• MESO: Heavy snow

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Jan 2 16:14:00 2021
    ACUS11 KWNS 021305
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021304
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-021700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0010
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0704 AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021

    Areas affected...northern VT and NH into portions of western and
    central ME

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 021304Z - 021700Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow will shift eastward from northern VT/NH into
    parts of western/central ME this morning. Snowfall rates around 1
    inch per hour are expected, with some areas briefly seeing rates as
    high as 2 inches per hour.

    DISCUSSION...Areas of heavy snow are ongoing across parts of
    northern VT and NH as a band of 700 mb frontogenesis strengthens
    ahead of the midlevel trough/low. Strong forcing and a warm/moist
    advection around 850-700 mb is aiding in a deep, saturated layer
    extending vertically through the dendritic growth zone, enhancing
    snowfall rates. As the midlevel trough develops eastward, heavy
    snow, with rates around 1 to 2 inches per hour, will spread eastward
    into parts of western and central ME through the morning hours.

    ..Leitman.. 01/02/2021

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

    LAT...LON 45816757 45296782 44506976 44087079 44577340 44917345
    45167312 45357205 45657117 46237025 46576854 46316796
    45816757
    #
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Feb 15 01:34:00 2021
    ACUS11 KWNS 150104
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150104
    TXZ000-150700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0082
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0704 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of Texas Hill Country into Southeast Texas

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 150104Z - 150700Z

    SUMMARY...Pockets of moderate to heavy snow are possible in parts of
    the DFW metro and eastward in the short term. The next area of heavy
    snow to develop will likely be within the Edwards Plateau perhaps by
    8-10 PM CST. This heavy snow will develop eastward into Southeast
    Texas through the evening and overnight.

    DISCUSSION...Current water vapor imagery shows another area of
    mid-level ascent moving through the Big Bend region. This ascent is
    forecast to pivot through the base of the broad upper-level trough
    as it moves east. MRMS radar imagery shows heavier bands of
    precipitation developing in Mexico that should begin to move into
    the Edwards Plateau within the next 1-3 hours. 1 inch per hour
    snowfall rates are possible as the favorable lift within the
    dendritic growth layer moves through the region.

    A band of moderate to heavy snow now moving east through the DFW
    metro area will continue to bring around 1 inch per hour rates.
    However, this is expected to decrease with time as the more
    favorable synoptic ascent shifts to the south.

    ..Wendt.. 02/15/2021

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29310099 29760093 30140079 30769962 31429820 31989708
    32019670 31799599 31089549 30539554 29999663 29099846
    28729991 28850060 29190093 29310099
    $$
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Feb 15 20:58:00 2021
    ACUS11 KWNS 151645
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151644
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-152245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0088
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1044 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

    Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...northern/western
    Kentucky...southern Illinois...much of Indiana...southwestern Ohio

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 151644Z - 152245Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow near the Mississippi River will spread
    northeastward across much of the discussion area over the next 3-6
    hours. Accumulations of 1-2 inches per hour are possible in heavier
    bands. A few areas of sleet may also mix in with the snow across
    Kentucky.

    DISCUSSION...Lift associated with an approaching mid-level wave over
    Oklahoma has resulted in a broad area of moderate to heavy
    precipitation from eastern Arkansas/western Tennessee southward to
    the central Gulf Coast. Much of the precipitation has fallen as
    heavy snow, though sleet has mixed in with the precipitation across
    western Tennessee at times. Additional bands of precipitation are
    developing in southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri currently,
    where recent METARs indicate heavy snow in Carbondale, IL; St.
    Louis, MO; and Poplar Bluff, MO. This snow has developed roughly
    1-2 hours faster than this morning's 12Z model guidance.

    With broad-scale lift approaching the discussion area, the
    expectation is that snowfall rates will continue to intensify as the
    expanding precipitation shield moves northeastward across the
    discussion area. Areas of 1-2 inch/hour snow rates are expected in
    heavier bands. Model forecast soundings across Kentucky indicate a
    warm layer between H7-85 that may allow for sleet to occasionally
    mix in with snow across Kentucky.

    ..Cook.. 02/15/2021

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 37989043 37429056 37019010 36888883 36788750 36878658
    37568584 38728419 39408335 40378329 40768462 40798682
    39278964 37989043
    $$
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Feb 17 21:05:00 2021
    ACUS11 KWNS 171900
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171900
    KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-172200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0110
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

    Areas affected...northern Mississippi through middle Tennessee and
    far southern Kentucky

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 171900Z - 172200Z

    SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snow continues to spread
    northeastward into the discussion area from the southwest. 1" per
    hour rates will gradually become increasingly likely over the course
    of the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Heavier reflectivities are beginning to appear in radar
    mosaic imagery from bear Oxford, MS to southwest of Nashville, TN
    over the past hour. The precipitation itself is likely tied to
    isentropic lift across upstream areas of Arkansas/Louisiana where
    50-60 kt low-level flow continues to impinge on a shallow
    sub-freezing airmass. The precipitation itself is outpacing most
    model guidance, and with low-level moistening occurring beneath the precipitation shield, areas of moderate to occasionally heavy snow
    should begin across the discussion area over the next 1-2 hours or
    so. Snow should be the be dominant precip type, though point
    forecast soundings indicate enough of a warm layer aloft to support
    occasional mixing with sleet at times.

    ..Cook.. 02/17/2021

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35728931 36328805 36698681 36998548 36878467 36028475
    35068578 34378752 34048888 34208979 34629011 35068978
    35728931
    $$
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  • From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Feb 18 20:40:00 2021
    ACUS11 KWNS 181851
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181851
    TXZ000-182145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0123
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1251 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

    Areas affected...southern Val Verde ...Kinney...and Uvalde counties
    in Texas

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 181851Z - 182145Z

    SUMMARY...A narrow band of heavy snow continues across southern Val
    Verde, Kinney, and Uvalde counties in Texas. This band will
    gradually weaken through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A band of heavy snow has become narrower, but heavy
    snowfall rates remain within this corridor from Del Rio, Texas
    eastward. Snowfall rates as high as 3 inches per hour have been
    reported in Del Rio this morning. Frontogenesis has started to
    weaken across the area, which is likely responsible for the
    narrowing corridor of the heaviest snow rates. As frontogenesis
    continues to weaken, snowfall rates will continue to lower, but 1+
    inch per hour snowfall rates could persist through mid to late
    afternoon beneath the heaviest portions of the band. The heaviest
    snowfall rates will likely remain near Del Rio where significant
    snowfall totals have already been reported.

    ..Bentley.. 02/18/2021

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29540126 29610096 29550029 29549999 29429976 29279974
    29149986 29080018 29100044 29200073 29220095 29260103
    29540126
    $$
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