• Indian-S: ITC Habana W12

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Mar 6 10:24:00 2021
    WTIO30 FMEE 061216
    RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

    0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/13/20202021
    1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

    2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:
    WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 78.3 E
    (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
    SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
    MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

    3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

    4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
    5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
    RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

    6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
    34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 75
    48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
    64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

    7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
    8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

    1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
    12H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
    TROPICAL CYCLONE
    28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 120
    34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
    48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 65
    64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 45

    24H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
    TROPICAL CYCLONE
    28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
    34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 95
    48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
    64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

    36H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
    TROPICAL CYCLONE
    28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 140
    34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 100
    48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
    64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

    48H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
    TROPICAL CYCLONE
    28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 130
    34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
    48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
    64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 45

    60H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
    TROPICAL CYCLONE
    28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 150
    34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95
    48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
    64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

    72H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
    TROPICAL CYCLONE
    28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 130
    34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
    48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
    64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

    2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
    96H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
    TROPICAL CYCLONE
    28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
    34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110
    48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
    64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

    120H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
    TROPICAL CYCLONE
    28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 150
    34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
    48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70
    64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 60

    2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE HABANA'S EYE PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
    BUT PRESENTS A LITTLE MORE FLUCTUATIONS WITH NOTABLY AN EYE THAT
    COOLS DOWN, LOWERING A LITTLE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS. BY INERTIA, WE CAN
    STILL ESTIMATE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 110KT BUT IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT
    HABANA WILL WEAKEN SOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR FOR THE MOMENT ANY SIGN
    OF REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL, BUT THE SLIGHT INCREASE OF WIND
    SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS COULD EXPLAIN THIS SLIGHT TENDENCY TO WEAKEN
    HABANA.

    NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST MADE BY THE RSMC:
    HABANA IS FOLLOWING A TRACK IN A GENERAL EAST-SOUTH DIRECTION,
    GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
    EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AT THE END OF SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
    WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE GRADUALLY
    TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
    IS RE-INFLATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METEOR. THERE IS STILL A
    STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
    LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD.

    NO CHANGE EITHER ON THE SCENARIO CHOSEN BY THE RSMC, IN TERMS OF
    INTENSITY FORECAST. HABANA CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EXCELLENT
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, CONDUCIVE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF ITS HIGH
    INTENSITY (HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LITTLE SHEAR AND STRONG ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE). DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR SEEMS TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM
    FROM THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS, BUT SINCE THE MODELS DO NOT
    PENETRATE THIS DRY AIR INTO THE CORE DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR,
    HABANA SHOULD MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY. HOWEVER, IN THE SHORT TERM,
    A MODERATE SHEAR IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR WILL COME INTO PLACE AND
    WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY, ITS SMALL SIZE MAKING IT MORE VULNERABLE
    TO EXTERNAL FORCES. FROM MONDAY, CONDITIONS BECOME FULLY FAVORABLE
    AGAIN, WITH EVEN A RENEWED DIVERGENCE STARTING ON TUESDAY. THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST IS MADE UNCERTAIN BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
    AND BY THE PROBABLE OCCURRENCE OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE
    WALL, WHICH EXPLAINS THE VARIATIONS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
    =
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