• Indian-S: TC 03S W8

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Dec 10 19:12:00 2020
    WTXS32 PGTW 101500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 008//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 008
    02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    101200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 113.3E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 113.3E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    110000Z --- 18.3S 116.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    111200Z --- 21.0S 119.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    120000Z --- 23.7S 122.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 114.0E.
    10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399
    NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
    IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANDING DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN OBSCURED
    LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101104Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
    INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO
    A DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF
    LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
    IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
    GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TC 03S TO INTENSIFY TO 45
    KNOTS NEAR TAU 12. AFTER TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
    AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
    SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
    WEST AND A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL
    MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN 85NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
    AT TAU 24 LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
    AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
    02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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