• Indian-S: STS Faraji W30

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Fri Feb 12 15:20:00 2021
    WTIO30 FMEE 121245
    RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

    0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/10/20202021
    1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

    2.A POSITION 2021/02/12 AT 1200 UTC:
    WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 81.4 E
    (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
    EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
    MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

    3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

    4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
    5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
    RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

    6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 95
    34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 85
    48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65
    64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

    7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
    8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

    1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
    12H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
    TROPICAL STORM
    28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 75
    34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65
    48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

    24H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
    TROPICAL STORM
    28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 75
    34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65

    36H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
    TROPICAL STORM
    28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 75
    34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65

    48H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55

    60H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 30 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 55

    72H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 20 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 55

    2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
    96H: 2021/02/16 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
    LOW

    120H: 2021/02/17 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
    LOW

    2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    T=3.0+;CI=4.0

    FARAJI'S SHEAR PATTERN HAS BEEN CONFIRMED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE
    NORTHERLY UPPER WIND SHEAR BRINGS OUT THE LOW LAYER CIRCULATION
    CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THE 1056Z SSMIS
    IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS THIS CLEAR WEAKENING BY SHOWING A WEAK INNER
    STRUCTURE. IT ALLOWS TO LOCATE THE LLCC WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
    GIVEN THESE ANALYSIS AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND
    SUBJECTIVE DATA (SATCON, ADT, JTWC), FARAJI'S INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
    55 KT.

    WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW LOWERED INTO THE
    LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS CURRENTLY
    REGAINING CONTROL OF THE TRACK INDUCING A GENERAL WESTERLY
    ORIENTATION. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS
    EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
    CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN NUMERICAL
    MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION IS LOWER.

    FARAJI KEEPS UNDERGOING A DEEP NORTHWESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
    INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, WHICH IS WEAKENING ITS STRUCTURE. THE DRY AIR
    REMAINS WELL PRESENT OVER THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING A FORECAST OF STRONG WEAKENING. THE MAIN GUIDANCES GIVE LESS AND LESS CREDIT TO THE
    HYPOTHESIS OF A REINTENSIFICATION OF FARAJI.

    THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
    LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
    =
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)