Indian-S: STS Faraji W30
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Feb 12 15:20:00 2021
WTIO30 FMEE 121245
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/10/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 81.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35
24H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
36H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65
48H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
60H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 55
72H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/16 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
120H: 2021/02/17 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+;CI=4.0
FARAJI'S SHEAR PATTERN HAS BEEN CONFIRMED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE
NORTHERLY UPPER WIND SHEAR BRINGS OUT THE LOW LAYER CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THE 1056Z SSMIS
IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS THIS CLEAR WEAKENING BY SHOWING A WEAK INNER
STRUCTURE. IT ALLOWS TO LOCATE THE LLCC WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
GIVEN THESE ANALYSIS AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DATA (SATCON, ADT, JTWC), FARAJI'S INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
55 KT.
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW LOWERED INTO THE
LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS CURRENTLY
REGAINING CONTROL OF THE TRACK INDUCING A GENERAL WESTERLY
ORIENTATION. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN NUMERICAL
MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION IS LOWER.
FARAJI KEEPS UNDERGOING A DEEP NORTHWESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, WHICH IS WEAKENING ITS STRUCTURE. THE DRY AIR
REMAINS WELL PRESENT OVER THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING A FORECAST OF STRONG WEAKENING. THE MAIN GUIDANCES GIVE LESS AND LESS CREDIT TO THE
HYPOTHESIS OF A REINTENSIFICATION OF FARAJI.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
=
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)