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Indian-S: I95S Formation
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Dec 4 20:25:00 2020
WTXS21 PGTW 040330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.7S 85.6E TO 11.1S 86.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.9S 85.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.5S 84.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 85.7E, APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 040007Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DISORGANIZED, BUT
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. INVEST 95S IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050330Z.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Dec 5 13:54:00 2020
WTXS21 PGTW 050330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUE (INVEST 95S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040321ZDEC20//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2S 84.9E TO 11.7S 82.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.6S 84.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.9S 85.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 041610Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH SOME WEAK FRAGMENTED CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 1611Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
REVEALS A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 15 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE. INVEST 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28
TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
95S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 040330).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060330Z.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Tue Apr 20 16:39:00 2021
WTXS21 PGTW 200830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 52.8E TO 9.6S 47.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 52.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S 53.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 52.4E, APPROXIMATELY 634
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 200256Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE
BANDING WITH CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200623Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH 25-30KT
WINDS AND A RELATIVELY SMALLER AREA OF 30-35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
ANALYSIS POSITION. INVEST 95S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES AND
PASSES NORTH OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210830Z.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)