• Indian-S: Faraji W34 Fina

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Feb 13 15:24:00 2021
    WTIO30 FMEE 131242
    RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

    0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/10/20202021
    1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

    2.A POSITION 2021/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
    WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 79.9 E
    (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
    SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
    MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

    3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

    4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
    5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
    RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

    6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 95
    34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
    48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
    64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

    7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
    8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

    1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
    12H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 55

    24H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55

    36H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

    48H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
    LOW

    60H: 2021/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
    LOW

    72H: 2021/02/16 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
    DISSIPATING

    2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
    NIL


    2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    T=CI=2.5+

    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, FARAJI'S SHEARED PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
    OBVIOUS, WITH THE MAXIMUM OF CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY
    DETACHED TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF A SURFACE CENTER WHICH IS MOVING
    AWAY FROM THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THIS TILT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
    AND THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CONVECTIVE CORE IS VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE MICROWAVE IMAGES AMSR2 OF
    0822Z AND SSM/I OF 1029Z. THE SATCON ANALYSIS IS ALSO WEAKER COMPARED
    TO THIS MORNING. WITH A DT DECREASING TO 2.5+, ALL THESE ELEMENTS
    CONFIRM AN INTENSITY REDUCED TO 35 KT AT 1200Z.

    WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW HAS MOVED DOWN TO
    THE LOW TROPOSPHERE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH INDUCES A
    WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

    EVEN IF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE, THE INTRUSION
    OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO WEAKEN
    FARAJI. ACCORDING TO MOST MODELS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
    REMAIN UNFAVORABLE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE,
    INSUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE), WHICH SHOULD LEAD FARAJI
    TO A VERY WEAK STATE BY NEXT TUESDAY.

    DUE TO ITS LOW INTENSITY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT A CYCLONIC
    RISK FOR THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER, AS ITS
    TRACK BRINGS IT CLOSER TO THE MASCARENES, A DEGRADATION OF WEATHER
    CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE.

    THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN ABOUT FARAJI.
    =
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