Indian-S: STS Alicia 13
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Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Nov 15 16:52:00 2020
WTIO30 FMEE 151211
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)
2.A POSITION 2020/11/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 73.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/16 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/11/16 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/17 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/11/17 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/11/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/11/18 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0
FOR ALMOST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALICIA IS A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) PATTERN SHOWING A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA, THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS NOT OBVIOUS AND BY FOLLOWING THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS OF THE CLOUD PATTERN, WE CAN ESTIMATE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF
55KT.
THE TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT EVOLVE MUCH: ALICIA MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTH WITH THE EASTWARD WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL TRACK
DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED OF DISPLACEMENT. FROM TUESDAY
ON, THE MODELS AGREE A LITTLE MORE ON THE OPTION OF THE CAPTURE OF
THE REMNANT LOW BY THE TRADE WINDS, LEAVING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY
WEDNESDAY.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO BE A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE BUT ALICIA IS STILL BENEFITING FOR 12 HOURS FROM A RANGE OF INTENSIFICATION THAT SHOULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, ALICIA GENERATES A VERY MARKED HIGH
ALTITUDE FLOW WHICH INDUCES A STRONG NEFAST WIND SHEAR TO THE
CYCLOGENESIS OF A SECOND SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH-WEST OF ALICIA. FROM
MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE WITH
INSUFFICIENT SEA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF 17S, A STRENGTHENING SHEAR
CONSTRAINT, GRADUALLY ASSOCIATED TO MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS ANNOUNCE A CLEAR WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY OF ALICIA,
WHICH AT THE 78-HOUR PERIOD WILL ONLY HAVE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION.=
#
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