Indian-S: Faraji W34 Fina
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All on Sat Feb 13 15:24:00 2021
WTIO30 FMEE 131242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 79.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2021/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2021/02/16 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, FARAJI'S SHEARED PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
OBVIOUS, WITH THE MAXIMUM OF CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DETACHED TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF A SURFACE CENTER WHICH IS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THIS TILT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
AND THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CONVECTIVE CORE IS VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE MICROWAVE IMAGES AMSR2 OF
0822Z AND SSM/I OF 1029Z. THE SATCON ANALYSIS IS ALSO WEAKER COMPARED
TO THIS MORNING. WITH A DT DECREASING TO 2.5+, ALL THESE ELEMENTS
CONFIRM AN INTENSITY REDUCED TO 35 KT AT 1200Z.
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW HAS MOVED DOWN TO
THE LOW TROPOSPHERE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH INDUCES A
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EVEN IF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE, THE INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO WEAKEN
FARAJI. ACCORDING TO MOST MODELS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE,
INSUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE), WHICH SHOULD LEAD FARAJI
TO A VERY WEAK STATE BY NEXT TUESDAY.
DUE TO ITS LOW INTENSITY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT A CYCLONIC
RISK FOR THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER, AS ITS
TRACK BRINGS IT CLOSER TO THE MASCARENES, A DEGRADATION OF WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE.
THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN ABOUT FARAJI.
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