• Aust: TC Seroja 051946

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Apr 5 16:31:00 2021
    AXAU01 APRF 051947
    IDW27600
    TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
    Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
    at: 1946 UTC 05/04/2021

    Name: Tropical Cyclone Seroja
    Identifier: 22U
    Data At: 1800 UTC
    Latitude: 11.3S
    Longitude: 120.4E
    Location Accuracy: within 35 nm [65 km]
    Movement Towards: west southwest [251 deg]
    Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
    Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
    Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
    Central Pressure: 982 hPa
    Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
    Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    Radius of 64-knot winds:
    Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
    Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/HRS
    Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
    Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]

    FORECAST DATA
    Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
    [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    +06: 06/0000: 11.6S 119.6E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 982
    +12: 06/0600: 12.0S 118.9E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 981
    +18: 06/1200: 12.4S 118.3E: 065 [120]: 060 [110]: 978
    +24: 06/1800: 12.8S 117.6E: 070 [130]: 060 [110]: 976
    +36: 07/0600: 14.0S 116.0E: 085 [160]: 065 [120]: 973
    +48: 07/1800: 15.4S 114.1E: 120 [225]: 070 [130]: 969
    +60: 08/0600: 16.8S 112.4E: 150 [275]: 075 [140]: 964
    +72: 08/1800: 18.0S 111.2E: 170 [310]: 080 [150]: 960
    +96: 09/1800: 20.1S 109.9E: 245 [455]: 065 [120]: 971
    +120: 10/1800: 23.0S 109.8E: 285 [530]: 050 [095]: 982

    REMARKS:
    Tropical Cyclone Seroja has been slowly moving towards the west-southwest, further away from the Indonesian archipelago. Infra-red satellite imagery have resulted in fair confidence in the analysis location.

    Dvorak analysis at 18UTC, FT 3.5 is determined from PAT with D 24hr trend.
    IMSS
    and NOAA ADT had CI of 3.4 and 3.2 respectively. The latest SATCON was 54 knots at 1636 UTC, which is lower than the previous 69 knots at 11UTC. Final intensity 55 knots.

    CIMMS shear reports ESE 20 knots at 18 UTC. Shear is expected to remain between 10 and 20 knots until late on Wednesday when it is forecast to decrease. SSTs are around 30 degrees and there is abundant moisture currently. Some guidance indicates the presence of drier air to east of the system on Tuesday. This combined with the ongoing low to moderate E'ly shear may inhibit intensification over the next 48 hours or so.

    Some of the latest model guidance indicates a lower peak intensity during Tuesday and Wednesday compared to previous model runs. The forecast has been adjusted slightly lower, but a gradual intensification is still forecast.

    Steady southwest movement is forecast as the mid-level ridge strengthens to the south, taking the system away from the Indonesian archipelago. A track, well off but roughly parallel to the WA coastline is forecast.

    Interaction with another tropical system to the west [23U] results in a high level of uncertainty for the extended forecast [track and intensity]. A range of
    scenarios exist including Seroja remaining offshore, well off the WA coastline, to impacts over the far west Pilbara coast or a later impact along the upper west coast of WA.

    Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    ==
    The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0130 UTC.
    &&
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