Pacific-SW: Yasa W30
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Dec 20 00:03:00 2020
WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 178.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 178.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.7S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 24.5S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 178.2W.
19DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE
CENTER OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN 191800Z
VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES AND A 50 KNOT 191736Z CIMSS SATCON AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.
TC 05P HAS TRACKED STEADILY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. STRONG, AND INCREASING, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
DISPLACED LIMITED REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE AND CORE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE OF
TC 05P ARE STEADILY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL. TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ENABLE THE
SYSTEM TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD, OFFSETTING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF SUSTAINED, STRONG
VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NEAR-TERM TRACK. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
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