• FIJI: STC Niran Cat3 TDA4

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Mar 6 10:27:00 2021
    WTPS11 NFFN 061200 CCA
    TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
    Mar 061344 UTC.

    SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NIRAN CENTRE 966HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0S
    169.2E AT 061200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND
    PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
    32 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
    AT ABOUT 75 KNOTS.

    EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
    AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
    AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
    AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
    EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 95 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
    AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
    AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
    AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
    EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
    AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
    AND WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
    AND WITHIN 125 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT


    SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NIRAN CONTINUES ITS RAPID EAST SOUTHEAST
    TRACK WITH AN EMBEDDED CENTER. CONVECTION IS REDUCED IN RADIAL EXTENT
    WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD BUT LLCC IN AREA OF
    MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SST AROUND 27 DEGRESS CELCIUS.
    SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED EAST SOUTHEAST BY THE
    WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN. DVORAK BASED ON EMBEDDED PATTERN
    WITH CENTRE EMBEDDED IN OW AND NO BANDING FEATURE YIELDING DT 3.5.
    MET 4.0 & PT 4.0. FT BASED ON MET THUS T4.0/4.5/W2.0/24HRS.

    FORECASTS :
    AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 26.6S 174.8E MOV ESE AT 29 KT WITH 60
    KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
    AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 29.0S 179.4W MOV ESE AT 28 KT WITH 40
    KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

    OUTLOOK :
    AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 30.6S 174.3W MOV ESE AT 27 KT WITH 35
    KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
    AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 31.6S 170.4W MOV ESE AT 24 KT WITH 30
    KT CLOSE TO CENTRE


    THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NIRAN.
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)