• Pacific-NW: TS Noul R14

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Sep 18 19:54:00 2020
    WTPQ30 RJTD 181200
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TS NOUL IS LOCATED AT 16.2N, 103.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
    IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
    OF DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
    LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
    DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
    GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
    SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
    PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
    CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
    INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
    OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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