Indian-S: TD5 W4
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All on Thu Dec 31 22:59:00 2020
WTIO30 FMEE 311837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/5/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
2.A POSITION 2020/12/31 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 83.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 111 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 220 NW: 220
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/01 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 55
24H: 2021/01/01 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 55
36H: 2021/01/02 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
48H: 2021/01/02 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 150 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 20 SW: 45 NW: 130
60H: 2021/01/03 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 140
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE SAT PRESENTATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
DID NOT EVOLVE MUCH : CONVECTION IS STILL REJECTED WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL SEEMS TO BE RATHER ELONGATED. THE 1530Z
ASCAT-A SWATH ONLY COVERS A PART OF THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BUT STILL
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY IN A GENERAL WESTERLY
DIRECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THIS WESTERLY TRAJECTORY UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH A TENDENCY TO ACCELERATE. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT
WITH THE SYSTEM 06 FURTHER WEST. IN THESE CONDITIONS, A FUJIWHARA
EFFECT SHOULD OCCUR LEAVING A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST
OF THE SYSTEM 05 FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A VERY FLUCTUATING TRACK IN
DIRECTION AND SPEED (LOOP OR REVERSAL). THE REMAINING SYSTEM BORN
FROM THE INTERACTION WITH SYSTEM 6 SHOULD THEN HEAD WESTWARD AGAIN ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A WIDE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDERMINED BY A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR UNTIL
TOMORROW NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY, THE UPPER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WITH EVEN AN INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, THE INTERACTION WITH SYSTEM 6 IN THE
NORTH-WEST SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO CHOOSE WHICH
CIRCULATION WILL ABSORB THE OTHER. THE AVAILABLE MODELS HAVE CHANGED
THEIR SCENARIO ON THE LAST TWO RUNS AND ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
PREVALENCE OF SYSTEM 6 OVER SYSTEM 5, AS THE LATTER UNDERCUTS THE
EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF ITS RIVAL. FROM THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, THE REMAINING SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT FROM RATHER CONDUCIVE
CONDITIONS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT EVEN IF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE
SOUTH COULD LIMIT THE PACE OF INTENSIFICATION.
SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST OF SYSTEM 06, THE CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY REMAINS LOW, AS THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER. ONE OF THE TWO SHOULD EVENTUALLY DOMINATE THE OTHER
BUT IS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT BOTH SYSTEM INCAPACITATE EACH OTHER.
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