From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Mon Apr 19 18:05:00 2021
WTPQ30 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 15.1N, 126.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
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