• Pacific-SW: TC Kimi W004

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jan 17 21:21:00 2021
    WTPS31 PGTW 172100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 004//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 004
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    171800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 146.6E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
    SATELLITE AND RADAR
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 146.6E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    180600Z --- 16.9S 146.7E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    181800Z --- 17.5S 146.7E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    190600Z --- 18.2S 146.7E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    191800Z --- 19.0S 146.5E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
    72 HRS, VALID AT:
    201800Z --- 19.5S 145.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
    96 HRS, VALID AT:
    211800Z --- 19.6S 143.5E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 146.6E.
    17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
    NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
    IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITS OVERALL AREAL
    EXTENT BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. HOWEVER, ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE
    CAIRNS RADAR SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE
    SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WRAPPING INTO THE ELONGATED AND WELL-DEFINED
    CIRCULATION BETWEEN ARLINGTON AND BOUGAINVILLE REEFS, LENDING HIGH
    CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
    TO 55 KNOTS, HEDGED UPWARDS FROM THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
    ESTIMATE OF 3.0, BASED ON A T3.6 CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE AND A 55KT SATCON
    ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS BY JTWC INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A
    WEAK POINT SOURCE OVER OR NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
    ADDITIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH.
    COMBINED WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS, THE
    ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR-
    TERM. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, ENSCONCED BETWEEN A STRONG STR TO THE EAST AND UPPER-
    LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL
    GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS
    SHIFTING SIGNIFICANTLY EAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE MAJORITY OF
    THE MEMBERS NOW CONCUR WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, THEN A
    TURN EASTWARD, KEEPING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THOUGH TAU 120. THE ECMWF
    REMAINS THE SINGLE CONTRARIAN, WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE, TURNS THE
    TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST
    SHIFTS THE TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD AS THE SYTSEM TRACKS ALONG
    THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR TO THE EAST, THEN TURNS WEST AFTER
    TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER
    LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND FLUIDITY IN
    THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
    TRACK. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 12 BUT
    THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND OUTFLOW DECREASES AS THE
    SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WITH RAPID WEAKENING
    AND DISSIPATION EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
    HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND
    182100Z.//
    NNNN
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