• THe K7RA Solar Update

    From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 12 16:18:08 2020
    06/12/2020

    Sunspots made a solid reappearance over this reporting week (June 4-10) with average daily sunspot number rising from 3.3 to 14. As expected, solar flux also increased, and the average daily 10.7 cm solar flux rose from 69.6 to 71.3.

    With renewed solar activity, so many radio amateurs staying home, and the increasing popularity of new weak signal modes, there is a lot happening on the air in amateur radio today.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 6 to 5.1, while average daily middle latitude A index changed from 5.7 to 6.1.

    The outlook for the next 45 days has solar flux at 72 on June 12-14, 70 on June 15-16, 68 on June 17-24, 70 on June 25-26, 72 on June 27 through July 11, 70 on July 12-13, 68 on July 14-21, 70 on July 22-23, and 72 on July 24-26.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 12 through July 3, then 8 and 12 on July 4-5, and 5 on July 6-26.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 12 to July 7, 2020 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be

    quiet on June 16, 20, 23-25, July 1-4

    quiet to unsettled on: June 12-14, 17-19, 21-22, 28-30, July 6

    quiet to active on: (June 15, 26-27, July 5, 7)

    unsettled to active on: nothing predicted

    active to disturbed: nothing predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on: June (16-17, 26-30,) July 5-7

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are very few

    indications.

     

    KD6JUI reports, "Saturday, June 6, was a good day for operating with 10 watts and a short vertical dipole from a small pedal boat on Pine Mountain Lake in northern California. Around 2 PM local time I heard an Argentinian CW station coming in loud and clear on 15 meters, then was able to work JR7TKG using SSB on 17 meters. Quite amazing."

     

    A new solar cycle prediction method, the Sun Clock. https://bit.ly/2AlwjWy[1]

     

    KZ1W reported 6-meter openings to an email list for the Western Washington DX Club on June 10, "Terrific opening to New England this afternoon. Only missed Rhode Island. N7QT was hammering them also. No DX, but this was great."

     

    Joe, KC8RAN, reported from Waxahachie, Texas, also on June 10, "Normally I don't work 6 meters, but decided to check it out today. On WSJT-X there were a few stations on around 1530Z, so I gave it a whirl. I was able to contact VE3OTL with reasonable reports of -08db (his) and -09db (mine), just before the band closed on my end. Going from EM12 just south of Dallas, Texas to EN76 in Canada (around 1150 miles) was quite a surprise, considering I was using my G5RV Jr antenna as an inverted U 25 feet high in the attic. While I was unable to complete the contact with N2CB in nearby EN75, it was nice to see I can do the magic band. Time to build that 6-meter antenna!"

     

    Rich Zwirko, K1HTV, reported on June 8: "In the past 2 days the 6-meter band has shown us in the Mid-Atlantic area some more magic. On Sunday, June 7 there were two multi-hour 50 MHz DX openings from Europe and the islands off Western Africa to the western edge of FM18ap in Virginia. The first opening ran from 1525Z to 1830Z with FT8 mode stations worked on 6-meters in CT3, DL, EA, EA8, EI, F, G, I, ON and PA.

    "Joe Taylor, K1JT reported on the WSJT-X Development Group reflector that on June 7, in just 44 minutes, using the FT4 mode, he made 39 DX contacts using the FT4 mode on 50.318 MHz.

    "The second opening on June 7 into this area ran from 2045 to 2345Z.  During this session, FT8 stations in CT, EA, EI, F, G, GW, IS0 and PA were worked. The countries best represented in the June 7 log were Spain (15), France (13), UK (8) and Canary Islands (7). A total 67 FT8 DX contacts were logged on Sunday, June 7. Most were made on 50.313 MHz.

    "I went down to the shack early Monday, June 8, after seeing spots for European stations from some W3 land stations located about 100 miles northeast of my location. I began seeing weak decodes before 1100Z. Between 1100 and 1200Z I worked 8 stations in YU, LZ and 9A. At the start of the 1200Z hour I added FT8 QSOs with G, SV, HA. The first of two exciting moments came when I called and worked TA1BM in Turkey for my 6-meter DXCC country #162.

    "The second big surprise occurred at 1314z when I completed an FT8 contact
    with  OD5KU in Lebanon for 6-meter country #163.

    "As I write this email near the end of the June 8 UTC day, 51 DX stations in 20 countries have been worked today, including 9A, CN, CU, EA, EA6, EA8, EA9, G, GU, HA, I, J7, LZ, OD, SV, TA, VE, YO, YU and I even worked a KB3 who answered my 'CQ DX' call from Maryland. Thirty-six of the 51 FT8 contacts were on 50.313 MHz. Fifteen FT8 contacts were on 50.323 MHz. I heard no activity on the 50.318 FT frequency.

    "That's it for Sunday and today. I wonder what the Magic Band will serve up next. I hope that in the days and weeks to come, DX propagation that we enjoyed in the eastern US will soon be experienced by stations farther west in the country."

     

    Dick, K2KA, reported from Westford, Massachusetts on June 8: "Today from 1000z to now (1924z) 6-meters has been open to Europe, Africa, and the Caribbean from here FN42.

    "With my bent M2 6M5XHP antenna (thanks to a tornado on May 15) at 40 feet I worked four new countries (ZB2GI, Z32KF, TA1BM and J35X) and printed 5 more (OD5KU and ET, 6W1TA, 4X4DK, A92HK, 5B60AIF). At 1916z I worked J35X. This is the longest I have ever seen the Magic Ban" open.

    "Concerning the tornado, it caused a tree to fall on my barn and 6-meter beam and bent a few elements (D1 is badly bent), but the antenna still loads. Another twenty or so large pines (2 feet or more in diameter) came down and took out my 160-meter Inverted L antenna, my G5RV antenna, and damaged my AS G5RV. The G5RVs made by Davis RF did not themselves break, but the rope holding them up did. The wind was estimated to be 120 MPH. I took pictures of the devastation, but they just don't do it justice. It cost $3800 to cut up and remove the trees.

    "Soon I will be replacing the M2 5-element beam with the M2 6M7JHV 7-elment on a 30-foot boom. I sure wish I had that up today!"

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

    Sunspot numbers for June 4 through 10, 2020 were 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 14, and 11, with a mean of 14. 10.7 cm flux was 70.1, 71.1, 71.6, 71.6, 71, 72.4, and 71, with a mean of 71.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 9, 4, 5, and 7, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 2, 10, 6, 5, and 11, with a mean of 6.1.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/2AlwjWy
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 19 15:36:48 2020
    06/19/2020

    We just experienced a nearly two-week period of sunspots appearing every day.

    It's been quite some time since we've witnessed a continuous string of sunspot activity such as what we've experienced over the past two weeks. Back on January 24 through February 1, 2020 were nine consecutive days with sunspot activity, but to find any longer period of sunspot appearances requires a look back to May 3-18 of 2019. Perhaps this is an indication we've now moved past the sunspot minimum. You can access these older records via ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/[1].

    Average daily sunspot number for this reporting week (June 11-17) was 7.9, down from 14 over the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux slipped from 71.3 to 70.

    Planetary A index went from 5.1 to 3.9, and average middle latitude A index changed from 6.1 to 4.9.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on June 19-26, then 68 on June 27 through August 2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, and nothing other than 5, every day over the next 45 days, from June 19 through August 2.

    Regular followers of solar flux and planetary A-index predictions may find the forecast from June 17 amusing. None of it is correct. See it at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/061745DF.txt[2]. I alerted NOAA, and it was fixed in the following day's forecast.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 19 until July 14, 2020 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be...

    quiet on: June 22-24, 29-30, July 1-3, 8-10

    quiet to unsettled on: June 19 -21, 27-28, July 7, 11, 13-14

    quiet to active on: (June 25-26, July 4-6, 12)

    unsettled to active on: not predicted

    active to disturbed: not predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on: June (26-30,) July 4-7

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - The predictability of changes remains lower as there are very few

    indications.

     

    Ken Brown, N4SO, is enjoying using the map at pskreporter.info as a propagation tool. "With the PSKreporter map set for 21 MHz, FT8 mode, call sign N4SO with the time set for last hour, do I have propagation to China, Japan or Taiwan between 2100 to 2200 UTC?

    "The map shows that yes, I do have spots in the FT8 mode, from my CQ and working a station a few minutes ago from a couple of stations in China, multiple stations in Japan, and one in Taiwan, as seen on the display map on the right side of the image. It shows a path to China when I do not have decoding from any Chinese stations in the FT8 mode on 21.074 MHz from the software. The other spots on the PSK map are also mine from previous transmissions."

     

    Michael, W6MVT, in Upland, California wrote, "A most amazing evening here on the west coast, as ten meters was open and pretty strong to most of the country. Along with another station I had a chance to work ten stations leapfrogging all the way to the east coast. The bad news: I had to be reminded to be a courteous operator and not hog the calling frequency. A good reminder while carried away in the heat of the QSO moment."

    I will assume he was using FT8, but this is a good time to remind readers, when sending in reports, don't forget important details, such as the mode you were using.

     

    Here is an interesting article about the Solar Orbiter: https://bit.ly/2BkzZIc[3]

     

    On Monday Ken Brown, N4SO, sent this report on FT8 on 15 meters:

    21.074 MHZ

    Digital mode FT8

    "Early morning propagation to Asia on 21 MHz is now consistent
    with end of decoding signals averaging local time 2:30 AM (0730 UTC).
    I have Japan and this Indonesia station for example.

    "072600 -16  0.3 1442 ~  CQ YG9WKB PI88     Indonesia

    Also, early in the evening, local time 9 PM (0200 UTC), there is
    propagation on 21 MHz on a path to Virginia (WZ4K), Michigan (W2GLD)
    extending all the way to Asiatic Russia and RV0AR, Pavel in Sosnovoborsk, Russia. This station was easily worked at 0248 UTC.

    "024800 -16  0.1 1121 ~  N4SO RV0AR R-18"


    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

    Sunspot numbers for June 11 through 17, 2020 were 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 0, and 0, with a mean of 7.9. 10.7 cm flux was 71.5, 70.5, 69.4, 70.2, 70.4, 69.3, and 68.8, with a mean of 70. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 2, 4, 5, and 5, with a mean of 3.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 6, 4, 3, 5, 7, and 5, with a mean of 4.9.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/
    [2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/061745DF.txt
    [3] https://bit.ly/2BkzZIc
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 26 15:54:55 2020
    06/26/2020

    No sunspots were observed since June 15, when the daily sunspot number was 11. This does not mean there were 11 sunspots seen, but instead it means that one sunspot group was observed containing one sunspot. The sunspot number is derived by assigning 10 points for each sunspot group, and one point for each sunspot. So, 11 is the minimum non-zero sunspot number.

    On June 8, the daily sunspot number was 17, indicating 7 sunspots in one group.

    If those seven sunspots had been in two groups, the sunspot number would be reported as 27.

    Last week's bulletin ARLP025 reported average daily sunspot number of 7.9, and of course with no sunspots, this week that number dropped to zero.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 70 to 67.7.

    The sun has gone quiet again, as Spaceweather.com reported this week.

    Geomagnetic indicators are still quiet, but the average planetary A index rose from 3.9 to 4.6 and the average middle latitude A index rose from 4.9 to 5.6. These values are insignificant.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 69 on June 26 through July 3, 70 on July 4-12, 68 on July 13-25, 70 on July 26 through August 8 and 68 on August 9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 26, 8 on June 27, 5 on June 28 through July 3, then 8, 5, 8 and 8 on July 4-7, 5 on July 8-30, then 8, 5, 8 and 8 again on July 31 through August 3, and 5 on August 4-9.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 26 until July 22, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

     

    Geomagnetic field will be

    quiet on: June 28, 30, July 1, (2,) 3, (6,) 9-11, 14-15, 18-20, 22

    quiet to unsettled on: June 27, 29, July 4, 8, 12-13, 17, 21

    quiet to active on: (June 26, July 5, 7, 16)

    unsettled to active: nothing predicted

    active to disturbed: nothing predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on: June 26-27, (28-30,) July (4,) 5-8,

    (9-10, 16-18, 22)

    Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    The predictability of changes remains lower as there are very few indications.

     

    A new video from Dr Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/0bs3cHgBrVw[1]

     

    Phys.org has an article on inner workings of our Sun: https://phys.org/news/2020-06-motions-sun-reveal-sunspot.html[2]

     

    Here is a highly technical article on sunspots from Astronomy and Astrophysics: https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/forth/aa37739-20.pdf[3]

     

    This weekend is ARRL Field Day, the most popular annual operating event. The 2020 Field Day has a rule waiver for this year allowing Class D stations operating from home and on commercial power to work each other. In the past they could only work all the other classes of stations.

    Some operators don't realize that Field Day has only minimal logging requirements, just submit a list or dupe sheet for each band/mode showing the calls of the stations worked, and a summary sheet. There is no requirement to log the time of each contact, or even record the section or any report from stations you work. See the rules at: http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Field-Day/2020/1_61-2020%20Rules.pdf[4]

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for June 18 through 24, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 67.9, 68.8, 67.8, 67.6, 67.6, 67.1, and 66.9, with a mean of 67.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 6, 4, 4, 4, and 5, with a mean of 4.6. Middle latitude A index was 5, 7, 7, 4, 3, 6, and 7, with a mean of 5.6.

     

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/0bs3cHgBrVw
    [2] https://phys.org/news/2020-06-motions-sun-reveal-sunspot.html
    [3] https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/forth/aa37739-20.pdf
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Field-Day/2020/1_61-2020%20Rules.pdf
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 3 17:13:16 2020
    07/03/2020

    No sunspots this week. The pattern persists, and this surprises me. But Spaceweather.com reported a couple of weak, barely emerging spots, never numbered, and by their magnetic polarity were from new Cycle 25.

    We rely on NOAA for official sunspot numbers, and the most recent one reported was 11 on June 15. See ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt[1].

    Average daily solar flux over the recent reporting week (June 25 to July 1) averaged 68.6 up from 67.7 over the previous seven days. Average daily planetary A index was 4.7, the same as the average middle latitude A index.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 68, every day July 3 to August 16, which is hardly a promising outlook. Even with no sunspots, it would be nice to see solar flux values north of 70.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 3-26, 8 on July 27-28, 5 on July 29 through August 1, 8 on August 2-3, and 5 on August 4-16.

     

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 3-29, 2020 from OK1HH.

    Geomagnetic field will be

    quiet on: July 3, 9-11, 14, 18-22

    quiet to unsettled on: July 4, 8, 12-13, (15, 17,) 25-28

    quiet to active on: (July 5-7, 16, 23-24, 29)

    unsettled to active on: None!

    active to disturbed: None!

    Solar wind will intensify on: July (4,) 5-8, (9-10, 16-18, 21-22,) 23-25, (26-27)

    Remarks:

    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

    - The predictability of changes remains in the long run lower as there are very few indications.

     

    This video is quite dramatic and remarkable. An entire decade of continuous solar rotation images compressed into an hour: https://youtu.be/l3QQQu7QLoM[2]. Background: https://go.nasa.gov/2CXkw1k[3]

     

    Mike, KA3JAW, reported from Easton, PA urging everyone to monitor 29.6 MHz FM. He heard nothing on 10-meter FM over Field Day weekend. I will start doing this myself now with a new radio that covers that band/mode.

     

    An interesting article about solar plasma flow: https://www.inverse.com/science/solar-cycle-plasma-flow[4]

     

    Thanks to AA2F for catching errors in the A index averages appearing in the ARRL Letter (my fault), so I could correct them in this bulletin.

     

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for June 25 through July 1, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.9, 67.8, 68.9, 69.2, 68.7, 68.1, and 68.9, with a mean of 68.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 6, 7, 4, 3, 4, and 6, with a mean of 4.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 6, 4, 4, 5, and 6, with a mean of 4.7.

     

     


    [1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
    [2] https://youtu.be/l3QQQu7QLoM
    [3] https://go.nasa.gov/2CXkw1k
    [4] https://www.inverse.com/science/solar-cycle-plasma-flow
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS