• Storm Prediction Center 11 07

    From LU9DCE@21:5/101 to ALERT on Thu Jul 11 08:10:22 2019
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    SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202
    AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREAT
    LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS WELL AS A SMALL PART OF
    THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
    ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing a risk for isolated
    damaging gusts are expected to develop across parts of the upper
    Ohio Valley, lower Great Lakes region, and Mid Atlantic Thursday
    afternoon into the evening. A couple of severe storms with damaging
    wind and large hail may also occur from northeast North Dakota into
    northwest Minnesota.
    ...Great Lakes through Ohio Valley into the Middle Atlantic...
    Diabatic heating of the moist surface layer should result in moderate instability over much of this region during the afternoon with MLCAPE
    from 1500-2000 J/kg but with weak mid-level lapse rates. A cold
    front will accompany a weakening upper trough through the Great Lakes
    and OH Valley during the day, providing a focus for thunderstorm
    initiation. Other storms will likely develop in the pre-frontal warm
    sector including over the higher terrain and in association with a
    lee trough over the Middle Atlantic. Wind profiles accompanying the
    upper trough will remain relatively weak with 20-30 kt effective bulk
    shear supportive of multicells. As low-level lapse rates steepen,
    the environment will become supportive of a few locally strong to
    damaging wind gusts, and storms may eventually evolve into line
    segments or clusters before weakening during the early evening.
    ...Northeast North Dakota through northwest Minnesota...
    A mid-level speed max within the base of a low-amplitude shortwave
    trough will move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley
    this afternoon and evening accompanied by a cold front. Dewpoints
    will remain generally in the low to mid 60s in the pre-frontal
    warm sector, and a plume of steeper (7-7.5 C/km) mid-level lapse
    rates will overspread this region supporting 1500 J/kg MLCAPE as
    the surface layer warms. Tendency will be for the deeper forcing
    for ascent to remain north of the international border which, given
    likelihood of a modest capping inversion along eastern periphery of
    elevated mixed layer, suggests storm coverage could remain limited. Nevertheless, a belt of stronger flow accompanying the upper jet
    will contribute to 45+ kt effective bulk shear supportive of storm
    organization including supercells with any storms that manage to
    develop. Large hail and damaging wind will be the main threats,
    primarily from late afternoon into mid evening.
    ...Louisiana and southeast Texas coastal regions...
    Tropical disturbance over the north central Gulf of Mexico is
    forecast to strengthen to a tropical depression today as it moves
    in a slow westerly to west northwesterly direction. See latest
    advisories from NHC for more information. Low-level vertical shear
    within the northern semicircle along the LA coast should undergo
    some increase. Storms developing within this environment may produce
    locally strong wind gusts along with a low risk for a brief tornado.
    Overall threat still appears marginal for this period.
    ...Southern High Plains...
    A few storms will likely develop within the upslope regime over
    the higher terrain of NM and spread southeast into the high Plains
    of NM and west TX where inverted-V boundary layers will support a
    threat for downburst winds from late afternoon through early evening. ..Dial/Wendt.. 07/11/2019
    SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
    Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150
    PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
    NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...
    ...SUMMARY... A developing hurricane may pose a risk for a
    couple of tornadoes across parts of southeastern Louisiana,
    southern Mississippi and, perhaps, southwestern Alabama Friday
    into Friday night. Otherwise, widely scattered strong storms may
    impact a corridor across parts of the northern Plains into the
    Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, as well as portions of the
    southern Mid Atlantic Coast region, accompanied by at least some
    risk for severe weather.
    ...Synopsis... Little change to the general large-scale pattern is
    expected into and through this period. A broad area of mid-level
    subtropical ridging, centered over the southern Rockies, likely
    will remain prominent across much of the Great Basin and Southwest,
    Rockies and Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley, Friday
    through Friday night.
    Southeast of this ridging, and west of elongated mid-level ridging
    across the subtropical Atlantic, a tropical cyclone is forecast to
    intensify into a hurricane over the north central Gulf of Mexico,
    to the south of the Louisiana coast.
    Meanwhile, within the mid-latitude westerlies, large-scale troughing
    may linger over the northeast Pacific, while broadly anticyclonic
    flow prevails inland of the Pacific Northwest coast through the
    central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Ridging across parts of
    the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region is expected to become
    suppressed by a fairly vigorous short wave trough as it digs across
    northern Ontario and the Lake Superior through Lake Huron/Georgian
    Bay vicinity. Downstream troughing, initially extending across the
    northern through middle Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to progress
    offshore and northeastward through the eastern Canadian provinces.
    ...North central Gulf coast... Intensification of the tropical
    cyclone into a hurricane will be accompanied by sufficient
    strengthening of low-level wind fields and shear to support a risk
    of tornadoes in associated convective bands, where the boundary
    layer has an opportunity to destabilize. This risk probably will
    become maximized north and east of the circulation, in the right
    front quadrant relative to its slow west-northwestward motion.
    This could impact areas inland of the north central Gulf coast
    during the daytime hours, but may become focused closer to the
    coast Friday night as the center approaches land.
    ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Ahead of
    a cold front associated with the Ontario short wave trough, models
    indicate that a corridor of stronger surface heating, within a
    relatively moist boundary layer, may contribute to moderate to
    large CAPE (ranging from 1000-3000+ J/kg) by Friday afternoon.
    Although it still appears that much of this region will be displaced
    to the south/southwest of the mid-level forcing for ascent, at least
    widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm development
    is possible. If this occurs, modest northwesterly mid-level flow
    may contribute to sufficient shear for organized storms, perhaps
    including supercells, posing mainly a risk for severe hail and wind.
    ...Mid Missouri Valley into northern Rockies... Moistening easterly
    near surface flow across the high Plains, near /north of the Black
    Hills into areas near/north of the Bighorns, in the presence of
    steepening lapse rates, may contribute to moderate CAPE by Friday
    afternoon. Perhaps aided by forcing for ascent associated with
    subtle perturbations migrating around the northern periphery of the
    subtropical ridging, widely scattered thunderstorms may initiate
    across the higher terrain. This activity is expected to subsequently
    propagate east-southeastward, and eventually become focused along
    the mid-level thermal gradient to the north of a plume of capping
    elevated mixed-layer air extending into the mid Missouri Valley.
    Deep-layer shear, aided by pronounced veering of winds with height
    beneath modest westerly mid-level flow, could be sufficient to
    support isolated supercells and perhaps one or two small organizing
    clusters of storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind.
    ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Although deep-layer shear may be rather
    weak, daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing may contribute
    to moderate to large CAPE within surface troughing across North
    Carolina and adjacent portions of southern Virginia and northern
    South Carolina. This may provide the focus for considerable
    thunderstorms development, with thermodynamic profiles conducive to
    localized downbursts and strengthening surface cold pools that could
    pose a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts Friday afternoon
    and evening.
    ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
    5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
    ..Kerr.. 07/11/2019
    SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0115 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
    ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
    UTAH...
    ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain over the Four
    Corners today with monsoonal moisture continuing its northward
    push into the Desert Southwest and Great Basin. A very dry
    airmass with afternoon RH of 10-15% has been in place for the last
    several days helping to further cure heavier fuels. Isolated to
    scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the western
    periphery of the upper-level ridge across the Mogollon Rim into
    the southern/central Utah mountains. Model guidance has been
    consistent with subtle shortwave troughs rounding the upper-level
    ridge which will support an increase in storm coverage in some
    locations. Scattered dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in
    portions of southern/central Utah. In these highlighted locations,
    ERCs have reached near the 90th percentile or greater with 100-hour
    fuel moisture now below the 10th percentile. Mid-level moisture
    will be high enough for scattered coverage, but very deep and dry
    sub-cloud layers should prevent most rainfall from reaching the
    surface. Portions of northern Utah may see borderline scattered
    coverage of storms, but fuel receptiveness is somewhat more in
    question. Farther south, PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches will lead
    to more of mixed wet/dry storm mode.
    ..Wendt.. 07/11/2019
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0151 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
    ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will persist in the Four
    Corners region with perhaps slight progression to the east
    on D2/Friday. Increasing monsoonal moisture will again lead to
    isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development within
    much of central/northern Arizona, portions of eastern Nevada, and
    Utah. Boundary layer moisture will increase slightly across the
    highlighted area, though afternoon RH will still fall to 10-20%. A
    subtle shortwave or two will help to enhance lift and thunderstorm
    coverage across northwest Arizona into central Utah. Potential for
    scattered coverage will be highest in these locations. However,
    portions of northwest Arizona will likely have received some
    wetting rainfall on Thursday with similar potential for wetting
    storms on Friday. Consideration was given to adding a scattered dry thunderstorm area for portions of southern/central Utah (similar to
    Thursday), but confidence is lowered due to a more shallow sub-cloud layer/higher boundary layer RH.
    ..Wendt.. 07/11/2019
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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    ACHTUNG!!!

    Das machine is nicht fur gefingerpoken und mittengrabben. Ist easy schnappen der springenwerk, blowenfusen und corkenpoppen mit spitzensparken. Ist nicht fur gewerken by das dummkopfen. Das rubbernecken sightseeren keepen hands
    in das pockets. Relaxen und vatch das blinkenlights!!!

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