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Indian-N: Dems-rsmc Tropi
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Sep 29 20:57:00 2020
WTIN20 DEMS 290600
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 29.09.2020
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT
1000 UTC OF 29.09.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 29.09.2020.
BAY OF BENGAL:
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER BAY OF BENGAL & NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL
ARABIAN SEA:
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED
LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS :
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL=
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Oct 7 18:07:00 2020
WTIN20 DEMS 070700
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 07.10.2020
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC
OF 07.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 07.10.2020 .
BAY OF BENGAL:
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION OVER WESTCENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
OFF ORISSA COAST AND ALSO OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.
A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTH ANDAMAN
SEA AND ADJOINING EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AROUND 9TH OCTOBER. IT
IS
VERY LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WESTNORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND SOUTH
ODISHA COAST AS A DEPRESSION AROUND 11TH OCTOBER AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS:
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL NIL LOW MODERATE
ARABIAN SEA:
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND
MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT
120 HRS :
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL
PAGE 2
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%,
LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS
REMARKS:
MOST OF THE MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, GEFS, ECMWF AND NEPS
ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH
ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EAST-CENTRAL BOB AROUND 9TH OCTOBER WITH WESTNORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND
NORTH ODISHA COAST AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION INTO A DEPRESSION
DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. THE GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER INDEX IS
ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL ZONE FOR CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTH ANDAMAN
SEA AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BOB DURING 9TH \U2013 10TH OCTOBER.
NO CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTH INDIAN OCEAN DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
-----------=
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Oct 23 20:30:00 2020
WTIN20 DEMS 230740
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 23.10.2020
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS
ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 23.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 23.10.2020.
BAY OF BENGAL:
THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF ODISHA COAST
MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 24 KMPH DURING PAST 6
HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300UTC OF TODAY, THE 23
RD
OCTOBER, 2020 NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3ON AND LONGITUDE 88.4OE OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF
WEST BENGAL \U2013 BANGLADESH COASTS, ABOUT 50 KM SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR
ISLANDS (42903) ) AND 200 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS WEST
BENGAL & ADJOINING BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN SAGAR ISLANDS
BETWEEN SAGAR ISLANDS (42903) & KHEPUPARA (41984) OVER SUNDARBANS,
BETWEEN 0600-0900UTC OF 23
RD
OCTOBER.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY OF
CYCLONIC
(UTC) (LAT.ON/ LONG.OE) WIND SPEED (KMPH) DISTURBANCE
23.10.20/0300 21.3/88.4 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 DEPRESSION
23.10.20/1200 22.3/89.1 35-45 GUSTING TO 55 DEPRESSION
24.10.20/0000 23.5/89.8 25-35 GUSTING TO 45 WELL MARKED LOW
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.
AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 23RD OCTOBER, THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSITY T 1.5 AND SHOWS SHEAR PATTERN. CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS ARE SHEARED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTHWEST BOB, COASTAL WEST BENGAL
AND BANGLADESH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE IS -93OC.
REMARKS
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 5
WITH
AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR NEXT FOUR
TO
FIVE DAYS WITH GRADUAL REDUCTION IN AMPLITUDE. THUS MJO WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) FOR NEXT 4-5
DAYS.
CONSIDERING THE SEA CONDITIONS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND
30-31OC AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER AND ALSO OVER ENTIRE NORTH BOB AND
FURTHER INCREASEING TO 31-32C TOWARDS NORTHEAST BOB. TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 90-110 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTH BOB, EXCEPT
SOME PARTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA OFF ANDHRA -ODISHA COASTS
HAVING 80-100 KJ/C.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE VORTICITY IS AROUND 150-100X10-6SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION
UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL AND AROUND 40-70 10-6 SEC-1 . LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE
IS ABOUT 20-30X10-5 SEC-1 LIES OVER NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS 30-40X10-5 SEC-1 ALSO LIES OVER NORTHEAST
OF
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-
20 KTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER WHICH INCREASES TO MODERATE TO
HIGH OF 20-30 KTS ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE LIES NEAR 20ON OVER NORTHEAST BOB AND THE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY
UNDER IMAPCT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS
CUASING THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS.
MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER
NORTHWEST BOB WOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS WEST
BENGAL & ADJOINING BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN 0600-0900UTC OF
23RD OCTOBER.
ARABIAN SEA:
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST ARABAIN SEA.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. PROBABILITY OF
CYCLOGENESIS
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS :
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL --------------------------------------------------------------=
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Oct 29 18:59:00 2020
WTIN20 DEMS 290621
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 29.10.2020
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 29.10.2020 BASED
ON 0300 UTC OF
29.10.2020 .
BAY OF BENGAL:
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF
BAY OF BENGAL.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS:
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 72-96 HOURS
96-120 HOURS
48-72 HOURS
NIL
NIL NIL NIL NIL
ARABIAN SEA:
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE
TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS :
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS
96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL NIL NIL
NIL
REMARKS: NIL=
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Oct 31 15:54:00 2020
WTIN20 DEMS 310730
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 31.10.2020
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 31.10.2020 BASED
ON 0300 UTC OF
31.10.2020 .
BAY OF BENGAL:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF YESTERDAY\U2019S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
EASTCENTRAL
BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS
FORMED OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL OFF MYANMAR COAST TODAY MORNING
(0300 UTC). IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS BANGLADESH COAST DURING
SUBSEQUENT
48 HOURS.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH EAST & CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ALSO OVER
GULF
OF MARTABAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ABOVE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
SCATTERED LOW
AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY
OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS:
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL
ARABIAN SEA:
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF ARABIAN SEA AND
ADJOINING
SOUTH ARABIAN SEA.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS :
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL
REMARKS: NIL
NO CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTH INDIAN
OCEAN DURING NEXT 24 HOURS LOW PRESSURE AREA=
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