Pacific-SW: TC Kimi W004
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sun Jan 17 21:21:00 2021
WTPS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 146.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 146.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.9S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.5S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.2S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.0S 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.5S 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.6S 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 146.6E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITS OVERALL AREAL
EXTENT BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. HOWEVER, ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE
CAIRNS RADAR SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WRAPPING INTO THE ELONGATED AND WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION BETWEEN ARLINGTON AND BOUGAINVILLE REEFS, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 55 KNOTS, HEDGED UPWARDS FROM THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 3.0, BASED ON A T3.6 CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE AND A 55KT SATCON
ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS BY JTWC INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK POINT SOURCE OVER OR NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
ADDITIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH.
COMBINED WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS, THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR-
TERM. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, ENSCONCED BETWEEN A STRONG STR TO THE EAST AND UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS
SHIFTING SIGNIFICANTLY EAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE MAJORITY OF
THE MEMBERS NOW CONCUR WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, THEN A
TURN EASTWARD, KEEPING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THOUGH TAU 120. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE SINGLE CONTRARIAN, WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE, TURNS THE
TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST
SHIFTS THE TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD AS THE SYTSEM TRACKS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR TO THE EAST, THEN TURNS WEST AFTER
TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND FLUIDITY IN
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 12 BUT
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND OUTFLOW DECREASES AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WITH RAPID WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATION EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND
182100Z.//
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