Indian-S: TC 03S W8
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Thu Dec 10 19:12:00 2020
WTXS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 113.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 113.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.3S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.0S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.7S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 114.0E.
10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399
NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANDING DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN OBSCURED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101104Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO
A DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TC 03S TO INTENSIFY TO 45
KNOTS NEAR TAU 12. AFTER TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN 85NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 24 LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)