• Indian-S: Eloise W20

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Jan 20 22:08:00 2021
    WTIO30 FMEE 201248
    RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

    0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/7/20202021
    1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

    2.A POSITION 2021/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
    WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 46.8 E
    (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
    FORTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
    MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

    3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
    4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
    5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
    RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

    6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 315
    34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

    7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
    8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

    1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
    12H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
    TROPICAL STORM
    28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 195
    34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 35

    24H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
    TROPICAL STORM
    28 KT NE: 280 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 195
    34 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75

    36H: 2021/01/22 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
    TROPICAL STORM
    28 KT NE: 325 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 195
    34 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
    48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 35

    48H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
    CYCLONE
    28 KT NE: 335 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 205
    34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 175
    48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
    64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 65

    60H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
    CYCLONE
    28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SW: 215 NW: 205
    34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 165
    48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100
    64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75

    72H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
    TROPICAL CYCLONE
    28 KT NE: 345 SE: 270 SW: 110 NW: 205
    34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 100 NW: 140
    48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 85
    64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 75

    2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
    96H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 32.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 230 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 55

    120H: 2021/01/25 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 30.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
    DEPRESSION

    2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (METAR DE MAJUNGA) SHOW
    THAT THE CENTER OF ELOISE IS IN IMMADIATE PROXIMITY TO THE
    NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. MOREOVER THE CURVATURE OF THE
    CONVECTIVE BANDS PRESENT OVERSEA HAS BEEN CLEARLY INCREASED
    REFLECTING A PROBABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY
    IS INCREASED TO 35 KT WITH PROBABLE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
    NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

    THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK WHICH WILL MAKE IT
    SKIRT THE MALAGASY COAST NEXT NIGHT AND THEN COME OUT MORE FULLY AT
    SEA AT THE END OF THE NIGHT. THEN, ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS A
    WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST TRACK WHICH SHOULD BRING IT ON THE
    MOZAMBICAN COASTS BY SATURDAY, WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RENEWS
    ITSELF SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK PREDICTION
    IS INCREASING WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GUIDANCE BEAM AROUND A CONSENSUS
    THAT HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE LAST FEW RUNS.

    ON THURSDAY, ONCE OUT TO SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FRANK AND POTENTIALLY RAPID REINTENSIFICATION (WARM WATERS, MOIST ENVIRONMENT, LITTLE SHEAR AND
    GOOD EQUATORWARDS DIVERGENCE). IT IS ADVISABLE TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON
    THE INTENSITY PREDICTION AFTER AN OVERLAND TRACK THAT COULD DELAY REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCES ARE GENERALLY VERY REACTIVE
    AND SUGGEST THAT ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL
    CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE
    IS ALSO CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE THAT ELOISE SHOULD BECOME A LARGE
    ENOUGH SYSTEM FOR THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A
    PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

    ELOISE IS CURRENTLY GENERATING HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
    NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS,
    LOCALLY MORE, ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH-WESTERN REGIONS OF
    MADAGASCAR. STRONG WINDS, REACHING NEAR GALE OR GALE FORCE WINDS
    (30/35 KT) ARE SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
    COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THESE WINDS, ORIENTED FROM THE SEA TO THE LAND,
    MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL COASTAL SUBMERSION. THE INHABITANTS OF THE AREAS
    CONCERNED (NORTH-WEST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN NOSY-BE AND MAINTIRANO)
    ARE INVITED TO KEEP THEMSELVES INFORMED OF THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
    THROUGH THE INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE MALAGASY
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.

    FOR MOZAMBIQUE, THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR
    THE AREA BETWEEN BEIRA IN THE NORTH AND INHAMBANE IN THE SOUTH AND IT
    IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL THE INHABITANTS OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ZONE
    FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES. FROM FRIDAY, HEAVY
    RAINS AND STRONG WINDS WILL START TO IMPACT SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY
    BETWEEN PEBANE AND BEIRA. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
    WITHIN THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ZONE AS SOON AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
    INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE
    INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
    =
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)