• Pacific-SW: Imogen W002 F

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jan 3 14:02:00 2021
    WTPS31 PGTW 031500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN) WARNING NR 002//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN) WARNING NR 002
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    031200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 140.9E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
    SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 140.9E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    040000Z --- 17.8S 142.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    041200Z --- 17.9S 143.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    031500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 141.3E.
    03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283
    NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
    11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
    SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
    SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR
    DATA FROM ABOM INDICATES THAT TC 09P MADE LANDFALL NEAR KARUMBA,
    AUSTRALIA AT 031200Z, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW
    CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT OF THE LACK OF ANY SUBJECTIVE OR OBJECTIVE
    INTENSITY ESTIMATES OVER LAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL
    CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY INLAND WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING AND IS
    EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN
    CAPE YORK PENINSULA NO LATER THAN TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
    TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
    THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
    PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 14 FEET.//
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