• Indian-S: I95S Formation

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Dec 4 20:25:00 2020
    WTXS21 PGTW 040330
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.7S 85.6E TO 11.1S 86.7E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 6.9S 85.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 6.5S 84.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 85.7E, APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
    EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
    IMAGERY AND A 040007Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DISORGANIZED, BUT
    CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
    BUILDING ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. INVEST 95S IS
    CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
    EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL
    MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
    KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
    THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    050330Z.//
    NNNN
    --- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)
  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Dec 5 13:54:00 2020
    WTXS21 PGTW 050330
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUE (INVEST 95S)//
    REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040321ZDEC20//
    AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2S 84.9E TO 11.7S 82.9E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 7.6S 84.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 6.9S 85.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
    EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
    IMAGERY AND A 041610Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    WITH SOME WEAK FRAGMENTED CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 1611Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
    REVEALS A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 15 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN ON THE
    NORTHERN SIDE. INVEST 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28
    TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
    95S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
    WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
    ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
    SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 040330).
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    060330Z.//
    NNNN
    --- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)
  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Apr 20 16:39:00 2021
    WTXS21 PGTW 200830
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    105NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 52.8E TO 9.6S 47.0E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 10.8S 52.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 11.1S 53.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 52.4E, APPROXIMATELY 634
    NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY AND A 200256Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE
    BANDING WITH CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE
    LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200623Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS
    SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH 25-30KT
    WINDS AND A RELATIVELY SMALLER AREA OF 30-35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
    ANALYSIS POSITION. INVEST 95S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW
    ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
    30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
    AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES AND
    PASSES NORTH OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
    PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    210830Z.//
    NNNN
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)