• Pacific-SW: TC20P W002

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wed Feb 10 22:49:00 2021
    WTPS31 PGTW 100900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    100600Z --- NEAR 26.7S 177.4W
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 177.4W
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    101800Z --- 29.9S 176.4W
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    110600Z --- 33.1S 174.7W
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    111800Z --- 36.1S 172.3W
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
    REMARKS:
    100900Z POSITION NEAR 27.5S 177.1W.
    10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH MODERATE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
    SOUTHEAST. THE OVERALL DEPICTION IN THE MSI IS INCREASINGLY
    EXTRATROPICAL, WITH THE COMMA-SHAPED CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE NOW
    POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. A TIMELY 100600Z GMI 36GHZ
    MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION AND LOW
    LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
    INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS WITH
    FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
    ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45
    KTS), AS WELL AS AN EXTRAPOLATION OF 100116Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED
    ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWED 40-50KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST
    QUADRANT, WITH 35-40KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. TC 20P IS MOVING RAPIDLY
    SOUTHWARD ALONG TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
    SUPPORTIVE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, WITH COOL (24-26C) SSTS,
    VERY HIGH (>30KT) VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERMAL CROSS-
    SECTION AND THICKNESS ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS BOTH TROPICAL
    AND EXTRATROPICAL FEATURES AT WARNING TIME. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
    MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE UNDER THE
    UPPER-LEVEL JET, TRANSITIONING TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT OR
    BEFORE TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
    THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
    FORECAST TRACK, WHICH REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING,
    NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z
    AND 110900Z.//
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