Indian-S: Eloise W20
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Wed Jan 20 22:08:00 2021
WTIO30 FMEE 201248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 46.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 35
24H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
36H: 2021/01/22 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 35
48H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 65
60H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SW: 215 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75
72H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 270 SW: 110 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 100 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 32.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 55
120H: 2021/01/25 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 30.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (METAR DE MAJUNGA) SHOW
THAT THE CENTER OF ELOISE IS IN IMMADIATE PROXIMITY TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. MOREOVER THE CURVATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS PRESENT OVERSEA HAS BEEN CLEARLY INCREASED
REFLECTING A PROBABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 35 KT WITH PROBABLE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK WHICH WILL MAKE IT
SKIRT THE MALAGASY COAST NEXT NIGHT AND THEN COME OUT MORE FULLY AT
SEA AT THE END OF THE NIGHT. THEN, ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST TRACK WHICH SHOULD BRING IT ON THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTS BY SATURDAY, WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RENEWS
ITSELF SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK PREDICTION
IS INCREASING WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GUIDANCE BEAM AROUND A CONSENSUS
THAT HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE LAST FEW RUNS.
ON THURSDAY, ONCE OUT TO SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FRANK AND POTENTIALLY RAPID REINTENSIFICATION (WARM WATERS, MOIST ENVIRONMENT, LITTLE SHEAR AND
GOOD EQUATORWARDS DIVERGENCE). IT IS ADVISABLE TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON
THE INTENSITY PREDICTION AFTER AN OVERLAND TRACK THAT COULD DELAY REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCES ARE GENERALLY VERY REACTIVE
AND SUGGEST THAT ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE
IS ALSO CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE THAT ELOISE SHOULD BECOME A LARGE
ENOUGH SYSTEM FOR THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
ELOISE IS CURRENTLY GENERATING HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS,
LOCALLY MORE, ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH-WESTERN REGIONS OF
MADAGASCAR. STRONG WINDS, REACHING NEAR GALE OR GALE FORCE WINDS
(30/35 KT) ARE SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THESE WINDS, ORIENTED FROM THE SEA TO THE LAND,
MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL COASTAL SUBMERSION. THE INHABITANTS OF THE AREAS
CONCERNED (NORTH-WEST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN NOSY-BE AND MAINTIRANO)
ARE INVITED TO KEEP THEMSELVES INFORMED OF THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
THROUGH THE INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE MALAGASY
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.
FOR MOZAMBIQUE, THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR
THE AREA BETWEEN BEIRA IN THE NORTH AND INHAMBANE IN THE SOUTH AND IT
IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL THE INHABITANTS OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ZONE
FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES. FROM FRIDAY, HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS WILL START TO IMPACT SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN PEBANE AND BEIRA. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
WITHIN THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ZONE AS SOON AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE
INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
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