From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Jun 26 10:00:00 2021
WTPQ30 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR STS 2105 CHAMPI (2105)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHAMPI IS LOCATED AT 26.9N, 140.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
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