Indian-S: MTS Jobo W12
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All on Thu Apr 22 16:36:00 2021
WTIO30 FMEE 221901
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)
2.A POSITION 2021/04/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4 S / 44.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/23 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0
24H: 2021/04/23 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0
36H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 7.9 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0
48H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.4 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 6.9 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST HAS FORMED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH PARTICULARLY COLD
TOPS. HOWEVER, THIS EVOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE RELATED TO A
POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTHENING MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR. THE 1701Z AND 1815Z ASCAT SWATHS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF A VERY ELONGATED AND
ASYMMETRIC SURFACE CIRCULATION.
IN TERMS OF TRACK, JOBO IS HEADING NORTHWEST, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
THE SPREAD AMONG THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
DECREASING.THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN SCENARIOS.
JOBO SHOULD PASS TOMORROW BETWEEN 150 AND 300KM NORTH OF GRANDE
COMORE. ON SATURDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM COULD LAND OVER
TANZANIA NEAR DAR ES SALAM.
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD FAVOR THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM FAVORED BY
ITS SMALL SIZE. THEREAFTER, JOBO SHOULD NOT FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
AND SHOULD DISAPPEAR NEAR THE TANZANIAN COAST. THE SMALL SIZE OF JOBO
INDUCES A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRESENT INTENSITY
FORECAST.
IN TERMS OF FORECAST IMPACTS, HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE
ISLANDS OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO IN THE MARGIN OF THE STORM, UP TO
100 TO 200MM IN 24H, UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
MODEST AROUND 60 KM/H.FOR TANZANIA, WITH THE PROBABLE DISSIPATION OF
THE JOBO SYSTEM AT LANDING, THE IMPACTS COULD REMAIN LIMITED.
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