Pacific-NW: TS Kujira 13A
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Sep 30 17:50:00 2020
WTPN31 PGTW 292100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 013A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 013A
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 38.0N 158.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.0N 158.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 40.5N 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 41.7N 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 159.4E.
29SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802
NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AND
ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
APPARENT IN THE EIR LOOP THAT ARE FEEDING INTO A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
PLACE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE WEAKENING
TREND IN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/3.5
(PGTW) AND T3.5/4.0 (RJTD). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO HIGH (40+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
COLD (<25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HAS ENTERED INTO
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 23 FEET.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED DISCUSSION OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND STORM STATUS TO REMARKS.//
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