• Indian-N: Dems-rsmc Tropi

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Sep 29 20:57:00 2020
    WTIN20 DEMS 290600
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 29.09.2020

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
    BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT
    1000 UTC OF 29.09.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 29.09.2020.

    BAY OF BENGAL:
    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
    INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER BAY OF BENGAL & NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.
    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
    INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA.

    PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:

    24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

    NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL



    ARABIAN SEA:



    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
    INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED
    LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE
    CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.

    PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS :

    24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

    NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL=
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Oct 7 18:07:00 2020
    WTIN20 DEMS 070700
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 07.10.2020
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
    AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC
    OF 07.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 07.10.2020 .

    BAY OF BENGAL:
    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
    INTENSE CONVECTION OVER WESTCENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
    OFF ORISSA COAST AND ALSO OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA ADJOINING
    SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
    EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
    BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.
    A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTH ANDAMAN
    SEA AND ADJOINING EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AROUND 9TH OCTOBER. IT
    IS
    VERY LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL BAY OF
    BENGAL DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
    WESTNORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND SOUTH
    ODISHA COAST AS A DEPRESSION AROUND 11TH OCTOBER AFTERNOON/EVENING.
    PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
    HRS:

    24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
    NIL NIL NIL LOW MODERATE

    ARABIAN SEA:
    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
    CONVECTION OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND
    MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION
    OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
    PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT
    120 HRS :

    24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
    NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL

    PAGE 2
    PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%,
    LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
    THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
    COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
    SPECIFIC BULLETINS
    REMARKS:
    MOST OF THE MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, GEFS, ECMWF AND NEPS
    ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH
    ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EAST-CENTRAL BOB AROUND 9TH OCTOBER WITH WESTNORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND
    NORTH ODISHA COAST AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION INTO A DEPRESSION
    DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. THE GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER INDEX IS
    ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL ZONE FOR CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTH ANDAMAN
    SEA AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BOB DURING 9TH \U2013 10TH OCTOBER.
    NO CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTH INDIAN OCEAN DURING NEXT 24 HOURS

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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Oct 23 20:30:00 2020
    WTIN20 DEMS 230740
    SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 23.10.2020
    SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
    (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS
    ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 23.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 23.10.2020.
    BAY OF BENGAL:
    THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF ODISHA COAST
    MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 24 KMPH DURING PAST 6
    HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300UTC OF TODAY, THE 23
    RD
    OCTOBER, 2020 NEAR
    LATITUDE 21.3ON AND LONGITUDE 88.4OE OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF
    WEST BENGAL \U2013 BANGLADESH COASTS, ABOUT 50 KM SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR
    ISLANDS (42903) ) AND 200 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984).
    IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS WEST
    BENGAL & ADJOINING BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN SAGAR ISLANDS
    BETWEEN SAGAR ISLANDS (42903) & KHEPUPARA (41984) OVER SUNDARBANS,
    BETWEEN 0600-0900UTC OF 23
    RD
    OCTOBER.
    FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
    DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY OF
    CYCLONIC
    (UTC) (LAT.ON/ LONG.OE) WIND SPEED (KMPH) DISTURBANCE

    23.10.20/0300 21.3/88.4 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 DEPRESSION
    23.10.20/1200 22.3/89.1 35-45 GUSTING TO 55 DEPRESSION
    24.10.20/0000 23.5/89.8 25-35 GUSTING TO 45 WELL MARKED LOW

    THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.
    AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 23RD OCTOBER, THE
    SYSTEM HAS INTENSITY T 1.5 AND SHOWS SHEAR PATTERN. CONVECTIVE
    CLOUDS ARE SHEARED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER
    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
    INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTHWEST BOB, COASTAL WEST BENGAL
    AND BANGLADESH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
    TEMPERATURE IS -93OC.
    REMARKS
    THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 5
    WITH
    AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR NEXT FOUR
    TO
    FIVE DAYS WITH GRADUAL REDUCTION IN AMPLITUDE. THUS MJO WILL SUPPORT
    CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) FOR NEXT 4-5
    DAYS.
    CONSIDERING THE SEA CONDITIONS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND
    30-31OC AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER AND ALSO OVER ENTIRE NORTH BOB AND
    FURTHER INCREASEING TO 31-32C TOWARDS NORTHEAST BOB. TROPICAL
    CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 90-110 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTH BOB, EXCEPT
    SOME PARTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA OFF ANDHRA -ODISHA COASTS
    HAVING 80-100 KJ/C.
    CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE VORTICITY IS AROUND 150-100X10-6SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION
    UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL AND AROUND 40-70 10-6 SEC-1 . LOWER LEVEL
    CONVERGENCE
    IS ABOUT 20-30X10-5 SEC-1 LIES OVER NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
    THE
    UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS 30-40X10-5 SEC-1 ALSO LIES OVER NORTHEAST
    OF
    THE SYSTEM CENTRE. LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-
    20 KTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER WHICH INCREASES TO MODERATE TO
    HIGH OF 20-30 KTS ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
    RIDGE LIES NEAR 20ON OVER NORTHEAST BOB AND THE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY
    UNDER IMAPCT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS
    CUASING THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS.

    MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER
    NORTHWEST BOB WOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS WEST
    BENGAL & ADJOINING BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN 0600-0900UTC OF
    23RD OCTOBER.
    ARABIAN SEA:
    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
    INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST ARABAIN SEA.
    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
    CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. PROBABILITY OF
    CYCLOGENESIS
    PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
    HRS :
    24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
    NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL --------------------------------------------------------------=
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Oct 29 18:59:00 2020
    WTIN20 DEMS 290621
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 29.10.2020
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
    AND ARABIAN
    SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 29.10.2020 BASED
    ON 0300 UTC OF
    29.10.2020 .
    BAY OF BENGAL:
    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
    INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTHEAST BAY OF
    BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
    EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF
    BAY OF BENGAL.
    PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
    HRS:
    24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 72-96 HOURS
    96-120 HOURS
    48-72 HOURS

    NIL
    NIL NIL NIL NIL
    ARABIAN SEA:
    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
    INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE
    TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA.
    PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
    HRS :
    24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS
    96-120 HOURS
    NIL NIL NIL NIL
    NIL
    REMARKS: NIL=
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Oct 31 15:54:00 2020
    WTIN20 DEMS 310730
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 31.10.2020
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
    AND ARABIAN
    SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 31.10.2020 BASED
    ON 0300 UTC OF
    31.10.2020 .
    BAY OF BENGAL:
    UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF YESTERDAY\U2019S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
    EASTCENTRAL
    BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS
    FORMED OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL OFF MYANMAR COAST TODAY MORNING
    (0300 UTC). IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS BANGLADESH COAST DURING
    SUBSEQUENT
    48 HOURS.
    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH EAST & CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ALSO OVER
    GULF
    OF MARTABAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ABOVE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
    SCATTERED LOW
    AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY
    OVER
    EXTREME SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL.
    PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
    HRS:

    24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
    NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL

    ARABIAN SEA:
    SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO
    INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF ARABIAN SEA AND
    ADJOINING
    SOUTH ARABIAN SEA.
    PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
    HRS :

    24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
    NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL

    REMARKS: NIL

    NO CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTH INDIAN
    OCEAN DURING NEXT 24 HOURS LOW PRESSURE AREA=
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