• Pacific-NW: Subj/signific

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Tue Sep 8 20:03:00 2020
    ABPW10 PGTW 080600
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
    /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 080600Z-090600ZSEP2020//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071351ZSEP2020//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
    (1) AT 07SEP20 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 11W (HAISHEN) WAS LOCATED
    NEAR 40.7N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 233 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF OSAN AB,
    SOUTH KOREA AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
    HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
    GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 071500) FOR THE FINAL
    WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
    (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
    17.0N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DISORGANIZED
    DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    (LLC). RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY (072224Z ASCAT-B AND 072109Z ASCAT-A)
    REVEALS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC LLC WITH 15-20KT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP
    IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 5-10KT WINDS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN
    SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
    MODERATE (20 KT) NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETTING
    GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL
    CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
    MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
    NNNN
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Sep 16 20:57:00 2020
    ABPW10 PGTW 160600
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
    /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZSEP2020//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151ZSEP2020//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
    (1) AT 16SEP20 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WAS LOCATED
    NEAR 13.1N 117.6E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA,
    PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
    AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 160300) FOR
    FURTHER DETAILS.
    (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
    NNNN
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Sep 20 13:07:00 2020
    ABPW10 PGTW 200600
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
    /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZSEP2020//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 21.5N 135.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 134.0E, APPROXIMATELY
    367 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200353Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
    A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) INDICATED BY LOW LEVEL BANDING
    OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. UPPER-
    LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
    OUTFLOW IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
    ADDITIONALLY, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
    CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
    THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME SUB-TROPICAL WITHIN 24-48 HOURS AS IT
    BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF HONSHU. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
    SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
    FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
    NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
    NNNN
    --- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)
  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Sep 20 22:21:00 2020
    ABPW10 PGTW 201530
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
    /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201530Z-210600ZSEP2020//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZSEP2020//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
    (1) AT 20SEP20 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WAS
    LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 366NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
    KADENA AB, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
    PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
    KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 201500) FOR
    FURTHER DETAILS.
    (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 14W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 21.5N 135.3E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
    SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA .1.B.(1) TO
    WARNING STATUS//
    NNNN
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Sep 21 19:30:00 2020
    ABPW10 PGTW 210600
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
    /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZSEP2020//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZSEP2020//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
    (1) AT 21SEP20 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WAS
    LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 134.6E, APPROXIMATELY 365NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
    KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
    AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 210300) FOR
    FURTHER DETAILS.
    (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
    NNNN
    --- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Oct 4 14:05:00 2020
    ABPW10 PGTW 040930
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
    /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/040930Z-050600ZOCT2020//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040851ZOCT2020//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 21.8N 139.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY
    201 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
    IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING, DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS CONTINUED TO
    CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
    DESPITE THE CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION, THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
    DISORGANIZED AS EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 040404Z
    AMSR2 36GHZ AND 040646Z SSMIS 37GHZ RETRIEVALS. FURTHERMORE, DATA
    FROM A 032352Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS.
    THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA FURTHER DEPICTS 10-15 KT WINDS ALONG THE
    PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGER, 20-30 KTS WINDS
    DISPLACED > 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. INVEST 90W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
    DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30
    CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
    ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT OVER THE
    OVERALL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
    DIVERGENCE IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS PREDICT
    A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE ECMWF AND UKMET CALCULATE
    WESTWARD SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
    BIFURCATE, SUGGESTING BOTH MODELS CONSIDER THE DISPARATE
    DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THIS DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL
    SOLUTIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
    OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE
    FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
    AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
    NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE
    REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 040900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B(1) TO HIGH.
    NNNN
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