Indian-S: STS Alicia 18
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Nov 16 22:08:00 2020
WTIO30 FMEE 161746
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)
2.A POSITION 2020/11/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 71.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/17 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/18 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/11/18 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/11/19 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=4.0-
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS,THE SHEAR PATTERN OF THE LOW IS ALLSO
CONFIRMED BY LATEST SATELITE IMAGERY. IN AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS (SATCON/ADT), INTENSITY WAS THUS DOWNGRADED TO 55
KT. MINIMAL ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ADJUSTED THANKS TO THE
BUOY 5601578 CURRENTLY MEASURING ITS MINIMUM OF PRESSURE AROUND
987HPA AT NEARLY 20NM FROM THE CENTER CLOSE AT 13UTC.
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH INDUCES A POLEWARDS TRACK. IT THEN BECOME
MORE ZONAL THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE, WHEN
THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAK. THE PROBABILITY OF A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02 SEEMS RATHER LOW DUE TO THE SHORT SIZE OF 02. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER STRONG NEVERTHELESS WITH MANY EPS MEMBERS OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING YET A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
ALICIA HAS STARTED ITS RAPID WEAKENING PHASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF
DRY AIR ABOVE THE INNER CORE IN RELATION WITH SHEAR. THE DISAPPEARING
OF THE SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD END ANY POSSIBILITY FOR
RENEWED TROPICAL DEEPENING AND FILL UP THE SYSTEM.
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