• Indian-S: TC 03S W4

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Dec 9 20:29:00 2020
    WTXS32 PGTW 091500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004
    02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    091200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 110.6E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 110.6E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    100000Z --- 13.9S 112.0E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    101200Z --- 15.7S 114.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    110000Z --- 18.2S 117.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    111200Z --- 20.6S 120.0E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
    72 HRS, VALID AT:
    121200Z --- 26.0S 125.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    091500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 111.0E.
    09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    627 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
    SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
    ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION
    SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW
    DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). TC 03S IS
    TRACKING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO
    THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
    CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
    THAT IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM
    (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM WILL
    CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
    OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
    MARGINAL THROUGH TAU 12 WITH FAVORABLE SST OFFSET BY CONTINUED
    MODERATE VWS. THEREAFTER, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS ALONG WITH CONTINUED
    UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WARM SST WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
    INTENSIFY TO 40 KTS BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
    THE COAST OF NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA THEREAFTER. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
    CONDITIONS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
    INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. UPON MAKING LANDFALL, TC 03S WILL
    BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING
    TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
    AND FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
    GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
    MAXIMUM 140 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THIS
    GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
    THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL
    CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 19 FEET.
    NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO
    TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
    UPDATES.//
    NNNN
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