• Pacific-W: STS Atsani R32

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Nov 5 22:02:00 2020
    WTPQ32 RJTD 051800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.32 FOR STS 2020 ATSANI (2020)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    STS ATSANI IS LOCATED AT 20.6N, 123.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
    CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
    CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
    DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY
    AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
    LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
    DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
    SEA SURFACE AMVS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
    BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
    SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM
    WILL THEN TURN SHARPLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
    BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
    SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
    WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THE
    SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
    IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
    =
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