Pacific-SW: TC 04P W4
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Dec 11 22:10:00 2020
WTPS33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 177.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 177.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.2S 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.3S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.3S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.5S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.7S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 177.4E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230
NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST. AN 111837Z 91 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. BETWEEN THE EIR AND
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS, PGTW/KNES/NFFN) AND SUPPORTED BY
A 111320Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 40 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 40 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-35 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC 04P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVEST
91P) WHICH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 DAYS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 91P TO TC 04P, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) AND POSSIBLE
FUJIWHARA EFFECTS NEAR TAU 60. DUE TO THE COMPLEX SCENARIO, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. THE 11/12Z GFS RUN
INDICATES INVEST 91P WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM WITH TC 04P SKIRTING
WESTWARD TOWARDS VANUATU. CONVERSELY, NAVGEM DEPICTS TC 04P AS THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM AND TURNS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY POLEWARD BY TAU 36 THEN
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD PASSING TO THE WEST OF FIJI. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, INTENSITY, AND TRACK, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
SHOWS A SLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96. FOLLOWING
THIS, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE THE STR TO BUILD
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND THUS CAUSE TC 04P TO BEGIN TO TRANSIT
POLEWARD UNDER ITS STEERING INFLUENCE. THROUGH TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH VWS AND DCI. AFTERWARDS,
THE MERGED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80
KTS BY TAU 120 AS THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES. OF NOTE, THE
COMPLEXITY OF THIS SCENARIO ALSO PRESENTS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE
INVEST 91P BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND TC 04P DISSIPATES. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY AND POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//
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