Indian-S: ITC Habana W13
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Mar 5 18:58:00 2021
WTIO30 FMEE 051820
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)
2.A POSITION 2021/03/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 77.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/06 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
24H: 2021/03/06 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
36H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
48H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
60H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
72H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
120H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, HABANA'S EYE PATTERN HA STRENGTHENED WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A VERY CIRCULAR AND CLEAR EYE. THE
SYSTEM'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 110KT IN COHERENCE WITH THE
DVORAK ESTIMATION. THE 1134Z AND 1358Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGES SHOWED A
VERY SOLD INNER CORE STRUCTURE, BUT ALSO AN EXTERNAL BAND COMING
CLOSER TO THE INNER CORE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AT THIS STAGE,
THE OCCURRENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OVER THE NEXT HOURS IS
LIKELY AND THIS PATTERN MIGHT REPRESENT THE FIRST STAGE OF THIS
PROCESS.
IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, HABANA WILL KEEP ON HEADING EASTWARDS
THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS DRIVEN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS THE NAER EQUATORIAL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GROWING IN THE SOUTH-EAST. THE STRONG DISPERSION
AMONGST THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE
A RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
WESTWARD U-TURN.
HABANA STILL ENCOUNTERS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR IT TO MAINTAIN OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASE ITS INTENSITY : STRONG OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL,
LOW SHEAR AND A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. THIS WEEK-END, A MODERATE
NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD APPEAR AND COULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION AND
EVEN SLIGHTLY WEAKEN IT GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE MAKING IT MORE SENSIBLE
TO EXTERNAL FORCINGS. FROM MONDAY HOWEVER, CONDITIONS BECOME TOTALLY
FAVORABLE AGAIN WITH EVEN AN INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE TUESDAY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO HABANA'S SMALL SIZE AND BY
THE LIKELY OCCURENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OVER THE NEXT
DAYS.
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From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Mar 6 17:54:00 2021
WTIO30 FMEE 061906
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)
2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 78.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35
24H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35
36H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
48H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
60H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45
72H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
120H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0 CI=6.5-
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE HABANA EYE CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN RATHER
STABLE. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING TREND
SEEMS TO BE TAKING PLACE WITH THE EYE LOSING DEFINITION AND LESS
EXTENSION OF THE COLDEST PEAKS. WITH A SMAP SWATH AROUND 13Z
INDICATING WINDS AT 111 KT, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 110 KT.
NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST MADE BY THE RSMC:
HABANA IS FOLLOWING A TRACK IN A GENERAL EAST-SOUTH DIRECTION,
GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AT THE END OF SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE GRADUALLY
TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
IS RE-INFLATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METEOR. THERE IS STILL A
STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD.
HABANA ENCOUNTERS A BIT OF NORTHEAST SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE, BUT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IT COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO A WEAKENING TREND. HABANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY AND IT
IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A COOLING OF THE SST MAY OCCUR. DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR SEEMS TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SECTORS. HABANA SHOULD NEVERTHELESS MAINTAIN A STRONG
INTENSITY OVER THE PERIOD, SINCE WITH THE RESUMPTION OF THE WESTWARD
MOTION THE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR AND A GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE. INTENSITY PREDICTION IS
MADE UNCERTAIN BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE POSSIBLE
OCCURRENCE OF AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT CANNOT BE
ANTICIPATED VERY FAR IN ADVANCE.
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