Pacific-EN: I92E Formatio
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Mon Jun 7 15:54:00 2021
WTPN21 PHNC 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060251Z JUN 21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 109.1W TO 11.9N 112.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 109.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 107.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 109.5W, APPROXIMATELY
1249 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 062309Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SUPPORTING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM HAS A SHORT
WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT WILL MOVE INTO AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR AND
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SHOULD THE SYSTEM
FORM, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 060300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080300Z.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)