Indian-S: TC 03S W4
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Dec 9 20:29:00 2020
WTXS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 110.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 110.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.9S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.7S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.2S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.6S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.0S 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 111.0E.
09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
627 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). TC 03S IS
TRACKING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
THAT IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
MARGINAL THROUGH TAU 12 WITH FAVORABLE SST OFFSET BY CONTINUED
MODERATE VWS. THEREAFTER, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS ALONG WITH CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WARM SST WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY TO 40 KTS BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA THEREAFTER. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. UPON MAKING LANDFALL, TC 03S WILL
BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING
TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
AND FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
MAXIMUM 140 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THIS
GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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