From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Feb 21 23:10:00 2021
WTPQ30 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 10.5N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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