Pacific-SW: Imogen W002 F
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 3 14:02:00 2021
WTPS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 140.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.8S 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.9S 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 141.3E.
03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283
NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR
DATA FROM ABOM INDICATES THAT TC 09P MADE LANDFALL NEAR KARUMBA,
AUSTRALIA AT 031200Z, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT OF THE LACK OF ANY SUBJECTIVE OR OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OVER LAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY INLAND WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING AND IS
EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CAPE YORK PENINSULA NO LATER THAN TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 14 FEET.//
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