Pacific-NW: TD03 Final
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sat May 15 09:48:00 2021
WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 8.4N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 121.7E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 9.2N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.1N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 121.0E.
14MAY21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
374 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER A
POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR PALAWAN
ISLAND. TD 03W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED
TO THE NORTH. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. TD 03W WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 DUE TO INCREASING VWS (20-
25 KNOTS) AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 8 FEET.//
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