From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Mar 6 10:27:00 2021
WTPS11 NFFN 061200 CCA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 061344 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NIRAN CENTRE 966HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0S
169.2E AT 061200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
32 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 75 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 95 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 125 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NIRAN CONTINUES ITS RAPID EAST SOUTHEAST
TRACK WITH AN EMBEDDED CENTER. CONVECTION IS REDUCED IN RADIAL EXTENT
WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD BUT LLCC IN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SST AROUND 27 DEGRESS CELCIUS.
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED EAST SOUTHEAST BY THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN. DVORAK BASED ON EMBEDDED PATTERN
WITH CENTRE EMBEDDED IN OW AND NO BANDING FEATURE YIELDING DT 3.5.
MET 4.0 & PT 4.0. FT BASED ON MET THUS T4.0/4.5/W2.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 26.6S 174.8E MOV ESE AT 29 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 29.0S 179.4W MOV ESE AT 28 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 30.6S 174.3W MOV ESE AT 27 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 31.6S 170.4W MOV ESE AT 24 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NIRAN.
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