From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Nov 12 19:39:00 2020
WTPQ31 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 15.1N, 116.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)