSNX4V[6]

    Thanks to Max White for this:

    https://bit.ly/3RgmZpt[7]

    https://bit.ly/3nOYBO0[8]

    Send your tips, reports, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net [9].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14].

    Sunspot numbers for June 30 through July 6, 2022 were 40, 30, 57, 42, 79, 92, and 98, with a mean of 62.6.  10.7 cm flux was 95.7, 98, 100.2, 102.2, 104.4, 109.4, and 114.6, with a mean of 103.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 7, 19, 8, 21, 4, and 5, with a mean of 9.8.  Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 17, 11, 18, 4, and 5, with a mean of 9.7.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3bYQImG
    [2] https://bit.ly/3RiFMAh
    [3] https://bit.ly/3IpOUiQ
    [4] https://bit.ly/3PcPNNC
    [5] https://youtu.be/HX0gyP5dqR4
    [6] https://bit.ly/3OSNX4V
    [7] https://bit.ly/3RgmZpt
    [8] https://bit.ly/3nOYBO0
    [9] http://arrl.net
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 15 23:59:13 2022
    07/15/2022

    Rising solar activity over the past reporting week (July 7 to 13) was reflected in increased sunspot numbers and solar flux and rising geomagnetic activity as well.

    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 62.6 to 102.1, with the peak value at 134 on Monday, July 11.  Average daily solar flux rose from 103.5 to 147.4, with peak values at 164.9 and 164.8 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

    A new sunspot emerged on July 7, another on July 10, and one more on July 11.  Total sunspot area peaked on July 11.

    Planetary A index averaged out at 12.4 (up from 9.8 last week) while the middle-latitude A index went from 9.7 to 10.6.

    Toward the end of the UTC day on July 7, Alaska's college A index was 46, a very high value, while the last four K index readings of the day and the next two were 6, 6, 7, 5, 5 and 5.

    This was caused by a co-rotating interaction region, sparking a G-1 class geomagnetic storm.

    Look here for info on co-rotating interaction regions:

    https://bit.ly/3P91Xrp[1]

    https://bit.ly/3IBOtlm[2]

    https://bit.ly/3yDwxlU[3]

    The Thursday night prediction from USAF shows improvement from the Wednesday outlook, with solar flux at 170 on July 15 and 16, 165 on July 17 and 18, 160 on July 19 and 20, then 155 and 145 on July 21 and 22, 135 on July 23 and 24, then 138 and 148 on July 25 and 26, 150 on July 27 to 29, 160 on July 30 clear out to August 7, then 155, 145 and 135 on August 8 to 10, 138 on August 11 and 12, then 128 and 125 on August 13 and 14, then 130 on August 15 to 17, and 135 on August 18 to 20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on July 15 to 21, then 10, 20 and 12 on July 22 to 24, 8 again on July 25 through August 2, then 12 and 10 on August 3 and 4, and 8 on August 5 to 7, then 15, 28 and 12 on August 8 to 10, 8 on August 11 to 17, then 15, 20 and 12 on August 18 to 20, and 8 on August 21 through the end of the month.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity continued to rise as predicted, a little faster than we anticipated.  The area of sunspots increased significantly. We observed several long and large filaments, especially on July 11 and 12. Geomagnetically calmer days 9 and 10 and 13 and 14 July were replaced by G1-Minor Geomagnetic Storm conditions on July 8 and 12. The influx of protons of solar origin intensified after the July 9 eruption (with a maximum at 1348 UT) lasted until July 12. Shortwave propagation conditions varied erratically, worst on 8 July, better starting on 11 July."

    W5CTD wrote on July 9 that the previous Saturday he was playing around with a 20 meter Hustler mobile antenna mag-mounted on his car.

    He was puzzled at first when he heard stations calling "CQ Contest", til he looked it up and found out it was the IARU DX Contest.

    Chuck did not mention what mode he used, so I will assume it was SSB.  He was surprised to work many European stations, in fact, the list seemed to include all the European countries.

    Signals were strong, and he noted that his antenna was non-directional, and on his car parked on the street.

    The opening lasted from 0200 to 0400 UTC, but by 0430 the opening was over. "One improbable and amazing night."

    KS7T in Montana, who I worked recently on 17 meter FT8, sent me this in an email, which I edited:

    "I accidentally came across condx on 15 meter CW during the IARU contest that I haven't experienced there since the ARRL CW contest back in February 2000 when I was working Europe from Montana at 2 am local MST.

    20 started showing some signs of fading to EU right before 11 a.m. local and when that happens my instinct usually switches me to 40 but not this time.  My subconscious was begging me to check out 15. So I did.  First I heard a B4 (China?), so tuned around expecting to hear JAs.  There were none, but what I did hear was many headquarters signals from all over EU.  Had been on 15 earlier in the daytime and heard and worked two of those plus CR3DX, but that was it.

    I wasn't expecting to work any of those EU stns I just heard because a lot of them were weak, a few were S9 but fired up on 15 and just had to give 'em a call.  Well, not only did I work all 19 of them, but on first call, too.  Had 22 qs in all between 11pm and midnight on 15.

    The other 3 were two VK stns and the B4 who was a struggle.  He got my call OK but took several minutes to get the 06 through to him.

    Last night got on 6 and it had a bit of an opening to the east coast but just a few 4s and 2 1s were seen.  Worked some 9s and K4RW in SC.

    I have 44 states and one JA on 6 meters since 2020 either with my tribander or a homebrew 6 el vertical beam on the ground running 50w.

    I don't think I have ever seen a year like this one propagation wise in my 66 years in ham radio.  It has been quite frustrating at times but also very surprising, too."

    New video a few days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:

    https://youtu.be/zd2MQhPmMwM[4]

    Next week I hope to get reports from N2CG about his WM2XCS 8 meter (49 MHz) beacon.

    Send your tips, reports, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for July 7 through 13, 2022 were 80, 81, 89, 113, 134, 117, and 101, with a mean of 102.1.  10.7 cm flux was 121.3, 129.6, 136.9, 153, 161, 164.9, and 164.8, with a mean of 147.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 19, 6, 7, 12, 18, and 5, with a mean of 12.4.  Middle latitude A index was 15, 14, 6, 8, 10, 16, and 5, with a mean of 10.6.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3P91Xrp
    [2] https://bit.ly/3IBOtlm
    [3] https://bit.ly/3yDwxlU
    [4] https://youtu.be/zd2MQhPmMwM/
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Aug 15 15:27:51 2022
    07/22/2022

    Solar activity increased over this reporting week, July 14 to 20, with average daily sunspot number rising from 102.1 to 137.3, and average daily solar flux from 147.4 to 157.6.

    Peak sunspot number was 166 on July 17, and peak solar flux was 171.4 on July 15.

    Geomagnetic activity peaked on July 19 when planetary A index was 26 and middle latitude A index at 19.  Alaska's high latitude college A index was 43, with the K index at 6, 5, 5, 6 and 5 at 0900 to 2000 UTC.

    Average daily planetary A index decreased this week from 12.4 to 9.4.

    A crack opened in the earth's magnetic field on July 19, allowing

    solar wind to stream in.  It is documented here:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/19jul22/data.jpg[1]

    At 2241 UTC on July 20 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning.  An increase in geomagnetic activity is expected over 22 to 24 July due to the onset of coronal hole high speed wind streams."

    Here is the latest forecast from USAF.  Predicted solar flux seems promising with flux values peaking around 160 on July 30 through August 7 and again from August 26 through early September. Predicted flux values are 120 on July 22, then 118 on July 23 to 25, then 116, 114, 110 and 120 on July 26 to 29, 160 on July 30 through August 7, then 155, 145 and 138 on August 8 to 10, then 138 on August 11 and 12, then 128 and 125 on August 13 and 14, 130 on August 15 to 17, 135 on August 18 to 20, 138 and 148 on August 21 and 22, 150 on August 23 to 25, and 160 on August 26 to September 3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 40, 14 and 10 on July 22 to 25, 5 on July 26 to 28, 8 on July 29 through August 2, then 12 and 10 on August 3 and 4, 8 on August 5 to 7, then 15, 28 and 12 on August 8 to 10, 8 on August 11 to 17, then 15, 20 and 12 on August 18 to 20, and 8 again on August 21 to 29.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "A week ago we commemorated the BASTILLE DAY EVENT.  Twenty-two years ago (on the French national holiday of July 14, 2000), the Sun sent out a shock wave that reached the edge of the solar system. The subatomic particles accelerated by the eruption showered satellites and penetrated deep into the Earth's atmosphere. Radiation sensors on the Earth's surface detected a rare GLE - a ground-level event.  And if solar activity continues to grow as it is now, we will see something similar in the years to come.

    The most notable recent event was a crack that opened in Earth's magnetic field on July 19th, allowing solar wind to enter our planet's magnetosphere.  The result was a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. Starting today, July 21, a slow-moving CME could hit Earth's magnetic field (thrown into space by the July 15 solar flare).  The high-speed stream of the solar wind should follow closely behind the CME.  Its arrival on July 22nd could intensify any storm the CME creates, possibly extending the disturbance until July 23rd.

    In addition, solar activity will decrease in the coming days, which combined with G1 is not good for shortwave propagation conditions."

    Rich, K1HTV wrote:

    "Yesterday evening, July 19, 2022 there was an incredible 6 Meter DX opening between VK4 and many lucky stations in the U.S. as well as the Ontario area.

    At 2311 UTC I decoded VK4MA completing a QSO with KD3CQ in southern MD. I was next in line, and quickly worked VK4MA from my FM18ap Virginia QTH.  I was followed by W3UR, W3LPL, AB3CV, N3OC and W3KX, all in MD and KF2T and K4SO in VA.

    Two minutes after working VK4MA I also worked VK4WTN, I also copied but did not work VK4HJ.

    I continued to decode the VK4 stations until 2358 UTC. I copied VK4MA working K8SIX in MI, W7XU in SD, N0TB in MD, VE3EDY and as far northeast as NZ3M in PA, N2OO, W2XI and W2IRT in NJ, W1VD in CT, WA1EAZ in MA and K1TOL in Maine, which was Paul's longest ever 6 Meter DX contact.  VK4MA reported logging 27 stations during his almost one hour long DX opening to North America.

    To say the least, it was a very memorable opening on the Magic Band. The solar flux was near 180 a few days earlier and a K index of 5 earlier in the day of the opening.  Was it F2 skip?  Was it TEP? Was it SSSP?  (Short Path Summer Solstice Propagation, see https://bit.ly/3oswSD3[2]).

    It was some kind of chordal propagation, probably linked to the Es opening from the East to Mid-America at the time.  I'll leave it up to the propagation experts to figure out what mode it was."

    I assume he was using FT8, as Rich said "decoded."

    Jon Jones, N0JK responded:

    "A great report from Rich. I was monitoring at the time.  Saw many people north and east of Kansas calling VK, but no decodes of VK stations.  What a great opening!

    As for the propagation mode - my theory is the opening yesterday was a "mirror image" of the December-January USA-VK openings.  So sporadic-E on each end of the path connecting to TEP to cross the geomagnetic equator.  I have seen K0GU work VK stations in past summers on 6 in a similar fashion.  The high solar flux helped the TEP part of the path.  But sporadic-E created the magic."

    George, N2CG has been operating on the 8 meter band with special permission from the FCC.  Below is an edited version of some of the notes he sent me.

    "Back in October 2021 I received from the FCC an experimental radio station construction permit and license to operate on 40.66 to 40.7 MHz and issued the call sign WM2XCS.

    On 26 January 2022 WM2XCS began transmitting as a CW beacon on 40.685 MHz at 10 Watts output into a vertical ground plane antenna.

    On 26 May I made some changes by removing the vertical antenna and in its place installed a 4 element 7 dBd gain Yagi mounted 30 feet above ground beaming toward Europe and increased the beacon output power from 10 Watts to 20 Watts.

    Now using shorter ID message at 12 WPM, 'VVV DE WM2XCS/B FN20WV NNJ AR'.  I also increased the output power from 20 Watts to 30 Watts that equates to 150 Watts ERP which is the maximum power allowed on my experimental license.

    I recently learned that Borut S50B located in Vipava, Slovenia heard the WM2XCS CW beacon on 40.685 MHz on 13 June 2022 at 2054 UTC RST 539."

    WM2XCS/B currently operates daily from 1000 to 0300 UTC.

    You can send reception reports to n2cg@verizon.net[3].

    I will reply via postal mail with my unique WM2XCS QSL card. Indicate in your reception report the date, UTC time, frequency, RST report, mode and any remarks.

    If you hear me in QSO with another authorized 8m station, please indicate the call sign of that station I was in QSO with.  As 8m propagation allows I will be looking to have CW and SSB QSOs with stations in Ireland, Slovenia and South Africa who currently are allowed to operate on 8m.

    I also encouraged reception of WM2XCS/B or WM2XCS to be spotted on DXMAPS www.dxmaps.com which lists 40 MHz reception reports."

    George hopes that the FCC might allocate an 8 meter segment for radio amateurs, but there may be objections from operators of a nationwide network of automated high elevation stations that use meteor scatter to report mountain snow pack data.

    See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8-meter_band[4] for some surprising history of amateur radio on 8 meters.

    Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW reports:

    https://youtu.be/8wy9TmC9LqY[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

    Sunspot numbers for July 14 through 20, 2022 were 133, 141, 153, 166, 125, 114, and 129, with a mean of 137.3.  10.7 cm flux was 169, 171.4, 176.2, 161.2, 149.4, 144.1, and 132.2, with a mean of 157.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 8, 7, 5, 8, 26, and 7, with a mean of 9.4.  Middle latitude A index was 5, 7, 9, 6, 10, 19, and 7,with a mean of 9.


    [1] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/19jul22/data.jpg
    [2] https://bit.ly/3oswSD3
    [3] http://verizon.net
    [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8-meter_band
    [5] https://youtu.be/8wy9TmC9LqY
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Aug 15 15:27:53 2022
    07/29/2022

    Although images of the sun this reporting week, July 21 to 27, showed plenty of sunspots, only two new spots emerged, one on July 21, and another on July 25.

    Another new sunspot appeared on July 28, but the sunspot number declined to 50 from 52 the day before.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 137.3 to 91.1, and average daily solar flux softened by 50 points to 107.6.

    The headline on spaceweather.com on July 28 said, "Quiet Sun."

    Geomagnetic indicators began this reporting week fairly active, with planetary A index at 22, then it quickly quieted down to an average of 11.7 for the week, higher than the 9.4 average reported last week.  Average middle-latitude A index increased from 9 to 10.4.

    A look back a year ago shows this cycle is progressing nicely.  In ARLP030 in 2021 average daily sunspot number was just 48.9, and average daily solar flux only 81.3.

    A year prior the average daily sunspot number in 2020 was just 3.1! That is because there were five days with no sunspots, then two days with a sunspot number of only 11, which is the minimum non-zero sunspot number.

    A sunspot number of 11 does not mean 11 sunspots.  It means there was just 1 sunspot group (which counts for 10 points) and one sunspot in that group, counting for 1, producing a total of 11, because of the arcane historical method of counting sunspots.

    Predicted solar flux shows it peaking at 130 on August 11.

    Predicted flux is 92 on July 29 to 31, 90 on August 1, 88 on August 2 to 4, 92 on August 5, 115 on August 6, 113 on August 7 and 8, then 120, 125, 130 and 125 on August 9 to 12, 120 on August 13 to 15, 118 on August 16 and 17, then 114 and 110 on August 18 and 19, 108 on August 20 and 21, then 106 and 102 on August 22 and 23, 100 on August 24 to 27, 108 on August 28 and 29, 110 on August 30 and 31, 115 on September 1 and 2, and 113 on September 3 and 4.  Solar flux peaks again at 130 on September 7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 and 12 on July 29 and 30, 8 on July 31 and August 1, 5 on August 2, 8 on August 3 and 4, 5 on August 5 to 10, 8 on August 11 and 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, 22 on August 17, 15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 25, 10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28 and 29, 12 and 10 on August 30 and 31, and 5 on September 1 to 6.

    USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report, 2200 UTC on 28 Jul 2022

    https://bit.ly/3votD3A[1]

    OK1HH wrote on July 28:

    "Over the last seven days, solar activity has been steadily decreasing.  From some class C flares to the 'almost no chance of flares' announcement today.  But we observed some interesting anomalies.  For example, geomagnetic disturbance on July 21 caused two improvements in ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions around 1400 and 1930 UTC. A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 23rd at 0259 UTC.  The impact triggered a G1-class geomagnetic storm and in the early hours of the morning UTC, 6-meter band users were able to establish a series of contacts between central Europe and the US East Coast.

    The proton density in the solar wind, which suddenly rose on 27 July between 2000 and 2100 UTC, was accompanied by a significant improvement in shortwave propagation between Europe and the Caribbean, while closed at the same time the path between Europe and North America.

    A small coronal hole of positive polarity located just to the north of the solar equator that crossed the central meridian on July 26 is expected to influence solar wind starting July 29.  Geomagnetic activity will increase again."

    KD6JUI wrote:

    "I go out in my kayak once per week to operate QRP.  Today, Thursday, July 28, I set out on Lake Solano (northern CA) not expecting much action due to a low solar flux (93.4) and predicted MUF of about 14 MHz.

    When I first checked 17m I heard a CW pileup apparently going after a Swiss station.  I had a couple contacts on 17 and 20m.  A couple hours later, I moved from the middle of the lake to the shade of a tree along the bank (temps were in the high 90s).  My loop antenna was half surrounded by foliage, which I figured would interfere with my signal.  Nonetheless, I gave 17m CW a try again, and contacted F8IHE almost immediately.  All he could copy was my call sign, but that was enough for me!

    Always a surprise."

    What are sunspots?

    https://bit.ly/3vk6GhW[2]

    Fun Morse Code app:

    https://morsle.fun/help/[3]

    A fun one-hour twice weekly relaxed CW activity, the Slow Speed Test, every Friday and Sunday:

    http://www.k1usn.com/sst.html[4]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for July 21 through 27, 2022 were 124, 107, 96, 80, 100, 78, and 53, with a mean of 91.1.  10.7 cm flux was 121.7, 114.7, 110.5, 107.1, 102.3, 98.8, and 98, with a mean of 107.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 11, 17, 9, 6, 8, and 9, with a mean of 11.7.  Middle latitude A index was 14, 11, 15, 9, 8, 7, and 9, with a mean of 10.4.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3votD3A
    [2] https://bit.ly/3vk6GhW
    [3] https://morsle.fun/help/
    [4] http://www.k1usn.com/sst.html
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Aug 15 15:27:57 2022
    08/05/2022

    Solar activity continued to decline this week, with average daily sunspot number dropping from 91.1 to 36.6 and average solar flux at 95.7, down from 107.6 the week prior.

    Thursday's sunspot number was above the average for the previous seven days at 52.  Solar flux on Thursday was above the previous seven day average at 108.8.  The 2300 UTC flux was 111.3.

    We've not seen lower values since mid-April in bulletin ARLP015 with average sunspot number at 34.4, and the end of February in ARLP008 with average solar flux at 95.4.

    To track solar cycle 25 progress, I like to compare current averages against the same numbers from last year.  In the 2021 version of ARLP031, average daily sunspot numbers were 33.1 (lower by 3.5 from this week's report), and average solar flux was 83, down 12.7 from the current average.

    The lower activity was quite noticeable over the past week on 10 and 12 meters, but there must still be some daily sporadic-E, from what I've seen on an email list devoted to 10 meter propagation beacons. I have one myself, K7RA/B transmitting CW from CN87uq on 28.2833 MHz.  The outlook from the USAF space weather group shows a meager forecast for solar flux, this one from forecasters Hoseth and Strandness on Thursday. The latest forecast is a bit more optimistic than the Wednesday version, with solar flux at 112 instead of 100 for the next few days.

    Predicted solar flux is 112 on August 5 to 7, 110 on August 8 and 9, 112 on August 10, 114 on August 11 and 12, 98 on August 13 and 14, 100 on August 15 and 16, 98 on August 17 and 18, then 96, 96 and 98 on August 19 to 21, 96 again on August 22 and 23, 92 on August 24 to 28, 90 and 92 on August 29 and 30, 94 on August 31 through September 1, 96 on September 2 and 3, then 98 on September 4 to 10, and 100 on September 11 and 12.

    Predicted planetary A index 5 on August 5, 8 on August 6 and 7, then 5, 14, 12, 18 and 12 on August 8 to 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, then 22 on August 17, 15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 25, then 10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28 and 29, then 12 and 10 on August 30 and 31, 5 on September 1 to 6, 8 on September 7 to 8, and 5 on September 9 to 12. OK1HH wrote:

    "Throughout the period, solar activity was low, the Earth's magnetic field quiet to unsettled.  Shortwave propagation conditions were average to slightly below average.

    An interesting phenomenon for observers may have been a giant solar prominence - a loop of plasma on the sun's eastern limb. But even more interesting was the report of a farside sunspot.  So big it is changing the way the sun vibrates.  Helioseismic maps reveal its acoustic echo not far behind the sun's southeastern limb! The sunspot will turn to face Earth a few days from now."

    Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW put out a new forecast on July 29.

    https://youtu.be/F3T4VI1VSPc[1]

    Recently Dr. Skov sent this out (I edited) to her Patreon subscribers:

    "This week the Sun is a mixed bag of active regions, coronal holes

    and solar eye candy.  Although we aren't expecting any strong storming at Earth, we do have a big-flare player in view and are expecting some fast solar wind over the next few days (and then again sporadically next week).  This might give aurora photographers at high latitudes a brief show, but it likely wont be much, if any better than the weak shows we got this past week.

    Solar flux is finally back into the triple digits, which means decent radio propagation again on Earth's day side and along with the reasonably low risk for radio blackouts, amateur radio operators as well as GPS users should enjoy better than average signal reception (and transmission)."

    I like to watch this link to see what might be coming over the next few days on our Sun:

    https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[2]

    On Thursday night over on the left I am seeing lots of white splotches, perhaps indicating areas of magnetic complexity and maybe sunspots arriving soon.  The horizon is at -90 degrees.

    Although the STEREO mission has survived way past the initial design life, one of the probes has been gone for a few years, leaving us a very limited view of the sun.

    I would love to see a replacement probe, which I have heard might cost twenty-million dollars.  Or perhaps a brand new advanced design?  Perhaps one of our domestic billionaires fascinated by space flight could make this happen.

    Newsweek has solar news:

    https://bit.ly/3oZmYcB[3]

    Large sunspot emerging:

    https://bit.ly/3oXVMuQ[4]

    Ginormous:

    https://bit.ly/3QpmU1A[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to: k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for July 28 through August 3, 2022 were 50, 40, 27, 39, 32, 31, and 37, with a mean of 36.6.  10.7 cm flux was 93, 90.8, 94.3, 95.4, 97.8, 98.8, and 99.9, with a mean of 95.7.  Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 7, 11, 8, 9, and 8, with a mean of 7.7.  Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 12, 8, 10, and 7, with a mean of 8.6.


    [1] https://youtu.be/F3T4VI1VSPc
    [2] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [3] https://bit.ly/3oZmYcB
    [4] https://bit.ly/3oXVMuQ
    [5] https://bit.ly/3QpmU1A
    [6] http://arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Aug 15 15:28:05 2022
    08/12/2022

    Solar activity did a rebound this week, back to more active levels.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 36.6 to 65.4.

    Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux rose from 95.7 to 111.9.

    Solar wind caused geomagnetic numbers to rise, with average planetary A index going from 7.7 to 14.4, and middle latitude numbers from 8.6 to 12.1.

    An improved outlook shows solar flux over the next month peaking at 116 on September 2 to 4.  The forecast from USAF/NOAA on Thursday evening was improved from Wednesday.

    A look at ARLP032 from 2021 gives a perspective on solar cycle progress.  A year ago, average sunspot number was 6 and average solar flux was just 74.8.  Quite a difference from 65.4 and 111.9 during the past week.

    Predicted flux values are 115 on August 12 to 14, 110 on August 15 to 18, 108 on August 19, 104 on August 20 and 21, then 98, 100, 102, 100, 102, and 100 on August 22 to 27, then 102 on August 28 to 30, then 108 and 114 on August 31 and September 1, 116 on September 2 to 4, 112 on September 5 to 7.  110 on September 8 and 9, then 108 on September 10 to 12, 106 on September 13, then 104 on September 14 to 16, 102 on September 17 and 98 on September 18.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on August 12, 5 on August 13 to 16 then 10, 12 and 15 on August 17 to 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August 31 through September 2, then 14, 18, 14, 10 and 8 on September 3 to 7, and 5 on September 8 to 12, then 22 on September 13, 15 on September 14 and 15, 8 on September 16, and 5 on September 17 to 22.

    OK1HH commented:

    "A geomagnetic disturbance rarely comes completely unexpectedly. And even more so in a situation where its source cannot be located (or selected from several locations).  Moreover, lasting five days. All this happened between August 7th and 11th.

    At higher latitudes, the 'STEVE' phenomenon was sighted on August 7 (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement).  STEVE is a recent discovery.  It looks like an aurora, but it's not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE[1]

    It all started with a positive phase of disturbance in the ionosphere, when shortwave propagation improved.  The development continued with a deterioration of propagation in the negative phase on August 8, followed by generally below average conditions in the following days.  With a strong influence of sporadic layer E, whose activity usually increases as the Perseids meteor shower approaches maximum (expected on 12 and 13 August).  They are also called the 'Tears of St. Lawrence'.

    Starting August 12 onward, we expect a longer mostly quiet period."

    NASA expects increasing activity:

    https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5[2]

    Always appreciate The Sun Now page from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

    https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[3]

    Yet another cycle prediction method:

    https://bit.ly/3SKm29J[4]

    Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a 200 minute part 2 of a course on ground effects:

    https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10, 2022 were 52, 69, 69, 87, 63, 58, and 60, with a mean of 65.4.  10.7 cm flux was 108.8, 112.2, 116.3, 116.1, 113, 109.4, and 107.6, with a mean of 111.9.  Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 4, 24, 31, 19, and 11, with a mean of 14.4.  Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 20, 21, 15, and 10, with a mean of 12.1.


    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE
    [2] https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5
    [3] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [4] https://bit.ly/3SKm29J
    [5] https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 19 23:36:39 2022
    08/19/2022

    At 2334 UTC on August 17, the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

    "Periods of G1 conditions expected during 19 and 20 Aug due to the combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream and several coronal mass ejections observed in the last few days.  There is a chance of isolated periods of G2 over 19 and 20 Aug."

    Local TV newscasts here in Seattle noted the possibility of aurora Thursday night, although observers would need to travel to dark areas away from the city for any chance of successful viewing.  They recommended using a tripod mounted camera pointed north with a long exposure time.  This is good advice, as often the dramatic aurora photos are done this way and viewing with the naked eye you see a much less dramatic image.

    Last week we noted increasing solar activity, and it continued. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 36.6 to 65.4 last week, to 95.6 in the current reporting period, August 11 to 17.  Average daily solar flux went from 95.7 to 111.9 last week, and 123.7 this week.

    But solar flux values have pulled back in recent days, with a peak of 134.3 at 1700 UTC on August 15, followed by the standard 2000 UTC local noon readings of 128.5, 122.7, and 116.5 on August 16 to 18.

    Predicted solar flux is 125 and 120 August 19 and 20, 115 on August 21 to 23, then 110 on August 24 and 25, then 100, 94, 96 and 98 on August 26 to 29, then 100, 108 and 114 on August 30 through September 1, then 116 on September 2 and 3, 112 on September 4, 108 on September 5 and 6, then 115, 120, 124 and 126 on September 7 to 10, 124 on September 11 and 12, then 122, 118, 112, 108 and 102 on September 13 to 17, then 100 on September 18 and 19, and 94 on September 20 to 23, then climbing to 116 at the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 30, 25 and 8 on August 19 to 21, 5 on August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August 31 through September 2, then 24, 28, 18 and 10 on September 3 to 6, and 14, 8, 10 and 8 on September 7 to 10, then 5, 5, 20 and 15 on September 11 to 14, then 12, 12 and 8 on September 15 to 17, and 5 on September 18 to 22, then 12 on September 23, and 8 on September 24 to 26.

    OK1HH writes:

    "A week ago (since August 12) solar activity started to increase very slowly.  Since August 13, the eruptive activity in the active sunspot AR3079 in the southwest of the solar disk has increased.  On August 14 it was already possible to predict massive geomagnetic disturbances for August 17 and 18 based on the observed CMEs.  The solar wind speed slowly decreased until August 16.  In the meantime, eruptive activity increased in AR3078, where moderate strength eruptions were observed daily since 15 August.

    The sunspot group AR3078 developed a delta-class magnetic field, continued to grow, and continued to produce medium-sized flares that caused minor shortwave radio blackouts.  The strongest eruption to date, an M5 category burst on August 16 at 0758 UTC caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean.

    A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) added their effect to a possible 'cannibal CME event' (if a second CME could overtake and engulf the first, creating a mishmash of the two).  The forecast for a massive geomagnetic disturbance has been extended to August 17 to 19.

    Active sunspot AR3078 is producing strong solar flares of class M for the third consecutive day.  The most recent, an M2 explosion on 17 August (1345 UT), hurled a plume of cool dark plasma into space.

    But like the other CMEs produced by AR3078 this week, this one will pass through the southern edge of Earth's impact zone.  So the disturbance won't be as widespread as if the CME had hit Earth directly.

    The increased activity on 15 to 17 August caused improved shortwave propagation conditions and a noticeable increase in MUF.  The best day was August 17.  A significant deterioration and decrease in MUF occurred on 18 August.  In the following days, the solar flare activity and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances start to decrease.  A calming trend can be expected after about 22 August."

    Tamitha Skov says "Don't worry, this is not a Carrington Event", in an 84 minute video titled "Incoming Solar Storm Crush":

    https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo[1]

    Even Newsweek is reporting it:

    https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw[2]

    https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg[3]

    And of course, British tabloids:

    https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc[4]

    And NOAA:

    https://bit.ly/3A537Ob[5]

    Violent solar activity:

    https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw[6]

    Strong storm:

    https://bit.ly/3c998kT[7]

    Aurora in Montana:

    https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK[8]

    Radiation storm!

    https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR[9]

    John Kludt, K7SYS asked, "I recently moved from the Atlanta, Georgia, area to Sandpoint, Idaho. My question is that in geomagnetic forecasts they make a distinction between 'mid-latitudes' and 'high-latitudes.'   Where do 'mid-latitudes' stop and 'high-latitudes' begin?

    The other mystery to me is looking at my logbook since moving here two years ago, it would seem I was working more Dx at solar cycle minimum than I am now.  The station is the same for the entire period and all of the numbers I track on my antennas are stable.

    One of the conclusions I have come to, maybe incorrectly, is 'The good news is the sun is more active and the bad news is the sun is more active.'   As with so many things, there is no free lunch."

    My response: I don't know of any standards specifying what defines high latitude or low latitude, except for North America, Atlanta at 33.8 degrees north would be low latitude, Sandpoint at 48.3 degrees would be moderately high for North America, and Fairbanks, Alaska at 64.8 degrees would be high.

    I remember years ago K7VV was living in Alaska and reported to me that during a particularly long period of high geomagnetic activity, there just was no HF propagation, due to the concentration of the disturbance closer to the poles.

    You might notice better propagation from Atlanta.  I've noticed using PSKreporter.info on 10 meters FT8, looking at the "country of callsign" setting, often it shows lots of propagation from the SE states and nothing here in the northwest.  Don't know why that is, but gradually the propagation will drift out this way.  So Atlanta being 3 hours earlier will show 10 meter propagation before we get it here.  It seems to me that often HF propagation from southern states is better than it is here for us in the Pacific Northwest, what Jack Bock, K7ZR (SK) referred to as the "sufferin' sevens".

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12]

    For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14]

    More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16].

    Sunspot numbers for August 11 through 17, 2022 were 58, 97, 116, 104, 92, 119, and 83, with a mean of 95.6.  10.7 cm flux was 114.8, 119.5, 124.2, 125.5, 130.6, 128.5, and 122.7, with a mean of 123.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 7, 10, 7, 6, 5, and 31, with a mean of 11.7.  Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 10, 9, 6, 5, and 22, with a mean of 10.


    [1] https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo
    [2] https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw
    [3] https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg
    [4] https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc
    [5] https://bit.ly/3A537Ob
    [6] https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw
    [7] https://bit.ly/3c998kT
    [8] https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK
    [9] https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [15] http://k9la.us/
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 26 16:49:44 2022
    08/26/2022

    On August 18 a new sunspot group emerged, another on August 21, then two more on August 23, and three more on August 25, when the sunspot number jumped to 94 from 46 the previous day.  Total sunspot area more than doubled from Wednesday to Thursday.

    Solar activity overall was down slightly for the reporting week, August 18-24, with average daily sunspot number declining from 60.8 during the previous seven days to 58.7, and average solar flux from 123.7 to 104.5.

    Planetary A index changed from an average of 11.7 to 12.6, and middle latitude A index measured at a single magnetometer in Virginia was 11, after an average of 10 last week.

    As an indicator of rising solar activity, a year ago this bulletin reported average daily sunspot number at 17.7, 41 points below this week's report.

    The Thursday night forecast from the 557th weather wing at Offut Air Force Base shows a probable peak of solar flux for the near term at 130 on September 11 and again on October 8.

    Predicted solar flux is 120 on August 26-27 (up from 105 in the previous day's forecast), 115 on August 28, 110 on August 29-31, 115 on September 1-2, 116 on September 3-4, 112 on September 5, 108 on September 6-7, then 115, 120, 124 and 130 on September 8-11, then 128, 120, 118, 105 and 102 on September 12-16, 98 on September 17-18, 96 on September 19-21, 94 on September 22-24, then 92, 98 and 100 on September 25-27, then 108, 114, 116 and 116 on September 28 through October 1.

    Predicted planetary A index has some surprises in store, at 5 on August 26, 8 on August 27-28, 10 on August 29, 5 on August 30-31, 8 on September 1-2, then jumping way up to 30, 38 and 20 on September 3-5, then 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September 6-10, 5 on September 11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on September 18-20, 5 on September 21-22, 12 on September 23, then  8 on September 24-26, 5 on September 27-29, then back up to 30, 38, 20, 15 and 18 on September 30 through October 4, an apparent echo of the prediction for September 3-7.

    The above predictions were from USAF forecasters Easterlin and Sadovsky.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "As in the previous solar rotation, the Sun's activity continued to decline. Geomagnetic activity, however, has increased. More pronounced eruptive activity was mainly in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk.

    "The active sunspot, AR3078, produced several M-class solar flares and more than a dozen C-class flares. Most of the eruptions hurled particles into space. The first CME hit Earth's magnetic field on August 20. The next active sunspot group, AR3085, behaved similarly after reaching the same active heliographic longitude as the previous sunspot, AR3078.

    "Sunspot AR3085 grew more than ten times larger and turned into a double sunspot group with cores almost as wide as the Earth. Finally, a new sunspot, AR3088, appeared, again in the southern hemisphere of the Sun.

    "Attention is now drawn to a large coronal hole in the southeastern solar disk that could affect the solar wind after it appears near the central meridian.

    "With the current type of development, predictions of further events are more difficult than usual. Either way, we now expect a quasi-periodic increase in solar activity."

    Here is a news article about a large sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3KhmOHj[1]

    British tabloid sunspot news:

    https://bit.ly/3CvCdSz[2]

    Here is an article about a planet-sized sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3PL6IXy[3]

    A Nature World News story about a big sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3csY16x[4]

    A report about eleven discoveries and the coming solar max, from American Geophysical Union:

    https://bit.ly/3R95HcW[5]

    From Space.com, the threat of unexpected flares:

    https://bit.ly/3AL32AS[6]

    Here is a paper on solar rotations:

    https://bit.ly/3e0p5ux[7]

    I did not include an article titled "Destructive solar storms are possible as Sun approaches height of its terrifying solar cycle." The article claimed that Solar Cycle 25 peak will be a year from now, rather than the consensus prediction of 2025.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8] .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

    Sunspot numbers for August 18 through 24, 2022 were 83, 74, 56, 56, 44, 52, and 46, with a mean of 58.7. 10.7 cm flux was 116.5, 105.4, 101.5, 97, 102.6, 100.9, and 107.8, with a mean of 104.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 20, 14, 14, 7, 4, and 3, with a mean of 12.6. Middle latitude A index was 19, 15, 16, 13, 7, 3, and 4, with a mean of 11.
     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3KhmOHj
    [2] https://bit.ly/3CvCdSz
    [3] https://bit.ly/3PL6IXy
    [4] https://bit.ly/3csY16x
    [5] https://bit.ly/3R95HcW
    [6] https://bit.ly/3AL32AS
    [7] https://bit.ly/3e0p5ux
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 2 19:05:35 2022
    09/02/2022

    The past week saw many interesting events. The DRAO observatory at Penticton, British Columbia (the source of 10.7 cm solar flux measurements) was overwhelmed by solar flares, and at 2000 UTC on August 28 reported a solar flux value of 251.9, and the next day at 1700 UTC, a value of 357.1.

    The 2000 UTC local noon numbers are the official solar flux number for each day, so for the August 28 value I chose to report the 2300 UTC number of 133.5 instead.

    I checked with astronomer Andrew Gray at Penticton, and he reported, "The high values are indeed because of solar activity, both yesterday and today flares occurred right during our flux measurements."

    Solar activity increased this reporting week (August 25-31) with average daily sunspot numbers rising from 58.7 to 74.9 and solar flux from 104.5 to 123.8.

    Without that correction for August 28, average daily solar flux would have been 140.8 instead of 123.8.

    I have seen these errors in the past, but they are rare. When they occur, there is only 1/3 chance they will happen during the daily 2000 UTC reading, which sends them into the official daily solar flux data.

    Note that NOAA did not correct the high false value:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt[1]

    Average daily A index was a little lower, the planetary values shifting from 12.6 to 10.1 and middle latitude from 11 to 9.4.

    Three new sunspot groups appeared on August 25 at the beginning of the reporting week, but none until September 1, with two new sunspot groups. The daily sunspot number rose from 42 on Wednesday to 67 on Thursday. Total sunspot area peaked on August 27.

    Predicted solar flux is more optimistic in the Thursday night version, as opposed to the Wednesday forecast reported in the ARRL Letter.

    Instead of 110 on September 2, the latest forecast is 116, 118 and 118 on September 2-4, 115 on September 5, 110 on September 6-8, then 118, 124, 130 and 128 on September 9-12, then 120, 117, 105 and 102 on September 13-16, then 98 on September 17-18, then 104, 102 and 108 on September 19-21, 118 on September 22-23, 124 and 125 on September 24-25, 120 on September 26-28, 115 on September 29 to October 1, then 112 on October 2, 108 on October 3-4, then 115, 120, 124 and 130 on October 5-8.

    Flux values may briefly dip below 100 in mid-October.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15, 30, 25 and 15 on September 2-6, 10 on September 7-8, 12 and 8 on September 9-10, 5 on September 11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17, 5 on September 18-23, then 14, 10 and 8 on September 24-26, 5 on September 27-29, then 30, 38, 20, 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September 30 through October 7, and 5 on October 8-9.

    At 0209 UTC on September 2 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:  "Disturbed conditions caused by a high speed wind stream in a geoeffective direction are expected September 3-5."

    Frantislav K. Janda, OK1HH shares his weekly commentary:

    "The recent rise in solar activity, especially during August 27-30, was triggered by two sunspot groups, AR3088, which on 29 August fell behind the western limb of the solar disk, and AR3089, which on 30 August passed through the central meridian, so entered the region of the so-called present active longitudes.

    "Both sunspot groups are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun, while in both were daily registered flares of moderate magnitude. CMEs have been registered in four cases. Given the proximity of the coronal hole, we would expect a significant increase in geomagnetic activity, but only at first approach.

    "However, there was only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity, confirming the current solar wind path models. We expect it to intensify and then increase in geomagnetic activity since about September 4 onwards. A further gradual increase in total solar activity can be expected a few days later."

    I (K7RA) noticed some curious 12 meter propagation, testing the band using FT8 on https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[2]. This way I can see instantly where my signal is heard, and get accurate, objective signal reports.

    On August 31 at 2038-2116 UTC my calls were heard nowhere in North America outside my local area, which were stations 4-54 miles away. But all stations hearing me were in a straight line running through Mexico and Central America, then down to Brazil.

    XE1GLL, XE1EE, and XE1AQY, down to V31MA, LU6FL and PU3MSR. No 12 meter resonant antenna, just a 32 foot end-fed indoor wire fed with a 4:1 UnUn transformer and automatic antenna tuner.

    Other curious 12 meter behavior was on Saturday, August 27 at 2252 UTC when the only stations hearing me (FT8 again) were ZL2OK at 7,120 miles with a strong signal report of +4 dB and WH6FXV at 2,649 miles.

    Ten minutes later at 2302 UTC JA1QGI was the only station reporting, from 4,746 miles away. Four minutes later JN4MIV reported. At 2312 UTC ZL2OK was back, this time reporting -4 dB, 8 dB lower than the earlier report.

    At 2315 UTC I worked JH6RKI and copied several more Japanese stations.

    Newsweek Magazine has been reporting interesting solar news recently:

    https://bit.ly/3q5XACl[3]

    And Forbes.

    https://bit.ly/3AOWD6G[4]

    Is "The Independent" one of the UK Fleet Street tabloids? Perhaps a RSGB member could inform us.

    https://bit.ly/3e5kJlF[5]

    Another wonderful report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, ham radio's own Space Weather Woman:

    https://youtu.be/hh_EPRjMmzY[6]

    In the following links, many are presented for your amusement only. I do not believe that a huge solar flare will ever engulf the Earth.

    A canyon of fire: https://bit.ly/3RcWSiy[7]

    EarthSky reports (page down): https://bit.ly/3wRStK1[8]

    A report four weeks old, but still relevant: https://bit.ly/3KH0yH4[9]

    Growing sunspot a threat: https://bit.ly/3cEgFZt[10]

    Our angry Sun: https://bit.ly/3cHMiBm[11]

    This one is a bit over the top: https://bit.ly/3TzEnqd[12]

    From a few days ago: https://bit.ly/3CSJFY3[13]

    Radio blackouts: https://bit.ly/3Rwwpwa[14]

    Flares and blackouts: https://bit.ly/3KH2jEa[15]

    More Flares: https://bit.ly/3e5ninN[16]

    Existential threat: https://bit.ly/3Qc3MDE[17]

    Flare facing Earth: https://bit.ly/3q5gzgv[18]

    Sunspot somehow destroys Earth: https://bit.ly/3cHGSGy[19]

    The 61st annual All Asian DX Phone contest is this weekend.

    Information can be found here: https://bit.ly/3ALPkwa[20]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[21].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[22] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[23] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[24] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[25] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[26] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[27] .

    Sunspot numbers for August 25 through 31, 2022 were 94, 88, 84, 79, 87, 50, and 42, with a mean of 74.9. 10.7 cm flux was 117.8, 118.6, 127.5, 133.5, 130.6, 125.6, and 113.3, with a mean of 123.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 14, 7, 14, 13, and 13, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 11, 7, 13, 13, and 12, with a mean of 9.4.


    [1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
    [2] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [3] https://bit.ly/3q5XACl
    [4] https://bit.ly/3AOWD6G
    [5] https://bit.ly/3e5kJlF
    [6] https://youtu.be/hh_EPRjMmzY
    [7] https://bit.ly/3RcWSiy
    [8] https://bit.ly/3wRStK1
    [9] https://bit.ly/3KH0yH4
    [10] https://bit.ly/3cEgFZt
    [11] https://bit.ly/3cHMiBm
    [12] https://bit.ly/3TzEnqd
    [13] https://bit.ly/3CSJFY3
    [14] https://bit.ly/3Rwwpwa
    [15] https://bit.ly/3KH2jEa
    [16] https://bit.ly/3e5ninN
    [17] https://bit.ly/3Qc3MDE
    [18] https://bit.ly/3q5gzgv
    [19] https://bit.ly/3cHGSGy
    [20] https://bit.ly/3ALPkwa
    [21] k7ra@arrl.net
    [22] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [23] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [24] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [25] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [26] http://k9la.us/
    [27] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 9 23:22:15 2022
    09/09/2022

     This week (September 1 to 7) two new sunspot groups emerged on September 1, two more on September 2, one more on September 5, another on September 6 another on September 7 and one more on September 8 when the sunspot number rose to 75, 7 points above the average for the previous seven days.

    But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 74.9 to 68, while average daily solar flux rose just two points from 123.8 to 125.8.

    On Thursday night the sun is peppered with spots, but none are magnetically complex and solar flux seems listless at 126.6, barely above the average for the previous seven days.

    Geomagnetic indicators were way up, average daily planetary A index rose from 10.1 to 24.6, while middle-latitude numbers increased from 9.4 to 17.4.

    September 4 was the most active day when planetary A index was 64. On that day the college A index in Fairbanks, Alaska was 91.

    Predicted solar flux is 125 on September 9 to 13, 120 on September 14, 115 on September 15 and 16, then 125, 126 and 120 on September 17 to 19, 125 on September 20 and 21, 115 on September 22 to 24, 120 on September 25 to 28, 118 on September 29 and 30, 115 and 125 on October 1 and 2, 120 on October 3 and 4, 122 on October 5, 120 on October 6 and 7, 125 on October 8 to 11, 126 on October 12, 125 on October 13 and 14, and 126 on October 15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 50 on October 1.  Otherwise,  8 on September 9 to 11, 5 on September 12, 20 on September 13 and 14, 15 on September 15, 8 on September 16 and 17, 5 on September 18 to 22, then 12 and 10 on September 23 and 24, 14 on September 25 to 27, 8 on September 28 and 29, then 22, 50, 25, 16, 12 and 10 on September 30 through October 5, 8 on October 6 to 8, then 5, 12, 15 and 10 on October 9 to 12, 8 on October 13 and 14, and 5 on October 15 to 19.

    OK1HH writes:

    "Over the past seven days, a large coronal hole moved from the central meridian to the western limb of the solar disk.  Its position relatively close to sunspot group AR3089 meant a high probability of a geomagnetic disturbance in the following days, since September 4.  Its onset as early as 3 September (class G1) was related to the intensification of the solar wind and the opening of a rift in the Earth's magnetic field.  The solar wind flow from the large coronal hole finally hit Earth's magnetic field on September 4 and triggered a G2 class geomagnetic storm.

    At the same time, two sunspot groups so large that they affected the Sun's vibrations developed on the far side of the Sun.  These were AR3088, which had last left the Sun a week earlier and was the source of a large CME heading for Venus on September 5.

    On September 7, AR3092 crossed the central meridian and had a really long tail above the surface of the Sun.  It was a filament coming out of the core of the spot and curling up into the solar atmosphere.  Inside the filament was a long tube of relatively cool, dark plasma.

    Thereafter the Sun was relatively quiet.  The solar disk was dotted by sunspots, but these have a stable magnetic field, so the chance of flares was low.

    Earth's magnetic field was mostly disturbed on the 3rd to the 6th. Thereafter was unsettled to active on the remaining days.  Shortwave propagation was below average, worst at the end of the disturbance on September 6.  An increase in f0F2 occurred at the beginning of the disturbance on September 4.

    Now a few quiet days followed by another disturbance on 13 and 14 September is expected."

    I (K7RA) have been seeing more strange 12 meter propagation recently.  Over and over for several days using FT8 as a propagation test tool with pskreporter.info, I would call CQ and see that only stations in Florida were receiving my signal.  It looks very odd on the map.  Florida does have a very large ham population, but this just seems so peculiar.

    Regarding the recent overloading of the sensors at Penticton, I noted I had seen this before, but didn't realize how rare it was.  I paged back through the DRAO archives, and unless I missed something, the last one was in 2015 on June 22 when the 2000 UTC flux reading was 246.9.  The noon solar flux the following day was only 116.1.

    Tamitha Skov's report is a week old, but too late for last week's bulletin:  https://youtu.be/zggTNrpa8Pg[1]

    Two massive sunspots:  https://bit.ly/3RKKrKI[2]

    Longtime contributor David Moore sent this:  https://bit.ly/3qIDfDL[3]

    Big explosion:  https://bit.ly/3Ddd2EC[4]

    Our angry sun:  https://bit.ly/3B5ZKHg[5]

    So huge:  https://bit.ly/3qlHQLT[6]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for September 1 through 7, 2022 were 67, 71, 68, 62, 79, 56, and 73, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 116.3, 129.8, 123.4, 128.3, 130.2, 126.2, and 126.1, with a mean of 125.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 25, 64, 32, 20, and 14, with a mean of 24.6.  Middle latitude A index was 9, 10, 23, 33, 21, 14, and 12, with a mean of 17.4.


    [1] https://youtu.be/zggTNrpa8Pg
    [2] https://bit.ly/3RKKrKI
    [3] https://bit.ly/3qIDfDL
    [4] https://bit.ly/3Ddd2EC
    [5] https://bit.ly/3B5ZKHg
    [6] https://bit.ly/3qlHQLT
    [7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 16 14:37:41 2022
    09/16/2022

    Solar activity bounced back this reporting week, September 8-14, when average daily sunspot numbers jumped from 68 to 92.7, and average solar flux from 125.8 to 141.3.

    Fewer CMEs and flares were evident, with average planetary A index declining from 24.6 to 10.7, and middle latitude numbers from 17.4 to 10.6.

    New sunspot groups appeared, one on September 8, three on September 10, and one more on September 13. Total sunspot area (in millionths of a solar disc) on September 12-14 rose from 370 to 870 to 1240, the highest value in over a month.

    The sunspot number was highest on September 10 at 122.

    During this week two years ago, there were no sunspots at all, and average daily solar flux was only 69.7, over 56 points lower than this week, demonstrating the continued progress of Solar Cycle 25.

    The latest (Thursday) forecast from space weather folks at Offut AirForce Base shows predicted solar flux peaking at 150 on October 9,but with flux over the next few days following this bulletin less optimistic than the numbers in the bulletin preview in Thursday's ARRL Letter.

    Predicted flux values on September 16-17 are 140 and 135, then 125 on September 18-19, 120 on September 20-29, 125 on September 30 through October 6, 130 on October 7-8, then 150, 148, 143 and 140 on October 9-12, then 136, 130, 125 and 120 on October 13-16, 125 on October 17-18, and 120 on October 19-26.

    Predicted planetary A index shows moderate levels of geomagnetic activity until October 1-2. The forecast is 15, 18 and 10 on September 16-18, 5 on September 19-23, then 10 on September 24, 14 on September 25-27, 8 on September 28-29, then 22, 50, 30, 20 and 12 on September 30 through October 4, then 15, 12, 10, 8 and 5 on October 5-9, then 10, 8, 5, 15, 20 and 12 on October 10-15, then 5 on October 16-19, then 12 and 10 on October 20-21, and 14 on October 22-24.

    The Autumnal Equinox is only a week away!

    Nice solar video from last month:

    https://bit.ly/3BH9ZDm[1]

    Here is NOAA's latest forecast discussion:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion[2]

    Comments from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Although the Sun was speckled a week ago, all areas were quiet and overall, the Sun's activity was low. After that, activity began to grow rapidly in the northern hemisphere.

    "Sunspot group AR3098 grew larger and on September 11, a C6 class flare was registered. The old area AR3088, which was active during the last rotation of the Sun, returned in the southeast solar limb.

    "Two solar wind shock waves hit our planet on September 14 at 0630 UTC and 2313 UTC. The second of them significantly expanded the speed of the solar wind, started a disturbance of the Earth's magnetic field and caused very uneven shortwave propagation conditions, especially on routes leading through higher latitudes. Auroral distortion of signals were observed when passing through inhomogeneities in the auroral belt.

    "Further similar disturbances can be expected on September 17th, a calm after September 18th and a decrease in solar activity is expected after September 20th."

    The following is edited from an email from David Greer, N4KZ in Frankfort, Kentucky:

    "With the Sun perking up from its long sleep, one of my favorite bands, 12 meters, is also coming alive. I've worked FT8 DX on 12 meters from time to time for months, but things really came alive for me from 1236-1356 UTC on September 14 when I worked 22 DX stations back-to-back on SSB.

    "I called CQ and was answered by a Dutch station and after that, stations just kept calling and calling. I put 22 DX stations in my log. Most were from Europe, but I also worked the Middle East and Northwest Africa, 18 different DX entities all together.

    "Some signals were quite strong, mostly because they ran high power with beam antennas but one station was thrilled to make the trip across the pond from Europe because, he said, 'he was running 100 watts to an indoor dipole in his apartment.'

    "Some commented it was their first ever 12-meter QSO. I hear that often from stations everywhere. Some say they didn't think anyone ever used 12 meters. Since 2000, I have 12 meter WAS and confirmed 182 DX entities on 12 alone.

    "I often call CQ on SSB when the band seems dead, only to have a rare DX station respond, such as VP8LP in the Falkland Islands.

    "I was on 12-meter SSB the first night hams in the USA were authorized to use the band in 1985. That night, the band was wild because of a big sporadic-E opening and strong signals were coming from all directions across North America. It was a blast!

    "I am fortunate to have a decent station -- 8-element log periodic antenna up 50 feet from a hilltop QTH with a kilowatt amp. But many signals were so strong on September 14 that I am sure others with modest stations could work many DX stations. I had to QRT at 1356 UTC even though others were still calling. I got back on the band later in the day and worked MW0ZZK in Wales. He was 20 over S9.

    "Don't forget about 12 meters. When 10 meters is open, 12 is open too. And don't forget about the phone band allocation, which starts at 24.930 MHz in the USA. I've heard some out of band because they didn't know where the band edge was.

    "A great propagation tool is the MUF web page operated by KC2G at https://prop.kc2g.com/ [3]. I monitor it constantly. It tells me what bands to check out and where I should aim my antenna. Plus, it has other interesting data in the menu."

    Thanks to Dave for mentioning that great web site. I notice it has a section labeled eSSN, which is Effective Sunspot Number, derived from 10.7 cm solar flux. More about eSSN from NorthWest Research Associates, based here in the Seattle area:

    https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html[4]

    Also, I would like to add that often 12 meters is open when 10 meters seems dead.

    Here is more crazy solar news:

    https://bit.ly/3QIrXKd[5]

    Here is Newsweek again:

    https://bit.ly/3UhnuAS[6]

    Some solar wind news:

    https://bit.ly/3BLjh1i[7]

    Lucky us! A brand new video, dated today, from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/OAOmI-3YxUA[8]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 8 through 14, 2022 were 75, 72, 122, 113, 117, 93, and 57, with a mean of 92.7. 10.7 cm flux was 126.6, 126.2, 135.9, 151.5, 150.4, 154.1, and 144.3, with a mean of 141.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 19, 13, 12, 9, 9, 4, and 9, with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 17, 14, 10, 9, 9, 5, and 10, with a mean of 10.6.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3BH9ZDm
    [2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
    [3] https://prop.kc2g.com/
    [4] https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html
    [5] https://bit.ly/3QIrXKd
    [6] https://bit.ly/3UhnuAS
    [7] https://bit.ly/3BLjh1i
    [8] https://youtu.be/OAOmI-3YxUA
    [9] k7ra@arrl.net
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 23 15:55:10 2022
    09/23/2022

    Geomagnetic disturbances were down this week, but so were sunspot
    numbers and solar flux.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 92.7 to 68, and average
    daily solar flux from 141.3 to 134.3.

    On September 22 the sunspot number was 99, well above (by 31 points)
    the average for the previous seven days, a promising indication. We
    hope it may signal a trend.

    But Solar Cycle 25 progresses, a bit better than expected. A year
    ago, average daily sunspot numbers were about ten points lower, at
    58.3, while average solar flux was 87.4, about 47 points lower. Two
    years ago there were no sunspots! We still expect an uptrend lasting
    until Summer 2025.

    Six new sunspot groups appeared this week, the first on September
    15, two more on September 19, another on September 20, and two more
    on September 21.

    Predicted solar flux is 138 on September 23, 130 on September 24-27,
    120 and 125 on September 28-29, 122 on September 30 through October
    7, then 125, 122 and 120 on October 8-10, 118 on October 11-12, 116
    on October 13-15, 138 on October 16, 135 on October 17-18, then 133,
    128, 126, 130 and 125 on October 19-23, 120 on October 24-25, and
    122 on October 26-29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20 on September 23, 15 on September
    24-25, 8 on September 26-28, then 5, 22, 50, 30 and 20 on September
    29 through October 3, then 12, 15, 12 and 10 on October 4-7, then 8,
    8, 5, and 8 on October 8-11, 5 on October 12-14, then 12, 10, 5, 5,
    20, 18 and 12 on October 15-21, and 8 on October 22-26, then 22, 50,
    30, 20 and 12, a repeat from the previous solar rotation.

    The above predictions were by Dethlesfsen and Ciopasiu at Offut Air
    Force Base.

    Are sunspots really black?  A report can be found here:

    https://www.livescience.com/why-are-sunspots-black[1]

    Pleased to report that the 2022 Autumnal Equinox is today, Friday,
    September 23 at 0104 UTC. Both northern and southern hemispheres
    will be bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation, which is good
    for HF propagation.

    Frequent contributor David Moore sent this story about a magnetic
    mystery solved with the aid of the Solar Orbiter:

    https://bit.ly/3DRzhjX[2]

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 22, 2022 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The setting sunspot region AR3098 still managed to produce an
    impulsive M8-class solar flare on 16 September at 0949 UT. A sudden
    ionospheric disturbance (SWF, or Dellinger effect) affected
    frequencies below 25 MHz for an hour after the flare.

    "On September 17, we expected the high-speed solar wind flow from
    the northern coronal hole to produce a G1-class geomagnetic storm,
    but we registered it a day later. Whereupon the old region AR3088
    appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk and was given the new
    number AR3102. Although it appeared to be in decay, it grew again.

    "On September 18, we observed five M-class solar flares in the
    setting region of AR3098. However, none of them produced an
    earthward CME.

    "On September 20, another large group of spots appeared over the
    southeastern edge of the Sun, joining the rising and growing AR3105
    - which doubled in size the next day.

    "On September 21, NOAA predicted a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm
    might occur on September 23. A high-speed solar wind stream is
    expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field.

    "On September 22, we could observe the sunspot group complex
    AR3105-3107. The chance of a geoeffective flare should increase in
    the coming days as they enter the Earth's impact zone.

    "Geomagnetic activity was somewhat lower than expected.

    "Shortwave propagation conditions pleasantly surprised us around
    September 17. Therefore, we expected them to improve further as the
    Autumnal Equinox approached. But it didn't happen.  They remained at
    average levels, whereby the explanation for why this happened lies
    in the effect of the solar wind on the Earth's ionosphere."

    I (K7RA) had more strange pipeline propagation on 10 meters this
    week, in which my FT8 signal was only reported by
    https://pskreporter.info[3] from stations in Florida.

    At 2050 UTC yesterday, AI4FR (2509 miles), N2UJZ (2558 miles),
    KD8HTS (2582 miles), and WC3W (2609 miles) were the only stations
    anywhere receiving my signal. All were less than 100 miles from each
    other.  Later PU5CAC (Brazil, 6847 miles) was added to the mix,
    along the same arc as the North America stations.

    I was not using any directional antenna, just a random length
    end-fed indoor wire fed by a 4:1 UnUn and autotuner. Very curious
    results, and it happens often. So, for me, the band was dead, except
    to a very specific location.

    Here is a space weather report from England's Met Office:

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather[4]

    On September 22, https://spaceweather.com[5] reported three big
    sunspots crossing the solar horizon: AR3105, AR3106 and AR3107.

    Here is always a good reference:

    https://solarmonitor.org/[6]

    NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/[7]

    Solar Dynamics Observatory:

    https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[8]

    The SOHO site:

    https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/[9]

    Hilarious solar warning out of India, an EOTWAWKI existential
    threat:

    https://bit.ly/3S67DDZ[10]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [15]. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 15 through 21, 2022 were 71, 64, 76,
    51, 74, 70, and 70, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 139.7,
    131.1, 131.5, 136.1, 127.9, 137.2, and 136.9, with a mean of 134.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 5, 11, 11, 8, and 5, with a
    mean of 7.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 5, 5, 9, 7, 6, and 4,
    with a mean of 6.9.

     


    [1] https://www.livescience.com/why-are-sunspots-black
    [2] https://bit.ly/3DRzhjX
    [3] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [4] https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather
    [5] https://spaceweather.com
    [6] https://solarmonitor.org/
    [7] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
    [8] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [9] https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/
    [10] https://bit.ly/3S67DDZ
    [11] k7ra@arrl.net
    [12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] http://k9la.us/
    [17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 30 14:11:41 2022
    09/30/2022

    Sunspot activity rose this reporting week, September 22-28, with
    average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 68 to 105.1. But solar
    flux? Not so much. Average daily solar flux rose from 134.3 to
    138.4.

    So, the sunspot average rose 55% and solar flux only 3%. I usually
    expect the numbers to track more closely.

    New sunspots appeared on September 22 and 23, and one more on
    September 27. On Thursday night (September 29) NOAA reported the
    daily sunspot number at 56, little more than half the average for
    the previous seven days, which is 105.1.

    Tuesday September 27 had lots of geomagnetic activity, with the
    planetary A index at 24 and middle latitude at 33. Spaceweather.com[1]
    blamed an unexpected CME. They also report a huge sunspot beyond the
    Sun's eastern horizon with a helioseismic image at,
    https://bit.ly/3ftpTIN[2] .

    The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic
    warning at 2146 UTC on September 28:

    "Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns indicate that G1 geomagnetic
    activity is likely during the interval 30-Sep to 02-Oct.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
    SPEED WIND STREAM."

    Predicted solar flux from the Thursday night forecast appears much
    more optimistic than the Wednesday numbers, which were in the ARRL
    Letter on Thursday.

    Instead of 135 and 130 for the next few days, they are 148 on
    September 30, 146 on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-7, then 135, 130,
    128 and 132 on October 8-11, then 136 on October 12-13, then 138,
    140, 138 and 135 on October 14-17, then 132, 130, 128 and 125 on
    October 18-21, then 130, 140, 142 and 145 on October 22-25, and 140,
    135, 130, 125, 128 and 130 on October 26-31, then 132 on November
    1-3, and 135, 130 and 128 on November 4-6.

    Planetary A index is predicted at 20, 60 and 40 on September 30
    through October 2, then 20, 18, 16 on October 3-5, 12 on October
    6-7, then 8 on October 8-14, 10 on October 15-16, 8 on October
    17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 8 on October 22-23, 10 on October 24-25,
    8 on October 26-27, then in a recurrent disturbance as sunspots
    rotate into the same position as weeks earlier, 25, 50, 30, 20, 12
    and 10 on October 28 through November 2, and back to 8 on November
    3-10.

    Of course, a planetary A index of 50 or 60 is huge, indicating an
    expected major geomagnetic disturbance.

    From OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 29, 2022.

    "Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field
    activity, published in the years 1978 - 2021.

    "The following text is very brief as I am traveling around Europe
    without a computer. I will add more next time.

    "An unexpected and unpredicted surprise was the rise of geomagnetic
    activity during the night of September 24-25.

    "Further developments did not take place according to assumptions.
    Which, by the way, is a precursor to the next increase in solar
    activity.

    "Nevertheless, I present a forecast of further disturbances:
    September 30 and especially October 1!

    "http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/[3] - F.K. Janda, OK1HH"

    Wow, Frantislav manages to submit his report without a computer!
    I've never been to Europe (unfortunately), but I imagine him ducking
    into some sort of Internet kiosk to file his report.

    Here is Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, report
    from last weekend:

    https://youtu.be/A8flrmnAqQQ[4]

    An article on solar research:

    https://bit.ly/3dPm40p[5]

    Newsweek is at it again:

    https://bit.ly/3CmpW2e[6]

    I continue to see unusual propagation using FT8, such as my signal
    only being received in a narrow band 100-200 miles wide on the East
    Coast of North America.

    You do not need to be an FT8 user to use it to check out the bands.
    Just go to the pskreporter map page at
    https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[7] and select the band you are
    interested in (they even have 11 meters!).

    Next, select the default "Signals" and "Sent/Received by" and change
    "the callsign" to "grid square," entering your own four-character
    grid (or one near you with a larger ham population) and in the
    "Using" field select FT8.

    Hit "Go!" and you will see where stations in your area are being
    received, including signal levels.

    You can enter your own call instead of the grid, and select "Country
    of Callsign," and you will see activity all over your nation. I find
    it interesting early in the day to use this on 10 meters, and what I
    usually see is activity all over the East Coast, and especially in
    the southeast U.S. but not here on the west coast.

    But I know that the 10 meter openings will advance across the
    country with the movement of Earth relative to our Sun.

    Explore the "Display options" link just to the right of the time
    listed in the "over the last" field, and you can customize this
    tool. I like to select "Show time text in black always," "Show
    connecting lines always," and "Show SNR."

    The "Show logbook" link is very useful, once you have done a search.
    Often, I will use this, searching for the callsign of an FT8 station
    who has mysteriously disappeared after connecting to me. I can sort
    the entries by Time to find out if anyone has received that station
    since I last saw that station's signal.

    The default "over the last" setting is 15 minutes, but when
    searching for a callsign you can vary the time over the past 24
    hours.

    Have fun!

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 22 through 28, 2022 were 99, 111, 128,
    96, 120, 110, and 72, with a mean of 105.1. 10.7 cm flux was 136.7,
    146.3, 146.5, 134.7, 135.1, 134.5, and 134.8, with a mean of 138.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 13, 7, 6, 24, and 5, with
    a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 12, 10, 5, 5, 33, and
    3, with a mean of 10.4.

     


    [1] https://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/3ftpTIN
    [3] http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
    [4] https://youtu.be/A8flrmnAqQQ
    [5] https://bit.ly/3dPm40p
    [6] https://bit.ly/3CmpW2e
    [7] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] https://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 7 23:31:02 2022
    10/07/2022

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week (September 29 through October 5), as expected with the solar cycle progressing toward a probable peak in summer 2025.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 105.1 to 111.4, and average daily 10.7 cm solar flux from 138.4 to 149.2.

    Compare this to a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was just 59.4 and solar flux was 89.8.

    This last week there were two new sunspot groups on September 30, one more on October 1, three on October 3, and one more on Thursday, October 6.

    I have been noticing improved 10 meter propagation with openings lasting all day, now that the autumnal equinox passed two weeks ago and with higher sunspot numbers.

    Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 7, 154 on October 8 and 9, then 152 and 150 on October 10 and 11, 148 on October 12 to 14, 130 on October 15, 135 on October 16 and 17, 140 on October 18, 145 on October 19 to 21, 150 on October 22 and 23, then 145, 140 and 135 on October 24 to 26, 145 on October 27 and 28, 150 on October 29, 155 on October 30 and 31, 145 on November 1, 135 on November 2 to 4, 130 on November 5 and 6, 135 on November 7, 140 on November 8 and 9, 130 on November 10 and 11 and 135 on November 12 and 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10, 12 and 8 on October 7 to 10, 5 on October 11 to 13, 8 on October 14, 10 on October 15 and 16, then 8 on October 17 to 19, 12 on October 20 and 21, 8 on October 22 to 29, then 20, 12 and 10 on October 30 through November 1, then 8 on November 2 to 10 and 10 on November 11 and 12.

    On October 2, Spaceweather.com announced "A Big Dangerous Sunspot", AR3112, one of the biggest in years had just rotated over the sun's eastern horizon.  They predict this could produce two weeks of high solar activity.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports, "A week ago it seemed that following conditions would be calmer.  This assumption was shattered after AR3112 sunspot group, with its complex magnetic structure, began to appear on the northeastern edge of the solar disk.

    Prior to that, we expected the earth to be hit by a fast solar wind from a CME that left the sun on September 28, but only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity followed on September 28 and October 2.

    However, we did get an X1 flare on October 2 at 2025 UTC, which ironically did not originate from the large dangerous AR3112 group, but from the smaller and apparently less threatening AR3110 active region.  It amplified the SWF (shortwave fade out) in the Pacific and parts of North America.  Apparently, it blasted a CME into space.

    This development was followed by the introduction of AR3112 with over a dozen dark nuclei scattered over 130,000 km of the solar disk.

    It remained the case that most of the incoming CMEs were hurled into space by the AR3110 group of spots, in which we observed a series of strong flares (M5.9, M8.7, X1) over the weekend.

    As a result, several CMEs headed towards Earth.

    However, the geomagnetic field was only steady to active in the following days.

    Not only does the chance for energetic flares in the AR3112 region persist, but on October 4, a 200,000 km long magnetic filament erupted in the southern hemisphere of the Sun.  The plasma clouds are not heading directly towards Earth, but some could hit on 8 October."

    Big filament.

    https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC[1]

    https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ[2]

    The latest from WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov.

    https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME[3]

    https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek[4]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
     http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] .  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 29 through October 5, 2022 were 56, 74, 100, 102, 144, 153, and 151, with a mean of 111.4.  10.7 cm flux was 137.2, 137.1, 147.9, 153.9, 155.1, 152.4, and 161, with a mean of 149.2.  Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 13, 3, 12, 24, 16, and 14, with a mean of 12.7.  Middle latitude A index was 7, 12, 2, 9, 16, 13, and 11, with a mean of 10.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC
    [2] https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ
    [3] https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME
    [4] https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 14 16:40:14 2022
    10/14/2022

    Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week,
    with sunspot numbers going from 111.4 to 114.9, and flux values from
    149.2 to 155.3.

    A feel-good exercise is to compare these numbers with a year ago,
    when the sunspot reading in 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin
    ARLP041 was only 30.7 and flux was 86.9. Solar Cycle 25 progression
    is better than predicted.

    October 9 saw a planetary A index reading of 25. On that day Spaceweather.com[1] warned that sunspot AR3112 had a delta-class
    magnetic field with energy for strong solar flares.

    The next day they posted movies of two flares, seen here, https://bit.ly/3T82fQS[2] and here, https://bit.ly/3evItjp[3] .

    Predicted solar flux from USAF and NOAA shows values peaking during
    the first week in November at 160.

    The forecast shows flux values of 130, 120, 115 and 117 on October
    14-17, 120 on October 18-20, 130 and 138 on October 21-22, 140 on
    October 23-25, then 145, 145 and 150 on October 26-28, then 155, 155
    and 152 on October 29-31, 160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135
    on November 9-11, 130 on November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on
    November 15-17, and 140 on November 18-21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 14, 8 on October 15-16,
    5 on October 17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 5 on October 22-26, then
    12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on October 31 through
    November 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on November 2-4, 20 on November 5-6,
    then 8 and 12 on November 7-8, then 5, 5, 12 and 10 on November
    9-12, then 5 on November 13-15, 12 on November 16-17, and 5 on
    November 18-22.

    With increased solar activity and the progression into the Fall
    season, I am seeing improved conditions on 10 meters, including more
    beacon reports for my K7RA/B CW beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "A greater number of active regions on the Sun, and therefore higher
    total solar activity may be interesting for observers who are on the
    lookout for remarkable phenomena. Moreover, it will certainly please
    those radio amateurs who like to communicate on the shortest
    shortwave bands, but that's where the easy part of the prediction
    ends.

    "Along with more flares, we also saw more CMEs. More accurately: too
    many CMEs to make a forecast. The Sun was throwing several plasma
    clouds into space nearly every day. Many of the CMEs were weak, some overlapping and heading in different directions. The disturbances
    could occur at any time. Their irregular occurrence was observed
    between October 3 and 10. Only after that did the Earth's
    magnetosphere calm down.

    "The CME of 4 October apparently did not hit the Earth. It was not
    until the eruption in AR3112 on October 7 that it did. Therefore, we
    observed a G1-class geomagnetic storm on October 9. In addition, we
    observed eruptive activity that may have affected the Earth from the
    smaller AR3116.

    "All of this took place in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk,
    and as the active regions approached the western limb of the solar
    disk, the overall activity slowly decreased.

    "Some CMEs took us by surprise and caused unexpected disturbances,
    while other CMEs that should have hit Earth did not. We were pleased
    to note a quiet development since October 11 with solar activity
    still sufficiently high, contributed to improved shortwave
    propagation.

    "We now expect a gradual decrease in solar activity, but this will
    be replaced by an increase later in October."

    John, W2QL wrote:

    "I decoded HC2FG on 6m FT8, 50.315.143 on 8 October 2022 at 1526
    UTC, -18 dB.

    "My equipment was a MFJ 6m Moxon in 3rd floor bedroom, SDRPlay
    RSPDuo, QTH Fairfax, VA, FM18iu."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "Some odd F2 conditions October 8. First, 6 meters was open from the
    southeast U.S. to Ecuador in the morning around 1500 UTC. I was on
    6M portable with a 5 el Yagi, but nil in Kansas. To me it appeared
    to be F2.

    "10 meters was wide open to Europe. 9H1TT was 59+++ on SSB, as were
    3 stations in Lebanon on 28.647 MHz. No luck with the OD5 stations,
    but I worked EA7GAK, 9H1TT on SSB, and HA7TM on FT8 with 50 watts
    and a whip antenna 'fixed mobile' from my portable site in northeast
    Kansas.

    "Solar Cycle 25 appears to be ramping up!

    "Also worked IS0/OM2TW on SSB with 50 watts and vertical whip on
    car."

    Another of the many articles about the scary Carrington Event,
    although this is the first time I have seen the claim that the flare
    was so powerful, that telegraph messages could be sent through the
    aurora! 1859 was long before the invention of radio, and longer
    still before radio waves were observed propagating through the
    aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3CQEveO[4]

    Does anyone know how to get rid of that annoying video pop-up? I
    cannot kill it.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 6 through 12, 2022 were 139, 146, 137,
    114, 134, 72, and 62, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 155.7,
    159.7, 157.2, 160.5, 163.2, 150.3, and 140.6, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 15, 12, 25, 10, 7, and 6,
    with a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 12, 10, 18, 8,
    7, and 4, with a mean of 10.4.


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/3T82fQS
    [3] https://bit.ly/3evItjp
    [4] https://bit.ly/3CQEveO
    [5] k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 21 21:54:49 2022
    10/21/2022

    Sunspot activity took quite a plunge over this reporting week
    (October 13-19). Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 114.9
    to 57.3, while equivalent solar flux values went from 155.3 to
    119.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average planetary A
    index going from 13.3 to 10.6, and middle latitude A index from 10.4
    to 8.1.

    A new sunspot group emerged on October 13, two more on October 15,
    another on October 16, one more on October 17, another on October 19
    and one more on October 20.

    I should note that the middle latitude A index for October 18-19 are
    my own estimates. The Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetometer was
    offline for a 24 hour period spanning both days.

    The Wednesday forecast of solar flux shows a peak at 160 during the
    first week in November.

    Predicted daily flux values are 115 on October 21-22, 120 on October
    23-27, 130 on October 28, 155 on October 29-30, 152 on October 31,
    160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135 on November 9-11, 130 on
    November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on November 15-17, and 140
    on November 18-21, 145 on November 22-23, 150 on November 24, 155 on
    November 25-26, then 160 from the end of November through the first
    week in December.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 21-23, 12 on October 24,
    15 on October 25-26, then 12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on
    October 31 through November 1, then 18, 15, 12, 20, and 8 on
    November 2-6, 5 on November 7-9, 18 on November 10-11, then 15 and 8
    on November 12-13, 5 on November 14-15, 12 on November 16-17, 8 on
    November 18, and 5 on November 19-21, then 15, 12, 15, 12 and 20 on
    November 22-26, 15 on November 27-28, and 18 on November 29.

    Despite lower solar activity, worldwide 10 meter propagation seems
    strong this week, probably boosted by seasonal variations as we head
    deeper into the Fall season.

    Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28, Kansas) reports from last week:

    "A strong several hour F2 opening took place on 6 Meters October 14,
    2022. Stations in northern South America and the Caribbean were
    strong to the southeast states, Midwest, and eastern Seaboard.

    "From eastern Kansas, I logged HC2DR and PJ4MM on 6 Meters via FT8
    around 1950 UTC. I was running about 50 watts and a quarter wave
    whip on my car 'fixed mobile.'"

    "Signals were strong.

    "The Solar Flux was 141, K index 4."

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity gradually decreased as active regions fell behind
    the northwestern limb of the solar disk.

    "Earth's magnetic field was active to disturbed around October 15,
    when our planet was moving in a rapid stream of solar wind. A minor
    G1-class geomagnetic storm was registered on October 15.

    "In the following days, solar activity remained low, and the simple
    sunspot configuration indicated a low probability of flares.

    "It is only in a few days, after the coronal hole in the southeast
    of the solar disk crosses the central meridian, that the solar wind
    speed and the probability of geomagnetic disturbances will increase
    again.

    "We can expect a more pronounced increase in solar activity and more
    frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands again, especially
    from the last days of October onward."

    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4[1]

    Angel Santana, WP3GW on October 17 wrote:

    "For a month now I've heard (and seen) much activity on 10 meters
    more than on any other band on weekends with countries that I've not
    heard for a while. On past weeks, have worked 7X, C3, and V51MA
    which is very active.

    "You can even hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz.

    "This past Sunday took time to work some stations from I, EA, T7,
    and ON. Then after 1730 UTC began calling on 28.550 MHz and work 22
    stations including PA, I, F, CX, W, CE, PY, EA8, and LU. All good
    signals. Plus, heard DL for the Work All Germany contest.

    "Some EA stations are heard well into the 2100 UTC which is like
    11pm their local time.

    "So, give it a try, this contest season looks very interesting, you
    may call this the 'Rise of Ten.'"

    Angel added that with his Yaesu FTDX10 he can see the activity
    across 10 meters.

    Bob, KB1DK writes:

    "I have been using the MUF map from the KC2G website since it was
    mentioned by N4KZ in your September 16th bulletin. It is very
    accurate and is now my go-to source to know what is actually
    happening propagation wise before I turn on the rig.

    "The auto refresh MUF map reflects the actual and changing band
    conditions. The map has been consistently 'spot on' during my first
    month of use. I highly recommend the website.

    "Over the past three weeks, both 10 and 12 meter SSB have been great
    from my Connecticut QTH. I worked many newcomers to 12 meters who
    were impressed with both the propagation and the minimal QRM.

    "The first two weeks in October was very busy on 10 meters. Weekends
    were like a contest, with solid activity between 28.300 and 28.600
    Signals were quite strong and many stations were heard here for
    several hours straight. While I was able to make SSB contacts to
    Saudi Arabia, Zambia, and Australia, I was not able to make contact
    with Japan. The signals from Japan were readable and they were
    working stations from the west coast."

    The site is, https://prop.kc2g.com[2] .

    A new photo of a solar flare:

    https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb[3]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19, 2022 were 57, 51, 50, 59,
    84, 50, and 50, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 130, 120.5,
    115.1, 119.2, 125.6, 113.9, and 113.2, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 18, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 5, with
    a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 16, 15, 11, 4, 4, and
    3, with a mean of 10.4.
     


    [1] https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4
    [2] https://prop.kc2g.com
    [3] https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb
    [4] k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 28 17:11:27 2022
    10/28/2022

    Sunspot activity seems listless. Average daily sunspot numbers went
    from 57.3 to 58.4 (see note at the end of the bulletin concerning
    last week's averages) while solar flux went from 119.6 to 113.2.

    On Thursday, the day after the reporting week ended, the sunspot
    number was 72, over 13 points above the previous 7 day average.
    Perhaps this is a promising sign.

    The middle latitude geomagnetic numbers this week are wrong. See
    what I mean:

    https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB[1]

    I emailed a contact at NOAA about this, and here is the reply:

    "Mid lat numbers are absolutely NOT correct.

    "Fredericksburg magnetometer is undergoing maintenance this week and
    has been flaky. I've alerted the individual acting in my absence as
    well as our developers to see if we can get that cleaned up."

    So, the middle latitude numbers presented here at the end of the
    bulletin are my own very rough estimates, trying to correlate with
    the high latitude and planetary numbers. My NOAA contact emailed me
    the data from the Boulder magnetometer, which can be used in lieu of
    the Fredericksburg data, and he noted that my estimates were not far
    off.

    Here is what he sent me:

    A index (Boulder)              7, 4, 22, 13, 6, 5, 4 with a mean of 8.7
    A index (K7RA estimate)  5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, 4 with a mean of 9.1

    Average daily planetary A index went from 18.6 to 10.4, and middle
    latitude numbers from 8.1 to 9.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 125 on October 28 to November 3, 112 on
    November 4-5, 118 on November 6-9, 115 on November 10-12, 112 on
    November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18, 104 on
    November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25, 100 on
    November 26, then 105 on November 27-28, 110 on November 29, 112 on
    November 30 through December 2, and 118 on December 3-6.

    The rise in solar flux in the first week in November to 160
    presented in the previous two bulletins is gone from the current
    prediction. But this Thursday solar flux forecast is more optimistic
    for the near term than the Wednesday forecast in yesterday's ARRL
    Letter.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 18, 22, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on
    October 28 through November 3, 5 on November 4-9, then 18, 18 and 15
    on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-17, then 25, 18, 17 and 12 on
    November 18-21, 5 on November 22-23, then 8, 15 and 20 on November
    24-26, then 15, 15 and 12 on November 27-29, and 5 on November 30
    through December 6.

    From F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Not much happened on the Sun over the past few days from the point
    of view of a terrestrial observer. Overall activity was low. Of
    note, the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic
    field on October 22, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm and
    bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.

    "Earth's magnetic field calmed down and active sunspot regions began
    to sink beyond the southwestern edge of the solar disk, while others
    emerged in the northeast.

    "Although helioseismic maps revealed interesting activity on the
    Sun's far side, this will likely end before it emerges on the
    eastern edge of the solar disk."

    Scott, N7KQ in Fort Meyers, Florida wrote:

    "I wish I had sent this earlier. I worked Japan twice lately on 10
    meters from Southwest Florida. Once on October 12th (JM7OLW) and on
    October 18th (JA1KIH) using an indoor dipole above the garage at 14
    feet. Both were weak but 100% copy. They both reported the same for
    my signal. These contacts were CW, and I run 500 watts."

    10 meters has been much better lately, and for Scott, working
    stations in Japan is more difficult than for me in Seattle, where we
    have always had a pipeline to Japan. His path length is about 7,000
    miles, while mine is only about 5000 miles, and I recall during past
    sunspot cycle peaks calling CQ running barefoot into a low dipole
    produced huge pileups of JA signals.

    My own 10 meter CW beacon (K7RA/B, 28.2833 MHz) has been getting
    more reports lately. A couple of listeners even mailed QSL cards.

    Thanks to Darrel, AA7FV for a tip that led me to a news item about a
    gamma ray burst.

    Be sure to visit Spaceweather.com[2] and using the archives feature in
    the upper right corner, go to October 18 to read about the October 9
    gamma ray burst, and the amateur astronomer who detected it using an
    unusual VLF antenna.

    This burst of energy happened 2.4 billion years ago and took that
    long to reach us.

    Here is what stage Earth was in at that time:

    https://bit.ly/3znjztv[3]

    More info on the event:

    https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi[4]

    Here is a link to Darrel's own data, labeled Agua Caliente:

    https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU[5]

    Did you know there is crowd sourced geomagnetic data, using smart
    phones? You can participate:

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data[6]

    Here is a Forbes article on doomsday flares:

    https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy[7]

    Some tabloid news on flares:

    https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL[8]

    Something even worse than a Carrington Event?

    https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR[9]

    In last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 the averages
    were wrong.

    The correct averages for the numbers at the end of the bulletin in
    ARLP042 were 57.3, 119.6, 10.6 and 8.1 for sunspot number, solar
    flux, planetary A index and middle latitude A index respectively.
    The wrong numbers were actually from the previous week.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10] .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 20 through 26, 2022 were 33, 60, 55, 65,
    46, 72, and 78, with a mean of 58.4. 10.7 cm flux was 115.8, 109.4,
    105, 108.4, 114.8, 116.3, and 122.4, with a mean of 113.2. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 7, 5, 27, 16, 8, 5, and 5, with a mean of
    10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, and 4, with a
    mean of 9.1.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB
    [2] http://Spaceweather.com
    [3] https://bit.ly/3znjztv
    [4] https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi
    [5] https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU
    [6] https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data
    [7] https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy
    [8] https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL
    [9] https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR
    [10] k7ra@arrl.net
    [11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [15] http://k9la.us/
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 4 15:25:45 2022
    11/04/2022

    Solar activity perked up this week. Average daily sunspot number
    rose from 58.4 to 70.3, and solar flux averages increased from 113.3
    to 129.9.

    There are still problems with the Fredericksburg magnetometer, so I
    used numbers from the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer for the middle
    latitude A index.

    At 2318 UTC on November 3, 2022 the Australian Space Weather
    Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high
    speed wind stream from November 4-5."

    Planetary A index averages went from 19.4 to 13.7, and middle
    latitude numbers changed from 9.1 to 14.3.

    The solar flux prediction shows the highest values over the next
    week, starting with 130 on November 4, then 135 on November 5-6,
    then 130, 135, 130, and 125 on November 7-10, 115 on November 11-12,
    112 on November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18,
    104 on November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25,
    then 100, 105, 105 and 110 on November 26-29, then 112 on November
    30 through December 2, then 118 on December 3-6, 115 on December
    7-9, and 112 on December 10-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22. 30, 15, and 8 on November 4-7, 5
    on November 8-10, then 18 and 15 on November 11-12, 5 on November
    13-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on November 18-20, 5 on November 21-22,
    then 8, 15 and 25 on November 23-25, 15 on November 26-27, then 18,
    12, 10, 12, 20 and 15 on November 28 through December 3, then 5 on
    December 4-6, 18 on December 7-8, 15 on December 9, and 5 on
    December 10-14, and 25 on December 15.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "The evolution of solar activity, the Earth's magnetic field and the
    state of the ionosphere in recent days has been varied, but not easy
    to describe in a concise way (which is my aim).

    "The reason for this is the variability of the evolution and the
    absence of energetically significant phenomena.

    "A week ago, there were five quiet sunspot groups on the Sun. None
    of them posed a threat of strong flares. All had stable magnetic
    fields that did not look like they would result in an eruption.

    "Then, on the far side of the Sun, a sunspot appeared so large that
    it changed the way the Sun vibrated.

    "Helioseismic maps revealed its acoustic echo several days beyond
    the Sun's northeastern edge. What mattered to us was that it was
    about to appear at the northeastern limb of the Sun's disk.

    "On October 26, we were delighted to see the Solar Dynamics
    Observatory (SOD) satellite, which is in geostationary orbit,
    studying the Sun's influence on planet Earth and the surrounding
    universe.

    "Most important for the forecast is the SDO/AIA image of coronal
    holes, which may alert us to the possibility of an ionospheric
    disturbance. We were cheered up by the fact that the Sun looks like
    a jolly smiley face or a Halloween pumpkin, seen on
    https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ[1], just days before Halloween!

    "A cheerful image, created by coronal holes in the Sun's atmosphere,
    but mainly spewing a triple stream of solar wind toward Earth.

    "Solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft indicated that a
    small, unexpected CME may have impacted Earth's magnetic field on
    October 28 around 1400 UTC. A G1-class geomagnetic storm followed
    after midnight UTC on October 29 after Earth entered the solar wind
    stream flowing from the merry hole in the solar atmosphere.

    "(The DSCOVR spacecraft is the Deep Space Climate Observatory. See https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV[2] .)

    "Further, there were only four sunspots on the Sun, all of which had
    stable magnetic fields that were unlikely to explode.

    "Another flare took place on November 1 on the far side of the Sun.
    The eruption hurled a CME into space. The blast site will flip to
    the Earth side of the Sun in about a week.

    "Watch for a larger coronal hole that has since moved to the Sun's
    western hemisphere. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms may result on
    November 5, when a solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's
    magnetic field. Which will definitely affect shortwave propagation
    conditions. Ideally, and with appropriate timing (daytime, ideally
    afternoon), a significant improvement in the positive phase of the
    disturbance could follow."

    Oleh, KD7WPJ of San Diego, California reported: "On November 1st I
    worked 3 Japanese stations on 10 m CW at 2238-2248 UTC from
    Dictionary Hill (SOTA W6/SC-366) in San Diego, CA. I used 40 watts
    and a homemade vertical with 4 radials."

    Solar blasts in the news:

    https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v[3]

    A Jack-o-Lantern Sun:

    https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/[4]

    News about radio blackouts!

    https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W[5]

    A smiley Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd[6]

    New videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I[7]

    Part 3 of her mini-course:

    https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk[8]

    This weekend is the ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest, in which you work
    domestic stations, and unlike ARRL Field Day, you do get multipliers
    for sections worked. See https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes[9] for
    details.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 27 through November 2, 2022 were 72, 87,
    97, 68, 56, 63, and 49, with a mean of 70.3. 10.7 cm flux was 129.7,
    129.3, 133.9, 130.5, 127.9, 128.1, and 129.7, with a mean of 129.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 16, 26, 12, 11, 8, and 14,
    with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 24, 14, 12,
    6, and 11, with a mean of 12.6.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ
    [2] https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV
    [3] https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v
    [4] https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/
    [5] https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W
    [6] https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd
    [7] https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I
    [8] https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk
    [9] https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes
    [10] k7ra@arrl.net
    [11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [15] http://k9la.us/
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Nov 14 20:54:43 2022
    11/14/2022

    ARRL headquarters was closed on Friday, November 11, so this
    bulletin is delayed until Monday, but edited and updated Sunday
    night.

    Two new sunspots appeared November 1, one more November 3, two more November 4, one more and then another on November 6 and 7, another on November 9 and again on November 10, and one more on November 13. But sunspot numbers and solar flux seem modest lately, and so are the solar flux forecasts.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week, from 70.3 to 78.9, yet
    somehow the solar flux averages stayed the same, 129.9 and 129.9.
    Our reporting week is Thursday through Wednesday, and in the four
    days since, the average rose to 137.9.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 13.7 to 13.4, but the
    middle latitude numbers changed from 14.3 to 9.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on November 14-15, 120 and 110 on
    November 16-17, 105 on November 18-19,  then 110, 114, 112 and 114
    on November 20-23, 116 on November 24-26, 118 on November 27-28,
    then 120, 122, 125, 124 and 122 on November 29 through December 3,
    130 on December 4-5, then 125 and 120 on December 6-7, 115 on
    December 8-9, then 120, 118, 116, 115 and 114 on December 10-14, 116
    on December 15-16, 114 on December 17-18, then 112 and 114 on
    December 19-20, and 116 on December 21-23.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 14, 10 on November
    15-16, 5 on November 17-19, 15 on November 20,  5 on November 21-22,
    then 8, 16, 26, 15 and 12 on November 23-27, then 8, 15, 26, 16 and
    12 on November 28 through December 2, then 8 on December 3-4, 12 on
    December 5-8, 8 on December 9, then 5 on December 10-14, then 25, 15
    and 8 on December 15-17, 5 on December 18-19, then 8, 26 and 15 on
    December 20-22.

    Angel Santana, WP3GW, wrote:

    "10 meters is getting so better, that today on November 9 at 1319 UTC had a contact with 3B9FR on 28.522 MHz up 5. He even answered me in Spanish."

    That is Rodrigues Island, in the Indian Ocean, more than 9000 miles
    from Puerto Rico.

    More on Rodrigues Island:

    https://bbc.in/3El5MGS[1]

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/tkpwp_oUMnQ[2]

    Articles about solar flares and radio blackouts:

    https://bit.ly/3EkBFzu[3]

    https://bit.ly/3hkvke8[4]

    Paul, K2PMD, asked:

    "I am a relatively new ham, so please forgive me if this is a dumb
    question. Generally speaking, I understand that a high K index makes
    radio communication more difficult. Why is the K index not included
    in the weekly propagation report?"

    My response:

    "The reason is, there are too many of them.  Instead, geomagnetic
    indicators are summarized using the A index.

    "If we listed all the K indices for both middle-latitude and
    planetary, there would be 112 numbers to report.

    "K index is quasi-logarithmic, while A index is linear.

    "The A index for any day is calculated from the 8 daily K indices.

    "https://bit.ly/3zLPLXW[5]

    "I've been using this resource more and more lately, when I want to
    check for possible geomagnetic disturbances in real time:

    "https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[6]

    "Notice that the numbers are fractional, and it is easy to spot
    trends in real time. K index is always expressed in whole numbers,
    but because these are planetary numbers from many magnetometers, you
    get a finer resolution."

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

    Sunspot numbers for November 3 through 9, 2022 were 65, 81, 82, 78,
    80, 85, and 81, with a mean of 78.8. 10.7 cm flux was 125.3, 117.7,
    131.1, 130.8, 134.6, 132.3, and 137.6, with a mean of 129.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 16, 10, 4, 19, 12, and 7,
    with a mean of 13.4. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 8, 3, 12,
    8, and 8, with a mean of 9.6.

     


    [1] https://bbc.in/3El5MGS
    [2] https://youtu.be/tkpwp_oUMnQ
    [3] https://bit.ly/3EkBFzu
    [4] https://bit.ly/3hkvke8
    [5] https://bit.ly/3zLPLXW
    [6] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 18 18:02:42 2022
    11/18/2022

    At 0334 UTC on November 18, the Australian Space Weather Forecast
    Centre issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "A moderately large coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective
    location by 19-Nov. Combined with possible weak glancing interaction
    of recent CMEs, geomagnetic activity is expected in the coming days.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2022."

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux did not seem to correlate this week.
    Flux rose, while spots fell.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 79.8 to 72.3, but average
    solar flux rose from 129.9 to 137.2.

    This suggests the number and area of sunspots was less, but the 10.7
    cm radiation from those spots increased.

    A new sunspot emerged on November 10, another on November 13, and
    two more on November 16, the last day of our reporting week, which
    runs Thursday through the following Wednesday. Another sunspot group
    emerged the next day on November 17.

    How is this sunspot cycle progressing? One year ago, in our bulletin
    average daily sunspot number was only 36.4, solar flux was 89.1, so
    if the latest activity seems a bit lackluster, we can see the cycle
    making steady progress. Solar Cycle 25 is expected to peak around
    July 2025, about 32 months from now.

    So why do we care about these numbers? We get better HF propagation
    at higher frequencies when x-rays from the Sun are more intense, and
    they correlate with sunspot numbers and the 10.7 cm radiation. This
    radiation charges the ionosphere, increasing density.

    Back in 1957-59 at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 the radiation was so
    intense that (I've been told) 10 meters was open worldwide, around
    the clock. Solar Cycle 19 had by far the highest sunspot count in
    recorded history, with nothing like it before or since.

    Here is the prediction for solar flux, from Thursday which has lower
    short term numbers than the Wednesday forecast presented in the ARRL
    Letter.

    Expect 118 on November 18-21, 120, 122 and 122 November 22-24, 115
    on November 25-26, then 120 and 125 on November 27-28, 130 on
    November 29-30, 135 on December 1-12, 120 and 110 on December 13-14, then 105 on December 15-18, 110 on December 19, and 115 on December 20-23, then back to 135 before the New Year.

    Predicted planetary A index, which gives us a clue to possible
    geomagnetic unrest, is 10, 18, 28, 12 and 8 on November 18-22, 5 on
    November 23-24, then 15, 18, 12 and 8 on November 25-28, 5 on
    November 29-30, then 12, 18 and 8 on December 1-3, 5 on December
    4-7, 8 on December 8-9, 5 on December 10-11, 10 on December 12-13, 5
    on December 14-16, 15 on December 17, then 18 on December 18-19, and 5, 8, 15, 18, 12 and 8 on December 20-25.

    Coming up is the annual ARRL 10 Meter Contest, over the weekend of
    December 10-11. Expect better propagation than we saw in 2020 and
    2021. Although predicted solar flux is not particularly high, the
    prediction above shows the highest solar flux (135) over that
    weekend, and planetary A index at a low value of 5, indicating
    predicted geomagnetic stability. But of course, things may change.

    The comment above about Solar Cycle 19 in the ARRL Letter brought
    this response, from a ham who was there, and just in time for
    Friday's bulletin.

    Roger, K6LMN in Los Angeles, California wrote:

    "10 meters SSB and the beacons most days are very good. South
    America comes as if over a coax cable terminating here in Los
    Angeles.  But I need 6 more countries worked/confirmed on 10M SSB to
    make 150.

    "Also please wake up the 'magic band' 6m because I need a few more
    grids on 6M SSB to make 425 confirmed.

    "Solar Cycle 24 was OK on 6M and I'm hoping 6M goes wide open this
    Solar Cycle 25, after all I am 84 years old and probably this is my
    last solar cycle.

    "I need more Euro stations and am sorely lacking on the Middle East
    and parts of Africa. I cannot compete with you East Coasters.
    Namibia was coming in the other day, but the Midwest and east
    coasters fought it out. No luck so I gave up. Ah, but I get even
    with you easterners since the Pacific area is a piece of cake here
    in Los Angeles.

    "About Solar Cycle 19. I was a teenager when licensed in 1955 as a
    Novice. I heard stations from all over the world on HF and 6M. I
    hurried up and got my Tech license and then my General a few years
    later.

    "HF and 6M stations were coming in 24/7 from all over the world. I
    only had 90 watts and a dipole, all on AM, but WOW the stuff I
    worked and heard was just incredible.  Mostly peaking around
    1956-1957!"

    OK1HH writes:

    "Over the past two weeks, several active regions crossed the solar
    disk, the most significant was the trio of AR3140, AR3141 and
    AR3145, which crossed the central meridian on November 10-11.

    "Most attention was drawn to the magnetically complex and almost
    daily flare-producing AR3141, which allowed a smaller version of
    itself to grow in its northwestern part. The result (see https://bit.ly/3Askfyi[1] ) reminded fans of 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the
    Galaxy President Zaphod Beeblebrox.'

    "The solar flux has not dropped below 130 sfu since November 5,
    while the Earth's magnetic field has been quiet since November 9.
    The result has been a relatively long period of above-average
    shortwave propagation conditions.

    "Beginning November 17, we expected an increase in geomagnetic
    activity as a consequence of, among other things, the CME of
    November 14. However, there will likely be a delay of a day or two
    from the original forecast. Therefore, if the disturbance begins on
    November 18 or 19, preferably during the daylight hours, there may
    be further improvement in conditions, and deterioration in the next
    phase of the disturbance."

    ARRL SSB Sweepstakes is this weekend. Even if you are not a serious
    contest operator, it is easy and fun to give out fresh contacts to
    stations on the air, especially toward the end of the event when
    participants are eager for new, fresh stations.

    A new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/xLkS3-xp5jM[2]

    Here is a video that makes it appear there is a Sun serpent:

    https://bit.ly/3hVOLKR[3]

    Thanks to reader David Moore for the following online stories on
    solar activity:

    https://bit.ly/3V6jinh[4]

    https://bit.ly/3V0isIY[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

    Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16, 2022 were 79, 57, 65,
    74, 77, 69, and 85, with a mean of 72.3. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7,
    137.6, 138.2, 137, 141.5, 134.2, and 132.9, with a mean of 137.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 5, 7, 4, 2, and 2, with a
    mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 3, 6, 3, 2, and 2,
    with a mean of 3.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3Askfyi
    [2] https://youtu.be/xLkS3-xp5jM
    [3] https://bit.ly/3hVOLKR
    [4] https://bit.ly/3V6jinh
    [5] https://bit.ly/3V0isIY
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Dec 3 00:21:11 2022
    12/02/2022

    No new sunspots appeared over the past reporting week, November 24 to 30.  But sunspots were visible every day.  Then on December 1 three new sunspot groups emerged.  The sunspot number rose from 12 to 49 and the total sunspot area went from 10 to 330.

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined during this reporting week (November 24 to 30), with average daily Sunspot number dropping from 66 to 46, and average daily solar flux from 116.5 to 108.3.

    Solar wind streams from coronal holes kept geomagnetic indicators active, with average daily planetary A index jumping from 5.1 to 18.6,and middle latitude A index from 3.4 to 14.

    On Wednesday, November 30 the magnetometer at Fairbanks, Alaska showed the college A index at 54, the highest value over the past month.  No doubt this produced aurora.  The next day the disturbance continued, with collage A index at 51.  These are very large numbers.

    The current prediction from Thursday night has solar flux reaching a peak of 130 this weekend, rather than 135 recently predicted.  This is much earlier than the prediction in yesterday's ARRL Letter.  We might also see solar flux below 100 around December 24.

    Look for flux values of 120 and 124 on December 2 and 3, 130 on December 4 and 5, 125 on December 6 and 7, then 120, 125, 125, 130, 115 and 110 on December 8 to 13, 105 on December 14 to 17, 100 on December 18 to 23, then 95, 105 and 110 on December 24 to 26, 115 on December 27 to 30, and 120 on December 31, then 125 on January 1 to 6, 2023.

    The planetary A index prediction is 20, 10, 18 and 12 on December 2 to 5, 5 on December 6 and 7, 10 and 8 on December 8 and 9, 5 on December 10 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21, then 20, 15, 12, and 10 on December 22 to 25, then 15, 18, 10, 18 and 10 on December 26 to 30, 5 on December 31 through January 3, 2023, 8 on January 4 and 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "The course of solar and geomagnetic activity and therefore the course of shortwave propagation in the last seven days differed significantly from the week before.

    The solar wind speed has increased significantly (from 300 km/s to a fluctuation between 700 and 800 km/s) and the activity of Earth's magnetic field mostly increased.

    The changes began on 25 November at 0230 UTC when a shock wave in the solar wind hit the Earth.  In the ionosphere we could first observe an increase in MUF.  Further development of the disturbance continued only by further irregular deterioration of shortwave propagation.

    Enhanced solar flaring activity, including Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), did give rise to predictions of higher geomagnetic activity, but without the possibility of more precise timing.

    On December 1, a new larger sunspot group appeared over the southeastern limb of the Sun.  So solar activity will not drop but will probably rise again over the next few days.

    Shortwave propagation should therefore no longer deteriorate, rather the shortest shortwave bands will gradually open up a little better. In the northern hemisphere of the Earth, however, the opening intervals will be shorter than in recent weeks."

    Research: "Iterative Construction of the Optimal Sunspot-Number Series"

    https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX[1]

    This one is spreading fast, all about hams in Montana on PBS:

    https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/[2]

    Thanks to K7SS and N7SO for the above.

    Solar wind news:

    https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW[3]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]

    More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9]
     .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10]  .

    Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30, 2022 were 61, 55, 60, 56, 52, 25, and 12, with a mean of 46.  10.7 cm flux was 109.7, 108.5, 107.1, 107.2, 107, 107.9, and 111, with a mean of 108.3.  Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 16, 15, 24, 25, and 24, with a mean of 18.6.  Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 12, 10, 18, 20, and 17, with a mean of 14.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX
    [2] https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/
    [3] https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive.propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 16 16:28:23 2022
    12/16/2022

    Heightened sunspot activity over the past week no doubt produced the
    great conditions during last weekend's ARRL 10 Meter contest.

    Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
    jumped from 85 to 136.9, while solar flux averages increased from
    137.5 to 150.

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index decreasing
    from 14.4 to 7.7, and middle latitude A index from 9.1 to 6.

    Higher sunspot numbers and lower geomagnetic indicators is an ideal
    combination for favorable HF propagation.

    New sunspots appeared every day except December 12, with one new
    sunspot on December 8, another on December 9, and three more on
    December 10, another on December 13 and one more on December 14.

    N0JK commented on the ARRL 10 Meter contest:

    "What a difference a year makes. 10 was wide open this year for the
    ARRL 10M contest with strong single hop F2 from Kansas to both
    coasts. Europe and Japan in, and I completed WAC (Worked All
    Continents). Operated fixed mobile with 1/4 wave whip. Solar flux
    this year was 148, last year only 78."

    The latest prediction from the USAF via NOAA shows solar flux at
    164, 162, 160, 158, 154, 152 and 150 on December 16-22, then 120 on
    December 23-28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29-31, 145 on
    January 1-8, 2023, then 140, 130, 125 and 120 on January 9-12, and
    115 on January 13-18, then 120 on January 19-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16-17, 10 on December
    18, 8 on December 19-20, then 12, 8, and 15 on December 21-23, 20 on
    December 24-28, then 12, 10, 12, 8, 5 and 18 on December 29 through
    January 3, 2023, 10 on January 4-5, 8 on January 6, 5 on January
    7-14, 10 on January 15-16, then 5, 20, 15 and 12 on January 17-20,
    and 20 on January 21-24.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Evolving solar activity was erratic over the last seven days,
    starting with the Earth entering a high-speed solar wind stream (up
    to 600 km/s) on 8 December.

    "It came from a canyon-shaped coronal hole that approached the
    western limb of the solar disk. The day after, a magnetic filament
    erupted in the Sun's southern hemisphere, but the CME was weak.

    "We expected a slight increase in solar wind speed around December
    12. However, not only did this not occur, but the solar wind slowed
    to 350 km/s in the following days. At the same time, the Earth's
    magnetic field calmed down.

    "On 12 December, nine groups of sunspots were observed on the Sun,
    the largest number so far in the 25th Solar Cycle. Two days later
    there were eleven sunspot groups.

    "Of these, two regions (AR 3163 and 3165, both with the Beta-Gamma
    magnetic configuration) had moderately strong flares (the strongest
    on 14 December at 1442 UT was M6 class, produced the Dellinger
    effect up to a frequency of 15 MHz). The ejected CMEs have missed
    the Earth for now, and we can expect a possible hit from AR3163. The
    increase in solar radiation caused an increase in MUF and therefore
    the shortest shortwave bands opened up regularly.

    "Decrease in solar activity, increasing geomagnetic activity and
    worsening of short wave disturbances can be expected after December
    20."

    The Dellinger Effect is an SID, or "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance."

    https://bit.ly/3HCHytO[1]

    David Moore shares this about our Sun's middle corona:

    https://bit.ly/3hvZX0O[2]

    Nine new sunspots. I do not agree that they are dangerous:

    https://bit.ly/3FuPniB[3]

    Interesting speculation. What happens to cryptocurrency during a
    Carrington event?

    https://bit.ly/3BEYtrR[4]

    Newsweek reports on the terminator event:

    https://bit.ly/3YtyAF3[5]

    More and more news about flares:

    https://bit.ly/3W3Vhyc[6]

    https://bit.ly/3HG0XtK[7]

    https://bit.ly/3WpcD8k[8]

    Another Solar Cycle 19?

    https://bit.ly/3FYgioi[9]

    N0JK reports:

    "Some sporadic-E to W1 from Kansas December 15. Logged K1SIX FN43."

    More 6 meter news from KM0T:

    "Well, it took since 1999, but I finally worked my first ZL. In
    fact, 8 of them. Opening lasted on and off here for about an hour.
    Started hearing them just after 0000 UTC. EN40s were working them
    first for about 10 minutes before, which tipped me off. I Then
    worked AA7A in Arizona at +25, so there was a link perhaps to TEP F2
    hop.

    "There was one station calling an FO, but never saw any report of
    the monitoring FO station showing up on PSK reporter. FO was on the
    exact path to ZL, but I don't think there was a hop there, perhaps a
    blind caller to FO. If anyone actually heard them or worked them,
    let us know as that would be an interesting path.

    "My antennas were as low to the ground as they could be due to the
    ice storm.  Bottom antenna about 25 feet.  (Stacked 6el over 6el,
    20' apart.)

    "Now that I think about it, flux was 151 and SSN 148.

    "I'm pretty sure it was E-skip link, just like when I worked Chatham
    Island here some months ago.

    "The SW had all kinds of storms (as the whole USA did).  I heard snow
    and rain and 'thunder snow' in Arizona.

    "That would make sense of such a strong E-skip link to the SW. With
    the flux only at 151, seems to me this is a good number for TEP if
    you're in the right spot, but not enough to make it to the upper
    Midwest with true F2.

    "I was lucky that our area had ice only in the morning.  It rained
    pretty much all day with bouts of ice, but by the time evening came
    around, my ice was off the antennas.

    "Signals were strong actually. I gave -01 to -17 reports on the ZLs.
    +25 and just below given to stateside 7-land stations I worked in
    between the ZLs.

    "First ZL was at 0003 - ZL3NW with -11 sig - I got a -07 report.
    Strongest ZL was at 0033 - ZL3JT with a -01 sig.  He gave me a +00.

    "Last ZL was ZL1AKW, where the spotlight moved a bit north.  At 0107
    UTC - he had -06 sig and I got a -19 report."

    He did not mention a mode but judging from the signal reports it was
    probably FT8 or FT4.

    W2ZDP reported on December 14:

    "There was a great 6 meter opening yesterday. I first noticed it
    around 2020Z and worked 12 stations in grid 'EM,' all on FT8.

    "I also noticed that a few of them were working ZLs although I
    didn't see the response. After the local 2 meter net at 7 PM local
    time, I again worked a few stations in 'EM' when I started seeing
    both sides of ZLs working stateside stations. After several
    attempts, I finally worked ZL1RS at 0100Z from FM04. Not too bad for
    100 watts and a 4 element beam at 30 feet!"

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, has an
    informative new video:

    https://youtu.be/i0QbCZZpYRY[10]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

    Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14, 2022 were 115, 116, 111,
    141, 142, 159, and 174, with a mean of 136.9. 10.7 cm flux was 143,
    149.1, 141.7, 147,7, 150.8, 153, and 164.7, with a mean of 150.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 8, 10, 6, 4, and 4, with
    a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 9, 6, 7, 5, 3, and 3,
    with a mean of 6.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3HCHytO
    [2] https://bit.ly/3hvZX0O
    [3] https://bit.ly/3FuPniB
    [4] https://bit.ly/3BEYtrR
    [5] https://bit.ly/3YtyAF3
    [6] https://bit.ly/3W3Vhyc
    [7] https://bit.ly/3HG0XtK
    [8] https://bit.ly/3WpcD8k
    [9] https://bit.ly/3FYgioi
    [10] https://youtu.be/i0QbCZZpYRY
    [11] k7ra@arrl.net
    [12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] http://k9la.us/
    [17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Tue Jan 10 19:46:24 2023
    01/10/2023

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 29, one more on December 30 and another on January 1, then two more on January 5.

    Solar activity was a little higher, with average daily sunspot
    number rising from 96.1 to 97, and solar flux averages rose 14
    points to 157.8.

    On Thursday, January 5 the sunspot number rose to 103, above the
    average of 96.1 over the previous seven days.

    Predicted solar flux is 154 on January 6, 152 on January 7-8, 150 on
    January 9, 148 on January 10-11, then 146, 148 and 145 on January
    12-14, 140 on January 15-16, 145 on January 17-19, 150 and 155 on
    January 20-21, 160 on January 22-23, 165 on January 24-26, then 160,
    155, 155, 158 and 155 on January 27-31, 150 and 148 on February 1-2,
    145 on February 3-4, 140 on February 5-6, 150 on February 7-9, 145
    on February 10, 140 on February 11-12, and 145 on February 13-15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on January 6-7, 5 on January
    8-16, then 8, 12, 25, 20 and 10 on January 17-21, 5 on January
    22-24, then 8, 28, 15 and 10 on January 25-28, and 5 on January
    29-30, 18 on January 31 through February 1,15 and 10 on February
    2-3, and 5 on February 4-12.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity increased so rapidly in recent years that earlier
    last year it already reached the level predicted for July 2025, the
    predicted peak of the current 25th solar cycle. The year 2022 ended
    with the highest monthly sunspot count in 7 years.

    "Solar flares are already routinely of moderate magnitude (M-class
    in X-rays), while geomagnetic disturbances are so far only very
    rarely in a higher class than G1 (minor). In the G1 class was also
    the disturbance on 30 December, which was triggered by a CIR
    (co-rotating interaction region) impact, as predicted.

    "This week the Earth is in the impact zone of possible eruptions in
    the AR3176 sunspot group directly opposite our planet, which
    produces M-class solar flares. The strongest so far, on December 30
    at 1938 UTC, was class M3.7, which sent a CME toward Earth with an
    expected arrival on January 4 - and the prediction proved correct -
    the disturbance began at 0254 UTC.

    "The CMEs filled the space between the Sun and Earth, and clouds of
    solar plasma shielded the incoming cosmic rays enough to reach a
    six-year low.

    "Thus, since 26 December, we can observe the 'Forbush Decline,'
    named after the American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic
    rays in the early 20th century and first noticed the relationship
    between them and solar activity. With more CMEs hitting Earth, the
    cosmic ray decline will grow.

    "On January 3 at 1058 UTC, something exploded on the far side of the
    Sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) detected a bright
    CME sweeping across the southeastern limb of the Sun. The source of
    the outburst was likely the old sunspot AR3163, which has been on
    the Sun's far side for the past two weeks. We are now starting to
    see it on the solar disk as AR3182, and we might tentatively expect
    an X-class flare from it.

    "The Geminid meteor shower is coming to Earth these days. On the
    first three days of January, the most meteors arrived on January 3
    at 2127 UTC when the Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR) of 125.3 was
    calculated. Also, the activity of the sporadic-E layer in the
    ionosphere increased, which we immediately noticed in the fading
    shortwave propagation conditions (because sporadic-E is sporadic).

    "ZHR (Zenithal Hourly Rate) of a meteor shower is the number of
    meteors a single observer would see in an hour of peak activity if
    it was at the zenith, assuming the observing conditions are
    excellent (when and where stars with apparent magnitudes up to 6.5
    are visible to the naked eye)."

    OK1HH mentioned sunspot numbers are ahead of the consensus forecast for Solar Cycle 25, so we will compare averages from a year ago with current numbers.

    In Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP001 for 2022, the average
    sunspot number reported was 36.4, and 97 in the current report.
    Average solar flux a year ago was 91.4, compared to 157.8 this week.

    Reader David Moore sends along this link about our Sun's corona:

    https://bit.ly/3XaNsXz[1]

    Here is an article on Siberian Radioheliograph:

    https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm[2]

    Solar outburst:

    https://bit.ly/3X6oUio[3]

    A record of old sunspot numbers can be found here:

    https://bit.ly/3XbX8B2[4]

    Solar Terrestrial Activity Report:

    http://www.solen.info/solar/[5]

    Identifying unknown HF signals:

    https://www.sigidwiki.com/wiki/Category:HF[6]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

    Sunspot numbers for December 29, 2022 through January 4, 2023 were
    113, 121, 82, 94, 94, 89, and 86, with a mean of 97. 10.7 cm flux
    was 162.8, 178.3, 164.9, 152.6, 146.4, 148.5, and 151, with a mean
    of 157.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 31, 16, 14, 8, 7,
    and 21, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 22, 10,
    9, 5, 5, and 17, with a mean of 10.9.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3XaNsXz
    [2] https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm
    [3] https://bit.ly/3X6oUio
    [4] https://bit.ly/3XbX8B2
    [5] http://www.solen.info/solar/
    [6] https://www.sigidwiki.com/wiki/Category:HF
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 13 14:52:15 2023
    01/13/2023

    Wow! Sunspot numbers up, geomagnetic disturbances down. What could
    be better? Okay, maybe Solar Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and
    by far the all time largest.

    But this is now, we are in Solar Cycle 25, and this sunspot cycle is
    emerging better than the consensus forecast. It is predicted to peak
    about 30 months from now in Summer 2025.

    Solar cycles tend to ramp up faster than they decline, so we look
    forward to great HF propagation for years to come.

    There were six new emerging sunspot groups in our reporting week,
    January 5-11. The first two appeared January 5, the next on January
    8, another on January 9  two more January 10 and still another on
    January 12, when the sunspot number was 151.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 97 to 135.9, and average
    daily solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, compared to the previous seven
    days.

    On Thursday, January 12 the noon solar flux was huge, 211.6, far
    above the 181.2 average for the previous week.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 15.4 to 6.7, and
    middle latitude A index from 10.9 to 6.1.

    Compare the solar numbers to last year. A year ago in Propagation
    Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 the average daily sunspot number was only
    42.4 (135.9 now) and average daily solar flux was 101.6 (181.2 now).
    10 and 12 meters now have openings every day.

    The solar flux prediction was revised dramatically upward between
    the Wednesday numbers in Thursday's ARRL Letter and the Thursday
    numbers in this bulletin, from 196 to 210 for January 13.

    Predicted solar flux is 210 on January 13 and 14, then 208, 206 and
    204 on January 15-17, 200 on January 18-19, then 180, 160, 130 and
    135 on January 20-23, 140 on January 24-26, 145 on January 27, then
    155, 155 and 160 on January 28-30, 170 on January 31 through
    February 2, 175 and 180 on February 3-4, 185 on February 5-6, then
    180, 178 and 175 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-12, 145 on
    February 13, 140 on February 14-16, 130 on February 17-18 and
    increasing to 160 by the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, and 8 on January 13-15, 5 on
    January 16-17, then 10, 8, 10 and 8 on January 18-21, 5 on January
    22-24, then 8, 22, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January 29-31,
    then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-5, then 10, 12 and 8
    on February 6-8, 5 on February 9-13, then 8, 15, 10 and 7 on
    February 14-17, and 5 on February 18-20.

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "There was a 6 meter F2 opening between Ecuador and North America
    January 6, 2023 around 1530 UTC, mostly between the Southeast United
    States and Ecuador. Solar Flux was 172.4.

    "Later there was some weak sporadic-E on 6 Meters. I logged W4IMD
    (EM84) at 1942 UTC and W7JW (EN82) on 6 meter FT8 via Es at 1954 UTC
    January 6.

    "High Solar Activity this week."

    N0JK writes "The World Above 50 MHz" column in QST.

    https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz[1]

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
    helioseismology after the beginning of this year, showed that the
    region of active heliographic longitude, gradually approached the
    eastern limb of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their
    arrival. Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11.
    Yet one solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two
    turns back (November 18) only 116.

    "The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
    confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
    maximum at 0057 UTC.

    Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles never
    left the Sun.

    "In the following days AR3182 activity was joined by the newly
    erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An X-class
    flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 at 1850 UTC).

    "Since most of the large flares in the last few days occurred when
    it was nighttime in Europe, blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
    especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
    the eruption on January 9 at 1850 UTC that a shortwave blackout was
    seen in the western Atlantic, including east coast of the U.S. On
    January 10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new
    sunspot group AR3186.

    "As active regions approach the central meridian, the probability of
    Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or more
    importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
    levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
    conditions gradually somewhat worsens during disturbances that are
    difficult to predict accurately."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Pennsylvania (FN20jq) reported, "On
    Thursday, January 12, 29.6 MHz FM went active with 3-hop sporadic-E transatlantic propagation to England, Spain from 1346 thru 1600 UTC,
    then to single hop Es to Puerto Rico at 1813 UTC.

    "Readability ranged from (1) unreadable to (4) practically no
    difficulty, Strength ranged from (1) faint - signals barely
    perceptible to (5) fairly good signals. All signals had deep QSB.

    "Time UTC:    Callsign:      Grid:           Miles
    1346               G3YPZ        JO02bs      3,494
    1354,1528      G4RIE          IO83rn       3,372
    1413,1521      2E0PLO       IO91wm     3,511
    1600               EA2CCG      IN92ao      3,660
    1813               KP4NVX      FK68vl       1,625"

    Here is a photo of the Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3kfmXSR[2]

    One of a Solar flare:

    https://bit.ly/3W9EWav[3]

    Solar news in the Washington Post:

    https://wapo.st/3iul6sN[4]

    An article on Radio blackouts:

    https://bit.ly/3Xvc4dV[5]

    The Parker Solar Probe:

    https://youtu.be/pOZhPz92Dic[6]

    The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM[7]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

    Sunspot numbers January 5 through 11, 2023 were 103, 101, 104, 117,
    142, 201, and 183, with a mean of 135.9. 10.7 cm flux was 154.3,
    172.4, 178.9, 183.8, 190.9, 193, and 195.1, with a mean of 181.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7, and 9, with a
    mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8,
    with a mean of 6.1.
     


    [1] https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz
    [2] https://bit.ly/3kfmXSR
    [3] https://bit.ly/3W9EWav
    [4] https://wapo.st/3iul6sN
    [5] https://bit.ly/3Xvc4dV
    [6] https://youtu.be/pOZhPz92Dic
    [7] https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 20 16:08:29 2023
    01/20/2023

    Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 opened with "Wow!"
    I don't know what to say about this week, except it is beyond wow.

    This actually has me thinking about Solar Cycle 19.

    Lately we have seen solar flux at the same levels we saw at the peak
    of Solar Cycle 23. If we are about 30 months away from the peak of
    this Solar Cycle 25, could this get us to the 1957-59 levels last
    seen in Solar Cycle 19? Stories from that time tell of worldwide
    coverage 24x7 on 10 meter AM from low power mobile stations.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 135.9 to 173.4, while
    average solar flux went to 221.8 from 181.2. Yesterday the thrice
    daily solar flux reported from the Penticton, British Columbia
    observatory indicated rising solar flux at 224.6, 226.1 and 230.1.
    These are recorded at 1800, 2000 and 2200 UTC. It is the middle
    number, at local noon, that is recorded as the official number for
    the day.

    From Spaceweather.com: "If sunspot production continues apace for
    the rest of January, the monthly sunspot number will reach a 20-year
    high."

    Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 13.9,

    On January 15 the planetary A index reached a peak of 30, a very
    high value indicating a geomagnetic storm. Conditions were stormy
    throughout the week, due to flares and CMEs. On that day in
    Fairbanks, Alaska the college A index was 53, a very high number.
    There was a large polar cap absorption event.

    Nine new sunspot groups appeared during this reporting week, January
    12-18. One on January 12, four on January 13, two more on January
    15, and two more, one each on January 17 and 18.

    Predicted solar flux is 220 on January 20-21, 215 on January 22-23,
    210 on January 24-25, 215 on January 26-27, 185 on January 28-29,
    190 on January 30 through February 2, 195 and 200 on February 3-4,
    205 on February 5-6, 210 on February 7-11, then a big jump to 235
    and 230 on February 12-13, 225 on February 14-16, 220 on February
    17, then 215 on February 18-19, 210 and 200 on February 20-21, 190
    on February 22-23, and 185 on February 24-25. Solar flux is expected
    to rise above 200 again in the first week of March.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on January 20-22, 5 on
    January 23-24, then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January
    29 through 31, then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-6,
    then 12, 12, 15 and 12 on February 7-10, 5 on February 11-13, then
    8, 15, 10 and 7 on February 14-17, 5 on February 18-20, then 7, 18,
    10 and 7 on February 21-24, 5 on February 25-26, then 7, 18, 12 and
    8 on February 27 through March 2.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
    helioseismology at the beginning of this year, showed the region of
    active heliographic longitude gradually approached the eastern limb
    of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their arrival.

    "Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11. Yet one
    solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two turns
    back (November 18) only 116.

    "The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
    confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
    maximum at 0057 UTC.

    "Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles
    never left the Sun.

    "In the following days, the activity of AR3182 was joined by the
    newly erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An
    X-class flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 1850
    UTC). Most of the large flares in the last few days occurred during
    nighttime in Europe. Blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
    especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
    the eruption on January 9 that a shortwave blackout was seen in the
    western Atlantic, including the East Coast of the U.S. On January
    10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new sunspot
    group AR3186.

    "As active regions approached the central meridian, the probability
    of Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or
    more importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
    levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
    gradually worsens, especially during disturbances that are difficult
    to predict accurately."

    Sam, KY8R commented on 30 meter propagation:

    "Reading your report it looks good, but I have to tell you 30M is
    like a dead horse in the Sonoran Desert."

    I replied:

    "On FT8 and I make many contacts on 30 meters, but it seems to be
    best around sunrise or sunset, before and after.

    "I just did a prediction with W6ELprop and it shows 30 meters from
    my location (CN87) open during daylight hours to the East Coast, and
    to Texas 24x7 with brief dropouts at 7am local here (1500 UTC) and
    10:30 PM (0630 UTC).

    "From your location, it looks different. To Texas it fades starting
    at 0200 UTC and stays dead until 1400 UTC and is strongest at 1500
    and 2330 UTC.

    "To Atlanta from DM33 (you) it is weakest from 1700-2100 UTC. Of
    course, these are statistical approximations."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania FN20jq is having fun
    on 10 meter FM.

    "Today (January 19) I made a 2-way QSO with John, AL7ID in Fairbanks
    for five minutes from 2028-2033 UTC on the 29.6 MHz national calling
    frequency, then QSY 29.5 FM.

    "I just barely heard him mention the QSY to 29.5.

    "Initially he was 2x2 QSB, then minutes later 3x4 QSB.

    "The FM signal was spreading apart due to F2 propagation and made it
    difficult at times.

    "He was my first Alaska 10-meter FM simplex contact!"

    Mike has a YouTube video of both his Alaska QSO, and another with
    Argentina:

    https://youtu.be/NDZACCqMd08[1]

    Earlier, Mike reported:

    "On Tuesday, January 17th, 29.6 MHz FM went active with multi-hop
    sporadic-E or F2 propagation into France, United Kingdom, Mexico,
    Alaska, and Argentina into the northeast USA.

    "Readability ranged from unreadable to practically no difficulty,
    Strength ranged from faint - signals barely perceptible to fair
    signals. All the signals had light QSB.

    "UTC:    Callsign:      Grid:
    1544     F5SDD         JN23qf
    1617     G4RIE          IO83rn
    1803     XE2LVM       DL92dp
    2040     AL7ID           BP64ku
    2040     LU1HJS        FF79XX"

    Jon Jones, N0JK reported:

    "Some interesting 6 meter propagation on January 16.

    "First, there appeared to be a 6 meter F2 opening between Puerto
    Rico and Colorado that morning. K0RI in DM78 and NO0T/P in DN70
    spotted KP4AJ in FK68 around 1550 UTC on 6 meter FT8. No
    intermediate stations spotted. The 10.7 cm solar flux was reported
    to be 234. [Jon had probably not seen the updated flux for that day
    yet. It was actually 228.1 and 234.3 the day before.]

    "Later there was sporadic-E from Kansas to Mexico. I logged XE2JS in
    DL68 at 1605 UTC. He was very strong.

    "That afternoon the TN8K DXpedition to the Congo Republic worked
    PJ4MM, V26OC, and FG8OJ on 6 meter FT8 via F-layer propagation around
    2230 UTC.

    "The ARRL January VHF contest is this weekend. There is a
    possibility of sporadic-E and even some F2 on 6 meters in this
    contest."

    Later Jon reported a 6 meter contact with Mexico.

    Sunspots in the news:

    https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4[2]

    Sky & Telescope with an article on giant sunspot group AR3190:

    https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/see-a-giant-sunspot/[3]

    An article on 11 year, 100 year, and 2300 year cycles:

    https://bit.ly/3kjVSxC[4]

    Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/e-p-tpNkOss[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation [7]and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

    Sunspot numbers January 12 through 18, 2023 were 151, 181, 170, 177,
    186, 185, and 164, with a mean of 173.4. 10.7 cm flux was 211.6,
    208.5, 227.8, 234.3, 228.1, 221.7, and 220.3, with a mean of 221.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 12, 11, 30, 14, 6, and 15,
    with a mean of 13.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 9, 17, 10,
    5, and 11, with a mean of 10.

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/NDZACCqMd08
    [2] https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4
    [3] https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/see-a-giant-sunspot/
    [4] https://bit.ly/3kjVSxC
    [5] https://youtu.be/e-p-tpNkOss
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 27 15:36:25 2023
    01/27/2023

    From the first week of this year, we saw a dramatic and welcome
    increase in solar activity, but it softened in this reporting week,
    January 19-25.

    Average daily sunspot numbers starting with the final reporting week
    for 2022 were 96.1, 97, 135.9. 173.4 and 162.

    Over the same period, average daily solar flux was 143.8, 157.8,
    181.2, 221.8 and 198.9.

    The northern hemisphere Winter Solstice was over a month ago, and
    through the next two months we will see a gradual transition toward
    Spring conditions.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month shows values peaking near
    205 on February 14-15, but flux values in the next few days are
    lower than those posted in Thursday's ARRL Letter.

    Predicted numbers are 150 on January 27-28, 145 on January 29-30,
    140 on January 31 through February 1, then 145, 150 and a big jump
    to 185 on February 2-4, 190 on February 5-6, 195 on February 7-12,
    200 on February 13, 205 on February 14-15, 200 on February 16-18,
    then 195, 200, and 190 on February 19-21, 185 on February 22-23, 180
    on February 24-25, then 175 on February 26 through March 1, then
    180, 185 and 190 on March 2-4. Flux values are expected to keep
    rising, peaking above 200 again after March 10.

    Predicted planetary A index, an indicator of geomagnetic instability
    is 8 on January 27-28, 5 on January 29 through February 1, 12 and 8
    on February 2-3, 5 on February 4-6, 12 on February 7-8, then 15, 12
    and 5 on February 9-11, 8 on February 12-13, 5 on February 14-17,
    then 8, 10, 10, 12 and 10 on February 18-22, 8 on February 23-25,
    then 5 on February 26-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on February 28 through
    March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - January 26, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "We had a week of increased solar activity with areas of sunspots
    visible to the naked eye. These were AR3190 and AR3192. The ejected
    CMEs produced auroras at higher latitudes. Since the geomagnetic
    disturbances were mostly short-lived, they did not cause a
    noticeable deterioration in shortwave propagation.

    "A CME hit the Earth on 17 January at around 2200 UTC. At the same
    time, it also hit the tail of comet ZTF (C/2022 E3) and broke it! A
    piece of the tail of comet ZTF was chipped off and then carried away
    by the solar wind.

    "In recent days, AR3190 was the largest and most active, but even it
    produced no more than moderately powerful flares. Both large
    regions, AR3190 in the southwest and AR3192 in the northwest, are
    beyond the edge of the solar disk by January 26. This is associated
    with a significant drop in solar activity. While we know of other
    active regions beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk, these are
    not large enough to expect a repeat of the January pattern in
    February. But we expect a similarly erratic pattern contributing to
    limited forecasting capabilities."

    Long time reader and contributor David Moore sends us this:

    https://bit.ly/3Jg7V9B[1]

    An article about Starspots:

    https://bit.ly/3Hxoywn[2]

    KA3JAW is still having fun with 10 meter FM on 29.6 MHz.

    On January 26 from 1430-1450 UTC he worked SV6EXH. With QSB, signals were 3x3 to 5x5. Earlier on January 21 at 1646 UTC he worked DM5TS, signals 4x5 with QSB.

    Jon Jones, N0JK reported:

    "Sunday morning (January 22, 2023) of the ARRL January VHF Contest
    had some great propagation on the 6 meter band. I operated portable
    signing W1AW/0 for VOTA. I was surprised when I turned on the radio
    after setting up and the FT8 band map screen was full of strong
    traces at 1505 UTC.

    "There was a surprise sporadic-E opening Sunday morning to W1, W2,
    W3, VE3, and W8. The Ontario stations were booming in and I had a
    pileup calling. Even some F2 with PJ4MM in FK52 peaking at -8 dB at
    1554 UTC.

    "Even more amazing MM0AMW decoded several W9 stations on 6 meters.
    Several stations I worked, such as KW9A were spotted into Scotland.
    Unsure if the propagation mode was multi-hop Es or F2?

    "Later that evening an Es -- TEP opening from the northeast states
    to South America."

    More dramatic solar warnings.

    https://bit.ly/3XGqNmL[3]

    Here is a prediction that was WAY off:

    https://bit.ly/3Jn9UJl[4]

    Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has a new video:

    https://youtu.be/Vuv3fRUD1Mo[5]

    This weekend is the CQ World-Wide 160-Meter CW contest.

    Check https://www.cq160.com[6] for details.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

    Sunspot numbers January 19 through 25, 2023 were 166, 197, 194, 166,
    144, 127, and 140, with a mean of 162. 10.7 cm flux was 226.1,
    217.5, 208.7, 198.6, 189.1, 180.2, and 171.8, with a mean of 198.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 17, 9, 7, 4, and 7, with a
    mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 11, 7, 5, 3, and 5,
    with a mean of 5.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3Jg7V9B
    [2] https://bit.ly/3Hxoywn
    [3] https://bit.ly/3XGqNmL
    [4] https://bit.ly/3Jn9UJl
    [5] https://youtu.be/Vuv3fRUD1Mo
    [6] https://www.cq160.com
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 3 13:52:19 2023
    02/03/2023

    Solar activity softened again this week, with average daily sunspot
    numbers changing from 162 to 80.7, and solar flux from 198.9 to
    139.5.

    This is quite a dramatic shift from the excitement of a couple of
    weeks ago. To review, average weekly sunspot numbers from the first
    Propagation Forecast bulletin of 2023 went from 97 to 135.9, 173.4
    and 162. Average weekly solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, 221.8 and
    198.9.

    This variability is expected. Soon, perhaps in the next solar
    rotation, activity will rise again. The graphs we see of smoothed
    sunspot numbers are smooth because the numbers are averaged over a
    whole year.

    Geomagnetic numbers barely changed at all, with planetary A index
    shifting only from 8.1 to 7.9 and the middle latitude numbers did
    not change at all, 5.9 last week and 5.9 this week.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on February 3, 140 on February 4-5, 145
    on February 6, 150 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-13, 150 on
    February 14-16, 145 on February 17, 140 on February 18-19, 135 on
    February 20, 130 on February 21-23, 125 on February 24-25, 140 on
    February 26-27, 135 on February 28 through March 4, then 140 and 145
    on March 5-6, 150 on March 7-8. and 155 on March 9-12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 5 on February 3-5, 10 on
    February 6-7, 8 on February 8-9, then 12, 5, 8 and 8 on February
    10-13, 5 on February 14-17, then 8, 7, 5 and 5 on February 18-21, 10
    on February 22-24, 5 on February 25-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on
    February 28 to March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8,
    then 12, 8 and 7 on March 9-11 and 5 on March 12-16.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere February 3-9, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "January this year was another surprise in the development of Solar
    Cycle 25, although we are still about two years away from its peak.
    Sunspots have grown larger, while the configuration of the magnetic
    fields that make them up has become increasingly complex, leading to
    an increase in the number and intensity of eruptions, so far only
    moderately powerful.

    "Solar flux between 12 and 21 January was above 200, while the solar
    wind increased.

    "In the last week, after the large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192
    fell behind the western limb of the solar disk, solar activity
    decreased. Between January 27-29 and February 1, solar wind
    intensified, apparently still blowing from the active regions that
    had already set.

    "Further, we expect an irregular evolution without major
    fluctuations. Helioseismological observations show that the activity
    of AR3190 and AR3192 continue on the Sun's far side. We'll have to
    wait another week for their reappearance on the eastern limb."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania reports again on his
    10 meter FM activity. He notes the daily solar flux dropped about
    100 points from mid-January, but good 10 meter propagation
    continues.

    Daily from 1300-1600 UTC he has good propagation to Europe, and is
    recently hearing Israel on 10 meter FM, about 5,700 miles away via
    F2 propagation.

    Mike notes, "Remember, 29.6 MHz is the national FM calling
    frequency, after making the initial contact you should QSY to a
    lower frequency, such as 29.5 or 29.49 MHz, to continue the QSO."

    Jim Hadlock, posting to the email list for the Western Washington DX
    Club noted that sunspot numbers recently hit a 9-year high.

    Jim posted this from Spaceweather.com:

    https://bit.ly/40DEzsj[1]

    Scott Avery, WA6LIE wrote:

    "Today was a fluke on 10 meters FT8.  I worked LA7HJA on FT8 on
    Thursday February 2nd at 0041 UTC.  He gave me a +04 and I gave him
    a -13 dB report.  Great reports and tried calling one other LA, but
    no luck. I confirmed the QSO with his ClubLog.

    "For the past month or so, European openings are from about
    1500-1730 UTC here in California.

    "Have no clue to the method of propagation on this late afternoon's
    QSO. LP?

    "I was just using a wire Delta Loop at 30' feedpoint, part of my
    inverted Vees all common feedpoint.

    "You know in this hobby you just got to be in the right place at the
    right time!"

    Toivo Mykkanen, W8TJM in Liberty Lake, Washington wrote:

    "Just had the best Aurora Path into Scandinavia since we last spoke
    last year. Today, 1 Feb, I was able to work 4 stations on SSB in
    Finland from Eastern Washington and all of them were 10-15 dB over
    S9 with a slight bit of flutter. It was 10 PM in Finland, well after
    15 meters usually shuts down there.   Was great to connect with my
    heritage as my parents are from Finland. The Finnish stations were
    working stations all across the USA and Canada."

    Bil Paul, KD8JUI, recalling television reception at the peak of
    Solar Cycle 19, wrote:

    "We were in Wisconsin, around '58 or '59, and we could usually only
    pick up with good reception two TV stations. One Sunday morning I
    got up and switched on the TV. I started getting good reception from
    the SE U.S., Georgia and Florida.

    "As time went on, the skip gradually changed to receiving Alabama
    and Mississippi, and finally ended with Texas. I'm not sure what
    frequencies were being used for those channels (2 through 13) back
    then."

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

    Sunspot numbers January 26 through February 1, 2023 were 104, 84,
    76, 80, 67, 65, and 89, with a mean of 80.7. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,
    144.9, 137.6, 137, 135.9, 137, and 133.5, with a mean of 139.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 9, 10, 5, 5, 9, and 6, with a
    mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 5, 4, 6, and 3,
    with a mean of 5.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/40DEzsj
    [2] k7ra@arrl.net
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 10 16:05:38 2023
    02/10/2023

    A period of rising solar activity returned this week.

    Ten new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week (February 2-8),
    two on February 3, one each on February 4-5, four more on February
    6, and two more on February 8.

    On February 9, three more sunspot groups emerged.

    Early on February 9 Spaceweather.com reported a large emerging
    sunspot over our Sun's southeast horizon.

    Average daily sunspot number this week rose from 80.7 to 95.1, and
    average daily solar flux from 139.5 to 155.9.

    On Thursday, February 9 both the sunspot number and solar flux were
    above the average for the previous seven days. Sunspot number at 150
    compared to the average 95.1 and solar flux at 214.9 compared to the
    average of 155.9. Both indicate an upward trend.

    Geomagnetic indicators rose, planetary A index from 7.9 to 11.7,
    middle latitude numbers from 5.9 to 7.6.

    The rise in geomagnetic activity was related to solar wind late in
    the reporting week.

    The solar flux prediction on Wednesday was 192 for February 9 (the
    actual noon solar flux was 214.9), then 195 on February 10-13. As
    you can see below, the Thursday prediction is more optimistic for
    the next few days.

    Predicted solar flux is 214 on February 10, 212 on February 11-13,
    then 208, 205 and 202 on February 14-16, 150 on February 17-18, then
    145, 140, 135, 130 and 135 on February 19-23, 130 on February 24-26,
    125 on February 27, 130 on February 28 through March 3, then 135,
    150 and 160 on March 4-6, 155 on March 7-8, 160 on March 9, and 155
    on March 10-12, then 150 on March 13-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8  on February 10-11, then 5
    on February 12-17, 8 on February 18-19, 5 on February 20-21, 10 on
    February 22-24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25-27, and 5, 5, and 8
    on February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5, and 10 on March 3-5, then
    15, 15, 12 and 8 on March 6-9, then 5 on March 10-16, 8 on March
    17-18, 5 on March 19-20 and 10 on March 21-23.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 9, 2023.

    "Solar activity was lower between 26 January and 6 February, as
    expected. Two weeks ago, large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192,
    fell behind the Sun's western limb. They have now appeared near the
    eastern limb as AR3217 and AR3218. In particular, the region of
    AR3217 was already letting us know of its activity with plasma
    bursts before we could observe it.

    "Thereafter we observed moderate flares in it. AR3217 and AR3218
    will now move through the solar disk, and the increase in solar
    activity will continue.

    "On February 7, rapidly developing sunspot group AR3213 suddenly
    appeared, where at most only two small spots could be observed
    shortly before. Medium-sized flares were observed in AR3213 in the
    following days.

    "Another new activity was the increase in the Earth's magnetic field
    activity starting on February 6.

    "The subsequent increase in the MUF (highest usable frequencies of
    the ionospheric F2 layer) has been slow and irregular so far. We
    will have to wait a few more days for its higher values."

    Check out Scott Craig, WA4TTK and his Solar Data Plotting Utility.
    He wrote it several decades ago back in the days of MS-DOS, and the
    Windows version still works today. It displays sunspot numbers and
    solar flux all the way back to January 1, 1989:

    http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp[1]

    Click the "Download SOL313W.ZIP" file to install the program, then
    download the updated GRAPH.dat file for the latest data. It is
    updated to last week, so you can try out the data insertion on this
    bulletin.

    He posted a new copy of the data file, provided by N1API.

    The utility will update the data every week by pointing it toward a
    copy of our bulletin in .txt format.

    The GRAPH.dat file is in text format and can be imported into a
    spreadsheet program to display the data any way you want.

    Tech Times and Weather.com articles on a Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/40J3g6m[2]

    https://bit.ly/3lojTnY[3]

    KB1DK sent this article about something occurring on our Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3Xju0r9[4]

    Larry, W0OGH in Cochise County, Arizona wrote:

    "Who says you can't have fun running QRP?

    "I started playing with QRP on CW, my KX3 at 10W and 10M 4 element
    Yagi just after February 1.

    "Why so late in the game? I don't know but maybe it was because the
    signals took such an upturn in strength.

    "Have been working some POTA stations QRP but no DX until February 1
    when I worked E77DX, OK9PEP, PA1CC, DS2HWS, UA1CE, YL3FT, UY2VM, HB0/HB9LCW, OT4A, ON4KHG, S01WS, ZX89L, CX5FK, 9A/UW1GZ, LZ1ND, PA3EVY, YU1JW, F6IQA, EA6ACA, ON5ZZ, GM4ATA, OP4F, EI0CZ and many more, all on 10 meters.

    "But the kicker and best of all was working EP2ABS on the morning of
    2/6/23 at 1654 UTC on 28.0258 MHz.

    "First time ever in 65 years that I have ever worked an Iran station
    much less heard one. He was really strong and calling CQ getting no
    answers. At the same time I called him, another station called as
    well but he came back to me.

    "Thereafter he had a pileup, but his signal started dropping off, so
    I caught him at the right time. Maybe a duct? Yep, the DX is out
    there on 10M and when the band is hot, you gotta be there.

    "I have even worked some AM stations on and above 29.000 MHz with
    QRP. Lots more fun than high power which in my case is 100W from my
    K3."

    A friend here in Seattle worked him on the same day, was very
    surprised, and mentioned a friend in California who worked EP2ABS
    with 100 watts and an 18 foot wire.

    Another "news" source reporting rising solar activity as some sort
    of existential threat:

    https://bit.ly/3YiRcXP[5]

    https://bit.ly/3RQ8CZz[6]

    A more reliable source:

    https://bit.ly/3YAAIu4[7]

    Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, latest report from February 5:

    https://youtu.be/1Bcmzj7h_mY[8]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for February 2 through 8, 2023 were 56, 74, 66, 79,
    139, 110, and 142, with a mean of 95.1. 10.7 cm flux was 134.9,
    134.5, 139, 144, 156.7, 184.7, and 197.6, with a mean of 155.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 6, 5, 18, 20, and 18, with
    a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 3, 13, 12, and
    12, with a mean of 7.6.

     


    [1] http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp
    [2] https://bit.ly/40J3g6m
    [3] https://bit.ly/3lojTnY
    [4] https://bit.ly/3Xju0r9
    [5] https://bit.ly/3YiRcXP
    [6] https://bit.ly/3RQ8CZz
    [7] https://bit.ly/3YAAIu4
    [8] https://youtu.be/1Bcmzj7h_mY
    [9] k7ra@arrl.net
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 24 17:32:24 2023
    02/24/2023

    Solar activity plunged this reporting week, although there was great
    the excitement when the solar flux on February 17 was reported as a
    record breaking 343.1.

    Because it was the noon reading, it is still reported by NOAA as the
    solar flux, but this was a false reading when the observatory at
    Penticton, British Columbia was swamped by energy from a solar
    flare.

    So, in this report, I have chosen the 1800 UTC flux value, which was
    165.

    Average daily sunspot number plunged from 182.4 to 107, while
    average solar flux dropped from 196.4 to 162.4. If I had not changed
    the 343.1 to 165, solar flux average would have been 187.9, more
    than 25 points higher than what we report here.

    Six new sunspots emerged over the week, one on February 16, one each
    on February 18 and 19, and three more on February 20, then one day
    after the end of the reporting week, on February 23, two more
    sunspot groups appeared.

    The solar flux prediction for the next month shows a peak value of
    180 for March 7-13.

    Predicted values are 148 on February 24, 146 on February 25-27, 142
    on February 28, 140 on March 1-2, 145, 150, 155, and 165 on March
    3-6, 180 on March 7-13, then 175 and 170 on March 14-15, 160 on
    March 16-17, then 155, 160, 150, 140 and 135 on March 18-22, 125 on
    March 23-24, 130 on March 25, then 140 on March 26-28, 145 on March
    29-30, then 150, 155 and 165 on March 31 through April 2. Beginning
    on April 3, predicted flux values are back to 180, continuing into
    the following week.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on February 24-25, then 12, 18,
    20, 16 and 10 on February 26 through March 2, 5 on March 3-4, then
    15, 18, 15 and 8 on March 5-8, 5 on March 9-14, 15 on March 15, 8 on
    March 16-17, 5 on March 18-20, 10 on March 21-23, 5 on March 24-25,
    and 8 on March 26-27, then 5, 8, 5, 5, 15, 18, 15 and 8 on March 28
    through April 4.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "A week ago, on February 17, we vainly awaited the arrival of a CME,
    and at least a weak G1-class geomagnetic storm. Instead, on February
    17 at 2016 UTC, we were treated to a strong X2.2-class solar flare
    in the newly emerging sunspot group AR3229. X-ray and UV radiation
    as well triggered the Dellinger Effect over the Americas.  The
    Dellinger Effect is a Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance.

    "Frequencies up to 30 MHz were attenuated for more than an hour
    after the flare. The arrival of the CME affected the Earth's
    magnetic field at 1039 UTC on February 20. However, most of the
    particle cloud passed outside the Earth, therefore there was no
    geomagnetic storm, but only an increase in geomagnetic activity.

    "The new AR3234 produced M-class flares in the following days.
    Dellinger events could only affect radio wave propagation up to 20
    MHz (as long as we had the Sun overhead, of course).

    "Thereafter no significant flares were observed, so no CMEs were
    directed toward us. But that may change when AR3234 turns toward
    Earth. In other words, when the Sun's rotation moves it to the
    central meridian, which will happen by the end of the week.
    Primarily, the overall activity of the Sun and most likely the
    Earth's magnetic field will depend on its activity."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "There was a nice 6 meter F2 opening on February 16.

    "I logged HC1MD/2 in grid FI57 on 50 MHz FT8 at 1916 UTC. I found
    this opening by checking the DX Maps website. HC1MD/2 had a strong,
    steady signal. I operated from home using an attic dipole antenna.
    Also logged HC2FG.

    "Other area 6 meter operators such as WQ0P (EM19) and KF0M (EM17)
    also worked stations in Chile. The K index was 4, which I suspect
    may have helped.

    "On February 18 a number of North American stations worked Robert,
    3B9FR around 1600 UTC on 6 Meter FT8.

    "3B9FR is on Rodriguez Island in the Indian Ocean off the southeast
    coast of South Africa.

    "Conditions were great in the ARRL International DX CW Contest on 10
    meters. I operated a couple of hours Sunday morning running 5 watts
    and a quarter wave whip fixed mobile. Worked over a hundred stations
    in Europe, the Caribbean, South America and Africa. Many of the
    Europeans were over S-9."

    Dick, K2KA wrote:

    "February 21 at 1544 UTC on 6 meters I worked FR4OO and then at 1558
    UTC I worked 3B9FR. Both were FT8. I happened to be at the radio at
    the right time. It was an amazing albeit brief opening here. They
    were obviously new countries for me on 6 meters. They were #120 and
    #121, respectively.

    "My station here is IC-7610, ACOM 700s, antenna is a M2 6M7JHV 7el
    on 30 ft. boom at 40 ft."

    A story about a Solar Tsunami:

    https://yhoo.it/3EyYOxJ[1]

    A time-lapse video of a Flare:

    https://bit.ly/3Ikc0aQ[2]

    Aki, JQ2UOZ wrote:

    "Last weekend I participated in the ARRL International DX CW Contest
    using an output power of 500 mW and a dipole antenna.

    "The band conditions on 10m and 15m were amazing. I worked 9 East
    Coast stations (VT, ME, DE, CT, NY, NH, PA, VA and FL) on 10m and 6
    East Coast stations (MA, 2 NH, 2 PA and MD) on 15m. Usually, the
    band conditions on 10m in February are not so good even at the
    sunspot cycle maximum. This is the first time I worked East Coast
    stations on 10m in the ARRL International DX CW Contest using 0.5W
    and a dipole. Thanks to good-ears stations who worked me."

    Scott Hower wrote:

    "With the exception of Thursday the 16th, 10 meters was hot this
    week. On Wednesday February 15th I decoded 3A2MW in Monaco around
    1233 to 1300 UTC using FT8 with his signal level as high as -13 dB.
    This is the first time I have ever been able to receive Franco's
    signal after years of trying on 10 meters. Unfortunately, he could
    not receive me. 9N7AA has also been coming in every morning (except
    the 16th) with levels as high as -1 dB using FT8 F/H. I finally
    logged him on Friday the 17th."

    Scott did not mention his call sign, but I think he may be K7KQ.

    Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/wm7tXN2EUCY[3]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for February 16 through 22, 2023 were 101, 86, 109,
    112, 135, 106, and 100, with a mean of 107. 10.7 cm flux was 163.2,
    165, 167.2, 169, 159.8, 160.9, and 151.9, with a mean of 162.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 6, 6, 7, 8, 17, and 6, with a
    mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 21, 4, 5, 4, 6, 15, and 4,
    with a mean of 8.4.

     


    [1] https://yhoo.it/3EyYOxJ
    [2] https://bit.ly/3Ikc0aQ
    [3] https://youtu.be/wm7tXN2EUCY
    [4] k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 3 19:45:52 2023
    03/03/2023

    This was a busy week for geomagnetic storms. A solar wind stream
    from an equatorial hole and a CME blew geomagnetic numbers seemingly
    off the scale, with the planetary A index on Monday hitting 94.
    Aurora was visible as far south as 40 degrees latitude. Imagine a
    line running from Reno, Nevada through Provo, Utah then Denver, then
    the Kansas-Nebraska state line, Quincy, Illinois, Dayton, Ohio and Philadelphia.

    This week the source of the 10.7 cm solar flux, the DRAO observatory
    at Penticton, British Columbia, was again saturated by solar wind on
    February 25 and the measurement was 279.3. NOAA corrected this to
    152, which I thought was a bit too low. The other recent saturation
    was on February 17 at 343.1, but for some reason NOAA let this
    stand.

    I corrected it in this bulletin to 165, which was that morning's
    1800 UTC reading:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt[1]

    This week we saw two new sunspot groups appear on February 23,
    another on the following day, another on February 27, on February 28
    one more, two more on March 1, and another on March 2.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 107 to 126.3, but average
    daily solar flux declined from 162.4 to 158.2.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 10.6 to 27.7.

    Over the next few weeks it appears that solar flux values should hit
    a peak around March 17-18.

    Predicted solar flux is 165 March 3-5, 170 and 175 on March 6-7, 180
    on March 8-9, 165 on March 10-12, 170 on March 13-15, 175 on March
    16, 180 on March 17-18, then 175, 170 and 165 on March 19-21, 160 on
    March 22-23, 155 on March 24-26, 150 on March 27-28, then 145 on
    March 29-30, then 140, 145, 150, 155 and 160 on March 31 through
    April 4, then 165 on April 5-8, and 170 on April 9-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12, 20, 18, 16 and 8 on March 3-8,
    5 on March 9-14, then 15, 8, 8, 5, 8 and 15 on March 15-20, 5 on
    March 21-23, then 12, 16, 56, 32, 16 and 10 on March 24-29, 8 on
    March 30-31, then 16, 18, 15 and 8 on April 1-4, and 5 on April
    5-10.

    Note the predicted A index of 56 and 32 on March 26-27, suggest a
    return of this week's disturbance in the next solar rotation.

    Here is a Newsweek report about radio blackout:

    https://bit.ly/3YsJREJ[2]

    A story from Sky & Telescope:

    https://bit.ly/3ZbC1As[3]

    Click past all the offers and pop-ups to view this article:

    https://bit.ly/3ymZrqR[4]

    That report is from Western Washington, where I live. Unfortunately
    the sky was overcast, but observers in Eastern Washington were able
    to see the aurora. Remember that many of the aurora images you see
    were from cameras with a long exposure time, which makes them much
    brighter than what you see with unassisted vision.

    Thanks to spaceweather.com for this NASA movie of sunspot group
    AR3234 growing as it comes over our Sun's eastern limb:

    https://bit.ly/3J1IIiJ[5]

    Spaceweather.com[6] also reported that the average sunspot number for
    February was among the highest of the last 10 years.

    Here is data on Solar Cycle 25 progress:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[7]

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 3-9, 2023:

    "Quiet: March 3-5, 9
    Unsettled: March 4-6, 8-9
    Active: March 6-7
    Minor storm: possible March 6-7

    "At February 27, we recorded the highest geomagnetic activity since
    2008. At Budkov observatory, the three last K indices of this day
    were at level 6. Over the next few days we expect geomagnetic
    activity decrease. Until Sunday, March 5, we expect mostly quiet
    conditions. More unsettled conditions are expected between Sunday,
    March 5, and Thursday, March 9.

    "Between March 6-7, active conditions with likely storming event is
    possible. Wednesday, March 7, we expect unsettled conditions.

    "Tomas Bayer, Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague, Budkov
    observatory (BDV)."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere March 3-9, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "A week ago, we observed an increase in the size and flare activity
    of sunspot group AR3234 in the northeast of the solar disk. But more interesting was the activity in the northwestern quadrant, where a
    magnetic filament associated with the relatively little noticeable
    sunspot AR3229 erupted on February 24. It set off a chain reaction
    in which the filament lifted off and cut through the solar
    atmosphere at 1949 UTC.

    "In AR3229 a long-duration M3-class solar flare (LDE) at 2030 UTC,
    with a CME, partially directed toward Earth. At the same time,
    gaseous material flowed from an equatorial coronal hole in the solar atmosphere. Earth was hit by two CMEs on February 27 and 28. The
    arrival of the first one was followed by a G1 to G2 class
    geomagnetic storm, while the second was followed by a G3 class
    storm.

    "In the ever-growing sunspot group AR3234, already in the
    northwestern solar disk, an M8.6-class solar flare with a possible
    weak CME was observed at 1750 UTC on 28 February.

    "Simultaneously, the Dellinger effect knocked out shortwave links at frequencies up to 30 MHz around the Pacific Ocean with a duration up
    to one hour.

    "The CME is expected to arrive at Earth perhaps as late as March 4,
    delivering only a glancing blow to the Earth's magnetic field.
    Starting on March 4, a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is likely.
    Solar activity will not decrease, as another active region in the
    southeastern solar disk will emerge in the meantime."

    Here is a conversation about 6 meters:

    "Gents, some 6M DX to report here at KM0T.

    "Last few days, February 25-27, there was some DX worked locally so
    I was trying to keep an eye on things. Then we got some aurora from
    some flare impacts, and sure enough on the 27th got a few ZL and VK
    decodes, lots of the Midwest worked some, but too scattered for me.
    Also decoded FK8CP, who I have been chasing a card from a 2014 CW
    contact.

    "So Tuesday afternoon the 28th, was at the radio doing other shack
    items when I saw a FT8 decode from VK4HJ at 2306 UTC working a W9
    station. Proceeded to call him and worked at 2309 UTC with his -10
    signal. Worked VK4WTJ at 2315 UTC with him coming in at -15.

    "I then started to see decodes from FK8CP and FK8HA on and off for
    the next 15 minutes. I worked FK8HA in RG37 with his -18 digs at
    2344 UTC, I received a -20 report, took about 4 minutes once I got
    his attention.

    "During this whole time, I was calling FK8CP on and off between
    trying others when they popped up. VK4MA came in at 2351 UTC with
    his -09 digs. FK8CP was calling CQ WI all the time, but with FT8 you
    can still answer, so I kept thinking why is he calling for
    Wisconsin? Then figured that it was 'West Indies' (lol). He finally
    relented and I worked him on FT8 around 0009 UTC with -13 sig report
    from him.

    "The whole thing about New Caledonia is that I worked FK8CP on 6M in
    2014 on CW, but forgot back then to try for a card. Going through my
    logs for 6M DXCC showed the errors of my ways and I started to send
    cards back around 2020 since he was not LoTW. First one got returned
    around 6 months later, the post master said he did not know why,
    perhaps a typhoon. Then I tried again, but no answer for a long
    time. Got returned again, about a year later. I thought perhaps he
    was a SK, but his web page on QRZ did not leave any other contact
    info other than regular mail.

    "I forgot about it for a long time until I decoded him a few days
    ago. I checked his QRZ page and it said due to Covid-19, mail has
    been an issue for a very long time. So I got my card out and
    readdressed a new envelope, went to the post office this morning and
    mailed the card again. Wow, then I worked him that same day on FT8!
    9 years later - too funny!

    "73, Mike, KM0T.

    "PS - Definitely F2, Not strong, but in and out. No Es to the SW
    that I could tell. I worked VK and ZL on SSB 10 meters earlier,
    about 2200 UTC with 80W. That band was in good shape and quiet, had
    a 20 minute chat with a ZL with no QSB."

    I (K7RA) asked, "When there is a geomagnetic storm and we see
    openings on 6 meters, is it always due to auroral propagation?"

    The response from Mike King, KM0T, to K7RA:

    "Tad, in my experience on 6M, aurora gives your standard aurora
    propagation early on during the actual aurora. Northern latitude
    Midwest and NE - NW stations, with the typical auroral sound to SSB
    and CW.

    "Then later that same night we can get auroral-E skip, which may or
    may not sound like aurora. Very typical to work Alaska later at
    night after an aurora or auroral Es (at least from my location).

    "Then after a night of aurora, I have always been on the lookout the
    next day for F2/TEP/Chordal hop. When the flux is hovering around
    160 or so, and there is really no F2 at 50 MHz from the Midwest, an
    Aurora the previous day means that we got hit with a CME and the
    whole thing could still be charged up. Thus when we get full
    sunlight, I have seen many times F2/TEP propagation from the Midwest
    that I would not normally get. It lasts just that one day typically
    unless we get hit with more from the Sun.

    "From here in the Midwest it's East or West F2 to Caribbean, Africa,
    Indian Ocean, South America and Oceania. I don't believe I have seen
    it to EU the next day.  (If you're in Texas, SW - SE, even better
    for you - but they get that TEP much more than us...location,
    location, location.)

    "I have worked Scandinavia over the pole path a few times at
    nighttime during an aurora via aurora-Es or F2, could never really
    tell. So if E-skip it would be multi hop like a summertime day, but
    had an auroral quality to those contacts. In my mind I always called
    aurora enhanced F2.

    "For me, having a decent aurora with flux being around 160, I feel
    it's one of the best clues I get for looking for when 6M might do
    wild things the next day. Throw this coming summertime auroras in
    during the 6M E-skip season, those days after an aurora might be
    crazy!

    "73 Mike, KM0T"

    Here is a response from Jon Jones, N0JK:

    "Tad, Mike:

    "Agree with Mike's comments and good summary.

    "The aurora geomagnetic activity can increase F-layer MUF,
    especially when in the sunlight. Sometimes during an aurora F2 can
    appear. The more common scenario is the one Mike describes. Aurora
    during the night and F2 propagation the next day. That is what
    happened Monday February 27.  Tuesday was some left over F2, K still
    elevated.

    "Yesterday (March 1) the K index around 2. I copied Pipe, CE3SX for
    4 FT8 sequences on 50.313 MHz at 2111 UTC. No luck with a contact.
    Saw him send K0SIX (EN35) 'RR73.'

    "Yes and left over F2 the 2nd day after the aurora like yesterday,
    is normally only North South Propagation for me (Midwest) over the
    TEP zone, which I worked one CE station for fun, decoded a bunch of
    LUs, CX and CE, but had to leave for hockey practice."

    Jon Jones added at 2035 UTC on Thursday:

    "6 Meters popped open to Ecuador early in the afternoon March 2 on
    F2. I was at work, able to take a break around 1910 UTC. Set up from
    car - 1/4 wave whip and 10 watt MFJ-9406 radio. Many very loud
    decodes on FT8 from Ecuador. Called several stations. At 1925 UTC
    HC1DX called me on FT8 and we completed. Received a '-17 dB' report.
    N0LL/P was on from rare grid EN01 and worked several in Ecuador.
    Around 1900 UTC seems to be a good time frame for 6 Meter F2 to the
    south."

    The phone portion of the ARRL DX Contest is this weekend.

    http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[8]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.[9] When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for February 23 through March 1 2023 were 108, 130,
    129, 120, 192, 100, and 105, with a mean of 126.3. 10.7 cm flux was
    148.2, 164.1, 152, 159, 161.2, 160.9, and 162, with a mean of 158.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 6, 10, 26, 94, 28, and 8,
    with a mean of 27.7. Middle latitude A index was 16, 4, 9, 18, 60,
    19, and 6, with a mean of 18.9.

     


    [1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
    [2] https://bit.ly/3YsJREJ
    [3] https://bit.ly/3ZbC1As
    [4] https://bit.ly/3ymZrqR
    [5] https://bit.ly/3J1IIiJ
    [6] http://Spaceweather.com
    [7] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
    [9] k7ra@arrl.net
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 10 16:59:23 2023
    03/10/2023

    So far this month, two new sunspot groups appeared on March 1,
    another one on March 2, three more on March 3, one more on March 5,
    two more on March 6, and another on March 7, then two more on March
    9.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 126.3 to 143.6.

    Average daily solar flux changed from 158.2 to 181.6

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 27.7 to 14.6, and
    average middle latitude numbers went from 18.9 to 10.7, reflecting
    the quieter conditions following the upset the week before.

    The Penticton observatory, the source for solar flux data is way up
    at 49.5 degrees north longitude, in eastern British Columbia. For
    much of the year the Sun is low in the sky, so all winter they do
    their thrice daily readings at 1800, 2000 and 2200 UTC. But on March
    1 they shifted over to 1700, 2000 and 2300 UTC. The local noon (2000
    UTC) reading is the official solar flux for the day.

    You can see the data and the dates here:

    https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5- flux-en.php[1]

    The Vernal Equinox, when the northern and southern hemispheres are
    bathed in equal solar radiation is less than two weeks away.

    Predicted solar flux shows values peaking now, and again on March
    16-19.

    Flux values are expected at 178, 175, and 170 March 10-12, 172 on
    March 13-14, 170 on March 15-16, 180 on March 17-18, 175, 170 and
    165 on March 19-21, 160 on March 22-23, 155 on March 24-26, 150 on
    March 27-28, 145 on March 29-30, then 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on
    March 31 through April 4, 165 on April 5-8, 170 on April 9-11, 175
    on April 12, 180 on April 13-14, then 175, 170 and 165 on April
    15-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 8, 10 and 8 on March 10-13, 5 on
    March 14-15, 8 on March 16-17, then 5, 8 and 16 on March 18-20, 5 on
    March 21-23, then 12, 16, 26, 18 and 10 on March 24-28, then 8, 24
    and 16 on March 29-31, 20 on April 1-2, 16 and 8 on April 3-4, and 5
    on April 5-10, then 16, 8, 8, 5, and 8 on April 11-15.

    Dr. Tony Phillips of Spaceweather.com posted this animation captured
    by NASA's SDO showing sunspot AR3245 splitting:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/07mar23/splitup.gif[2]

    AR3245 is seen in the SE quadrant (lower left).

    OK1HH wrote:

    "The most interesting phenomenon in the last seven days was the X2
    class solar flare in the AR3234 sunspot group. Flare peaked on 3
    March at 1752 UTC, which caused the shortwave fade over the Americas
    at frequencies up to 30 MHz.

    "The G1-class geomagnetic disturbance on 4 and 5 March was triggered
    by CMEs from the M8.6-class flare of 28 February, despite the fact
    that the particle cloud was not heading directly toward Earth.

    "Activity in the growing sunspot groups AR3242 and AR3245, as well
    as the action of a setting, long, narrow, and closing coronal hole
    in the northwestern solar disk, were key to the subsequent
    evolution.

    "Today, March 9, a CME from the M5.8-class solar flare of March 6 at
    0229 UTC appears to be arriving at Earth. This is evidenced by this
    morning's (March 9) increase in solar wind particle concentration,
    which is a fairly good precursor for a subsequent increase in solar
    wind speed and enhancement in geomagnetic activity.

    "After the disturbance subsides, quieter conditions and a
    continuation of the current level of solar activity is expected."

    Gene, N9TF in Tennessee wrote, concerning openings on March 8-9:

    "I am usually the little pistol on the sidelines watching stations,
    either on my waterfall, pskreporter, or DX Maps working the 6M DX.

    "Well, the opening to VK4 yesterday late afternoon/evening, found
    this station in the thick of things...FINALLY!

    "I was tipped off by my brother N9PGG Greg in FM05 around 2200 UTC
    in a text message, that he was receiving FK8HA on 6m FT8, and a
    little later he saw stations in Alabama working VK4MA. I decoded
    FK8HA a couple times around 2230 UTC on 3/8/2023 but only -20 and
    just a couple sporadic decodes. I was watching DX maps and saw the
    path from VK to grids just to the south of me on fire.

    "I started CQing around 2230 UTC and saw that I was hitting XE2KK
    with a +4 on pskreporter, and two other XE. That looked like a good
    E opening to the correct path to VK4 if I had enough signal to ride
    the TEP. (Was it TEP?)

    "Finally, around 2342 UTC I decoded VK4MA at -13, and Paul was now
    being decoded consistently here and getting stronger. I started
    calling him at about 2345, and at 0007 UTC 3/9/2023 I got a reply
    R-19, sent my RR73 and Paul moved on to the next caller. I thought I
    was in the log...NOT!

    "I noticed two callers after me, AB4IQ, Paul had finished with 73. I immediately hit what I thought was TX4 (a text string in WSJT-x) to
    send RRR this time but hit TX2 for a few transmissions until I
    caught that mistake. Finally, 16 minutes of sending RRR, Paul
    responded with 73. Relief and then satisfaction set in. I'm in the
    log! Paul peaked at +1 for a while during the opening.

    "Antenna is just a 3 element (A50-3S) only up 18' above ground,
    behind our backyard shed 120' from the house/shack. I have 125' of
    DXE400MAX buried from the house to the back of the shed to a coax
    distribution box with grounding and surge arrestors. Then 40' of
    LM4-400 from the box to the antenna. The rig is a K3S, and I run 85
    watts output on FT8. So, of those 85 watts out at the rig, the
    antenna is seeing about 45-50 watts, at only 18' above ground, it's
    about 7' lower than the minimum optimal 25' above ground for 6m.

    "The 6m antenna set up is temporarily permanent at this time. It is
    kluged together with a 5' tripod anchored into the ground with 2,
    24" nails in each leg. The mast is 4 sections of 4' army surplus
    tent poles. I have an eve bracket at 10' to hold the whole thing
    secure, snug but not completely tight so I can hand turn the mast
    section above. Tent poles are just slid together, and the joints are
    duct taped. Like I said...kluged together! It has just recently
    survived 75mph straight wind gusts for 2 hours straight.

    "Anyway, just wanted to give a 'successful' report from EM66IJ. It
    was fun finally being able to participate in an opening!"

    A british tabloid explains astrophysics:

    https://bit.ly/3L8NHja[3]

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, releases videos to her Patreon subscribers
    12 hours before the general release.

    I got this early Friday at 0800 UTC, and since the ARRL will not
    release this more than 12 hours after the release to her
    subscribers, I am able to post it here:

    https://youtu.be/TJBsOuohrgE[4]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for March 2 through 8, 2023 were 103, 133, 122, 137,
    173, 191, and 146, with a mean of 143.6. 10.7 cm flux was 168.8,
    190.9, 181.6, 179.8, 188, 180.3, and 181.9, with a mean of 181.6.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 22, 15, 22, 15, 11, and 8,
    with a mean of 14.6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 16, 10, 17, 11,
    7, and 6, with a mean of 10.7.

     


    [1] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
    [2] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/07mar23/splitup.gif
    [3] https://bit.ly/3L8NHja
    [4] https://youtu.be/TJBsOuohrgE
    [5] k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 17 16:20:01 2023
    03/17/2023

    Six new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, two on March 9,
    another on March 10, one more on March 12, and another two on March
    14.

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this week.

    Average daily sunspot numbers softened from 143.6 to 118.7, and
    average daily solar flux from 181.6 to 153.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 135, 140, 138, and 135 on March 17-20, then
    132, 132 and 130 on March 21-23, 155 on March 24-26, 150 on March
    27-28, 145 on March 29-30, then 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March
    31 through April 4, 165 on April 5-8, 170 on April 9-11, then 175,
    180, 180, 175, 170 and 165 on April 12-17, 160 on April 18-19, 155
    on April 20-21, then 140, 150, 150 and 145 on April 22-25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 5, 12 and 8 on March 17-21,
    then 5, 5, 12, 16 and 26 on March 22-26, then 18, 10, 8, 24 and 22
    on March 27-31, then 16 on April 1-2, then 14, 12, 8 and 10 on April
    3-6, 8 on April 7-8, then 5, 8, 22 and 8 on April 9-12, 5 on April
    13-14, then 8 and 16 on April 15-16, 5 on April 17-19, then 12, 16,
    26 and 18 on April 20-23.

    Check out this propagation modeling site, sent from WB6MPH.

    https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/[1]

    Jon, N0JK wrote:

    "On March 15 there was a CME impact. The Kp peaked at 6. 6 meters
    opened to South America. I logged HK3O in FJ24 at 2042 UTC on FT8.
    Decoded many stations in Argentina and Ecuador."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - March 16, 2023 from OK1HH, F.K. Janda.

    "The level of solar activity is only slightly lower than during the
    last solar rotation, but this is especially true below the Sun's
    equator. There is higher activity on the far side of the Sun.

    "There was exceptional phenomenon recorded by coronagraphs on
    satellites on March 13. It was a 'halo CME' that apparently left the
    Sun at more than 3,000 km/s. Although the plasma cloud was not
    heading towards Earth, it still touched it. We can't pinpoint its
    source, but helioseismic maps show a pair of large active regions on
    the far side of the Sun. Both will emerge within days on the eastern
    limb of the solar disk.

    "The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was recorded from the morning
    of the 13th and ended on the 15th. In the next two days, the CME
    impact triggered a geomagnetic storm at G1 and G2 levels. In doing
    so, the attenuation in the polar cap - PCA - increased
    significantly.

    "Geomagnetic observatories recorded a high K index value of 6 on 15
    March at 2322 UTC. Note: this CME was ejected into space by the
    eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun almost 4 days earlier.

    "Shortwave propagation conditions were above average until 14 March
    and deteriorated significantly on 15 March. However, due to
    sufficiently high solar activity there was an improvement from 16
    March onwards."

    KM0T wrote:

    "Finally got VP8 on 6M - Wednesday March 15.

    "Been getting at least one and maybe two decodes from VP8NO and
    VP8LP almost every day over the last week, but not enough to work,
    seems always east coast, SE and Texas, some 6 land.

    "Today, waiting in the wings, decoded a VP8 around 1700 UTC, kept
    the beam that way and VP8LP came in at 1856 with -04 sigs.  I got a
    -20 report. I missed his initial CQ at 1854 which was +18!  He
    dropped down to -15 right after I worked him and then was gone. He
    was in from 1854 to 1858, 4-minute window. Then one more single
    decode him calling CQ at 1900 at -10, then gone.

    "Anyway, it was short lived, then a few minutes later at 1909 UTC
    VP8NO came in with +4 to -10 sigs till about 1918 UTC. I apparently
    got his attention as Greg, W0LGQ in Council Bluffs EN21, south of me
    told me on the phone that VP8NO was calling me back with a -12
    report for a number of sequences, but I was getting no decodes by
    then from him.

    "Greg indicated as we compared notes, that WSJT FT8 signal reports
    from VP8NO were consistently +10 dB better at EN21 then EN13 - 167
    miles as the crow flies.  We both run 6 over 6 so it's somewhat a
    good comparison.

    "Definitely short lived F2.  From here, seems that TEP always ends
    up dropping off mid country LU or CE, CX.  Never that far south to
    VP8.

    "Well, now that I look at the DX Maps snapshot, it appears there may
    have been an Es to TEP link on my side."

    Tony, WA4JQS sent a message about working some New Zealand stations on 29.6 MHz FM.

    "Rich, N8UX and I have talked about this ever since FT8 came out. We
    are seeing a lot of skewed path QSOs over the past few years. Today
    the SFI was 157. I am thinking we have some prop paths or types we
    did not know about until FT8. Of course, I could be wrong, but I
    have seen some really strange paths the past few years with FT8. I
    listened for 10 mins after I signed with the ZL2, and I was the only
    one to hear and work him other than the VK3 and they were having
    trouble getting the calls correct. While I had a pipeline, into the
    South Island but then I find it strange that I heard no other VK or
    ZL."

    WB6MPH sent this very interesting link, providing an animated visual
    rendering of predicted propagation:

    https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/[2]

    He also is interested in possible effects of planetary positions on
    the Sun. Years ago I heard about J.H. Nelson of RCA and his work on
    this subject, but thought that this article showed his conclusions
    were affected by statistical artifacts, as outlined here:

    https://bit.ly/42mbEtg[3]

    Greg Glenn sent this:

    "Check out Frank Stefani's work.  He is one of many who I read up
    on. Stefani was a peer reviewer on my paper.

    "https://www.hzdr.de/db/Cms?pOid=63352&pNid=0&pLang=en[4]

    "Recent Stefani technical paper:

    "https://bit.ly/3ZUXm18[5]

    "Basically, Stefani suggests that even a very small gravitational
    force exerted by the planets on the Sun can have an effect through
    billions of years of resonance.

    "I personally think that both gravitational, as well as
    electromagnetic forces are at play.  It's a solar 'system' and there
    are multiple forces transferred between the orbiting planets and the
    Sun.

    "I write, along with Astronomer Gerald Pease, about the
    gravitational force exerted by transfer of angular momentum here:

    "https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03553[6]

    "I then wrote about the possible Electromagnetic Connections here:

    "https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.10574[7]

    "A prediction I made that came about:

    "https://bit.ly/42kvVzp[8]

    "Thanks, Greg!"

    Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/gjrvLY-RU5Q
    [9]
    Solar explosions:

    https://bit.ly/3liDO85[10]

    From news in India:

    https://bit.ly/3JMJHnu[11]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12]. When reporting observations, don't forget to
    tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[17] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

    Sunspot numbers for March 9 through 15, 2023 were 155, 135, 126,
    135, 87, 97, and 96, with a mean of 118.7. 10.7 cm flux was 178.8,
    171.2, 157.4, 150, 143.3, 138.5, and 135.7, with a mean of 153.6.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 11, 7, 8, 3, 17, and 29, with
    a mean of 13.1. Middle latitude A index was 14, 10, 5, 6, 2, 12, and
    19, with a mean of 9.9.

     


    [1] https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/
    [2] https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/
    [3] https://bit.ly/42mbEtg
    [4] https://www.hzdr.de/db/Cms?pOid=63352&amp;pNid=0&amp;pLang=en
    [5] https://bit.ly/3ZUXm18
    [6] https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03553
    [7] https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.10574
    [8] https://bit.ly/42kvVzp
    [9] https://youtu.be/gjrvLY-RU5Q
    [10] https://bit.ly/3liDO85
    [11] https://bit.ly/3JMJHnu
    [12] k7ra@arrl.net
    [13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [17] http://k9la.us/
    [18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 24 16:36:40 2023
    03/24/2023

    Sunspot numbers were lower again this week, with the average
    declining from 143.6 two weeks ago to 118.7 last week and now 68
    this week. Average daily solar flux sank 8 points from 153.6 last
    week to 145.6.

    Six new sunspot groups emerged over the week, one on March 17,
    another March 18, three more on March 19, one more on March 21 and
    another on March 22.

    Predicted solar flux is 150, 145 and 145 on March 24-26, 150 on
    March 27-28, 145 and 150 on March 29-30, 138 on March 31 through
    April 1, then 136, 136 and 134 on April 2-4, 132 on April 5-7, 130
    on April 8-9, then 132, 135, 138, and 140 on April 10-13, 142 on
    April 14-15, 143 on April 16, 140 on April 17-18, 142 on April
    19-21, and 144 on April 22, 146 on April 23-24, 142 and 140 on April
    25-26, 138 on April 27-28, and 136 on April 29-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 35, 30, 20, 15 and 10 on March 24-28,
    8 on March 29-30, then 18, 12, 12, 10 and 8 on March 31 through
    April 5, 5 on April 6-9, then 15, 12, 8 and 5 on April 10-13, 8 on
    April 14-15, then 12, 10, 5 and 5 on April 16-19, then geomagnetic
    unrest returns with 10, 36, 20, 10, 8 and 5 April 20-25, then 20,
    18, 12, 12 and 10 on April 26-30.

    On Thursday, Spaceweather.com reported, "The forecast did not call
    for this. During the early hours of March 23rd, a crack opened in
    Earth's magnetic field, and stayed open for more than 8 hours. Solar
    wind poured through the gap to fuel a strong G3-class geomagnetic
    storm."

    I watch this site frequently looking for disturbances when
    propagation seems odd:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[1]

    On Thursday it showed estimated planetary K index at 7, then
    dipping, and at 2100 UTC above 7. I noticed some very odd
    propagation. At 1900 UTC I called CQ on 10 meter FT8, and
    pskreporter.info showed I was only being heard in a small area in
    east Texas. Stations were concentrated between 1739 and 1892 miles
    in an area between Houston, San Antonio, Killeen and Nacogdoches.
    That was it! Heard nowhere else. I was running low power, using a
    simple end-fed one wavelength wire that is mostly indoors.

    Over the next half hour coverage extended east to Louisiana, then
    Alabama, then Georgia and South Caroline.

    At 1950 UTC I went to 15 meters, and noticed a similar oddity, this
    time with stations in an arc between 1510-2680 miles, bordered by
    N1AC in Florida, NT5EE in Texas, KI5WKB in Oklahoma and a station in
    North Carolina.

    A check again at 0050 UTC last night on 15 meter FT8 and
    pskreporter.info[2] showed for over and hour the only stations I was
    receiving were two Cubans, and the only stations hearing me were in
    an arc from Arizona to Alabama.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - March 23, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "If we were to assess solar activity in the last seven days by the
    number and size of sunspots, or by the number of energetic flares,
    it would not seem significant. Yet it was, but we only know that
    because of satellite observations. For example, NASA's SDO
    observatory recorded a dark plasma eruption at 0630 UTC on 17 March.

    "The speed of the solar wind began to increase on 21 March. Far more
    noticeable was a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere of
    the Sun near the central meridian. The assumption of a strong solar
    plasma flow from its borders pointed to a probable disturbance on
    March 24.

    "But the flow was faster. We saw a really strong geomagnetic storm a
    day earlier, on March 23. During the morning hours, the
    concentration of free particles around the Earth began to rise
    rapidly, as a reliable precursor of the coming storm. The
    geomagnetic disturbance reached a planetary K index of 7 in the
    afternoon, so its intensity was rated G3.

    "Earth's ionosphere responded to the storm with an increase in MUF
    during 23 March. Since the disturbance should continue, albeit with
    less intensity, we expect initially below-average shortwave
    propagation conditions and then a slow return to average."

    Another great video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/bG0zCbXukm4[3]

    This weekend is the CQ World-Wide SSB WPX Contest. See
    https://cqwpx.com[4] for info and rules. This is a big, fun contest in
    which callsign prefixes are the multiplier.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for March 16 through 22, 2023 were 84, 58, 35, 73,
    75, 70, and 81, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 135.4, 134.2,
    140.3, 142.7, 156.1, 151.6, and 158.9, with a mean of 145.6.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 8, 10, 13, 8, and 17, with
    a mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 6, 8, 10, 8, and
    14, with a mean of 8.4.

     


    [1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
    [2] http://pskreporter.info
    [3] https://youtu.be/bG0zCbXukm4
    [4] https://cqwpx.com
    [5] k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 31 14:11:44 2023
    03/31/2023

    Solar activity increased this week. Average daily sunspot number
    rose from 68 to 112.6, and average daily solar flux changed from
    145.6 to 156.1.

    A new sunspot group emerged on March 24, two more on March 26 and
    27, and three on March 29.

    Due to solar wind and a geomagnetic disturbance at the beginning of
    the reporting week, average daily planetary A index increased from
    10.6 to 23.3, while average middle latitude A index went from 8.4 to
    13.7. Many reports of aurora came in this week, some down to lower
    latitudes in North America.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on March 31, 130 on April 1-6, 132 on
    April 7-8, then 130, 132, 135 and 135 on April 9-12, then 140, 145
    and 148 on April 13-15, then 150, 150, 155, 155 and 158 on April
    16-20, 160 on April 21-23, then 155, 145 and 145 on April 24-26, and
    135 on April 27 through May 1, then 132 on May 2-5, then 130, 132,
    135 and 135 on May 6-9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 16, 12, 10 and 8 on March 31
    through April 4, then 5 on April 5-9, then 15, 12, 8 and 5 on April
    10-13, 8 on April 14-15, then 12, 20, 15 and 5 on April 16-19, then
    20, 15 and 10 on April 20-22, 8 on April 23-24, 5 on April 25-26,
    then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 27-30, and 5 on May 1-6, then 15, 12
    and 8 on May 7-9.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - March 30, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "The strong geomagnetic storm on 23-24 March was not expected.
    Moreover, it was classified as a G4, making it the most intense in
    almost 6 years. The source of the solar wind was not identified with
    certainty, but a large coronal hole in the south, near the central
    meridian, could not be missed.

    "As a consequence of the disturbance, the ionosphere first
    experienced a rise in the critical frequencies of the F2 layer on 23
    March, followed by a significant drop on 24-25 March. Their normal
    values started to be registered again only after 26 March.

    "Energetic flares are a reliable indicator of the increase in solar
    activity. On March 29, the seventh X-class flare of the year was
    registered. Yet a total of seven were registered in 2022 and only
    two in 2021.

    "Most of the sunspots are now on the western half of the solar disk.
    As they gradually set, total solar activity will first decrease over
    the next week before rising again."

    Here are articles about solar activity as an existential threat:

    https://bit.ly/3M28RQv[1]

    https://bit.ly/42W7xo4[2]

    https://bit.ly/40Qf6Lc[3]

    Nice sunspot video, before the aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3K2alHX[4]

    AA7FV wrote on March 25:

    "There was a 6-meter opening from Arizona to VK on March 24.  I
    received VK7HH in Tasmania at 2028 UTC on WSPR; he was using just
    0.2 watts (200 mW)."

    VK7HH responded:

    "Yes, that WSPR spot was from my remote station running 200 mW from
    a Zacktek WSPR TX into a 1/2 wave vertical antenna. HASL 931m."

    AA7FV wrote:

    "For reference, my 50 MHz antenna is a Cushcraft 1/2-wave vertical,
    the Ringo AR6, with its base at about 10 feet above ground. The
    location here is 870m asl but I'm in the valley, just outside
    Tucson. The receiver is an ancient Icom PCR1000, but with a preamp.
    I monitor 6m 24/7, but rarely hear any signals at all, and when I do
    hear something it's usually from someone else in Arizona."

    On March 25, Jon, N0JK wrote:

    "Worked VP8NO in GD18 today on 6 Meter FT8 at 1905 UTC.  de N0JK
    EM28 in Kansas."

    Jon was using a portable 2 element Yagi and running 50 watts.

    Here is an article about a "Hole" in the Sun:

    https://www.space.com/solar-flare-coronal-hole-space-weather[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

    Sunspot numbers for March 23 through 29, 2023 were 73, 108, 105,
    125, 128, 114, and 135, with a mean of 112.6. 10.7 cm flux was 151,
    157.5, 160.3, 159.4, 158.2, 158.7, and 147.8, with a mean of 156.1.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 60, 66, 15, 8, 3, 5, and 6, with
    a mean of 23.3. Middle latitude A index was 28, 40, 12, 6, 2, 4, and
    4, with a mean of 13.7.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3M28RQv
    [2] https://bit.ly/42W7xo4
    [3] https://bit.ly/40Qf6Lc
    [4] https://bit.ly/3K2alHX
    [5] https://www.space.com/solar-flare-coronal-hole-space-weather
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 7 23:38:34 2023
    04/07/2023

     Average solar flux and sunspot numbers were way down this week. Sunspot numbers were down by half, from 112.6 last week to 53.4.  Average daily solar flux declined from 156.1 to 132.5. 

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower too.  Average daily planetary A index from 23.3 last week to 15 in this bulletin, and average daily middle latitude A index from 13.7 to 11.7.

    The April 1 middle latitude A index of 11 is my guess.  The middle latitude A index for April 1 was not available.

    Predicted solar flux is 140 on April 7 and 8, 135 on April 9 to 11, 140, 145 and 130 on on April 12 to 14, 130 on April 14, 135 on April 15 to 17, 140 on April 18 to 20, 135 on April 21 to 23, then 130, 125 and 120 on April 24 to 26, 115 on April 27 to 29, 125 on April 30, 120 on May 1 and 2, 115 on May 3 and 4, then 110 on May 5 to 7, and 115, 120, 125 and 130 on May 8 to 11, then 135 on May 12 to 14, and 140 on May 15 to 17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 7 to 10, then 8, 8 and 5 on April 11 to 13, 8 on April 14 and 15, then 12, 10 and 15 on April 16 to 18, then 5, 20, 15 and 10 on April 19 to 22, 5 on April 23 to 25, then 15 and 18 on April 26 and 27, 15 on April 28 and 29, 8 on April 30, 10 on May 1 and 2, 8 on May 3, then 5 on May 4 to 6, then 12, 10, 8 and 5 on May 7 to 10, 8 on May 11 and 12, then 10, 12, 15, 5 and 20 on May 13 to 17.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere -- April 6, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "On March 29, another solar flare of category X1.2 was observed.  It came from the AR3256 sunspot group near the southwestern limb of the Sun.

    This year, in just three months, we've already seen seven X-class flares, the same as all of last year.  There are still about two years to go before the cycle peak.

    On the morning of March 31, a solar wind stream hit Earth, triggering a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm.  A relatively quiet weekend followed.

    Then new sunspot group AR3270 emerged in the southern part of the solar disk.  It grew rapidly, its two dark cores, larger than Earth, indicating an unstable magnetic field.  If they merge an eruption would likely follow.  It would probably be a geoeffective eruption because the sunspot was directly opposite the Earth.

    After the AR3270 sunspot group dips behind the southwestern limb of the solar disk this weekend, there should be a temporary drop in overall solar activity, accompanied by a string of geomagnetically quieter days.

    As the irregular occurrence of higher geomagnetic activity results in irregular changes in shortwave propagation conditions, the subsequent evolution should be more regular and predictable."

    This video from Tamitha Skov came out right after last week's bulletin:

    https://youtu.be/F8ERhLiOK88[1]

    More sun fun:  

    https://youtu.be/VWhhSWjDJtw[2]  

    https://bit.ly/41aolq2[3]  

    Don't worry:  

    https://bit.ly/3zCtg74[4]

    On April 5 from 1723 to 1746 UTC, Tom, WA1LBK in Fall River, Massachusetts copied HC1MD/2 in Ecuador on 6 meter FT8.  Check HC1MD on QRZ.com for some beautiful photos by Rick, NE8Z.

    https://bit.ly/3zBm5wa[5]  

    This weekend is the CW portion of the Japan International DX Contest.

    See http://jidx.org/[6]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] .  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12]  

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 30 through April 5, 2023 were 99, 61, 23, 54, 56, 44, and 37, with a mean of 53.4.  10.7 cm flux was 140.3, 129.3, 125.3, 126.9, 133.6, 135.7, and 136.6, with a mean of 132.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 21, 13, 15, 15, 13, and 11, with a mean of 15.  Middle latitude A index was 11, 17, 11, 13, 11, 10, and 9, with a mean of 11.7.


    [1] https://youtu.be/F8ERhLiOK88
    [2] https://youtu.be/VWhhSWjDJtw
    [3] https://bit.ly/41aolq2
    [4] https://bit.ly/3zCtg74
    [5] https://bit.ly/3zBm5wa
    [6] http://jidx.org/
    [7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 14 16:49:48 2023
    04/14/2023

    Solar activity was up for this reporting week, April 6-12.

    Seven new sunspot groups appeared, one on April 6, another on April
    9, two more on April 10, another on April 11, and two more on April
    12. Then on Thursday, April 13, three new sunspot groups emerged.
    The sunspot number rose to 154, the highest value in the past month.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 53.4 to 70.6, and average
    daily solar flux increased from 132.5 to 141.

    On Thursday, the noon solar flux reading was 159.5 and was well
    above the average for the previous seven days, perhaps indicating an
    upward trend.

    Geomagnetic conditions were calm, with average daily planetary A
    index dropping from 15 to 7.6, and the middle latitude average from
    11.7 to 6.4.
     
    Predicted solar flux was 155 and 160 on April 13-14, and 165 on
    April 15-16.

    The Thursday prediction was well above that.

    Predicted solar flux is 168 on April 14-16, 165 and 160 on April
    17-18, 155 on April 19-22, 158 on April 23, 155 on April 24-25, then
    152, 148, 145 and 142 on April 26-29, 140 on April 30 and May 1, 142
    and 140 on May 2-3, 135 on May 4-5, then 130, 140, 145, 150, 152,
    155 and 158 on May 6-12, then 160 on May 13-15, and 150 and 152 on
    May 16-17, 155 on May 18-19, then 158, 155 and 155 on May 20-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 10 and 8 on April 14-17, 5 on
    April 18-20, then 8 and 10 on April 21-22, 5 on April 23-25, then 15
    and 18 on April 26-27, 15 on April 28-30, then 12 and 10 on May 1-2,
    8 on May 3-4, 5 on May 5-6, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 7-9, and 5 on
    May 10-13, then 10, 15 and 5 on May 14-16, 20, 15 and 10 on May
    17-19, and 5 on May 20-23.

    Spaceweather.com[1] released this news on Wednesday:

    "Evidence is mounting that Solar Cycle 25 might peak much earlier
    than expected. New research by a leading group of solar physicists
    predicts maximum sunspot activity in late 2023 or early 2024 with a
    peak that could be twice as strong as the previous solar cycle."

    Look in the Spaceweather archive for April 12-13 to read more.  It
    is all explained in this scientific paper:

    https://bit.ly/41gZnW4[2]

    I noticed some very odd 10 meter propagation at 2000 UTC on April
    11. Running FT8 and a one wavelength end fed wire at my home in
    Seattle, the only stations that heard me according to
    pskreporter.info were one in New Zealand, another in Hawaii, and in
    North America, only 5 stations (NK5B, AD4ES, K4RMM, KB4FB and AA4CB)
    in Florida, all within a 200 mile strip from 2,512 to 2,712 miles
    from me. Checking again at 2015 UTC, it was still the same. It
    looked quite dramatic on the pskreporter.info map.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - April 13, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Relatively frequent C-class solar flares, sporadic M-class flares
    in one or two sunspot groups, and the appearance of two or three
    relatively small coronal holes - that's how the Sun looked between
    April 6 and 13.

    "The solar wind speed dropped to 340 km/s by April 9, rose
    significantly to 550 km/s on April 10, and then slowly dropped
    again. The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled on April 10, then
    mostly calm on the other days.

    "MUF values were slightly higher on 10 April. This was followed by
    11 April with irregular daily MUF and irregular occurrences of
    attenuation. Since 12 April onward there was a transition to a
    regular daily course of ionospheric parameters.

    "Now we can expect higher solar activity in the southern hemisphere.
    The rise should continue in the coming days at first. A slight
    decrease will follow after the weekend.

    "A slight increase in geomagnetic activity with consequent
    fluctuations in shortwave propagation conditions can be expected
    rather since the middle of next week."

    Here is a video about the Termination Event:

    https://youtu.be/wcJdNBow_5s[3]

    A story on NASA using AI to predict geomagnetic storms:

    https://bit.ly/3mws16y[4]

    Here is a story about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/3UCz8ar[5]

    Mike Mason, WB4MM in Daytona Beach, Florida wrote:

    "On April 9 2023 FT8 mode 12 meters beginning at 2254 UTC and ending
    at 2328 UTC I worked 12 JA stations plus 2 South Korean stations in
    a row. I was calling CQ AS WB4MM EL99.

    "My station has 100 watts to an attic 15M dipole. I believe the SFI
    at the time was 135. Not sure of the type of prop. This occurred
    within an hour of sunset at my QTH."

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

    Sunspot numbers for April 6 through 12, 2023 were 33, 38, 49, 52,
    92, 103, and 127, with a mean of 70.6. 10.7 cm flux was 137.1,
    136.3, 135.9, 140.3, 139.8, 143.4, and 154, with a mean of 141.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 6, 6, 14, 6, and 4, with a
    mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 5, 11, 6, and 4,
    with a mean of 6.4.
     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/41gZnW4
    [3] https://youtu.be/wcJdNBow_5s
    [4] https://bit.ly/3mws16y
    [5] https://bit.ly/3UCz8ar
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 21 18:04:00 2023
    04/21/2023

    Again this week sunspot numbers and solar flux were higher than the
    week before.

    Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled, from 70.6 to 146.9,
    and average daily solar flux increased from 141 to 164.5. Both
    figures represent a substantial increase in solar activity.

    Planetary A index averages went from 7.6 to 8.1, while middle
    latitude A index advanced from 6.4 to 7.3.

    Three new sunspot groups emerged on April 13, one more on April 16,
    and another on April 17.

    Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks is 145, 140 and 135 on
    April 21-23, 130 on April 24-25, 125 on April 26-27, 160 on April
    28-29, 165 on April 30, 172 on May 1-3, 170 on May 4, 172 on May
    5-7, 178 on May 8, 182 on May 9-12, then 175, 178 and 170 on May
    13-15, 168 on May 16-17, 175 on May 18, then 172 on May 19-21, then
    168 and 162 on May 22-23, 160 on May 24-26, 165 on May 27, and 172
    on May 28-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 16, 12 and 8 on April 21-24, 5 on
    April 25-27, 15 on April 28-30, then 12 and 10 on May 1-2, 8 on May
    3-4, 5 on May 5-6, 12 on May 7, 5 on May 8-10, then 8 on May 11-12,
    5 on May 13-18, then 10, 8, 5 and 5 on May 19-22, 15 and 18 on May
    23-24, 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - April 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "Of the fifteen sunspot groups observed over the past week, AR3272
    and AR3282 were the source of most of the flares. Both had a
    beta-gamma magnitude configuration. 61 C-class flares and 4 M-class
    flares were observed.

    "The partial halo CMEs on 15 and 16 April were the source of
    particles that reached Earth on 18 April, when the solar wind speed
    increased abruptly at 1308 UTC and a geomagnetic disturbance
    developed.

    "A positive phase of the ionospheric disturbance was recorded on the
    afternoon of 18 April, followed by a negative phase on 19 April.
    This was followed on 20 April with a significant increase in f0F2
    and improved shortwave propagation conditions before noon UTC.

    "The outlook looks promising for the first half of May, when solar
    activity should increase further."

    Dan Handa, W7WA commented on the news last week about the current
    solar cycle reaching a peak earlier than predicted, perhaps by the
    end of this year.

    I told him I hoped it would not peak early, because I wanted to see
    several more years of increasing activity.

    Dan sent a very detailed graph of Solar Cycle 19 from 1954 to 1966,
    and wrote: "I have read, and more than once, a slow rise means a low
    sunspot max. The previous Solar Cycle 24 took five years to reach a
    relatively low maximum. A rapid increase can mean a high sunspot
    maximum. The granddaddy of our lifetime, Solar Cycle 19 peaked in
    three years!"

    I did not know this.

    In a subsequent message, Dan further commented:

    "There was a lot of short term variation in the Solar Cycle 19
    sunspot number, just like we're seeing now. From the graph the
    timing of the Solar Cycle 19 peak can be defined three different
    ways: the daily peak, the smoothed monthly peak or the smoothed
    yearly peak, take your pick."

    Another Solar Cycle 19? Many hams have dreamed of this for the past
    six decades.

    Dale, WB6MMQ reported that the solar images in the ARRL Letter with
    a preview of our Friday bulletin show a blank Sun. I wasn't sure
    what he was talking about, but now I realize this must be a stock
    image (not from me!) used in the Letter.

    I sent Dale links to some recent images from Spaceweather.com[1]:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/20apr23/hmi1898.gif[2]

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/19apr23/hmi1898.gif[3]

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/18apr23/hmi1898.gif[4]

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/17apr23/hmi1898.gif[5]

    I hope this clears up the confusion.

    An odd correlation between an ancient epidemic and solar activity:

    https://bit.ly/3Lsqfxf[6]

    A story about a possible early Solar peak:

    https://www.space.com/sun-solar-maximum-may-arrive-early[7]

    A story about possible M-class solar flares:

    https://bit.ly/3KVc1n1[8]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for April 13 through 19, 2023 were 154, 153, 151,
    155, 162, 140, and 113, with a mean of 146.9. 10.7 cm flux was
    159.5, 171.3, 175.8, 177.8, 166.6, 153.2, and 147, with a mean of
    164.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 9, 4, 6, 13, and 12,
    with a mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 10, 8, 4, 6, 9,
    and 9, with a mean of 7.3.
     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/20apr23/hmi1898.gif
    [3] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/19apr23/hmi1898.gif
    [4] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/18apr23/hmi1898.gif
    [5] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/17apr23/hmi1898.gif
    [6] https://bit.ly/3Lsqfxf
    [7] https://www.space.com/sun-solar-maximum-may-arrive-early
    [8] https://bit.ly/3KVc1n1
    [9] k7ra@arrl.net
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 28 16:18:02 2023
    04/28/2023

    At 0134 UTC on April 27, The Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "An equatorial coronal hole is currently elevating solar wind
    speeds. Combined with the anticipated impact from a recent CME on
    April 27, geomagnetic activity is expected to be at G0-G1 levels
    over April 27-28, with a slight chance of an isolated period of G2."

    Solar and geomagnetic indicators moved in opposite directions this
    week. Average daily sunspot numbers over April 20-26 made a dramatic
    drop from 146.9 to 91.4, and average daily solar flux from 164.5 to
    139.4.

    Average daily planetary A index more than tripled from 8.1 to 26.9,
    while average middle latitude A index more than doubled from 7.3 to
    15.6.

    Solar wind and explosions caused all this grief.

    Spaceweather.com[1] reported that on April 21, a large magnetic
    filament on the Sun exploded, hurling debris toward Earth.

    Later they reported that on April 23 at 1737 UTC a CME hit Earth,
    sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm. Aurora was visible as
    far south as southern New Mexico and Texas.

    The planetary K index went as high as 8 over April 23-24.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 135 on April 28-30, 140
    on May 1-2, 135 on May 3-4, 140 on May 5-6, then  145, 150, 155, 160
    and 165 on May 7-11, 170 on May 12-13, then 165, 160, 155, 150, 145
    and 140 on May 14-19, 135 on May 20-21, 130 and 125 on May 22-23,
    120 on May 24-25, then 125, 130 and 135 on May 26-28, 140 on May 29
    through June 2, then 145, 150, 155, 160, and 165 on June 3-7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 25, 16 and 12 on April 28-30, 8 on
    May 1-5, 12 and 10 on May 6-7, 8 on May 8-9, then 5, 5 and 12 on May
    10-12, 5 on May 13-15, 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-22, then 15 and
    18 on May 23-34, and 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29, 8
    on May 30-31, then 5, 5 and 12 on June 1-3, and 5 on June 4-6.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - April 27, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The most important event of the last seven days was the solar flare
    on 21 April with a maximum at 1812 UTC (1744 - 1857 UT). It was a
    long duration event (LDE), accompanied by the ejection of a cloud of
    coronal plasma into space, at a location on the Sun where there is a
    high probability of the cloud hitting the Earth. It is therefore not
    surprising that all forecast centres agreed in predicting the
    impending disturbance.

    "The speed of the solar wind jumped up on 23 April at 1703 UTC,
    after which a geomagnetic disturbance began to develop. It was much
    stronger than expected (max K=8 and G4 instead of the expected K=6
    and G1-2). Auroras were observed with two maxima - in Europe on 23
    April mainly between 1900-2100 UTC and in North America on 24 April
    between 0300-0400 UTC.

    "Thereafter, propagation conditions deteriorated significantly,
    especially on 24-25 April, with one interesting variation of the
    evolution: the calming of the geomagnetic field on the morning of 25
    April UTC was followed by a further development of the disturbance
    with an albeit shorter but significant improvement. The return of
    the critical frequencies of the F2 layer and the improvement of
    shortwave propagation conditions toward the mean continued only
    slowly in the following days, as intervals of increased geomagnetic
    activity occurred daily. The lowest f0F2 were observed on the night
    of 23-24 April. The following night was slightly better."

    Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

    "I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
    The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
    in a 2 hour period.

    "On Monday, the 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
    had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
    that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
    then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
    influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
    much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
    FANTASTIC, and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
    understand.

    "Here's my question.  Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
    determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
    20m and 40m)?

    "You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
    egg.'"

    I replied:

    "I recommend pskreporter.info[2], and look on the map screen for FT8
    signals from your grid square and where they are heard. You don't
    have to use FT8 to use this.

    "You can also check for the 'country of callsign' option with your
    own or any callsign.  When I do this for 10 meters, this week it has
    been showing no propagation from my area, but lots of 10 meter
    propagation in the south and across the east coast.

    "I use FT8 a lot to study propagation."

    Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico wrote:

    "Been doing a lot of FT8 these months. More DXpeditions are
    including its operation.  Just last week on April 16th at 1939 UTC
    worked VU7W and in WARD April 18th T30UN at 0721 on 40m and 0735 on 30m, the two ATNOs."

    (I think WARD refers to World Amateur Radio Day, and of course ATNO
    refers to All Time New One, something I did not know until a few
    years ago. -K7RA)

    "But on the 20th, at 0800 UTC, saw stations on 10 meters, normally
    you do not hear them on any mode at that time. Then I began to call
    them and a few from Europe contacted me. Then at about 0845 UTC,
    'poof' they disappeared.

    "These are the things that make me say that it is because of the
    'crazy prop' (la propa loca)."

    Tomas Hood, NW7US has a monthly propagation column in CQ Magazine,
    which is a great resource. In the March issue he writes about the
    promising progress of Solar Cycle 25.

    Another great resource is Chapter 19, the "Propagation of Radio
    Signals" in the 2023 100th edition of the ARRL Handbook. It contains
    the most comprehensive treatment of radio propagation I have ever
    seen and goes on for 38 pages.

    Aurora observed in China:

    https://bit.ly/41KyY3w[3]

    Aurora in Iowa:

    https://bit.ly/3Nlvy2S[4]

    An article explaining aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3n7ROm2[5]

    A Science & Tech article about Sun science:

    https://bit.ly/429Sqq9

    From 2017, a NASA sunspot video:

    https://www.exploratorium.edu/video/nasa-life-sunspot[6]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to
    tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-Earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

    Sunspot numbers for April 20 through 26, 2023 were 97, 114, 87, 86,
    88, 87, and 81, with a mean of 91.4. 10.7 cm flux was 147, 151.2,
    141.2, 135.2, 133.9, 130.7, and 136.5, with a mean of 139.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 9, 7, 66, 76, 10, and 15, with
    a mean of 26.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 6, 32, 39, 7, and
    12, with a mean of 15.6.
     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] http://pskreporter.info
    [3] https://bit.ly/41KyY3w
    [4] https://bit.ly/3Nlvy2S
    [5] https://bit.ly/3n7ROm2
    [6] https://www.exploratorium.edu/video/nasa-life-sunspot
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-Earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 12 23:53:54 2023
    05/12/2023

    We saw a modest increase in solar activity in this reporting week, May 4-10.

    Average daily sunspot numbers nudged up from 114 to 119.3, and average daily solar flux from 151.5 to 167.1  

    Average daily planetary A index changed from 13.6 to 15.1, and average middle latitude A index remained the same, 11.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 160 on May 12-13, then 155, 150 and 150 on May 14-16, 145 on May 17-18, 155 on May 19-21, 150 on May 22, 145 on May 23-25, then 140 and 145 on May 26-27, 155 on May 29-30, 160 on May 31 through June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165, 160, 150, 145 and 150 on June 8-12, and 155 on June 13-17.  

    Predicted planetary A index is 30, 12 and 8 on May 12-14, 5 on May 15-22, then 12 and 20 on May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 10 on May 27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May 30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and 12 on June 2-5, 8 on June 6-8, and 5 on June 9- 18, then 12 and 20 on June 19-20.

    Stormy space weather:  

    https://www.space.com/sun-reverse-sunspot-auroras-supercharge[1] .

    BBC on viewing aurora:  

    https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/northern-lights-may-2023-backward-sunspot/[2]

    More:  

    https://bit.ly/44Rruxk[3]  

    Jon, N0JK wrote on May 9:  

    "Good 6 Meter Es, TEP May 7 FT8 from northeast Kansas.  

    I worked CX2AQ and LU5FF from home with an attic dipole on FT8. This around 2115 UTC. Not strong, but solid contacts. I then set up portable.

    Worked CE2SV and CE3SX. CE3SX called me, also FT8. Had difficulty keeping yagi up due to gusty winds. On ON4KST Dale, CE2SV noted:  

    00:11:46 N0JK Jon, A struggle on my side, wind blew antenna down several times and broke director. Duct tape to the rescue.  

    00:11:07 N0JK Jon (CE2SV) Dale - Thank you for the contact.  

    22:42:46 CE2SV Dale (N0JK) Finally Jon ... TU   

    Gary, N0KQY observes there is a 'consistent time frame' for Es -- TEP to South America from the Midwest. Best seems to be 2000-0000 UTC." Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere May 12-18, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.  

    "The more vivid and complex solar activity is, the less predictable it is. The same is valid for its effects in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere.  

    This was particularly true of the solar flares of May 4 and 5, and also of the G2 class geomagnetic storm with auroras. The CMEs overlapping each other were difficult to separate.  

    Another CME that struck the Earth on May 7 (1544 UTC) was expected but, contrary to predictions, did not cause a significant storm. Another Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) hit the Earth on May 9 at 2310 UTC.  Shortly before, AR3296 (with reversed magnetic polarity and thus violating Hale's law) released a double solar flare.  

    The consequence was the Dellinger effect (a shortwave fade) up to 25 MHz from 1900-2100 UTC. Another CME followed with a velocity of over 1,000 km/s (2.24 million mph). Shock waves at its leading edge accelerated protons to nearly the speed of light, making them 'relativistic particles', for which time passes more slowly. They can reach the Earth and affect the ionosphere.  

    These lines are written on the afternoon of 11 May UTC, when the particles from the eruption of 9 May with a maximum at 1858 UTC are expected to arrive.  

    Large AR3296 and AR3297 will set behind the northwestern edge of the solar disc in a few days. In the meantime, AR3301 and AR3302 emerged in the northeast.  

    Helioseismological observations indicate another large sunspot group will follow them out. Therefore, the current variable nature of the evolution with numerous disturbances will continue."  

    Five days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:  

    https://youtu.be/E1lBqqWEa5Q[4]  

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.  

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]  . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .  

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .  

    Sunspot numbers for May 4 through 10, 2023 were 139, 90, 99, 99, 103, 151, and 154, with a mean of 119.3. 10.7 cm flux was 162, 161.9, 151.8, 157.2, 171.9, 194.7, and 170.1, with a mean of 167.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 30, 9, 16, 14, and 26, with a mean of 15.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 21, 8, 13, 11, and 19, with a mean of 11.9.


    [1] https://www.space.com/sun-reverse-sunspot-auroras-supercharge
    [2] https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/northern-lights-may-2023-backward-sunspot/
    [3] https://bit.ly/44Rruxk
    [4] https://youtu.be/E1lBqqWEa5Q
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 19 19:08:07 2023
    05/19/2023

    This reporting week, May 11-17, average daily sunspot number was
    nearly the same as last week, 118.6 compared to 119.3, only
    marginally lower.

    But average daily solar flux dropped from 167.8 to 143.2.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, both planetary and middle
    latitude A index at 9.6. Last week the two numbers were 15.1 and
    11.9, respectively.

    What is the outlook for the next few weeks?

    10.7 cm solar flux is forecast to have a peak of 165 on June 8.

    The predicted numbers are 145 on May 19, 140 on May 20-21, 135 on
    May 22-24, 140 on May 25-26, 145 on May 27, 155 on May 28-30, 160 on
    May 31 and June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165, 160,
    150, 145, and 150 on June 8-12, then 155 on June 13-17, 150 on June
    18, 145 on June 19-21, 140 and 145 on June 22-23, and 155 on June
    24-26 then 160 on June 27-28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 15 and 5 on May 19-23, 12
    on May 24-25, 15 on May 26, 10 on May 27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May
    30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and 12 on June 2-5, 8 on June
    6-8, then 5 on June 9-18, 12 and 20 on June 19-20, 15 on June 21-22,
    10 on June 23-24, 8 on June 25, and 5 on June 26-28.

    These numbers are updated daily here:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt[1]

    Thanks to reader David Moore for this:

    "How 1,000 undergraduates helped solve an enduring mystery about the
    Sun:

    "https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230509122026.htm[2]

    "For three years at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, a group of
    students spent an estimated 56,000 hours analyzing the behavior of
    hundreds of solar flares. Their results could help astrophysicists
    understand how the Sun's corona reaches temperatures of millions of
    degrees Fahrenheit."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - May 18, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "On May 12, we expected a CME impact from the flare on the evening
    of May 9. It was indeed registered - at 0635 UTC the geomagnetic
    storm began. However, it was weaker than expected, of G1 class.

    "On 13 May at 1915 UTC, an unexpected CME impact followed for a
    change, which again triggered another G1 class geomagnetic storm.

    "On 16 May, we expected another smaller CME. The particle cloud has
    been slowly approaching Earth since the magnetic filament eruption
    in the southern hemisphere of the Sun on 12 May.

    "The next solar flare on May 16, with a maximum at 1643 UTC, was
    M9.6 class. It came from a sunspot group still hiding behind the
    southeastern limb of the Sun. In fact, it may have been an X flare,
    partially obscured by the solar horizon. Yet it caused the strong
    Dellinger effect (shortwave fade) over North America. After the
    sunspot group came out on the solar disk, we could observe it as AR
    3310. It's about three times wider than Earth, and its magnetic
    configuration promises more flares.

    "Not only was solar flare activity quite high, but the Sun was
    hurling so many CMEs into space that hardly a day went by without
    one hitting Earth. Therefore, the frequency of geomagnetic storms
    was also higher, followed by frequent deterioration of shortwave
    propagation conditions. In summary, the 25th solar cycle continues
    to evolve nicely."

    Frank, VO1HP sent this from St. Johns, Newfoundland:

    "On May 12 1957-2113 UTC, there was a strong 6M Es opening into mid
    South America. Logged 20 stations using FT8. No CW or SSB heard.
    Stations worked at VO1HP remote station: LU3CQ, CE3SX, 2SV, LI7DUE,
    9AEA, 9DO, 1FAM, 8EX, CX3VB, PP5BK, LU2DPW, CX1VH, PU3AMB, CX6VM, LU3FAP, XQ3SK, XQ3MCC, CE3VRT, 3SOC, and LU5FF.

    "Antenna 4el Yagi at 35ft overlooking ocean. K3 + PR6, KPA500
    KAT500. Other VO1s seen: VO1CH, VO1SIX, and VO1AW."

    On April 24, Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

    "I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
    The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
    in a 2 hour period.

    "On Monday, April 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
    had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
    that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
    then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
    influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
    much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
    FANTASTIC and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
    understand.

    "Here's my question.  Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
    determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
    20m and 40m)?

    "You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
    egg.'"

    As I first reported in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP017, I told
    him that a very useful tool (to use) is to check real time
    geomagnetic indices with this:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[3]

    Nice quiet conditions show a planetary A index at 1 or 2, unsettled
    conditions at 3, then above 3 conditions are disturbed. The scale is logarithmic, so each point in either direction is important.

    Another approach is to use pskreporter at https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[4] which is handy if you live
    in a grid square that has many active hams, or a nearby grid that is
    more populated.

    You can check FT8 activity on any band. There is also a "Country of
    Callsign" selection so you can check activity across your nation of
    choice. Recently when I have raised nobody on 10 meter FT8 this
    option showed no activity here in the Pacific Northwest but plenty
    of 10 meter activity in the southeast United States.

    Here is a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/xSQYjH6D_YA[5]

    NASA sunspot picture:

    https://bit.ly/458DrPw[6]

    A video of a recent eruption:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm7M5pqjCgY[7]

    Here are articles about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/434c5bw[8]

    https://bit.ly/3pWId2e[9]

    https://bit.ly/45hXTxh[10]

    https://bit.ly/3MEkCwa[11]

    NASA warning of a Solar Storm threat:

    https://bit.ly/3pSK4p2[12]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[13]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[14] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[15] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[16] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[17] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[18] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19] .

    Sunspot numbers for May 11 through 17, 2023 were 152, 134, 120, 109,
    103, 106, and 106, with a mean of 118.6. 10.7 cm flux was 163.4,
    149.1, 143.8, 139.7, 134.5, 134.3, and 137.9, with a mean of 143.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 19, 13, 8, 6, 8, and 4, with a
    mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 10, 15, 12, 9, 6, 10, and
    5, with a mean of 9.6.

     


    [1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt
    [2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230509122026.htm
    [3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
    [4] https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [5] https://youtu.be/xSQYjH6D_YA
    [6] https://bit.ly/458DrPw
    [7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm7M5pqjCgY
    [8] https://bit.ly/434c5bw
    [9] https://bit.ly/3pWId2e
    [10] https://bit.ly/45hXTxh
    [11] https://bit.ly/3MEkCwa
    [12] https://bit.ly/3pSK4p2
    [13] k7ra@arrl.net
    [14] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [15] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [16] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [17] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [18] http://k9la.us/
    [19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 26 22:50:42 2023
    05/26/2023

    Both average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week.  Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 118.6 to 133.4, while average solar flux went from 143.2 to 161.2.

    Geomagnetic indicators were more active.  Average daily planetary A index went from 9.6 to 17.1, while average middle latitude A index rose from 9.6 to 14.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 150 on May 26, 155 on May 27 and 28, then 150, 145, 140 and 135 on May 29 through June 1, 155 on June 2 to 4, then 160, 165, 160, 155, and 150 on June 5 to 9, 145 on June 10 and 11, 150 on June 12, 155 on June 13 and 14, 160 on June 15, 165 on June 16 and 17, then 160, 155 and 150 on June 18 to 20, 155 on June 21 and 22, then 160, 165 and 160 on June 23 to 25, 155 on June 26 and 27, 150 on June 28, and 155 on June 29 to July 1, then 160, 165 and 160 on July 2 to 4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 26 to 30, 5 on May 31 through June 1, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 2 to 5, 5 on June 6 to 15, then 12, 10, 5, 18, 22, 15 and 10 on June 16 to 22, 5 on June 23 to 28, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 29 through July 2, and 5 through the first week of July.

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - May 25, 2023

    We've seen another seven days of turbulent developments on the Sun and around the Earth.  The large, seen even without binoculars (e.g., eclipse glasses) visible sunspot group AR3310 in the southern hemisphere was the source of the strongest flare on May 16 with an X-ray event maximum of M9.6.

    Another group AR3311 in the north, due to its unstable magnetic field configuration "beta-gamma-delta", produced almost all the other flares.  The stronger ones were the cause of Dellinger events (SWF = Shortwave fadeout, in the case of M9.6 it was registered in the whole shortwave range in the region where the Sun was high).

    Moreover, the eruptions, combined with sporadic E layer, often significantly affected the propagation in the lower shortwave bands by deep and irregular fadeouts.

    SOHO recorded a rare conjunction on May 21, when a filament near the Sun's north pole was ejected as a CME in direction to the Pleiades, Seven Sisters star cluster.  Coronagraph on SOHO has been operating since 1995 and was the first to operate in real time.  No one had ever seen anything like it before.

    Since May 24, we observed a new and rapidly growing group of spots, AR3315, in which we can expect more major solar flares as time goes on.  So the turbulent evolution with changing and often worsening shortwave propagation conditions continue.

    F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH"

    K7EG wrote:

    "I have been in the DX hobby since 1950 and seem to see an increasing, alarming recent trend in solar and geomagnetic activity impacting trends in radio disturbances.  Tell me I am wrong and it's just a 'blip' but solar activity seems beyond the norm and worsening."

    I replied that with greater solar activity we should expect more flares, solar wind, and disturbances.  I think the disturbances are normal and expected with the rising solar cycle.

    When I suspect conditions are disturbed, this is where I check to see what is happening in real time:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[1]

    Beautiful aurora:  https://tinyurl.com/2zxdmpu6[2]

    Sunspot images:  https://tinyurl.com/muaakxn9[3]

    https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-images-powerful-solar-telescope/[4]

    https://bit.ly/3MCqAwm[5]

    Thanks to NO6ED for this story about an undersea volcano disrupting the ionosphere.  https://bit.ly/428OAwM[6]

    This weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX CW Contest.

    https://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm[7]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8].   When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9]  and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]  .  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

    Sunspot numbers for May 18 through 24, 2023 were 121, 155, 138, 140, 97, 130, and 153, with a mean of 133.4.  10.7 cm flux was 150.6, 164.6, 169.6, 163.4, 161.5, 154.9, and 164.1, with a mean of 161.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 9, 35, 28, 21, 12, and 12, with a mean of 17.1.  Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 26, 19, 17, 11, and 10, with a mean of 14.4.


    [1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
    [2] https://tinyurl.com/2zxdmpu6
    [3] https://tinyurl.com/muaakxn9
    [4] https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-images-powerful-solar-telescope/
    [5] https://bit.ly/3MCqAwm
    [6] https://bit.ly/428OAwM
    [7] https://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 2 18:14:10 2023
    06/02/2023

    Average daily solar flux values dropped over the past week, but
    sunspot numbers were nearly the same, comparing May 25 to 31 to the
    previous week.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 161.2 to 155.3. Geomagnetic
    indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index
    declining from 17.1 to 7.3, and middle latitude numbers from 14.4 to
    7.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 160 on June 2, 155 on June 3-4, 150 on June
    5-8, 130 on June 9-11, then 135, 140, 143, 145, and 150 on June
    12-16, 155 on June 17-20, 150 on June 21-25, then 145, 140 and 135
    on June 26-28 and 130 on June 29 to July 8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 10 and 8 on June 2-5, 5 on
    June 6-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-24, 12
    and 10 on June 25-26, then 5 on June 27-28, then 15, 12, 15, 10 and
    8 on June 29 through July 3, then 5 on July 4 through the middle of
    the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - June 1, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "The Sun still surprises us, it has been in the habit for billions
    of years, but we only observe it for a few hundred years. So, we
    have a right to be surprised by what it is doing and what we can
    observe with instruments on satellites and powerful solar telescopes
    on Earth, including the largest four-metre one on the island of Maui
    in Hawaii, which can see the very fine structures of sunspot nuclei.

    "What's more, we're seeing spots on the far side of the Sun that are
    so big, they affect the vibration of the whole Sun. But we can only
    see their structure and predict possible flares after they appear on
    the eastern limb of the solar disk, which was not at all the case
    with the current most active AR3315, which did not appear there. It
    emerged later, thereafter began to grow rapidly.
     
    "Conversely, the source of the next big flare was hidden behind the southeastern limb, and we only saw the prominence above it.

    "Meanwhile, the larger groups of sunspots have mostly moved to the
    western half of the solar disk. A large coronal hole in the southern
    hemisphere now crosses the central meridian. This increases the
    likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances starting on June 2."

    Mike, AK7ML wrote:

    "I recall in a movie about Pearl Harbor that they could not reach
    Hawaii from stateside on HF and then they sent the message by cable
    telegraph in routine status, so Pearl was not informed of the attack
    in time.

    "For years I have been able to work Australia in the morning and now
    it is Indonesia that is workable instead!"

    A story about a big sunspot:

    https://www.fox9.com/news/giant-sunspot-ar3310-visible-earth[1]

    I've added information from this resource to the text appearing at
    the bottom of every propagation forecast bulletin (this resource
    comes from September 2002 QST):

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[2]

    I was sad to learn that old friend Chip Margelli, K7JA became a
    Silent Key on May 25. Chip was from the Seattle area, and first came
    to my attention when he became proficient in the Japanese language
    during high school, then specialized in running JA stations at the
    old Rush Drake, W7RM contest station on Foulweather Bluff in Puget
    Sound.  At one time he may have been the most famous American ham in
    Japan, or so I heard at the time.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

    Sunspot numbers for May 25 through 31, 2023 were 121, 127, 125, 119,
    153, 144, and 147, with a mean of 133.7. 10.7 cm flux was 152.1,
    149, 156.9, 151.3, 154.4, 162, and 161.4, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 6, 4, 11, 4, 5, and 10, with
    a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 11, 6, 5, 11, 5, 6, and
    11, with a mean of 7.9.

     


    [1] https://www.fox9.com/news/giant-sunspot-ar3310-visible-earth
    [2] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [3] k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 9 18:29:02 2023
    06/09/2023

    Solar activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot
    number increasing from 133.7 to 139, and average daily solar flux
    from 155.3 to 166.8.

    Average daily planetary A index stayed the same at 7.3, and average
    middle latitude A index went from 7.9 to 8.6.

    Predicted solar flux doesn't show any improvement, with peaks at 170
    on June 23-25 and July 20-21.

    The forecast shows solar flux at 168, 163, 157, 160, 157, 153, 160
    and 150 on June 9-16, 155 on June 17-20, then 160 and 165 on June
    21-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168, 165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160
    on June 29 through July 4, then 155, 150 and 145 on July 5-7, then
    140, 135, 140, 143, 145 and 150 on July 8-13, and 155 on July 14-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10 and 8 on June 9-12, 5 on
    June 13-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-26,
    then 10, 12, 5 and 5 on June 27-30, then 8, 12 and 8 on July 1-3,
    and 5 on July 4-7, then 10, 12 and 8 on July 8-10, and 5 on July
    11-14, then 22. 15. 12 and 10 on July 15-18.

    In some previous bulletins I was reporting 10 meter propagation
    observed with FT8 only into Florida from my QTH in Seattle, and also
    into Mexico at a similar distance.

    Recently on 10 meters I am seeing propagation into VK/ZL, and in
    North America mostly into Southern California, Nevada, Utah and
    Arizona. Some seasonal variation, I suppose.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - June 8, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "In the last seven days, solar activity has remained at a slightly
    elevated level, with daily C-class flares and a few M-class flares.
    This, together with the decrease in geomagnetic activity, has
    resulted in a gradual increase in the daily maximum of the highest
    usable frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer. At the same time,
    however, the attenuation in the lower ionospheric layers grew, which
    manifested as earlier morning closures and later evening openings of
    the longer shortwave bands.

    "Particle clouds from CMEs during solar flares mostly did not reach
    Earth - with one exception: on 7 June at 2224 UTC, the solar wind
    speed jumped from 340 to 380 km/s. For a short time, the Earth's
    magnetic field activity increased, usually only to K=3.

    "The situation was further complicated by the sporadic-E layer,
    whose season is approaching its peak.

    "Inhomogeneities (non-uniformities) in the sporadic-E layer appeared
    quite frequently and extended reflections were observed in the
    ionograms.

    "As a consequence, the scattering of electromagnetic waves was as
    well manifested as attenuation. We are talking about the ionosphere
    of the northern hemisphere of the Earth. Here we will wait for the
    improvement when Summer ends there -  which fortunately will be much
    earlier than Summer ends in the troposphere."

    While searching for something else, I ran across this article from
    the RSGB:

    http://bit.ly/45TjWuA[1]

    Mike, W9NY wrote:

    "Having lived through multiple sunspot cycles since I was first
    licensed in 1955, I cannot believe that 10 meters is nearly dead,
    and 15 meters is minimally open. Nothing on 6 meters either.

    "I discussed this with my cousin who is an astrophysicist at Oxford
    who basically said, 'there are a lot of factors.' I'm just wondering
    what our ham radio gurus think. I would have expected phenomenal
    propagation but there is very little. Might this be related to
    atomic/chemical changes in the Earth's ionosphere?"

    I offered the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility as a record of
    sunspot and solar flux data going back to 1989.

    It can be updated weekly with a plain text file of the latest
    propagation bulletin.

    The data file can then be imported to any spreadsheet program for
    analysis and custom graphing.

    http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp[2]

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/-ElKuld9xW8[3]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[8]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11]
    Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2023 were 143, 147, 112, 110,
    151, 133, and 177, with a mean of 139. 10.7 cm flux was 163.9,
    162.3, 164.6, 168.3, 169.2, 171.8, and 167.2, with a mean of 166.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 5, 11, 5, 7, and 5, with a
    mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 8, 5, 11, 6, 10, and 6,
    with a mean of 8.6.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/45TjWuA
    [2] http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp
    [3] https://youtu.be/-ElKuld9xW8
    [4] k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10]
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 16 15:00:01 2023
    06/16/2023

    At 2256 UTC on June 16 the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre
    issued a geomagnetic warning: "The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Jun
    has increased as the Earth entered a coronal hole wind stream after
    15/0545UT. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 16-Jun
    with isolated periods of G1-Minor level activity."

    Earlier in the day I checked the NOAA planetary K index page, and it
    showed a jump from K index of about 1.8 at 1200 UTC to about 4.1 at
    1500 and again at 1800 UTC, then about 4.5 at 2100 UTC and 5.5 at
    0000 UTC on June 16. At 0300 UTC it was down a bit to 5.

    See, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[1] .

    Solar activity declined this week, with average daily sunspot
    numbers dropping from 139 to 122, while average daily solar flux
    decreased from 166.8 to 154.8. This compares the current reporting
    week of June 8-14 against the previous seven days.

    Average daily planetary A index decreased from 7.3 to 5.7, and
    average daily middle latitude A index from 8.6 to 6.7.

    On June 14 Spaceweather.com[2] reported two new sunspot groups emerging across the Sun's southeastern horizon.

    Forecasters Cundiff and Trost of the U.S. Air Force 557th Weather
    Wing predict solar flux at 155 on June 16-17, 160 on June 18-19,
    then 155, 160 and 165 on June 20-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168,
    165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160 on June 29 through July 4, 165 on
    July 5, 170 on July 6-8, then 155, 157, 153 and 160 on July 9-12,
    150 on July 13-14, 155 on July 15-17, then 160 and 165 on July
    18-19, and 170 on July 20-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 12 and 8 on June 16-18, 5 on June
    19-20, 8 on June 21-22, 5 on June 23-26, 12 on June 27-28, 5 on June
    29-30, then 12 and 8 on July 1-2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8-10,
    then 5, 5, and 12 on July 11-13, and 10 on July 14-15, and 5 on July
    16-23.

    These predictions look great for ARRL Field Day, which is June
    24-25. Why? Solar flux peaks at 170 on June 23-25, and the predicted
    planetary A index is a nice quiet 5 on June 22-26. Next week we will
    present an updated forecast just prior to Field Day weekend.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere June 16 - June 22, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The first half of June was quieter than May, both on the Sun and in
    the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere.

    "However, helioseismic maps of the far side of the Sun showed a
    number of large active regions, probably sunspots. We therefore
    expected an increase in activity. But that's not likely to happen
    until a week from now.

    "Even so, there were some rather unexpected eruptions of moderate
    magnitude during the local midday, which triggered a SWF (Shortwave
    Fading) that could have broken the QSO in the longer half of the
    shortwave band.

    "Meanwhile, we observed a coronal hole in the solar equator region
    that crossed the central meridian on June 12.

    "Associated with it is the co-rotating interaction region (CIR),
    which are the transition zones between the slow and fast solar wind
    streams. Since the accumulation of solar plasma in the solar wind
    results in structures that are similar to the arrival of a CME, we
    expected a geomagnetic storm on the evening of 15 June UTC. The
    estimate was quite accurate - the disturbance began at 1500 UTC.

    "We can expect the geomagnetic field to be active for a few more
    days, including smaller storms."

    K6LMN wrote:

    "It was great on 6m last weekend. I was only on SSB on 6m, but I
    understand it was open all over on FT8. I believe the openings were
    caused by summer E-skip, not F2. I worked many, many stations in
    your grid square. Roger K6LMN in DM04sb Los Angeles."

    He sent this to N0JK:

    "We on the West Coast were finally treated to some decent E-skip on
    6 meters SSB and CW (do not know about FT8). The June VHF Contest
    was just great Saturday and Sunday afternoons into early evening,
    Pacific Daylight time. Before this contest the band out here has
    been fairly quiet.

    "So briefly, I was K6LMN/Limited Rover in DM03  DM04 all around LA.
    I had a tight schedule with many social engagements plus two
    funerals to attend. I could not get too serious with heavy artillery
    or going to 5,000+ ft. mountaintops. For 6m I simply used my Larsen
    5 ft. magmount on the car roof. The rig was my old IC-706IIG with
    only 90 watts SSB. I was also on 2m, 1-1/4m, and 70 cm.

    "Most DX contacts were on both days up to Oregon, Washington, Idaho,
    Montana, BC, and Alberta. But the surprise was Sunday early evening.
    Best 2 way DX was N9XG in EN60 (Indiana) and K9CT in EN50 (Illinois)
    with 1 hour to go before contest close. They were like 5 by 5 on
    peaks on SSB. I am sure all this big DX was double hop summer
    E-skip.

    "A surprise was VA6AN way up in Canada popping in/out on SSB with
    peaks up to 5 by 5 Sunday eve about 6:30 pm local time. However, the
    QRM was horrible (my whip is omnidirectional) so he did not work me.

    "I worked K7YO up in CN85 (his alternate QTH) and he said he was
    getting into Florida on SSB or CW or FT8 on 6M. Maybe triple hop
    E-skip?

    "I am unhappy that us West Coasters are not getting any F2 so far on
    6m in Solar Cycle 25. I am 85 years old, licensed in 1955 and was
    lucky to enjoy the all-time best F2 openings on 10m and 6m (AM) back
    in the Golden Days in 1956-1958 in Solar Cycle 19. Incredible!"

    N0JK sent a note on June 12 that he worked IK5YJY on 6 meter FT8. He
    also wrote: "6M Es all weekend and 2M Es Sunday eve for the ARRL VHF
    contest. By the way, you had a station (W9NY) comment about poor
    conditions on 6M in last week's bulletin. Last weekend was awesome.
    I made 3 JA contacts with 10w and a 3 el yagi from KS.

    "Today A71VV (Qatar) was in to Northeast KS around 1400z."

    Check out the images on the A71VV page on QRZ.com.

    Scotty, W7PSK sent a note on June 12 listing countries worked on 6
    meter FT8: Balearic Islands, France, Spain, England and Canada.

    An image of the International Space Station over a sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3NgsByW[3]

    A video too:

    https://bit.ly/43Em3B1[4]

    A study of the Sun's coldest region:

    https://bit.ly/3X6ErQu[5]

    More sunspots.

    https://bit.ly/3Nt5Ys6[6]

    Another breathless warning from South Asia about flares:

    https://bit.ly/42Rt2FG

    This weekend is the 64th annual CW weekend of the All Asian DX
    Contest. See the JARL web site for rules:

    https://bit.ly/43GPrXq[7]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[12]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 8 through 14, 2023 were 149, 152, 116, 116,
    116, 98, and 107, with a mean of 122. 10.7 cm flux was 168.5, 164.3,
    161.2, 153.8, 146.1, 146.3, and 143.5, with a mean of 154.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 6, 6, and 5, with a
    mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 4, 10, 8, 8, and 5,
    with a mean of 6.7.

     


    [1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
    [2] http://Spaceweather.com
    [3] https://bit.ly/3NgsByW
    [4] https://bit.ly/43Em3B1
    [5] https://bit.ly/3X6ErQu
    [6] https://bit.ly/3Nt5Ys6
    [7] https://bit.ly/43GPrXq
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 23 16:31:17 2023
    06/23/2023

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose this week. There were two new
    sunspot groups on June 15, another on June 17 and one more on June
    18, three more on June 19, two more on June 20 and another on June
    21.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 122 to 143, and average
    daily solar flux rose from 154.8 to 165.4.

    Average daily planetary A index jumped from 5.7 to 15.4, while the
    middle latitude numbers increased from 6.7 to 13.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 180 on June 23-24, 185 on June 25-27, 180 on
    June 28, 175 on June 29 through July 1, 180 on July 2-3, 175 on July
    4-5, 170 on July 6-10, then 165 on July 11, 160 on July 12-13, 165
    on July 14-15, 160 and 155 on July 16-17, 160 on July 18-19, 165 on
    July 20-24, 170 on July 25, 175 on July 26-28, and 180 on July
    29-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10 and 8 on June 23-25, then 5,
    5, and 12 on June 26-28, then 5, 5, and 12 again on June 29 through
    July 1, 8 on July 2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8, 5 on July 9-11,
    then a dramatic increase to 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July
    14-15, and 12 on July 16-17, 10 on July 18, 5 on July 19-23, 12 on
    July 24-25, 5 on July 26-27, 12 and 8 on July 28-29, and 5 on July
    30 through August 3.

    These predictions are from forecasters Liming and Dethlefsen of the
    US Air Force 557th Weather Wing at Offutt AFB.

    See https://bit.ly/3qRNJnr[1] .

    So, what does this forecast show for ARRL Field Day, which is this
    weekend?

    Geomagnetic numbers are a bit more unsettled than what was shown in
    last week's bulletin, which had an A index of 5 for Friday through
    Sunday. The latest shows 14, 10 and 8. Predicted solar flux looks
    excellent, at 180, 180 and 185.

    Of course, Field Day does not begin until Saturday, but here we also
    include data for the day prior.

    Here is a X1.1 solar flare video:

    https://bit.ly/3CI0OCA[2]

    Another report from South Asia regarding solar flares as some sort
    of existential threat.  Don't worry. Nothing terrifying about what
    they report, but there is a nice description of what the SOHO
    observatory does.

    https://bit.ly/444VhSk[3]

    https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov[4]

    Reader David Moore shared this video:

    https://www.space.com/earth-sunlight-dance-solstice-video[5]

    Don't know why, but no weekly report from OK1HH this time around.

    On Thursday I attended an online event, the "Space Weather
    Enterprise Forum," thanks to a tip from K6PFA.

    Most of the sessions concerned threats from solar flares, but there
    was great commentary from Bill Murtaugh of NOAA's Space Weather
    Prediction Center.

    He noted that the current solar cycle should peak in summer 2024
    instead of 2025 and will peak much stronger than the consensus
    forecast from earlier in the cycle. He also noted that increased
    flare activity always occurs in the years following a sunspot cycle
    peak.

    John Dudley, Managing Director of Flight Operations at American
    Airlines gave an interesting presentation about how space weather
    affects routing of international flights.

    He mentioned their expert on space weather at the airline, and I
    looked him up. Yes, a ham, KC1ENP. Could not find an email address
    for him, so I sent a QSL card to make contact.

    Thanks to https://spaceweather.com/[6] for this fascinating article about setting up a personal space weather station.  It is under the
    heading, "A New Way To Detect Solar Flares":

    https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1403/2023/[7]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[12]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 15 through 21, 2023 were 112, 120, 110,
    133, 181, 155, and 190, with a mean of 143. 10.7 cm flux was 153.1,
    157.2, 158.1, 164.1, 168.8, 180.1, and 176.4, with a mean of 165.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 38, 8, 10, 10, 10, and 8,
    with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 17, 24, 8, 12, 9,
    13, and 9, with a mean of 13.1.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3qRNJnr
    [2] https://bit.ly/3CI0OCA
    [3] https://bit.ly/444VhSk
    [4] https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov
    [5] https://www.space.com/earth-sunlight-dance-solstice-video
    [6] https://spaceweather.com/
    [7] https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1403/2023/
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 30 17:01:40 2023
    06/30/2023

    Space Weather News sent this alert on June 29:

    "BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: One of the biggest sunspots in years is directly
    facing Earth. AR3354 is 10 times wider than Earth and about 1/3rd
    the size of the historical Carrington sunspot. It's so big,
    observers in Europe and North America are seeing it naked eye
    through the smoke of Canadian wildfires. Earth-directed flares are
    likely in the days ahead."

    See spaceweather.com[1] for continuing coverage.

    Conditions were favorable over the Field Day weekend, with the
    exception of a brief period when the planetary K index rose to 5 on
    Saturday night. This is mentioned in the commentary by OK1HH which
    follows.

    There were five new sunspot groups on June 23, two more on June 24,
    another on June 26 and another on June 27.

    Average daily sunspot numbers were up, and solar flux was down.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 143 to 170, and average daily
    solar flux declined slightly from 165.4 to 160.3.

    This is unexpected, because we normally see these values track
    together.

    Predicted solar flux is 150 on June 30 through July 5, 155 on July
    6, 135 on July 7-8, then 145, 155, 160, 165 and 170 on July 9-13,
    175 on July 14-18, 170 on July 19-21, then 160, 150, 145, 145, 140
    and 135 on July 22-27, then 130 on July 28 through August 1, 135 on
    August 2-4, then 145, 155, and 165 on August 5-7. Flux values may
    continue to rise to a peak of 175 before mid-August.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15 and 10 on June 30 through July
    2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 and 8 on July 8-9, 5 on July 10-11, then a
    stormy 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July 14-23, 12 on July 24-25, 8
    on July 26-27, 12 on July 28-29, 8 on July 30, 5 on July 31 through
    August 3, 12 and 8 on August 4-5, 5 on August 6-7, then 20 and 30
    again on August 8-9. Note that recurring stormy conditions are
    predicted at one solar rotation, which is about 27.5 days, following
    the July 12-13 prediction.

    The above predictions are from forecasters Thompson and Kiser at the
    USAF space weather group.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere June 30 to July 06, 2023 from F.K. Janda OK1HH.

    "In the solar X-ray field during June we could observe the most
    significant solar flare so far: X1 in the active region AR3341. It
    happened on June 20 at 1709 UTC near the southeastern limb of the
    solar disk. In the region where the Sun was high, it caused the
    Dellinger Effect, https://bit.ly/3NA61kT .

    "The same sunspot group was also the source of the M4.8 flare two
    days later. It ejected a CME, but not toward Earth.

    "Nevertheless, its passage close to Earth probably caused an
    increase in geomagnetic activity on the evening of 24 June.
    Theoretically, it could also have been a CME from the X1 eruption of
    20 June.

    "On June 26, we were surprised by sunspot group AR3354 just above
    the solar equator and east of the central meridian. It did not exist
    the day prior. Over the next two days its area grew to ten times the
    size of the Earth, making it easily observable by the naked eye.

    "Significantly, its magnetic configuration changed to
    beta-gamma-delta, which is enough energy for powerful solar flares.

    "The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled so far.

    "AR3354 will be pointed directly toward Earth in the next few days,
    so it looks like the next disturbance could begin on July 1. And of
    course, a possible large flare could cause a Dellinger Effect
    throughout the whole HF spectrum."

    Pat, W5THT wrote:

    "I have been an active ham since 1956 and on the Mississippi coast
    since 1971. This year has strengthened my belief in an old
    observation.
     
    "There is/was a dome of high pressure that moved from over Texas to
    now over me. Before it moved east, I was able to take part in the 6
    meter propagation to Europe.

    "Since it moved over me, the DX Maps page shows a gap in the DX
    propagation from northern Florida to central Louisiana.  This is not
    the first time I have seen it happen, but the new generation of TV
    weather persons presented a picture of the dome of high pressure
    that coincided with my propagation observations. Suspicions
    confirmed?

    "Years ago, on 2 meters I noticed that propagation followed weather
    fronts up the east coast. Thanks for reading this and perhaps
    someone younger than me has already done the research."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "Wow -- a surprise opening on 6 meter FT8 to Brazil June 25!

    "A CME impact at 1900 UTC may have boosted the TEP MUF Sunday
    afternoon. That and some help with sporadic-E -- opening to Brazil
    on 6 meters from North America during the summer.

    "Had been out with our dog. Saw WQ0P PSK flags for PY2XB. Turned on
    radio at home with dipole. PY2XB was loud. Really loud. Also copied
    PY5CC. He spotted me as well, but no QSO. PY2XB in for almost half
    an hour. Like a pipeline. Saw him work a few 5s and 0s. KC0CF worked
    CE2SV. With higher solar activity, the TEP zone still works even in
    our summer. This mode works for D2UY (Angola), 3B9FR (Rodrigues
    Island in Indian Ocean), and ZL."

    An article on Solar Cycle 25 peak and nice images:

    https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI[2]

    Understanding Space Weather: A Glossary of Terms:

    https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ[3]

    "Astro Bob" on that big sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/46rC3YU[4]

    Frequent contributor David Moore shared this fascinating article
    comparing the current big sunspot with the one that launched the
    infamous Carrington Event 164 years ago.

    https://bit.ly/3CUGZYC[5]

    Another Solar Cycle article:

    https://bit.ly/3XvIk1y[6]

    Yet another Carrington Event article:

    https://bit.ly/3XuSe3o[7]

    Article about Solar max:

    https://bit.ly/44jM5tP[8]

    A Houston Chronicle article on solar max:

    https://bit.ly/445vtWf[9]

    Flares and how they are measured:

    https://bit.ly/3prvtRs[10]

    A video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from last week:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfXz9nk6NDs[11]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[16]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[17] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[18] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 22 through 28, 2023 were 176, 194, 200,
    180, 158, 141, and 141, with a mean of 170. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2,
    169.7, 160.8, 154.8, 157.7, 151.2, and 154.9, with a mean of 160.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 9, 16, 15, 11, 8, and 8, with
    a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 16, 10, 11, 7, and
    8, with a mean of 9.9.

     


    [1] http://spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI
    [3] https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ
    [4] https://bit.ly/46rC3YU
    [5] https://bit.ly/3CUGZYC
    [6] https://bit.ly/3XvIk1y
    [7] https://bit.ly/3XuSe3o
    [8] https://bit.ly/44jM5tP
    [9] https://bit.ly/445vtWf
    [10] https://bit.ly/3prvtRs
    [11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfXz9nk6NDs
    [12] k7ra@arrl.net
    [13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [16] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [17] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [18] http://k9la.us/
    [19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 7 23:41:03 2023
    07/07/2023

    The average daily sunspot number for June, 2023 was the highest in 21 years, according to Spaceweather.com.

    From a July 3 email alert from Spaceweather.com:

    "SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 21-YEAR HIGH:  It's official:  The average sunspot number in June 2023 hit a 21-year high.  Solar Cycle 25 has shot past its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24, and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century."

    Could we see another Cycle 19, the biggest in recorded history, even back before the birth of radio?

    Not too long ago, we heard that this cycle should peak in summer 2025.  Later that was revised to 2024.  Now I am seeing occasional references to a cycle peak at the end of this year.  

    From my own records, average daily sunspot numbers for April through June 2023 were 93.7, 125.8 and 143.9, a nice upward trend.

    Some popular news outlets seem confused by the difference between sunspot number and number of sunspots, and have quoted another higher average.

    Here is the difference.  If they are just counting the total number of sunspots for the month, this is far different from average daily sunspot numbers.  The sunspot number is somewhat subjective, but it gets ten points for each sunspot group, and one point for each sunspot in those groups.

    But I stand by my numbers.  They are all from NOAA and appear at the end of each bulletin.

    But they may be referencing International Sunspot Number, which may be different from the SESC numbers from NOAA.

    Here is an example of confusing sunspot numbers with number of sunspots: https://bit.ly/3NCQCAl[1]

    This one is also confusing, saying there were 163.4 sunspots in June. https://bit.ly/3PMu6Ym[2]

    But what does this mean?  It could be either 163 or 164 sunspots, but not a fractional number, unless it expresses an average.  The minimum sunspot number is 11.  This would be one sunspot group containing one spot.  They are always whole, not fractional integers.

    There was one new sunspot region (group) on June 30, three more on July 1, one more on July 2, another on July 4, and one more on July 5.

    Sunspot and solar flux data again this week did not track together. Average daily sunspot number declined from 170 to 126.1, while average daily solar flux rose slightly from 160.3 to 164.5.

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with average daily planetary A index declining from 10.7 to 7.3, and middle latitude averages from 9.9 to 8.

    Predicted solar flux is 155 on July 7, 150 on July 8 to 10, then 155 on July 11, 160 on July 12 to 13, 175 on July 14 to 18, 170 on July 19 to 21, 160 on July 22 and 23, 155 on July 24 and 25, 160 on July 26 and 27, 165 on July 28 and 29, then 170, 170 and 165 on July 30 through August 1, 155 on August 2 to 6, then 160, 165 and 170 on August 7 to 9, and 175 on August 10 to 14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 8 on July 7 to 9, 5 on July 10 and 11, then 20 and 30 on July 12 and 13, 8 on July 14 to 22, 5 on July 23 to 30, 8 on July 31 through August 1, then 5 on August 2 to 4, 12 and 8 on August 5 and 6, then 5, 20 and 30 on August 7 to 9, and 8 on August 10 to 18.

    Note those big numbers are about one solar rotation apart, which is about 27.5 days.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for July 6, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.  When the current 25th solar cycle began in December 2019, solar astronomers thought it would be a weak cycle similar to its immediate predecessor, solar cycle 24.  But now we have a twenty-one year peak.  And we expect a continued increase for about two more years.

    The misfortune is that ongoing global changes are reducing the ionization rate of the ionosphere.  Yet the current conditions for shortwave or decameter wave propagation do not match the amount of solar activity - they are worse.

    But that's not all.  Not only is solar cycle 25 likely to rival some of the more powerful cycles of the 20th century, but we're likely to see even more powerful solar flares and magnetic storms.  History repeats itself cyclically, and we need only think of the great Halloween storm of 2003, including the strongest solar flare ever recorded in X-ray (X45).

    The giant sunspot group AR3354 (only about four times smaller than the giant sunspot group of early September 1859) made its last appearance on July 2 with an X-class flare.  Two days later it eclipsed.

    We won't lose the source of the stronger flares, however - the growing AR3359, with its Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, crossed the central meridian toward active western longitudes on July 6 and will continue to grow.  With its predicted higher activity, we could see an increase in the Earth's magnetic field activity as early as the middle of next week.

    Tamitha Skov, from July 1.  https://youtu.be/HR8mm30oxOQ[3]

    Blackout  http://bit.ly/46tTRT8  https://bit.ly/3rhbjdz[4]

    Stormy weekend?  https://bit.ly/3pDrT6R[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[9]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive- propagation .  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11]

    Sunspot numbers for June 29 through July 5, 2023 were 112, 187, 119, 126, 117, 121, and 101, with a mean of 126.1.  10.7 cm flux was 162.2, 158.6, 165.5, 170.2, 173.2, 167.2, and 154.6, with a mean of 164.5.  Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 8, 5, 5, 5, 4, and 7, with a mean of 7.3.  Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 6, 8, 7, 5, and 9, with a mean of 8.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3NCQCAl
    [2] https://bit.ly/3PMu6Ym
    [3] https://youtu.be/HR8mm30oxOQ
    [4] https://bit.ly/3rhbjdz
    [5] https://bit.ly/3pDrT6R
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 14 23:35:52 2023
    07/14/2023

     "GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0713UT/13 JULY 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    A glancing CME impact is expected late on 13-July and another CME impact is expected early on 15-July. These impacts present the possibility of geomagnetic storm activity over 13-15 July."

    We saw a welcome rise in solar activity this reporting week, July 6-12. Referencing the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers rose from 126.1 to 181.9, while average daily solar flux increased from 164.5 to 179.4. On July 13 the solar flux was 202.9, well above the average for the previous seven days.

    Geomagnetic indicators did not change much, average planetary A index going from 7.3 to 8.6 and average daily middle latitude A index from 8 to 8.1.

    The most active day was July 7 when University of Alaska's college A index was 40.  The middle latitude A index on that day was only 11. The college A index is from a magnetometer in Fairbanks.

    What is the outlook for the next month?

    Predicted solar flux looks great over the next few days, at 200, 202, 198, 200, and 204 on July 14-18, 202 on July 19-21, 160 on July 22-23, 155 on July 24-25, 160 on July 26-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170 on July 30-31, 165 on August 1-4, 170 on August 5, 175 on August 6-7, 170 on August 8, then 165 on August 9-11, 170 on August 12, 175 on August 13-14, 170 on August 15-17, and 160 on August 18-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on July 14, 5 on July 15 through August 2, then 10, 8 and 5 on August 3-5, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on August 6-10, 5 on August 11 through the end of the month.

    On July 12, Spaceweather.com reported:  

    "A new hyperactive sunspot is producing M-class solar flares every few hours. This is causing shortwave radio blackouts around all longitudes of our planet. If current trends continue, an X-flare could be in the offing."

    See Spaceweather.com for updates.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere July 14-20, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "Over the past week, we were surprised by two large groups of spots that appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk.

    The first of these, AR3363, emerged in the southeast. Although it remained large, there was nothing significant going on. Its opposite was AR 3372 a few days later, which produced moderate-sized flares almost daily.

    In both cases, helioseismic echoes from the sun's far side suggested that it may be the leading edge of a large active region.

    But there was no indication that these would be areas with a diametrically different type of activity.

    The images of the two groups of spots were large enough to be observed by the Mars rover Perseverance. Because of Mars' position, it saw them a few days earlier than a terrestrial observer. For the record: Perseverance observes the Sun daily, but mainly so that it can tell from the drop in brightness that a Martian dust storm is approaching.

    AR3372 activity is increasing, while on July 11 and 12 several M-class solar flares (some with CMEs) have already occurred (X-class flare appeared to be imminent). In particular, it was almost certain that the Earth's magnetic field activity would increase in the following days. The probability of magnetic storms increased significantly as AR3372 rotated more and more toward the Earth."

    Carl, K9LA had comments on the OK1HH report from last week.  "There have been many papers in recent years that have looked at the trends in ionospheric parameters over the past decades. Although the changes are small, they do show up in ionosonde data after much math to eliminate solar activity and geomagnetic field activity. These results show both positive and negative trends in the F2 region electron density, likely due to neutral atmosphere dynamics and electrodynamics that could give regional differences.

    An interesting paper in 2008 Geophysical Research Letters modeled the increased levels of CO2 (global warming) in the atmosphere versus the impact on the ionosphere.

    See: https://bit.ly/3OaThCC[1]

    They used 2000 as the baseline with 365 ppmv of CO2, and doubled the amount of CO2 for the year 2100. Their results showed that electron densities in the E and F1 region would increase a couple percent in 2100 while the height of the E region peak would decrease a couple km. In the F2 region, the electron density would decrease by several percent in 2100 while the height of the F2 region would decrease 10 or so km."

    Thanks to reader David Moore for this, on aurora hype:

    https://bit.ly/44ovzsh[2]

    Flare video (with music.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aghiHieqCZQ[3]

    Huge sunspot:  https://bit.ly/44EcqTz[4]

    Tamitha Skov reports:  https://youtu.be/nwtCBH04bIg[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6]  and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8]

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[9]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12]

    Sunspot numbers for July 6 through 12, 2023 were 149, 147, 167, 183, 181, 227, and 219, with a mean of 181.9. 10.7 cm flux was 157.6, 161.4, 160.5, 179.2, 190.6, 213.5, and 193.3, with a mean of 179.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 18, 8, 4, 5, 8, and 6, with a mean of 8.6. Middle latitude A index was 11, 16, 6, 4, 6, 8, and 6, with a mean of 8.1.  


    [1] https://bit.ly/3OaThCC
    [2] https://bit.ly/44ovzsh
    [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aghiHieqCZQ
    [4] https://bit.ly/44EcqTz
    [5] https://youtu.be/nwtCBH04bIg
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Jul 31 22:10:57 2023
    07/21/2023

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined, but average daily solar flux increased. Sunspot averages were 181.9 last week, and 130.6 this week.  Average daily solar flux increased from 179.4 to 190.5.

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on July 14, three more on July 17 and another two on July 19.

    Average daily planetary and middle latitude A index were both 12.9 this week, rising from 8.6 and 8.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 185 on July 21-23, then 180, 178, 175 and 170 on July 24-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170 on July 30-31, 165 on August 1-4, then 170, 175, 175 and 170 on August 5-8, 165 on August 9-11, 170 on August 12, 175 on August 13-14, and 170 on August 15-19, 160 on August 20-23, 165 on August 24-25, then 170 on August 26-27 and 165 on August 28-31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 21-25, 5 on July 26 through August 2, then 10 and 8 on August 3-4, 5 on August 5-14, then 12, 8 and 8 on August 15-17, and 5 on August 18-29.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for July 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "We've seen another seven days of mostly moderate solar activity, with almost daily eruptions of moderate magnitude on the Sun.  Some of these have been the source of CMEs.  If the Earth has been affected by them, a geomagnetic disturbance followed, with a drop in MUF and a worsening of HF propagation in the process.

    As predicted, the expected CME hit the Earth's magnetic field on the afternoon of 14 July (as part of the Bastille Day celebrations, but not nearly as strongly as in 2000).

    Another CME left the Sun on 14 July, and yet another on July 15. Because the cloud of later ejected solar plasma was faster, it cannibalized the previous CME.  Together, they hit the Earth on July 18.

    But by then AR3363 had already produced a significant long-lasting M6-class solar flare, and energetic protons accelerated by this flare reached the Earth and caused a radiation storm.  Although MUFs were quite high, HF conditions were adversely affected by frequent occurrences of attenuation.

    Another CME hit the Earth on 20 July, registered by the Earth's magnetic field at 1708 UTC.

    Further developments were predicted up to G1 to G2 class geomagnetic storms, with a small probability also of G3, but by then this report will have been completed and sent out.

    Finally, just a little note on the consequences of global change: it has been manifested in the last eleven-year cycles, in the Earth's troposphere it is the result of warming, but in the ionosphere it is rather the opposite.  It has been the subject of a number of scientific papers in recent years.

    It is crucial for us, for amateur radio practice, that the current MUFs are lower than those calculated from sunspot counts for most of the twentieth century.  Therefore, we should input Ri (or solar flux SFU) into forecast programs lower than what is currently measured and published.

    F.K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/[1]  "

    News from N8II in West Virginia.

    "The bands are in much better shape than most hams realize; activity levels are normally quite low this summer.  In the IARU contest I observed 15M open to Europe through 0300 UTC and I had QSOs with Indonesia, China, Nepal, Japan, Central/Western Siberia, Kazakhstan, and the Philippines in the 2300-0300 UTC period.  I copied GR2HQ (Great Britain HQ station) on 10M CW at 0140 UTC.  At 1100 UTC on 15M EU and Central/West Asia were very loud and I started running a pile up on CW.

    The Far East was also in on 15M around 1400 UTC Saturday when I worked a loud Japanese station.

    During the evening/night EU signals were extremely loud on 20M.  I also worked a few EU on 10M 1300-1400 UTC Saturday thanks to Sporadic E and also caught Z30HQ (Macedonia HQ) on 10M CW Sunday about 1130 UTC.  I worked 697 QSOs concentrating on DX on the high bands in less than 12 hours with 100 W.

    Africa is workable on 10-15M well into our evening as are South Pacific stations.

    Sporadic E this year seems somewhat attenuated, but Es was good from here and great from the Central/Western USA during the June VHF contest.  I made about 170 CW/SSB QSOs."

    CNN presented a smart piece on the sunspot cycle peaking sooner than expected. https://bit.ly/3rzNJJ6[2]

    Double peaked flare.  https://bit.ly/46ZoznE[3]

    Astronomy club observes sunspots.  https://bit.ly/46SaacR[4]

    Aurora.  https://bit.ly/44FxM2U[5]

    Scientific American.  https://bit.ly/3rHzGkB[6]

    Early peak.  https://bit.ly/44Aa7AF[7] https://bit.ly/3rEa0Wj[8]

    Cannibal eruption.  https://bit.ly/3Q5dv1W[9]

    Great video of eruption.  https://youtu.be/YOzHHM4B4gA[10]

    The latest from Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/KsKDVOuboyw[11]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13]  and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]  .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15]  .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[16]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[17]  . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[18]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19]

    Sunspot numbers for July 13 through 19, 2023 were 146, 141, 96, 99, 149, 142, and 141, with a mean of 130.6.  10.7 cm flux was 202.9, 180.6, 178.5, 184.3, 180, 218.5, and 188.9, with a mean of 190.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 20, 8, 10, 24, 16, and 5, with a mean of 12.9.  Middle latitude A index was 9, 17, 9, 13, 19, 16, and 7, with a mean of 12.9.


    [1] http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
    [2] https://bit.ly/3rzNJJ6
    [3] https://bit.ly/46ZoznE
    [4] https://bit.ly/46SaacR
    [5] https://bit.ly/44FxM2U
    [6] https://bit.ly/3rHzGkB
    [7] https://bit.ly/44Aa7AF
    [8] https://bit.ly/3rEa0Wj
    [9] https://bit.ly/3Q5dv1W
    [10] https://youtu.be/YOzHHM4B4gA
    [11] https://youtu.be/KsKDVOuboyw
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [16] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [17] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [18] http://k9la.us/
    [19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Jul 31 22:10:58 2023
    07/28/2023

     Average daily sunspot numbers declined slightly over the past week (July 20-26) to 128.1, compared to 130.6 over the previous seven days.

    Average daily solar flux declined significantly from 190.5 to 172.2.

    The solar flux forecast sees values at 165 and 162 on July 28-29, 158 on July 30-31, then 155 on August 1-3, then 165, 170 and 175 on August 4-6, 180 on August 7-10, 175 on August 11-13, 180 on August 14-15, 175 on August 16-18, 170 on August 19, then 165, 165 and 160 on August 20-22, and 155 on August 23-26, 160 on August 27, 165 on August 28-30, 170 and 175 on August 31 through September 1, and 180 on September 2-6.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 28-29, 15 and 10 on July 30-31, 5 on August 1-3, 8 on August 4, 5 on August 5-9, 10 on August 10, 8 on August 11-13, 5 on August 14-19, then 10, 8 and 5 on August 20-22, 12 on August 23-24, 10 on August 25-26, 5 on August 27-29, 10 and 8 on August 30-31, and 5 on September 1-5.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere -- July 27, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "The likelihood of more massive solar flares has slowly decreased in recent days as large groups of spots have fallen behind the western limb of the solar disk and the magnetic configuration of the  remaining regions has become increasingly simple over the past few days.

    On July 20 and 21, two CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field in accordance with the prediction. However, both impacts were weak and did not produce even a minor geomagnetic storm.

    Another weak halo CME was expected to leave the Sun on 23 July at about 1530 UTC in a C5 class flare in spot group AR3376, coinciding with the outburst of a relatively nearby magnetic filament. The Earth's magnetic field detected its arrival at 0200 UTC on 26 July. The result was an increase in geomagnetic activity and a deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions. The disturbance actually started on 25 July at 2235 UTC, but it was not clear whether it was an early arrival of the same CME or another one that we did not detect.

    Note: since I will be abroad next week, I will not post the next comment on August 3, but on August 10."

    Sunspots, flares and aurora.  https://bit.ly/44JxcRp[1]

    Mars Rover sees the far side of the sun.  https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b[2]

    Rocket punches hole in ionosphere.  https://bit.ly/3KceBFB[3]

    Nearly five decades ago I witnessed the same thing, viewed from Marin County, California. It was a huge dramatic display, My friend had seen it before, and said it was created by a rocket launch from Vandenberg AFB in Southern California.

    Another CME.  https://bit.ly/44LhRjx[4]

    On July 27, Spaceweather.com sent this alert:

    "A STRONG FARSIDE CME JUST HIT SOLAR ORBITER: Europe's Solar Orbiter just got hit by the kind of CME that may have once caused a major power blackout on Earth. This time, Earth was not in the line of fire. It was a farside eruption that flew away from our planet. Maybe next time?"

    Massive flare?  https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC[5]

    Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov.  https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE[6]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8]  and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10]

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[11]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14]

    Sunspot numbers for July 20 through 26, 2023 were 131, 121, 103, 117, 141, 137, and 147, with a mean of 128.1  10.7 cm flux was 184.3, 172.8, 174.4, 172.5, 165.1, 169, and 167.4, with a mean of 172.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 13, 9, 6, 7, 11, and 21, with a mean of 11. Middle latitude A index was 10, 11, 9, 5, 8, 12, and 23, with a mean of 11.1.


    [1] https://bit.ly/44JxcRp
    [2] https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b
    [3] https://bit.ly/3KceBFB
    [4] https://bit.ly/44LhRjx
    [5] https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC
    [6] https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE
    [7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Aug 19 00:51:09 2023
    08/18/2023

    Eleven new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, August 10-16, but average solar indicators declined.

    There were two new sunspots groups on August 11, three more on August 13, another on August 14, two more on August 15, and three more on August 16. On August 17 another new one appeared.

    But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 108.9 to 95.7, while average daily solar flux dropped from 166.4 to 154.2.

    Predicted solar flux is 150, 155, and 157 on August 18-20, 160 on August 21-22, then 162, 165, 162, 160 and 164 on August 23-27, 168 on August 28-31, then 165, 163 and 160 on September 1-3, then 158, 155, 152 and 150 on September 4-7, and 148, 142, 140 and 130 on September 8-11, 135 on September 12-14, and 145, 150, 155, 158 and 160 on September 15-19, 162 on September 20-21, then 160 and 164 on September 22-23, and 168 on September 24-27.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on August 18-19, 5 on August 20-25, 12 on August 26, 5 on August 27 through September 5, then 10, 8 and 8 on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-11, then 12, 15, 12 and 8 on September 12-15, 5 on September 16-21, 12 on September 22, and 5 on September 23 through the end of the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere August 18-24, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "Solar activity has declined, both spot and flare. We have usually observed C-class solar flares, although the configurations of some active regions did not preclude the formation of M-class flares. We expect an upsurge in solar activity in the last five days of August, after which more sunspot groups should appear at the eastern limb of the solar disk.

    The Earth's ionosphere was quite sensitive to the increased influx of protons in the accelerated solar wind on 11 August and again on 16-17 August. Propagation improved on August 14-15 and worsened on August 16. I do not expect any other surprises before the end of the month."

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI, who often reports HF operations from his kayak, wrote:

    "I recently returned from a vacation at Lake Tahoe where I was running 10 watts into an end-fed half-wave wire vertical. The rental place was surrounded by extra-tall pine trees, but the base of the antenna was 30 feet above the ground on a high porch.

    My discovery (on the evenings of August 7 and 9, around 8 p.m. Pacific Coast time) was that CW DX was coming in on the 30-meter band. On the 7th, I contacted OV1CDX in Denmark on that band (and heard him again on subsequent nights). On the 9th, I contacted 6B2A in Egypt, who was coming in a solid S4.

    I had a couple other CW DX twilight/early-night contacts on 15 and 20 meters, but the 30 meter contacts surprised me."

    N4KZ reports from Frankfort, Kentucky:

    "Last week, I began copying SSB signals from Europe on the 10 and 12-meter bands.  They were weak but readable. It was the first time I've heard SSB signals on those bands from that part of the world in many months. Then, on August 15th beginning at 1248 UTC, I worked stations across Europe and the Middle East on 12-meter SSB with strong signals.

    About 20 minutes earlier, I tuned across the 10-meter phone band and only copied one signal. It was S79VU, Ravi, in the Seychelles. He was about S5 and working Europeans who I did not copy. But he came back to me on my first call. We've worked before but this was our first 10-meter QSO. It's only mid-August, but perhaps autumn propagation is beginning to emerge and with the continuing high sunspot count, I hope this marks the start of better HF conditions this fall and winter. I run about 800 watts into a multi-band Yagi with 3 active elements on each band. The antenna is up 55 feet. I live on a hilltop with a steep slope toward the north which has proven over the years to be an advantage.

    On July 1, I once again became active on the low-end of 2 meters doing weak-signal work. I was quite active on SSB and CW on the low end throughout the 1980s and '90s and to a lesser extent until about 2010. I worked 40 states from Kentucky but eventually decided to concentrate on HF and 6 meters. But I missed 2 meters and now I have returned.

    There's less SSB and CW than there used to be but quite a few are operating FT8 on 144.174 MHz which does a nice job with weak signals. So far I have worked 15 states and Ontario. Morning propagation a couple hours after sunrise allows for 300-400 mile QSOs routinely on FT8. And I've copied stations from Colorado, Long Island, NY and Connecticut on meteor scatter while using MSK144. After a 12-year hiatus from 2-meter weak-signal work, it's good to be back."

    AA6XE in Fremont, California wrote:

    "Interesting conditions on 10 meters although not that unusual. In the last couple of days propagation into the Pacific Northwest has materialized. A bunch of Beacons have surfaced. Beacons from

    Portland to well north of Vancouver BC are coming in every afternoon. I heard Tad Cook's (K7RA) 10 meter beacon yesterday (Aug 13). Beacons out of Mexico have been coming in on 10 Meters for over a month. Some of those beacons are located as far South as Veracruz. Beacons from Australia have been coming through on most days over the last month. NCDXF beacons VK6RBP in Western Australia and 4S7B in Sri Lanka were heard on 15 Meters for a few days.

    While propagation on 10 to the Pacific Northwest may not seem like much I recognize it as a marker that the days of summer propagation are numbered. Typically this doesn't happen until the last 2 weeks in August so it appears to be early this year. So like the Crocuses popping up in late February it doesn't do much for one aside from reminding us that better times are on the way.

    As to what we can expect this Fall it looks to be much improved over last year and at the peak of Cycle 24. The 90 day mean SFI currently stands at 166. Last year at this time 90 day mean stood at 114. The 90 day Mean SFI for the peak of Solar Cycle 24 was 155.  The 90 Day Mean made a significant run-up during late Spring early Summer increasing 21 points. For the last 5 weeks the Daily SFI has been sliding. It hasn't dropped enough to impact the 90 and 81 Day Mean Values just yet, but if the decline continues those numbers will sag.

    The rising phase of SC25 has its own characteristics. The solar flux rises rapidly for 4 to 8 weeks followed by an extended period of decline for 2 to 3 months. This makes it difficult to see the overall trend. It even faked out a number of heliophysicists who made the call that SC 25 had peaked in February 2023. The latest predictions call for SC 25 to peak at year-end 2023/2024. A few are calling for SC 25 to peak at mid-year 2024. It would be a pleasant surprise if the next surge kicks off a few weeks early, say by the first days of September. That would make a big impact of the conditions we can expect on 6 Meters this Fall."

    The latest from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/zjldvH1NYxg[1]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.


    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at:

    http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3] .

    For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see:

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[5]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at: 

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] .

    More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

    Sunspot numbers for August 10 through 16, 2023 were 83, 105, 61, 89, 85, 107, and 140, with a mean of 95.7  10.7 cm flux was 155.7, 152.8, 148.3, 150.4, 154, 158.1, and 160.1, with a mean of 154.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 8, 5, 5, 4, and 8, with a mean of 6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 6, 10, 7, 6, 7, and 10, with a mean of 7.7.


    [1] https://youtu.be/zjldvH1NYxg
    [2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 25 23:57:28 2023
    08/25/2023

    Five new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on August 17, another August 18, two more on August 21 and another on August 22.  

     Average daily sunspot numbers rose slightly, while average daily solar flux declined. Average daily sunspot numbers went from 95.7 to 105.9 and average daily solar flux declined from 154.2 to 149.4.

    No big geomagnetic events this week, and average daily planetary A index changed from 6 to 8.4 while average daily middle latitude index went from 7.7 to 10.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 145 on August 25-26, 150 on August 27, 155 on August 28-29, 160 on August 30-31, then 165, 163 and 160 on September 1-3, 162 on September 4-5, 158 on September 6-7, then 160 and 162 on September 8-9, 158 on September 10-11, 155 on September 12, 152 on September 13-15, 153 on September 16-18, 155 on September 19, and 158 on September 20-23, 162 on September 24-25, 165 on September 26-28, then 163 and 160 on September 29-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 25, then 5, 10 and 8 on August 26-28, 5 on August 29 through September 5, then 10, 8 and 8 on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-13, 12 on September 14, 10 on September 15-17, and 5 on September 18 through the end of the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere August 25-31, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Although solar activity has been rated as low over the last seven days, let's not be misled by an assessment based mainly on the number and importance of flares. Solar activity continues to increase toward the peak of cycle 25, expected in two years. Projected into the highest usable ionospheric F2 layer frequencies, this means that we may finally be able to look forward to a wide opening of the ten-meter band for DX shortwave contacts. If it occurs during this fall, we can expect the 25th cycle maximum to be quite high after all.

    It was pretty quiet over the weekend as all eight sunspot groups had stable magnetic fields. Despite another large sunspot appearing in the meantime, apparently magnetically connected to another sunspot on the other side of the solar equator, there was still not much going on. Only the M1.1 0 class solar flare on August 22 at 2304 UTC was an exception. But although it lasted long enough to carry a CME out of the solar atmosphere, it evidently did not.

    On August 23, a filament erupted near the southwest limb of the Sun. If it envelops the Earth, it would likely not happen until August 27, with a possible G1 class storm.

    Max White, M0VNG sent this about solar wind: https://bit.ly/3YQToa7[1]

    Reader Jeremy Gill of Seattle, WA contributed this article on aurora and the ionosphere: https://bit.ly/44sRGgh[2]  .

    Warnings about solar activity, some a bit shrill:

    https://bit.ly/3qHy6za[3]   https://bit.ly/3YLsoc[4] 

    https://bit.ly/3QNx8w3[5]   https://bit.ly/3OJRCTP[6]

    A new video from Tamitha Skov:  https://youtu.be/lU8s7RmlSfE[7]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]  . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11]  .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[12]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at:

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] .

    More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]
    .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for August 17 through 23, 2023 were 135, 112, 104, 93, 102, 96, and 99, with a mean of 105.9.  10.7 cm flux was 151.9, 150.6, 150.6, 146.3, 148.7, 150.9, and 147, with a mean of 149.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 11, 8, 11, 9, 8, and 4, with a mean of 8.4.  Middle latitude A index was 10, 14, 8, 12, 10, 12, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3YQToa7
    [2] https://bit.ly/44sRGgh
    [3] https://bit.ly/3qHy6za
    [4] https://bit.ly/3YLsoc
    [5] https://bit.ly/3QNx8w3
    [6] https://bit.ly/3OJRCTP
    [7] https://youtu.be/lU8s7RmlSfE
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 1 23:12:35 2023
    09/01/2023

    First, this alert from Australia.

    "ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0706UTC/31 AUGUST 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    A filament eruption and associated coronal mass ejection (CME) were observed on UT day 30-Aug. This CME is expected to impact Earth from 1800 UT +/- 12 hours on 02-Sep, with impacts possibly rolling into UT day 03-Sep. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected over this time, with a chance for periods of G3."

    Solar activity was down again this week, with average daily sunspot numbers dropping from 105.9 to 78.7, and average daily solar flux from 149.4 to 140.9.

    Only three sunspot groups appeared, one each on August 25, 28 and 30.

    But I have noticed a gradual transition from summer toward fall conditions, with 10 and 12 meter openings more frequent. The autumnal equinox is only three weeks from now.

    Geomagnetic indicators were a little lower. Average planetary A index went from 8.4 to 7, and average middle latitude numbers from 10.1 to 8.9.

    What is the outlook?

    Predicted solar flux shows a peak around 168 on September 18-21.

    Forecast values are 140 on September 1, then 150, 150 and 145 on September 2-4, 150 on September 5-9, 147 on September 10-11, then 145, 150, 155, 150, 155 and 160 on September 12-17, 168 on September 18-21, then 165, 160, and 148 on September 22-24, 150 on September 25-26, then 152, 150, 145,and 140 on September 27-30, then 145 on October 1, 150 on October 2-3, 152 on October 4, 156 on October 5-6, 150 on October 7. and 148 on October 8-9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 12 and 35 on September 1-3, then 15, 10 and 8 on September 4-6, 5 on September 7-13, then 12, 10, 10 and 8 on September 14-17, 5 on September 18-22, then 10, 10 and 8 on September 23-25, 5 on September 26 to October 2, then 10, 8 and 8 on October 3-5, and 5 on October 6-10.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for September 1-7, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "On 27 August, we predicted a rise in geomagnetic activity, triggered by the arrival of particles from the filament solar flares three days earlier. It did occur, but to a lesser extent than we expected. No significant solar flare (at least of M-class) was observed until 25 August, which is somewhat surprising for the current phase of Cycle 25 development.

    We did not see a major flare until August 26 at 2250 UTC, and it was an M1-class solar flare, hidden behind the Sun's eastern edge, but it was a long duration eruption (LDE). It was accompanied by a CME, which of course was not heading toward Earth, but in this case Mars (which it should hit on September 1).

    The coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on August 29 at about 1748 UTC near the coordinates N05W35. Another major solar flare, C3, was observed on August 30 with a maximum at 2334 UTC at AR 3413.

    Prior to that, a filament of solar plasma disappeared near S18W24 at 2015 UTC.

    Still, we expect only a slight increase in Earth's magnetic field activity in the next few days.

    Ionospheric propagation has varied erratically, with partial credit due to the sporadic E layer that occurred irregularly in Earth's northern hemisphere late this summer."

    India's solar mission:  https://bit.ly/3PiPJ1N[1]

    Flares:  https://bit.ly/47X6gzC[2]

    Four hours of Tamitha Skov and extreme space weather events:

    https://youtu.be/_Li9wxmmbQs[3]

    This weekend is the phone portion of the All Asia DX Contest:

    https://bit.ly/43GPrXq[4]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see:  

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[9]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11]  .

    Sunspot numbers for August 24 through 30, 2023 were 86, 77, 75, 69, 68, 82, and 94, with a mean of 78.7.  10.7 cm flux was 144.1, 138.9, 139.3, 141.5, 141.7, 142.2, and 138.6, with a mean of 140.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 5, 7, 11, 6, 5, and 6, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 7, 9, 13, 8, 7, and 9, with a mean of 8.9.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3PiPJ1N
    [2] https://bit.ly/47X6gzC
    [3] https://youtu.be/_Li9wxmmbQs
    [4] https://bit.ly/43GPrXq
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 8 15:28:08 2023
    09/08/2023

    At 0046 UTC on September 8, the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued this alert:

    "A solar filament erupted from the north east quadrant of the Sun on
    07-Sep. Event modeling shows an edge of the associated north east
    directed CME may graze the Earth's magnetosphere on 10-Sep.
    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOR 10 SEPTEMBER 2023."

    Eight new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on September 2, two
    on September 3, two more on September 4, and one each on September
    5-6, followed by another on Thursday, September 7.

    Average daily sunspot number was up, from 78.7 to 95.4, while
    average daily solar flux was less, from 140.9 to 137.6.

    Geomagnetic activity was higher. On September 2 the planetary A
    index was 38, when Earth moved through a high speed solar wind. In
    Alaska, the college A index at Fairbanks was 59.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 7 to 15.4, and
    average middle latitude A index rose from 8.9 to 16.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 155, 158 and 155 on September 8-10, 150 on
    September 11-16, then 155, 150, 155 and 150 on September 17-20, 145
    on September 21-22, 150 on September 23-24, 145 on September 25, 140
    on September 26-27, 135 on September 28-30, then 130, 135, 130 and
    135 on October 1-4, then 140 on October 5-6, then 135, 135 and 140
    on October 7-9, 145 on October 10-11, 150 on October 12-13, then
    155, 150, 155 and 150 on October 14-17.

    Predicted planetary A index 10 and 12 on September 8-9, 8 on
    September 10-13, then 5, 8, and 12 on September 14-16, 8 on
    September 17-18, 5 on September 19-22, 12 on September 23, 5 on
    September 24-27, then 8, 12, 5 and 12 on September 28 through
    October 1, then 12, 10, 12 and 10 on October 2-5, and 5 on October
    6-10, then 10, 8 and 12 on October 11-13, and 8 on October 14-15,
    and 5 over the following week.

    I observed interesting 12 meter propagation using FT8 on September
    4, at 1745 UTC with https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[1] in which my
    signal was only received over a narrow 300 mile band hugging the East
    Coast from Maine to Florida, all signal reports between 2200 to 2500
    miles away, nowhere else.

    Three hours later at 2045 UTC, the reports along the coast expanded
    to 600 miles, 2000 to 2600 miles wide.

    Later at 2300 UTC it was the same pattern, but a 200 mile band,
    2300-2500 miles wide.

    The next day at 1700 UTC it was an arc from Virginia to South Texas,
    1700 to 2300 miles. At 1715 UTC it drifted to coverage of 1750 to
    2600 miles.

    Before FT8 and pskreporter, there was no practical way for me to
    observe any of this. Who knew?

    Rick Cochran, WO8L wrote:

    "So, despite all of the indicators being pretty good, why are the
    bands so terrible?

    "In the nearly 60 years I've been a ham this Sun cycle has
    consistently been a dud compared to past cycles, especially during
    the day.

    "So many of us would like to know why."

    I replied:

    "Good question. You aren't the only one to ask."

    There is a theory that carbon in the atmosphere or a warming climate contributes to this, but I do not understand the mechanism. K9LA
    told me that models do not support this, but at the moment I cannot
    recall what those models are. This issue was discussed in previous
    bulletins.

    Another theory is that this is a perception issue related to the
    widespread adoption of FT8, in which users of traditional modes see
    less activity on CW and SSB and perceive poorer propagation as a
    result.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 7, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:
     
    "In late August, as AR3413 approached the northwestern limb of the
    solar disk, its eruptive activity began to increase, even though its
    size and magnetic configuration did not suggest it. However, we
    observed it at a very low angle, so we may have missed details.

    "Either way, it was the source of several C- and M-class flares, at
    least two of which (on August 30 and September 1) ejected CMEs. Both
    hit the Earth triggering a G2 class geomagnetic storm. For shortwave propagation, this meant a significant improvement and increase in
    MUF in the positive phase of the disturbance on 2 September
    0900-1300 UTC, followed by a deterioration for the next few days.

    "AR3413 meanwhile, continued with increased eruptive activity on the
    Sun's far side, including a massive CME on 5 September, but it no
    longer affected the Earth. It merely 'ripped off the tail' (a
    disconnection event) of comet Nishimura (C/2023 P1), which is
    approaching the Sun. Its closest approach will be on September 17.

    "A relative improvement in shortwave propagation did not occur until
    September 5, with a jump in solar wind speed at 1439 UTC. Meanwhile,
    active region AR3421 began to grow significantly around the central
    meridian.

    "The magnetic configuration points to the possibility of
    geoeffective flares. This was followed by the growth of other active
    regions in the northeast of the solar disk, so that solar activity
    remains elevated. Since we expect the Earth's magnetic field to calm
    down, shortwave propagation conditions should gradually improve.
    Seasonal changes as the equinoxes approach will also contribute to
    this."

    The Autumnal Equinox in the northern hemisphere is just two weeks
    away.

    Here is a solar cycle prediction:

    https://bit.ly/45Gxb1n[2]

    Nice video, once you get past the ads:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8nub71[3]

    A "Solar Orbiter EUI" video from Max White, M0VNG and the European
    Space Agency:

    https://bit.ly/44JG2hr[4]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

    Sunspot numbers for August 31 through September 6, 2023 were 77, 83,
    77, 79, 100, 121, and 131, with a mean of 95.4  10.7 cm flux was
    139.9, 135.8, 131.2, 130.5, 136, 142.9, and 147.1, with a mean of
    137.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 38, 25, 8, 11, and
    8, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 15, 25, 28,
    14, 14, and 10, with a mean of 16.3.


    [1] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [2] https://bit.ly/45Gxb1n
    [3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8nub71
    [4] https://bit.ly/44JG2hr
    [5] k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 15 13:42:38 2023
    09/15/2023

    Like last week, eight new sunspot groups emerged this reporting
    week, September 7-13.

    One appeared on September 7, another September 9, four more on
    September 10, another on September 11 and one more on September 12.

    Solar activity made a nice comeback, with average daily sunspot
    numbers rising from 95.4 to 138.1, and solar flux from 137.6 to
    159.9.

    The most active geomagnetic day was September 12, when the planetary
    A index was 25. Spaceweather.com reported a "stealth CME"
    (unexpected) that had aurora visible down as far as Missouri.

    Average daily planetary A index decreased from 15.4 to 10.4, and
    middle latitude numbers from 16.3 to 11.3.

    The Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere is just a week away,
    on September 22.

    It seems that the next sustained short term peak in solar flux is a
    few weeks off, with values between 150 and 155 over October 12-17,
    although it is expected to reach 150 on September 23-24.

    The forecast shows solar flux at 145, 148, 145 and 145 on September
    15-18, 140 on September 19-21, 145 on September 22, 150 on September
    23-24, 145 on September 25, 140 on September 26-27, 135 on September
    28-30, then 130, 135, 130 and 135 on October 1-4, 140 on October
    5-6, 135 on October 7-8, 140 on October 9, 145 on October 10-11, 150
    om October 12-13, then 155, 150, 155 and 150 on October 14-17, 145
    on October 18-19, and 150 on October 20-21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15 on September 15, 8 on September
    16-17, then 5, 5, and 10 on September 18-20, 5, 8 and 12 on
    September 21-23, 5 on September 24-27, then 8, 12 and 8 on September
    28-30, and 5 on October 1-8, then 15, 12, 10 and 8 on October 9-12,
    5 on October 13-19, 12 on October 20, and 5 on October 21-24.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 15-22, 2023 from OK1HH.
     
    "A week ago, the active sunspot group AR3414 dominated the solar
    disk. It is now on the far side of the Sun. This role has been taken
    over by AR3423, now approaching the western limb of the solar disk.
    It will be followed the next day by the slightly smaller AR3425. The
    important information is that we observe a coronal hole near both of
    them (closer to AR3425). This configuration was the likely cause of
    the surprise: Few people expected the Earth to be hit by a CME on
    September 12 at 1237 UT.

    "Then a massive disturbance of the Earth's magnetic field developed.
    Its initial positive phase increased the MUF values on September 12.
    This was followed by a negative phase, which in turn caused a
    significant decrease in MUF, with worsened shortwave propagation
    conditions on 13 September. This was followed by a gradual
    improvement on 14 September, when the magnetic filament connecting
    sunspots AR3423 and AR3425 erupted. The consequence could be a G1 to G2 class geomagnetic storm in the Earth's vicinity on 17 September."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote from Kansas:

    "Sunday afternoon and evening (September 10-11) strong sporadic-E on
    6 meters took place.

    "This set up links to TEP on to South America.

    "The hot spot seemed to be south Central Kansas and northeast
    Oklahoma. KF0M in EM17 worked many South American stations. From
    EM28, the Es was not lined up that well.

    "Had many strong stations in south Texas and northern Mexico.
    Around 2250 UTC LU1MQF (FF55) and CE4MBH (FF44) appeared for a few minutes on 50.313 MHz FT8.

    "Any sporadic-E is a treat in the September ARRL VHF contest (which
    was last weekend). With Solar Cycle 25 picking up, the Es can link
    to TEP."

    An article about the Sun from IFLScience:

    https://www.iflscience.com/has-part-of-the-sun-really-become-broken-70653
    [1]
    The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/S2IOBwSo_LI[2]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3] .When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[4]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 7 through 13, 2023 were 135, 123, 119,
    167, 173, 141, and 109, with a mean of 138.1.  10.7 cm flux was
    160.8, 160.9, 161.4, 163.9, 176.4, 153.5, and 142.6, with a mean of
    159.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 8, 4, 7, 25, and 17,
    with a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 11, 8, 12, 6, 8,
    17, and 17, with a mean of 11.3.

     


    [1] https://www.iflscience.com/has-part-of-the-sun-really-become-broken-70653 [2] https://youtu.be/S2IOBwSo_LI
    [3] k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 22 17:56:45 2023
    09/22/2023

    ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0249UTC on 22 SEPTEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE:

    "Solar wind streams from a pair of coronal holes are expected to
    mildly increase geomagnetic activity at times during the interval
    late 22-Sep to 24-Sep.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM 22-24 SEPTEMBER 2023."

    Nine new sunspot groups appeared this week, but the averages were
    lower.

    A new sunspot group appeared every day from September 15-17, four
    more on September 18, and one each day on September 19-20.

    On Thursday, the start of the next reporting week two more sunspot
    groups appeared.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 138.1 to 118.4, while
    average daily solar flux went from 159.9 to 149.3.

    The Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere occurs on Saturday,
    September 23 at 2:50 AM EDT, or 0650z.  The change in seasons has
    been evident recently with improving propagation on 10 and 12
    meters.

    A fast moving CME hit Earth on September 18, sparking dramatic
    displays of aurora across the northern tier of North America and in
    Europe as far south as France.

    Alaska's college A index was 49 and 61 on September 18-19, while the
    planetary A index was 30 and 49.

    Predicted solar flux is 162, 162 and 165 on September 22-24, 160 on
    September 25-28, 135 on September 29-30, then 130, 135, 130 and 135
    on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-6, 135 on October 7-8, then 140,
    145 and 145 on October 9-11, then 150, 150, 155 and 150 on October
    12-15, and 155, 150, 145 and 145 on October 16-19, then 150, 150 and
    145 on October 20-22, 140 on October 23-24, 135 on October 25-27,
    then 130, 135, 130 and 135 on October 28-31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15 on September 22, 22 on September
    23-24, then 12 and 8 on September 25-26, 5 on September 27-28, 12
    and 8 on September 29-30, 5 October 1-11, 8 on October 12, then 5 on
    October 13-19, 12 on October 20, 5 on October 21-24, then 8, 12 and
    8 on October 25-27, then 5 on October 28 into the first week of
    November.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 21, 2023 from OK1HH:
     
    "Although the site https://solarham.net/ [1]launched on March 15, 2006,
    created and still maintained solely by Kevin,VE3EN, is primarily
    intended for amateur radio users, it is also very well regarded by
    professional astronomers. In addition to information about the Sun,
    it contains everything needed to understand the causes of changes in
    the ionosphere, and also provides an overview and forecast of the
    Earth's magnetic field activity. On Thursday, September 21, we read:
    'Solar activity is predicted to remain at low (C-Flares) to moderate
    (M-Flares) levels during the next 24 hours. AR-3435 is considered
    the most likely region to produce a moderate to strong solar flare.'

    "The information can be supplemented by saying that the level of
    solar activity has been rising in recent days, and this rise was
    accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 400 km/s to over
    600 km/s between 18-20 September. In particular, the solar wind
    proton influx increased significantly on 18 September; moreover, a
    geomagnetic disturbance with intensity G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong)
    took place on 18-19 September.

    "The Earth's ionosphere responded to these events with a significant
    decrease in MUF, especially since 18 September. Shortwave conditions
    were above average for the last time on 10-12 September, including a
    positive phase of the disturbance on the latter day. Around the
    equinox we usually expect improvement, but now it was the opposite
    as a result of disturbances.

    "As another very good source of information, I can particularly
    recommend the Space Weather Monitor (https://www.ionosonde.iap-kborn.de/actuellz.htm[2]), as it also
    contains the most important data on the Earth's ionosphere."

    From reader David Moore, on Parker Solar Probe:

    https://bit.ly/3ELWC5E[3]

    More Parker Solar Probe news:

    https://bit.ly/3EOVEpl[4]

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 14 through 20, 2023 were 110, 96, 88,
    94, 139, 143, and 159, with a mean of 118.4.  10.7 cm flux was
    145.2, 139.1, 140.4, 144.6, 154.5, 166.1, and 155.5, with a mean of
    149.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 7, 7, 16, 30, 49, and
    16, with a mean of 20.4. Middle latitude A index was 13, 7, 5, 14,
    21, 38, and 15, with a mean of 18.1.

     


    [1] https://solarham.net/
    [2] https://www.ionosonde.iap-kborn.de/actuellz.htm
    [3] https://bit.ly/3ELWC5E
    [4] https://bit.ly/3EOVEpl
    [5] https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 29 17:10:34 2023
    09/29/2023

    Solar activity was up for this reporting week, September 21-27.
    Eight new sunspot groups appeared, two on September 21, two more on
    September 22, two more on September 25, another on September 26 and
    another on September 27.

    The average daily sunspot number jumped from 118.4 to 170.6, while
    average daily solar flux went from 149.3 to 168.8.

    The Autumnal Equinox was last weekend in the Northern Hemisphere, so
    our Earth is bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation in both
    hemispheres.

    The average daily planetary A index went from 20.4 to 17, while
    middle latitude numbers changed from 18.1 to 13.7. Thursday had the
    strongest geomagnetic activity, and Alaska's college A index was 68,
    triggering a geomagnetic storm with aurora visible across the
    northern tier of the United States. Activity peaked around 1200-1800
    UTC, with planetary K index at 5.33.

    Regarding solar flux predictions, the next predicted peak is at 168
    on October 20-23.

    Predicted flux values are 148 on September 29-30, then 145, 143 and
    145 on October 1-3, 148 on October 4-5, 155 on October 6, 160 on
    October 7-8, 155 on October 9, 150 on October 10-11, 145 on October
    12-14, then 150, 155, 155, 160 and 165 on October 15-19, 168 on
    October 20-23, then 164, 160, 160, 168 and 150 on October 24-28,
    then 145 and 150 on October 29-30, 155 on  October 31 through
    November 2, 160 on November 3-4, and 155 on November 5.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12, and 8 on September 29 through
    October 1, then 8, 15, 12, 8 and 15, on October 2-5, then 5 on
    October 6-21, then 10 and 8 on October 22-23, and 5 on October 24
    through November 7, and 55 on November 8.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 27, 2023 from OK1HH:
     
    "During September we saw nearly regular fluctuations in solar and
    geomagnetic activity. M-class flares occurred nearly every day, some accompanied by plasma eruptions (CMEs). On 24-25 September, the
    fourth and strongest solar-origin proton cloud (G3) of the month
    struck Earth.

    "With such a large number of disturbances, each lasting several
    days, there was a significant decrease in MUF and a general
    deterioration of shortwave propagation (September 3-5, 13-15, 18-20
    and since 25 September).

    "After these disturbances, due to the high solar activity,
    relatively rapid improvements followed, the best of which was
    observed from 10 September onward. It culminated in a positive phase
    of disturbance during the daytime hours of UTC on 12 September, with
    the highest MUF values, and thus the best opening of the upper
    shortwave bands. This also made the following deterioration, which
    started already on the night of 13 September, even more noticeable.

    "Given the number and duration of disturbances and despite several improvements, overall propagation was below average. This pattern
    began in August and given the trend in solar activity, looks set to
    continue for the time being."

    Gregory Andracke, W2BEE sent these two articles about Aurora
    Borealis:

    https://nbcnews.to/3PUVH9q[1]

    https://bbc.in/3PQLhrj[2]

    Check out his web site:

    http://www.andracke.com/[3]

    Here are more articles and videos about aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3PEnsl4[4]

    https://bit.ly/3PU22Sy[5]

    https://bit.ly/48ASMtK[6]

    https://bit.ly/46w7CzQ[7]

    https://bit.ly/3PXAGuX[8]

    https://bit.ly/48A6Kfk[9]

    https://bit.ly/3PBgE7V[10]

    https://bit.ly/3PzOJFw[11]

    https://bit.ly/469xDFw[12]

    https://bit.ly/3rvgRBA[13]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[14]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 21 through 27, 2023 were 159, 184,
    198, 172, 164, 179, and 138, with a mean of 170.6. 10.7 cm flux was
    168.1, 175.7, 173, 173.7, 170.2, 164.9, and 156, with a mean of
    168.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 10, 21, 23, 32, and
    15, with a mean of 17. Middle latitude A index was 10, 7, 9, 17, 15,
    26, and 12, with a mean of 13.7.

     


    [1] https://nbcnews.to/3PUVH9q
    [2] https://bbc.in/3PQLhrj
    [3] http://www.andracke.com/
    [4] https://bit.ly/3PEnsl4
    [5] https://bit.ly/3PU22Sy
    [6] https://bit.ly/48ASMtK
    [7] https://bit.ly/46w7CzQ
    [8] https://bit.ly/3PXAGuX
    [9] https://bit.ly/48A6Kfk
    [10] https://bit.ly/3PBgE7V
    [11] https://bit.ly/3PzOJFw
    [12] https://bit.ly/469xDFw
    [13] https://bit.ly/3rvgRBA
    [14] k7ra@arrl.net
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] http://k9la.us/
    [17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 6 23:30:25 2023
    10/06/2023

    At 2308 UTC on October 5, the Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

    "A recent, mild CME impact, combined with the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream on 7 Oct, gives the chance for G1 geomagnetic conditions over 6 and 7 Oct."

    Seven new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, but overall solar activity declined.

    With consecutive dates you can initiate an animation using the back and forward buttons on your browser.

    We are currently enjoying improved HF propagation with the change of seasons after the autumnal equinox.  This is particularly noticeable on 12 and 10 meters.

    Here is an optimistic news story about the current solar cycle.

    https://cdapress.com/news/2023/oct/02/were-strong-solar-cycle/[1]

    https://bit.ly/3RMPjT1[2]

    One new sunspot group appeared on September 30, three more on October 1, and one on each of the following days, October 2, 3 and 4.  On October 5, two more sunspot groups appeared, and the daily sunspot number shot up to 179, the highest since September 26. Previously, a high of 219 was on July 12.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 170.6 to 128.6, while average daily solar flux went from 168.8 to 155.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter.  Average daily planetary A index went from 17 to 9.1, and average daily middle latitude A index declined from 13.7 to 8.9.

    The outlook for the next month has predicted solar flux at 158 on October 6 and 7, 155, 152, 152, 150 and 145 on October 8 to 12, 158 on October 13 and 14, 156 on October 15 to 17, 154 on October 18 to 20, 152 on October 21, 154 on October 22 and 23, 156 and 158 on October 24 and 25, 160 on October 26 to 28, 162 on October 29 to 31, then 164 on November 1 to 3, 168 on November 4, 165 on November 5 and 6, 162 and 160 on November 7 and 8, 158 on November 9 and 10, and 156 on November 11 to 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 25, 10 and 5 on October 6 to 9, 8 on October 10 and 11, 5 on October 12 to 21, then 10 and 8 on October 22 to 23, 5 on October 24 to 28, then 15, 12, 8, 15 and 8 on October 29 through November 2, and 5 on November 3 through the middle of the month.

    Flares in the news:

    https://bit.ly/46AiGMs[3]

    https://bit.ly/3PG9MX3[4]

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere -- October 5, 2023 from Frantisek K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "After witnessing a number of solar flares (though at most of moderate magnitude) during the past month, plus three solar plasma cloud impacts (CMEs), late September and early October, which were a bit quieter.

    However, the development of solar and especially geomagnetic activity was so irregular that it was difficult to make predictions for the following days.
    The geomagnetic calm on 28 September did not mean an improvement in shortwave propagation conditions, but rather a deterioration compared to the previous day, which was not calm.  The improvement on 2 and 3 October was the result of a relative calm with non-declining solar activity.

    Subsequent developments were mostly quieter.  Nevertheless, there were significant fluctuations in MUF on 4 October with a slight deterioration.  The explanation for the causes can be found mainly in the timing of the overall development.  Specifically, deterioration often occurred after geomagnetic activity increased overnight.  In addition, sporadic layer E activity increased at times (especially on 4-5 October).  There was also a slight increase in the concentration of protons in the solar wind on 3 October and especially still on 5 October.

    Irregular propagation conditions can be expected to continue, yet there should already be less of a difference between expectations and actual developments in October than there was in September."

    W2BEE sent this about aurora: https://bit.ly/3ZHLUGU[5]

    Time lapse animation of sunspot:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8ofnhg[6]

    Max White M0VNG sent this, about the solar atmosphere:

    https://bit.ly/3ZJydau[7]

    Check these links for the upcoming HamSCI propagation tests during upcoming solar eclipses, the first on October 14, 2023:

    https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse[8]

    http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLX013/2023[9]

    New report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/_eWJ8THt3pM[10]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive- propagation  .  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12]

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14]

    Sunspot numbers for September 28 through October 4, 2023 were 109, 102, 106, 136, 146, 150, and 151, with a mean of 128.6.  10.7 cm flux was 147.8, 155, 159.1, 161.1, 157.4, 153.7, and 155, with a mean of 155.6.  Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 10, 9, 9, 8, and 10, with a mean of 9.1.  Middle latitude A index was 5, 13, 11, 9, 10, 6, and 8, with a mean of 8.9.


    [1] https://cdapress.com/news/2023/oct/02/were-strong-solar-cycle/
    [2] https://bit.ly/3RMPjT1
    [3] https://bit.ly/46AiGMs
    [4] https://bit.ly/3PG9MX3
    [5] https://bit.ly/3ZHLUGU
    [6] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8ofnhg
    [7] https://bit.ly/3ZJydau
    [8] https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLX013/2023
    [10] https://youtu.be/_eWJ8THt3pM
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 13 13:52:53 2023
    10/13/2023

    The numbers looked better during this reporting week, October 5-11.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 128.6 to 144.1, and average
    solar flux from 155.6 to 159.1.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 7.6, and average
    middle latitude A index from 8.9 to 8.3.

    For some reason the middle latitude numbers were not available from Fredericksburg, Virginia so we used the data from Boulder, Colorado.

    Nine new sunspot groups emerged this week, with two on October 5,
    one on October 7, two on October 8, one on October 9, another on
    October 10, and two more on October 11.

    HF conditions have been excellent, as the season turns deeper into
    Autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. I really notice a difference on
    10, 12 and 15 meters.

    Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 13, 155 on October 14-16, 152
    on October 17-18, then 150, 148, 150 and 152 on October 19-22, 152
    on October 23-24, 158 on October 25, 160 on October 26-28, 158 on
    October 29-30, 156 on October 31 through November 1, then 155, 156,
    156, 158 and 160 on November 2-6, 158 on November 7-8, then 156 on
    November 9-10, then 155, 154, 152 and 150 on November 11-14, 148 on
    November 15-16, then 150, 152, 154 and 154 on November 17-20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10, 8, 5, 12, 10 and 8 on October
    13-19, 5 on October 20-30, 15 and 12 on October 31 through November
    1, 5 on November 2-5, then 10, 8, and 10 on November 6-8, 15 on
    November 9-10, then 8 on November 11, and 5 on November 12 to the
    end of the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere October 13-19, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Unlike most days in September, the Earth's geomagnetic activity has
    finally dropped. Solar activity is high enough that there was a
    significant improvement in shortwave propagation on a global scale.

    "Around October 7, although there was still a possibility that Earth
    would be hit by a CME that left the Sun on October 3, it did not
    happen. Whereupon, especially on quiet days in the middle of this
    week, the improvement was unmistakable.

    "Two or three sunspot groups continue to be observed on the Sun.
    They are able to produce up to moderate intensity flares. But the
    area of the spots is not large, so we do not expect a CME based on
    their magnetic configuration either.

    "Thanks to helioseismology, we know of more extensive active regions
    on the far side of the Sun. Therefore, it is safe to assume that
    solar activity will be elevated for the rest of October. Which of
    course brings with it possible increases in solar wind speeds with
    higher particle concentrations, but this is not enough to predict a disturbance, only to vaguely state the possibility of one."

    Dan, K7SS wrote:

    "Just an FYI to those of us who may know anyone new to HF, and the
    fact that 10m seems to be at a fantastic peak of conditions
    recently, it would be a great shame for anyone who is new to HF to
    miss this peak (or pre-peak?) with 10m so open during the daylight
    and well into the evening darkness. Just recall the thrill of DX you
    had early on.

    "Would like to encourage everyone [in the club] to think about who
    they might know that's pretty new and give a gentle prod to get them
    on 10m. Even with a minimal antenna and power, the band is
    supporting signals around the world right now. This may be our peak,
    or perhaps this is a bellwether of things to come and may get even
    better, but maybe not!

    "If any tech licensee can get on 10m with even a minimal signal, it
    will not disappoint. 28300 to 28500 kHz is theirs, and the
    playground is full. And no place better to get the DX BUG than by
    working some EU with low power and a small wire or vertical antenna.
    NOW IS THE TIME.

    "You don't want to have to explain in a year or two from now, that
    they SHOULD have been on working DX and if not, may have to wait for
    another cycle peak in 12-14 years.

    "Personally, I'm having the time of my life with EU openings in the
    morning around 10AM-12PM local. The THRILL IS BACK! 10m Lives."

    An article about a 15,000 year history of extreme solar events:

    https://bit.ly/3FctowT[1]

    Commercial space companies approach their first solar maximum:

    https://bit.ly/46Cx6Ma[2]

    Korean records from the 14th to 19th centuries reveal sunspot cycle
    history:

    https://bit.ly/3ZUo2Af[3]

    Safely watch the eclipse with a disco ball. (I do not know if this
    is actually safe):

    https://bit.ly/3tBhgmz[4]

    Articles about the "Ring of Fire" solar eclipse:

    https://wapo.st/3rNEHIY[5]

    https://bit.ly/3FeOQSc[6]

    An article about the Sun's polarity flip:

    https://bit.ly/3LWZ7WF[7]

    Video about Sunspot AR3038:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oratl[8]

    Optimistic outlook on Aurora:

    https://bit.ly/46tIOcb[9]

    Don't forget the eclipse event this Saturday, October 14:

    www.hamsci.org/eclipse[10]

    And at the last minute Thursday night, a new video from Dr. Tamitha
    Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/iwp-M_i-TMw[11]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 5 through 11, 2023 were 179, 138, 145,
    149, 129, 120, and 149, with a mean of 144.1. 10.7 cm flux was
    156.1, 155.3, 157.2, 157.1, 165.5, 164.4, and 158, with a mean of
    159.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 9, 5, 7, 8, 4, and 4,
    with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 17, 8, 4, 10, 9, 6,
    and 4, with a mean of 8.3.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3FctowT
    [2] https://bit.ly/46Cx6Ma
    [3] https://bit.ly/3ZUo2Af
    [4] https://bit.ly/3tBhgmz
    [5] https://wapo.st/3rNEHIY
    [6] https://bit.ly/3FeOQSc
    [7] https://bit.ly/3LWZ7WF
    [8] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oratl
    [9] https://bit.ly/46tIOcb
    [10] https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse
    [11] https://youtu.be/iwp-M_i-TMw
    [12] k7ra@arrl.net
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 20 17:15:31 2023
    10/20/2023

    Sunspot activity dropped dramatically this week, with only two new
    sunspot groups emerging, on October 14 and 16.

    Compared to last week, the average daily sunspot number slipped from
    144.1 to 89.4, and average daily solar flux from 159.1 to 145.1.

    Average daily planetary A index changed from 7.6 to 6.4, and average
    daily middle latitude A index from 8.3 to 5.

    Predicted solar flux is 128 and 130 October 20-21, 132 on October
    22-23, 134 on October 24-25, 136 on October 26, 145 on October
    27-28, 150 on October 29 through November 5, 140 on November 6-9,
    135 on November 10-11, 145 and 140 on November 12-13, 135 on
    November 14-15, then 140 on November 16-18, 135 and 140 on November
    19-20, 145 on November 21-24, and 150 through the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22, 14, 12, 10 and 8 on October
    20-24, 5 on October 25-26, 8 on October 27-30, 10 and 12 on October
    31 through November 1, 5 on November 2-8, 12 and 8 on November 9-10,
    5 on November 11-12, 12 on November 13-14, then 10 and 8 on November
    15-16, 5 on November 17-22, and 8 on November 23-26.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - October 19, 2023 from OK1HH:
     
    "In the last ten days, the number of sunspot groups has dropped from
    ten to three. At the same time the solar flux has dropped
    significantly - from 166 to 135. The last two slightly larger solar
    flares were observed on 16 October. The larger of the two occurred
    in AR3467. The magnetic filament associated with it exploded and
    blew a CME into space.

    "According to NASA's models, while it didn't head directly for
    Earth, it still likely hit it on October 18 (the original estimate
    was that it would happen a day later). Which, while not enough to
    cause a geomagnetic storm, was enough to reach an 'unsettled' state.

    "This was followed by an erratic MUF from 18 October and then a
    decline on 19 October. These lines are written at a time when short
    periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are not yet ruled out on 19
    October, with a possible duration into the first half of 20 October
    UT.

    "A return of larger sunspots and a rise in solar flux towards 150
    can be expected by the end of the month."

    Regarding 10 meter comments by K7SS in last week's Propagation
    Forecast bulletin, Angel Santana, WP3GW of Trujillo-Alto, Puerto
    Rico responded, "I second Dan's, K7SS comments on getting on the air
    even if you are a Tech on 10 meters.

    "I can attest that the band is in good shape: Can contact European
    stations with ease even if my antenna is pointing to the US and when
    it is 2pm local can still contact them when they are at their local
    8-10 pm.

    "My score in contests recently reflect more QSOs on 10 meters and
    now that we are in contest season it is a great opportunity to get
    on the air and see how many countries you can work.

    "You can also check and hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz as of late
    confirming that the band is truly live. And of course, the FM
    (29-29.8 MHz) segment."

    Dr. Julio Medina, NP3CW wrote:

    "Sending some information of activity in 6M band since May to
    October 2023.

    "Been copying stations from Japan, China, Africa, and many others
    such as Philippines on FT8 early in the morning from 1200-1400 UTC
    in FT8 in the 6m band."

    Jon, N0JK wrote on October 6:

    "The 6 meter sporadic-E - linking to TEP (trans equatorial
    propagation) openings usually occur in the afternoon. But there was
    a late evening Es -- TEP opening on October 6.

    "Earlier in the afternoon October 6 I had some weak TEP from South
    America to Kansas.  It faded out around 0030 UTC. Then some
    sporadic-E took place. Sporadic-E is rare in October, the only month
    with less Es is March. That itself is noteworthy, and I logged
    stations in Arizona and northern Mexico starting at 0100 UTC October
    7 on 6 meter FT8. Then at 0133 UTC I began seeing a FT8 trace at
    2,500 Hz. Then it decoded, and was Dale, CE2SV (FF47) sending a
    report to W0SZ in Colorado. When they finished, I called CE2SV.
    After a couple of calls Dale came back and we completed a contact at
    0136 UTC. His signal varied from -10 dB to -17 dB.

    "What is remarkable is I was operating from home using just an attic
    dipole for an antenna. I also decoded CE3SOC and XQ3MCC. N0LL in
    EM09 also worked some South American stations. This was 'evening'
    TEP, which typically has a shorter range than afternoon TEP. The
    evening TEP signals usually have a distinctive 'TEP flutter' sound
    and sometimes don't decode with FT8.  Q65 can be a better digital
    mode for evening TEP.

    "I saw on the ON4KST 6 meter chat page N9PGG in North Carolina
    worked FK8HA and VK4 stations. This was a sporadic-E link (on the
    same Es I had to the south) out to the South Pacific.

    "On another note -- stations in Central America, the Caribbean and
    northern South America have been making 6 meter Long Path contacts
    with east Asia and Malaysia from 1200 - 1600 UTC the last couple of
    mornings.

    "6 meter long path is best with high solar flux and low geomagnetic
    activity.

    "2023-10-07 15:16 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0MZI (OI33JQ) LoTW eQSL 18626 km         
    "2023-10-07 15:00 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0SAS (OI33JS) LoTW eQSL 18623 km          
    "2023-10-07 14:54 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0COU (OI33IU) LoTW eQSL 18611 km          
    "2023-10-07 14:52 JA6GNL (PM53GO) 50.310.0 FT8 PJ4MM (FK52VE) LoTW 14545 km

    "FT8 CQ AS:

    "2023-10-07 14:38 PJ4MM (FK52VE) 50.313.0 FT8 4W/JH2EUV (PI21) LoTW 18502 km +12"

    A video about predicting Solar Flares (Helioseismology):

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxp24[1]

    A video about a Class X2 flare:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxpu2[2]

    A video about a Cannibal CME:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oumkk[3]

    A report about Solar Cycle history:

    https://bit.ly/3FpTqwN[4]
     
    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/8xHnsvBFTgE[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 12 through 18, 2023 were 126, 91, 100,
    92, 106, 57, and 54, with a mean of 89.4. 10.7 cm flux was 157.1,
    149, 148.2, 144.6, 144, 137.3, and 135.3, with a mean of 145.1.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 13, 8, 4, 4, 3, and 9, with a
    mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 11, 6, 2, 3, 2, and 8,
    with a mean of 5.

     


    [1] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxp24
    [2] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxpu2
    [3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oumkk
    [4] https://bit.ly/3FpTqwN
    [5] https://youtu.be/8xHnsvBFTgE
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 27 18:28:45 2023
    10/27/2023

    The recent solar activity decline continues. Weekly average daily
    sunspot numbers starting with Propagation Forecast bulletin ARLP039
    on September 21 were 170.6, 128.6, 144.1, 89.4, and 41.9 for this
    week.

    Weekly average daily solar flux for the same period was 168.8,
    155.6, 159.1, 145.1 and 123.5.

    On October 25 Spaceweather.com[1] noted "Solar Cycle 25 roared to life
    in 2021-23, dashing predictions of a weak solar cycle. Forecasters
    have since been expecting a robust Solar Max in 2024 or 2025.
    Suddenly, however, sunspot counts are dropping."

    But they note that in strong sunspot cycles temporary lulls are
    common, and strong activity should resume soon, with a cycle peak
    within the next two years.

    Forecasters provided a recent link to NOAA:

    https://bit.ly/3FyVWko[2]

    The next day they wrote, "NOAA has just issued a revised forecast
    for Solar Cycle 25. Solar Max is coming quicker and stronger than
    previously thought."

    From NOAA:

    https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update[3]

    Three new sunspot groups appeared this week over October 20-22.

    What is the outlook for the next month?

    Predicted solar flux is 126 on October 27-28, 130 on October 29-30,
    132 on October 31, 134 on November 1-2, 150 on November 3-5, 140 on
    November 6-9, 135 on November 10-11, then 145, 140, 135 and 135 on
    November 12-15, 140 on November 16-18, then 135 and 140 on November 19-20, and 145 on November 21-24, and 150 on November 25 through December 2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 16, 8, 5, 20, 18 and 8 on October 27
    through November 1,  then 5 on November 2-8, then 12 and 8 on
    November 9-10, 5 on November 11-12, 12 on November 13-14, 10 and 8
    on November 15-16, 5 on November 17-22, then 8 on November 23-26,
    and 10 and 12 on November 27-28, and 5 on November 29 through
    December 5.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere from F.K. Janda, OK1HH on October 26, 2023.

    "In the last seven days we observed two surprises. For the first
    time, after the solar flare of 16 October, we saw a geomagnetic
    disturbance on 19 October. But it started on October 18 and
    continued to October 20.

    "Solar activity gradually decreased, M-class flares ceased, and only
    isolated C-class flares continued. By October 23 only two or three
    small groups of spots remained on the solar disk.

    "On October 21, the Earth's magnetic field activity briefly
    increased, which, together with a multi-day decrease in solar
    radiation, caused low MUF values and thus shorter intervals of upper
    shortwave band openings.

    "The geomagnetically quiet development on 22-25 October caused only
    a gradual improvement in shortwave propagation conditions. In
    addition, the daily MUF values were relatively very low.

    "Then, on the 26th, the Earth's magnetic field activity increased.
    Positive phase of disturbance started in the daytime UT, accompanied
    by an increase in MUF (with a maximum around 1300 UT).

    "I don't expect any significant rise in solar activity in October.
    It is indeed forecast for November, but even the STEREO satellites,
    in service for 10 years, have not yet observed more interesting
    activity."

    N0JK wrote:

    "The weekend of Oct 20-22 had some outstanding propagation on 6
    meters.

    "Saturday afternoon October 21 there were Es links to TEP
    (Trans-Equatorial Propagation) on toward the South Pacific from the
    Midwest. N0LL copied FK8CP and ZL1RS on just a hamstick vertical
    while driving from Salina to his home in Smith Center, Kansas. He
    later worked E51WL from his home around 2130 UTC.

    "I was staying at the La Quinta Inn in Scottsdale for the weekend.
    Had my MFJ-9406 along and used a dipole antenna in the hotel room. I
    copied N0LL in EM09, N0KQY in DM98 and N0OT in DM88 on 6 meter Es
    calling DX stations around 1945 UTC. Es in October are rare, and Es
    links rarer still.

    "Later that evening I managed to work W5JAY in EM26 on 6m FT8 via Es
    at 0136 UTC October 22. Power was 7 watts to the indoor dipole. East
    coast stations were working the South Pacific on Es links to TEP.

    "That next afternoon Arizona had Es - link to TEP to South America.
    I copied XE1H in DL80 at the first Es hop.

    "At 2333 UTC on October 22 on 50.313 Rx FT8 copied XE1H in DL80
    calling CQ.

    "October 24 at 2335 UTC copied PY5CC in GG54 via Es link to TEP.

    "Spaceweather.com[4] noted a CME impact October 20. The active
    geomagnetic field boosted the TEP MUF and may have sparked some of
    the sporadic-E as well.

    "73, Jon, N0JK in DM43 (usually EM28)."

    From Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania.

    "Two New Continents on 10 meters 29.600 FM.

    "The upper end of the 10 meter band (29.600 FM) is still kind of
    rough, but on Wednesday, October 18th, 1752 UTC I worked Naama, S01A (Sierra-Zero-One-Alpha) in Western Sahara, Africa, grid IL56hb, RS:
    5x9+ peak both ways. Distance 3607 miles.
     
    "His QRZ page:  https://www.qrz.com/db/S01A[5]

    "Then on Monday, October 23rd, 2206 UTC worked Hirobumi, JF7AWV in
    Kouriyama, Japan, grid PM95vq calling CQ, went back to his call and
    he heard me RS: 5x5, he was a RS: 3x3 moderate QSB. Distance 6502
    miles.
     
    "Just a reminder to operators, please use the ITU Phonetic Alphabet.
    It makes picking out your callsign much more rapidly with less
    confusion under weak propagation conditions.

    "Equipment: Kenwood TS-690S, 80 watts, Cushcraft 10-Meter Ringo 5/8
    wave vertical 10 feet off ground."

    And I have a reminder to FM operators on 29.6 MHz.

    This is the national simplex calling frequency and gets quite busy.
    When making contact, I ask the other station to QSY to a simplex
    frequency, such as 29.2 MHz. [K7RA]

    Latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/vJ2yz7ZHSj8[6]

    Note that this weekend is the SSB portion of the CQ World Wide DX
    Contest.

    See https://www.cqww.com/[7] .

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[11]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 19 through 25, 2023 were 39, 56, 65, 48,
    25, 34, and 26, with a mean of 41.9. 10.7 cm flux was 128.7, 125.7,
    122.6, 118.8, 122.1, 121.1, and 125.8, with a mean of 123.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 22, 8, 3, 4, and 4, with a
    mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 8, 13, 7, 2, 2, and 3,
    with a mean of 6.1.

     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/3FyVWko
    [3] https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update
    [4] http://Spaceweather.com
    [5] https://www.qrz.com/db/S01A
    [6] https://youtu.be/vJ2yz7ZHSj8
    [7] https://www.cqww.com/
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 3 17:42:37 2023
    11/03/2023

    "GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2333 UTC on 02 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "A possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 31-Oct
    combined with a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 2-Nov
    is expected to produce a chance of G1 geomagnetic activity on 4-Nov
    and G0-G1 activity on 5-Nov."

    Seven new sunspot groups emerged in this reporting week, October 26
    through November 1. Two on October 26, one on October 27, another on
    October 28, two more on October 31 and another on November 1. One
    more appeared on November 2.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 41.9 to 76.7, while average
    daily solar flux increased from 123.5 to 137.5.

    Predicted solar flux is 158, 160, 162, 158 and 155 on November 3-7,
    150 on November 8-9, 148, 136, and 134 on November 10-12, 130 on
    November 13-15, then 125, 123, and 120 on November 16-18, then 125
    on November 19-22, and 130 on November 23-26, then 132 on November
    27, 134 on November 28-29, 136 on November 30 through December 2,
    140 and 138 on December 3-4, 136 on December 5-6, then 138. 136 and
    134 on December 7-9 and 130 on December 10-12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 8 and 5 on November 3-7, 12
    on November 8-9, 8 on November 10, 5 on November 11-13, then 8 and
    10 on November 14-15, 5 on November 16-21, then 15, 10, 15, 15, 20,
    15 and 8 on November 22-28, 5 on November 29 through December 5,
    then 12 and 8 on December 6-7 and 5 on December 8-10.

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - November 03, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The coronal hole we saw in the northwest of the solar disk has
    already fallen beyond its limb. Now we're looking at another fairly
    large coronal hole in the southeast. At the same time, both sunspot
    and flare activity decreased in the west and increased in the east. Fortunately, the solar wind from the eastern half of the disk rarely
    reaches the Earth's neighborhood. Therefore, the frequency of
    geomagnetic disturbances is lower.

    "This is valid for most days in the first half of November. As the
    solar activity could also increase, we can expect more stable and
    overall, slightly better shortwave propagation. After that, however,
    the solar flux will gradually return from 160 perhaps to somewhere
    near 120. Therefore, MUF values will begin to slowly decline.

    "As long as the coronal hole remains stable and persists in the
    solar disk after passing through the central meridian, disturbances
    will become more frequent. Therefore, shortwave propagation will
    gradually deteriorate, but no reliable forecast can be made very far
    ahead."

    From Dave, N4KZ in Frankfort, Kentucky, EM78:

    "At 1545 UTC on October 7, I experienced the thrill of a lifetime
    when 3B9FR, Robert on Rodrigues Island in the Indian Ocean, answered
    my CQ on 6-meter FT8. I had already worked 3B9FR 10 times over the
    last 20 years on CW, SSB and FT8 on various HF bands but I never
    anticipated working him on 6 meters.

    "The morning began when I worked HC5VF at 1534 UTC with a very
    strong signal. Hearing nothing else from the south, I turned my Yagi
    toward Europe hoping perhaps someone there would decode my CQ. After
    six unsuccessful CQs, Robert called me. I took a screenshot of our
    QSO. I plan to have it framed for the shack wall. According to his
    QRZ.com page, Robert runs 75 watts to a new 6-element quad on 6
    meters. I was running 250 watts to a 3-element Yagi at 60 feet.

    "On October 23, from 2059 to 2359 UTC, I worked 18 South Americans
    on 6-meter FT8. Stations worked were in Argentina, Uruguay and
    Brazil. Then the band changed around to the Pacific and for the
    first time in some 30 years on 6 meters, I copied stations in
    Australia. I decoded five stations in VK4, two in New Caledonia and
    3D2AG in Fiji. Sadly, despite numerous calls, I did not work anyone
    in the Pacific that day. But it was still a thrill to hear those
    entities for the first time on 6 meters. And of course, the QSO into
    the Indian Ocean, at a distance greater than 10,000 miles, made up
    for it.

    "I was very active on 2-meter SSB and CW from the mid-1970s until
    about 2010 when I grew bored and took down my 2-meter Yagi. Earlier
    this year, I felt the urge to return to the low end of 2 meters.
    This time, FT8 seems to mostly have replaced SSB and CW for
    weak-signal work. Since June 28, I have worked 30 states and 102
    grid squares with my new 13-element Yagi.

    "The big five-day tropo opening in August produced more than 160
    QSOs from Colorado to Connecticut. In the middle of the afternoon
    toward the end of that August opening, I decoded both ends of a QSO
    between WQ0P in KS and W1VD in CT, I had worked both of them
    earlier, but it was really something to watch them working over
    about a 1,500 mile path."

    From Bob, KB1DK:

    "Conditions on 10 meters were fair for the CQWW SSB contest this
    past weekend. While propagation was good from Connecticut to the
    Middle East, south and central Europe, signals from Scandinavia, and north/central Russia were barely readable. This was in sharp
    contrast to the conditions on the weekend of October 14th when I
    worked 45 stations with strong signals in the Scandinavia Contest on
    Saturday morning.

    "On October 15th, I operated mobile for the first time. Using an old
    Kenwood TS-570 and a quarter wave vertical magnetically mounted on
    the roof, I logged 28 QSOs in 2 hours including South Africa,
    Greece, South Russia and Scandinavia with respectable reports from a
    fixed hilltop location. It was well worth the effort to wire up the
    car. I did not want to miss out on the great propagation on 10
    meters, especially after the conditions this past spring and last
    fall.

    "If you have an old rig, consider investing for a magnetic mount and
    a 10 meter whip. You won't be disappointed. My next operating
    location will be from the beach on Long Island Sound.

    "All the best from the east coast."

    K7SS reported to the Western Washington DX Club that he worked 10
    meters only in the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest, with 643 QSOs in 28
    zones and 75 countries for a claimed score of 177,984 points.

    Articles about an early peak of Solar Cycle 25:

    https://bit.ly/3FF26jh[1]

    https://bit.ly/40ndQQN[2]

    https://bit.ly/45REtys[3]

    Trailblazing female astronomers, one is Mrs. Annie Maunder:

    https://bit.ly/478EfEo[4]

    New video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/M4VBAuSpVZc[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1, 2023 were 57, 66,
    70, 61, 62, 116, and 105, with a mean of 76.7. 10.7 cm flux was
    126.4, 127.5, 128, 135.2, 139.7, 147.3, and 158.6, with a mean of
    137.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 11, 19, 28, 12, 9, and
    9, with a mean of 15.9. Middle latitude A index was 18, 9, 13, 21,
    10, 6, and 6, with a mean of 11.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3FF26jh
    [2] https://bit.ly/40ndQQN
    [3] https://bit.ly/45REtys
    [4] https://bit.ly/478EfEo
    [5] https://youtu.be/M4VBAuSpVZc
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Dec 2 15:41:04 2023
    11/14/2023

    "ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2310 UTC/09 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE:

    "G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-12 Nov, with a
    slight chance of G3 due to the anticipated arrival of a halo CME
    first observed 09-Nov. Conditions are expected to ease to background
    levels on 13-Nov."

    A great, big geomagnetic storm on Sunday disrupted the second day of
    ARRL CW Sweepstakes. Planetary A index for the day was 57, and the
    highest 3-hour planetary K index readings were 6, 6, 7 and 6.33 from
    1200-2100 UTC. This was triggered by a coronal mass ejection (CME).

    This reporting week, ending November 8, saw six new emerging sunspot
    groups, one on each day, except November 6.

    Solar activity improved, with average daily sunspot number
    increasing from 76.7 to 89.7. Average daily solar flux rose from
    137.5 to 151.7.

    Geomagnetic activity increased. Average daily planetary A index
    changed from 15.9 to 22.3 and middle latitude A index rose from 11.9
    to 14.6.

    The most active days were Sunday and Monday when the planetary A
    index was 57 and 40, respectively.

    Predicted solar flux is 140 on November 10-11, then 145, 130 and 135
    on November 12-14, 130 on November 15-16, 123 and 120 on November
    17-18, 125 on November 19-22, 130 on November 23-26, then 132, 134
    and 134 on November 27-29, 136 on November 30 through December 2,
    then 140 and 138 on December 3-4, 136 on December 5-6, then 138, 136
    and 134 on December 7-9, 130 on December 10-12, then 125, 123 and
    120 on December 13-15, and 125 on December 16-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 8, 12 and 10 on November
    10-14, then 5 on November 15-21, then 15, 10 and 15 on November
    22-24, then 15, 20, 15 and 8 on November 25-28, then 5 on November
    29 through December 5, then 12 and 8 on December 6-7, 5 on December
    8-10, then 8, 10, and 8 on December 11-13, and 5 on December 14-18.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - November 9, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "In agreement with the prediction, two CMEs probably hit the Earth
    on 4 and 5 November in succession (at least the second one on 3
    November, also in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, was a 'full
    halo CME').

    "A G1 class geomagnetic storm was expected for the arrival of both
    CMEs. The expectation was gradually changed to G2, but in fact its
    intensity reached G3 (since 5 November 1743 UT, by K = 7).

    "A relatively recently described and still somewhat mysterious
    phenomenon, referred to as 'STEVE' (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement), was also observed.

    "It looks like an aurora, but unlike the aurora, it can be detected
    already in weaker storms (by K = 4 or more). They are caused by hot
    (3000 deg C) jets of gas flowing through the Earth's magnetosphere
    at speeds in excess of 6 km/s.

    "For the shortwave propagation, the positive phase of the
    disturbance development (with increase of MUF and overall
    improvement) was observed not only on November 4, but even better
    after a pause on November 5. This was followed by a massive
    deterioration, especially on 6 November, continuing to some extent
    on 7 November. Although the influx of fast solar wind with enhanced
    proton content continued, an increase in MUF followed with relative
    improvement in shortwave propagation conditions as early as 8-9
    November."

    On Friday, November 3, W0IY wrote:

    "I was very pleased with great conditions to Europe and North Africa
    Saturday October 28 at 1700 UTC on 10 meters SSB. Happily working
    stations when I saw a spot for Vanuatu. Tuned to the freq and easily
    worked him. Didn't change the beam.

    "Sunday morning same conditions and there is a spot for Reunion
    Island. 1 call.

    "Neither sounded like long path. Both strong signals in Cedar
    Rapids, Iowa.

    "Just seems like odd propagation."

    I ran some paths with W6ELprop software, and to Reunion from W0IY
    the best time for 10 meters on this 10,000 mile path would be
    1630-1800 UTC, with possible openings also from 1530-1900 UTC.

    An article on recent aurora:

    https://bit.ly/467cs6d[1]

    A solar eruption resembling a "Canyon of Fire":

    https://bit.ly/3sBIGZo[2]

    Scientists discover new truth about the Sun's structure:

    https://www.indy100.com/science-tech/the-sun-structure-new-discovery[3]

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/nPrxI0KJmv4[4]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

    Sunspot numbers for November 2 through 8, 2023 were 113, 106, 95,
    81, 67, 74, and 92, with a mean of 89.7. 10.7 cm flux was 158.4,
    156.1, 155.3, 154.8, 146.2, 145.1, and 145.7, with a mean of 151.7.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 14, 57, 40, 18, and 16,
    with a mean of 22.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 12, 30, 27,
    11, and 15, with a mean of 14.6.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/467cs6d
    [2] https://bit.ly/3sBIGZo
    [3] https://www.indy100.com/science-tech/the-sun-structure-new-discovery
    [4] https://youtu.be/nPrxI0KJmv4
    [5] k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Dec 2 15:41:11 2023
    11/17/2023

    "ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2306 UTC 16 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "Two recent CMEs associated with small solar filament eruptions are
    expected to increase geomagnetic activity from mid 19-Nov to 20-Nov.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2023."

    Solar activity was lower this week, November 9-15, with average
    daily sunspot numbers dropping from 89.7 to 80.1, and average daily
    solar flux from 151.7 to 133.8.

    If these numbers seem a little low lately, we should check the
    bulletin from the same week last year.

    In the November 18, 2022 bulletin average daily sunspot number
    changed from 79.8 to 72.3, so a year later we are definitely still
    trending higher.

    Geomagnetic indicators were also lower, planetary A index changing
    from 22.3 to 10.4, and middle latitude A index from 14.6 to 8.6.

    A single new sunspot group appeared on November 10, another on
    November 12, one more on November 13 and another on November 14.
     
    Predicted solar flux is 118 and 120 on November 17-18,  122 on
    November 19-22, then 126, 135 and 135 on November 23-25, then 140,
    148, and 152 November 26-28, 155 on November 29 through December 1,
    then 152, 150, 148 and 145 on December 2-5, then 140 on December
    6-8, then 145, 135, 130 and 125 on December 9-12, 120 on December
    13-15, then 125, 128, 130 and 132 on December 16-19, 135 on December
    20-22, 140 and 148 on December 23-24, and 152 on December 25-26.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 15, 26 and 10 on November
    17-21, then 5, 10, 18, 20 and 12 on November 22-26, 8 on November
    27-28, 5 on November 29 through December 3, then 10, 16, 12 and 10
    on December 4-7, 5 on December 8-9, 8 on December 10-13, then 5 on
    December 14-18, then 15, 12, 18, 20, and 12 no December 19-23, and 8
    on December 24-25.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere November 17-23, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "During the first half of November, solar activity continuously
    decreased, which was not what we would have liked for shortwave
    propagation.

    "Even worse, there were relatively few geomagnetically quiet days -
    only November 2, 3, 11 and 14.

    "There were more days with higher geomagnetic activity: 4-8, 13 and
    15 November. In addition, high levels of free electrons were present
    in the ionosphere during relatively long periods (up to 4 November
    and 7-12 November), which contributed to an increase in the
    attenuation of passing electromagnetic waves.

    "Shortwave propagation conditions in the second half of the month
    should definitely be better as solar activity is expected to
    increase. In addition, with the exception of the last days of
    November (when we expect a disturbance), we expect the geomagnetic
    field to be mostly quiet to only moderately active.

    "If we try to account for the 27-day recurrence, geomagnetically
    active days with fluctuations in propagation should occur after
    November 21 again, but this is really only a guess given the current
    nature of the trend."

    Check this site for an update on current conditions on various
    bands:

    https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/[1]
     
    From Dick Bingham, W7WKR, an article about Heliophysics and amateur
    radio:

    https://bit.ly/46jYf5O[2]

    An article from NOAA about Sunspots/Solar Cycle:

    https://bit.ly/47iUpv2[3]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

    Sunspot numbers for November 9 through 15, 2023 were 93, 93, 85, 78,
    85, 86, and 41, with a mean of 80.1. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7, 143.9,
    141.5, 137.2, 132.7, 123.8, and 118.9, with a mean of 133.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 10, 5, 12, 16, 6, and 12,
    with a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 4, 10, 15, 5,
    and 11, with a mean of 8.6.
     


    [1] https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/
    [2] https://bit.ly/46jYf5O
    [3] https://bit.ly/47iUpv2
    [4] k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Dec 2 15:41:18 2023
    11/27/2023

    Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet last weekend, good conditions
    for the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes. But there was much more geomagnetic
    activity toward the end of the reporting week, when the planetary A
    index jumped to 30 and Alaska's College A index reached 60, a very
    high value.

    This past weekend was the CW portion of the CQ World Wide DX
    Contest.

    Solar activity really picked up in the past few days, with three new
    sunspot groups on November 17, 18 and 19, then six new groups on
    November 20, another on November 21, and three more groups on
    Thanksgiving Day, November 23.

    Sunspot numbers on Tuesday through Thursday, November 21-23 were
    138, 174 and 176, and the total sunspot area on Thursday was 1560
    millionths of the solar surface, the largest in a long time.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 80.1 to 83.3, while average
    daily solar flux went from 133.8 to 146. Average daily planetary A
    index went from 10.4 to 10.1, and middle latitude numbers from 8.6
    to 7.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 195 on November 24-28, then 190, 185, 155
    and 152 on November 29 through December 2, then 150, 148 and 145 on
    December 3-5, 140 on December 6-8, 145 on December 9-10, 140 on
    December 11-17, 145 on December 18-23, 148 on December 24, 152 on
    December 25-26, 155 on December 27-28, then 152, 150 and 148 on
    December 29-31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10 on November 24-25, 15 on
    November 26-27, 8 on November 28, 5 on November 29 through December
    3, then 10, 16, 12 and 10 on December 4-7, 5 on December 8-11, then
    10 and 8 on December 12-13, 5 on December 14-17, then 10, 15 and 12
    on December 18-20, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on December 21-25, and 5 on
    December 26-30.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere November 24-30, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "After passing through a twenty-seven day low in mid-November, solar
    activity began to increase. Slowly at first, then steeply in recent
    days. What was common to the whole period was that the predictions
    of further developments were not fulfilled. Shortwave propagation
    conditions were, with a few exceptions, worse than expected.

    "In the second half of last week, the Earth's magnetic field was
    calm despite the eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun on
    November 16, which threw a CME almost directly toward the Earth. We
    expected the CME to arrive on November 19. On the contrary, quiet
    days followed on November 19-20. Then, despite seven new sunspot
    groups and calm in the Earth's magnetosphere, propagation conditions
    did not improve until November 20.

    "Improvement occurred on 21 November, when the onset of the
    geomagnetic disturbance was accompanied by two positive phases of
    development with increases in MUF and an overall improvement in
    conditions (at intervals of 10-13 UTC and 16-19 UTC).

    "The following evolution could be expected - there was a
    deterioration of propagation conditions in the negative phase of the disturbance development on 22 November. However, the deterioration
    was short-lived, after which, thanks to the increasing solar
    activity, an improvement occurred already on 23 November.

    "Although solar activity continues to increase, there is a coronal
    hole near the five active regions in the northeast quadrant of the
    solar disk. This configuration will cause further increases in solar
    wind speed and therefore more frequent alternation of better and
    worse days."

    In a message titled "6 Meter F2 November 22" Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "Despite a predicted CME impact over the weekend of November 18-19
    missing the Earth, the geomagnetic field had minor storm conditions
    November 22. The K index went to 5. This was enough of a nudge for
    the F2 MUF to climb above 50 MHz to South America.

    "I had several HC stations in around 1503z including HC2AO, HC2FG
    and HC1MD/2. The opening lasted about 45 minutes then faded. Later
    F2 appeared to the Caribbean area. I logged PJ4MM in FK52 at 1615z.

    "Stations in the Minneapolis, MN area had an opening to Namibia with
    V51WW working numerous W9 and W0 stations on 6 Meter FT8."
     
    In the current issue of the ARRL Letter there is an article about
    two hams who are 100 miles apart in Florida who made contact via a
    10 meter FM repeater in Switzerland.

    The annual ARRL 160-Meter Contest will be this weekend, December
    1-3:

    https://www.arrl.org/160-meter[1]

    Looking forward, the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest will be on
    December 9-10:

    https://www.arrl.org/10-meter[2]

    Two new video reports from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/DDh8-j1yOw0[3]

    https://youtu.be/tZ7BZd6LKzU[4]

    Two articles on a big sunspot group:

    https://bit.ly/40TWATp[5]

    https://bit.ly/47P9C7d[6]
                  
    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for November 16 through 22, 2023 were 28, 26, 39,
    51, 127, 138, and 174, with a mean of 83.3. 10.7 cm flux was 117.9,
    119.6, 127.1, 140.1, 156.5, 171.5, and 189.5, with a mean of 146.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 3, 3, 4, 5, 18, and 30, with a
    mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 3, 2, 3, 4, 15, and 17,
    with a mean of 7.3.

     


    [1] https://www.arrl.org/160-meter
    [2] https://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [3] https://youtu.be/DDh8-j1yOw0
    [4] https://youtu.be/tZ7BZd6LKzU
    [5] https://bit.ly/40TWATp
    [6] https://bit.ly/47P9C7d
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Dec 2 15:41:22 2023
    12/01/2023

    "GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 23/74 ISSUED AT 2321UT/29 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "Several CMEs are expected to impact Earth over 30 Nov and 01 Dec. Two CMEs were observed on 27 Nov that were expected to arrive on 30 Nov, followed shortly by a very mild glancing blow from a third.

    "One or possibly two halo CMEs were observed on 29 Nov which are Earth directed.  It is likely all or some of these CMEs will combine on their trajectory toward Earth, making it difficult to pinpoint an exact arrival time, however G3-G4 geomagnetic conditions are possible over this period."

    Over the past reporting week, ten new sunspot groups appeared. Three on November 23, one each day on November 24 to 26, another on November 28 and three more on November 29.

    Solar numbers increased, with average daily sunspot number rising dramatically from 83.3 to 165.9, doubling the previous week's number. Average daily solar flux rose from 146 to 181.5.

    Geomagnetic numbers rose only slightly, with planetary A index changing from 10.1 to 11.6, and middle latitude numbers from 7.3 to 7.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 166 and 162 on December 1 and 2, 158 on December 3 and 4, then 156, 152, 150 and 140 on December 5 to 8, 145 on December 9 and 10, 140 on December 11 to 16, 150 on December 17, then 160 on December 18 to 28, then 165, 160 and 150 on December 29 to 31, then 145 on January 1, 2024, 140 on January 2 to 4, and 145 on January 5 and 6.

    Predicted planetary A index is 54, 22 and 10 on December 1 to 3, 16 on December 4 and 5, 12 and 8 on December 6 and 7, 5 on December 8 to 11, then 10 and 8 on December 12 and 13, 5 on December 14 to 17, then 15, 25, 8 and 5 on December 18 and 21, then 20, 10, 10, and 8 on December 22 to 25, and 5 on December 26 to 30, then 10, 16, 12 and 10 on December 31 through January 3, 2024, and 5 on January 4 to 7.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere December 1 to 7, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "A week ago the CW portion of the CQ World Wide DX Contest was held. Prior to that there were several scenarios of possible developments during the weekend of November 25 and 26, 2023.  In the end the less likely scenario was the one that developed.  This was due to a relatively inconspicuous C-class solar flare observed on November 22.

    "However, a detailed analysis of its evolution revealed that it was preceded by a pre-eruption, which was the first signal that a CME was likely to follow.

    "Further observations from satellites and radio telescopes confirmed the CME and measured the speed of the particle cloud.  Its rendezvous with Earth was expected on November 24, which would have been bad enough for the contest. However, the particle cloud hit the Earth a day later.  Therefore shortwave propagation improved on November 25 (especially in the afternoon UTC, during the positive phase of the disturbance), whereupon an aggravation occurred on the following day.

    "The maximum of solar cycle 25 is approaching.  CMEs, originating from more energetic solar flares, or from solar plasma filament eruptions, are hitting Earth with increasing frequency.

    "For example, at the time of this writing, another geomagnetic disturbance is expected as another CME from the eruption observed on November 28 is expected to hit Earth on December 1 and 2.

    "In the meantime, we are observing a rather large coronal hole in the southeastern solar disk, which will deflate along its southwestern quadrant over the next week.

    "In particular, we are observing active regions to the east of it. This neighbourhood will result in further intensification of the solar wind and variations in geomagnetic field activity over the next week.  Its predictions do exist, but they will not be reliable."

    I noticed that OK1HH has a packet radio address.  His address is:

    Pmail: OK1HH@OK0NAG.BOH.CZE.EU[1]

    Cycle peak in 2024?  https://bit.ly/3sXwrqi[2]

    Cycle peak in the next few months?  https://bit.ly/3N7KOPG[3]

    Predicting cycle peaks.  https://bit.ly/46EKxKU[4]

    A new long video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/qiHtkXfZnQo[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    A archive of past propagation bulletins is at  

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10]

    Sunspot numbers for November 23 through 29, 2023 were 176, 184, 179,169, 159, 130, and 164, with a mean of 83.3.  10.7 cm flux was 194.2, 178, 176.4, 180.2, 187.3, 183.5, and 170.6, with a mean of 146.  Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 38, 10, 7, 7, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.  Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 18, 9, 2, 6, and 9, with a mean of 7.3.


    [1] mailto:OK1HH@OK0NAG.BOH.CZE.EU
    [2] https://bit.ly/3sXwrqi
    [3] https://bit.ly/3N7KOPG
    [4] https://bit.ly/46EKxKU
    [5] https://youtu.be/qiHtkXfZnQo
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Dec 11 14:05:42 2023
    12/11/2023

    Six new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week (November 30
    to December 6).

    Last week, using the previous week's Propagation Forecast bulletin
    as a template, the averages were not updated, although all the
    correct data was there.

    So instead of average daily sunspot number of 83.3, it was actually
    165.9, which this week dropped to 121.1.

    Instead of average daily solar flux of 146, it was actually 181.5,
    which this week declined to 146.5.

    Instead of average daily planetary A index of 10.1, it was actually
    11.6, which this week rose to 17.1. Instead of average middle
    latitude A index of 7.3 it was 9, rising this week to 11.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 135, 130, 130 and 135 on December 8-11, 137
    on December 12-15, 140 and 150 on December 16-17, 160 on December
    18-26, then 155, 150, 145, and 140 on December 27-30, then 136, 134
    and 130 on December 31 through January 2, 2024, and 132 on January
    3-5, then 130 and 135 on January 6-7, then 140 on January 8-12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 8-9, 8 on December
    10-11, 5 on December 12-17, then 15, 25, 8, 5, 20 and 10 on December
    18-23, 5 on December 24-30, then 25, 10 and 8 on December 31 through
    January 2, 2024, and 5 on January 3-6, then 10 and 8 on January 7-8,
    and 5 on January 9-13.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere, December 8-14, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "After passing through a twenty-seven day low in mid-November, solar
    activity began to increase. Slowly at first, then steeply in recent
    days. What was common to the whole period was that the predictions
    of further developments were not fulfilled. Shortwave conditions
    were, with a few exceptions, worse than expected.

    "In the second half of last week, the Earth's magnetic field was
    calm despite the eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun on
    November 16, which threw a CME almost directly toward the Earth. We
    expected the CME to arrive on November 19. On the contrary, quiet
    days followed on November 19-20.

    "Then, despite seven new sunspot groups and calm in the Earth's
    magnetosphere, propagation did not improve until November 20.

    "Improvement occurred on 21 November, when the onset of the
    geomagnetic disturbance was accompanied by two positive phases of
    development with increases in MUF and an overall improvement in
    conditions (at intervals of 1000-1300 UTC and 1600-1900 UTC).

    "The following evolution could be expected - there was a
    deterioration of conditions in the negative phase of the disturbance development on 22 November. However, the deterioration was
    short-lived, after which, thanks to the increasing solar activity,
    an improvement occurred already on 23 November.

    "Although solar activity continues to increase, there is a coronal
    hole near the five active regions in the northeast quadrant of the
    solar disk. This configuration will cause further increases in solar
    wind speed and therefore more frequent alternation of better and
    worse days."

    From "Universe Today" a story about a big, big solar storm in 1872:

    https://bit.ly/3RgUWqL[1]

    A story about a big coronal hole:

    https://bit.ly/487quGd[2]

    From "Science Alert" another article about a big hole on the Sun:

    https://bit.ly/41adYDC[3]

    From "EarthSky" a new region on the Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3RxtCWG[4]

    Don't forget, the ARRL 10 meter contest is THIS weekend!

    https://www.arrl.org/10-meter[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for November 30 through December 6, 2023 were 138,
    140, 92, 107, 113, 133, and 125, with a mean of 121.1. 10.7 cm flux
    was 166.5, 162, 148.2, 139.2, 137.8, 141.6, and 129.9, with a mean
    of 146.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 56, 14, 11, 9, 15,
    and 10, with a mean of 14.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 30, 11,
    10, 9, 9, and 7, with a mean of 7.3.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3RgUWqL
    [2] https://bit.ly/487quGd
    [3] https://bit.ly/41adYDC
    [4] https://bit.ly/3RxtCWG
    [5] https://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 15 18:13:56 2023
    12/15/2023

    "GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0132 UTC ON 15 DECEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "Two predominately westward CMEs were observed on 14-Dec and
    component arrivals are expected on 17-Dec.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR 17 DECEMBER 2023."

    Spaceweather.com[1] issued this alert on Thursday:

    "MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: The Sun just unleashed the strongest
    solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far), an X2.8-class explosion from
    unstable sunspot AR3514. The blast caused a deep shortwave radio
    blackout over the Americas and may have hurled a fast CME toward
    Earth."

    Solar activity declined this week. Average daily sunspot numbers
    dropped from 121.1 to 110.3, and average daily solar flux from 146.5
    to 129.8.

    With such low geomagnetic activity, conditions were good for last
    weekend's ARRL 10 Meter Contest, although some wished for more
    sunspots.

    Six new sunspot groups appeared this week. The first two on December
    8, another two on December 11 and 12, and two more on December 13.

    Geomagnetic conditions were quieter, with planetary A index dropping
    from 14.1 to 5.6, and middle latitude numbers from 7.3 to 4.6.

    Predicted solar flux shows some expected improvement, with values
    peaking at 160 on December 20-22, and 155 on January 23.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on December 15-16, then 145, 150 and 155
    on December 17-19, 160 on December 20-22, but dropping back to 140
    on December 23-24, 150 on December 25-26, then 155, 150 and 145 on
    December 27-29, then 140 on December 30 through January 2, 2024, and
    135 on January 3-5, then 130, 125, 120, 118, and 120 on January
    6-10, 122 on January 11-12, then 124, 125, and 130 on January 13-15,
    135 on January 16-18, 140 on January 19-20, and 150 on January
    21-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 22 on December 15-16, 12 on
    December 17-18, then 18, 8, 8, 20 and 10 on December 19-23, 5 on
    December 24-29, 8 on December 30-31, then 10 and 8 on January 1-2,
    2024, 5 on January 3-6, 12 on January 7-9, 8 and 5 on January 10-11,
    12 on January 12-13, then 15, 25, 8, 5, 20 and 10 on January 14-19,
    and 5 for at least the following few days.

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere December 15-21, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Solar activity has been gradually decreasing over the last seven
    days, broadly in line with the forecast.

    "Most of the flares came from the active region AR3514, which was
    moving from the northeast to the northwest.

    "Eventually, most of the sunspots were in the northwest of the solar
    disk, and as they gradually set over the next few days, solar
    activity should continue to decrease.

    "While activity on the Sun's receding half does not appear to be
    great, there is definitely a larger active region beyond the Sun's
    northeastern limb. This observation is likely the basis for the
    latest forecast from the U.S. Air Force, which predicts a rise in
    solar flux initially to 160, and after a slight drop back above 150
    around Christmas.

    "Shortwave propagation conditions, which have suffered particularly
    in the Earth's northern hemisphere from the decline in solar
    activity, should improve.

    "But developments may be more complicated. Just as a CME originating
    from the solar flare of 11 December with a peak at 2243 UT arrived
    at Earth before midnight UTC on 13 December, triggered a geomagnetic disturbance in the first hours UTC on 14 December and significantly
    worsened propagation, we can expect something similar from the
    stronger flare of 14 December with a peak at 0744 UTC. However,
    subsequent geomagnetic disturbances should be no more intense than
    G1."

    Reader David Moore sent this article from "SpaceNews":

    https://bit.ly/46ZKDNF[2]

    On Wednesday morning Spaceweather.com announced:

    "The best meteor shower of the year is expected to peak on December
    13-14 with no Moon to spoil the show. Rural observers could see
    hundreds of Geminid meteors and more than a few fireballs."

    From Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico:

    "The 10 meter contest in my view was pretty nice on average,
    although did notice this:

    "During 0000 UTC on Saturday got always South America for about 3
    hours before the band closed. Then before 1200 UTC got to work
    VR2XAN which was a surprise as my antenna was pointing to Europe (he
    said he was beaming the South Pole) and it's been 10 years since I
    worked Hong Kong for the first time.

    "But then, could not work a few Europeans, and the band likely
    closed to them by 1500 UTC, and the US was pretty strong.

    "Then it closed at 2230 UTC, so SA predominated again. It repeated
    for Sunday.

    "Also noted that there was a lot of fading as some stations
    disappeared for a few seconds to a minute. And the SFI dropped to
    130 which could have been a factor.

    "But for what I am happy is that I accumulated 600 points for the
    VOTA event, and I delivered 35."

    Did you know India has a solar observatory in space?  Here is an
    article from "The Times Of India":

    https://bit.ly/3GGecsH[3]

    From WBZ news, a story about a Massive Solar Flare:

    https://bit.ly/4anifba[4]

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI wrote:

    "The solar flux wasn't optimal for the ARRL 10-meter contest last
    weekend, but it was good enough. There was a lot of activity on the
    voice part of the band.

    "Operating from my kayak with 10 watts and a small homebrew loop, I
    gathered 38 contest exchanges on Saturday and Sunday, around 3-1/2
    hours of operating in total.

    "On Saturday, South and Central America, and Caribbean stations were
    coming in as well as the usual Canadian stations for
    out-of-the-country exchanges. I managed to snap up one Brazilian
    station for DX.

    "On Sunday, I heard Australian stations coming in, but couldn't get
    them to hear me. There were also more Brazilian stations plus a few
    from Argentina.

    "I was operating around noontime. QSB was evident."

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, put out a new video this week:

    https://youtu.be/64CTIrWBGTc[5]

    A couple of interesting QRZ.com[6] pages to check out: KS7ROH for his astrophotography and other projects, and W6BSD for links to his
    propagation pages.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for December 7 through 13, 2023 were 121, 125, 125,
    120, 87, 80, and 114, with a mean of 110.3. 10.7 cm flux was 134.6,
    132.6, 127.9, 126.6, 125.9, 126.2, and 134.8, with a mean of 129.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 3, 4, 3, 10, and 8, with a
    mean of 5.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 8, and 7,
    with a mean of 4.6.

     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/46ZKDNF
    [3] https://bit.ly/3GGecsH
    [4] https://bit.ly/4anifba
    [5] https://youtu.be/64CTIrWBGTc
    [6] http://QRZ.com
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 22 15:36:41 2023
    12/22/2023

    The Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year in the Northern
    Hemisphere occurred at 0327 UTC on December 22. It is the start of
    summer in the Southern Hemisphere.

    Solar activity increased over the last reporting week (December
    14-20), with eleven new sunspot groups emerging.

    One new sunspot group appeared on December 15, four more on the
    following day, another on December 17, three more on December 18,
    and two more in December 19-20.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 110.3 to 137.4, solar flux
    from 129.8 to 162.7, planetary A index 5.6 to 18.4, and middle
    latitude A index from 4.6 to 13.7.

    The most active day was Sunday, December 17 when the planetary A
    index was 36, and Alaska's college A index was 88.

    The cause was what Spaceweather.com reported as the strongest flare
    of the current solar cycle, an X2.8 class, and it caused a radio
    blackout.

    Here is a video of the brief flash:

    https://bit.ly/3RP3xCw[1]

    Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday that another flare is coming
    from sunspot group AR3529, and here is a movie they posted:

    https://bit.ly/3tipAbr[2]

    Predicted solar flux is 190, 188 and 186 on December 22-24, then
    182, 180, 170 and 165 on December 25-28, 145 on December 29-30, 150
    on December 31, then 145, 140 and 138 on January 1-3, 2024, then 136
    on January 4-5, then 140, 145 and 148 on January 6-8, 145 on January
    9-12, then 150, 147, 145, 140, and 138 on January 13-17, 136 on
    January 18-19, then 140, 145 and 148 on January 20-22, then 145 on
    January 23-26, then 150, 145, 140 and 138 on January 27-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 8 on December 22-24, 5 on
    December 25-29, 8 on December 30-31, then 10 and 8 on January 1-2,
    2024, 5 on January 3-7, 10 on January 8-9, 8 on January 10, 5 on
    January 11-13, 15 on January 14, 12 on January 15-16, and 8 on
    January 17-19, then 5 on January 20-25, and 8 on January 26-27.

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote, from Kansas:

    "Some winter 6 meter Es December 18-19. N7BHC (EL15) and KD5CAF
    (EL18) into EM28 for me on FT8 around 0100 UTC December 19. Earlier
    stations in Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri had ZL7DX in on 6 meters
    at 2200 UTC December 18."

    Here is a new, long video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from
    earlier this week:

    https://bit.ly/3GPRYET[3]

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - December 21, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Astronomical winter began in the Northern Hemisphere at the moment
    of the Winter Solstice: December 22 at 0327 UTC. On this day is the
    longest night and, of course, the shortest day. The total effect of
    solar X-ray and ultraviolet radiation on the ionosphere of our
    hemisphere was thus relatively the smallest of the entire year, and
    the effects of changes in the solar wind were all the more
    effective. This is also one of the reasons why, despite relatively
    high solar activity, the shortwave propagation conditions are worse
    than we would like and then we expected.

    "Over the next six months, the length of the day will increase until
    the Summer Solstice on June 20. Slowly at first, then faster,
    fastest around the Spring Equinox on March 20. It is certain that
    then the propagation conditions will be significantly better than
    now. It is even possible that the maximum of the eleven-year cycle
    will occur as early as next year, although it would be better for us
    if it did not occur until 2025.

    "Although we have not observed any particularly large sunspot groups
    in recent weeks, there were always one or two active regions among
    them, whose magnetic configuration allowed the development of a
    medium-sized eruption, possibly even with a CME - after all we
    observed several of these. The exception was the X2.8 class eruption
    on December 14 at 1702 UTC, the strongest so far since the beginning
    of the 25th solar cycle, or since the major disturbances in
    September 2017.

    "The eruption originated in AR3514, which was approaching the
    western limb of the Sun. Even though it hurled a fast-moving CME
    into space, it was relatively unlikely to cause strong geomagnetic
    storms here on Earth. Eventually, the CME either missed Earth or hit
    so weakly that it was not detected by satellite sensors.

    "During the rise of the solar flux from 126 on December 12 to 195 on
    December 20, with the corresponding increase in solar X-ray
    radiation, shortwave propagation improved only slightly, actually
    fluctuating, which was expected.

    "The last geomagnetically quiet day was December 13, after which the
    Earth's magnetic field was unsettled to active (more precisely:
    active around last weekend). However, most days until the end of
    this year should be geomagnetically quieter, while the solar flux
    will remain elevated. Therefore, we can expect slightly better
    propagation."

    Here are a number of articles about a Big Flare:

    https://bit.ly/3RQG4Rb[4]

    https://bit.ly/3RRzBpe[5]

    https://bit.ly/48tJtuH[6]

    https://bit.ly/3TAeybV[7]

    https://bit.ly/48pIpbo[8]

    https://bit.ly/488c88X[9]

    https://bit.ly/3tymsrK[10]

    https://bit.ly/3RwJzLh[11]

    https://bit.ly/3RThBuQ[12]

    https://bit.ly/3RRzzh0[13]

    An article about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/3v5b5Il[14]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[15]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[16] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[17] . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[18] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[19] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[20] .

    Also, check this article about understanding solar indices:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[21]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[22] .

    Sunspot numbers for December 14 through 20, 2023 were 126, 130, 163,
    129, 137, 144, and 133, with a mean of 137.4. 10.7 cm flux was
    155.1, 144.3, 149, 154.6, 161.4, 179.3, and 195.3, with a mean of
    162.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 12, 14, 36, 28, 12,
    and 11, with a mean of 18.4. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 10,
    32, 16, 10, and 7, with a mean of 13.7.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3RP3xCw
    [2] https://bit.ly/3tipAbr
    [3] https://bit.ly/3GPRYET
    [4] https://bit.ly/3RQG4Rb
    [5] https://bit.ly/3RRzBpe
    [6] https://bit.ly/48tJtuH
    [7] https://bit.ly/3TAeybV
    [8] https://bit.ly/48pIpbo
    [9] https://bit.ly/488c88X
    [10] https://bit.ly/3tymsrK
    [11] https://bit.ly/3RwJzLh
    [12] https://bit.ly/3RThBuQ
    [13] https://bit.ly/3RRzzh0
    [14] https://bit.ly/3v5b5Il
    [15] k7ra@arrl.net
    [16] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [17]
    [18] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [19] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [20] http://k9la.us/
    [21] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [22] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 29 22:06:06 2023
    12/29/2023 ππThe recent reporting week, December 21-27, saw counter-intuitive solar numbers,πwith solar flux rising but sunspot numbers in decline. This happens from timeπto time. ππAverage daily sunspot numbers declined from 137.4 to 114.4. Only three newπsunspot groups emerged, two on December 22, and one on December 27. OnπThursday, December 28 one more sunspot emerged and the sunspot number increasedπfrom 78 to 83. ππAverage daily solar flux rose from 162.7 to 172.6. ππPredicted solar flux over the next month is 145 on December 29-30, 140 onπDecember 31 to January 1, 2024, 135 on January 2-4, 150 on January 5-7, 155 onπJanuary 8-11, then 150, 155, 160, 170 and 175 on January 12-16, 180 on Januaryπ17-21, then 170, 165, 162, 155 and 145 on January 22-26, then 140 on Januaryπ27-30, and 150 on January 31 to February 3. ππPredicted planetary A index is 5, 10, 8, 16, and 8 on December 29 throughπJanuary 2, 2024, then 5 on January 3-7, then 10, 10 and 8 on  January 8-10,πthen 5 on January 11-25, then 12, 10, 10 and 8 on January 26-29, and 5 onπJanuary 30 through February 3. ππWeekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere,πDecember 28, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH. ππ"There are active regions on the Sun that may not even be large, but whoseπmagnetic configuration points to the possibility of solar flares, up toπmoderately important ones. CMEs are no exception, but they may not hit theπEarth at all. ππ"On December 24, three moderate-importance flares were observed. At least oneπof them produced a CME. Based on measurements of its velocity, the collisionπwith Earth was predicted to December 27. However, nothing happened, and despiteπthe extension of the prediction of the onset of the disturbance by a day, calmπcontinued on 28 December. ππ"For many days now there has been such a large active region on the Sun's farπside that it is affecting the vibration of the entire Sun. In addition, it hasπbeen observed by NASA's Mars Perseverance rover camera. While it is primarilyπdesigned to see if there is dust in the air, it can see large sunspots and,πmost importantly, the sun's far side is now visible from Mars. ππ"So we await the return of AR 3514, which will rise in the northeastern solarπdisk shortly after the New Year. It will be a significant contributor to theπfurther rise in solar activity in the days ahead. Furthermore, longer termπforecasts are calling for high solar activity in the second half of January. Soπperhaps we will finally see an improvement in shortwave conditions." ππDon't forget ARRL Straight Key Night is this weekend, for all of New Years Dayπ(UTC), so that starts at 4:00 PM Sunday here on the Left Coast where I live.πOperate CW in a casual event using your straight key or semi-automatic bug. ππRecent activity: https://bit.ly/3vhqLIE[1] ππSun as revolving field motor: https://bit.ly/41CbEFA[2] ππAurora: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8qwdc5[3] ππ2023 solar activity: ππhttp://tinyurl.com/55x96tfd[4]   https://bit.ly/3RYngj1[5] ππCosmic spectacle: https://bit.ly/41C8kdR[6] ππLarger storms: https://bit.ly/3RDl4fB[7] ππTamitha Skov's latest report: https://youtu.be/-xt-qMPQWwE[8] ππSend your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments toπk7ra@arrl.net[9] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us whichπmode you were operating. ππFor more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, seeπhttp://www.arrl.org/propagation[10]  and the ARRL Technical Information Serviceπweb page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an explanationπof numbers used in this bulletin, see ππhttp://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12]  ππAn archive of past propagation bulletins is at ππhttp://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good informationπand tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] ππAlso, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15] ππInstructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are atπhttp://arrl.org/bulletins[16] ππSunspot numbers for December 21 through 27, 2023 were 138, 157, 123, 113, 98,π94, and 78, with a mean of 114.4. 10.7 cm flux was 193.6, 186.7, 174.2, 183.4,π166.7, 154.2, and 149.4, with a mean of 172.6. Estimated planetary A indicesπwere 5, 4, 7, 9, 4, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.4. Middle latitude A index wasπ3, 3, 5, 7, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4. πππ[1] https://bit.ly/3vhqLIEπ[2] https://bit.ly/41CbEFAπ[3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8qwdc5π[4] http://tinyurl.com/55x96tfdπ[5] https://bit.ly/3RYngj1π[6] https://bit.ly/41C8kdRπ[7] https://bit.ly/3RDl4fBπ[8] https://youtu.be/-xt-qMPQWwEπ[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.netπ[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagationπ[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signalsπ[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphereπ[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagationπ[14] http://k9la.us/π[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njtπ[16] http://arrl.org/bulletinsππ---π ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBSπ
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 5 21:24:49 2024
    01/05/2024

    Only four new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, one on
    December 28, another on December 31, and two more on January 2 and
    3.

    Solar indices sank. The average daily sunspot number declined from
    114.4 to 63.4, and average daily solar flux from 172.6 to 141.9.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 8.4 to 6.7 and middle
    latitude numbers from 4 to 5.1.

    Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks is 130 on January 5-7,
    135 on January 8-10, 140 on January 11, 155 on January 12-14, then
    160, 165, 160 and 155 on January 15-18, 150 on January 19-21, then
    145 and 140 on January 22-23, and 135 on January 24-26, 130 and 145
    on January 27-28, 140 on January 29-30, 145 on January 31 through
    February 1, 150 on February 2-4, 155 on February 5-6, 160 on
    February 7, and 155 on February 8-10.

    This is from the Thursday forecast, which looks substantially weaker
    than the Wednesday outlook in Thursday's ARRL Letter.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on January 5-9,
    then 5 on January 10-26, then 8, 15 and 12 on January 27-29, 8 on
    January 30-31, 5 on February 1-3, then 10, 10 and 8 on February 4-6,
    and 5 on February 7-18.

    Solar activity looks soft of late, but perhaps we will see a double
    peak in this cycle.

    But look at this illustration comparing progress in the current
    cycle against the last cycle, month by month since each minimum:

    https://bit.ly/4aMBefh[1]

    Page down to the second chart, labeled "Solar Cycle Comparison."

    There is some confusion because of the similarity in colors.

    The red line is the last cycle, probably smoothed by monthly
    averages.  The blue green line inside it is probably a conventional
    moving average with points on the line smoothed over a year.

    The yellow line is the current cycle, also probably smoothed over a
    year, and the light blue green line is the current cycle, probably
    smoothed with monthly numbers.

    This looks promising for more activity to come.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere, January 4, 2024, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The first celebrations of the end of the calendar year in Western
    civilization are associated with the person of the canonized Pope
    Silvester I, who died on the last day of the year 335. However, no
    one expected that December 31, 2023, would be celebrated with
    fireworks all the way on the Sun.

    "Helioseismological observations focused on a large active region
    approaching the northeastern limb of the solar disk from the far
    side, and large spots on the far side of the Sun were seen by the
    camera of the Perseverance rover on Mars. But no one actually
    expected a proton solar flare, the largest in the current
    eleven-year cycle.

    "The X5.0 eruption in X-ray band 1 to 8 Angstrom occurred at 2155
    UTC in NOAA/SWPC 3536 and was the largest observed eruption since
    the X8.2 eruption on September 10, 2017. In the same sunspot group
    (in the previous solar rotation), an X2.8 eruption was observed on
    December 14, 2023, whereby this was the strongest since the
    beginning of Solar Cycle 25 up to that point.

    "In particular, however, it also contributed to expectations of a
    further increase in activity in the next year or two.

    "Four days later, AR3536 is no longer as large as it was on the
    Sun's far side and about half the size it was in December as AR3514,
    but it is still capable of producing moderate solar flares.  Now AR
    3536 is approaching the central meridian from where a possible CME
    (within the next week) could already be hitting Earth.  At the same
    time, we expect a further increase in solar radiation , which could
    improve propagation conditions in the DX bands. But of course, also
    worsen if a possible magstorm lasts longer or even starts at night."

    I was on a video session on Sunday with Dr. Tamitha Skov and her
    Patreon subscribers. She was displaying the Sun in real time when
    the big flare happened. It was quite dramatic.

    She was also using a setting on Pskreporter.info[2] that I had never
    tried before. The settings are, "On All Bands, show Signals,
    sent/rcvd by Anyone, using All Modes, over the last" (pick a time).

    In real time we could immediately see the effects the flare had on
    propagation. It was fascinating. I use this regularly now to check
    worldwide propagation on all HF bands.

    I asked her if her husband was an astrophysicist, and she said,
    "No." She yelled, "Hey Kent! Come in here."

    Kent is an actor, an acting coach, a producer, and a writer. I asked
    how they met, which was hilarious. You won't read it here, but you
    can email me if you want more details.

    Scott Craig, WA4TTK years ago built some Windows software that sucks
    up solar data from this bulletin and displays it in a nice format on
    his Solar Data Plotting Utility. To update it, you just create a
    plain .txt file of this bulletin and point the program to the file.

    You can download it from http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp[3] and
    also on the same page is an updated data file good through 1/3/2024.

    The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/WN4iqCq4LAU[4]

    An article about a powerful solar storm:

    https://bit.ly/3RO0Ek5[5]

    Two articles about a solar storm that will hit hard:

    https://bit.ly/3vqMhL9[6]

    https://bit.ly/41L5SBI[7]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

    Also, check this article:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[14]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for December 28, 2023, through January 3, 2024, were
    83, 92, 48, 55, 44, 59, and 63, with a mean of 63.4. 10.7 cm flux
    was 146.7, 142.9, 139.7, 146.2, 135.7, 142.1, and 140.2, with a mean
    of 141.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 6, 5, 4, 10, 8, and
    11, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 4, 2, 6,
    8, and 8, with a mean of 5.1.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/4aMBefh
    [2] http://Pskreporter.info
    [3] http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp
    [4] https://youtu.be/WN4iqCq4LAU
    [5] https://bit.ly/3RO0Ek5
    [6] https://bit.ly/3vqMhL9
    [7] https://bit.ly/41L5SBI
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 12 17:53:47 2024
    01/12/2024

    Eight new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week, January
    4-10.

    Four new sunspot groups appeared on January 5, another two on
    January 7 and two more on January 9.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 63.4 to 146.1, and average
    daily solar flux went from 141.9 to 163.3.

    Geomagnetic indicators declined, with planetary A index going from
    6.7 to 4.9, and middle latitude numbers from 5.1 to 4.3.

    Predicted solar flux over the near term is 192, 190 and 186 on
    January 12-14, 188 on January 15-16, then 186 and 184 on January
    17-18, 150 on January 19-21, then 145 and 140 on January 22-23, 135
    on January 24-26, then 130 and 135 on January 27-28, 140 on January
    29-31, then 150, 160, 165 and 150 on February 1-4, 155 on February
    5-6, 160 on February 7, then 155 on February 8-10, then 160, 165,
    160 and 155 on February 11-14, and 150 on February 15-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 12, 8 on January 13-14,
    5, 5, 10 and 8 on January 15-18, 5 on January 19-27, 8 on January
    28-30, 5 on January 31 through February 3, then 10, 10 and 8 on
    February 4-6, and 5 on February 7-22.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - January 11, 2024 from OK1HH:

    "Since the beginning of the 25th Solar Cycle (December 2019), we
    observed 782 sunspot groups, and almost half of them (361) last
    year. Most forecasters believe that the solar maximum will occur in
    2024.

    "The exception is the Bureau of Meteorology Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre, whose 'OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES' table, published on January 4, already showed the probable highest SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER = 126.4 last November.

    "It should fall further until R = 15.5 in December 2029. But I
    believe solar activity will continue to rise and that we have a
    second maximum ahead of us, no later than 2025.

    "Now there is usually at least one active region on the Sun with an
    unstable magnetic field 'beta-gamma,' capable of producing flares of
    moderate magnitude, possibly with CMEs.

    "Any large flares would be the exception, and proton flares would be
    even more of an exception.

    "Among the more significant moderate-magnitude eruptions accompanied
    by CMEs is the M3.8/2n class event of 4 January at 0155 UTC, which
    produced the Dellinger event (SWF or Shortwave Fadeout) over
    Australia and the surrounding Pacific Ocean. There was silence at
    frequencies below 20 MHz for more than 30 minutes. This flare took
    place in the northeastern solar disk (N04E39), while the CME missed
    the Earth.

    "Other developments on the Sun were quieter, which contributed to a
    relatively long interval of geomagnetic quiet since 4 January
    onwards. At the same time, the intensity of solar radiation
    increased. The result was progressively improving shortwave
    propagation. But seven major active regions can now be counted on
    the Sun's far side. Once they emerge onto the solar disk the
    situation will change."

    NASA's SDO reveals hidden solar storm threat to Earth:

    https://bit.ly/3vxMJXU[1]

    Interesting application for use with Mobile Radio:

    https://www.ve2dbe.com/[2]
        
    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

    Also, check this page:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for January 4 through 10 2024 were 64, 121, 149,
    171, 152, 183, and 183, with a mean of 146.1. 10.7 cm flux was
    125.8, 152.7, 159.4, 167.1, 176.2, 175.9, and 186, with a mean of
    163.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 3, 3, 4, 6, and 7,
    with a mean of 4.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 2, 3, 4, 5,
    and 7, with a mean of 4.3.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3vxMJXU
    [2] https://www.ve2dbe.com/
    [3] k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 19 15:24:45 2024
    01/19/2024

    Solar activity increased substantially over the past week, with
    twelve new sunspot groups. One appeared on January 11, five more on
    January 12, another on January 13, two more on January 15, and three
    more on January 16.

    Two more sunspot groups emerged on January 18.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 146.1 to 167.3, and solar
    flux from 163.3 to 184.1.

    Geomagnetic numbers remained low and practically unchanged, with
    planetary A index moving from 4.9 to 5, and middle latitude A index
    shifting from 4.3 to 3.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 162, 160 and 155 on January 19-21, then 150
    on January 22-23, 152 on January 24-25, 167 on January 26, 170 on
    January 27-29, then 175 and 180 on January 30-31, 185 on February
    1-4, then 187 and 185 on February 5-6, 170 on February 7-8, 175 on
    February 9-10, 190 on February 11-12, then 185, 175, 170 and 165 on
    February 13-16, then 162 on February 17-18, then 160, 160, 165 and
    167 on February 19-22, and 170 on February 23-25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 1, and 10 on January 19-21, then 5
    on January 22-27, 8 on January 28-30, 5 on January 31 through
    February 11, 8 on February 12-14, and 5 on February 15-23, then 12
    on February 24-25.

    In an email report on January 14, Jon Jones, N0JK wrote, "Today
    there are thirteen sunspot groups on the Earthside of the Sun - the
    greatest number so far in Solar Cycle 25. Despite the surfeit of
    sunspots, the Sun has been quiet all weekend. Could it be the calm
    before the storm? One of the sunspots (AR3541) has a delta-class
    magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - January 18, 2024 from OK1HH:

    "We've had two weeks of mostly quiet conditions, with relatively
    high solar activity but only a few flares. And most importantly - no
    CMEs hitting the Earth. In addition, 13 sunspot groups were observed
    on the Sun on January 13 - the highest number in the current 11-year
    cycle. Despite the glut of sunspots, the Sun remained quiet.

    "Shortwave conditions were therefore more influenced by changes in
    solar wind parameters. The exception was on 15 January, when
    shortwave propagation was affected by a sporadic-E layer, which
    occurred over Europe before noon UTC and over the USA later in the
    afternoon UTC.

    "Although solar flares were not massive, they were nevertheless
    accompanied by CMEs on several occasions, but were directed away
    from Earth. The biggest of these left the Sun on January 14 and was
    headed toward Mercury and Venus (these planets can be seen in the
    east before sunrise).

    "We are now expecting solar flares of C-class at 0-2 per day, with
    the rare possibility of a M-class flare. Coronal holes are mostly
    small and do not occur near active regions, which also reduces the
    likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances. Therefore, it appears that
    the current relatively favorable trend will continue."

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI in Northern California operates from a fresh water
    kayak, and sent this report:

    "I was out in the kayak yesterday, January 11, with 10w and a small
    loop. With solar flux at 180+ I expected a lot happening on 10m but
    that was not the case. Was disappointed. Did get a few contacts.
    Heard Chile and Argentina coming in fairly strong (I had no luck
    there) and heard very faintly an Israeli station. Best distance I
    contacted was Bermuda, a VP9, on CW.

    "Went down to 12m and had a few more contacts.

    "Quite a bit of QSB on both bands."

    Dave, N4KZ in Kentucky reported via email:

    "For the second time in the past month I have decoded DX signals on
    8 meters. Several countries have authorized their amateurs to
    operate on 8 meters. The FT8 frequency is 40.680 MHz. On January 14,
    2024, at 1540 UTC I saw a spot for 8 meter activity on the DX Summit
    website. As soon as I moved to that frequency, I decoded several DX
    signals from Europe and the Caribbean. But within a few minutes
    signals faded out.

    "About a month ago, I saw an Irish station work an American station
    who has an experimental license for 8 meters. No other activity was
    heard that time. I know of at least one American on 8 meters with an experimental license. He's in Georgia. I'm not sure if there are
    others.

    "I was using my 3-element 6-meter Yagi up 60 feet to listen. On the
    two occasions I have decoded European stations, they had good
    signals. Offhand, crossing the Atlantic on 40 MHz seems much easier
    than at 50 MHz."

    Tolvo, W8JTM of Liberty Lake, Washington sent this report:

    "The 'Santa Claus Polar Path' described by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA
    (link follows) is well and good! Not sure if it was winter F2
    ionization or Aurora-E, but I had a nice SSB ragchew with OH6RM on
    10 meters on 15 January when it was 11 PM Finland time (2100 UTC),
    well after the MUF had dropped to not support 28 MHz.

    "Signals were 20 dB over S9 with no flutter the whole time, and
    after I signed off, I heard him work station-after-station all over
    the USA for almost two hours with his signal only dropping to S9.
    It was an incredibly solid path for 10 meters from Eastern
    Washington, some 4500 miles.

    "I also worked into Finland on 17 January on 15 meter phone, but
    there was heavy slow flutter on the signals.

    "As reported by Carl, these polar paths are surprisingly reliable in
    Fall and Winter, and I always enjoy working into Finland where my
    parents were from."

    https://k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf[1]

    From Scientific American, a story about the upcoming Solar Eclipse,
    with sunspots this time:

    https://bit.ly/3vESa7r[2]

    An image of Sunspot AR3545 from Sky and Telescope magazine:

    https://bit.ly/48BmDCb[3]

    SciTechDaily article about the Solar peak:

    https://bit.ly/4b4f60g[4]

    An article about a gigantic solar hole:

    https://bit.ly/3O5ful2[5]

    Explanation of the Babcock Model:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babcock_model[6]

    From News Rebeat, the US/Korea to monitor solar storms:

    https://bit.ly/3Snq5ui[7]

    A "Travel and Leisure" article about the Northern Lights with regard
    to a Solar max January to October 2024:

    https://bit.ly/3RXNKQC[8]

    Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/jo0Tg2W4fEE[9]
        
    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Also, check this:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

    Sunspot numbers for January 11 through 17 2024 were 151, 188, 191,
    183, 150, 150, and 158, with a mean of 167.3. 10.7 cm flux was
    192.5, 186.4, 185.4, 187.9, 182.5, 179.6, and 174.1, with a mean of
    184.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 3, 6, 6, 6, and 4,
    with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, and
    3, with a mean of 3.9.

     


    [1] https://k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf
    [2] https://bit.ly/3vESa7r
    [3] https://bit.ly/48BmDCb
    [4] https://bit.ly/4b4f60g
    [5] https://bit.ly/3O5ful2
    [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babcock_model
    [7] https://bit.ly/3Snq5ui
    [8] https://bit.ly/3RXNKQC
    [9] https://youtu.be/jo0Tg2W4fEE
    [10] k7ra@arrl.net
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 26 14:46:04 2024
    01/26/2024

    Just four new sunspot groups emerged this reporting week, January
    18-24, one on each day, January 18-21.

    But it looks like we may see flares, CMEs and geomagnetic storms
    over the next few days. Spaceweather.com[1] identified sunspot
    group AR3561 as "hyperactive."

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined, and geomagnetic indicators
    rose, but only slightly.

    Average daily sunspot number dropped from 167.3 to 130.6, and
    average solar flux from 184.1 to 173.3.

    Average planetary A index rose from 5 to 7.4, and middle latitude
    numbers from 3.9 to 5.1.

    Looking ahead, we may see a short term peak in solar flux centered
    around February 11, and another about six weeks from now.

    Predicted solar flux is 160 on January 26-27, 150 on January 28 to
    February 1, 170 on February 2, 175 on February 3-4, 180 on February
    5-8, then 190, 190 and 195 on February 9-11, then 190 and 185 on
    February 12-13, 180 on February 14-15, then 175. 170, 175, 175, 170,
    175, and 170 on February 16-22, then 165, 160, 165, 160 and 165 on
    February 23-27, 170 on February 28-29, and 175 on March 1-2, then
    180 on March 3-6.

    Predicted planetary A index is 25, 30, 18, 10 and 8 on January
    26-30, then 5 on January 31 through February 16, and 8 on February
    17-18, then 5 on February 19-24, then 10, 12 and 10 on February
    25-27, and 5 on February 28 through early March.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - January 25, 2024, from OK1HH:

    "At the present stage of the 11-year solar cycle, there are five to
    thirteen groups of spots (or active regions) on the Sun. In three of
    them, we can observe such magnetic configuration that allows the
    development of a larger flare, possibly with a CME.

    "On the other hand, there are relatively few coronal holes on the
    Sun, reducing the likelihood of Earth being hit by an enhanced solar
    wind and then geomagnetic disturbances. Therefore, the evolution is
    quieter, and the level of shortwave propagation is a little calmer
    than we might otherwise expect."

    Glenn Packard, K4ZOT reported from Atlanta, Georgia on January 22
    that he worked New Zealand on 6 meter FT8 at 0257 UTC:

    "I just happened to tune to 6M tonight after being disappointed on
    6M for the Winter season.  Then Bloom, ZL4TT, comes through at R-19
    and me at -08.  Just WOW.  Called once and he came right back to me.
    Band then went dead after the contact.  Amateur Radio still has
    surprised this Olde Man."

    Solar Cycle 25 nearing its peak?

    https://bit.ly/3Sv70GF[2]

    Articles about recent Solar activity:

    https://bit.ly/4b6n48Z[3]

    https://bit.ly/3OiSL5r[4]

    https://bit.ly/3Ohoy6L[5]

    A NOAA article about Solar Cycle Progression:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[6]

    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, for January 22:

    https://youtu.be/41LGqYbxsvk[7]

    Did you know she has about 84,500 subscribers?

    New, long program from Dr. Skov for January 25:

    https://youtu.be/wQ7VFh_D2Mw[8]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [13].

    Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[14]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for January 18 through 24 2024 were 113, 137, 144,
    150, 139, 123, and 108, with a mean of 130.6. 10.7 cm flux was
    162.3, 157.4, 166.3, 178.5, 196.1, 180.3, and 172, with a mean of
    173.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 8, 6, 6, 9, 7, and 10,
    with a mean of 7.4. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 4, 5, 6, 5,
    and 7, with a mean of 5.1.

     


    [1] https://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/3Sv70GF
    [3] https://bit.ly/4b6n48Z
    [4] https://bit.ly/3OiSL5r
    [5] https://bit.ly/3Ohoy6L
    [6] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
    [7] https://youtu.be/41LGqYbxsvk
    [8] https://youtu.be/wQ7VFh_D2Mw
    [9] k7ra@arrl.net
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 2 18:59:35 2024
    02/02/2024

    "ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0248 UTC/02 FEBRUARY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "A CME was observed from 01/0800 UT. This CME is expected to pass
    mostly above the Earth, however a glancing blow is possible either
    late UT day 03-Feb or early UT day 04-Feb to cause possible G1-G2
    geomagnetic storming. A coronal hole wind stream may also contribute
    to enhanced geomagnetic activity.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 04-05 FEBRUARY 2024."

    Seven new sunspot groups emerged this reporting week, but solar
    activity was lower. One new spot appeared on January 26, two more on
    January 28, three more on January 30 and one more on January 31.

    Then on February 1 five new sunspot groups emerged, and the daily
    sunspot number rose to 113, far above the average for the previous
    seven days.

    Average daily sunspot number dropped from 130.6 to 71.6, and average
    daily solar flux declined from 173.3 to 145.4.

    Average planetary A index changed from 7.4 to 6.9, while middle
    latitude averages shifted from 5.1 to 5.6.

    What is the outlook for the next month? Looks like a modest peak in
    solar flux at 175 on February 20.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on February 2, 140 on February 3-5, 145
    on February 6-8, then a jump to 165 on February 9-11, 170 on
    February 12, 165 on February 13-15, 170 on February 16-19, 175 on
    February 20, then 170, 165, 160, 150, 140, 135 and 140 on February
    21-27, 145 on February 28-29, and 150 on March 1-2, then 155 on
    March 3-4, 160 on March 5, and 165 on March 6-9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 2-3, then 14, 20 and 8
    on February 4-6, then 5 on February 7-16, 8 on February 17-18, 5 on
    February 19-24, then 10, 12 and 10 on February 25-27, and 5 on
    February 28 through March 2, then 10 on March 3-4, and 5 on March 5
    through the middle of the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 1, 2024, from OK1HH:

    "A week ago, it appeared that more activity would come from the
    large sunspot group AR3561, but it has been quiet. Then another
    larger one, AR3559, surprised us when energetic protons began to
    penetrate the Earth's atmosphere in the early hours of January 29
    UTC.

    "Such an event is called a 'radiation storm,' denoted by the letter
    S, and this one was classified as S2. The letter R denotes the
    effects of solar X-ray and ultraviolet radiation, which in this case
    was caused by a fairly massive M6.8 class solar flare. The Dellinger
    effect with a maximum at 0632 UTC affected frequencies up to 30 MHz
    in the region of Western Australia and the adjacent Indian Ocean.
    Protons with an energy of 100 MeV hit the Earth's atmosphere for
    almost the entire day on 29 January, and protons with lower energies
    continued to hit on the following days.

    "Only isolated, weaker C-class flares were observed in the following
    days. However, the Earth was not affected by the CME; its magnetic
    field remained calm to slightly unsettled, and so shortwave
    propagation conditions were generally between average to slightly
    above average.  However, the increased solar radiation caused
    regular daily openings of the upper shortwave bands, including the
    10-meter band."

    UC Berkeley article on Sunspots:

    https://bit.ly/48ThdlY[1]

    Two articles on a Solar Cycle peak this year:

    https://bit.ly/48Yjcpa[2]

    https://bit.ly/3u53ZDK[3]

    Two articles about the Sun's poles reversing:

    https://bit.ly/4bvvmro[4]

    https://bit.ly/42kfljC[5]

    Times Now article about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/3HGWYfn[6]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [12].

    Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for January 25 through 31 2024 were 101, 97, 52, 75,
    48, 53, and 75, with a mean of 71.8. 10.7 cm flux was 160.5, 156.7,
    148.1, 141.1, 140.3, 135, and 136.2, with a mean of 145.4. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 6, 6, 5, 8, 9, 8, and 6, with a mean of
    6.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 7, with a
    mean of 5.6.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/48ThdlY
    [2] https://bit.ly/48Yjcpa
    [3] https://bit.ly/3u53ZDK
    [4] https://bit.ly/4bvvmro
    [5] https://bit.ly/42kfljC
    [6] https://bit.ly/3HGWYfn
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 9 15:19:32 2024
    02/09/2024

    Over the recent reporting week, February 1-7, ten new sunspot groups
    emerged, five on February 1, one on February 2, another on February
    3, two on February 5, and one more on February 7. On February 8, two
    more emerged.

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose, and geomagnetic numbers were
    quiet.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 71.8 to 142.3, and
    average daily solar flux from 145.4 to 165.5.

    Geomagnetic conditions were quieter. Average daily planetary A index
    decreased from 6.9 to 5.1, and average middle latitude numbers from
    5.6 to 4.4.

    Now let's see what the outlook might be over the next few weeks,
    with data from the US Air Force and NOAA.

    Predicted solar flux is 180 on February 9, then 175, 175, 180 and
    175 on February 10-13, 178 on February 14-15, 170 on February 16,
    160 on February 17-21, then 165 and 160 on February 22-23, 150 on
    February 24-28, then 155, 160 and 165 on February 29 through March
    2, 170 on March 3-5, 160 on March 6-9, 170 on March 10, 165 on March
    11-13, 170 on March 14, and 160 on March 15-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on February 9-11, 5 on
    February 12-25, then 8 and 7 on February 26-27, then 5 on February
    28 through March 2, 10 on March 3-4, 5 on March 5-23.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 8, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "As recently as early January, it appeared that the peak of the
    current eleven-year cycle would soon be passed, or perhaps even
    passed late last year. But January's upsurge in solar activity led
    us astray, and February, it seems, could be even more lively.

    "Surprise number two is that although we are seeing moderate flares
    on the Sun, some of which are proton flares and a few of which are
    accompanied by CMEs, the solar wind around the Earth is intensifying
    little.

    "Surprise number three, though related to the previous one, is the
    decline in the Earth's magnetic field activity for more than a
    month.

    "Finally, surprise number four is that although solar activity is
    relatively high, while geomagnetic activity is low, the shortwave
    propagation conditions (as defined at frequencies of 3-30 MHz) are
    not nearly as good as we have become accustomed to during decades of
    similar developments.

    "Even from the proton solar flare with CME ejection observed on
    February 6, we expect the Earth to be hit by an enhanced solar wind
    with a subsequent, at least slight, rise in geomagnetic field
    activity. This should occur between evening hours of UTC 9 February,
    and the following morning. So, the question is slowly emerging
    whether it will be more of a surprise if the disturbance starts or
    if it doesn't."

    Reader David Moore sent this article about slow moving solar flares:

    https://bit.ly/498uM16[1]

    Articles about the consequences of a modern Carrington Event:

    https://bit.ly/49vdPgW[2]

    https://bit.ly/3wf09bS[3]

    Two stories about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/4bzFQpM[4]

    https://bit.ly/3UztJTd[5]

    Nice pictures of a Big Sunspot:

    https://solarchatforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=43915[6]

    https://bit.ly/3uvFJL5[7]

    Our first Solar Maximum?

    https://www.sidc.be/article/first-sc25-maximum[8]

    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/dKZ-qeDbxkc[9]

    Solar news articles:

    https://bit.ly/3uqpnmV[10]

    https://bit.ly/3SMk8Y1[11]

    https://bit.ly/3SPqwxD[12]

    https://bit.ly/4bw6j7y[13]

    https://bit.ly/49Kyoq7[14]

    https://bit.ly/42v9xns[15]

    https://bit.ly/3SzUzrQ[16]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[17]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[18] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[19] . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[20] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[21] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[22] .

    Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[23]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[24] .

    Sunspot numbers for February 1 through 7 2024 were 113, 131, 123,
    138, 152, 175, and 164, with a mean of 142.3. 10.7 cm flux was
    136.9, 142.6, 156.4, 170.4, 173.4, 190.3, and 188.4, with a mean of
    165.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 3, 6, 7, 8, and 4,
    with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 2, 5, 6, 8,
    and 3, with a mean of 4.4.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/498uM16
    [2] https://bit.ly/49vdPgW
    [3] https://bit.ly/3wf09bS
    [4] https://bit.ly/4bzFQpM
    [5] https://bit.ly/3UztJTd
    [6] https://solarchatforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=43915
    [7] https://bit.ly/3uvFJL5
    [8] https://www.sidc.be/article/first-sc25-maximum
    [9] https://youtu.be/dKZ-qeDbxkc
    [10] https://bit.ly/3uqpnmV
    [11] https://bit.ly/3SMk8Y1
    [12] https://bit.ly/3SPqwxD
    [13] https://bit.ly/4bw6j7y
    [14] https://bit.ly/49Kyoq7
    [15] https://bit.ly/42v9xns
    [16] https://bit.ly/3SzUzrQ
    [17] k7ra@arrl.net
    [18] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [19] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [20] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [21] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [22] http://k9la.us/
    [23] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [24] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 16 15:34:05 2024
    02/16/2024

    Seven new sunspot groups appeared over the past week, February 8-14,
    two on February 8, three on February 10, and two more on February 13
    and 14.

    Then on February 15 three more sunspots emerged.

    Now this is a personal opinion, but from recent numbers I suspect
    that we may at the peak of Solar Cycle 25 or just prior to the peak.
    We won't know when the actual peak occurred until six months after.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 142.3 to 134.6, but
    average daily solar flux increased from 165.5 to 190.

    I don't know why the solar numbers were so seemingly out of whack,
    but average daily sunspot number declined as average daily solar
    flux rose, by a lot.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 5.1 to 7.4, while middle
    latitude numbers from 4.4 to 6.1.

    The most active day was February 11 with planetary A index rising to
    15, but that is hardly stormy. This was caused by an unexpected CME
    impact at 0211 UTC according to Spaceweather.com.

    So, what is the outlook for the next few weeks?

    Concerning solar flux, it seems we are currently in the midst of a
    peak over the next few days at 185 and 182 on February 15-16, then
    another short term peak at 170 on March 3-10.

    On February 17-23 the forecast sees the flux at 175, 172, 170, 165,
    175, 165 and 160, then 150 on February 24-28, then 155, 160 and 165
    on February 29 through March 2, then 170 on March 3-10, 165 on March
    11-3, 170 on March 14, 160 on March 15-19, then 162, 165 and 160 on
    March 20-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 16-18, 8 on February
    19, 5 on February 20-25, then 8 and 7 on February 26-27, then 5 on
    February 28 through March 23.

    This is the same data that appeared in the ARRL Letter on Thursday,
    which was the report from February 14.

    Unfortunately, NOAA did not post the updated forecast on Thursday.
    Thursday evening, I phoned the NOAA forecast desk, and they didn't
    have the data from US Air Force. I then phoned the 557 Weather Wing
    at Offutt Air Force Base and was told they had a major network
    outage Thursday afternoon, and the data may be lost.

    Fortunately, the phone numbers at both locations are answered 24-7.

    If you need an updated forecast, check:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt[1]

    It is normally updated every day after 2200 UTC.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 15, 2024 from OK1HH:

    "Over the past week, we saw the transition of two large active
    regions with complex magnetic configurations on the solar disk:
    AR3575 followed by AR3576, which will be at the western limb of the
    disk on February 16.

    "More massive flares, including proton flares accompanied by CME
    were observed in both regions. Protons from the flares bombarded the
    Earth's atmosphere for most of the days. CMEs, however, hit the
    Earth with little or no impact. This included a strong X3.4 class
    solar flare followed by a S2 class radiation storm on 9th February.
    Energetic solar protons impacted the upper layers of the Earth's
    atmosphere and caused mainly polar cap absorption (PCA). This
    significantly increased the attenuation of radio signals at high
    latitudes.

    "We could also guess whether the CMEs were just delayed since the
    eruptions of 9 and 10 February and would not arrive until 13
    February, or whether they would miss the Earth. NASA guessed that
    they would arrive. But the correct answer was they missed, which was
    confirmed by the more or less calm development on 14 February.

    "After the sunset of the two large active regions AR3575 and AR3576,
    solar activity will decrease. However, helioseismological
    observations indicate the presence of active regions on the far side
    of the Sun. After their ascent to the solar disk, solar activity
    will increase again since early March. Solar activity should be
    highest between March 3 and 10. Meanwhile, geomagnetic activity
    should continue to be low. Therefore, we expect an improvement in
    shortwave propagation conditions.

    "F.K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH, http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/ "

    This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL International DX contest.
    Details can be found at:

    https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[2]

    Two articles about a CME and flares:

    https://bit.ly/3OHvtpZ[3]

    https://bit.ly/49zgoia[4]

    Three days of sunspots:

    https://bit.ly/3SJhbGi[5]

    Multiple pictures of Sunspot region 13585:

    https://bit.ly/3UFVhGQ[6]

    Bob, KB1DK, from Connecticut wrote:

    "During the last two weeks, activity on 10 meter SSB was bustling,
    and included many POTA, SOTA, and mobile stations in Europe. In
    fact, I heard Europeans on 12 meters saying they moved to that band
    because 10 became so busy. Propagation on 10 has been very good from
    southern New England, resulting in multiple QSOs with India and New
    Zealand. QSOs with the middle east are almost routine now.

    "My occasional fixed mobile operating has been extremely productive
    and satisfying. I strongly recommend taking advantage of these great
    conditions on 10 meters while we have them."

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

    Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

    Sunspot numbers for February 8 through 14 2024 were 149, 105, 146,
    144, 153, 122, and 123, with a mean of 134.6. 10.7 cm flux was 185,
    183.4, 193.8, 180.4, 208.3, 194.8, and 184.1, with a mean of 190.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 5, 15, 4, 10, and 7, with a
    mean of 7.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 12, 4, 8, and 6,
    with a mean of 6.1.
     


    [1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt
    [2] https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
    [3] https://bit.ly/3OHvtpZ
    [4] https://bit.ly/49zgoia
    [5] https://bit.ly/3SJhbGi
    [6] https://bit.ly/3UFVhGQ
    [7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 23 15:47:57 2024
    02/23/2024

    "ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0237 UTC/22 FEBRUARY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "A solar filament has erupted from the northwest solar quadrant and
    a component of the predominately westward associated CME is expected
    to arrive at the Earth during the second half of 24-Feb. G1 conditions, with the chance of G2 periods are possible during the second half of 24-Feb and first half of 25-Feb. Modeling shows the bulk of the CME missing the Earth.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 24-25 FEBRUARY 2024."

    Spaceweather.com[1] wrote on February 22:

    "TWO MAJOR SOLAR FLARES: Giant sunspot AR3590 just unleashed two
    major X-class solar flares. The double blast approximately coincided
    with a widely reported outage of cell phone service; however,
    experts agree that the flares were probably not responsible. More
    flares are in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'delta-class'
    magnetic field, and it is turning toward Earth."

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux values dropped over the past week,
    with average daily sunspot numbers down from 134.6 to 84.4 and
    average daily solar flux dropping from 190 to 164.

    Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet. Planetary A index declined
    from the low value of 7.4 to 4.4, and middle latitude A index from
    6.1 to 3.5.

    Only four new sunspot groups appeared, three on February 15 and one
    on February 18.

    Spaceweather.com says all their content is written by humans, with
    no Artificial Intelligence at all.

    I decided to ask an AI bot when Solar Cycle 25 will peak:

    From Gemini AI bot:

    "There are two main perspectives on when Solar Cycle 25 will reach
    its maximum:

    "Original prediction:

    "An expert panel convened by NOAA, NASA, and ISES in 2019 predicted
    a peak in July 2025 with a maximum sunspot number of 115.

    "This prediction assumed a similar strength to the weak Solar Cycle
    24.

    "Revised prediction:

    "In October 2023, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)
    released a revised prediction based on observed activity. This new
    prediction suggests a faster rise and higher peak, likely between
    January and October 2024, with a sunspot number between 137 and 173.

    "However, it's important to note that the timing could still fall
    within the broad error range of November 2024 to March 2026.

    "So, the answer depends on which prediction you consider:

    "Original prediction: July 2025

    "Revised prediction: Between January and October 2024 (more likely
    than July 2025).

    "It's important to stay updated on the latest information as
    scientists continue to monitor the Sun's activity. You can find more
    details and updates on the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
    website:

    "https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[2]

    "END AI BOT CONTENT."

    I have bookmarked that last link.

    ISES stands for the International Space Environment Service.

    Here is a revised outlook for the next month, from USAF via NOAA.

    Predicted solar flux is 175 on February 23, 180 on February 24-29,
    then 160 and 165 on March 1-2, 170 on March 3-9, 165 on March 10-16,
    then 162, 160, and 165 on March 17-19, 170 on March 20-21, 172 on
    March 22-23, 165 on March 24-26, and 155, 160, and 165 on March
    27-29, and 170 on March 30 into the first week in April.

    Predicted planetary A index is 6, 5, 20 and 10 on February 23-26,
    and 5 on February 27 through March 23, 8 and 7 on March 24-25, and 5
    on March 26 through the first week in April.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 23-29, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "During the last seven days, based on helioseismological
    observations we first expected the rise of a larger active region at
    the northeastern limb of the solar disk.

    "Meanwhile, gradually most of the sunspot groups on its western half
    have faded, whereby the solar flux has dropped to 152.

    "The larger active region came out, was designated AR3590, and is
    large enough to observe with the naked eye (in relation to the area
    over 700 millionths of the solar disk), for example, using a solar
    eclipse filter. However, its beta-gamma magnetic configuration was
    not conducive to larger flares. All the more surprising were two
    successive X-class flares: X1.8 on 21 February with a maximum at
    2307 UT and X.1.7 on 22 February with a maximum at 0632 UT. However,
    they were short-lived and not accompanied by CMEs. During the first
    of these, shortwave propagation subsided, particularly in the
    western USA and the Pacific (the Dellinger effect).

    "Expect an increase in solar X-ray and ultraviolet radiation in the
    coming days and mostly geomagnetically quiet conditions. As Spring
    approaches, shortwave propagation will be mostly above average or
    even better."

    K7BTW posted this to the Western Washington DX Club email list on
    February 20:

    "Fantastic band conditions.

    "If you're not taking advantage of these band conditions, you are
    missing a lot. On 20 meters FT8 in the last few minutes around 8pm
    (0400 UTC) I worked Middle East stations in Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi
    Arabia, and Qatar, plus several UN and many Russians. Over the pole
    conditions are incredible.

    "Take advantage of the sunspot cycle.  We know what it will be like
    in 5 years!"

    Jeff, N8II wrote on February 16:

    "If we are at the peak, I would think this is a poor cycle.

    "Not long ago the flux dropped below 130 briefly.

    "10 meter conditions are excellent now with much better conditions
    to East Asia in the evening than the first 3 weeks of January.

    "Today at 2400 UTC 10 meters was open well to Taiwan working BX5AA
    and also a BD4 around 0030 UTC. Japanese signals were excellent
    until just before 0100 UTC. I heard 8R7X in Guyana running many
    Japanese until 0100 UTC on 10 CW."

    Here in Seattle where I (K7RA) live we have always had a pipeline to
    Japan, which at times can seem overwhelming.

    Reader David Moore sent this article from the European Space Agency:

    https://tinyurl.com/bdz3uxnp[3]

    Articles about powerful Solar Flares:

    https://tinyurl.com/5ysj6xyt[4]

    https://tinyurl.com/vkyfpyr4[5]

    https://tinyurl.com/mrxa7uhb[6]

    GeoNews article about the Solar max:

    https://tinyurl.com/53zena9c[7]

    Big sunspot AR3590 visible to the eye:

    https://tinyurl.com/mrbw3fms[8]

    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/T292oXH12Hk[9]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

    Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[16]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

    Sunspot numbers for February 15 through 21 2024 were 151, 97, 100,
    84, 64, 50, and 45, with a mean of 84.4. 10.7 cm flux was 178.3,
    168.8, 169.9, 156.5, 152.1, 152.6, and 169.9, with a mean of 164.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 4, 6, 3, 6, and 4, with a
    mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 4, 4, 1, 5, and 3,
    with a mean of 3.3.
     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
    [3] https://tinyurl.com/bdz3uxnp
    [4] https://tinyurl.com/5ysj6xyt
    [5] https://tinyurl.com/vkyfpyr4
    [6] https://tinyurl.com/mrxa7uhb
    [7] https://tinyurl.com/53zena9c
    [8] https://tinyurl.com/mrbw3fms
    [9] https://youtu.be/T292oXH12Hk
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [15] http://k9la.us/
    [16] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 1 20:01:04 2024
    03/01/2024

    "ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2208 UTC/29 FEBRUARY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "A filament eruption was observed at 28/0855UT from the solar
    southeast quadrant. The associated CME has been determined to
    contain an Earth-directed component, with an arrival to Earth's
    magnetosphere at 02/1100 UTC +/- 12 hours. G1 geomagnetic conditions
    are expected.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 02-03 MARCH 2024."

    Seven new sunspot groups emerged this week, four on February 23, one
    on February 25, another on February 26 and one more on February 28.

    Solar activity increased this reporting week, February 22-28,
    compared to the week before. Average daily sunspot number rose from
    84.4 to 108.4, and solar flux from 164 to 175.

    Geomagnetic conditions were quiet, though the numbers rose.
    Planetary A index went from 4.4 to 8.4, and middle latitude numbers
    from 3.3 to 7.4.

    The predicted solar flux is 160, 155, and 160 on March 1-3, 165 on
    March 4-5, 160 and 165 on March 6-7, 165 on March 8-9, 168 on March
    10, then 165 on March 11-12, 160 on March 13-14, then 168 and 172 on
    March 15-16, then 175, 175 and 178 on March 17-19, 180 on March
    20-24, and 175 on March 25-26, then 180 and 175 on March 27-28, 170
    on March 29-30, 172 on March 31 to April 1, 170 on April 2, and 165
    on April 3-5.
     
    The predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 12 and 10 on March 1-4,
    then 5 on March 5-23, then 15, 12 and 12 on March 24-26, and 5 on
    March 27 to mid-April.

    Spaceweather.com[1] reported on giant sunspot AR3590:  "In only 23
    hours spanning February 21-22, the active region unleashed three
    powerful X-class solar flares (X1.8, X1.7 and X6.3). The X6.3 flare
    is the strongest of Solar Cycle 25, so far, and the most powerful
    flare since the great solar storms of September 2017."

    Because there were no CMEs, there were no geomagnetic storms, but
    extreme ultraviolet radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere
    and caused several shortwave blackouts over Hawaii and Australia on
    February 21-22.

    Sunspot group AR3590 is the largest of the current solar cycle.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 29, 2024 from OK1HH:

    "Over the past seven days, we have seen the deflection of an active
    region of AR3590 on the Sun, 760 millionths of the size of the solar
    disk. On February 25, it already occupied an area of 1450
    millionths, making it the largest group of spots so far since the
    beginning of the 25th cycle. It produced its largest and extra
    proton flares on February 21-22, including three X-class flares in
    23 hours. The largest of these, X6.3 on 22 February, with a maximum
    at 2324 UT, was the most important flare since the beginning of
    Solar Cycle 25.

    "Proton flares were no exception and caused an absorption in the
    polar cap (PCA). The first of these was recorded on 9 February in
    the already setting region AR3575. At the same time, there was a
    region AR3576 in the southeast of the solar disk, which will rise
    again in the next few days, so we do not have to worry about a
    decrease in solar activity.

    "With the exception of the unsettled days of February 25-27, the
    geomagnetic field was mostly calm. We expect a similar pattern in
    the coming weeks. Ideally, the mostly calm development could last
    until the Spring Equinox. If this happens, shortwave propagation
    conditions will be mostly above average."

    This weekend is the ARRL International DX SSB contest. For details
    see:

    https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[2]

    Some articles about solar basics:

    https://www.ktvh.com/news/weather-wise/weather-wise-sunspots[3]

    https://bit.ly/49AmNKf[4]

    https://bit.ly/3V0biHJ[5]

    https://bit.ly/3wE1Orx[6]

    https://star-hunter.ru/en/sunspots-2024-02-28/[7]

    Popular Science article about a Solar Minima:

    https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-quiet/[8]

    I do not trust the data or the correlations in this article, but
    there is some interesting content here:

    https://bit.ly/48Ablxc[9]

    Latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/V-PQSkYYEB4[10]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

    Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

    Sunspot numbers for February 22 through 28 2024 were 46, 116, 106,
    114, 133, 103, and 127, with a mean of 106.4. 10.7 cm flux was
    173.3, 172.9, 179.2, 180.8, 171.7, 168.3, and 179.1, with a mean of
    175. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 3, 7, 13, 11, 13, and 6,
    with a mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 6, 2, 6, 14, 10, 9,
    and 5, with a mean of 7.4.

     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
    [3] https://www.ktvh.com/news/weather-wise/weather-wise-sunspots
    [4] https://bit.ly/49AmNKf
    [5] https://bit.ly/3V0biHJ
    [6] https://bit.ly/3wE1Orx
    [7] https://star-hunter.ru/en/sunspots-2024-02-28/
    [8] https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-quiet/
    [9] https://bit.ly/48Ablxc
    [10] https://youtu.be/V-PQSkYYEB4
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] http://k9la.us/
    [17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 8 17:13:39 2024
    03/08/2024

    Until March 6, new sunspot groups emerged daily over the past
    reporting week, February 29 through March 6.

    One new sunspot group appeared every day on February 29 through
    March 3, then two new groups on March 4 and another on March 5.

    It seems odd, but average daily sunspot number was about the same
    (changing from 106.4 to 106.7), but the average daily solar flux had
    a substantial drop, from 175 to 147.4.

    Average daily planetary A index was up from 8.4 to 10, while middle
    latitude numbers rose from 7.4 to 8.

    The March 3 planetary A index was 29. Spaceweather.com[1] reported a G2 geomagnetic storm at 0930 UTC. On March 7 they said NOAA expects a
    minor storm on March 9.

    The solar flux forecast sees a short term peak at 180 on March 21-23
    and another on April 17-19.

    Predicted solar flux is 140 on March 8-9, 145 on March 10-12, then
    140 and 135 on March 13-14, then 170 on March 15-16, then 165, 160,
    170 and 175 on March 17-20, 180 on March 21-23, 175 on March 24-25,
    170 on March 26-27, 160 on March 28-29, then 165 and 145 on March
    30-31, then 140 on April 1-2, 135 on April 3-8, and 140, 160, 170,
    170, 165 and 160 on April 9-14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on March 8-10, 5 on March 11-23,
    then 15, 12, 12, 5, 10, and 8 on March 24-29, and 5 on March 30
    through April 5, then 12 and 10 on April 6-7, and 5 on April 8
    through the middle of the month and beyond.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - March 7, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:
     
    "Active region AR3590 which swelled to the largest of the 25th solar
    cycle in February and where the largest flare was observed, was
    located on the northwestern limb of the disk in early March,
    whereupon it was observed by the Mars rover Perseverance from Jezero
    Crater (Jezero means Lake in Czech).

    "From the solar flare on February 28, the CME arrived at Earth on
    March 3 - one day later than predicted. It triggered a G3 class
    geomagnetic disturbance, which began by developing a positive storm
    phase with a significant increase in MUF. It continued over the next
    three days in a negative phase with a significant decrease in MUF
    and an increase in attenuation, especially in the polar regions.

    "Neither major flares nor major geomagnetic activity are expected in
    the next few days. Therefore, propagation will gradually improve to
    slightly above average. We expect a significant improvement around
    the equinox. This time, however, the improvement will be more
    pronounced as solar activity will gradually increase in the
    meantime."

    The Vernal Equinox occurs at 0306 UTC, March 20 and marks the
    beginning of Spring in the Northern Hemisphere and the Autumnal
    Equinox in the Southern Hemisphere.

    Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research is looking for
    volunteers:

    https://bit.ly/4a43yZk[2]

    From DailyMotion, an August 2022 solar video:

    https://bit.ly/3v0RARw[3]

    Space.com article about the April 8 solar eclipse:

    https://bit.ly/3PdXnKl[4]

    Eclipse missions:

    https://stardate.org/podcast/2024-03-07[5]

    An article about solar dynamo behavior during a Grand Solar Minima:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-55317-w[6]

    From LiveScience, is the peak of Solar Cycle 25 already here?

    https://bit.ly/3Taxe0p[7]

    A quiet Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3T98PIh[8]

    Thanks to W7WKR for this article about Maritime Radio Historical
    Society Station KPH:

    https://bit.ly/49Fpjiz[9]

    [Station K6KPH also transmits W1AW Qualifying Run transmissions: https://www.radiomarine.org/mrhs-stations/blog-post-title-four-r3jyw[10]
    -Ed.]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

    Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

    Sunspot numbers for February 29 through March 6 2024 were 107, 120,
    91, 90, 113, 121, and 105, with a mean of 106.7. 10.7 cm flux was
    164.1, 152.8, 152.3, 145.5, 139.9, 141.5, and 136, with a mean of
    147.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 9, 5, 29, 10, 7, and 6,
    with a mean of 10. Middle latitude A index was 4, 9, 3, 20, 8, 7,
    and 5, with a mean of 8.
    NNNN
    /EX

     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/4a43yZk
    [3] https://bit.ly/3v0RARw
    [4] https://bit.ly/3PdXnKl
    [5] https://stardate.org/podcast/2024-03-07
    [6] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-55317-w
    [7] https://bit.ly/3Taxe0p
    [8] https://bit.ly/3T98PIh
    [9] https://bit.ly/49Fpjiz
    [10] https://www.radiomarine.org/mrhs-stations/blog-post-title-four-r3jyw
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] http://k9la.us/
    [17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS