• Indian-S: TD6 W2

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Dec 31 15:56:00 2020
    WTIO30 FMEE 311245
    RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

    0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/6/20202021
    1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6

    2.A POSITION 2020/12/31 AT 1200 UTC:
    WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0 S / 72.7 E
    (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
    SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
    MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

    3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/12 H

    4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
    5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
    RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 148 KM

    6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

    7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
    8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

    1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
    12H: 2021/01/01 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
    DISTURBANCE

    24H: 2021/01/01 12 UTC: 11.5 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 10 SE: 10 SW: 45 NW: 75

    36H: 2021/01/02 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 55

    48H: 2021/01/02 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 35 SE: 10 SW: 45 NW: 140

    60H: 2021/01/03 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 35

    72H: 2021/01/03 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
    LOW

    2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
    NIL


    2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

    DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED IN A NORTHERN SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH A LOT OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS IS
    LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06 AND
    SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
    NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST ASCENT DATA PLEADS FOR
    WINDS OF AROUND 25KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

    BEING IN THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05 BUT WITH A
    DIRECTIONAL FLOW COUNTERBALANCED BY THE CIRCULATION OF SYSTEM 05, THE
    TRACK OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06 TAKES A GLOBAL EASTERLY DIRECTION
    UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND SYSTEM AND THE WESTERLY FLOW
    PRESENT NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. BY SUNDAY, THE CIRCULATION
    SHOULD HAVE MIXED WITH SYSTEM 5.

    HELPED BY A WET SUPPLY ON THE EQUATOR SIDE WHICH IS REGAINING THE
    UPPER HAND, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06 SHOULD FIRST RESIST IN THE SHORT
    TERM TO THE SHEAR PRESENT AND THEN BE GENERATED BY THE UPPER AIR FLOW
    INDUCED BY SYSTEM 5. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, SYSTEM 6 SHOULD
    GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MIX WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM DUE ON SUNDAY.

    AS FOR THE FORECAST OF SYSTEM 05, THE CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND
    INTENSITY REMAINS LOW, AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER.

    THE CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
    ADVISORY.
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