• Pacific-SW: Yasa W30

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Dec 20 00:03:00 2020
    WTPS31 PGTW 192100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    191800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 178.0W
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 178.0W
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    200600Z --- 23.7S 178.6W
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    201800Z --- 24.5S 179.3W
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    SUBTROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
    REMARKS:
    192100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 178.2W.
    19DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE
    CENTER OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN 191800Z
    VISIBLE
    SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
    SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND
    KNES AND A 50 KNOT 191736Z CIMSS SATCON AUTOMATED INTENSITY
    ESTIMATE.
    TC 05P HAS TRACKED STEADILY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
    HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH
    AND EAST. STRONG, AND INCREASING, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
    DISPLACED LIMITED REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
    CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE AND CORE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE OF
    TC 05P ARE STEADILY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL. TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO
    MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
    RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL
    TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION
    WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ENABLE THE
    SYSTEM TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
    PERIOD, OFFSETTING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF SUSTAINED, STRONG
    VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
    VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NEAR-TERM TRACK. THE CURRENT TRACK
    FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET.
    NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
    NNNN
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