• Pacific-NW: TS Dujuan R20

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sun Feb 21 23:10:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 211800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 10.5N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
    PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
    SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
    INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
    HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
    MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
    SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
    CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
    BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
    NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
    INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
    OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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