Indian-S: ITC Habana W12
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Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat Mar 6 10:24:00 2021
WTIO30 FMEE 061216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)
2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 78.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 45
24H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
36H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
48H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 45
60H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
72H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
120H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 60
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE HABANA'S EYE PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
BUT PRESENTS A LITTLE MORE FLUCTUATIONS WITH NOTABLY AN EYE THAT
COOLS DOWN, LOWERING A LITTLE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS. BY INERTIA, WE CAN
STILL ESTIMATE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 110KT BUT IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT
HABANA WILL WEAKEN SOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR FOR THE MOMENT ANY SIGN
OF REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL, BUT THE SLIGHT INCREASE OF WIND
SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS COULD EXPLAIN THIS SLIGHT TENDENCY TO WEAKEN
HABANA.
NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST MADE BY THE RSMC:
HABANA IS FOLLOWING A TRACK IN A GENERAL EAST-SOUTH DIRECTION,
GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AT THE END OF SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE GRADUALLY
TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
IS RE-INFLATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METEOR. THERE IS STILL A
STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD.
NO CHANGE EITHER ON THE SCENARIO CHOSEN BY THE RSMC, IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY FORECAST. HABANA CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EXCELLENT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, CONDUCIVE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF ITS HIGH
INTENSITY (HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LITTLE SHEAR AND STRONG ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE). DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR SEEMS TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM
FROM THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS, BUT SINCE THE MODELS DO NOT
PENETRATE THIS DRY AIR INTO THE CORE DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR,
HABANA SHOULD MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY. HOWEVER, IN THE SHORT TERM,
A MODERATE SHEAR IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR WILL COME INTO PLACE AND
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY, ITS SMALL SIZE MAKING IT MORE VULNERABLE
TO EXTERNAL FORCES. FROM MONDAY, CONDITIONS BECOME FULLY FAVORABLE
AGAIN, WITH EVEN A RENEWED DIVERGENCE STARTING ON TUESDAY. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MADE UNCERTAIN BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
AND BY THE PROBABLE OCCURRENCE OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE
WALL, WHICH EXPLAINS THE VARIATIONS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
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