• Pacific-NW: TD22W R5

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Oct 28 20:18:00 2020
    WTPQ30 RJTD 281200
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO. 5 FOR TD LOCATED AT 16.6N 138.5E
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    A TD IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 138.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008HPA AND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
    IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
    SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
    INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
    ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
    GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
    CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
    DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
    SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
    CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
    SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
    PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
    CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
    SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
    WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
    OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE
    SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
    UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
    ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    =
    --- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)