• Storm Prediction Center 21 07

    From LU9DCE@21:5/101 to ALERT on Sun Jul 21 08:10:13 2019
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    ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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    SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249
    AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...
    ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts
    and isolated hail are possible from the central Plains eastward
    into the Lower Missouri Valley today.
    ...Central Plains...Lower MO Valley... Recent surface analysis
    places a low near the CO/KS/OK border intersection. A composite boundary/stationary front extends northeastward from this low across
    KS to another low near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. Ongoing
    convective line across MO has modified the boundary across northern
    MO, pushing it southward into central MO. MCV associated with
    ongoing showers and thunderstorms across southeast CO and western
    KS is expected to track northeastward along or just north of this
    stationary front early this morning and likely play a role in
    convective development this afternoon. Poor performance within the
    guidance of convectively induced, meso-beta scale features suggests
    its evolution is uncertain. Current expectation is for the MCV to
    drift northeastward early this morning before then turning more
    eastward in response to the shortwave trough dropping through the
    northern Plains. Thunderstorm development is then anticipated
    along the southern periphery of this MCV across northeast KS and
    southeast NE. Previously mentioned stationary front as well as
    modified outflow may also be in this area, providing additional
    foci for convective initiation.
    The air mass where this convective initiation is expected to occur
    will be warm (temperatures in the 90s), very moist (dewpoints
    in the low to mid 70s), and strongly buoyant (MLCAPE over 2500
    J/kg). As a result, strong updrafts are anticipated. Vertical
    shear will be modest, so the initial development will likely become outflow-dominant quickly, with subsequent development anticipated on
    the resulting cold pool. Strong wind gusts are the primary severe
    threat but some hail is possible with the early development.
    Presence of several surface boundaries suggests there is a low
    probability tornado threat as well.
    ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Weak surface convergence along a
    slow-moving cold front amidst very warm and moist conditions is
    expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms from the
    mid MS Valley across the OH Valley. Vertical shear will be very
    weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Even so, a few
    water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Maine... A subtle speed max/low-amplitude shortwave trough
    is currently moving into the Lower Great Lakes. Lift associated
    with this shortwave is likely contributing to the areas of light
    reflectivity from Lake Ontario southward into north-central PA. This
    shortwave is expected to continue northeastward, reaching Maine later
    this morning. Modest theta-e advection is expected ahead of this
    shortwave, contributing to enough instability for thunderstorms. A
    few severe storms are probable, with strong wind gusts as the
    primary threat. Some isolated large hail is also possible.
    ...Central High Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to initially
    develop across the higher terrain before moving out into the moist
    post-frontal air mass across the region. Easterly/northeasterly
    low-level flow beneath the northwesterly flow aloft will contribute
    to moderate vertical shear (highest across northern portions of
    the region) and the potential for a few stronger, more organized
    storms capable of strong wind gusts and isolated hail.
    ..Mosier/Bentley.. 07/21/2019
    SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
    Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257
    AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
    OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
    NEW ENGLAND STATES...
    ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Ohio
    and Tennessee Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic states and southern
    New England Monday and Monday night.
    ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the mid/upper-level
    flow is expected Monday with a pronounced trough extending
    from the Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee Valley region.
    An upper-level anticyclone will remain anchored in the vicinity of
    the Four Corners region throughout the day. A surface cold front
    will extend southwest from coastal sections of southern New England
    through the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region and into central TX late
    Monday afternoon. A diffuse low will lift northeast along the front
    from northern VA across coastal southern New England Monday night.
    ...Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic west to the Ohio/Tennessee
    Valley region... Substantial cloud cover/on-going showers and
    thunderstorms are expected Monday morning near the surface front
    across the OH/TN Valley region. Nevertheless, diurnal heating of
    a very moist air mass south of the front (upper 60s to locally mid
    70s dew points) will result in moderate instability west of the
    Appalachians and pockets of strong instability closer to the coast.
    Modest strengthening of low/mid-level wind fields will occur as the
    upper trough amplifies, resulting in 30-35 kts of deep-layer shear
    near the front from northern VA/eastern PA northeast into southern
    New England, with 20-25 kts farther southwest. Organized multicell thunderstorms developing along the front and moving off the higher
    terrain will have the potential to produce isolated damaging
    gusts given steep low-level lapse rates and PW values in excess of
    1.75 inches.
    ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5%
    - Marginal Hail: <5% - None
    ..Bunting.. 07/21/2019
    SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0106 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
    ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
    ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge is building over the western
    CONUS today which will expand hot and dry conditions northward
    into Oregon and Idaho. However, this will also continue weak flow
    across most of the region which should limit the overall fire weather
    concern. Localized elevated conditions may be possible in southern
    Nevada due to weak downslope flow from a mid-level impulse moving
    through the area, but winds will be too marginal to add an elevated
    fire weather area.
    ..Bentley.. 07/21/2019
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0107 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
    ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will start to shift eastward
    on Monday with some increasing mid-level southwesterly flow on
    the western periphery of the ridge. This will overspread 30 to
    40 knot mid-level flow from northern California into the Pacific
    Northwest. Some of these stronger winds are expected to mix toward
    the surface, especially where downslope flow is maximized in the lee
    of the Sierras. The two primary areas with the greatest chance for
    elevated conditions will be from northeast California northeastward
    into southeast Oregon and in west central Nevada. Some locally
    critical conditions may be possible in west-central Nevada, but
    the risk area is too localized at this time to draw a threat area.
    In addition, some dry lightning is possible from northern California northeastward to near the Continental Divide in eastern Idaho/western
    Montana. Storms appear to be more isolated and perhaps a bit more
    wet in CA/OR and are expected to be more widespread and dry in the
    northern Rockies. No dry thunderstorm area has been drawn at this
    time, but trends will continue to be monitored to see if an area
    needs to be added for some or all of this region in future outlooks. ..Bentley.. 07/21/2019
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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    Excellent time to become a missing person.

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