• Pacific-NW: TS Kujira 13A

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Sep 30 17:50:00 2020
    WTPN31 PGTW 292100 COR
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 013A CORRECTED//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 013A
    DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    291800Z --- NEAR 38.0N 158.2E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 38.0N 158.2E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    300600Z --- 40.5N 162.9E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    EXTRATROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    301800Z --- 41.7N 169.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    EXTRATROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
    REMARKS:
    292100Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 159.4E.
    29SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802
    NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
    IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AND
    ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
    APPARENT IN THE EIR LOOP THAT ARE FEEDING INTO A PARTIALLY
    OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
    PLACE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE WEAKENING
    TREND IN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/3.5
    (PGTW) AND T3.5/4.0 (RJTD). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
    THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO HIGH (40+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    COLD (<25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HAS ENTERED INTO
    THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL
    TRANSITION (ETT) AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL
    MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
    REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH OVERALL
    CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
    ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
    SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 23 FEET.
    2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED DISCUSSION OF
    EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND STORM STATUS TO REMARKS.//
    NNNN
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