• Indian-S: TC 13S W15 Fina

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Jan 28 19:12:00 2021
    WTXS31 PGTW 280300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 015//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 015
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    280000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 87.4E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 87.4E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    281200Z --- 18.5S 83.7E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
    REMARKS:
    280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 86.5E.
    28JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    925 SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED
    LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK,
    FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED 130NM+ TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
    INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    LLC IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH THE WEAK BUT
    DISCERNIBLE LLC FEATURE IN THE 272212Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
    THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS BASED ON THE SATCON ADT
    ESTIMATE OF 25KTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DEGRADED EIR
    SATELLITE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
    THE CYCLONE IS UNDER 25KT+ OF RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS
    THE STORM MOTION HAS BECOME 90DEG OUT-OF-PHASE WITH THE UPPER
    LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY
    THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 13S HAS FALLEN TO
    BELOW THE JTWC WARNING INTENSITY CRITERIA OF 35KTS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER. THE REMNANTS WILL PROPAGATE WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, BY TAU
    72, AS IT DRIFTS INTO WARMER SST (28C), THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
    OF REGENERATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
    THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
    CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
    WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 10 FEET.//
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