From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Sep 18 19:54:00 2020
WTPQ30 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOUL IS LOCATED AT 16.2N, 103.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)
Who's Online
Who's Online (Presence)
Recent Visitors
Fandarel
Mon Mar 25 14:15:29 2024
from
Pittsburgh, PA
via
Telnet
Fandarel
Tue Mar 26 18:41:32 2024
from
Pittsburgh, PA
via
Telnet
Fandarel
Wed Mar 27 13:47:51 2024
from
Pittsburgh, PA
via
Telnet
Fandarel
Thu Mar 28 14:51:55 2024
from
Pittsburgh, PA
via
Telnet