• FIJI: TD A3 01281354

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thu Jan 28 19:15:00 2021
    WTPS11 NFFN 281200
    TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
    Jan 281354 UTC.

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 170.2E
    AT 281200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
    PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS.
    MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS IN THE
    SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARDS AND
    THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS.

    A MODERATE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
    DEPRESSION LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
    GOOD OUTFLOW AND UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. SST IS AROUND 30
    DEGREES CELSIUS.
    TD05F IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BEFORE SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUITORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
    THE SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP, IT WILL POSE AN
    IMMEDIATE THREAT TO FIJI.

    GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
    AN EASTWARDS TRACK BEFORE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWADS TRACK. THE POTENTIAL
    FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
    48 HOURS IS HIGH.



    FORECASTS :
    AT 12 HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC 16.0S 171.9E MOV E AT 08 KT WITH 30 KT
    CLOSE TO CENTRE
    AT 24 HRS VALID AT 291200 UTC 16.3S 173.8E MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT
    CLOSE TO CENTRE

    OUTLOOK :
    AT 36 HRS VALID AT 300000 UTC 16.9S 175.6E MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT
    CLOSE TO CENTRE
    AT 48 HRS VALID AT 301200 UTC 17.7S 177.1E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 40
    KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

    THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F
    WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 282000UTC.
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