• Pacific-W: STS Vamco R18

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Nov 12 19:39:00 2020
    WTPQ31 RJTD 121800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.18 FOR STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    STS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 15.1N, 116.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
    IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS
    CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
    HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
    INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
    SCATTEROMETERS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
    BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
    CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
    MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
    INDICATING THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
    SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
    FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
    REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
    BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
    INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
    SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
    WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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