From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Nov 5 22:02:00 2020
WTPQ32 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR STS 2020 ATSANI (2020)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS ATSANI IS LOCATED AT 20.6N, 123.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN TURN SHARPLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
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