Indian-S: TD 14 W6 (91S)
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Fri Mar 5 19:00:00 2021
WTIO30 FMEE 051849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/14/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14
2.A POSITION 2021/03/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 46.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/06 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2021/03/06 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 20 SW: 10 NW: 85
36H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65
48H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
60H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 75 NW: 95
72H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 29.9 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING OVER LAND. CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER, HWICH SEEMS TO KEEP A RATHER GOOD
COHERENCE FOR NOW. DIVERGENCE REMAINS EXCELLENT POLEWARD.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA SOUTH OF TAMATAVE TOMORROW
SATURDAY IN THE LATE MORNING, BEFORE TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AHEAD
OF A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A PASSAGE AT MORE THAN 100 KM IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION
ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING, EVEN IF MEDIUM UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE
EXACT TRACK. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CAPTURED BY A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BRING IT SOUTH OF 25S, FAR FROM THE
INHABITED ISLANDS, ALONG A SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS
TRACK. AT THE END OF THE TAUS, THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
TRAPPED NORTH OF 30S WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW HIGH PRESSURE CELL
FROM THE WEST.
AS IT WILL COME BACK OVER SEA TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER
CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY MORE BAROCLINIC IN
INTERACTION WITH A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. AT FIRST, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AND COULD REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE BY SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE MID
AND UPPER FLOWS. FROM MONDAY, THE INCREASE OF THE SHEAR AND THE
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATERS SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A
POST-TROPICAL LOW.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR, RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24HRS CLOUD
REACH 100 TO 150 MM LOCALLY OVER THE CENTER-WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND FAR INLAND.
FOR THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF WEATHER
DEGRADATION IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING.
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